Daily Papers

Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations are essential for understanding atomic-scale behaviors in materials science, yet writing LAMMPS scripts remains highly specialized and time-consuming tasks. Although LLMs show promise in code generation and domain-specific question answering, their performance in MD scenarios is limited by scarce domain data, the high deployment cost of state-of-the-art LLMs, and low code executability. Building upon our prior MDAgent, we present MDAgent2, the first end-to-end framework capable of performing both knowledge Q&A and code generation within the MD domain. We construct a domain-specific data-construction pipeline that yields three high-quality datasets spanning MD knowledge, question answering, and code generation. Based on these datasets, we adopt a three stage post-training strategy--continued pre-training (CPT), supervised fine-tuning (SFT), and reinforcement learning (RL)--to train two domain-adapted models, MD-Instruct and MD-Code. Furthermore, we introduce MD-GRPO, a closed-loop RL method that leverages simulation outcomes as reward signals and recycles low-reward trajectories for continual refinement. We further build MDAgent2-RUNTIME, a deployable multi-agent system that integrates code generation, execution, evaluation, and self-correction. Together with MD-EvalBench proposed in this work, the first benchmark for LAMMPS code generation and question answering, our models and system achieve performance surpassing several strong baselines.This work systematically demonstrates the adaptability and generalization capability of large language models in industrial simulation tasks, laying a methodological foundation for automatic code generation in AI for Science and industrial-scale simulations. URL: https://github.com/FredericVAN/PKU_MDAgent2

As LLMs are increasingly studied as role-playing agents to generate synthetic data for human behavioral research, ensuring that their outputs remain coherent with their assigned roles has become a critical concern. In this paper, we investigate how consistently LLM-based role-playing agents' stated beliefs about the behavior of the people they are asked to role-play ("what they say") correspond to their actual behavior during role-play ("how they act"). Specifically, we establish an evaluation framework to rigorously measure how well beliefs obtained by prompting the model can predict simulation outcomes in advance. Using an augmented version of the GenAgents persona bank and the Trust Game (a standard economic game used to quantify players' trust and reciprocity), we introduce a belief-behavior consistency metric to systematically investigate how it is affected by factors such as: (1) the types of beliefs we elicit from LLMs, like expected outcomes of simulations versus task-relevant attributes of individual characters LLMs are asked to simulate; (2) when and how we present LLMs with relevant information about Trust Game; and (3) how far into the future we ask the model to forecast its actions. We also explore how feasible it is to impose a researcher's own theoretical priors in the event that the originally elicited beliefs are misaligned with research objectives. Our results reveal systematic inconsistencies between LLMs' stated (or imposed) beliefs and the outcomes of their role-playing simulation, at both an individual- and population-level. Specifically, we find that, even when models appear to encode plausible beliefs, they may fail to apply them in a consistent way. These findings highlight the need to identify how and when LLMs' stated beliefs align with their simulated behavior, allowing researchers to use LLM-based agents appropriately in behavioral studies.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred interest in designing LLM-based agents for tasks that involve interaction with human and artificial agents. This paper addresses a key aspect in the design of such agents: Predicting human decision in off-policy evaluation (OPE), focusing on language-based persuasion games, where the agent's goal is to influence its partner's decisions through verbal messages. Using a dedicated application, we collected a dataset of 87K decisions from humans playing a repeated decision-making game with artificial agents. Our approach involves training a model on human interactions with one agents subset to predict decisions when interacting with another. To enhance off-policy performance, we propose a simulation technique involving interactions across the entire agent space and simulated decision makers. Our learning strategy yields significant OPE gains, e.g., improving prediction accuracy in the top 15% challenging cases by 7.1%. Our code and the large dataset we collected and generated are submitted as supplementary material and publicly available in our GitHub repository: https://github.com/eilamshapira/HumanChoicePrediction

Reasoning Vision Language Action (VLA) models improve robotic instruction-following by generating step-by-step textual plans before low-level actions, an approach inspired by Chain-of-Thought (CoT) reasoning in language models. Yet even with a correct textual plan, the generated actions can still miss the intended outcomes in the plan, especially in out-of-distribution (OOD) scenarios. We formalize this phenomenon as a lack of embodied CoT faithfulness, and introduce a training-free, runtime policy steering method for reasoning-action alignment. Given a reasoning VLA's intermediate textual plan, our framework samples multiple candidate action sequences from the same model, predicts their outcomes via simulation, and uses a pre-trained Vision-Language Model (VLM) to select the sequence whose outcome best aligns with the VLA's own textual plan. Only executing action sequences that align with the textual reasoning turns our base VLA's natural action diversity from a source of error into a strength, boosting robustness to semantic and visual OOD perturbations and enabling novel behavior composition without costly re-training. We also contribute a reasoning-annotated extension of LIBERO-100, environment variations tailored for OOD evaluation, and demonstrate up to 15% performance gain over prior work on behavior composition tasks and scales with compute and data diversity. Project Website at: https://yilin-wu98.github.io/steering-reasoning-vla/

Understanding human behavior and society is a central focus in social sciences, with the rise of generative social science marking a significant paradigmatic shift. By leveraging bottom-up simulations, it replaces costly and logistically challenging traditional experiments with scalable, replicable, and systematic computational approaches for studying complex social dynamics. Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have further transformed this research paradigm, enabling the creation of human-like generative social agents and realistic simulacra of society. In this paper, we propose AgentSociety, a large-scale social simulator that integrates LLM-driven agents, a realistic societal environment, and a powerful large-scale simulation engine. Based on the proposed simulator, we generate social lives for over 10k agents, simulating their 5 million interactions both among agents and between agents and their environment. Furthermore, we explore the potential of AgentSociety as a testbed for computational social experiments, focusing on four key social issues: polarization, the spread of inflammatory messages, the effects of universal basic income policies, and the impact of external shocks such as hurricanes. These four issues serve as valuable cases for assessing AgentSociety's support for typical research methods -- such as surveys, interviews, and interventions -- as well as for investigating the patterns, causes, and underlying mechanisms of social issues. The alignment between AgentSociety's outcomes and real-world experimental results not only demonstrates its ability to capture human behaviors and their underlying mechanisms, but also underscores its potential as an important platform for social scientists and policymakers.

Scene simulation in autonomous driving has gained significant attention because of its huge potential for generating customized data. However, existing editable scene simulation approaches face limitations in terms of user interaction efficiency, multi-camera photo-realistic rendering and external digital assets integration. To address these challenges, this paper introduces ChatSim, the first system that enables editable photo-realistic 3D driving scene simulations via natural language commands with external digital assets. To enable editing with high command flexibility,~ChatSim leverages a large language model (LLM) agent collaboration framework. To generate photo-realistic outcomes, ChatSim employs a novel multi-camera neural radiance field method. Furthermore, to unleash the potential of extensive high-quality digital assets, ChatSim employs a novel multi-camera lighting estimation method to achieve scene-consistent assets' rendering. Our experiments on Waymo Open Dataset demonstrate that ChatSim can handle complex language commands and generate corresponding photo-realistic scene videos.

Machine learning (ML) holds great potential for accurately forecasting treatment outcomes over time, which could ultimately enable the adoption of more individualized treatment strategies in many practical applications. However, a significant challenge that has been largely overlooked by the ML literature on this topic is the presence of informative sampling in observational data. When instances are observed irregularly over time, sampling times are typically not random, but rather informative -- depending on the instance's characteristics, past outcomes, and administered treatments. In this work, we formalize informative sampling as a covariate shift problem and show that it can prohibit accurate estimation of treatment outcomes if not properly accounted for. To overcome this challenge, we present a general framework for learning treatment outcomes in the presence of informative sampling using inverse intensity-weighting, and propose a novel method, TESAR-CDE, that instantiates this framework using Neural CDEs. Using a simulation environment based on a clinical use case, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in learning under informative sampling.

Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit remarkable common-sense and semantic reasoning capabilities. However, they lack a grounded understanding of physical dynamics. This limitation arises from training VLMs on static internet-scale visual-language data that contain no causal interactions or action-conditioned changes. Consequently, it remains challenging to leverage VLMs for fine-grained robotic manipulation tasks that require physical understanding, reasoning, and corresponding action planning. To overcome this, we present SIMPACT, a test-time, SIMulation-enabled ACTion Planning framework that equips VLMs with physical reasoning through simulation-in-the-loop world modeling, without requiring any additional training. From a single RGB-D observation, SIMPACT efficiently constructs physics simulations, enabling the VLM to propose informed actions, observe simulated rollouts, and iteratively refine its reasoning. By integrating language reasoning with physics prediction, our simulation-enabled VLM can understand contact dynamics and action outcomes in a physically grounded way. Our method demonstrates state-of-the-art performance on five challenging, real-world rigid-body and deformable manipulation tasks that require fine-grained physical reasoning, outperforming existing general-purpose robotic manipulation models. Our results demonstrate that embedding physics understanding via efficient simulation into VLM reasoning at test time offers a promising path towards generalizable embodied intelligence. Project webpage can be found at https://simpact-bot.github.io

Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.

Information ecosystems increasingly shape how people internalize exposure to adverse digital experiences, raising concerns about the long-term consequences for information health. In modern search and recommendation systems, ranking and personalization policies play a central role in shaping such exposure and its long-term effects on users. To study these effects in a controlled setting, we present FrameRef, a large-scale dataset of 1,073,740 systematically reframed claims across five framing dimensions: authoritative, consensus, emotional, prestige, and sensationalist, and propose a simulation-based framework for modeling sequential information exposure and reinforcement dynamics characteristic of ranking and recommendation systems. Within this framework, we construct framing-sensitive agent personas by fine-tuning language models with framing-conditioned loss attenuation, inducing targeted biases while preserving overall task competence. Using Monte Carlo trajectory sampling, we show that small, systematic shifts in acceptance and confidence can compound over time, producing substantial divergence in cumulative information health trajectories. Human evaluation further confirms that FrameRef's generated framings measurably affect human judgment. Together, our dataset and framework provide a foundation for systematic information health research through simulation, complementing and informing responsible human-centered research. We release FrameRef, code, documentation, human evaluation data, and persona adapter models at https://github.com/infosenselab/frameref.

AI agents will be predictable in certain ways that traditional agents are not. Where and how can we leverage this predictability in order to improve social welfare? We study this question in a game-theoretic setting where one agent can pay a fixed cost to simulate the other in order to learn its mixed strategy. As a negative result, we prove that, in contrast to prior work on pure-strategy simulation, enabling mixed-strategy simulation may no longer lead to improved outcomes for both players in all so-called "generalised trust games". In fact, mixed-strategy simulation does not help in any game where the simulatee's action can depend on that of the simulator. We also show that, in general, deciding whether simulation introduces Pareto-improving Nash equilibria in a given game is NP-hard. As positive results, we establish that mixed-strategy simulation can improve social welfare if the simulator has the option to scale their level of trust, if the players face challenges with both trust and coordination, or if maintaining some level of privacy is essential for enabling cooperation.

Recent advances in reinforcement learning (RL) have shown much promise across a variety of applications. However, issues such as scalability, explainability, and Markovian assumptions limit its applicability in certain domains. We observe that many of these shortcomings emanate from the simulator as opposed to the RL training algorithms themselves. As such, we propose a semantic proxy for simulation based on a temporal extension to annotated logic. In comparison with two high-fidelity simulators, we show up to three orders of magnitude speed-up while preserving the quality of policy learned. In addition, we show the ability to model and leverage non-Markovian dynamics and instantaneous actions while providing an explainable trace describing the outcomes of the agent actions.

The study of social emergence has long been a central focus in social science. Traditional modeling approaches, such as rule-based Agent-Based Models (ABMs), struggle to capture the diversity and complexity of human behavior, particularly the irrational factors emphasized in behavioral economics. Recently, large language model (LLM) agents have gained traction as simulation tools for modeling human behavior in social science and role-playing applications. Studies suggest that LLMs can account for cognitive biases, emotional fluctuations, and other non-rational influences, enabling more realistic simulations of socio-economic dynamics. In this work, we introduce TwinMarket, a novel multi-agent framework that leverages LLMs to simulate socio-economic systems. Specifically, we examine how individual behaviors, through interactions and feedback mechanisms, give rise to collective dynamics and emergent phenomena. Through experiments in a simulated stock market environment, we demonstrate how individual actions can trigger group behaviors, leading to emergent outcomes such as financial bubbles and recessions. Our approach provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between individual decision-making and collective socio-economic patterns.

Large language models are increasingly used as agents in social, economic, and policy simulations. A common assumption is that stronger reasoning should improve simulation fidelity. We argue that this assumption can fail when the objective is not to solve a strategic problem, but to sample plausible boundedly rational behavior. In such settings, reasoning-enhanced models can become better solvers and worse simulators: they can over-optimize for strategically dominant actions, collapse compromise-oriented terminal behavior, and sometimes exhibit a diversity-without-fidelity pattern in which local variation survives without outcome-level fidelity. We study this solver-sampler mismatch in three multi-agent negotiation environments adapted from earlier simulation work: an ambiguous fragmented-authority trading-limits scenario, an ambiguous unified-opposition trading-limits scenario, and a new-domain grid-curtailment case in emergency electricity management. We compare three reflection conditions, no reflection, bounded reflection, and native reasoning, across two primary model families and then extend the same protocol to direct OpenAI runs with GPT-4.1 and GPT-5.2. Across all three experiments, bounded reflection produces substantially more diverse and compromise-oriented trajectories than either no reflection or native reasoning. In the direct OpenAI extension, GPT-5.2 native ends in authority decisions in 45 of 45 runs across the three experiments, while GPT-5.2 bounded recovers compromise outcomes in every environment. The contribution is not a claim that reasoning is generally harmful. It is a methodological warning: model capability and simulation fidelity are different objectives, and behavioral simulation should qualify models as samplers, not only as solvers.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as simulated participants in social science experiments, but their behavior is often unstable and highly sensitive to design choices. Prior evaluations frequently conflate base-model capabilities with experimental instantiation, obscuring whether outcomes reflect the model itself or the agent setup. We instead frame participant simulation as an agent-design problem over full experimental protocols, where an agent is defined by a base model and a specification (e.g., participant attributes) that encodes behavioral assumptions. We introduce HUMANSTUDY-BENCH, a benchmark and execution engine that orchestrates LLM-based agents to reconstruct published human-subject experiments via a Filter--Extract--Execute--Evaluate pipeline, replaying trial sequences and running the original analysis pipeline in a shared runtime that preserves the original statistical procedures end to end. To evaluate fidelity at the level of scientific inference, we propose new metrics to quantify how much human and agent behaviors agree. We instantiate 12 foundational studies as an initial suite in this dynamic benchmark, spanning individual cognition, strategic interaction, and social psychology, and covering more than 6,000 trials with human samples ranging from tens to over 2,100 participants.

In the age of AI-powered educational (AIED) innovation, evaluating the developmental consequences of novel designs before they are exposed to students has become both essential and challenging. Since such interventions may carry irreversible effects, it is critical to anticipate not only potential benefits but also possible harms. This study proposes a student development agent framework based on large language models (LLMs), designed to simulate how students with diverse characteristics may evolve under different educational settings without administering them to real students. By validating the approach through a case study on a multi-agent learning environment (MAIC), we demonstrate that the agent's predictions align with real student outcomes in non-cognitive developments. The results suggest that LLM-based simulations hold promise for evaluating AIED innovations efficiently and ethically. Future directions include enhancing profile structures, incorporating fine-tuned or small task-specific models, validating effects of empirical findings, interpreting simulated data and optimizing evaluation methods.

Algorithmic decision-making has become deeply ingrained in many domains, yet biases in machine learning models can still produce discriminatory outcomes, often harming unprivileged groups. Achieving fair classification is inherently challenging, requiring a careful balance between predictive performance and ethical considerations. We present FairTTTS, a novel post-processing bias mitigation method inspired by the Tree Test Time Simulation (TTTS) method. Originally developed to enhance accuracy and robustness against adversarial inputs through probabilistic decision-path adjustments, TTTS serves as the foundation for FairTTTS. By building on this accuracy-enhancing technique, FairTTTS mitigates bias and improves predictive performance. FairTTTS uses a distance-based heuristic to adjust decisions at protected attribute nodes, ensuring fairness for unprivileged samples. This fairness-oriented adjustment occurs as a post-processing step, allowing FairTTTS to be applied to pre-trained models, diverse datasets, and various fairness metrics without retraining. Extensive evaluation on seven benchmark datasets shows that FairTTTS outperforms traditional methods in fairness improvement, achieving a 20.96% average increase over the baseline compared to 18.78% for related work, and further enhances accuracy by 0.55%. In contrast, competing methods typically reduce accuracy by 0.42%. These results confirm that FairTTTS effectively promotes more equitable decision-making while simultaneously improving predictive performance.

Generative AI systems like foundation models (FMs) must align well with human values to ensure their behavior is helpful and trustworthy. While Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) has shown promise for optimizing model performance using human judgments, existing RLHF pipelines predominantly rely on immediate feedback, which can fail to accurately reflect the downstream impact of an interaction on users' utility. We demonstrate that feedback based on evaluators' foresight estimates of downstream consequences systematically induces Goodhart's Law dynamics, incentivizing misaligned behaviors like sycophancy and deception and ultimately degrading user outcomes. To alleviate this, we propose decoupling evaluation from prediction by refocusing RLHF on hindsight feedback. Our theoretical analysis reveals that conditioning evaluator feedback on downstream observations mitigates misalignment and improves expected human utility, even when these observations are simulated by the AI system itself. To leverage this insight in a practical alignment algorithm, we introduce Reinforcement Learning from Hindsight Simulation (RLHS), which first simulates plausible consequences and then elicits feedback to assess what behaviors were genuinely beneficial in hindsight. We apply RLHS to two widely-employed online and offline preference optimization methods -- Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) and Direct Preference Optimization (DPO) -- and show empirically that misalignment is significantly reduced with both methods. Through an online human user study, we show that RLHS consistently outperforms RLHF in helping users achieve their goals and earns higher satisfaction ratings, despite being trained solely with simulated hindsight feedback. These results underscore the importance of focusing on long-term consequences, even simulated ones, to mitigate misalignment in RLHF.

Successful and effective communication between humans and AI relies on a shared experience of the world. By training solely on written text, current language models (LMs) miss the grounded experience of humans in the real-world -- their failure to relate language to the physical world causes knowledge to be misrepresented and obvious mistakes in their reasoning. We present Mind's Eye, a paradigm to ground language model reasoning in the physical world. Given a physical reasoning question, we use a computational physics engine (DeepMind's MuJoCo) to simulate the possible outcomes, and then use the simulation results as part of the input, which enables language models to perform reasoning. Experiments on 39 tasks in a physics alignment benchmark demonstrate that Mind's Eye can improve reasoning ability by a large margin (27.9% zero-shot, and 46.0% few-shot absolute accuracy improvement on average). Smaller language models armed with Mind's Eye can obtain similar performance to models that are 100x larger. Finally, we confirm the robustness of Mind's Eye through ablation studies.

With the growing spread of misinformation online, research has increasingly focused on detecting and tracking fake news. However, an overlooked issue is that fake news does not naturally exist in social networks -- it often originates from distorted facts or deliberate fabrication by malicious actors. Understanding how true news gradually evolves into fake news is critical for early detection and prevention, reducing its spread and impact. Hence, in this paper, we take the first step toward simulating and revealing this evolution, proposing a Fake News evolUtion Simulation framEwork (FUSE) based on large language models (LLMs). Specifically, we employ LLM as agents to represent individuals in a simulated social network. We define four types of agents commonly observed in daily interactions: spreaders, who propagate information; commentators, who provide opinions and interpretations; verifiers, who check the accuracy of information; and bystanders, who passively observe without engaging. For simulated environments, we model various social network structures, such as high-clustering networks and scale-free networks, to mirror real-world network dynamics. Each day, the agents engage in belief exchanges, reflect on their thought processes, and reintroduce the news accordingly. Given the lack of prior work in this area, we developed a FUSE-EVAL evaluation framework to measure the deviation from true news during the fake news evolution process. The results show that FUSE successfully captures the underlying patterns of how true news transforms into fake news and accurately reproduces previously discovered instances of fake news, aligning closely with human evaluations. Moreover, our work provides insights into the fact that combating fake news should not be delayed until it has fully evolved; instead, prevention in advance is key to achieving better outcomes.

Humans demonstrate remarkable abilities to predict physical events in complex scenes. Two classes of models for physical scene understanding have recently been proposed: "Intuitive Physics Engines", or IPEs, which posit that people make predictions by running approximate probabilistic simulations in causal mental models similar in nature to video-game physics engines, and memory-based models, which make judgments based on analogies to stored experiences of previously encountered scenes and physical outcomes. Versions of the latter have recently been instantiated in convolutional neural network (CNN) architectures. Here we report four experiments that, to our knowledge, are the first rigorous comparisons of simulation-based and CNN-based models, where both approaches are concretely instantiated in algorithms that can run on raw image inputs and produce as outputs physical judgments such as whether a stack of blocks will fall. Both approaches can achieve super-human accuracy levels and can quantitatively predict human judgments to a similar degree, but only the simulation-based models generalize to novel situations in ways that people do, and are qualitatively consistent with systematic perceptual illusions and judgment asymmetries that people show.

Partial Differential Equations are precise in modelling the physical, biological and graphical phenomena. However, the numerical methods suffer from the curse of dimensionality, high computation costs and domain-specific discretization. We aim to explore pros and cons of different PDE solvers, and apply them to specific scientific simulation problems, including forwarding solution, inverse problems and equations discovery. In particular, we extend the recent CNF (NeurIPS 2023) framework solver to multi-dependent-variable and non-linear settings, together with down-stream applications. The outcomes include implementation of selected methods, self-tuning techniques, evaluation on benchmark problems and a comprehensive survey of neural PDE solvers and scientific simulation applications.

Problem: Effective patient-centered communication is a core competency for physicians. However, both seasoned providers and medical trainees report decreased confidence in leading conversations on sensitive topics such as goals of care or end-of-life discussions. The significant administrative burden and the resources required to provide dedicated training in leading difficult conversations has been a long-standing problem in medical education. Approach: In this work, we present a novel educational tool designed to facilitate interactive, real-time simulations of difficult conversations in a video-based format through the use of multimodal generative artificial intelligence (AI). Leveraging recent advances in language modeling, computer vision, and generative audio, this tool creates realistic, interactive scenarios with avatars, or "synthetic patients." These synthetic patients interact with users throughout various stages of medical care using a custom-built video chat application, offering learners the chance to practice conversations with patients from diverse belief systems, personalities, and ethnic backgrounds. Outcomes: While the development of this platform demanded substantial upfront investment in labor, it offers a highly-realistic simulation experience with minimal financial investment. For medical trainees, this educational tool can be implemented within programs to simulate patient-provider conversations and can be incorporated into existing palliative care curriculum to provide a scalable, high-fidelity simulation environment for mastering difficult conversations. Next Steps: Future developments will explore enhancing the authenticity of these encounters by working with patients to incorporate their histories and personalities, as well as employing the use of AI-generated evaluations to offer immediate, constructive feedback to learners post-simulation.

Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) in simulation often results in brittle and unrealistic learning outcomes. To push the agent towards more desirable solutions, prior information can be injected in the learning process through, for instance, reward shaping, expert data, or motion primitives. We propose an additional inductive bias for robot learning: latent actions learned from expert demonstration as priors in the action space. We show that these action priors can be learned from only a single open-loop gait cycle using a simple autoencoder. Using these latent action priors combined with established style rewards for imitation in DRL achieves above expert demonstration level of performance and leads to more desirable gaits. Further, action priors substantially improve the performance on transfer tasks, even leading to gait transitions for higher target speeds. Videos and code are available at https://sites.google.com/view/latent-action-priors.

Restless multi-armed bandits (RMAB) have demonstrated success in optimizing resource allocation for large beneficiary populations in public health settings. Unfortunately, RMAB models lack flexibility to adapt to evolving public health policy priorities. Concurrently, Large Language Models (LLMs) have emerged as adept automated planners across domains of robotic control and navigation. In this paper, we propose a Decision Language Model (DLM) for RMABs, enabling dynamic fine-tuning of RMAB policies in public health settings using human-language commands. We propose using LLMs as automated planners to (1) interpret human policy preference prompts, (2) propose reward functions as code for a multi-agent RMAB environment, and (3) iterate on the generated reward functions using feedback from grounded RMAB simulations. We illustrate the application of DLM in collaboration with ARMMAN, an India-based non-profit promoting preventative care for pregnant mothers, that currently relies on RMAB policies to optimally allocate health worker calls to low-resource populations. We conduct a technology demonstration in simulation using the Gemini Pro model, showing DLM can dynamically shape policy outcomes using only human prompts as input.

The automation of resume screening is a crucial aspect of the recruitment process in organizations. Automated resume screening systems often encompass a range of natural language processing (NLP) tasks. The advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) has notably enhanced the efficacy of these systems, showcasing their robust generalization abilities across diverse language-related tasks. Accompanying these developments are various agents based on LLMs, which facilitate their application in practical scenarios. This paper introduces a novel LLM-based agent framework for resume screening, aimed at enhancing efficiency and time management in recruitment processes. Our framework is distinct in its ability to efficiently summarize and grade each resume from a large dataset. Moreover, it utilizes LLM agents for decision-making, determining which candidates receive job offers, or which ones to bring in for interviews. To evaluate our framework, we constructed a dataset from actual resumes and conducted simulate a resume screening process. Subsequently, the outcomes of the simulation experiment were compared and subjected to detailed analysis. The results demonstrate that our automated resume screening framework is 11 times faster than traditional manual methods. Furthermore, by fine-tuning the LLMs, we observed a significant improvement in the F1 score, reaching 87.73\%, during the resume sentence classification phase. In the resume summarization and grading phase, our fine-tuned model surpassed the baseline performance of the GPT-3.5 model. Analysis of the decision-making efficacy of the LLM agents in the final offer stage further underscores the potential of LLM agents in transforming resume screening processes.

Temporal reasoning involves understanding how systems evolve over time through input-driven state transitions. A key aspect is temporal causal reasoning, causally reasoning about what prior inputs were necessary in causing an observed outcome. While large language models (LLMs) perform well at forward simulation, predicting outputs from inputs, they struggle to identify the minimal causal inputs of outcomes. To study this distinction, we define two tasks: trace simulation (SIM), which requires models to simulate system execution, and minimal causal attribution (MIN), which identifies the minimal set of inputs necessary for a given outcome. We introduce TempoBench, the first formally verified benchmark for temporal causal reasoning, built from synthesized Mealy machines with controllable complexity and provably correct causal labels. Across frontier models, we observe that despite achieving up to 96\% accuracy on the SIM task, performance on the causal attribution MIN task drops below 25\%; models fail to reason about causal necessity. Over 94\% of causal errors involve overspecification, where models perform retrieval and list all possible inputs rather than reasoning about the minimal causal subset. Fine-tuning on TempoBench training corpus improves causal reasoning and generalizes better than math, code, or instruction training, with gains across standard reasoning benchmarks.

We explore the feasibility and effectiveness of using LLM-driven autonomous systems for Assumed Breach penetration testing in enterprise networks. We introduce a novel prototype that, driven by Large Language Models (LLMs), can compromise accounts within a real-life Active Directory testbed. Our research provides a comprehensive evaluation of the prototype's capabilities, and highlights both strengths and limitations while executing attack. The evaluation uses a realistic simulation environment (Game of Active Directory, GOAD) to capture intricate interactions, stochastic outcomes, and timing dependencies that characterize live network scenarios. The study concludes that autonomous LLMs are able to conduct Assumed Breach simulations, potentially democratizing access to penetration testing for organizations facing budgetary constraints. The prototype's source code, traces, and analyzed logs are released as open-source to enhance collective cybersecurity and facilitate future research in LLM-driven cybersecurity automation.

Industrial software development across chip design, GPU optimization, and embedded systems lacks expert reasoning traces showing how engineers reason about hardware constraints and timing semantics. In this work, we propose InCoder-32B-Thinking, trained on the data from the Error-driven Chain-of-Thought (ECoT) synthesis framework with an industrial code world model (ICWM) to generate reasoning traces. Specifically, ECoT generates reasoning chains by synthesizing the thinking content from multi-turn dialogue with environmental error feedback, explicitly modeling the error-correction process. ICWM is trained on domain-specific execution traces from Verilog simulation, GPU profiling, etc., learns the causal dynamics of how code affects hardware behavior, and enables self-verification by predicting execution outcomes before actual compilation. All synthesized reasoning traces are validated through domain toolchains, creating training data matching the natural reasoning depth distribution of industrial tasks. Evaluation on 14 general (81.3% on LiveCodeBench v5) and 9 industrial benchmarks (84.0% in CAD-Coder and 38.0% on KernelBench) shows InCoder-32B-Thinking achieves top-tier open-source results across all domains.GPU Optimization

We present Supermarket-6DoF, a real-world dataset of 1500 grasp attempts across 20 supermarket objects with publicly available 3D models. Unlike most existing grasping datasets that rely on analytical metrics or simulation for grasp labeling, our dataset provides ground-truth outcomes from physical robot executions. Among the few real-world grasping datasets, wile more modest in size, Supermarket-6DoF uniquely features full 6-DoF grasp poses annotated with both initial grasp success and post-grasp stability under external perturbation. We demonstrate the dataset's utility by analyzing three grasp pose representations for grasp success prediction from point clouds. Our results show that representing the gripper geometry explicitly as a point cloud achieves higher prediction accuracy compared to conventional quaternion-based grasp pose encoding.

Strategic interaction in adversarial domains such as law, diplomacy, and negotiation is mediated by language, yet most game-theoretic models abstract away the mechanisms of persuasion that operate through discourse. We present the Strategic Courtroom Framework, a multi-agent simulation environment in which prosecution and defense teams composed of trait-conditioned Large Language Model (LLM) agents engage in iterative, round-based legal argumentation. Agents are instantiated using nine interpretable traits organized into four archetypes, enabling systematic control over rhetorical style and strategic orientation. We evaluate the framework across 10 synthetic legal cases and 84 three-trait team configurations, totaling over 7{,}000 simulated trials using DeepSeek-R1 and Gemini~2.5~Pro. Our results show that heterogeneous teams with complementary traits consistently outperform homogeneous configurations, that moderate interaction depth yields more stable verdicts, and that certain traits (notably quantitative and charismatic) contribute disproportionately to persuasive success. We further introduce a reinforcement-learning-based Trait Orchestrator that dynamically generates defense traits conditioned on the case and opposing team, discovering strategies that outperform static, human-designed trait combinations. Together, these findings demonstrate how language can be treated as a first-class strategic action space and provide a foundation for building autonomous agents capable of adaptive persuasion in multi-agent environments.

Traditional recommender systems rely on passive feedback mechanisms that limit users to simple choices such as like and dislike. However, these coarse-grained signals fail to capture users' nuanced behavior motivations and intentions. In turn, current systems cannot also distinguish which specific item attributes drive user satisfaction or dissatisfaction, resulting in inaccurate preference modeling. These fundamental limitations create a persistent gap between user intentions and system interpretations, ultimately undermining user satisfaction and harming system effectiveness. To address these limitations, we introduce the Interactive Recommendation Feed (IRF), a pioneering paradigm that enables natural language commands within mainstream recommendation feeds. Unlike traditional systems that confine users to passive implicit behavioral influence, IRF empowers active explicit control over recommendation policies through real-time linguistic commands. To support this paradigm, we develop RecBot, a dual-agent architecture where a Parser Agent transforms linguistic expressions into structured preferences and a Planner Agent dynamically orchestrates adaptive tool chains for on-the-fly policy adjustment. To enable practical deployment, we employ simulation-augmented knowledge distillation to achieve efficient performance while maintaining strong reasoning capabilities. Through extensive offline and long-term online experiments, RecBot shows significant improvements in both user satisfaction and business outcomes.

Effective agency in social environments depends on when an agent seeks knowledge, when it acts, and whether its actions are justified by acquired information. Existing grounded benchmarks provide executable actions, persistent state, and verifiable outcomes, while social simulation environments provide rich interaction among language agents. We study an evaluation setting that combines these requirements. We define socially distributed task environments as interactive environments where task-relevant knowledge is partitioned across role-isolated participants and consequential actions are accessible only through them. Communication serves as exploration over role-partitioned knowledge, while grounded action serves as exploitation over environment state. We introduce Incognita, a Concordia-based framework that separates social interaction from grounded execution. The evaluated agent routes messages to a user or specialist entities; specialists mediate admissible operations; a deterministic sub-environment executes accepted operations over a canonical state; and an offline evaluator scores outcomes with inherited rewards. Incognita-Retail transforms tau-bench retail into a multi-entity environment while preserving final-state reward semantics. We evaluate three generative agent models on 18 tasks stratified by social breadth, with 540 trials. Progress appears in reward and behavior: success rises from 0 percent to 8.9 percent and 17.2 percent, while premature finalization falls from 100 percent to 87 percent and 58 percent. Stronger models elicit more hidden knowledge, contact more entities, and attempt more grounded writes, yet reliability remains low. These findings show that socially distributed task environments expose behavior before reliable success, including knowledge elicitation, source selection, grounded action attempts, and premature completion belief.

Deploying safety-critical agents requires anticipating the consequences of actions before they are executed. While world models offer a paradigm for this proactive foresight, current approaches relying on visual simulation incur prohibitive latencies, often exceeding several seconds per step. In this work, we challenge the assumption that visual processing is necessary for failure prevention. We show that a trained policy's latent state, combined with its planned actions, already encodes sufficient information to anticipate action outcomes, making visual simulation redundant for failure prevention. To this end, we introduce DILLO (DIstiLLed Language-ActiOn World Model), a fast steering layer that shifts the paradigm from "simulate-then-act" to "describe-then-act." DILLO is trained via cross-modal distillation, where a privileged Vision Language Model teacher annotates offline trajectories and a latent-conditioned Large Language Model student learns to predict semantic outcomes. This creates a text-only inference path, bypassing heavy visual generation entirely, achieving a 14x speedup over baselines. Experiments on MetaWorld and LIBERO demonstrate that DILLO produces high-fidelity descriptions of the next state and is able to steer the policy, improving episode success rate by up to 15 pp and 9.3 pp on average across tasks.

Simulation is an integral part in the process of developing autonomous vehicles and advantageous for training, validation, and verification of driving functions. Even though simulations come with a series of benefits compared to real-world experiments, various challenges still prevent virtual testing from entirely replacing physical test-drives. Our work provides an overview of these challenges with regard to different aspects and types of simulation and subsumes current trends to overcome them. We cover aspects around perception-, behavior- and content-realism as well as general hurdles in the domain of simulation. Among others, we observe a trend of data-driven, generative approaches and high-fidelity data synthesis to increasingly replace model-based simulation.

Large language model (LLM) simulations of human behavior have the potential to revolutionize the social and behavioral sciences, if and only if they faithfully reflect real human behaviors. Current evaluations are fragmented, based on bespoke tasks and metrics, creating a patchwork of incomparable results. To address this, we introduce SimBench, the first large-scale, standardized benchmark for a robust, reproducible science of LLM simulation. By unifying 20 diverse datasets covering tasks from moral decision-making to economic choice across a large global participant pool, SimBench provides the necessary foundation to ask fundamental questions about when, how, and why LLM simulations succeed or fail. We show that, while even the best LLMs today have limited simulation ability (score: 40.80/100), performance scales log-linearly with model size. Simulation performance is not improved by increased inference-time compute. We demonstrate an alignment-simulation trade-off: instruction-tuning improves performance on low-entropy (consensus) questions but degrades it on high-entropy (diverse) ones. Models particularly struggle when simulating specific demographic groups. Finally, we demonstrate that simulation ability correlates most strongly with deep, knowledge-intensive reasoning (MMLU-Pro, r=0.939). By making progress measurable, we aim to accelerate the development of more faithful LLM simulators.

Simulation is essential to the development and evaluation of autonomous robots such as self-driving vehicles. Neural reconstruction is emerging as a promising solution as it enables simulating a wide variety of scenarios from real-world data alone in an automated and scalable way. However, while methods such as NeRF and 3D Gaussian Splatting can produce visually compelling results, they often exhibit artifacts particularly when rendering novel views, and fail to realistically integrate inserted dynamic objects, especially when they were captured from different scenes. To overcome these limitations, we introduce DiffusionHarmonizer, an online generative enhancement framework that transforms renderings from such imperfect scenes into temporally consistent outputs while improving their realism. At its core is a single-step temporally-conditioned enhancer that is converted from a pretrained multi-step image diffusion model, capable of running in online simulators on a single GPU. The key to training it effectively is a custom data curation pipeline that constructs synthetic-real pairs emphasizing appearance harmonization, artifact correction, and lighting realism. The result is a scalable system that significantly elevates simulation fidelity in both research and production environments.

Clinical trials or studies oftentimes require long-term and/or costly follow-up of participants to evaluate a novel treatment/drug/vaccine. There has been increasing interest in the past few decades in using short-term surrogate outcomes as a replacement of the primary outcome i.e., in using the surrogate outcome, which can potentially be observed sooner, to make inference about the treatment effect on the long-term primary outcome. Very few of the available statistical methods to evaluate a surrogate are applicable to settings where both the surrogate and the primary outcome are time-to-event outcomes subject to censoring. Methods that can handle this setting tend to require parametric assumptions or be limited to assessing only the restricted mean survival time. In this paper, we propose a non-parametric approach to evaluate a censored surrogate outcome, such as time to progression, when the primary outcome is also a censored time-to-event outcome, such as time to death, and the treatment effect of interest is the difference in overall survival. Specifically, we define the proportion of the treatment effect on the primary outcome that is explained (PTE) by the censored surrogate outcome in this context, and estimate this proportion by defining and deriving an optimal transformation of the surrogate information. Our approach provides the added advantage of relaxed assumptions to guarantee that the true PTE is within (0,1), along with being model-free. Finite sample performance of our estimators are illustrated via extensive simulation studies and a real data application examining progression-free survival as a surrogate for overall survival for patients with metastatic colorectal cancer.

Hospitals struggle to predict critical outcomes. Traditional early warning systems, like NEWS and MEWS, rely on static variables and fixed thresholds, limiting their adaptability, accuracy, and personalization. We previously developed the Enhanced Transformer for Health Outcome Simulation (ETHOS), an AI model that tokenizes patient health timelines (PHTs) from EHRs and uses transformer-based architectures to predict future PHTs. ETHOS is a versatile framework for developing a wide range of applications. In this work, we develop the Adaptive Risk Estimation System (ARES) that leverages ETHOS to compute dynamic, personalized risk probabilities for clinician-defined critical events. ARES also features a personalized explainability module that highlights key clinical factors influencing risk estimates. We evaluated ARES using the MIMIC-IV v2.2 dataset together with its Emergency Department (ED) extension and benchmarked performance against both classical early warning systems and contemporary machine learning models. The entire dataset was tokenized resulting in 285,622 PHTs, comprising over 360 million tokens. ETHOS outperformed benchmark models in predicting hospital admissions, ICU admissions, and prolonged stays, achieving superior AUC scores. Its risk estimates were robust across demographic subgroups, with calibration curves confirming model reliability. The explainability module provided valuable insights into patient-specific risk factors. ARES, powered by ETHOS, advances predictive healthcare AI by delivering dynamic, real-time, personalized risk estimation with patient-specific explainability. Although our results are promising, the clinical impact remains uncertain. Demonstrating ARES's true utility in real-world settings will be the focus of our future work. We release the source code to facilitate future research.

Machine learning has facilitated significant advancements across various robotics domains, including navigation, locomotion, and manipulation. Many such achievements have been driven by the extensive use of simulation as a critical tool for training and testing robotic systems prior to their deployment in real-world environments. However, simulations consist of abstractions and approximations that inevitably introduce discrepancies between simulated and real environments, known as the reality gap. These discrepancies significantly hinder the successful transfer of systems from simulation to the real world. Closing this gap remains one of the most pressing challenges in robotics. Recent advances in sim-to-real transfer have demonstrated promising results across various platforms, including locomotion, navigation, and manipulation. By leveraging techniques such as domain randomization, real-to-sim transfer, state and action abstractions, and sim-real co-training, many works have overcome the reality gap. However, challenges persist, and a deeper understanding of the reality gap's root causes and solutions is necessary. In this survey, we present a comprehensive overview of the sim-to-real landscape, highlighting the causes, solutions, and evaluation metrics for the reality gap and sim-to-real transfer.

Traditional sociological research often relies on human participation, which, though effective, is expensive, challenging to scale, and with ethical concerns. Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) highlight their potential to simulate human behavior, enabling the replication of individual responses and facilitating studies on many interdisciplinary studies. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive survey of this field, illustrating the recent progress in simulation driven by LLM-empowered agents. We categorize the simulations into three types: (1) Individual Simulation, which mimics specific individuals or demographic groups; (2) Scenario Simulation, where multiple agents collaborate to achieve goals within specific contexts; and (3) Society Simulation, which models interactions within agent societies to reflect the complexity and variety of real-world dynamics. These simulations follow a progression, ranging from detailed individual modeling to large-scale societal phenomena. We provide a detailed discussion of each simulation type, including the architecture or key components of the simulation, the classification of objectives or scenarios and the evaluation method. Afterward, we summarize commonly used datasets and benchmarks. Finally, we discuss the trends across these three types of simulation. A repository for the related sources is at {https://github.com/FudanDISC/SocialAgent}.

The study conducted by Shumailov et al. (2024) demonstrates that repeatedly training a generative model on synthetic data leads to model collapse. This finding has generated considerable interest and debate, particularly given that current models have nearly exhausted the available data. In this work, we investigate the effects of fitting a distribution (through Kernel Density Estimation, or KDE) or a model to the data, followed by repeated sampling from it. Our objective is to develop a theoretical understanding of the phenomenon observed by Shumailov et al. (2024). Our results indicate that the outcomes reported are a statistical phenomenon and may be unavoidable.

We have witnessed remarkable advances in LLM reasoning capabilities with the advent of DeepSeek-R1. However, much of this progress has been fueled by the abundance of internet question-answer (QA) pairs, a major bottleneck going forward, since such data is limited in scale and concentrated mainly in domains like mathematics. In contrast, other sciences such as physics lack large-scale QA datasets to effectively train reasoning-capable models. In this work, we show that physics simulators can serve as a powerful alternative source of supervision for training LLMs for physical reasoning. We generate random scenes in physics engines, create synthetic question-answer pairs from simulated interactions, and train LLMs using reinforcement learning on this synthetic data. Our models exhibit zero-shot sim-to-real transfer to real-world physics benchmarks: for example, training solely on synthetic simulated data improves performance on IPhO (International Physics Olympiad) problems by 5-10 percentage points across model sizes. These results demonstrate that physics simulators can act as scalable data generators, enabling LLMs to acquire deep physical reasoning skills beyond the limitations of internet-scale QA data. Code available at: https://sim2reason.github.io/.

Generating simulations to train intelligent agents in game-playing and robotics from natural language input, from user input or task documentation, remains an open-ended challenge. Existing approaches focus on parts of this challenge, such as generating reward functions or task hyperparameters. Unlike previous work, we introduce FACTORSIM that generates full simulations in code from language input that can be used to train agents. Exploiting the structural modularity specific to coded simulations, we propose to use a factored partially observable Markov decision process representation that allows us to reduce context dependence during each step of the generation. For evaluation, we introduce a generative simulation benchmark that assesses the generated simulation code's accuracy and effectiveness in facilitating zero-shot transfers in reinforcement learning settings. We show that FACTORSIM outperforms existing methods in generating simulations regarding prompt alignment (e.g., accuracy), zero-shot transfer abilities, and human evaluation. We also demonstrate its effectiveness in generating robotic tasks.

Outcome-reward reinforcement learning (RL) has proven effective at improving the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, standard RL assigns credit only at the level of the final answer, penalizing entire reasoning traces when the outcome is incorrect and uniformly reinforcing all steps when it is correct. As a result, correct intermediate steps may be discouraged in failed traces, while spurious steps may be reinforced in successful ones. We refer to this failure mode as the problem of credit assignment. While a natural remedy is to train a process reward model, accurately optimizing such models to identify corrective reasoning steps remains challenging. We introduce Intervention Training (InT), a training paradigm in which the model performs fine-grained credit assignment on its own reasoning traces by proposing short, targeted corrections that steer trajectories toward higher reward. Using reference solutions commonly available in mathematical reasoning datasets and exploiting the fact that verifying a model-generated solution is easier than generating a correct one from scratch, the model identifies the first error in its reasoning and proposes a single-step intervention to redirect the trajectory toward the correct solution. We then apply supervised fine-tuning (SFT) to the on-policy rollout up to the point of error concatenated with the intervention, localizing error to the specific step that caused failure. We show that the resulting model serves as a far better initialization for RL training. After running InT and subsequent fine-tuning with RL, we improve accuracy by nearly 14% over a 4B-parameter base model on IMO-AnswerBench, outperforming larger open-source models such as gpt-oss-20b.

This paper contributes the Aerial Gym Simulator, a highly parallelized, modular framework for simulation and rendering of arbitrary multirotor platforms based on NVIDIA Isaac Gym. Aerial Gym supports the simulation of under-, fully- and over-actuated multirotors offering parallelized geometric controllers, alongside a custom GPU-accelerated rendering framework for ray-casting capable of capturing depth, segmentation and vertex-level annotations from the environment. Multiple examples for key tasks, such as depth-based navigation through reinforcement learning are provided. The comprehensive set of tools developed within the framework makes it a powerful resource for research on learning for control, planning, and navigation using state information as well as exteroceptive sensor observations. Extensive simulation studies are conducted and successful sim2real transfer of trained policies is demonstrated. The Aerial Gym Simulator is open-sourced at: https://github.com/ntnu-arl/aerial_gym_simulator.

We present EmbodiedGen V2, a generative 3D world engine for building executable sim-ready environments for embodied intelligence. Sim-ready 3D asset generation has advanced rapidly, yet assembling such assets into policy-ready task environments remains largely manual, limiting scalable closed-loop learning. EmbodiedGen V2 addresses this gap through a unified sim-ready representation that connects cross-simulator assets, interaction affordances, task-driven worlds, large-scale multi-room scenes, and stateful Vibe Coding into a generative, editable, and reusable simulation pipeline. The generated environments support manipulation, navigation, mobile manipulation, cross-simulator deployment, and embodied policy training. In evaluation, the asset pipeline achieves 96.5% human acceptance and 98.6% collision success, and 83.3% of task-driven worlds are directly usable for downstream simulation without manual modification. Online reinforcement learning with generated environments further improves simulation success from 9.7% to 79.8%, and transfers to real robots with task success increasing from 21.7% to 75.0%. These results establish EmbodiedGen V2 as scalable simulation infrastructure for training, evaluating, and deploying embodied policies.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has emerged as a powerful method for improving the reasoning abilities of large language models (LLMs). Outcome-based RL, which rewards policies solely for the correctness of the final answer, yields substantial accuracy gains but also induces a systematic loss in generation diversity. This collapse undermines real-world performance, where diversity is critical for test-time scaling. We analyze this phenomenon by viewing RL post-training as a sampling process and show that, strikingly, RL can reduce effective diversity even on the training set relative to the base model. Our study highlights two central findings: (i) a transfer of diversity degradation, where reduced diversity on solved problems propagates to unsolved ones, and (ii) the tractability of the outcome space, since reasoning tasks admit only a limited set of distinct answers. Motivated by these insights, we propose outcome-based exploration, which assigns exploration bonuses according to final outcomes. We introduce two complementary algorithms: historical exploration, which encourages rarely observed answers via UCB-style bonuses, and batch exploration, which penalizes within-batch repetition to promote test-time diversity. Experiments on standard competition math with Llama and Qwen models demonstrate that both methods improve accuracy while mitigating diversity collapse. On the theoretical side, we formalize the benefit of outcome-based exploration through a new model of outcome-based bandits. Together, these contributions chart a practical path toward RL methods that enhance reasoning without sacrificing the diversity essential for scalable deployment.

Cyber-physical systems like autonomous vehicles are tested in simulation before deployment, using domain-specific programs for scenario specification. To aid the testing of autonomous vehicles in simulation, we design a natural language interface, using an instruction-following large language model, to assist a non-coding domain expert in synthesising the desired scenarios and vehicle behaviours. We show that using it to convert utterances to the symbolic program is feasible, despite the very small training dataset. Human experiments show that dialogue is critical to successful simulation generation, leading to a 4.5 times higher success rate than a generation without engaging in extended conversation.

Probabilistic mental simulation is thought to play a key role in human reasoning, planning, and prediction, yet the demands of simulation in complex environments exceed realistic human capacity limits. A theory with growing evidence is that people simulate using simplified representations of the environment that abstract away from irrelevant details, but it is unclear how people determine these simplifications efficiently. Here, we present a "Just-in-Time" framework for simulation-based reasoning that demonstrates how such representations can be constructed online with minimal added computation. The model uses a tight interleaving of simulation, visual search, and representation modification, with the current simulation guiding where to look and visual search flagging objects that should be encoded for subsequent simulation. Despite only ever encoding a small subset of objects, the model makes high-utility predictions. We find strong empirical support for this account over alternative models in a grid-world planning task and a physical reasoning task across a range of behavioral measures. Together, these results offer a concrete algorithmic account of how people construct reduced representations to support efficient mental simulation.

Real-world data collection for robotics is costly and resource-intensive, requiring skilled operators and expensive hardware. Simulations offer a scalable alternative but often fail to achieve sim-to-real generalization due to geometric and visual gaps. To address these challenges, we propose a 3D-photorealistic real-to-sim system, namely, RE^3SIM, addressing geometric and visual sim-to-real gaps. RE^3SIM employs advanced 3D reconstruction and neural rendering techniques to faithfully recreate real-world scenarios, enabling real-time rendering of simulated cross-view cameras within a physics-based simulator. By utilizing privileged information to collect expert demonstrations efficiently in simulation, and train robot policies with imitation learning, we validate the effectiveness of the real-to-sim-to-real pipeline across various manipulation task scenarios. Notably, with only simulated data, we can achieve zero-shot sim-to-real transfer with an average success rate exceeding 58%. To push the limit of real-to-sim, we further generate a large-scale simulation dataset, demonstrating how a robust policy can be built from simulation data that generalizes across various objects. Codes and demos are available at: http://xshenhan.github.io/Re3Sim/.

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing education, with LLM-based agents playing a key role in simulating student behavior. A major challenge in student simulation is modeling the diverse learning patterns of students at various cognitive levels. However, current LLMs, typically trained as ``helpful assistants'', target at generating perfect responses. As a result, they struggle to simulate students with diverse cognitive abilities, as they often produce overly advanced answers, missing the natural imperfections that characterize student learning and resulting in unrealistic simulations. To address this issue, we propose a training-free framework for student simulation. We begin by constructing a cognitive prototype for each student using a knowledge graph, which captures their understanding of concepts from past learning records. This prototype is then mapped to new tasks to predict student performance. Next, we simulate student solutions based on these predictions and iteratively refine them using a beam search method to better replicate realistic mistakes. To validate our approach, we construct the Student\_100 dataset, consisting of 100 students working on Python programming and 5,000 learning records. Experimental results show that our method consistently outperforms baseline models, achieving 100% improvement in simulation accuracy.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are now increasingly widely used to simulate personas in virtual environments, leveraging their instruction-following capability. However, we discovered that even state-of-the-art LLMs cannot simulate personas with reversed performance (e.g., student personas with low proficiency in educational settings), which impairs the simulation diversity and limits the practical applications of the simulated environments. In this work, using mathematical reasoning as a representative scenario, we propose the first benchmark dataset for evaluating LLMs on simulating personas with reversed performance, a capability that we dub "counterfactual instruction following". We evaluate both open-weight and closed-source LLMs on this task and find that LLMs, including the OpenAI o1 reasoning model, all struggle to follow counterfactual instructions for simulating reversedly performing personas. Intersectionally simulating both the performance level and the race population of a persona worsens the effect even further. These results highlight the challenges of counterfactual instruction following and the need for further research.

How do we communicate with others to achieve our goals? We use our prior experience or advice from others, or construct a candidate utterance by predicting how it will be received. However, our experiences are limited and biased, and reasoning about potential outcomes can be difficult and cognitively challenging. In this paper, we explore how we can leverage Large Language Model (LLM) simulations to help us communicate better. We propose the Explore-Generate-Simulate (EGS) framework, which takes as input any scenario where an individual is communicating to an audience with a goal they want to achieve. EGS (1) explores the solution space by producing a diverse set of advice relevant to the scenario, (2) generates communication candidates conditioned on subsets of the advice, and (3) simulates the reactions from various audiences to determine both the best candidate and advice to use. We evaluate the framework on eight scenarios spanning the ten fundamental processes of interpersonal communication. For each scenario, we collect a dataset of human evaluations across candidates and baselines, and showcase that our framework's chosen candidate is preferred over popular generation mechanisms including Chain-of-Thought. We also find that audience simulations achieve reasonably high agreement with human raters across 5 of the 8 scenarios. Finally, we demonstrate the generality of our framework by applying it to real-world scenarios described by users on web forums. Through evaluations and demonstrations, we show that EGS enhances the effectiveness and outcomes of goal-oriented communication across a variety of situations, thus opening up new possibilities for the application of large language models in revolutionizing communication and decision-making processes.

Data scaling and standardized evaluation benchmarks have driven significant advances in natural language processing and computer vision. However, robotics faces unique challenges in scaling data and establishing evaluation protocols. Collecting real-world data is resource-intensive and inefficient, while benchmarking in real-world scenarios remains highly complex. Synthetic data and simulation offer promising alternatives, yet existing efforts often fall short in data quality, diversity, and benchmark standardization. To address these challenges, we introduce RoboVerse, a comprehensive framework comprising a simulation platform, a synthetic dataset, and unified benchmarks. Our simulation platform supports multiple simulators and robotic embodiments, enabling seamless transitions between different environments. The synthetic dataset, featuring high-fidelity physics and photorealistic rendering, is constructed through multiple approaches. Additionally, we propose unified benchmarks for imitation learning and reinforcement learning, enabling evaluation across different levels of generalization. At the core of the simulation platform is MetaSim, an infrastructure that abstracts diverse simulation environments into a universal interface. It restructures existing simulation environments into a simulator-agnostic configuration system, as well as an API aligning different simulator functionalities, such as launching simulation environments, loading assets with initial states, stepping the physics engine, etc. This abstraction ensures interoperability and extensibility. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that RoboVerse enhances the performance of imitation learning, reinforcement learning, world model learning, and sim-to-real transfer. These results validate the reliability of our dataset and benchmarks, establishing RoboVerse as a robust solution for advancing robot learning.

World models (WMs) are intended to serve as internal simulators of the real world that enable agents to understand, anticipate, and act upon complex environments. Existing WM benchmarks remain narrowly focused on next-state prediction and visual fidelity, overlooking the richer simulation capabilities required for intelligent behavior. To address this gap, we introduce WR-Arena, a comprehensive benchmark for evaluating WMs along three fundamental dimensions of next world simulation: (i) Action Simulation Fidelity, the ability to interpret and follow semantically meaningful, multi-step instructions and generate diverse counterfactual rollouts; (ii) Long-horizon Forecast, the ability to sustain accurate, coherent, and physically plausible simulations across extended interactions; and (iii) Simulative Reasoning and Planning, the ability to support goal-directed reasoning by simulating, comparing, and selecting among alternative futures in both structured and open-ended environments. We build a task taxonomy and curate diverse datasets designed to probe these capabilities, moving beyond single-turn and perceptual evaluations. Through extensive experiments with state-of-the-art WMs, our results expose a substantial gap between current models and human-level hypothetical reasoning, and establish WR-Arena as both a diagnostic tool and a guideline for advancing next-generation world models capable of robust understanding, forecasting, and purposeful action. The code is available at https://github.com/MBZUAI-IFM/WR-Arena.

High-fidelity simulation is essential for robotics research, enabling safe and efficient testing of perception, control, and navigation algorithms. However, achieving both photorealistic rendering and accurate physics modeling remains a challenge. This paper presents a novel simulation framework, the Unreal Robotics Lab (URL), that integrates the advanced rendering capabilities of the Unreal Engine with MuJoCo's high-precision physics simulation. Our approach enables realistic robotic perception while maintaining accurate physical interactions, facilitating benchmarking and dataset generation for vision-based robotics applications. The system supports complex environmental effects, such as smoke, fire, and water dynamics, which are critical to evaluating robotic performance under adverse conditions. We benchmark visual navigation and SLAM methods within our framework, demonstrating its utility for testing real-world robustness in controlled yet diverse scenarios. By bridging the gap between physics accuracy and photorealistic rendering, our framework provides a powerful tool for advancing robotics research and sim-to-real transfer. Our open-source framework is available at https://unrealroboticslab.github.io/.

Recent research has been increasingly focusing on developing 3D world models that simulate complex real-world scenarios. World models have found broad applications across various domains, including embodied AI, autonomous driving, entertainment, etc. A more realistic simulation with accurate physics will effectively narrow the sim-to-real gap and allow us to gather rich information about the real world conveniently. While traditional manual modeling has enabled the creation of virtual 3D scenes, modern approaches have leveraged advanced machine learning algorithms for 3D world generation, with most recent advances focusing on generative methods that can create virtual worlds based on user instructions. This work explores such a research direction by proposing LatticeWorld, a simple yet effective 3D world generation framework that streamlines the industrial production pipeline of 3D environments. LatticeWorld leverages lightweight LLMs (LLaMA-2-7B) alongside the industry-grade rendering engine (e.g., Unreal Engine 5) to generate a dynamic environment. Our proposed framework accepts textual descriptions and visual instructions as multimodal inputs and creates large-scale 3D interactive worlds with dynamic agents, featuring competitive multi-agent interaction, high-fidelity physics simulation, and real-time rendering. We conduct comprehensive experiments to evaluate LatticeWorld, showing that it achieves superior accuracy in scene layout generation and visual fidelity. Moreover, LatticeWorld achieves over a 90times increase in industrial production efficiency while maintaining high creative quality compared with traditional manual production methods. Our demo video is available at https://youtu.be/8VWZXpERR18

Global healthcare providers are exploring use of large language models (LLMs) to provide medical advice to the public. LLMs now achieve nearly perfect scores on medical licensing exams, but this does not necessarily translate to accurate performance in real-world settings. We tested if LLMs can assist members of the public in identifying underlying conditions and choosing a course of action (disposition) in ten medical scenarios in a controlled study with 1,298 participants. Participants were randomly assigned to receive assistance from an LLM (GPT-4o, Llama 3, Command R+) or a source of their choice (control). Tested alone, LLMs complete the scenarios accurately, correctly identifying conditions in 94.9% of cases and disposition in 56.3% on average. However, participants using the same LLMs identified relevant conditions in less than 34.5% of cases and disposition in less than 44.2%, both no better than the control group. We identify user interactions as a challenge to the deployment of LLMs for medical advice. Standard benchmarks for medical knowledge and simulated patient interactions do not predict the failures we find with human participants. Moving forward, we recommend systematic human user testing to evaluate interactive capabilities prior to public deployments in healthcare.

In many industries, predicting metric outcomes of large systems is a fundamental problem, driven largely by traditional tabular regression. However, such methods struggle on complex systems data in the wild such as configuration files or system logs, where feature engineering is often infeasible. We propose text-to-text regression as a general, scalable alternative. For predicting resource efficiency on Borg, Google's massive compute cluster scheduling system, a 60M parameter encoder-decoder, trained from random initialization, achieves up to a near perfect 0.99 (0.9 average) rank correlation across the entire fleet, and 100x lower MSE than tabular approaches. The model also easily adapts to new tasks in only 500 few-shot examples and captures the densities of complex outcome distributions. Ablation studies highlight the importance of using encoders, increasing sequence length, and the model's inherent uncertainty quantification. These findings pave the way for universal simulators of real-world outcomes.

Large language models (LLMs) excel at processing information reactively but lack the ability to systemically explore hypothetical futures. They cannot ask, "what if we take this action? how will it affect the final outcome" and forecast its potential consequences before acting. This critical gap limits their utility in dynamic, high-stakes scenarios like strategic planning, risk assessment, and real-time decision making. To bridge this gap, we propose WiA-LLM, a new paradigm that equips LLMs with proactive thinking capabilities. Our approach integrates What-If Analysis (WIA), a systematic approach for evaluating hypothetical scenarios by changing input variables. By leveraging environmental feedback via reinforcement learning, WiA-LLM moves beyond reactive thinking. It dynamically simulates the outcomes of each potential action, enabling the model to anticipate future states rather than merely react to the present conditions. We validate WiA-LLM in Honor of Kings (HoK), a complex multiplayer game environment characterized by rapid state changes and intricate interactions. The game's real-time state changes require precise multi-step consequence prediction, making it an ideal testbed for our approach. Experimental results demonstrate WiA-LLM achieves a remarkable 74.2% accuracy in forecasting game-state changes (up to two times gain over baselines). The model shows particularly significant gains in high-difficulty scenarios where accurate foresight is critical. To our knowledge, this is the first work to formally explore and integrate what-if analysis capabilities within LLMs. WiA-LLM represents a fundamental advance toward proactive reasoning in LLMs, providing a scalable framework for robust decision-making in dynamic environments with broad implications for strategic applications.

Large language models are increasingly trained as interactive agents for long-horizon tasks involving multi-turn interaction, tool use, and environment feedback. Outcome-based reinforcement learning (RL) provides a practical optimization paradigm, but its sparse trajectory-level rewards offer limited guidance on intermediate decisions, leaving a supervision gap between episode-level outcomes and token-level policy learning. We propose SEED (SElf-Evolving On-Policy Distillation), a self-evolving framework that converts completed on-policy trajectories into training-time hindsight skills and distills their behavioral effect back into the policy model. SEED first fine-tunes the policy to analyze completed trajectories and generate natural-language skills that capture reusable workflows, decisive observations, or failure-avoidance rules. During RL, the current policy both collects trajectories and serves as the analyzer that extracts hindsight skills from them. Policy updates therefore improve subsequent decision making and skill analysis together, allowing hindsight supervision to evolve with the policy. SEED then re-scores the sampled actions under ordinary and skill-augmented contexts, converting the skill-induced probability shift into a dense token-level on-policy distillation signal. This signal is jointly optimized with outcome-based RL, keeping the auxiliary supervision aligned with the current trajectory distribution. Extensive experiments on text-based and vision-based agentic tasks show that SEED consistently improves performance and sample efficiency, exhibiting robust generalization to unseen scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/jinyangwu/SEED.

Social simulation is transforming traditional social science research by modeling human behavior through interactions between virtual individuals and their environments. With recent advances in large language models (LLMs), this approach has shown growing potential in capturing individual differences and predicting group behaviors. However, existing methods face alignment challenges related to the environment, target users, interaction mechanisms, and behavioral patterns. To this end, we introduce SocioVerse, an LLM-agent-driven world model for social simulation. Our framework features four powerful alignment components and a user pool of 10 million real individuals. To validate its effectiveness, we conducted large-scale simulation experiments across three distinct domains: politics, news, and economics. Results demonstrate that SocioVerse can reflect large-scale population dynamics while ensuring diversity, credibility, and representativeness through standardized procedures and minimal manual adjustments.

Outcome-Based Education (OBE) emphasizes the development of specific competencies through student-centered learning. In this study, we reviewed the importance of OBE and implemented transformer-based models, particularly DistilBERT, to analyze an NLP dataset that includes student feedback. Our objective is to assess and improve educational outcomes. Our approach is better than other machine learning models because it uses the transformer's deep understanding of language context to classify sentiment better, giving better results across a wider range of matrices. Our work directly contributes to OBE's goal of achieving measurable outcomes by facilitating the identification of patterns in student learning experiences. We have also applied LIME (local interpretable model-agnostic explanations) to make sure that model predictions are clear. This gives us understandable information about how key terms affect sentiment. Our findings indicate that the combination of transformer models and LIME explanations results in a strong and straightforward framework for analyzing student feedback. This aligns more closely with the principles of OBE and ensures the improvement of educational practices through data-driven insights.

Reliable simulation evaluation of robot manipulation policies serves as a high-fidelity proxy for real-world performance. Although existing benchmarks cover a wide range of task categories, they lack visual realism, creating a large domain gap between simulation and reality. This undermines the reliability of simulation-based evaluation in predicting real-world performance. To mitigate the sim-to-real visual gap, we conduct a systematic analysis to isolate the effects of lighting and material. Our results show that these factors play a critical role in geometric reasoning and spatial grounding, yet are largely overlooked in existing benchmarks. Motivated by the analysis, we propose VISER, a visually realistic benchmark for evaluating robot manipulation in simulation. VISER features a high-fidelity dataset of over 1,000 3D assets with physically-based rendering (PBR) materials, along with 3D scenes created from these assets through curated layouts or generation. To this end, we propose an automated pipeline leveraging Multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) for material-aware part segmentation and material retrieval, enabling scalable generation of physically plausible assets. Building on the high-fidelity 3D asset dataset, we construct diverse evaluation tasks, such as grasping, placing, and long-horizon tasks, enabling scalable and reproducible assessment of Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models. Our benchmark shows a strong correlation between simulation and real-world performance, achieving an average Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.92 across different policies.

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

As NLP evaluation shifts from static benchmarks to multi-turn interactive settings, LLM-based simulators have become widely used as user proxies, serving two roles: generating user turns and providing evaluation signals. Yet, these simulations are frequently assumed to be faithful to real human behaviors, often without rigorous verification. We formalize the Sim2Real gap in user simulation and present the first study running the full τ-bench protocol with real humans (451 participants, 165 tasks), benchmarking 31 LLM simulators across proprietary, open-source, and specialized families using the User-Sim Index (USI), a metric we introduce to quantify how well LLM simulators resemble real user interactive behaviors and feedback. Behaviorally, LLM simulators are excessively cooperative, stylistically uniform, and lack realistic frustration or ambiguity, creating an "easy mode" that inflates agent success rates above the human baseline. In evaluations, real humans provide nuanced judgments across eight quality dimensions while simulated users produce uniformly more positive feedback; rule-based rewards are failing to capture rich feedback signals generated by human users. Overall, higher general model capability does not necessarily yield more faithful user simulation. These findings highlight the importance of human validation when using LLM-based user simulators in the agent development cycle and motivate improved models for user simulation.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly proposed as clinical agents, yet static, single-turn benchmarks cannot capture how a model dynamically delivers care across an encounter: gathering information, planning treatment, and adapting longitudinal management across successive patient states. Medical education has long addressed an analogous challenge through standardized patients (SPs): trained actors who consistently portray clinical cases, enabling realistic practice and objective, scripted assessment. Here we introduce MedSP1000, an SP-derived interactive benchmark for clinical-agent evaluation, including 1,638 SP cases with 24,602 trajectory-level peer-reviewed rubrics. MedSP1000 converts peer-reviewed SP teaching cases into executable scenarios with defined SP case scripts, clinical environment contexts, and human-validated structured rubric. In each simulation evaluation run, a clinical agent interacts in closed loop with a patient agent and an environment controller, and its behaviour is scored throughout the encounter against expert criteria specified in the original materials. Applying MedSP1000 to a range of general-purpose and medically specialized LLMs, we find that performance on static benchmarks does not reliably translate to such educational scenarios. The best-performing model, GPT-5.5, completes only 60.4% of expert-defined rubric items, whereas the strongest medically specialized model reaches 40.0%; increasing test-time compute produces no measurable gain. These results suggest that current LLMs, including agentic systems tuned for medicine, are not yet reliable enough to be safely integrated into actual clinical practice. More broadly, MedSP1000 shows how process-level, SP-style evaluation can reveal clinically relevant failure modes that single-turn benchmarks miss.

Human behavior simulation of AI agents necessitates the agents to possess a quality of believability, which is crucial as it facilitates users in establishing trust toward the agents and streamlines the fulfillment of the agents' goal. While recent advancements in Large Language Model (LLM) based agents have improved human behavior simulation, challenges inherent to LLMs (e.g., long context modeling) can undermine their believability. Consequently, evaluating AI agent believability becomes imperative. Unfortunately, prior research often neglects the negative impacts of LLM deficiencies. To address these gaps, we introduce two metrics for assessing LLM-based agent believability: consistency, and robustness, together with a benchmark, SimulateBench, with which, we evaluate the consistency and robustness of agents implemented with popular LLMs. We find that agents (i) struggle to accurately depict character information when presented with lengthy profile inputs; (ii) exhibit vulnerability to profile perturbations; and (iii) are significantly affected by certain key factors that impact their overall believability. Code and SimulateBench are public at https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/GPTMan.

Recent growth in reinforcement learning (RL) has surfaced a need for diverse, specialized training environments. Hand-curated environments with fixed task and reward difficulties become ineffective signals as model performance improves, and sparse rewards over long horizons induce mode collapse on specific workflows or tool structures. World models that simulate environment states have matched pure rollout performance, making them promising for scaling diversity on-demand. However, autoregressive (AR) world models suffer from a left-to-right bias preventing conditioning on globally interdependent state anchors such as tool schemas, prior turns, and expected outcomes. We (i) formalize text-based world modeling as a steerable transition-dynamics problem decomposed into initial state, task context, tool schemas, domain rules, and steering directives, and (ii) curate 239,403 grounded state-action trajectories spanning nine open-source environments and twelve frontier model families. We compare AR LMs and masked diffusion language models (MDLMs), showing MDLMs, via bidirectional anchor-aware denoising, achieve better coherence, groundedness, and empirically validated rollout diversity than LLMs over 4x their parameter size, at comparable inference latency. We introduce a plug-and-play GRPO training framework with deterministic state checks, and perform zero-shot transfer ablations on three OOD environments (ScienceWorld, ALFWorld, AppWorld) across three 1.2B-7B agent backbones (LFM2.5, Qwen3, Mistral), achieving up to 47% absolute gains over baselines without environment-specific fine-tuning. We further conduct behavioral analysis of failure modes under adversarial scenarios and human evaluation on realism, outcome correctness, and training utility. We open-source our work to encourage research in this direction.

Delayed outcomes are ubiquitous in online experimentation: treatment can affect whether an outcome occurs, when it occurs, and its realized value. To accommodate staggered entry while remaining robust to environmental nonstationarity and unit-level heterogeneity, we adopt a design-based perspective and target the sample cumulative reward in each arm as a function of calendar time. Our confidence sequences allow practitioners to continuously monitor the counterfactual incremental reward, such as revenue, that would have been realized by calendar time t had all entered units been assigned to treatment rather than control. The main technical challenge is the choice of design-based filtration, complicated by the presence of asynchronous potential outcome times. We show that the IPW treatment-effect estimation error is not a martingale with respect to any filtration, while each arm-specific IPW estimation error is a martingale with respect to a carefully chosen arm-specific event-time filtration. We therefore construct a confidence sequence for the treatment effect by combining two arm-level confidence sequences with a union bound, and further demonstrate that this can outperform the traditional design-based variance upper bound. Finally, we characterize the class of augmentations for which the per-arm AIPW estimation error remains a martingale.

Imitation-learning policies for robot manipulation inherit the quality of the success labels attached to their training episodes, and those labels are usually produced by the robot's own success check. A particularly damaging error is the false success: an episode the robot logs as a success when the task outcome was actually wrong. We ask a narrow but practical question about these episodes. Once an episode has already been flagged as a success, how much of the information needed to overturn that label is present in proprioception, and how much requires vision? We build a simulated testbed on two bimanual ALOHA tasks, induce failures through environment perturbations rather than label edits, label every episode by privileged simulator state that the detector never sees, and keep only episodes the robot flagged as successful. We then compare detectors restricted to proprioception against a vision-based detector. We find that recoverability spans a wide range: in cube transfer the false successes are almost fully recoverable from joint data alone, while in peg insertion proprioception recovers only part of them and a vision detector closes most of the gap. We also show that the proprioceptive separability we measure rests on velocity differences far below any realistic sensor noise floor, so it is best read as an optimistic upper bound that a noiseless simulator inflates. We release the generation and evaluation pipeline.

Benchmarks are necessary for healthcare evaluation, but are not sufficient for predicting deployment performance. Our position is that the evaluation--deployment gap arises not because of poorly designed benchmarks, but from implicit assumptions about how users interact with models that cannot be surfaced from benchmarks alone. To make this precise, we propose a classification of assumptions into two categories: task, which can be tested from conversation data alone, and outcome, which requires outcome data and behavioral studies for testing. Critically, outcome assumptions depend on human behavior, something that even well-designed benchmarks cannot directly observe. To demonstrate the operationality of this framework, we retrospectively analyze a healthcare RCT as a case study and find that the gap naturally separates into task and outcome gaps of roughly equal size. To address this, we make two contributions: first, we propose BenchmarkCards, an artifact that documents assumptions, and second, we propose staged evaluation, a procedure that systematically tests assumptions and evaluates performance.

Nowadays, realistic simulation environments are essential to validate and build reliable robotic solutions. This is particularly true when using Reinforcement Learning (RL) based control policies. To this end, both robotics and RL developers need tools and workflows to create physically accurate simulations and synthetic datasets. Gazebo, MuJoCo, Webots, Pybullets or Isaac Sym are some of the many tools available to simulate robotic systems. Developing learning-based methods for space navigation is, due to the highly complex nature of the problem, an intensive data-driven process that requires highly parallelized simulations. When it comes to the control of spacecrafts, there is no easy to use simulation library designed for RL. We address this gap by harnessing the capabilities of NVIDIA Isaac Gym, where both physics simulation and the policy training reside on GPU. Building on this tool, we provide an open-source library enabling users to simulate thousands of parallel spacecrafts, that learn a set of maneuvering tasks, such as position, attitude, and velocity control. These tasks enable to validate complex space scenarios, such as trajectory optimization for landing, docking, rendezvous and more.

The National Airspace System (NAS) is a complex and evolving system that enables safe and efficient aviation. Advanced air mobility concepts and new airspace entrants, such as unmanned aircraft, must integrate into the NAS without degrading overall safety or efficiency. For instance, regulations, standards, and systems are required to mitigate the risk of a midair collision between aircraft. Monte Carlo simulations have been a foundational capability for decades to develop, assess, and certify aircraft conflict avoidance systems. These are often validated through human-in-the-loop experiments and flight testing. For many aviation safety studies, manned aircraft behavior is represented using dynamic Bayesian networks. The original statistical models were developed from 2008-2013 to support safety simulations for altitudes above 500 feet Above Ground Level (AGL). However, these models were not sufficient to assess the safety of smaller UAS operations below 500 feet AGL. In response, newer models with altitude floors below 500 feet AGL have been in development since 2018. Many of the models assume that aircraft behavior is uncorrelated and not dependent on air traffic services or nearby aircraft. Our research objective was to compare the various uncorrelated models of conventional aircraft and identify how the models differ. Particularly if models of rotorcraft were sufficiently different than models of fixed-wing aircraft to require type specific models. The primary contribution is guidance on which uncorrelated models to leverage when evaluating the performance of a collision avoidance system designed for low altitude operations. We also address which models can be surrogates for noncooperative aircraft without transponders.

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly helpful in text generation, even writing code in programming languages based on user prompts written in natural language. They are even applied to generate simulation models for multibody systems from natural language. Research results suggest that LLMs surpass the mere replication of existing code examples, where some LLMs have been trained on an open-source multibody simulation code. However, for closed-source simulation software, such results are not to be expected as their ideas and concepts might differ from other publicly available ones. LLMs can hallucinate for knowledge-intensive tasks, such as model creation, which can lead to wrong responses. This is especially the case for the LLM unknown closed-source simulation software. The same applies to other internal knowledge kept private to protect intellectual property or data privacy. The Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) approach might yield a solution for these knowledge-intensive tasks. This paper explores the application of RAG to closed-source simulation software and presents first experiments. After a brief introduction to LLMs, the RAG approach, and the simulation method applied by the close-source simulation software, several examples are provided to test LLMs' knowledge of the simulation software and the creation of simulation models using two RAG systems. The examples show promising results indicating the benefits of applying RAG systems to closed-source simulation software, helping to access their knowledge. Nevertheless, they also reveal gaps in the applied information and open questions for further research.

User simulation is important for developing and evaluating human-centered AI, yet current student simulation in educational applications has significant limitations. Existing approaches focus on single learning experiences and do not account for students' gradual knowledge construction and evolving skill sets. Moreover, large language models are optimized to produce direct and accurate responses, making it challenging to represent the incomplete understanding and developmental constraints that characterize real learners. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework for memory-based student simulation that incorporates developmental trajectories through a hierarchical memory mechanism with structured knowledge representation. The framework also integrates metacognitive processes and personality traits to enrich the individual learner profiling, through dynamical consolidation of both cognitive development and personal learning characteristics. In practice, we implement a curriculum-aligned simulator grounded on the Next Generation Science Standards. Experimental results show that our approach can effectively reflect the gradual nature of knowledge development and the characteristic difficulties students face, providing a more accurate representation of learning processes.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

The global cost of drug discovery and development exceeds $200 billion annually. The main results of drug discovery and development are the outcomes of clinical trials, which directly influence the regulatory approval of new drug candidates and ultimately affect patient outcomes. Despite their significance, large-scale, high-quality clinical trial outcome data are not readily available to the public. Suppose a large clinical trial outcome dataset is provided; machine learning researchers can potentially develop accurate prediction models using past trials and outcome labels, which could help prioritize and optimize therapeutic programs, ultimately benefiting patients. This paper introduces Clinical Trial Outcome (CTO) dataset, the largest trial outcome dataset with around 479K clinical trials, aggregating outcomes from multiple sources of weakly supervised labels, minimizing the noise from individual sources, and eliminating the need for human annotation. These sources include large language model (LLM) decisions on trial-related documents, news headline sentiments, stock prices of trial sponsors, trial linkages across phases, and other signals such as patient dropout rates and adverse events. CTO's labels show unprecedented agreement with supervised clinical trial outcome labels from test split of the supervised TOP dataset, with a 91 F1.

Generative models trained on internet data have revolutionized how text, image, and video content can be created. Perhaps the next milestone for generative models is to simulate realistic experience in response to actions taken by humans, robots, and other interactive agents. Applications of a real-world simulator range from controllable content creation in games and movies, to training embodied agents purely in simulation that can be directly deployed in the real world. We explore the possibility of learning a universal simulator (UniSim) of real-world interaction through generative modeling. We first make the important observation that natural datasets available for learning a real-world simulator are often rich along different axes (e.g., abundant objects in image data, densely sampled actions in robotics data, and diverse movements in navigation data). With careful orchestration of diverse datasets, each providing a different aspect of the overall experience, UniSim can emulate how humans and agents interact with the world by simulating the visual outcome of both high-level instructions such as "open the drawer" and low-level controls such as "move by x, y" from otherwise static scenes and objects. There are numerous use cases for such a real-world simulator. As an example, we use UniSim to train both high-level vision-language planners and low-level reinforcement learning policies, each of which exhibit zero-shot real-world transfer after training purely in a learned real-world simulator. We also show that other types of intelligence such as video captioning models can benefit from training with simulated experience in UniSim, opening up even wider applications. Video demos can be found at https://universal-simulator.github.io.

A World Model is a generative model used to simulate an environment. World Models have proven capable of learning spatial and temporal representations of Reinforcement Learning environments. In some cases, a World Model offers an agent the opportunity to learn entirely inside of its own dream environment. In this work we explore improving the generalization capabilities from dream environments to real environments (Dream2Real). We present a general approach to improve a controller's ability to transfer from a neural network dream environment to reality at little additional cost. These improvements are gained by drawing on inspiration from Domain Randomization, where the basic idea is to randomize as much of a simulator as possible without fundamentally changing the task at hand. Generally, Domain Randomization assumes access to a pre-built simulator with configurable parameters but oftentimes this is not available. By training the World Model using dropout, the dream environment is capable of creating a nearly infinite number of different dream environments. Previous use cases of dropout either do not use dropout at inference time or averages the predictions generated by multiple sampled masks (Monte-Carlo Dropout). Dropout's Dream Land leverages each unique mask to create a diverse set of dream environments. Our experimental results show that Dropout's Dream Land is an effective technique to bridge the reality gap between dream environments and reality. Furthermore, we additionally perform an extensive set of ablation studies.

Physical simulations produce excellent predictions of weather effects. Neural radiance fields produce SOTA scene models. We describe a novel NeRF-editing procedure that can fuse physical simulations with NeRF models of scenes, producing realistic movies of physical phenomena in those scenes. Our application -- Climate NeRF -- allows people to visualize what climate change outcomes will do to them. ClimateNeRF allows us to render realistic weather effects, including smog, snow, and flood. Results can be controlled with physically meaningful variables like water level. Qualitative and quantitative studies show that our simulated results are significantly more realistic than those from SOTA 2D image editing and SOTA 3D NeRF stylization.

Simulation agents are essential for designing and testing systems that interact with humans, such as autonomous vehicles (AVs). These agents serve various purposes, from benchmarking AV performance to stress-testing the system's limits, but all use cases share a key requirement: reliability. A simulation agent should behave as intended by the designer, minimizing unintended actions like collisions that can compromise the signal-to-noise ratio of analyses. As a foundation for reliable sim agents, we propose scaling self-play to thousands of scenarios on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset under semi-realistic limits on human perception and control. Training from scratch on a single GPU, our agents nearly solve the full training set within a day. They generalize effectively to unseen test scenes, achieving a 99.8% goal completion rate with less than 0.8% combined collision and off-road incidents across 10,000 held-out scenarios. Beyond in-distribution generalization, our agents show partial robustness to out-of-distribution scenes and can be fine-tuned in minutes to reach near-perfect performance in those cases. Demonstrations of agent behaviors can be found at this link. We open-source both the pre-trained agents and the complete code base. Demonstrations of agent behaviors can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/reliable-sim-agents.

Navigation and manipulation are core capabilities in Embodied AI, yet training agents with these capabilities in the real world faces high costs and time complexity. Therefore, sim-to-real transfer has emerged as a key approach, yet the sim-to-real gap persists. This survey examines how physics simulators address this gap by analyzing their properties overlooked in previous surveys. We also analyze their features for navigation and manipulation tasks, along with hardware requirements. Additionally, we offer a resource with benchmark datasets, metrics, simulation platforms, and cutting-edge methods-such as world models and geometric equivariance-to help researchers select suitable tools while accounting for hardware constraints.

This paper presents CG-Eval, the first comprehensive evaluation of the generation capabilities of large Chinese language models across a wide range of academic disciplines. The models' performance was assessed based on their ability to generate accurate and relevant responses to different types of questions in six disciplines, namely, Science and Engineering, Humanities and Social Sciences, Mathematical Calculations, Medical Practitioner Qualification Examination, Judicial Examination, and Certified Public Accountant Examination. This paper also presents Gscore, a composite index derived from the weighted sum of multiple metrics to measure the quality of model's generation against a reference. The test data and test results can be found at http://cgeval.besteasy.com/.

VR simulation in Health Professions (HP) education demonstrates huge potential, but fixed learning content with little customization limits its application beyond lab environments. To address these limitations in the context of VR for patient communication training, we conducted a user-centered study involving semi-structured interviews with advanced HP students to understand their challenges in clinical communication training and perceptions of VR-based solutions. From this, we derived design insights emphasizing the importance of realistic scenarios, simple interactions, and unpredictable dialogues. Building on these insights, we developed the Virtual AI Patient Simulator (VAPS), a novel VR system powered by Large Language Models (LLMs) and Embodied Conversational Agents (ECAs), supporting dynamic and customizable patient interactions for immersive learning. We also provided an example of how clinical professors could use user-friendly design forms to create personalized scenarios that align with course objectives in VAPS and discuss future implications of integrating AI-driven technologies into VR education.

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data. However, relevant external data are typically available as averages only, for example from trials on alternative treatments reported in the literature. Here we report on such an example from a drug development for wet age-related macular degeneration. This disease is the leading cause of severe vision loss in the elderly. While current treatment options are efficacious, they are also a substantial burden for the patient. Hence, new treatments are under development which need to be compared against existing treatments. The general statistical problem this leads to is meta-analysis, which addresses the question of how we can combine datasets collected under different conditions. Bayesian methods have long been used to achieve partial pooling. Here we consider the challenge when the model of interest is complex (hierarchical and nonlinear) and one dataset is given as raw data while the second dataset is given as averages only. In such a situation, common meta-analytic methods can only be applied when the model is sufficiently simple for analytic approaches. When the model is too complex, for example nonlinear, an analytic approach is not possible. We provide a Bayesian solution by using simulation to approximately reconstruct the likelihood of the external summary and allowing the parameters in the model to vary under the different conditions. We first evaluate our approach using fake-data simulations and then report results for the drug development program that motivated this research.

Generative models aim to simulate realistic effects of various actions across different contexts, from text generation to visual effects. Despite significant efforts to build real-world simulators, the application of generative models to virtual worlds, like financial markets, remains under-explored. In financial markets, generative models can simulate complex market effects of participants with various behaviors, enabling interaction under different market conditions, and training strategies without financial risk. This simulation relies on the finest structured data in financial market like orders thus building the finest realistic simulation. We propose Large Market Model (LMM), an order-level generative foundation model, for financial market simulation, akin to language modeling in the digital world. Our financial Market Simulation engine (MarS), powered by LMM, addresses the domain-specific need for realistic, interactive and controllable order generation. Key observations include LMM's strong scalability across data size and model complexity, and MarS's robust and practicable realism in controlled generation with market impact. We showcase MarS as a forecast tool, detection system, analysis platform, and agent training environment, thus demonstrating MarS's "paradigm shift" potential for a variety of financial applications. We release the code of MarS at https://github.com/microsoft/MarS/.

Online medical consultation (OMC) restricts doctors to gathering patient information solely through inquiries, making the already complex sequential decision-making process of diagnosis even more challenging. Recently, the rapid advancement of large language models has demonstrated a significant potential to transform OMC. However, most studies have primarily focused on improving diagnostic accuracy under conditions of relatively sufficient information, while paying limited attention to the "inquiry" phase of the consultation process. This lack of focus has left the relationship between "inquiry" and "diagnosis" insufficiently explored. In this paper, we first extract real patient interaction strategies from authentic doctor-patient conversations and use these strategies to guide the training of a patient simulator that closely mirrors real-world behavior. By inputting medical records into our patient simulator to simulate patient responses, we conduct extensive experiments to explore the relationship between "inquiry" and "diagnosis" in the consultation process. Experimental results demonstrate that inquiry and diagnosis adhere to the Liebig's law: poor inquiry quality limits the effectiveness of diagnosis, regardless of diagnostic capability, and vice versa. Furthermore, the experiments reveal significant differences in the inquiry performance of various models. To investigate this phenomenon, we categorize the inquiry process into four types: (1) chief complaint inquiry; (2) specification of known symptoms; (3) inquiry about accompanying symptoms; and (4) gathering family or medical history. We analyze the distribution of inquiries across the four types for different models to explore the reasons behind their significant performance differences. We plan to open-source the weights and related code of our patient simulator at https://github.com/LIO-H-ZEN/PatientSimulator.

Simulating human clients in mental health counseling is crucial for training and evaluating counselors (both human or simulated) in a scalable manner. Nevertheless, past research on client simulation did not focus on complex conversation tasks such as mental health counseling. In these tasks, the challenge is to ensure that the client's actions (i.e., interactions with the counselor) are consistent with with its stipulated profiles and negative behavior settings. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that supports consistent client simulation for mental health counseling. Our framework tracks the mental state of a simulated client, controls its state transitions, and generates for each state behaviors consistent with the client's motivation, beliefs, preferred plan to change, and receptivity. By varying the client profile and receptivity, we demonstrate that consistent simulated clients for different counseling scenarios can be effectively created. Both our automatic and expert evaluations on the generated counseling sessions also show that our client simulation method achieves higher consistency than previous methods.

We introduce RoboEval, a structured evaluation framework and benchmark for robotic manipulation that augments binary success with principled behavioral and outcome metrics. Existing evaluations often collapse performance into outcome counts, masking differences in execution quality and obscuring failure structure. RoboEval provides eight bimanual tasks with systematically controlled variations, more than three thousand expert demonstrations, and a modular simulation platform for reproducible experimentation. All tasks are instrumented with standardized metrics that quantify efficiency, coordination, and safety/stability, as well as outcome measures that trace stagewise progress and localize failure modes. Through extensive experiments with state-of-the-art visuomotor policies, we validate these metrics by analyzing their stability under variation, discriminative power across policies with similar success rates, and correlation with task success. Project Page: https://robo-eval.github.io

We evaluated 4 systems (ELIZA, GPT-4o, LLaMa-3.1-405B, and GPT-4.5) in two randomised, controlled, and pre-registered Turing tests on independent populations. Participants had 5 minute conversations simultaneously with another human participant and one of these systems before judging which conversational partner they thought was human. When prompted to adopt a humanlike persona, GPT-4.5 was judged to be the human 73% of the time: significantly more often than interrogators selected the real human participant. LLaMa-3.1, with the same prompt, was judged to be the human 56% of the time -- not significantly more or less often than the humans they were being compared to -- while baseline models (ELIZA and GPT-4o) achieved win rates significantly below chance (23% and 21% respectively). The results constitute the first empirical evidence that any artificial system passes a standard three-party Turing test. The results have implications for debates about what kind of intelligence is exhibited by Large Language Models (LLMs), and the social and economic impacts these systems are likely to have.

Current question-answering benchmarks predominantly focus on accuracy in realizable prediction tasks. Conditioned on a question and answer-key, does the most likely token match the ground truth? Such benchmarks necessarily fail to evaluate LLMs' ability to quantify ground-truth outcome uncertainty. In this work, we focus on the use of LLMs as risk scores for unrealizable prediction tasks. We introduce folktexts, a software package to systematically generate risk scores using LLMs, and evaluate them against US Census data products. A flexible API enables the use of different prompting schemes, local or web-hosted models, and diverse census columns that can be used to compose custom prediction tasks. We evaluate 17 recent LLMs across five proposed benchmark tasks. We find that zero-shot risk scores produced by multiple-choice question-answering have high predictive signal but are widely miscalibrated. Base models consistently overestimate outcome uncertainty, while instruction-tuned models underestimate uncertainty and produce over-confident risk scores. In fact, instruction-tuning polarizes answer distribution regardless of true underlying data uncertainty. This reveals a general inability of instruction-tuned LLMs to express data uncertainty using multiple-choice answers. A separate experiment using verbalized chat-style risk queries yields substantially improved calibration across instruction-tuned models. These differences in ability to quantify data uncertainty cannot be revealed in realizable settings, and highlight a blind-spot in the current evaluation ecosystem that folktexts covers.

Simulation plays a crucial role in the development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) due to the potential risks associated with real-world testing. Although significant progress has been made in the visual aspects of simulators, generating complex behavior among agents remains a formidable challenge. It is not only imperative to ensure realism in the scenarios generated but also essential to incorporate preferences and conditions to facilitate controllable generation for AV training and evaluation. Traditional methods, mainly relying on memorizing the distribution of training datasets, often fall short in generating unseen scenarios. Inspired by the success of retrieval augmented generation in large language models, we present RealGen, a novel retrieval-based in-context learning framework for traffic scenario generation. RealGen synthesizes new scenarios by combining behaviors from multiple retrieved examples in a gradient-free way, which may originate from templates or tagged scenarios. This in-context learning framework endows versatile generative capabilities, including the ability to edit scenarios, compose various behaviors, and produce critical scenarios. Evaluations show that RealGen offers considerable flexibility and controllability, marking a new direction in the field of controllable traffic scenario generation. Check our project website for more information: https://realgen.github.io.

We investigate how to enhance the physical fidelity of video generation models by leveraging synthetic videos derived from computer graphics pipelines. These rendered videos respect real-world physics, such as maintaining 3D consistency, and serve as a valuable resource that can potentially improve video generation models. To harness this potential, we propose a solution that curates and integrates synthetic data while introducing a method to transfer its physical realism to the model, significantly reducing unwanted artifacts. Through experiments on three representative tasks emphasizing physical consistency, we demonstrate its efficacy in enhancing physical fidelity. While our model still lacks a deep understanding of physics, our work offers one of the first empirical demonstrations that synthetic video enhances physical fidelity in video synthesis. Website: https://kevinz8866.github.io/simulation/

Surgical robot automation has attracted increasing research interest over the past decade, expecting its potential to benefit surgeons, nurses and patients. Recently, the learning paradigm of embodied intelligence has demonstrated promising ability to learn good control policies for various complex tasks, where embodied AI simulators play an essential role to facilitate relevant research. However, existing open-sourced simulators for surgical robot are still not sufficiently supporting human interactions through physical input devices, which further limits effective investigations on how the human demonstrations would affect policy learning. In this work, we study human-in-the-loop embodied intelligence with a new interactive simulation platform for surgical robot learning. Specifically, we establish our platform based on our previously released SurRoL simulator with several new features co-developed to allow high-quality human interaction via an input device. We showcase the improvement of our simulation environment with the designed new features, and validate effectiveness of incorporating human factors in embodied intelligence through the use of human demonstrations and reinforcement learning as a representative example. Promising results are obtained in terms of learning efficiency. Lastly, five new surgical robot training tasks are developed and released, with which we hope to pave the way for future research on surgical embodied intelligence. Our learning platform is publicly released and will be continuously updated in the website: https://med-air.github.io/SurRoL.

Generative models trained using self-supervision of tokenized electronic health record (EHR) timelines show promise for clinical outcome prediction. This is typically done using Monte Carlo simulation for future patient trajectories. However, existing approaches suffer from three key limitations: sparse estimate distributions that poorly differentiate patient risk levels, extreme computational costs, and high sampling variance. We propose two new estimators: the Sum of Conditional Outcome Probability Estimator (SCOPE) and Risk Estimation from Anticipated Conditional Hazards (REACH), that leverage next-token probability distributions discarded by standard Monte Carlo. We prove both estimators are unbiased and that REACH guarantees variance reduction over Monte Carlo sampling for any model and outcome. Empirically, on hospital mortality prediction in MIMIC-IV using the ETHOS-ARES framework, SCOPE and REACH match 100-sample Monte Carlo performance using only 10-11 samples (95% CI: [9,11]), representing a ~10x reduction in inference cost without degrading calibration. For ICU admission prediction, efficiency gains are more modest (~1.2x), which we attribute to the outcome's lower "spontaneity," a property we characterize theoretically and empirically. These methods substantially improve the feasibility of deploying generative EHR models in resource-constrained clinical settings.

The recent advancements in text-to-3D generation mark a significant milestone in generative models, unlocking new possibilities for creating imaginative 3D assets across various real-world scenarios. While recent advancements in text-to-3D generation have shown promise, they often fall short in rendering detailed and high-quality 3D models. This problem is especially prevalent as many methods base themselves on Score Distillation Sampling (SDS). This paper identifies a notable deficiency in SDS, that it brings inconsistent and low-quality updating direction for the 3D model, causing the over-smoothing effect. To address this, we propose a novel approach called Interval Score Matching (ISM). ISM employs deterministic diffusing trajectories and utilizes interval-based score matching to counteract over-smoothing. Furthermore, we incorporate 3D Gaussian Splatting into our text-to-3D generation pipeline. Extensive experiments show that our model largely outperforms the state-of-the-art in quality and training efficiency.

This paper aims to provide a proof of concept of the accuracy of simulations for advanced networking study. The particular target technology is the Differentiated Services (DiffServ) architecture. The method has been to apply experimental activities conducted in a real network to a simulation environment, to gather the same performance parameters and to compare results. A worthy re-engineering of the DiffServ module of the deployed software program has been carried out and significant contribution have been made to overcome the encountered limitations and to enrich its modeling capabilities. Final results give useful suggestions for a more critical approach to simulations targeted for advanced networking study.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly utilized for mental health support; however, current safety benchmarks often fail to detect the complex, longitudinal risks inherent in therapeutic dialogue. We introduce an evaluation framework that pairs AI psychotherapists with simulated patient agents equipped with dynamic cognitive-affective models and assesses therapy session simulations against a comprehensive quality of care and risk ontology. We apply this framework to a high-impact test case, Alcohol Use Disorder, evaluating six AI agents (including ChatGPT, Gemini, and Character.AI) against a clinically-validated cohort of 15 patient personas representing diverse clinical phenotypes. Our large-scale simulation (N=369 sessions) reveals critical safety gaps in the use of AI for mental health support. We identify specific iatrogenic risks, including the validation of patient delusions ("AI Psychosis") and failure to de-escalate suicide risk. Finally, we validate an interactive data visualization dashboard with diverse stakeholders, including AI engineers and red teamers, mental health professionals, and policy experts (N=9), demonstrating that this framework effectively enables stakeholders to audit the "black box" of AI psychotherapy. These findings underscore the critical safety risks of AI-provided mental health support and the necessity of simulation-based clinical red teaming before deployment.

Large-language models have recently demonstrated impressive zero-shot capabilities in a variety of natural language tasks such as summarization, dialogue generation, and question-answering. Despite many promising applications in clinical medicine, adoption of these models in real-world settings has been largely limited by their tendency to generate incorrect and sometimes even toxic statements. In this study, we develop Almanac, a large language model framework augmented with retrieval capabilities for medical guideline and treatment recommendations. Performance on a novel dataset of clinical scenarios (n = 130) evaluated by a panel of 5 board-certified and resident physicians demonstrates significant increases in factuality (mean of 18% at p-value < 0.05) across all specialties, with improvements in completeness and safety. Our results demonstrate the potential for large language models to be effective tools in the clinical decision-making process, while also emphasizing the importance of careful testing and deployment to mitigate their shortcomings.

In this paper, we push the boundaries of fine-grained 3D generation into truly creative territory. Current methods either lack intricate details or simply mimic existing objects -- we enable both. By lifting 2D fine-grained understanding into 3D through multi-view diffusion and modeling part latents as continuous distributions, we unlock the ability to generate entirely new, yet plausible parts through interpolation and sampling. A self-supervised feature consistency loss further ensures stable generation of these unseen parts. The result is the first system capable of creating novel 3D objects with species-specific details that transcend existing examples. While we demonstrate our approach on birds, the underlying framework extends beyond things that can chirp! Code will be released at https://github.com/kamwoh/chirpy3d.

The massive population election simulation aims to model the preferences of specific groups in particular election scenarios. It has garnered significant attention for its potential to forecast real-world social trends. Traditional agent-based modeling (ABM) methods are constrained by their ability to incorporate complex individual background information and provide interactive prediction results. In this paper, we introduce ElectionSim, an innovative election simulation framework based on large language models, designed to support accurate voter simulations and customized distributions, together with an interactive platform to dialogue with simulated voters. We present a million-level voter pool sampled from social media platforms to support accurate individual simulation. We also introduce PPE, a poll-based presidential election benchmark to assess the performance of our framework under the U.S. presidential election scenario. Through extensive experiments and analyses, we demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of our framework in U.S. presidential election simulations.

Purpose. Patients with advanced cancer may undergo multiple lines of treatment, switching therapies as their disease progresses. Motivated by a study of metastatic prostate cancer, we develop a microsimulation framework to study therapy sequence. Methods. We propose a discrete-time state transition model to study two lines of anti-cancer therapy. Based on digitized published progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) curves, we infer event types (progression or death), and estimate transition probabilities using cumulative incidence functions with competing risks. Our model incorporates within-patient dependence over time, such that response to first-line therapy informs subsequent event probabilities. Parameters governing the degree of within-patient dependence can be used to calibrate the model-based results to those of a target trial. We demonstrate these methods in a study of two therapy sequences for metastatic prostate cancer, where Docetaxel (DCT) and Abiraterone Acetate (AA) are both appropriate for use in either first or second line treatment. We assess costs, Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) and Incremental Cost Effectiveness Ratio (ICER) for two treatment strategies: DCT then AA vs AA then DCT. Results. Using digitized survival curves from relevant clinical trials, we identified 8.6-13.9% of PFS times that should be categorized as deaths, allowing for estimation of cumulative incidence functions. Models assuming within-patient independence overestimated OS time, corrected with our calibration approach. Correction resulted in meaningful changes in the difference in QALYs between treatment strategies (0.07 vs 0.15) and the ICER (-\76,836/QALY vs -21,030/QALY). Conclusions. Microsimulation models can be successfully used to study cost-effectiveness of therapy sequences, taking care to account correctly for within-patient dependence.

Different from its counterpart outcome reward models (ORMs), which evaluate the entire responses, a process reward model (PRM) scores a reasoning trajectory step by step, providing denser and more fine grained rewards. However, training a PRM requires labels annotated at every intermediate step, presenting significant challenges for both manual and automatic data collection. This paper aims to address this challenge. Both theoretically and empirically, we show that an implicit PRM can be obtained at no additional cost, by simply training an ORM on the cheaper response-level labels. The only assumption is to parameterize the outcome reward as the log-likelihood ratios of the policy and reference models, which can be optimized regardless of the specific choice of loss objectives. In experiments, we instantiate our implicit PRMs with various objectives and evaluate their performance on MATH. We show that our implicit PRM outperforms a strong MCTS-based baseline \'a la Math-Shepherd using less than 1/38 of the training data. Its performance can be further improved with majority voting. We further find that scaling up instructions and responses benefits our implicit PRM, and the latter brings a larger gain. Particularly, we find that our implicit PRM, when instantiated with the cross-entropy (CE) loss, is more data-efficient and can keep improving generation models even when trained with only one response per instruction, the setup that suffers from extreme data scarcity and imbalance. Further, instructions should be relevant to downstream tasks while the diversity of responses does not bring gains. Surprisingly, training on extra Math-Shepherd step labels brings no further improvements to our implicit PRM trained on only outcome data. We hope that our work will encourage a rethinking of PRM training approaches and contribute to making training PRMs more accessible.

AI agents are being increasingly deployed in dynamic, open-ended environments that require adapting to new information as it arrives. To efficiently measure this capability for realistic use-cases, we propose building grounded simulations that replay real-world events in the order they occurred. We build FutureSim, where agents forecast world events beyond their knowledge cutoff while interacting with a chronological replay of the world: real news articles arriving and questions resolving over the simulated period. We evaluate frontier agents in their native harness, testing their ability to predict world events over a three-month period from January to March 2026. FutureSim reveals a clear separation in their capabilities, with the best agent's accuracy being 25%, and many having worse Brier skill score than making no prediction at all. Through careful ablations, we show how FutureSim offers a realistic setting to study emerging research directions like long-horizon test-time adaptation, search, memory, and reasoning about uncertainty. Overall, we hope our benchmark design paves the way to measure AI progress on open-ended adaptation spanning long time-horizons in the real world.

In this work, we introduce an efficient generation procedure to produce synthetic multi-modal datasets of fluid simulations. The procedure can reproduce the dynamics of fluid flows and allows for exploring and learning various properties of their complex behavior, from distinct perspectives and modalities. We employ our framework to generate a set of thoughtfully designed training datasets, which attempt to span specific fluid simulation scenarios in a meaningful way. The properties of our contributions are demonstrated by evaluating recently published algorithms for the neural fluid simulation and fluid inverse rendering tasks using our benchmark datasets. Our contribution aims to fulfill the community's need for standardized training data, fostering more reproducibile and robust research.

As AI systems pervade human life, ensuring that large language models (LLMs) make safe decisions remains a significant challenge. We introduce the Governance of the Commons Simulation (GovSim), a generative simulation platform designed to study strategic interactions and cooperative decision-making in LLMs. In GovSim, a society of AI agents must collectively balance exploiting a common resource with sustaining it for future use. This environment enables the study of how ethical considerations, strategic planning, and negotiation skills impact cooperative outcomes. We develop an LLM-based agent architecture and test it with the leading open and closed LLMs. We find that all but the most powerful LLM agents fail to achieve a sustainable equilibrium in GovSim, with the highest survival rate below 54%. Ablations reveal that successful multi-agent communication between agents is critical for achieving cooperation in these cases. Furthermore, our analyses show that the failure to achieve sustainable cooperation in most LLMs stems from their inability to formulate and analyze hypotheses about the long-term effects of their actions on the equilibrium of the group. Finally, we show that agents that leverage "Universalization"-based reasoning, a theory of moral thinking, are able to achieve significantly better sustainability. Taken together, GovSim enables us to study the mechanisms that underlie sustainable self-government with specificity and scale. We open source the full suite of our research results, including the simulation environment, agent prompts, and a comprehensive web interface.

While LLM/VLM-powered AI agents have advanced rapidly in math, coding, and computer use, their applications in complex physical and social environments remain challenging. Building agents that can survive and thrive in the real world (for example, by autonomously earning income or running a business) requires massive-scale interaction, reasoning, training, and evaluation across diverse embodied scenarios. However, existing world simulators for such development fall short: they often rely on limited hand-crafted environments, simulate simplified game-like physics and social rules, and lack native support for LLM/VLM agents. We introduce SimWorld, a new simulator built on Unreal Engine 5, designed for developing and evaluating LLM/VLM agents in rich, real-world-like settings. SimWorld offers three core capabilities: (1) realistic, open-ended world simulation, including accurate physical and social dynamics and language-driven procedural environment generation; (2) a rich interface for LLM/VLM agents, with multimodal world inputs and open-vocabulary actions at varying levels of abstraction; and (3) diverse and extensible physical and social reasoning scenarios that are easily customizable by users. We demonstrate SimWorld by deploying frontier LLM agents (e.g., GPT-4o, Gemini-2.5-Flash, Claude-3.5, and DeepSeek-Prover-V2) on long-horizon multi-agent delivery tasks involving strategic cooperation and competition. The results reveal distinct reasoning patterns and limitations across models. We open-source SimWorld and hope it becomes a foundational platform for advancing real-world agent intelligence across disciplines: https://simworld.org.

In recent years, Artificial Intelligence Generated Content (AIGC) has advanced from text-to-image generation to text-to-video and multimodal video synthesis. However, generating playable games presents significant challenges due to the stringent requirements for real-time interaction, high visual quality, and accurate simulation of game mechanics. Existing approaches often fall short, either lacking real-time capabilities or failing to accurately simulate interactive mechanics. To tackle the playability issue, we propose a novel method called PlayGen, which encompasses game data generation, an autoregressive DiT-based diffusion model, and a comprehensive playability-based evaluation framework. Validated on well-known 2D and 3D games, PlayGen achieves real-time interaction, ensures sufficient visual quality, and provides accurate interactive mechanics simulation. Notably, these results are sustained even after over 1000 frames of gameplay on an NVIDIA RTX 2060 GPU. Our code is publicly available: https://github.com/GreatX3/Playable-Game-Generation. Our playable demo generated by AI is: http://124.156.151.207.

Long-horizon LLM agents depend on intermediate information-gathering turns, yet training feedback is usually observed only at the final answer, because process-level rewards require high-quality human annotation. Existing turn-level shaping methods reward turns that increase the likelihood of a gold answer, but they require answer supervision or stable task-specific verifiers. Conversely, label-free RL methods extract self-signals from output distributions, but mainly at the answer or trajectory level and therefore cannot assign credit to intermediate turns. We propose Self-Induced Outcome Potential (SIOP), which treats semantic clusters of final answers as latent future outcome states for potential-based turn-level credit assignment. For each query, SIOP samples multiple rollouts, clusters final answers into semantic outcome modes, and builds a reliability-aware target distribution over these states. It then rewards turns for increasing posterior support for reliable future states using a tractable cluster-level approximation. The objective generalizes information-potential shaping from gold-answer supervision to settings without task-specific gold verifiers while avoiding the broadcasted rollout-level advantages used by standard GRPO. We formalize the framework, characterize its supervised gold-answer limit, and show that SIOP improves average performance over verifier-free outcome-level baselines on seven search-augmented agentic reasoning benchmarks while approaching a gold-supervised outcome baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/dl-m9/SIOP.git.

Robotic simulators play a crucial role in the development and testing of autonomous systems, particularly in the realm of Uncrewed Aerial Vehicles (UAV). However, existing simulators often lack high-level autonomy, hindering their immediate applicability to complex tasks such as autonomous navigation in unknown environments. This limitation stems from the challenge of integrating realistic physics, photorealistic rendering, and diverse sensor modalities into a single simulation environment. At the same time, the existing photorealistic UAV simulators use mostly hand-crafted environments with limited environment sizes, which prevents the testing of long-range missions. This restricts the usage of existing simulators to only low-level tasks such as control and collision avoidance. To this end, we propose the novel FlightForge UAV open-source simulator. FlightForge offers advanced rendering capabilities, diverse control modalities, and, foremost, procedural generation of environments. Moreover, the simulator is already integrated with a fully autonomous UAV system capable of long-range flights in cluttered unknown environments. The key innovation lies in novel procedural environment generation and seamless integration of high-level autonomy into the simulation environment. Experimental results demonstrate superior sensor rendering capability compared to existing simulators, and also the ability of autonomous navigation in almost infinite environments.

Realistic physics engines play a crucial role for learning to manipulate deformable objects such as garments in simulation. By doing so, researchers can circumvent challenges such as sensing the deformation of the object in the realworld. In spite of the extensive use of simulations for this task, few works have evaluated the reality gap between deformable object simulators and real-world data. We present a benchmark dataset to evaluate the sim-to-real gap in cloth manipulation. The dataset is collected by performing a dynamic as well as a quasi-static cloth manipulation task involving contact with a rigid table. We use the dataset to evaluate the reality gap, computational time, and simulation stability of four popular deformable object simulators: MuJoCo, Bullet, Flex, and SOFA. Additionally, we discuss the benefits and drawbacks of each simulator. The benchmark dataset is open-source. Supplementary material, videos, and code, can be found at https://sites.google.com/view/cloth-sim2real-benchmark.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

Observational studies of causal effects require adjustment for confounding factors. In the tabular setting, where these factors are well-defined, separate random variables, the effect of confounding is well understood. However, in public policy, ecology, and in medicine, decisions are often made in non-tabular settings, informed by patterns or objects detected in images (e.g., maps, satellite or tomography imagery). Using such imagery for causal inference presents an opportunity because objects in the image may be related to the treatment and outcome of interest. In these cases, we rely on the images to adjust for confounding but observed data do not directly label the existence of the important objects. Motivated by real-world applications, we formalize this challenge, how it can be handled, and what conditions are sufficient to identify and estimate causal effects. We analyze finite-sample performance using simulation experiments, estimating effects using a propensity adjustment algorithm that employs a machine learning model to estimate the image confounding. Our experiments also examine sensitivity to misspecification of the image pattern mechanism. Finally, we use our methodology to estimate the effects of policy interventions on poverty in African communities from satellite imagery.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used to simulate human populations via persona prompting, often under the assumptions that richer persona descriptions improve behavioral fidelity, similarly sized attribute combinations are equally simulatable, and persona definitions generalize across tasks. In this work, we formalize these assumptions and systematically evaluate them across multiple architectures, scales, and simulation settings. We identify a fundamental limitation we term persona manifold collapse, where increasingly expressive persona specifications lead to systematic contraction of representational and behavioral diversity. Across models, increasing persona complexity consistently reduces inter-persona separation in latent space and weakens behavioral differentiation in downstream simulation tasks. These effects persist across multiple analyses as richer personas fail to preserve human subgroup disagreement, performance varies across attribute combinations of similar size, and adding descriptive detail often degrades rather than improves simulation fidelity. Surprisingly, simple Age-Gender personas consistently outperform richly specified Ideal Customer Profiles (ICPs) across industries, achieving substantially higher downstream prediction accuracy. We find that collapse is not uniform across attributes. Certain combinations remain behaviorally stable and preserve stronger alignment with human responses, forming localized regions we term alignment bridges. Together, our results provide empirical and conceptual foundations for understanding the limits of persona-conditioned simulation, highlighting the need for representation-aware persona construction rather than increasing persona expressivity alone.

Recent advancements in generative models have unlocked the capabilities to render photo-realistic data in a controllable fashion. Trained on the real data, these generative models are capable of producing realistic samples with minimal to no domain gap, as compared to the traditional graphics rendering. However, using the data generated using such models for training downstream tasks remains under-explored, mainly due to the lack of 3D consistent annotations. Moreover, controllable generative models are learned from massive data and their latent space is often too vast to obtain meaningful sample distributions for downstream task with limited generation. To overcome these challenges, we extract 3D consistent annotations from an existing controllable generative model, making the data useful for downstream tasks. Our experiments show competitive performance against state-of-the-art models using only generated synthetic data, demonstrating potential for solving downstream tasks. Project page: https://synth-forge.github.io

Two benchmark problems for linear radiation transport and derived from the literature are presented in detail and several quantities of interest are defined. High-resolution simulations are computed using standard, robust numerical methods and implemented using HPC resources. The goal of these simulations is to provide reference solutions for new discretization approaches, to aid in the development of multi-fidelity uncertainty quantification and optimization algorithms, to provide data for training surrogates models. The code used to perform the simulations and post-process the data is publicly available, as is the raw data that used to generate the results presented in the paper.

3D data simulation aims to bridge the gap between simulated and real-captured 3D data, which is a fundamental problem for real-world 3D visual tasks. Most 3D data simulation methods inject predefined physical priors but struggle to capture the full complexity of real data. An optimal approach involves learning an implicit mapping from synthetic to realistic data in a data-driven manner, but progress in this solution has met stagnation in recent studies. This work explores a new solution path of data-driven 3D simulation, called Stable-Sim2Real, based on a novel two-stage depth diffusion model. The initial stage finetunes Stable-Diffusion to generate the residual between the real and synthetic paired depth, producing a stable but coarse depth, where some local regions may deviate from realistic patterns. To enhance this, both the synthetic and initial output depth are fed into a second-stage diffusion, where diffusion loss is adjusted to prioritize these distinct areas identified by a 3D discriminator. We provide a new benchmark scheme to evaluate 3D data simulation methods. Extensive experiments show that training the network with the 3D simulated data derived from our method significantly enhances performance in real-world 3D visual tasks. Moreover, the evaluation demonstrates the high similarity between our 3D simulated data and real-captured patterns. Project page: https://mutianxu.github.io/stable-sim2real/.