Daily Papers

Visual tracking problem demands to efficiently perform robust classification and accurate target state estimation over a given target at the same time. Former methods have proposed various ways of target state estimation, yet few of them took the particularity of the visual tracking problem itself into consideration. After a careful analysis, we propose a set of practical guidelines of target state estimation for high-performance generic object tracker design. Following these guidelines, we design our Fully Convolutional Siamese tracker++ (SiamFC++) by introducing both classification and target state estimation branch(G1), classification score without ambiguity(G2), tracking without prior knowledge(G3), and estimation quality score(G4). Extensive analysis and ablation studies demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed guidelines. Without bells and whistles, our SiamFC++ tracker achieves state-of-the-art performance on five challenging benchmarks(OTB2015, VOT2018, LaSOT, GOT-10k, TrackingNet), which proves both the tracking and generalization ability of the tracker. Particularly, on the large-scale TrackingNet dataset, SiamFC++ achieves a previously unseen AUC score of 75.4 while running at over 90 FPS, which is far above the real-time requirement. Code and models are available at: https://github.com/MegviiDetection/video_analyst .

This paper presents a novel guidance law for target tracking applications where the target motion model is unknown and sensor measurements are intermittent due to unknown environmental conditions and low measurement update rate. In this work, the target motion model is represented by a transformer neural network and trained by previous target position measurements. This transformer motion model serves as the prediction step in a particle filter for target state estimation and uncertainty quantification. The particle filter estimation uncertainty is utilized in the information-driven guidance law to compute a path for the mobile agent to travel to a position with maximum expected entropy reduction (EER). The computation of EER is performed in real-time by approximating the information gain from the predicted particle distributions relative to the current distribution. Simulation and hardware experiments are performed with a quadcopter agent and TurtleBot target to demonstrate that the presented guidance law outperforms two other baseline guidance methods.

Classical state estimation algorithms rely on predefined target's state-space model, which complicates model derivation and limits adaptability when system dynamics change. Neural network based estimators offer a data-driven alternative, but rarely fuse classical estimation theory into their structure and demand large, pre-computed training sets. To overcome these limitations, we propose a unified state-space structure without target's state-space model and treats both the input-layer activations and all network weights as latent states to be estimated online. We instantiate this nonlinear model with three canonical estimators-the extended Kalman estimator, the unscented Kalman estimator, and the particle estimator to simulate different neural network and demonstrate its generality. We then benchmark our approach against seven leading neural network estimators across three representative scenarios. Results show that our neural network state-space estimators not only retain the robust learning capability, but also match or exceed the accuracy of both classical and pre-trained neural network methods. Code, data, and more result: github.com/ShineMinxing/PaperNNSSE.git

Phylogenetics is a branch of computational biology that studies the evolutionary relationships among biological entities. Its long history and numerous applications notwithstanding, inference of phylogenetic trees from sequence data remains challenging: the high complexity of tree space poses a significant obstacle for the current combinatorial and probabilistic techniques. In this paper, we adopt the framework of generative flow networks (GFlowNets) to tackle two core problems in phylogenetics: parsimony-based and Bayesian phylogenetic inference. Because GFlowNets are well-suited for sampling complex combinatorial structures, they are a natural choice for exploring and sampling from the multimodal posterior distribution over tree topologies and evolutionary distances. We demonstrate that our amortized posterior sampler, PhyloGFN, produces diverse and high-quality evolutionary hypotheses on real benchmark datasets. PhyloGFN is competitive with prior works in marginal likelihood estimation and achieves a closer fit to the target distribution than state-of-the-art variational inference methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/zmy1116/phylogfn.

We address the problem of gaze target estimation, which aims to predict where a person is looking in a scene. Predicting a person's gaze target requires reasoning both about the person's appearance and the contents of the scene. Prior works have developed increasingly complex, hand-crafted pipelines for gaze target estimation that carefully fuse features from separate scene encoders, head encoders, and auxiliary models for signals like depth and pose. Motivated by the success of general-purpose feature extractors on a variety of visual tasks, we propose Gaze-LLE, a novel transformer framework that streamlines gaze target estimation by leveraging features from a frozen DINOv2 encoder. We extract a single feature representation for the scene, and apply a person-specific positional prompt to decode gaze with a lightweight module. We demonstrate state-of-the-art performance across several gaze benchmarks and provide extensive analysis to validate our design choices. Our code is available at: http://github.com/fkryan/gazelle .

Gaze target estimation, the task of predicting where a person is looking in a scene, is crucial to understanding human attention and intent. It is a challenging task that combines high-level understanding of global scene semantics and precise spatial reasoning using human appearance (e.g. pose, eye orientation). As a result, human-level performance remains elusive for existing models, limiting their practical application. To this end, we propose PaGE (Practical Gaze Estimator), a gaze estimation model that explicitly models the complex interaction between scene and head features. Using a PaGE model with a large ViT-H+ backbone as the teacher, we further distill student models with lighter backbones on a much larger and more diverse unlabeled dataset. The architectural improvements and novel training recipe allow PaGE to achieve state-of-the-art performance on several gaze estimation tasks, outperforming humans in 7 out of 9 metrics while reducing the human-AI gap by at least 60% in the remaining 2. The distilled student models retain most of the teacher's performance while being lightweight enough for practical deployment on robots and consumer devices. The code and model checkpoints are available at our project page.

In medical and industrial domains, providing guidance for assembly processes can be critical to ensure efficiency and safety. Errors in assembly can lead to significant consequences such as extended surgery times and prolonged manufacturing or maintenance times in industry. Assembly scenarios can benefit from in-situ augmented reality visualization, i.e., augmentations in close proximity to the target object, to provide guidance, reduce assembly times, and minimize errors. In order to enable in-situ visualization, 6D pose estimation can be leveraged to identify the correct location for an augmentation. Existing 6D pose estimation techniques primarily focus on individual objects and static captures. However, assembly scenarios have various dynamics, including occlusion during assembly and dynamics in the appearance of assembly objects. Existing work focus either on object detection combined with state detection, or focus purely on the pose estimation. To address the challenges of 6D pose estimation in combination with assembly state detection, our approach ASDF builds upon the strengths of YOLOv8, a real-time capable object detection framework. We extend this framework, refine the object pose, and fuse pose knowledge with network-detected pose information. Utilizing our late fusion in our Pose2State module results in refined 6D pose estimation and assembly state detection. By combining both pose and state information, our Pose2State module predicts the final assembly state with precision. The evaluation of our ASDF dataset shows that our Pose2State module leads to an improved assembly state detection and that the improvement of the assembly state further leads to a more robust 6D pose estimation. Moreover, on the GBOT dataset, we outperform the pure deep learning-based network and even outperform the hybrid and pure tracking-based approaches.

Estimating human gaze target from visible images is a critical task for robots to understand human attention, yet the development of generalizable neural architectures and training paradigms remains challenging. While recent advances in pre-trained vision foundation models offer promising avenues for locating gaze targets, the integration of multi-modal cues -- including eyes, head poses, gestures, and contextual features -- demands adaptive and efficient decoding mechanisms. Inspired by Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) for adaptive domain expertise in large vision-language models, we propose GazeMoE, a novel end-to-end framework that selectively leverages gaze-target-related cues from a frozen foundation model through MoE modules. To address class imbalance in gaze target classification (in-frame vs. out-of-frame) and enhance robustness, GazeMoE incorporates a class-balancing auxiliary loss alongside strategic data augmentations, including region-specific cropping and photometric transformations. Extensive experiments on benchmark datasets demonstrate that our GazeMoE achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming existing methods on challenging gaze estimation tasks. The code and pre-trained models are released at https://huggingface.co/zdai257/GazeMoE

Can every robot in a swarm predict the same future collective state from only local observations and bandwidth-limited messages? We formulate this as decentralized shared-state prediction and introduce Collective-State JEPA (CS-JEPA), a recurrent joint-embedding predictive architecture whose output at every robot represents one common future token field. At deployment, each robot uses a 16-frame local history and one 64-float recurrent message per directed edge; there is no global pooling, target encoder, episode clock, or recorded future action. After pretraining without downstream collective labels, frozen representations are evaluated with ridge probes fitted on 6, 12, or 24 globally labeled episodes. Against raw-future reconstruction with the same receiver anchor and deployment capacity but 9,607 additional training-only parameters, a prospectively registered five-seed follow-up improves prediction-error and inter-robot-agreement label-budget AUC on in-distribution, ring, mutual-kNN, and unseen-size families up to 108 robots. Every effect favors CS-JEPA in 5/5 outer seeds. In a separate sealed eight-seed follow-up, matched action-conditioned predictors receive each candidate four-step plan before producing receiver-local predictive representations. CS-JEPA reduces branch-value MSE by 45.5% and improves within-context candidate-score Pearson correlation by 0.1291, with both effects favorable in 8/8 seeds, including at unseen N=32. These results support common-future JEPA targets as a label-efficient primitive for decentralized swarm prediction under topology and size shift, with additional evidence of planning-relevant value estimation.

Monocular depth estimation (MDE) is a fundamental topic of geometric computer vision and a core technique for many downstream applications. Recently, several methods reframe the MDE as a classification-regression problem where a linear combination of probabilistic distribution and bin centers is used to predict depth. In this paper, we propose a novel concept of iterative elastic bins (IEBins) for the classification-regression-based MDE. The proposed IEBins aims to search for high-quality depth by progressively optimizing the search range, which involves multiple stages and each stage performs a finer-grained depth search in the target bin on top of its previous stage. To alleviate the possible error accumulation during the iterative process, we utilize a novel elastic target bin to replace the original target bin, the width of which is adjusted elastically based on the depth uncertainty. Furthermore, we develop a dedicated framework composed of a feature extractor and an iterative optimizer that has powerful temporal context modeling capabilities benefiting from the GRU-based architecture. Extensive experiments on the KITTI, NYU-Depth-v2 and SUN RGB-D datasets demonstrate that the proposed method surpasses prior state-of-the-art competitors. The source code is publicly available at https://github.com/ShuweiShao/IEBins.

Tracking often uses a multi-stage pipeline of feature extraction, target information integration, and bounding box estimation. To simplify this pipeline and unify the process of feature extraction and target information integration, we present a compact tracking framework, termed as MixFormer, built upon transformers. Our core design is to utilize the flexibility of attention operations, and propose a Mixed Attention Module (MAM) for simultaneous feature extraction and target information integration. This synchronous modeling scheme allows to extract target-specific discriminative features and perform extensive communication between target and search area. Based on MAM, we build our MixFormer tracking framework simply by stacking multiple MAMs with progressive patch embedding and placing a localization head on top. In addition, to handle multiple target templates during online tracking, we devise an asymmetric attention scheme in MAM to reduce computational cost, and propose an effective score prediction module to select high-quality templates. Our MixFormer sets a new state-of-the-art performance on five tracking benchmarks, including LaSOT, TrackingNet, VOT2020, GOT-10k, and UAV123. In particular, our MixFormer-L achieves NP score of 79.9% on LaSOT, 88.9% on TrackingNet and EAO of 0.555 on VOT2020. We also perform in-depth ablation studies to demonstrate the effectiveness of simultaneous feature extraction and information integration. Code and trained models are publicly available at https://github.com/MCG-NJU/MixFormer.

Given a stationary state-space model that relates a sequence of hidden states and corresponding measurements or observations, Bayesian filtering provides a principled statistical framework for inferring the posterior distribution of the current state given all measurements up to the present time. For example, the Apollo lunar module implemented a Kalman filter to infer its location from a sequence of earth-based radar measurements and land safely on the moon. To perform Bayesian filtering, we require a measurement model that describes the conditional distribution of each observation given state. The Kalman filter takes this measurement model to be linear, Gaussian. Here we show how a nonlinear, Gaussian approximation to the distribution of state given observation can be used in conjunction with Bayes' rule to build a nonlinear, non-Gaussian measurement model. The resulting approach, called the Discriminative Kalman Filter (DKF), retains fast closed-form updates for the posterior. We argue there are many cases where the distribution of state given measurement is better-approximated as Gaussian, especially when the dimensionality of measurements far exceeds that of states and the Bernstein-von Mises theorem applies. Online neural decoding for brain-computer interfaces provides a motivating example, where filtering incorporates increasingly detailed measurements of neural activity to provide users control over external devices. Within the BrainGate2 clinical trial, the DKF successfully enabled three volunteers with quadriplegia to control an on-screen cursor in real-time using mental imagery alone. Participant "T9" used the DKF to type out messages on a tablet PC.

State estimation in control and systems engineering traditionally requires extensive manual system identification or data-collection effort. However, transformer-based foundation models in other domains have reduced data requirements by leveraging pre-trained generalist models. Ultimately, developing zero-shot foundation models of system dynamics could drastically reduce manual deployment effort. While recent work shows that transformer-based end-to-end approaches can achieve zero-shot performance on unseen systems, they are limited to sensor models seen during training. We introduce the foundation model unscented Kalman filter (FM-UKF), which combines a transformer-based model of system dynamics with analytically known sensor models via an UKF, enabling generalization across varying dynamics without retraining for new sensor configurations. We evaluate FM-UKF on a new benchmark of container ship models with complex dynamics, demonstrating a competitive accuracy, effort, and robustness trade-off compared to classical methods with approximate system knowledge and to an end-to-end approach. The benchmark and dataset are open sourced to further support future research in zero-shot state estimation via foundation models.

Multitarget Tracking (MTT) is the problem of tracking the states of an unknown number of objects using noisy measurements, with important applications to autonomous driving, surveillance, robotics, and others. In the model-based Bayesian setting, there are conjugate priors that enable us to express the multi-object posterior in closed form, which could theoretically provide Bayes-optimal estimates. However, the posterior involves a super-exponential growth of the number of hypotheses over time, forcing state-of-the-art methods to resort to approximations for remaining tractable, which can impact their performance in complex scenarios. Model-free methods based on deep-learning provide an attractive alternative, as they can, in principle, learn the optimal filter from data, but to the best of our knowledge were never compared to current state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, specially not in contexts where accurate models are available. In this paper, we propose a high-performing deep-learning method for MTT based on the Transformer architecture and compare it to two state-of-the-art Bayesian filters, in a setting where we assume the correct model is provided. Although this gives an edge to the model-based filters, it also allows us to generate unlimited training data. We show that the proposed model outperforms state-of-the-art Bayesian filters in complex scenarios, while matching their performance in simpler cases, which validates the applicability of deep-learning also in the model-based regime. The code for all our implementations is made available at https://github.com/JulianoLagana/MT3 .

Evaluation metrics are central to binary target segmentation because they determine how progress is measured, compared, and interpreted. In this paper, target denotes the task-defined positive region to be segmented rather than a generic foreground object. It may be salient, camouflaged, transparent, glass-like, mirror-like, shadow-like, lesion-like, or defined by other application-specific semantics. We treat existing metrics as compositions of modular design choices rather than isolated formulas. The proposed framework decomposes each metric into five stages covering prediction representation, target extraction, target matching, score computation, and metric reporting. We use this framework to analyze representative metrics and show how newer metrics address specific limits in earlier protocols. The stage choices keep each metric's assumptions visible. We then discuss the design space opened by the framework and its implications for task-aware evaluation protocols. Reference code is available at https://github.com/lartpang/PySODMetrics.

State estimation of dynamical systems in real-time is a fundamental task in signal processing. For systems that are well-represented by a fully known linear Gaussian state space (SS) model, the celebrated Kalman filter (KF) is a low complexity optimal solution. However, both linearity of the underlying SS model and accurate knowledge of it are often not encountered in practice. Here, we present KalmanNet, a real-time state estimator that learns from data to carry out Kalman filtering under non-linear dynamics with partial information. By incorporating the structural SS model with a dedicated recurrent neural network module in the flow of the KF, we retain data efficiency and interpretability of the classic algorithm while implicitly learning complex dynamics from data. We demonstrate numerically that KalmanNet overcomes non-linearities and model mismatch, outperforming classic filtering methods operating with both mismatched and accurate domain knowledge.

We revisit High-Resolution Range Profile (HRRP) classification with aspect-angle conditioning. While prior work often assumes that aspect-angle information is incomplete during training or unavailable at inference, we study a setting where angles are available for all training samples and explicitly provided to the classifier. Using three datasets and a broad range of conditioning strategies and model architectures, we show that both single-profile and sequential classifiers benefit consistently from aspect-angle awareness, with an average accuracy gain of about 7% and improvements of up to 10%, depending on the model and dataset. In practice, aspect angles are not directly measured and must be estimated. We show that a causal Kalman filter can estimate them online with a median error of 5{\textdegree}, and that training and inference with estimated angles preserves most of the gains, supporting the proposed approach in realistic conditions.

We seek to learn an effective policy for a Markov Decision Process (MDP) with continuous states via Q-Learning. Given a set of basis functions over state action pairs we search for a corresponding set of linear weights that minimizes the mean Bellman residual. Our algorithm uses a Kalman filter model to estimate those weights and we have developed a simpler approximate Kalman filter model that outperforms the current state of the art projected TD-Learning methods on several standard benchmark problems.

Bayesian filtering approximates the true underlying behavior of a time-varying system by inverting an explicit generative model to convert noisy measurements into state estimates. This process typically requires either storage, inversion, and multiplication of large matrices or Monte Carlo estimation, neither of which are practical in high-dimensional state spaces such as the weight spaces of artificial neural networks. Here, we frame the standard Bayesian filtering problem as optimization over a time-varying objective. Instead of maintaining matrices for the filtering equations or simulating particles, we specify an optimizer that defines the Bayesian filter implicitly. In the linear-Gaussian setting, we show that every Kalman filter has an equivalent formulation using K steps of gradient descent. In the nonlinear setting, our experiments demonstrate that our framework results in filters that are effective, robust, and scalable to high-dimensional systems, comparing well against the standard toolbox of Bayesian filtering solutions. We suggest that it is easier to fine-tune an optimizer than it is to specify the correct filtering equations, making our framework an attractive option for high-dimensional filtering problems.

The presence of distribution shifts poses a significant challenge for deploying modern machine learning models in real-world applications. This work focuses on the target shift problem in a regression setting (Zhang et al., 2013; Nguyen et al., 2016). More specifically, the target variable y (also known as the response variable), which is continuous, has different marginal distributions in the training source and testing domain, while the conditional distribution of features x given y remains the same. While most literature focuses on classification tasks with finite target space, the regression problem has an infinite dimensional target space, which makes many of the existing methods inapplicable. In this work, we show that the continuous target shift problem can be addressed by estimating the importance weight function from an ill-posed integral equation. We propose a nonparametric regularized approach named ReTaSA to solve the ill-posed integral equation and provide theoretical justification for the estimated importance weight function. The effectiveness of the proposed method has been demonstrated with extensive numerical studies on synthetic and real-world datasets.

State estimation is highly critical for accurately observing the dynamic behavior of the power grids and minimizing risks from cyber threats. However, existing state estimation methods encounter challenges in accurately capturing power system dynamics, primarily because of limitations in encoding the grid topology and sparse measurements. This paper proposes a physics-informed graphical learning state estimation method to address these limitations by leveraging both domain physical knowledge and a graph neural network (GNN). We employ a GNN architecture that can handle the graph-structured data of power systems more effectively than traditional data-driven methods. The physics-based knowledge is constructed from the branch current formulation, making the approach adaptable to both transmission and distribution systems. The validation results of three IEEE test systems show that the proposed method can achieve lower mean square error more than 20% than the conventional methods.

Transformers are a class of autoregressive deep learning architectures which have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance in various vision, language, and robotics tasks. We revisit the problem of Kalman Filtering in linear dynamical systems and show that Transformers can approximate the Kalman Filter in a strong sense. Specifically, for any observable LTI system we construct an explicit causally-masked Transformer which implements the Kalman Filter, up to a small additive error which is bounded uniformly in time; we call our construction the Transformer Filter. Our construction is based on a two-step reduction. We first show that a softmax self-attention block can exactly represent a Nadaraya-Watson kernel smoothing estimator with a Gaussian kernel. We then show that this estimator closely approximates the Kalman Filter. We also investigate how the Transformer Filter can be used for measurement-feedback control and prove that the resulting nonlinear controllers closely approximate the performance of standard optimal control policies such as the LQG controller.

We present FusionCore, an open-source ROS 2 sensor fusion package that fuses IMU, wheel encoder odometry, GPS, and Visual SLAM pose into a single 100 Hz odometry stream using a 23-state Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF). The 23rd state is an online estimate of the wheel encoder's systematic yaw rate bias, identified through GPS heading cross-covariance and subtracted during GPS blackouts to reduce heading drift in coast mode. FusionCore also estimates gyroscope and accelerometer biases as explicit filter states, handles GPS natively in ECEF without a separate coordinate projection node, applies per-sensor Mahalanobis chi-squared outlier gating calibrated to measurement degrees of freedom, and adapts sensor noise covariance automatically from the innovation sequence. VSLAM pose fusion enables GPS-denied operation with any visual odometry or SLAM system, including automatic recovery from map reinitialization. We evaluate against robot_localization on twelve full-length sequences (55-92 min each) from the NCLT public dataset. FusionCore achieves lower Absolute Trajectory Error (ATE) on ten of twelve sequences, with improvements ranging from 1.2x to 22.2x on winning sequences. The robot_localization UKF diverges numerically on all twelve sequences. FusionCore is available at https://github.com/manankharwar/fusioncore under the Apache 2.0 license.

This research enhances linear regression models by integrating a Kalman filter and analysing curve areas to minimize loss. The goal is to develop an optimal linear regression equation using stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for weight updating. Our approach involves a stepwise process, starting with user-defined parameters. The linear regression model is trained using SGD, tracking weights and loss separately and zipping them finally. A Kalman filter is then trained based on weight and loss arrays to predict the next consolidated weights. Predictions result from multiplying input averages with weights, evaluated for loss to form a weight-versus-loss curve. The curve's equation is derived using the two-point formula, and area under the curve is calculated via integration. The linear regression equation with minimum area becomes the optimal curve for prediction. Benefits include avoiding constant weight updates via gradient descent and working with partial datasets, unlike methods needing the entire set. However, computational complexity should be considered. The Kalman filter's accuracy might diminish beyond a certain prediction range.

Enabling robots to understand human gaze target is a crucial step to allow capabilities in downstream tasks, for example, attention estimation and movement anticipation in real-world human-robot interactions. Prior works have addressed the in-frame target localization problem with data-driven approaches by carefully removing out-of-frame samples. Vision-based gaze estimation methods, such as OpenFace, do not effectively absorb background information in images and cannot predict gaze target in situations where subjects look away from the camera. In this work, we propose a system to address the problem of 360-degree gaze target estimation from an image in generalized visual scenes. The system, named GazeTarget360, integrates conditional inference engines of an eye-contact detector, a pre-trained vision encoder, and a multi-scale-fusion decoder. Cross validation results show that GazeTarget360 can produce accurate and reliable gaze target predictions in unseen scenarios. This makes a first-of-its-kind system to predict gaze targets from realistic camera footage which is highly efficient and deployable. Our source code is made publicly available at: https://github.com/zdai257/DisengageNet.

Kalman filter (KF) based methods for multi-object tracking (MOT) make an assumption that objects move linearly. While this assumption is acceptable for very short periods of occlusion, linear estimates of motion for prolonged time can be highly inaccurate. Moreover, when there is no measurement available to update Kalman filter parameters, the standard convention is to trust the priori state estimations for posteriori update. This leads to the accumulation of errors during a period of occlusion. The error causes significant motion direction variance in practice. In this work, we show that a basic Kalman filter can still obtain state-of-the-art tracking performance if proper care is taken to fix the noise accumulated during occlusion. Instead of relying only on the linear state estimate (i.e., estimation-centric approach), we use object observations (i.e., the measurements by object detector) to compute a virtual trajectory over the occlusion period to fix the error accumulation of filter parameters during the occlusion period. This allows more time steps to correct errors accumulated during occlusion. We name our method Observation-Centric SORT (OC-SORT). It remains Simple, Online, and Real-Time but improves robustness during occlusion and non-linear motion. Given off-the-shelf detections as input, OC-SORT runs at 700+ FPS on a single CPU. It achieves state-of-the-art on multiple datasets, including MOT17, MOT20, KITTI, head tracking, and especially DanceTrack where the object motion is highly non-linear. The code and models are available at https://github.com/noahcao/OC_SORT.

We introduce Iterated Bellman Calibration, a simple, model-agnostic, post-hoc procedure for calibrating off-policy value predictions in infinite-horizon Markov decision processes. Bellman calibration requires that states with similar predicted long-term returns exhibit one-step returns consistent with the Bellman equation under the target policy. We adapt classical histogram and isotonic calibration to the dynamic, counterfactual setting by repeatedly regressing fitted Bellman targets onto a model's predictions, using a doubly robust pseudo-outcome to handle off-policy data. This yields a one-dimensional fitted value iteration scheme that can be applied to any value estimator. Our analysis provides finite-sample guarantees for both calibration and prediction under weak assumptions, and critically, without requiring Bellman completeness or realizability.

Differentiable particle filters are an emerging class of sequential Bayesian inference techniques that use neural networks to construct components in state space models. Existing approaches are mostly based on offline supervised training strategies. This leads to the delay of the model deployment and the obtained filters are susceptible to distribution shift of test-time data. In this paper, we propose an online learning framework for differentiable particle filters so that model parameters can be updated as data arrive. The technical constraint is that there is no known ground truth state information in the online inference setting. We address this by adopting an unsupervised loss to construct the online model updating procedure, which involves a sequence of filtering operations for online maximum likelihood-based parameter estimation. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed method, and compare it with supervised learning methods in simulation settings including a multivariate linear Gaussian state-space model and a simulated object tracking experiment.

Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising success and become the dominant tracking paradigm due to their accuracy and efficiency. Despite the substantial progress, most of the existing approaches tackle object tracking as a deterministic coordinate regression problem, while the target localization uncertainty has been greatly overlooked, which hampers trackers' ability to maintain reliable target state prediction in challenging scenarios. To address this issue, we propose UncTrack, a novel uncertainty-aware transformer tracker that predicts the target localization uncertainty and incorporates this uncertainty information for accurate target state inference. Specifically, UncTrack utilizes a transformer encoder to perform feature interaction between template and search images. The output features are passed into an uncertainty-aware localization decoder (ULD) to coarsely predict the corner-based localization and the corresponding localization uncertainty. Then the localization uncertainty is sent into a prototype memory network (PMN) to excavate valuable historical information to identify whether the target state prediction is reliable or not. To enhance the template representation, the samples with high confidence are fed back into the prototype memory bank for memory updating, making the tracker more robust to challenging appearance variations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/ManOfStory/UncTrack.

SLAM plays a crucial role in automation tasks, such as warehouse logistics, healthcare robotics, and restaurant delivery. These scenes come with various challenges, including navigating around crowds of people, dealing with flying plastic bags that can temporarily blind sensors, and addressing reduced LiDAR density caused by cooking smoke. Such scenarios can result in over-degeneracy, causing the map to drift. To address this issue, this paper presents a multi-map LiDAR-inertial system (MM-LINS) for the first time. The front-end employs an iterated error state Kalman filter for state estimation and introduces a reliable evaluation strategy for degeneracy detection. If over-degeneracy is detected, the active map will be stored into sleeping maps. Subsequently, the system continuously attempts to construct new maps using a dynamic initialization method to ensure successful initialization upon leaving the over-degeneracy. Regarding the back-end, the Scan Context descriptor is utilized to detect inter-map similarity. Upon successful recognition of a sleeping map that shares a common region with the active map, the overlapping trajectory region is utilized to constrain the positional transformation near the edge of the prior map. In response to this, a constraint-enhanced map fusion strategy is proposed to achieve high-precision positional and mapping results. Experiments have been conducted separately on both public datasets that exhibited over-degenerate conditions and in real-world environments. These tests demonstrated the effectiveness of MM-LINS in over-degeneracy environment. Our codes are open-sourced on Github.

Combining the classical Kalman filter (KF) with a deep neural network (DNN) enables tracking in partially known state space (SS) models. A major limitation of current DNN-aided designs stems from the need to train them to filter data originating from a specific distribution and underlying SS model. Consequently, changes in the model parameters may require lengthy retraining. While the KF adapts through parameter tuning, the black-box nature of DNNs makes identifying tunable components difficult. Hence, we propose Adaptive KalmanNet (AKNet), a DNN-aided KF that can adapt to changes in the SS model without retraining. Inspired by recent advances in large language model fine-tuning paradigms, AKNet uses a compact hypernetwork to generate context-dependent modulation weights. Numerical evaluation shows that AKNet provides consistent state estimation performance across a continuous range of noise distributions, even when trained using data from limited noise settings.

State-space language models such as Mamba and gated linear attention (GLA) offer efficient alternatives to transformers due to their linear complexity and parallel training, but often lack the expressivity and robust state-tracking needed for complex reasoning. We address these limitations by reframing sequence modelling through a probabilistic lens, using Bayesian filters as a core primitive. While classical filters such as Kalman filters provide principled state estimation and uncertainty tracking, they are typically viewed as inherently sequential. We show that reparameterising the Kalman filter in information form enables its updates to be computed via an associative scan, allowing efficient parallel training. Building on this insight, we introduce the Kalman Linear Attention (KLA) layer, a neural sequence-modelling primitive that performs time-parallel probabilistic inference while maintaining explicit belief-state uncertainty. KLA offers strictly more expressive nonlinear updates and gating than GLA variants while retaining their computational advantages. On language modelling tasks, KLA matches or outperforms modern SSMs and GLAs across representative discrete token-manipulation and state-tracking benchmarks.

Tracking links observations of the same object through visual change, yet cannot by itself determine when the object is empty or filled, intact or cut. We formulate identity-conditioned state-moment retrieval: given a tracked-object history and alternative state descriptions, localize an interval in which each described state holds. Absolute image-text similarity scores descriptions independently; because every visible frame depicts the same target, shared object compatibility can obscure the state evidence needed to identify the target interval. The alternatives provide the missing reference: evidence for one state should be measured against the others. We introduce Déjà Cue, a training-free framework that turns these alternatives into a vocabulary-relative coordinate system. It subtracts their state-balanced centroid from each description, calibrates frame scores, and scans multiple durations within contiguous visible runs using a frozen encoder. On 78 VOST histories, holding the temporal scan fixed and changing only the query reference nearly doubles R@1 at tIoU 0.5 from 10.3\% to 20.5\% and raises Top-1 tIoU from 16.0\% to 21.5\%. Candidate-rank analyses show that vocabulary-relative queries rank useful intervals higher within the same candidate set. Related state descriptions can therefore serve as an object-specific, query-time coordinate system for reading frozen visual representations.

We develop a Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning (MARL) method to learn scalable control policies for target tracking. Our method can handle an arbitrary number of pursuers and targets; we show results for tasks consisting up to 1000 pursuers tracking 1000 targets. We use a decentralized, partially-observable Markov Decision Process framework to model pursuers as agents receiving partial observations (range and bearing) about targets which move using fixed, unknown policies. An attention mechanism is used to parameterize the value function of the agents; this mechanism allows us to handle an arbitrary number of targets. Entropy-regularized off-policy RL methods are used to train a stochastic policy, and we discuss how it enables a hedging behavior between pursuers that leads to a weak form of cooperation in spite of completely decentralized control execution. We further develop a masking heuristic that allows training on smaller problems with few pursuers-targets and execution on much larger problems. Thorough simulation experiments, ablation studies, and comparisons to state of the art algorithms are performed to study the scalability of the approach and robustness of performance to varying numbers of agents and targets.

As efficient alternatives to softmax Attention, linear State-Space Models (SSMs) achieve constant memory and linear compute, but maintain only a lossy, fading summary of the past, often leading to inferior performance in recall-oriented tasks. We propose Gated KalmaNet (GKA), a layer that accounts for the full past while maintaining SSM-style efficiency. We ground our approach in the Kalman Filter (KF) framework, which provides a principled solution for optimal inference in dynamical systems. We show that several existing SSM layers (DeltaNet, Gated DeltaNet, and Kimi Delta Attention) are approximations to the KF recurrence that assume identity error covariance, thereby ignoring how past measurements (keys and values) should optimally influence state updates. In contrast, GKA computes the exact Kalman gain by maintaining the full error covariance. Under a steady-state assumption that enables parallelization, this reduces to solving an online ridge regression problem with constant memory and linear compute cost. A critical insight is that standard KF equations are numerically unstable in low-precision environments (like bfloat16) and hard to parallelize on modern hardware. We address this through: (1) adaptive regularization with input-dependent gating to control the condition number of the ridge regression for numerical stability, and (2) Chebyshev Iteration, which we show is more stable than conventional iterative solvers in low-precision settings. We further develop hardware-aware chunk-wise kernels to enable efficient training. Empirically, GKA outperforms existing SSM layers (like Mamba2 and Gated DeltaNet) on short-context tasks and achieves more than 10\% relative improvement on long-context RAG and LongQA tasks up to 128k tokens.

Data assimilation is the process of estimating the time-evolving state of a dynamical system by integrating model predictions and noisy observations. It is commonly formulated as Bayesian filtering, but classical filters often struggle with accuracy or computational feasibility in high dimensions. Recently, score-based generative models have emerged as a scalable approach for high-dimensional data assimilation, enabling accurate modeling and sampling of complex distributions. However, existing score-based filters often specify the forward process independently of the data assimilation. As a result, the measurement-update step depends on heuristic approximations of the likelihood score, which can accumulate errors and degrade performance over time. Here, we propose a measurement-aware score-based filter (MASF) that defines a measurement-aware forward process directly from the measurement equation. This construction makes the likelihood score analytically tractable: for linear measurements, we derive the exact likelihood score and combine it with a learned prior score to obtain the posterior score. Numerical experiments covering a range of settings, including high-dimensional datasets, demonstrate improved accuracy and stability over existing score-based filters.

Auto-regressive models have emerged as powerful tools for sequential data, from language to video. Understanding how and why these models learn latent representations remains an open theoretical question. In this work, we demonstrate that when trained by empirical risk minimization on data from partially observed linear dynamical systems, two-layer linear auto-regressive models naturally learn to approximate Kalman filtering. In particular, we show that the learned hidden representation coincides, up to a similarity transformation, with the state estimates produced by the optimal (Kalman) filter, even though the model has no explicit knowledge of the underlying dynamics or state. The result follows from three main insights. First, we establish that the Kalman filter is well approximated by an auto-regressive model with bounded truncation error. Second, we show that despite non-convexity, the two-layer optimization landscape is benign, i.e., all stationary points are either strict saddles or global minima. Finally, as our main contributions, we provide finite-sample guarantees on prediction error, parameter estimation error, and latent state recovery. Numerical simulations support the theoretical results and demonstrate that the latent representations of auto-regressive models recover state estimates.

Autonomous systems often operate in environments where the behavior of multiple agents is coordinated by a shared global state. Reliable estimation of the global state is thus critical for successfully operating in a multi-agent setting. We introduce agent-aware state estimation -- a framework for calculating indirect estimations of state given observations of the behavior of other agents in the environment. We also introduce transition-independent agent-aware state estimation -- a tractable class of agent-aware state estimation -- and show that it allows the speed of inference to scale linearly with the number of agents in the environment. As an example, we model traffic light classification in instances of complete loss of direct observation. By taking into account observations of vehicular behavior from multiple directions of traffic, our approach exhibits accuracy higher than that of existing traffic light-only HMM methods on a real-world autonomous vehicle data set under a variety of simulated occlusion scenarios.

Thermal infrared (TIR) imaging is essential for UAV swarm operations in visually degraded environments. However, tracking tiny UAVs remains challenging due to limited appearance cues, frequent occlusions, and rapid maneuvers. Despite significant progress driven by benchmarks such as the Anti-UAV challenge, existing methods primarily prioritize accuracy while overlooking the computational constraints of real-time edge deployment. The standard Kalman Filter (KF) offers the efficiency required for edge devices, yet its constant-velocity assumption often breaks down under highly dynamic UAV motion and thermal sensor jitter. More sophisticated nonlinear estimators can improve robustness but often introduce additional computational costs. To address this gap, we propose an edge-aware online tracking pipeline centered on the Adaptive Kinematic Kalman Filter (AKKF), which augments the linear KF with state-dependent kinematic modeling while preserving real-time efficiency. Combined with transient false-positive suppression and kinematics-driven predictive coasting, the presented pipeline improves trajectory continuity under challenging TIR conditions. Experiments on the Beyond Strong Baseline (BSB) benchmark provide a starting point for edge-aware UAV tracking by jointly evaluating tracking performance and computational efficiency, offering insights toward future real-time deployment.

Detection and tracking are the basic tasks of radar systems. Current joint detection tracking methods, which focus on dynamically adjusting detection thresholds from tracking results, still present challenges in fully utilizing the potential of radar signals. These are mainly reflected in the limited capacity of the constant false-alarm rate model to accurately represent information, the insufficient depiction of complex scenes, and the limited information acquired by the tracker. We introduce the Integrated Detection and Tracking based on radar feature (InDT) method, which comprises a network architecture for radar signal detection and a tracker that leverages detection assistance. The InDT detector extracts feature information from each Range-Doppler (RD) matrix and then returns the target position through the feature enhancement module and the detection head. The InDT tracker adaptively updates the measurement noise covariance of the Kalman filter based on detection confidence. The similarity of target RD features is measured by cosine distance, which enhances the data association process by combining location and feature information. Finally, the efficacy of the proposed method was validated through testing on both simulated data and publicly available datasets.

Appropriately designing the proposal kernel of particle filters is an issue of significant importance, since a bad choice may lead to deterioration of the particle sample and, consequently, waste of computational power. In this paper we introduce a novel algorithm adaptively approximating the so-called optimal proposal kernel by a mixture of integrated curved exponential distributions with logistic weights. This family of distributions, referred to as mixtures of experts, is broad enough to be used in the presence of multi-modality or strongly skewed distributions. The mixtures are fitted, via online-EM methods, to the optimal kernel through minimisation of the Kullback-Leibler divergence between the auxiliary target and instrumental distributions of the particle filter. At each iteration of the particle filter, the algorithm is required to solve only a single optimisation problem for the whole particle sample, yielding an algorithm with only linear complexity. In addition, we illustrate in a simulation study how the method can be successfully applied to optimal filtering in nonlinear state-space models.

The Internet of Things (IoT) triggers new types of cyber risks. Therefore, the integration of new IoT devices and services requires a self-assessment of IoT cyber security posture. By security posture this article refers to the cybersecurity strength of an organisation to predict, prevent and respond to cyberthreats. At present, there is a gap in the state of the art, because there are no self-assessment methods for quantifying IoT cyber risk posture. To address this gap, an empirical analysis is performed of 12 cyber risk assessment approaches. The results and the main findings from the analysis is presented as the current and a target risk state for IoT systems, followed by conclusions and recommendations on a transformation roadmap, describing how IoT systems can achieve the target state with a new goal-oriented dependency model. By target state, we refer to the cyber security target that matches the generic security requirements of an organisation. The research paper studies and adapts four alternatives for IoT risk assessment and identifies the goal-oriented dependency modelling as a dominant approach among the risk assessment models studied. The new goal-oriented dependency model in this article enables the assessment of uncontrollable risk states in complex IoT systems and can be used for a quantitative self-assessment of IoT cyber risk posture.

We study pursuit-evasion games in highly occluded urban environments, e.g. tall buildings in a city, where a scout (quadrotor) tracks multiple dynamic targets on the ground. We show that we can build a neural radiance field (NeRF) representation of the city -- online -- using RGB and depth images from different vantage points. This representation is used to calculate the information gain to both explore unknown parts of the city and track the targets -- thereby giving a completely first-principles approach to actively tracking dynamic targets. We demonstrate, using a custom-built simulator using Open Street Maps data of Philadelphia and New York City, that we can explore and locate 20 stationary targets within 300 steps. This is slower than a greedy baseline, which does not use active perception. But for dynamic targets that actively hide behind occlusions, we show that our approach maintains, at worst, a tracking error of 200m; the greedy baseline can have a tracking error as large as 600m. We observe a number of interesting properties in the scout's policies, e.g., it switches its attention to track a different target periodically, as the quality of the NeRF representation improves over time, the scout also becomes better in terms of target tracking. Code is available at https://github.com/grasp-lyrl/ActiveScout.

Density of the reachable states can help understand the risk of safety-critical systems, especially in situations when worst-case reachability is too conservative. Recent work provides a data-driven approach to compute the density distribution of autonomous systems' forward reachable states online. In this paper, we study the use of such approach in combination with model predictive control for verifiable safe path planning under uncertainties. We first use the learned density distribution to compute the risk of collision online. If such risk exceeds the acceptable threshold, our method will plan for a new path around the previous trajectory, with the risk of collision below the threshold. Our method is well-suited to handle systems with uncertainties and complicated dynamics as our data-driven approach does not need an analytical form of the systems' dynamics and can estimate forward state density with an arbitrary initial distribution of uncertainties. We design two challenging scenarios (autonomous driving and hovercraft control) for safe motion planning in environments with obstacles under system uncertainties. We first show that our density estimation approach can reach a similar accuracy as the Monte-Carlo-based method while using only 0.01X training samples. By leveraging the estimated risk, our algorithm achieves the highest success rate in goal reaching when enforcing the safety rate above 0.99.

Contact estimation is a key ability for limbed robots, where making and breaking contacts has a direct impact on state estimation and balance control. Existing approaches typically rely on gate-cycle priors or designated contact sensors. We design a contact estimator that is suitable for the emerging wheeled-biped robot types that do not have these features. To this end, we propose a Bayes filter in which update steps are learned from real-robot torque measurements while prediction steps rely on inertial measurements. We evaluate this approach in extensive real-robot and simulation experiments. Our method achieves better performance while being considerably more sample efficient than a comparable deep-learning baseline.

In real-world applications of reinforcement learning, it is often challenging to obtain a state representation that is parsimonious and satisfies the Markov property without prior knowledge. Consequently, it is common practice to construct a state larger than necessary, e.g., by concatenating measurements over contiguous time points. However, needlessly increasing the dimension of the state may slow learning and obfuscate the learned policy. We introduce the notion of a minimal sufficient state in a Markov decision process (MDP) as the subvector of the original state under which the process remains an MDP and shares the same reward function as the original process. We propose a novel SEquEntial Knockoffs (SEEK) algorithm that estimates the minimal sufficient state in a system with high-dimensional complex nonlinear dynamics. In large samples, the proposed method achieves selection consistency. As the method is agnostic to the reinforcement learning algorithm being applied, it benefits downstream tasks such as policy learning. Empirical experiments verify theoretical results and show the proposed approach outperforms several competing methods regarding variable selection accuracy and regret.

Tracking objects in three-dimensional space is critical for autonomous driving. To ensure safety while driving, the tracker must be able to reliably track objects across frames and accurately estimate their states such as velocity and acceleration in the present. Existing works frequently focus on the association task while either neglecting the model performance on state estimation or deploying complex heuristics to predict the states. In this paper, we propose STT, a Stateful Tracking model built with Transformers, that can consistently track objects in the scenes while also predicting their states accurately. STT consumes rich appearance, geometry, and motion signals through long term history of detections and is jointly optimized for both data association and state estimation tasks. Since the standard tracking metrics like MOTA and MOTP do not capture the combined performance of the two tasks in the wider spectrum of object states, we extend them with new metrics called S-MOTA and MOTPS that address this limitation. STT achieves competitive real-time performance on the Waymo Open Dataset.

We propose a stronger formulation of RL on top of RWKV-style recurrent sequence models, in which the fixed-size recurrent state is explicitly interpreted as a belief state rather than an opaque hidden vector. Instead of conditioning policy and value on a single summary h_t, we maintain a compact uncertainty-aware state b_t = (μ_t, Σ_t) derived from RWKV-style recurrent statistics and let control depend on both memory and uncertainty. This design targets a key weakness of plain fixed-state policies in partially observed settings: they may store evidence, but not necessarily confidence. We present the method, a theoretical program, and a pilot RL experiment with hidden episode-level observation noise together with a test-time noise sweep. The pilot shows that belief-state policies nearly match the best recurrent baseline overall while slightly improving return on the hardest in-distribution regime and under a held-out noise shift. Additional ablations show that this simple belief readout is currently stronger than two more structured extensions, namely gated memory control and privileged belief targets, underscoring the need for richer benchmarks.

Offline post-training adapts a pretrained robot policy to a target dataset by supervised regression on recorded actions. In practice, robot datasets are heterogeneous: they mix embodiments, camera setups, and demonstrations of varying quality, so many trajectories reflect recovery behavior, inconsistent operator skill, or weakly informative supervision. Uniform post-training gives equal credit to all samples and can therefore average over conflicting or low-attribution data. We propose Posterior-Transition Reweighting (PTR), a reward-free and conservative post-training method that decides how much each training sample should influence the supervised update. For each sample, PTR encodes the observed post-action consequence as a latent target, inserts it into a candidate pool of mismatched targets, and uses a separate transition scorer to estimate a softmax identification posterior over target indices. The posterior-to-uniform ratio defines the PTR score, which is converted into a clipped-and-mixed weight and applied to the original action objective through self-normalized weighted regression. This construction requires no tractable policy likelihood and is compatible with both diffusion and flow-matching action heads. Rather than uniformly trusting all recorded supervision, PTR reallocates credit according to how attributable each sample's post-action consequence is under the current representation, improving conservative offline adaptation to heterogeneous robot data.

In this work, we address the challenging problem of long-horizon goal-reaching policy learning from non-expert, action-free observation data. Unlike fully labeled expert data, our data is more accessible and avoids the costly process of action labeling. Additionally, compared to online learning, which often involves aimless exploration, our data provides useful guidance for more efficient exploration. To achieve our goal, we propose a novel subgoal guidance learning strategy. The motivation behind this strategy is that long-horizon goals offer limited guidance for efficient exploration and accurate state transition. We develop a diffusion strategy-based high-level policy to generate reasonable subgoals as waypoints, preferring states that more easily lead to the final goal. Additionally, we learn state-goal value functions to encourage efficient subgoal reaching. These two components naturally integrate into the off-policy actor-critic framework, enabling efficient goal attainment through informative exploration. We evaluate our method on complex robotic navigation and manipulation tasks, demonstrating a significant performance advantage over existing methods. Our ablation study further shows that our method is robust to observation data with various corruptions.

Existing visual tracking methods typically take an image patch as the reference of the target to perform tracking. However, a single image patch cannot provide a complete and precise concept of the target object as images are limited in their ability to abstract and can be ambiguous, which makes it difficult to track targets with drastic variations. In this paper, we propose the CiteTracker to enhance target modeling and inference in visual tracking by connecting images and text. Specifically, we develop a text generation module to convert the target image patch into a descriptive text containing its class and attribute information, providing a comprehensive reference point for the target. In addition, a dynamic description module is designed to adapt to target variations for more effective target representation. We then associate the target description and the search image using an attention-based correlation module to generate the correlated features for target state reference. Extensive experiments on five diverse datasets are conducted to evaluate the proposed algorithm and the favorable performance against the state-of-the-art methods demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed tracking method.

Advances in learning-based robotic manipulation, such as Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models and Video Action Models (VAMs), heavily rely on high-quality teleoperation data. Their capabilities are strictly upper-bounded by the quality of the underlying human demonstrations. Current gradient-based retargeting algorithms often converge to different local minima, resulting in jitter that affects data quality and teleoperation experience. To address this, we introduce the Sampling-Based Retargeter (SBR), a novel gradient-free retargeting method drawn from the rich literature of sampling-based control and explicitly designed for low-jitter, real-time kinematic retargeting. We evaluate SBR both in simulation and through a rigorous real-world user study involving 18 participants performing 3 complex manipulation tasks. Compared to gradient-based baselines, SBR achieved the highest overall task success rate (54.1%) while significantly reducing operator cognitive fatigue, recording the lowest NASA-TLX workload score (36.4 out of 100). Ultimately, we establish SBR as a highly effective, intuitive retargeter for dexterous manipulation, providing the community with a rigorous benchmarking methodology to guide future retargeting research.

"Search for" or "Navigate to"? When finding an object, the two choices always come up in our subconscious mind. Before seeing the target, we search for the target based on experience. After seeing the target, we remember the target location and navigate to. However, recently methods in object navigation field almost only consider using object association to enhance "search for" phase while neglect the importance of "navigate to" phase. Therefore, this paper proposes the dual adaptive thinking (DAT) method to flexibly adjust the different thinking strategies at different navigation stages. Dual thinking includes search thinking with the object association ability and navigation thinking with the target location ability. To make the navigation thinking more effective, we design the target-oriented memory graph (TOMG) to store historical target information and the target-aware multi-scale aggregator (TAMSA) to encode the relative target position. We assess our methods on the AI2-Thor dataset. Compared with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) method, our method reports 10.8%, 21.5% and 15.7% increase in success rate (SR), success weighted by path length (SPL) and success weighted by navigation efficiency (SNE), respectively.

Real-world machine learning deployments are characterized by mismatches between the source (training) and target (test) distributions that may cause performance drops. In this work, we investigate methods for predicting the target domain accuracy using only labeled source data and unlabeled target data. We propose Average Thresholded Confidence (ATC), a practical method that learns a threshold on the model's confidence, predicting accuracy as the fraction of unlabeled examples for which model confidence exceeds that threshold. ATC outperforms previous methods across several model architectures, types of distribution shifts (e.g., due to synthetic corruptions, dataset reproduction, or novel subpopulations), and datasets (Wilds, ImageNet, Breeds, CIFAR, and MNIST). In our experiments, ATC estimates target performance 2-4times more accurately than prior methods. We also explore the theoretical foundations of the problem, proving that, in general, identifying the accuracy is just as hard as identifying the optimal predictor and thus, the efficacy of any method rests upon (perhaps unstated) assumptions on the nature of the shift. Finally, analyzing our method on some toy distributions, we provide insights concerning when it works. Code is available at https://github.com/saurabhgarg1996/ATC_code/.

Current state-of-the-art autonomous driving vehicles mainly rely on each individual sensor system to perform perception tasks. Such a framework's reliability could be limited by occlusion or sensor failure. To address this issue, more recent research proposes using vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) communication to share perception information with others. However, most relevant works focus only on cooperative detection and leave cooperative tracking an underexplored research field. A few recent datasets, such as V2V4Real, provide 3D multi-object cooperative tracking benchmarks. However, their proposed methods mainly use cooperative detection results as input to a standard single-sensor Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithm. In their approach, the measurement uncertainty of different sensors from different connected autonomous vehicles (CAVs) may not be properly estimated to utilize the theoretical optimality property of Kalman Filter-based tracking algorithms. In this paper, we propose a novel 3D multi-object cooperative tracking algorithm for autonomous driving via a differentiable multi-sensor Kalman Filter. Our algorithm learns to estimate measurement uncertainty for each detection that can better utilize the theoretical property of Kalman Filter-based tracking methods. The experiment results show that our algorithm improves the tracking accuracy by 17% with only 0.037x communication costs compared with the state-of-the-art method in V2V4Real. Our code and videos are available at https://github.com/eddyhkchiu/DMSTrack/ and https://eddyhkchiu.github.io/dmstrack.github.io/ .

Existing motion planning methods often struggle with rapid-motion obstacles due to an insufficient understanding of environmental changes. To address this, we propose integrating motion planners with Doppler LiDARs, which provide not only ranging measurements but also instantaneous point velocities. However, this integration is nontrivial due to the requirements of high accuracy and high frequency. To this end, we introduce Doppler Planning Network (DPNet), which tracks and reacts to rapid obstacles via Doppler model-based learning. We first propose a Doppler Kalman neural network (D-KalmanNet) to track obstacle states under a partially observable Gaussian state space model. We then leverage the predicted motions of obstacles to construct a Doppler-tuned model predictive control (DT-MPC) framework for ego-motion planning, enabling runtime auto-tuning of controller parameters. These two modules allow DPNet to learn fast environmental changes from minimal data while remaining lightweight, achieving high frequency and high accuracy in both tracking and planning. Experiments on high-fidelity simulator and real-world datasets demonstrate the superiority of DPNet over extensive benchmark schemes. Code available at https://github.com/UUwei-zuo/DPNet

This paper addresses limitations in 3D tracking-by-detection methods, particularly in identifying legitimate trajectories and reducing state estimation drift in Kalman filters. Existing methods often use threshold-based filtering for detection scores, which can fail for distant and occluded objects, leading to false positives. To tackle this, we propose a novel track validity mechanism and multi-stage observational gating process, significantly reducing ghost tracks and enhancing tracking performance. Our method achieves a 29.47% improvement in Multi-Object Tracking Accuracy (MOTA) on the KITTI validation dataset with the Second detector. Additionally, a refined Kalman filter term reduces localization noise, improving higher-order tracking accuracy (HOTA) by 4.8%. The online framework, RobMOT, outperforms state-of-the-art methods across multiple detectors, with HOTA improvements of up to 3.92% on the KITTI testing dataset and 8.7% on the validation dataset, while achieving low identity switch scores. RobMOT excels in challenging scenarios, tracking distant objects and prolonged occlusions, with a 1.77% MOTA improvement on the Waymo Open dataset, and operates at a remarkable 3221 FPS on a single CPU, proving its efficiency for real-time multi-object tracking.

Policy gradient methods rely on a baseline to measure the relative advantage of an action, ensuring the model reinforces behaviors that outperform its current average capability. In the training of Large Language Models (LLMs) using Actor-Critic methods (e.g., PPO), this baseline is typically estimated by a Value Model (Critic) often as large as the policy model itself. However, as the policy continuously evolves, the value model requires expensive, synchronous incremental training to accurately track the shifting capabilities of the policy. To avoid this overhead, Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) eliminates the coupled value model by using the average reward of a group of rollouts as the baseline; yet, this approach necessitates extensive sampling to maintain estimation stability. In this paper, we propose V_0, a Generalist Value Model capable of estimating the expected performance of any model on unseen prompts without requiring parameter updates. We reframe value estimation by treating the policy's dynamic capability as an explicit context input; specifically, we leverage a history of instruction-performance pairs to dynamically profile the model, departing from the traditional paradigm that relies on parameter fitting to perceive capability shifts. Focusing on value estimation at State Zero (i.e., the initial prompt, hence V_0), our model serves as a critical resource scheduler. During GRPO training, V_0 predicts success rates prior to rollout, allowing for efficient sampling budget allocation; during deployment, it functions as a router, dispatching instructions to the most cost-effective and suitable model. Empirical results demonstrate that V_0 significantly outperforms heuristic budget allocation and achieves a Pareto-optimal trade-off between performance and cost in LLM routing tasks.

The precise knowledge regarding the state of the power grid is important in order to ensure optimal and reliable grid operation. Specifically, knowing the state of the distribution grid becomes increasingly important as more renewable energy sources are connected directly into the distribution network, increasing the fluctuations of the injected power. In this paper, we consider the case when the distribution grid becomes partially observable, and the state estimation problem is under-determined. We present a new methodology that leverages a deep neural network (DNN) to estimate the grid state. The standard DNN training method is modified to explicitly incorporate the physical information of the grid topology and line/shunt admittance. We show that our method leads to a superior accuracy of the estimation when compared to the case when no physical information is provided. Finally, we compare the performance of our method to the standard state estimation approach, which is based on the weighted least squares with pseudo-measurements, and show that our method performs significantly better with respect to the estimation accuracy.

Visual object tracking has gained promising progress in past decades. Most of the existing approaches focus on learning target representation in well-conditioned daytime data, while for the unconstrained real-world scenarios with adverse weather conditions, e.g. nighttime or foggy environment, the tremendous domain shift leads to significant performance degradation. In this paper, we propose UMDATrack, which is capable of maintaining high-quality target state prediction under various adverse weather conditions within a unified domain adaptation framework. Specifically, we first use a controllable scenario generator to synthesize a small amount of unlabeled videos (less than 2% frames in source daytime datasets) in multiple weather conditions under the guidance of different text prompts. Afterwards, we design a simple yet effective domain-customized adapter (DCA), allowing the target objects' representation to rapidly adapt to various weather conditions without redundant model updating. Furthermore, to enhance the localization consistency between source and target domains, we propose a target-aware confidence alignment module (TCA) following optimal transport theorem. Extensive experiments demonstrate that UMDATrack can surpass existing advanced visual trackers and lead new state-of-the-art performance by a significant margin. Our code is available at https://github.com/Z-Z188/UMDATrack.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

The online fusion and tracking of static objects from heterogeneous sensor detections is a fundamental problem in robotics, autonomous systems, and environmental mapping. Although classical data association approaches such as JPDA are well suited for dynamic targets, they are less effective for static objects observed intermittently and with heterogeneous uncertainties, where motion models provide minimal discriminative power with respect to clutter. In this paper, we propose a novel method for static object data association by clustering multi-modal sensor detections online (SODA-CitrON), while simultaneously estimating positions and maintaining persistent tracks for an unknown number of objects. The proposed unsupervised machine learning approach operates in a fully online manner and handles temporally uncorrelated and multi-sensor measurements. Additionally, it has a worst-case loglinear complexity in the number of sensor detections while providing full output explainability. We evaluate the proposed approach in different Monte Carlo simulation scenarios and compare it against state-of-the-art methods, including POM-based filtering, DBSTREAM clustering, and JPDA. The results demonstrate that SODA-CitrON consistently outperforms the compared methods in terms of F1 score, position RMSE, MOTP, and MOTA in the static object mapping scenarios studied.

In this paper, we propose feedback designs for manipulating a quantum state to a target state by performing sequential measurements. In light of Belavkin's quantum feedback control theory, for a given set of (projective or non-projective) measurements and a given time horizon, we show that finding the measurement selection policy that maximizes the probability of successful state manipulation is an optimal control problem for a controlled Markovian process. The optimal policy is Markovian and can be solved by dynamical programming. Numerical examples indicate that making use of feedback information significantly improves the success probability compared to classical scheme without taking feedback. We also consider other objective functionals including maximizing the expected fidelity to the target state as well as minimizing the expected arrival time. The connections and differences among these objectives are also discussed.

Infrared unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) tracking is challenging because the target is often small, low-contrast, and easily confused with thermal distractors or cluttered backgrounds. Recent Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising performance by learning strong appearance representations, but their responses can still be dominated by background structures when the target appearance is weak or ambiguous. A natural solution is to introduce temporal motion cues. However, in infrared UAV tracking, motion cues are not always reliable: camera jitter, dynamic backgrounds, sensor noise, and target disappearance may produce temporal variations that are stronger than the true target motion. Therefore, the key challenge is not simply how to use motion, but how to distinguish target-consistent motion from background-induced pseudo motion. To this end, we propose CMRTrack, a counterfactual motion reliability learning framework for robust infrared UAV tracking. CMRTrack first extracts temporal evidence from adjacent search regions using a lightweight motion evidence encoder. During training, a counterfactual target-erased history branch is introduced to construct hard motion references, encouraging the motion encoder to learn reliable target-consistent motion rather than arbitrary temporal changes. The learned motion evidence is then incorporated into a one-stream tracking framework through motion-guided token modulation and reliability-aware score fusion, enabling adaptive feature enhancement and response refinement. Extensive experiments on Anti-UAV410 demonstrate that CMRTrack consistently outperforms representative state-of-the-art trackers and significantly improves the OSTrack baseline, with ablation studies and qualitative analysis verifying the effectiveness of the proposed counterfactual motion reliability learning.

Automatic target recognition (ATR) plays a critical role in tasks such as navigation and surveillance, where safety and accuracy are paramount. In extreme use cases, such as military applications, these factors are often challenged due to the presence of unknown terrains, environmental conditions, and novel object categories. Current object detectors, including open-world detectors, lack the ability to confidently recognize novel objects or operate in unknown environments, as they have not been exposed to these new conditions. However, Large Vision-Language Models (LVLMs) exhibit emergent properties that enable them to recognize objects in varying conditions in a zero-shot manner. Despite this, LVLMs struggle to localize objects effectively within a scene. To address these limitations, we propose a novel pipeline that combines the detection capabilities of open-world detectors with the recognition confidence of LVLMs, creating a robust system for zero-shot ATR of novel classes and unknown domains. In this study, we compare the performance of various LVLMs for recognizing military vehicles, which are often underrepresented in training datasets. Additionally, we examine the impact of factors such as distance range, modality, and prompting methods on the recognition performance, providing insights into the development of more reliable ATR systems for novel conditions and classes.

3D object localisation based on a sequence of camera measurements is essential for safety-critical surveillance tasks, such as drone-based wildfire monitoring. Localisation of objects detected with a camera can typically be solved with dense depth estimation or 3D scene reconstruction. However, in the context of distant objects or tasks limited by the amount of available computational resources, neither solution is feasible. In this paper, we show that the task can be solved using particle filters for both single and multiple target scenarios. The method was studied using a 3D simulation and a drone-based image segmentation sequence with global navigation satellite system (GNSS)-based camera pose estimates. The results showed that a particle filter can be used to solve practical localisation tasks based on camera poses and image segments in these situations where other solutions fail. The particle filter is independent of the detection method, making it flexible for new tasks. The study also demonstrates that drone-based wildfire monitoring can be conducted using the proposed method paired with a pre-existing image segmentation model.

This work presents a probabilistic digital twin framework for response prediction in dynamical systems governed by misspecified physics. The approach integrates Gaussian Process Latent Force Models (GPLFM) and Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) to enable end-to-end uncertainty-aware inference and prediction. In the diagnosis phase, model-form errors (MFEs) are treated as latent input forces to a nominal linear dynamical system and jointly estimated with system states using GPLFM from sensor measurements. A BNN is then trained on posterior samples to learn a probabilistic nonlinear mapping from system states to MFEs, while capturing diagnostic uncertainty. For prognosis, this mapping is used to generate pseudo-measurements, enabling state prediction via Kalman filtering. The framework allows for systematic propagation of uncertainty from diagnosis to prediction, a key capability for trustworthy digital twins. The framework is demonstrated using four nonlinear examples: a single degree of freedom (DOF) oscillator, a multi-DOF system, and two established benchmarks -- the Bouc-Wen hysteretic system and the Silverbox experimental dataset -- highlighting its predictive accuracy and robustness to model misspecification.

We present a deeply integrated method of exploiting low-cost gyroscopes to improve general purpose feature tracking. Most previous methods use gyroscopes to initialize and bound the search for features. In contrast, we use them to regularize the tracking energy function so that they can directly assist in the tracking of ambiguous and poor-quality features. We demonstrate that our simple technique offers significant improvements in performance over conventional template-based tracking methods, and is in fact competitive with more complex and computationally expensive state-of-the-art trackers, but at a fraction of the computational cost. Additionally, we show that the practice of initializing template-based feature trackers like KLT (Kanade-Lucas-Tomasi) using gyro-predicted optical flow offers no advantage over using a careful optical-only initialization method, suggesting that some deeper level of integration, like the method we propose, is needed in order to realize a genuine improvement in tracking performance from these inertial sensors.

In reinforcement learning and imitation learning, an object of central importance is the state distribution induced by the policy. It plays a crucial role in the policy gradient theorem, and references to it--along with the related state-action distribution--can be found all across the literature. Despite its importance, the state distribution is mostly discussed indirectly and theoretically, rather than being modeled explicitly. The reason being an absence of appropriate density estimation tools. In this work, we investigate applications of a normalizing flow-based model for the aforementioned distributions. In particular, we use a pair of flows coupled through the optimality point of the Donsker-Varadhan representation of the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, for distribution matching based imitation learning. Our algorithm, Coupled Flow Imitation Learning (CFIL), achieves state-of-the-art performance on benchmark tasks with a single expert trajectory and extends naturally to a variety of other settings, including the subsampled and state-only regimes.

Vision-language tracking aims to locate the target object in the video sequence using a template patch and a language description provided in the initial frame. To achieve robust tracking, especially in complex long-term scenarios that reflect real-world conditions as recently highlighted by MGIT, it is essential not only to characterize the target features but also to utilize the context features related to the target. However, the visual and textual target-context cues derived from the initial prompts generally align only with the initial target state. Due to their dynamic nature, target states are constantly changing, particularly in complex long-term sequences. It is intractable for these cues to continuously guide Vision-Language Trackers (VLTs). Furthermore, for the text prompts with diverse expressions, our experiments reveal that existing VLTs struggle to discern which words pertain to the target or the context, complicating the utilization of textual cues. In this work, we present a novel tracker named ATCTrack, which can obtain multimodal cues Aligned with the dynamic target states through comprehensive Target-Context feature modeling, thereby achieving robust tracking. Specifically, (1) for the visual modality, we propose an effective temporal visual target-context modeling approach that provides the tracker with timely visual cues. (2) For the textual modality, we achieve precise target words identification solely based on textual content, and design an innovative context words calibration method to adaptively utilize auxiliary context words. (3) We conduct extensive experiments on mainstream benchmarks and ATCTrack achieves a new SOTA performance. The code and models will be released at: https://github.com/XiaokunFeng/ATCTrack.

Skid-steered wheel mobile robots (SSWMRs) are characterized by the unique domination of the tire-terrain skidding for the robot to move. The lack of reliable friction models cascade into unreliable motion models, especially the reduced ordered variants used for state estimation and robot control. Ensemble modeling is an emerging research direction where the overall motion model is broken down into a family of local models to distribute the performance and resource requirement and provide a fast real-time prediction. To this end, a gaussian mixture model based modeling identification of model clusters is adopted and implemented within an interactive multiple model (IMM) based state estimation. The framework is adopted and implemented for angular velocity as the estimated state for a mid scaled skid-steered wheel mobile robot platform.

Tracking by detection has been the prevailing paradigm in the field of Multi-object Tracking (MOT). These methods typically rely on the Kalman Filter to estimate the future locations of objects, assuming linear object motion. However, they fall short when tracking objects exhibiting nonlinear and diverse motion in scenarios like dancing and sports. In addition, there has been limited focus on utilizing learning-based motion predictors in MOT. To address these challenges, we resort to exploring data-driven motion prediction methods. Inspired by the great expectation of state space models (SSMs), such as Mamba, in long-term sequence modeling with near-linear complexity, we introduce a Mamba-based motion model named Mamba moTion Predictor (MTP). MTP is designed to model the complex motion patterns of objects like dancers and athletes. Specifically, MTP takes the spatial-temporal location dynamics of objects as input, captures the motion pattern using a bi-Mamba encoding layer, and predicts the next motion. In real-world scenarios, objects may be missed due to occlusion or motion blur, leading to premature termination of their trajectories. To tackle this challenge, we further expand the application of MTP. We employ it in an autoregressive way to compensate for missing observations by utilizing its own predictions as inputs, thereby contributing to more consistent trajectories. Our proposed tracker, MambaTrack, demonstrates advanced performance on benchmarks such as Dancetrack and SportsMOT, which are characterized by complex motion and severe occlusion.

A common problem for agents operating in real-world environments is that the response of an environment to their actions may be non-deterministic and observed through noise. This renders environmental state and progress towards completing a task latent. Despite recent impressive demonstrations of LLM's reasoning abilities on various benchmarks, whether LLMs can build estimates of latent state and leverage them for reasoning has not been explicitly studied. We investigate this problem in the real-world domain of autonomous UI agents. We establish that appropriately prompting LLMs in a zero-shot manner can be formally understood as forming point estimates of latent state in a textual space. In the context of autonomous UI agents we then show that LLMs used in this manner are more than 76% accurate at inferring various aspects of latent state, such as performed (vs. commanded) actions and task progression. Using both public and internal benchmarks and three reasoning methods (zero-shot, CoT-SC & ReAct), we show that LLM-powered agents that explicitly estimate and reason about latent state are able to successfully complete up to 1.6x more tasks than those that do not.

Automatic Target Detection (ATD) and Recognition (ATR) from Thermal Infrared (TI) imagery in the defense and surveillance domain is a challenging computer vision (CV) task in comparison to the commercial autonomous vehicle perception domain. Limited datasets, peculiar domain-specific and TI modality-specific challenges, i.e., limited hardware, scale invariance issues due to greater distances, deliberate occlusion by tactical vehicles, lower sensor resolution and resultant lack of structural information in targets, effects of weather, temperature, and time of day variations, and varying target to clutter ratios all result in increased intra-class variability and higher inter-class similarity, making accurate real-time ATR a challenging CV task. Resultantly, contemporary state-of-the-art (SOTA) deep learning architectures underperform in the ATR domain. We propose a modified anchor-based single-stage detector, called YOLOatr, based on a modified YOLOv5s, with optimal modifications to the detection heads, feature fusion in the neck, and a custom augmentation profile. We evaluate the performance of our proposed model on a comprehensive DSIAC MWIR dataset for real-time ATR over both correlated and decorrelated testing protocols. The results demonstrate that our proposed model achieves state-of-the-art ATR performance of up to 99.6%.

Existing active reconstruction systems with Gaussian-splatting maps select observations greedily, optimizing a single next-best-view (NBV) at each step and connecting the chosen views by short-horizon path planning. This greedy decoupling disregards the global structure of scene information, producing inefficient trajectories that waste sensing capacity in transit between selected views. In this work, we study active reconstruction as an ergodic coverage problem: the time-averaged spatial statistics of the sensor trajectory should match a target information distribution induced by the current map. Our approach derives this target distribution online from uncertainty and visibility, and calculates ergodic trajectories via a kernel-ergodic horizon planner with gradient flow and footprint depletion, closing the loop between mapping and trajectory optimization. We thoroughly evaluate TRACE on the Replica dataset against the Next-Best-View (NBV) baselines, improving PSNR by 1.5 dB. Code: https://github.com/spikelab-jhu/trace-active-reconstruction.

Inertial sensors play a pivotal role in indoor localization, which in turn lays the foundation for pervasive personal applications. However, low-cost inertial sensors, as commonly found in smartphones, are plagued by bias and noise, which leads to unbounded growth in error when accelerations are double integrated to obtain displacement. Small errors in state estimation propagate to make odometry virtually unusable in a matter of seconds. We propose to break the cycle of continuous integration, and instead segment inertial data into independent windows. The challenge becomes estimating the latent states of each window, such as velocity and orientation, as these are not directly observable from sensor data. We demonstrate how to formulate this as an optimization problem, and show how deep recurrent neural networks can yield highly accurate trajectories, outperforming state-of-the-art shallow techniques, on a wide range of tests and attachments. In particular, we demonstrate that IONet can generalize to estimate odometry for non-periodic motion, such as a shopping trolley or baby-stroller, an extremely challenging task for existing techniques.

Embodied visual tracking (EVT) requires a mobile agent to continuously follow a specific target described in natural language using only onboard vision. While recent vision-language-action (VLA) policies unify target identification and trajectory planning, their chain-of-thought (CoT) reasoning often operates in abstract spatial latents that are difficult to supervise and weakly aligned with explicit image-space detections. To address this, we introduce ReferTrack, a referring-then-tracking paradigm that grounds EVT using a single forward-facing camera. Our model first selects the target from an indexed set of bounding boxes, then decodes tracking waypoints conditioned on this image-grounded decision. To preserve target motion cues over time, ReferTrack maintains a sliding-window queue of previously selected bounding boxes, injecting their geometric features into the visual history via temporal-viewpoint-bbox indicator (TVBI) tokens. We further enhance target identification by co-training on a custom Refer-QA dataset. On EVT-Bench, ReferTrack achieves state-of-the-art single-view performance with success rates of 89.4%, 73.3%, and 74.1% on the single-target, distracted, and ambiguity tracking splits, respectively -- matching or even surpassing several multi-camera baselines on identification-heavy tasks. Finally, real-world deployments on legged and humanoid robots validate its robust sim-to-real transfer capabilities. Code is available at https://github.com/MedlarTea/referTrack.

While recent world models generate highly realistic videos, their ability to perform robot path planning remains unclear and unquantified. We introduce Target-Bench, the first benchmark specifically designed to evaluate world models on mapless path planning toward semantic targets in real-world environments. Target-Bench provides 450 robot-collected video sequences spanning 45 semantic categories with SLAM-based ground truth trajectories. Our evaluation pipeline recovers camera motion from generated videos and measures planning performance using five complementary metrics that quantify target-reaching capability, trajectory accuracy, and directional consistency. We evaluate state-of-the-art models including Sora 2, Veo 3.1, and the Wan series. The best off-the-shelf model (Wan2.2-Flash) achieves only 0.299 overall score, revealing significant limitations in current world models for robotic planning tasks. We show that fine-tuning an open-source 5B-parameter model on only 325 scenarios from our dataset achieves 0.345 overall score -- an improvement of more than 400% over its base version (0.066) and 15% higher than the best off-the-shelf model. We will open-source the code and dataset.

We envision a future time when wearable cameras are worn by the masses and recording first-person point-of-view videos of everyday life. While these cameras can enable new assistive technologies and novel research challenges, they also raise serious privacy concerns. For example, first-person videos passively recorded by wearable cameras will necessarily include anyone who comes into the view of a camera -- with or without consent. Motivated by these benefits and risks, we developed a self-search technique tailored to first-person videos. The key observation of our work is that the egocentric head motion of a target person (ie, the self) is observed both in the point-of-view video of the target and observer. The motion correlation between the target person's video and the observer's video can then be used to identify instances of the self uniquely. We incorporate this feature into the proposed approach that computes the motion correlation over densely-sampled trajectories to search for a target individual in observer videos. Our approach significantly improves self-search performance over several well-known face detectors and recognizers. Furthermore, we show how our approach can enable several practical applications such as privacy filtering, target video retrieval, and social group clustering.

In RL, given a prompt, we sample a group of completions from a model and score them. Two questions follow: which completions should gain probability mass, and how should the parameters move to realize that change? Standard policy-gradient methods answer both at once, so the update can overshoot or undershoot depending on the learning rate, clipping, and other optimizer choices. We introduce Target Policy Optimization (TPO), which separates the two questions. Given scored completions, TPO constructs a target distribution q_i propto p_i^{,old} exp(u_i) and fits the policy to it by cross-entropy. The loss gradient on sampled-completion logits is p^θ- q, which vanishes once the policy matches the target. On tabular bandits, transformer sequence tasks, and billion-parameter LLM RLVR, TPO matches PG, PPO, GRPO, and DG on easy tasks and substantially outperforms them under sparse reward. Code is available at https://github.com/JeanKaddour/tpo.

In this work, we study policy poisoning through state manipulation, also known as sensor spoofing, and focus specifically on the case of an agent forming a control policy through batch learning in a linear-quadratic (LQ) system. In this scenario, an attacker aims to trick the learner into implementing a targeted malicious policy by manipulating the batch data before the agent begins its learning process. An attack model is crafted to carry out the poisoning strategically, with the goal of modifying the batch data as little as possible to avoid detection by the learner. We establish an optimization framework to guide the design of such policy poisoning attacks. The presence of bi-linear constraints in the optimization problem requires the design of a computationally efficient algorithm to obtain a solution. Therefore, we develop an iterative scheme based on the Alternating Direction Method of Multipliers (ADMM) which is able to return solutions that are approximately optimal. Several case studies are used to demonstrate the effectiveness of the algorithm in carrying out the sensor-based attack on the batch-learning agent in LQ control systems.

In this article, we present a structured Kalman filter associated with the transformation matrix for observable Kalman canonical decomposition from conventional Kalman filter (CKF) in order to generate a more accurate time scale. The conventional Kalman filter is a special case of the proposed structured Kalman filter which yields the same predicted unobservable or observable states when some conditions are satisfied. We consider an optimization problem respective to the transformation matrix where the objective function is associated with not only the expected value of prediction error but also its variance. We reveal that such an objective function is a convex function and show some conditions under which CKF is nothing but the optimal algorithm if ideal computation is possible without computation error. A numerical example is presented to show the robustness of the proposed method in terms of the initial error covariance

We introduce a multi-fidelity estimator of covariance matrices that employs the log-Euclidean geometry of the symmetric positive-definite manifold. The estimator fuses samples from a hierarchy of data sources of differing fidelities and costs for variance reduction while guaranteeing definiteness, in contrast with previous approaches. The new estimator makes covariance estimation tractable in applications where simulation or data collection is expensive; to that end, we develop an optimal sample allocation scheme that minimizes the mean-squared error of the estimator given a fixed budget. Guaranteed definiteness is crucial to metric learning, data assimilation, and other downstream tasks. Evaluations of our approach using data from physical applications (heat conduction, fluid dynamics) demonstrate more accurate metric learning and speedups of more than one order of magnitude compared to benchmarks.

Black-box adversarial attacks that minimize only the ground-truth confidence suffer from class drift: perturbations wander through the feature space without committing to a specific adversarial class, wasting queries on diffuse, undirected progress. We introduce Opportunistic Target Selection (OTS), a lightweight wrapper that switches an untargeted attack to a targeted objective early in its trajectory, locking onto whichever non-true class currently leads. OTS requires no architectural modification to the underlying attack, no gradient access, and no a priori target-class knowledge. We validate OTS on three score-based attacks (SimBA, Square Attack with cross-entropy loss, and Bandits) across five standard ImageNet classifiers (4,500 runs). On random-search attacks, OTS closely tracks oracle performance, with gains up to +27 pp in success rate and 43% relative reduction in censored-mean iterations on ResNet-50. On gradient-estimation attacks (Bandits) and attacks with margin loss, OTS is redundant, a negative result that reinforces our interpretation of OTS as a margin-loss surrogate. On adversarially-trained models, a bimodal difficulty distribution eliminates the regime where targeting helps.

This paper proposes MATT-Diff: Multimodal Active Target Tracking by Diffusion Policy, a control policy for active multi-target tracking using a mobile agent. The policy enables multiple behavior modes for the agent, including exploration, tracking, and target reacquisition, without prior knowledge of the target numbers, states, or dynamics. Effective target tracking demands balancing exploration for undetected or lost targets with exploitation, i.e., uncertainty reduction, of detected but uncertain ones. We generate a demonstration dataset from three expert planners including frontier-based exploration, an uncertainty-based hybrid planner switching between frontier-based exploration and RRT* tracking, and a time-based hybrid planner switching between exploration and target reacquisition based on target detection time. Our control policy utilizes a vision transformer for egocentric map tokenization and an attention mechanism to integrate variable target estimates represented by Gaussian densities. Trained as a diffusion model, the policy learns to generate multimodal action sequences through a denoising process. Evaluations demonstrate MATT-Diff's superior tracking performance against other learning-based baselines in novel environments, as well as its multimodal behavior sourced from the multiple expert planners. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/CINAPSLab/MATT-Diff.

Accurate state estimation in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) is crucial for ensuring reliable and safe operation, as anomalies occurring during mission execution may induce discrepancies between expected and observed system behaviors, thereby compromising mission success or posing potential safety hazards. It is essential to continuously monitor and detect such conditions in order to ensure a timely response and maintain system reliability. In this work, we focus on UAV state estimation anomalies and provide a large-scale real-world UAV dataset to facilitate research aimed at improving the development of anomaly detection. Unlike existing datasets that primarily rely on injected faults into simulated data, this dataset comprises 1396 real flight logs totaling over 52 hours of flight time, collected across diverse indoor and outdoor environments using a collection of PX4-based UAVs equipped with a variety of sensor configurations. The dataset comprises both normal and anomalous flights without synthetic manipulation, making it uniquely suitable for realistic anomaly detection tasks. A structured classification is proposed that categorizes UAV state estimation anomalies into four classes: mechanical and electrical, external position, global position, and altitude anomalies. These classifications reflect collective, contextual, and outlier anomalies observed in multivariate sensor data streams, including IMU, GPS, barometer, magnetometer, distance sensors, visual odometry, and optical flow, that can be found in the PX4 logging mechanism. It is anticipated that this dataset will play a key role in the development, training, and evaluation of anomaly detection and isolation systems to address the critical gap in UAV reliability research.

We investigate the exploration of an unknown environment when no reward function is provided. Building on the incremental exploration setting introduced by Lim and Auer [1], we define the objective of learning the set of ε-optimal goal-conditioned policies attaining all states that are incrementally reachable within L steps (in expectation) from a reference state s_0. In this paper, we introduce a novel model-based approach that interleaves discovering new states from s_0 and improving the accuracy of a model estimate that is used to compute goal-conditioned policies to reach newly discovered states. The resulting algorithm, DisCo, achieves a sample complexity scaling as O(L^5 S_{L+ε} Γ_{L+ε} A ε^{-2}), where A is the number of actions, S_{L+ε} is the number of states that are incrementally reachable from s_0 in L+ε steps, and Γ_{L+ε} is the branching factor of the dynamics over such states. This improves over the algorithm proposed in [1] in both ε and L at the cost of an extra Γ_{L+ε} factor, which is small in most environments of interest. Furthermore, DisCo is the first algorithm that can return an ε/c_{min}-optimal policy for any cost-sensitive shortest-path problem defined on the L-reachable states with minimum cost c_{min}. Finally, we report preliminary empirical results confirming our theoretical findings.

This paper studies attack detection for discrete-time linear systems with stochastic process noise that produce both a vulnerable (i.e., attackable) linear measurement and a secured (i.e., unattackable) quadratic measurement. The motivating application of this model is a dynamic-game setting where the quadratic measurement is interpreted as a system-level utility or reward, and control inputs into the linear system are interpreted as control policies that, once applied, are known to all game participants and which steer the system towards a game-theoretic equilibrium (e.g., Nash equilibrium). To detect attacks on the linear channel, we develop a novel quadratic-utility-aware observer that leverages the secured quadratic output and enforces measurement consistency via a projection step. We establish three properties for this observer: feasibility of the true state, prox-regularity of the quadratic-constraint set, and a monotone error-reduction guarantee in the noise-free case. To detect adversarial manipulation, we compare linear and quadratic observer trajectories using a wild bootstrap maximum mean discrepancy (MMD) test that provides valid inference under temporal dependence. We validate our framework using numerical experiments of a pursuit-evasion game, where the quadratic observer preserves estimation accuracy under linear-sensor attacks, while the statistical test detects distributional divergence between the observers' trajectories.

Tracking any given object(s) spatially and temporally is a common purpose in Visual Object Tracking (VOT) and Video Object Segmentation (VOS). Joint tracking and segmentation have been attempted in some studies but they often lack full compatibility of both box and mask in initialization and prediction, and mainly focus on single-object scenarios. To address these limitations, this paper proposes a Multi-object Mask-box Integrated framework for unified Tracking and Segmentation, dubbed MITS. Firstly, the unified identification module is proposed to support both box and mask reference for initialization, where detailed object information is inferred from boxes or directly retained from masks. Additionally, a novel pinpoint box predictor is proposed for accurate multi-object box prediction, facilitating target-oriented representation learning. All target objects are processed simultaneously from encoding to propagation and decoding, as a unified pipeline for VOT and VOS. Experimental results show MITS achieves state-of-the-art performance on both VOT and VOS benchmarks. Notably, MITS surpasses the best prior VOT competitor by around 6% on the GOT-10k test set, and significantly improves the performance of box initialization on VOS benchmarks. The code is available at https://github.com/yoxu515/MITS.

Humanoid motion tracking policies are central to building teleoperation pipelines and hierarchical controllers, yet they face a fundamental challenge: the embodiment gap between humans and humanoid robots. Current approaches address this gap by retargeting human motion data to humanoid embodiments and then training reinforcement learning (RL) policies to imitate these reference trajectories. However, artifacts introduced during retargeting, such as foot sliding, self-penetration, and physically infeasible motion are often left in the reference trajectories for the RL policy to correct. While prior work has demonstrated motion tracking abilities, they often require extensive reward engineering and domain randomization to succeed. In this paper, we systematically evaluate how retargeting quality affects policy performance when excessive reward tuning is suppressed. To address issues that we identify with existing retargeting methods, we propose a new retargeting method, General Motion Retargeting (GMR). We evaluate GMR alongside two open-source retargeters, PHC and ProtoMotions, as well as with a high-quality closed-source dataset from Unitree. Using BeyondMimic for policy training, we isolate retargeting effects without reward tuning. Our experiments on a diverse subset of the LAFAN1 dataset reveal that while most motions can be tracked, artifacts in retargeted data significantly reduce policy robustness, particularly for dynamic or long sequences. GMR consistently outperforms existing open-source methods in both tracking performance and faithfulness to the source motion, achieving perceptual fidelity and policy success rates close to the closed-source baseline. Website: https://jaraujo98.github.io/retargeting_matters. Code: https://github.com/YanjieZe/GMR.

The use of target networks is a popular approach for estimating value functions in deep Reinforcement Learning (RL). While effective, the target network remains a compromise solution that preserves stability at the cost of slowly moving targets, thus delaying learning. Conversely, using the online network as a bootstrapped target is intuitively appealing, albeit well-known to lead to unstable learning. In this work, we aim to obtain the best out of both worlds by introducing a novel update rule that computes the target using the MINimum estimate between the Target and Online network, giving rise to our method, MINTO. Through this simple, yet effective modification, we show that MINTO enables faster and stable value function learning, by mitigating the potential overestimation bias of using the online network for bootstrapping. Notably, MINTO can be seamlessly integrated into a wide range of value-based and actor-critic algorithms with a negligible cost. We evaluate MINTO extensively across diverse benchmarks, spanning online and offline RL, as well as discrete and continuous action spaces. Across all benchmarks, MINTO consistently improves performance, demonstrating its broad applicability and effectiveness.

We propose an approach to estimate the number of samples required for a model to reach a target performance. We find that the power law, the de facto principle to estimate model performance, leads to large error when using a small dataset (e.g., 5 samples per class) for extrapolation. This is because the log-performance error against the log-dataset size follows a nonlinear progression in the few-shot regime followed by a linear progression in the high-shot regime. We introduce a novel piecewise power law (PPL) that handles the two data regimes differently. To estimate the parameters of the PPL, we introduce a random forest regressor trained via meta learning that generalizes across classification/detection tasks, ResNet/ViT based architectures, and random/pre-trained initializations. The PPL improves the performance estimation on average by 37% across 16 classification and 33% across 10 detection datasets, compared to the power law. We further extend the PPL to provide a confidence bound and use it to limit the prediction horizon that reduces over-estimation of data by 76% on classification and 91% on detection datasets.

Inertial odometry is an attractive solution to the problem of state estimation for agile quadrotor flight. It is inexpensive, lightweight, and it is not affected by perceptual degradation. However, only relying on the integration of the inertial measurements for state estimation is infeasible. The errors and time-varying biases present in such measurements cause the accumulation of large drift in the pose estimates. Recently, inertial odometry has made significant progress in estimating the motion of pedestrians. State-of-the-art algorithms rely on learning a motion prior that is typical of humans but cannot be transferred to drones. In this work, we propose a learning-based odometry algorithm that uses an inertial measurement unit (IMU) as the only sensor modality for autonomous drone racing tasks. The core idea of our system is to couple a model-based filter, driven by the inertial measurements, with a learning-based module that has access to the thrust measurements. We show that our inertial odometry algorithm is superior to the state-of-the-art filter-based and optimization-based visual-inertial odometry as well as the state-of-the-art learned-inertial odometry in estimating the pose of an autonomous racing drone. Additionally, we show that our system is comparable to a visual-inertial odometry solution that uses a camera and exploits the known gate location and appearance. We believe that the application in autonomous drone racing paves the way for novel research in inertial odometry for agile quadrotor flight.

Stateful policies play an important role in reinforcement learning, such as handling partially observable environments, enhancing robustness, or imposing an inductive bias directly into the policy structure. The conventional method for training stateful policies is Backpropagation Through Time (BPTT), which comes with significant drawbacks, such as slow training due to sequential gradient propagation and the occurrence of vanishing or exploding gradients. The gradient is often truncated to address these issues, resulting in a biased policy update. We present a novel approach for training stateful policies by decomposing the latter into a stochastic internal state kernel and a stateless policy, jointly optimized by following the stateful policy gradient. We introduce different versions of the stateful policy gradient theorem, enabling us to easily instantiate stateful variants of popular reinforcement learning and imitation learning algorithms. Furthermore, we provide a theoretical analysis of our new gradient estimator and compare it with BPTT. We evaluate our approach on complex continuous control tasks, e.g., humanoid locomotion, and demonstrate that our gradient estimator scales effectively with task complexity while offering a faster and simpler alternative to BPTT.

Thermal imaging is resilient to adverse conditions, such as intense illumination, low-light operation, and fog, and can therefore mitigate odometry degradation when visible-spectrum imagery becomes unreliable. Nevertheless, most thermal cameras employ automatic gain control (AGC), and thermal images often present low global contrast despite containing informative edge structures. These characteristics undermine brightness constancy and cause conventional optical flow tracking-based odometry pipelines that fundamentally rely on the brightness constancy assumption across consecutive frames. To address these issues, we propose a general LiDAR-Inertial-Thermal SLAM system that accommodates both visible-light and thermal cameras. PL-LIT combines an online photometric calibration module with a deep neural network for point-line feature extraction, enabling more stable and repeatable thermal tracking. For state estimation, we design a tightly coupled LiDAR-Inertial-Thermal formulation within an Error-State Iterated Kalman Filter (ESIKF). We further introduce a line-feature constraint scheme ensuring the reliability of geometric constraints across varying thermal appearances. In addition, PL-LIT builds a probabilistic thermal-intensity voxel map, which supports real-time thermal anomaly detection. Extensive experiments demonstrate that PL-LIT exhibits generality and robustness in visible-light environments, achieves state-of-the-art performance on long-range thermal infrared datasets, and provides practical safety inspection functionality based on thermographic mapping.

Many control tasks exhibit similar dynamics that can be modeled as having common latent structure. Hidden-Parameter Markov Decision Processes (HiP-MDPs) explicitly model this structure to improve sample efficiency in multi-task settings. However, this setting makes strong assumptions on the observability of the state that limit its application in real-world scenarios with rich observation spaces. In this work, we leverage ideas of common structure from the HiP-MDP setting, and extend it to enable robust state abstractions inspired by Block MDPs. We derive instantiations of this new framework for both multi-task reinforcement learning (MTRL) and meta-reinforcement learning (Meta-RL) settings. Further, we provide transfer and generalization bounds based on task and state similarity, along with sample complexity bounds that depend on the aggregate number of samples across tasks, rather than the number of tasks, a significant improvement over prior work that use the same environment assumptions. To further demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed method, we empirically compare and show improvement over multi-task and meta-reinforcement learning baselines.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) is a sample efficient technique to obtain control policies, yet unavoidable modeling errors often lead performance deterioration. The model in MBRL is often solely fitted to reconstruct dynamics, state observations in particular, while the impact of model error on the policy is not captured by the training objective. This leads to a mismatch between the intended goal of MBRL, enabling good policy and value learning, and the target of the loss function employed in practice, future state prediction. Naive intuition would suggest that value-aware model learning would fix this problem and, indeed, several solutions to this objective mismatch problem have been proposed based on theoretical analysis. However, they tend to be inferior in practice to commonly used maximum likelihood (MLE) based approaches. In this paper we propose the Value-gradient weighted Model Learning (VaGraM), a novel method for value-aware model learning which improves the performance of MBRL in challenging settings, such as small model capacity and the presence of distracting state dimensions. We analyze both MLE and value-aware approaches and demonstrate how they fail to account for exploration and the behavior of function approximation when learning value-aware models and highlight the additional goals that must be met to stabilize optimization in the deep learning setting. We verify our analysis by showing that our loss function is able to achieve high returns on the Mujoco benchmark suite while being more robust than maximum likelihood based approaches.

This work explores the in-context learning capabilities of State Space Models (SSMs) and presents, to the best of our knowledge, the first theoretical explanation of a possible underlying mechanism. We introduce a novel weight construction for SSMs, enabling them to predict the next state of any dynamical system after observing previous states without parameter fine-tuning. This is accomplished by extending the HiPPO framework to demonstrate that continuous SSMs can approximate the derivative of any input signal. Specifically, we find an explicit weight construction for continuous SSMs and provide an asymptotic error bound on the derivative approximation. The discretization of this continuous SSM subsequently yields a discrete SSM that predicts the next state. Finally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of our parameterization empirically. This work should be an initial step toward understanding how sequence models based on SSMs learn in context.

Scaling inference-time compute has emerged as an important driver of LLM performance, making inference efficiency a central focus of model design alongside model quality. While the current Transformer-based models deliver strong model quality, their quadratic compute and linear memory make inference expensive. This has spurred the development of sub-quadratic models with reduced linear compute and constant memory requirements. However, many recent linear models trade off model quality and capability for algorithmic efficiency, failing on tasks such as state tracking. Moreover, their theoretically linear inference remains hardware-inefficient in practice. Guided by an inference-first perspective, we introduce three core methodological improvements inspired by the state space model (SSM) viewpoint of linear models. We combine: (1) a more expressive recurrence derived from SSM discretization, (2) a complex-valued state update rule that enables richer state tracking, and (3) a multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) formulation for better model performance without increasing decode latency. Together with architectural refinements, our Mamba-3 model achieves significant gains across retrieval, state-tracking, and downstream language modeling tasks. At the 1.5B scale, Mamba-3 improves average downstream accuracy by 0.6 percentage points compared to the next best model (Gated DeltaNet), with Mamba-3's MIMO variant further improving accuracy by another 1.2 points for a total 1.8 point gain. Across state-size experiments, Mamba-3 achieves comparable perplexity to Mamba-2 despite using half of its predecessor's state size. Our evaluations demonstrate Mamba-3's ability to advance the performance-efficiency Pareto frontier.

We present a target-aware video diffusion model that generates videos from an input image in which an actor interacts with a specified target while performing a desired action. The target is defined by a segmentation mask and the desired action is described via a text prompt. Unlike existing controllable image-to-video diffusion models that often rely on dense structural or motion cues to guide the actor's movements toward the target, our target-aware model requires only a simple mask to indicate the target, leveraging the generalization capabilities of pretrained models to produce plausible actions. This makes our method particularly effective for human-object interaction (HOI) scenarios, where providing precise action guidance is challenging, and further enables the use of video diffusion models for high-level action planning in applications such as robotics. We build our target-aware model by extending a baseline model to incorporate the target mask as an additional input. To enforce target awareness, we introduce a special token that encodes the target's spatial information within the text prompt. We then fine-tune the model with our curated dataset using a novel cross-attention loss that aligns the cross-attention maps associated with this token with the input target mask. To further improve performance, we selectively apply this loss to the most semantically relevant transformer blocks and attention regions. Experimental results show that our target-aware model outperforms existing solutions in generating videos where actors interact accurately with the specified targets. We further demonstrate its efficacy in two downstream applications: video content creation and zero-shot 3D HOI motion synthesis.

This paper proposes a novel framework for the distributionally robust input and state estimation (DRISE) for autonomous vehicles operating under model uncertainties and measurement outliers. The proposed framework improves the input and state estimation (ISE) approach by integrating distributional robustness, enhancing the estimator's resilience and robustness to adversarial inputs and unmodeled dynamics. Moment-based ambiguity sets capture probabilistic uncertainties in both system dynamics and measurement noise, offering analytical tractability and efficiently handling uncertainties in mean and covariance. In particular, the proposed framework minimizes the worst-case estimation error, ensuring robustness against deviations from nominal distributions. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is validated through simulations conducted in the CARLA autonomous driving simulator, demonstrating improved performance in state estimation accuracy and robustness in dynamic and uncertain environments.

Activation monitoring, which probes a model's internal states using lightweight classifiers, is an emerging tool for AI safety. However, its worst-case robustness under a misalignment threat model--where a model might learn to actively conceal its internal states--remains untested. Focusing on this threat model, we ask: could a model learn to evade previously unseen activation monitors? Our core contribution is to stress-test the learnability of this behavior. We demonstrate that finetuning can create Neural Chameleons: models capable of zero-shot evading activation monitors. Specifically, we fine-tune an LLM to evade monitors for a set of benign concepts (e.g., languages, HTML) when conditioned on a trigger of the form: "You are being probed for {concept}". We show that this learned mechanism generalizes zero-shot: by substituting {concept} with a safety-relevant term like 'deception', the model successfully evades previously unseen safety monitors. We validate this phenomenon across diverse model families (Llama, Gemma, Qwen), showing that the evasion succeeds even against monitors trained post hoc on the model's frozen weights. This evasion is highly selective, targeting only the specific concept mentioned in the trigger, and having a modest impact on model capabilities on standard benchmarks. Using Gemma-2-9b-it as a case study, a mechanistic analysis reveals this is achieved via a targeted manipulation that moves activations into a low-dimensional subspace. While stronger defenses like monitor ensembles and non-linear classifiers show greater resilience, the model retains a non-trivial evasion capability. Our work provides a proof-of-concept for this failure mode and a tool to evaluate the worst-case robustness of monitoring techniques against misalignment threat models.

We consider the general class of time-homogeneous stochastic dynamical systems, both discrete and continuous, and study the problem of learning a representation of the state that faithfully captures its dynamics. This is instrumental to learning the transfer operator or the generator of the system, which in turn can be used for numerous tasks, such as forecasting and interpreting the system dynamics. We show that the search for a good representation can be cast as an optimization problem over neural networks. Our approach is supported by recent results in statistical learning theory, highlighting the role of approximation error and metric distortion in the learning problem. The objective function we propose is associated with projection operators from the representation space to the data space, overcomes metric distortion, and can be empirically estimated from data. In the discrete-time setting, we further derive a relaxed objective function that is differentiable and numerically well-conditioned. We compare our method against state-of-the-art approaches on different datasets, showing better performance across the board.

Multispectral fusion object detection is a critical task for edge-based maritime surveillance and remote sensing, demanding both high inference efficiency and robust feature representation for high-resolution inputs. However, current State Space Models (SSMs) like Mamba suffer from significant parameter redundancy in their standard 2D Selective Scan (SS2D) blocks, which hinders deployment on resource-constrained hardware and leads to the loss of fine-grained structural information during conventional compression. To address these challenges, we propose the Low-Rank Two-Dimensional Selective Structured State Space Model (Low-Rank SS2D), which reformulates state transitions via matrix factorization to exploit intrinsic feature sparsity. Furthermore, we introduce a Structure-Aware Distillation strategy that aligns the internal latent state dynamics of the student with a full-rank teacher model to compensate for potential representation degradation. This approach substantially reduces computational complexity and memory footprint while preserving the high-fidelity spatial modeling required for object recognition. Extensive experiments on five benchmark datasets and real-world edge platforms, such as Raspberry Pi 5, demonstrate that our method achieves a superior efficiency-accuracy trade-off, significantly outperforming existing lightweight architectures in practical deployment scenarios.

Single-stream architectures using Vision Transformer (ViT) backbones show great potential for real-time UAV tracking recently. However, frequent occlusions from obstacles like buildings and trees expose a major drawback: these models often lack strategies to handle occlusions effectively. New methods are needed to enhance the occlusion resilience of single-stream ViT models in aerial tracking. In this work, we propose to learn Occlusion-Robust Representations (ORR) based on ViTs for UAV tracking by enforcing an invariance of the feature representation of a target with respect to random masking operations modeled by a spatial Cox process. Hopefully, this random masking approximately simulates target occlusions, thereby enabling us to learn ViTs that are robust to target occlusion for UAV tracking. This framework is termed ORTrack. Additionally, to facilitate real-time applications, we propose an Adaptive Feature-Based Knowledge Distillation (AFKD) method to create a more compact tracker, which adaptively mimics the behavior of the teacher model ORTrack according to the task's difficulty. This student model, dubbed ORTrack-D, retains much of ORTrack's performance while offering higher efficiency. Extensive experiments on multiple benchmarks validate the effectiveness of our method, demonstrating its state-of-the-art performance. Codes is available at https://github.com/wuyou3474/ORTrack.

Past analyses of reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) assume that the human fully observes the environment. What happens when human feedback is based only on partial observations? We formally define two failure cases: deception and overjustification. Modeling the human as Boltzmann-rational w.r.t. a belief over trajectories, we prove conditions under which RLHF is guaranteed to result in policies that deceptively inflate their performance, overjustify their behavior to make an impression, or both. To help address these issues, we mathematically characterize how partial observability of the environment translates into (lack of) ambiguity in the learned return function. In some cases, accounting for partial observability makes it theoretically possible to recover the return function and thus the optimal policy, while in other cases, there is irreducible ambiguity. We caution against blindly applying RLHF in partially observable settings and propose research directions to help tackle these challenges.

The Kalman filter has been adopted in acoustic echo cancellation due to its robustness to double-talk, fast convergence, and good steady-state performance. The performance of Kalman filter is closely related to the estimation accuracy of the state noise covariance and the observation noise covariance. The estimation error may lead to unacceptable results, especially when the echo path suffers abrupt changes, the tracking performance of the Kalman filter could be degraded significantly. In this paper, we propose the neural Kalman filtering (NKF), which uses neural networks to implicitly model the covariance of the state noise and observation noise and to output the Kalman gain in real-time. Experimental results on both synthetic test sets and real-recorded test sets show that, the proposed NKF has superior convergence and re-convergence performance while ensuring low near-end speech degradation comparing with the state-of-the-art model-based methods. Moreover, the model size of the proposed NKF is merely 5.3 K and the RTF is as low as 0.09, which indicates that it can be deployed in low-resource platforms.

We present a novel framework for motion forecasting with Dual Consistency Constraints and Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. The motion forecasting task predicts future trajectories of vehicles by incorporating spatial and temporal information from the past. A key design of DCMS is the proposed Dual Consistency Constraints that regularize the predicted trajectories under spatial and temporal perturbation during the training stage. In addition, we design a novel self-ensembling scheme to obtain accurate pseudo targets to model the multi-modality in motion forecasting through supervision with multiple targets explicitly, namely Multi-Pseudo-Target supervision. Our experimental results on the Argoverse motion forecasting benchmark show that DCMS significantly outperforms the state-of-the-art methods, achieving 1st place on the leaderboard. We also demonstrate that our proposed strategies can be incorporated into other motion forecasting approaches as general training schemes.

User simulators are essential to conversational AI, enabling scalable agent development and evaluation through simulated interactions. While current Large Language Models (LLMs) have advanced user simulation capabilities, we reveal that they struggle to consistently demonstrate goal-oriented behavior across multi-turn conversations--a critical limitation that compromises their reliability in downstream applications. We introduce User Goal State Tracking (UGST), a novel framework that tracks user goal progression throughout conversations. Leveraging UGST, we present a three-stage methodology for developing user simulators that can autonomously track goal progression and reason to generate goal-aligned responses. Moreover, we establish comprehensive evaluation metrics for measuring goal alignment in user simulators, and demonstrate that our approach yields substantial improvements across two benchmarks (MultiWOZ 2.4 and {\tau}-Bench). Our contributions address a critical gap in conversational AI and establish UGST as an essential framework for developing goal-aligned user simulators.

Large-scale traffic forecasting relies on fixed sensor networks that often exhibit blackouts: contiguous intervals of missing measurements caused by detector or communication failures. These outages are typically handled under a Missing At Random (MAR) assumption, even though blackout events may correlate with unobserved traffic conditions (e.g., congestion or anomalous flow), motivating a Missing Not At Random (MNAR) treatment. We propose a latent state-space framework that jointly models (i) traffic dynamics via a linear dynamical system and (ii) sensor dropout via a Bernoulli observation channel whose probability depends on the latent traffic state. Inference uses an Extended Kalman Filter with Rauch-Tung-Striebel smoothing, and parameters are learned via an approximate EM procedure with a dedicated update for detector-specific missingness parameters. On the Seattle inductive loop detector data, introducing latent dynamics yields large gains over naive baselines, reducing blackout imputation RMSE from 7.02 (LOCF) and 5.02 (linear interpolation + seasonal naive) to 4.23 (MAR LDS), corresponding to about a 64% reduction in MSE relative to LOCF. Explicit MNAR modeling provides a consistent but smaller additional improvement on real data (imputation RMSE 4.20; 0.8% RMSE reduction relative to MAR), with similar modest gains for short-horizon post-blackout forecasts (evaluated at 1, 3, and 6 steps). In controlled synthetic experiments, the MNAR advantage increases as the true missingness dependence on latent state strengthens. Overall, temporal dynamics dominate performance, while MNAR modeling offers a principled refinement that becomes most valuable when missingness is genuinely informative.

In-context learning, the ability of large language models to perform tasks using only examples provided in the prompt, has recently been adapted for time series forecasting. This paradigm enables zero-shot prediction, where past values serve as context for forecasting future values, making powerful forecasting tools accessible to non-experts and increasing the performance when training data are scarce. Most existing zero-shot forecasting approaches rely on transformer architectures, which, despite their success in language, often fall short of expectations in time series forecasting, where recurrent models like LSTMs frequently have the edge. Conversely, while LSTMs are well-suited for time series modeling due to their state-tracking capabilities, they lack strong in-context learning abilities. We introduce TiRex that closes this gap by leveraging xLSTM, an enhanced LSTM with competitive in-context learning skills. Unlike transformers, state-space models, or parallelizable RNNs such as RWKV, TiRex retains state-tracking, a critical property for long-horizon forecasting. To further facilitate its state-tracking ability, we propose a training-time masking strategy called CPM. TiRex sets a new state of the art in zero-shot time series forecasting on the HuggingFace benchmarks GiftEval and Chronos-ZS, outperforming significantly larger models including TabPFN-TS (Prior Labs), Chronos Bolt (Amazon), TimesFM (Google), and Moirai (Salesforce) across both short- and long-term forecasts.

The Variational Autoencoder (VAE) is a seminal approach in deep generative modeling with latent variables. Interpreting its reconstruction process as a nonlinear transformation of samples from the latent posterior distribution, we apply the Unscented Transform (UT) -- a well-known distribution approximation used in the Unscented Kalman Filter (UKF) from the field of filtering. A finite set of statistics called sigma points, sampled deterministically, provides a more informative and lower-variance posterior representation than the ubiquitous noise-scaling of the reparameterization trick, while ensuring higher-quality reconstruction. We further boost the performance by replacing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence with the Wasserstein distribution metric that allows for a sharper posterior. Inspired by the two components, we derive a novel, deterministic-sampling flavor of the VAE, the Unscented Autoencoder (UAE), trained purely with regularization-like terms on the per-sample posterior. We empirically show competitive performance in Fr\'echet Inception Distance (FID) scores over closely-related models, in addition to a lower training variance than the VAE.

The global positioning system (GPS) has become an indispensable navigation method for field operations with unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) in marine environments. However, GPS may not always be available outdoors because it is vulnerable to natural interference and malicious jamming attacks. Thus, an alternative navigation system is required when the use of GPS is restricted or prohibited. To this end, we present a novel method that utilizes an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) to assist in localizing USVs in GNSS-restricted marine environments. In our approach, the UAV flies along the shoreline at a consistent altitude, continuously tracking and detecting the USV using a deep learning-based approach on camera images. Subsequently, triangulation techniques are applied to estimate the USV's position relative to the UAV, utilizing geometric information and datalink range from the UAV. We propose adjusting the UAV's camera angle based on the pixel error between the USV and the image center throughout the localization process to enhance accuracy. Additionally, visual measurements are integrated into an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) for robust state estimation. To validate our proposed method, we utilize a USV equipped with onboard sensors and a UAV equipped with a camera. A heterogeneous robotic interface is established to facilitate communication between the USV and UAV. We demonstrate the efficacy of our approach through a series of experiments conducted during the ``Muhammad Bin Zayed International Robotic Challenge (MBZIRC-2024)'' in real marine environments, incorporating noisy measurements and ocean disturbances. The successful outcomes indicate the potential of our method to complement GPS for USV navigation.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) methodologies enforce constraints on the policy to adhere closely to the behavior policy, thereby stabilizing value learning and mitigating the selection of out-of-distribution (OOD) actions during test time. Conventional approaches apply identical constraints for both value learning and test time inference. However, our findings indicate that the constraints suitable for value estimation may in fact be excessively restrictive for action selection during test time. To address this issue, we propose a Mildly Constrained Evaluation Policy (MCEP) for test time inference with a more constrained target policy for value estimation. Since the target policy has been adopted in various prior approaches, MCEP can be seamlessly integrated with them as a plug-in. We instantiate MCEP based on TD3-BC [Fujimoto and Gu, 2021] and AWAC [Nair et al., 2020] algorithms. The empirical results on MuJoCo locomotion tasks show that the MCEP significantly outperforms the target policy and achieves competitive results to state-of-the-art offline RL methods. The codes are open-sourced at https://github.com/egg-west/MCEP.git.

Estimating robot pose from RGB images is a crucial problem in computer vision and robotics. While previous methods have achieved promising performance, most of them presume full knowledge of robot internal states, e.g. ground-truth robot joint angles. However, this assumption is not always valid in practical situations. In real-world applications such as multi-robot collaboration or human-robot interaction, the robot joint states might not be shared or could be unreliable. On the other hand, existing approaches that estimate robot pose without joint state priors suffer from heavy computation burdens and thus cannot support real-time applications. This work introduces an efficient framework for real-time robot pose estimation from RGB images without requiring known robot states. Our method estimates camera-to-robot rotation, robot state parameters, keypoint locations, and root depth, employing a neural network module for each task to facilitate learning and sim-to-real transfer. Notably, it achieves inference in a single feed-forward pass without iterative optimization. Our approach offers a 12-time speed increase with state-of-the-art accuracy, enabling real-time holistic robot pose estimation for the first time. Code and models are available at https://github.com/Oliverbansk/Holistic-Robot-Pose-Estimation.

Real-world objects frequently undergo state transformations. From an apple being cut into pieces to a butterfly emerging from its cocoon, tracking through these changes is important for understanding real-world objects and dynamics. However, existing methods often lose track of the target object after transformation, due to significant changes in object appearance. To address this limitation, we introduce the task of Track Any State: tracking objects through transformations while detecting and describing state changes, accompanied by a new benchmark dataset, VOST-TAS. To tackle this problem, we present TubeletGraph, a zero-shot system that recovers missing objects after transformation and maps out how object states are evolving over time. TubeletGraph first identifies potentially overlooked tracks, and determines whether they should be integrated based on semantic and proximity priors. Then, it reasons about the added tracks and generates a state graph describing each observed transformation. TubeletGraph achieves state-of-the-art tracking performance under transformations, while demonstrating deeper understanding of object transformations and promising capabilities in temporal grounding and semantic reasoning for complex object transformations. Code, additional results, and the benchmark dataset are available at https://tubelet-graph.github.io.

Transformer-based models generate hidden states that are difficult to interpret. In this work, we analyze hidden states and modify them at inference, with a focus on motion forecasting. We use linear probing to analyze whether interpretable features are embedded in hidden states. Our experiments reveal high probing accuracy, indicating latent space regularities with functionally important directions. Building on this, we use the directions between hidden states with opposing features to fit control vectors. At inference, we add our control vectors to hidden states and evaluate their impact on predictions. Remarkably, such modifications preserve the feasibility of predictions. We further refine our control vectors using sparse autoencoders (SAEs). This leads to more linear changes in predictions when scaling control vectors. Our approach enables mechanistic interpretation as well as zero-shot generalization to unseen dataset characteristics with negligible computational overhead.

Infrared small target detection (IRSTD) aims to identify long distance small targets from complex infrared backgrounds, and is a fundamental task in remote sensing. Deep learning methods have improved IRSTD by learning discriminative image-to-mask mappings, but such feed-forward designs often underuse physical decomposition structure between targets and backgrounds. Deep unfolding methods partially address this issue by embedding model-driven iterations into neural networks, yet existing designs still operate mainly in image domain and use updates and memory mechanisms that are not fully coupled with underlying optimization process. To address these limitations, we propose Latent Consistent Proximal unfolding network (LCPNet). First, we verify that low-rank prior remains valid in latent representations and perform unfolding in this space, preserving physical constraint while avoiding repeated compression of intermediate states. Second, we derive a Latent Consistent Proximal (LCP) solver that evolves each latent variable from its previous state rather than reconstructing through an indirect residual, and stabilizes small target updates through task-adaptive normalization and gain control. Third, we introduce Shared Optimization Memory (SOM), a common historical state shared by all decomposition variables to provide coordinated guidance across unfolding stages. Extensive experiments on four public benchmarks demonstrate that LCPNet outperforms state-of-the-art methods while achieving accurate and robust detection with low false alarms and competitive efficiency. Model and code are available at https://github.com/Tianfang-Zhang/LCPNet.

Model-based reinforcement learning (MBRL) has been shown to be a powerful framework for data-efficiently learning control of continuous tasks. Recent work in MBRL has mostly focused on using more advanced function approximators and planning schemes, with little development of the general framework. In this paper, we identify a fundamental issue of the standard MBRL framework -- what we call the objective mismatch issue. Objective mismatch arises when one objective is optimized in the hope that a second, often uncorrelated, metric will also be optimized. In the context of MBRL, we characterize the objective mismatch between training the forward dynamics model w.r.t.~the likelihood of the one-step ahead prediction, and the overall goal of improving performance on a downstream control task. For example, this issue can emerge with the realization that dynamics models effective for a specific task do not necessarily need to be globally accurate, and vice versa globally accurate models might not be sufficiently accurate locally to obtain good control performance on a specific task. In our experiments, we study this objective mismatch issue and demonstrate that the likelihood of one-step ahead predictions is not always correlated with control performance. This observation highlights a critical limitation in the MBRL framework which will require further research to be fully understood and addressed. We propose an initial method to mitigate the mismatch issue by re-weighting dynamics model training. Building on it, we conclude with a discussion about other potential directions of research for addressing this issue.

We introduce Adaptive Filter Attention (AFA), a novel attention mechanism that incorporates a learnable dynamics model directly into the computation of attention weights. Rather than comparing queries and keys directly, we model the input sequence as discrete observations of a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE). By imposing a linear dynamics model with simultaneously diagonalizable state matrices and noise covariances, we can make use of a closed-form solution to the differential Lyapunov equation to efficiently propagate pairwise uncertainties through the dynamics. Attention naturally arises as the maximum likelihood solution for this linear SDE, with attention weights corresponding to robust residual-based reweightings of the propagated pairwise precisions. Imposing an additional constraint on the state matrix's eigenvalues leads to a simplified variant with the same computational and memory complexity as standard attention. In the limit of vanishing dynamics and process noise, and using a small-angle approximation, we recover ordinary dot-product attention.