Daily Papers

We study the problem of robustly learning Gaussian Single Index Models (SIMs) in the presence of heavy-tailed noise and a constant fraction of adversarially corrupted covariates and responses. Prior work on robust recovery has considered settings such as linear regression (Pensia et al., JASA 2024), strictly monotonic link functions (Awasthi et al., NeurIPS 2022), and phase retrieval (Buna and Rebeschini, AISTATS 2025). However, these techniques do not extend to generic asymmetric non-monotonic link functions such as GeLU and Swish, which arise naturally as scalar primitives in modern gated neural architectures. We close this gap by giving the first robust recovery algorithm with near-linear sample and time complexity for generic non-monotonic link functions, thereby establishing the first robust recovery guarantees for a broad family of nonlinear SIMs for which no guarantees were previously known. Our central contribution is a new structural understanding of the Gaussian squared-loss landscape under adversarial contamination. Crucially, we prove that for a broad class of nonlinear non-monotonic SIMs, a dimension-independent, constant-radius convex basin exists around the ground truth and is efficiently reachable via robust spectral initialization even under adversarial contamination. Prior works fail to establish both guarantees simultaneously, thereby either breaking down under adversarial contamination or failing to handle generic non-monotonic link functions. Together, these structural insights yield a principled warm start for robust gradient descent that provably converges to a final estimation error of O(σsqrtε) in O(nd) time with O(d) samples, where ε is the contamination fraction.

Understanding when learning is statistically possible yet computationally hard is a central challenge in high-dimensional statistics. In this work, we investigate this question in the context of single- and multi-index models, classes of functions widely studied as benchmarks to probe the ability of machine learning methods to discover features in high-dimensional data. Our main contribution is to show that a Noise Sensitivity Exponent (NSE) - a simple quantity determined by the activation function - governs the existence and magnitude of statistical-to-computational gaps within a broad regime of these models. We first establish that, in single-index models with large additive noise, the onset of a computational bottleneck is fully characterized by the NSE. We then demonstrate that the same exponent controls a statistical-computational gap in the specialization transition of large separable multi-index models, where individual components become learnable. Finally, in hierarchical multi-index models, we show that the NSE governs the optimal computational rate in which different directions are sequentially learned. Taken together, our results identify the NSE as a unifying property linking noise robustness, computational hardness, and feature specialization in high-dimensional learning.

Few neural architectures lend themselves to provable learning with gradient based methods. One popular model is the single-index model, in which labels are produced by composing an unknown linear projection with a possibly unknown scalar link function. Learning this model with SGD is relatively well-understood, whereby the so-called information exponent of the link function governs a polynomial sample complexity rate. However, extending this analysis to deeper or more complicated architectures remains challenging. In this work, we consider single index learning in the setting of symmetric neural networks. Under analytic assumptions on the activation and maximum degree assumptions on the link function, we prove that gradient flow recovers the hidden planted direction, represented as a finitely supported vector in the feature space of power sum polynomials. We characterize a notion of information exponent adapted to our setting that controls the efficiency of learning.

It is folklore that reusing training data more than once can improve the statistical efficiency of gradient-based learning. While this phenomenon has been extensively studied in linear regression, the benefit of multi-pass gradient descent (GD, which reuses all the data) over one-pass stochastic gradient descent (online SGD, which uses each data point only once) is not well-understood in nonlinear and non-convex settings, except for a loss modification mechanism achieved by the first two passes on the data. In this work, we consider learning a d-dimensional single-index model with a quadratic activation, for which it is known that one-pass SGD requires ngtrsim dlog d samples to achieve weak recovery. We first show that this log d factor in the sample complexity persists for full-batch spherical GD on the correlation loss; however, by simply truncating the activation, full-batch GD exhibits a favorable optimization landscape at n simeq d samples, thereby outperforming one-pass SGD (with the same activation) in statistical efficiency. We complement this result with a trajectory analysis of full-batch GD on the squared loss from small initialization, showing that n gtrsim d samples and T gtrsimlog d gradient steps suffice to achieve strong (exact) recovery.

We study the problem of learning hierarchical polynomials over the standard Gaussian distribution with three-layer neural networks. We specifically consider target functions of the form h = g circ p where p : R^d rightarrow R is a degree k polynomial and g: R rightarrow R is a degree q polynomial. This function class generalizes the single-index model, which corresponds to k=1, and is a natural class of functions possessing an underlying hierarchical structure. Our main result shows that for a large subclass of degree k polynomials p, a three-layer neural network trained via layerwise gradient descent on the square loss learns the target h up to vanishing test error in mathcal{O}(d^k) samples and polynomial time. This is a strict improvement over kernel methods, which require widetilde Theta(d^{kq}) samples, as well as existing guarantees for two-layer networks, which require the target function to be low-rank. Our result also generalizes prior works on three-layer neural networks, which were restricted to the case of p being a quadratic. When p is indeed a quadratic, we achieve the information-theoretically optimal sample complexity mathcal{O}(d^2), which is an improvement over prior work~nichani2023provable requiring a sample size of widetildeTheta(d^4). Our proof proceeds by showing that during the initial stage of training the network performs feature learning to recover the feature p with mathcal{O}(d^k) samples. This work demonstrates the ability of three-layer neural networks to learn complex features and as a result, learn a broad class of hierarchical functions.

Significant recent work has studied the ability of gradient descent to recover a hidden planted direction θ^star in S^{d-1} in different high-dimensional settings, including tensor PCA and single-index models. The key quantity that governs the ability of gradient descent to traverse these landscapes is the information exponent k^star (Ben Arous et al., (2021)), which corresponds to the order of the saddle at initialization in the population landscape. Ben Arous et al., (2021) showed that n gtrsim d^{max(1, k^star-1)} samples were necessary and sufficient for online SGD to recover θ^star, and Ben Arous et al., (2020) proved a similar lower bound for Langevin dynamics. More recently, Damian et al., (2023) showed it was possible to circumvent these lower bounds by running gradient descent on a smoothed landscape, and that this algorithm succeeds with n gtrsim d^{max(1, k^star/2)} samples, which is optimal in the worst case. This raises the question of whether it is possible to achieve the same rate without explicit smoothing. In this paper, we show that Langevin dynamics can succeed with n gtrsim d^{ k^star/2 } samples if one considers the average iterate, rather than the last iterate. The key idea is that the combination of noise-injection and iterate averaging is able to emulate the effect of landscape smoothing. We apply this result to both the tensor PCA and single-index model settings. Finally, we conjecture that minibatch SGD can also achieve the same rate without adding any additional noise.

In this manuscript we consider the problem of generalized linear estimation on Gaussian mixture data with labels given by a single-index model. Our first result is a sharp asymptotic expression for the test and training errors in the high-dimensional regime. Motivated by the recent stream of results on the Gaussian universality of the test and training errors in generalized linear estimation, we ask ourselves the question: "when is a single Gaussian enough to characterize the error?". Our formula allow us to give sharp answers to this question, both in the positive and negative directions. More precisely, we show that the sufficient conditions for Gaussian universality (or lack of thereof) crucially depend on the alignment between the target weights and the means and covariances of the mixture clusters, which we precisely quantify. In the particular case of least-squares interpolation, we prove a strong universality property of the training error, and show it follows a simple, closed-form expression. Finally, we apply our results to real datasets, clarifying some recent discussion in the literature about Gaussian universality of the errors in this context.

Mixture of Experts (MoE), an ensemble of specialized models equipped with a router that dynamically distributes each input to appropriate experts, has achieved successful results in the field of machine learning. However, theoretical understanding of this architecture is falling behind due to its inherent complexity. In this paper, we theoretically study the sample and runtime complexity of MoE following the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) when learning a regression task with an underlying cluster structure of single index models. On the one hand, we prove that a vanilla neural network fails in detecting such a latent organization as it can only process the problem as a whole. This is intrinsically related to the concept of information exponent which is low for each cluster, but increases when we consider the entire task. On the other hand, we show that a MoE succeeds in dividing this problem into easier subproblems by leveraging the ability of each expert to weakly recover the simpler function corresponding to an individual cluster. To the best of our knowledge, this work is among the first to explore the benefits of the MoE framework by examining its SGD dynamics in the context of nonlinear regression.

For fair academic recruitment at universities and research institutions, determination of the right measure based on globally accepted academic quality features is a highly delicate, challenging, but quite important problem to be addressed. In a series of two papers, we consider the modeling part for academic quality quantification in the first paper, in this paper, and the case studies part in the second paper. For academic quality quantification modeling, we develop two computational frameworks which can be used to construct a decision-support tool: (i) an optimization-based framework and (ii) a Siamese network (a type of artificial neural network)-based framework. The output of both models is a single index called Academic Quality Index (AQI) which is a measure of the overall academic quality. The data of academics from first-class and average-class world universities, based on Times Higher Education World University Rankings and QS World University Rankings, are assumed as the reference data for tuning model parameters.

Recommendation foundation model utilizes large language models (LLM) for recommendation by converting recommendation tasks into natural language tasks. It enables generative recommendation which directly generates the item(s) to recommend rather than calculating a ranking score for each and every candidate item in traditional recommendation models, simplifying the recommendation pipeline from multi-stage filtering to single-stage filtering. To avoid generating excessively long text and hallucinated recommendation when deciding which item(s) to recommend, creating LLM-compatible item IDs to uniquely identify each item is essential for recommendation foundation models. In this study, we systematically examine the item indexing problem for recommendation foundation models, using P5 as an example of backbone model. To emphasize the importance of item indexing, we first discuss the issues of several trivial item indexing methods, such as independent indexing, title indexing, and random indexing. We then propose four simple yet effective solutions, including sequential indexing, collaborative indexing, semantic (content-based) indexing, and hybrid indexing. Our study highlights the significant influence of item indexing methods on the performance of LLM-based recommendation, and our results on real-world datasets validate the effectiveness of our proposed solutions. The research also demonstrates how recent advances on language modeling and traditional IR principles such as indexing can help each other for better learning and inference.

Recently, a new paradigm called Differentiable Search Index (DSI) has been proposed for document retrieval, wherein a sequence-to-sequence model is learned to directly map queries to relevant document identifiers. The key idea behind DSI is to fully parameterize traditional ``index-retrieve'' pipelines within a single neural model, by encoding all documents in the corpus into the model parameters. In essence, DSI needs to resolve two major questions: (1) how to assign an identifier to each document, and (2) how to learn the associations between a document and its identifier. In this work, we propose a Semantic-Enhanced DSI model (SE-DSI) motivated by Learning Strategies in the area of Cognitive Psychology. Our approach advances original DSI in two ways: (1) For the document identifier, we take inspiration from Elaboration Strategies in human learning. Specifically, we assign each document an Elaborative Description based on the query generation technique, which is more meaningful than a string of integers in the original DSI; and (2) For the associations between a document and its identifier, we take inspiration from Rehearsal Strategies in human learning. Specifically, we select fine-grained semantic features from a document as Rehearsal Contents to improve document memorization. Both the offline and online experiments show improved retrieval performance over prevailing baselines.

Existing open-domain question answering (QA) models are not suitable for real-time usage because they need to process several long documents on-demand for every input query. In this paper, we introduce the query-agnostic indexable representation of document phrases that can drastically speed up open-domain QA and also allows us to reach long-tail targets. In particular, our dense-sparse phrase encoding effectively captures syntactic, semantic, and lexical information of the phrases and eliminates the pipeline filtering of context documents. Leveraging optimization strategies, our model can be trained in a single 4-GPU server and serve entire Wikipedia (up to 60 billion phrases) under 2TB with CPUs only. Our experiments on SQuAD-Open show that our model is more accurate than DrQA (Chen et al., 2017) with 6000x reduced computational cost, which translates into at least 58x faster end-to-end inference benchmark on CPUs.

The Differentiable Search Index (DSI) is an emerging paradigm for information retrieval. Unlike traditional retrieval architectures where index and retrieval are two different and separate components, DSI uses a single transformer model to perform both indexing and retrieval. In this paper, we identify and tackle an important issue of current DSI models: the data distribution mismatch that occurs between the DSI indexing and retrieval processes. Specifically, we argue that, at indexing, current DSI methods learn to build connections between the text of long documents and the identifier of the documents, but then retrieval of document identifiers is based on queries that are commonly much shorter than the indexed documents. This problem is further exacerbated when using DSI for cross-lingual retrieval, where document text and query text are in different languages. To address this fundamental problem of current DSI models, we propose a simple yet effective indexing framework for DSI, called DSI-QG. When indexing, DSI-QG represents documents with a number of potentially relevant queries generated by a query generation model and re-ranked and filtered by a cross-encoder ranker. The presence of these queries at indexing allows the DSI models to connect a document identifier to a set of queries, hence mitigating data distribution mismatches present between the indexing and the retrieval phases. Empirical results on popular mono-lingual and cross-lingual passage retrieval datasets show that DSI-QG significantly outperforms the original DSI model.

In this paper, we demonstrate that information retrieval can be accomplished with a single Transformer, in which all information about the corpus is encoded in the parameters of the model. To this end, we introduce the Differentiable Search Index (DSI), a new paradigm that learns a text-to-text model that maps string queries directly to relevant docids; in other words, a DSI model answers queries directly using only its parameters, dramatically simplifying the whole retrieval process. We study variations in how documents and their identifiers are represented, variations in training procedures, and the interplay between models and corpus sizes. Experiments demonstrate that given appropriate design choices, DSI significantly outperforms strong baselines such as dual encoder models. Moreover, DSI demonstrates strong generalization capabilities, outperforming a BM25 baseline in a zero-shot setup.

Popularized by the Differentiable Search Index, the emerging paradigm of generative retrieval re-frames the classic information retrieval problem into a sequence-to-sequence modeling task, forgoing external indices and encoding an entire document corpus within a single Transformer. Although many different approaches have been proposed to improve the effectiveness of generative retrieval, they have only been evaluated on document corpora on the order of 100k in size. We conduct the first empirical study of generative retrieval techniques across various corpus scales, ultimately scaling up to the entire MS MARCO passage ranking task with a corpus of 8.8M passages and evaluating model sizes up to 11B parameters. We uncover several findings about scaling generative retrieval to millions of passages; notably, the central importance of using synthetic queries as document representations during indexing, the ineffectiveness of existing proposed architecture modifications when accounting for compute cost, and the limits of naively scaling model parameters with respect to retrieval performance. While we find that generative retrieval is competitive with state-of-the-art dual encoders on small corpora, scaling to millions of passages remains an important and unsolved challenge. We believe these findings will be valuable for the community to clarify the current state of generative retrieval, highlight the unique challenges, and inspire new research directions.

Indexes are models: a B-Tree-Index can be seen as a model to map a key to the position of a record within a sorted array, a Hash-Index as a model to map a key to a position of a record within an unsorted array, and a BitMap-Index as a model to indicate if a data record exists or not. In this exploratory research paper, we start from this premise and posit that all existing index structures can be replaced with other types of models, including deep-learning models, which we term learned indexes. The key idea is that a model can learn the sort order or structure of lookup keys and use this signal to effectively predict the position or existence of records. We theoretically analyze under which conditions learned indexes outperform traditional index structures and describe the main challenges in designing learned index structures. Our initial results show, that by using neural nets we are able to outperform cache-optimized B-Trees by up to 70% in speed while saving an order-of-magnitude in memory over several real-world data sets. More importantly though, we believe that the idea of replacing core components of a data management system through learned models has far reaching implications for future systems designs and that this work just provides a glimpse of what might be possible.

While world models have emerged as a cornerstone of embodied intelligence by enabling agents to reason about environmental dynamics through action-conditioned prediction, their evaluation remains fragmented. Current evaluation of embodied world models has largely focused on perceptual fidelity (e.g., video generation quality), overlooking the functional utility of these models in downstream decision-making tasks. In this work, we introduce WorldArena, a unified benchmark designed to systematically evaluate embodied world models across both perceptual and functional dimensions. WorldArena assesses models through three dimensions: video perception quality, measured with 16 metrics across six sub-dimensions; embodied task functionality, which evaluates world models as data engines, policy evaluators, and action planners integrating with subjective human evaluation. Furthermore, we propose EWMScore, a holistic metric integrating multi-dimensional performance into a single interpretable index. Through extensive experiments on 14 representative models, we reveal a significant perception-functionality gap, showing that high visual quality does not necessarily translate into strong embodied task capability. WorldArena benchmark with the public leaderboard is released at https://world-arena.ai, providing a framework for tracking progress toward truly functional world models in embodied AI.

Language models are trained mainly on massive text data from the Internet, and it becomes increasingly important to understand this data source. Exact-match search engines enable searching in large text corpora -- counting string appearances and retrieving the enclosing documents -- yet the high storage overhead hinders their application on Internet-scale data. We present Infini-gram mini, an efficient and scalable system that can make petabyte-level text corpora searchable. Based on the FM-index data structure (Ferragina and Manzini, 2000), which simultaneously indexes and compresses text, our system creates indexes with size only 44% of the corpus. Infini-gram mini greatly improves upon the best existing implementation of FM-index in terms of indexing speed (18times) and memory use during both indexing (3.2times reduction) and querying (down to a negligible amount). We index 46TB of Internet text in 50 days with a single 128-core CPU node (or 19 hours if using 75 such nodes). We show one important use case of Infini-gram mini in a large-scale analysis of benchmark contamination. We find several core LM evaluation benchmarks to be heavily contaminated in Internet crawls (up to 40% in SQuAD), which could lead to overestimating the capabilities of language models if trained on such data. We host a benchmark contamination bulletin to share the contamination rate of many core and community-contributed benchmarks. We also release a web interface and an API endpoint to serve general search queries on Infini-gram mini indexes.

Recently bipartite graphs have been widely used to represent the relationship two sets of items for information retrieval applications. The Web offers a wide range of data which can be represented by bipartite graphs, such us movies and reviewers in recomender systems, queries and URLs in search engines, users and posts in social networks. The size and the dynamic nature of such graphs generate the need for more efficient ranking methods. In this thesis, at first we present the fundamental mathematical backround that we use subsequently and we describe the basic principles of the Perron-Frobebius theory for non negative matrices as well as the the basic principles of the Markov chain theory. Then, we propose a novel algorithm named BipartiteRank, which is suitable to rank scenarios, that can be represented as a bipartite graph. This algorithm is based on the random surfer model and inherits the basic mathematical characteristics of PageRank. What makes it different, is the fact that it introduces an alternative type of teleportation, based on the block structure of the bipartite graph in order to achieve more efficient ranking. Finally, we support this opinion with mathematical arguments and then we confirm it experimentally through a series of tests on real data.

Identifying low-dimensional latent structures within high-dimensional data has long been a central topic in the machine learning community, driven by the need for data compression, storage, transmission, and deeper data understanding. Traditional methods, such as principal component analysis (PCA) and autoencoders (AE), operate in an unsupervised manner, ignoring label information even when it is available. In this work, we introduce a unified method capable of learning latent spaces in both unsupervised and supervised settings. We formulate the problem as a nonlinear multiple-response regression within an index model context. By applying the generalized Stein's lemma, the latent space can be estimated without knowing the nonlinear link functions. Our method can be viewed as a nonlinear generalization of PCA. Moreover, unlike AE and other neural network methods that operate as "black boxes", our approach not only offers better interpretability but also reduces computational complexity while providing strong theoretical guarantees. Comprehensive numerical experiments and real data analyses demonstrate the superior performance of our method.

Autonomous embedded nodes deployed in connectivity-denied environments - remote forest perimeters, farm boundaries, and cargo in transit across highways or open ocean - share a common set of engineering requirements that are usually addressed by separate, purpose-built systems: passive-infrared (PIR) triggered wake-up, inertial-measurement-unit (IMU) driven active stabilization, and long-range communication under strict power budgets. This paper argues that a perimeter/wildlife security turret and a high-value cargo protection crate are, from a systems perspective, two parametrizations of the same generalized node architecture rather than two unrelated designs. We formalize this generalized architecture, extend it with three sensing/communication modalities not present in either original design - single-point LiDAR ranging, a LoRa/LoRaWAN regional mesh tier, and a satellite short-burst-data (SBD) global tier - and couple the resulting telemetry to a Geographic Information System (GIS) layer via a proposed Composite Risk Index (CRI) that fuses breach events, impact severity, and connectivity state into a single spatially-referenced score. We present the sensor-fusion, proportional-integral-derivative (PID) stabilization, link-budget, received-signal-strength-indicator (RSSI) localization, and CRI formulations that unify the two deployment modes, provide a simulated closed-loop stabilization response and a tiered-communication trade-off analysis, and instantiate the two original projects as case studies of the generalized architecture. The framework is intended as an engineering blueprint and a starting point for field validation rather than as a report of field-tested results.

Transformers excel at in-context retrieval but suffer from quadratic complexity with sequence length, while State Space Models (SSMs) offer efficient linear-time processing but have limited retrieval capabilities. We investigate whether hybrid architectures combining Transformers and SSMs can achieve the best of both worlds on two synthetic in-context retrieval tasks. The first task, n-gram retrieval, requires the model to identify and reproduce an n-gram that succeeds the query within the input sequence. The second task, position retrieval, presents the model with a single query token and requires it to perform a two-hop associative lookup: first locating the corresponding element in the sequence, and then outputting its positional index. Under controlled experimental conditions, we assess data efficiency, length generalization, robustness to out of domain training examples, and learned representations across Transformers, SSMs, and hybrid architectures. We find that hybrid models outperform SSMs and match or exceed Transformers in data efficiency and extrapolation for information-dense context retrieval. However, Transformers maintain superiority in position retrieval tasks. Through representation analysis, we discover that SSM-based models develop locality-aware embeddings where tokens representing adjacent positions become neighbors in embedding space, forming interpretable structures. This emergent property, absent in Transformers, explains both the strengths and limitations of SSMs and hybrids for different retrieval tasks. Our findings provide principled guidance for architecture selection based on task requirements and reveal fundamental differences in how Transformers and SSMs, and hybrid models learn positional associations.

Retrievers, which form one of the most important recommendation stages, are responsible for efficiently selecting possible positive samples to the later stages under strict latency limitations. Because of this, large-scale systems always rely on approximate calculations and indexes to roughly shrink candidate scale, with a simple ranking model. Considering simple models lack the ability to produce precise predictions, most of the existing methods mainly focus on incorporating complicated ranking models. However, another fundamental problem of index effectiveness remains unresolved, which also bottlenecks complication. In this paper, we propose a novel index structure: streaming Vector Quantization model, as a new generation of retrieval paradigm. Streaming VQ attaches items with indexes in real time, granting it immediacy. Moreover, through meticulous verification of possible variants, it achieves additional benefits like index balancing and reparability, enabling it to support complicated ranking models as existing approaches. As a lightweight and implementation-friendly architecture, streaming VQ has been deployed and replaced all major retrievers in Douyin and Douyin Lite, resulting in remarkable user engagement gain.

The number of publicly available models is rapidly increasing, yet most remain undocumented. Users looking for suitable models for their tasks must first determine what each model does. Training machine learning models to infer missing documentation directly from model weights is challenging, as these weights often contain significant variation unrelated to model functionality (denoted nuisance). Here, we identify a key property of real-world models: most public models belong to a small set of Model Trees, where all models within a tree are fine-tuned from a common ancestor (e.g., a foundation model). Importantly, we find that within each tree there is less nuisance variation between models. Concretely, while learning across Model Trees requires complex architectures, even a linear classifier trained on a single model layer often works within trees. While effective, these linear classifiers are computationally expensive, especially when dealing with larger models that have many parameters. To address this, we introduce Probing Experts (ProbeX), a theoretically motivated and lightweight method. Notably, ProbeX is the first probing method specifically designed to learn from the weights of a single hidden model layer. We demonstrate the effectiveness of ProbeX by predicting the categories in a model's training dataset based only on its weights. Excitingly, ProbeX can map the weights of Stable Diffusion into a weight-language embedding space, enabling model search via text, i.e., zero-shot model classification.

Approximate nearest neighbor search (ANNS) is a fundamental building block in information retrieval with graph-based indices being the current state-of-the-art and widely used in the industry. Recent advances in graph-based indices have made it possible to index and search billion-point datasets with high recall and millisecond-level latency on a single commodity machine with an SSD. However, existing graph algorithms for ANNS support only static indices that cannot reflect real-time changes to the corpus required by many key real-world scenarios (e.g. index of sentences in documents, email, or a news index). To overcome this drawback, the current industry practice for manifesting updates into such indices is to periodically re-build these indices, which can be prohibitively expensive. In this paper, we present the first graph-based ANNS index that reflects corpus updates into the index in real-time without compromising on search performance. Using update rules for this index, we design FreshDiskANN, a system that can index over a billion points on a workstation with an SSD and limited memory, and support thousands of concurrent real-time inserts, deletes and searches per second each, while retaining >95% 5-recall@5. This represents a 5-10x reduction in the cost of maintaining freshness in indices when compared to existing methods.

This paper presents a Bayesian nonparametric latent feature model specially suitable for exploratory analysis of high-dimensional count data. We perform a non-negative doubly sparse matrix factorization that has two main advantages: not only we are able to better approximate the row input distributions, but the inferred topics are also easier to interpret. By combining the three-parameter and restricted Indian buffet processes into a single prior, we increase the model flexibility, allowing for a full spectrum of sparse solutions in the latent space. We demonstrate the usefulness of our approach in the analysis of countries' economic structure. Compared to other approaches, empirical results show our model's ability to give easy-to-interpret information and better capture the underlying sparsity structure of data.

The intricate dynamics of stock markets have led to extensive research on models that are able to effectively explain their inherent complexities. This study leverages the econometrics literature to explore the dynamic factor model as an interpretable model with sufficient predictive capabilities for capturing essential market phenomena. Although the model has been extensively applied for predictive purposes, this study focuses on analyzing the extracted loadings and common factors as an alternative framework for understanding stock price dynamics. The results reveal novel insights into traditional market theories when applied to the Philippine Stock Exchange using the Kalman method and maximum likelihood estimation, with subsequent validation against the capital asset pricing model. Notably, a one-factor model extracts a common factor representing systematic or market dynamics similar to the composite index, whereas a two-factor model extracts common factors representing market trends and volatility. Furthermore, an application of the model for nowcasting the growth rates of the Philippine gross domestic product highlights the potential of the extracted common factors as viable real-time market indicators, yielding over a 34% decrease in the out-of-sample prediction error. Overall, the results underscore the value of dynamic factor analysis in gaining a deeper understanding of market price movement dynamics.

In any ranking system, the retrieval model outputs a single score for a document based on its belief on how relevant it is to a given search query. While retrieval models have continued to improve with the introduction of increasingly complex architectures, few works have investigated a retrieval model's belief in the score beyond the scope of a single value. We argue that capturing the model's uncertainty with respect to its own scoring of a document is a critical aspect of retrieval that allows for greater use of current models across new document distributions, collections, or even improving effectiveness for down-stream tasks. In this paper, we address this problem via an efficient Bayesian framework for retrieval models which captures the model's belief in the relevance score through a stochastic process while adding only negligible computational overhead. We evaluate this belief via a ranking based calibration metric showing that our approximate Bayesian framework significantly improves a retrieval model's ranking effectiveness through a risk aware reranking as well as its confidence calibration. Lastly, we demonstrate that this additional uncertainty information is actionable and reliable on down-stream tasks represented via cutoff prediction.

We study the ranking of individuals, teams, or objects, based on pairwise comparisons between them, using the Bradley-Terry model. Estimates of rankings within this model are commonly made using a simple iterative algorithm first introduced by Zermelo almost a century ago. Here we describe an alternative and similarly simple iteration that provably returns identical results but does so much faster -- over a hundred times faster in some cases. We demonstrate this algorithm with applications to a range of example data sets and derive a number of results regarding its convergence.

Scoring systems are linear classification models that only require users to add, subtract and multiply a few small numbers in order to make a prediction. These models are in widespread use by the medical community, but are difficult to learn from data because they need to be accurate and sparse, have coprime integer coefficients, and satisfy multiple operational constraints. We present a new method for creating data-driven scoring systems called a Supersparse Linear Integer Model (SLIM). SLIM scoring systems are built by solving an integer program that directly encodes measures of accuracy (the 0-1 loss) and sparsity (the ell_0-seminorm) while restricting coefficients to coprime integers. SLIM can seamlessly incorporate a wide range of operational constraints related to accuracy and sparsity, and can produce highly tailored models without parameter tuning. We provide bounds on the testing and training accuracy of SLIM scoring systems, and present a new data reduction technique that can improve scalability by eliminating a portion of the training data beforehand. Our paper includes results from a collaboration with the Massachusetts General Hospital Sleep Laboratory, where SLIM was used to create a highly tailored scoring system for sleep apnea screening

Many recent efforts augment language models with retrieval, by adding retrieved data to the input context. For this approach to succeed, the retrieved data must be added at both training and test time. Moreover, as input length grows linearly with the size of retrieved data, cost in computation and memory grows quadratically for modern Transformers. To avoid these complications, we simply fine-tune the model on retrieved data at test time, using its standard training setup. We build a large-scale distributed index based on text embeddings of the Pile dataset. For each test input, our system retrieves its neighbors and fine-tunes the model on their text. Surprisingly, retrieving and training on as few as 20 neighbors, each for only one gradient iteration, drastically improves performance across more than 20 language modeling tasks in the Pile. For example, test-time training with nearest neighbors significantly narrows the performance gap between a small GPT-2 and a GPT-Neo model more than 10 times larger. Sufficient index quality and size, however, are necessary. Our work establishes a first baseline of test-time training for language modeling.

Because large language models are expensive to pretrain on different datasets, using smaller-scale experiments to decide on data is crucial for reducing costs. Which benchmarks and methods of making decisions from observed performance at small scale most accurately predict the datasets that yield the best large models? To empower open exploration of this question, we release models, data, and evaluations in DataDecide -- the most extensive open suite of models over differences in data and scale. We conduct controlled pretraining experiments across 25 corpora with differing sources, deduplication, and filtering up to 100B tokens, model sizes up to 1B parameters, and 3 random seeds. We find that the ranking of models at a single, small size (e.g., 150M parameters) is a strong baseline for predicting best models at our larger target scale (1B) (~80% of com parisons correct). No scaling law methods among 8 baselines exceed the compute-decision frontier of single-scale predictions, but DataDecide can measure improvement in future scaling laws. We also identify that using continuous likelihood metrics as proxies in small experiments makes benchmarks including MMLU, ARC, HellaSwag, MBPP, and HumanEval >80% predictable at the target 1B scale with just 0.01% of the compute.

As the open-weight AI landscape continues to proliferate-with model development, significant investment, and user interest-it becomes increasingly important to predict which models will ultimately drive innovation and shape AI ecosystems. Building on parallels with citation dynamics in scientific literature, we propose a framework to quantify how an open-weight model's influence evolves. Specifically, we adapt the model introduced by Wang et al. for scientific citations, using three key parameters-immediacy, longevity, and relative fitness-to track the cumulative number of fine-tuned models of an open-weight model. Our findings reveal that this citation-style approach can effectively capture the diverse trajectories of open-weight model adoption, with most models fitting well and outliers indicating unique patterns or abrupt jumps in usage.

Test-time scaling evaluates reasoning LLMs by sampling multiple outputs per prompt, but ranking models in this regime remains underexplored. We formalize dense benchmark ranking under test-time scaling and introduce Scorio, a library that implements statistical ranking methods such as paired-comparison models, item response theory (IRT) models, voting rules, and graph- and spectral-based methods. Across 20 reasoning models on four Olympiad-style math benchmarks (AIME'24, AIME'25, HMMT'25, and BrUMO'25; up to N=80 trials), most full-trial rankings agree closely with the Bayesian gold standard Bayes_{U}@80 (mean Kendall's τ_b = 0.93--0.95), and 19--34 methods recover exactly the same ordering. In the single-trial regime, the best methods reach τ_b approx 0.86. Using greedy decoding as an empirical prior (Bayes_{R_0}@N) reduces variance at N=1 by 16--52%, but can bias rankings when greedy and stochastic sampling disagree. These results identify reliable ranking methods for both high- and low-budget test-time scaling. We release Scorio as an open-source library at https://github.com/mohsenhariri/scorio.

We present AutoIndex, a framework for learning representation programs: executable transformations that map raw documents into the representations exposed to a retrieval system. Rather than tuning retrievers, rerankers, or a small set of preprocessing hyperparameters, AutoIndex searches over programs that slice, enrich, normalize, reweight, or reorganize documents before indexing. At each iteration, AutoIndex performs validation-guided program search, in which agents diagnose failures of the current program and synthesize candidate updates, retaining only updates that improve retrieval quality under the resulting index. We evaluate AutoIndex on CRUMB, a benchmark of heterogeneous retrieval tasks, with BM25 held fixed across all experiments. The learned programs improve recall over a static full-document BM25 baseline on all 8 tasks, with average gains of +8.4% in Recall@100 and +8.3% in nDCG@10, and largest gains of +30.5% in Recall@100 and +43.6% in nDCG@10. These results suggest that document representation should not be treated as a fixed preprocessing choice made before retrieval begins, but as an explicit optimization target. Code to reproduce our results is available at https://github.com/auto-index/autoindex.

This paper models the availability of bikes at San Francisco Bay Area Bike Share stations using machine learning algorithms. Random Forest (RF) and Least-Squares Boosting (LSBoost) were used as univariate regression algorithms, and Partial Least-Squares Regression (PLSR) was applied as a multivariate regression algorithm. The univariate models were used to model the number of available bikes at each station. PLSR was applied to reduce the number of required prediction models and reflect the spatial correlation between stations in the network. Results clearly show that univariate models have lower error predictions than the multivariate model. However, the multivariate model results are reasonable for networks with a relatively large number of spatially correlated stations. Results also show that station neighbors and the prediction horizon time are significant predictors. The most effective prediction horizon time that produced the least prediction error was 15 minutes.

Is bigger always better for time series foundation models? With the question in mind, we explore an alternative to training a single, large monolithic model: building a portfolio of smaller, pretrained forecasting models. By applying ensembling or model selection over these portfolios, we achieve competitive performance on large-scale benchmarks using much fewer parameters. We explore strategies for designing such portfolios and find that collections of specialist models consistently outperform portfolios of independently trained generalists. Remarkably, we demonstrate that post-training a base model is a compute-effective approach for creating sufficiently diverse specialists, and provide evidences that ensembling and model selection are more compute-efficient than test-time fine-tuning.

Traditional e-commerce search systems employ multi-stage cascading architectures (MCA) that progressively filter items through recall, pre-ranking, and ranking stages. While effective at balancing computational efficiency with business conversion, these systems suffer from fragmented computation and optimization objective collisions across stages, which ultimately limit their performance ceiling. To address these, we propose OneSearch, the first industrial-deployed end-to-end generative framework for e-commerce search. This framework introduces three key innovations: (1) a Keyword-enhanced Hierarchical Quantization Encoding (KHQE) module, to preserve both hierarchical semantics and distinctive item attributes while maintaining strong query-item relevance constraints; (2) a multi-view user behavior sequence injection strategy that constructs behavior-driven user IDs and incorporates both explicit short-term and implicit long-term sequences to model user preferences comprehensively; and (3) a Preference-Aware Reward System (PARS) featuring multi-stage supervised fine-tuning and adaptive reward-weighted ranking to capture fine-grained user preferences. Extensive offline evaluations on large-scale industry datasets demonstrate OneSearch's superior performance for high-quality recall and ranking. The rigorous online A/B tests confirm its ability to enhance relevance in the same exposure position, achieving statistically significant improvements: +1.67% item CTR, +2.40% buyer, and +3.22% order volume. Furthermore, OneSearch reduces operational expenditure by 75.40% and improves Model FLOPs Utilization from 3.26% to 27.32%. The system has been successfully deployed across multiple search scenarios in Kuaishou, serving millions of users, generating tens of millions of PVs daily.

We propose a design pattern for tackling text ranking problems, dubbed "Expando-Mono-Duo", that has been empirically validated for a number of ad hoc retrieval tasks in different domains. At the core, our design relies on pretrained sequence-to-sequence models within a standard multi-stage ranking architecture. "Expando" refers to the use of document expansion techniques to enrich keyword representations of texts prior to inverted indexing. "Mono" and "Duo" refer to components in a reranking pipeline based on a pointwise model and a pairwise model that rerank initial candidates retrieved using keyword search. We present experimental results from the MS MARCO passage and document ranking tasks, the TREC 2020 Deep Learning Track, and the TREC-COVID challenge that validate our design. In all these tasks, we achieve effectiveness that is at or near the state of the art, in some cases using a zero-shot approach that does not exploit any training data from the target task. To support replicability, implementations of our design pattern are open-sourced in the Pyserini IR toolkit and PyGaggle neural reranking library.

The success of deep learning is due in large part to our ability to solve certain massive non-convex optimization problems with relative ease. Though non-convex optimization is NP-hard, simple algorithms -- often variants of stochastic gradient descent -- exhibit surprising effectiveness in fitting large neural networks in practice. We argue that neural network loss landscapes often contain (nearly) a single basin after accounting for all possible permutation symmetries of hidden units a la Entezari et al. 2021. We introduce three algorithms to permute the units of one model to bring them into alignment with a reference model in order to merge the two models in weight space. This transformation produces a functionally equivalent set of weights that lie in an approximately convex basin near the reference model. Experimentally, we demonstrate the single basin phenomenon across a variety of model architectures and datasets, including the first (to our knowledge) demonstration of zero-barrier linear mode connectivity between independently trained ResNet models on CIFAR-10. Additionally, we identify intriguing phenomena relating model width and training time to mode connectivity. Finally, we discuss shortcomings of the linear mode connectivity hypothesis, including a counterexample to the single basin theory.

The paper shows that the application of the fixed-effect multiple linear regression model to an overparameterized dataset is equivalent to fitting the data with a hyper-curve parameterized by a single scalar parameter. This equivalence allows for a predictor-focused approach, where each predictor is described by a function of the chosen parameter. It is proven that a linear model will produce exact predictions even in the presence of nonlinear dependencies that violate the model assumptions. Parameterization in terms of the dependent variable and the monomial basis in the predictor function space are applied here to both synthetic and experimental data. The hyper-curve approach is especially suited for the regularization of problems with noise in predictor variables and can be used to remove noisy and "improper" predictors from the model.

Neural embedding models have become a fundamental component of modern information retrieval (IR) pipelines. These models produce a single embedding x in R^d per data-point, allowing for fast retrieval via highly optimized maximum inner product search (MIPS) algorithms. Recently, beginning with the landmark ColBERT paper, multi-vector models, which produce a set of embedding per data point, have achieved markedly superior performance for IR tasks. Unfortunately, using these models for IR is computationally expensive due to the increased complexity of multi-vector retrieval and scoring. In this paper, we introduce MUVERA (MUlti-VEctor Retrieval Algorithm), a retrieval mechanism which reduces multi-vector similarity search to single-vector similarity search. This enables the usage of off-the-shelf MIPS solvers for multi-vector retrieval. MUVERA asymmetrically generates Fixed Dimensional Encodings (FDEs) of queries and documents, which are vectors whose inner product approximates multi-vector similarity. We prove that FDEs give high-quality epsilon-approximations, thus providing the first single-vector proxy for multi-vector similarity with theoretical guarantees. Empirically, we find that FDEs achieve the same recall as prior state-of-the-art heuristics while retrieving 2-5times fewer candidates. Compared to prior state of the art implementations, MUVERA achieves consistently good end-to-end recall and latency across a diverse set of the BEIR retrieval datasets, achieving an average of 10% improved recall with 90% lower latency.

Differentiable Search Indices (DSIs) encode a corpus of documents in model parameters and use the same model to answer user queries directly. Despite the strong performance of DSI models, deploying them in situations where the corpus changes over time is computationally expensive because reindexing the corpus requires re-training the model. In this work, we introduce DSI++, a continual learning challenge for DSI to incrementally index new documents while being able to answer queries related to both previously and newly indexed documents. Across different model scales and document identifier representations, we show that continual indexing of new documents leads to considerable forgetting of previously indexed documents. We also hypothesize and verify that the model experiences forgetting events during training, leading to unstable learning. To mitigate these issues, we investigate two approaches. The first focuses on modifying the training dynamics. Flatter minima implicitly alleviate forgetting, so we optimize for flatter loss basins and show that the model stably memorizes more documents (+12%). Next, we introduce a generative memory to sample pseudo-queries for documents and supplement them during continual indexing to prevent forgetting for the retrieval task. Extensive experiments on novel continual indexing benchmarks based on Natural Questions (NQ) and MS MARCO demonstrate that our proposed solution mitigates forgetting significantly. Concretely, it improves the average Hits@10 by +21.1% over competitive baselines for NQ and requires 6 times fewer model updates compared to re-training the DSI model for incrementally indexing five corpora in a sequence.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

Computing distances and finding shortest paths in massive real-world networks is a fundamental algorithmic task in network analysis. There are two main approaches to solving this task. On one hand are traversal-based algorithms like bidirectional breadth-first search (BiBFS) with no preprocessing step and slow individual distance inquiries. On the other hand are indexing-based approaches, which maintain a large index. This allows for answering individual inquiries very fast; however, index creation is prohibitively expensive. We seek to bridge these two extremes: quickly answer distance inquiries without the need for costly preprocessing. In this work, we propose a new algorithm and data structure, WormHole, for approximate shortest path computations. WormHole leverages structural properties of social networks to build a sublinearly sized index, drawing upon the explicit core-periphery decomposition of Ben-Eliezer et al. Empirically, the preprocessing time of WormHole improves upon index-based solutions by orders of magnitude, and individual inquiries are consistently much faster than in BiBFS. The acceleration comes at the cost of a minor accuracy trade-off. Nonetheless, our empirical evidence demonstrates that WormHole accurately answers essentially all inquiries within a maximum additive error of 2. We complement these empirical results with provable theoretical guarantees, showing that WormHole requires n^{o(1)} node queries per distance inquiry in random power-law networks. In contrast, any approach without a preprocessing step requires n^{Ω(1)} queries for the same task. WormHole does not require reading the whole graph. Unlike the vast majority of index-based algorithms, it returns paths, not just distances. For faster inquiry times, it can be combined effectively with other index-based solutions, by running them only on the sublinear core.

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

The ColBERT model has recently been proposed as an effective BERT based ranker. By adopting a late interaction mechanism, a major advantage of ColBERT is that document representations can be precomputed in advance. However, the big downside of the model is the index size, which scales linearly with the number of tokens in the collection. In this paper, we study various designs for ColBERT models in order to attack this problem. While compression techniques have been explored to reduce the index size, in this paper we study token pruning techniques for ColBERT. We compare simple heuristics, as well as a single layer of attention mechanism to select the tokens to keep at indexing time. Our experiments show that ColBERT indexes can be pruned up to 30\% on the MS MARCO passage collection without a significant drop in performance. Finally, we experiment on MS MARCO documents, which reveal several challenges for such mechanism.

The study emphasizes the challenge of finding the optimal trade-off between bias and variance, especially as hyperparameter optimization increases in complexity. Through empirical analysis, three hyperparameter tuning algorithms Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE), Genetic Search, and Random Search are evaluated across regression and classification tasks. The results show that nonlinear models, with properly tuned hyperparameters, significantly outperform linear models. Interestingly, Random Search excelled in regression tasks, while TPE was more effective for classification tasks. This suggests that there is no one-size-fits-all solution, as different algorithms perform better depending on the task and model type. The findings underscore the importance of selecting the appropriate tuning method and highlight the computational challenges involved in optimizing machine learning models, particularly as search spaces expand.

Multi-vector retrieval (MVR) models, exemplified by ColBERT, have established new benchmarks in retrieval accuracy by preserving fine-grained token-level interactions. However, this granularity imposes prohibitive storage and retrieval efficiency bottlenecks: to manage the immense memory footprint and computational overhead of billion-scale token vectors, state-of-the-art systems are forced to rely on aggressive dimension reduction and complex clustering (e.g., K-means). This compromise introduces two critical limitations: excessive indexing latency of clustering large-scale corpora and semantic information loss inherent to compression. In this paper, we propose Single-stage Sparse Retrieval (SSR}, a paradigm shift that replaces expensive clustering with efficient sparse coding. Instead of compressing features into low-dimensional dense vectors, we utilize Sparse Autoencoder (SAE) to project token embeddings into a high-dimensional but highly sparse representation. This transformation enables us to bypass vector clustering entirely and leverage inverted indexing for precise, high-throughput retrieval. Extensive experiments on the BEIR benchmark demonstrate that SSR achieves a "trifecta" of improvements: it reduces indexing time by 15x compared to ColBERTv2, halves retrieval latency, and simultaneously improves retrieval performance over leading baselines.

Despite the growing interest in replicating the scaled success of large language models (LLMs) in industrial search and recommender systems, most existing industrial efforts remain limited to transplanting Transformer architectures, which bring only incremental improvements over strong Deep Learning Recommendation Models (DLRMs). From a first principle perspective, the breakthroughs of LLMs stem not only from their architectures but also from two complementary mechanisms: context engineering, which enriches raw input queries with contextual cues to better elicit model capabilities, and multi-step reasoning, which iteratively refines model outputs through intermediate reasoning paths. However, these two mechanisms and their potential to unlock substantial improvements remain largely underexplored in industrial ranking systems. In this paper, we propose OnePiece, a unified framework that seamlessly integrates LLM-style context engineering and reasoning into both retrieval and ranking models of industrial cascaded pipelines. OnePiece is built on a pure Transformer backbone and further introduces three key innovations: (1) structured context engineering, which augments interaction history with preference and scenario signals and unifies them into a structured tokenized input sequence for both retrieval and ranking; (2) block-wise latent reasoning, which equips the model with multi-step refinement of representations and scales reasoning bandwidth via block size; (3) progressive multi-task training, which leverages user feedback chains to effectively supervise reasoning steps during training. OnePiece has been deployed in the main personalized search scenario of Shopee and achieves consistent online gains across different key business metrics, including over +2% GMV/UU and a +2.90% increase in advertising revenue.

We ask whether pretrained time series foundation models (TSFMs) improve on established econometric benchmarks for forecasting realized volatility. Using the VOLARE dataset, we conduct the first systematic comparison of nine zero-shot TSFMs against eight econometric specifications, including the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) family, across 50 assets in equities, foreign exchange, and futures, and three forecast horizons, with formal pairwise and multi-model forecast-comparison tests. Foundation models do not deliver a uniform gain. Pooled losses favor them, but the advantage is concentrated in a few outlier assets; averaging each asset's loss ratio to a well-specified Log-HAR benchmark, so that no single asset dominates, only one small model, Tiny Time Mixers (TTM), beats the benchmark at every horizon, and by a narrow margin. The other foundation models do not improve on Log-HAR, and the econometric benchmarks remain competitive throughout. A Mincer--Zarnowitz recalibration, which removes level and scale bias from every forecast, shows that much of the short-horizon advantage reflects better-scaled forecasts rather than better prediction of volatility dynamics, and only at the monthly horizon does a genuine informational gain remain. Because this edge is thin and even TTM is not best on every asset, a simple equal-weight average of TTM and Log-HAR matches the best single model and enters the Model Confidence Set for 98 to 100\% of assets, more often than either component alone, so a forecaster need not identify the best model for each asset in advance. Our most durable finding is that performance varies so much across foundation-model architectures that choosing the right architecture matters more than the broader choice between foundation and econometric models.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown the potential to revolutionize natural language processing tasks in various domains, sparking great interest in vertical-specific large models. However, unlike proprietary models such as BloombergGPT and FinGPT, which have leveraged their unique data accumulations to make strides in the finance domain, there hasn't not many similar large language models in the Chinese legal domain to facilitate its digital transformation. In this paper, we propose an open-source legal large language model named ChatLaw. Due to the importance of data quality, we carefully designed a legal domain fine-tuning dataset. Additionally, to overcome the problem of model hallucinations in legal data screening during reference data retrieval, we introduce a method that combines vector database retrieval with keyword retrieval to effectively reduce the inaccuracy of relying solely on vector database retrieval. Furthermore, we propose a self-attention method to enhance the ability of large models to overcome errors present in reference data, further optimizing the issue of model hallucinations at the model level and improving the problem-solving capabilities of large models. We also open-sourced our model and part of the data at https://github.com/PKU-YuanGroup/ChatLaw.

Personalized recommendation systems shape much of user choice online, yet their targeted nature makes separating out the value of recommendation and the underlying goods challenging. We build a discrete choice model that embeds recommendation-induced utility, low-rank heterogeneity, and flexible state dependence and apply the model to viewership data at Netflix. We exploit idiosyncratic variation introduced by the recommendation algorithm to identify and separately value these components as well as to recover model-free diversion ratios that we can use to validate our structural model. We use the model to evaluate counterfactuals that quantify the incremental engagement generated by personalized recommendations. First, we show that replacing the current recommender system with a matrix factorization or popularity-based algorithm would lead to 4% and 12% reduction in engagement, respectively, and decreased consumption diversity. Second, most of the consumption increase from recommendations comes from effective targeting, not mechanical exposure, with the largest gains for mid-popularity goods (as opposed to broadly appealing or very niche goods).

Pairwise re-ranking models predict which of two documents is more relevant to a query and then aggregate a final ranking from such preferences. This is often more effective than pointwise re-ranking models that directly predict a relevance value for each document. However, the high inference overhead of pairwise models limits their practical application: usually, for a set of k documents to be re-ranked, preferences for all k^2-k comparison pairs excluding self-comparisons are aggregated. We investigate whether the efficiency of pairwise re-ranking can be improved by sampling from all pairs. In an exploratory study, we evaluate three sampling methods and five preference aggregation methods. The best combination allows for an order of magnitude fewer comparisons at an acceptable loss of retrieval effectiveness, while competitive effectiveness is already achieved with about one third of the comparisons.

Web search provides a promising way for people to obtain information and has been extensively studied. With the surgence of deep learning and large-scale pre-training techniques, various neural information retrieval models are proposed and they have demonstrated the power for improving search (especially, the ranking) quality. All these existing search methods follow a common paradigm, i.e. index-retrieve-rerank, where they first build an index of all documents based on document terms (i.e., sparse inverted index) or representation vectors (i.e., dense vector index), then retrieve and rerank retrieved documents based on similarity between the query and documents via ranking models. In this paper, we explore a new paradigm of information retrieval with neither sparse nor dense index but only a model. Specifically, we propose a pre-training model-based IR system called DynamicRetriever. As for this system, the training stage embeds the token-level and document-level information (especially, document identifiers) of the corpus into the model parameters, then the inference stage directly generates document identifiers for a given query. Compared with existing search methods, the model-based IR system has two advantages: i) it parameterizes the traditional static index with a pre-training model, which converts the document semantic mapping into a dynamic and updatable process; ii) with separate document identifiers, it captures both the term-level and document-level information for each document. Extensive experiments conducted on the public search benchmark MS MARCO verify the effectiveness and potential of our proposed new paradigm for information retrieval.

Intermittent demand forecasting poses unique challenges due to sparse observations, cold-start items, and obsolescence. Classical models such as Croston, SBA, and the Teunter-Syntetos-Babai (TSB) method provide simple heuristics but lack a principled generative foundation. Deep learning models address these limitations but often require large datasets and sacrifice interpretability. We introduce TSB-HB, a hierarchical Bayesian extension of TSB. Demand occurrence is modeled with a Beta-Binomial distribution, while nonzero demand sizes follow a Log-Normal distribution. Crucially, hierarchical priors enable partial pooling across items, stabilizing estimates for sparse or cold-start series while preserving heterogeneity. This framework yields a fully generative and interpretable model that generalizes classical exponential smoothing. On the UCI Online Retail dataset, TSB-HB achieves lower RMSE and RMSSE than Croston, SBA, TSB, ADIDA, IMAPA, ARIMA and Theta, and on a subset of the M5 dataset it outperforms all classical baselines we evaluate. The model provides calibrated probabilistic forecasts and improved accuracy on intermittent and lumpy items by combining a generative formulation with hierarchical shrinkage, while remaining interpretable and scalable.

Recent years have witnessed a surge in the number of large language models (LLMs), yet efficiently managing and utilizing these vast resources remains a significant challenge. In this work, we explore how to learn compact representations of LLM abilities that can facilitate downstream tasks, such as model routing and performance prediction on new benchmarks. We frame this problem as estimating the probability that a given model will correctly answer a specific query. Inspired by the item response theory (IRT) in psychometrics, we model this probability as a function of three key factors: (i) the model's multi-skill ability vector, (2) the query's discrimination vector that separates models of differing skills, and (3) the query's difficulty scalar. To learn these parameters jointly, we introduce a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) network that couples model- and query-level embeddings. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach leads to state-of-the-art performance in both model routing and benchmark accuracy prediction. Moreover, analysis validates that the learned parameters encode meaningful, interpretable information about model capabilities and query characteristics.

We propose Latent Terms, a method revealing that models trained for dense retrieval, whether single- or multi-vector, learn representations that can trivially be decomposed into retrieval-ready sparse features. When trained on frozen retrievers, Sparse Autoencoders without any retrieval-specific adjustments extract a latent vocabulary with approximately Zipfian collection statistics, directly suitable for classical sparse retrieval scoring via BM25. This approach enables sparse retrieval while requiring no learned expansion objective or sparse retrieval supervision whatsoever, and can be readily applied to any dense retriever. Latent Terms is able to match or outperform single-vector scoring methods from its own base model as well as comparable SPLADE variants. In addition, it substantially outperforms its base model on LIMIT, a task specifically designed to highlight the failures of single-vector retrieval. Overall, our results highlight that neural retrievers contain more expressive and indexable structure than their default scoring functions expose, but that other methods can nonetheless be leveraged.

Recent developments in representational learning for information retrieval can be organized in a conceptual framework that establishes two pairs of contrasts: sparse vs. dense representations and unsupervised vs. learned representations. Sparse learned representations can further be decomposed into expansion and term weighting components. This framework allows us to understand the relationship between recently proposed techniques such as DPR, ANCE, DeepCT, DeepImpact, and COIL, and furthermore, gaps revealed by our analysis point to "low hanging fruit" in terms of techniques that have yet to be explored. We present a novel technique dubbed "uniCOIL", a simple extension of COIL that achieves to our knowledge the current state-of-the-art in sparse retrieval on the popular MS MARCO passage ranking dataset. Our implementation using the Anserini IR toolkit is built on the Lucene search library and thus fully compatible with standard inverted indexes.

Physics education researchers (PER) often analyze student data with single-level regression models (e.g., linear and logistic regression). However, education datasets can have hierarchical structures, such as students nested within courses, that single-level models fail to account for. The improper use of single-level models to analyze hierarchical datasets can lead to biased findings. Hierarchical models (a.k.a., multi-level models) account for this hierarchical nested structure in the data. In this publication, we outline the theoretical differences between how single-level and multi-level models handle hierarchical datasets. We then present analysis of a dataset from 112 introductory physics courses using both multiple linear regression and hierarchical linear modeling to illustrate the potential impact of using an inappropriate analytical method on PER findings and implications. Research can leverage multi-institutional datasets to improve the field's understanding of how to support student success in physics. There is no post hoc fix, however, if researchers use inappropriate single-level models to analyze multi-level datasets. To continue developing reliable and generalizable knowledge, PER should use hierarchical models when analyzing hierarchical datasets. The supplemental materials include a sample dataset, R code to model the building and analysis presented in the paper, and an HTML output from the R code.

Fairness and relevance are two important aspects of recommender systems (RSs). Typically, they are evaluated either (i) separately by individual measures of fairness and relevance, or (ii) jointly using a single measure that accounts for fairness with respect to relevance. However, approach (i) often does not provide a reliable joint estimate of the goodness of the models, as it has two different best models: one for fairness and another for relevance. Approach (ii) is also problematic because these measures tend to be ad-hoc and do not relate well to traditional relevance measures, like NDCG. Motivated by this, we present a new approach for jointly evaluating fairness and relevance in RSs: Distance to Pareto Frontier (DPFR). Given some user-item interaction data, we compute their Pareto frontier for a pair of existing relevance and fairness measures, and then use the distance from the frontier as a measure of the jointly achievable fairness and relevance. Our approach is modular and intuitive as it can be computed with existing measures. Experiments with 4 RS models, 3 re-ranking strategies, and 6 datasets show that existing metrics have inconsistent associations with our Pareto-optimal solution, making DPFR a more robust and theoretically well-founded joint measure for assessing fairness and relevance. Our code: https://github.com/theresiavr/DPFR-recsys-evaluation

A key puzzle in search, ads, and recommendation is that the ranking model can only utilize a small portion of the vastly available user interaction data. As a result, increasing data volume, model size, or computation FLOPs will quickly suffer from diminishing returns. We examined this problem and found that one of the root causes may lie in the so-called ``item-centric'' formulation, which has an unbounded vocabulary and thus uncontrolled model complexity. To mitigate quality saturation, we introduce an alternative formulation named ``user-centric ranking'', which is based on a transposed view of the dyadic user-item interaction data. We show that this formulation has a promising scaling property, enabling us to train better-converged models on substantially larger data sets.

Model cards describe model behavior through a mixture of textual descriptions and structured artifacts, including performance, configuration, and dataset tables. Existing model search systems rely predominantly on semantic similarity over text, which can produce homogeneous result sets and limit exploration of alternatives. We argue that model search is inherently comparative: users want models that are task-aligned yet differentiated in measurable ways. We hypothesize that this balance requires retrieval over condensed, high-quality evidence rather than verbose descriptions, and much of that evidence is concentrated in structured tables. We present StructuredSemanticSearch, a table-driven model search framework built on the ModelTables benchmark. Given a query, StructuredSemanticSearch combines a semantic baseline for task alignment with a structure-aware pipeline that discovers query-related model-card tables using table discovery operators such as unionability, joinability, and keyword search. Retrieved tables are mapped back to model cards under a controlled top-k budget, enabling fair comparison between text-based and table-based retrieval. Beyond retrieval, StructuredSemanticSearch adapts table integration to the model-table domain through orientation-aware integration, producing compact integrated views of tables from partially overlapping and sometimes transposed evidence tables. For evaluation, we introduce a nugget-based, auditable protocol that extracts compact evidence items from model cards, matches queries to condition- or intent-specific nuggets, and measures evidence coverage and diversity over retrieved model-card candidate sets. This protocol also provides a scalable path toward approximate, evidence-based labeling in dynamic model lakes. Experiments on 597 model-recommendation queries show improved nugget coverage for the structure-aware pipeline than semantic baseline

Neural document ranking approaches, specifically transformer models, have achieved impressive gains in ranking performance. However, query processing using such over-parameterized models is both resource and time intensive. In this paper, we propose the Fast-Forward index -- a simple vector forward index that facilitates ranking documents using interpolation of lexical and semantic scores -- as a replacement for contextual re-rankers and dense indexes based on nearest neighbor search. Fast-Forward indexes rely on efficient sparse models for retrieval and merely look up pre-computed dense transformer-based vector representations of documents and passages in constant time for fast CPU-based semantic similarity computation during query processing. We propose index pruning and theoretically grounded early stopping techniques to improve the query processing throughput. We conduct extensive large-scale experiments on TREC-DL datasets and show improvements over hybrid indexes in performance and query processing efficiency using only CPUs. Fast-Forward indexes can provide superior ranking performance using interpolation due to the complementary benefits of lexical and semantic similarities.

Neural networks -- especially those that use large, pre-trained language models -- have improved search engines in various ways. Most prominently, they can estimate the relevance of a passage or document to a user's query. In this work, we depart from this direction by exploring whether neural networks can effectively predict which of a document's passages are unlikely to be relevant to any query submitted to the search engine. We refer to this query-agnostic estimation of passage relevance as a passage's quality. We find that our novel methods for estimating passage quality allow passage corpora to be pruned considerably while maintaining statistically equivalent effectiveness; our best methods can consistently prune >25% of passages in a corpora, across various retrieval pipelines. Such substantial pruning reduces the operating costs of neural search engines in terms of computing resources, power usage, and carbon footprint -- both when processing queries (thanks to a smaller index size) and when indexing (lightweight models can prune low-quality passages prior to the costly dense or learned sparse encoding step). This work sets the stage for developing more advanced neural "learning-what-to-index" methods.

The dominant retrieve-then-rank pipeline in large-scale recommender systems suffers from mis-calibration and engineering overhead due to its architectural split and differing optimization objectives. While recent generative sequence models have shown promise in unifying retrieval and ranking by auto-regressively generating ranked items, existing solutions typically address either personalized search or query-free recommendation, often exhibiting performance trade-offs when attempting to unify both. We introduce SynerGen, a novel generative recommender model that bridges this critical gap by providing a single generative backbone for both personalized search and recommendation, while simultaneously excelling at retrieval and ranking tasks. Trained on behavioral sequences, our decoder-only Transformer leverages joint optimization with InfoNCE for retrieval and a hybrid pointwise-pairwise loss for ranking, allowing semantic signals from search to improve recommendation and vice versa. We also propose a novel time-aware rotary positional embedding to effectively incorporate time information into the attention mechanism. SynerGen achieves significant improvements on widely adopted recommendation and search benchmarks compared to strong generative recommender and joint search and recommendation baselines. This work demonstrates the viability of a single generative foundation model for industrial-scale unified information access.

Recent works on learned index open a new direction for the indexing field. The key insight of the learned index is to approximate the mapping between keys and positions with piece-wise linear functions. Such methods require partitioning key space for a better approximation. Although lots of heuristics are proposed to improve the approximation quality, the bottleneck is that the segmentation overheads could hinder the overall performance. This paper tackles the approximation problem by applying a distribution transformation to the keys before constructing the learned index. A two-stage Normalizing-Flow-based Learned index framework (NFL) is proposed, which first transforms the original complex key distribution into a near-uniform distribution, then builds a learned index leveraging the transformed keys. For effective distribution transformation, we propose a Numerical Normalizing Flow (Numerical NF). Based on the characteristics of the transformed keys, we propose a robust After-Flow Learned Index (AFLI). To validate the performance, comprehensive evaluations are conducted on both synthetic and real-world workloads, which shows that the proposed NFL produces the highest throughput and the lowest tail latency compared to the state-of-the-art learned indexes.

Learned sparse retrieval systems aim to combine the effectiveness of contextualized language models with the scalability of conventional data structures such as inverted indexes. Nevertheless, the indexes generated by these systems exhibit significant deviations from the ones that use traditional retrieval models, leading to a discrepancy in the performance of existing query optimizations that were specifically developed for traditional structures. These disparities arise from structural variations in query and document statistics, including sub-word tokenization, leading to longer queries, smaller vocabularies, and different score distributions within posting lists. This paper introduces Block-Max Pruning (BMP), an innovative dynamic pruning strategy tailored for indexes arising in learned sparse retrieval environments. BMP employs a block filtering mechanism to divide the document space into small, consecutive document ranges, which are then aggregated and sorted on the fly, and fully processed only as necessary, guided by a defined safe early termination criterion or based on approximate retrieval requirements. Through rigorous experimentation, we show that BMP substantially outperforms existing dynamic pruning strategies, offering unparalleled efficiency in safe retrieval contexts and improved tradeoffs between precision and efficiency in approximate retrieval tasks.

Information Retrieval using dense low-dimensional representations recently became popular and showed out-performance to traditional sparse-representations like BM25. However, no previous work investigated how dense representations perform with large index sizes. We show theoretically and empirically that the performance for dense representations decreases quicker than sparse representations for increasing index sizes. In extreme cases, this can even lead to a tipping point where at a certain index size sparse representations outperform dense representations. We show that this behavior is tightly connected to the number of dimensions of the representations: The lower the dimension, the higher the chance for false positives, i.e. returning irrelevant documents.

Despite the recent advances in the field of computational Schr\"odinger Bridges (SB), most existing SB solvers are still heavy-weighted and require complex optimization of several neural networks. It turns out that there is no principal solver which plays the role of simple-yet-effective baseline for SB just like, e.g., k-means method in clustering, logistic regression in classification or Sinkhorn algorithm in discrete optimal transport. We address this issue and propose a novel fast and simple SB solver. Our development is a smart combination of two ideas which recently appeared in the field: (a) parameterization of the Schr\"odinger potentials with sum-exp quadratic functions and (b) viewing the log-Schr\"odinger potentials as the energy functions. We show that combined together these ideas yield a lightweight, simulation-free and theoretically justified SB solver with a simple straightforward optimization objective. As a result, it allows solving SB in moderate dimensions in a matter of minutes on CPU without a painful hyperparameter selection. Our light solver resembles the Gaussian mixture model which is widely used for density estimation. Inspired by this similarity, we also prove an important theoretical result showing that our light solver is a universal approximator of SBs. Furthemore, we conduct the analysis of the generalization error of our light solver. The code for our solver can be found at https://github.com/ngushchin/LightSB

Machine learning models in modern mass-market applications are often updated over time. One of the foremost challenges faced is that, despite increasing overall performance, these updates may flip specific model predictions in unpredictable ways. In practice, researchers quantify the number of unstable predictions between models pre and post update -- i.e., predictive churn. In this paper, we study this effect through the lens of predictive multiplicity -- i.e., the prevalence of conflicting predictions over the set of near-optimal models (the Rashomon set). We show how traditional measures of predictive multiplicity can be used to examine expected churn over this set of prospective models -- i.e., the set of models that may be used to replace a baseline model in deployment. We present theoretical results on the expected churn between models within the Rashomon set from different perspectives. And we characterize expected churn over model updates via the Rashomon set, pairing our analysis with empirical results on real-world datasets -- showing how our approach can be used to better anticipate, reduce, and avoid churn in consumer-facing applications. Further, we show that our approach is useful even for models enhanced with uncertainty awareness.

Text embedding models serve as a fundamental component in real-world search applications. By mapping queries and documents into a shared embedding space, they deliver competitive retrieval performance with high efficiency. However, their ranking fidelity remains limited compared to dedicated rerankers, especially recent LLM-based listwise rerankers, which capture fine-grained query-document and document-document interactions. In this paper, we propose a simple yet effective unified framework E^2Rank, means Efficient Embedding-based Ranking (also means Embedding-to-Rank), which extends a single text embedding model to perform both high-quality retrieval and listwise reranking through continued training under a listwise ranking objective, thereby achieving strong effectiveness with remarkable efficiency. By applying cosine similarity between the query and document embeddings as a unified ranking function, the listwise ranking prompt, which is constructed from the original query and its candidate documents, serves as an enhanced query enriched with signals from the top-K documents, akin to pseudo-relevance feedback (PRF) in traditional retrieval models. This design preserves the efficiency and representational quality of the base embedding model while significantly improving its reranking performance. Empirically, E^2Rank achieves state-of-the-art results on the BEIR reranking benchmark and demonstrates competitive performance on the reasoning-intensive BRIGHT benchmark, with very low reranking latency. We also show that the ranking training process improves embedding performance on the MTEB benchmark. Our findings indicate that a single embedding model can effectively unify retrieval and reranking, offering both computational efficiency and competitive ranking accuracy.

In neural Information Retrieval, ongoing research is directed towards improving the first retriever in ranking pipelines. Learning dense embeddings to conduct retrieval using efficient approximate nearest neighbors methods has proven to work well. Meanwhile, there has been a growing interest in learning sparse representations for documents and queries, that could inherit from the desirable properties of bag-of-words models such as the exact matching of terms and the efficiency of inverted indexes. In this work, we present a new first-stage ranker based on explicit sparsity regularization and a log-saturation effect on term weights, leading to highly sparse representations and competitive results with respect to state-of-the-art dense and sparse methods. Our approach is simple, trained end-to-end in a single stage. We also explore the trade-off between effectiveness and efficiency, by controlling the contribution of the sparsity regularization.

Machine learning models are often used to inform real world risk assessment tasks: predicting consumer default risk, predicting whether a person suffers from a serious illness, or predicting a person's risk to appear in court. Given multiple models that perform almost equally well for a prediction task, to what extent do predictions vary across these models? If predictions are relatively consistent for similar models, then the standard approach of choosing the model that optimizes a penalized loss suffices. But what if predictions vary significantly for similar models? In machine learning, this is referred to as predictive multiplicity i.e. the prevalence of conflicting predictions assigned by near-optimal competing models. In this paper, we present a framework for measuring predictive multiplicity in probabilistic classification (predicting the probability of a positive outcome). We introduce measures that capture the variation in risk estimates over the set of competing models, and develop optimization-based methods to compute these measures efficiently and reliably for convex empirical risk minimization problems. We demonstrate the incidence and prevalence of predictive multiplicity in real-world tasks. Further, we provide insight into how predictive multiplicity arises by analyzing the relationship between predictive multiplicity and data set characteristics (outliers, separability, and majority-minority structure). Our results emphasize the need to report predictive multiplicity more widely.

We provide a reproducible, end-to-end demonstration of vector search with OpenAI embeddings using Lucene on the popular MS MARCO passage ranking test collection. The main goal of our work is to challenge the prevailing narrative that a dedicated vector store is necessary to take advantage of recent advances in deep neural networks as applied to search. Quite the contrary, we show that hierarchical navigable small-world network (HNSW) indexes in Lucene are adequate to provide vector search capabilities in a standard bi-encoder architecture. This suggests that, from a simple cost-benefit analysis, there does not appear to be a compelling reason to introduce a dedicated vector store into a modern "AI stack" for search, since such applications have already received substantial investments in existing, widely deployed infrastructure.

We address the challenge of adapting pre-trained Large Language Models (LLMs) for multivariate time-series analysis, where their deployment is often hindered by prohibitive computational and memory demands. Our solution, One-for-All, introduces Gaussian Rank-Stabilized Low-Rank Adapters (rsLoRA) to enable parameter-efficient fine-tuning of frozen LLMs. While inspired by LoRA, rsLoRA introduces a mathematically grounded rank-stabilization mechanism that enables provable gradient stability at low ranks a novel contribution absent in prior PEFT methods. Our framework injects trainable rank decomposition matrices (rank 16) into positional embeddings and output layers, while keeping self-attention weights fixed. This design reduces trainable parameters by 6.8times (vs. TimesNet), 21times (vs. GPT4TS), and 11.8times (vs. TIME-LLM), while achieving a 168-1,776times smaller memory footprint (2.2MiB vs. 340MiB-4.18GiB in SOTA models). Rigorous evaluation across six time-series tasks demonstrates that One-for-All achieves state-of-the-art efficiency-accuracy trade-offs: 5.5times higher parameter efficiency (MSE=5.50) than TimesNet and 21times better than GPT4TS, while matching their forecasting accuracy (MSE=0.33). The framework's stability is validated through consistent performance across diverse horizons (96-720 steps) and datasets (ETT, Weather, M3, M4), with 98.3% fewer parameters than conventional transformers. These advances enable deployment on edge devices for healthcare, finance, and environmental monitoring without compromising performance.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

We revisit the one-shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) paradigm and analyze its advantages over existing NAS approaches. Existing one-shot method, however, is hard to train and not yet effective on large scale datasets like ImageNet. This work propose a Single Path One-Shot model to address the challenge in the training. Our central idea is to construct a simplified supernet, where all architectures are single paths so that weight co-adaption problem is alleviated. Training is performed by uniform path sampling. All architectures (and their weights) are trained fully and equally. Comprehensive experiments verify that our approach is flexible and effective. It is easy to train and fast to search. It effortlessly supports complex search spaces (e.g., building blocks, channel, mixed-precision quantization) and different search constraints (e.g., FLOPs, latency). It is thus convenient to use for various needs. It achieves start-of-the-art performance on the large dataset ImageNet.

Combining simple elements from the literature, we define a linear model that is geared toward sparse data, in particular implicit feedback data for recommender systems. We show that its training objective has a closed-form solution, and discuss the resulting conceptual insights. Surprisingly, this simple model achieves better ranking accuracy than various state-of-the-art collaborative-filtering approaches, including deep non-linear models, on most of the publicly available data-sets used in our experiments.

Efficiently selecting relevant content from vast candidate pools is a critical challenge in modern recommender systems. Traditional methods, such as item-to-item collaborative filtering (CF) and two-tower models, often fall short in capturing the complex user-item interactions due to uniform truncation strategies and overdue user-item crossing. To address these limitations, we propose Personalized Item-to-Item (PI2I), a novel two-stage retrieval framework that enhances the personalization capabilities of CF. In the first Indexer Building Stage (IBS), we optimize the retrieval pool by relaxing truncation thresholds to maximize Hit Rate, thereby temporarily retaining more items users might be interested in. In the second Personalized Retrieval Stage (PRS), we introduce an interactive scoring model to overcome the limitations of inner product calculations, allowing for richer modeling of intricate user-item interactions. Additionally, we construct negative samples based on the trigger-target (item-to-item) relationship, ensuring consistency between offline training and online inference. Offline experiments on large-scale real-world datasets demonstrate that PI2I outperforms traditional CF methods and rivals Two-Tower models. Deployed in the "Guess You Like" section on Taobao, PI2I achieved a 1.05% increase in online transaction rates. In addition, we have released a large-scale recommendation dataset collected from Taobao, containing 130 million real-world user interactions used in the experiments of this paper. The dataset is publicly available at https://huggingface.co/datasets/PI2I/PI2I, which could serve as a valuable benchmark for the research community.

In this paper, we present a new approach to time series forecasting. Time series data are prevalent in many scientific and engineering disciplines. Time series forecasting is a crucial task in modeling time series data, and is an important area of machine learning. In this work we developed a novel method that employs Transformer-based machine learning models to forecast time series data. This approach works by leveraging self-attention mechanisms to learn complex patterns and dynamics from time series data. Moreover, it is a generic framework and can be applied to univariate and multivariate time series data, as well as time series embeddings. Using influenza-like illness (ILI) forecasting as a case study, we show that the forecasting results produced by our approach are favorably comparable to the state-of-the-art.

Efficiently ranking relevant items from large candidate pools is a cornerstone of modern information retrieval systems -- such as web search, recommendation, and retrieval-augmented generation. Listwise rerankers, which improve relevance by jointly considering multiple candidates, are often limited in practice: either by model input size constraints, or by degraded quality when processing large sets. We propose a model-agnostic method for fast reranking large sets that exceed a model input limits. The method first partitions candidate items into overlapping blocks, each of which is ranked independently in parallel. Implicit pairwise comparisons are then derived from these local rankings. Finally, these comparisons are aggregated to construct a global ranking using algorithms such as Winrate or PageRank. Experiments on TREC DL-2019 show that our method achieves an nDCG@10 of 70.88 compared to the 57.68 for full-context listwise approach using gpt-4.1-mini as long-context model, while reducing latency from 21 to 8 seconds. The implementation of the algorithm and the experiments is available in the repository: https://github.com/V3RGANz/jointrank

We show the existence of a Locality-Sensitive Hashing (LSH) family for the angular distance that yields an approximate Near Neighbor Search algorithm with the asymptotically optimal running time exponent. Unlike earlier algorithms with this property (e.g., Spherical LSH [Andoni, Indyk, Nguyen, Razenshteyn 2014], [Andoni, Razenshteyn 2015]), our algorithm is also practical, improving upon the well-studied hyperplane LSH [Charikar, 2002] in practice. We also introduce a multiprobe version of this algorithm, and conduct experimental evaluation on real and synthetic data sets. We complement the above positive results with a fine-grained lower bound for the quality of any LSH family for angular distance. Our lower bound implies that the above LSH family exhibits a trade-off between evaluation time and quality that is close to optimal for a natural class of LSH functions.

This paper is aimed at evaluating state-of-the-art models for Multi-document Summarization (MDS) on different types of datasets in various domains and investigating the limitations of existing models to determine future research directions. To address this gap, we conducted an extensive literature review to identify state-of-the-art models and datasets. We analyzed the performance of PRIMERA and PEGASUS models on BigSurvey-MDS and MS^2 datasets, which posed unique challenges due to their varied domains. Our findings show that the General-Purpose Pre-trained Model LED outperforms PRIMERA and PEGASUS on the MS^2 dataset. We used the ROUGE score as a performance metric to evaluate the identified models on different datasets. Our study provides valuable insights into the models' strengths and weaknesses, as well as their applicability in different domains. This work serves as a reference for future MDS research and contributes to the development of accurate and robust models which can be utilized on demanding datasets with academically and/or scientifically complex data as well as generalized, relatively simple datasets.

In neural Information Retrieval (IR), ongoing research is directed towards improving the first retriever in ranking pipelines. Learning dense embeddings to conduct retrieval using efficient approximate nearest neighbors methods has proven to work well. Meanwhile, there has been a growing interest in learning sparse representations for documents and queries, that could inherit from the desirable properties of bag-of-words models such as the exact matching of terms and the efficiency of inverted indexes. Introduced recently, the SPLADE model provides highly sparse representations and competitive results with respect to state-of-the-art dense and sparse approaches. In this paper, we build on SPLADE and propose several significant improvements in terms of effectiveness and/or efficiency. More specifically, we modify the pooling mechanism, benchmark a model solely based on document expansion, and introduce models trained with distillation. We also report results on the BEIR benchmark. Overall, SPLADE is considerably improved with more than 9\% gains on NDCG@10 on TREC DL 2019, leading to state-of-the-art results on the BEIR benchmark.

Given the damping factor α and precision tolerance ε, andersen2006local introduced Approximate Personalized PageRank (APPR), the de facto local method for approximating the PPR vector, with runtime bounded by Θ(1/(αε)) independent of the graph size. Recently, fountoulakis2022open asked whether faster local algorithms could be developed using O(1/(sqrtαε)) operations. By noticing that APPR is a local variant of Gauss-Seidel, this paper explores the question of whether standard iterative solvers can be effectively localized. We propose to use the locally evolving set process, a novel framework to characterize the algorithm locality, and demonstrate that many standard solvers can be effectively localized. Let operatorname{vol}{ (S_t)} and overlineγ_{t} be the running average of volume and the residual ratio of active nodes textstyle S_{t} during the process. We show operatorname{vol}{ (S_t)}/overlineγ_{t} leq 1/ε and prove APPR admits a new runtime bound O(operatorname{vol}(S_t)/(αoverlineγ_{t})) mirroring the actual performance. Furthermore, when the geometric mean of residual reduction is Θ(sqrtα), then there exists c in (0,2) such that the local Chebyshev method has runtime O(operatorname{vol}(S_{t})/(sqrtα(2-c))) without the monotonicity assumption. Numerical results confirm the efficiency of this novel framework and show up to a hundredfold speedup over corresponding standard solvers on real-world graphs.

Multi-model LLM systems such as routing, voting, cascades, fusion, and mixture-of-agents are used to beat single-model accuracy. We show that their gain is capped by a quantity the field rarely reports. For any policy whose output is one member model answer, accuracy cannot exceed one minus beta, where beta is the rate at which every model is wrong on the same query. In contrast, the usual diagnostic, average pairwise error correlation rho, cannot identify beta: error laws with identical marginals and pairwise correlations can have different all-wrong rates. A Clopper-Pearson bound on beta gives a finite-sample certificate on the largest gain any router, vote, or cascade could deliver before training a router. Across 67 models from 21 providers, a tetrachoric-calibrated single-factor model still underprices the all-wrong tail: on open-ended mathematics, observed beta is 0.052 versus 0.023 under the full 67-model Gaussian copula, about 2.5 times underpricing, with 90 percent CI 1.7 to 3.4 and k equals 17. The effect recurs on execution-graded code, where beta is 0.079. Re-asking the same GPQA-Diamond questions in free-response rather than multiple-choice form reopens the tail, with beta 0.127 and a five-judge panel with kappa 0.73 to 0.92, locating co-failure in answer format rather than subject. At matched quality, low-rho heterogeneous ensembles beat high-rho Self-MoA, but on checkable tasks in our pool, combining models rarely beats the single best model without a strong query-level routing signal. Gains come from models failing on different questions, not from adding more models.

We present NoLBERT, a lightweight, timestamped foundational language model for empirical research in social sciences, particularly in economics and finance. By pre-training exclusively on 1976-1995 text, NoLBERT avoids both lookback and lookahead biases that can undermine econometric inference. It exceeds domain-specific baselines on NLP benchmarks while maintaining temporal consistency. Applied to patent texts, NoLBERT enables the construction of firm-level innovation networks and shows that gains in innovation centrality predict higher long-run profit growth.

Linear time-invariant state space models (SSM) are a classical model from engineering and statistics, that have recently been shown to be very promising in machine learning through the Structured State Space sequence model (S4). A core component of S4 involves initializing the SSM state matrix to a particular matrix called a HiPPO matrix, which was empirically important for S4's ability to handle long sequences. However, the specific matrix that S4 uses was actually derived in previous work for a particular time-varying dynamical system, and the use of this matrix as a time-invariant SSM had no known mathematical interpretation. Consequently, the theoretical mechanism by which S4 models long-range dependencies actually remains unexplained. We derive a more general and intuitive formulation of the HiPPO framework, which provides a simple mathematical interpretation of S4 as a decomposition onto exponentially-warped Legendre polynomials, explaining its ability to capture long dependencies. Our generalization introduces a theoretically rich class of SSMs that also lets us derive more intuitive S4 variants for other bases such as the Fourier basis, and explains other aspects of training S4, such as how to initialize the important timescale parameter. These insights improve S4's performance to 86% on the Long Range Arena benchmark, with 96% on the most difficult Path-X task.

Temporally dense single-person "small data" have become widely available thanks to mobile apps and wearable sensors. Many caregivers and self-trackers want to use these data to help a specific person change their behavior to achieve desired health outcomes. Ideally, this involves discerning possible causes from correlations using that person's own observational time series data. In this paper, we estimate within-individual average treatment effects of physical activity on sleep duration, and vice-versa. We introduce the model twin randomization (MoTR; "motor") method for analyzing an individual's intensive longitudinal data. Formally, MoTR is an application of the g-formula (i.e., standardization, back-door adjustment) under serial interference. It estimates stable recurring effects, as is done in n-of-1 trials and single case experimental designs. We compare our approach to standard methods (with possible confounding) to show how to use causal inference to make better personalized recommendations for health behavior change, and analyze 222 days of Fitbit sleep and steps data for one of the authors.

Traditional topic modeling assigns a single topic to each document. In practice, however, many real-world documents, such as product reviews or open-ended survey responses, contain multiple distinct topics. This mismatch often leads to topic contamination, where unrelated themes are merged into a single topic, making it difficult to identify documents that truly focus on a specific subject. We address this issue by introducing segment-based topic allocation (SBTA), a reformulation of topic modeling that assigns topics not to entire documents, but to segments: short, coherent spans of text that each express a single theme. By modeling topical structure at the segment level, our approach yields cleaner and more interpretable topics and better supports analysis of multi-theme documents. To support systematic evaluation, we construct a SemEval-STM, a new dataset inspired by aspect-based sentiment analysis. Documents are first decomposed into topical segments using large language models (LLMs), followed by human refinement to ensure segment quality. We also propose a segment-level extension of the word intrusion task, enabling human evaluation of topical coherence at the granularity where topics are actually assigned. Across multiple models and evaluation metrics, we show that SBTA improves clustering quality and interpretability. Overall, this work provides a practical, scalable framework for fine-grained topic analysis in heterogeneous text corpora where documents naturally span multiple topics. URL: https://huggingface.co/datasets/LG-AI-Research/SemEval-STM

With the increasing volume of high-frequency data in the information age, both challenges and opportunities arise in the prediction of stock volatility. On one hand, the outcome of prediction using tradition method combining stock technical and macroeconomic indicators still leaves room for improvement; on the other hand, macroeconomic indicators and peoples' search record on those search engines affecting their interested topics will intuitively have an impact on the stock volatility. For the convenience of assessment of the influence of these indicators, macroeconomic indicators and stock technical indicators are then grouped into objective factors, while Baidu search indices implying people's interested topics are defined as subjective factors. To align different frequency data, we introduce GARCH-MIDAS model. After mixing all the above data, we then feed them into Transformer model as part of the training data. Our experiments show that this model outperforms the baselines in terms of mean square error. The adaption of both types of data under Transformer model significantly reduces the mean square error from 1.00 to 0.86.

Recently, Ainsworth et al. showed that using weight matching (WM) to minimize the L_2 distance in a permutation search of model parameters effectively identifies permutations that satisfy linear mode connectivity (LMC), in which the loss along a linear path between two independently trained models with different seeds remains nearly constant. This paper provides a theoretical analysis of LMC using WM, which is crucial for understanding stochastic gradient descent's effectiveness and its application in areas like model merging. We first experimentally and theoretically show that permutations found by WM do not significantly reduce the L_2 distance between two models and the occurrence of LMC is not merely due to distance reduction by WM in itself. We then provide theoretical insights showing that permutations can change the directions of the singular vectors, but not the singular values, of the weight matrices in each layer. This finding shows that permutations found by WM mainly align the directions of singular vectors associated with large singular values across models. This alignment brings the singular vectors with large singular values, which determine the model functionality, closer between pre-merged and post-merged models, so that the post-merged model retains functionality similar to the pre-merged models, making it easy to satisfy LMC. Finally, we analyze the difference between WM and straight-through estimator (STE), a dataset-dependent permutation search method, and show that WM outperforms STE, especially when merging three or more models.

Retrieval models aim at selecting a small set of item candidates which match the preference of a given user. They play a vital role in large-scale recommender systems since subsequent models such as rankers highly depend on the quality of item candidates. However, most existing retrieval models employ a single-round inference paradigm, which may not adequately capture the dynamic nature of user preferences and stuck in one area in the item space. In this paper, we propose Ada-Retrieval, an adaptive multi-round retrieval paradigm for recommender systems that iteratively refines user representations to better capture potential candidates in the full item space. Ada-Retrieval comprises two key modules: the item representation adapter and the user representation adapter, designed to inject context information into items' and users' representations. The framework maintains a model-agnostic design, allowing seamless integration with various backbone models such as RNNs or Transformers. We perform experiments on three widely used public datasets, incorporating five powerful sequential recommenders as backbone models. Our results demonstrate that Ada-Retrieval significantly enhances the performance of various base models, with consistent improvements observed across different datasets. Our code and data are publicly available at: https://github.com/ll0ruc/Ada-Retrieval.

Large language models (LLMs) are incredible and versatile tools for text-based tasks that have enabled countless, previously unimaginable, applications. Retrieval models, in contrast, have not yet seen such capable general-purpose models emerge. To achieve this goal, retrieval models must be able to perform complex retrieval tasks, where queries contain multiple parts, constraints, or requirements in natural language. These tasks represent a natural progression from the simple, single-aspect queries that are used in the vast majority of existing, commonly used evaluation sets. Complex queries naturally arise as people expect search systems to handle more specific and often ambitious information requests, as is demonstrated by how people use LLM-based information systems. Despite the growing desire for retrieval models to expand their capabilities in complex retrieval tasks, there exist limited resources to assess the ability of retrieval models on a comprehensive set of diverse complex tasks. The few resources that do exist feature a limited scope and often lack realistic settings making it hard to know the true capabilities of retrieval models on complex real-world retrieval tasks. To address this shortcoming and spur innovation in next-generation retrieval models, we construct a diverse and realistic set of complex retrieval tasks and benchmark a representative set of state-of-the-art retrieval models. Additionally, we explore the impact of LLM-based query expansion and rewriting on retrieval quality. Our results show that even the best models struggle to produce high-quality retrieval results with the highest average nDCG@10 of only 0.346 and R@100 of only 0.587 across all tasks. Although LLM augmentation can help weaker models, the strongest model has decreased performance across all metrics with all rewriting techniques.

This study introduces De-DSI, a novel framework that fuses large language models (LLMs) with genuine decentralization for information retrieval, particularly employing the differentiable search index (DSI) concept in a decentralized setting. Focused on efficiently connecting novel user queries with document identifiers without direct document access, De-DSI operates solely on query-docid pairs. To enhance scalability, an ensemble of DSI models is introduced, where the dataset is partitioned into smaller shards for individual model training. This approach not only maintains accuracy by reducing the number of data each model needs to handle but also facilitates scalability by aggregating outcomes from multiple models. This aggregation uses a beam search to identify top docids and applies a softmax function for score normalization, selecting documents with the highest scores for retrieval. The decentralized implementation demonstrates that retrieval success is comparable to centralized methods, with the added benefit of the possibility of distributing computational complexity across the network. This setup also allows for the retrieval of multimedia items through magnet links, eliminating the need for platforms or intermediaries.

Recent advances in large language models have demonstrated remarkable effectiveness in information retrieval (IR) tasks. While many neural IR systems encode queries and documents into single-vector representations, multi-vector models elevate the retrieval quality by producing multi-vector representations and facilitating similarity searches at the granularity of individual tokens. However, these models significantly amplify memory and storage requirements for retrieval indices by an order of magnitude. This escalation in index size renders the scalability of multi-vector IR models progressively challenging due to their substantial memory demands. We introduce Embedding from Storage Pipelined Network (ESPN) where we offload the entire re-ranking embedding tables to SSDs and reduce the memory requirements by 5-16x. We design a software prefetcher with hit rates exceeding 90%, improving SSD based retrieval up to 6.4x, and demonstrate that we can maintain near memory levels of query latency even for large query batch sizes.

Time series foundation models have demonstrated impressive performance as zero-shot forecasters. However, achieving effectively unified training on time series remains an open challenge. Existing approaches introduce some level of model specialization to account for the highly heterogeneous nature of time series data. For instance, Moirai pursues unified training by employing multiple input/output projection layers, each tailored to handle time series at a specific frequency. Similarly, TimesFM maintains a frequency embedding dictionary for this purpose. We identify two major drawbacks to this human-imposed frequency-level model specialization: (1) Frequency is not a reliable indicator of the underlying patterns in time series. For example, time series with different frequencies can display similar patterns, while those with the same frequency may exhibit varied patterns. (2) Non-stationarity is an inherent property of real-world time series, leading to varied distributions even within a short context window of a single time series. Frequency-level specialization is too coarse-grained to capture this level of diversity. To address these limitations, this paper introduces Moirai-MoE, using a single input/output projection layer while delegating the modeling of diverse time series patterns to the sparse mixture of experts (MoE) within Transformers. With these designs, Moirai-MoE reduces reliance on human-defined heuristics and enables automatic token-level specialization. Extensive experiments on 39 datasets demonstrate the superiority of Moirai-MoE over existing foundation models in both in-distribution and zero-shot scenarios. Furthermore, this study conducts comprehensive model analyses to explore the inner workings of time series MoE foundation models and provides valuable insights for future research.

It is almost always easier to find an accurate-but-complex model than an accurate-yet-simple model. Finding optimal, sparse, accurate models of various forms (linear models with integer coefficients, decision sets, rule lists, decision trees) is generally NP-hard. We often do not know whether the search for a simpler model will be worthwhile, and thus we do not go to the trouble of searching for one. In this work, we ask an important practical question: can accurate-yet-simple models be proven to exist, or shown likely to exist, before explicitly searching for them? We hypothesize that there is an important reason that simple-yet-accurate models often do exist. This hypothesis is that the size of the Rashomon set is often large, where the Rashomon set is the set of almost-equally-accurate models from a function class. If the Rashomon set is large, it contains numerous accurate models, and perhaps at least one of them is the simple model we desire. In this work, we formally present the Rashomon ratio as a new gauge of simplicity for a learning problem, depending on a function class and a data set. The Rashomon ratio is the ratio of the volume of the set of accurate models to the volume of the hypothesis space, and it is different from standard complexity measures from statistical learning theory. Insight from studying the Rashomon ratio provides an easy way to check whether a simpler model might exist for a problem before finding it, namely whether several different machine learning methods achieve similar performance on the data. In that sense, the Rashomon ratio is a powerful tool for understanding why and when an accurate-yet-simple model might exist. If, as we hypothesize in this work, many real-world data sets admit large Rashomon sets, the implications are vast: it means that simple or interpretable models may often be used for high-stakes decisions without losing accuracy.

We propose a machine learning-based extension of the classical binomial option pricing model that incorporates key market microstructure effects. Traditional models assume frictionless markets, overlooking empirical features such as bid-ask spreads, discrete price movements, and serial return correlations. Our framework augments the binomial tree with path-dependent transition probabilities estimated via Random Forest classifiers trained on high-frequency market data. This approach preserves no-arbitrage conditions while embedding real-world trading dynamics into the pricing model. Using 46,655 minute-level observations of SPY from January to June 2025, we achieve an AUC of 88.25% in forecasting one-step price movements. Order flow imbalance is identified as the most influential predictor, contributing 43.2% to feature importance. After resolving time-scaling inconsistencies in tree construction, our model yields option prices that deviate by 13.79% from Black-Scholes benchmarks, highlighting the impact of microstructure on fair value estimation. While computational limitations restrict the model to short-term derivatives, our results offer a robust, data-driven alternative to classical pricing methods grounded in empirical market behavior.

One technique to improve the retrieval effectiveness of a search engine is to expand documents with terms that are related or representative of the documents' content.From the perspective of a question answering system, this might comprise questions the document can potentially answer. Following this observation, we propose a simple method that predicts which queries will be issued for a given document and then expands it with those predictions with a vanilla sequence-to-sequence model, trained using datasets consisting of pairs of query and relevant documents. By combining our method with a highly-effective re-ranking component, we achieve the state of the art in two retrieval tasks. In a latency-critical regime, retrieval results alone (without re-ranking) approach the effectiveness of more computationally expensive neural re-rankers but are much faster.

As the heart of a search engine, the ranking system plays a crucial role in satisfying users' information demands. More recently, neural rankers fine-tuned from pre-trained language models (PLMs) establish state-of-the-art ranking effectiveness. However, it is nontrivial to directly apply these PLM-based rankers to the large-scale web search system due to the following challenging issues:(1) the prohibitively expensive computations of massive neural PLMs, especially for long texts in the web-document, prohibit their deployments in an online ranking system that demands extremely low latency;(2) the discrepancy between existing ranking-agnostic pre-training objectives and the ad-hoc retrieval scenarios that demand comprehensive relevance modeling is another main barrier for improving the online ranking system;(3) a real-world search engine typically involves a committee of ranking components, and thus the compatibility of the individually fine-tuned ranking model is critical for a cooperative ranking system. In this work, we contribute a series of successfully applied techniques in tackling these exposed issues when deploying the state-of-the-art Chinese pre-trained language model, i.e., ERNIE, in the online search engine system. We first articulate a novel practice to cost-efficiently summarize the web document and contextualize the resultant summary content with the query using a cheap yet powerful Pyramid-ERNIE architecture. Then we endow an innovative paradigm to finely exploit the large-scale noisy and biased post-click behavioral data for relevance-oriented pre-training. We also propose a human-anchored fine-tuning strategy tailored for the online ranking system, aiming to stabilize the ranking signals across various online components. Extensive offline and online experimental results show that the proposed techniques significantly boost the search engine's performance.

Time-series forecasting research has been moving steadily toward larger architectures, from specialized transformers to general-purpose foundation models, on the assumption that capacity is what unlocks accuracy. We take the opposite position: most of the gap can be closed at far lower cost by tuning preprocessing rather than scaling models. We use Ridge regression as the testbed, since it has a closed-form solution and interpretable weights, which let the optimal hyperparameters be read off the search directly. We search over context length, local normalization, regularization, and augmentation on eight standard benchmarks and find three patterns. (1) Optimal lookback is strongly series-specific and often non-monotonic in forecast horizon, with fitted power-law exponents ranging from +0.46 on ETTm2 to -0.19 on Exchange and Traffic, challenging the convention that longer horizons need longer history. (2) Normalizing over a learned trailing fraction of the context, rather than its entirety, is almost universally preferred. (3) Series within the same dataset often disagree on hyperparameters; the optimal degree of cross-series sharing varies from fully shared to fully per-series. The resulting models beat prior linear forecasters on most dataset-horizon entries and exceed Transformer, MLP, and CNN baselines on six of eight benchmarks. The optimized hyperparameters also serve as a diagnostic on the data itself, revealing structures that larger models absorb silently into their learned parameters.

Suppose Alice trains an open-weight language model and Bob uses a blackbox derivative of Alice's model to produce text. Can Alice prove that Bob is using her model, either by querying Bob's derivative model (query setting) or from the text alone (observational setting)? We formulate this question as an independence testing problem--in which the null hypothesis is that Bob's model or text is independent of Alice's randomized training run--and investigate it through the lens of palimpsestic memorization in language models: models are more likely to memorize data seen later in training, so we can test whether Bob is using Alice's model using test statistics that capture correlation between Bob's model or text and the ordering of training examples in Alice's training run. If Alice has randomly shuffled her training data, then any significant correlation amounts to exactly quantifiable statistical evidence against the null hypothesis, regardless of the composition of Alice's training data. In the query setting, we directly estimate (via prompting) the likelihood Bob's model gives to Alice's training examples and order; we correlate the likelihoods of over 40 fine-tunes of various Pythia and OLMo base models ranging from 1B to 12B parameters with the base model's training data order, achieving a p-value on the order of at most 1e-8 in all but six cases. In the observational setting, we try two approaches based on estimating 1) the likelihood of Bob's text overlapping with spans of Alice's training examples and 2) the likelihood of Bob's text with respect to different versions of Alice's model we obtain by repeating the last phase (e.g., 1%) of her training run on reshuffled data. The second approach can reliably distinguish Bob's text from as little as a few hundred tokens; the first does not involve any retraining but requires many more tokens (several hundred thousand) to achieve high power.

The overwhelming volume of data generated and indexed by search engines poses a significant challenge in retrieving documents from the index efficiently and effectively. Even with a well-crafted query, several relevant documents often get buried among a multitude of competing documents, resulting in reduced accessibility or `findability' of the desired document. Consequently, it is crucial to develop a robust methodology for assessing this dimension of Information Retrieval (IR) system performance. While previous studies have focused on measuring document accessibility disregarding user queries and document relevance, there exists no metric to quantify the findability of a document within a given IR system without resorting to manual labor. This paper aims to address this gap by defining and deriving a metric to evaluate the findability of documents as perceived by end-users. Through experiments, we demonstrate the varying impact of different retrieval models and collections on the findability of documents. Furthermore, we establish the findability measure as an independent metric distinct from retrievability, an accessibility measure introduced in prior literature.

This work proposes a novel framework based on nested evolving set processes to accelerate Personalized PageRank (PPR) computation. At each stage of the process, we employ a localized inexact proximal point iteration to solve a simplified linear system. We show that the time complexity of such localized methods is upper bounded by min{mathcal{O}(R^2/ε^2), mathcal{O}(m)} to obtain an ε-approximation of the PPR vector, where m denotes the number of edges in the graph and R is a constant defined via nested evolving set processes. Furthermore, the algorithms induced by our framework require solving only mathcal{O}(1/sqrtα) such linear systems, where α is the damping factor. When 1/ε^2ll m, this implies the existence of an algorithm that computes an epsilon -approximation of the PPR vector with an overall time complexity of mathcal{O}left(R^2 / (sqrtαε^2)right), independent of the underlying graph size. Our result resolves an open conjecture from existing literature. Experimental results on real-world graphs validate the efficiency of our methods, demonstrating significant convergence in the early stages.

Pretrained time series models have enabled inference-only forecasting systems that produce accurate predictions without task-specific training. However, existing approaches largely focus on univariate forecasting, limiting their applicability in real-world scenarios where multivariate data and covariates play a crucial role. We present Chronos-2, a pretrained model capable of handling univariate, multivariate, and covariate-informed forecasting tasks in a zero-shot manner. Chronos-2 employs a group attention mechanism that facilitates in-context learning (ICL) through efficient information sharing across multiple time series within a group, which may represent sets of related series, variates of a multivariate series, or targets and covariates in a forecasting task. These general capabilities are achieved through training on synthetic datasets that impose diverse multivariate structures on univariate series. Chronos-2 delivers state-of-the-art performance across three comprehensive benchmarks: fev-bench, GIFT-Eval, and Chronos Benchmark II. On fev-bench, which emphasizes multivariate and covariate-informed forecasting, Chronos-2's universal ICL capabilities lead to substantial improvements over existing models. On tasks involving covariates, it consistently outperforms baselines by a wide margin. Case studies in the energy and retail domains further highlight its practical advantages. The in-context learning capabilities of Chronos-2 establish it as a general-purpose forecasting model that can be used "as is" in real-world forecasting pipelines.

We introduce a new class of algorithms, Stochastic Generalized Method of Moments (SGMM), for estimation and inference on (overidentified) moment restriction models. Our SGMM is a novel stochastic approximation alternative to the popular Hansen (1982) (offline) GMM, and offers fast and scalable implementation with the ability to handle streaming datasets in real time. We establish the almost sure convergence, and the (functional) central limit theorem for the inefficient online 2SLS and the efficient SGMM. Moreover, we propose online versions of the Durbin-Wu-Hausman and Sargan-Hansen tests that can be seamlessly integrated within the SGMM framework. Extensive Monte Carlo simulations show that as the sample size increases, the SGMM matches the standard (offline) GMM in terms of estimation accuracy and gains over computational efficiency, indicating its practical value for both large-scale and online datasets. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach by a proof of concept using two well known empirical examples with large sample sizes.

Modern recommender systems leverage large-scale retrieval models consisting of two stages: training a dual-encoder model to embed queries and candidates in the same space, followed by an Approximate Nearest Neighbor (ANN) search to select top candidates given a query's embedding. In this paper, we propose a new single-stage paradigm: a generative retrieval model which autoregressively decodes the identifiers for the target candidates in one phase. To do this, instead of assigning randomly generated atomic IDs to each item, we generate Semantic IDs: a semantically meaningful tuple of codewords for each item that serves as its unique identifier. We use a hierarchical method called RQ-VAE to generate these codewords. Once we have the Semantic IDs for all the items, a Transformer based sequence-to-sequence model is trained to predict the Semantic ID of the next item. Since this model predicts the tuple of codewords identifying the next item directly in an autoregressive manner, it can be considered a generative retrieval model. We show that our recommender system trained in this new paradigm improves the results achieved by current SOTA models on the Amazon dataset. Moreover, we demonstrate that the sequence-to-sequence model coupled with hierarchical Semantic IDs offers better generalization and hence improves retrieval of cold-start items for recommendations.

This study examines the effects of de-globalization trends on international trade networks and their role in improving forecasts for economic growth. Using section-level trade data from nearly 200 countries from 2010 to 2022, we identify significant shifts in the network topology driven by rising trade policy uncertainty. Our analysis highlights key global players through centrality rankings, with the United States, China, and Germany maintaining consistent dominance. Using a horse race of supervised regressors, we find that network topology descriptors evaluated from section-specific trade networks substantially enhance the quality of a country's GDP growth forecast. We also find that non-linear models, such as Random Forest, XGBoost, and LightGBM, outperform traditional linear models used in the economics literature. Using SHAP values to interpret these non-linear model's predictions, we find that about half of most important features originate from the network descriptors, underscoring their vital role in refining forecasts. Moreover, this study emphasizes the significance of recent economic performance, population growth, and the primary sector's influence in shaping economic growth predictions, offering novel insights into the intricacies of economic growth forecasting.

Knowledge-intensive language tasks require NLP systems to both provide the correct answer and retrieve supporting evidence for it in a given corpus. Autoregressive language models are emerging as the de-facto standard for generating answers, with newer and more powerful systems emerging at an astonishing pace. In this paper we argue that all this (and future) progress can be directly applied to the retrieval problem with minimal intervention to the models' architecture. Previous work has explored ways to partition the search space into hierarchical structures and retrieve documents by autoregressively generating their unique identifier. In this work we propose an alternative that doesn't force any structure in the search space: using all ngrams in a passage as its possible identifiers. This setup allows us to use an autoregressive model to generate and score distinctive ngrams, that are then mapped to full passages through an efficient data structure. Empirically, we show this not only outperforms prior autoregressive approaches but also leads to an average improvement of at least 10 points over more established retrieval solutions for passage-level retrieval on the KILT benchmark, establishing new state-of-the-art downstream performance on some datasets, while using a considerably lighter memory footprint than competing systems. Code and pre-trained models at https://github.com/facebookresearch/SEAL.

When using Large Language Models (LLMs) to support Knowledge Graph Engineering (KGE), one of the first indications when searching for an appropriate model is its size. According to the scaling laws, larger models typically show higher capabilities. However, in practice, resource costs are also an important factor and thus it makes sense to consider the ratio between model performance and costs. The LLM-KG-Bench framework enables the comparison of LLMs in the context of KGE tasks and assesses their capabilities of understanding and producing KGs and KG queries. Based on a dataset created in an LLM-KG-Bench run covering 26 open state-of-the-art LLMs, we explore the model size scaling laws specific to KGE tasks. In our analyses, we assess how benchmark scores evolve between different model size categories. Additionally, we inspect how the general score development of single models and families of models correlates to their size. Our analyses revealed that, with a few exceptions, the model size scaling laws generally also apply to the selected KGE tasks. However, in some cases, plateau or ceiling effects occurred, i.e., the task performance did not change much between a model and the next larger model. In these cases, smaller models could be considered to achieve high cost-effectiveness. Regarding models of the same family, sometimes larger models performed worse than smaller models of the same family. These effects occurred only locally. Hence it is advisable to additionally test the next smallest and largest model of the same family.

Researchers are usually interested in examining the impact of covariates when separating heterogeneous samples into latent classes that are more homogeneous. The majority of theoretical and empirical studies with such aims have focused on identifying covariates as predictors of class membership in the structural equation modeling framework. In other words, the covariates only indirectly affect the sample heterogeneity. However, the covariates' influence on between-individual differences can also be direct. This article presents a mixture model that investigates covariates to explain within-cluster and between-cluster heterogeneity simultaneously, known as a mixture-of-experts (MoE) model. This study aims to extend the MoE framework to investigate heterogeneity in nonlinear trajectories: to identify latent classes, covariates as predictors to clusters, and covariates that explain within-cluster differences in change patterns over time. Our simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed model generally estimates the parameters unbiasedly, precisely and exhibits appropriate empirical coverage for a nominal 95% confidence interval. This study also proposes implementing structural equation model forests to shrink the covariate space of the proposed mixture model. We illustrate how to select covariates and construct the proposed model with longitudinal mathematics achievement data. Additionally, we demonstrate that the proposed mixture model can be further extended in the structural equation modeling framework by allowing the covariates that have direct effects to be time-varying.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of processing long inputs and locating specific information within them, as evidenced by their performance on the Needle in a Haystack (NIAH) test. However, while models excel at recalling surprising information, they still struggle to identify clearly omitted information. We introduce AbsenceBench to assesses LLMs' capacity to detect missing information across three domains: numerical sequences, poetry, and GitHub pull requests. AbsenceBench asks models to identify which pieces of a document were deliberately removed, given access to both the original and edited contexts. Despite the apparent straightforwardness of these tasks, our experiments reveal that even state-of-the-art models like Claude-3.7-Sonnet achieve only 69.6% F1-score with a modest average context length of 5K tokens. Our analysis suggests this poor performance stems from a fundamental limitation: Transformer attention mechanisms cannot easily attend to "gaps" in documents since these absences don't correspond to any specific keys that can be attended to. Overall, our results and analysis provide a case study of the close proximity of tasks where models are already superhuman (NIAH) and tasks where models breakdown unexpectedly (AbsenceBench).

In this work, we introduce mxbai-edge-colbert-v0 models, at two different parameter counts: 17M and 32M. As part of our research, we conduct numerous experiments to improve retrieval and late-interaction models, which we intend to distill into smaller models as proof-of-concepts. Our ultimate aim is to support retrieval at all scales, from large-scale retrieval which lives in the cloud to models that can run locally, on any device. mxbai-edge-colbert-v0 is a model that we hope will serve as a solid foundation backbone for all future experiments, representing the first version of a long series of small proof-of-concepts. As part of the development of mxbai-edge-colbert-v0, we conducted multiple ablation studies, of which we report the results. In terms of downstream performance, mxbai-edge-colbert-v0 is a particularly capable small model, outperforming ColBERTv2 on common short-text benchmarks (BEIR) and representing a large step forward in long-context tasks, with unprecedented efficiency.

We present a novel method for hierarchical topic detection where topics are obtained by clustering documents in multiple ways. Specifically, we model document collections using a class of graphical models called hierarchical latent tree models (HLTMs). The variables at the bottom level of an HLTM are observed binary variables that represent the presence/absence of words in a document. The variables at other levels are binary latent variables, with those at the lowest latent level representing word co-occurrence patterns and those at higher levels representing co-occurrence of patterns at the level below. Each latent variable gives a soft partition of the documents, and document clusters in the partitions are interpreted as topics. Latent variables at high levels of the hierarchy capture long-range word co-occurrence patterns and hence give thematically more general topics, while those at low levels of the hierarchy capture short-range word co-occurrence patterns and give thematically more specific topics. Unlike LDA-based topic models, HLTMs do not refer to a document generation process and use word variables instead of token variables. They use a tree structure to model the relationships between topics and words, which is conducive to the discovery of meaningful topics and topic hierarchies.

We, team AImsterdam, summarize our submission to the fastMRI challenge (Zbontar et al., 2018). Our approach builds on recent advances in invertible learning to infer models as presented in Putzky and Welling (2019). Both, our single-coil and our multi-coil model share the same basic architecture.

Regression trees are among the most interpretable yet expressive model classes in machine learning. Historically, greedy induction has been the dominant approach for constructing well-performing regression trees. While optimal methods based on dynamic programming and branch-and-bound exist, they are computationally prohibitive for general linear regression trees, despite often achieving substantially better performance than greedy approaches. Recent work has shown that specialized lookahead strategies can dramatically improve runtime while maintaining near-optimal performance, primarily in classification settings. In this work, we develop a novel algorithm for near-optimal, sparse, piecewise linear regression trees that combines a lookahead-style search strategy with efficient rank-one Cholesky updates of the Gram matrix. We demonstrate, both theoretically and empirically, that our method achieves a favorable trade-off between computational efficiency, predictive accuracy, and sparsity, and scales significantly better than the current state of the art.

Learned Sparse Retrieval (LSR) models use vocabularies from pre-trained transformers, which often split entities into nonsensical fragments. Splitting entities can reduce retrieval accuracy and limits the model's ability to incorporate up-to-date world knowledge not included in the training data. In this work, we enhance the LSR vocabulary with Wikipedia concepts and entities, enabling the model to resolve ambiguities more effectively and stay current with evolving knowledge. Central to our approach is a Dynamic Vocabulary (DyVo) head, which leverages existing entity embeddings and an entity retrieval component that identifies entities relevant to a query or document. We use the DyVo head to generate entity weights, which are then merged with word piece weights to create joint representations for efficient indexing and retrieval using an inverted index. In experiments across three entity-rich document ranking datasets, the resulting DyVo model substantially outperforms state-of-the-art baselines.