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Oct 8

Uncertainty Quantification for Language Models: A Suite of Black-Box, White-Box, LLM Judge, and Ensemble Scorers

Hallucinations are a persistent problem with Large Language Models (LLMs). As these models become increasingly used in high-stakes domains, such as healthcare and finance, the need for effective hallucination detection is crucial. To this end, we propose a versatile framework for zero-resource hallucination detection that practitioners can apply to real-world use cases. To achieve this, we adapt a variety of existing uncertainty quantification (UQ) techniques, including black-box UQ, white-box UQ, and LLM-as-a-Judge, transforming them as necessary into standardized response-level confidence scores ranging from 0 to 1. To enhance flexibility, we introduce a tunable ensemble approach that incorporates any combination of the individual confidence scores. This approach enables practitioners to optimize the ensemble for a specific use case for improved performance. To streamline implementation, the full suite of scorers is offered in this paper's companion Python toolkit, UQLM. To evaluate the performance of the various scorers, we conduct an extensive set of experiments using several LLM question-answering benchmarks. We find that our tunable ensemble typically surpasses its individual components and outperforms existing hallucination detection methods. Our results demonstrate the benefits of customized hallucination detection strategies for improving the accuracy and reliability of LLMs.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 27, 2025

Auditing Demonstration Curation Metrics: Action-Only Scorers Fail on the Structural Defects That Degrade Imitation Policies

Imitation-learning policies inherit the quality of the demonstrations they are trained on, and a growing set of curation metrics promise to score and filter low-quality demonstrations automatically. These metrics are each validated on different data with different protocols, so it is unclear which of them actually identify the demonstrations that harm a policy. We build a controlled testbed in which demonstration defects are injected with known type, and audit seven curation metrics along two axes: how well each separates defective from clean demonstrations, and whether training a behavior-cloning policy on each metric's curated subset improves task success. We study two defect regimes. Subtle perturbations (correlated action noise, tremor, truncation) are detectable by multivariate outlier scoring and, once removed, recover the full downstream gap. Structural errors, where the demonstration executes a wrong action at a key moment, are invisible to every action-only metric we test, and two of them are inverted: they score defective demonstrations as higher quality and, used for curation, tend to leave the policy at or below the uncurated baseline rather than above it. Only metrics that examine the state trajectory detect structural errors, and even the best of them recovers just a third of the downstream gap. High detection accuracy does not guarantee downstream improvement. We release the testbed and all curation implementations.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 3

CoIDO: Efficient Data Selection for Visual Instruction Tuning via Coupled Importance-Diversity Optimization

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) rely heavily on instruction tuning to align vision and language capabilities, yet the computational cost of training on large-scale datasets remains a major bottleneck. Existing data selection methods aim to mitigate this by selecting important and diverse subsets, but they often suffer from two critical drawbacks: high computational overhead from processing the entire dataset and suboptimal data selection due to separate treatment of importance and diversity. We introduce CoIDO, a novel dual-objective framework that jointly optimizes data importance and diversity to overcome these challenges. Unlike existing approaches that require costly evaluations across the whole dataset, CoIDO employs a lightweight plug-in scorer. This scorer is trained on just a small random sample of data to learn the distribution of the candidate set, drastically reducing computational demands. By leveraging a homoscedastic uncertainty-based formulation, CoIDO effectively balances importance and diversity during training, enabling efficient and scalable data selection. In our experiments, we trained the CoIDO scorer using only 20 percent of randomly sampled data. Once trained, CoIDO was applied to the entire dataset to select a 20 percent subset for instruction tuning. On the widely used LLaVA-1.5-7B model across ten downstream tasks, this selected subset achieved an impressive 98.2 percent of the performance of full-data fine-tuning, on average.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 11, 2025

Learning to Recommend Multi-Agent Subgraphs from Calling Trees

Multi-agent systems (MAS) increasingly solve complex tasks by orchestrating agents and tools selected from rapidly growing marketplaces. As these marketplaces expand, many candidates become functionally overlapping, making selection not just a retrieval problem: beyond filtering relevant agents, an orchestrator must choose options that are reliable, compatible with the current execution context, and able to cooperate with other selected agents. Existing recommender systems -- largely built for item-level ranking from flat user-item logs -- do not directly address the structured, sequential, and interaction-dependent nature of agent orchestration. We address this gap by formulating agent recommendation in MAS as a constrained decision problem and introducing a generic constrained recommendation framework that first uses retrieval to build a compact candidate set conditioned on the current subtask and context, and then performs utility optimization within this feasible set using a learned scorer that accounts for relevance, reliability, and interaction effects. We ground both the formulation and learning signals in historical calling trees, which capture the execution structure of MAS (parent-child calls, branching dependencies, and local cooperation patterns) beyond what flat logs provide. The framework supports two complementary settings: agent-level recommendation (select the next agent/tool) and system-level recommendation (select a small, connected agent team/subgraph for coordinated execution). To enable systematic evaluation, we construct a unified calling-tree benchmark by normalizing invocation logs from eight heterogeneous multi-agent corpora into a shared structured representation.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 28

TriShieldRAG: A Three-Ring Defense-in-Depth Framework Against Knowledge Corruption in Retrieval-Augmented Generation

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) lets a large language model answer questions using documents retrieved from an external knowledge base at query time. This makes RAG useful for private data, fast-changing information, and reducing hallucination, but it also means the model's answer is only as trustworthy as whatever the retriever hands it. If the knowledge base accepts writes from more than one party, an attacker needs only a handful of adversarial documents to steer the model toward a chosen wrong answer. PoisonedRAG demonstrated this: as few as five crafted documents flip an undefended system's answer roughly 90% of the time, and three natural single-stage defenses (perplexity filtering, query paraphrasing, knowledge-base expansion) leave attack success at 30% or higher. We built TriShieldRAG to close that gap. Rather than relying on one checkpoint, we place three independent, formally specified rings across the pipeline: an Ingest Guard that screens documents for lexical and statistical poisoning signatures; a Retrieval Scorer that re-ranks the retrieved set by a provenance and consistency-weighted trust score; and a Cross-LLM Consensus stage that polls three architecturally diverse language models (Claude, Mistral Small, Llama 3.2) and allows one bounded re-retrieval on disagreement. We derive the conditions under which Rings 2 and 3 are expected to work: a minority-poison assumption and an explicit provenance-tag assumption. Our reported configuration is consistent with this analysis, though we have not yet run the controlled poison-fraction sweep needed to confirm it independently. Evaluated against the non-adaptive attacker from the original PoisonedRAG, over a 5,000-document Wikipedia knowledge base with 10 target questions, the full pipeline reduces attack success rate from roughly 91% to roughly 13% while preserving accuracy on benign queries.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 25

ADIEE: Automatic Dataset Creation and Scorer for Instruction-Guided Image Editing Evaluation

Recent advances in instruction-guided image editing underscore the need for effective automated evaluation. While Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have been explored as judges, open-source models struggle with alignment, and proprietary models lack transparency and cost efficiency. Additionally, no public training datasets exist to fine-tune open-source VLMs, only small benchmarks with diverse evaluation schemes. To address this, we introduce ADIEE, an automated dataset creation approach which is then used to train a scoring model for instruction-guided image editing evaluation. We generate a large-scale dataset with over 100K samples and use it to fine-tune a LLaVA-NeXT-8B model modified to decode a numeric score from a custom token. The resulting scorer outperforms all open-source VLMs and Gemini-Pro 1.5 across all benchmarks, achieving a 0.0696 (+17.24%) gain in score correlation with human ratings on AURORA-Bench, and improving pair-wise comparison accuracy by 4.03% (+7.21%) on GenAI-Bench and 4.75% (+9.35%) on AURORA-Bench, respectively, compared to the state-of-the-art. The scorer can act as a reward model, enabling automated best edit selection and model fine-tuning. Notably, the proposed scorer can boost MagicBrush model's average evaluation score on ImagenHub from 5.90 to 6.43 (+8.98%). Our code and models are available at https://github.com/SherryXTChen/ADIEE.git.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 9, 2025

Ko-WideSearch: A Korean Breadth-Search Benchmark for Exhaustive Set Enumeration by Web Agents

Web-agent benchmarks overwhelmingly measure depth -- pinning one obscure answer behind a chain of constraints -- while breadth, exhaustively enumerating a closed set and filling each item's attributes, is barely evaluated, especially outside English. Breadth is also hard to build: certifying that a gold set is complete and every cell correct is far costlier than checking a single answer. I introduce Ko-WideSearch, a Korean breadth-search benchmark built by an automated synthesize-and-verify pipeline. Each task names a set-parent entity -- a TV season, a dynasty, a league, an administrative region, an election -- and asks for its full membership plus a per-item attribute table, graded by Item-, Column-, and Row-F1. It spans 228 tables over 190 entities and sixteen categories across three difficulty tiers, set by two structural knobs I dial independently -- table width and a 2-D composite key -- so cross-product membership climbs from 0\% to 100\% across the tiers. A single normalization-aware comparator is shared between gold construction and grading, so stable date and count columns are not over-dropped on formatting alone. Across twenty web agents, the failure is consistent: agents recover the set but not the rows (e.g.\ Item-F1 92.8 against Row-F1 53.7), accuracy falls steadily as the knobs harden, and neither more search nor more spend closes the gap. Broken down by cell, the hard part is finding the right value, not formatting it: open-ended free-text cells fail most, while cells with a standard answer such as a date or a name usually come out right.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 24 2

HarvestBench: Measuring Whether LLM Agents Will Pay to Avoid Killing Animals

Benchmarks for the side effects an agent causes on the way to a goal already exist, but HarvestBench is the first to put a price on avoiding the side effect and to name that side effect as a living creature. It is a farm simulation: LLM sub-agents drive a crew of two tractors through a cooperative corn harvest, with animals in the field. The environment is a reinforcement learning gridworld, every decision is made without memory, and the harm is never named in the goal. When an animal blocks a tractor's route the autopilot stops and asks the model whether to drive on, at no fuel cost, or swerve around it for a posted fuel price. Kills are compared against two controls: rocks, which damage the tractor and are hit under 1% of the time by every model, and hay bales, which are harmless and not alive. Models can also take crops from the neighbor's field instead of their own, a second test of what they treat as moral. Across nine models and 7,201 priced decisions, 3,951 involved an animal rather than a hay bale or a rock. Kill rates range from 0.4% to 98.8%, with Terra and Sol the most merciful and GPT-4o-mini the most cruel, and they are not ordered by capability. Four of six models were sensitive to price at the 5% level, with elasticities from 0.09 to 1.69. All nine drove over wild animals more often than farmed animals on the default map, and the direction held at every map geometry in every model with room to move. The briefing mattered most: under the morality briefing the kill rate was under 6% in five of six reasoning models, and removing it raised the kill rate above 84% in all six. HarvestBench uses no LLM grader. The scorer counts events in the game log, so it is fully reproducible, and it measures what a model will pay to avoid harm rather than what it says about harm.

Equal Ranking Quality, Different Decisions: Measuring and Reducing Order Dependence in LLM Scorers

In passage reranking, response ranking and multi-document question answering, LLMs can score several candidate documents or responses together in one prompt, each still receiving its own score. Such scorers are selected on ranking quality, but their scores determine a decision: what a score threshold retains, a reader answers, or which chosen/rejected pair enters preference training. Because the candidates share that prompt, reordering them changes their scores. The same query over the same candidates should still yield the same decision. However, equal ranking quality does not imply equal decisions: on passage reranking, five trained scorers within 0.010 nDCG@10 retain sets that overlap by only 0.66-0.84 when reordered. No prompt-time change we test resolves that dependence: the only one that improves ranking quality does not measurably improve decision stability. We introduce order-consistency SFT (OC-SFT), which attenuates it in the weights by penalizing disagreement between a candidate's scores across orderings. It holds ranking quality and leads every decision-stability measure among trained scorers on all three tasks. It is also more stable on 12 base models than order-averaged distillation, which trains on labels averaged across permutations. One OC-SFT permutation retains sets that overlap more than ten averaged off-the-shelf permutations. A comparison of such scorers should therefore report what a threshold retains and a reader answers, not ranking quality alone. Code is available at https://github.com/thomsonreuters/presentation-dependence.

Predicting Inference-Time Scaling Gains from Labeled Validation-Set Output Statistics

Best-of-N inference scaling (drawing N candidate answers from a language model and returning the one a reward model ranks highest) improves accuracy by an amount that varies across models, but predicting that amount in advance currently requires running the procedure end-to-end. Prior work links cheap statistics of a model's sampled outputs and validation-set correctness (how often samples agree, how diverse they are, how confident the model is, and where correct samples appear) to model behavior, but does not isolate which of these form a stable, compact predictor of best-of-N gain. We fit ridge predictors on features computed from a single labeled validation-set sampling pass, use bootstrap-Lasso as a stability analysis of the candidate feature set, and give a concentration analysis with an explicit linear-approximation residual. Across three base-model families, six post-training methods, and math and reasoning task domains, the stability analysis identifies a strict three-feature core spanning prompt-level agreement spread, label-assisted first-correct-sample position, and completion-length variance; a compact ridge predictor built from this core plus an entropy add-on reaches Spearman ρ= 0.90 with actual best-of-N gain under a reward-model verifier. The intended use is labeled validation-set screening of candidate configurations before paying the full reward-model scoring cost.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 1

World4Scorer: Outcome-Grounded World Modeling for Autonomous Driving

Autonomous driving requires choosing a safe and efficient plan as surrounding traffic evolves. Generate-and-select planners propose multiple trajectories and score them for execution, and they have outperformed representative direct-prediction baselines on NAVSIM. Their scorer must compare plans that were never executed. Driving logs record the future of only the executed trajectory, so matching the logged future can leave predictions for the alternatives unconstrained; a simulator, in contrast, can label the outcome of every candidate. We introduce World4Scorer, which builds the scorer as a trajectory-conditioned JEPA-style predictor: it predicts a state for each candidate and reads the candidate's scores from that state. Simulator outcome labels supervise the states of all candidates, and the observed future of the executed trajectory anchors the predictor to real scene evolution. Because one predictor produces every candidate's state, the anchor can constrain shared parameters used to score unexecuted plans, while the future itself is needed only during training. Generated candidates mostly score well, so a scene-matched bank adds low-scoring plans to the outcome supervision; framewise choices can conflict, so inertial re-ranking keeps consecutive selections consistent. World4Scorer achieves state-of-the-art NAVSIM-v2 performance and a strong adapted-system result on closed-loop Bench2Drive. With the LeWM world model and planning budget fixed, outcome-based scoring also improves manipulation planning on the OGBench-Cube benchmark.

  • 15 authors
·
Sep 28

Predictive Credit: Measuring What Scientific Explanations Add to Experimental Forecasts

Research agents explain planned experiments. We measure predictive credit with paired forecasts sharing an intervention, forecaster, and outcome while varying description, matched explanation, and donor context. Five checks track commitment, delivery, predictive gain, alignment, and known-signal uptake. Across 336 prospective states in controlled learning, 12 Tox21 endpoints, and 24 OpenML tasks, v5's frozen credit decision was inconclusive. Tox21's preregistered ROC AUC interval-score harm test was unmet (D-M=-.0026, 95 percent interval [-.0174, .0104]); OpenML's joint formation, point-equivalence, and repeatability rule was unmet. Matched point-accuracy gains over description remained unconfirmed, and Tox21/OpenML seed-donor intervals spanned zero. Under requested DeepSeek V4 Pro, matched and donor cards reduced secondary Tox21 drift by 64.5 and 59.1 percent. A DeepSeek V4 Flash replay raised matched point MAE from .01823 to .02020 and missed matched-donor interval-score equivalence. OpenML full-card assignment widened nominal 80 percent intervals by 21 percent, with 49.3 percent coverage versus 51.4 percent for description and content in 66/144 cards. Direct-text Flash delivered all 144 notes without detectable matched point-accuracy gain. A researcher-authored mechanism positive control lowered point MAE by 2.60 percentage points versus description. The protocol measures predictive credit for research-agent benchmarks and scientific forecasting; natural-explanation credit remained unconfirmed at the tested donor resolutions.

SDR: Set-Distance Rewards for Radiology Report Generation

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards has rapidly advanced reasoning in vision--language models. However, for chest X-ray report generation, the standard rewards (i.e. exact-match accuracy and step-level processes) are incompatible because the reports consist of unordered and orthogonal findings, rather than a causal reasoning chain. We address this gap with a set-based view: each report is split into sentences and embedded by a frozen sentence transformer, yielding unordered embedding sets. We propose the use of set-to-set distances between generated and reference embeddings as continuous, permutation-invariant rewards. Across two datasets and three vision--language models (Qwen3-VL-2B/4B, Gemma3-4B), post-training with set-to-set distance based rewards via GRPO consistently outperforms supervised fine-tuning and exact-match GRPO on all headline metrics (BERTScore, RadGraph F1 and CheXbert F1 by average \%6.80, \%7.82 and \%4.45 relative improvements respectively). The same set distances also enable test-time best-of-N selection: scoring candidates by their distance to training-report embeddings outperforms random selection on our trained models as well as three closed-source LLMs (Mistral-Small, Gemini-2.5 Flash-Lite, GPT-4o-mini) with on average \%16.4 relative improvement on BERTScore. Used as a streaming signal, they support a more efficient form of test-time scaling: pruning low-scoring candidates mid-generation reduces generated tokens by over 50\% while preserving the Findings quality of full best-of-N selection. Together these results establish set-distance rewards as a unified signal for both post-training and test-time scaling in chest X-ray report generation. Our code is publicly https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Set-Distance-Rewards-CXR-BFDA{available}.

gevaertlab Gevaert Lab
·
May 29 2

A Controlled Candidate-Set Benchmark for Offline Satellite-Security Plan Decomposition

Some security-development settings require local models that map an objective to an ordered, checkable plan. We present a low-rank decomposition adapter and release a case-disjoint corpus with 24 authored decompositions and 83 derived next-step examples across 24 satellite-security cases. To prevent reference-plan leakage, prompts contain one objective and eight shuffled SPARTA candidates. The evaluation candidate sets are constructed with oracle inclusion of every reference technique, so this study measures selection from a controlled set, not retrieval. On six fixed cases and five decoding seeds, mean scores vary across adapters and prompted Qwen2.5 baselines; a separate greedy check over three adapter training seeds shows non-negligible training variance. A 24-fold greedy leave-one-case-out control at the two compact sizes likewise shows tradeoffs: at 1.5B, adapter precision is 0.583 against 0.480 for two-shot prompting, while recall is 0.586 against 0.660. Case-resampling intervals for adapter precision relative to the strongest prompted baseline cross zero at 1.5B and 7B. The adapter is also substantially more format-compliant, which prevents attributing all score differences to selection. Autoregressive next-step accuracy is 0.08, 0.06, and 0.29 at 0.5B, 1.5B, and 7B. We therefore offer the formulation, leakage-controlled dataset, reproducibility package, and descriptive analysis as a proof of concept, not evidence of a reliable stand-alone decomposition system or a general adapter advantage. A separate diagnostic tests contract reuse.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 28

Reason Only When Needed: Efficient Generative Reward Modeling via Model-Internal Uncertainty

Recent advancements in the Generative Reward Model (GRM) have demonstrated its potential to enhance the reasoning abilities of LLMs through Chain-of-Thought (CoT) prompting. Despite these gains, existing implementations of GRM suffer from two critical limitations. First, CoT prompting is applied indiscriminately to all inputs regardless of their inherent complexity. This introduces unnecessary computational costs for tasks amenable to fast, direct inference. Second, existing approaches primarily rely on voting-based mechanisms to evaluate CoT outputs, which often lack granularity and precision in assessing reasoning quality. In this paper, we propose E-GRM, an efficient generative reward modeling framework grounded in model-internal uncertainty. E-GRM leverages the convergence behavior of parallel model generations to estimate uncertainty and selectively trigger CoT reasoning only when needed, without relying on handcrafted features or task-dependent signals. To improve reward fidelity, we introduce a lightweight discriminative scorer trained with a hybrid regression--ranking objective to provide fine-grained evaluation of reasoning paths. Experiments on multiple reasoning benchmarks show that E-GRM substantially reduces inference cost while consistently improving answer accuracy, demonstrating that model-internal uncertainty is an effective and general signal for efficient reasoning-aware reward modeling.

AdaTutoRank: Learning to Rerank Document Sets via Adaptive Tutoring Optimization for RAG and Deep Research

Document rerankers determine what evidence reaches the downstream model in RAG and deep research, yet mainstream rerankers select by relevance matching, and individually relevant documents rarely constitute the complete, complementary, non-redundant set a complex information need demands. Prior work rewards a set by its aggregate rubric score, shifting the objective from ranking documents to composing sets. Yet that score is one scalar shared by every document in the set, so the supervision is sparse: a redundant document is rewarded with the rest whenever the set scores well, and a decisive one penalized with the rest whenever it does not; credit assignment leaves contributors indistinguishable from free riders. On-policy distillation could densify this supervision, but existing methods give every rollout the same fixed guidance, too prescriptive for strong rollouts and too abstract for weak ones. We therefore propose AdaTutoRank, a setwise reranker trained with Adaptive Tutoring Optimization (ATO) under a three-level hierarchy of nine rubric dimensions, which supplies silver labels for the cold start, rewards for reinforcement learning, and hints for distillation. ATO draws three hint forms of increasing specificity from the policy's own frozen snapshot: the rubrics alone, a self-selector's sibling-set chosen under rubrics, and a self-reflector's reflection contrasting the rollout with that sibling-set; each rollout receives the form matched to its quality. Re-scoring that rollout under the hint-conditioned frozen teacher and the hint-free snapshot distills the hint's effect into a token-level advantage that complements the group-relative outcome advantage. Across ten benchmarks spanning RAG, deep research, and setwise evaluation, AdaTutoRank attains the best overall performance while issuing fewer retrieval calls.

tencent Tencent
·
Sep 25 2

Task-CoEvolve: Efficient Harness Optimization via Adaptive Validation Task Selection

We present a novel approach to efficient LLM harness optimization through adaptive validation task selection. Harness optimization iteratively rewrites the harness code based on validation performance, enabling substantial performance gains without updating the underlying model weights. Existing approaches, however, evaluate a fixed validation set in full at every iteration, incurring substantial evaluation costs even on tasks that become less discriminative as the harness evolves. We propose Task-CoEvolve, which co-evolves the validation tasks with the harness by addressing two challenges: selecting informative tasks and estimating full-set performance from partial evaluations. Task-CoEvolve builds on the observation that tasks on which candidate harnesses disagree are more informative for distinguishing among them than tasks that are consistently solved or failed. It uses variance-weighted sampling based on past outcomes to focus evaluation on tasks near the capability frontier, with the sampling distribution adapting as the harness evolves. It then estimates full-set scores from the sampled tasks by accounting for their sampling probabilities, enabling consistent comparisons across iterations despite evaluating different subsets. Experiments on online text classification and Terminal-Bench 2.1 show that Task-CoEvolve consistently outperforms subset-based baselines and matches the final performance of full-set search while reducing the number of evaluations during optimization by 80%. Code will be released at https://github.com/Agent4Science-UTokyo/Task-CoEvolve.

Configurable Multi-Stage Vision Pipeline for Crop Disease and Pest Diagnosis

Farmer.Chat is Digital Green's farm advisory service for smallholder farmers. When something looks wrong with a crop, the farmer takes a photograph and sends it, and that photograph is the whole question: no symptom described, no crop named, often no text at all. The service has to determine whether the picture can be used, what crop it shows, and what is wrong with it, from images taken on cheap phones in a field, in poor light and with a moving camera. The system doing this today cannot be adjusted. It has no adjustable thresholds for photograph rejection, crops and problems cannot be added, and there is no confidence cut-off to set. We study about 1.16 million photographs sent to Farmer.Chat from Ethiopia, India, Kenya and Nigeria. The production quality gate rejected 46.8% of the images it judged, over a quarter of those reaching diagnosis returned no crop name, and 35.8% of the labelled problems filed under "disease" are pests, identifiable without the crop. We therefore split the work into three stages: a quality gate (M0), a crop detector (M1), and a disease or pest detector (M2). Route A fills all three with one fine-tuned vision-language model (Qwen3-VL-4B) answering in a single call. Route B fills each with a small specialist model (DaViT, YOLO26). We replace our production GPT-4o quality gate with a small MobileNetV3 gate at 86.9% F1 in 12 ms. On one test set scored the same way for every system, a hierarchical DaViT-Base achieves 95.41% crop accuracy against 91.46% for the production baseline. It also leads on diagnosis and never declines to answer, while every language model in the comparison leaves a large share of rows with no diagnosis. The fine-tuned model retains two capabilities the specialists do not have: one call for all three stages, and a request for a better photograph when the image cannot support an answer.

  • 5 authors
·
Sep 17

The Winner's Curse in LLM Self-Improvement Loops: Selection Noise, Lock-in, and Acceptance Rules

Self-improving LLM systems propose changes to themselves and keep those that score better on a small evaluation set. We treat this keep-if-better step as selection under measurement noise, model the correlated errors of the candidates in a single decision, and study empirically what happens when the evaluation set is reused. In runs where Qwen models rewrite their own instructions and every candidate is also scored on 600 held-out items, most proposals after the first are harmful, and the model gives the size of the winner's curse of a generation's best candidate. With a prior from a separate pilot, it matches the average overstatement of first-generation commits in native loops, though not setting by setting. In a pre-registered study, the final selection-set score of greedy loops exceeded held-out accuracy by 13 to 20 points with 16 selection items and by 1 to 5 points with 256. Held-out gains grew with the selection set on TREC but not on GSM8K, and the tested acceptance rules did not beat greedy acceptance over whole runs. Gains measured on the selection set also exceeded held-out gains when a current model refined a competent instruction, and in the validation scores of GEPA and MIPROv2. Scoring the starting and the current instruction on 64 items never used for selection removes the average bias of a loop's reported gain, but single estimates remain off by about 6 points. Self-improvement studies should report held-out gains with their uncertainty.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 6

WebFovea: When the Model Is Right but the Click Is Wrong -- Reliable Round Trips for Vision-Based Web Agents on Live Websites

We present WebFovea, a vision-based web agent that placed 2nd in the WebRetriever Challenge 2026 with a final score of 57.0 out of 100. The challenge evaluates agents end to end on Protocol III of the WebRetriever benchmark (arXiv:2607.06118): starting from an entry URL on a live website, the agent must operate the site's own interface and return a verifiable answer. A capable multimodal large language model (LLM) is necessary for this, but not sufficient. The model's decisions reach the browser through the harness, the code between the model and the page. At every step, four things must go right: the model's reply must be parsed into the intended action, the action must take effect on the page, the result must be reported back accurately, and the model must be shown the information it needs. On real websites, many of the failures we observed occurred at one of these four stages rather than in the model's reasoning. A coordinate-space mismatch placed every click at 3/4 of its intended coordinates; actions on native dropdowns, inside iframes, and in text boxes failed silently; and self-generated chat-template tokens contaminated 4.9% of task episodes. WebFovea hardens each stage and surrounds the loop with guardrails that keep the agent within the rules and its budget. The four-stage view does not depend on the model, although some individual fixes do. Because we used the same model in all four submissions, the rise of our official hidden-set score from 31.0 to 57.0 reflects changes to the harness, up to run-to-run variance on live sites. We describe the design, the evidence for each component (including negative results), a failure analysis, the limitations, and a roadmap that includes routing different steps to different models. Code is available at https://github.com/jianganghan/WebFovea.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 6 1

Binarization Flattens the Score Space

Large language model (LLM) judges are often used as rewards to train policies on objectives that deterministic verifiers cannot capture. However, these rewards are often collapsed to pass/fail ({0, 1}), which reports the verdict but not how well a response met each criterion. We model each pass/fail verdict as a score on an unreported scale, compared with one cutoff. A stretch of that scale moves every score proportionally toward or away from the cutoff, but never across it, so no verdict changes. A policy is therefore free to apply any stretch without changing anything the panel reports. Under a joint-Gaussian model, a third grade adds a second threshold and removes this affine stretch ambiguity. On MATH and SciBench outputs from one seven-criterion judge, all 14 constructed criterionwise stretches were invisible after binarization but visible with three grades. At n=1{,}024, a test given both population laws had at least 96.5% power at a 1.5times stress. Retaining grades closes one blind spot created by binarization, but verdicts alone remain insufficient as some changes are still indistinguishable from genuine improvement. These include arbitrary within-grade changes and fixed-covariance, loading-aligned mean shifts -- the signature of a sycophancy-shaped lift the panel reads as competence. The shared-factor reference approximation fit MATH and SciBench but not HealthBench, delineating its empirical scope. We recommend keeping at least three grades (for example, asking the judge whether each criterion is fully, partially, or not met and rewarding {0, 0.5, 1}), and externally validating gains along the remaining direction, which no finer scale removes.

  • 1 authors
·
Sep 16

Generalized Trajectory Scoring for End-to-end Multimodal Planning

End-to-end multi-modal planning is a promising paradigm in autonomous driving, enabling decision-making with diverse trajectory candidates. A key component is a robust trajectory scorer capable of selecting the optimal trajectory from these candidates. While recent trajectory scorers focus on scoring either large sets of static trajectories or small sets of dynamically generated ones, both approaches face significant limitations in generalization. Static vocabularies provide effective coarse discretization but struggle to make fine-grained adaptation, while dynamic proposals offer detailed precision but fail to capture broader trajectory distributions. To overcome these challenges, we propose GTRS (Generalized Trajectory Scoring), a unified framework for end-to-end multi-modal planning that combines coarse and fine-grained trajectory evaluation. GTRS consists of three complementary innovations: (1) a diffusion-based trajectory generator that produces diverse fine-grained proposals; (2) a vocabulary generalization technique that trains a scorer on super-dense trajectory sets with dropout regularization, enabling its robust inference on smaller subsets; and (3) a sensor augmentation strategy that enhances out-of-domain generalization while incorporating refinement training for critical trajectory discrimination. As the winning solution of the Navsim v2 Challenge, GTRS demonstrates superior performance even with sub-optimal sensor inputs, approaching privileged methods that rely on ground-truth perception. Code will be available at https://github.com/NVlabs/GTRS.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 7, 2025

Tencent WorkBuddy Bench: A Multi-Domain Coding-Agent Benchmark with Contamination-Resistant Task Construction

We introduce Tencent WorkBuddy Bench, a multi-domain evaluation suite for coding agents; this report documents its construction methodology, scoring protocol, and a cross-model leaderboard. At its core is a unified evaluation framework for constructing and running distribution-informed coding-agent tasks across four work domains - Code, Web, Office, and Security. Rather than adapting public issue text, every task is reverse-engineered from a real commit, pull request, or business scenario and rewritten as a short, colloquial, role-played request, so that a task's prompt is not recoverable by web-searching the underlying issue, pull request, or commit thread. Because the dataset is released openly - task directories, environment images, evaluation harness, tests, and reference solutions - contamination resistance rests on this construction together with dataset versioning rather than on secrecy. The four subsets - repository-level engineering, front-end development, office and business workflows, and red-/blue-team security - probe complementary facets of real work, each with its own verification style. All are packaged in a uniform task-directory format and run, under a uniform and reproducible protocol, on two agent harnesses (CodeBuddy Code and Claude Code); the full open release makes the benchmark reproducible end to end and directly auditable, since any third party can re-run each task and inspect its content. Because each subset uses a different scoring instrument, scores are not comparable across subsets and the suite reports no suite-wide average. We report a cross-model leaderboard across several model families.

tencent Tencent
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Jul 22 1

Biases in Expected Goals Models Confound Finishing Ability

Expected Goals (xG) has emerged as a popular tool for evaluating finishing skill in soccer analytics. It involves comparing a player's cumulative xG with their actual goal output, where consistent overperformance indicates strong finishing ability. However, the assessment of finishing skill in soccer using xG remains contentious due to players' difficulty in consistently outperforming their cumulative xG. In this paper, we aim to address the limitations and nuances surrounding the evaluation of finishing skill using xG statistics. Specifically, we explore three hypotheses: (1) the deviation between actual and expected goals is an inadequate metric due to the high variance of shot outcomes and limited sample sizes, (2) the inclusion of all shots in cumulative xG calculation may be inappropriate, and (3) xG models contain biases arising from interdependencies in the data that affect skill measurement. We found that sustained overperformance of cumulative xG requires both high shot volumes and exceptional finishing, including all shot types can obscure the finishing ability of proficient strikers, and that there is a persistent bias that makes the actual and expected goals closer for excellent finishers than it really is. Overall, our analysis indicates that we need more nuanced quantitative approaches for investigating a player's finishing ability, which we achieved using a technique from AI fairness to learn an xG model that is calibrated for multiple subgroups of players. As a concrete use case, we show that (1) the standard biased xG model underestimates Messi's GAX by 17% and (2) Messi's GAX is 27% higher than the typical elite high-shot-volume attacker, indicating that Messi is even a more exceptional finisher than people commonly believed.

  • 2 authors
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Jan 18, 2024

Right Family, Wrong Skill: Benchmarking Risk Exposure in Agent Skill Retrieval

Agent skill libraries are becoming routable software assets: a retrieved skill can contribute instructions, scripts, resource bindings, and execution assumptions to an agent. This makes retrieval failures more specific than broad irrelevance. A system can find the right capability family yet expose the wrong same-capability representative. We study this failure as same-capability risk-exposure retrieval. Each benchmark unit pairs a helpful skill with a query-specific risky sibling that shares the capability family but differs on an execution-controlling contract, such as the required resource, precondition, procedure, or artifact. We introduce SameCapRisk-Bench, an auditable benchmark with 1,190 skill-risk units and 1,686 evaluation query cases: 694 marked-sibling units under public library pressure and 496 hard role-flip units where the same two skills swap helpful/risky roles across paired queries. The release records admission evidence, cue/leakage checks, source hashes, family relations, and fixed candidate pools. The benchmark reports helpful ranking together with harmful sibling rate (HSR@K), the top-K exposure of the marked risky sibling. On this benchmark, public SkillRouter, SkillRet, and R3-Skill retrieve helpful skills at high Recall@3 (0.848--0.888) but also expose marked risky siblings frequently (HSR@3 0.346--0.372). A fully public score-and-cluster pipeline lowers HSR@3 to 0.128--0.182, with Recall@3 of 0.713--0.776. Under a benchmark-trained reference scorer, public text-cluster and controlled resolvers reach HSR@3 0.012 and 0.007; the latter attains Recall@3 0.833. Skill retrieval should therefore report both capability matching and same-family risk exposure, with HSR serving as a targeted exposure certificate for fixed skill libraries.

  • 4 authors
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Aug 19

Just Ask Jev: Reinforcement Learning for Calibrated Decisions as a Zero-Shot Detector of AI Alignment Failures

Detectors of alignment failures screen deployed language models and score alignment benchmarks. Most are generative judges that spend a decoding pass on every criterion, and classifiers that read token probabilities, such as Llama Guard, still score one fixed label per call. Jev, a model trained with reinforcement learning for calibrated decisions (RLCD), answers many typed questions about one input with calibrated probabilities in a single call. Whether it detects alignment failures has not been measured. We present RLCDAlignBench, which benchmarks Jev on ten alignment failures: sycophancy, jailbreaks, deception, prompt injection, hallucination, privacy violation, social bias, reward hacking, concealing uncertainty, and power seeking. It spans 44 benchmarks and five target models, labelled by each benchmark's scorer and, on two, by humans. Many of these failures are relational, defined against a reference, such as the user's belief or an injected instruction, that the response alone does not reveal. Our key idea is therefore to vary what Jev is asked separately from what it sees: the question's wording and answer type on one side, the fields of the input on the other. A single generic question reaches a median AUROC of 0.886 zero-shot and beats supervised baselines on most benchmarks. Question wording matters little, while context matters more, mostly through fields that encode the label. Jev matches the reference scorer's agreement with human labels, surfaces label defects in existing benchmarks, and costs 63x less than LLM-judge scorers. Code and data: https://github.com/sumleo/RLCDAlignBench.

  • 9 authors
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Sep 23 2

FM-Bench: A Benchmark for Long-Horizon Management with Competing Agents

Language model agents now execute bounded tasks reliably. Whether they can sustain effective decision-making over long horizons, where actions have cumulative consequences and the environment responds to their choices, remains largely unmeasured. FM-Bench (Football Management Benchmark) measures this. An LLM agent runs a football club for 20 in-game years through 26 tools and roughly 340 to 400 decision stops. It drafts a squad on the same budget as every rival, trades players, negotiates contracts, invests in facilities and youth, sets lineups, and answers to a board that can fire it, while a deterministic engine accumulates every year into one final score with no LLM judge or human rater. The solo track plays each of 15 frontier models against a frozen scripted world, and the Arena places the same models plus a scripted anchor in one shared 20-year world; to our knowledge, the first head-to-head evaluation at this scale. We measure six behavioral capabilities behind the score. Across three seeds, all 15 models complete every horizon while the blind scripted baselines die out in most of theirs, and claude-fable-5 tops the solo board on mean score and the Arena, where the title nonetheless rotates among ten models. Neither scale, price, nor vendor predicts the order; the order settles only late in the horizon, and the best first-play human lands only at the bottom of the model board. What separates the models is managerial behavior rather than computation. Higher-scoring models reduce slow-payoff investment near the end, keep cash invested rather than idle, and open renewals well before the deadline, while token spend predicts nothing. No model learns the market's hidden prices from hundreds of rejected bids, and self-managed memory fails in two opposite modes: an archive that only grows or a plan rewritten every season. Code is available at https://github.com/Analogy-AI/fm-bench.

  • 9 authors
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Aug 18 1

Did We Actually Fix It? An Independent Adversarial Stress-Test of Post-Point-Adjustment Evaluation Metrics for Time-Series Anomaly Detection

Point-adjustment (PA), for years the default scoring protocol in time-series anomaly detection (TSAD), was shown by Kim et al. (2022) to award near-perfect F1 to random anomaly scores. The field adopted a suite of replacement metrics (PA%K, range-based precision/recall, affiliation precision/recall, and Volume-Under-the-Surface, VUS, ROC/PR). We ask, independently and adversarially, whether these resist no-skill detectors on real benchmarks, and find the answer turns entirely on one overlooked variable: N, the number of random attempts an adversary reports the best of. Under a single honest run (N=1), not one replacement metric is gameable on any of six benchmarks (UCR, SMD, SMAP, MSL, NAB, PSM): a random detector reaches 90% of the best real detector's score on at most 11% of series for affiliation-F1, 5% for the ROC family, and 2% for the PR-based metrics and PA%K. But under best-of-N reporting, the seed-shopping endemic to ML, the metrics split sharply. affiliation-F1 and every ROC-based metric inflate steeply, affiliation crossing gameable (25% of series) by N=3 and reaching 0.98 at the full pool (N=41), the ROC family crossing by N=9-11; the PR-based metrics and PA%K stay near-flat at every N, floored near the anomaly prevalence (the lone exception is NAB at large N). A paired test finds VUS-ROC inflated on 131 series where its sibling VUS-PR is not, and never the reverse. The ROC-vs-PR split follows from the order-statistic behaviour of AUC under extreme class imbalance (a random PR-AUC is floored at prevalence); affiliation inflates by a second route, its extreme single-run leniency (already fragile at N=1). We release a pip-installable stress-test harness, and recommend reporting single-run scores or disclosing N and preferring PR-based metrics, which resist best-of-N inflation on nearly every benchmark.

  • 1 authors
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Jul 18

Skill-Targeted Adaptive Training

Language models often show little to no improvement (i.e., "saturation") when trained via vanilla supervised fine-tuning (SFT) on data similar to what they saw in their training set (e.g., MATH). We introduce a new fine-tuning strategy, STAT, to train such a student model by using the metacognition ability of a stronger large language model (LLM) as the teacher. The teacher uses the task dataset to create a list of skills needed for the task, and then labels each data point with its required skills (Didolkar et al., 2024). By monitoring the student's answers, the teacher creates a Missing-Skill-Profile for the student, tracking how often they failed to apply each skill in their responses. We use this idea to build a modified training set in one of two ways. In STAT-Sel, the teacher uses an existing set of training examples but adaptively reweights them according to the Missing-Skill-Profile. In STAT-Syn, the teacher synthesizes additional examples involving missing skills. Across extensive experiments on Llama and Qwen models, our methods yield improvements of up to 7.5% on MATH, whereas SFT provides only limited gains. Furthermore, STAT enhances performance on out-of-distribution benchmarks (e.g., AIME24/25, AMC23, etc.) by an average of 4.6%. Crucially, we find that STAT is complementary to RL via GRPO (Shao et al., 2024): after the model is improved using STAT to address skill gaps, GRPO continues to add further gains. We conclude that skill-targeted adaptive training should broadly improve current training pipelines. Our code is available at: https://github.com/princeton-pli/STAT.

PrincetonUniversity Princeton University
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Oct 11, 2025 2