Daily Papers

Much of the variation in financial time series is driven by market-wide shocks that cannot be predicted from an asset's own history. Per-asset self-supervised learning treats this variation as irreducible noise. Under a latent factor model, we show that conditioning prediction on the realized market factor makes the asset's market exposure necessary for optimal prediction, while reducing the noise against which the asset-specific component is learned. Building on this insight, we introduce Market-Conditioned JEPA (MC-JEPA), a joint-embedding predictive architecture for financial time series. During training, we construct a leave-one-out market condition for each asset from the future target embeddings of other assets and incorporate it through factor loadings derived from the asset's own representation. On 11 years of minute-level Chinese A-share data, MC-JEPA improves over per-asset JEPA across nine targets spanning returns, market exposure, risk, and liquidity, with the strongest and most statistically significant gains in exposure, risk, and liquidity. It achieves the best RankIC on all liquidity targets and on return horizons from two hours to five days, outperforming time-series foundation models and self-supervised baselines, and delivers the best portfolio performance in a historical backtest. Ablations show that the return and exposure gains require the condition to be aligned with the realized market movement. After restoring the volatility scale removed by normalization, the predictor's factor loadings rank stocks by market beta nearly as well as a supervised probe, without labels. A synthetic factor-model study with known parameters shows that conditioning improves the recovery of both market exposure and the asset-specific component.

Real-world decision-making, from tax compliance assessment to medical diagnosis, requires aggregating multiple noisy and potentially contradictory evidence sources. Existing approaches either lack explicit uncertainty quantification (neural aggregation methods) or rely on manually engineered discrete predicates (probabilistic logic frameworks), limiting scalability to unstructured data. We introduce Latent Posterior Factors (LPF), a framework that transforms Variational Autoencoder (VAE) latent posteriors into soft likelihood factors for Sum-Product Network (SPN) inference, enabling tractable probabilistic reasoning over unstructured evidence while preserving calibrated uncertainty estimates. We instantiate LPF as LPF-SPN (structured factor-based inference) and LPF-Learned (end-to-end learned aggregation), enabling a principled comparison between explicit probabilistic reasoning and learned aggregation under a shared uncertainty representation. Across eight domains (seven synthetic and the FEVER benchmark), LPF-SPN achieves high accuracy (up to 97.8%), low calibration error (ECE 1.4%), and strong probabilistic fit, substantially outperforming evidential deep learning, LLMs and graph-based baselines over 15 random seeds. Contributions: (1) A framework bridging latent uncertainty representations with structured probabilistic reasoning. (2) Dual architectures enabling controlled comparison of reasoning paradigms. (3) Reproducible training methodology with seed selection. (4) Evaluation against EDL, BERT, R-GCN, and large language model baselines. (5) Cross-domain validation. (6) Formal guarantees in a companion paper.

We introduce MACROCAST, a lightweight Time Series Foundation Model (TSFM) for real-time macroeconomic forecasting. Existing TSFMs suffer from data leakage in two forms: temporal contamination, as the model may have seen the realized values of the series it forecasts, and revision bias, as training on fully revised data diverges from the preliminary, vintage-specific releases available to real-time forecasters. MACROCAST is, to our knowledge, the first TSFM that rules out both forms of leakage entirely: at no stage of training is the model exposed to information that would not have been available to a forecaster in real time. We train MACROCAST first on purely synthetic time series in approximately one GPU-day and then fine-tune it on synthetic time series drawn from Bayesian VARs, dynamic factor models, and ARIMA specifications estimated on vintage-specific ALFRED data. Because pretraining uses only simulated data and fine-tuning uses only real-time vintages, no observed future or revised value ever enters the model; each fine-tuning run takes nine minutes. Evaluated on the FRED-MD database in a genuine real-time out-of-sample exercise, MACROCAST improves on the AR(1) benchmark for roughly 80% of series-horizon pairs, matches or surpasses Chronos-2 -- the strongest currently available TSFM -- and outperforms the Bayesian VAR and dynamic factor model benchmarks, all in a data-leakage-free manner.

Pedestrian intention prediction is crucial for autonomous driving. In particular, knowing if pedestrians are going to cross in front of the ego-vehicle is core to performing safe and comfortable maneuvers. Creating accurate and fast models that predict such intentions from sequential images is challenging. A factor contributing to this is the lack of datasets with diverse crossing and non-crossing (C/NC) scenarios. We address this scarceness by introducing a framework, named ARCANE, which allows programmatically generating synthetic datasets consisting of C/NC video clip samples. As an example, we use ARCANE to generate a large and diverse dataset named PedSynth. We will show how PedSynth complements widely used real-world datasets such as JAAD and PIE, so enabling more accurate models for C/NC prediction. Considering the onboard deployment of C/NC prediction models, we also propose a deep model named PedGNN, which is fast and has a very low memory footprint. PedGNN is based on a GNN-GRU architecture that takes a sequence of pedestrian skeletons as input to predict crossing intentions.

Kamon (family crests) are an important part of Japanese culture and a natural test case for compositional visual recognition: each crest combines a small number of symbolic choices, but the space of possible descriptions is sparse. We introduce KamonBench, a grammar-based image-to-structure benchmark with 20,000 synthetic composite crests and auxiliary component examples. Each composite crest is paired with a formal kamon description language - "kamon yōgo" - description, a segmented Japanese analysis, an English translation, and a non-linguistic program code. Because each synthetic crest is generated from known factors, namely container, modifier, and motif, KamonBench supports evaluation beyond caption-level accuracy: direct program-code factor metrics, controlled factor-pair recombination splits, counterfactual motif-sensitivity groups under fixed container-modifier contexts, and linear probes of factor accessibility. We include baseline results for a ViT encoder/Transformer decoder and two VGG n-gram decoders, with and without learned positional masks. KamonBench therefore provides a controlled testbed for sparse compositional visual recognition and factor recovery in vision-language models.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems face significant performance gaps when applied to technical domains requiring precise information extraction from complex documents. Current evaluation methodologies relying on document-level metrics inadequately capture token-resolution retrieval accuracy that is critical for domain-related documents. We propose a framework combining granular evaluation metrics with synthetic data generation to optimize domain-specific RAG performance. First, we introduce token-aware metrics Precision Omega and Intersection-over-Union (IoU) that quantify context preservation versus information density trade-offs inherent in technical texts. Second, we develop a reasoning model-driven pipeline using instruction-tuned LLMs (DeepSeek-R1, DeepSeek-R1 distilled variants, and Phi-4) to generate context-anchored QA pairs with discontinuous reference spans across three specialized corpora: SEC 10-K filings (finance), biomedical abstracts (PubMed), and APT threat reports (cybersecurity). Our empirical analysis reveals critical insights: smaller chunks (less than 10 tokens) improve precision by 31-42% (IoU = 0.071 vs. baseline 0.053) at recall costs (-18%), while domain-specific embedding strategies yield 22% variance in optimal chunk sizing (5-20 tokens). The DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Qwen-32B model demonstrates superior concept alignment (+14% mean IoU over alternatives), though no configuration universally dominates. Financial texts favor larger chunks for risk factor coverage (Recall = 0.81 at size = 20), whereas cybersecurity content benefits from atomic segmentation, Precision Omega = 0.28 at size = 5. Our code is available on https://github.com/aryan-jadon/Synthetic-Data-Generation-and-Evaluation-using-Reasoning-Model

Generating synthetic datasets for training face recognition models is challenging because dataset generation entails more than creating high fidelity images. It involves generating multiple images of same subjects under different factors (e.g., variations in pose, illumination, expression, aging and occlusion) which follows the real image conditional distribution. Previous works have studied the generation of synthetic datasets using GAN or 3D models. In this work, we approach the problem from the aspect of combining subject appearance (ID) and external factor (style) conditions. These two conditions provide a direct way to control the inter-class and intra-class variations. To this end, we propose a Dual Condition Face Generator (DCFace) based on a diffusion model. Our novel Patch-wise style extractor and Time-step dependent ID loss enables DCFace to consistently produce face images of the same subject under different styles with precise control. Face recognition models trained on synthetic images from the proposed DCFace provide higher verification accuracies compared to previous works by 6.11% on average in 4 out of 5 test datasets, LFW, CFP-FP, CPLFW, AgeDB and CALFW. Code is available at https://github.com/mk-minchul/dcface

Training large language models (LLMs) with synthetic reasoning data has become a popular approach to enhancing their reasoning capabilities, while a key factor influencing the effectiveness of this paradigm is the quality of the generated multi-step reasoning data. To generate high-quality reasoning data, many recent methods generate synthetic reasoning paths and filter them based on final answer correctness, often overlooking flaws in intermediate reasoning steps. To enhance the verification of intermediate reasoning steps, prior work primarily resorts to code execution or symbolic reasoning engines. However, code-based validation is restricted to code or mathematical tasks, and reasoning engines require a well-structured and complete context. As a result, existing methods fail to function effectively in natural language reasoning tasks that involve ambiguous or incomplete contexts. In these tasks, synthetic data still lack reliable checks for verifying each reasoning step. To address this challenge, we introduce ORACLE, a structured data generation framework inspired by syllogistic reasoning. ORACLE integrates the generative strengths of LLMs with symbolic supervision: the LLM produces step-wise reasoning contexts, while a symbolic reasoning engine verifies the validity of each intermediate step. By employing a unified prompting template to elicit modular reasoning chains, ORACLE enables fine-grained, step-level validation, facilitating the construction of high-quality multi-step reasoning data. Across six logical, factual, and commonsense reasoning benchmarks, our ORACLE consistently outperforms strong baselines on multiple models.

We introduce a sophisticated multi-speaker speech data simulator, specifically engineered to generate multi-speaker speech recordings. A notable feature of this simulator is its capacity to modulate the distribution of silence and overlap via the adjustment of statistical parameters. This capability offers a tailored training environment for developing neural models suited for speaker diarization and voice activity detection. The acquisition of substantial datasets for speaker diarization often presents a significant challenge, particularly in multi-speaker scenarios. Furthermore, the precise time stamp annotation of speech data is a critical factor for training both speaker diarization and voice activity detection. Our proposed multi-speaker simulator tackles these problems by generating large-scale audio mixtures that maintain statistical properties closely aligned with the input parameters. We demonstrate that the proposed multi-speaker simulator generates audio mixtures with statistical properties that closely align with the input parameters derived from real-world statistics. Additionally, we present the effectiveness of speaker diarization and voice activity detection models, which have been trained exclusively on the generated simulated datasets.

Large language models (LLMs) have enabled a range of applications in zero-shot and few-shot learning settings, including the generation of synthetic datasets for training and testing. However, to reliably use these synthetic datasets, it is essential to understand how representative they are of real-world data. We investigate this by assessing the effectiveness of generating synthetic data through LLM and using it as a benchmark for various NLP tasks. Our experiments across six datasets, and three different tasks, show that while synthetic data can effectively capture performance of various methods for simpler tasks, such as intent classification, it falls short for more complex tasks like named entity recognition. Additionally, we propose a new metric called the bias factor, which evaluates the biases introduced when the same LLM is used to both generate benchmarking data and to perform the tasks. We find that smaller LLMs exhibit biases towards their own generated data, whereas larger models do not. Overall, our findings suggest that the effectiveness of synthetic data as a benchmark varies depending on the task, and that practitioners should rely on data generated from multiple larger models whenever possible.

Language model (LLM) post-training, from DPO to distillation, can refine behaviors and unlock new skills, but the open science supporting these post-training techniques is still in its infancy. One limiting factor has been the difficulty of conducting large-scale comparative analyses of synthetic data generating models and LLM judges. To close this gap, we introduce WILDCHAT-50M, the largest public chat dataset to date. We extend the existing WildChat dataset to include responses not only from GPT, but from over 50 different open-weight models, ranging in size from 0.5B to 104B parameters. We conduct an extensive comparative analysis and demonstrate the potential of this dataset by creating RE-WILD, our own public SFT mix, which outperforms the recent Tulu-3 SFT mixture from Allen AI with only 40% as many samples. Our dataset, samples and code are available at https://github.com/penfever/wildchat-50m.

We propose algorithms for approximate filtering and smoothing in high-dimensional Factorial hidden Markov models. The approximation involves discarding, in a principled way, likelihood factors according to a notion of locality in a factor graph associated with the emission distribution. This allows the exponential-in-dimension cost of exact filtering and smoothing to be avoided. We prove that the approximation accuracy, measured in a local total variation norm, is "dimension-free" in the sense that as the overall dimension of the model increases the error bounds we derive do not necessarily degrade. A key step in the analysis is to quantify the error introduced by localizing the likelihood function in a Bayes' rule update. The factorial structure of the likelihood function which we exploit arises naturally when data have known spatial or network structure. We demonstrate the new algorithms on synthetic examples and a London Underground passenger flow problem, where the factor graph is effectively given by the train network.

Recent advances in discriminative and generative pretraining have yielded geometry estimation models with strong generalization capabilities. While discriminative monocular geometry estimation methods rely on large-scale fine-tuning data to achieve zero-shot generalization, several generative-based paradigms show the potential of achieving impressive generalization performance on unseen scenes by leveraging pre-trained diffusion models and fine-tuning on even a small scale of synthetic training data. Frustratingly, these models are trained with different recipes on different datasets, making it hard to find out the critical factors that determine the evaluation performance. Besides, current geometry evaluation benchmarks have two main drawbacks that may prevent the development of the field, i.e., limited scene diversity and unfavorable label quality. To resolve the above issues, (1) we build fair and strong baselines in a unified codebase for evaluating and analyzing the geometry estimation models; (2) we evaluate monocular geometry estimators on more challenging benchmarks for geometry estimation task with diverse scenes and high-quality annotations. Our results reveal that pre-trained using large data, discriminative models such as DINOv2, can outperform generative counterparts with a small amount of high-quality synthetic data under the same training configuration, which suggests that fine-tuning data quality is a more important factor than the data scale and model architecture. Our observation also raises a question: if simply fine-tuning a general vision model such as DINOv2 using a small amount of synthetic depth data produces SOTA results, do we really need complex generative models for depth estimation? We believe this work can propel advancements in geometry estimation tasks as well as a wide range of downstream applications.

The collection and curation of high-quality training data is crucial for developing text classification models with superior performance, but it is often associated with significant costs and time investment. Researchers have recently explored using large language models (LLMs) to generate synthetic datasets as an alternative approach. However, the effectiveness of the LLM-generated synthetic data in supporting model training is inconsistent across different classification tasks. To better understand factors that moderate the effectiveness of the LLM-generated synthetic data, in this study, we look into how the performance of models trained on these synthetic data may vary with the subjectivity of classification. Our results indicate that subjectivity, at both the task level and instance level, is negatively associated with the performance of the model trained on synthetic data. We conclude by discussing the implications of our work on the potential and limitations of leveraging LLM for synthetic data generation.

Recent significant advances in text-to-image models unlock the possibility of training vision systems using synthetic images, potentially overcoming the difficulty of collecting curated data at scale. It is unclear, however, how these models behave at scale, as more synthetic data is added to the training set. In this paper we study the scaling laws of synthetic images generated by state of the art text-to-image models, for the training of supervised models: image classifiers with label supervision, and CLIP with language supervision. We identify several factors, including text prompts, classifier-free guidance scale, and types of text-to-image models, that significantly affect scaling behavior. After tuning these factors, we observe that synthetic images demonstrate a scaling trend similar to, but slightly less effective than, real images in CLIP training, while they significantly underperform in scaling when training supervised image classifiers. Our analysis indicates that the main reason for this underperformance is the inability of off-the-shelf text-to-image models to generate certain concepts, a limitation that significantly impairs the training of image classifiers. Our findings also suggest that scaling synthetic data can be particularly effective in scenarios such as: (1) when there is a limited supply of real images for a supervised problem (e.g., fewer than 0.5 million images in ImageNet), (2) when the evaluation dataset diverges significantly from the training data, indicating the out-of-distribution scenario, or (3) when synthetic data is used in conjunction with real images, as demonstrated in the training of CLIP models.

Given the increasing use of synthetic data in language model (LM) post-training, an LM's ability to generate high-quality data has become nearly as crucial as its ability to solve problems directly. While prior works have focused on developing effective data generation methods, they lack systematic comparison of different LMs as data generators in a unified setting. To address this gap, we propose AgoraBench, a benchmark that provides standardized settings and metrics to evaluate LMs' data generation abilities. Through synthesizing 1.26 million training instances using 6 LMs and training 99 student models, we uncover key insights about LMs' data generation capabilities. First, we observe that LMs exhibit distinct strengths. For instance, GPT-4o excels at generating new problems, while Claude-3.5-Sonnet performs better at enhancing existing ones. Furthermore, our analysis reveals that an LM's data generation ability doesn't necessarily correlate with its problem-solving ability. Instead, multiple intrinsic features of data quality-including response quality, perplexity, and instruction difficulty-collectively serve as better indicators. Finally, we demonstrate that strategic choices in output format and cost-conscious model selection significantly impact data generation effectiveness.

Detecting and localizing leaks in water distribution network systems is an important topic with direct environmental, economic, and social impact. Our paper is the first to explore the use of factor graph optimization techniques for leak localization in water distribution networks, enabling us to perform sensor fusion between pressure and demand sensor readings and to estimate the network's temporal and structural state evolution across all network nodes. The methodology introduces specific water network factors and proposes a new architecture composed of two factor graphs: a leak-free state estimation factor graph and a leak localization factor graph. When a new sensor reading is obtained, unlike Kalman and other interpolation-based methods, which estimate only the current network state, factor graphs update both current and past states. Results on Modena, L-TOWN and synthetic networks show that factor graphs are much faster than nonlinear Kalman-based alternatives such as the UKF, while also providing improvements in localization compared to state-of-the-art estimation-localization approaches. Implementation and benchmarks are available at https://github.com/pirofti/FGLL.

Fair graph clustering seeks partitions that respect network structure while maintaining proportional representation across sensitive groups, with applications spanning community detection, team formation, resource allocation, and social network analysis. Many existing approaches enforce rigid constraints or rely on multi-stage pipelines (e.g., spectral embedding followed by k-means), limiting trade-off control, interpretability, and scalability. We introduce DFNMF, an end-to-end deep nonnegative tri-factorization tailored to graphs that directly optimizes cluster assignments with a soft statistical-parity regularizer. A single parameter lambda tunes the fairness--utility balance, while nonnegativity yields parts-based factors and transparent soft memberships. The optimization uses sparse-friendly alternating updates and scales near-linearly with the number of edges. Across synthetic and real networks, DFNMF achieves substantially higher group balance at comparable modularity, often dominating state-of-the-art baselines on the Pareto front. The code is available at https://github.com/SiamakGhodsi/DFNMF.git.

We investigate what makes synthetic OCR supervision transfer to real Thai documents and use the resulting insights to build Wayu-Paxa-OCR-Zero, a Thai OCR model adapted without OCR labels from real Thai document pages. Synthetic data provide exact labels at scale, but "realism" conflates source domain, page context, typography, spatial structure, and glyph variation. We disentangle these factors with a controlled document-reconstruction pipeline and evaluate each variant under page- and crop-level training on printed and handwritten Thai documents. Non-text context has little consistent effect, whereas typeface diversity, two-dimensional structure, and real handwriting glyphs improve transfer; moreover, source-domain matching depends on training granularity, with in-domain reconstruction approaching real printed supervision under page-level training (1.82% versus 1.31% median character error rate) but underperforming out-of-domain reconstruction under crop-level training (15.59% versus 5.52%). Guided by these findings, we adapt the 0.9B-parameter PaddleOCR-VL-1.6 into Wayu-Paxa-OCR-Zero using 45,723 synthetic pages: relative to its base checkpoint, it reduces median character error rate from 6.64% to 1.24% on printed pages and from 74.87% to 20.55% on handwriting and outperforms Typhoon OCR v1 7B on all five evaluation sets, showing that synthetic-only training can be competitive.

Recent advancements in large language models (LLMs) with extended context windows have significantly improved tasks such as information extraction, question answering, and complex planning scenarios. In order to achieve success in long context tasks, a large amount of work has been done to enhance the long context capabilities of the model through synthetic data. Existing methods typically utilize the Self-Instruct framework to generate instruction tuning data for better long context capability improvement. However, our preliminary experiments indicate that less than 35% of generated samples are multi-hop, and more than 40% exhibit poor quality, limiting comprehensive understanding and further research. To improve the quality of synthetic data, we propose the Multi-agent Interactive Multi-hop Generation (MIMG) framework, incorporating a Quality Verification Agent, a Single-hop Question Generation Agent, a Multiple Question Sampling Strategy, and a Multi-hop Question Merger Agent. This framework improves the data quality, with the proportion of high-quality, multi-hop, and diverse data exceeding 85%. Furthermore, we systematically investigate strategies for document selection, question merging, and validation techniques through extensive experiments across various models. Our findings show that our synthetic high-quality long-context instruction data significantly enhances model performance, even surpassing models trained on larger amounts of human-annotated data. Our code is available at: https://github.com/WowCZ/LongMIT.

We present a new estimator for causal effects with panel data that builds on insights behind the widely used difference in differences and synthetic control methods. Relative to these methods we find, both theoretically and empirically, that this "synthetic difference in differences" estimator has desirable robustness properties, and that it performs well in settings where the conventional estimators are commonly used in practice. We study the asymptotic behavior of the estimator when the systematic part of the outcome model includes latent unit factors interacted with latent time factors, and we present conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality.

We present Sleeping-DISCO 9M, a large-scale pre-training dataset for music and song. To the best of our knowledge, there are no open-source high-quality dataset representing popular and well-known songs for generative music modeling tasks such as text-music, music-captioning, singing-voice synthesis, melody reconstruction and cross-model retrieval. Past contributions focused on isolated and constrained factors whose core perspective was to create synthetic or re-recorded music corpus (e.g. GTSinger, M4Singer) and arbitrarily large-scale audio datasets (e.g. DISCO-10M and LAIONDISCO-12M) had been another focus for the community. Unfortunately, adoption of these datasets has been below substantial in the generative music community as these datasets fail to reflect real-world music and its flavour. Our dataset changes this narrative and provides a dataset that is constructed using actual popular music and world-renowned artists.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated strong capabilities in programming and mathematical reasoning tasks, but are constrained by limited high-quality training data. Synthetic data can be leveraged to enhance fine-tuning outcomes, but several factors influence this process, including model size, synthetic data volume, pruning strategy, and number of fine-tuning rounds. We explore these axes and investigate which conditions enable model self-improvement. We introduce the Think, Prune, Train process, a scalable framework that iteratively fine-tunes models on their own reasoning traces, using ground-truth pruning to ensure high-quality training data. This approach yields improved performance: on GSM8K, Gemma2-2B achieves a Pass@1 of 57.6% (from 41.9%), Gemma2-9B reaches 82%, matching LLaMA-3.1-70B, and LLaMA-3.1-70B attains 91%, even surpassing GPT-4o, demonstrating the effectiveness of self-generated reasoning and systematic data selection for improving LLM capabilities.

Foundation models have become increasingly popular for forecasting due to their ability to provide predictions without requiring a lot of training data. In this work, we demonstrate how TabPFN-v2, a general tabular foundation model, can be effectively applied to time series forecasting. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method that combines TabPFN-v2 with lightweight feature engineering to enable both point and probabilistic forecasting. Despite its simplicity and compact size (11M parameters), TabPFN-TS achieves top rank on the public GIFT-Eval leaderboard in both forecasting tasks. Through ablation studies, we investigate factors contributing to this surprising effectiveness, especially considering TabPFN-v2 was pretrained solely on synthetic tabular data with no exposure to time series. Our results highlights the potential of tabular foundation models like TabPFN-v2 as a valuable new approach for time series forecasting. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/PriorLabs/tabpfn-time-series.

Practitioners make three prompt-design decisions with almost no controlled evidence behind them: how to format instructions and context (markdown, plain text, prose, or tabular), how many simultaneous instructions a system prompt can carry before compliance degrades, and how much context a model can hold before recall and honesty degrade. We report two controlled experiments crossing all three factors on one held, contamination-free synthetic corpus (the "Book of Veyra," 8,780 uniquely-named entities, deterministically regenerable from a fixed seed), evaluated across five models. Experiment 1 (960 calls/model) measures instruction-following decay as rule count N grows from 10 to 160, crossed with four formats and system-prompt vs. user-turn placement. Perfect-response rate collapses to zero by N=80 for every model, format, and placement. Placement produces effects at least as large as format at N=160 in most models, but the direction is model-specific. No model shows a reliable markdown advantage; one 35B model favors plain text instead. Experiment 2 (5,520 calls/model) measures recall accuracy, false-premise sycophancy, and absent-fact fabrication across a 2k-to-512k-token context ladder in the same four formats. Recall stays near ceiling through 64-128k tokens, then degrades sharply and format-dependently: one model's accuracy spread reaches 48 points at 128k tokens. Fabrication never occurs (0/5,760 probes), and sycophancy stays negligible (<=8.3%). What rises sharply near each model's context ceiling is outright refusal to answer (0% to 79-90%), distinct from sycophancy or fabrication. Neither pre-registered format ordering holds, and token overhead (+22% to +37% over plain text) further changes which format is preferable where accuracy spread is genuine. We release the full harness, corpus generator, and raw results (VeyraBench): https://github.com/iNetanel/veyrabench

Synthetic data is a standard component in training large language models, yet systematic comparisons across design dimensions, including rephrasing strategy, generator model, and source data, remain absent. We conduct extensive controlled experiments, generating over one trillion tokens, to identify critical factors in rephrasing web text into synthetic pretraining data. Our results reveal that structured output formats, such as tables, math problems, FAQs, and tutorials, consistently outperform both curated web baselines and prior synthetic methods. Notably, increasing the size of the generator model beyond 1B parameters provides no additional benefit. Our analysis also demonstrates that the selection of the original data used for mixing substantially influences performance. By applying our findings, we develop \textsc{FinePhrase}, a 486-billion-token open dataset of rephrased web text. We show that FinePhrase outperforms all existing synthetic data baselines while reducing generation costs by up to 30 times. We provide the dataset, all prompts, and the generation framework to the research community.

Recent advances in speech recognition and translation rely on hundreds of thousands of hours of Internet speech data. We argue that state-of-the art accuracy can be reached without relying on web-scale data. Canary - multilingual ASR and speech translation model, outperforms current state-of-the-art models - Whisper, OWSM, and Seamless-M4T on English, French, Spanish, and German languages, while being trained on an order of magnitude less data than these models. Three key factors enables such data-efficient model: (1) a FastConformer-based attention encoder-decoder architecture (2) training on synthetic data generated with machine translation and (3) advanced training techniques: data-balancing, dynamic data blending, dynamic bucketing and noise-robust fine-tuning. The model, weights, and training code will be open-sourced.

We present the surprising finding that a language model's reasoning capabilities can be improved by training on synthetic datasets of chain-of-thought (CoT) traces from more capable models, even when all of those traces lead to an incorrect final answer. Our experiments show this approach can yield better performance on reasoning tasks than training on human-annotated datasets. We hypothesize that two key factors explain this phenomenon: first, the distribution of synthetic data is inherently closer to the language model's own distribution, making it more amenable to learning. Second, these `incorrect' traces are often only partially flawed and contain valid reasoning steps from which the model can learn. To further test the first hypothesis, we use a language model to paraphrase human-annotated traces -- shifting their distribution closer to the model's own distribution -- and show that this improves performance. For the second hypothesis, we introduce increasingly flawed CoT traces and study to what extent models are tolerant to these flaws. We demonstrate our findings across various reasoning domains like math, algorithmic reasoning and code generation using MATH, GSM8K, Countdown and MBPP datasets on various language models ranging from 1.5B to 9B across Qwen, Llama, and Gemma models. Our study shows that curating datasets that are closer to the model's distribution is a critical aspect to consider. We also show that a correct final answer is not always a reliable indicator of a faithful reasoning process.

A Mamba state-space model trained only for next-step prediction appears to recover Granger-causal structure through a simple readout S = |W_{out} W_{in}|, with early experiments suggesting the phenomenon generalized across architectures and benefited from interventional data at p < 10^{-5}. We package the protocol used to test that claim -- standardized synthetic generators (VAR/Lorenz/CauseMe-style), three intervention semantics (do(X=c), soft-noise, random-forcing), edge-provenance cards on three real datasets, and size-matched control arms -- as a reusable falsification benchmark, and walk the claim through it in five stages. The method-level claim does not survive: (i) a plain linear bottleneck does as well or better; (ii) tuned Lasso beats the bottleneck on synthetic CauseMe-style benchmarks, and on Lorenz-96 (the only real benchmark with unambiguous ground truth) classical PCMCI and Granger lead a tight cluster in which the bottleneck trails; (iii) the headline intervention advantage is roughly 60% a sample-size confound, and the residual disappears under standard do(X=c) interventions, surviving only under a non-standard random-forcing scheme; (iv) even that residual reproduces, with a larger effect, in classical bivariate Granger -- the effect is method-agnostic. What survives is a narrow characterization result; the benchmark is the lasting artifact, and each stage above is one of its control arms.

Privacy attacks on Machine Learning (ML) models often focus on inferring the existence of particular data points in the training data. However, what the adversary really wants to know is if a particular individual's (subject's) data was included during training. In such scenarios, the adversary is more likely to have access to the distribution of a particular subject than actual records. Furthermore, in settings like cross-silo Federated Learning (FL), a subject's data can be embodied by multiple data records that are spread across multiple organizations. Nearly all of the existing private FL literature is dedicated to studying privacy at two granularities -- item-level (individual data records), and user-level (participating user in the federation), neither of which apply to data subjects in cross-silo FL. This insight motivates us to shift our attention from the privacy of data records to the privacy of data subjects, also known as subject-level privacy. We propose two novel black-box attacks for subject membership inference, of which one assumes access to a model after each training round. Using these attacks, we estimate subject membership inference risk on real-world data for single-party models as well as FL scenarios. We find our attacks to be extremely potent, even without access to exact training records, and using the knowledge of membership for a handful of subjects. To better understand the various factors that may influence subject privacy risk in cross-silo FL settings, we systematically generate several hundred synthetic federation configurations, varying properties of the data, model design and training, and the federation itself. Finally, we investigate the effectiveness of Differential Privacy in mitigating this threat.

In this paper, we study the problem of unsupervised object segmentation from single images. We do not introduce a new algorithm, but systematically investigate the effectiveness of existing unsupervised models on challenging real-world images. We firstly introduce four complexity factors to quantitatively measure the distributions of object- and scene-level biases in appearance and geometry for datasets with human annotations. With the aid of these factors, we empirically find that, not surprisingly, existing unsupervised models catastrophically fail to segment generic objects in real-world images, although they can easily achieve excellent performance on numerous simple synthetic datasets, due to the vast gap in objectness biases between synthetic and real images. By conducting extensive experiments on multiple groups of ablated real-world datasets, we ultimately find that the key factors underlying the colossal failure of existing unsupervised models on real-world images are the challenging distributions of object- and scene-level biases in appearance and geometry. Because of this, the inductive biases introduced in existing unsupervised models can hardly capture the diverse object distributions. Our research results suggest that future work should exploit more explicit objectness biases in the network design.

If a Large Language Model (LLM) were to take a driving knowledge test today, would it pass? Beyond standard spatial and visual question-answering (QA) tasks on current autonomous driving benchmarks, driving knowledge tests require a complete understanding of all traffic rules, signage, and right-of-way principles. To pass this test, human drivers must discern various edge cases that rarely appear in real-world datasets. In this work, we present DriveQA, an extensive open-source text and vision-based benchmark that exhaustively covers traffic regulations and scenarios. Through our experiments using DriveQA, we show that (1) state-of-the-art LLMs and Multimodal LLMs (MLLMs) perform well on basic traffic rules but exhibit significant weaknesses in numerical reasoning and complex right-of-way scenarios, traffic sign variations, and spatial layouts, (2) fine-tuning on DriveQA improves accuracy across multiple categories, particularly in regulatory sign recognition and intersection decision-making, (3) controlled variations in DriveQA-V provide insights into model sensitivity to environmental factors such as lighting, perspective, distance, and weather conditions, and (4) pretraining on DriveQA enhances downstream driving task performance, leading to improved results on real-world datasets such as nuScenes and BDD, while also demonstrating that models can internalize text and synthetic traffic knowledge to generalize effectively across downstream QA tasks.

Visual recognition models are prone to learning spurious correlations induced by a biased training set where certain conditions B (\eg, Indoors) are over-represented in certain classes Y (\eg, Big Dogs). Synthetic data from off-the-shelf large-scale generative models offers a promising direction to mitigate this issue by augmenting underrepresented subgroups in the real dataset. However, by using a mixed distribution of real and synthetic data, we introduce another source of bias due to distributional differences between synthetic and real data (\eg synthetic artifacts). As we will show, prior work's approach for using synthetic data to resolve the model's bias toward B do not correct the model's bias toward the pair (B, G), where G denotes whether the sample is real or synthetic. Thus, the model could simply learn signals based on the pair (B, G) (\eg, Synthetic Indoors) to make predictions about Y (\eg, Big Dogs). To address this issue, we propose a simple, easy-to-implement, two-step training pipeline that we call From Fake to Real (FFR). The first step of FFR pre-trains a model on balanced synthetic data to learn robust representations across subgroups. In the second step, FFR fine-tunes the model on real data using ERM or common loss-based bias mitigation methods. By training on real and synthetic data separately, FFR does not expose the model to the statistical differences between real and synthetic data and thus avoids the issue of bias toward the pair (B, G). Our experiments show that FFR improves worst group accuracy over the state-of-the-art by up to 20\% over three datasets. Code available: https://github.com/mqraitem/From-Fake-to-Real

Recent years have witnessed the emergence of multivariate modeling using time series foundation models (TSFMs), which achieve advanced zero-shot generalization. Modern multivariate TSFMs are predominantly pretrained on multivariate synthetic data, which is easier to scale but may fail to capture the complex temporal dynamics and cross-variable relationships present in real-world time series. This raises a key question: Whether and to what extent the leading TSFMs trained with the real-world corpus perform better than those trained with synthetic data? To answer this, we establish the RMISC corpus, a considerably large-scale, high-quality, openly accessible, real-world, and multivariate time series archive that contains around 200 datasets and 142 billion time points across diverse domains. Furthermore, we pretrain four advanced TSFMs on univariate, synthetic multivariate, and real-world multivariate data and evaluate their zero-shot generalization capabilities on standard in-distribution and out-of-distribution benchmarks. Experimental results show that incorporating real-world multivariate data predominantly improves the generalization performance for both univariate and multivariate TSFMs. These results provide a deeper understanding of how real-world multivariate data contributes to the development of stronger TSFMs.

Conformal prediction is a framework for predictive inference with a distribution-free, finite-sample guarantee. However, it tends to provide uninformative prediction sets when calibration data are scarce. This paper introduces Synthetic-powered predictive inference (SPI), a novel framework that incorporates synthetic data -- e.g., from a generative model -- to improve sample efficiency. At the core of our method is a score transporter: an empirical quantile mapping that aligns nonconformity scores from trusted, real data with those from synthetic data. By carefully integrating the score transporter into the calibration process, SPI provably achieves finite-sample coverage guarantees without making any assumptions about the real and synthetic data distributions. When the score distributions are well aligned, SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets than standard conformal prediction. Experiments on image classification -- augmenting data with synthetic diffusion-model generated images -- and on tabular regression demonstrate notable improvements in predictive efficiency in data-scarce settings.

Reinforcement learning (RL) is a powerful way to adapt foundation models to specialized tasks, but its reliance on large-scale human-labeled data limits broad adoption. We introduce Synthetic Data RL, a simple and general framework that reinforcement fine-tunes models using only synthetic data generated from a task definition. Our method first generates question and answer pairs from the task definition and retrieved documents, then adapts the difficulty of the question based on model solvability, and selects questions using the average pass rate of the model across samples for RL training. On Qwen-2.5-7B, our method achieves a 29.2% absolute improvement over the base model on GSM8K (+2.9 pp vs. instruction-tuned, +6.6 pp vs. Self-Instruct), 8.7% on MATH, 13.1% on GPQA (+7.0 pp vs. SynthLLM), 8.9% on MedQA, 17.7% on CQA (law) and 13.7% on CFA (finance). It surpasses supervised fine-tuning under the same data budget and nearly matches RL with full human data across datasets (e.g., +17.2 pp on GSM8K). Adding 100 human demonstrations improves the performance of GSM8K only by 0.4 pp, showing a limited added value. By reducing human data annotation, Synthetic Data RL enables scalable and efficient RL-based model adaptation. Code and demos are available at https://github.com/gydpku/Data_Synthesis_RL/.

The success of AI models relies on the availability of large, diverse, and high-quality datasets, which can be challenging to obtain due to data scarcity, privacy concerns, and high costs. Synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution by generating artificial data that mimics real-world patterns. This paper provides an overview of synthetic data research, discussing its applications, challenges, and future directions. We present empirical evidence from prior art to demonstrate its effectiveness and highlight the importance of ensuring its factuality, fidelity, and unbiasedness. We emphasize the need for responsible use of synthetic data to build more powerful, inclusive, and trustworthy language models.

Recent time series foundation models (TSFMs) can consume covariates in-context, extending zero-shot forecasting to problems driven by external factors. This enables scenario analysis: forecasting how a target responds to events that set covariates to chosen future values. Whether they can do this reliably is an open question. We introduce WhatIf-Bench, a benchmark measuring how well forecasters use covariates to forecast a target's response to future events. WhatIf-Bench is semi-synthetic: time series come from mechanistic simulators of data centers, power grids, road traffic, and water networks, with controlled covariate-target relationships grounded in each system. Each task presents a history of events intervening on covariates, then asks to forecast a future event that either replays seen values (Replay) or sets them to unseen ones (Novel). Varying the number of covariates, historical events, and event length yields 37,665 tasks. Evaluating TSFMs, frontier LLMs, and simple regression baselines, we find the LLMs reach the highest skill (improvement over a naive baseline), ahead of the best TSFMs. Every model forecasts well on Replay futures (48 to 85% skill) but drops to -7 to 50% on Novel futures, with the regression baselines falling the most. Skill on Novel futures also falls as events set more covariates jointly. More historical events raise skill on Novel futures across the board, but large differences remain. WhatIf-Bench reveals generalization to Novel futures as the core challenge, and offers a testbed toward arbitrary scenario analysis.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor f_0, while the target f^* is close to f_0 in L_2(P_X) up to an unknown radius δ. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at δ_c(n) asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}, with leading risk min{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}}. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around f_0, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals f_0, and uses holdout selection to revert to f_0 when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

Tabular data is a common form of organizing data. Multiple models are available to generate synthetic tabular datasets where observations are independent, but few have the ability to produce relational datasets. Modeling relational data is challenging as it requires modeling both a "parent" table and its relationships across tables. We introduce REaLTabFormer (Realistic Relational and Tabular Transformer), a tabular and relational synthetic data generation model. It first creates a parent table using an autoregressive GPT-2 model, then generates the relational dataset conditioned on the parent table using a sequence-to-sequence (Seq2Seq) model. We implement target masking to prevent data copying and propose the Q_{delta} statistic and statistical bootstrapping to detect overfitting. Experiments using real-world datasets show that REaLTabFormer captures the relational structure better than a baseline model. REaLTabFormer also achieves state-of-the-art results on prediction tasks, "out-of-the-box", for large non-relational datasets without needing fine-tuning.

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong performance across diverse tasks, largely driven by high-quality web data used in pre-training. However, recent studies indicate this data source is rapidly depleting. Synthetic data emerges as a promising alternative, but it remains unclear whether synthetic datasets exhibit predictable scalability comparable to raw pre-training data. In this work, we systematically investigate the scaling laws of synthetic data by introducing SynthLLM, a scalable framework that transforms pre-training corpora into diverse, high-quality synthetic datasets. Our approach achieves this by automatically extracting and recombining high-level concepts across multiple documents using a graph algorithm. Key findings from our extensive mathematical experiments on SynthLLM include: (1) SynthLLM generates synthetic data that reliably adheres to the rectified scaling law across various model sizes; (2) Performance improvements plateau near 300B tokens; and (3) Larger models approach optimal performance with fewer training tokens. For instance, an 8B model peaks at 1T tokens, while a 3B model requires 4T. Moreover, comparisons with existing synthetic data generation and augmentation methods demonstrate that SynthLLM achieves superior performance and scalability. Our findings highlight synthetic data as a scalable and reliable alternative to organic pre-training corpora, offering a viable path toward continued improvement in model performance.

Synthetic data generated by large language models has become integral to modern NLP training pipelines, from bootstrapping reasoning capabilities to augmenting instruction-following datasets. While recent work demonstrates successful applications maintaining high external data ratios, systematic understanding of how synthetic data proportion affects model behavior across different scales remains limited. This paper presents a controlled empirical study examining model performance, calibration, and output characteristics when trained on varying synthetic-to-external data ratios. Using the Pythia model suite (410M-12B parameters) across five diverse tasks, we evaluate models after one to three training iterations with synthetic data proportions ranging from 0-50\%. Our key findings include: models maintain stable performance with up to 20\% synthetic data, but degradation accelerates beyond 30\%; larger models (6.9B-12B) show greater robustness to synthetic data than smaller models (410M-1.4B); calibration degradation precedes accuracy loss, providing an early warning signal; and task characteristics matter, with reasoning tasks degrading faster than retrieval tasks under synthetic data training. Importantly, we find that current best practices, such as those employed in STaR and Self-Instruct systems that maintain greater than 80\% external data, operate well within safe regimes identified by our experiments. We provide practical guidance for practitioners on synthetic data budgets based on model scale and task requirements, alongside detailed comparison with concurrent work including Shumailov et al.'s model collapse findings.

Synthetic data is widely adopted in embedding models to ensure diversity in training data distributions across dimensions such as difficulty, length, and language. However, existing prompt-based synthesis methods struggle to capture domain-specific data distributions, particularly in data-scarce domains, and often overlook fine-grained relevance diversity. In this paper, we present a Chinese short video dataset with 4-level relevance annotations, filling a critical resource void. Further, we propose a semi-supervised synthetic data pipeline where two collaboratively trained models generate domain-adaptive short video data with controllable relevance labels. Our method enhances relevance-level diversity by synthesizing samples for underrepresented intermediate relevance labels, resulting in a more balanced and semantically rich training data set. Extensive offline experiments show that the embedding model trained on our synthesized data outperforms those using data generated based on prompting or vanilla supervised fine-tuning(SFT). Moreover, we demonstrate that incorporating more diverse fine-grained relevance levels in training data enhances the model's sensitivity to subtle semantic distinctions, highlighting the value of fine-grained relevance supervision in embedding learning. In the search enhanced recommendation pipeline of Douyin's dual-column scenario, through online A/B testing, the proposed model increased click-through rate(CTR) by 1.45%, raised the proportion of Strong Relevance Ratio (SRR) by 4.9%, and improved the Image User Penetration Rate (IUPR) by 0.1054%.

Generative models such as Large Language Models, Diffusion Models, and generative adversarial networks have recently revolutionized the creation of synthetic data, offering scalable solutions to data scarcity, privacy, and annotation challenges in data mining. This tutorial introduces the foundations and latest advances in synthetic data generation, covers key methodologies and practical frameworks, and discusses evaluation strategies and applications. Attendees will gain actionable insights into leveraging generative synthetic data to enhance data mining research and practice. More information can be found on our website: https://syndata4dm.github.io/.

The industry is rich in cases when we are required to make forecasting for large amounts of time series at once. However, we might be in a situation where we can not afford to train a separate model for each of them. Such issue in time series modeling remains without due attention. The remedy for this setting is the establishment of a foundation model. Such a model is expected to work in zero-shot and few-shot regimes. However, what should we take as a training dataset for such kind of model? Witnessing the benefits from the enrichment of NLP datasets with artificially-generated data, we might want to adopt their experience for time series. In contrast to natural language, the process of generation of synthetic time series data is even more favorable because it provides full control of series patterns, time horizons, and number of samples. In this work, we consider the essential question if it is advantageous to train a foundation model on synthetic data or it is better to utilize only a limited number of real-life examples. Our experiments are conducted only for regular time series and speak in favor of leveraging solely the real time series. Moreover, the choice of the proper source dataset strongly influences the performance during inference. When provided access even to a limited quantity of short time series data, employing it within a supervised framework yields more favorable results than training on a larger volume of synthetic data. The code for our experiments is publicly available on Github https://github.com/sb-ai-lab/synthesize_or_not.

Encoder-decoder Large Language Models (LLMs), such as BERT and RoBERTa, require that all categories in an annotation task be sufficiently represented in the training data for optimal performance. However, it is often difficult to find sufficient examples for all categories in a task when building a high-quality training set. In this article, I describe this problem and propose a solution, the synthetic imputation approach. Leveraging a generative LLM (GPT-4o), this approach generates synthetic texts based on careful prompting and five original examples drawn randomly with replacement from the sample. This approach ensures that new synthetic texts are sufficiently different from the original texts to reduce overfitting, but retain the underlying substantive meaning of the examples to maximize out-of-sample performance. With 75 original examples or more, synthetic imputation's performance is on par with a full sample of original texts, and overfitting remains low, predictable and correctable with 50 original samples. The synthetic imputation approach provides a novel role for generative LLMs in research and allows applied researchers to balance their datasets for best performance.

Recent text-to-image generation models have shown promising results in generating high-fidelity photo-realistic images. Though the results are astonishing to human eyes, how applicable these generated images are for recognition tasks remains under-explored. In this work, we extensively study whether and how synthetic images generated from state-of-the-art text-to-image generation models can be used for image recognition tasks, and focus on two perspectives: synthetic data for improving classification models in data-scarce settings (i.e. zero-shot and few-shot), and synthetic data for large-scale model pre-training for transfer learning. We showcase the powerfulness and shortcomings of synthetic data from existing generative models, and propose strategies for better applying synthetic data for recognition tasks. Code: https://github.com/CVMI-Lab/SyntheticData.

Synthetic data is essential for training foundation models for time series (FMTS), but most generators assume static correlations, and are typically missing realistic inter-channel dependencies. We introduce DynLMC, a Dynamic Linear Model of Coregionalization, that incorporates time-varying, regime-switching correlations and cross-channel lag structures. Our approach produces synthetic multivariate time series with correlation dynamics that closely resemble real data. Fine-tuning three foundational models on DynLMC-generated data yields consistent zero-shot forecasting improvements across nine benchmarks. Our results demonstrate that modeling dynamic inter-channel correlations enhances FMTS transferability, highlighting the importance of data-centric pretraining.

Estimation of causal effects is critical to a range of scientific disciplines. Existing methods for this task either require interventional data, knowledge about the ground truth causal graph, or rely on assumptions such as unconfoundedness, restricting their applicability in real-world settings. In the domain of tabular machine learning, Prior-data fitted networks (PFNs) have achieved state-of-the-art predictive performance, having been pre-trained on synthetic data to solve tabular prediction problems via in-context learning. To assess whether this can be transferred to the harder problem of causal effect estimation, we pre-train PFNs on synthetic data drawn from a wide variety of causal structures, including interventions, to predict interventional outcomes given observational data. Through extensive experiments on synthetic case studies, we show that our approach allows for the accurate estimation of causal effects without knowledge of the underlying causal graph. We also perform ablation studies that elucidate Do-PFN's scalability and robustness across datasets with a variety of causal characteristics.

Synthetic data generation has become an increasingly popular way of training models without the need for large, manually labeled datasets. For tasks like text embedding, synthetic data offers diverse and scalable training examples, significantly reducing the cost of human annotation. However, most current approaches rely heavily on proprietary models like GPT-4, which are expensive and inefficient for generating large-scale embedding data. In this paper, we introduce SPEED, a framework that aligns open-source small models (8B) to efficiently generate large-scale synthetic embedding data. Through supervised fine-tuning, preference optimization, and self-improvement, SPEED enables small open-source models to produce high-quality data. Remarkably, SPEED uses only less than 1/10 of the GPT API calls, outperforming the state-of-the-art embedding model E5_mistral when both are trained solely on their synthetic data. Using this efficient generator, we conduct a comprehensive study on how various factors within the alignment pipeline impact data quality and reveal the scaling law for synthetic embedding data.

Deep neural networks have brought remarkable breakthroughs in medical image analysis. However, due to their data-hungry nature, the modest dataset sizes in medical imaging projects might be hindering their full potential. Generating synthetic data provides a promising alternative, allowing to complement training datasets and conducting medical image research at a larger scale. Diffusion models recently have caught the attention of the computer vision community by producing photorealistic synthetic images. In this study, we explore using Latent Diffusion Models to generate synthetic images from high-resolution 3D brain images. We used T1w MRI images from the UK Biobank dataset (N=31,740) to train our models to learn about the probabilistic distribution of brain images, conditioned on covariables, such as age, sex, and brain structure volumes. We found that our models created realistic data, and we could use the conditioning variables to control the data generation effectively. Besides that, we created a synthetic dataset with 100,000 brain images and made it openly available to the scientific community.

Foundation-model research increasingly needs data about people: user state, personal histories, relationships, contact-like fields, documents, and longitudinal updates. Real user data is difficult to share, perturb, audit, or redistribute responsibly, while independently generated fake fields rarely preserve the cross-field and temporal consistency needed for controlled evaluation. We present PROFILEFOUNDRY, a deterministic generator and fixed reference release of 100,000 adult synthetic Person Objects across eight locales. Each object combines a typed current snapshot, household, family, and employer links, snapshot-aligned events, normalized relational views, and generation provenance. The release contains 709,228 events, 40,338 households, 52,491 employers, and 518,564 directed relationship edges. We report evidence in separate categories: selected population-marginal comparisons, per-object invariant checks, release-wide referential and temporal closure, and coincidence/provenance screens. PROFILEFOUNDRY is not a population-fidelity model, a rendered-text corpus, or a formal privacy mechanism. Instead, it is a responsible synthetic source layer for constructing downstream foundation-model evaluations involving memory, privacy, document understanding, record linkage, and agent state while keeping the synthetic person behind each artifact inspectable

Foundation models for zero-shot time series forecasting face challenges in efficient long-horizon prediction and reproducibility, with existing synthetic-only approaches underperforming on challenging benchmarks. This paper presents TempoPFN, a univariate time series foundation model based on linear Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs) pre-trained exclusively on synthetic data. The model uses a GatedDeltaProduct architecture with state-weaving for fully parallelizable training across sequence lengths, eliminating the need for windowing or summarization techniques while maintaining robust temporal state-tracking. Our comprehensive synthetic data pipeline unifies diverse generators, including stochastic differential equations, Gaussian processes, and audio synthesis, with novel augmentations. In zero-shot evaluations on the Gift-Eval benchmark, TempoPFN achieves top-tier competitive performance, outperforming all existing synthetic-only approaches and surpassing the vast majority of models trained on real-world data, while being more efficient than existing baselines by leveraging fully parallelizable training and inference. We open-source our complete data generation pipeline and training code, providing a reproducible foundation for future research.

We study a capability the dominant paradigm in synthetic tabular data does not provide: exact satisfaction of a declared analytical outcome with no source data. Imitation methods (copulas, GANs, diffusion) learn a real distribution and sample from it, and are judged on fidelity to real data. A large, practical class of needs is different: generating data with no source data ("cold start") that reproduces a declared outcome (a revenue curve, a churn rate, a group share) across a relational schema. Off-the-shelf imitation tools offer no interface for such targets, and no sampler can hit an exact aggregate, because sampling has variance. On a real public dataset, off-the-shelf learned synthesizers trained on that very data miss the declared monthly aggregate by 74 to 86 percent; a per-period steelman cuts the miss to about 19 percent and still cannot reach 0; a closed-form generator reaches exactly 0. We name this task outcome-conformant synthesis, argue its evaluation axis is conformance rather than fidelity, and show the two axes are orthogonal. We contribute: (1) a formal account showing a widely-used family of exact-aggregate generators is exactly conditional-sum sampling of a Gamma population (via Lukacs' characterization), with closed-form exactness, a closed-form marginal CV, and scale-invariance; a controlled experiment maps the boundary, enforcing the exact aggregate costs at most 0.006 in 1-Wasserstein distance to an arbitrary external marginal, the rest being shape-family mismatch; (2) SpecBench, to our knowledge the first benchmark to measure conformance to analytical outcomes for cold-start relational synthesis; and (3) a closed-form, deterministic reference system. Exact aggregation alone is trivial; the contribution is conformance jointly with closed-form marginals, integrity, determinism, and zero source data. We concede fidelity to imitation where real data exists.

Synthetic data generation is an important application of machine learning in the field of medical imaging. While existing approaches have successfully applied fine-tuned diffusion models for synthesizing medical images, we explore potential improvements to this pipeline through feature-aligned diffusion. Our approach aligns intermediate features of the diffusion model to the output features of an expert, and our preliminary findings show an improvement of 9% in generation accuracy and ~0.12 in SSIM diversity. Our approach is also synergistic with existing methods, and easily integrated into diffusion training pipelines for improvements. We make our code available at https://github.com/lnairGT/Feature-Aligned-Diffusion.

Synthetic data has been proposed as a solution to address the issue of high-quality data scarcity in the training of large language models (LLMs). Studies have shown that synthetic data can effectively improve the performance of LLMs on downstream benchmarks. However, despite its potential benefits, our analysis suggests that there may be inherent flaws in synthetic data. The uniform format of synthetic data can lead to pattern overfitting and cause significant shifts in the output distribution, thereby reducing the model's instruction-following capabilities. Our work delves into these specific flaws associated with question-answer (Q-A) pairs, a prevalent type of synthetic data, and presents a method based on unlearning techniques to mitigate these flaws. The empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach, which can reverse the instruction-following issues caused by pattern overfitting without compromising performance on benchmarks at relatively low cost. Our work has yielded key insights into the effective use of synthetic data, aiming to promote more robust and efficient LLM training.

The increasing adoption of synthetic data in aviation research offers a promising solution to data scarcity and confidentiality challenges. This study investigates the potential of generative models to produce realistic synthetic flight data and evaluates their quality through a comprehensive four-stage assessment framework. The need for synthetic flight data arises from their potential to serve as an alternative to confidential real-world records and to augment rare events in historical datasets. These enhanced datasets can then be used to train machine learning models that predict critical events, such as flight delays, cancellations, diversions, and turnaround times. Two generative models, Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE) and Gaussian Copula (GC), are adapted to generate synthetic flight information and compared based on their ability to preserve statistical similarity, fidelity, diversity, and predictive utility. Results indicate that while GC achieves higher statistical similarity and fidelity, its computational cost hinders its applicability to large datasets. In contrast, TVAE efficiently handles large datasets and enables scalable synthetic data generation. The findings demonstrate that synthetic data can support flight delay prediction models with accuracy comparable to those trained on real data. These results pave the way for leveraging synthetic flight data to enhance predictive modeling in air transportation.

Language models are increasingly used to create synthetic survey samples, also called silicon samples. Decision models are a new class of language models that return a probability for each point of a rating scale instead of text. We ask whether these models, or the newest generative LLMs, can stand in for human respondents on a psychometric survey. We test fourteen decision models from eleven providers and 47 generative LLMs on an open Lithuanian organisational-psychology survey (n=263, 68 items), with 100 real respondent profiles, the Psychometric Similarity Score (PSS) and statistical baselines. The best generative model, MiniMax M3, reaches PSS 0.813. This is level with a Gaussian copula fit only on other respondents (0.824) and below a copula fit in sample (0.927). A second sample of 100 real people scores below the best models, so at this size PSS cannot rank them against real respondents. In 5 of 10 product lines the newest generative release scores below an earlier release of the same line beyond resampling noise, and none gains beyond it. With the default rounded readout, 13 of 14 decision models score below the generative reference gpt-5.4-mini. Of the 47 generative models, 33 reproduce the pattern of item correlations better than any decision model. Averaged over respondents, the probability vectors are much closer to the human item marginals than rounded answers. They also rank respondents about as well as a profile regression fit on 163 real people. As forecasts of each person's own answers, however, every decision model is worse than the answer frequencies of other respondents, mainly because its average vector differs from them. The profile regression improves on these frequencies by only 1.0%, so the profile fields say little about how a person answers. Synthetic respondents built on such profiles should therefore aim at sample-level fidelity.

Recent advances in large language model (LLM) pretraining have shown that simply scaling data quantity eventually leads to diminishing returns, hitting a data wall. In response, the use of synthetic data for pretraining has emerged as a promising paradigm for pushing the frontier of performance. Despite this, the factors affecting synthetic data quality remain poorly understood. In this work, we introduce BeyondWeb, a synthetic data generation framework that produces high-quality synthetic data for pretraining. BeyondWeb significantly extends the capabilities of traditional web-scale datasets, outperforming state-of-the-art synthetic pretraining datasets such as Cosmopedia and Nemotron-CC's high-quality synthetic subset (Nemotron-Synth) by up to 5.1 percentage points (pp) and 2.6pp, respectively, when averaged across a suite of 14 benchmark evaluations. It delivers up to 7.7x faster training than open web data and 2.7x faster than Nemotron-Synth. Remarkably, a 3B model trained for 180B tokens on BeyondWeb outperforms an 8B model trained for the same token budget on Cosmopedia. We also present several insights from BeyondWeb on synthetic data for pretraining: what drives its benefits, which data to rephrase and how, and the impact of model size and family on data quality. Overall, our work shows that there's no silver bullet for generating high-quality synthetic pretraining data. The best outcomes require jointly optimizing many factors, a challenging task that requires rigorous science and practical expertise. Naive approaches can yield modest improvements, potentially at great cost, while well-executed methods can yield transformative improvements, as exemplified by BeyondWeb.

Within the evolving landscape of deep learning, the dilemma of data quantity and quality has been a long-standing problem. The recent advent of Large Language Models (LLMs) offers a data-centric solution to alleviate the limitations of real-world data with synthetic data generation. However, current investigations into this field lack a unified framework and mostly stay on the surface. Therefore, this paper provides an organization of relevant studies based on a generic workflow of synthetic data generation. By doing so, we highlight the gaps within existing research and outline prospective avenues for future study. This work aims to shepherd the academic and industrial communities towards deeper, more methodical inquiries into the capabilities and applications of LLMs-driven synthetic data generation.

Synthetic data generation has the potential to impact applications and domains with scarce data. However, before such data is used for sensitive tasks such as mental health, we need an understanding of how different demographics are represented in it. In our paper, we analyze the potential of producing synthetic data using GPT-3 by exploring the various stressors it attributes to different race and gender combinations, to provide insight for future researchers looking into using LLMs for data generation. Using GPT-3, we develop HEADROOM, a synthetic dataset of 3,120 posts about depression-triggering stressors, by controlling for race, gender, and time frame (before and after COVID-19). Using this dataset, we conduct semantic and lexical analyses to (1) identify the predominant stressors for each demographic group; and (2) compare our synthetic data to a human-generated dataset. We present the procedures to generate queries to develop depression data using GPT-3, and conduct analyzes to uncover the types of stressors it assigns to demographic groups, which could be used to test the limitations of LLMs for synthetic data generation for depression data. Our findings show that synthetic data mimics some of the human-generated data distribution for the predominant depression stressors across diverse demographics.

With the rapid advancement of synthetic dataset generation techniques, evaluating the quality of synthetic data has become a critical research focus. Robust evaluation not only drives innovations in data generation methods but also guides researchers in optimizing the utilization of these synthetic resources. However, current evaluation studies for synthetic datasets remain limited, lacking a universally accepted standard framework. To address this, this paper proposes a novel evaluation framework integrating generalized cross-validation experiments and domain transfer learning principles, enabling generalizable and comparable assessments of synthetic dataset quality. The framework involves training task-specific models (e.g., YOLOv5s) on both synthetic datasets and multiple real-world benchmarks (e.g., KITTI, BDD100K), forming a cross-performance matrix. Following normalization, a Generalized Cross-Validation (GCV) Matrix is constructed to quantify domain transferability. The framework introduces two key metrics. One measures the simulation quality by quantifying the similarity between synthetic data and real-world datasets, while another evaluates the transfer quality by assessing the diversity and coverage of synthetic data across various real-world scenarios. Experimental validation on Virtual KITTI demonstrates the effectiveness of our proposed framework and metrics in assessing synthetic data fidelity. This scalable and quantifiable evaluation solution overcomes traditional limitations, providing a principled approach to guide synthetic dataset optimization in artificial intelligence research.

Synthetic data is increasingly used to train large language models (LLMs), yet its security implications remain poorly understood. Prior work on subliminal learning suggests that models can inherit behavioral traits from seemingly unrelated training data. In this work, we investigate whether such mechanisms can be exploited to inject targeted social biases into aligned models through semantically benign synthetic data. We construct a pipeline in which a misaligned teacher model generates filtered synthetic datasets across domains such as creative writing and code generation, which are then used to fine-tune aligned student models. Our experiments show that benign-looking synthetic data can act as a covert channel for transmitting targeted biases while largely preserving the student model's general task capabilities. These results reveal a previously underexplored security risk in synthetic data-driven LLM training pipelines and highlight the need for improved safeguards. As one possible step toward this goal, we suggest that log-linearity-based scoring may provide a useful signal for screening seemingly benign synthetic data.

Causal Discovery plays a pivotal role in revealing relationships among observed variables, particularly in the temporal setup. While the majority of CD methods rely on synthetic data for evaluation, and recently for training, these fall short in accurately mirroring real-world scenarios; an effect even more evident in temporal data. Generation techniques depending on simplified assumptions on causal structure, effects and time, limit the quality and diversity of the simulated data. In this work, we introduce Temporal Causal-based Simulation (TCS), a robust framework for generating realistic time-series data and their associated temporal causal graphs. The approach is structured in three phases: estimating the true lagged causal structure of the data, approximating the functional dependencies between variables and learning the noise distribution of the corresponding causal model, each part of which can be explicitly tailored based on data assumptions and characteristics. Through an extensive evaluation process, we highlight that single detection methods for generated data discrimination prove inadequate, accentuating it as a multifaceted challenge. For this, we detail a Min-max optimization phase that draws on AutoML techniques. Our contributions include a flexible, model-agnostic pipeline for generating realistic temporal causal data, a thorough evaluation setup which enhances the validity of the generated datasets and insights into the challenges posed by realistic data generation. Through experiments involving not only real but also semi-synthetic and purely synthetic datasets, we demonstrate that while sampling realistic causal data remains a complex task, our method enriches the domain of generating sensible causal-based temporal data.

Recent works explore how real and synthetic data contribute to Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models' generalization. While current VLA models have shown the strong effectiveness of large-scale real-robot pre-training, synthetic data has not previously demonstrated comparable capability at scale. This paper provides the first evidence that synthetic data alone can match the performance of the strongest π-dataset in pre-training a VLA model, revealing the substantial value of large-scale simulation. The resulting model also exhibits surprisingly zero-shot sim-to-real transfer on several challenging tasks. Our synthetic dataset, InternData-A1, contains over 630k trajectories and 7,433 hours across 4 embodiments, 18 skills, 70 tasks, and 227 scenes, covering rigid, articulated, deformable, and fluid-object manipulation. It is generated through a highly autonomous, fully decoupled, and compositional simulation pipeline that enables long-horizon skill composition, flexible task assembly, and heterogeneous embodiments with minimal manual tuning. Using the same architecture as π_0, we pre-train a model entirely on InternData-A1 and find that it matches the official π_0 across 49 simulation tasks, 5 real-world tasks, and 4 long-horizon dexterous tasks. We release the dataset and will open-source the generation pipeline to broaden access to large-scale robotic data and to lower the barrier to scalable data creation for embodied AI research.

Longitudinal treatment decisions require predicting potential outcomes under future treatment sequences in the presence of time-varying confounding, heterogeneous patient dynamics, and limited domain-specific data. Existing longitudinal causal estimators typically train a new model for each cohort or simulator. We introduce Causal Longitudinal Prior-Fitted Networks (CausalLongPFN), a prior-fitted in-context predictor for longitudinal causal prediction. The model is pretrained entirely on synthetic episodes sampled from a broad prior over temporal structural causal models, exposing it to treatment-confounder feedback, latent heterogeneity, nonlinear state evolution, delayed effects, and cumulative treatment responses. At test time, CausalLongPFN is frozen: it conditions on support trajectories, a query history, and a proposed future treatment sequence, and returns a predictive distribution over future outcomes without gradient updates or propensity-model fitting. Multi-step predictions are obtained by recursively applying the one-step predictor under the specified treatment sequence. We evaluate on branchable cancer, HIV, and warfarin benchmarks with ground-truth counterfactual labels, and on factual-only rolling-origin prediction in MIMIC-III ICU trajectories. CausalLongPFN is competitive with domain-trained longitudinal baselines on counterfactual benchmarks and performs strongly on factual MIMIC-III prediction, suggesting that broad synthetic causal pretraining can provide a useful frozen alternative when repeated domain-specific training is costly or impractical.

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

We develop a portfolio allocation framework that leverages deep learning techniques to address challenges arising from high-dimensional, non-stationary, and low-signal-to-noise market information. Our approach includes a dynamic embedding method that reduces the non-stationary, high-dimensional state space into a lower-dimensional representation. We design a reinforcement learning (RL) framework that integrates generative autoencoders and online meta-learning to dynamically embed market information, enabling the RL agent to focus on the most impactful parts of the state space for portfolio allocation decisions. Empirical analysis based on the top 500 U.S. stocks demonstrates that our framework outperforms common portfolio benchmarks and the predict-then-optimize (PTO) approach using machine learning, particularly during periods of market stress. Traditional factor models do not fully explain this superior performance. The framework's ability to time volatility reduces its market exposure during turbulent times. Ablation studies confirm the robustness of this performance across various reinforcement learning algorithms. Additionally, the embedding and meta-learning techniques effectively manage the complexities of high-dimensional, noisy, and non-stationary financial data, enhancing both portfolio performance and risk management.

Developing meaningful and efficient representations that separate the fundamental structure of the data generation mechanism is crucial in representation learning. However, Disentangled Representation Learning has not fully shown its potential on real images, because of correlated generative factors, their resolution and limited access to ground truth labels. Specifically on the latter, we investigate the possibility of leveraging synthetic data to learn general-purpose disentangled representations applicable to real data, discussing the effect of fine-tuning and what properties of disentanglement are preserved after the transfer. We provide an extensive empirical study to address these issues. In addition, we propose a new interpretable intervention-based metric, to measure the quality of factors encoding in the representation. Our results indicate that some level of disentanglement, transferring a representation from synthetic to real data, is possible and effective.

Access to real-world medication prescriptions is essential for medical research and healthcare quality improvement. However, access to real medication prescriptions is often limited due to the sensitive nature of the information expressed. Additionally, manually labelling these instructions for training and fine-tuning Natural Language Processing (NLP) models can be tedious and expensive. We introduce a novel task-specific model architecture, Label-To-Text-Transformer (LT3), tailored to generate synthetic medication prescriptions based on provided labels, such as a vocabulary list of medications and their attributes. LT3 is trained on a set of around 2K lines of medication prescriptions extracted from the MIMIC-III database, allowing the model to produce valuable synthetic medication prescriptions. We evaluate LT3's performance by contrasting it with a state-of-the-art Pre-trained Language Model (PLM), T5, analysing the quality and diversity of generated texts. We deploy the generated synthetic data to train the SpacyNER model for the Named Entity Recognition (NER) task over the n2c2-2018 dataset. The experiments show that the model trained on synthetic data can achieve a 96-98\% F1 score at Label Recognition on Drug, Frequency, Route, Strength, and Form. LT3 codes and data will be shared at https://github.com/HECTA-UoM/Label-To-Text-Transformer

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly used as synthetic survey respondents, but existing evaluations ask whether answers look plausible at the individual level. We argue the right question is psychometric: do LLMs preserve the joint distribution, latent structure, reliability, mediation pathways, and demographic effects of real human survey data? We introduce a Lithuanian organisational-psychology dataset (n=263 employees; Dunham Attitudes Toward Change, UWES-17, Koopmans IWPQ; 68 items, 12 subscales) and condition a 37-model lineup spanning OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and twelve open-weight families on real respondent profiles under a five-level persona-disclosure ladder, presentation and reasoning-effort ablations, counterfactual demographic swaps (gender, role, education), a cross-language check, and a verbatim-recall memorization probe. The resulting Psychometric Similarity Score (PSS) is anchored against five non-LLM statistical baselines and a held-out human-vs-human ceiling, with respondent-bootstrap confidence intervals and an item-permutation null for Tucker's phi. LLMs reproduce the qualitative direction of human psychometric relationships, but a Gaussian-copula baseline beats every LLM on the sample-driven PSS components; the LLM "crowd" is more similar to itself (mean inter-LLM PSS 0.73) than to humans; and memorization does not drive the leaderboard (recall-PSS rank correlation 0.00). Counterfactual swaps reveal education-driven effects (mean |d|=0.56) that dwarf gender (0.12) and role (0.18); Tucker's phi on UWES falls inside the permutation null for 8 of 37 models. Downstream, every LLM shows a strong acquiescence shift (+0.84 SD), synthetic-trained regressors lose predictive validity on held-out humans (mean R^2 -0.18 vs 0.28), and models fabricate indirect effects on 3 of 10 placebo mediation paths. LLM samples are not a drop-in replacement for human survey data.

Social determinants of health (SDoH) have an important impact on patient outcomes but are incompletely collected from the electronic health records (EHR). This study researched the ability of large language models to extract SDoH from free text in EHRs, where they are most commonly documented, and explored the role of synthetic clinical text for improving the extraction of these scarcely documented, yet extremely valuable, clinical data. 800 patient notes were annotated for SDoH categories, and several transformer-based models were evaluated. The study also experimented with synthetic data generation and assessed for algorithmic bias. Our best-performing models were fine-tuned Flan-T5 XL (macro-F1 0.71) for any SDoH, and Flan-T5 XXL (macro-F1 0.70). The benefit of augmenting fine-tuning with synthetic data varied across model architecture and size, with smaller Flan-T5 models (base and large) showing the greatest improvements in performance (delta F1 +0.12 to +0.23). Model performance was similar on the in-hospital system dataset but worse on the MIMIC-III dataset. Our best-performing fine-tuned models outperformed zero- and few-shot performance of ChatGPT-family models for both tasks. These fine-tuned models were less likely than ChatGPT to change their prediction when race/ethnicity and gender descriptors were added to the text, suggesting less algorithmic bias (p<0.05). At the patient-level, our models identified 93.8% of patients with adverse SDoH, while ICD-10 codes captured 2.0%. Our method can effectively extracted SDoH information from clinic notes, performing better compare to GPT zero- and few-shot settings. These models could enhance real-world evidence on SDoH and aid in identifying patients needing social support.

Recent works improving LLM math reasoning with synthetic data have used unique setups, making comparison of data synthesis strategies impractical. This leaves many unanswered questions about the roles of different factors in the synthetic data pipeline, such as the impact of filtering low-quality problems. To address this gap, we introduce FLAMES, a Framework for LLM Assessment of Math rEasoning Data Synthesis, and perform a systematic study of 10 existing data synthesis strategies and multiple other factors impacting the performance of synthetic math reasoning data. Our FLAMES experiments provide several valuable insights about the optimal balance of difficulty and diversity of synthetic data. First, data agents designed to increase problem complexity lead to best improvements on most math metrics. Second, with a fixed data generation budget, keeping higher problem coverage is more important than keeping only problems with reliable solutions. Third, GSM8K- and MATH-based synthetic data can lead to improvements on competition-level benchmarks, showcasing easy-to-hard generalization. Leveraging insights from our FLAMES experiments, we design two novel data synthesis strategies for improving out-of-domain generalization and robustness. Further, we develop the FLAMES dataset, an effective blend of our novel and existing data synthesis strategies, outperforming public datasets on OlympiadBench (+15.7), CollegeMath (+4.5), GSMPlus (+6.5), and MATH (+3.1). Fine-tuning Qwen2.5-Math-7B on the FLAMES dataset achieves 81.4% on MATH, surpassing larger Llama3 405B, GPT-4o and Claude 3.5 Sonnet.

Generating synthetic data through generative models is gaining interest in the ML community and beyond, promising a future where datasets can be tailored to individual needs. Unfortunately, synthetic data is usually not perfect, resulting in potential errors in downstream tasks. In this work we explore how the generative process affects the downstream ML task. We show that the naive synthetic data approach -- using synthetic data as if it is real -- leads to downstream models and analyses that do not generalize well to real data. As a first step towards better ML in the synthetic data regime, we introduce Deep Generative Ensemble (DGE) -- a framework inspired by Deep Ensembles that aims to implicitly approximate the posterior distribution over the generative process model parameters. DGE improves downstream model training, evaluation, and uncertainty quantification, vastly outperforming the naive approach on average. The largest improvements are achieved for minority classes and low-density regions of the original data, for which the generative uncertainty is largest.

Flight diversions are rare but high-impact events in aviation, making their reliable prediction vital for both safety and operational efficiency. However, their scarcity in historical records impedes the training of machine learning models utilised to predict them. This study addresses this scarcity gap by investigating how generative models can augment historical flight data with synthetic diversion records to enhance model training and improve predictive accuracy. We propose a multi-objective optimisation framework coupled with automated hyperparameter search to identify optimal configurations for three deep generative models: Tabular Variational Autoencoder (TVAE), Conditional Tabular Generative Adversarial Network (CTGAN), and CopulaGAN, with the Gaussian Copula (GC) model serving as a statistical baseline. The quality of the synthetic data was examined through a six-stage evaluation framework encompassing realism, diversity, operational validity, statistical similarity, fidelity, and predictive utility. Results show that the optimised models significantly outperform their non-optimised counterparts, and that synthetic augmentation substantially improves diversion prediction compared to models trained solely on real data. These findings demonstrate the effectiveness of hyperparameter-optimised generative models for advancing predictive modelling of rare events in air transportation.

Counterfactual inference in Gaussian-process structural causal models (GP-SCMs) has been developed primarily for continuous endogenous variables, limiting applicability to causal graphs that contain discrete child nodes with continuous parents. We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for counterfactual inference with heterogeneous variable types by pairing GP predictors with explicit exogenous noise mechanisms. For discrete outcomes, we derive exact conditional noise-abduction procedures using a uniform threshold for binary variables, a Gumbel-max race for nominal categories, and a latent Gaussian cut-point model for ordinal ones. In each case, we propagate abducted noise through interventions while accounting for posterior uncertainty in the GP latent functions, and prove that the resulting mechanisms reproduce the fitted model's observational and interventional distributions. On synthetic SCMs with known ground-truth counterfactuals, we evaluate estimation accuracy, consistency, and robustness to coupling misspecification. A key finding is that applying a categorical coupling to ordinal data inflates counterfactual error roughly threefold even when observational fit remains comparable, and that this error does not diminish with more data. As the training set grows, the fitted structural equation converges to the truth while the counterfactual error flattens onto a floor. In the reverse direction, forcing a false order onto nominal data instead degrades the fitted equation itself. The choice of coupling must therefore be justified on structural grounds rather than read off the fit.

A common and effective means for improving language model capabilities involves finetuning a ``student'' language model's parameters on generations from a more proficient ``teacher'' model. Termed ``synthetic data'', these generations are often produced before any student finetuning, but some work has considered generating new synthetic samples as training progresses. This paper studies and advocates for the latter case, where data are generated in an iterative, closed-loop fashion that is guided by the current state of the student model. For a fixed budget of generated samples, or a budget in terms of compute spent querying a teacher, we show that this curation of finetuning data affords improved student performance over static generation. Further, while there have been several LLM-specific methods proposed that operate in this regime, we find that simple, inexpensive selection criteria from the active learning literature tend to be most performant. We validate these claims across four mathematical and logical reasoning datasets using four different small language models.

We introduce TiRex-2, a recurrent xLSTM-based time series foundation model that generalizes the univariate TiRex to multivariate forecasting with both past and future covariates. Real-world forecasting is inherently sequential: observations arrive continuously, variables evolve jointly, and a subset of covariates is known ahead of time. Existing Transformer-based time series foundation models capture cross-variate dependencies but incur quadratic complexity in context length and require full-history recomputation as new observations arrive. TiRex-2 addresses these limitations through a memory-centric recurrent design that operates at constant per-patch cost under streaming. The model combines a bidirectional time mixer with an asymmetric grouped-attention variate mixer, enabling the integration of future-known covariates while preserving strict causality over target variables. To our knowledge, this is the first time series foundation model that achieves this combination of properties. To support scalable multivariate pretraining, we propose a synthetic coupling pipeline that composes diverse multivariate samples on the fly from large univariate corpora. Empirically, TiRex-2 achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on GIFT-Eval and fev-bench, remains stable when streamed to arbitrary context lengths, and maintains constant inference cost per patch. The model uses 38.4M active parameters in univariate mode, with an additional 44.1M parameters activated for multivariate forecasting.

Since the seminal work of TabPFN, research on tabular foundation models (TFMs) based on in-context learning (ICL) has challenged long-standing paradigms in machine learning. Without seeing any real-world data, models pretrained on purely synthetic datasets generalize remarkably well across diverse datasets, often using only a moderate number of in-context examples. This shifts the focus in tabular machine learning from model architecture design to the design of synthetic datasets, or, more precisely, to the prior distributions that generate them. Yet the guiding principles for prior design remain poorly understood. This work marks the first attempt to address the gap. We systematically investigate and identify key properties of synthetic priors that allow pretrained TFMs to generalize well. Based on these insights, we introduce Mitra, a TFM trained on a curated mixture of synthetic priors selected for their diversity, distinctiveness, and performance on real-world tabular data. Mitra consistently outperforms state-of-the-art TFMs, such as TabPFNv2 and TabICL, across both classification and regression benchmarks, with better sample efficiency.

Synthetic data is becoming increasingly important for accelerating the development of language models, both large and small. Despite several successful use cases, researchers also raised concerns around model collapse and drawbacks of imitating other models. This discrepancy can be attributed to the fact that synthetic data varies in quality and diversity. Effective use of synthetic data usually requires significant human effort in curating the data. We focus on using synthetic data for post-training, specifically creating data by powerful models to teach a new skill or behavior to another model, we refer to this setting as Generative Teaching. We introduce AgentInstruct, an extensible agentic framework for automatically creating large amounts of diverse and high-quality synthetic data. AgentInstruct can create both the prompts and responses, using only raw data sources like text documents and code files as seeds. We demonstrate the utility of AgentInstruct by creating a post training dataset of 25M pairs to teach language models different skills, such as text editing, creative writing, tool usage, coding, reading comprehension, etc. The dataset can be used for instruction tuning of any base model. We post-train Mistral-7b with the data. When comparing the resulting model Orca-3 to Mistral-7b-Instruct (which uses the same base model), we observe significant improvements across many benchmarks. For example, 40% improvement on AGIEval, 19% improvement on MMLU, 54% improvement on GSM8K, 38% improvement on BBH and 45% improvement on AlpacaEval. Additionally, it consistently outperforms other models such as LLAMA-8B-instruct and GPT-3.5-turbo.

Within the field of causal inference, we consider the problem of estimating heterogeneous treatment effects from data. We propose and validate a novel approach for learning feature representations to aid the estimation of the conditional average treatment effect or CATE. Our method focuses on an intermediate layer in a neural network trained to predict the outcome from the features. In contrast to previous approaches that encourage the distribution of representations to be treatment-invariant, we leverage a genetic algorithm that optimizes over representations useful for predicting the outcome to select those less useful for predicting the treatment. This allows us to retain information within the features useful for predicting outcome even if that information may be related to treatment assignment. We validate our method on synthetic examples and illustrate its use on a real life dataset.

This paper reinterprets the Synthetic Control (SC) framework through the lens of weighting philosophy, arguing that the contrast between traditional SC and Difference-in-Differences (DID) reflects two distinct modeling mindsets: sparse versus dense weighting schemes. Rather than viewing sparsity as inherently superior, we treat it as a modeling choice simple but potentially fragile. We propose an L-infinity-regularized SC method that combines the strengths of both approaches. Like DID, it employs a denser weighting scheme that distributes weights more evenly across control units, enhancing robustness and reducing overreliance on a few control units. Like traditional SC, it remains flexible and data-driven, increasing the likelihood of satisfying the parallel trends assumption while preserving interpretability. We develop an interior point algorithm for efficient computation, derive asymptotic theory under weak dependence, and demonstrate strong finite-sample performance through simulations and real-world applications.

In the context of pretraining of Large Language Models (LLMs), synthetic data has emerged as an alternative for generating high-quality pretraining data at scale. This is particularly beneficial in low-resource language settings where the benefits of recent LLMs have been unevenly distributed across languages. In this work, we present a systematic study on the generation and evaluation of synthetic multilingual pretraining data for Indic languages, where we construct a large-scale synthetic dataset BhashaKritika, comprising 540B tokens using 5 different techniques for 10 languages. We explore the impact of grounding generation in documents, personas, and topics. We analyze how language choice, both in the prompt instructions and document grounding, affects data quality, and we compare translations of English content with native generation in Indic languages. To support scalable and language-sensitive evaluation, we introduce a modular quality evaluation pipeline that integrates script and language detection, metadata consistency checks, n-gram repetition analysis, and perplexity-based filtering using KenLM models. Our framework enables robust quality control across diverse scripts and linguistic contexts. Empirical results through model runs reveal key trade-offs in generation strategies and highlight best practices for constructing effective multilingual corpora.

Understanding the robustness of deep learning models for multivariate long-term time series forecasting (M-LTSF) remains challenging, as evaluations typically rely on real-world datasets with unknown noise properties. We propose a simulation-based evaluation framework that generates parameterizable synthetic datasets, where each dataset instance corresponds to a different configuration of signal components, noise types, signal-to-noise ratios, and frequency characteristics. These configurable components aim to model real-world multivariate time series data without the ambiguity of unknown noise. This framework enables fine-grained, systematic evaluation of M-LTSF models under controlled and diverse scenarios. We benchmark four representative architectures S-Mamba (state-space), iTransformer (transformer-based), R-Linear (linear), and Autoformer (decomposition-based). Our analysis reveals that all models degrade severely when lookback windows cannot capture complete periods of seasonal patters in the data. S-Mamba and Autoformer perform best on sawtooth patterns, while R-Linear and iTransformer favor sinusoidal signals. White and Brownian noise universally degrade performance with lower signal-to-noise ratio while S-Mamba shows specific trend-noise and iTransformer shows seasonal-noise vulnerability. Further spectral analysis shows that S-Mamba and iTransformer achieve superior frequency reconstruction. This controlled approach, based on our synthetic and principle-driven testbed, offers deeper insights into model-specific strengths and limitations through the aggregation of MSE scores and provides concrete guidance for model selection based on signal characteristics and noise conditions.

Embodied foundation models are gaining increasing attention for their zero-shot generalization, scalability, and adaptability to new tasks through few-shot post-training. However, existing models rely heavily on real-world data, which is costly and labor-intensive to collect. Synthetic data offers a cost-effective alternative, yet its potential remains largely underexplored. To bridge this gap, we explore the feasibility of training Vision-Language-Action models entirely with large-scale synthetic action data. We curate SynGrasp-1B, a billion-frame robotic grasping dataset generated in simulation with photorealistic rendering and extensive domain randomization. Building on this, we present GraspVLA, a VLA model pretrained on large-scale synthetic action data as a foundational model for grasping tasks. GraspVLA integrates autoregressive perception tasks and flow-matching-based action generation into a unified Chain-of-Thought process, enabling joint training on synthetic action data and Internet semantics data. This design helps mitigate sim-to-real gaps and facilitates the transfer of learned actions to a broader range of Internet-covered objects, achieving open-vocabulary generalization in grasping. Extensive evaluations across real-world and simulation benchmarks demonstrate GraspVLA's advanced zero-shot generalizability and few-shot adaptability to specific human preferences. We will release SynGrasp-1B dataset and pre-trained weights to benefit the community.

Covariates provide valuable information on external factors that influence time series and are critical in many real-world time series forecasting tasks. For example, in retail, covariates may indicate promotions or peak dates such as holiday seasons that heavily influence demand forecasts. Recent advances in pretraining large language model architectures for time series forecasting have led to highly accurate forecasters. However, the majority of these models do not readily use covariates as they are often specific to a certain task or domain. This paper introduces a new method to incorporate covariates into pretrained time series forecasting models. Our proposed approach incorporates covariate information into pretrained forecasting models through modular blocks that inject past and future covariate information, without necessarily modifying the pretrained model in consideration. In order to evaluate our approach, we introduce a benchmark composed of 32 different synthetic datasets with varying dynamics to evaluate the effectivity of forecasting models with covariates. Extensive evaluations on both synthetic and real datasets show that our approach effectively incorporates covariate information into pretrained models, outperforming existing baselines.

With the advent of AI agents, automatic scientific discovery has become a tenable goal. Many recent works scaffold agentic systems that can perform machine learning research, but don't offer a principled way to train such agents -- and current LLMs often generate plausible-looking but ineffective ideas. To make progress on training agents that can learn from doing, we provide a novel synthetic environment generation pipeline targeting machine learning agents. Our pipeline automatically synthesizes machine learning challenges compatible with the SWE-agent framework, covering topic sampling, dataset proposal, and code generation. The resulting synthetic tasks are 1) grounded in real machine learning datasets, because the proposed datasets are verified against the Huggingface API and are 2) verified for higher quality with a self-debugging loop. To validate the effectiveness of our synthetic tasks, we tackle MLGym, a benchmark for machine learning tasks. From the synthetic tasks, we sample trajectories from a teacher model (GPT-5), then use the trajectories to train a student model (Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B). The student models trained with our synthetic tasks achieve improved performance on MLGym, raising the AUP metric by 9% for Qwen3-4B and 12% for Qwen3-8B.

Generating synthetic data that faithfully captures the statistical structure of real-world distributions is a fundamental challenge in data modeling. Classical approaches often depend on strong parametric assumptions or manual structural design and struggle in high-dimensional or heterogeneous domains. Recent progress in Large Language Models (LLMs) reveals their potential as flexible, high-dimensional priors over real-world distributions. However, when applied to data synthesis, standard LLM-based sampling is inefficient, constrained by fixed context limits, and fails to ensure statistical alignment. Given this, we introduce LLMSynthor, a general framework for data synthesis that transforms LLMs into structure-aware simulators guided by distributional feedback. LLMSynthor treats the LLM as a nonparametric copula simulator for modeling high-order dependencies and introduces LLM Proposal Sampling to generate grounded proposal distributions that improve sampling efficiency without requiring rejection. By minimizing discrepancies in the summary statistics space, the iterative synthesis loop aligns real and synthetic data while gradually uncovering and refining the latent generative structure. We evaluate LLMSynthor in both controlled and real-world settings using heterogeneous datasets in privacy-sensitive domains (e.g., e-commerce, population, and mobility) that encompass both structured and unstructured formats. The synthetic data produced by LLMSynthor shows high statistical fidelity, practical utility, and cross-data adaptability, positioning it as a valuable tool across economics, social science, urban studies, and beyond.

Can AI systems trained on the scientific record up to a fixed point in time forecast the scientific advances that follow? Such a capability could help researchers identify collaborators and impactful research directions, and anticipate which problems and methods will become central next. We introduce PreScience -- a scientific forecasting benchmark that decomposes the research process into four interdependent generative tasks: collaborator prediction, prior work selection, contribution generation, and impact prediction. PreScience is a carefully curated dataset of 98K recent AI-related research papers, featuring disambiguated author identities, temporally aligned scholarly metadata, and a structured graph of companion author publication histories and citations spanning 502K total papers. We develop baselines and evaluations for each task, including LACERScore, a novel LLM-based measure of contribution similarity that outperforms previous metrics and approximates inter-annotator agreement. We find substantial headroom remains in each task -- e.g. in contribution generation, frontier LLMs achieve only moderate similarity to the ground-truth (GPT-5, averages 5.6 on a 1-10 scale). When composed into a 12-month end-to-end simulation of scientific production, the resulting synthetic corpus is systematically less diverse and less novel than human-authored research from the same period.

Latent factor models are the driving forces of the state-of-the-art recommender systems, with an important insight of vectorizing raw input features into dense embeddings. The dimensions of different feature embeddings are often set to a same value empirically, which limits the predictive performance of latent factor models. Existing works have proposed heuristic or reinforcement learning-based methods to search for mixed feature embedding dimensions. For efficiency concern, these methods typically choose embedding dimensions from a restricted set of candidate dimensions. However, this restriction will hurt the flexibility of dimension selection, leading to suboptimal performance of search results. In this paper, we propose Differentiable Neural Input Search (DNIS), a method that searches for mixed feature embedding dimensions in a more flexible space through continuous relaxation and differentiable optimization. The key idea is to introduce a soft selection layer that controls the significance of each embedding dimension, and optimize this layer according to model's validation performance. DNIS is model-agnostic and thus can be seamlessly incorporated with existing latent factor models for recommendation. We conduct experiments with various architectures of latent factor models on three public real-world datasets for rating prediction, Click-Through-Rate (CTR) prediction, and top-k item recommendation. The results demonstrate that our method achieves the best predictive performance compared with existing neural input search approaches with fewer embedding parameters and less time cost.

Recent smaller language models such Phi-3.5 and Phi-4 rely on synthetic data generated using larger Language models. Questions remain about leveraging synthetic data for other use cases, such as adapting LLMs to specific domains. A key limitation of synthetic data is low diversity, which negatively impacts its downstream applicability for improving other models. To address this, we propose MetaSynth, a method for generating synthetic data that enhances diversity through meta-prompting, where a language model orchestrates multiple "expert" LLM agents to collaboratively generate data. Using only 25 million tokens of synthetic data generated with MetaSynth, we successfully adapt a well-trained LLM (Mistral-7B-v0.3) to two specialized domains-Finance and Biomedicine-without compromising the capabilities of the resulting model in general tasks. In addition, we evaluate the diversity of our synthetic data using seven automated metrics, and find that it approaches the diversity of LLM pre-training corpora. Continually pre-training Mistral-7B-v0.3 with MetaSynth notably outperforms the base LLM, showing improvements of up to 4.08% in Finance and 13.75% in Biomedicine. The same model shows degraded performance when trained on data generated using a template prompt, even when the template includes prior generations and varying In-Context exemplars of real data. Our findings suggest that a few million tokens of diverse synthetic data without mixing any real data, is sufficient for effective domain adaptation when using MetaSynth.

With the continuous advancement of image generation technology, advanced models such as GPT-Image-1 and Qwen-Image have achieved remarkable text-to-image consistency and world knowledge However, these models still fall short in photorealistic image generation. Even on simple T2I tasks, they tend to produce " fake" images with distinct AI artifacts, often characterized by "overly smooth skin" and "oily facial sheens". To recapture the original goal of "indistinguishable-from-reality" generation, we propose RealGen, a photorealistic text-to-image framework. RealGen integrates an LLM component for prompt optimization and a diffusion model for realistic image generation. Inspired by adversarial generation, RealGen introduces a "Detector Reward" mechanism, which quantifies artifacts and assesses realism using both semantic-level and feature-level synthetic image detectors. We leverage this reward signal with the GRPO algorithm to optimize the entire generation pipeline, significantly enhancing image realism and detail. Furthermore, we propose RealBench, an automated evaluation benchmark employing Detector-Scoring and Arena-Scoring. It enables human-free photorealism assessment, yielding results that are more accurate and aligned with real user experience. Experiments demonstrate that RealGen significantly outperforms general models like GPT-Image-1 and Qwen-Image, as well as specialized photorealistic models like FLUX-Krea, in terms of realism, detail, and aesthetics. The code is available at https://github.com/yejy53/RealGen.

Current pre-training datasets are derived from web crawls, with all their issues, and were not designed to support mid- and post-training pipelines--for instance, they contain little explicit reasoning. Thus, many frontier labs have begun to develop their own internal datasets, starting from state-of-the-art models, to augment their pre-training data mix, eg, with reasoning traces to address cold-start problems. While demonstratively effective, none of these datasets are public, and the effect of this so-called synthetic data on knowledge and skill acquisition of language models, including small ones, remains poorly understood. We present SYNTH, the first open-source synthetic corpus derived from 58,698 Wikipedia articles that collapses pre-, mid-, and post-training into a single training stage via structured amplification of curated encyclopedic seeds. We evaluate SYNTH by training a suite of models: a 56M tiny model (Monad), 0.3B-0.6B dense models (Baguettotron), and a 13B / 1B-active MoE. At iso-compute, SYNTH outperforms filtered web data, and our models remain competitive with similarly-sized open-weight baselines. Because SYNTH is back-translated from grounded passages, SYNTH-trained models achieve high factual precision despite 10-140x fewer training tokens, with memorization targeted by the seed corpus. These results show that synthetic datasets, including our SYNTH dataset, are capable of producing competitive generalist models from a fraction of the training data, enabling rapid iteration as the frontier advances. These findings open up possibilities for both generalist models with significantly increased data efficiency, as well as domain-specific models where no instruction or conversational data is available. Finally, we publicly release our SYNTH dataset and the suite of Baguettotron models under a permissive license, thus supporting open-source language model development.

Deep generative models have made tremendous progress in modeling complex data, often exhibiting generation quality that surpasses a typical human's ability to discern the authenticity of samples. Undeniably, a key driver of this success is enabled by the massive amounts of web-scale data consumed by these models. Due to these models' striking performance and ease of availability, the web will inevitably be increasingly populated with synthetic content. Such a fact directly implies that future iterations of generative models must contend with the reality that their training is curated from both clean data and artificially generated data from past models. In this paper, we develop a framework to rigorously study the impact of training generative models on mixed datasets (of real and synthetic data) on their stability. We first prove the stability of iterative training under the condition that the initial generative models approximate the data distribution well enough and the proportion of clean training data (w.r.t. synthetic data) is large enough. We empirically validate our theory on both synthetic and natural images by iteratively training normalizing flows and state-of-the-art diffusion models on CIFAR10 and FFHQ.

Disentangled representation learning aims to map independent factors of variation to independent representation components. On one hand, purely unsupervised approaches have proven successful on fully disentangled synthetic data, but fail to recover semantic factors from real data without strong inductive biases. On the other hand, supervised approaches are unstable and hard to scale to large attribute sets because they rely on adversarial objectives or auxiliary classifiers. We introduce XFactors, a weakly-supervised VAE framework that disentangles and provides explicit control over a chosen set of factors. Building on the Disentangled Information Bottleneck perspective, we decompose the representation into a residual subspace S and factor-specific subspaces T_1,ldots,T_K and a residual subspace S. Each target factor is encoded in its assigned T_i through contrastive supervision: an InfoNCE loss pulls together latents sharing the same factor value and pushes apart mismatched pairs. In parallel, KL regularization imposes a Gaussian structure on both S and the aggregated factor subspaces, organizing the geometry without additional supervision for non-targeted factors and avoiding adversarial training and classifiers. Across multiple datasets, with constant hyperparameters, XFactors achieves state-of-the-art disentanglement scores and yields consistent qualitative factor alignment in the corresponding subspaces, enabling controlled factor swapping via latent replacement. We further demonstrate that our method scales correctly with increasing latent capacity and evaluate it on the real-world dataset CelebA. Our code is available at https://github.com/ICML26-anon/XFactors{github.com/ICML26-anon/XFactors}.

Machine learning classification problems are widespread in bioinformatics, but the technical knowledge required to perform model training, optimization, and inference can prevent researchers from utilizing this technology. This article presents an automated tool for machine learning classification problems to simplify the process of training models and producing results while providing informative visualizations and insights into the data. This tool supports both binary and multiclass classification problems, and it provides access to a variety of models and methods. Synthetic data can be generated within the interface to fill missing values, balance class labels, or generate entirely new datasets. It also provides support for feature evaluation and generates explainability scores to indicate which features influence the output the most. We present CLASSify, an open-source tool for simplifying the user experience of solving classification problems without the need for knowledge of machine learning.

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on standard benchmark datasets. This persistent gap can be attributed to the black-box nature of deep learning architectures and the inherent limitations of current evaluation frameworks, which frequently lack the capacity to provide clear, quantitative insights into the specific strengths and weaknesses of different models, thereby complicating the selection of appropriate models for particular forecasting scenarios. To address these issues, we propose a synthetic data-driven evaluation paradigm, SynTSBench, that systematically assesses fundamental modeling capabilities of time series forecasting models through programmable feature configuration. Our framework isolates confounding factors and establishes an interpretable evaluation system with three core analytical dimensions: (1) temporal feature decomposition and capability mapping, which enables systematic evaluation of model capacities to learn specific pattern types; (2) robustness analysis under data irregularities, which quantifies noise tolerance thresholds and anomaly recovery capabilities; and (3) theoretical optimum benchmarking, which establishes performance boundaries for each pattern type-enabling direct comparison between model predictions and mathematical optima. Our experiments show that current deep learning models do not universally approach optimal baselines across all types of temporal features.The code is available at https://github.com/TanQitai/SynTSBench

Facial expression datasets remain limited in scale due to the subjectivity of annotations and the labor-intensive nature of data collection. This limitation poses a significant challenge for developing modern deep learning-based facial expression analysis models, particularly foundation models, that rely on large-scale data for optimal performance. To tackle the overarching and complex challenge, instead of introducing a new large-scale dataset, we introduce SynFER (Synthesis of Facial Expressions with Refined Control), a novel synthetic framework for synthesizing facial expression image data based on high-level textual descriptions as well as more fine-grained and precise control through facial action units. To ensure the quality and reliability of the synthetic data, we propose a semantic guidance technique to steer the generation process and a pseudo-label generator to help rectify the facial expression labels for the synthetic images. To demonstrate the generation fidelity and the effectiveness of the synthetic data from SynFER, we conduct extensive experiments on representation learning using both synthetic data and real-world data. Results validate the efficacy of our approach and the synthetic data. Notably, our approach achieves a 67.23% classification accuracy on AffectNet when training solely with synthetic data equivalent to the AffectNet training set size, which increases to 69.84% when scaling up to five times the original size. Code is available here.

We study the problem of model selection in causal inference, specifically for the case of conditional average treatment effect (CATE) estimation under binary treatments. Unlike model selection in machine learning, there is no perfect analogue of cross-validation as we do not observe the counterfactual potential outcome for any data point. Towards this, there have been a variety of proxy metrics proposed in the literature, that depend on auxiliary nuisance models estimated from the observed data (propensity score model, outcome regression model). However, the effectiveness of these metrics has only been studied on synthetic datasets as we can access the counterfactual data for them. We conduct an extensive empirical analysis to judge the performance of these metrics introduced in the literature, and novel ones introduced in this work, where we utilize the latest advances in generative modeling to incorporate multiple realistic datasets. Our analysis suggests novel model selection strategies based on careful hyperparameter tuning of CATE estimators and causal ensembling.

The advancement of large language models (LLMs) is critically dependent on the availability of high-quality datasets for Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), alignment tasks like Direct Preference Optimization (DPO), etc. In this work, we present a comprehensive synthetic data generation framework that facilitates scalable, configurable, and high-fidelity generation of synthetic data tailored for these training paradigms. Our approach employs a modular and configuration-based pipeline capable of modeling complex dialogue flows with minimal manual intervention. This framework uses a dual-stage quality tagging mechanism, combining heuristic rules and LLM-based evaluations, to automatically filter and score data extracted from OASST-formatted conversations, ensuring the curation of high-quality dialogue samples. The resulting datasets are structured under a flexible schema supporting both SFT and DPO use cases, enabling seamless integration into diverse training workflows. Together, these innovations offer a robust solution for generating and managing synthetic conversational data at scale, significantly reducing the overhead of data preparation in LLM training pipelines.

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) are pretrained on series from diverse domains, where demand series make up only a small fraction. Demand data has properties that such corpora rarely contain: Short histories, frequent zeros, censoring by stock-outs, and exogenous events that the series does not record. To this end, we propose EXAONE Demand, built on 1) a demand-specific corpus and 2) a demand-aware adapter. For the corpus, we assemble 11.3M series and 48.4B observations from 73 sources, and a synthetic generator supplies the behaviour that open demand data under-represents. For the adapter, we attach low-rank branches to a frozen general-domain backbone, one for each of the four demand classes (smooth, intermittent, erratic, and lumpy), and a router that reads eight scale-free statistics of the input series decides how much each branch contributes. We build EXAONE Demand in two versions, one trained on real-world and synthetic demand together and one trained on the synthetic corpus alone. On 22 held-out datasets, both versions outperform 36 TSFMs, and real-world demand adds a gain over synthetic data alone.

Large language models (LLMs) show great potential for synthetic data generation. This work shows that useful data can be synthetically generated even for tasks that cannot be solved directly by the LLM: we show that, for problems with structured outputs, it is possible to prompt an LLM to perform the task in the opposite direction, to generate plausible text for the target structure. Leveraging the asymmetry in task difficulty makes it possible to produce large-scale, high-quality data for complex tasks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach on closed information extraction, where collecting ground-truth data is challenging, and no satisfactory dataset exists to date. We synthetically generate a dataset of 1.8M data points, demonstrate its superior quality compared to existing datasets in a human evaluation and use it to finetune small models (220M and 770M parameters). The models we introduce, SynthIE, outperform existing baselines of comparable size with a substantial gap of 57 and 79 absolute points in micro and macro F1, respectively. Code, data, and models are available at https://github.com/epfl-dlab/SynthIE.

Recent advances in computer vision have shown promising results in image generation. Diffusion probabilistic models in particular have generated realistic images from textual input, as demonstrated by DALL-E 2, Imagen and Stable Diffusion. However, their use in medicine, where image data typically comprises three-dimensional volumes, has not been systematically evaluated. Synthetic images may play a crucial role in privacy preserving artificial intelligence and can also be used to augment small datasets. Here we show that diffusion probabilistic models can synthesize high quality medical imaging data, which we show for Magnetic Resonance Images (MRI) and Computed Tomography (CT) images. We provide quantitative measurements of their performance through a reader study with two medical experts who rated the quality of the synthesized images in three categories: Realistic image appearance, anatomical correctness and consistency between slices. Furthermore, we demonstrate that synthetic images can be used in a self-supervised pre-training and improve the performance of breast segmentation models when data is scarce (dice score 0.91 vs. 0.95 without vs. with synthetic data). The code is publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/FirasGit/medicaldiffusion.

The success of Large Language Models (LLMs) is inherently linked to the availability of vast, diverse, and high-quality data for training and evaluation. However, the growth rate of high-quality data is significantly outpaced by the expansion of training datasets, leading to a looming data exhaustion crisis. This underscores the urgent need to enhance data efficiency and explore new data sources. In this context, synthetic data has emerged as a promising solution. Currently, data generation primarily consists of two major approaches: data augmentation and synthesis. This paper comprehensively reviews and summarizes data generation techniques throughout the lifecycle of LLMs, including data preparation, pre-training, fine-tuning, instruction-tuning, preference alignment, and applications. Furthermore, We discuss the current constraints faced by these methods and investigate potential pathways for future development and research. Our aspiration is to equip researchers with a clear understanding of these methodologies, enabling them to swiftly identify appropriate data generation strategies in the construction of LLMs, while providing valuable insights for future exploration.

The widespread adoption of synthetic data raises new questions about how models generating the data can influence other large language models (LLMs) via distilled data. To start, our work exhaustively characterizes the impact of passive inheritance of model properties by systematically studying the consequences of synthetic data integration. We provide one of the most comprehensive studies to-date of how the source of synthetic data shapes models' internal biases, calibration and generations' textual attributes and preferences. We find that models are surprisingly sensitive towards certain attributes even when the synthetic data prompts appear "neutral". which invites the question whether this sensitivity can be exploited for good. Our findings invite the question can we explicitly steer the models towards the properties we want at test time by exploiting the data generation process? This would have historically been considered infeasible due to the cost of collecting data with a specific characteristic or objective in mind. However, improvement in the quality of synthetic data, as well as a shift towards general-purpose models designed to follow a diverse way of instructions, means this question is timely. We propose active inheritance as a term to describe intentionally constraining synthetic data according to a non-differentiable objective. We demonstrate how active inheritance can steer the generation profiles of models towards desirable non-differentiable attributes, e.g. high lexical diversity or low toxicity.

Synthetic data (SIM) drawn from simulators have emerged as a popular alternative for training models where acquiring annotated real-world images is difficult. However, transferring models trained on synthetic images to real-world applications can be challenging due to appearance disparities. A commonly employed solution to counter this SIM2REAL gap is unsupervised domain adaptation, where models are trained using labeled SIM data and unlabeled REAL data. Mispredictions made by such SIM2REAL adapted models are often associated with miscalibration - stemming from overconfident predictions on real data. In this paper, we introduce AUGCAL, a simple training-time patch for unsupervised adaptation that improves SIM2REAL adapted models by - (1) reducing overall miscalibration, (2) reducing overconfidence in incorrect predictions and (3) improving confidence score reliability by better guiding misclassification detection - all while retaining or improving SIM2REAL performance. Given a base SIM2REAL adaptation algorithm, at training time, AUGCAL involves replacing vanilla SIM images with strongly augmented views (AUG intervention) and additionally optimizing for a training time calibration loss on augmented SIM predictions (CAL intervention). We motivate AUGCAL using a brief analytical justification of how to reduce miscalibration on unlabeled REAL data. Through our experiments, we empirically show the efficacy of AUGCAL across multiple adaptation methods, backbones, tasks and shifts.

The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) has accentuated the need for diverse, high-quality pre-training data. Synthetic data emerges as a viable solution to the challenges of data scarcity and inaccessibility. While previous literature has focused predominantly on the quality and quantity of real data, our work enables the measurement of diversity in synthetic data and explores its impact on LLM performance. We study the downstream effects of synthetic data diversity during both the pre-training and fine-tuning stages by introducing a new diversity metric, LLM cluster-agent, designed to evaluate the diversity of synthetic datasets. Through a series of controlled experiments with models of 350M and 1.4B parameters, we demonstrate that the proposed cluster-based LLM scoring of diversity correlates positively with both pre-training and supervised fine-tuning performance. Our findings also reveal that synthetic data diversity in pre-training affects supervised fine-tuning more significantly than pre-training itself, even for smaller models. We hope this study advances our understanding of the optimal use of synthetic data in LLM training and opens new avenues for efficient data generation processes.

Cluster analysis relies on effective benchmarks for evaluating and comparing different algorithms. Simulation studies on synthetic data are popular because important features of the data sets, such as the overlap between clusters, or the variation in cluster shapes, can be effectively varied. Unfortunately, creating evaluation scenarios is often laborious, as practitioners must translate higher-level scenario descriptions like "clusters with very different shapes" into lower-level geometric parameters such as cluster centers, covariance matrices, etc. To make benchmarks more convenient and informative, we propose synthetic data generation based on direct specification of high-level scenarios, either through verbal descriptions or high-level geometric parameters. Our open-source Python package repliclust implements this workflow, making it easy to set up interpretable and reproducible benchmarks for cluster analysis. A demo of data generation from verbal inputs is available at https://demo.repliclust.org.

Inspired by the principle of deliberate practice in human learning, we propose Deliberate Practice for Synthetic Data Generation (DP), a novel framework that improves sample efficiency through dynamic synthetic data generation. Prior work has shown that scaling synthetic data is inherently challenging, as naively adding new data leads to diminishing returns. To address this, pruning has been identified as a key mechanism for improving scaling, enabling models to focus on the most informative synthetic samples. Rather than generating a large dataset and pruning it afterward, DP efficiently approximates the direct generation of informative samples. We theoretically show how training on challenging, informative examples improves scaling laws and empirically validate that DP achieves better scaling performance with significantly fewer training samples and iterations. On ImageNet-100, DP generates 3.4x fewer samples and requires six times fewer iterations, while on ImageNet-1k, it generates 8x fewer samples with a 30 percent reduction in iterations, all while achieving superior performance compared to prior work.

There are many different causal effect estimators in causal inference. However, it is unclear how to choose between these estimators because there is no ground-truth for causal effects. A commonly used option is to simulate synthetic data, where the ground-truth is known. However, the best causal estimators on synthetic data are unlikely to be the best causal estimators on real data. An ideal benchmark for causal estimators would both (a) yield ground-truth values of the causal effects and (b) be representative of real data. Using flexible generative models, we provide a benchmark that both yields ground-truth and is realistic. Using this benchmark, we evaluate over 1500 different causal estimators and provide evidence that it is rational to choose hyperparameters for causal estimators using predictive metrics.

Relational Databases (RDBs) are the backbone of modern business, yet they lack foundation models comparable to those in text or vision. A key obstacle is that high-quality RDBs are private, scarce and structurally heterogeneous, making internet-scale pre-training infeasible. To overcome this data scarcity, We introduce RDB-PFN, the first relational foundation model trained purely via synthetic data. Inspired by Prior-Data Fitted Networks (PFNs) where synthetic data generated from Structural Causal Models (SCMs) enables reasoning on single tables, we design a Relational Prior Generator to create an infinite stream of diverse RDBs from scratch. Pre-training on over 2 million synthetic single-table and relational tasks, RDB-PFN learns to adapt to any new database instantly via genuine in-context learning. Experiments verify RDB-PFN achieves strong few-shot performance on 19 real-world relational prediction tasks, outperforming graph-based and single-table foundation-model baselines (given the same DFS-linearized inputs), while using a lightweight architecture and fast inference. The code is available at https://github.com/MuLabPKU/RDBPFN

Synthetic data has been increasingly used to train frontier generative models. However, recent studies raise key concerns that iteratively retraining a generative model on its self-generated synthetic data may keep deteriorating model performance, a phenomenon often coined model collapse. In this paper, we investigate ways to modify the synthetic retraining process to avoid model collapse, and even possibly help reverse the trend from collapse to improvement. Our key finding is that by injecting information through an external synthetic data verifier, whether a human or a better model, synthetic retraining will not cause model collapse. Specifically, we situate our theoretical analysis in the fundamental linear regression setting, showing that verifier-guided retraining can yield near-term improvements, but ultimately drives the parameter estimate to the verifier's "knowledge center" in the long run. Our theory further predicts that, unless the verifier is perfectly reliable, these early gains will plateau and may even reverse. Indeed, our experiments across linear regression, Variational Autoencoders (VAEs) trained on MNIST, and fining-tuning SmolLM2-135M on the XSUM task confirm these theoretical insights.

This paper presents a summary of the Competition on Adapting Foundation Models for Face Recognition Using Synthetic Training Data (AFMFR), held at the 2026 International Joint Conference on Biometrics (IJCB 2026). The competition received a total of eight valid submissions from four distinct teams across two complementary tracks: a Full Data Track, in which participants adapt the CLIP ViT-L/14 foundation model using large-scale synthetic identity data, and a Limited Data Track, designed to reflect more resource-constrained adaptation regimes. All training data was generated exclusively using IDPERTURB. Submitted solutions are ranked based on verification and identification performance across a diverse suite of benchmarks, including LFW, CFP-FP, AgeDB-30, CALFW, CPLFW, IJB-B, IJB-C, and TinyFace, using the Borda count method. Fairness evaluation is additionally conducted on the RFW dataset across four demographic groups. The results demonstrate that adaptation of the CLIP foundation model with synthetic training data substantially improves over the off-the-shelf model and, in several cases, surpasses the baseline. Notably, full fine-tuning with Sub-Center ArcFace (DMSTI-Neurotechnology) leads the Full Data Track, while rank-stabilized LoRA adaptation (Idiap-BSP) proves most effective under limited-data conditions.

Large language models (LLMs) trained on internet-scale corpora can exhibit systematic biases that increase the probability of unwanted behavior. In this study, we examined potential biases towards synthetic vs. biological technological solutions across four domains (materials, energy, manufacturing, and algorithms). A sample of 5 frontier and 5 open-weight models were measured using 50 curated Bioalignment prompts with a Kelly criterion-inspired evaluation framework. According to this metric, most models were not bioaligned in that they exhibit biases in favor of synthetic (non-biological) solutions. We next examined if fine-tuning could increase the preferences of two open-weight models, Llama 3.2-3B-Instruct and Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct, for biological-based approaches. A curated corpus of ~22M tokens from 6,636 PMC articles emphasizing biological problem-solving was used first to fine-tune Llama 3B with a mixed corpus of continued training and instruction-formatted. This was then extended to Qwen 3B using instruction-formatted only. We found that QLoRA fine-tuning significantly increased the scoring of biological solutions for both models without degrading general capabilities (Holm-Bonferroni-corrected p < 0.001 and p < 0.01, respectively). This suggests that even a small amount of fine-tuning can change how models weigh the relative value of biological and bioinspired vs. synthetic approaches. Although this work focused on small open-weight LLMs, it may be extensible to much larger models and could be used to develop models that favor bio-based approaches. We release the benchmark, corpus, code, and adapter weights.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) advancement is heavily dependent on access to large-scale, high-quality training data. However, in specialized domains such as healthcare, data acquisition faces significant constraints due to privacy regulations, ethical considerations, and limited availability. While synthetic data generation offers a promising solution, conventional approaches typically require substantial real data for training generative models. The emergence of large-scale prompt-based models presents new opportunities for synthetic data generation without direct access to protected data. However, crafting effective prompts for domain-specific data generation remains challenging, and manual prompt engineering proves insufficient for achieving output with sufficient precision and authenticity. We review recent developments in automatic prompt optimization, following PRISMA guidelines. We analyze six peer-reviewed studies published between 2020 and 2024 that focus on automatic data-free prompt optimization methods. Our analysis reveals three approaches: feedback-driven, error-based, and control-theoretic. Although all approaches demonstrate promising capabilities in prompt refinement and adaptation, our findings suggest the need for an integrated framework that combines complementary optimization techniques to enhance synthetic data generation while minimizing manual intervention. We propose future research directions toward developing robust, iterative prompt optimization frameworks capable of improving the quality of synthetic data. This advancement can be particularly crucial for sensitive fields and in specialized domains where data access is restricted, potentially transforming how we approach synthetic data generation for AI development.

Causal discovery for both cross-sectional and temporal data has traditionally followed a dataset-specific paradigm, where a new model is fitted for each individual dataset. Such an approach limits the potential of multi-dataset pretraining. The concept of large causal models (LCMs) envisions a class of pre-trained neural architectures specifically designed for temporal causal discovery. Prior approaches are constrained to small variable counts, degrade with larger inputs, and rely heavily on synthetic data, limiting generalization. We propose a principled framework for LCMs, combining diverse synthetic generators with realistic time-series datasets, allowing learning at scale. Extensive experiments on synthetic, semi-synthetic and realistic benchmarks show that LCMs scale effectively to higher variable counts and deeper architectures while maintaining strong performance. Trained models achieve competitive or superior accuracy compared to classical and neural baselines, particularly in out-of-distribution settings, while enabling fast, single-pass inference. Results demonstrate LCMs as a promising foundation-model paradigm for temporal causal discovery. Experiments and model weights are available at https://github.com/kougioulis/LCM-paper/.

Reward models (RMs) are fundamental to aligning Large Language Models (LLMs) via human feedback, yet they often suffer from reward hacking. They tend to latch on to superficial or spurious attributes, such as response length or formatting, mistaking these cues learned from correlations in training data for the true causal drivers of quality (e.g., factuality, relevance). This occurs because standard training objectives struggle to disentangle these factors, leading to brittle RMs and misaligned policies. We introduce Crome (Causally Robust Reward Modeling), a novel framework grounded in an explicit causal model designed to mitigate reward hacking. Crome employs the following synthetic targeted augmentations during training: (1) Causal Augmentations, which are pairs that differ along specific causal attributes, to enforce sensitivity along each causal attribute individually, and (2) Neutral Augmentations, which are tie-label pairs varying primarily in spurious attributes, to enforce invariance along spurious attributes. Notably, our augmentations are produced without any knowledge of spurious factors, via answer interventions only along causal rubrics, that are identified by querying an oracle LLM. Empirically, Crome significantly outperforms standard baselines on RewardBench, improving average accuracy by up to 5.4% and achieving gains of up to 13.2% and 7.2% in specific categories. The robustness of Crome is further testified by the consistent gains obtained in a Best-of-N inference setting across increasing N, across various benchmarks, including the popular RewardBench (covering chat, chat-hard, safety, and reasoning tasks), the safety-focused WildGuardTest, and the reasoning-specific GSM8k.

Medical image foundation models (MIFMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential for a wide range of clinical tasks, yet their development is constrained by the scarcity, heterogeneity, and high cost of large-scale annotated datasets. Here, we propose RaSD (Randomized Synthesis and Disentanglement), a scalable framework for pre-training MIFMs entirely on synthetic data. By modeling anatomical structures and appearance variations with randomized Gaussian distributions, RaSD exposes models to sufficient multi-scale structural and appearance perturbations, forcing them to rely on invariant and task-relevant anatomical cues rather than dataset-specific textures, thereby enabling robust and transferable representation learning. We pre-trained RaSD on 1.2 million 3D volumes and 9.6 million 2D images, and extensively evaluated the resulting models across 6 imaging modalities, 48 datasets, and 56 downstream tasks. Across all evaluated downstream tasks, RaSD consistently outperforms training-from-scratch models, achieves the best performance on 17 tasks, and remains comparable to models pre-trained on large real datasets in most others. These results demonstrate that the capacity of synthetic data alone to drive robust representation learning. Our findings establish a paradigm shift in medical AI, demonstrating that synthetic data can serve as a "free lunch" for scalable, privacy-preserving, and clinically generalizable foundation models.

Chest X-rays (CXR) are the most common medical imaging study and are used to diagnose multiple medical conditions. This study examines the impact of synthetic data supplementation, using diffusion models, on the performance of deep learning (DL) classifiers for CXR analysis. We employed three datasets: CheXpert, MIMIC-CXR, and Emory Chest X-ray, training conditional denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPMs) to generate synthetic frontal radiographs. Our approach ensured that synthetic images mirrored the demographic and pathological traits of the original data. Evaluating the classifiers' performance on internal and external datasets revealed that synthetic data supplementation enhances model accuracy, particularly in detecting less prevalent pathologies. Furthermore, models trained on synthetic data alone approached the performance of those trained on real data. This suggests that synthetic data can potentially compensate for real data shortages in training robust DL models. However, despite promising outcomes, the superiority of real data persists.

Rising demand for mental health support has increased interest in using Large Language Models (LLMs) for counseling. However, adapting LLMs to this high-risk safety-critical domain is hindered by the scarcity of real-world counseling data due to privacy constraints. Synthetic datasets provide a promising alternative, but existing approaches often rely on unstructured or semi-structured text inputs and overlook structural dependencies between a client's cognitive, emotional, and behavioral states, often producing psychologically inconsistent interactions and reducing data realism and quality. We introduce Graph2Counsel, a framework for generating synthetic counseling sessions grounded in Client Psychological Graphs (CPGs) that encode relationships among clients' thoughts, emotions, and behaviors. Graph2Counsel employs a structured prompting pipeline guided by counselor strategies and CPG, and explores prompting strategies including CoT (Wei et al., 2022) and Multi-Agent Feedback (Li et al., 2025a). Graph2Counsel produces 760 sessions from 76 CPGs across diverse client profiles. In expert evaluation, our dataset outperforms prior datasets on specificity, counselor competence, authenticity, conversational flow, and safety, with substantial inter-annotator agreement (Krippendorff's α = 0.70). Fine-tuning an open-source model on this dataset improves performance on CounselingBench (Nguyen et al., 2025) and CounselBench (Li et al., 2025b), showing downstream utility. We also make our code and data public.