Daily Papers

In recent years, diffusion models have emerged as powerful tools for generating ensemble members in meteorology. In this work, we demonstrate that a Denoising Diffusion Implicit Model (DDIM) can effectively control ensemble variance by varying the number of diffusion steps. Introducing a theoretical framework, we relate diffusion steps to the variance expressed by the reverse diffusion process. Focusing on reanalysis downscaling, we propose an ensemble diffusion model for the full ERA5-to-CERRA domain, generating variance-calibrated ensemble members for wind speed at full spatial and temporal resolution. Our method aligns global mean variance with a reference ensemble dataset and ensures spatial variance is distributed in accordance with observed meteorological variability. Additionally, we address the lack of ensemble information in the CARRA dataset, showcasing the utility of our approach for efficient, high-resolution ensemble generation.

We present a novel method for efficiently producing semi-dense matches across images. Previous detector-free matcher LoFTR has shown remarkable matching capability in handling large-viewpoint change and texture-poor scenarios but suffers from low efficiency. We revisit its design choices and derive multiple improvements for both efficiency and accuracy. One key observation is that performing the transformer over the entire feature map is redundant due to shared local information, therefore we propose an aggregated attention mechanism with adaptive token selection for efficiency. Furthermore, we find spatial variance exists in LoFTR's fine correlation module, which is adverse to matching accuracy. A novel two-stage correlation layer is proposed to achieve accurate subpixel correspondences for accuracy improvement. Our efficiency optimized model is sim 2.5times faster than LoFTR which can even surpass state-of-the-art efficient sparse matching pipeline SuperPoint + LightGlue. Moreover, extensive experiments show that our method can achieve higher accuracy compared with competitive semi-dense matchers, with considerable efficiency benefits. This opens up exciting prospects for large-scale or latency-sensitive applications such as image retrieval and 3D reconstruction. Project page: https://zju3dv.github.io/efficientloftr.

As convolution has empowered many smart applications, dynamic convolution further equips it with the ability to adapt to diverse inputs. However, the static and dynamic convolutions are either layout-agnostic or computation-heavy, making it inappropriate for layout-specific applications, e.g., face recognition and medical image segmentation. We observe that these applications naturally exhibit the characteristics of large intra-image (spatial) variance and small cross-image variance. This observation motivates our efficient translation variant convolution (TVConv) for layout-aware visual processing. Technically, TVConv is composed of affinity maps and a weight-generating block. While affinity maps depict pixel-paired relationships gracefully, the weight-generating block can be explicitly overparameterized for better training while maintaining efficient inference. Although conceptually simple, TVConv significantly improves the efficiency of the convolution and can be readily plugged into various network architectures. Extensive experiments on face recognition show that TVConv reduces the computational cost by up to 3.1x and improves the corresponding throughput by 2.3x while maintaining a high accuracy compared to the depthwise convolution. Moreover, for the same computation cost, we boost the mean accuracy by up to 4.21%. We also conduct experiments on the optic disc/cup segmentation task and obtain better generalization performance, which helps mitigate the critical data scarcity issue. Code is available at https://github.com/JierunChen/TVConv.

Deploying deep learning models on embedded systems has been challenging due to limited computing resources. The majority of existing work focuses on accelerating image classification, while other fundamental vision problems, such as object detection, have not been adequately addressed. Compared with image classification, detection problems are more sensitive to the spatial variance of objects, and therefore, require specialized convolutions to aggregate spatial information. To address this need, recent work introduces dynamic deformable convolution to augment regular convolutions. However, this will lead to inefficient memory accesses of inputs with existing hardware. In this work, we harness the flexibility of FPGAs to develop a novel object detection pipeline with deformable convolutions. We show the speed-accuracy tradeoffs for a set of algorithm modifications including irregular-access versus limited-range and fixed-shape. We then Co-Design a Network CoDeNet with the modified deformable convolution and quantize it to 4-bit weights and 8-bit activations. With our high-efficiency implementation, our solution reaches 26.9 frames per second with a tiny model size of 0.76 MB while achieving 61.7 AP50 on the standard object detection dataset, Pascal VOC. With our higher accuracy implementation, our model gets to 67.1 AP50 on Pascal VOC with only 2.9 MB of parameters-20.9x smaller but 10% more accurate than Tiny-YOLO.

FPGAs provide a flexible and efficient platform to accelerate rapidly-changing algorithms for computer vision. The majority of existing work focuses on accelerating image classification, while other fundamental vision problems, including object detection and instance segmentation, have not been adequately addressed. Compared with image classification, detection problems are more sensitive to the spatial variance of objects, and therefore, require specialized convolutions to aggregate spatial information. To address this, recent work proposes dynamic deformable convolution to augment regular convolutions. Regular convolutions process a fixed grid of pixels across all the spatial locations in an image, while dynamic deformable convolutions may access arbitrary pixels in the image and the access pattern is input-dependent and varies per spatial location. These properties lead to inefficient memory accesses of inputs with existing hardware. In this work, we first investigate the overhead of the deformable convolution on embedded FPGA SoCs, and then show the accuracy-latency tradeoffs for a set of algorithm modifications including full versus depthwise, fixed-shape, and limited-range. These modifications benefit the energy efficiency for embedded devices in general as they reduce the compute complexity. We then build an efficient object detection network with modified deformable convolutions and quantize the network using state-of-the-art quantization methods. We implement a unified hardware engine on FPGA to support all the operations in the network. Preliminary experiments show that little accuracy is compromised and speedup can be achieved with our co-design optimization for the deformable convolution.

By equipping the most recent 3D Gaussian Splatting representation with head 3D morphable models (3DMM), existing methods manage to create head avatars with high fidelity. However, most existing methods only reconstruct a head without the body, substantially limiting their application scenarios. We found that naively applying Gaussians to model the clothed chest and shoulders tends to result in blurry reconstruction and noisy floaters under novel poses. This is because of the fundamental limitation of Gaussians and point clouds -- each Gaussian or point can only have a single directional radiance without spatial variance, therefore an unnecessarily large number of them is required to represent complicated spatially varying texture, even for simple geometry. In contrast, we propose to model the body part with a neural texture that consists of coarse and pose-dependent fine colors. To properly render the body texture for each view and pose without accurate geometry nor UV mapping, we optimize another sparse set of Gaussians as anchors that constrain the neural warping field that maps image plane coordinates to the texture space. We demonstrate that Gaussian Head & Shoulders can fit the high-frequency details on the clothed upper body with high fidelity and potentially improve the accuracy and fidelity of the head region. We evaluate our method with casual phone-captured and internet videos and show our method archives superior reconstruction quality and robustness in both self and cross reenactment tasks. To fully utilize the efficient rendering speed of Gaussian splatting, we additionally propose an accelerated inference method of our trained model without Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) queries and reach a stable rendering speed of around 130 FPS for any subjects.

This paper presents a generalized model for real-time detection of flying objects that can be used for transfer learning and further research, as well as a refined model that is ready for implementation. We achieve this by training our first generalized model on a data set containing 40 different classes of flying objects, forcing the model to extract abstract feature representations. We then perform transfer learning with these learned parameters on a data set more representative of real world environments (i.e., higher frequency of occlusion, small spatial sizes, rotations, etc.) to generate our refined model. Object detection of flying objects remains challenging due to large variance object spatial sizes/aspect ratios, rate of speed, occlusion, and clustered backgrounds. To address some of the presented challenges while simultaneously maximizing performance, we utilize the current state of the art single-shot detector, YOLOv8, in an attempt to find the best tradeoff between inference speed and mAP. While YOLOv8 is being regarded as the new state-of-the-art, an official paper has not been provided. Thus, we provide an in-depth explanation of the new architecture and functionality that YOLOv8 has adapted. Our final generalized model achieves an mAP50-95 of 0.685 and average inference speed on 1080p videos of 50 fps. Our final refined model maintains this inference speed and achieves an improved mAP50-95 of 0.835.

Physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) offer a mesh-free framework for solving partial differential equations (PDEs), yet training often suffers from gradient pathologies, spectral bias, and poor convergence, especially for problems with strong nonlinearity, sharp gradients, or multiscale features. We propose the Curriculum-Guided Gaussian Mixture Physics-Informed Neural Network (CGMPINN), which integrates Gaussian mixture modeling with dynamic curriculum learning. Specifically, a GMM is periodically fitted to the PDE residual distribution to quantify spatially varying learning difficulty. A smooth curriculum schedule progressively shifts training focus from easy to harder regions, while precision-based variance modulation suppresses unreliable clusters during early optimization. This dual curriculum is governed by a shared curriculum parameter and can be combined with self-adaptive loss balancing. We further establish theoretical guarantees, including sublinear convergence of the gradient norm for the induced time-varying loss, uniform equivalence between the curriculum-weighted and standard PDE losses, and a generalization bound with an explicit weighting-induced bias characterization. Experiments on six benchmark PDEs spanning elliptic, parabolic, hyperbolic, advection-dominated, and nonlinear reaction-diffusion types show that CGMPINN consistently achieves the lowest relative L_2 and maximum absolute errors among all compared methods, reducing relative L_2 error by up to 97.8\% over the standard PINN at comparable cost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/Mathematics-Yang/CGMPINN.

DeepSeek-R1 has demonstrated powerful reasoning capabilities in the text domain through stable reinforcement learning (RL). Recently, in the multimodal domain, works have begun to directly apply RL to generate R1-like free-form reasoning for Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks. However, multimodal tasks share an intrinsically different nature from textual tasks, which heavily rely on the understanding of the input image to solve the problem. Therefore, such free-form reasoning faces two critical limitations in the VQA task: (1) Extended reasoning chains diffuse visual focus away from task-critical regions, degrading answer accuracy. (2) Unverifiable intermediate steps amplify policy-gradient variance and computational costs overhead. To address these issues, in this paper, we introduce SATORI (Spatially Anchored Task Optimization with ReInforcement Learning), which decomposes VQA into three verifiable stages, including global image captioning, region localization, and answer prediction, each supplying explicit reward signals. Furthermore, we also introduce VQA-Verify, a 12k dataset annotated with answer-aligned captions and bounding-boxes to facilitate training. Experiments demonstrate consistent performance improvements across seven VQA benchmarks, achieving up to 15.7% improvement in accuracy in accuracy compared to the R1-like baseline. Our analysis of the attention map confirms enhanced focus on critical regions, which brings improvements in accuracy. Our code is available at https://github.com/justairr/SATORI-R1.

What spatial frequency information do humans and neural networks use to recognize objects? In neuroscience, critical band masking is an established tool that can reveal the frequency-selective filters used for object recognition. Critical band masking measures the sensitivity of recognition performance to noise added at each spatial frequency. Existing critical band masking studies show that humans recognize periodic patterns (gratings) and letters by means of a spatial-frequency filter (or "channel'') that has a frequency bandwidth of one octave (doubling of frequency). Here, we introduce critical band masking as a task for network-human comparison and test 14 humans and 76 neural networks on 16-way ImageNet categorization in the presence of narrowband noise. We find that humans recognize objects in natural images using the same one-octave-wide channel that they use for letters and gratings, making it a canonical feature of human object recognition. On the other hand, the neural network channel, across various architectures and training strategies, is 2-4 times as wide as the human channel. In other words, networks are vulnerable to high and low frequency noise that does not affect human performance. Adversarial and augmented-image training are commonly used to increase network robustness and shape bias. Does this training align network and human object recognition channels? Three network channel properties (bandwidth, center frequency, peak noise sensitivity) correlate strongly with shape bias (53% variance explained) and with robustness of adversarially-trained networks (74% variance explained). Adversarial training increases robustness but expands the channel bandwidth even further away from the human bandwidth. Thus, critical band masking reveals that the network channel is more than twice as wide as the human channel, and that adversarial training only increases this difference.

This work presents the first quantitative study of alignment errors between small uncrewed aerial systems (sUAS) geospatial imagery and a priori building polygons and finds that alignment errors are non-uniform and irregular. The work also introduces a publicly available dataset of imagery, building polygons, and human-generated and curated adjustments that can be used to evaluate existing strategies for aligning building polygons with sUAS imagery. There are no efforts that have aligned pre-existing spatial data with sUAS imagery, and thus, there is no clear state of practice. However, this effort and analysis show that the translational alignment errors present in this type of data, averaging 82px and an intersection over the union of 0.65, which would induce further errors and biases in downstream machine learning systems unless addressed. This study identifies and analyzes the translational alignment errors of 21,619 building polygons in fifty-one orthomosaic images, covering 16787.2 Acres (26.23 square miles), constructed from sUAS raw imagery from nine wide-area disasters (Hurricane Ian, Hurricane Harvey, Hurricane Michael, Hurricane Ida, Hurricane Idalia, Hurricane Laura, the Mayfield Tornado, the Musset Bayou Fire, and the Kilauea Eruption). The analysis finds no uniformity among the angle and distance metrics of the building polygon alignments as they present an average degree variance of 0.4 and an average pixel distance variance of 0.45. This work alerts the sUAS community to the problem of spatial alignment and that a simple linear transform, often used to align satellite imagery, will not be sufficient to align spatial data in sUAS orthomosaic imagery.

Geospatial object segmentation, as a particular semantic segmentation task, always faces with larger-scale variation, larger intra-class variance of background, and foreground-background imbalance in the high spatial resolution (HSR) remote sensing imagery. However, general semantic segmentation methods mainly focus on scale variation in the natural scene, with inadequate consideration of the other two problems that usually happen in the large area earth observation scene. In this paper, we argue that the problems lie on the lack of foreground modeling and propose a foreground-aware relation network (FarSeg) from the perspectives of relation-based and optimization-based foreground modeling, to alleviate the above two problems. From perspective of relation, FarSeg enhances the discrimination of foreground features via foreground-correlated contexts associated by learning foreground-scene relation. Meanwhile, from perspective of optimization, a foreground-aware optimization is proposed to focus on foreground examples and hard examples of background during training for a balanced optimization. The experimental results obtained using a large scale dataset suggest that the proposed method is superior to the state-of-the-art general semantic segmentation methods and achieves a better trade-off between speed and accuracy. Code has been made available at: https://github.com/Z-Zheng/FarSeg.

Bird's-eye view (BEV) perception has gained significant attention because it provides a unified representation to fuse multiple view images and enables a wide range of down-stream autonomous driving tasks, such as forecasting and planning. Recent state-of-the-art models utilize projection-based methods which formulate BEV perception as query learning to bypass explicit depth estimation. While we observe promising advancements in this paradigm, they still fall short of real-world applications because of the lack of uncertainty modeling and expensive computational requirement. In this work, we introduce GaussianLSS, a novel uncertainty-aware BEV perception framework that revisits unprojection-based methods, specifically the Lift-Splat-Shoot (LSS) paradigm, and enhances them with depth un-certainty modeling. GaussianLSS represents spatial dispersion by learning a soft depth mean and computing the variance of the depth distribution, which implicitly captures object extents. We then transform the depth distribution into 3D Gaussians and rasterize them to construct uncertainty-aware BEV features. We evaluate GaussianLSS on the nuScenes dataset, achieving state-of-the-art performance compared to unprojection-based methods. In particular, it provides significant advantages in speed, running 2.5x faster, and in memory efficiency, using 0.3x less memory compared to projection-based methods, while achieving competitive performance with only a 0.4% IoU difference.

Feature Normalization (FN) is an important technique to help neural network training, which typically normalizes features across spatial dimensions. Most previous image inpainting methods apply FN in their networks without considering the impact of the corrupted regions of the input image on normalization, e.g. mean and variance shifts. In this work, we show that the mean and variance shifts caused by full-spatial FN limit the image inpainting network training and we propose a spatial region-wise normalization named Region Normalization (RN) to overcome the limitation. RN divides spatial pixels into different regions according to the input mask, and computes the mean and variance in each region for normalization. We develop two kinds of RN for our image inpainting network: (1) Basic RN (RN-B), which normalizes pixels from the corrupted and uncorrupted regions separately based on the original inpainting mask to solve the mean and variance shift problem; (2) Learnable RN (RN-L), which automatically detects potentially corrupted and uncorrupted regions for separate normalization, and performs global affine transformation to enhance their fusion. We apply RN-B in the early layers and RN-L in the latter layers of the network respectively. Experiments show that our method outperforms current state-of-the-art methods quantitatively and qualitatively. We further generalize RN to other inpainting networks and achieve consistent performance improvements. Our code is available at https://github.com/geekyutao/RN.

Recognizing fine-grained actions from temporally corrupted skeleton sequences remains a significant challenge, particularly in real-world scenarios where online pose estimation often yields substantial missing data. Existing methods often struggle to accurately recover temporal dynamics and fine-grained spatial structures, resulting in the loss of subtle motion cues crucial for distinguishing similar actions. To address this, we propose FineTec, a unified framework for Fine-grained action recognition under Temporal Corruption. FineTec first restores a base skeleton sequence from corrupted input using context-aware completion with diverse temporal masking. Next, a skeleton-based spatial decomposition module partitions the skeleton into five semantic regions, further divides them into dynamic and static subgroups based on motion variance, and generates two augmented skeleton sequences via targeted perturbation. These, along with the base sequence, are then processed by a physics-driven estimation module, which utilizes Lagrangian dynamics to estimate joint accelerations. Finally, both the fused skeleton position sequence and the fused acceleration sequence are jointly fed into a GCN-based action recognition head. Extensive experiments on both coarse-grained (NTU-60, NTU-120) and fine-grained (Gym99, Gym288) benchmarks show that FineTec significantly outperforms previous methods under various levels of temporal corruption. Specifically, FineTec achieves top-1 accuracies of 89.1% and 78.1% on the challenging Gym99-severe and Gym288-severe settings, respectively, demonstrating its robustness and generalizability. Code and datasets could be found at https://smartdianlab.github.io/projects-FineTec/.

Recently, the tokens of images share the same static data flow in many dense networks. However, challenges arise from the variance among the objects in images, such as large variations in the spatial scale and difficulties of recognition for visual entities. In this paper, we propose a data-dependent token routing strategy to elaborate the routing paths of image tokens for Dynamic Vision Transformer, dubbed DiT. The proposed framework generates a data-dependent path per token, adapting to the object scales and visual discrimination of tokens. In feed-forward, the differentiable routing gates are designed to select the scaling paths and feature transformation paths for image tokens, leading to multi-path feature propagation. In this way, the impact of object scales and visual discrimination of image representation can be carefully tuned. Moreover, the computational cost can be further reduced by giving budget constraints to the routing gate and early-stopping of feature extraction. In experiments, our DiT achieves superior performance and favorable complexity/accuracy trade-offs than many SoTA methods on ImageNet classification, object detection, instance segmentation, and semantic segmentation. Particularly, the DiT-B5 obtains 84.8\% top-1 Acc on ImageNet with 10.3 GFLOPs, which is 1.0\% higher than that of the SoTA method with similar computational complexity. These extensive results demonstrate that DiT can serve as versatile backbones for various vision tasks.

Scanpath similarity metrics are central to eye-movement research, yet existing methods predominantly evaluate spatial and temporal alignment while neglecting semantic equivalence between attended image regions. We present a semantic scanpath similarity framework that integrates vision-language models (VLMs) into eye-tracking analysis. Each fixation is encoded under controlled visual context (patch-based and marker-based strategies) and transformed into concise textual descriptions, which are aggregated into scanpath-level representations. Semantic similarity is then computed using embedding-based and lexical NLP metrics and compared against established spatial measures, including MultiMatch and DTW. Experiments on free-viewing eye-tracking data demonstrate that semantic similarity captures partially independent variance from geometric alignment, revealing cases of high content agreement despite spatial divergence. We further analyze the impact of contextual encoding on description fidelity and metric stability. Our findings suggest that multimodal foundation models enable interpretable, content-aware extensions of classical scanpath analysis, providing a complementary dimension for gaze research within the ETRA community.

Distillation-based acceleration has become foundational for making autoregressive streaming video diffusion models practical, with distribution matching distillation (DMD) as the de facto choice. Existing methods, however, train the student to match the teacher's output indiscriminately, treating every rollout, frame, and pixel as equally reliable supervision. We argue that this caps distilled quality, since it overlooks two complementary axes of variance in DMD supervision: Inter-Reliability across student rollouts whose supervision varies in reliability, and Intra-Perplexity across spatial regions and temporal frames that contribute unequally to where quality can still be improved. The objective thus conflates two questions under a uniform weight: whether to learn from each rollout, and where to concentrate optimization within it. To address this, we propose Stream-R1, a Reliability-Perplexity Aware Reward Distillation framework that adaptively reweights the distillation objective at both rollout and spatiotemporal-element levels through a single shared reward-guided mechanism. At the Inter-Reliability level, Stream-R1 rescales each rollout's loss by an exponential of a pretrained video reward score, so that rollouts with reliable supervision dominate optimization. At the Intra-Perplexity level, it back-propagates the same reward model to extract per-pixel gradient saliency, which is factored into spatial and temporal weights that concentrate optimization pressure on regions and frames where refinement yields the largest expected gain. An adaptive balancing mechanism prevents any single quality axis from dominating across visual quality, motion quality, and text alignment. Stream-R1 attains consistent improvements on all three dimensions over distillation baselines on standard streaming video generation benchmarks, without architectural modification or additional inference cost.

Masked Image Modeling (MIM) is a powerful self-supervised strategy for visual pre-training without the use of labels. MIM applies random crops to input images, processes them with an encoder, and then recovers the masked inputs with a decoder, which encourages the network to capture and learn structural information about objects and scenes. The intermediate feature representations obtained from MIM are suitable for fine-tuning on downstream tasks. In this paper, we propose an Image Modeling framework based on random orthogonal projection instead of binary masking as in MIM. Our proposed Random Orthogonal Projection Image Modeling (ROPIM) reduces spatially-wise token information under guaranteed bound on the noise variance and can be considered as masking entire spatial image area under locally varying masking degrees. Since ROPIM uses a random subspace for the projection that realizes the masking step, the readily available complement of the subspace can be used during unmasking to promote recovery of removed information. In this paper, we show that using random orthogonal projection leads to superior performance compared to crop-based masking. We demonstrate state-of-the-art results on several popular benchmarks.

Recently, most handwritten mathematical expression recognition (HMER) methods adopt the encoder-decoder networks, which directly predict the markup sequences from formula images with the attention mechanism. However, such methods may fail to accurately read formulas with complicated structure or generate long markup sequences, as the attention results are often inaccurate due to the large variance of writing styles or spatial layouts. To alleviate this problem, we propose an unconventional network for HMER named Counting-Aware Network (CAN), which jointly optimizes two tasks: HMER and symbol counting. Specifically, we design a weakly-supervised counting module that can predict the number of each symbol class without the symbol-level position annotations, and then plug it into a typical attention-based encoder-decoder model for HMER. Experiments on the benchmark datasets for HMER validate that both joint optimization and counting results are beneficial for correcting the prediction errors of encoder-decoder models, and CAN consistently outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. In particular, compared with an encoder-decoder model for HMER, the extra time cost caused by the proposed counting module is marginal. The source code is available at https://github.com/LBH1024/CAN.

Lack of adequate training samples and noisy high-dimensional features are key challenges faced by Motor Imagery (MI) decoding algorithms for electroencephalogram (EEG) based Brain-Computer Interface (BCI). To address these challenges, inspired from neuro-physiological signatures of MI, this paper proposes a novel Filter-Bank Convolutional Network (FBCNet) for MI classification. FBCNet employs a multi-view data representation followed by spatial filtering to extract spectro-spatially discriminative features. This multistage approach enables efficient training of the network even when limited training data is available. More significantly, in FBCNet, we propose a novel Variance layer that effectively aggregates the EEG time-domain information. With this design, we compare FBCNet with state-of-the-art (SOTA) BCI algorithm on four MI datasets: The BCI competition IV dataset 2a (BCIC-IV-2a), the OpenBMI dataset, and two large datasets from chronic stroke patients. The results show that, by achieving 76.20% 4-class classification accuracy, FBCNet sets a new SOTA for BCIC-IV-2a dataset. On the other three datasets, FBCNet yields up to 8% higher binary classification accuracies. Additionally, using explainable AI techniques we present one of the first reports about the differences in discriminative EEG features between healthy subjects and stroke patients. Also, the FBCNet source code is available at https://github.com/ravikiran-mane/FBCNet.

Spatial confounding poses a significant challenge in scientific studies involving spatial data, where unobserved spatial variables can influence both treatment and outcome, possibly leading to spurious associations. To address this problem, we introduce SpaCE: The Spatial Confounding Environment, the first toolkit to provide realistic benchmark datasets and tools for systematically evaluating causal inference methods designed to alleviate spatial confounding. Each dataset includes training data, true counterfactuals, a spatial graph with coordinates, and smoothness and confounding scores characterizing the effect of a missing spatial confounder. It also includes realistic semi-synthetic outcomes and counterfactuals, generated using state-of-the-art machine learning ensembles, following best practices for causal inference benchmarks. The datasets cover real treatment and covariates from diverse domains, including climate, health and social sciences. SpaCE facilitates an automated end-to-end pipeline, simplifying data loading, experimental setup, and evaluating machine learning and causal inference models. The SpaCE project provides several dozens of datasets of diverse sizes and spatial complexity. It is publicly available as a Python package, encouraging community feedback and contributions.

Mean Field Variational Inference (MFVI) is widely understood to underestimate posterior variance. By analysing conjugate Bayesian Linear Regression (BLR), we show that this characterization is incomplete: while MFVI underestimates the variance in parameter space, it can overestimate the predictive variance compared to the exact posterior. We show that if the MFVI posterior underestimates predictive variances in some directions, it necessarily overestimates them in others. Crucially, this overestimation occurs in directions where the training data concentrates. This leads to the surprising result that, for a test point drawn from the training distribution, MFVI's expected predictive variance exceeds that of the exact posterior. We demonstrate a pathological case of this effect, where the MFVI posterior fails to reduce predictive variance compared to the prior on in distribution data. We connect these results to the Cold Posterior Effect, arguing that varying the temperature can correct this overestimation, yielding predictions closer to those of the exact posterior. We validate our theory on synthetic and real-world regression tasks.

Diffusion models trained on different, non-overlapping subsets of a dataset often produce strikingly similar outputs when given the same noise seed. We trace this consistency to a simple linear effect: the shared Gaussian statistics across splits already predict much of the generated images. To formalize this, we develop a random matrix theory (RMT) framework that quantifies how finite datasets shape the expectation and variance of the learned denoiser and sampling map in the linear setting. For expectations, sampling variability acts as a renormalization of the noise level through a self-consistent relation σ^2 mapsto κ(σ^2), explaining why limited data overshrink low-variance directions and pull samples toward the dataset mean. For fluctuations, our variance formulas reveal three key factors behind cross-split disagreement: anisotropy across eigenmodes, inhomogeneity across inputs, and overall scaling with dataset size. Extending deterministic-equivalence tools to fractional matrix powers further allows us to analyze entire sampling trajectories. The theory sharply predicts the behavior of linear diffusion models, and we validate its predictions on UNet and DiT architectures in their non-memorization regime, identifying where and how samples deviates across training data split. This provides a principled baseline for reproducibility in diffusion training, linking spectral properties of data to the stability of generative outputs.

Imitation learning method has shown immense promise for robotic manipulation, yet its practical deployment is fundamentally constrained by the data scarcity. Despite prior work on collecting large-scale datasets, there still remains a significant gap to robust spatial generalization. We identify a key limitation: individual trajectories, regardless of their length, are typically collected from a single, static spatial configuration of the environment. This includes fixed object and target spatial positions as well as unchanging camera viewpoints, which significantly restricts the diversity of spatial information available for learning. To address this critical bottleneck in data efficiency, we propose MOtion-Based Variability Enhancement (MOVE), a simple yet effective data collection paradigm that enables the acquisition of richer spatial information from dynamic demonstrations. Our core contribution is an augmentation strategy that injects motion into any movable objects within the environment for each demonstration. This process implicitly generates a dense and diverse set of spatial configurations within a single trajectory. We conduct extensive experiments in both simulation and real-world environments to validate our approach. For example, in simulation tasks requiring strong spatial generalization, MOVE achieves an average success rate of 39.1\%, a 76.1\% relative improvement over the static data collection paradigm (22.2\%), and yields up to 2--5times gains in data efficiency on certain tasks. Our code is available at https://github.com/lucywang720/MOVE.

The sliced Wasserstein (SW) distances between two probability measures are defined as the expectation of the Wasserstein distance between two one-dimensional projections of the two measures. The randomness comes from a projecting direction that is used to project the two input measures to one dimension. Due to the intractability of the expectation, Monte Carlo integration is performed to estimate the value of the SW distance. Despite having various variants, there has been no prior work that improves the Monte Carlo estimation scheme for the SW distance in terms of controlling its variance. To bridge the literature on variance reduction and the literature on the SW distance, we propose computationally efficient control variates to reduce the variance of the empirical estimation of the SW distance. The key idea is to first find Gaussian approximations of projected one-dimensional measures, then we utilize the closed-form of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two Gaussian distributions to design the control variates. In particular, we propose using a lower bound and an upper bound of the Wasserstein-2 distance between two fitted Gaussians as two computationally efficient control variates. We empirically show that the proposed control variate estimators can help to reduce the variance considerably when comparing measures over images and point-clouds. Finally, we demonstrate the favorable performance of the proposed control variate estimators in gradient flows to interpolate between two point-clouds and in deep generative modeling on standard image datasets, such as CIFAR10 and CelebA.

Deep learning methods for unsupervised registration often rely on objectives that assume a uniform noise level across the spatial domain (e.g. mean-squared error loss), but noise distributions are often heteroscedastic and input-dependent in real-world medical images. Thus, this assumption often leads to degradation in registration performance, mainly due to the undesired influence of noise-induced outliers. To mitigate this, we propose a framework for heteroscedastic image uncertainty estimation that can adaptively reduce the influence of regions with high uncertainty during unsupervised registration. The framework consists of a collaborative training strategy for the displacement and variance estimators, and a novel image fidelity weighting scheme utilizing signal-to-noise ratios. Our approach prevents the model from being driven away by spurious gradients caused by the simplified homoscedastic assumption, leading to more accurate displacement estimation. To illustrate its versatility and effectiveness, we tested our framework on two representative registration architectures across three medical image datasets. Our method consistently outperforms baselines and produces sensible uncertainty estimates. The code is publicly available at https://voldemort108x.github.io/hetero_uncertainty/.

Spatial audio quality is a highly multifaceted concept, with many interactions between environmental, geometrical, anatomical, psychological, and contextual considerations. Methods for characterization or evaluation of the geometrical components of spatial audio quality, however, remain scarce, despite being perhaps the least subjective aspect of spatial audio quality to quantify. By considering interchannel time and level differences relative to a reference signal, it is possible to construct a signal model to isolate some of the spatial distortion. By using a combination of least-square optimization and heuristics, we propose a signal decomposition method to isolate the spatial error from a processed signal, in terms of interchannel gain leakages and changes in relative delays. This allows the computation of simple energy-ratio metrics, providing objective measures of spatial and non-spatial signal qualities, with minimal assumptions and no dataset dependency. Experiments demonstrate the robustness of the method against common spatial signal degradation introduced by, e.g., audio compression and music source separation. Implementation is available at https://github.com/karnwatcharasupat/spauq.

This article studies the change in the prediction accuracy of a response variable when the number of predictors increases, and all variables follow a multivariate normal distribution. Assuming that the correlations between variables are independently drawn, I show that adding variables leads to globally increasing returns to scale when the mean of the correlation distribution is zero. The speed of learning depends positively on the variance of the correlation distribution. I use simulations to study the more complex case of correlation distributions with a non-zero mean and find a pattern of decreasing returns followed by increasing returns to scale - as long as the variance of correlations is not degenerate, in which case globally decreasing returns emerge. I train a collaborative filtering algorithm using the MovieLens 1M dataset to analyze returns from adding variables in a more realistic setting and find globally increasing returns to scale across 2,000 variables. The results suggest significant scale advantages from additional variables in prediction tasks.

We consider in this paper the problem of optimal experiment design where a decision maker can choose which points to sample to obtain an estimate hatβ of the hidden parameter β^{star} of an underlying linear model. The key challenge of this work lies in the heteroscedasticity assumption that we make, meaning that each covariate has a different and unknown variance. The goal of the decision maker is then to figure out on the fly the optimal way to allocate the total budget of T samples between covariates, as sampling several times a specific one will reduce the variance of the estimated model around it (but at the cost of a possible higher variance elsewhere). By trying to minimize the ell^2-loss E [lVerthatβ-β^{star}rVert^2] the decision maker is actually minimizing the trace of the covariance matrix of the problem, which corresponds then to online A-optimal design. Combining techniques from bandit and convex optimization we propose a new active sampling algorithm and we compare it with existing ones. We provide theoretical guarantees of this algorithm in different settings, including a O(T^{-2}) regret bound in the case where the covariates form a basis of the feature space, generalizing and improving existing results. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings.

Upcoming deep galaxy surveys with JWST will probe galaxy evolution during the epoch of reionisation (EoR, 5leq zleq10) over relatively compact areas (e.g. sim 300\,arcmin^2 for the JADES GTO survey). It is therefore imperative that we understand the degree of survey variance, to evaluate how representative the galaxy populations in these studies will be. We use the First Light And Reionisation Epoch Simulations (FLARES) to measure the galaxy bias of various tracers over an unprecedentedly large range in overdensity for a hydrodynamic simulation, and use these relations to assess the impact of bias and clustering on survey variance in the EoR. Star formation is highly biased relative to the underlying dark matter distribution, with the mean ratio of the stellar to dark matter density varying by a factor of 100 between regions of low and high matter overdensity (smoothed on a scale of 14,h^{-1}cMpc). This is reflected in the galaxy distribution --the most massive galaxies are found solely in regions of high overdensity. As a consequence of the above, galaxies in the EoR are highly clustered, which can lead to large variance in survey number counts. For mean number counts Nlesssim 100 (1000), in a unit redshift slice of angular area 300\,arcmin^2 (1.4\,deg^2), the 2-sigma range in N is roughly a factor of four (two). We present relations between the expected variance and survey area for different survey geometries; these relations will be of use to observers wishing to understand the impact of survey variance on their results.

The study of adversarial robustness has so far largely focused on perturbations bound in p-norms. However, state-of-the-art models turn out to be also vulnerable to other, more natural classes of perturbations such as translations and rotations. In this work, we thoroughly investigate the vulnerability of neural network--based classifiers to rotations and translations. While data augmentation offers relatively small robustness, we use ideas from robust optimization and test-time input aggregation to significantly improve robustness. Finally we find that, in contrast to the p-norm case, first-order methods cannot reliably find worst-case perturbations. This highlights spatial robustness as a fundamentally different setting requiring additional study. Code available at https://github.com/MadryLab/adversarial_spatial and https://github.com/MadryLab/spatial-pytorch.

Benchmarks measure whether a model is correct. They do not measure whether a model is reliable. This distinction is largely academic for single-shot inference, but becomes critical for agentic AI systems, where a single rephrased prompt can trigger cascading failures in multi-step execution. Yet this form of instability is not captured by existing evaluations. Hallucinations live in variance: they arise when semantically equivalent prompts activate inconsistent internal pathways, producing divergent outputs. Consistent but incorrect outputs reflect bias or missing knowledge; confident guessing reflects calibration failure. Neither constitutes hallucination under this definition. When error is variance-dominated, reducing redundant pathways improves reliability without adding knowledge. We formalize this through Semantic Stability (SS), measured via Paraphrase Consistency (PC@k): generate k paraphrases, greedy decode each, compute mode agreement. SS is a diagnostic for variance-driven unreliability, not a method for improving correctness. We show that a dense Qwen3-0.6B agrees with itself only 23.8% of the time; at 32% sparsity, agreement jumps to 55.9%. A phase diagram reveals the sweet spot where variance reduction outpaces bias accumulation, and regimes where stability collapses onto wrong answers.

Typical neural network trainings have substantial variance in test-set performance between repeated runs, impeding hyperparameter comparison and training reproducibility. We present the following results towards understanding this variation. (1) Despite having significant variance on their test-sets, we demonstrate that standard CIFAR-10 and ImageNet trainings have very little variance in their performance on the test-distributions from which those test-sets are sampled, suggesting that variance is less of a practical issue than previously thought. (2) We present a simplifying statistical assumption which closely approximates the structure of the test-set accuracy distribution. (3) We argue that test-set variance is inevitable in the following two senses. First, we show that variance is largely caused by high sensitivity of the training process to initial conditions, rather than by specific sources of randomness like the data order and augmentations. Second, we prove that variance is unavoidable given the observation that ensembles of trained networks are well-calibrated. (4) We conduct preliminary studies of distribution-shift, fine-tuning, data augmentation and learning rate through the lens of variance between runs.

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of bird diversity across Sri Lanka by integrating spatial, temporal, and environmental data. Bird observation records were combined with environmental variables, including weather conditions, air pollution, the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), land cover, elevation, and Artificial Light At Night (ALAN), and rigorously preprocessed to ensure data quality. Spatial analyses were conducted on multiple grid scales (2 km, 5 km, 10 km) to evaluate patterns in species richness while minimizing sampling bias through spatial thinning. Temporal trends were assessed using effort-corrected metrics including rarefied richness and occupancy rates to account for variations in observation effort over time. Environmental drivers of bird diversity were examined using multivariate statistical models, including Poisson Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) and correlation analyses, to identify key associations between ecological factors and species richness. Additionally, community structure, dominance patterns, and beta diversity were analyzed to understand variations in species composition across regions and time. The study found that land-cover type is a stronger predictor of bird diversity than individual continuous variables such as NDVI or temperature alone. Urbanization, measured by ALAN, exhibits nuanced scale-dependent effects, supporting high abundances of a few generalist species while reducing overall richness. The findings provide actionable insights into the patterns and drivers of avian diversity in Sri Lanka, offering a scalable and reproducible framework for biodiversity research and conservation planning.

Control variates are variance reduction tools for Monte Carlo estimators. They can provide significant variance reduction, but usually require a large number of samples, which can be prohibitive when sampling or evaluating the integrand is computationally expensive. Furthermore, there are many scenarios where we need to compute multiple related integrals simultaneously or sequentially, which can further exacerbate computational costs. In this paper, we propose vector-valued control variates, an extension of control variates which can be used to reduce the variance of multiple Monte Carlo estimators jointly. This allows for the transfer of information across integration tasks, and hence reduces the need for a large number of samples. We focus on control variates based on kernel interpolants and our novel construction is obtained through a generalised Stein identity and the development of novel matrix-valued Stein reproducing kernels. We demonstrate our methodology on a range of problems including multifidelity modelling, Bayesian inference for dynamical systems, and model evidence computation through thermodynamic integration.

Safety performance evaluation is critical for developing and deploying connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). One prevailing way is to design testing scenarios using prior knowledge of CAVs, test CAVs in these scenarios, and then evaluate their safety performances. However, significant differences between CAVs and prior knowledge could severely reduce the evaluation efficiency. Towards addressing this issue, most existing studies focus on the adaptive design of testing scenarios during the CAV testing process, but so far they cannot be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. In this paper, we focus on the adaptive safety performance evaluation by leveraging the testing results, after the CAV testing process. It can significantly improve the evaluation efficiency and be applied to high-dimensional scenarios. Specifically, instead of directly evaluating the unknown quantity (e.g., crash rates) of CAV safety performances, we evaluate the differences between the unknown quantity and known quantity (i.e., control variates). By leveraging the testing results, the control variates could be well designed and optimized such that the differences are close to zero, so the evaluation variance could be dramatically reduced for different CAVs. To handle the high-dimensional scenarios, we propose the sparse control variates method, where the control variates are designed only for the sparse and critical variables of scenarios. According to the number of critical variables in each scenario, the control variates are stratified into strata and optimized within each stratum using multiple linear regression techniques. We justify the proposed method's effectiveness by rigorous theoretical analysis and empirical study of high-dimensional overtaking scenarios.

Remote sensing change detection aims to localize and characterize scene changes between two time points and is central to applications such as environmental monitoring and disaster assessment. Meanwhile, visual autoregressive models (VARs) have recently shown impressive image generation capability, but their adoption for pixel-level discriminative tasks remains limited due to weak controllability, suboptimal dense prediction performance and exposure bias. We introduce RemoteVAR, a new VAR-based change detection framework that addresses these limitations by conditioning autoregressive prediction on multi-resolution fused bi-temporal features via cross-attention, and by employing an autoregressive training strategy designed specifically for change map prediction. Extensive experiments on standard change detection benchmarks show that RemoteVAR delivers consistent and significant improvements over strong diffusion-based and transformer-based baselines, establishing a competitive autoregressive alternative for remote sensing change detection. Code will be available https://github.com/yilmazkorkmaz1/RemoteVAR{here}.

Understanding the gradient variance of black-box variational inference (BBVI) is a crucial step for establishing its convergence and developing algorithmic improvements. However, existing studies have yet to show that the gradient variance of BBVI satisfies the conditions used to study the convergence of stochastic gradient descent (SGD), the workhorse of BBVI. In this work, we show that BBVI satisfies a matching bound corresponding to the ABC condition used in the SGD literature when applied to smooth and quadratically-growing log-likelihoods. Our results generalize to nonlinear covariance parameterizations widely used in the practice of BBVI. Furthermore, we show that the variance of the mean-field parameterization has provably superior dimensional dependence.

Geolocating images of a ground-level scene entails estimating the location on Earth where the picture was taken, in absence of GPS or other location metadata. Typically, methods are evaluated by measuring the Great Circle Distance (GCD) between a predicted location and ground truth. However, this measurement is limited because it only evaluates a single point, not estimates of regions or score heatmaps. This is especially important in applications to rural, wilderness and under-sampled areas, where finding the exact location may not be possible, and when used in aggregate systems that progressively narrow down locations. In this paper, we introduce a novel metric, Recall vs Area (RvA), which measures the accuracy of estimated distributions of locations. RvA treats image geolocation results similarly to document retrieval, measuring recall as a function of area: For a ranked list of (possibly non-contiguous) predicted regions, we measure the accumulated area required for the region to contain the ground truth coordinate. This produces a curve similar to a precision-recall curve, where "precision" is replaced by square kilometers area, allowing evaluation of performance for different downstream search area budgets. Following directly from this view of the problem, we then examine a simple ensembling approach to global-scale image geolocation, which incorporates information from multiple sources to help address domain shift, and can readily incorporate multiple models, attribute predictors, and data sources. We study its effectiveness by combining the geolocation models GeoEstimation and the current SOTA GeoCLIP, with attribute predictors based on ORNL LandScan and ESA-CCI Land Cover. We find significant improvements in image geolocation for areas that are under-represented in the training set, particularly non-urban areas, on both Im2GPS3k and Street View images.

Random network models play a prominent role in modeling, analyzing and understanding complex phenomena on real-life networks. However, a key property of networks is often neglected: many real-world networks exhibit spatial structure, the tendency of a node to select neighbors with a probability depending on physical distance. Here, we introduce a class of random spatial networks (RSNs) which generalizes many existing random network models but adds spatial structure. In these networks, nodes are placed randomly in space and joined in edges with a probability depending on their distance and their individual expected degrees, in a manner that crucially remains analytically tractable. We use this network class to propose a new generalization of small-world networks, where the average shortest path lengths in the graph are small, as in classical Watts-Strogatz small-world networks, but with close spatial proximity of nodes that are neighbors in the network playing the role of large clustering. Small-world effects are demonstrated on these spatial small-world networks without clustering. We are able to derive partial integro-differential equations governing susceptible-infectious-recovered disease spreading through an RSN, and we demonstrate the existence of traveling wave solutions. If the distance kernel governing edge placement decays slower than exponential, the population-scale dynamics are dominated by long-range hops followed by local spread of traveling waves. This provides a theoretical modeling framework for recent observations of how epidemics like Ebola evolve in modern connected societies, with long-range connections seeding new focal points from which the epidemic locally spreads in a wavelike manner.

Agentic systems are evaluated on benchmarks where agents interact with environments to solve tasks. Most papers report a pass@1 score computed from a single run per task, assuming this gives a reliable performance estimate. We test this assumption by collecting 60,000 agentic trajectories on SWE-Bench-Verified, spanning three models and two scaffolds. We find substantial variance: single-run pass@1 estimates vary by 2.2 to 6.0 percentage points depending on which run is selected, with standard deviations exceeding 1.5 percentage points even at temperature 0. This variance has critical implications: reported improvements of 2--3 percentage points may reflect evaluation noise rather than genuine algorithmic progress. Through token-level analysis, we show that trajectories diverge early, often within the first few percent of tokens, and that these small differences cascade into different solution strategies. To enable reliable evaluation of agentic systems, we recommend three concrete practices: (1) estimate pass@1 from multiple independent runs per task, especially when measuring small improvements, (2) use statistical power analysis to determine the number of runs needed to detect expected effect sizes, and (3) consider metrics like pass@k (optimistic bound) and pass^k (pessimistic bound) with k>1 to better characterize the full performance envelope. While these practices increase evaluation cost, they are essential for distinguishing genuine scientific progress from statistical noise.

Autoregressive (AR) models are promising for image generation, yet continuous-token AR variants often trail latent diffusion and masked-generation models. The core issue is heterogeneous variance in VAE latents, which is amplified during AR decoding, especially under classifier-free guidance (CFG), and can cause variance collapse. We propose SphereAR to address this issue. Its core design is to constrain all AR inputs and outputs -- including after CFG -- to lie on a fixed-radius hypersphere (constant ell_2 norm), leveraging hyperspherical VAEs. Our theoretical analysis shows that hyperspherical constraint removes the scale component (the primary cause of variance collapse), thereby stabilizing AR decoding. Empirically, on ImageNet generation, SphereAR-H (943M) sets a new state of the art for AR models, achieving FID 1.34. Even at smaller scales, SphereAR-L (479M) reaches FID 1.54 and SphereAR-B (208M) reaches 1.92, matching or surpassing much larger baselines such as MAR-H (943M, 1.55) and VAR-d30 (2B, 1.92). To our knowledge, this is the first time a pure next-token AR image generator with raster order surpasses diffusion and masked-generation models at comparable parameter scales.

Spatial competence is the quality of maintaining a consistent internal representation of an environment and using it to infer discrete structure and plan actions under constraints. Prevailing spatial evaluations for large models are limited to probing isolated primitives through 3D transformations or visual question answering. We introduce the Spatial Competence Benchmark (SCBench), spanning three hierarchical capability buckets whose tasks require executable outputs verified by deterministic checkers or simulator-based evaluators. On SCBench, three frontier models exhibit monotonically decreasing accuracy up the capability ladder. Sweeping output-token caps shows that accuracy gains concentrate at low budgets and saturate quickly, and failures are dominated by locally plausible geometry that breaks global constraints. We release the task generators, verifiers, and visualisation tooling.

In a recent paper Juodis and Reese (2022) (JR) show that the application of the CD test proposed by Pesaran (2004) to residuals from panels with latent factors results in over-rejection. They propose a randomized test statistic to correct for over-rejection, and add a screening component to achieve power. This paper considers the same problem but from a different perspective, and shows that the standard CD test remains valid if the latent factors are weak in the sense the strength is less than half. In the case where latent factors are strong, we propose a bias-corrected version, CD*, which is shown to be asymptotically standard normal under the null of error cross-sectional independence and have power against network type alternatives. This result is shown to hold for pure latent factor models as well as for panel regression models with latent factors. The case where the errors are serially correlated is also considered. Small sample properties of the CD* test are investigated by Monte Carlo experiments and are shown to have the correct size for strong and weak factors as well as for Gaussian and non-Gaussian errors. In contrast, it is found that JR's test tends to over-reject in the case of panels with non-Gaussian errors, and has low power against spatial network alternatives. In an empirical application, using the CD* test, it is shown that there remains spatial error dependence in a panel data model for real house price changes across 377 Metropolitan Statistical Areas in the U.S., even after the effects of latent factors are filtered out.

Uncertainty quantification is essential when dealing with ill-conditioned inverse problems due to the inherent nonuniqueness of the solution. Bayesian approaches allow us to determine how likely an estimation of the unknown parameters is via formulating the posterior distribution. Unfortunately, it is often not possible to formulate a prior distribution that precisely encodes our prior knowledge about the unknown. Furthermore, adherence to handcrafted priors may greatly bias the outcome of the Bayesian analysis. To address this issue, we propose to use the functional form of a randomly initialized convolutional neural network as an implicit structured prior, which is shown to promote natural images and excludes images with unnatural noise. In order to incorporate the model uncertainty into the final estimate, we sample the posterior distribution using stochastic gradient Langevin dynamics and perform Bayesian model averaging on the obtained samples. Our synthetic numerical experiment verifies that deep priors combined with Bayesian model averaging are able to partially circumvent imaging artifacts and reduce the risk of overfitting in the presence of extreme noise. Finally, we present pointwise variance of the estimates as a measure of uncertainty, which coincides with regions that are more difficult to image.

Debates about whether development projects improve living conditions persist, partly because observational estimates can be biased by incomplete adjustment and because reliable outcome data are scarce at the neighborhood level. We address both issues in a continent-scale, sector-specific evaluation of Chinese and World Bank projects across 9,899 neighborhoods in 36 African countries (2002 to 2013), representative of 88% of the population. First, we use a recent dataset that measures living conditions with a machine-learned wealth index derived from contemporaneous satellite imagery, yielding a consistent panel of 6.7 km square mosaics. Second, to strengthen identification, we proxy officials' map-based placement criteria using pre-treatment daytime satellite images and fuse these with rich tabular covariates to estimate funder- and sector-specific ATEs via inverse-probability weighting. Incorporating imagery systematically shrinks effects relative to tabular-only models, indicating prior work likely overstated benefits. On average, both donors raise wealth, with larger gains for China; sector extremes in our sample include Trade and Tourism for the World Bank (+6.27 IWI points), and Emergency Response for China (+14.32). Assignment-mechanism analyses show World Bank placement is generally more predictable from imagery alone, as well as from tabular covariates. This suggests that Chinese project placements are more driven by non-visible, political, or event-driven factors than World Bank placements. To probe residual concerns about selection on observables, we also estimate within-neighborhood (unit) fixed-effects models at a spatial resolution about 450 times finer than prior fixed effects analyses, leveraging the computer-vision-imputed IWI panels; these deliver smaller but directionally consistent effects.

Run the same LLM agent on the same task twice: do you get the same behavior? We find the answer is often no. In a study of 3,000 agent runs across three models (Llama 3.1 70B, GPT-4o, and Claude Sonnet 4.5) on HotpotQA, we observe that ReAct-style agents produce 2.0--4.2 distinct action sequences per 10 runs on average, even with identical inputs. More importantly, this variance predicts failure: tasks with consistent behavior (leq2 unique paths) achieve 80--92% accuracy, while highly inconsistent tasks (geq6 unique paths) achieve only 25--60%, a 32--55 percentage point gap depending on model. We trace variance to early decisions: 69% of divergence occurs at step 2, the first search query. Our results suggest that monitoring behavioral consistency during execution could enable early error detection and improve agent reliability.

Probabilistic super-resolution of high-dimensional spatial fields using diffusion models is often computationally prohibitive due to the cost of operating directly in pixel space. We propose PODiff, a structured conditional generative framework that performs diffusion in a fixed, variance-ordered Proper Orthogonal Decomposition (POD) coefficient space, exploiting the orthogonality of POD modes to impose an interpretable, variance-ordered latent geometry. This design enables efficient ensemble generation, preserves dominant spatial structure, and yields spatially interpretable, well-calibrated uncertainty at substantially lower computational cost. We evaluate PODiff on sea surface temperature downscaling over the West Australian coast and on a controlled advection-diffusion benchmark. PODiff achieves reconstruction accuracy comparable to pixel-space diffusion while requiring significantly less memory and producing more reliable uncertainty estimates than deterministic and Monte Carlo Dropout baselines.

The recent success of distributed word representations has led to an increased interest in analyzing the properties of their spatial distribution. Several studies have suggested that contextualized word embedding models do not isotropically project tokens into vector space. However, current methods designed to measure isotropy, such as average random cosine similarity and the partition score, have not been thoroughly analyzed and are not appropriate for measuring isotropy. We propose IsoScore: a novel tool that quantifies the degree to which a point cloud uniformly utilizes the ambient vector space. Using rigorously designed tests, we demonstrate that IsoScore is the only tool available in the literature that accurately measures how uniformly distributed variance is across dimensions in vector space. Additionally, we use IsoScore to challenge a number of recent conclusions in the NLP literature that have been derived using brittle metrics of isotropy. We caution future studies from using existing tools to measure isotropy in contextualized embedding space as resulting conclusions will be misleading or altogether inaccurate.

Standard methods for detecting discontinuities in conditional means are not applicable to outcomes that are complex, non-Euclidean objects like distributions, networks, or covariance matrices. This article develops a nonparametric test for jumps in conditional means when outcomes lie in a non-Euclidean metric space. Using local Fr\'echet regressionx2014which generalizes standard regression to metric-space valued datax2014the method estimates a mean path on either side of a candidate cutoff, extending existing k-sample tests to a flexible regression setting. Key theoretical contributions include a central limit theorem for the local estimator of the conditional Fr\'echet variance and the asymptotic validity and consistency of the proposed test. Simulations confirm nominal size control and robust power in finite samples. Two applications demonstrate the method's value by revealing effects invisible to scalar-based tests. First, I detect a sharp change in work-from-home compositions at Washington State's income threshold for non-compete enforceability during COVID-19, highlighting remote work's role as a bargaining margin. Second, I find that countries restructure their input-output networks after losing preferential US trade access. These findings underscore that analyzing regression functions within their native metric spaces can reveal structural discontinuities that scalar summaries would miss.

Spatial computing is a technological advancement that facilitates the seamless integration of devices into the physical environment, resulting in a more natural and intuitive digital world user experience. Spatial computing has the potential to become a significant advancement in the field of computing. From GPS and location-based services to healthcare, spatial computing technologies have influenced and improved our interactions with the digital world. The use of spatial computing in creating interactive digital environments has become increasingly popular and effective. This is explained by its increasing significance among researchers and industrial organisations, which motivated us to conduct this review. This review provides a detailed overview of spatial computing, including its enabling technologies and its impact on various applications. Projects related to spatial computing are also discussed. In this review, we also explored the potential challenges and limitations of spatial computing. Furthermore, we discuss potential solutions and future directions. Overall, this paper aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of spatial computing, its enabling technologies, their impact on various applications, emerging challenges, and potential solutions.

Do contemporary diffusion models preserve the class geometry of hyperspherical data? Standard diffusion models rely on isotropic Gaussian noise in the forward process, inherently favoring Euclidean spaces. However, many real-world problems involve non-Euclidean distributions, such as hyperspherical manifolds, where class-specific patterns are governed by angular geometry within hypercones. When modeled in Euclidean space, these angular subtleties are lost, leading to suboptimal generative performance. To address this limitation, we introduce HyperSphereDiff to align hyperspherical structures with directional noise, preserving class geometry and effectively capturing angular uncertainty. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that this approach aligns the generative process with the intrinsic geometry of hyperspherical data, resulting in more accurate and geometry-aware generative models. We evaluate our framework on four object datasets and two face datasets, showing that incorporating angular uncertainty better preserves the underlying hyperspherical manifold. Resources are available at: {https://github.com/IAB-IITJ/Harmonizing-Geometry-and-Uncertainty-Diffusion-with-Hyperspheres/}

In real-world video super-resolution (VSR), videos suffer from in-the-wild degradations and artifacts. VSR methods, especially recurrent ones, tend to propagate artifacts over time in the real-world setting and are more vulnerable than image super-resolution. This paper investigates the influence of artifacts on commonly used covariance-based attention mechanisms in VSR. Comparing the widely-used spatial attention, which computes covariance over space, versus the channel attention, we observe that the latter is less sensitive to artifacts. However, channel attention leads to feature redundancy, as evidenced by the higher covariance among output channels. As such, we explore simple techniques such as the squeeze-excite mechanism and covariance-based rescaling to counter the effects of high channel covariance. Based on our findings, we propose RealViformer. This channel-attention-based real-world VSR framework surpasses state-of-the-art on two real-world VSR datasets with fewer parameters and faster runtimes. The source code is available at https://github.com/Yuehan717/RealViformer.

Significant progress has been made in spatial intelligence, spanning both spatial reconstruction and world exploration. However, the scalability and real-world fidelity of current models remain severely constrained by the scarcity of large-scale, high-quality training data. While several datasets provide camera pose information, they are typically limited in scale, diversity, and annotation richness, particularly for real-world dynamic scenes with ground-truth camera motion. To this end, we collect SpatialVID, a dataset consists of a large corpus of in-the-wild videos with diverse scenes, camera movements and dense 3D annotations such as per-frame camera poses, depth, and motion instructions. Specifically, we collect more than 21,000 hours of raw video, and process them into 2.7 million clips through a hierarchical filtering pipeline, totaling 7,089 hours of dynamic content. A subsequent annotation pipeline enriches these clips with detailed spatial and semantic information, including camera poses, depth maps, dynamic masks, structured captions, and serialized motion instructions. Analysis of SpatialVID's data statistics reveals a richness and diversity that directly foster improved model generalization and performance, establishing it as a key asset for the video and 3D vision research community.

Evaluation benchmarks are the cornerstone of measuring capabilities of large language models (LLMs), as well as driving progress in said capabilities. Originally designed to make claims about capabilities (or lack thereof) in fully pretrained models, evaluation benchmarks are now also extensively used to decide between various training choices. Despite this widespread usage, we rarely quantify the variance in our evaluation benchmarks, which dictates whether differences in performance are meaningful. Here, we define and measure a range of metrics geared towards measuring variance in evaluation benchmarks, including seed variance across initialisations, and monotonicity during training. By studying a large number of models -- both openly available and pretrained from scratch -- we provide empirical estimates for a variety of variance metrics, with considerations and recommendations for practitioners. We also evaluate the utility and tradeoffs of continuous versus discrete performance measures and explore options for better understanding and reducing this variance. We find that simple changes, such as framing choice tasks (like MMLU) as completion tasks, can often reduce variance for smaller scale (sim7B) models, while more involved methods inspired from human testing literature (such as item analysis and item response theory) struggle to meaningfully reduce variance. Overall, our work provides insights into variance in evaluation benchmarks, suggests LM-specific techniques to reduce variance, and more generally encourages practitioners to carefully factor in variance when comparing models.

Humans perceive and understand real-world spaces through a stream of visual observations. Therefore, the ability to streamingly maintain and update spatial evidence from potentially unbounded video streams is essential for spatial intelligence. The core challenge is not simply longer context windows but how spatial information is selected, organized, and retained over time. In this paper, we propose Spatial-TTT towards streaming visual-based spatial intelligence with test-time training (TTT), which adapts a subset of parameters (fast weights) to capture and organize spatial evidence over long-horizon scene videos. Specifically, we design a hybrid architecture and adopt large-chunk updates parallel with sliding-window attention for efficient spatial video processing. To further promote spatial awareness, we introduce a spatial-predictive mechanism applied to TTT layers with 3D spatiotemporal convolution, which encourages the model to capture geometric correspondence and temporal continuity across frames. Beyond architecture design, we construct a dataset with dense 3D spatial descriptions, which guides the model to update its fast weights to memorize and organize global 3D spatial signals in a structured manner. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Spatial-TTT improves long-horizon spatial understanding and achieves state-of-the-art performance on video spatial benchmarks. Project page: https://liuff19.github.io/Spatial-TTT.

Accurate spatiotemporal pattern analysis is critical in fields such as urban traffic, meteorology, and public health monitoring. However, existing methods face performance bottlenecks, typically yielding only incremental gains and often exhibiting limited cross-domain transferability. We analyze this bottleneck through spatial and temporal entropy measures, which are used as diagnostic indicators of spatiotemporal complexity mismatch rather than as guarantees that entropy alignment alone yields better forecasting. Empirically, larger mismatch is often accompanied by higher prediction uncertainty, especially under a fixed model-capacity budget. Guided by this diagnostic, we propose a scalable, adaptive framework that harmonizes spatial and temporal feature representations. Spatial dimensionality is compressed via low-rank matrix embedding to preserve essential structure, while an extended temporal horizon captures long-range dependencies and mitigates cumulative errors arising from temporal heterogeneity. Extensive experiments on urban traffic, meteorological, and epidemic datasets demonstrate substantial accuracy gains and broad applicability across the evaluated domains, suggesting that the framework is promising for a wide range of spatiotemporal tasks beyond the current study. The code is available on GitHub at https://github.com/ST-Balance/ST-Balance.

Remotely sensed geospatial data are critical for applications including precision agriculture, urban planning, disaster monitoring and response, and climate change research, among others. Deep learning methods are particularly promising for modeling many remote sensing tasks given the success of deep neural networks in similar computer vision tasks and the sheer volume of remotely sensed imagery available. However, the variance in data collection methods and handling of geospatial metadata make the application of deep learning methodology to remotely sensed data nontrivial. For example, satellite imagery often includes additional spectral bands beyond red, green, and blue and must be joined to other geospatial data sources that can have differing coordinate systems, bounds, and resolutions. To help realize the potential of deep learning for remote sensing applications, we introduce TorchGeo, a Python library for integrating geospatial data into the PyTorch deep learning ecosystem. TorchGeo provides data loaders for a variety of benchmark datasets, composable datasets for generic geospatial data sources, samplers for geospatial data, and transforms that work with multispectral imagery. TorchGeo is also the first library to provide pre-trained models for multispectral satellite imagery (e.g., models that use all bands from the Sentinel-2 satellites), allowing for advances in transfer learning on downstream remote sensing tasks with limited labeled data. We use TorchGeo to create reproducible benchmark results on existing datasets and benchmark our proposed method for preprocessing geospatial imagery on the fly. TorchGeo is open source and available on GitHub: https://github.com/microsoft/torchgeo.

In statistics, independent, identically distributed random samples do not carry a natural ordering, and their statistics are typically invariant with respect to permutations of their order. Thus, an n-sample in a space M can be considered as an element of the quotient space of M^n modulo the permutation group. The present paper takes this definition of sample space and the related concept of orbit types as a starting point for developing a geometric perspective on statistics. We aim at deriving a general mathematical setting for studying the behavior of empirical and population means in spaces ranging from smooth Riemannian manifolds to general stratified spaces. We fully describe the orbifold and path-metric structure of the sample space when M is a manifold or path-metric space, respectively. These results are non-trivial even when M is Euclidean. We show that the infinite sample space exists in a Gromov-Hausdorff type sense and coincides with the Wasserstein space of probability distributions on M. We exhibit Fr\'echet means and k-means as metric projections onto 1-skeleta or k-skeleta in Wasserstein space, and we define a new and more general notion of polymeans. This geometric characterization via metric projections applies equally to sample and population means, and we use it to establish asymptotic properties of polymeans such as consistency and asymptotic normality.

Most bandit algorithms assume that the reward variances or their upper bounds are known, and that they are the same for all arms. This naturally leads to suboptimal performance and higher regret due to variance overestimation. On the other hand, underestimated reward variances may lead to linear regret due to committing early to a suboptimal arm. This motivated prior works on variance-adaptive frequentist algorithms, which have strong instance-dependent regret bounds but cannot incorporate prior knowledge on reward variances. We lay foundations for the Bayesian setting, which incorporates prior knowledge. This results in lower regret in practice, due to using the prior in the algorithm design, and also improved regret guarantees. Specifically, we study Gaussian bandits with {unknown heterogeneous reward variances}, and develop a Thompson sampling algorithm with prior-dependent Bayes regret bounds. We achieve lower regret with lower reward variances and more informative priors on them, which is precisely why we pay only for what is uncertain. This is the first result of its kind. Finally, we corroborate our theory with extensive experiments, which show the superiority of our variance-adaptive Bayesian algorithm over prior frequentist approaches. We also show that our approach is robust to model misspecification and can be applied with estimated priors.

Large and demographically balanced datasets are essential for reliable neuroimaging biomarkers. Full-resolution 3D brain MRI synthesis can support data augmentation in this setting, but existing approaches either incur prohibitive computational cost at volumetric scale or rely on lossy latent compression that may compromise anatomical detail. As a result, practical 3D generative augmentation often requires specialized compute infrastructure. We propose WaveDiT, a conditional flow matching framework operating in the coefficient space of a 3D Haar Discrete Wavelet Transform. The model combines factorized spatio-depth attention with band-wise heteroscedastic uncertainty modeling derived from higher-order wavelet statistics. Predicted log-variance is integrated directly into both the flow objective and conditioning pathway, enabling adaptive precision consistent with the heavy-tailed and input-dependent variance structure of anatomical detail. This formulation supports full-resolution 3D synthesis under practical memory and time constraints on a single modern GPU. Evaluation on a multi-site cohort demonstrates improved alignment between generated and real MRI distributions, together with enhanced downstream brain age prediction and region-level anatomical agreement relative to diffusion, latent, and wavelet-based baselines. Code is available at https://github.com/sisinflab/WaveDiT

Latent diffusion models leverage visual tokenizers to compress images into latent spaces for efficient generative modeling. However, better reconstruction quality of a tokenizer does not necessarily translate into better generation quality, suggesting that latent representations should be evaluated not only by fidelity but also by their diffusability. Recent studies have proposed diverse explanations for diffusion-friendly latent spaces, including semantic separability, affine equivariance, distribution uniformity, spatial structure, spectral smoothness, and manifold continuity. Yet these properties are often validated on a limited set of tokenizers, leaving it unclear which factors are most predictive of downstream generation quality and whether such conclusions hold beyond the specific settings in which they are introduced. In this work, we conduct a systematic study of latent diffusability by training a large collection of tokenizers with diverse regularization strategies, architectures, and latent configurations, and evaluating them with multiple downstream diffusion backbones. Our analysis identifies several latent properties that consistently correlate with generation quality and exhibit strong generalization across experimental settings. Beyond existing metrics, we introduce Velocity Irreducible Variance (VIV), a measure of velocity ambiguity induced by trajectory crossings. Extensive experiments show that VIV is one of the most stable predictors of generation quality.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) has emerged as a promising approach in image generation, offering competitive potential and performance comparable to diffusion-based models. However, current AR-based visual generation models require substantial computational resources, limiting their applicability on resource-constrained devices. To address this issue, we conducted analysis and identified significant redundancy in three dimensions of the VAR model: (1) the attention map, (2) the attention outputs when using classifier free guidance, and (3) the data precision. Correspondingly, we proposed efficient attention mechanism and low-bit quantization method to enhance the efficiency of VAR models while maintaining performance. With negligible performance lost (less than 0.056 FID increase), we could achieve 85.2% reduction in attention computation, 50% reduction in overall memory and 1.5x latency reduction. To ensure deployment feasibility, we developed efficient training-free compression techniques and analyze the deployment feasibility and efficiency gain of each technique.

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) have made rapid progress in spatial intelligence, yet existing spatial reasoning benchmarks largely assume pristine visual inputs and overlook the degradations that commonly occur in real-world deployment, such as motion blur, low light, adverse weather, lens distortion, and compression artifacts. This raises a fundamental question: how robust is the spatial intelligence of current MLLMs when visual observations are imperfect? To answer this question, we introduce SpaceDG, the first large-scale dataset for degradation-aware spatial understanding. It is constructed with a physically grounded degradation synthesis engine that embeds degradation formation process into 3D Gaussian Splatting (3DGS) rendering, enabling realistic simulation of nine degradation types. The resulting dataset contains approximately 1M QA pairs from nearly 1,000 indoor scenes. We further introduce SpaceDG-Bench, an human-verified benchmark with 1,102 questions spanning 11 reasoning categories and 9 visual degradation types, yielding over 10K VQA instances. Evaluating 25 open- and closed-source MLLMs reveals that visual degradations consistently and substantially impair spatial reasoning, exposing a critical robustness gap. Finally, we show that finetuning on SpaceDG markedly improves degradation robustness and can even surpass human performance under degraded conditions without any performance drop on clean images, highlighting the promise of degradation-aware training for robust spatial intelligence.

We consider the problem of approximating a function from L^2 by an element of a given m-dimensional space V_m, associated with some feature map varphi, using evaluations of the function at random points x_1,dots,x_n. After recalling some results on optimal weighted least-squares using independent and identically distributed points, we consider weighted least-squares using projection determinantal point processes (DPP) or volume sampling. These distributions introduce dependence between the points that promotes diversity in the selected features varphi(x_i). We first provide a generalized version of volume-rescaled sampling yielding quasi-optimality results in expectation with a number of samples n = O(mlog(m)), that means that the expected L^2 error is bounded by a constant times the best approximation error in L^2. Also, further assuming that the function is in some normed vector space H continuously embedded in L^2, we further prove that the approximation is almost surely bounded by the best approximation error measured in the H-norm. This includes the cases of functions from L^infty or reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces. Finally, we present an alternative strategy consisting in using independent repetitions of projection DPP (or volume sampling), yielding similar error bounds as with i.i.d. or volume sampling, but in practice with a much lower number of samples. Numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the different strategies.

Incorporating spatial information, particularly those influenced by climate, weather, and demographic factors, is crucial for improving underwriting precision and enhancing risk management in insurance. However, spatial data are often unstructured, high-dimensional, and difficult to integrate into predictive models. Embedding methods are needed to convert spatial data into meaningful representations for modelling tasks. We propose a novel multi-view contrastive learning framework for generating spatial embeddings that combine information from multiple spatial data sources. To train the model, we construct a spatial dataset that merges satellite imagery and OpenStreetMap features across Europe. The framework aligns these spatial views with coordinate-based encodings, producing low-dimensional embeddings that capture both spatial structure and contextual similarity. Once trained, the model generates embeddings directly from latitude-longitude pairs, enabling any dataset with coordinates to be enriched with meaningful spatial features without requiring access to the original spatial inputs. In a case study on French real estate prices, we compare models trained on raw coordinates against those using our spatial embeddings as inputs. The embeddings consistently improve predictive accuracy across generalised linear, additive, and boosting models, while providing interpretable spatial effects and demonstrating transferability to unseen regions.

Neural Radiance Fields (NeRFs) have shown promise in applications like view synthesis and depth estimation, but learning from multiview images faces inherent uncertainties. Current methods to quantify them are either heuristic or computationally demanding. We introduce BayesRays, a post-hoc framework to evaluate uncertainty in any pre-trained NeRF without modifying the training process. Our method establishes a volumetric uncertainty field using spatial perturbations and a Bayesian Laplace approximation. We derive our algorithm statistically and show its superior performance in key metrics and applications. Additional results available at: https://bayesrays.github.io.

Recent generative AI models have achieved remarkable breakthroughs in language and visual understanding. However, although these models can generate realistic visual content, their spatial scale remains confined to bounded environments, preventing them from capturing how geographic environments evolve across thousands of kilometers or from modeling the spatial structure of the large-scale physical world. This limitation poses a critical challenge for ultra-wide-area spatial intelligence in Earth observation and simulation, revealing a deeper gap in generative AI: progress has relied primarily on scaling model parameters and training data, while overlooking spatial scale as a core dimension of intelligence. Here, motivated by this missing dimension, we investigate spatial scale as a new scaling axis in foundation models and present MetaEarth3D, the first generative foundation model capable of spatially consistent generation at the planetary scale. Taking optical Earth observation simulation as a testbed, MetaEarth3D enables the generation of multi-level, unbounded, and diverse 3D scenes spanning large-scale terrains, medium-scale cities, and fine-grained street blocks. Built upon 10 million globally distributed real-world training images, MetaEarth3D demonstrates both strong visual realism and geospatial statistical realism. Beyond generation, MetaEarth3D serves as a generative data engine for diverse virtual environments in ultra-wide spatial intelligence. We argue that this study may help empower next-generation spatial intelligence for Earth observation.

Recently, Visual Autoregressive (VAR) Models introduced a groundbreaking advancement in the field of image generation, offering a scalable approach through a coarse-to-fine "next-scale prediction" paradigm. However, the state-of-the-art algorithm of VAR models in [Tian, Jiang, Yuan, Peng and Wang, NeurIPS 2024] takes O(n^4) time, which is computationally inefficient. In this work, we analyze the computational limits and efficiency criteria of VAR Models through a fine-grained complexity lens. Our key contribution is identifying the conditions under which VAR computations can achieve sub-quadratic time complexity. Specifically, we establish a critical threshold for the norm of input matrices used in VAR attention mechanisms. Above this threshold, assuming the Strong Exponential Time Hypothesis (SETH) from fine-grained complexity theory, a sub-quartic time algorithm for VAR models is impossible. To substantiate our theoretical findings, we present efficient constructions leveraging low-rank approximations that align with the derived criteria. This work initiates the study of the computational efficiency of the VAR model from a theoretical perspective. Our technique will shed light on advancing scalable and efficient image generation in VAR frameworks.

Recent image generation models show remarkable generation performance. However, they mirror strong location preference in datasets, which we call spatial bias. Therefore, generators render poor samples at unseen locations and scales. We argue that the generators rely on their implicit positional encoding to render spatial content. From our observations, the generator's implicit positional encoding is translation-variant, making the generator spatially biased. To address this issue, we propose injecting explicit positional encoding at each scale of the generator. By learning the spatially unbiased generator, we facilitate the robust use of generators in multiple tasks, such as GAN inversion, multi-scale generation, generation of arbitrary sizes and aspect ratios. Furthermore, we show that our method can also be applied to denoising diffusion probabilistic models.

We study estimation and clustering in Gaussian mixture models under variance misspecification. Observations are generated with true variance σ^2, while the component means are estimated using a likelihood with variance τ^2, yielding a family of mismatched likelihood functions parameterized by the ratio ρ=τ/σ. We show that the interplay between ρ and the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) induces a sharp phase diagram. Under correct specification (ρ=1), maximum likelihood recovers the true means, independently of the SNR. However, once the model is misspecified, two different regimes emerge. Under under-smoothing (ρ<1), the estimated Gaussian means are displaced from the truth, and in low SNR this discrepancy grows as the SNR decreases: for every fixed ρ<1, the squared error scales as SNR^{-1}. Under over-smoothing (ρ>1), the fitted likelihood blurs the cluster separation, causing distinct component means to collapse towards the overall mixture center once ρ^2 exceeds a threshold of the form 1 + λ,SNR, where λ depends on the geometry of the true means. We further show that the hard assignment objective arises as the limit τto 0 of the same mismatched likelihood family, and derive corresponding low- and high-SNR results for hard-assignment mean estimation and latent-label recovery. Furthermore, in low SNR, Bayes-optimal clustering is close to random guessing, and the hard-assignment target remains far from the true means. These results show that in low-SNR applications, even mild variance misspecification or hard-assignment procedures can induce substantial bias, whereas in high SNR these effects are largely absent.

The relationship between material properties and independent variables such as temperature, external field or time, is usually represented by a curve or surface in a multi-dimensional space. Determining such a curve or surface requires a series of experiments or calculations which are often time and cost consuming. A general strategy uses an appropriate utility function to sample the space to recommend the next optimal experiment or calculation within an active learning loop. However, knowing what the optimal sampling strategy to use to minimize the number of experiments is an outstanding problem. We compare a number of strategies based on directed exploration on several materials problems of varying complexity using a Kriging based model. These include one dimensional curves such as the fatigue life curve for 304L stainless steel and the Liquidus line of the Fe-C phase diagram, surfaces such as the Hartmann 3 function in 3D space and the fitted intermolecular potential for Ar-SH, and a four dimensional data set of experimental measurements for BaTiO3 based ceramics. We also consider the effects of experimental noise on the Hartmann 3 function. We find that directed exploration guided by maximum variance provides better performance overall, converging faster across several data sets. However, for certain problems, the trade-off methods incorporating exploitation can perform at least as well, if not better than maximum variance. Thus, we discuss how the choice of the utility function depends on the distribution of the data, the model performance and uncertainties, additive noise as well as the budget.

GUI grounding, which localizes interface elements from screenshots given natural language queries, remains challenging for small icons and dense layouts. Test-time zoom-in methods improve localization by cropping and re-running inference at higher resolution, but apply cropping uniformly across all instances with fixed crop sizes, ignoring whether the model is actually uncertain on each case. We propose UI-Zoomer, a training-free adaptive zoom-in framework that treats both the trigger and scale of zoom-in as a prediction uncertainty quantification problem. A confidence-aware gate fuses spatial consensus among stochastic candidates with token-level generation confidence to selectively trigger zoom-in only when localization is uncertain. When triggered, an uncertainty-driven crop sizing module decomposes prediction variance into inter-sample positional spread and intra-sample box extent, deriving a per-instance crop radius via the law of total variance. Extensive experiments on ScreenSpot-Pro, UI-Vision, and ScreenSpot-v2 demonstrate consistent improvements over strong baselines across multiple model architectures, achieving gains of up to +13.4\%, +10.3\%, and +4.2\% respectively, with no additional training required.

Estimating the causal effects of a spatially-varying intervention on a spatially-varying outcome may be subject to non-local confounding (NLC), a phenomenon that can bias estimates when the treatments and outcomes of a given unit are dictated in part by the covariates of other nearby units. In particular, NLC is a challenge for evaluating the effects of environmental policies and climate events on health-related outcomes such as air pollution exposure. This paper first formalizes NLC using the potential outcomes framework, providing a comparison with the related phenomenon of causal interference. Then, it proposes a broadly applicable framework, termed "weather2vec", that uses the theory of balancing scores to learn representations of non-local information into a scalar or vector defined for each observational unit, which is subsequently used to adjust for confounding in conjunction with causal inference methods. The framework is evaluated in a simulation study and two case studies on air pollution where the weather is an (inherently regional) known confounder.

Large climate-model ensembles are computationally expensive; yet many downstream analyses would benefit from additional, statistically consistent realizations of spatiotemporal climate variables. We study a generative modeling approach for producing new realizations from a limited set of available runs by transferring structure learned across an ensemble. Using monthly near-surface temperature time series from ten independent reanalysis realizations (ERA5), we find that a vanilla conditional variational autoencoder (CVAE) trained jointly across realizations yields a fragmented latent space that fails to generalize to unseen ensemble members. To address this, we introduce a latent-constrained CVAE (LC-CVAE) that enforces cross-realization homogeneity of latent embeddings at a small set of shared geographic 'anchor' locations. We then use multi-output Gaussian process regression in the latent space to predict latent coordinates at unsampled locations in a new realization, followed by decoding to generate full time series fields. Experiments and ablations demonstrate (i) instability when training on a single realization, (ii) diminishing returns after incorporating roughly five realizations, and (iii) a trade-off between spatial coverage and reconstruction quality that is closely linked to the average neighbor distance in latent space.

Large-scale land enclosure for speculative mega-development constitutes a non-equilibrium spatial process whose velocity, topology, and irreversibility remain poorly quantified. We study the Pantai Indah Kapuk 2 (PIK2) coastal mega-development north of Jakarta, Indonesia, using eight years (2017--2024) of Sentinel-2 land-use/land-cover (LULC) data at 10-meter resolution. The landscape is projected onto a Marxian probability simplex partitioning terrestrial pixels into Commons, Agrarian, and Capital fractions. Fisher-Rao (FR) geodesic distances on this simplex identify a transformation pulse of 0.405~rad/yr during 2019--2020, coinciding with major construction activity. Absorbing Markov chain analysis yields expected absorption times into the built environment of 46.0~years for cropland and 38.1~years for tree cover, with a pooled built-area self-retention rate of 96.4%. Percolation analysis reveals that a giant connected component containing 89--95% of all built pixels persists at occupation probabilities p in [0.096, 0.162], far below the random percolation threshold p_c approx 0.593, indicating planned rather than stochastic spatial growth. The box-counting fractal dimension of the urban boundary increases from d_f = 1.316 to 1.397, consistent with increasingly irregular frontier expansion. These results suggest that information-geometric and statistical-mechanical tools can characterize the kinematic and topological signatures of capitalist spatial accumulation with quantitative precision.

Variance reduction (VR) techniques have contributed significantly to accelerating learning with massive datasets in the smooth and strongly convex setting (Schmidt et al., 2017; Johnson & Zhang, 2013; Roux et al., 2012). However, such techniques have not yet met the same success in the realm of large-scale deep learning due to various factors such as the use of data augmentation or regularization methods like dropout (Defazio & Bottou, 2019). This challenge has recently motivated the design of novel variance reduction techniques tailored explicitly for deep learning (Arnold et al., 2019; Ma & Yarats, 2018). This work is an additional step in this direction. In particular, we exploit the ubiquitous clustering structure of rich datasets used in deep learning to design a family of scalable variance reduced optimization procedures by combining existing optimizers (e.g., SGD+Momentum, Quasi Hyperbolic Momentum, Implicit Gradient Transport) with a multi-momentum strategy (Yuan et al., 2019). Our proposal leads to faster convergence than vanilla methods on standard benchmark datasets (e.g., CIFAR and ImageNet). It is robust to label noise and amenable to distributed optimization. We provide a parallel implementation in JAX.

Humans can directly imagine and manipulate visual images in their minds, a capability known as spatial visualization. While multi-modal Large Language Models (MLLMs) support imagination-based reasoning, spatial visualization remains insufficiently evaluated, typically embedded within broader mathematical and logical assessments. Existing evaluations often rely on IQ tests or math competitions that may overlap with training data, compromising assessment reliability. To this end, we introduce SpatialViz-Bench, a comprehensive multi-modal benchmark for spatial visualization with 12 tasks across 4 sub-abilities, comprising 1,180 automatically generated problems. Our evaluation of 33 state-of-the-art MLLMs not only reveals wide performance variations and demonstrates the benchmark's strong discriminative power, but also uncovers counter-intuitive findings: models exhibit unexpected behaviors by showing difficulty perception that misaligns with human intuition, displaying dramatic 2D-to-3D performance cliffs, and defaulting to formula derivation despite spatial tasks requiring visualization alone. SpatialVizBench empirically demonstrates that state-of-the-art MLLMs continue to exhibit deficiencies in spatial visualization tasks, thereby addressing a significant lacuna in the field. The benchmark is publicly available.

Text-to-image (T2I) models have achieved remarkable success in generating high-fidelity images, but they often fail in handling complex spatial relationships, e.g., spatial perception, reasoning, or interaction. These critical aspects are largely overlooked by current benchmarks due to their short or information-sparse prompt design. In this paper, we introduce SpatialGenEval, a new benchmark designed to systematically evaluate the spatial intelligence of T2I models, covering two key aspects: (1) SpatialGenEval involves 1,230 long, information-dense prompts across 25 real-world scenes. Each prompt integrates 10 spatial sub-domains and corresponding 10 multi-choice question-answer pairs, ranging from object position and layout to occlusion and causality. Our extensive evaluation of 21 state-of-the-art models reveals that higher-order spatial reasoning remains a primary bottleneck. (2) To demonstrate that the utility of our information-dense design goes beyond simple evaluation, we also construct the SpatialT2I dataset. It contains 15,400 text-image pairs with rewritten prompts to ensure image consistency while preserving information density. Fine-tuned results on current foundation models (i.e., Stable Diffusion-XL, Uniworld-V1, OmniGen2) yield consistent performance gains (+4.2%, +5.7%, +4.4%) and more realistic effects in spatial relations, highlighting a data-centric paradigm to achieve spatial intelligence in T2I models.

City landscapes viewed through home windows influence quality of life, yet perceptions of actual window views at the urban scale remain understudied. This study presents an approach for large-scale mapping of perceptions using 12,334 window view images (WVIs) collected from actual residential properties listed on real estate platforms in Wuhan, China, representing a rarely explored form of urban view imagery that offers advantages over the rendered or simulated window views commonly examined in previous studies. Through a non-immersive virtual reality platform, we collected 27,477 pairwise comparisons across six perceptual dimensions (e.g.\ Vivid) from 304 participants based on 499 WVIs. A hybrid neural network model was trained to predict human perceptions of all crowdsourced WVIs and map their spatial distribution. Results reveal significant spatial autocorrelation with distinct hot and cold spots across the whole city. Floor level strongly influences human perceptions: while higher floors offer more preferred and extensive window views, lower-floor windows provide residents with quiet and vivid views. An inference model further shows that window view composition matters considerably: high ratios of sky, trees, and low-rise buildings enhance people's preferences and perceptions of vividness, whereas high ratios of high-rise buildings increase perceptions of monotony and oppression. Importantly, these effects are non-linear: the excessive presence of certain elements can alter their impact on human perception. This work advances urban-scale understanding of residents' visual experiences and provides evidence-based guidance for human-centric urban planning and real estate to optimise visual landscapes from windows.

Using data from the Galaxy and Mass Assembly (GAMA) survey, we investigate how galaxy properties correlate with the local environment, focusing on the two southern regions of the survey (G02 and G23) that have not previously been examined in this context. We employ two-point and marked correlation functions to quantify the environmental dependence of galaxy color, stellar mass, luminosity across the u, g, r, J, and K bands, as well as star formation rate (SFR) and specific star formation rate (sSFR). We also assess the impact of redshift incompleteness and cosmic variance on these clustering measurements. Our results show that u-r and g-r colors are most strongly correlated with local overdensity, followed by stellar mass. The sSFR exhibits a clear inverse relationship with density of the environment, consistent with the trend observed for u-band luminosity, which traces young stellar populations. In contrast, galaxies brighter in the g, J, and K bands preferentially inhabit denser regions. By comparing our measurements from the southern regions with those from the equatorial regions of GAMA, we find that cosmic variance does not significantly influence our conclusions. However, redshift incompleteness affects the clustering measurements, as revealed through comparisons of subsets within the G02 region. The measured correlations provide key constraints for models of galaxy assembly across mass and environment, while the environmental trends in color and near-infrared luminosity offer a means to trace stellar mass growth and quenching with redshift.

Many data have an underlying dependence on spatial location; it may be weather on the Earth, a simulation on a mesh, or a registered image. Yet this feature is rarely taken advantage of, and violates common assumptions made by many neural network layers, such as translation equivariance. Further, many works that do incorporate locality fail to capture fine-grained structure. To address this, we introduce the Spatial Mixture-of-Experts (SMoE) layer, a sparsely-gated layer that learns spatial structure in the input domain and routes experts at a fine-grained level to utilize it. We also develop new techniques to train SMoEs, including a self-supervised routing loss and damping expert errors. Finally, we show strong results for SMoEs on numerous tasks, and set new state-of-the-art results for medium-range weather prediction and post-processing ensemble weather forecasts.

This article addresses the challenge of modeling the amplitude of spatially indexed low frequency fluctuations (ALFF) in resting state functional MRI as a function of cortical structural features and a multi-task coactivation network in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study. It proposes a generative model that integrates effects of spatially-varying inputs and a network-valued input using deep neural networks to capture complex non-linear and spatial associations with the output. The method models spatial smoothness, accounts for subject heterogeneity and complex associations between network and spatial images at different scales, enables accurate inference of each images effect on the output image, and allows prediction with uncertainty quantification via Monte Carlo dropout, contributing to one of the first Explainable AI (XAI) frameworks for heterogeneous imaging data. The model is highly scalable to high-resolution data without the heavy pre-processing or summarization often required by Bayesian methods. Empirical results demonstrate its strong performance compared to existing statistical and deep learning methods. We applied the XAI model to the ABCD data which revealed associations between cortical features and ALFF throughout the entire brain. Our model performed comparably to existing methods in predictive accuracy but provided superior uncertainty quantification and faster computation, demonstrating its effectiveness for large-scale neuroimaging analysis. Open-source software in Python for XAI is available.

Large Multimodal Models (LMMs) have achieved strong performance across a range of vision and language tasks. However, their spatial reasoning capabilities are under-investigated. In this paper, we construct a novel VQA dataset, Spatial-MM, to comprehensively study LMMs' spatial understanding and reasoning capabilities. Our analyses on object-relationship and multi-hop reasoning reveal several important findings. Firstly, bounding boxes and scene graphs, even synthetic ones, can significantly enhance LMMs' spatial reasoning. Secondly, LMMs struggle more with questions posed from the human perspective than the camera perspective about the image. Thirdly, chain of thought (CoT) prompting does not improve model performance on complex multi-hop questions involving spatial relations. % Moreover, spatial reasoning steps are much less accurate than non-spatial ones across MLLMs. Lastly, our perturbation analysis on GQA-spatial reveals that LMMs are much stronger at basic object detection than complex spatial reasoning. We believe our benchmark dataset and in-depth analyses can spark further research on LMMs spatial reasoning. Spatial-MM benchmark is available at: https://github.com/FatemehShiri/Spatial-MM

In semantic segmentation, the accuracy of models heavily depends on the high-quality annotations. However, in many practical scenarios such as medical imaging and remote sensing, obtaining true annotations is not straightforward and usually requires significant human labor. Relying on human labor often introduces annotation errors, including mislabeling, omissions, and inconsistency between annotators. In the case of remote sensing, differences in procurement time can lead to misaligned ground truth annotations. These label errors are not independently distributed, and instead usually appear in spatially connected regions where adjacent pixels are more likely to share the same errors. To address these issues, we propose an approximate Bayesian estimation based on a probabilistic model that assumes training data includes label errors, incorporating the tendency for these errors to occur with spatial correlations between adjacent pixels. Bayesian inference requires computing the posterior distribution of label errors, which becomes intractable when spatial correlations are present. We represent the correlation of label errors between adjacent pixels through a Gaussian distribution whose covariance is structured by a Kac-Murdock-Szeg\"{o} (KMS) matrix, solving the computational challenges. Through experiments on multiple segmentation tasks, we confirm that leveraging the spatial correlation of label errors significantly improves performance. Notably, in specific tasks such as lung segmentation, the proposed method achieves performance comparable to training with clean labels under moderate noise levels. Code is available at https://github.com/pfnet-research/Bayesian_SpatialCorr.

Distance correlation is a novel class of multivariate dependence measure, taking positive values between 0 and 1, and applicable to random vectors of arbitrary dimensions, not necessarily equal. It offers several advantages over the well-known Pearson correlation coefficient, the most important is that distance correlation equals zero if and only if the random vectors are independent. There are two different estimators of the distance correlation available in the literature. The first one, proposed by Székely et al. (2007), is based on an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the distance covariance which turns out to be a V-statistic. The second one builds on an unbiased estimator of the distance covariance proposed in Székely et al. (2014), proved to be an U-statistic by Székely and Huo (2016). This study evaluates their efficiency (mean squared error) and compares computational times for both methods under different dependence structures. Under conditions of independence or near-independence, the V-estimates are biased, while the U-estimator frequently cannot be computed due to negative values. To address this challenge, a convex linear combination of the former estimators is proposed and studied, yielding good results regardless of the level of dependence.

Text-to-image diffusion models excel at generating photorealistic images, but commonly struggle to render accurate spatial relationships described in text prompts. We identify two core issues underlying this common failure: 1) the ambiguous nature of spatial-related data in existing datasets, and 2) the inability of current text encoders to accurately interpret the spatial semantics of input descriptions. We address these issues with CoMPaSS, a versatile training framework that enhances spatial understanding of any T2I diffusion model. CoMPaSS solves the ambiguity of spatial-related data with the Spatial Constraints-Oriented Pairing (SCOP) data engine, which curates spatially-accurate training data through a set of principled spatial constraints. To better exploit the curated high-quality spatial priors, CoMPaSS further introduces a Token ENcoding ORdering (TENOR) module to allow better exploitation of high-quality spatial priors, effectively compensating for the shortcoming of text encoders. Extensive experiments on four popular open-weight T2I diffusion models covering both UNet- and MMDiT-based architectures demonstrate the effectiveness of CoMPaSS by setting new state-of-the-arts with substantial relative gains across well-known benchmarks on spatial relationships generation, including VISOR (+98%), T2I-CompBench Spatial (+67%), and GenEval Position (+131%). Code will be available at https://github.com/blurgyy/CoMPaSS.

Many social and environmental phenomena are associated with macroscopic changes in the built environment, captured by satellite imagery on a global scale and with daily temporal resolution. While widely used for prediction, these images and especially image sequences remain underutilized for causal inference, especially in the context of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), where causal identification is established by design. In this paper, we develop and compare a set of general tools for analyzing Conditional Average Treatment Effects (CATEs) from temporal satellite data that can be applied to any RCT where geographical identifiers are available. Through a simulation study, we analyze different modeling strategies for estimating CATE in sequences of satellite images. We find that image sequence representation models with more parameters generally yield a greater ability to detect heterogeneity. To explore the role of model and data choice in practice, we apply the approaches to two influential RCTs -- Banerjee et al. (2015), a poverty study in Cusco, Peru, and Bolsen et al. (2014), a water conservation experiment in Georgia, USA. We benchmark our image sequence models against image-only, tabular-only, and combined image-tabular data sources, summarizing practical implications for investigators in a multivariate analysis. Land cover classifications over satellite images facilitate interpretation of what image features drive heterogeneity. We also show robustness to data and model choice of satellite-based generalization of the RCT results to larger geographical areas outside the original. Overall, this paper shows how satellite sequence data can be incorporated into the analysis of RCTs, and provides evidence about the implications of data, model, and evaluation metric choice for causal analysis.

In this paper, we propose a dimensionless anomaly detection method for multivariate streams. Our method is independent of the unit of measurement for the different stream channels, therefore dimensionless. We first propose the variance norm, a generalisation of Mahalanobis distance to handle infinite-dimensional feature space and singular empirical covariance matrix rigorously. We then combine the variance norm with the path signature, an infinite collection of iterated integrals that provide global features of streams, to propose SigMahaKNN, a method for anomaly detection on (multivariate) streams. We show that SigMahaKNN is invariant to stream reparametrisation, stream concatenation and has a graded discrimination power depending on the truncation level of the path signature. We implement SigMahaKNN as an open-source software, and perform extensive numerical experiments, showing significantly improved anomaly detection on streams compared to isolation forest and local outlier factors in applications ranging from language analysis, hand-writing analysis, ship movement paths analysis and univariate time-series analysis.

With the rapid development of spatial audio technologies today, applications in AR, VR, and other scenarios have garnered extensive attention. Unlike traditional mono sound, spatial audio offers a more realistic and immersive auditory experience. Despite notable progress in the field, there remains a lack of comprehensive surveys that systematically organize and analyze these methods and their underlying technologies. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive overview of spatial audio and systematically review recent literature in the area. To address this, we chronologically outlining existing work related to spatial audio and categorize these studies based on input-output representations, as well as generation and understanding tasks, thereby summarizing various research aspects of spatial audio. In addition, we review related datasets, evaluation metrics, and benchmarks, offering insights from both training and evaluation perspectives. Related materials are available at https://github.com/dieKarotte/ASAudio.

We propose a monocular depth estimation method based on visual autoregressive (VAR) priors, offering an alternative to diffusion-based approaches. Our method adapts a large-scale text-to-image VAR model and introduces a scale-wise conditional upsampling mechanism with classifier-free guidance. Our approach performs inference in ten fixed autoregressive stages, requiring only 74K synthetic samples for fine-tuning, and achieves competitive results. We report state-of-the-art performance in indoor benchmarks under constrained training conditions, and strong performance when applied to outdoor datasets. This work establishes autoregressive priors as a complementary family of geometry-aware generative models for depth estimation, highlighting advantages in data scalability, and adaptability to 3D vision tasks. Code available at "https://github.com/AmirMaEl/VAR-Depth".

Visual Auto-Regressive modeling (VAR) has shown promise in bridging the speed and quality gap between autoregressive image models and diffusion models. VAR reformulates autoregressive modeling by decomposing an image into successive resolution scales. During inference, an image is generated by predicting all the tokens in the next (higher-resolution) scale, conditioned on all tokens in all previous (lower-resolution) scales. However, this formulation suffers from reduced image quality due to the parallel generation of all tokens in a resolution scale; has sequence lengths scaling superlinearly in image resolution; and requires retraining to change the sampling schedule. We introduce Hierarchical Masked Auto-Regressive modeling (HMAR), a new image generation algorithm that alleviates these issues using next-scale prediction and masked prediction to generate high-quality images with fast sampling. HMAR reformulates next-scale prediction as a Markovian process, wherein the prediction of each resolution scale is conditioned only on tokens in its immediate predecessor instead of the tokens in all predecessor resolutions. When predicting a resolution scale, HMAR uses a controllable multi-step masked generation procedure to generate a subset of the tokens in each step. On ImageNet 256x256 and 512x512 benchmarks, HMAR models match or outperform parameter-matched VAR, diffusion, and autoregressive baselines. We develop efficient IO-aware block-sparse attention kernels that allow HMAR to achieve faster training and inference times over VAR by over 2.5x and 1.75x respectively, as well as over 3x lower inference memory footprint. Finally, HMAR yields additional flexibility over VAR; its sampling schedule can be changed without further training, and it can be applied to image editing tasks in a zero-shot manner.

The spatio-temporal relations of impacts of extreme events and their drivers in climate data are not fully understood and there is a need of machine learning approaches to identify such spatio-temporal relations from data. The task, however, is very challenging since there are time delays between extremes and their drivers, and the spatial response of such drivers is inhomogeneous. In this work, we propose a first approach and benchmarks to tackle this challenge. Our approach is trained end-to-end to predict spatio-temporally extremes and spatio-temporally drivers in the physical input variables jointly. By enforcing the network to predict extremes from spatio-temporal binary masks of identified drivers, the network successfully identifies drivers that are correlated with extremes. We evaluate our approach on three newly created synthetic benchmarks, where two of them are based on remote sensing or reanalysis climate data, and on two real-world reanalysis datasets. The source code and datasets are publicly available at the project page https://hakamshams.github.io/IDE.

Clinicians trace cephalometric radiographs following a structured anatomical workflow, yet no prior system encodes this into computation. We present a five-phase anatomy-guided pipeline producing confidence-weighted spatial priors that shape HRNet-W32 training, achieving 1.04 mm mean radial error on 25 landmarks across 1,502 radiographs from 7+ imaging devices. A training x inference prior matrix isolates the mechanism: anatomical priors maintain a 1% validation-to-test gap versus 88% without priors (1.94 mm), despite identical validation convergence. The matrix establishes that all trained models are inference-independent, the expanded architecture alone provides no benefit, random priors yield partial but unstable improvement (1.72 mm), and only image-specific anatomically correct priors produce the 1.04 mm result -- functioning as a training-time regularizer requiring no automated prior generation at deployment. Five-fold cross-validation (p=0.0015), patient-level permutation testing (p<0.0001, n=151), quantified Grad-CAM analysis (88% vs. 74% in-zone activation, p<0.001), and clinical measurement validation (skeletal classification kappa=0.79-0.84, zero Class II<->III reversals, ICC>0.95) provide converging evidence. Cross-domain experiments on echocardiography, cervical spine, and hand radiography support the hypothesis that prior effectiveness scales with the spatial entropy of the landmark distribution.

Spatial visualization is the mental ability to imagine, transform, and manipulate the spatial characteristics of objects and actions. This intelligence is a part of human cognition where actions and perception are connected on a mental level. To explore whether state-of-the-art Vision-Language Models (VLMs) exhibit this ability, we develop MentalBlackboard, an open-ended spatial visualization benchmark for Paper Folding and Hole Punching tests within two core tasks: prediction and planning. Our prediction experiments reveal that models struggle with applying symmetrical transformations, even when they predict the sequence of unfolding steps correctly. Also, rotations introduce a significant challenge to the physical situational awareness for models. The planning task reveals limitations of models in analyzing symmetrical relationships and in implementing the multi-stage symmetry process, with Claude Opus 4.1 achieving the highest planning score at an accuracy of 10\%. The top-performing model, o3, attains a peak performance of 71.6\% on the generalization task, which does not require spatial visualization but transfers spatial data; however, it achieves only 25\% accuracy on text-based prediction tasks.

We study the chemical distance of supercritical Bernoulli percolation on Z^d. Recently, Dembin [Dem22] showed that the chemical distance exhibits sublinear variance, a phenomenon now referred to as superconcentration. In this article, we establish an equivalence between this phenomenon and chaotic behavior of geodesics under small perturbations of the configuration, thereby confirming Chatterjee's general principle relating anomalous fluctuations to chaos in the context of Bernoulli percolation. Our methods rely on a dynamical version of the effective radius, refining the notion first proposed in [CN25], in order to measure the co-influence of a given edge whose weight may be infinite. Together with techniques from the theory of lattice animals, this approach allows us to quantify the total co-influence of edges in terms of the overlap between original and perturbed geodesics.

Single-view place recognition, that we can define as finding an image that corresponds to the same place as a given query image, is a key capability for autonomous navigation and mapping. Although there has been a considerable amount of research in the topic, the high degree of image variability (with viewpoint, illumination or occlusions for example) makes it a research challenge. One of the particular challenges, that we address in this work, is weather variation. Seasonal changes can produce drastic appearance changes, that classic low-level features do not model properly. Our contributions in this paper are twofold. First we pre-process and propose a partition for the Nordland dataset, frequently used for place recognition research without consensus on the partitions. And second, we evaluate several neural network architectures such as pre-trained, siamese and triplet for this problem. Our best results outperform the state of the art of the field. A video showing our results can be found in https://youtu.be/VrlxsYZoHDM. The partitioned version of the Nordland dataset at http://webdiis.unizar.es/~jmfacil/pr-nordland/.

We analyse the robustness of the DESI 2024 cosmological inference from fits to the full shape of the galaxy power spectrum to uncertainties in the Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD) model of the galaxy-halo connection and the choice of priors on nuisance parameters. We assess variations in the recovered cosmological parameters across a range of mocks populated with different HOD models and find that shifts are often greater than 20% of the expected statistical uncertainties from the DESI data. We encapsulate the effect of such shifts in terms of a systematic covariance term, C_{rm HOD}, and an additional diagonal contribution quantifying the impact of our choice of nuisance parameter priors on the ability of the effective field theory (EFT) model to correctly recover the cosmological parameters of the simulations. These two covariance contributions are designed to be added to the usual covariance term, C_{rm stat}, describing the statistical uncertainty in the power spectrum measurement, in order to fairly represent these sources of systematic uncertainty. This approach is more general and robust to choices of model free parameters or additional external datasets used in cosmological fits than the alternative approach of adding systematic uncertainties at the level of the recovered marginalised parameter posteriors. We compare the approaches within the context of a fixed LambdaCDM model and demonstrate that our method gives conservative estimates of the systematic uncertainty that nevertheless have little impact on the final posteriors obtained from DESI data.

Multi-site neuroimaging analysis is fundamentally confounded by scanner-induced covariate shifts, where the marginal distribution of voxel intensities P(x) varies non-linearly across acquisition protocols while the conditional anatomy P(y|x) remains constant. This is particularly detrimental to radiomic reproducibility, where acquisition variance often exceeds biological pathology variance. Existing statistical harmonization methods (e.g., ComBat) operate in feature space, precluding spatial downstream tasks, while standard deep learning approaches are theoretically bounded by local effective receptive fields (ERF), failing to model the global intensity correlations characteristic of field-strength bias. We propose SA-CycleGAN-2.5D, a domain adaptation framework motivated by the HΔH-divergence bound of Ben-David et al., integrating three architectural innovations: (1) A 2.5D tri-planar manifold injection preserving through-plane gradients nabla_z at O(HW) complexity; (2) A U-ResNet generator with dense voxel-to-voxel self-attention, surpassing the O(L) receptive field limit of CNNs to model global scanner field biases; and (3) A spectrally-normalized discriminator constraining the Lipschitz constant (K_D le 1) for stable adversarial optimization. Evaluated on 654 glioma patients across two institutional domains (BraTS and UPenn-GBM), our method reduces Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD) by 99.1% (1.729 to 0.015) and degrades domain classifier accuracy to near-chance (59.7%). Ablation confirms that global attention is statistically essential (Cohen's d = 1.32, p < 0.001) for the harder heterogeneous-to-homogeneous translation direction. By bridging 2D efficiency and 3D consistency, our framework yields voxel-level harmonized images that preserve tumor pathophysiology, enabling reproducible multi-center radiomic analysis.

Vision-language models (VLMs) achieve strong performance on spatial reasoning benchmarks, yet it remains unclear whether this reflects structured 3D understanding or reliance on statistical shortcuts in natural images. We introduce a representation-level analysis framework that constructs minimal contrastive pairs to measure how spatial axes are organized and disentangled within VLM embeddings. Our analysis across multiple model families reveals a consistent vertical-distance entanglement: models conflate vertical image position with distance, mirroring the perspective bias of natural photographs. This bias produces a significant accuracy gap between perspective-consistent and counter-heuristic examples, and intensifies under data scaling even as overall benchmark accuracy improves. We further show that models with similar benchmark scores can exhibit different internal representations, and that these differences predict accuracy and robustness across diverse spatial reasoning benchmarks. To isolate this bias from evaluation-set skew, we introduce SpatialTunnel, a synthetic benchmark designed to expose spatial shortcut biases by removing common correlations present in natural images. Experiments confirm that the entanglement is model-intrinsic, and that models with well-separated spatial axes exhibit greater robustness, suggesting that well-structured spatial representations lead to more reliable spatial reasoning across diverse benchmarks. Code and benchmark are available on the project page: https://cheolhong0916.github.io/whyfarlooksup.github.io/.

Spatial intelligence is essential for agents to move from static semantic understanding toward interacting with the physical world. Many spatial tasks are grounded in continuous visual scenes, where locations, regions, and paths are more naturally expressed by pointing, marking, or drawing than by reporting precise coordinates or discrete textual symbols. Yet existing spatial reasoning benchmarks usually require coordinates, options, or text, creating an answer-interface mismatch for image-generation models. This makes it difficult to evaluate image-generation models under the same task semantics as text-output VLMs, despite their ability to externalize spatial judgments directly in pixel space. We propose ProVisE (Protocolized Visual Evaluation), a benchmark-agnostic framework that elicits protocol-constrained visual answers from image-generation models and parses them into structured predictions compatible with original metrics. ProVisE also includes an Agentic builder that constructs and validates task-specific protocols for new benchmarks. We further introduce SpatialGen-Bench, a curated diagnostic benchmark of 470 samples across 14 spatial subtasks, four capability levels, and diverse answer forms. We evaluate representative text-output VLMs and image-generation models in a unified setting and validate Agentic protocol construction on six external spatial benchmarks. Results show that image-generation models are competitive when spatial answers can be externalized directly in pixel space, while text-output VLMs retain a clear advantage in compositional spatial reasoning. These findings reveal complementary strengths of pixel-space expression and text-based reasoning and establish a metric-compatible testbed for studying spatial cognition in image-generation models.

Monitoring deforestation-driven carbon emissions requires both spatially explicit and temporally continuous estimates of aboveground biomass density (AGBD) with calibrated uncertainty. NASA's Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI) provides reliable LIDAR-derived AGBD, but its orbital sampling causes irregular spatiotemporal coverage, and occasional operational interruptions, including a 13-month hibernation from March 2023 to April 2024, leave extended gaps in the observational record. Prior work has used machine learning approaches to fill GEDI's spatial gaps using satellite-derived features, but temporal interpolation of biomass through unobserved periods, particularly across active disturbance events, remains largely unaddressed. Moreover, standard ensemble methods for biomass mapping have been shown to produce systematically miscalibrated prediction intervals. To address these gaps, we extend the Attentive Neural Process (ANP) framework, previously applied to spatial biomass interpolation, to jointly sparse spatiotemporal settings using geospatial foundation model embeddings. We treat space and time symmetrically, empirically validating a form of space-for-time substitution in which observations from nearby locations at other times inform predictions at held-out periods. Our results demonstrate that the ANP produces well-calibrated uncertainty estimates across disturbance regimes, supporting its use in Measurement, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) applications that require reliable uncertainty quantification for forest carbon accounting.

A stochastic gravitational wave background causes the apparent positions of distant sources to fluctuate, with angular deflections of order the characteristic strain amplitude of the gravitational waves. These fluctuations may be detectable with high precision astrometry, as first suggested by Braginsky et al. in 1990. Several researchers have made order of magnitude estimates of the upper limits obtainable on the gravitational wave spectrum \Omega_gw(f), at frequencies of order f ~ 1 yr^-1, both for the future space-based optical interferometry missions GAIA and SIM, and for VLBI interferometry in radio wavelengths with the SKA. For GAIA, tracking N ~ 10^6 quasars over a time of T ~ 1 yr with an angular accuracy of \Delta \theta ~ 10 \mu as would yield a sensitivity level of \Omega_gw ~ (\Delta \theta)^2/(N T^2 H_0^2) ~ 10^-6, which would be comparable with pulsar timing. In this paper we take a first step toward firming up these estimates by computing in detail the statistical properties of the angular deflections caused by a stochastic background. We compute analytically the two point correlation function of the deflections on the sphere, and the spectrum as a function of frequency and angular scale. The fluctuations are concentrated at low frequencies (for a scale invariant stochastic background), and at large angular scales, starting with the quadrupole. The magnetic-type and electric-type pieces of the fluctuations have equal amounts of power.

Evaluating whether text-to-image models follow explicit spatial instructions is difficult to automate. Object detectors may miss targets or return multiple plausible detections, and simple geometric tests can become ambiguous in borderline cases. Spatial evaluation is naturally a selective prediction problem, the checker may abstain when evidence is weak and report confidence so that results can be interpreted as a risk coverage tradeoff rather than a single score. We introduce SpatialBench-UC, a small, reproducible benchmark for pairwise spatial relations. The benchmark contains 200 prompts (50 object pairs times 4 relations) grouped into 100 counterfactual pairs obtained by swapping object roles. We release a benchmark package, versioned prompts, pinned configs, per-sample checker outputs, and report tables, enabling reproducible and auditable comparisons across models. We also include a lightweight human audit used to calibrate the checker's abstention margin and confidence threshold. We evaluate three baselines, Stable Diffusion 1.5, SD 1.5 BoxDiff, and SD 1.4 GLIGEN. The checker reports pass rate and coverage as well as conditional pass rates on decided samples. The results show that grounding methods substantially improve both pass rate and coverage, while abstention remains a dominant factor due mainly to missing detections.

Visual Autoregressive (VAR) models have recently garnered significant attention for their innovative next-scale prediction paradigm, offering notable advantages in both inference efficiency and image quality compared to traditional multi-step autoregressive (AR) and diffusion models. However, despite their efficiency, VAR models often suffer from the diversity collapse i.e., a reduction in output variability, analogous to that observed in few-step distilled diffusion models. In this paper, we introduce DiverseVAR, a simple yet effective approach that restores the generative diversity of VAR models without requiring any additional training. Our analysis reveals the pivotal component of the feature map as a key factor governing diversity formation at early scales. By suppressing the pivotal component in the model input and amplifying it in the model output, DiverseVAR effectively unlocks the inherent generative potential of VAR models while preserving high-fidelity synthesis. Empirical results demonstrate that our approach substantially enhances generative diversity with only neglectable performance influences. Our code will be publicly released at https://github.com/wangtong627/DiverseVAR.

Recent innovations on hardware (e.g. Nvidia A100) have motivated learning N:M structured sparsity masks from scratch for fast model inference. However, state-of-the-art learning recipes in this regime (e.g. SR-STE) are proposed for non-adaptive optimizers like momentum SGD, while incurring non-trivial accuracy drop for Adam-trained models like attention-based LLMs. In this paper, we first demonstrate such gap origins from poorly estimated second moment (i.e. variance) in Adam states given by the masked weights. We conjecture that learning N:M masks with Adam should take the critical regime of variance estimation into account. In light of this, we propose STEP, an Adam-aware recipe that learns N:M masks with two phases: first, STEP calculates a reliable variance estimate (precondition phase) and subsequently, the variance remains fixed and is used as a precondition to learn N:M masks (mask-learning phase). STEP automatically identifies the switching point of two phases by dynamically sampling variance changes over the training trajectory and testing the sample concentration. Empirically, we evaluate STEP and other baselines such as ASP and SR-STE on multiple tasks including CIFAR classification, machine translation and LLM fine-tuning (BERT-Base, GPT-2). We show STEP mitigates the accuracy drop of baseline recipes and is robust to aggressive structured sparsity ratios.

Modelling individual decision-making during infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for understanding behavioural dynamics and informing effective public health interventions. Prior work has shown that large language models can simulate realistic human behaviour by generating agent decisions based on demographic prompts and situational context. We build on this foundation with a spatially grounded, agent-based simulation framework that integrates LLM-generated decisions about self-reported influenza-like illness into a census-based synthetic population of agents. Location is treated as a central feature: agents are assigned to spatial units within cities, capturing the spatial distributions of different demographic groups using real-world census data and enabling geographically diverse behavioural modelling. We implement and compare three decision scenarios, independent reasoning, household influence, and message framing, and simulate self-reporting outcomes in San Francisco and Atlanta. Results reveal that income and education are the dominant drivers of reporting rate variation, with smaller but consistent effects from geography, LLM model choice, and message framing. Our framework generates synthetic data that captures both social and geographic heterogeneity, supporting spatial epidemiological modelling and bias-aware behavioural analysis.

Spatial intelligence is essential for multimodal large language models, yet current benchmarks largely assess it only from an understanding perspective. We ask whether modern generative or unified multimodal models also possess generative spatial intelligence (GSI), the ability to respect and manipulate 3D spatial constraints during image generation, and whether such capability can be measured or improved. We introduce GSI-Bench, the first benchmark designed to quantify GSI through spatially grounded image editing. It consists of two complementary components: GSI-Real, a high-quality real-world dataset built via a 3D-prior-guided generation and filtering pipeline, and GSI-Syn, a large-scale synthetic benchmark with controllable spatial operations and fully automated labeling. Together with a unified evaluation protocol, GSI-Bench enables scalable, model-agnostic assessment of spatial compliance and editing fidelity. Experiments show that fine-tuning unified multimodal models on GSI-Syn yields substantial gains on both synthetic and real tasks and, strikingly, also improves downstream spatial understanding. This provides the first clear evidence that generative training can tangibly strengthen spatial reasoning, establishing a new pathway for advancing spatial intelligence in multimodal models.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are transforming the forecasting paradigm through large-scale cross-domain pretraining. However, most existing TSFMs remain univariate, and recent efforts to enable cross-variate modeling still operate directly within the raw variate space. This design introduces fundamental limitations in semantic alignment and relational expressivity. Specifically, raw-space group mixing lacks a dedicated mechanism to align heterogeneous physical quantities, while standard non-negative attention fails to capture the complex synergistic and antagonistic interactions ubiquitous in real-world systems. To address these challenges, we propose Falcon-X, decouples variates from the raw space and maps them into a unified latent prototype space. Falcon-X employs a Unified Prototype Diff-Attention mechanism that explicitly evaluates both positive and negative semantic affinities to explicitly align heterogeneous variates. Cross-variate interactions are then efficiently performed within this shared space via Latent Entity Attention, naturally facilitating zero-shot structural transfer. Finally, a Variate Reassembly Router robustly reconstructs variate-specific trajectories via a request-and-dispatch mechanism. Extensive evaluations on the GIFT-Eval and fev-bench benchmarks demonstrate that Falcon-X achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance, offering a principled and scalable paradigm for complex multivariate environments. Falcon-X is publicly released to support future research.