Daily Papers

Self-supervised pre-training based on next-token prediction has enabled large language models to capture the underlying structure of text, and has led to unprecedented performance on a large array of tasks when applied at scale. Similarly, autonomous driving generates vast amounts of spatiotemporal data, alluding to the possibility of harnessing scale to learn the underlying geometric and semantic structure of the environment and its evolution over time. In this direction, we propose a geometric and semantic self-supervised pre-training method, GASP, that learns a unified representation by predicting, at any queried future point in spacetime, (1) general occupancy, capturing the evolving structure of the 3D scene; (2) ego occupancy, modeling the ego vehicle path through the environment; and (3) distilled high-level features from a vision foundation model. By modeling geometric and semantic 4D occupancy fields instead of raw sensor measurements, the model learns a structured, generalizable representation of the environment and its evolution through time. We validate GASP on multiple autonomous driving benchmarks, demonstrating significant improvements in semantic occupancy forecasting, online mapping, and ego trajectory prediction. Our results demonstrate that continuous 4D geometric and semantic occupancy prediction provides a scalable and effective pre-training paradigm for autonomous driving. For code and additional visualizations, see \href{https://research.zenseact.com/publications/gasp/.

3D semantic occupancy prediction is an emerging perception paradigm in autonomous driving, providing a voxel-level representation of both geometric details and semantic categories. However, its effectiveness is inherently constrained in single-vehicle setups by occlusions, restricted sensor range, and narrow viewpoints. To address these limitations, collaborative perception enables the exchange of complementary information, thereby enhancing the completeness and accuracy of predictions. Despite its potential, research on collaborative 3D semantic occupancy prediction is hindered by the lack of dedicated datasets. To bridge this gap, we design a high-resolution semantic voxel sensor in CARLA to produce dense and comprehensive annotations. We further develop a baseline model that performs inter-agent feature fusion via spatial alignment and attention aggregation. In addition, we establish benchmarks with varying prediction ranges designed to systematically assess the impact of spatial extent on collaborative prediction. Experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of our baseline, with increasing gains observed as range expands. Our code is available at https://github.com/tlab-wide/Co3SOP}{https://github.com/tlab-wide/Co3SOP.

Semantic occupancy has emerged as a powerful representation in world models for its ability to capture rich spatial semantics. However, most existing occupancy world models rely on static and fixed embeddings or grids, which inherently limit the flexibility of perception. Moreover, their ``in-place classification" over grids exhibits a potential misalignment with the dynamic and continuous nature of real scenarios. In this paper, we propose SparseWorld, a novel 4D occupancy world model that is flexible, adaptive, and efficient, powered by sparse and dynamic queries. We propose a Range-Adaptive Perception module, in which learnable queries are modulated by the ego vehicle states and enriched with temporal-spatial associations to enable extended-range perception. To effectively capture the dynamics of the scene, we design a State-Conditioned Forecasting module, which replaces classification-based forecasting with regression-guided formulation, precisely aligning the dynamic queries with the continuity of the 4D environment. In addition, We specifically devise a Temporal-Aware Self-Scheduling training strategy to enable smooth and efficient training. Extensive experiments demonstrate that SparseWorld achieves state-of-the-art performance across perception, forecasting, and planning tasks. Comprehensive visualizations and ablation studies further validate the advantages of SparseWorld in terms of flexibility, adaptability, and efficiency.

Training deep learning models for semantic occupancy prediction is challenging due to factors such as a large number of occupancy cells, severe occlusion, limited visual cues, complicated driving scenarios, etc. Recent methods often adopt transformer-based architectures given their strong capability in learning input-conditioned weights and long-range relationships. However, transformer-based networks are notorious for their quadratic computation complexity, seriously undermining their efficacy and deployment in semantic occupancy prediction. Inspired by the global modeling and linear computation complexity of the Mamba architecture, we present the first Mamba-based network for semantic occupancy prediction, termed OccMamba. Specifically, we first design the hierarchical Mamba module and local context processor to better aggregate global and local contextual information, respectively. Besides, to relieve the inherent domain gap between the linguistic and 3D domains, we present a simple yet effective 3D-to-1D reordering scheme, i.e., height-prioritized 2D Hilbert expansion. It can maximally retain the spatial structure of 3D voxels as well as facilitate the processing of Mamba blocks. Endowed with the aforementioned designs, our OccMamba is capable of directly and efficiently processing large volumes of dense scene grids, achieving state-of-the-art performance across three prevalent occupancy prediction benchmarks, including OpenOccupancy, SemanticKITTI, and SemanticPOSS. Notably, on OpenOccupancy, our OccMamba outperforms the previous state-of-the-art Co-Occ by 5.1% IoU and 4.3% mIoU, respectively. Our implementation is open-sourced and available at: https://github.com/USTCLH/OccMamba.

We introduce UniOcc, a comprehensive, unified benchmark for occupancy forecasting (i.e., predicting future occupancies based on historical information) and current-frame occupancy prediction from camera images. UniOcc unifies data from multiple real-world datasets (i.e., nuScenes, Waymo) and high-fidelity driving simulators (i.e., CARLA, OpenCOOD), which provides 2D/3D occupancy labels with per-voxel flow annotations and support for cooperative autonomous driving. In terms of evaluation, unlike existing studies that rely on suboptimal pseudo labels for evaluation, UniOcc incorporates novel metrics that do not depend on ground-truth occupancy, enabling robust assessment of additional aspects of occupancy quality. Through extensive experiments on state-of-the-art models, we demonstrate that large-scale, diverse training data and explicit flow information significantly enhance occupancy prediction and forecasting performance.

Collaborative perception in automated vehicles leverages the exchange of information between agents, aiming to elevate perception results. Previous camera-based collaborative 3D perception methods typically employ 3D bounding boxes or bird's eye views as representations of the environment. However, these approaches fall short in offering a comprehensive 3D environmental prediction. To bridge this gap, we introduce the first method for collaborative 3D semantic occupancy prediction. Particularly, it improves local 3D semantic occupancy predictions by hybrid fusion of (i) semantic and occupancy task features, and (ii) compressed orthogonal attention features shared between vehicles. Additionally, due to the lack of a collaborative perception dataset designed for semantic occupancy prediction, we augment a current collaborative perception dataset to include 3D collaborative semantic occupancy labels for a more robust evaluation. The experimental findings highlight that: (i) our collaborative semantic occupancy predictions excel above the results from single vehicles by over 30%, and (ii) models anchored on semantic occupancy outpace state-of-the-art collaborative 3D detection techniques in subsequent perception applications, showcasing enhanced accuracy and enriched semantic-awareness in road environments.

Recently, there has been a growing interest in leveraging pre-trained large language models (LLMs) for various time series applications. However, the semantic space of LLMs, established through the pre-training, is still underexplored and may help yield more distinctive and informative representations to facilitate time series forecasting. To this end, we propose Semantic Space Informed Prompt learning with LLM (S^2IP-LLM) to align the pre-trained semantic space with time series embeddings space and perform time series forecasting based on learned prompts from the joint space. We first design a tokenization module tailored for cross-modality alignment, which explicitly concatenates patches of decomposed time series components to create embeddings that effectively encode the temporal dynamics. Next, we leverage the pre-trained word token embeddings to derive semantic anchors and align selected anchors with time series embeddings by maximizing the cosine similarity in the joint space. This way, S^2IP-LLM can retrieve relevant semantic anchors as prompts to provide strong indicators (context) for time series that exhibit different temporal dynamics. With thorough empirical studies on multiple benchmark datasets, we demonstrate that the proposed S^2IP-LLM can achieve superior forecasting performance over state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, our ablation studies and visualizations verify the necessity of prompt learning informed by semantic space.

Understanding world dynamics is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Recent methods attempt to achieve this by learning a 3D occupancy world model that forecasts future surrounding scenes based on current observation. However, 3D occupancy labels are still required to produce promising results. Considering the high annotation cost for 3D outdoor scenes, we propose a semi-supervised vision-centric 3D occupancy world model, PreWorld, to leverage the potential of 2D labels through a novel two-stage training paradigm: the self-supervised pre-training stage and the fully-supervised fine-tuning stage. Specifically, during the pre-training stage, we utilize an attribute projection head to generate different attribute fields of a scene (e.g., RGB, density, semantic), thus enabling temporal supervision from 2D labels via volume rendering techniques. Furthermore, we introduce a simple yet effective state-conditioned forecasting module to recursively forecast future occupancy and ego trajectory in a direct manner. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes dataset validate the effectiveness and scalability of our method, and demonstrate that PreWorld achieves competitive performance across 3D occupancy prediction, 4D occupancy forecasting and motion planning tasks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have recently demonstrated impressive capabilities in natural language processing due to their strong generalization and sequence modeling capabilities. However, their direct application to time series forecasting remains challenging due to two fundamental issues: the inherent heterogeneity of temporal patterns and the modality gap between continuous numerical signals and discrete language representations. In this work, we propose TALON, a unified framework that enhances LLM-based forecasting by modeling temporal heterogeneity and enforcing semantic alignment. Specifically, we design a Heterogeneous Temporal Encoder that partitions multivariate time series into structurally coherent segments, enabling localized expert modeling across diverse temporal patterns. To bridge the modality gap, we introduce a Semantic Alignment Module that aligns temporal features with LLM-compatible representations, enabling effective integration of time series into language-based models while eliminating the need for handcrafted prompts during inference. Extensive experiments on seven real-world benchmarks demonstrate that TALON achieves superior performance across all datasets, with average MSE improvements of up to 11\% over recent state-of-the-art methods. These results underscore the effectiveness of incorporating both pattern-aware and semantic-aware designs when adapting LLMs for time series forecasting. The code is available at: https://github.com/syrGitHub/TALON.

3D semantic occupancy prediction networks have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reconstructing the geometric and semantic structure of 3D scenes, providing crucial information for robot navigation and autonomous driving systems. However, due to their large overhead from dense network structure designs, existing networks face challenges balancing accuracy and latency. In this paper, we introduce OccRWKV, an efficient semantic occupancy network inspired by Receptance Weighted Key Value (RWKV). OccRWKV separates semantics, occupancy prediction, and feature fusion into distinct branches, each incorporating Sem-RWKV and Geo-RWKV blocks. These blocks are designed to capture long-range dependencies, enabling the network to learn domain-specific representation (i.e., semantics and geometry), which enhances prediction accuracy. Leveraging the sparse nature of real-world 3D occupancy, we reduce computational overhead by projecting features into the bird's-eye view (BEV) space and propose a BEV-RWKV block for efficient feature enhancement and fusion. This enables real-time inference at 22.2 FPS without compromising performance. Experiments demonstrate that OccRWKV outperforms the state-of-the-art methods on the SemanticKITTI dataset, achieving a mIoU of 25.1 while being 20 times faster than the best baseline, Co-Occ, making it suitable for real-time deployment on robots to enhance autonomous navigation efficiency. Code and video are available on our project page: https://jmwang0117.github.io/OccRWKV/.

Floorplans provide a compact representation of the building's structure, revealing not only layout information but also detailed semantics such as the locations of windows and doors. However, contemporary floorplan localization techniques mostly focus on matching depth-based structural cues, ignoring the rich semantics communicated within floorplans. In this work, we introduce a semantic-aware localization framework that jointly estimates depth and semantic rays, consolidating over both for predicting a structural-semantic probability volume. Our probability volume is constructed in a coarse-to-fine manner: We first sample a small set of rays to obtain an initial low-resolution probability volume. We then refine these probabilities by performing a denser sampling only in high-probability regions and process the refined values for predicting a 2D location and orientation angle. We conduct an evaluation on two standard floorplan localization benchmarks. Our experiments demonstrate that our approach substantially outperforms state-of-the-art methods, achieving significant improvements in recall metrics compared to prior works. Moreover, we show that our framework can easily incorporate additional metadata such as room labels, enabling additional gains in both accuracy and efficiency.

Semantic future prediction is important for autonomous systems navigating dynamic environments. This paper introduces FUTURIST, a method for multimodal future semantic prediction that uses a unified and efficient visual sequence transformer architecture. Our approach incorporates a multimodal masked visual modeling objective and a novel masking mechanism designed for multimodal training. This allows the model to effectively integrate visible information from various modalities, improving prediction accuracy. Additionally, we propose a VAE-free hierarchical tokenization process, which reduces computational complexity, streamlines the training pipeline, and enables end-to-end training with high-resolution, multimodal inputs. We validate FUTURIST on the Cityscapes dataset, demonstrating state-of-the-art performance in future semantic segmentation for both short- and mid-term forecasting. We provide the implementation code at https://github.com/Sta8is/FUTURIST .

Monocular 3D occupancy prediction, aiming to predict the occupancy and semantics within interesting regions of 3D scenes from only 2D images, has garnered increasing attention recently for its vital role in 3D scene understanding. Predicting the 3D occupancy of large-scale outdoor scenes from 2D images is ill-posed and resource-intensive. In this paper, we present DGOcc, a Depth-aware Global query-based network for monocular 3D Occupancy prediction. We first explore prior depth maps to extract depth context features that provide explicit geometric information for the occupancy network. Then, in order to fully exploit the depth context features, we propose a Global Query-based (GQ) Module. The cooperation of attention mechanisms and scale-aware operations facilitates the feature interaction between images and 3D voxels. Moreover, a Hierarchical Supervision Strategy (HSS) is designed to avoid upsampling the high-dimension 3D voxel features to full resolution, which mitigates GPU memory utilization and time cost. Extensive experiments on SemanticKITTI and SSCBench-KITTI-360 datasets demonstrate that the proposed method achieves the best performance on monocular semantic occupancy prediction while reducing GPU and time overhead.

Vision-based 3D semantic occupancy prediction is a critical task in 3D vision that integrates volumetric 3D reconstruction with semantic understanding. Existing methods, however, often rely on modular pipelines. These modules are typically optimized independently or use pre-configured inputs, leading to cascading errors. In this paper, we address this limitation by designing a novel causal loss that enables holistic, end-to-end supervision of the modular 2D-to-3D transformation pipeline. Grounded in the principle of 2D-to-3D semantic causality, this loss regulates the gradient flow from 3D voxel representations back to the 2D features. Consequently, it renders the entire pipeline differentiable, unifying the learning process and making previously non-trainable components fully learnable. Building on this principle, we propose the Semantic Causality-Aware 2D-to-3D Transformation, which comprises three components guided by our causal loss: Channel-Grouped Lifting for adaptive semantic mapping, Learnable Camera Offsets for enhanced robustness against camera perturbations, and Normalized Convolution for effective feature propagation. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the Occ3D benchmark, demonstrating significant robustness to camera perturbations and improved 2D-to-3D semantic consistency.

The rapid advancement of autonomous systems, including self-driving vehicles and drones, has intensified the need to forge true Spatial Intelligence from multi-modal onboard sensor data. While foundation models excel in single-modal contexts, integrating their capabilities across diverse sensors like cameras and LiDAR to create a unified understanding remains a formidable challenge. This paper presents a comprehensive framework for multi-modal pre-training, identifying the core set of techniques driving progress toward this goal. We dissect the interplay between foundational sensor characteristics and learning strategies, evaluating the role of platform-specific datasets in enabling these advancements. Our central contribution is the formulation of a unified taxonomy for pre-training paradigms: ranging from single-modality baselines to sophisticated unified frameworks that learn holistic representations for advanced tasks like 3D object detection and semantic occupancy prediction. Furthermore, we investigate the integration of textual inputs and occupancy representations to facilitate open-world perception and planning. Finally, we identify critical bottlenecks, such as computational efficiency and model scalability, and propose a roadmap toward general-purpose multi-modal foundation models capable of achieving robust Spatial Intelligence for real-world deployment.

Semantic occupancy perception is essential for autonomous driving, as automated vehicles require a fine-grained perception of the 3D urban structures. However, existing relevant benchmarks lack diversity in urban scenes, and they only evaluate front-view predictions. Towards a comprehensive benchmarking of surrounding perception algorithms, we propose OpenOccupancy, which is the first surrounding semantic occupancy perception benchmark. In the OpenOccupancy benchmark, we extend the large-scale nuScenes dataset with dense semantic occupancy annotations. Previous annotations rely on LiDAR points superimposition, where some occupancy labels are missed due to sparse LiDAR channels. To mitigate the problem, we introduce the Augmenting And Purifying (AAP) pipeline to ~2x densify the annotations, where ~4000 human hours are involved in the labeling process. Besides, camera-based, LiDAR-based and multi-modal baselines are established for the OpenOccupancy benchmark. Furthermore, considering the complexity of surrounding occupancy perception lies in the computational burden of high-resolution 3D predictions, we propose the Cascade Occupancy Network (CONet) to refine the coarse prediction, which relatively enhances the performance by ~30% than the baseline. We hope the OpenOccupancy benchmark will boost the development of surrounding occupancy perception algorithms.

Recent advancements in camera-based occupancy prediction have focused on the simultaneous prediction of 3D semantics and scene flow, a task that presents significant challenges due to specific difficulties, e.g., occlusions and unbalanced dynamic environments. In this paper, we analyze these challenges and their underlying causes. To address them, we propose a novel regularization framework called VoxelSplat. This framework leverages recent developments in 3D Gaussian Splatting to enhance model performance in two key ways: (i) Enhanced Semantics Supervision through 2D Projection: During training, our method decodes sparse semantic 3D Gaussians from 3D representations and projects them onto the 2D camera view. This provides additional supervision signals in the camera-visible space, allowing 2D labels to improve the learning of 3D semantics. (ii) Scene Flow Learning: Our framework uses the predicted scene flow to model the motion of Gaussians, and is thus able to learn the scene flow of moving objects in a self-supervised manner using the labels of adjacent frames. Our method can be seamlessly integrated into various existing occupancy models, enhancing performance without increasing inference time. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of VoxelSplat in improving the accuracy of both semantic occupancy and scene flow estimation. The project page and codes are available at https://zzy816.github.io/VoxelSplat-Demo/.

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM system designed to automatically search for relevant information, generate forecasts, and aggregate predictions. To facilitate our study, we collect a large dataset of questions from competitive forecasting platforms. Under a test set published after the knowledge cut-offs of our LMs, we evaluate the end-to-end performance of our system against the aggregates of human forecasts. On average, the system nears the crowd aggregate of competitive forecasters, and in some settings surpasses it. Our work suggests that using LMs to forecast the future could provide accurate predictions at scale and help to inform institutional decision making.

3D occupancy prediction is important for autonomous driving due to its comprehensive perception of the surroundings. To incorporate sequential inputs, most existing methods fuse representations from previous frames to infer the current 3D occupancy. However, they fail to consider the continuity of driving scenarios and ignore the strong prior provided by the evolution of 3D scenes (e.g., only dynamic objects move). In this paper, we propose a world-model-based framework to exploit the scene evolution for perception. We reformulate 3D occupancy prediction as a 4D occupancy forecasting problem conditioned on the current sensor input. We decompose the scene evolution into three factors: 1) ego motion alignment of static scenes; 2) local movements of dynamic objects; and 3) completion of newly-observed scenes. We then employ a Gaussian world model (GaussianWorld) to explicitly exploit these priors and infer the scene evolution in the 3D Gaussian space considering the current RGB observation. We evaluate the effectiveness of our framework on the widely used nuScenes dataset. Our GaussianWorld improves the performance of the single-frame counterpart by over 2% in mIoU without introducing additional computations. Code: https://github.com/zuosc19/GaussianWorld.

Autonomous driving requires robust perception across diverse environmental conditions, yet 3D semantic occupancy prediction remains challenging under adverse weather and lighting. In this work, we present the first study combining 4D radar and camera data for 3D semantic occupancy prediction. Our fusion leverages the complementary strengths of both modalities: 4D radar provides reliable range, velocity, and angle measurements in challenging conditions, while cameras contribute rich semantic and texture information. We further show that integrating depth cues from camera pixels enables lifting 2D images to 3D, improving scene reconstruction accuracy. Additionally, we introduce a fully automatically labeled dataset for training semantic occupancy models, substantially reducing reliance on costly manual annotation. Experiments demonstrate the robustness of 4D radar across diverse scenarios, highlighting its potential to advance autonomous vehicle perception.

Existing learning-based occupancy prediction methods rely on large-scale 3D annotations and generalize poorly across environments. We present FreeOcc, a training-free framework for open-vocabulary occupancy prediction from monocular or RGB-D sequences. Unlike prior approaches that require voxel-level supervision and ground-truth camera poses, FreeOcc operates without 3D annotations, pose ground truth, or any learning stage. FreeOcc incrementally builds a globally consistent occupancy map via a four-layer pipeline: a SLAM backbone estimates poses and sparse geometry; a geometrically consistent Gaussian update constructs dense 3D Gaussian maps; open-vocabulary semantics from off-the-shelf vision-language models are associated with Gaussian primitives; and a probabilistic Gaussian-to-occupancy projection produces dense voxel occupancy. Despite being entirely training-free and pose-agnostic, FreeOcc achieves over 2times improvements in IoU and mIoU on EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet compared to prior self-supervised methods. We further introduce ReplicaOcc, a benchmark for indoor open-vocabulary occupancy prediction, and show that FreeOcc transfers zero-shot to novel environments, substantially outperforming both supervised and self-supervised baselines. Project page: https://the-masses.github.io/freeocc-web/.

Time series forecasting is a long-standing and highly challenging research topic. Recently, driven by the rise of large language models (LLMs), research has increasingly shifted from purely time series methods toward harnessing textual modalities to enhance forecasting performance. However, the vast discrepancy between text and temporal data often leads current multimodal architectures to over-emphasise one modality while neglecting the other, resulting in information loss that harms forecasting performance. To address this modality imbalance, we introduce BALM-TSF (Balanced Multimodal Alignment for LLM-Based Time Series Forecasting), a lightweight time series forecasting framework that maintains balance between the two modalities. Specifically, raw time series are processed by the time series encoder, while descriptive statistics of raw time series are fed to an LLM with learnable prompt, producing compact textual embeddings. To ensure balanced cross-modal context alignment of time series and textual embeddings, a simple yet effective scaling strategy combined with a contrastive objective then maps these textual embeddings into the latent space of the time series embeddings. Finally, the aligned textual semantic embeddings and time series embeddings are together integrated for forecasting. Extensive experiments on standard benchmarks show that, with minimal trainable parameters, BALM-TSF achieves state-of-the-art performance in both long-term and few-shot forecasting, confirming its ability to harness complementary information from text and time series. Code is available at https://github.com/ShiqiaoZhou/BALM-TSF.

Vision-only occupancy prediction requires recovering a semantic 3D occupancy field from calibrated surround-view images, where each view provides observations with ambiguous depth along camera rays. Existing methods have progressed from dense structured representations to sparse Gaussian primitives, improving the efficiency of 3D scene representation. However, Gaussian learning still relies primarily on image domain features, which provide limited explicit geometric information for volumetric reasoning. Our key observation is that effective Gaussian occupancy modeling requires not only sparse primitives, but also richer geometric and semantic learning cues. In this paper, we propose VGOcc, which learns visual and geometric cues from foundation models for Gaussian modeling. VGOcc incorporates these cues into primitive initialization and refinement, yielding a representation termed Visual-Geometric Gaussians tailored to semantic occupancy prediction. Specifically, we propose Visual-Geometric Gaussian Birth to form spatially balanced Gaussian centers from ray depth hypotheses, while visual semantic features initialize primitive attributes. Next, we design Pose-Aware Feature Learning to combine foundation tokens with camera embeddings and calibrated ray information. Features from neighboring views are then aggregated at projected 3D locations for each Gaussian refinement stage. Finally, Gaussian decoder refines birth Gaussians with pose-aware features and renders them into semantic occupancy. Experiments on nuScenes demonstrate that VGOcc achieves state-of-the-art performance in vision-only 3D occupancy prediction. Codes will be available at https://github.com/JHLin42in/VGOcc.

Time series forecasting is not just numerical extrapolation, but often requires reasoning with unstructured contextual data such as news or events. While specialized Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at forecasting based on numerical patterns, they remain unaware to real-world textual signals. Conversely, while LLMs are emerging as zero-shot forecasters, their performance remains uneven across domains and contextual grounding. To bridge this gap, we introduce Nexus, a multi-agent forecasting framework that decomposes prediction into specialized stages: isolating macro-level and micro-level temporal fluctuations, and integrating contextual information when available before synthesizing a final forecast. This decomposition enables Nexus to adapt from seasonal signals to volatile, event-driven information without relying on external statistical anchors or monolithic prompting. We show that current-generation LLMs possess substantially stronger intrinsic forecasting ability than previously recognized, depending critically on how numerical and contextual reasoning are organized. Evaluated on data strictly succeeding LLM knowledge cutoffs spanning Zillow real estate metrics and volatile stock market equities, Nexus consistently matches or outperforms state-of-the-art TSFMs and strong LLM baselines. Beyond numerical accuracy, Nexus produces high-quality reasoning traces that explicitly show the fundamental drivers behind each forecast. Our results establish that real-world forecasting is an agentic reasoning problem extending well beyond only sequence modeling.

3D Semantic Occupancy Prediction is fundamental for spatial understanding as it provides a comprehensive semantic cognition of surrounding environments. However, prevalent approaches primarily rely on extensive labeled data and computationally intensive voxel-based modeling, restricting the scalability and generalizability of 3D representation learning. In this paper, we introduce GaussTR, a novel Gaussian Transformer that leverages alignment with foundation models to advance self-supervised 3D spatial understanding. GaussTR adopts a Transformer architecture to predict sparse sets of 3D Gaussians that represent scenes in a feed-forward manner. Through aligning rendered Gaussian features with diverse knowledge from pre-trained foundation models, GaussTR facilitates the learning of versatile 3D representations and enables open-vocabulary occupancy prediction without explicit annotations. Empirical evaluations on the Occ3D-nuScenes dataset showcase GaussTR's state-of-the-art zero-shot performance, achieving 11.70 mIoU while reducing training duration by approximately 50%. These experimental results highlight the significant potential of GaussTR for scalable and holistic 3D spatial understanding, with promising implications for autonomous driving and embodied agents. Code is available at https://github.com/hustvl/GaussTR.

Vision-based semantic occupancy and flow prediction plays a crucial role in providing spatiotemporal cues for real-world tasks, such as autonomous driving. Existing methods prioritize higher accuracy to cater to the demands of these tasks. In this work, we strive to improve performance by introducing a series of targeted improvements for 3D semantic occupancy prediction and flow estimation. First, we introduce an occlusion-aware adaptive lifting mechanism with a depth denoising technique to improve the robustness of 2D-to-3D feature transformation and reduce the reliance on depth priors. Second, we strengthen the semantic consistency between 3D features and their original 2D modalities by utilizing shared semantic prototypes to jointly constrain both 2D and 3D features. This is complemented by confidence- and category-based sampling strategies to tackle long-tail challenges in 3D space. To alleviate the feature encoding burden in the joint prediction of semantics and flow, we propose a BEV cost volume-based prediction method that links flow and semantic features through a cost volume and employs a classification-regression supervision scheme to address the varying flow scales in dynamic scenes. Our purely convolutional architecture framework, named ALOcc, achieves an optimal tradeoff between speed and accuracy achieving state-of-the-art results on multiple benchmarks. On Occ3D and training without the camera visible mask, our ALOcc achieves an absolute gain of 2.5\% in terms of RayIoU while operating at a comparable speed compared to the state-of-the-art, using the same input size (256times704) and ResNet-50 backbone. Our method also achieves 2nd place in the CVPR24 Occupancy and Flow Prediction Competition.

Forecasting is a critical task in decision-making across numerous domains. While historical numerical data provide a start, they fail to convey the complete context for reliable and accurate predictions. Human forecasters frequently rely on additional information, such as background knowledge and constraints, which can efficiently be communicated through natural language. However, in spite of recent progress with LLM-based forecasters, their ability to effectively integrate this textual information remains an open question. To address this, we introduce "Context is Key" (CiK), a time-series forecasting benchmark that pairs numerical data with diverse types of carefully crafted textual context, requiring models to integrate both modalities; crucially, every task in CiK requires understanding textual context to be solved successfully. We evaluate a range of approaches, including statistical models, time series foundation models, and LLM-based forecasters, and propose a simple yet effective LLM prompting method that outperforms all other tested methods on our benchmark. Our experiments highlight the importance of incorporating contextual information, demonstrate surprising performance when using LLM-based forecasting models, and also reveal some of their critical shortcomings. This benchmark aims to advance multimodal forecasting by promoting models that are both accurate and accessible to decision-makers with varied technical expertise. The benchmark can be visualized at https://servicenow.github.io/context-is-key-forecasting/v0/.

This paper introduces a novel architecture for trajectory-conditioned forecasting of future 3D scene occupancy. In contrast to methods that rely on variational autoencoders (VAEs) to generate discrete occupancy tokens, which inherently limit representational capacity, our approach predicts multi-frame future occupancy in an end-to-end manner directly from raw image features. Inspired by the success of attention-based transformer architectures in foundational vision and language models such as GPT and VGGT, we employ a sparse occupancy representation that bypasses the intermediate bird's eye view (BEV) projection and its explicit geometric priors. This design allows the transformer to capture spatiotemporal dependencies more effectively. By avoiding both the finite-capacity constraint of discrete tokenization and the structural limitations of BEV representations, our method achieves state-of-the-art performance on the nuScenes benchmark for 1-3 second occupancy forecasting, outperforming existing approaches by a significant margin. Furthermore, it demonstrates robust scene dynamics understanding, consistently delivering high accuracy under arbitrary future trajectory conditioning.

Occupancy prediction aims to estimate the 3D spatial distribution of occupied regions along with their corresponding semantic labels. Existing vision-based methods perform well on daytime benchmarks but struggle in nighttime scenarios due to limited visibility and challenging lighting conditions. To address these challenges, we propose LIAR, a novel framework that learns illumination-affined representations. LIAR first introduces Selective Low-light Image Enhancement (SLLIE), which leverages the illumination priors from daytime scenes to adaptively determine whether a nighttime image is genuinely dark or sufficiently well-lit, enabling more targeted global enhancement. Building on the illumination maps generated by SLLIE, LIAR further incorporates two illumination-aware components: 2D Illumination-guided Sampling (2D-IGS) and 3D Illumination-driven Projection (3D-IDP), to respectively tackle local underexposure and overexposure. Specifically, 2D-IGS modulates feature sampling positions according to illumination maps, assigning larger offsets to darker regions and smaller ones to brighter regions, thereby alleviating feature degradation in underexposed areas. Subsequently, 3D-IDP enhances semantic understanding in overexposed regions by constructing illumination intensity fields and supplying refined residual queries to the BEV context refinement process. Extensive experiments on both real and synthetic datasets demonstrate the superior performance of LIAR under challenging nighttime scenarios. The source code and pretrained models are available https://github.com/yanzq95/LIAR{here}.

Recent advancements in time series forecasting have explored augmenting models with text or vision modalities to improve accuracy. While text provides contextual understanding, it often lacks fine-grained temporal details. Conversely, vision captures intricate temporal patterns but lacks semantic context, limiting the complementary potential of these modalities. To address this, we propose \method, a novel multimodal framework that leverages pre-trained Vision-Language Models (VLMs) to bridge temporal, visual, and textual modalities for enhanced forecasting. Our framework comprises three key components: (1) a Retrieval-Augmented Learner, which extracts enriched temporal features through memory bank interactions; (2) a Vision-Augmented Learner, which encodes time series as informative images; and (3) a Text-Augmented Learner, which generates contextual textual descriptions. These components collaborate with frozen pre-trained VLMs to produce multimodal embeddings, which are then fused with temporal features for final prediction. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Time-VLM achieves superior performance, particularly in few-shot and zero-shot scenarios, thereby establishing a new direction for multimodal time series forecasting. Code is available at https://github.com/CityMind-Lab/ICML25-TimeVLM.

Time series forecasting plays a vital role in supporting decision-making across a wide range of critical applications, including energy, healthcare, and finance. Despite recent advances, forecasting accuracy remains limited due to the challenge of integrating historical numerical sequences with contextual features, which often comprise unstructured textual data. To address this challenge, we propose TokenCast, an LLM-driven framework that leverages language-based symbolic representations as a unified intermediary for context-aware time series forecasting. Specifically, TokenCast employs a discrete tokenizer to transform continuous numerical sequences into temporal tokens, enabling structural alignment with language-based inputs. To bridge the semantic gap between modalities, both temporal and contextual tokens are embedded into a shared representation space via a pre-trained large language model (LLM), further optimized with autoregressive generative objectives. Building upon this unified semantic space, the aligned LLM is subsequently fine-tuned in a supervised manner to predict future temporal tokens, which are then decoded back into the original numerical space. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world datasets enriched with contextual features demonstrate the effectiveness and generalizability of TokenCast.

Anticipating human motion from an egocentric perspective is fundamental for proactive assistance in AR/VR, human-robot collaboration, and embodied AI. While recent works incorporate language as a semantic prior to reduce the ill-posed nature of egocentric forecasting, they largely neglect the 3D spatial and semantic context that governs how motion unfolds, and treat pose and language prediction as separate inference streams. We introduce Ego3DLM, built on two core principles: accurate motion forecasting requires explicit spatial and semantic understanding of the 3D environment, and pose and language must be predicted holistically in a single pass, since motion is inherently tied to the semantic interpretation of actions being performed. Given three-point tracking, 3D scene features, and egocentric video, Ego3DLM simultaneously decodes past pose, future pose, past narration, and future narration in a single autoregressive pass, grounding predicted poses and descriptions in one another to enforce cross-modal and temporal consistency. We adopt a three-stage training scheme: (1) spatial-semantic scene awareness pretraining; (2) holistic instruction tuning over all four outputs in a single pass; and (3) GRPO-based reinforcement finetuning with intra- and inter-modal rewards that directly optimize pose-language fidelity. Experiments on the Nymeria benchmark demonstrate that Ego3DLM achieves state-of-the-art performance across future motion prediction, past motion tracking, and motion description, showing that 3D scene grounding and holistic cross-modal prediction yield physically plausible and semantically coherent motion forecasts. The project page is available at https://jaewoo97.github.io/Ego3DLM/.

Vision-centric occupancy networks, which represent the surrounding environment with uniform voxels with semantics, have become a new trend for safe driving of camera-only autonomous driving perception systems, as they are able to detect obstacles regardless of their shape and occlusion. Modern occupancy networks mainly focus on reconstructing visible voxels from object surfaces with voxel-wise semantic prediction. Usually, they suffer from inconsistent predictions of one object and mixed predictions for adjacent objects. These confusions may harm the safety of downstream planning modules. To this end, we investigate panoptic segmentation on 3D voxel scenarios and propose an instance-aware occupancy network, PanoSSC. We predict foreground objects and backgrounds separately and merge both in post-processing. For foreground instance grouping, we propose a novel 3D instance mask decoder that can efficiently extract individual objects. we unify geometric reconstruction, 3D semantic segmentation, and 3D instance segmentation into PanoSSC framework and propose new metrics for evaluating panoptic voxels. Extensive experiments show that our method achieves competitive results on SemanticKITTI semantic scene completion benchmark.

Reasoning about human motion is an important prerequisite to safe and socially-aware robotic navigation. As a result, multi-agent behavior prediction has become a core component of modern human-robot interactive systems, such as self-driving cars. While there exist many methods for trajectory forecasting, most do not enforce dynamic constraints and do not account for environmental information (e.g., maps). Towards this end, we present Trajectron++, a modular, graph-structured recurrent model that forecasts the trajectories of a general number of diverse agents while incorporating agent dynamics and heterogeneous data (e.g., semantic maps). Trajectron++ is designed to be tightly integrated with robotic planning and control frameworks; for example, it can produce predictions that are optionally conditioned on ego-agent motion plans. We demonstrate its performance on several challenging real-world trajectory forecasting datasets, outperforming a wide array of state-of-the-art deterministic and generative methods.

Time series forecasting traditionally relies on unimodal numerical inputs, which often struggle to capture high-level semantic patterns due to their dense and unstructured nature. While recent approaches have explored representing time series as text using large language models (LLMs), these methods remain limited by the discrete nature of token sequences and lack the perceptual intuition humans typically apply, such as interpreting visual patterns. In this paper, we propose a multimodal contrastive learning framework that transforms raw time series into structured visual and textual perspectives. Rather than using natural language or real-world images, we construct both modalities directly from numerical sequences. We then align these views in a shared semantic space via contrastive learning, enabling the model to capture richer and more complementary representations. Furthermore, we introduce a variate selection module that leverages the aligned representations to identify the most informative variables for multivariate forecasting. Extensive experiments on fifteen short-term and six long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that our approach consistently outperforms strong unimodal and cross-modal baselines, highlighting the effectiveness of multimodal alignment in enhancing time series forecasting. Code is available at: https://github.com/Ironieser/TimesCLIP.

Despite the recent success of large language models (LLMs) in time-series forecasting, most existing methods still adopt a Deep Synchronous Fusion strategy, where dense interactions between textual and temporal features are enforced at every layer of the network. This design overlooks the inherent granularity mismatch between modalities and leads to what we term semantic perceptual dissonance: high-level abstract semantics provided by the LLM become inappropriately entangled with the low-level, fine-grained numerical dynamics of time series, making it difficult for semantic priors to effectively guide forecasting. To address this issue, we propose TimeSAF, a new framework based on hierarchical asynchronous fusion. Unlike synchronous approaches, TimeSAF explicitly decouples unimodal feature learning from cross-modal interaction. It introduces an independent cross-modal semantic fusion trunk, which uses learnable queries to aggregate global semantics from the temporal and prompt backbones in a bottom-up manner, and a stage-wise semantic refinement decoder that asynchronously injects these high-level signals back into the temporal backbone. This mechanism provides stable and efficient semantic guidance while avoiding interference with low-level temporal dynamics. Extensive experiments on standard long-term forecasting benchmarks show that TimeSAF significantly outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, and further exhibits strong generalization in both few-shot and zero-shot transfer settings.

Understanding how the surrounding environment changes is crucial for performing downstream tasks safely and reliably in autonomous driving applications. Recent occupancy estimation techniques using only camera images as input can provide dense occupancy representations of large-scale scenes based on the current observation. However, they are mostly limited to representing the current 3D space and do not consider the future state of surrounding objects along the time axis. To extend camera-only occupancy estimation into spatiotemporal prediction, we propose Cam4DOcc, a new benchmark for camera-only 4D occupancy forecasting, evaluating the surrounding scene changes in a near future. We build our benchmark based on multiple publicly available datasets, including nuScenes, nuScenes-Occupancy, and Lyft-Level5, which provides sequential occupancy states of general movable and static objects, as well as their 3D backward centripetal flow. To establish this benchmark for future research with comprehensive comparisons, we introduce four baseline types from diverse camera-based perception and prediction implementations, including a static-world occupancy model, voxelization of point cloud prediction, 2D-3D instance-based prediction, and our proposed novel end-to-end 4D occupancy forecasting network. Furthermore, the standardized evaluation protocol for preset multiple tasks is also provided to compare the performance of all the proposed baselines on present and future occupancy estimation with respect to objects of interest in autonomous driving scenarios. The dataset and our implementation of all four baselines in the proposed Cam4DOcc benchmark will be released here: https://github.com/haomo-ai/Cam4DOcc.

Understanding 3D scenes semantically and spatially is crucial for the safe navigation of robots and autonomous vehicles, aiding obstacle avoidance and accurate trajectory planning. Camera-based 3D semantic occupancy prediction, which infers complete voxel grids from 2D images, is gaining importance in robot vision for its resource efficiency compared to 3D sensors. However, this task inherently suffers from a 2D-3D discrepancy, where objects of the same size in 3D space appear at different scales in a 2D image depending on their distance from the camera due to perspective projection. To tackle this issue, we propose a novel framework called VPOcc that leverages a vanishing point (VP) to mitigate the 2D-3D discrepancy at both the pixel and feature levels. As a pixel-level solution, we introduce a VPZoomer module, which warps images by counteracting the perspective effect using a VP-based homography transformation. In addition, as a feature-level solution, we propose a VP-guided cross-attention (VPCA) module that performs perspective-aware feature aggregation, utilizing 2D image features that are more suitable for 3D space. Lastly, we integrate two feature volumes extracted from the original and warped images to compensate for each other through a spatial volume fusion (SVF) module. By effectively incorporating VP into the network, our framework achieves improvements in both IoU and mIoU metrics on SemanticKITTI and SSCBench-KITTI360 datasets. Additional details are available at https://vision3d-lab.github.io/vpocc/.

We propose DOME, a diffusion-based world model that predicts future occupancy frames based on past occupancy observations. The ability of this world model to capture the evolution of the environment is crucial for planning in autonomous driving. Compared to 2D video-based world models, the occupancy world model utilizes a native 3D representation, which features easily obtainable annotations and is modality-agnostic. This flexibility has the potential to facilitate the development of more advanced world models. Existing occupancy world models either suffer from detail loss due to discrete tokenization or rely on simplistic diffusion architectures, leading to inefficiencies and difficulties in predicting future occupancy with controllability. Our DOME exhibits two key features:(1) High-Fidelity and Long-Duration Generation. We adopt a spatial-temporal diffusion transformer to predict future occupancy frames based on historical context. This architecture efficiently captures spatial-temporal information, enabling high-fidelity details and the ability to generate predictions over long durations. (2)Fine-grained Controllability. We address the challenge of controllability in predictions by introducing a trajectory resampling method, which significantly enhances the model's ability to generate controlled predictions. Extensive experiments on the widely used nuScenes dataset demonstrate that our method surpasses existing baselines in both qualitative and quantitative evaluations, establishing a new state-of-the-art performance on nuScenes. Specifically, our approach surpasses the baseline by 10.5% in mIoU and 21.2% in IoU for occupancy reconstruction and by 36.0% in mIoU and 24.6% in IoU for 4D occupancy forecasting.

Forecasting the evolution of 3D scenes and generating unseen scenarios via occupancy-based world models offers substantial potential for addressing corner cases in autonomous driving systems. While tokenization has revolutionized image and video generation, efficiently tokenizing complex 3D scenes remains a critical challenge for 3D world models. To address this, we propose I^{2}-World, an efficient framework for 4D occupancy forecasting. Our method decouples scene tokenization into intra-scene and inter-scene tokenizers. The intra-scene tokenizer employs a multi-scale residual quantization strategy to hierarchically compress 3D scenes while preserving spatial details. The inter-scene tokenizer residually aggregates temporal dependencies across timesteps. This dual design preserves the compactness of 3D tokenizers while retaining the dynamic expressiveness of 4D tokenizers. Unlike decoder-only GPT-style autoregressive models, I^{2}-World adopts an encoder-decoder architecture. The encoder aggregates spatial context from the current scene and predicts a transformation matrix to enable high-level control over scene generation. The decoder, conditioned on this matrix and historical tokens, ensures temporal consistency during generation. Experiments demonstrate that I^{2}-World achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods by 25.1\% in mIoU and 36.9\% in IoU for 4D occupancy forecasting while exhibiting exceptional computational efficiency: it requires merely 2.9 GB of training memory and achieves real-time inference at 37.0 FPS. Our code is available on https://github.com/lzzzzzm/II-World.

Forecasting real-world events requires language-model agents to reason under uncertainty from incomplete, time-bounded information. Yet evaluating whether agents genuinely forecast requires more than final-answer accuracy: a model may be correct by recalling memorized training facts, citing fabricated evidence, or producing an unsupported causal story. We present WorldReasoner, an evaluation framework for temporally valid event forecasting. Each task gives an agent a resolved forecasting question, a simulated forecast date, and access only to evidence available before that date; after resolution, the framework scores the submitted probability, cited evidence, and optional causal event graph. WorldReasoner reports three complementary axes: outcome quality against resolved answers, evidence quality over cited sources, and reasoning quality against post-resolution hindsight graphs. The benchmark is built by an agentic construction pipeline that generates forecasting questions, collects time-stamped evidence, and builds hindsight reference graphs at scale, yielding 345 resolved tasks derived from 14,141 articles with graphs covering 8,087 extracted events. Across six controlled agent settings, temporally valid retrieval is the strongest driver of outcome accuracy; causal graph construction improves key-event recovery; and correct graph-enabled forecasts are more strongly grounded in key events and relevant sources, yet agents still struggle to convert grounded evidence into calibrated probabilities.

Occupancy prediction provides critical geometric and semantic understanding for robotics but faces efficiency-accuracy trade-offs. Current dense methods suffer computational waste on empty voxels, while sparse query-based approaches lack robustness in diverse and complex indoor scenes. In this paper, we propose DiScene, a novel sparse query-based framework that leverages multi-level distillation to achieve efficient and robust occupancy prediction. In particular, our method incorporates two key innovations: (1) a Multi-level Consistent Knowledge Distillation strategy, which transfers hierarchical representations from large teacher models to lightweight students through coordinated alignment across four levels, including encoder-level feature alignment, query-level feature matching, prior-level spatial guidance, and anchor-level high-confidence knowledge transfer and (2) a Teacher-Guided Initialization policy, employing optimized parameter warm-up to accelerate model convergence. Validated on the Occ-Scannet benchmark, DiScene achieves 23.2 FPS without depth priors while outperforming our baseline method, OPUS, by 36.1% and even better than the depth-enhanced version, OPUS†. With depth integration, DiScene† attains new SOTA performance, surpassing EmbodiedOcc by 3.7% with 1.62times faster inference speed. Furthermore, experiments on the Occ3D-nuScenes benchmark and in-the-wild scenarios demonstrate the versatility of our approach in various environments. Code and models can be accessed at https://github.com/getterupper/DiScene.

Time series data is ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for critical applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve practical problems. However, this dimension is notably absent from existing benchmarks of generalist models. To bridge this gap, we introduce TSRBench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark designed to stress-test the full spectrum of time series reasoning capabilities. TSRBench features: i) a diverse set of 4125 problems from 14 domains, and is categorized into 4 major dimensions: Perception, Reasoning, Prediction, and Decision-Making. ii) 15 tasks from the 4 dimensions evaluating essential reasoning capabilities (e.g., numerical reasoning). Through extensive experiments, we evaluated over 30 leading proprietary and open-source LLMs, VLMs, and TSLLMs within TSRBench. Our findings reveal that: i) scaling laws hold for perception and reasoning but break down for prediction; ii) strong reasoning does not guarantee accurate context-aware forecasting, indicating a decoupling between semantic understanding and numerical prediction; and iii) despite the complementary nature of textual and visual represenations of time series as inputs, current multimodal models fail to effectively fuse them for reciprocal performance gains. TSRBench provides a standardized evaluation platform that not only highlights existing challenges but also offers valuable insights to advance generalist models. Our code and dataset are available at https://tsrbench.github.io/.

3D occupancy prediction provides a comprehensive description of the surrounding scenes and has become an essential task for 3D perception. Most existing methods focus on offline perception from one or a few views and cannot be applied to embodied agents that demand to gradually perceive the scene through progressive embodied exploration. In this paper, we formulate an embodied 3D occupancy prediction task to target this practical scenario and propose a Gaussian-based EmbodiedOcc framework to accomplish it. We initialize the global scene with uniform 3D semantic Gaussians and progressively update local regions observed by the embodied agent. For each update, we extract semantic and structural features from the observed image and efficiently incorporate them via deformable cross-attention to refine the regional Gaussians. Finally, we employ Gaussian-to-voxel splatting to obtain the global 3D occupancy from the updated 3D Gaussians. Our EmbodiedOcc assumes an unknown (i.e., uniformly distributed) environment and maintains an explicit global memory of it with 3D Gaussians. It gradually gains knowledge through the local refinement of regional Gaussians, which is consistent with how humans understand new scenes through embodied exploration. We reorganize an EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet benchmark based on local annotations to facilitate the evaluation of the embodied 3D occupancy prediction task. Our EmbodiedOcc outperforms existing methods by a large margin and accomplishes the embodied occupancy prediction with high accuracy and efficiency. Code: https://github.com/YkiWu/EmbodiedOcc.

This article presents a complete semantic scene understanding workflow using only a single 2D lidar. This fills the gap in 2D lidar semantic segmentation, thereby enabling the rethinking and enhancement of existing 2D lidar-based algorithms for application in various mobile robot tasks. It introduces the first publicly available 2D lidar semantic segmentation dataset and the first fine-grained semantic segmentation algorithm specifically designed for 2D lidar sensors on autonomous mobile robots. To annotate this dataset, we propose a novel semi-automatic semantic labeling framework that requires minimal human effort and provides point-level semantic annotations. The data was collected by three different types of 2D lidar sensors across twelve indoor environments, featuring a range of common indoor objects. Furthermore, the proposed semantic segmentation algorithm fully exploits raw lidar information -- position, range, intensity, and incident angle -- to deliver stochastic, point-wise semantic segmentation. We present a series of semantic occupancy grid mapping experiments and demonstrate two semantically-aware navigation control policies based on 2D lidar. These results demonstrate that the proposed semantic 2D lidar dataset, semi-automatic labeling framework, and segmentation algorithm are effective and can enhance different components of the robotic navigation pipeline. Multimedia resources are available at: https://youtu.be/P1Hsvj6WUSY.

Recently, large language models (LLMs) have shown great promise in time series forecasting. However, most existing LLM-based forecasting methods still follow a static generative paradigm that directly maps historical observations to future values in a single pass. Under this paradigm, forecasting is constrained by limited temporal pattern extraction, single-round acquisition of contextual features, one-shot forecast generation, and lack of support from ensemble forecasts. To address these limitations, in this work, we propose CastFlow, a dynamic agentic forecasting framework that enables multi-view temporal pattern extraction, multi-round contextual features acquisition, iterative forecast refinement, and forecasting with ensemble forecasts. First, CastFlow organizes the forecasting process into planning, action, forecasting, and reflection, establishing an agentic workflow. Second, this workflow is supported by a memory module that retrieves prior experience and a multi-view toolkit that constructs diagnostic evidence and provides a reliable ensemble forecast baseline. Third, CastFlow adopts a role-specialized design that combines general-purpose reasoning with specialized numerical forecasting. Under this design, a frozen LLM preserves general-purpose reasoning, while a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM performs evidence-guided numerical forecasting based on the ensemble forecast baseline, rather than from scratch. To optimize a fine-tuned domain-specific LLM, we further develop a two-stage workflow-oriented training that combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR). To evaluate the effectiveness of CastFlow, we conduct extensive experiments on diverse datasets and show that it achieves superior overall results against strong baselines. We hope that this work can serve as a step toward more adaptive and accurate time series forecasting.

Language models (LMs) trained on web-scale datasets are largely successful due to their ability to memorize large amounts of training data, even if only present in a few examples. These capabilities are often desirable in evaluation on tasks such as question answering but raise questions about whether these models can exhibit genuine reasoning or succeed only at mimicking patterns from the training data. This distinction is particularly salient in forecasting tasks, where the answer is not present in the training data, and the model must reason to make logical deductions. We present Reasoning and Tools for Forecasting (RTF), a framework of reasoning-and-acting (ReAct) agents that can dynamically retrieve updated information and run numerical simulation with equipped tools. We evaluate our model with questions from competitive forecasting platforms and demonstrate that our method is competitive with and can outperform human predictions. This suggests that LMs, with the right tools, can indeed think and adapt like humans, offering valuable insights for real-world decision-making.

How can a robot efficiently extract a desired object from a shelf when it is fully occluded by other objects? Prior works propose geometric approaches for this problem but do not consider object semantics. Shelves in pharmacies, restaurant kitchens, and grocery stores are often organized such that semantically similar objects are placed close to one another. Can large language models (LLMs) serve as semantic knowledge sources to accelerate robotic mechanical search in semantically arranged environments? With Semantic Spatial Search on Shelves (S^4), we use LLMs to generate affinity matrices, where entries correspond to semantic likelihood of physical proximity between objects. We derive semantic spatial distributions by synthesizing semantics with learned geometric constraints. S^4 incorporates Optical Character Recognition (OCR) and semantic refinement with predictions from ViLD, an open-vocabulary object detection model. Simulation experiments suggest that semantic spatial search reduces the search time relative to pure spatial search by an average of 24% across three domains: pharmacy, kitchen, and office shelves. A manually collected dataset of 100 semantic scenes suggests that OCR and semantic refinement improve object detection accuracy by 35%. Lastly, physical experiments in a pharmacy shelf suggest 47.1% improvement over pure spatial search. Supplementary material can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/s4-rss/home.

We present the Bayesian Linguistic Forecaster (BLF), an agentic system for binary forecasting that achieves state-of-the-art performance on the ForecastBench benchmark. The system is built on three ideas. (1) Linguistic belief state: a semi-structured representation combining numerical probability estimates with natural-language evidence summaries, updated by the LLM at each step of an iterative tool-use loop. This contrasts with the common approach of appending all retrieved evidence to an ever-growing, unstructured context. (2) Hierarchical multi-trial aggregation: running K independent trials and combining them using logit-space averaging shrinkage with a data-dependent prior. (3) Hierarchical calibration: Platt scaling with a hierarchical prior, which avoids over-shrinking extreme predictions for sources with skewed base rates. On 400 questions from the ForecastBench leaderboard, BLF outperforms all the top public methods, including Cassi, GPT-5, Grok~4.20, and Foresight-32B. Careful ablation studies, using mixed effects analysis to control for question variability (which accounts for 62\% of the variance in performance), reveals that all 3 components contribute to the overall gains, but some components matter more than others, depending on the base LLM, and the setting (e.g.\ with or without a crowd prior). All our experiments are based on a robust back-testing framework which we develop, which has a leakage rate below 1.5\%, and may be of independent interest.

Forecasting from partial observations is central to world modeling. Many recent methods represent the world through images, and reduce forecasting to stochastic video generation. Although such methods excel at realism and visual fidelity, predicting pixels is computationally intensive and not directly useful in many applications, as it requires translating RGB into signals useful for decision making. An alternative approach uses features from vision foundation models (VFMs) as world representations, performing deterministic regression to predict future world states. These features can be directly translated into actionable signals such as semantic segmentation and depth, while remaining computationally efficient. However, deterministic regression averages over multiple plausible futures, undermining forecast accuracy by failing to capture uncertainty. To address this crucial limitation, we introduce a generative forecaster that performs autoregressive flow matching in VFM feature space. Our key insight is that generative modeling in this space requires encoding VFM features into a compact latent space suitable for diffusion. We show that this latent space preserves information more effectively than previously used PCA-based alternatives, both for forecasting and other applications, such as image generation. Our latent predictions can be easily decoded into multiple useful and interpretable output modalities: semantic segmentation, depth, surface normals, and even RGB. With matched architecture and compute, our method produces sharper and more accurate predictions than regression across all modalities. Our results suggest that stochastic conditional generation of VFM features offers a promising and scalable foundation for future world models.

Scene completion and forecasting are two popular perception problems in research for mobile agents like autonomous vehicles. Existing approaches treat the two problems in isolation, resulting in a separate perception of the two aspects. In this paper, we introduce a novel LiDAR perception task of Occupancy Completion and Forecasting (OCF) in the context of autonomous driving to unify these aspects into a cohesive framework. This task requires new algorithms to address three challenges altogether: (1) sparse-to-dense reconstruction, (2) partial-to-complete hallucination, and (3) 3D-to-4D prediction. To enable supervision and evaluation, we curate a large-scale dataset termed OCFBench from public autonomous driving datasets. We analyze the performance of closely related existing baseline models and our own ones on our dataset. We envision that this research will inspire and call for further investigation in this evolving and crucial area of 4D perception. Our code for data curation and baseline implementation is available at https://github.com/ai4ce/Occ4cast.

Planning with world models offers a powerful paradigm for robotic control. Conventional approaches train a model to predict future frames conditioned on current frames and actions, which can then be used for planning. However, the objective of predicting future pixels is often at odds with the actual planning objective; strong pixel reconstruction does not always correlate with good planning decisions. This paper posits that instead of reconstructing future frames as pixels, world models only need to predict task-relevant semantic information about the future. For such prediction the paper poses world modeling as a visual question answering problem about semantic information in future frames. This perspective allows world modeling to be approached with the same tools underlying vision language models. Thus vision language models can be trained as "semantic" world models through a supervised finetuning process on image-action-text data, enabling planning for decision-making while inheriting many of the generalization and robustness properties from the pretrained vision-language models. The paper demonstrates how such a semantic world model can be used for policy improvement on open-ended robotics tasks, leading to significant generalization improvements over typical paradigms of reconstruction-based action-conditional world modeling. Website available at https://weirdlabuw.github.io/swm.

Buildings are a central feature of human culture and are increasingly being analyzed with computational methods. However, recent works on computational building understanding have largely focused on natural imagery of buildings, neglecting the fundamental element defining a building's structure -- its floorplan. Conversely, existing works on floorplan understanding are extremely limited in scope, often focusing on floorplans of a single semantic category and region (e.g. floorplans of apartments from a single country). In this work, we introduce WAFFLE, a novel multimodal floorplan understanding dataset of nearly 20K floorplan images and metadata curated from Internet data spanning diverse building types, locations, and data formats. By using a large language model and multimodal foundation models, we curate and extract semantic information from these images and their accompanying noisy metadata. We show that WAFFLE enables progress on new building understanding tasks, both discriminative and generative, which were not feasible using prior datasets. We will publicly release WAFFLE along with our code and trained models, providing the research community with a new foundation for learning the semantics of buildings.

Existing vision-based 3D occupancy prediction methods are inherently limited in accuracy due to their exclusive reliance on street-view imagery, neglecting the potential benefits of incorporating satellite views. We propose SA-Occ, the first Satellite-Assisted 3D occupancy prediction model, which leverages GPS & IMU to integrate historical yet readily available satellite imagery into real-time applications, effectively mitigating limitations of ego-vehicle perceptions, involving occlusions and degraded performance in distant regions. To address the core challenges of cross-view perception, we propose: 1) Dynamic-Decoupling Fusion, which resolves inconsistencies in dynamic regions caused by the temporal asynchrony between satellite and street views; 2) 3D-Proj Guidance, a module that enhances 3D feature extraction from inherently 2D satellite imagery; and 3) Uniform Sampling Alignment, which aligns the sampling density between street and satellite views. Evaluated on Occ3D-nuScenes, SA-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance, especially among single-frame methods, with a 39.05% mIoU (a 6.97% improvement), while incurring only 6.93 ms of additional latency per frame. Our code and newly curated dataset are available at https://github.com/chenchen235/SA-Occ.

This technical report describes the AIA Forecaster, a Large Language Model (LLM)-based system for judgmental forecasting using unstructured data. The AIA Forecaster approach combines three core elements: agentic search over high-quality news sources, a supervisor agent that reconciles disparate forecasts for the same event, and a set of statistical calibration techniques to counter behavioral biases in large language models. On the ForecastBench benchmark (Karger et al., 2024), the AIA Forecaster achieves performance equal to human superforecasters, surpassing prior LLM baselines. In addition to reporting on ForecastBench, we also introduce a more challenging forecasting benchmark sourced from liquid prediction markets. While the AIA Forecaster underperforms market consensus on this benchmark, an ensemble combining AIA Forecaster with market consensus outperforms consensus alone, demonstrating that our forecaster provides additive information. Our work establishes a new state of the art in AI forecasting and provides practical, transferable recommendations for future research. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that verifiably achieves expert-level forecasting at scale.

The 3D occupancy prediction task has witnessed remarkable progress in recent years, playing a crucial role in vision-based autonomous driving systems. While traditional methods are limited to fixed semantic categories, recent approaches have moved towards predicting text-aligned features to enable open-vocabulary text queries in real-world scenes. However, there exists a trade-off in text-aligned scene modeling: sparse Gaussian representation struggles to capture small objects in the scene, while dense representation incurs significant computational overhead. To address these limitations, we present PG-Occ, an innovative Progressive Gaussian Transformer Framework that enables open-vocabulary 3D occupancy prediction. Our framework employs progressive online densification, a feed-forward strategy that gradually enhances the 3D Gaussian representation to capture fine-grained scene details. By iteratively enhancing the representation, the framework achieves increasingly precise and detailed scene understanding. Another key contribution is the introduction of an anisotropy-aware sampling strategy with spatio-temporal fusion, which adaptively assigns receptive fields to Gaussians at different scales and stages, enabling more effective feature aggregation and richer scene information capture. Through extensive evaluations, we demonstrate that PG-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance with a relative 14.3% mIoU improvement over the previous best performing method. Code and pretrained models will be released upon publication on our project page: https://yanchi-3dv.github.io/PG-Occ

3D semantic occupancy prediction has become a crucial perception task for comprehensive scene understanding in autonomous driving. While recent advances have explored 3D Gaussian splatting for occupancy modeling to substantially reduce computational overhead, the generation of high-quality 3D Gaussians relies heavily on accurate geometric cues, which are often insufficient in purely vision-centric paradigms. To bridge this gap, we advocate for injecting the strong geometric grounding capability from Vision Foundation Models (VFMs) into occupancy prediction. In this regard, we introduce Visual Geometry Grounded Gaussian Splatting (VG3S), a novel framework that empowers Gaussian-based occupancy prediction with cross-view 3D geometric grounding. Specifically, to fully exploit the rich 3D geometric priors from a frozen VFM, we propose a plug-and-play hierarchical geometric feature adapter, which can effectively transform generic VFM tokens via feature aggregation, task-specific alignment, and multi-scale restructuring. Extensive experiments on the nuScenes occupancy benchmark demonstrate that VG3S achieves remarkable improvements of 12.6% in IoU and 7.5% in mIoU over the baseline. Furthermore, we show that VG3S generalizes seamlessly across diverse VFMs, consistently enhancing occupancy prediction accuracy and firmly underscoring the immense value of integrating priors derived from powerful, pre-trained geometry-grounded VFMs.

Relying on in-domain annotations and precise sensor-rig priors, existing 3D occupancy prediction methods are limited in both scalability and out-of-domain generalization. While recent visual geometry foundation models exhibit strong generalization capabilities, they were mainly designed for general purposes and lack one or more key ingredients required for urban occupancy prediction, namely metric prediction, geometry completion in cluttered scenes and adaptation to urban scenarios. We address this gap and present OccAny, the first unconstrained urban 3D occupancy model capable of operating on out-of-domain uncalibrated scenes to predict and complete metric occupancy coupled with segmentation features. OccAny is versatile and can predict occupancy from sequential, monocular, or surround-view images. Our contributions are three-fold: (i) we propose the first generalized 3D occupancy framework with (ii) Segmentation Forcing that improves occupancy quality while enabling mask-level prediction, and (iii) a Novel View Rendering pipeline that infers novel-view geometry to enable test-time view augmentation for geometry completion. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OccAny outperforms all visual geometry baselines on 3D occupancy prediction task, while remaining competitive with in-domain self-supervised methods across three input settings on two established urban occupancy prediction datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/valeoai/OccAny .

Embodied intelligence requires high-fidelity simulation environments to support perception and decision-making, yet existing platforms often suffer from data contamination and limited flexibility. To mitigate this, we propose World2Minecraft to convert real-world scenes into structured Minecraft environments based on 3D semantic occupancy prediction. In the reconstructed scenes, we can effortlessly perform downstream tasks such as Vision-Language Navigation(VLN). However, we observe that reconstruction quality heavily depends on accurate occupancy prediction, which remains limited by data scarcity and poor generalization in existing models. We introduce a low-cost, automated, and scalable data acquisition pipeline for creating customized occupancy datasets, and demonstrate its effectiveness through MinecraftOcc, a large-scale dataset featuring 100,165 images from 156 richly detailed indoor scenes. Extensive experiments show that our dataset provides a critical complement to existing datasets and poses a significant challenge to current SOTA methods. These findings contribute to improving occupancy prediction and highlight the value of World2Minecraft in providing a customizable and editable platform for personalized embodied AI research. Project page:https://world2minecraft.github.io/.

3D occupancy prediction holds significant promise in the fields of robot perception and autonomous driving, which quantifies 3D scenes into grid cells with semantic labels. Recent works mainly utilize complete occupancy labels in 3D voxel space for supervision. However, the expensive annotation process and sometimes ambiguous labels have severely constrained the usability and scalability of 3D occupancy models. To address this, we present RenderOcc, a novel paradigm for training 3D occupancy models only using 2D labels. Specifically, we extract a NeRF-style 3D volume representation from multi-view images, and employ volume rendering techniques to establish 2D renderings, thus enabling direct 3D supervision from 2D semantics and depth labels. Additionally, we introduce an Auxiliary Ray method to tackle the issue of sparse viewpoints in autonomous driving scenarios, which leverages sequential frames to construct comprehensive 2D rendering for each object. To our best knowledge, RenderOcc is the first attempt to train multi-view 3D occupancy models only using 2D labels, reducing the dependence on costly 3D occupancy annotations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RenderOcc achieves comparable performance to models fully supervised with 3D labels, underscoring the significance of this approach in real-world applications.

Online 3D occupancy prediction provides a comprehensive spatial understanding of embodied environments. While the innovative EmbodiedOcc framework utilizes 3D semantic Gaussians for progressive indoor occupancy prediction, it overlooks the geometric characteristics of indoor environments, which are primarily characterized by planar structures. This paper introduces EmbodiedOcc++, enhancing the original framework with two key innovations: a Geometry-guided Refinement Module (GRM) that constrains Gaussian updates through plane regularization, along with a Semantic-aware Uncertainty Sampler (SUS) that enables more effective updates in overlapping regions between consecutive frames. GRM regularizes the position update to align with surface normals. It determines the adaptive regularization weight using curvature-based and depth-based constraints, allowing semantic Gaussians to align accurately with planar surfaces while adapting in complex regions. To effectively improve geometric consistency from different views, SUS adaptively selects proper Gaussians to update. Comprehensive experiments on the EmbodiedOcc-ScanNet benchmark demonstrate that EmbodiedOcc++ achieves state-of-the-art performance across different settings. Our method demonstrates improved edge accuracy and retains more geometric details while ensuring computational efficiency, which is essential for online embodied perception. The code will be released at: https://github.com/PKUHaoWang/EmbodiedOcc2.

Large language models (LLMs) have recently been applied to forecasting tasks, with some works claiming these systems match or exceed human performance. In this paper, we argue that, as a community, we should be careful about such conclusions as evaluating LLM forecasters presents unique challenges. We identify two broad categories of issues: (1) difficulty in trusting evaluation results due to many forms of temporal leakage, and (2) difficulty in extrapolating from evaluation performance to real-world forecasting. Through systematic analysis and concrete examples from prior work, we demonstrate how evaluation flaws can raise concerns about current and future performance claims. We argue that more rigorous evaluation methodologies are needed to confidently assess the forecasting abilities of LLMs.

Time-series forecasting in real-world applications such as finance and energy often faces challenges due to limited training data and complex, noisy temporal dynamics. Existing deep forecasting models typically supervise predictions using full-length temporal windows, which include substantial high-frequency noise and obscure long-term trends. Moreover, auxiliary variables containing rich domain-specific information are often underutilized, especially in few-shot settings. To address these challenges, we propose LoFT-LLM, a frequency-aware forecasting pipeline that integrates low-frequency learning with semantic calibration via a large language model (LLM). Firstly, a Patch Low-Frequency forecasting Module (PLFM) extracts stable low-frequency trends from localized spectral patches. Secondly, a residual learner then models high-frequency variations. Finally, a fine-tuned LLM refines the predictions by incorporating auxiliary context and domain knowledge through structured natural language prompts. Extensive experiments on financial and energy datasets demonstrate that LoFT-LLM significantly outperforms strong baselines under both full-data and few-shot regimes, delivering superior accuracy, robustness, and interpretability.

High-stakes decision making involves reasoning under uncertainty about the future. In this work, we train language models to make predictions on open-ended forecasting questions. To scale up training data, we synthesize novel forecasting questions from global events reported in daily news, using a fully automated, careful curation recipe. We train the Qwen3 thinking models on our dataset, OpenForesight. To prevent leakage of future information during training and evaluation, we use an offline news corpus, both for data generation and retrieval in our forecasting system. Guided by a small validation set, we show the benefits of retrieval, and an improved reward function for reinforcement learning (RL). Once we obtain our final forecasting system, we perform held-out testing between May to August 2025. Our specialized model, OpenForecaster 8B, matches much larger proprietary models, with our training improving the accuracy, calibration, and consistency of predictions. We find calibration improvements from forecasting training generalize across popular benchmarks. We open-source all our models, code, and data to make research on language model forecasting broadly accessible.

It is unclear whether strong forecasting performance reflects genuine temporal understanding or the ability to reason under contextual and event-driven conditions. We introduce TemporalBench, a multi-domain benchmark designed to evaluate temporal reasoning behavior under progressively richer informational settings. TemporalBench adopts a four-tier task taxonomy that examines historical structure interpretation, context-free forecasting, contextual temporal reasoning, and event-conditioned prediction across four real-world domains: retail, healthcare, energy, and physical systems. By controlling access to future targets and contextual information, the benchmark enables a diagnostic analysis of whether models can correctly interpret temporal patterns, align them with external context, and adapt predictions when conditions change. Extensive baseline experiments show that strong numerical forecasting accuracy does not reliably translate into robust contextual or event-aware temporal reasoning; instead, existing agent frameworks exhibit fragmented strengths and systematic failure modes that remain largely hidden under forecasting-only benchmarks. The TemporalBench dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/Melady/TemporalBench, and we additionally provide a public leaderboard at https://huggingface.co/spaces/Melady/TemporalBench_Leaderboard.

We address the problem of incrementally modeling and forecasting long-term goals of a first-person camera wearer: what the user will do, where they will go, and what goal they seek. In contrast to prior work in trajectory forecasting, our algorithm, DARKO, goes further to reason about semantic states (will I pick up an object?), and future goal states that are far in terms of both space and time. DARKO learns and forecasts from first-person visual observations of the user's daily behaviors via an Online Inverse Reinforcement Learning (IRL) approach. Classical IRL discovers only the rewards in a batch setting, whereas DARKO discovers the states, transitions, rewards, and goals of a user from streaming data. Among other results, we show DARKO forecasts goals better than competing methods in both noisy and ideal settings, and our approach is theoretically and empirically no-regret.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable potential in time series forecasting, their practical deployment remains constrained by excessive computational demands and memory footprints. Existing LLM-based approaches typically suffer from three critical limitations: Inefficient parameter utilization in handling numerical time series patterns; Modality misalignment between continuous temporal signals and discrete text embeddings; and Inflexibility for real-time expert knowledge integration. We present SMETimes, the first systematic investigation of sub-3B parameter SLMs for efficient and accurate time series forecasting. Our approach centers on three key innovations: A statistically-enhanced prompting mechanism that bridges numerical time series with textual semantics through descriptive statistical features; A adaptive fusion embedding architecture that aligns temporal patterns with language model token spaces through learnable parameters; And a dynamic mixture-of-experts framework enabled by SLMs' computational efficiency, adaptively combining base predictions with domain-specific models. Extensive evaluations across seven benchmark datasets demonstrate that our 3B-parameter SLM achieves state-of-the-art performance on five primary datasets while maintaining 3.8x faster training and 5.2x lower memory consumption compared to 7B-parameter LLM baselines. Notably, the proposed model exhibits better learning capabilities, achieving 12.3% lower MSE than conventional LLM. Ablation studies validate that our statistical prompting and cross-modal fusion modules respectively contribute 15.7% and 18.2% error reduction in long-horizon forecasting tasks. By redefining the efficiency-accuracy trade-off landscape, this work establishes SLMs as viable alternatives to resource-intensive LLMs for practical time series forecasting. Code and models are available at https://github.com/xiyan1234567/SMETimes.

3D semantic occupancy prediction is crucial for autonomous driving. While multi-modal fusion improves accuracy over vision-only methods, it typically relies on computationally expensive dense voxel or BEV tensors. We present Gau-Occ, a multi-modal framework that bypasses dense volumetric processing by modeling the scene as a compact collection of semantic 3D Gaussians. To ensure geometric completeness, we propose a LiDAR Completion Diffuser (LCD) that recovers missing structures from sparse LiDAR to initialize robust Gaussian anchors. Furthermore, we introduce Gaussian Anchor Fusion (GAF), which efficiently integrates multi-view image semantics via geometry-aligned 2D sampling and cross-modal alignment. By refining these compact Gaussian descriptors, Gau-Occ captures both spatial consistency and semantic discriminability. Extensive experiments across challenging benchmarks demonstrate that Gau-Occ achieves state-of-the-art performance with significant computational efficiency.

Accurately predicting the future would be an important milestone in the capabilities of artificial intelligence. However, research on the ability of large language models to provide probabilistic predictions about future events remains nascent. To empirically test this ability, we enrolled OpenAI's state-of-the-art large language model, GPT-4, in a three-month forecasting tournament hosted on the Metaculus platform. The tournament, running from July to October 2023, attracted 843 participants and covered diverse topics including Big Tech, U.S. politics, viral outbreaks, and the Ukraine conflict. Focusing on binary forecasts, we show that GPT-4's probabilistic forecasts are significantly less accurate than the median human-crowd forecasts. We find that GPT-4's forecasts did not significantly differ from the no-information forecasting strategy of assigning a 50% probability to every question. We explore a potential explanation, that GPT-4 might be predisposed to predict probabilities close to the midpoint of the scale, but our data do not support this hypothesis. Overall, we find that GPT-4 significantly underperforms in real-world predictive tasks compared to median human-crowd forecasts. A potential explanation for this underperformance is that in real-world forecasting tournaments, the true answers are genuinely unknown at the time of prediction; unlike in other benchmark tasks like professional exams or time series forecasting, where strong performance may at least partly be due to the answers being memorized from the training data. This makes real-world forecasting tournaments an ideal environment for testing the generalized reasoning and prediction capabilities of artificial intelligence going forward.

Motion forecasting is an essential task for autonomous driving, and utilizing information from infrastructure and other vehicles can enhance forecasting capabilities. Existing research mainly focuses on leveraging single-frame cooperative information to enhance the limited perception capability of the ego vehicle, while underutilizing the motion and interaction context of traffic participants observed from cooperative devices. In this paper, we propose a forecasting-oriented representation paradigm to utilize motion and interaction features from cooperative information. Specifically, we present V2X-Graph, a representative framework to achieve interpretable and end-to-end trajectory feature fusion for cooperative motion forecasting. V2X-Graph is evaluated on V2X-Seq in vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) scenarios. To further evaluate on vehicle-to-everything (V2X) scenario, we construct the first real-world V2X motion forecasting dataset V2X-Traj, which contains multiple autonomous vehicles and infrastructure in every scenario. Experimental results on both V2X-Seq and V2X-Traj show the advantage of our method. We hope both V2X-Graph and V2X-Traj will benefit the further development of cooperative motion forecasting. Find the project at https://github.com/AIR-THU/V2X-Graph.

Navigating complex, densely packed environments like retail stores, warehouses, and hospitals poses a significant spatial grounding challenge for humans and embodied AI. In these spaces, dense visual features quickly become stale given the quasi-static nature of items, and long-tail semantic distributions challenge traditional computer vision. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) help assistive systems navigate semantically-rich spaces, they still struggle with spatial grounding in cluttered environments. We present GIST (Grounded Intelligent Semantic Topology), a multimodal knowledge extraction pipeline that transforms a consumer-grade mobile point cloud into a semantically annotated navigation topology. Our architecture distills the scene into a 2D occupancy map, extracts its topological layout, and overlays a lightweight semantic layer via intelligent keyframe and semantic selection. We demonstrate the versatility of this structured spatial knowledge through critical downstream Human-AI interaction tasks: (1) an intent-driven Semantic Search engine that actively infers categorical alternatives and zones when exact matches fail; (2) a one-shot Semantic Localizer achieving a 1.04 m top-5 mean translation error; (3) a Zone Classification module that segments the walkable floor plan into high-level semantic regions; and (4) a Visually-Grounded Instruction Generator that synthesizes optimal paths into egocentric, landmark-rich natural language routing. In multi-criteria LLM evaluations, GIST outperforms sequence-based instruction generation baselines. Finally, an in-situ formative evaluation (N=5) yields an 80% navigation success rate relying solely on verbal cues, validating the system's capacity for universal design.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Large language models are moving from static text generators toward real-world decision-support systems, where forecasting is a composite capability that links information gathering, evidence integration, situational judgment, and action-oriented decision making. This capability is in broad demand across finance, policy, industry, and scientific research, yet its evaluation remains difficult: live benchmarks evaluate forecasts before answers exist, making them the cleanest way to measure forecasting ability, but they expire once events resolve; retrospective benchmarks are reproducible, but they cannot reliably distinguish genuine forecasting from facts a model may have already learned during pretraining. Prompting models to "pretend not to know" cannot replace a genuine knowledge boundary. We propose OracleProto, a reproducible framework for evaluating LLM native forecasting capability. OracleProto reconstructs resolved events into time-bounded forecasting samples by combining model-cutoff-aligned sample admission, tool-level temporal masking, content-level leakage detection, discrete answer normalization, and hierarchical scoring. Instantiated on a FutureX-Past-derived dataset with six contemporary LLMs, OracleProto distinguishes forecasting quality, sampling stability, and cost efficiency under controlled information boundaries, while reducing residual leakage to the 1% level, an order of magnitude below tool-only temporal filtering. OracleProto turns LLM forecasting from one-off evaluation into an auditable, reusable, and trainable dataset-level capability, providing a unified interface for fair cross-model comparison and a controlled signal source for downstream SFT and RL. Code and data are available at https://github.com/MaYiding/OracleProto and https://huggingface.co/datasets/MaYiding/OracleProto.

3D scene understanding plays a vital role in vision-based autonomous driving. While most existing methods focus on 3D object detection, they have difficulty describing real-world objects of arbitrary shapes and infinite classes. Towards a more comprehensive perception of a 3D scene, in this paper, we propose a SurroundOcc method to predict the 3D occupancy with multi-camera images. We first extract multi-scale features for each image and adopt spatial 2D-3D attention to lift them to the 3D volume space. Then we apply 3D convolutions to progressively upsample the volume features and impose supervision on multiple levels. To obtain dense occupancy prediction, we design a pipeline to generate dense occupancy ground truth without expansive occupancy annotations. Specifically, we fuse multi-frame LiDAR scans of dynamic objects and static scenes separately. Then we adopt Poisson Reconstruction to fill the holes and voxelize the mesh to get dense occupancy labels. Extensive experiments on nuScenes and SemanticKITTI datasets demonstrate the superiority of our method. Code and dataset are available at https://github.com/weiyithu/SurroundOcc

Versatile and adaptive semantic understanding would enable autonomous systems to comprehend and interact with their surroundings. Existing fixed-class models limit the adaptability of indoor mobile and assistive autonomous systems. In this work, we introduce LEXIS, a real-time indoor Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM) system that harnesses the open-vocabulary nature of Large Language Models (LLMs) to create a unified approach to scene understanding and place recognition. The approach first builds a topological SLAM graph of the environment (using visual-inertial odometry) and embeds Contrastive Language-Image Pretraining (CLIP) features in the graph nodes. We use this representation for flexible room classification and segmentation, serving as a basis for room-centric place recognition. This allows loop closure searches to be directed towards semantically relevant places. Our proposed system is evaluated using both public, simulated data and real-world data, covering office and home environments. It successfully categorizes rooms with varying layouts and dimensions and outperforms the state-of-the-art (SOTA). For place recognition and trajectory estimation tasks we achieve equivalent performance to the SOTA, all also utilizing the same pre-trained model. Lastly, we demonstrate the system's potential for planning.

Satellite image time-series analysis demands fine-grained spatial-temporal reasoning, which remains a challenge for existing multimodal large language models (MLLMs). In this work, we study the capabilities of MLLMs on a novel task that jointly targets temporal change understanding and future scene generation, aiming to assess their potential for modeling complex multimodal dynamics over time. We propose TAMMs, a Temporal-Aware Multimodal Model for satellite image change understanding and forecasting, which enhances frozen MLLMs with lightweight temporal modules for structured sequence encoding and contextual prompting. To guide future image generation, TAMMs introduces a Semantic-Fused Control Injection (SFCI) mechanism that adaptively combines high-level semantic reasoning and structural priors within an enhanced ControlNet. This dual-path conditioning enables temporally consistent and semantically grounded image synthesis. Experiments demonstrate that TAMMs outperforms strong MLLM baselines in both temporal change understanding and future image forecasting tasks, highlighting how carefully designed temporal reasoning and semantic fusion can unlock the full potential of MLLMs for spatio-temporal understanding.

Time series forecasting has traditionally focused on univariate and multivariate numerical data, often overlooking the benefits of incorporating multimodal information, particularly textual data. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that integrates time series models with Large Language Models to improve high-dimensional time series forecasting. Inspired by multimodal models, our method combines time series and textual data in the dual-tower structure. This fusion of information creates a comprehensive representation, which is then processed through a linear layer to generate the final forecast. Extensive experiments demonstrate that incorporating text enhances high-dimensional time series forecasting performance. This work paves the way for further research in multimodal time series forecasting.

World modeling has become a cornerstone in AI research, enabling agents to understand, represent, and predict the dynamic environments they inhabit. While prior work largely emphasizes generative methods for 2D image and video data, they overlook the rapidly growing body of work that leverages native 3D and 4D representations such as RGB-D imagery, occupancy grids, and LiDAR point clouds for large-scale scene modeling. At the same time, the absence of a standardized definition and taxonomy for ``world models'' has led to fragmented and sometimes inconsistent claims in the literature. This survey addresses these gaps by presenting the first comprehensive review explicitly dedicated to 3D and 4D world modeling and generation. We establish precise definitions, introduce a structured taxonomy spanning video-based (VideoGen), occupancy-based (OccGen), and LiDAR-based (LiDARGen) approaches, and systematically summarize datasets and evaluation metrics tailored to 3D/4D settings. We further discuss practical applications, identify open challenges, and highlight promising research directions, aiming to provide a coherent and foundational reference for advancing the field. A systematic summary of existing literature is available at https://github.com/worldbench/survey

Global human motion forecasting is important in many fields, which is the combination of global human trajectory prediction and local human pose prediction. Visual and social information are often used to boost model performance, however, they may consume too much computational resource. In this paper, we establish a simple but effective baseline for single human motion forecasting without visual and social information, equipped with useful training tricks. Our method "futuremotion_ICCV21" outperforms existing methods by a large margin on SoMoF benchmark. We hope our work provide new ideas for future research.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have shown strong vision-language reasoning abilities but still lack robust 3D spatial understanding, which is critical for autonomous driving. This limitation stems from two key challenges: (1) the difficulty of constructing accessible yet effective 3D representations without expensive manual annotations, and (2) the loss of fine-grained spatial details in VLMs due to the absence of large-scale 3D vision-language pretraining. To address these challenges, we propose OccVLA, a novel framework that integrates 3D occupancy representations into a unified multimodal reasoning process. Unlike prior approaches that rely on explicit 3D inputs, OccVLA treats dense 3D occupancy as both a predictive output and a supervisory signal, enabling the model to learn fine-grained spatial structures directly from 2D visual inputs. The occupancy predictions are regarded as implicit reasoning processes and can be skipped during inference without performance degradation, thereby adding no extra computational overhead. OccVLA achieves state-of-the-art results on the nuScenes benchmark for trajectory planning and demonstrates superior performance on 3D visual question-answering tasks, offering a scalable, interpretable, and fully vision-based solution for autonomous driving.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.

Motivated by recent advances in large language models for Natural Language Processing (NLP), we design a time-series foundation model for forecasting whose out-of-the-box zero-shot performance on a variety of public datasets comes close to the accuracy of state-of-the-art supervised forecasting models for each individual dataset. Our model is based on pretraining a patched-decoder style attention model on a large time-series corpus, and can work well across different forecasting history lengths, prediction lengths and temporal granularities.

Navigation in unfamiliar environments presents a major challenge for robots: while mapping and planning techniques can be used to build up a representation of the world, quickly discovering a path to a desired goal in unfamiliar settings with such methods often requires lengthy mapping and exploration. Humans can rapidly navigate new environments, particularly indoor environments that are laid out logically, by leveraging semantics -- e.g., a kitchen often adjoins a living room, an exit sign indicates the way out, and so forth. Language models can provide robots with such knowledge, but directly using language models to instruct a robot how to reach some destination can also be impractical: while language models might produce a narrative about how to reach some goal, because they are not grounded in real-world observations, this narrative might be arbitrarily wrong. Therefore, in this paper we study how the ``semantic guesswork'' produced by language models can be utilized as a guiding heuristic for planning algorithms. Our method, Language Frontier Guide (LFG), uses the language model to bias exploration of novel real-world environments by incorporating the semantic knowledge stored in language models as a search heuristic for planning with either topological or metric maps. We evaluate LFG in challenging real-world environments and simulated benchmarks, outperforming uninformed exploration and other ways of using language models.

Context-aided forecasting (CAF) holds promise for integrating domain knowledge and forward-looking information, enabling AI systems to surpass traditional statistical methods. However, recent empirical studies reveal a puzzling gap: multimodal models often fail to outperform their unimodal counterparts. We hypothesize that this underperformance stems from poor context quality in existing datasets, as verification is challenging. To address these limitations, we introduce a semi-synthetic data augmentation method that generates contexts both descriptive of temporal dynamics and verifiably complementary to numerical histories. This approach enables massive-scale dataset creation, resulting in CAF-7M, a corpus of 7 million context-augmented time series windows, including a rigorously verified test set. We demonstrate that semi-synthetic pre-training transfers effectively to real-world evaluation, and show clear evidence of context utilization. Our results suggest that dataset quality, rather than architectural limitations, has been the primary bottleneck in context-aided forecasting.

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

The vision-based perception for autonomous driving has undergone a transformation from the bird-eye-view (BEV) representations to the 3D semantic occupancy. Compared with the BEV planes, the 3D semantic occupancy further provides structural information along the vertical direction. This paper presents OccFormer, a dual-path transformer network to effectively process the 3D volume for semantic occupancy prediction. OccFormer achieves a long-range, dynamic, and efficient encoding of the camera-generated 3D voxel features. It is obtained by decomposing the heavy 3D processing into the local and global transformer pathways along the horizontal plane. For the occupancy decoder, we adapt the vanilla Mask2Former for 3D semantic occupancy by proposing preserve-pooling and class-guided sampling, which notably mitigate the sparsity and class imbalance. Experimental results demonstrate that OccFormer significantly outperforms existing methods for semantic scene completion on SemanticKITTI dataset and for LiDAR semantic segmentation on nuScenes dataset. Code is available at https://github.com/zhangyp15/OccFormer.

Understanding urban wellbeing from multimodal data requires integrating heterogeneous spatial and temporal signals, posing significant challenges for current multimodal large language models (MLLMs). We introduce UrbanWell, a large-scale benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the spatio-temporal reasoning capabilities of MLLMs for urban wellbeing analytics through joint modeling of satellite and street view imagery. UrbanWell spans 38 cities across multiple years and includes diverse indicators covering (1) environmental conditions (CO_2, NO_2, PM{2.5}, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), (2) spatial accessibility (minimum distance to supermarkets and restaurants), (3) urban form (road length, road density, and land use), (4) urban vitality (population, economic activity diversity, and land use diversity), and (5) subjective perception attributes (e.g., safety, beauty, liveliness, wealth, and quietness). All indicators are aligned at grid level to enable standardized evaluation. Beyond static prediction, UrbanWell defines temporal reasoning tasks, including future value forecasting from historical observations and temporal trend classification. We benchmark 15 state-of-the-art representative MLLMs in a zero-shot setting, providing a comprehensive comparative evaluation across spatial and temporal dimensions. Experimental results indicate that while MLLMs capture salient spatial and perceptual cues, their performance varies substantially across heterogeneous urban indicators spanning environment and subjective perception. UrbanWell serves as a unified benchmark for evaluating multimodal spatial and temporal reasoning in urban wellbeing analytics, offering a standardized testbed for systematic assessment and future research on multimodal urban intelligence. Our codes and datasets are accessible via https://github.com/axin1301/UrbanWell-Benchmark.

Large language models fine-tuned for forecasting can be accurate yet poorly calibrated, and their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning may not faithfully reflect the evidence behind a forecast. We ask whether internal representations offer a more direct window into both. Working with Eternis-Forecaster 8B on OpenForesight, we train representation-pooling probes on intermediate activations and find they achieve substantially better calibration; a result that also holds for GLM-4.7-Flash and GLM-4.5-Air. We then assess CoT faithfulness through evidence ablation and diversionary injection: removing an influential source in the prompt often changes the model's forecast while leaving the reasoning trace untouched. The same probes function as lie detectors: their activations track behavioral shifts far better than the reasoning trace does, and they also predict the direction of change in 84% of cases, including when the CoT conceals the perturbation's influence. Finally, forced answering reveals that forecasts are largely fixed before reasoning begins: a single pre-reasoning pass recovers the committed answer and confidence, and routing questions by the spread of this pre-set answer distribution saves 30-47% of generated tokens, with no loss of accuracy. Together, these results establish probing internal representations as a practical tool for calibrating, auditing, and triaging language model forecasters and reasoning models more broadly.

Camera-based 3D occupancy prediction has recently garnered increasing attention in outdoor driving scenes. However, research in indoor scenes remains relatively unexplored. The core differences in indoor scenes lie in the complexity of scene scale and the variance in object size. In this paper, we propose a novel method, named ISO, for predicting indoor scene occupancy using monocular images. ISO harnesses the advantages of a pretrained depth model to achieve accurate depth predictions. Furthermore, we introduce the Dual Feature Line of Sight Projection (D-FLoSP) module within ISO, which enhances the learning of 3D voxel features. To foster further research in this domain, we introduce Occ-ScanNet, a large-scale occupancy benchmark for indoor scenes. With a dataset size 40 times larger than the NYUv2 dataset, it facilitates future scalable research in indoor scene analysis. Experimental results on both NYUv2 and Occ-ScanNet demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art performance. The dataset and code are made publicly at https://github.com/hongxiaoy/ISO.git.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have sparked growing interest in integrating language-driven techniques into trajectory prediction. By leveraging their semantic and reasoning capabilities, LLMs are reshaping how autonomous systems perceive, model, and predict trajectories. This survey provides a comprehensive overview of this emerging field, categorizing recent work into five directions: (1) Trajectory prediction via language modeling paradigms, (2) Direct trajectory prediction with pretrained language models, (3) Language-guided scene understanding for trajectory prediction, (4) Language-driven data generation for trajectory prediction, (5) Language-based reasoning and interpretability for trajectory prediction. For each, we analyze representative methods, highlight core design choices, and identify open challenges. This survey bridges natural language processing and trajectory prediction, offering a unified perspective on how language can enrich trajectory prediction.

Accurately predicting 3D occupancy grids from visual inputs is critical for autonomous driving, but current discriminative methods struggle with noisy data, incomplete observations, and the complex structures inherent in 3D scenes. In this work, we reframe 3D occupancy prediction as a generative modeling task using diffusion models, which learn the underlying data distribution and incorporate 3D scene priors. This approach enhances prediction consistency, noise robustness, and better handles the intricacies of 3D spatial structures. Our extensive experiments show that diffusion-based generative models outperform state-of-the-art discriminative approaches, delivering more realistic and accurate occupancy predictions, especially in occluded or low-visibility regions. Moreover, the improved predictions significantly benefit downstream planning tasks, highlighting the practical advantages of our method for real-world autonomous driving applications.

Planning safe robot motions in the presence of humans requires reliable forecasts of future human motion. However, simply predicting the most likely motion from prior interactions does not guarantee safety. Such forecasts fail to model the long tail of possible events, which are rarely observed in limited datasets. On the other hand, planning for worst-case motions leads to overtly conservative behavior and a "frozen robot". Instead, we aim to learn forecasts that predict counterfactuals that humans guard against. We propose a novel game-theoretic framework for joint planning and forecasting with the payoff being the performance of the planner against the demonstrator, and present practical algorithms to train models in an end-to-end fashion. We demonstrate that our proposed algorithm results in safer plans in a crowd navigation simulator and real-world datasets of pedestrian motion. We release our code at https://github.com/portal-cornell/Game-Theoretic-Forecasting-Planning.

Machine-based prediction of real-world events is garnering attention due to its potential for informed decision-making. Whereas traditional forecasting predominantly hinges on structured data like time-series, recent breakthroughs in language models enable predictions using unstructured text. In particular, (Zou et al., 2022) unveils AutoCast, a new benchmark that employs news articles for answering forecasting queries. Nevertheless, existing methods still trail behind human performance. The cornerstone of accurate forecasting, we argue, lies in identifying a concise, yet rich subset of news snippets from a vast corpus. With this motivation, we introduce AutoCast++, a zero-shot ranking-based context retrieval system, tailored to sift through expansive news document collections for event forecasting. Our approach first re-ranks articles based on zero-shot question-passage relevance, honing in on semantically pertinent news. Following this, the chosen articles are subjected to zero-shot summarization to attain succinct context. Leveraging a pre-trained language model, we conduct both the relevance evaluation and article summarization without needing domain-specific training. Notably, recent articles can sometimes be at odds with preceding ones due to new facts or unanticipated incidents, leading to fluctuating temporal dynamics. To tackle this, our re-ranking mechanism gives preference to more recent articles, and we further regularize the multi-passage representation learning to align with human forecaster responses made on different dates. Empirical results underscore marked improvements across multiple metrics, improving the performance for multiple-choice questions (MCQ) by 48% and true/false (TF) questions by up to 8%.

Time series forecasting in real-world settings often depends not only on historical observations, but also on external context that must be actively discovered from noisy, heterogeneous information sources. Yet existing context-aided forecasting benchmarks typically assume that the supporting context is already provided, leaving open whether agents can identify it on their own. Therefore, we introduce Dr-CiK, a benchmark for evaluating whether agents can retrieve forecasting-relevant supporting context from a document corpus, filter out distractors, distill the retrieved context into forecast-useful evidence, and generate forecasts supported by that evidence. Through context ablations and evaluations of state-of-the-art deep research and forecasting methods paired together, we show that high-quality context substantially improves forecasting performance in Dr-CiK. However, most existing DR agents recover only a small fraction of the ground-truth supporting evidence (usually <5%), are frequently misled by distractors (>80% distractor citations), and can cause forecasters to perform worse with retrieved context than without context. Our results motivate research on foresight-driven agents that search for the right context to predict the future.

Forecasting weather and climate events is crucial for making appropriate measures to mitigate environmental hazards and minimize losses. However, existing environmental forecasting research focuses narrowly on predicting numerical meteorological variables (e.g., temperature), neglecting the translation of these variables into actionable textual narratives of events and their consequences. To bridge this gap, we proposed Weather and Climate Event Forecasting (WCEF), a new task that leverages numerical meteorological raster data and textual event data to predict weather and climate events. This task is challenging to accomplish due to difficulties in aligning multimodal data and the lack of supervised datasets. To address these challenges, we present CLLMate, the first multimodal dataset for WCEF, using 26,156 environmental news articles aligned with ERA5 reanalysis data. We systematically benchmark 23 existing MLLMs on CLLMate, including closed-source, open-source, and our fine-tuned models. Our experiments reveal the advantages and limitations of existing MLLMs and the value of CLLMate for the training and benchmarking of the WCEF task.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have empowered LLM agents to autonomously collect world information, over which to conduct reasoning to solve complex problems. Given this capability, increasing interests have been put into employing LLM agents for predicting international events, which can influence decision-making and shape policy development on an international scale. Despite such a growing interest, there is a lack of a rigorous benchmark of LLM agents' forecasting capability and reliability. To address this gap, we introduce MIRAI, a novel benchmark designed to systematically evaluate LLM agents as temporal forecasters in the context of international events. Our benchmark features an agentic environment with tools for accessing an extensive database of historical, structured events and textual news articles. We refine the GDELT event database with careful cleaning and parsing to curate a series of relational prediction tasks with varying forecasting horizons, assessing LLM agents' abilities from short-term to long-term forecasting. We further implement APIs to enable LLM agents to utilize different tools via a code-based interface. In summary, MIRAI comprehensively evaluates the agents' capabilities in three dimensions: 1) autonomously source and integrate critical information from large global databases; 2) write codes using domain-specific APIs and libraries for tool-use; and 3) jointly reason over historical knowledge from diverse formats and time to accurately predict future events. Through comprehensive benchmarking, we aim to establish a reliable framework for assessing the capabilities of LLM agents in forecasting international events, thereby contributing to the development of more accurate and trustworthy models for international relation analysis.

Accuracy and timeliness are indeed often conflicting goals in prediction tasks. Premature predictions may yield a higher rate of false alarms, whereas delaying predictions to gather more information can render them too late to be useful. In applications such as wildfires, crimes, and traffic jams, timely forecasting are vital for safeguarding human life and property. Consequently, finding a balance between accuracy and timeliness is crucial. In this paper, we propose an early spatio-temporal forecasting model based on Multi-Objective reinforcement learning that can either implement an optimal policy given a preference or infer the preference based on a small number of samples. The model addresses two primary challenges: 1) enhancing the accuracy of early forecasting and 2) providing the optimal policy for determining the most suitable prediction time for each area. Our method demonstrates superior performance on three large-scale real-world datasets, surpassing existing methods in early spatio-temporal forecasting tasks.

This article presents a family of Stochastic Cartographic Occupancy Prediction Engines (SCOPEs) that enable mobile robots to predict the future states of complex dynamic environments. They do this by accounting for the motion of the robot itself, the motion of dynamic objects, and the geometry of static objects in the scene, and they generate a range of possible future states of the environment. These prediction engines are software-optimized for real-time performance for navigation in crowded dynamic scenes, achieving up to 89 times faster inference speed and 8 times less memory usage than other state-of-the-art engines. Three simulated and real-world datasets collected by different robot models are used to demonstrate that these proposed prediction algorithms are able to achieve more accurate and robust stochastic prediction performance than other algorithms. Furthermore, a series of simulation and hardware navigation experiments demonstrate that the proposed predictive uncertainty-aware navigation framework with these stochastic prediction engines is able to improve the safe navigation performance of current state-of-the-art model- and learning-based control policies.

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in data mining, driving rapid advancements across numerous industries. With the emergence of large models, time series foundation models (TSFMs) have exhibited remarkable generalization capabilities, such as zero-shot learning, through large-scale pre-training. Meanwhile, Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) methods have been widely employed to enhance the performance of foundation models on unseen data, allowing models to access to external knowledge. In this paper, we introduce TimeRAF, a Retrieval-Augmented Forecasting model that enhance zero-shot time series forecasting through retrieval-augmented techniques. We develop customized time series knowledge bases that are tailored to the specific forecasting tasks. TimeRAF employs an end-to-end learnable retriever to extract valuable information from the knowledge base. Additionally, we propose Channel Prompting for knowledge integration, which effectively extracts relevant information from the retrieved knowledge along the channel dimension. Extensive experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our model, showing significant improvement across various domains and datasets.

Motion forecasting is central to visual intelligence: agents must anticipate how objects will move in order to plan actions, reason about physical interactions, and synthesize realistic futures. We argue that 3D points in world coordinates provide a general representation that is class-agnostic, view-stable, compact, and directly useful for downstream tasks. We formalize the task of goal-conditioned 3D point motion forecasting: given a short visual history, a set of 3D query points on an object of interest, and a language description of the intended goal, the model predicts the future 3D trajectory of each point. We introduce a full stack to study this task at scale: (1) MolmoMotion-1M is a large corpus of action-described, object-grounded 3D point trajectories annotated from 1.16M unconstrained videos; (2) PointMotionBench is a human-verified benchmark spanning 111 object categories and 61 motion types; and (3) MolmoMotion is a general motion forecasting model that supports both autoregressive coordinate prediction and flow-matching-based trajectory generation. MolmoMotion accurately predicts diverse motion patterns with different language instructions, and significantly outperforms existing motion prediction baselines on PointMotionBench. Finally, we show that the learned 3D motion prior transfers well to downstream applications: it improves training efficiency and generalization for robot manipulation, and its predicted trajectories provide effective motion guidance for generative models to synthesize videos with more realistic object motion.

Scientific progress depends on sequences of enabling contributions, yet existing AI4Science benchmarks largely focus on citation prediction, literature retrieval, or idea generation rather than the dependencies that make progress possible. In this paper, we introduce discovery pathway forecasting: given a target scientific contribution and the prior literature available at a specified time, the task is to (1) identify the enabling contributions required to realize it and (2) ground each in prior work when such prior work exists. We present SciPaths, a benchmark of 262 expert-annotated gold pathways and 2,444 silver pathways constructed from machine learning and natural language processing papers, where each pathway records enabling contributions, roles, rationales, and prior-work groundings or unmapped decisions. Evaluating frontier and open-weight language models, we find that the best model reaches only 0.189 F1 under strict semantic matching, with core methodological dependencies hardest to recover. Prior-work grounding improves substantially when gold enabling contributions are provided, showing that decomposition quality is a major bottleneck for end-to-end pathway recovery. SciPaths therefore shifts evaluation toward a missing capability in scientific forecasting: reasoning backward from a target contribution to the enabling scientific building blocks and prior-work dependencies that make it feasible.

Reasoning over commonsense knowledge bases (CSKB) whose elements are in the form of free-text is an important yet hard task in NLP. While CSKB completion only fills the missing links within the domain of the CSKB, CSKB population is alternatively proposed with the goal of reasoning unseen assertions from external resources. In this task, CSKBs are grounded to a large-scale eventuality (activity, state, and event) graph to discriminate whether novel triples from the eventuality graph are plausible or not. However, existing evaluations on the population task are either not accurate (automatic evaluation with randomly sampled negative examples) or of small scale (human annotation). In this paper, we benchmark the CSKB population task with a new large-scale dataset by first aligning four popular CSKBs, and then presenting a high-quality human-annotated evaluation set to probe neural models' commonsense reasoning ability. We also propose a novel inductive commonsense reasoning model that reasons over graphs. Experimental results show that generalizing commonsense reasoning on unseen assertions is inherently a hard task. Models achieving high accuracy during training perform poorly on the evaluation set, with a large gap between human performance. We will make the data publicly available for future contributions. Codes and data are available at https://github.com/HKUST-KnowComp/CSKB-Population.

Trust in an AI system is often anchored by explanations of how it works, which one then uses to forecast its behavior on new inputs. For large reasoning models (LRMs), this conventional route is particularly difficult to follow: explanation methods for single token generations do not naturally generalize to long trajectories, and the trajectories themselves are often not faithful when read as natural language. We propose an alternative that bypasses the explanation step: treat behavior forecasting as a learnable task and train Behavior Forecasters that operates on a single reasoning trajectory to make the same forecasts one would typically seek from an explanation. The forecaster's training data is obtained by querying the LRM with no human annotation, and its inference is done in a single forward pass. We instantiate this approach on two tasks: how likely the LRM is to repeat its answer on re-runs, and how removing parts of the input changes its answer. We evaluate this approach on both tasks across three diverse reasoning datasets and find that trained Behavior Forecasters are more accurate than GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus-4.6 reading the same trajectories as naive readers, at a small fraction of their inference cost. We find that fine-tuning the backbone end-to-end and initializing it from the target LRM are each necessary for strong performance. These results show that the reasoning trajectory carries information about the LRM's future behavior that goes beyond what naive reading conveys.

Semantic SLAM (Simultaneous Localization and Mapping) systems enrich robot maps with structural and semantic information, enabling robots to operate more effectively in complex environments. However, these systems struggle in real-world scenarios with occlusions, incomplete data, or ambiguous geometries, as they cannot fully leverage the higher-level spatial and semantic knowledge humans naturally apply. We introduce HICS-SLAM, a Human-in-the-Loop semantic SLAM framework that uses a shared extended reality environment for real-time collaboration. The system allows human operators to directly interact with and visualize the robot's 3D scene graph, and add high-level semantic concepts (e.g., rooms or structural entities) into the mapping process. We propose a graph-based semantic fusion methodology that integrates these human interventions with robot perception, enabling scalable collaboration for enhanced situational awareness. Experimental evaluations on real-world construction site datasets demonstrate improvements in room detection accuracy, map precision, and semantic completeness compared to automated baselines, demonstrating both the effectiveness of the approach and its potential for future extensions.

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting ability of large language models (LLMs) suggests that frontier LLMs, as individual forecasters, underperform compared to the gold standard of a human crowd forecasting tournament aggregate. In Study 1, we expand this research by using an LLM ensemble approach consisting of a crowd of twelve LLMs. We compare the aggregated LLM predictions on 31 binary questions to that of a crowd of 925 human forecasters from a three-month forecasting tournament. Our main analysis shows that the LLM crowd outperforms a simple no-information benchmark and is statistically equivalent to the human crowd. We also observe an acquiescence effect, with mean model predictions being significantly above 50%, despite an almost even split of positive and negative resolutions. Moreover, in Study 2, we test whether LLM predictions (of GPT-4 and Claude 2) can be improved by drawing on human cognitive output. We find that both models' forecasting accuracy benefits from exposure to the median human prediction as information, improving accuracy by between 17% and 28%: though this leads to less accurate predictions than simply averaging human and machine forecasts. Our results suggest that LLMs can achieve forecasting accuracy rivaling that of human crowd forecasting tournaments: via the simple, practically applicable method of forecast aggregation. This replicates the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect for LLMs, and opens up their use for a variety applications throughout society.

Predicting the future is of great interest across many aspects of human activity. Businesses are interested in future trends, traders are interested in future stock prices, and companies are highly interested in future technological breakthroughs. While there are many automated systems for predicting future numerical data, such as weather, stock prices, and demand for products, there is relatively little work in automatically predicting textual data. Humans are interested in textual data predictions because it is a natural format for our consumption, and experts routinely make predictions in a textual format (Christensen et al., 2004; Tetlock & Gardner, 2015; Frick, 2015). However, there has been relatively little formalization of this general problem in the machine learning or natural language processing communities. To address this gap, we introduce the task of future language modeling: probabilistic modeling of texts in the future based on a temporal history of texts. To our knowledge, our work is the first work to formalize the task of predicting the future in this way. We show that it is indeed possible to build future language models that improve upon strong non-temporal language model baselines, opening the door to working on this important, and widely applicable problem.

Recent research has shown that large language models (LLMs) can be effectively used for real-world time series forecasting due to their strong natural language understanding capabilities. However, aligning time series into semantic spaces of LLMs comes with high computational costs and inference complexity, particularly for long-range time series generation. Building on recent advancements in using linear models for time series, this paper introduces an LLM-enhanced mixture of linear experts for precise and efficient time series forecasting. This approach involves developing a mixture of linear experts with multiple lookback lengths and a new multimodal fusion mechanism. The use of a mixture of linear experts is efficient due to its simplicity, while the multimodal fusion mechanism adaptively combines multiple linear experts based on the learned features of the text modality from pre-trained large language models. In experiments, we rethink the need to align time series to LLMs by existing time-series large language models and further discuss their efficiency and effectiveness in time series forecasting. Our experimental results show that the proposed LeMoLE model presents lower prediction errors and higher computational efficiency than existing LLM models.

Harnessing publicly available, large-scale web data, such as street view and satellite imagery, urban socio-economic sensing is of paramount importance for achieving global sustainable development goals. With the emergence of Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs), new opportunities have arisen to solve this task by treating it as a multi-modal perception and understanding problem. However, recent studies reveal that LVLMs still struggle with accurate and interpretable socio-economic predictions from visual data. To address these limitations and maximize the potential of LVLMs, we introduce CityRiSE, a novel framework for Reasoning urban Socio-Economic status in LVLMs through pure reinforcement learning (RL). With carefully curated multi-modal data and verifiable reward design, our approach guides the LVLM to focus on semantically meaningful visual cues, enabling structured and goal-oriented reasoning for generalist socio-economic status prediction. Experiments demonstrate that CityRiSE with emergent reasoning process significantly outperforms existing baselines, improving both prediction accuracy and generalization across diverse urban contexts, particularly for prediction on unseen cities and unseen indicators. This work highlights the promise of combining RL and LVLMs for interpretable and generalist urban socio-economic sensing.

Earth Observation (EO) systems are essentially designed to support domain experts who often express their requirements through vague natural language rather than precise, machine-friendly instructions. Depending on the specific application scenario, these vague queries can demand vastly different levels of visual precision. Consequently, a practical EO AI system must bridge the gap between ambiguous human queries and the appropriate multi-granularity visual analysis tasks, ranging from holistic image interpretation to fine-grained pixel-wise predictions. While Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) demonstrate strong semantic understanding, their text-based output format is inherently ill-suited for dense, precision-critical spatial predictions. Existing agentic frameworks address this limitation by delegating tasks to external tools, but indiscriminate tool invocation is computationally inefficient and underutilizes the MLLM's native capabilities. To this end, we propose RemoteAgent, an agentic framework that strategically respects the intrinsic capability boundaries of MLLMs. To empower this framework to understand real user intents, we construct VagueEO, a human-centric instruction dataset pairing EO tasks with simulated vague natural-language queries. By leveraging VagueEO for reinforcement fine-tuning, we align an MLLM into a robust cognitive core that directly resolves image- and sparse region-level tasks. Consequently, RemoteAgent processes suitable tasks internally while intelligently orchestrating specialized tools via the Model Context Protocol exclusively for dense predictions. Extensive experiments demonstrate that RemoteAgent achieves robust intent recognition capabilities while delivering highly competitive performance across diverse EO tasks.

Time series forecasting holds significant importance in many real-world dynamic systems and has been extensively studied. Unlike natural language process (NLP) and computer vision (CV), where a single large model can tackle multiple tasks, models for time series forecasting are often specialized, necessitating distinct designs for different tasks and applications. While pre-trained foundation models have made impressive strides in NLP and CV, their development in time series domains has been constrained by data sparsity. Recent studies have revealed that large language models (LLMs) possess robust pattern recognition and reasoning abilities over complex sequences of tokens. However, the challenge remains in effectively aligning the modalities of time series data and natural language to leverage these capabilities. In this work, we present Time-LLM, a reprogramming framework to repurpose LLMs for general time series forecasting with the backbone language models kept intact. We begin by reprogramming the input time series with text prototypes before feeding it into the frozen LLM to align the two modalities. To augment the LLM's ability to reason with time series data, we propose Prompt-as-Prefix (PaP), which enriches the input context and directs the transformation of reprogrammed input patches. The transformed time series patches from the LLM are finally projected to obtain the forecasts. Our comprehensive evaluations demonstrate that Time-LLM is a powerful time series learner that outperforms state-of-the-art, specialized forecasting models. Moreover, Time-LLM excels in both few-shot and zero-shot learning scenarios.

We present TartanGround, a large-scale, multi-modal dataset to advance the perception and autonomy of ground robots operating in diverse environments. This dataset, collected in various photorealistic simulation environments includes multiple RGB stereo cameras for 360-degree coverage, along with depth, optical flow, stereo disparity, LiDAR point clouds, ground truth poses, semantic segmented images, and occupancy maps with semantic labels. Data is collected using an integrated automatic pipeline, which generates trajectories mimicking the motion patterns of various ground robot platforms, including wheeled and legged robots. We collect 910 trajectories across 70 environments, resulting in 1.5 million samples. Evaluations on occupancy prediction and SLAM tasks reveal that state-of-the-art methods trained on existing datasets struggle to generalize across diverse scenes. TartanGround can serve as a testbed for training and evaluation of a broad range of learning-based tasks, including occupancy prediction, SLAM, neural scene representation, perception-based navigation, and more, enabling advancements in robotic perception and autonomy towards achieving robust models generalizable to more diverse scenarios. The dataset and codebase are available on the webpage: https://tartanair.org/tartanground

Incorporating domain-specific priors in search and navigation tasks has shown promising results in improving generalization and sample complexity over end-to-end trained policies. In this work, we study how object embeddings that capture spatial semantic priors can guide search and navigation tasks in a structured environment. We know that humans can search for an object like a book, or a plate in an unseen house, based on the spatial semantics of bigger objects detected. For example, a book is likely to be on a bookshelf or a table, whereas a plate is likely to be in a cupboard or dishwasher. We propose a method to incorporate such spatial semantic awareness in robots by leveraging pre-trained language models and multi-relational knowledge bases as object embeddings. We demonstrate using these object embeddings to search a query object in an unseen indoor environment. We measure the performance of these embeddings in an indoor simulator (AI2Thor). We further evaluate different pre-trained embedding onSuccess Rate(SR) and success weighted by Path Length(SPL).

We propose a novel robotic system that can improve its perception during deployment. Contrary to the established approach of learning semantics from large datasets and deploying fixed models, we propose a framework in which semantic models are continuously updated on the robot to adapt to the deployment environments. By combining continual learning with self-supervision, our robotic system learns online during deployment without external supervision. We conduct real-world experiments with robots localising in 3D floorplans. Our experiments show how the robot's semantic perception improves during deployment and how this translates into improved localisation, even across drastically different environments. We further study the risk of catastrophic forgetting that such a continuous learning setting poses. We find memory replay an effective measure to reduce forgetting and show how the robotic system can improve even when switching between different environments. On average, our system improves by 60% in segmentation and 10% in localisation accuracy compared to deployment of a fixed model, and it maintains this improvement while adapting to further environments.

By encoding time series as a string of numerical digits, we can frame time series forecasting as next-token prediction in text. Developing this approach, we find that large language models (LLMs) such as GPT-3 and LLaMA-2 can surprisingly zero-shot extrapolate time series at a level comparable to or exceeding the performance of purpose-built time series models trained on the downstream tasks. To facilitate this performance, we propose procedures for effectively tokenizing time series data and converting discrete distributions over tokens into highly flexible densities over continuous values. We argue the success of LLMs for time series stems from their ability to naturally represent multimodal distributions, in conjunction with biases for simplicity, and repetition, which align with the salient features in many time series, such as repeated seasonal trends. We also show how LLMs can naturally handle missing data without imputation through non-numerical text, accommodate textual side information, and answer questions to help explain predictions. While we find that increasing model size generally improves performance on time series, we show GPT-4 can perform worse than GPT-3 because of how it tokenizes numbers, and poor uncertainty calibration, which is likely the result of alignment interventions such as RLHF.

Word embeddings have been shown to be useful across state-of-the-art systems in many natural language processing tasks, ranging from question answering systems to dependency parsing. (Herbelot and Vecchi, 2015) explored word embeddings and their utility for modeling language semantics. In particular, they presented an approach to automatically map a standard distributional semantic space onto a set-theoretic model using partial least squares regression. We show in this paper that a simple baseline achieves a +51% relative improvement compared to their model on one of the two datasets they used, and yields competitive results on the second dataset.

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) excel at numerical forecasting but operate as black boxes lacking qualitative reasoning. Conversely, applying LLMs directly to temporal data introduces a modality gap: text tokenizers fragment continuous numerical values, degrading mathematical relationships and exploding sequence lengths, leading to computational overhead. To resolve this, we introduce STRIDE (Strategic Time-series Reasoning Injected via Distilled Embeddings), a novel framework natively integrating LLM reasoning into the continuous embedding space of TSFMs. Instead of discrete tokens, STRIDE distills reasoning traces into a lightweight LLM, dynamically projecting its mean-pooled hidden states as a cross-modal prior into the target numerical encoder. The architecture is jointly optimized using cross-entropy and quantile losses. Evaluations demonstrate STRIDE establishes state-of-the-art numerical forecasting on GIFT-Eval (0.674 MASE, 0.454 CRPS) compared to TSFMs and exhibits superior in-domain and out-of-domain numerical as well as reasoning performance on TFRBench. Specifically, STRIDE acts as a plug-and-play enhancement, consistently improving diverse TSFMs (e.g., Chronos-2, Timer-S1) across various LLM configurations. Thus, injecting semantic reasoning as a continuous prior equips TSFMs with human-interpretable reasoning while fundamentally improving predictive accuracy.

Although the rise of large language models (LLMs) has introduced new opportunities for time series forecasting, existing LLM-based solutions require excessive training and exhibit limited transferability. In view of these challenges, we propose TimeRAG, a framework that incorporates Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) into time series forecasting LLMs, which constructs a time series knowledge base from historical sequences, retrieves reference sequences from the knowledge base that exhibit similar patterns to the query sequence measured by Dynamic Time Warping (DTW), and combines these reference sequences and the prediction query as a textual prompt to the time series forecasting LLM. Experiments on datasets from various domains show that the integration of RAG improved the prediction accuracy of the original model by 2.97% on average.

Forecasting what will happen next is a critical skill for general-purpose systems that plan or act in the world at different levels of abstraction. In this paper, we identify a strong correlation between a vision model's perceptual ability and its generalist forecasting performance over short time horizons. This trend holds across a diverse set of pretrained models-including those trained generatively-and across multiple levels of abstraction, from raw pixels to depth, point tracks, and object motion. The result is made possible by a novel generalist forecasting framework that operates on any frozen vision backbone: we train latent diffusion models to forecast future features in the frozen representation space, which are then decoded via lightweight, task-specific readouts. To enable consistent evaluation across tasks, we introduce distributional metrics that compare distributional properties directly in the space of downstream tasks and apply this framework to nine models and four tasks. Our results highlight the value of bridging representation learning and generative modeling for temporally grounded video understanding.

Visual intelligence requires anticipating the future behavior of agents, yet vision systems lack a general representation for motion and behavior. We propose dense point trajectories as visual tokens for behavior, a structured mid-level representation that disentangles motion from appearance and generalizes across diverse non-rigid agents, such as animals in-the-wild. Building on this abstraction, we design a diffusion transformer that models unordered sets of trajectories and explicitly reasons about occlusion, enabling coherent forecasts of complex motion patterns. To evaluate at scale, we curate 300 hours of unconstrained animal video with robust shot detection and camera-motion compensation. Experiments show that forecasting trajectory tokens achieves category-agnostic, data-efficient prediction, outperforms state-of-the-art baselines, and generalizes to rare species and morphologies, providing a foundation for predictive visual intelligence in the wild.