Daily Papers

Training high-quality diffusion models is computationally expensive, and inference-time guidance often adds further sampling cost. In this work, we introduce Swift, a simple yet effective self-guided training method that uses a frozen weak denoiser to improve a stronger model without adding inference overhead. For each noisy input, Swift extrapolates the clean regression target away from the weak denoiser's prediction, amplifying components that remain underfit. The weak guide can be an early training checkpoint, requires no backpropagation during main-model training, and is discarded afterward. The resulting model retains the original sampler and supports both conditional and unconditional generation without label dropout or an unconditional branch. We explain this mechanism through a spectral analysis of finite-time population gradient flow in an RKHS. With an early-stopped weak guide, we prove that a nonempty range of extrapolation strengths yields strictly lower posterior-mean error than matched standard training, despite shifting the regression target away from the posterior mean. Experiments on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet-256 demonstrate improvements across model scales and representations. In one ImageNet-256 configuration, Swift surpasses the baseline's best FID using roughly half the total training compute, including guide preparation and training overhead. On RAEv2, it achieves FID 1.15 without inference-time guidance and 0.99 with guidance. These results establish target extrapolation as an effective approach to weak-to-strong diffusion training with efficient single-model inference.

Scaling laws are used to plan multi-million-dollar training runs, but fitting those laws can itself cost millions. In modern large-scale workflows, assembling a sufficiently informative set of pilot experiments is already a major budget-allocation problem rather than a routine preprocessing step. We formulate scaling-law fitting as budget-aware sequential experimental design: given a finite pool of runnable experiments with heterogeneous costs, choose which runs to execute so as to maximize extrapolation accuracy in a high-cost target region. We then propose an uncertainty-aware method for sequentially allocating experimental budget toward the runs most useful for target-region extrapolation. Across a diverse benchmark of scaling-law tasks, our method consistently outperforms classical design-based baselines, and often approaches the performance of fitting on the full experimental set while using only about 10% of the total training budget. Our code is available at https://github.com/PlanarG/active-sl.

Diffusion transformers (DiTs) have emerged as a dominant architecture for text-to-image generation, yet their performance drops when generating at resolutions beyond their training range. Existing training-free approaches mitigate this by modifying inference-time attention behavior, often through Rotary Position Embeddings (RoPE) extrapolation combined with attention scaling. However, these strategies apply a uniform and content-agnostic scaling across RoPE components with distinct frequency characteristics, inducing a trade-off between preserving global structure and recovering fine detail. We introduce SEGA, a training-free method that dynamically scales attention across RoPE components according to the latent's spatial-frequency structure at each denoising step. This adaptive scaling improves both structural coherence and fine-detail fidelity. Experiments show that SEGA consistently improves high-resolution synthesis across multiple target resolutions, outperforming state-of-the-art training-free baselines.

We present VoiceStar, the first zero-shot TTS model that achieves both output duration control and extrapolation. VoiceStar is an autoregressive encoder-decoder neural codec language model, that leverages a novel Progress-Monitoring Rotary Position Embedding (PM-RoPE) and is trained with Continuation-Prompt Mixed (CPM) training. PM-RoPE enables the model to better align text and speech tokens, indicates the target duration for the generated speech, and also allows the model to generate speech waveforms much longer in duration than those seen during. CPM training also helps to mitigate the training/inference mismatch, and significantly improves the quality of the generated speech in terms of speaker similarity and intelligibility. VoiceStar outperforms or is on par with current state-of-the-art models on short-form benchmarks such as Librispeech and Seed-TTS, and significantly outperforms these models on long-form/extrapolation benchmarks (20-50s) in terms of intelligibility and naturalness. Code and models: https://github.com/jasonppy/VoiceStar. Audio samples: https://jasonppy.github.io/VoiceStar_web

The primary paradigm for multi-task training in natural language processing is to represent the input with a shared pre-trained language model, and add a small, thin network (head) per task. Given an input, a target head is the head that is selected for outputting the final prediction. In this work, we examine the behaviour of non-target heads, that is, the output of heads when given input that belongs to a different task than the one they were trained for. We find that non-target heads exhibit emergent behaviour, which may either explain the target task, or generalize beyond their original task. For example, in a numerical reasoning task, a span extraction head extracts from the input the arguments to a computation that results in a number generated by a target generative head. In addition, a summarization head that is trained with a target question answering head, outputs query-based summaries when given a question and a context from which the answer is to be extracted. This emergent behaviour suggests that multi-task training leads to non-trivial extrapolation of skills, which can be harnessed for interpretability and generalization.

We present LINGUIST, a method for generating annotated data for Intent Classification and Slot Tagging (IC+ST), via fine-tuning AlexaTM 5B, a 5-billion-parameter multilingual sequence-to-sequence (seq2seq) model, on a flexible instruction prompt. In a 10-shot novel intent setting for the SNIPS dataset, LINGUIST surpasses state-of-the-art approaches (Back-Translation and Example Extrapolation) by a wide margin, showing absolute improvement for the target intents of +1.9 points on IC Recall and +2.5 points on ST F1 Score. In the zero-shot cross-lingual setting of the mATIS++ dataset, LINGUIST out-performs a strong baseline of Machine Translation with Slot Alignment by +4.14 points absolute on ST F1 Score across 6 languages, while matching performance on IC. Finally, we verify our results on an internal large-scale multilingual dataset for conversational agent IC+ST and show significant improvements over a baseline which uses Back-Translation, Paraphrasing and Slot Catalog Resampling. To our knowledge, we are the first to demonstrate instruction fine-tuning of a large-scale seq2seq model to control the outputs of multilingual intent- and slot-labeled data generation.

A unified foundation model for medical time series -- pretrained on open access and ethics board-approved medical corpora -- offers the potential to reduce annotation burdens, minimize model customization, and enable robust transfer across clinical institutions, modalities, and tasks, particularly in data-scarce or privacy-constrained environments. However, existing generalist time series foundation models struggle to handle medical time series data due to their inherent challenges, including irregular intervals, heterogeneous sampling rates, and frequent missing values. To address these challenges, we introduce MIRA, a unified foundation model specifically designed for medical time series forecasting. MIRA incorporates a Continuous-Time Rotary Positional Encoding that enables fine-grained modeling of variable time intervals, a frequency-specific mixture-of-experts layer that routes computation across latent frequency regimes to further promote temporal specialization, and a Continuous Dynamics Extrapolation Block based on Neural ODE that models the continuous trajectory of latent states, enabling accurate forecasting at arbitrary target timestamps. Pretrained on a large-scale and diverse medical corpus comprising over 454 billion time points collect from publicly available datasets, MIRA achieves reductions in forecasting errors by an average of 10% and 7% in out-of-distribution and in-distribution scenarios, respectively, when compared to other zero-shot and fine-tuned baselines. We also introduce a comprehensive benchmark spanning multiple downstream clinical tasks, establishing a foundation for future research in medical time series modeling.

Extrapolation -- the ability to make inferences that go beyond the scope of one's experiences -- is a hallmark of human intelligence. By contrast, the generalization exhibited by contemporary neural network algorithms is largely limited to interpolation between data points in their training corpora. In this paper, we consider the challenge of learning representations that support extrapolation. We introduce a novel visual analogy benchmark that allows the graded evaluation of extrapolation as a function of distance from the convex domain defined by the training data. We also introduce a simple technique, temporal context normalization, that encourages representations that emphasize the relations between objects. We find that this technique enables a significant improvement in the ability to extrapolate, considerably outperforming a number of competitive techniques.

The premise of identifiable and causal representation learning is to improve the current representation learning paradigm in terms of generalizability or robustness. Despite recent progress in questions of identifiability, more theoretical results demonstrating concrete advantages of these methods for downstream tasks are needed. In this paper, we consider the task of intervention extrapolation: predicting how interventions affect an outcome, even when those interventions are not observed at training time, and show that identifiable representations can provide an effective solution to this task even if the interventions affect the outcome non-linearly. Our setup includes an outcome Y, observed features X, which are generated as a non-linear transformation of latent features Z, and exogenous action variables A, which influence Z. The objective of intervention extrapolation is to predict how interventions on A that lie outside the training support of A affect Y. Here, extrapolation becomes possible if the effect of A on Z is linear and the residual when regressing Z on A has full support. As Z is latent, we combine the task of intervention extrapolation with identifiable representation learning, which we call Rep4Ex: we aim to map the observed features X into a subspace that allows for non-linear extrapolation in A. We show that the hidden representation is identifiable up to an affine transformation in Z-space, which is sufficient for intervention extrapolation. The identifiability is characterized by a novel constraint describing the linearity assumption of A on Z. Based on this insight, we propose a method that enforces the linear invariance constraint and can be combined with any type of autoencoder. We validate our theoretical findings through synthetic experiments and show that our approach succeeds in predicting the effects of unseen interventions.

Linear position interpolation helps pre-trained models using rotary position embeddings (RoPE) to extrapolate to longer sequence lengths. We propose using linear position interpolation to extend the extrapolation range of models using Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi). We find position interpolation significantly improves extrapolation capability on upstream language modelling and downstream summarization and retrieval tasks.

Learning curve extrapolation aims to predict model performance in later epochs of training, based on the performance in earlier epochs. In this work, we argue that, while the inherent uncertainty in the extrapolation of learning curves warrants a Bayesian approach, existing methods are (i) overly restrictive, and/or (ii) computationally expensive. We describe the first application of prior-data fitted neural networks (PFNs) in this context. A PFN is a transformer, pre-trained on data generated from a prior, to perform approximate Bayesian inference in a single forward pass. We propose LC-PFN, a PFN trained to extrapolate 10 million artificial right-censored learning curves generated from a parametric prior proposed in prior art using MCMC. We demonstrate that LC-PFN can approximate the posterior predictive distribution more accurately than MCMC, while being over 10 000 times faster. We also show that the same LC-PFN achieves competitive performance extrapolating a total of 20 000 real learning curves from four learning curve benchmarks (LCBench, NAS-Bench-201, Taskset, and PD1) that stem from training a wide range of model architectures (MLPs, CNNs, RNNs, and Transformers) on 53 different datasets with varying input modalities (tabular, image, text, and protein data). Finally, we investigate its potential in the context of model selection and find that a simple LC-PFN based predictive early stopping criterion obtains 2 - 6x speed-ups on 45 of these datasets, at virtually no overhead.

Since the introduction of the transformer model by Vaswani et al. (2017), a fundamental question has yet to be answered: how does a model achieve extrapolation at inference time for sequences that are longer than it saw during training? We first show that extrapolation can be enabled by simply changing the position representation method, though we find that current methods do not allow for efficient extrapolation. We therefore introduce a simpler and more efficient position method, Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi). ALiBi does not add positional embeddings to word embeddings; instead, it biases query-key attention scores with a penalty that is proportional to their distance. We show that this method trains a 1.3 billion parameter model on input sequences of length 1024 that extrapolates to input sequences of length 2048, achieving the same perplexity as a sinusoidal position embedding model trained on inputs of length 2048 but training 11% faster and using 11% less memory. ALiBi's inductive bias towards recency also leads it to outperform multiple strong position methods on the WikiText-103 benchmark.

The notion of interpolation and extrapolation is fundamental in various fields from deep learning to function approximation. Interpolation occurs for a sample x whenever this sample falls inside or on the boundary of the given dataset's convex hull. Extrapolation occurs when x falls outside of that convex hull. One fundamental (mis)conception is that state-of-the-art algorithms work so well because of their ability to correctly interpolate training data. A second (mis)conception is that interpolation happens throughout tasks and datasets, in fact, many intuitions and theories rely on that assumption. We empirically and theoretically argue against those two points and demonstrate that on any high-dimensional (>100) dataset, interpolation almost surely never happens. Those results challenge the validity of our current interpolation/extrapolation definition as an indicator of generalization performances.

Standard Neural Networks can learn mathematical operations, but they do not extrapolate. Extrapolation means that the model can apply to larger numbers, well beyond those observed during training. Recent architectures tackle arithmetic operations and can extrapolate; however, the equally important problem of quantitative reasoning remains unaddressed. In this work, we propose a novel architectural element, the Neural Status Register (NSR), for quantitative reasoning over numbers. Our NSR relaxes the discrete bit logic of physical status registers to continuous numbers and allows end-to-end learning with gradient descent. Experiments show that the NSR achieves solutions that extrapolate to numbers many orders of magnitude larger than those in the training set. We successfully train the NSR on number comparisons, piecewise discontinuous functions, counting in sequences, recurrently finding minimums, finding shortest paths in graphs, and comparing digits in images.

We propose ExtraNeRF, a novel method for extrapolating the range of views handled by a Neural Radiance Field (NeRF). Our main idea is to leverage NeRFs to model scene-specific, fine-grained details, while capitalizing on diffusion models to extrapolate beyond our observed data. A key ingredient is to track visibility to determine what portions of the scene have not been observed, and focus on reconstructing those regions consistently with diffusion models. Our primary contributions include a visibility-aware diffusion-based inpainting module that is fine-tuned on the input imagery, yielding an initial NeRF with moderate quality (often blurry) inpainted regions, followed by a second diffusion model trained on the input imagery to consistently enhance, notably sharpen, the inpainted imagery from the first pass. We demonstrate high-quality results, extrapolating beyond a small number of (typically six or fewer) input views, effectively outpainting the NeRF as well as inpainting newly disoccluded regions inside the original viewing volume. We compare with related work both quantitatively and qualitatively and show significant gains over prior art.

On-policy distillation (OPD) trains a student to match the teacher's next-token distributions on the student's own trajectories and has yielded substantial empirical gains. Generalized variants allow the student to surpass the teacher by extrapolating an implicit reward in output space. The language-model head, however, attenuates this change anisotropically: much of the change encoded in the teacher's hidden states reaches the logits at a small fraction of its weight, and the sampled-token log-probability ratios on which output-space extrapolation relies inject noise that the extrapolation amplifies, making training unstable. We observe that reinforcement learning (RL) shifts a model's internal representations relative to its base checkpoint, and that the direction of this shift can be measured at every layer. Motivated by this observation, we propose RIDE (RL-Induced Direction Extrapolation), which extrapolates the RL-induced change directly in representation space: at every layer and token position, RIDE computes the residual between the teacher and its pre-RL checkpoint and regresses the student's hidden states toward targets displaced beyond the teacher along this residual. Conditioned on a sampled trajectory, this regression is equivalent to maximizing a linear directional reward defined by the residual under a quadratic penalty centered at the teacher, which makes explicit how the objective moves the student along the RL-induced direction while limiting its deviation from the teacher. Across four base/RL-teacher pairs spanning different scales, architectures, and pre-training lineages, RIDE approaches or exceeds the RL-trained teacher on every pair and is the only method whose mean does so, and it consistently outperforms output-space extrapolation, which degrades the student whenever the teacher is close to its base. Project page: https://github.com/xixixixixxxx/RIDE.

The largest experiments in machine learning now require resources far beyond the budget of all but a few institutions. Fortunately, it has recently been shown that the results of these huge experiments can often be extrapolated from the results of a sequence of far smaller, cheaper experiments. In this work, we show that not only can the extrapolation be done based on the size of the model, but on the size of the problem as well. By conducting a sequence of experiments using AlphaZero and Hex, we show that the performance achievable with a fixed amount of compute degrades predictably as the game gets larger and harder. Along with our main result, we further show that the test-time and train-time compute available to an agent can be traded off while maintaining performance.

We argue that extrapolation to examples outside the training space will often be easier for models that capture global structures, rather than just maximise their local fit to the training data. We show that this is true for two popular models: the Decomposable Attention Model and word2vec.

Scene extrapolation -- the idea of generating novel views by flying into a given image -- is a promising, yet challenging task. For each predicted frame, a joint inpainting and 3D refinement problem has to be solved, which is ill posed and includes a high level of ambiguity. Moreover, training data for long-range scenes is difficult to obtain and usually lacks sufficient views to infer accurate camera poses. We introduce DiffDreamer, an unsupervised framework capable of synthesizing novel views depicting a long camera trajectory while training solely on internet-collected images of nature scenes. Utilizing the stochastic nature of the guided denoising steps, we train the diffusion models to refine projected RGBD images but condition the denoising steps on multiple past and future frames for inference. We demonstrate that image-conditioned diffusion models can effectively perform long-range scene extrapolation while preserving consistency significantly better than prior GAN-based methods. DiffDreamer is a powerful and efficient solution for scene extrapolation, producing impressive results despite limited supervision. Project page: https://primecai.github.io/diffdreamer.

The extrapolation capability of Large Language Models (LLMs) based on Rotary Position Embedding is currently a topic of considerable interest. The mainstream approach to addressing extrapolation with LLMs involves modifying RoPE by replacing 10000, the rotary base of theta_n={10000}^{-2n/d} in the original RoPE, with a larger value and providing longer fine-tuning text. In this work, we first observe that fine-tuning a RoPE-based LLM with either a smaller or larger base in pre-training context length could significantly enhance its extrapolation performance. After that, we propose \textit{Scaling Laws of RoPE-based Extrapolation}, a unified framework from the periodic perspective, to describe the relationship between the extrapolation performance and base value as well as tuning context length. In this process, we also explain the origin of the RoPE-based extrapolation issue by \textit{critical dimension for extrapolation}. Besides these observations and analyses, we achieve extrapolation up to 1 million context length within only 16K training length on LLaMA2 7B and 13B.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can continually improve beyond their training budgets are able to solve increasingly difficult problems by adapting at test time, a property we refer to as extrapolation. However, standard reinforcement learning (RL) operates over fixed problem distributions and training budgets, which limits extrapolation amidst distribution shift at test time. To address this, we introduce RC, an iterative decoding algorithm that replaces standard autoregressive decoding during both training and inference. RC exploits an asymmetry between the response generation and summarization capabilities of LLMs to construct reasoning chains that consistently improve across iterations. Models trained to use RC can extrapolate and continually improve over reasoning horizons more than an order of magnitude longer than those seen during training. Empirically, training a 4B model with RC using a 16k-token training budget improves performance on HMMT 2025 from 40% to nearly 70% with 0.5m tokens at test time, outperforming both comparably sized models and many larger reasoning LLMs. Finally, we also show that models trained with RC can more effectively leverage existing scaffolds to further scale test-time performance, due to the improved summary-conditioned generation abilities learned through training.

Position modeling plays a critical role in Transformers. In this paper, we focus on length extrapolation, i.e., training on short texts while evaluating longer sequences. We define attention resolution as an indicator of extrapolation. Then we propose two designs to improve the above metric of Transformers. Specifically, we introduce a relative position embedding to explicitly maximize attention resolution. Moreover, we use blockwise causal attention during inference for better resolution. We evaluate different Transformer variants with language modeling. Experimental results show that our model achieves strong performance in both interpolation and extrapolation settings. The code will be available at https://aka.ms/LeX-Transformer.

The capacity to generalize beyond the range of training data is a pivotal challenge, often synonymous with a model's utility and robustness. This study investigates the comparative abilities of traditional machine learning (ML) models and deep learning (DL) algorithms in terms of extrapolation -- a more challenging aspect of generalization because it requires the model to make inferences about data points that lie outside the domain it has been trained on. We present an empirical analysis where both ML and DL models are trained on an exponentially growing function and then tested on values outside the training domain. The choice of this function allows us to distinctly showcase the divergence in performance when models are required to predict beyond the scope of their training data. Our findings suggest that deep learning models possess inherent capabilities to generalize beyond the training scope, an essential feature for real-world applications where data is often incomplete or extends beyond the observed range. This paper argues for a nuanced understanding of the structural differences between ML and DL models, with an emphasis on the implications for both theoretical research and practical deployment.

We study the problem of extrapolative controlled generation, i.e., generating sequences with attribute values beyond the range seen in training. This task is of significant importance in automated design, especially drug discovery, where the goal is to design novel proteins that are better (e.g., more stable) than existing sequences. Thus, by definition, the target sequences and their attribute values are out of the training distribution, posing challenges to existing methods that aim to directly generate the target sequence. Instead, in this work, we propose Iterative Controlled Extrapolation (ICE) which iteratively makes local edits to a sequence to enable extrapolation. We train the model on synthetically generated sequence pairs that demonstrate small improvement in the attribute value. Results on one natural language task (sentiment analysis) and two protein engineering tasks (ACE2 stability and AAV fitness) show that ICE considerably outperforms state-of-the-art approaches despite its simplicity. Our code and models are available at: https://github.com/vishakhpk/iter-extrapolation.

Reinforcement learning with offline data suffers from Q-value extrapolation errors. To address this issue, we first demonstrate that linear extrapolation of the Q-function beyond the data range is particularly problematic. To mitigate this, we propose guiding the gradual decrease of Q-values outside the data range, which is achieved through reward scaling with layer normalization (RS-LN) and a penalization mechanism for infeasible actions (PA). By combining RS-LN and PA, we develop a new algorithm called PARS. We evaluate PARS across a range of tasks, demonstrating superior performance compared to state-of-the-art algorithms in both offline training and online fine-tuning on the D4RL benchmark, with notable success in the challenging AntMaze Ultra task.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a central component of large language model (LLM) post-training. Unlike supervised fine-tuning (SFT), RLVR lets an LLM generate multiple candidate solutions and reinforces those that lead to a verifiably correct final answer. However, in practice, RLVR often requires thousands of training steps to reach strong performance, incurring substantial computation largely attributed to prolonged exploration. In this work, we make a surprising observation: during RLVR, LLMs evolve in a strongly linear manner. Specifically, both model weights and model output log-probabilities exhibit strong linear correlations with RL training steps. This suggests that RLVR predominantly amplifies trends that emerge early in training, rather than continuously discovering new behaviors throughout the entire optimization trajectory. Motivated by this linearity, we investigate whether future model states can be predicted from intermediate checkpoints via extrapolation, avoiding continued expensive training. We show that Weight Extrapolation produces models with performance comparable to standard RL training while requiring significantly less computation. Moreover, Logits Extrapolation consistently outperforms continued RL training on all four benchmarks by extrapolating beyond the step range where RL training remains stable.

This paper shows that two commonly used evaluation metrics for generative models, the Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) and the Inception Score (IS), are biased -- the expected value of the score computed for a finite sample set is not the true value of the score. Worse, the paper shows that the bias term depends on the particular model being evaluated, so model A may get a better score than model B simply because model A's bias term is smaller. This effect cannot be fixed by evaluating at a fixed number of samples. This means all comparisons using FID or IS as currently computed are unreliable. We then show how to extrapolate the score to obtain an effectively bias-free estimate of scores computed with an infinite number of samples, which we term textrm{FID}_infty and textrm{IS}_infty. In turn, this effectively bias-free estimate requires good estimates of scores with a finite number of samples. We show that using Quasi-Monte Carlo integration notably improves estimates of FID and IS for finite sample sets. Our extrapolated scores are simple, drop-in replacements for the finite sample scores. Additionally, we show that using low discrepancy sequence in GAN training offers small improvements in the resulting generator.

On-policy distillation (OPD) is widely used for LLM post-training. When pushed with a reward-extrapolation coefficient lambda > 1, the student can lift past the teacher in domain, but past a threshold lambda* the same step violates the output contract on structured-output tasks. In a single-position Bernoulli reduction, we derive a closed-form base-relative clip-safety threshold lambda*(p,b,c) determined by three measurable quantities: the teacher modal probability, the warm-start mass, and the importance-sampling clip strength. Above lambda*, the extrapolated fixed point exits the clip-safe region, changing training from format-preserving to format-collapsing. We extend the rule to calibrated K-ary listwise JSON tasks where a single binding equivalence class dominates the output contract and SFT retains parse headroom. On Amazon Fashion, three pre-registered tests--a fine-grid cliff interval, a budget-extension test, and a small-clip cross-prediction--fall within their locked prediction windows, with the small-clip value matching the closed-form prediction below grid resolution. Operating just below lambda*, ListOPD brings a 1.7B Qwen3 student to in-domain parity with an 8B-SFT baseline at one-fifth the parameters. The gain is driven primarily by format adherence: NDCG@1 on parsed outputs remains flat across lambda, while parse validity sharply changes at the predicted boundary. The cliff diagnostic is rubric-independent, whereas the parity claim uses a Gemini-graded rubric and inherits that evaluator's exposure.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has become a dominant paradigm for improving reasoning in large language models (LLMs), yet the underlying geometry of the resulting parameter trajectories remains underexplored. In this work, we demonstrate that RLVR weight trajectories are extremely low-rank and highly predictable. Specifically, we find that the majority of downstream performance gains are captured by a rank-1 approximation of the parameter deltas, where the magnitude of this projection evolves near-linearly with training steps. Motivated by this, we propose a simple and compute-efficient method RELEX (REinforcement Learning EXtrapolation), which estimates the rank-1 subspace from a short observation window and extrapolates future checkpoints via linear regression, with no learned model required. Across three models (i.e., Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, Qwen3-4B-Base, and Qwen3-8B-Base), RELEX produces checkpoints that match or exceed RLVR performance on both in-domain and out-of-domain benchmarks, requiring as few as 15% steps of full RLVR training. Remarkably, RELEX is able to extrapolate far beyond the observation window at no training cost, predicting checkpoints up to 10-20times beyond the observed prefix with continued improvement (e.g., observe only the first 50 steps and extrapolate to 1000 steps). Our ablation analysis confirms the minimalist sufficiency of RELEX: neither increasing the subspace rank nor employing non-linear modeling yields further gains in extrapolation. Finally, we show that RELEX's success stems from a "denoising" effect: by projecting updates onto the rank-1 subspace, the model discards stochastic optimization noise that would otherwise degrade performance during extrapolation. Our code is available at https://github.com/weizhepei/RELEX.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

Flow-based generative models have become a strong framework for high-quality generative modeling, yet pretrained models are rarely used in their vanilla conditional form: conditional samples without guidance often appear diffuse and lack fine-grained detail due to the smoothing effects of neural networks. Existing guidance techniques such as classifier-free guidance (CFG) improve fidelity but double the inference cost and typically reduce sample diversity. We introduce Momentum Guidance (MG), a new dimension of guidance that leverages the ODE trajectory itself. MG extrapolates the current velocity using an exponential moving average of past velocities and preserves the standard one-evaluation-per-step cost. It matches the effect of standard guidance without extra computation and can further improve quality when combined with CFG. Experiments demonstrate MG's effectiveness across benchmarks. Specifically, on ImageNet-256, MG achieves average improvements in FID of 36.68% without CFG and 25.52% with CFG across various sampling settings, attaining an FID of 1.597 at 64 sampling steps. Evaluations on large flow-based models like Stable Diffusion 3 and FLUX.1-dev further confirm consistent quality enhancements across standard metrics.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) learns most aggressively from tokens that the model deems least likely. This helps acquire new behaviors, but also amplifies noisy or conflicting supervision and can overwrite useful pretrained knowledge. Through a unified policy-loss view, we revisit existing token-reweighting methods and show that they assign nonnegative coefficients to demonstrated tokens. Consequently, they can suppress or amplify supervised updates, but cannot reverse harmful features once learned. Moreover, larger training weights do not amount to feature extrapolation, since they change the optimization trajectory rather than scale a fixed SFT direction. We argue that reversal and extrapolation require a stable reference frame defined by a fixed SFT delta. Motivated by this, we propose SCALE (Selective Control of Adaptation via Local Entropy), an entropy-guided adaptation-strength-control method that freezes the pretrained model and the SFT delta and learns bounded token- and module-specific gates by minimizing predictive entropy alone. These gates suppress, reverse, or extrapolate frozen SFT features according to their alignment with entropy reduction. Across Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B, Qwen2.5-Math-7B, and Qwen3-4B-Base, SCALE achieves mathematical-reasoning averages of 37.84, 43.60, and 36.57, exceeding the strongest corresponding baselines while remaining competitive on general-retention benchmarks. It also attains the best average code-generation performance across HumanEval, HumanEval+, and MBPP for all three models. These results suggest that effective SFT correction can benefit from controlling how already learned residuals are used, rather than only modifying how they are learned.

Relative positional embeddings (RPE) have received considerable attention since RPEs effectively model the relative distance among tokens and enable length extrapolation. We propose KERPLE, a framework that generalizes relative position embedding for extrapolation by kernelizing positional differences. We achieve this goal using conditionally positive definite (CPD) kernels, a class of functions known for generalizing distance metrics. To maintain the inner product interpretation of self-attention, we show that a CPD kernel can be transformed into a PD kernel by adding a constant offset. This offset is implicitly absorbed in the Softmax normalization during self-attention. The diversity of CPD kernels allows us to derive various RPEs that enable length extrapolation in a principled way. Experiments demonstrate that the logarithmic variant achieves excellent extrapolation performance on three large language modeling datasets. Our implementation and pretrained checkpoints are released at https://github.com/chijames/KERPLE.git.

Photorealistic simulators are essential for the training and evaluation of vision-centric autonomous vehicles (AVs). At their core is Novel View Synthesis (NVS), a crucial capability that generates diverse unseen viewpoints to accommodate the broad and continuous pose distribution of AVs. Recent advances in radiance fields, such as 3D Gaussian Splatting, achieve photorealistic rendering at real-time speeds and have been widely used in modeling large-scale driving scenes. However, their performance is commonly evaluated using an interpolated setup with highly correlated training and test views. In contrast, extrapolation, where test views largely deviate from training views, remains underexplored, limiting progress in generalizable simulation technology. To address this gap, we leverage publicly available AV datasets with multiple traversals, multiple vehicles, and multiple cameras to build the first Extrapolated Urban View Synthesis (EUVS) benchmark. Meanwhile, we conduct quantitative and qualitative evaluations of state-of-the-art Gaussian Splatting methods across different difficulty levels. Our results show that Gaussian Splatting is prone to overfitting to training views. Besides, incorporating diffusion priors and improving geometry cannot fundamentally improve NVS under large view changes, highlighting the need for more robust approaches and large-scale training. We have released our data to help advance self-driving and urban robotics simulation technology.

Flow-matching models are now a mainstream method to image generation, but its adaptation to diverse downstream scenarios typically relies on post-training, which may cause conflicts among task-specific optimization objectives. Reinforcement learning enables direct optimization of task-specific rewards beyond the original models, yet trajectory-level optimization may incur high-variance gradients and cross-task interference. On-policy distillation (OPD) offers dense and stable supervision on student rollouts, but conventional teacher matching remains imitation-based. We propose DreOPD, a Degraded-reference extrapolative OPD method for flow-matching models that bridges these two paradigms. Our DreOPD converts implicit reward extrapolation into closed-form velocity regression, enabling extrapolative post-training with the stability of OPD. It further uses a mildly degraded reference to strengthen the teacher-reference contrast, yielding a clearer extrapolation direction. Experiments on single- and multi-teacher settings show that DreOPD outperforms OPD and multi-task RL baselines in average performance, while surpassing specialized teachers on most metrics.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

High-resolution images offer more information about scenes that can improve model accuracy. However, the dominant model architecture in computer vision, the vision transformer (ViT), cannot effectively leverage larger images without finetuning -- ViTs poorly extrapolate to more patches at test time, although transformers offer sequence length flexibility. We attribute this shortcoming to the current patch position encoding methods, which create a distribution shift when extrapolating. We propose a drop-in replacement for the position encoding of plain ViTs that restricts attention heads to fixed fields of view, pointed in different directions, using 2D attention masks. Our novel method, called LookHere, provides translation-equivariance, ensures attention head diversity, and limits the distribution shift that attention heads face when extrapolating. We demonstrate that LookHere improves performance on classification (avg. 1.6%), against adversarial attack (avg. 5.4%), and decreases calibration error (avg. 1.5%) -- on ImageNet without extrapolation. With extrapolation, LookHere outperforms the current SoTA position encoding method, 2D-RoPE, by 21.7% on ImageNet when trained at 224^2 px and tested at 1024^2 px. Additionally, we release a high-resolution test set to improve the evaluation of high-resolution image classifiers, called ImageNet-HR.

Many problems in astrophysics cover multiple orders of magnitude in spatial and temporal scales. While simulating systems that experience rapid changes in these conditions, it is essential to adapt the (time-) step size to capture the behavior of the system during those rapid changes and use a less accurate time step at other, less demanding, moments. We encounter three problems with traditional methods. Firstly, making such changes requires expert knowledge of the astrophysics as well as of the details of the numerical implementation. Secondly, some parameters that determine the time-step size are fixed throughout the simulation, which means that they do not adapt to the rapidly changing conditions of the problem. Lastly, we would like the choice of time-step size to balance accuracy and computation effort. We address these challenges with Reinforcement Learning by training it to select the time-step size dynamically. We use the integration of a system of three equal-mass bodies that move due to their mutual gravity as an example of its application. With our method, the selected integration parameter adapts to the specific requirements of the problem, both in terms of computation time and accuracy while eliminating the expert knowledge needed to set up these simulations. Our method produces results competitive to existing methods and improve the results found with the most commonly-used values of time-step parameter. This method can be applied to other integrators without further retraining. We show that this extrapolation works for variable time-step integrators but does not perform to the desired accuracy for fixed time-step integrators.

Length extrapolation has attracted considerable attention recently since it allows transformers to be tested on longer sequences than those used in training. Previous research has shown that this property can be attained by using carefully designed Relative Positional Encodings (RPEs). While these methods perform well on a variety of corpora, the conditions for length extrapolation have yet to be investigated. This paper attempts to determine what types of RPEs allow for length extrapolation through a thorough mathematical and empirical analysis. We discover that a transformer is certain to possess this property as long as the series that corresponds to the RPE's exponential converges. Two practices are derived from the conditions and examined in language modeling tasks on a variety of corpora. As a bonus from the conditions, we derive a new Theoretical Receptive Field (TRF) to measure the receptive field of RPEs without taking any training steps. Extensive experiments are conducted on the Wikitext-103, Books, Github, and WikiBook datasets to demonstrate the viability of our discovered conditions. We also compare TRF to Empirical Receptive Field (ERF) across different models, showing consistently matched trends on the aforementioned datasets. The code is available at https://github.com/OpenNLPLab/Rpe.

Looped language models can run more iterations at test time, but additional iterations need not help them solve longer problems. For sequential state tracking, final-answer supervision does not specify how far each iteration should advance, and repeated updates can change the scale of the recurrent state. We introduce Progress-Aligned Recurrence (PAR), which trains the prediction at iteration k to match the state after the first k operations and rescales recurrent states to their first-iteration norms. On swap-S_5, a Qwen2.5-0.5B model trained on at most 32 moves achieves 95.5\% mean full-state accuracy at 512 moves, or 16times the training length, compared with 55.7\% reported for RLT and 0.8\% for explicit chain of thought on the same backbone. Controlled S_5 ablations show that removing norm anchoring reduces the extrapolation factor from 16times to below 2.2times, and replacing progress-aligned targets with final-answer supervision reduces it to at most 8times. A learned completion readout selects when to answer without a supplied stopping depth. When intermediate labels are unavailable, prefix self-distillation induces the correspondence from shorter problem prefixes using only final answers. The gains apply across sequential state-tracking tasks, establishing the task structure required for depth extrapolation. These findings support training intermediate predictions and state scale together to make additional recurrent depth useful for longer problems.

The key of the out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is to generalize invariance from training domains to target domains. The variance risk extrapolation (V-REx) is a practical OOD method, which depends on a domain-level regularization but lacks theoretical verifications about its motivation and utility. This article provides theoretical insights into V-REx by studying a variance-based regularizer. We propose Risk Variance Penalization (RVP), which slightly changes the regularization of V-REx but addresses the theory concerns about V-REx. We provide theoretical explanations and a theory-inspired tuning scheme for the regularization parameter of RVP. Our results point out that RVP discovers a robust predictor. Finally, we experimentally show that the proposed regularizer can find an invariant predictor under certain conditions.

For improving image composition and aesthetic quality, most existing methods modulate the captured images by striking out redundant content near the image borders. However, such image cropping methods are limited in the range of image views. Some methods have been suggested to extrapolate the images and predict cropping boxes from the extrapolated image. Nonetheless, the synthesized extrapolated regions may be included in the cropped image, making the image composition result not real and potentially with degraded image quality. In this paper, we circumvent this issue by presenting a joint framework for both unbounded recommendation of camera view and image composition (i.e., UNIC). In this way, the cropped image is a sub-image of the image acquired by the predicted camera view, and thus can be guaranteed to be real and consistent in image quality. Specifically, our framework takes the current camera preview frame as input and provides a recommendation for view adjustment, which contains operations unlimited by the image borders, such as zooming in or out and camera movement. To improve the prediction accuracy of view adjustment prediction, we further extend the field of view by feature extrapolation. After one or several times of view adjustments, our method converges and results in both a camera view and a bounding box showing the image composition recommendation. Extensive experiments are conducted on the datasets constructed upon existing image cropping datasets, showing the effectiveness of our UNIC in unbounded recommendation of camera view and image composition. The source code, dataset, and pretrained models is available at https://github.com/liuxiaoyu1104/UNIC.

Autonomous coding agents solve repository issues by reading code, running commands, editing files, and submitting patches. Extra inference-time compute yields gains only when it produces a useful repair and supplies reliable evidence for choosing one. Three behaviors decide both, and we argue they are teachable rather than byproducts of scale, so a policy can carry them instead of a scaffold. Location diversity remains narrow, since attempts return to the same site and extra samples add no coverage. Edit diversity is left unexploited, since methodologies that differ resolve complementary issues no single run reaches. Verification misleads, since a test the agent writes for its own patch accepts many incorrect ones. Directing search by execution feedback and scoring each patch against its own reverted tree resolves 52.8% of SWE-bench Verified using 48.1% of the agent-steps an eight-sample baseline spends. Training moves these behaviors into the policy. On the 270 issues held out from SFT and RL training, weighted supervised fine-tuning raises pass@1 from 31.9% to 35.2% and pass@8 from 46.7% to 51.1%. A reinforcement objective then trains the verifier against gold-labeled repairs and incorrect variants, crediting the assertions that detect them. It raises pass@1 to 43.0% and pass@8 to 60.7%, lifts verifier precision from 26.8% to 41.7%, and more than halves false acceptance. Resolution improves on two of three out-of-distribution suites and verifier precision on all three, and the gains hold at 7B, 14B, and 30B against published coder baselines.

Despite advances, video diffusion transformers still struggle to generalize beyond their training length, a challenge we term video length extrapolation. We identify two failure modes: model-specific periodic content repetition and a universal quality degradation. Prior works attempt to solve repetition via positional encodings, overlooking quality degradation and achieving only limited extrapolation. In this paper, we revisit this challenge from a more fundamental view: attention maps, which directly govern how context influences outputs. We identify that both failure modes arise from a unified cause: attention dispersion, where tokens beyond the training window dilute learned attention patterns. This leads to quality degradation and repetition emerges as a special case when this dispersion becomes structured into periodic attention patterns, induced by harmonic properties of positional encodings. Building on this insight, we propose UltraViCo, a training-free, plug-and-play method that suppresses attention for tokens beyond the training window via a constant decay factor. By jointly addressing both failure modes, we outperform a broad set of baselines largely across models and extrapolation ratios, pushing the extrapolation limit from 2x to 4x. Remarkably, it improves Dynamic Degree and Imaging Quality by 233% and 40.5% over the previous best method at 4x extrapolation. Furthermore, our method generalizes seamlessly to downstream tasks such as controllable video synthesis and editing.

Reinforcement Learning (RL) is notoriously data-inefficient, which makes training on a real robot difficult. While model-based RL algorithms (world models) improve data-efficiency to some extent, they still require hours or days of interaction to learn skills. Recently, offline RL has been proposed as a framework for training RL policies on pre-existing datasets without any online interaction. However, constraining an algorithm to a fixed dataset induces a state-action distribution shift between training and inference, and limits its applicability to new tasks. In this work, we seek to get the best of both worlds: we consider the problem of pretraining a world model with offline data collected on a real robot, and then finetuning the model on online data collected by planning with the learned model. To mitigate extrapolation errors during online interaction, we propose to regularize the planner at test-time by balancing estimated returns and (epistemic) model uncertainty. We evaluate our method on a variety of visuo-motor control tasks in simulation and on a real robot, and find that our method enables few-shot finetuning to seen and unseen tasks even when offline data is limited. Videos, code, and data are available at https://yunhaifeng.com/FOWM .

A robot that observes people interacting with objects should be able to carry out later requests that refer back to those interactions. Such requests may specify a grasp target by the role it played in a past event rather than by its name or appearance. Moreover, the target may no longer be visible when the robot is asked to act. We present BeyondSCe, a zero-shot robotic grasping system for this event-referential setting. Given the event history and the current scene, the system identifies the requested object or part and localizes it for grasping. If the target is occluded, it combines an event prior recovered from the history with current scene geometry to select camera viewpoints likely to reveal the target. The system uses pretrained models without additional task-specific training. In real-robot experiments with a single wrist-mounted RGB-D camera, it achieves grasp success rates of 76% and 77% for initially visible and occluded targets, respectively, compared with 40% and 55% for the strongest baseline in each condition. On four additional scenes with heavy occlusion, it increases grasp success rates from 75% to 95% while reducing the mean number of views from 3.35 to 2.20, compared with an active-perception baseline given the target's ground-truth 3D bounding box.

Energy extrapolation is a well-established strategy for approaching quantum-chemical limits without performing prohibitively expensive calculations. Complete basis set extrapolation is widely used, whereas extrapolation across electronic structure methods remains much less developed. Method-Space Effective-Rank Correlation Energy Extrapolation (MERCE) is introduced as an adaptive effective-rank framework for estimating high-rank finite-basis correlation energies from second-order Moller-Plesset perturbation theory (MP2), coupled cluster with single and double excitations (CCSD), and CCSD with perturbative triples [CCSD(T)]. The method assigns adaptive effective ranks to MP2 and CCSD(T) from the local MP2-CCSD-CCSD(T) correlation energy pattern and fits a compact three-point extrapolation form for each system. A hierarchical model-selection protocol balances cross-dataset transferability, maximum dataset-level mean absolute error (MAE) ratios, robustness on developmental sets referenced to full configuration interaction (FCI), size-consistency defects, and performance for A24 noncovalent interaction energies. Across the chemically diverse benchmarks used during model development, the selected MERCE model substantially reduces CCSD(T) errors and frequently improves upon the tested higher-rank coupled cluster baselines. Transferability is further assessed using calculations performed only after the functional form and parameters were frozen. Formal nonadditivity is quantified using artificial noninteracting pairs and the actual A24 and selected S66 component calculations.

Reconstructing and predicting dynamic 3D scenes from multi-view videos is a foundational task for robotics, AR/VR, and digital twins. Recent physics-informed Gaussian Splatting methods achieve impressive future frame extrapolation but lack semantic awareness and suffer from large computational overhead. We introduce R5DGS, a framework that augments a physics-driven 4D Gaussian representation with compact Identity Encoding vectors, enabling precise Gaussian-to-object association. By constructing an offline CLIP-based object lookup table, we support open-vocabulary text prompting to retrieve and render object-specific Gaussians across arbitrary timestamps and viewpoints. Furthermore, we propose a rigid-body inference constraint that predicts and integrates physical dynamics exclusively for object centroids, propagating motion to associated Gaussians via relative transformations. This optimization yields a 11 FPS speedup during extrapolation without compromising trajectories plausibility.

Although the capabilities of large language models (LLMs) ideally scale up with increasing data and compute, they are inevitably constrained by limited resources in reality. Suppose we have a moderately trained LLM (e.g., trained to align with human preference) in hand, can we further exploit its potential and cheaply acquire a stronger model? In this paper, we propose a simple method called ExPO to boost LLMs' alignment with human preference. ExPO assumes that a medium-aligned model can be interpolated between a less-aligned (weaker) model, e.g., the initial SFT model, and a better-aligned (stronger) one, thereby directly obtaining this stronger model by extrapolating from the weights of the former two relatively weaker models. On the AlpacaEval 2.0 benchmark, we show that ExPO pushes models trained with less preference data (e.g., 10% or 20%) to reach and even surpass the fully-trained one, without any additional training. Furthermore, ExPO also significantly improves off-the-shelf DPO/RLHF models and exhibits decent scalability across model sizes from 7B to 70B. Our work demonstrates the efficacy of model extrapolation in exploiting LLMs' capabilities, suggesting a promising direction that deserves future exploration.

Recently, scaling reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) for large language models (LLMs) has emerged as an effective training paradigm for significantly improving model capabilities, which requires guiding the model to perform extensive exploration and learning, leading to substantial computational overhead and becoming a key challenge. To reduce the number of training steps, Prior work performs linear extrapolation of model parameters. However, the dynamics of model parameter updates during RLVR training remain insufficiently understood. To further investigate the evolution of LLMs during RLVR training, we conduct empirical experiments and find that the rank-1 subspace of the model does not evolve linearly, and its dominance over the original parameters is further amplified during LoRA training. Based on the above insights, we propose the Nonlinear Extrapolation of low-rank trajectories (NExt), a novel framework that models and extrapolates low-rank parameter trajectories in a nonlinear manner. Concretely, we first train the model using LoRA and extract the rank-1 subspace of parameter differences at multiple training steps, which is then used for the subsequent nonlinear extrapolation. Afterward, we utilized the extracted rank-1 subspace to train a predictor, which can model the trajectory of parameter updates during RLVR, and then perform the predict-extend process to extrapolate model parameters, achieving the acceleration of RLVR. To further study and understand NExt, we conduct comprehensive experiments that demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the method. Our method reduces computational overhead by approximately 37.5\% while remaining compatible with a wide range of RLVR algorithms and tasks. We release our code in https://github.com/RUCAIBox/NExt.

Recent advancements in video generation have enabled models to synthesize high-quality, minute-long videos. However, generating even longer videos with temporal coherence remains a major challenge, and existing length extrapolation methods lead to temporal repetition or motion deceleration. In this work, we systematically analyze the role of frequency components in positional embeddings and identify an intrinsic frequency that primarily governs extrapolation behavior. Based on this insight, we propose RIFLEx, a minimal yet effective approach that reduces the intrinsic frequency to suppress repetition while preserving motion consistency, without requiring any additional modifications. RIFLEx offers a true free lunch--achieving high-quality 2times extrapolation on state-of-the-art video diffusion transformers in a completely training-free manner. Moreover, it enhances quality and enables 3times extrapolation by minimal fine-tuning without long videos. Project page and codes: https://riflex-video.github.io/{https://riflex-video.github.io/.}

Regression-based RL for flow models mandates sampling without classifier-free guidance (CFG) to align the rectification target with the reference marginal velocity. Extending Advantage-Weighted Rectification (AWR), which dynamically scales this regression target based on reward, to video generation encounters a cold-start pathology: unguided rollouts collapse into low-fidelity regions where intra-group reward gaps remain wide but no longer track perceptual quality, rendering the optimization target arbitrary. Conversely, utilizing guided rollouts to restore fidelity, while keeping the regression target tied to the guided sampling distribution, provably triggers a geometric guidance blow-up under exponential-moving-average (EMA) updates. We propose VideoAWR, which resolves this tension by untying sampling from the optimization anchor. An EMA reference policy generates guided rollouts to restore reward separability, while the trainable policy is rectified against the unguided conditional anchor. We prove this decoupled objective is mathematically exact: the centered advantage cancels the anchor in expectation, filtering out the reward-neutral guidance offset and retaining only the reward-correlated covariance increment. Consequently, inference runs single-branch and CFG-free, yet inference-time CFG preserves its original semantics. Furthermore, we introduce Decoupled Timestep Rectification, supervising each rollout at an independently sampled timestep without bias to improve sample efficiency. Experiments on Wan2.1-1.3B and 14B demonstrate stable optimization and superior visual and motion quality in both CFG-free and CFG-enabled regimes. Code is available at \pdfstartlink attr{/Border [0 0 0]} user{/Subtype /Link /A << /S /URI /URI (https://github.com/Fuzm7/FlowAWR) >>}% pearDark{VideoAWR}\pdfendlink.

Bayesian optimisation is a popular, surrogate model-based approach for optimising expensive black-box functions. Given a surrogate model, the next location to expensively evaluate is chosen via maximisation of a cheap-to-query acquisition function. We present an epsilon-greedy procedure for Bayesian optimisation in batch settings in which the black-box function can be evaluated multiple times in parallel. Our epsilon-shotgun algorithm leverages the model's prediction, uncertainty, and the approximated rate of change of the landscape to determine the spread of batch solutions to be distributed around a putative location. The initial target location is selected either in an exploitative fashion on the mean prediction, or -- with probability epsilon -- from elsewhere in the design space. This results in locations that are more densely sampled in regions where the function is changing rapidly and in locations predicted to be good (i.e close to predicted optima), with more scattered samples in regions where the function is flatter and/or of poorer quality. We empirically evaluate the epsilon-shotgun methods on a range of synthetic functions and two real-world problems, finding that they perform at least as well as state-of-the-art batch methods and in many cases exceed their performance.

Counterfactual generation seeks to sample outcomes under a hypothetical intervention or decision using observational data collected under the factual assignment mechanism. We develop a flow-matching approach that combines a sample-split, doubly robust training objective with a learned coupling between observed source outcomes and target outcomes drawn from a fitted conditional outcome model. To enable finite-step generation, we leverage a score-corrected stochastic sampler based on a Gaussian-smoothed interpolation. Our main theoretical contribution is a coupling-sensitive KL bound for constant-step Euler discretization: the error is controlled by moments of the source--target displacement under the chosen coupling, rather than by global uniform regularity of the velocity field, and has near-linear dependence on the ambient dimension. We also establish finite-sample non-parametric guarantees for the learned velocity and score fields when both the conditional outcome model and the source-target coupling are estimated from data. These bounds separate approximation, coupling-replacement, nuisance-estimation, generalization, and Monte Carlo errors and, combined with the sampler analysis, yield an end-to-end guarantee for counterfactual generation. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic image benchmarks support the coupling-dependent theory and show that, at finite discretization budgets, the stochastic sampler can outperform the corresponding deterministic ODE sampler.

We investigate large language model performance across five orders of magnitude of compute scaling in eleven recent model architectures. We show that average benchmark performance, aggregating over many individual tasks and evaluations as in the commonly-used BIG-Bench dataset, is decently predictable as a function of training compute scale. Specifically, when extrapolating BIG-Bench Hard performance across one order of magnitude in compute, we observe average absolute errors of 6 percentage points (pp). By contrast, extrapolation for individual BIG-Bench tasks across an order of magnitude in compute yields higher average errors of 18pp. Nonetheless, individual task performance remains significantly more predictable than chance. Overall, our work suggests compute scaling provides a promising basis to forecast AI capabilities in diverse benchmarks, though predicting performance in specific tasks poses challenges.

This paper studies the prediction of a target z from a pair of random variables (x,y), where the ground-truth predictor is additive E[z mid x,y] = f_star(x) +g_{star}(y). We study the performance of empirical risk minimization (ERM) over functions f+g, f in F and g in G, fit on a given training distribution, but evaluated on a test distribution which exhibits covariate shift. We show that, when the class F is "simpler" than G (measured, e.g., in terms of its metric entropy), our predictor is more resilient to heterogenous covariate shifts in which the shift in x is much greater than that in y. These results rely on a novel H\"older style inequality for the Dudley integral which may be of independent interest. Moreover, we corroborate our theoretical findings with experiments demonstrating improved resilience to shifts in "simpler" features across numerous domains.

The view synthesis problem--generating novel views of a scene from known imagery--has garnered recent attention due in part to compelling applications in virtual and augmented reality. In this paper, we explore an intriguing scenario for view synthesis: extrapolating views from imagery captured by narrow-baseline stereo cameras, including VR cameras and now-widespread dual-lens camera phones. We call this problem stereo magnification, and propose a learning framework that leverages a new layered representation that we call multiplane images (MPIs). Our method also uses a massive new data source for learning view extrapolation: online videos on YouTube. Using data mined from such videos, we train a deep network that predicts an MPI from an input stereo image pair. This inferred MPI can then be used to synthesize a range of novel views of the scene, including views that extrapolate significantly beyond the input baseline. We show that our method compares favorably with several recent view synthesis methods, and demonstrate applications in magnifying narrow-baseline stereo images.

Throughout the different phases of a drug development program, randomized trials are used to establish the tolerability, safety, and efficacy of a candidate drug. At each stage one aims to optimize the design of future studies by extrapolation from the available evidence at the time. This includes collected trial data and relevant external data. However, relevant external data are typically available as averages only, for example from trials on alternative treatments reported in the literature. Here we report on such an example from a drug development for wet age-related macular degeneration. This disease is the leading cause of severe vision loss in the elderly. While current treatment options are efficacious, they are also a substantial burden for the patient. Hence, new treatments are under development which need to be compared against existing treatments. The general statistical problem this leads to is meta-analysis, which addresses the question of how we can combine datasets collected under different conditions. Bayesian methods have long been used to achieve partial pooling. Here we consider the challenge when the model of interest is complex (hierarchical and nonlinear) and one dataset is given as raw data while the second dataset is given as averages only. In such a situation, common meta-analytic methods can only be applied when the model is sufficiently simple for analytic approaches. When the model is too complex, for example nonlinear, an analytic approach is not possible. We provide a Bayesian solution by using simulation to approximately reconstruct the likelihood of the external summary and allowing the parameters in the model to vary under the different conditions. We first evaluate our approach using fake-data simulations and then report results for the drug development program that motivated this research.

Evaluation metrics are central to binary target segmentation because they determine how progress is measured, compared, and interpreted. In this paper, target denotes the task-defined positive region to be segmented rather than a generic foreground object. It may be salient, camouflaged, transparent, glass-like, mirror-like, shadow-like, lesion-like, or defined by other application-specific semantics. We treat existing metrics as compositions of modular design choices rather than isolated formulas. The proposed framework decomposes each metric into five stages covering prediction representation, target extraction, target matching, score computation, and metric reporting. We use this framework to analyze representative metrics and show how newer metrics address specific limits in earlier protocols. The stage choices keep each metric's assumptions visible. We then discuss the design space opened by the framework and its implications for task-aware evaluation protocols. Reference code is available at https://github.com/lartpang/PySODMetrics.

LLM-based software engineering agents are increasingly used in real-world development tasks, often with access to sensitive data or security-critical codebases. Such agents could intentionally sabotage these codebases if they were misaligned. We investigate asynchronous monitoring, in which a monitoring system reviews agent actions after the fact. Unlike synchronous monitoring, this approach does not impose runtime latency, while still attempting to disrupt attacks before irreversible harm occurs. We treat monitor development as an adversarial game between a blue team (who design monitors) and a red team (who create sabotaging agents). We attempt to set the game rules such that they upper bound the sabotage potential of an agent based on Claude 4.1 Opus. To ground this game in a realistic, high-stakes deployment scenario, we develop a suite of 5 diverse software engineering environments that simulate tasks that an agent might perform within an AI developer's internal infrastructure. Over the course of the game, we develop an ensemble monitor that achieves a 6% false negative rate at 1% false positive rate on a held out test environment. Then, we estimate risk of sabotage at deployment time by extrapolating from our monitor's false negative rate. We describe one simple model for this extrapolation, present a sensitivity analysis, and describe situations in which the model would be invalid. Code is available at: https://github.com/UKGovernmentBEIS/async-control.

On-policy distillation (OPD) provides dense, per-token supervision for language model post-training, but its effectiveness is bottlenecked by teacher quality: external teachers suffer from distribution mismatch, while self-distillation with privileged conditioning is limited by in-context learning capacity. We propose RISE (Recursive Improvement via Self-Extrapolating Policy Distillation), which constructs a synthetic teacher directly from the model's own RLVR training trajectory. By extrapolating the displacement between the current checkpoint and a trailing anchor---in parameter space or output logit space---RISE converts a sparse outcome-induced parameter update into a dense token-level target, without any external model or privileged conditioning. RISE combines RLVR and OPD in a complementary loop: outcome rewards ground the extrapolation toward correct reasoning, while the extrapolated teacher refines token-level decisions. Moreover, since the teacher is refreshed every iteration as the student improves, distillation becomes a recursive improvement mechanism rather than a one-shot compression step. Experiments spanning mathematical reasoning, multi-domain STEM, code generation, and multi-turn agentic tasks show that RISE outperforms RLVR-only training and on-policy self-distillation across all settings.

Minute-scale cinematic video generation is a central challenge for generative video models. Existing paradigms address only fragments of this challenge: single-shot extrapolation preserves an anchor but lacks cinematic structure, while multi-shot storytelling imposes structure yet remains free to invent its visual states rather than continue an observed one. We define Multi-Shot Video Extrapolation (MSVE), a task that extends an observed frame or clip into a sequence of cinematically structured shots while preserving anchor state and advancing narrative intent. This setting operates under the finite per-call generation budget of short-video models. We identify three coupled bottlenecks: (1) global planners over-specify unsupported details from full screenplays; (2) shot-level prompts dilute task-relevant state when carrying the complete story; and (3) temporal chaining turns generated frames into a lossy memory in which identity, scene, object, and action state decay. MSVE reveals that long-video failure is not merely a limitation of context length, but a failure of context allocation. We propose Recursive Context Allocation (ReCA), an inference-time framework that allocates context hierarchically across planning and generation. ReCA recursively decomposes MSVE into context-bounded subproblems, invokes frozen generators at leaf nodes, and propagates structured state updates across time. To evaluate this setting, we further propose MSVE-Bench and NB-Q, a source-grounded protocol with prompts purpose-built for 3 to 5 minute long-video generation, a regime not addressed by existing short-clip benchmarks. Compared to previous methods, ReCA improves average normalized score by 8 to 16 percent over the strongest competing controller and improves multi-shot consistency metrics by 28 to 43 percent. View the project page at https://reca.vmv.re.

The world evolves following its dynamics, i.e., its laws of motion. However, leading video diffusion models largely fit the pixels without modeling how the pixels transit over time. Thus, they render visually plausible frames but may not accurately obey the laws. To capture the dynamics purely from pixels, we introduce Latent Dynamics Reasoning (LDR). LDR casts the latent transition as an explicit kinematic integration, where the lower-order dynamics are integrated numerically and the model regresses only the third- and higher-order residual that drives the rollout. For this integration to extrapolate better, LDR runs it on a structured latent rather than dense convolutional features. Following PhyWorld, we validate LDR on a controlled white-box physics benchmark spanning five tasks (uniform motion, parabola, collision, bouncing, looming), focusing on out-of-distribution scenarios that reveal whether a model has truly learned the underlying dynamics. LDR extrapolates the learned dynamics far better: the gap between its in- and out-of-distribution error is over 20times smaller than the video diffusion baseline's, under both single- and joint-task training at 256^2 resolution, while using 26times fewer parameters and running 143times faster. LDR can even generalize under severe shift: for example, trained only on red balls moving left-to-right, it correctly predicts the motion of a blue square moving right-to-left. To our knowledge, this is the first video world model that extrapolates learned dynamics beyond its training distribution. Project page: https://lat-dyn-reason.github.io/

Rectified Flow Transformers (RFTs) offer superior training and inference efficiency, making them likely the most viable direction for scaling up diffusion models. However, progress in generation resolution has been relatively slow due to data quality and training costs. Tuning-free resolution extrapolation presents an alternative, but current methods often reduce generative stability, limiting practical application. In this paper, we review existing resolution extrapolation methods and introduce the I-Max framework to maximize the resolution potential of Text-to-Image RFTs. I-Max features: (i) a novel Projected Flow strategy for stable extrapolation and (ii) an advanced inference toolkit for generalizing model knowledge to higher resolutions. Experiments with Lumina-Next-2K and Flux.1-dev demonstrate I-Max's ability to enhance stability in resolution extrapolation and show that it can bring image detail emergence and artifact correction, confirming the practical value of tuning-free resolution extrapolation.

Pretrained Language Models (LMs) have demonstrated ability to perform numerical reasoning by extrapolating from a few examples in few-shot settings. However, the extent to which this extrapolation relies on robust reasoning is unclear. In this paper, we investigate how well these models reason with terms that are less frequent in the pretraining data. In particular, we examine the correlations between the model performance on test instances and the frequency of terms from those instances in the pretraining data. We measure the strength of this correlation for a number of GPT-based language models (pretrained on the Pile dataset) on various numerical deduction tasks (e.g., arithmetic and unit conversion). Our results consistently demonstrate that models are more accurate on instances whose terms are more prevalent, in some cases above 70% (absolute) more accurate on the top 10\% frequent terms in comparison to the bottom 10\%. Overall, although LMs exhibit strong performance at few-shot numerical reasoning tasks, our results raise the question of how much models actually generalize beyond pretraining data, and we encourage researchers to take the pretraining data into account when interpreting evaluation results.

Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of large language models. While existing analyses identify that RLVR-induced changes are sparse, they primarily focus on the magnitude of these updates, largely overlooking their direction. In this work, we argue that the direction of updates is a more critical lens for understanding RLVR's effects, which can be captured by the signed, token-level log probability difference Δlog p between the base and final RLVR models. Through statistical analysis and token-replacement interventions, we demonstrate that Δlog p more effectively identifies sparse, yet reasoning-critical updates than magnitude-based metrics (\eg divergence or entropy). Building on this insight, we propose two practical applications: (1) a test-time extrapolation method that amplifies the policy along the learned Δlog p direction to improve reasoning accuracy without further training; (2) a training-time reweighting method that focuses learning on low-probability (corresponding to higher Δlog p) tokens, which improves reasoning performance across models and benchmarks. Our work establishes the direction of change as a key principle for analyzing and improving RLVR.

The attention mechanism in a Transformer architecture matches key to query based on both content -- the what -- and position in a sequence -- the where. We present an analysis indicating that what and where are entangled in the popular RoPE rotary position embedding. This entanglement can impair performance particularly when decisions require independent matches on these two factors. We propose an improvement to RoPE, which we call Polar Coordinate Position Embeddings or PoPE, that eliminates the what-where confound. PoPE is far superior on a diagnostic task requiring indexing solely by position or by content. On autoregressive sequence modeling in music, genomic, and natural language domains, Transformers using PoPE as the positional encoding scheme outperform baselines using RoPE with respect to evaluation loss (perplexity) and downstream task performance. On language modeling, these gains persist across model scale, from 124M to 774M parameters. Crucially, PoPE shows strong zero-shot length extrapolation capabilities compared not only to RoPE but even a method designed for extrapolation, YaRN, which requires additional fine tuning and frequency interpolation.

We revisit High-Resolution Range Profile (HRRP) classification with aspect-angle conditioning. While prior work often assumes that aspect-angle information is incomplete during training or unavailable at inference, we study a setting where angles are available for all training samples and explicitly provided to the classifier. Using three datasets and a broad range of conditioning strategies and model architectures, we show that both single-profile and sequential classifiers benefit consistently from aspect-angle awareness, with an average accuracy gain of about 7% and improvements of up to 10%, depending on the model and dataset. In practice, aspect angles are not directly measured and must be estimated. We show that a causal Kalman filter can estimate them online with a median error of 5{\textdegree}, and that training and inference with estimated angles preserves most of the gains, supporting the proposed approach in realistic conditions.

Offline optimization has recently emerged as an increasingly popular approach to mitigate the prohibitively expensive cost of online experimentation. The key idea is to learn a surrogate of the black-box function that underlines the target experiment using a static (offline) dataset of its previous input-output queries. Such an approach is, however, fraught with an out-of-distribution issue where the learned surrogate becomes inaccurate outside the offline data regimes. To mitigate this, existing offline optimizers have proposed numerous conditioning techniques to prevent the learned surrogate from being too erratic. Nonetheless, such conditioning strategies are often specific to particular surrogate or search models, which might not generalize to a different model choice. This motivates us to develop a model-agnostic approach instead, which incorporates a notion of model sharpness into the training loss of the surrogate as a regularizer. Our approach is supported by a new theoretical analysis demonstrating that reducing surrogate sharpness on the offline dataset provably reduces its generalized sharpness on unseen data. Our analysis extends existing theories from bounding generalized prediction loss (on unseen data) with loss sharpness to bounding the worst-case generalized surrogate sharpness with its empirical estimate on training data, providing a new perspective on sharpness regularization. Our extensive experimentation on a diverse range of optimization tasks also shows that reducing surrogate sharpness often leads to significant improvement, marking (up to) a noticeable 9.6% performance boost. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/cuong-dm/IGNITE

The field of novel view synthesis has made significant strides thanks to the development of radiance field methods. However, most radiance field techniques are far better at novel view interpolation than novel view extrapolation where the synthesis novel views are far beyond the observed training views. We design ViewExtrapolator, a novel view synthesis approach that leverages the generative priors of Stable Video Diffusion (SVD) for realistic novel view extrapolation. By redesigning the SVD denoising process, ViewExtrapolator refines the artifact-prone views rendered by radiance fields, greatly enhancing the clarity and realism of the synthesized novel views. ViewExtrapolator is a generic novel view extrapolator that can work with different types of 3D rendering such as views rendered from point clouds when only a single view or monocular video is available. Additionally, ViewExtrapolator requires no fine-tuning of SVD, making it both data-efficient and computation-efficient. Extensive experiments demonstrate the superiority of ViewExtrapolator in novel view extrapolation. Project page: https://kunhao-liu.github.io/ViewExtrapolator/.

In hybrid forecasting, a language model is often one of several available signals. A system may already have a market, crowd, or statistical forecast and must decide whether the model adds useful information or should be ignored. The relevant target is therefore not standalone model accuracy, but relative competence, defined as the model's marginal value beyond the available external forecast. Under Brier loss, we characterize when model disagreement can improve an external forecast and derive the gain from using domain-specific rather than global pooling weights. We then introduce a competence gate that estimates domain-level source weights from resolved outcomes, shrinks uncertain estimates toward a global weight, and recalibrates the pooled forecast. Across 2,357 resolved binary questions and five language models, the gate improves the main external baseline from 0.0771 to 0.0732 Brier and significantly outperforms global forecast combinations. The gain remains significant under leakage controls and against a leakage-safe time-series prior on the pooled structured set, with separate evidence on FRED. In contrast, the gate gives no significant improvement on the official ForecastBench market subset, where it largely defers to the market. Across four Qwen models, verbal confidence does not reliably identify when the model outperforms the external forecast, while outcome-estimated competence supports better abstention decisions. These results provide a practical approach for selective model use based on measured marginal value.

Constant-step stochastic approximation generally has a nonzero stationary mean error that persists under time averaging. This paper studies that error for nonlinear two-timescale recursions driven by an exogenous finite-state Markov chain. Under stated smoothness assumptions and conditions on the stationary distribution, we derive a first-order bias expansion whose error bound remains uniform as the slow step size becomes much smaller than the fast step size. Fast-manifold coordinates keep the associated covariance equation regular in this limit. For fast step η and slow step varepsilon, the expansion reveals a mixed contribution varepsilon^2/η alongside terms linear in each step size. This dependence matters for bias reduction: along power-law step-size paths, the bias exponents need not be integers, so Richardson--Romberg extrapolation requires weights matched to the path. An exactly solvable nonlinear Markov example verifies the coefficients. We verify localization for temporal-difference learning and compare finite-run extrapolation at equal update budgets. For finite runs, we bound the initialization error of tail averages on both timescales under an additional coupling assumption. In the special case of additive independent noise, signed third-moment cancellation yields a sharper remainder.

Transformer has taken the field of natural language processing (NLP) by storm since its birth. Further, Large language models (LLMs) built upon it have captured worldwide attention due to its superior abilities. Nevertheless, all Transformer-based models including these powerful LLMs suffer from a preset length limit and can hardly generalize from short training sequences to longer inference ones, namely, they can not perform length extrapolation. Hence, a plethora of methods have been proposed to enhance length extrapolation of Transformer, in which the positional encoding (PE) is recognized as the major factor. In this survey, we present these advances towards length extrapolation in a unified notation from the perspective of PE. Specifically, we first introduce extrapolatable PEs, including absolute and relative PEs. Then, we dive into extrapolation methods based on them, covering position interpolation and randomized position methods. Finally, several challenges and future directions in this area are highlighted. Through this survey, We aim to enable the reader to gain a deep understanding of existing methods and provide stimuli for future research.

We present BlockFusion, a diffusion-based model that generates 3D scenes as unit blocks and seamlessly incorporates new blocks to extend the scene. BlockFusion is trained using datasets of 3D blocks that are randomly cropped from complete 3D scene meshes. Through per-block fitting, all training blocks are converted into the hybrid neural fields: with a tri-plane containing the geometry features, followed by a Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) for decoding the signed distance values. A variational auto-encoder is employed to compress the tri-planes into the latent tri-plane space, on which the denoising diffusion process is performed. Diffusion applied to the latent representations allows for high-quality and diverse 3D scene generation. To expand a scene during generation, one needs only to append empty blocks to overlap with the current scene and extrapolate existing latent tri-planes to populate new blocks. The extrapolation is done by conditioning the generation process with the feature samples from the overlapping tri-planes during the denoising iterations. Latent tri-plane extrapolation produces semantically and geometrically meaningful transitions that harmoniously blend with the existing scene. A 2D layout conditioning mechanism is used to control the placement and arrangement of scene elements. Experimental results indicate that BlockFusion is capable of generating diverse, geometrically consistent and unbounded large 3D scenes with unprecedented high-quality shapes in both indoor and outdoor scenarios.

We propose Parabolic Position Encoding (PaPE), a parabola-based position encoding for vision modalities in attention-based architectures. Given a set of vision tokens-such as images, point clouds, videos, or event camera streams-our objective is to encode their positions while accounting for the characteristics of vision modalities. Prior works have largely extended position encodings from 1D-sequences in language to nD-structures in vision, but only with partial account of vision characteristics. We address this gap by designing PaPE from principles distilled from prior work: translation invariance, rotation invariance (PaPE-RI), distance decay, directionality, and context awareness. We evaluate PaPE on 8 datasets that span 4 modalities. We find that either PaPE or PaPE-RI achieves the top performance on 7 out of 8 datasets. Extrapolation experiments on ImageNet-1K show that PaPE extrapolates remarkably well, improving in absolute terms by up to 10.5% over the next-best position encoding. Code is available at https://github.com/DTU-PAS/parabolic-position-encoding.

The ability to extrapolate from short problem instances to longer ones is an important form of out-of-distribution generalization in reasoning tasks, and is crucial when learning from datasets where longer problem instances are rare. These include theorem proving, solving quantitative mathematics problems, and reading/summarizing novels. In this paper, we run careful empirical studies exploring the length generalization capabilities of transformer-based language models. We first establish that naively finetuning transformers on length generalization tasks shows significant generalization deficiencies independent of model scale. We then show that combining pretrained large language models' in-context learning abilities with scratchpad prompting (asking the model to output solution steps before producing an answer) results in a dramatic improvement in length generalization. We run careful failure analyses on each of the learning modalities and identify common sources of mistakes that highlight opportunities in equipping language models with the ability to generalize to longer problems.

Video world models are increasingly used as simulators, yet visual fidelity alone does not show that a model maintains the hidden state of the world. We examine this gap with an action-conditioned video Shell Game, a visual analog of S_5 state tracking that decouples visual rendering from compositing the hidden state underneath. Bidirectional and autoregressive Transformers, Mamba, and linear attention restricted to nonnegative transition eigenvalues all fit the training horizon of 5 swaps and then fall toward chance on longer swap chains (extrapolation) while still rendering plausible video with additional denoising steps providing no benefit. The pixel-based diffusion target never supervises the unseen hidden state, so the generated frames cannot carry it and the state has to live inside the architecture rather than in the tokens. For a Transformer, that architectural state is only an append-only KV cache, so the model has to re-derive the hidden arrangement from the whole history at every chunk. We find two mechanisms that do extrapolate, and both carry a state across chunks and revise it in place. Linear attention succeeds once its transition eigenvalues may be negative, and TTT with a nonlinear fast weight succeeds by updating the feature map through which it reads its own state. We further examine harder cases in dynamic world exploration tasks, and discuss the broader implications for building stateful video world models.

Transfer learning with a small amount of target data is an effective and common approach to adapting a pre-trained model to distribution shifts. In some situations, target data labels may be expensive to obtain, so we may only have access to a limited number of target data points. To make the most of a very small target dataset, we propose a lightweight, sample-efficient approach that learns a diverse set of features and adapts to a target distribution by interpolating these features. Our approach, Project and Probe (Pro^2), first learns a linear projection that maps a pre-trained embedding onto orthogonal directions while being predictive of labels in the source dataset. The goal of this step is to learn a variety of predictive features, so that at least some of them remain useful after distribution shift. Pro^2 then learns a linear classifier on top of these projected features using a small target dataset. Theoretically, we find that Pro^2 results in more sample-efficient generalization by inducing a favorable bias-variance tradeoff. Our experiments on four datasets, with multiple distribution shift settings for each, show that Pro^2 improves performance by 5-15% when given limited target data compared to prior methods such as standard linear probing.

Recent advancements in differentiable rendering and 3D reasoning have driven exciting results in novel view synthesis from a single image. Despite realistic results, methods are limited to relatively small view change. In order to synthesize immersive scenes, models must also be able to extrapolate. We present an approach that fuses 3D reasoning with autoregressive modeling to outpaint large view changes in a 3D-consistent manner, enabling scene synthesis. We demonstrate considerable improvement in single image large-angle view synthesis results compared to a variety of methods and possible variants across simulated and real datasets. In addition, we show increased 3D consistency compared to alternative accumulation methods. Project website: https://crockwell.github.io/pixelsynth/

Evaluating conditional coverage remains one of the most persistent challenges in assessing the reliability of predictive systems. Although conformal methods can give guarantees on marginal coverage, no method can guarantee to produce sets with correct conditional coverage, leaving practitioners without a clear way to interpret local deviations. To overcome sample-inefficiency and overfitting issues of existing metrics, we cast conditional coverage estimation as a classification problem. Conditional coverage is violated if and only if some classifier can achieve lower risk than the target coverage. Through the choice of a (proper) loss function, the resulting risk difference gives a conservative estimate of natural miscoverage measures such as L1 and L2 distance, and can even separate the effects of over- and under-coverage, and non-constant target coverages. We call the resulting family of metrics excess risk of the target coverage (ERT). We show experimentally that the use of modern classifiers provides much higher statistical power than simple classifiers underlying established metrics like CovGap. Additionally, we use our metric to benchmark different conformal prediction methods. Finally, we release an open-source package for ERT as well as previous conditional coverage metrics. Together, these contributions provide a new lens for understanding, diagnosing, and improving the conditional reliability of predictive systems.

We expect the generalization error to improve with more samples from a similar task, and to deteriorate with more samples from an out-of-distribution (OOD) task. In this work, we show a counter-intuitive phenomenon: the generalization error of a task can be a non-monotonic function of the number of OOD samples. As the number of OOD samples increases, the generalization error on the target task improves before deteriorating beyond a threshold. In other words, there is value in training on small amounts of OOD data. We use Fisher's Linear Discriminant on synthetic datasets and deep networks on computer vision benchmarks such as MNIST, CIFAR-10, CINIC-10, PACS and DomainNet to demonstrate and analyze this phenomenon. In the idealistic setting where we know which samples are OOD, we show that these non-monotonic trends can be exploited using an appropriately weighted objective of the target and OOD empirical risk. While its practical utility is limited, this does suggest that if we can detect OOD samples, then there may be ways to benefit from them. When we do not know which samples are OOD, we show how a number of go-to strategies such as data-augmentation, hyper-parameter optimization, and pre-training are not enough to ensure that the target generalization error does not deteriorate with the number of OOD samples in the dataset.

We propose a new approach for generative modeling based on training a neural network to be idempotent. An idempotent operator is one that can be applied sequentially without changing the result beyond the initial application, namely f(f(z))=f(z). The proposed model f is trained to map a source distribution (e.g, Gaussian noise) to a target distribution (e.g. realistic images) using the following objectives: (1) Instances from the target distribution should map to themselves, namely f(x)=x. We define the target manifold as the set of all instances that f maps to themselves. (2) Instances that form the source distribution should map onto the defined target manifold. This is achieved by optimizing the idempotence term, f(f(z))=f(z) which encourages the range of f(z) to be on the target manifold. Under ideal assumptions such a process provably converges to the target distribution. This strategy results in a model capable of generating an output in one step, maintaining a consistent latent space, while also allowing sequential applications for refinement. Additionally, we find that by processing inputs from both target and source distributions, the model adeptly projects corrupted or modified data back to the target manifold. This work is a first step towards a ``global projector'' that enables projecting any input into a target data distribution.

While scaling laws provide a reliable methodology for predicting train loss across compute scales for a single data distribution, less is known about how these predictions should change as we change the distribution. In this paper, we derive a strategy for predicting one loss from another and apply it to predict across different pre-training datasets and from pre-training data to downstream task data. Our predictions extrapolate well even at 20x the largest FLOP budget used to fit the curves. More precisely, we find that there are simple shifted power law relationships between (1) the train losses of two models trained on two separate datasets when the models are paired by training compute (train-to-train), (2) the train loss and the test loss on any downstream distribution for a single model (train-to-test), and (3) the test losses of two models trained on two separate train datasets (test-to-test). The results hold up for pre-training datasets that differ substantially (some are entirely code and others have no code at all) and across a variety of downstream tasks. Finally, we find that in some settings these shifted power law relationships can yield more accurate predictions than extrapolating single-dataset scaling laws.

Probabilistic generative models can be used for compression, denoising, inpainting, texture synthesis, semi-supervised learning, unsupervised feature learning, and other tasks. Given this wide range of applications, it is not surprising that a lot of heterogeneity exists in the way these models are formulated, trained, and evaluated. As a consequence, direct comparison between models is often difficult. This article reviews mostly known but often underappreciated properties relating to the evaluation and interpretation of generative models with a focus on image models. In particular, we show that three of the currently most commonly used criteria---average log-likelihood, Parzen window estimates, and visual fidelity of samples---are largely independent of each other when the data is high-dimensional. Good performance with respect to one criterion therefore need not imply good performance with respect to the other criteria. Our results show that extrapolation from one criterion to another is not warranted and generative models need to be evaluated directly with respect to the application(s) they were intended for. In addition, we provide examples demonstrating that Parzen window estimates should generally be avoided.

Transformers' ability to generalize to longer sequences than they have been trained on, known as length extrapolation, degrades as sequence length increases. Most of Relative Positional Encoding (RPE) methods address this problem by either adding constant linear biases or learning general biases, lacking the ability to specialize for different sequences. In this work, inspired by ALiBi, we propose Context-aware Biases for Length Extrapolation (Cable), that learns token-specific biases for each head in decoder-based transformers. Cable learns adaptive, context-aware biases, overcoming the limitations of fixed patterns by adding dynamic biases specific to each token in the sequence. Results show that when tested on a sequence length of 1024, a GPT-3 Medium (334M parameters) with our positional encoding, trained on a sequence length of 512, achieves better perplexity (-0.65) than a similar network with sinusoidal positional encoding trained on a sequence length of 1024. This is achieved with 48% lower memory usage, and only 3.5% higher training time. Furthermore, our method notably improves the extrapolation ability of existing RPE methods on the Edu-FineWeb10B and WikiText-103 datasets. Code is available at: https://github.com/axiomlab/Cable

The goal of predictive data attribution is to estimate how adding or removing a given set of training datapoints will affect model predictions. In convex settings, this goal is straightforward (i.e., via the infinitesimal jackknife). In large-scale (non-convex) settings, however, existing methods are far less successful -- current methods' estimates often only weakly correlate with ground truth. In this work, we present a new data attribution method (MAGIC) that combines classical methods and recent advances in metadifferentiation to (nearly) optimally estimate the effect of adding or removing training data on model predictions.

Deploying a new decision policy creates a cold-start problem for prediction models whose targets depend on the policy's actions: historical observations reflect earlier policies, while real observations under the new policy are not yet available. Simulation offers a way to address this gap by rolling out the target policy across counterfactual scenarios and using the resulting trajectories to learn how the system responds to those controls. The simulation-to-reality (Sim2Real) transfer of this simulator-trained model can then be backtested by evaluating it against real observations from past deployments. Using two real-world inventory-control deployments, we evaluate this process from three angles: simulator fidelity, zero-shot transfer to real behavior, and adaptation as real target-policy observations accumulate. The simulator-trained forecaster achieves lower point-estimate mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) than the same architecture trained on historical real data, reducing MAPE by 1.2-3.1 percentage points in Study 1 and 12.5-18.7 points in Study 2. After deployment, lightweight calibration using early real observations further reduces error by up to 2.5 percentage points. These results provide empirical evidence that simulator-generated counterfactual data can support cold-start forecasting under a new policy, and the resulting model can be further refined as real deployment data become available.

Learning-rate transfer can reduce the cost of training large language models: instead of sweeping learning rates at target scale, practitioners extrapolate from smaller runs. Existing approaches often assume that the optimal learning rate follows a log-linear scaling law in data scale and model size. We carefully examine and evaluate this scaling law. In our empirical study of GPT-2--style models from 22M to 707M parameters trained on 5B to 100B tokens, the optimal learning rate develops upward curvature at larger scales, leading to inaccurate extrapolation. We find that this curvature largely disappears when learning rates are replaced by effective learning rate (the step size in normalized weight space), and when data D extrapolation is used instead of model size N extrapolation. Next, we explain nonlinearity in scaling: weight-norm converges to equilibrium slower when optimal learning is small, requiring a larger step size to reduce the transient phase. Experiments with AdamH, which directly controls the effective learning rate, further support this explanation.

Predicting not only the target but also an accurate measure of uncertainty is important for many machine learning applications and in particular safety-critical ones. In this work we study the calibration of uncertainty prediction for regression tasks which often arise in real-world systems. We show that the existing definition for calibration of a regression uncertainty [Kuleshov et al. 2018] has severe limitations in distinguishing informative from non-informative uncertainty predictions. We propose a new definition that escapes this caveat and an evaluation method using a simple histogram-based approach. Our method clusters examples with similar uncertainty prediction and compares the prediction with the empirical uncertainty on these examples. We also propose a simple, scaling-based calibration method that preforms as well as much more complex ones. We show results on both a synthetic, controlled problem and on the object detection bounding-box regression task using the COCO and KITTI datasets.

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

Out-of-distribution (OOD) generalization is a favorable yet challenging property for deep neural networks. The core challenges lie in the limited availability of source domains that help models learn an invariant representation from the spurious features. Various domain augmentation have been proposed but largely rely on interpolating existing domains and frequently face difficulties in creating truly "novel" domains. Humans, on the other hand, can easily extrapolate novel domains, thus, an intriguing question arises: How can neural networks extrapolate like humans and achieve OOD generalization? We introduce a novel approach to domain extrapolation that leverages reasoning ability and the extensive knowledge encapsulated within large language models (LLMs) to synthesize entirely new domains. Starting with the class of interest, we query the LLMs to extract relevant knowledge for these novel domains. We then bridge the gap between the text-centric knowledge derived from LLMs and the pixel input space of the model using text-to-image generation techniques. By augmenting the training set of domain generalization datasets with high-fidelity, photo-realistic images of these new domains, we achieve significant improvements over all existing methods, as demonstrated in both single and multi-domain generalization across various benchmarks. With the ability to extrapolate any domains for any class, our method has the potential to learn a generalized model for any task without any data. To illustrate, we put forth a much more difficult setting termed, data-free domain generalization, that aims to learn a generalized model in the absence of any collected data. Our empirical findings support the above argument and our methods exhibit commendable performance in this setting, even surpassing the supervised setting by approximately 1-2\% on datasets such as VLCS.

In the realm of large-scale language models, a significant challenge arises when extrapolating sequences beyond the maximum allowable length. This is because the model's position embedding mechanisms are limited to positions encountered during training, thus preventing effective representation of positions in longer sequences. We analyzed conventional position encoding methods for long contexts and found the following characteristics. (1) When the representation dimension is regarded as the time axis, Rotary Position Embedding (RoPE) can be interpreted as a restricted wavelet transform using Haar-like wavelets. However, because it uses only a fixed scale parameter, it does not fully exploit the advantages of wavelet transforms, which capture the fine movements of non-stationary signals using multiple scales (window sizes). This limitation could explain why RoPE performs poorly in extrapolation. (2) Previous research as well as our own analysis indicates that Attention with Linear Biases (ALiBi) functions similarly to windowed attention, using windows of varying sizes. However, it has limitations in capturing deep dependencies because it restricts the receptive field of the model. From these insights, we propose a new position representation method that captures multiple scales (i.e., window sizes) by leveraging wavelet transforms without limiting the model's attention field. Experimental results show that this new method improves the performance of the model in both short and long contexts. In particular, our method allows extrapolation of position information without limiting the model's attention field.

Regression, the task of predicting a continuous scalar target y based on some features x is one of the most fundamental tasks in machine learning and statistics. It has been observed and theoretically analyzed that the classical approach, meansquared error minimization, can lead to suboptimal results when training neural networks. In this work, we propose a new method to improve the training of these models on regression tasks, with continuous scalar targets. Our method is based on casting this task in a different fashion, using a target encoder, and a prediction decoder, inspired by approaches in classification and clustering. We showcase the performance of our method on a wide range of real-world datasets.

Serial verification gates are a core reliability primitive in LLM harnesses: a candidate answer is returned only if k verifier calls all accept it. Under conditionally independent gates, the recent Odds Law (arXiv:2606.15712) shows that posterior log-odds grow linearly in k, so failure decays exponentially, and states that "a tight theory of partially correlated verifier cascades remains open." This note gives a minimal such theory. Modeling the per-instance false-accept rate on the generator's own errors as a latent variable αsim G (de Finetti), the exact cascade posterior is ell_k = ell_0 - ln m_k, with m_k the k-th moment of G. Then: (i) ell_k is concave in k for every non-degenerate G -- the Odds Law is its tangent at the first gate and an upper bound; (ii) for Beta(a,b) latents, failure decays polynomially, 1-r_k asymp k^{-b}, with correlation parameter ρ_v = 1/(a+b+1); (iii) a blind-spot atom of mass 1-π at α=1 caps the evidence extractable from any number of gates at -ln(1-π) nats, so reliability saturates below 1; (iv) letting the true-accept rate also vary (βsim H) yields a trichotomy -- gates eventually always help, plateau, or actively harm -- decided by the upper-tail exponents of G and H, with closed-form crossover k^dagger. The mechanism is survivorship: errors surviving gates are the high-α ones. The theory is measurable: R repeated verdicts per instance identify the first R moments of G, so two verdicts identify ρ_v; beta-binomial likelihood and NPMLE recover the reliability curve and the ill-posed ceiling. In synthetic tests, independence-based extrapolation underestimates failure by 20x at k=5 and ~3000x at k=10; the correlated fit at R=8 tracks held-out depths. The practical lever is decorrelation -- changing model family, modality, or evidence source -- not adding gates.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Classifier-free guidance (CFG) is a widely used technique for controllable generation in diffusion and flow-based models. Despite its empirical success, CFG relies on a heuristic linear extrapolation that is often sensitive to the guidance scale. In this work, we provide a principled interpretation of CFG through the lens of optimization. We demonstrate that the velocity field in flow matching corresponds to the gradient of a sequence of smoothed distance functions, which guides latent variables toward the scaled target image set. This perspective reveals that the standard CFG formulation is an approximation of this gradient, where the prediction gap, the discrepancy between conditional and unconditional outputs, governs guidance sensitivity. Leveraging this insight, we reformulate the CFG sampling as a homotopy optimization with a manifold constraint. This formulation necessitates a manifold projection step, which we implement via an incremental gradient descent scheme during sampling. To improve computational efficiency and stability, we further enhance this iterative process with Anderson Acceleration without requiring additional model evaluations. Our proposed methods are training-free and consistently refine generation fidelity, prompt alignment, and robustness to the guidance scale. We validate their effectiveness across diverse benchmarks, demonstrating significant improvements on large-scale models such as DiT-XL-2-256, Flux, and Stable Diffusion 3.5.

Effective data-driven PDE forecasting methods often rely on fixed spatial and / or temporal discretizations. This raises limitations in real-world applications like weather prediction where flexible extrapolation at arbitrary spatiotemporal locations is required. We address this problem by introducing a new data-driven approach, DINo, that models a PDE's flow with continuous-time dynamics of spatially continuous functions. This is achieved by embedding spatial observations independently of their discretization via Implicit Neural Representations in a small latent space temporally driven by a learned ODE. This separate and flexible treatment of time and space makes DINo the first data-driven model to combine the following advantages. It extrapolates at arbitrary spatial and temporal locations; it can learn from sparse irregular grids or manifolds; at test time, it generalizes to new grids or resolutions. DINo outperforms alternative neural PDE forecasters in a variety of challenging generalization scenarios on representative PDE systems.

Various data augmentation techniques have been recently proposed in image-based deep reinforcement learning (DRL). Although they empirically demonstrate the effectiveness of data augmentation for improving sample efficiency or generalization, which technique should be preferred is not always clear. To tackle this question, we analyze existing methods to better understand them and to uncover how they are connected. Notably, by expressing the variance of the Q-targets and that of the empirical actor/critic losses of these methods, we can analyze the effects of their different components and compare them. We furthermore formulate an explanation about how these methods may be affected by choosing different data augmentation transformations in calculating the target Q-values. This analysis suggests recommendations on how to exploit data augmentation in a more principled way. In addition, we include a regularization term called tangent prop, previously proposed in computer vision, but whose adaptation to DRL is novel to the best of our knowledge. We evaluate our proposition and validate our analysis in several domains. Compared to different relevant baselines, we demonstrate that it achieves state-of-the-art performance in most environments and shows higher sample efficiency and better generalization ability in some complex environments.

Autoregressive video diffusion models have emerged as a scalable paradigm for long video generation. However, they often suffer from severe extrapolation failure, where rapid error accumulation leads to significant temporal degradation when extending beyond training horizons. We identify that this failure primarily stems from the spectral bias of 3D positional embeddings and the lack of dynamic priors in noise sampling. To address these issues, we propose FLEX (Frequency-aware Length EXtension), a training-free inference-time framework that bridges the gap between short-term training and long-term inference. FLEX introduces Frequency-aware RoPE Modulation to adaptively interpolate under-trained low-frequency components while extrapolating high-frequency ones to preserve multi-scale temporal discriminability. This is integrated with Antiphase Noise Sampling (ANS) to inject high-frequency dynamic priors and Inference-only Attention Sink to anchor global structure. Extensive evaluations on VBench demonstrate that FLEX significantly outperforms state-of-the-art models at 6x extrapolation (30s duration) and matches the performance of long-video fine-tuned baselines at 12x scale (60s duration). As a plug-and-play augmentation, FLEX seamlessly integrates into existing inference pipelines for horizon extension. It effectively pushes the generation limits of models such as LongLive, supporting consistent and dynamic video synthesis at a 4-minute scale. Project page is available at https://ga-lee.github.io/FLEX_demo.

Predicting how a person's first-person view will evolve (what action will follow, what plan completes a task, whether an in-progress shot will score) is fundamentally under-specified: the same context admits many plausible futures, and a model trained to minimize prediction error is forced to hedge or average across them, getting it wrong either way. Two findings shape our approach. First, the future camera trajectory, the path the head carves through space, lets the model commit to one of those futures: it carries the operator's intent in a form fine enough to determine how an action will unfold, substantially outperforming language as a conditioning signal. Second, this same intent makes the trajectory itself partially predictable from the context at hand, enough that trajectory need not be observed at test time to recover most of the gain. We instantiate these findings as TrajPilot, a model that predicts candidate future trajectories from egocentric context and uses them to pilot action prediction in an action-aligned embedding space where language shapes the structure but is never used as a conditioning input. TrajPilot beats VLM and structured-planner baselines on procedural planning across Ego-Exo4D atomic, Ego-Exo4D Keystep, Ego4D GoalStep, and EgoPER, with the trajectory advantage widening with horizon (exactly where prior planners collapse) and holding under RGB-only camera-pose estimation. With the goal masked at inference, the same model performs goal-free anticipation, beating VLM baselines on Ego-Exo4D atomic and extending to EPIC-Kitchens-100 and basketball shot-outcome prediction.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have become indispensable in real-world applications. However, their widespread adoption raises significant safety concerns, particularly in responding to socially harmful questions. Despite substantial efforts to improve model safety through alignment, aligned models can still have their safety protections undermined by subsequent fine-tuning - even when the additional training data appears benign. In this paper, we empirically demonstrate that this vulnerability stems from the sensitivity of safety-critical low-rank subspaces in LLM parameters to fine-tuning. Building on this insight, we propose a novel training-free method, termed Low-Rank Extrapolation (LoX), to enhance safety robustness by extrapolating the safety subspace of an aligned LLM. Our experimental results confirm the effectiveness of LoX, demonstrating significant improvements in robustness against both benign and malicious fine-tuning attacks while preserving the model's adaptability to new tasks. For instance, LoX leads to 11% to 54% absolute reductions in attack success rates (ASR) facing benign or malicious fine-tuning attacks. By investigating the ASR landscape of parameters, we attribute the success of LoX to that the extrapolation moves LLM parameters to a flatter zone, thereby less sensitive to perturbations. The code is available at github.com/VITA-Group/LoX.

We present Position Interpolation (PI) that extends the context window sizes of RoPE-based pretrained LLMs such as LLaMA models to up to 32768 with minimal fine-tuning (within 1000 steps), while demonstrating strong empirical results on various tasks that require long context, including passkey retrieval, language modeling, and long document summarization from LLaMA 7B to 65B. Meanwhile, the extended model by Position Interpolation preserve quality relatively well on tasks within its original context window. To achieve this goal, Position Interpolation linearly down-scales the input position indices to match the original context window size, rather than extrapolating beyond the trained context length which may lead to catastrophically high attention scores that completely ruin the self-attention mechanism. Our theoretical study shows that the upper bound of interpolation is at least sim 600 times smaller than that of extrapolation, further demonstrating its stability. Models extended via Position Interpolation retain its original architecture and can reuse most pre-existing optimization and infrastructure.

As the rapid progression of practical applications based on Large Language Models continues, the importance of extrapolating performance has grown exponentially in the research domain. In our study, we identified an anomalous behavior in Transformer models that had been previously overlooked, leading to a chaos around closest tokens which carried the most important information. We've coined this discovery the "headache of Transformers". To address this at its core, we introduced a novel self-attention structure named Collinear Constrained Attention (CoCA). This structure can be seamlessly integrated with existing extrapolation, interpolation methods, and other optimization strategies designed for traditional Transformer models. We have achieved excellent extrapolating performance even for 16 times to 24 times of sequence lengths during inference without any fine-tuning on our model. We have also enhanced CoCA's computational and spatial efficiency to ensure its practicality. We plan to open-source CoCA shortly. In the meantime, we've made our code available in the appendix for reappearing experiments.

Extrapolation remains a grand challenge in deep neural networks across all application domains. We propose an operator learning method to solve time-dependent partial differential equations (PDEs) continuously and with extrapolation in time without any temporal discretization. The proposed method, named Diffusion-inspired Temporal Transformer Operator (DiTTO), is inspired by latent diffusion models and their conditioning mechanism, which we use to incorporate the temporal evolution of the PDE, in combination with elements from the transformer architecture to improve its capabilities. Upon training, DiTTO can make inferences in real-time. We demonstrate its extrapolation capability on a climate problem by estimating the temperature around the globe for several years, and also in modeling hypersonic flows around a double-cone. We propose different training strategies involving temporal-bundling and sub-sampling and demonstrate performance improvements for several benchmarks, performing extrapolation for long time intervals as well as zero-shot super-resolution in time.

We present Δ-UQ -- a novel, general-purpose uncertainty estimator using the concept of anchoring in predictive models. Anchoring works by first transforming the input into a tuple consisting of an anchor point drawn from a prior distribution, and a combination of the input sample with the anchor using a pretext encoding scheme. This encoding is such that the original input can be perfectly recovered from the tuple -- regardless of the choice of the anchor. Therefore, any predictive model should be able to predict the target response from the tuple alone (since it implicitly represents the input). Moreover, by varying the anchors for a fixed sample, we can estimate uncertainty in the prediction even using only a single predictive model. We find this uncertainty is deeply connected to improper sampling of the input data, and inherent noise, enabling us to estimate the total uncertainty in any system. With extensive empirical studies on a variety of use-cases, we demonstrate that Δ-UQ outperforms several competitive baselines. Specifically, we study model fitting, sequential model optimization, model based inversion in the regression setting and out of distribution detection, & calibration under distribution shifts for classification.

The "alignment tax" of post-training is typically framed as a drop in task accuracy. We show it also involves a severe loss of calibration, making models overconfident, less reliable, and model outputs less diverse. We show that this trade-off can be navigated effectively via a simple post-hoc intervention: interpolating between a model's weights before and after alignment. Crucially, this is not a strict trade-off. We find that the process consistently reveals Pareto-optimal interpolations - models that improve accuracy beyond both parents while substantially recovering the calibration lost during alignment. Our work demonstrates that simple model merging provides a computationally efficient method for mitigating the full scope of the alignment tax, yielding models that are more capable and more reliable.

Large language models (LLMs) have made remarkable advances in recent years, with scaling laws playing a critical role in this rapid progress. In this paper, we empirically investigate how a critical hyper-parameter, i.e., the global batch size, influences the LLM training prdocess. We begin by training language models ranging from 125 million to 2.6 billion parameters, using up to 300 billion high-quality tokens. Through these experiments, we establish a basic scaling law on model size and training data amount. We then examine how varying batch sizes and learning rates affect the convergence and generalization of these models. Our analysis yields batch size scaling laws under two different cases: with a fixed compute budget, and with a fixed amount of training data. Extrapolation experiments on models of increasing sizes validate our predicted laws, which provides guidance for optimizing LLM training strategies under specific resource constraints.

Supervised fine-tuning (SFT) typically maximizes the likelihood of every token in a demonstrated trajectory. However, an observed token can be non-unique, noisy, or misaligned with the model prior. Strictly fitting toward this one-hot target may be suboptimal, especially when the pretrained model encodes a rich knowledge prior. In this work, we reinterpret SFT as target distribution design: instead of studying only the loss objective, we analyze the token-level target that the loss drives the model to match. We introduce the Q-target framework, which decomposes SFT supervision into two explicit choices: (1) how strongly to rely on the observed token, and (2) how to allocate the remaining probability mass over alternatives. This perspective unifies many existing SFT variants as implicit choices of the target distribution Q. Building on this view, we propose Target-SFT which constructs the training objective directly from the desired target distribution. This method consistently outperforms across the ten reasoning dataset-model settings evaluated, showing the effectiveness of this target-based approach. Overall, our formulation reveals a more fundamental design principle for SFT training and opens a broader search space for SFT objectives.

This article introduces Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) with Distribution-Valued Outcomes (R3D), extending the standard RDD framework to settings where the outcome is a distribution rather than a scalar. Such settings arise when treatment is assigned at a higher level of aggregation than the outcome-for example, when a subsidy is allocated based on a firm-level revenue cutoff while the outcome of interest is the distribution of employee wages within the firm. Since standard RDD methods cannot accommodate such two-level randomness, I propose a novel approach based on random distributions. The target estimand is a "local average quantile treatment effect", which averages across random quantiles. To estimate this target, I introduce two related approaches: one that extends local polynomial regression to random quantiles and another based on local Fr\'echet regression, a form of functional regression. For both estimators, I establish asymptotic normality and develop uniform, debiased confidence bands together with a data-driven bandwidth selection procedure. Simulations validate these theoretical properties and show existing methods to be biased and inconsistent in this setting. I then apply the proposed methods to study the effects of gubernatorial party control on within-state income distributions in the US, using a close-election design. The results suggest a classic equality-efficiency tradeoff under Democratic governorship, driven by reductions in income at the top of the distribution.

Online conformal prediction can fail when predictions shape actions and actions determine which outcomes enter calibration. Standard adaptive methods may retain marginal coverage while systematically miscovering the counterfactual outcomes of rarely selected actions. This paper formalizes the failure through counterfactual coverage and introduces Propensity-Weighted Online Conformal Prediction, an inverse-propensity-weighted recursion that debiases calibration. A doubly robust variant further reduces nuisance bias to the product of outcome-model and propensity errors. Under positivity, the resulting coverage rate matches an information-theoretic lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Experiments on synthetic decision tasks, open bandit data, and financial rebalancing show that PW-OCP and DR-OCP improve counterfactual coverage and downstream regret without sacrificing prediction-set sharpness.

We study the degree of reliability of extrapolation of complex electromagnetic permittivity functions based on their analyticity properties. Given two analytic functions, representing extrapolants of the same experimental data, we examine how much they can differ at an extrapolation point outside of the experimentally accessible frequency band. We give a sharp upper bound on the worst case extrapolation error, in terms of a solution of an integral equation of Fredholm type. We conjecture and give numerical evidence that this bound exhibits a power law precision deterioration as one moves further away from the frequency band containing measurement data.

Minimax problems are notoriously challenging to optimize. However, we demonstrate that the two-timescale extragradient can be a viable solution. By utilizing dynamical systems theory, we show that it converges to points that satisfy the second-order necessary condition of local minimax points, under a mild condition. This work surpasses all previous results as we eliminate a crucial assumption that the Hessian, with respect to the maximization variable, is nondegenerate.

A robot's ability to anticipate the 3D action target location of a hand's movement from egocentric videos can greatly improve safety and efficiency in human-robot interaction (HRI). While previous research predominantly focused on semantic action classification or 2D target region prediction, we argue that predicting the action target's 3D coordinate could pave the way for more versatile downstream robotics tasks, especially given the increasing prevalence of headset devices. This study expands EgoPAT3D, the sole dataset dedicated to egocentric 3D action target prediction. We augment both its size and diversity, enhancing its potential for generalization. Moreover, we substantially enhance the baseline algorithm by introducing a large pre-trained model and human prior knowledge. Remarkably, our novel algorithm can now achieve superior prediction outcomes using solely RGB images, eliminating the previous need for 3D point clouds and IMU input. Furthermore, we deploy our enhanced baseline algorithm on a real-world robotic platform to illustrate its practical utility in straightforward HRI tasks. The demonstrations showcase the real-world applicability of our advancements and may inspire more HRI use cases involving egocentric vision. All code and data are open-sourced and can be found on the project website.

Generative world models provide rich predictions of how manipulation scenes may evolve toward task objectives, yet those futures do not directly expose the compact task variables required by control. When training supervises future prediction alone, terminal goal accuracy is not an explicit learning objective, even when geometric recovery is available. We present Entity-Level Goal Readout, a learned prediction-to-execution interface that makes the executable terminal goal an explicit output of a 3D trace world model. It combines object-centric pose prediction with translation grounded in observed depth to produce a compact goal in SE(3). A shared Pose-Native Executor consumes this fixed goal with online object-pose feedback for closed-loop control without rerunning the world model. Across five manipulation tasks, the pipeline achieves a mean success rate of 79.69%. Goal diagnostics directly measure terminal goal accuracy, while controlled translation perturbations characterize how execution degrades under goal error. Zero-shot deployment on a Franka arm achieves 73.33% success on nominal StackCube, 66.67% with distractors, and 75.00% on PickPlate with a target unseen during policy training. These results support treating the prediction-to-execution interface as an explicit learned component of world-model planning rather than incidental post-processing in the control pipeline itself. Project page: https://claire0730.github.io/executable-goals/

The quality of many modern machine learning models improves as model complexity increases, an effect that has been quantified, for predictive performance, with the non-monotonic double descent learning curve. Here, we address the overarching question: is there an analogous theory of double descent for models which estimate uncertainty? We provide a partially affirmative and partially negative answer in the setting of Gaussian processes (GP). Under standard assumptions, we prove that higher model quality for optimally-tuned GPs (including uncertainty prediction) under marginal likelihood is realized for larger input dimensions, and therefore exhibits a monotone error curve. After showing that marginal likelihood does not naturally exhibit double descent in the input dimension, we highlight related forms of posterior predictive loss that do exhibit non-monotonicity. Finally, we verify empirically that our results hold for real data, beyond our considered assumptions, and we explore consequences involving synthetic covariates.

Recent advances in diffusion and flow matching models have highlighted a shift in the preferred prediction target -- moving from noise (varepsilon) and velocity (v) to direct data (x) prediction -- particularly in high-dimensional settings. However, a formal explanation of why the optimal target depends on the specific properties of the data remains elusive. In this work, we provide a theoretical framework based on a generalized prediction formulation that accommodates arbitrary output targets, of which varepsilon-, v-, and x-prediction are special cases. We derive the analytical relationship between data's geometry and the optimal prediction target, offering a rigorous justification for why x-prediction becomes superior when the ambient dimension significantly exceeds the data's intrinsic dimension. Furthermore, while our theory identifies dimensionality as the governing factor for the optimal prediction target, the intrinsic dimension of manifold-bound data is typically intractable to estimate in practice. To bridge this gap, we propose k-Diff, a framework that employs a data-driven approach to learn the optimal prediction parameter k directly from data, bypassing the need for explicit dimension estimation. Extensive experiments in both latent-space and pixel-space image generation demonstrate that k-Diff consistently outperforms fixed-target baselines across varying architectures and data scales, providing a principled and automated approach to enhancing generative performance.

Can we build continuous generative models which generalize across scales, can be evaluated at any coordinate, admit calculation of exact derivatives, and are conceptually simple? Existing MLP-based architectures generate worse samples than the grid-based generators with favorable convolutional inductive biases. Models that focus on generating images at different scales do better, but employ complex architectures not designed for continuous evaluation of images and derivatives. We take a signal-processing perspective and treat continuous image generation as interpolation from samples. Indeed, correctly sampled discrete images contain all information about the low spatial frequencies. The question is then how to extrapolate the spectrum in a data-driven way while meeting the above design criteria. Our answer is FunkNN -- a new convolutional network which learns how to reconstruct continuous images at arbitrary coordinates and can be applied to any image dataset. Combined with a discrete generative model it becomes a functional generator which can act as a prior in continuous ill-posed inverse problems. We show that FunkNN generates high-quality continuous images and exhibits strong out-of-distribution performance thanks to its patch-based design. We further showcase its performance in several stylized inverse problems with exact spatial derivatives.

This paper introduces EXAdam (EXtended Adam), a novel optimization algorithm that builds upon the widely-used Adam optimizer. EXAdam incorporates three key enhancements: (1) new debiasing terms for improved moment estimation, (2) a gradient-based acceleration mechanism for increased responsiveness to the current loss landscape, and (3) a dynamic step size formula that allows for continuous growth of the learning rate throughout training. These innovations work synergistically to address limitations of the original Adam algorithm, potentially offering improved convergence properties, enhanced ability to escape saddle points, and greater robustness to hyperparameter choices. I provide a theoretical analysis of EXAdam's components and their interactions, highlighting the algorithm's potential advantages in navigating complex optimization landscapes. Empirical evaluations demonstrate EXAdam's superiority over Adam, achieving 48.07% faster convergence and yielding improvements of 4.6%, 4.13%, and 2.39% in training, validation, and testing accuracies, respectively, when applied to a CNN trained on the CIFAR-10 dataset. While these results are promising, further empirical validation across diverse tasks is essential to fully gauge EXAdam's efficacy. Nevertheless, EXAdam represents a significant advancement in adaptive optimization techniques, with promising implications for a wide range of machine learning applications. This work aims to contribute to the ongoing development of more efficient, adaptive, and universally applicable optimization methods in the field of machine learning and artificial intelligence.

Length extrapolation algorithms based on Rotary position embedding (RoPE) have shown promising results in extending the context length of language models. However, understanding how position embedding can capture longer-range contextual information remains elusive. Based on the intuition that different dimensions correspond to different frequency of changes in RoPE encoding, we conducted a dimension-level analysis to investigate the correlation between a hidden dimension of an attention head and its contribution to capturing long-distance dependencies. Using our correlation metric, we identified a particular type of attention heads, which we named Positional Heads, from various length-extrapolated models. These heads exhibit a strong focus on long-range information interaction and play a pivotal role in long input processing, as evidence by our ablation. We further demonstrate the correlation between the efficiency of length extrapolation and the extension of the high-dimensional attention allocation of these heads. The identification of Positional Heads provides insights for future research in long-text comprehension.

Momentum-based optimizers are widely used in modern deep learning, yet the relations among momentum recursion, update geometry, and acceleration remain only partially understood. We develop an ADMM-Inspired Momentum (AIM) framework based on residual-penalty variable splitting, which interprets momentum as a multiplier-like correction driven by the splitting residual. AIM recovers the exponential moving average of gradients from an ADMM-style multiplier update and separates two mechanisms that are usually intertwined in practical optimizers: the residual penalty determines the update geometry, whereas the approximation of the objective-related subproblem determines the acceleration form. Building on AIM, we propose Relativistic Adaptive gradient Descent with Accelerated Residual (RADAR), which combines relativistic adaptive geometry, decoupled residual correction, and second-order momentum filtering to improve the update direction and momentum estimation. We establish stochastic convergence through a variance-perturbed Lyapunov drift analysis. Experiments on supervised vision learning, language modeling, and reinforcement learning show that RADAR achieves consistent improvements over strong adaptive optimizer baselines.