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Daily Papers

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Aug 7

Self Consistent Thermal Resummation: A Case Study of the Phase Transition in 2HDM

An accurate description of the scalar potential at finite temperature is crucial for studying cosmological first-order phase transitions (FOPT) in the early Universe. At finite temperatures, a precise treatment of thermal resummations is essential, as bosonic fields encounter significant infrared issues that can compromise standard perturbative approaches. The Partial Dressing (or the tadpole resummation) method provides a self consistent resummation of higher order corrections, allowing the computation of thermal masses and the effective potential including the proper Boltzmann suppression factors and without relying on any high-temperature approximation. We systematically compare the Partial dressing resummation scheme results with the Parwani and Arnold Espinosa (AE) ones to investigate the thermal phase transition dynamics in the Two-Higgs-Doublet Model (2HDM). Our findings reveal that different resummation prescriptions can significantly alter the nature of the phase transition within the same region of parameter space, confirming the differences that have already been noticed between the Parwani and AE schemes. Notably, the more refined resummation prescription, the Partial Dressing scheme, does not support symmetry non-restoration in 2HDM at high temperatures observed using the AE prescription. Furthermore, we quantify the uncertainties in the stochastic gravitational wave (GW) spectrum from an FOPT due to variations in resummation methods, illustrating their role in shaping theoretical predictions for upcoming GW experiments. Finally, we discuss the capability of the High-Luminosity LHC and proposed GW experiments to probe the FOEWPT-favored region of the parameter space.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 2, 2025

Fusion-DeepONet: A Data-Efficient Neural Operator for Geometry-Dependent Hypersonic and Supersonic Flows

Shape optimization is essential in aerospace vehicle design, including reentry systems, and propulsion system components, as it directly influences aerodynamic efficiency, structural integrity, and overall mission success. Rapid and accurate prediction of external and internal flows accelerates design iterations. To this end, we develop a new variant of DeepONet, called Fusion-DeepONet as a fast surrogate model for geometry-dependent hypersonic and supersonic flow fields. We evaluated Fusion-DeepONet in learning two external hypersonic flows and a supersonic shape-dependent internal flow problem. First, we compare the performance of Fusion-DeepONet with state-of-the-art neural operators to learn inviscid hypersonic flow around semi-elliptic blunt bodies for two grid types: uniform Cartesian and irregular grids. Fusion-DeepONet provides comparable accuracy to parameter-conditioned U-Net on uniform grids while outperforming MeshGraphNet and Vanilla-DeepONet on irregular grids. Fusion-DeepONet requires significantly fewer trainable parameters than U-Net, MeshGraphNet, and FNO. For the second hypersonic problem, we set up Fusion-DeepONet to map from geometry and free stream Mach number to the temperature field around a reentry capsule traveling at hypersonic speed. This fast surrogate is then improved to predict the spatial derivative of the temperature, resulting in an accurate prediction of heat flux at the surfaces of the capsule. To enhance the accuracy of spatial derivative prediction, we introduce a derivative-enhanced loss term with the least computation overhead. For the third problem, we show that Fusion-DeepONet outperforms MeshGraphNet in learning geometry-dependent supersonic flow in a converging-diverging nozzle configuration. For all the problems, we used high-fidelity simulations with a high-order entropy-stable DGSEM solver to generate training datasets with limited samples.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 3, 2025

An error indicator-based adaptive reduced order model for nonlinear structural mechanics -- application to high-pressure turbine blades

The industrial application motivating this work is the fatigue computation of aircraft engines' high-pressure turbine blades. The material model involves nonlinear elastoviscoplastic behavior laws, for which the parameters depend on the temperature. For this application, the temperature loading is not accurately known and can reach values relatively close to the creep temperature: important nonlinear effects occur and the solution strongly depends on the used thermal loading. We consider a nonlinear reduced order model able to compute, in the exploitation phase, the behavior of the blade for a new temperature field loading. The sensitivity of the solution to the temperature makes {the classical unenriched proper orthogonal decomposition method} fail. In this work, we propose a new error indicator, quantifying the error made by the reduced order model in computational complexity independent of the size of the high-fidelity reference model. In our framework, when the {error indicator} becomes larger than a given tolerance, the reduced order model is updated using one time step solution of the high-fidelity reference model. The approach is illustrated on a series of academic test cases and applied on a setting of industrial complexity involving 5 million degrees of freedom, where the whole procedure is computed in parallel with distributed memory.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 19, 2019

First Order Quantum Phase Transition in the Hybrid Metal-Mott Insulator Transition Metal Dichalcogenide 4Hb-TaS2

Coupling together distinct correlated and topologically non-trivial electronic phases of matter can potentially induce novel electronic orders and phase transitions among them. Transition metal dichalcogenide compounds serve as a bedrock for exploration of such hybrid systems. They host a variety of exotic electronic phases and their Van der Waals nature enables to admix them, either by exfoliation and stacking or by stoichiometric growth, and thereby induce novel correlated complexes. Here we investigate the compound 4Hb-TaS_2 that interleaves the Mott-insulating state of 1T-TaS_2 and the putative spin liquid it hosts together with the metallic state of 2H-TaS_2 and the low temperature superconducting phase it harbors. We reveal a thermodynamic phase diagram that hosts a first order quantum phase transition between a correlated Kondo cluster state and a flat band state in which the Kondo cluster becomes depleted. We demonstrate that this intrinsic transition can be induced by an electric field and temperature as well as by manipulation of the interlayer coupling with the probe tip, hence allowing to reversibly toggle between the Kondo cluster and the flat band states. The phase transition is manifested by a discontinuous change of the complete electronic spectrum accompanied by hysteresis and low frequency noise. We find that the shape of the transition line in the phase diagram is determined by the local compressibility and the entropy of the two electronic states. Our findings set such heterogeneous structures as an exciting platform for systematic investigation and manipulation of Mott-metal transitions and strongly correlated phases and quantum phase transitions therein.

  • 11 authors
·
Mar 2, 2023

ThousandWorlds: A benchmark for climate emulation of potentially habitable exoplanets

The search for life beyond Earth will depend on detecting faint signatures in the atmospheres of potentially habitable exoplanets. Interpreting those signatures requires understanding the host planet's climate: the same molecule may signal life on one planet and abiotic chemistry on another. Global climate models (GCMs) provide this understanding, but individual runs can require up to millions of core-hours and substantial domain expert time. Machine-learning emulators could remove this bottleneck, but progress has been limited by the absence of a curated, multi-model exoclimate dataset. We introduce ThousandWorlds, an ML-ready benchmark for exoclimate emulation and for the broader regime of low-data, multi-simulator, parameter-to-field regression. The dataset contains approximately 1800 simulations from five GCMs, mapping eight planet parameters to 3D atmospheric fields including temperature, humidity, winds, clouds, and radiation. Three nested subsets define progressively harder challenges: single-simulator regression, multi-simulator regression with complete observations, and multi-simulator regression with structured missingness. We propose two evaluation protocols: one for ranking methods, and one that measures performance relative to the disagreement between GCMs themselves. We evaluate seven baselines spanning simple methods, deep learning, and Gaussian processes. GP-based methods perform best, suggesting that ThousandWorlds exposes a regime where off-the-shelf deep learning does not yet succeed. Data: https://doi.org/10.57967/hf/8695. Code: https://github.com/edstevenson/ThousandWorlds.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 15

Reconstructions of electron-temperature profiles from EUROfusion Pedestal Database using turbulence models and machine learning

This study uses plasma-profile data from the EUROfusion pedestal database, focusing on the electron-temperature and electron-density profiles in the edge region of H-mode ELMy JET ITER-Like-Wall (ILW) pulses. We make systematic predictions of the electron-temperature pedestal, using the density profiles and engineering parameters of the pulses as inputs. We first present a machine-learning algorithm that, given more inputs than theory-based modelling and 80\% of the database as training data, can reconstruct the remaining 20\% of temperature profiles within 20\% of the experimental values, including accurate estimates of the pedestal width and location. The most important engineering parameters for these predictions are magnetic field strength, particle fuelling rate, plasma current, and strike-point configuration. This confirms the potential of accurate pedestal prediction using large databases. Next, we take a simple theoretical approach assuming a local power-law relationship between the gradients of density (R/L_{n_e}) and temperature (R/L_{T_e}): R/L_{T_e}=Aleft(R/L_{n_e}right)^α with αapprox 0.4 fits well in the steep-gradient region. When A and α are fit independently for each pedestal, a one-to-one correlation emerges, also valid for JET-C data. For α= 1, A equiv η_e, a known control parameter for turbulence in slab-ETG theory. Measured values of η_e in the steep-gradient region lie well above the slab-ETG stability threshold, suggesting a nonlinear threshold shift or a supercritical turbulent state. Finally, we test heat-flux scalings motivated by gyrokinetic simulations, and we provide best-fit parameters for reconstructing JET-ILW pedestals. These models require additional experimental inputs to reach the accuracy of the machine-learning reconstructions.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 24, 2025

CMB signature of a super-Hubble inhomogeneity in the gravitational field enclosing the present Hubble volume

Repeated studies of the CMB based on WMAP data have revealed an apparent asymmetry in the distribution of temperature fluctuations over the celestial sphere. The studies indicate that the amplitudes of temperature fluctuations are higher in one hemisphere than in the other. We consider whether this asymmetry could originate from a large scale inhomogeneity in the gravitational field enclosing the present Hubble volume. We examine what effect the presence of an inhomogeneity in the gravitational field of size larger than the present Hubble radius would have on the temperature distribution of the CMB and start eliciting its observational signature in the CMB power spectrum. The covariance function contains, in addition to the diagonal entries of the conventional CMB temperature anisostropy power spectrum, non-diagonal entries. We find that specific non-diagonal entries of the covariance function are sensitive to the strength of the inhomogeneity, while the diagonal entries are not. These non-diagonal entries, which are not present in the case of a homogeneous background geometry, are observational signatures of a large-scale inhomogeneity in the background geometry of the universe. Furthermore, we find that an inhomogeneity in the gravitational potential of super-Hubble size would yield a power asymmetry in the CMB with maximal asymmetry at an angle of 90 degrees to the CMB dipole axis. The axis of the CMB power asymmetry was recently estimated by Eriksen et. al. to be located at angles between 83 and 96 degrees to the CMB dipole axis, which is consistent with the prediction of our model. This implies that the location of the observed power asymmetry in the CMB sky could be accounted for by a large-scale inhomogeneity in the gravitational field enclosing the present Hubble volume.

  • 1 authors
·
Jan 4, 2010

High-Fidelity Quantum Information Transmission Using a Room-Temperature Nonrefrigerated Lossy Microwave Waveguide

Quantum microwave transmission is key to realizing modular superconducting quantum computers and distributed quantum networks. A large number of incoherent photons are thermally generated within the microwave frequency spectrum. The closeness of the transmitted quantum state to the source-generated quantum state at the input of the transmission link (measured by the transmission fidelity) degrades due to the presence of the incoherent photons. Hence, high-fidelity quantum microwave transmission has long been considered to be infeasible without refrigeration [3,4]. In this study, we propose a novel method for high-fidelity quantum microwave transmission using a room-temperature lossy waveguide. The proposed scheme consists of connecting two cryogenic nodes (i.e., a transmitter and a receiver) by the room-temperature lossy microwave waveguide. First, cryogenic preamplification is implemented prior to transmission. Second, at the receiver side, a cryogenic loop antenna is placed inside the output port of the waveguide and coupled to an LC harmonic oscillator located outside the waveguide. The loop antenna converts quantum microwave fields (which contain both signal and noise photons) to a quantum voltage across the coupled LC harmonic oscillator. The loop antenna detector at the receiver is designed to extensively suppress the induced photons across the LC oscillator. The signal transmittance is maintained intact by providing significant preamplification gain. Our calculations show that high-fidelity quantum transmission (i.e., more than 95%) is realized based on the proposed scheme for transmission distances reaching 100 m.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 2, 2022

Composite stacks for reliable > 17 T trapped fields in bulk superconductor magnets

Trapped fields of over 20 T are, in principle, achievable in bulk, single-grain high temperature cuprate superconductors. The principle barriers to realizing such performance are, firstly, the large tensile stresses that develop during the magnetization of such trapped-field magnets as a result of the Lorentz force, which lead to brittle fracture of these ceramic-like materials at high fields and, secondly, catastrophic thermal instabilities as a result of flux movement during magnetization. Moreover, for a batch of samples nominally fabricated identically, the statistical nature of the failure mechanism means the best performance (i.e. trapped fields of over 17 T) cannot be attained reliably. The magnetization process, particularly to higher fields, also often damages the samples such that they cannot repeatedly trap high fields following subsequent magnetization. In this study, we report the sequential trapping of magnetic fields of ~ 17 T, achieving 16.8 T at 26 K initially and 17.6 T at 22.5 K subsequently, in a stack of two Ag-doped GdBa2Cu3O7-δ bulk superconductor composites of diameter 24 mm reinforced with (1) stainless-steel laminations, and (2) shrink-fit stainless steel rings. A trapped field of 17.6 T is, in fact, comparable with the highest trapped fields reported to date for bulk superconducting magnets of any mechanical and chemical composition, and this was achieved using the first composite stack to be fabricated by this technique.

  • 13 authors
·
Aug 22, 2019

FLARE: A Data-Efficient Surrogate for Predicting Displacement Fields in Directed Energy Deposition

Directed energy deposition (DED) produces complex thermo-mechanical responses that can lead to distortion and reduced dimensional accuracy of a manufactured part. Thermo-mechanical finite element simulations are widely used to estimate these effects, but their computational cost and the complexity of accurately capturing DED physics limit their use in design iteration and process optimization. This paper introduces FLARE (Field Prediction via Linear Affine Reconstruction in wEight-space), a data-efficient surrogate modeling framework for predicting post-cooling displacement fields in DED from geometric and process parameters. We develop a predefined-geometry DED simulation workflow using an open-source finite element framework and generate a dataset of simulations with varying geometry, laser power, and deposition velocity. Each simulation provides full-field displacement, stress, strain, and temperature data throughout the manufacturing process. FLARE encodes each simulation as an implicit neural field and regularizes the corresponding neural-network weights so that they follow the affine structure of the input parameter space. This enables prediction of unseen parameter combinations by reconstructing network weights through affine mixing of training examples. On this DED benchmark, the method shows improved accuracy compared to baseline methods in both in-distribution and extrapolation settings. Although the present study focuses on DED displacement prediction, the proposed affine weight-space reconstruction framework offers a promising approach for data-efficient surrogate modeling of physical fields.

  • 8 authors
·
Apr 17

Matters Arising from S. Vaitiekenas et al., "Zero-bias peaks at zero magnetic field in ferromagnetic hybrid nanowires" Nature Physics 2021

In 2021 Nature Physics published a paper by Vaitiekenas, Liu, Krogstrup and Marcus titled "Zero-bias peaks at zero magnetic field in ferromagnetic hybrid nanowires". The paper reports low temperature transport measurements on semiconductor InAs nanowires with two partly overlapping shells -- a shell of EuS, a magnetic insulator, and a shell of Al, a metal that becomes superconducting at temperatures below 1.2K. The paper claims that (1) the data are consistent with induced topological superconductivity and Majorana zero modes (MZMs), and (2) that this is facilitated by the breaking of the time reversal symmetry through a direct magnetic interaction with the EuS shell. In this Matters Arising, we present an alternative explanation which is based on trivial effects that are likely to appear in the reported geometry. Specifically, first, we find that data the authors present in support of the topological superconductivity claim can originate from unintended quantum dots in their devices, a widely known likely explanation that is not being discussed in the paper. Second, our analysis of the setup, supported by our numerical micromagnetic simulations, shows similar effects could be obtained due to stray magnetic fields from the region of the EuS shell damaged during Al etching. This basic picture should come before the exotic interpretation in terms of magnetic exchange interaction with a ferromagnetic insulator.

  • 6 authors
·
Jan 7, 2025

Superpositions of thermalisations in relativistic quantum field theory

Recent results in relativistic quantum information and quantum thermodynamics have independently shown that in the quantum regime, a system may fail to thermalise when subject to quantum-controlled application of the same, single thermalisation channel. For example, an accelerating system with fixed proper acceleration is known to thermalise to an acceleration-dependent temperature, known as the Unruh temperature. However, the same system in a superposition of spatially translated trajectories that share the same proper acceleration fails to thermalise. Here, we provide an explanation of these results using the framework of quantum field theory in relativistic noninertial reference frames. We show how a probe that accelerates in a superposition of spatial translations interacts with incommensurate sets of field modes. In special cases where the modes are orthogonal (for example, when the Rindler wedges are translated in a direction orthogonal to the plane of motion), thermalisation does indeed result, corroborating the here provided explanation. We then discuss how this description relates to an information-theoretic approach aimed at studying quantum aspects of temperature through quantum-controlled thermalisations. The present work draws a connection between research in quantum information, relativistic physics, and quantum thermodynamics, in particular showing that relativistic quantum effects can provide a natural realisation of quantum thermodynamical scenarios.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

Combining Electron-Phonon and Dynamical Mean-Field Theory Calculations of Correlated Materials: Transport in the Correlated Metal Sr$_2$RuO$_4$

Electron-electron (e-e) and electron-phonon (e-ph) interactions are challenging to describe in correlated materials, where their joint effects govern unconventional transport, phase transitions, and superconductivity. Here we combine first-principles e-ph calculations with dynamical mean field theory (DMFT) as a step toward a unified description of e-e and e-ph interactions in correlated materials. We compute the e-ph self-energy using the DMFT electron Green's function, and combine it with the e-e self-energy from DMFT to obtain a Green's function including both interactions. This approach captures the renormalization of quasiparticle dispersion and spectral weight on equal footing. Using our method, we study the e-ph and e-e contributions to the resistivity and spectral functions in the correlated metal Sr_2RuO_4. In this material, our results show that e-e interactions dominate transport and spectral broadening in the temperature range we study (50-310~K), while e-ph interactions are relatively weak and account for only sim10\% of the experimental resistivity. We also compute effective scattering rates, and find that the e-e interactions result in scattering several times greater than the Planckian value k_BT, whereas e-ph interactions are associated with scattering rates lower than k_BT. Our work demonstrates a first-principles approach to combine electron dynamical correlations from DMFT with e-ph interactions in a consistent way, advancing quantitative studies of correlated materials.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 13, 2023

Interplay between thermal and compositional gradients decides the microstructure during thermomigration: a phase-field study

The presence of thermal gradients in alloys often leads to non-uniformity in concentration profiles, which can induce the thermomigration of microstructural features such as precipitates. To investigate such microstructural changes, we present a phase-field model that incorporates coupling between concentration and thermal gradients. First, we simulated the evolution of non-uniform concentration profiles in the single-phase regions of Fe-C and Fe-N alloy systems due to imposed thermal gradients. To validate our model with the classical experiments performed by Darken and Oriani, we studied the evolution of spatially varying concentration profiles where thermal gradients encompass single-phase and two-phase regions. We developed a parameterized thermodynamic description of the two-phase region of a binary alloy to systematically study the effect of interactions between chemically-driven and thermal gradient-driven diffusion of solute on the evolution of precipitates. Our simulations show how thermal gradient, precipitate size, and interparticle distance influence the migration and associated morphological changes of precipitates. The composition profiles and migration rates obtained from single-particle simulations show an exact match with our analytical model. We use twoparticle simulations to show conditions under which thermomigration induces the growth of the smaller particle and shrinkage of the larger one in contrast to the isothermal Ostwald ripening behavior. Our multiparticle simulations show similar behavior during coarsening. Moreover, in the presence of a thermal gradient, there is a shift in the center of mass of the precipitates towards the high-temperature region. Thus, our study offers new insights into the phenomena of microstructure evolution in the presence of thermal gradient.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 2, 2024

TeX-1500: A Paired Real-World LWIR Hyperspectral Dataset and Benchmark for Temperature-Emissivity-Texture Decomposition

Temperature-emissivity-texture (TeX) decomposition seeks to recover object heat state, material spectral response, and visible-like geometric texture from long-wave infrared hyperspectral imaging (LWIR HSI). Existing TeX pipelines are mainly scene-specific inverse solvers, and the lack of paired LWIR HSI-TeX supervision has limited learning-based decomposition. To address this gap, we introduce TeX-1500, a large-scale paired LWIR HSI-TeX dataset and benchmark for supervised HSI-to-TeX decomposition. TeX-1500 contains 1,522 calibrated real-scene pairs from DARPA Invisible Headlights (DARPA IH) pushbroom imagery and our FTIR acquisitions, covering five locations, four seasons, diverse acquisition times, heterogeneous wavelength layouts, and two sensor families. Each sample stores a calibrated valid-band radiance cube, calibrated wavelength positions, and aligned temperature, emissivity, and texture supervision constructed through a consistent restoration and TeX-construction protocol. We further provide TeX-UNet, a simple wavelength-aware baseline that maps calibrated HSI bands and wavelength positions to TeX fields. Experiments on the held-out DARPA IH pushbroom scenes and zero-/few-shot transfer to FTIR scenes show that TeX-1500 provides usable paired supervision and a measurable benchmark for data-driven physical-property-centered thermal perception.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 1

Standardized Benchmark Dataset for Localized Exposure to a Realistic Source at 10$-$90 GHz

The lack of freely available standardized datasets represents an aggravating factor during the development and testing the performance of novel computational techniques in exposure assessment and dosimetry research. This hinders progress as researchers are required to generate numerical data (field, power and temperature distribution) anew using simulation software for each exposure scenario. Other than being time consuming, this approach is highly susceptible to errors that occur during the configuration of the electromagnetic model. To address this issue, in this paper, the limited available data on the incident power density and resultant maximum temperature rise on the skin surface considering various steady-state exposure scenarios at 10-90 GHz have been statistically modeled. The synthetic data have been sampled from the fitted statistical multivariate distribution with respect to predetermined dosimetric constraints. We thus present a comprehensive and open-source dataset compiled of the high-fidelity numerical data considering various exposures to a realistic source. Furthermore, different surrogate models for predicting maximum temperature rise on the skin surface were fitted based on the synthetic dataset. All surrogate models were tested on the originally available data where satisfactory predictive performance has been demonstrated. A simple technique of combining quadratic polynomial and tensor-product spline surrogates, each operating on its own cluster of data, has achieved the lowest mean absolute error of 0.058 {\deg}C. Therefore, overall experimental results indicate the validity of the proposed synthetic dataset.

  • 3 authors
·
May 3, 2023

Influence of pressure on properties of multi-gap type-I superconductor BeAu

We report on studies of the superconducting and normal state properties of the noncentrosymmetric superconductor BeAu under hydrostatic pressure conditions. The room-temperature equation of state (EOS) reveals the values of the bulk modulus (B_0) and its first derivative (B^prime_0) at ambient pressure to be B_0 simeq 132~GPa and B^prime_0 simeq 30, respectively. Up to the highest pressures studied (p simeq 2.2~GPa), BeAu remains a multi-gap type-I superconductor. The analysis of B_{rm c}(T, p) data within the self-consistent two-gap approach suggests the presence of two superconducting energy gaps, with the gap-to-T_{rm c} ratios Δ_1/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} sim 2.3 and Δ_2/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} sim 1.1 for the larger and smaller gaps, respectively [Δ= Δ(0) is the zero-temperature value of the gap and k_{rm B} is the Boltzmann constant]. With increasing pressure, Δ_1/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} increases while Δ_2/k_{rm B}T_{rm c} decreases, suggesting that pressure enhances (weakens) the coupling strength between the superconducting carriers within the bands where the larger (smaller) superconducting energy gap has opened. The superconducting transition temperature T_{rm c}, black{the zero-temperature values of the superconducting gaps Δ_1 and Δ_2} and the zero-temperature value of the thermodynamic critical field B_{rm c}(0) decrease with increasing pressure, with the rates of {rm d}T_{rm c}/{rm d}p simeq -0.195~K/GPa, black{{rm d}Δ_1/{rm d}p simeq -0.034~meV/GPa, {rm d}Δ_2/{rm d}p simeq -0.029~meV/GPa,} and {rm d}B_{rm c}(0)/{rm d}p = -2.65(1)~mT/GPa, respectively. The measured B_{rm c}(0) values plotted as a function of T_{rm c} follow an empirical scaling relation established for conventional type-I superconductors.

  • 10 authors
·
Feb 2, 2025

Efficient Estimation of Material Property Curves and Surfaces via Active Learning

The relationship between material properties and independent variables such as temperature, external field or time, is usually represented by a curve or surface in a multi-dimensional space. Determining such a curve or surface requires a series of experiments or calculations which are often time and cost consuming. A general strategy uses an appropriate utility function to sample the space to recommend the next optimal experiment or calculation within an active learning loop. However, knowing what the optimal sampling strategy to use to minimize the number of experiments is an outstanding problem. We compare a number of strategies based on directed exploration on several materials problems of varying complexity using a Kriging based model. These include one dimensional curves such as the fatigue life curve for 304L stainless steel and the Liquidus line of the Fe-C phase diagram, surfaces such as the Hartmann 3 function in 3D space and the fitted intermolecular potential for Ar-SH, and a four dimensional data set of experimental measurements for BaTiO3 based ceramics. We also consider the effects of experimental noise on the Hartmann 3 function. We find that directed exploration guided by maximum variance provides better performance overall, converging faster across several data sets. However, for certain problems, the trade-off methods incorporating exploitation can perform at least as well, if not better than maximum variance. Thus, we discuss how the choice of the utility function depends on the distribution of the data, the model performance and uncertainties, additive noise as well as the budget.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 14, 2020

An Ensemble of Bayesian Neural Networks for Exoplanetary Atmospheric Retrieval

Machine learning is now used in many areas of astrophysics, from detecting exoplanets in Kepler transit signals to removing telescope systematics. Recent work demonstrated the potential of using machine learning algorithms for atmospheric retrieval by implementing a random forest to perform retrievals in seconds that are consistent with the traditional, computationally-expensive nested-sampling retrieval method. We expand upon their approach by presenting a new machine learning model, plan-net, based on an ensemble of Bayesian neural networks that yields more accurate inferences than the random forest for the same data set of synthetic transmission spectra. We demonstrate that an ensemble provides greater accuracy and more robust uncertainties than a single model. In addition to being the first to use Bayesian neural networks for atmospheric retrieval, we also introduce a new loss function for Bayesian neural networks that learns correlations between the model outputs. Importantly, we show that designing machine learning models to explicitly incorporate domain-specific knowledge both improves performance and provides additional insight by inferring the covariance of the retrieved atmospheric parameters. We apply plan-net to the Hubble Space Telescope Wide Field Camera 3 transmission spectrum for WASP-12b and retrieve an isothermal temperature and water abundance consistent with the literature. We highlight that our method is flexible and can be expanded to higher-resolution spectra and a larger number of atmospheric parameters.

  • 10 authors
·
May 25, 2019

MSWEP V3: Machine Learning-Powered Global Precipitation Estimates at 0.1$^\circ$ Hourly Resolution (1979-Present)

We introduce Version 3 (V3) of the gridded near real-time Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) product -- the first fully global, historical machine learning powered precipitation (P) dataset, developed to meet the growing demand for timely and accurate P estimates amid escalating climate challenges. MSWEP V3 provides hourly data at 0.1^circ resolution from 1979 to the present, continuously updated with a latency of approximately two hours. Development follows a two-stage process. First, baseline P fields are generated using machine learning model stacks that integrate satellite- and (re)analysis-based P and air-temperature products, along with static variables. The models are trained using hourly and daily observations from 15,959 P gauges worldwide. Second, these baseline P fields are corrected using daily and monthly gauge observations from 57,666 and 86,000 stations globally. To assess MSWEP V3's baseline performance, we evaluated 19 (quasi-) global gridded P products -- including both uncorrected and gauge-based products -- using observations from an independent set of 15,958 gauges excluded from the first training stage. The MSWEP V3 baseline achieved a median daily Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) of 0.69, outperforming all evaluated products. Other uncorrected products achieved median daily KGE values of 0.61 (ERA5), 0.46 (IMERG-L V7), 0.38 (GSMaP V8), and 0.31 (CHIRP). Using leave-one-out cross-validation, the daily gauge correction was found to improve the median daily correlation by 0.09, constrained by the already strong baseline performance. We anticipate that MSWEP V3 -- accessible at www.gloh2o.org/mswep -- will enable more reliable monitoring, forecasting, and management of water-related risks in a variable and changing climate.

  • 15 authors
·
Feb 1

FD-LLM: Large Language Model for Fault Diagnosis of Machines

Large language models (LLMs) are effective at capturing complex, valuable conceptual representations from textual data for a wide range of real-world applications. However, in fields like Intelligent Fault Diagnosis (IFD), incorporating additional sensor data-such as vibration signals, temperature readings, and operational metrics-is essential but it is challenging to capture such sensor data information within traditional text corpora. This study introduces a novel IFD approach by effectively adapting LLMs to numerical data inputs for identifying various machine faults from time-series sensor data. We propose FD-LLM, an LLM framework specifically designed for fault diagnosis by formulating the training of the LLM as a multi-class classification problem. We explore two methods for encoding vibration signals: the first method uses a string-based tokenization technique to encode vibration signals into text representations, while the second extracts statistical features from both the time and frequency domains as statistical summaries of each signal. We assess the fault diagnosis capabilities of four open-sourced LLMs based on the FD-LLM framework, and evaluate the models' adaptability and generalizability under various operational conditions and machine components, namely for traditional fault diagnosis, cross-operational conditions, and cross-machine component settings. Our results show that LLMs such as Llama3 and Llama3-instruct demonstrate strong fault detection capabilities and significant adaptability across different operational conditions, outperforming state-of-the-art deep learning (DL) approaches in many cases.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 2, 2024

MHD study of planetary magnetospheric response during extreme solar wind conditions: Earth and exoplanet magnetospheres applications

Context: The stellar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field modify the topology of planetary magnetospheres. Consequently, the hazardous effect of the direct exposition to the stellar wind, for example regarding the integrity of satellites orbiting the Earth or the habitability of exoplanets, depend upon the space weather conditions. Aims: The aim of the study is to analyze the response of an Earth-like magnetosphere for various space weather conditions and interplanetary coronal mass ejections. The magnetopause stand off distance, open-close field line boundary and plasma flows towards the planet surface are calculated. Methods: We use the MHD code PLUTO in spherical coordinates to perform a parametric study regarding the dynamic pressure and temperature of the stellar wind as well as the interplanetary magnetic field intensity and orientation. The range of the parameters analyzed extends from regular to extreme space weather conditions consistent with coronal mass ejections at the Earth orbit for the present and early periods of the Sun main sequence. In addition, implications of sub-Afvenic solar wind configurations for the Earth and exoplanet magnetospheres are analyzed. Results: The direct precipitation of the solar wind at the Earth day side in equatorial latitudes is extremely unlikely even during super coronal mass ejections. On the other hand, for early evolution phases along the Sun main sequence once the Sun rotation rate was at least 5 times faster (< 440 Myr), the Earth surface was directly exposed to the solar wind during coronal mass ejections. Nowadays, satellites at High, Geosynchronous and Medium orbits are directly exposed to the solar wind during coronal mass ejections, because part of the orbit at the Earth day side is beyond the nose of the bow shock.

  • 6 authors
·
Mar 4, 2022

To Cool or not to Cool? Temperature Network Meets Large Foundation Models via DRO

The temperature parameter plays a profound role during training and/or inference with large foundation models (LFMs) such as large language models (LLMs) and CLIP models. Particularly, it adjusts the logits in the softmax function in LLMs, which is crucial for next token generation, and it scales the similarities in the contrastive loss for training CLIP models. A significant question remains: Is it viable to learn a neural network to predict a personalized temperature of any input data for enhancing LFMs"? In this paper, we present a principled framework for learning a small yet generalizable temperature prediction network (TempNet) to improve LFMs. Our solution is composed of a novel learning framework with a robust loss underpinned by constrained distributionally robust optimization (DRO), and a properly designed TempNet with theoretical inspiration. TempNet can be trained together with a large foundation model from scratch or learned separately given a pretrained foundation model. It is not only useful for predicting personalized temperature to promote the training of LFMs but also generalizable and transferable to new tasks. Our experiments on LLMs and CLIP models demonstrate that TempNet greatly improves the performance of existing solutions or models, e.g. Table 1. The code to reproduce the experimental results in this paper can be found at https://github.com/zhqiu/TempNet.

  • 6 authors
·
Apr 6, 2024

Climate-sensitive Urban Planning through Optimization of Tree Placements

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of many extreme weather events, including heatwaves, which results in increased thermal discomfort and mortality rates. While global mitigation action is undoubtedly necessary, so is climate adaptation, e.g., through climate-sensitive urban planning. Among the most promising strategies is harnessing the benefits of urban trees in shading and cooling pedestrian-level environments. Our work investigates the challenge of optimal placement of such trees. Physical simulations can estimate the radiative and thermal impact of trees on human thermal comfort but induce high computational costs. This rules out optimization of tree placements over large areas and considering effects over longer time scales. Hence, we employ neural networks to simulate the point-wise mean radiant temperatures--a driving factor of outdoor human thermal comfort--across various time scales, spanning from daily variations to extended time scales of heatwave events and even decades. To optimize tree placements, we harness the innate local effect of trees within the iterated local search framework with tailored adaptations. We show the efficacy of our approach across a wide spectrum of study areas and time scales. We believe that our approach is a step towards empowering decision-makers, urban designers and planners to proactively and effectively assess the potential of urban trees to mitigate heat stress.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 9, 2023

Exploring the Impact of Temperature on Large Language Models:Hot or Cold?

The sampling temperature, a critical hyperparameter in large language models (LLMs), modifies the logits before the softmax layer, thereby reshaping the distribution of output tokens. Recent studies have challenged the Stochastic Parrots analogy by demonstrating that LLMs are capable of understanding semantics rather than merely memorizing data and that randomness, modulated by sampling temperature, plays a crucial role in model inference. In this study, we systematically evaluated the impact of temperature in the range of 0 to 2 on data sets designed to assess six different capabilities, conducting statistical analyses on open source models of three different sizes: small (1B--4B), medium (6B--13B), and large (40B--80B). Our findings reveal distinct skill-specific effects of temperature on model performance, highlighting the complexity of optimal temperature selection in practical applications. To address this challenge, we propose a BERT-based temperature selector that takes advantage of these observed effects to identify the optimal temperature for a given prompt. We demonstrate that this approach can significantly improve the performance of small and medium models in the SuperGLUE datasets. Furthermore, our study extends to FP16 precision inference, revealing that temperature effects are consistent with those observed in 4-bit quantized models. By evaluating temperature effects up to 4.0 in three quantized models, we find that the Mutation Temperature -- the point at which significant performance changes occur -- increases with model size.

  • 5 authors
·
Jun 8, 2025

Thermodynamic Isomorphism of Transformers: A Lagrangian Approach to Attention Dynamics

We propose an effective field-theoretic framework for analyzing Transformer attention through a thermodynamic lens. By constructing a Lagrangian on the information manifold equipped with the Fisher metric, we show that, within the Shannon--Boltzmann entropy framework, the Softmax function arises as a stationary solution minimizing a Helmholtz free energy functional. This establishes a formal correspondence between scaled dot-product attention and canonical ensemble statistics. Extending this mapping to macroscopic observables, we define an effective specific heat associated with fluctuations of the attention energy landscape. In controlled experiments on the modular addition task (p = 19--113), we observe a robust peak in this fluctuation measure that consistently precedes the onset of generalization. While no asymptotic power-law divergence is detected in this finite-depth regime, the reproducible enhancement of energy variance suggests a critical-like crossover accompanying representational reorganization. Our framework provides a unified statistical-mechanical perspective on attention scaling, training dynamics, and positional encoding, interpreting the phenomena as emergent properties of an effective thermodynamic system rather than isolated heuristics. Although the present results indicate finite-size crossover behavior rather than a strict phase transition, they motivate further investigation into scaling limits of deep architectures through fluctuation-based observables.

  • 1 authors
·
Feb 12

Complex-valued neural networks to speed-up MR Thermometry during Hyperthermia using Fourier PD and PDUNet

Hyperthermia (HT) in combination with radio- and/or chemotherapy has become an accepted cancer treatment for distinct solid tumour entities. In HT, tumour tissue is exogenously heated to temperatures between 39 and 43 ^circC for 60 minutes. Temperature monitoring can be performed non-invasively using dynamic magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, the slow nature of MRI leads to motion artefacts in the images due to the movements of patients during image acquisition. By discarding parts of the data, the speed of the acquisition can be increased - known as undersampling. However, due to the invalidation of the Nyquist criterion, the acquired images might be blurry and can also produce aliasing artefacts. The aim of this work was, therefore, to reconstruct highly undersampled MR thermometry acquisitions with better resolution and with fewer artefacts compared to conventional methods. The use of deep learning in the medical field has emerged in recent times, and various studies have shown that deep learning has the potential to solve inverse problems such as MR image reconstruction. However, most of the published work only focuses on the magnitude images, while the phase images are ignored, which are fundamental requirements for MR thermometry. This work, for the first time, presents deep learning-based solutions for reconstructing undersampled MR thermometry data. Two different deep learning models have been employed here, the Fourier Primal-Dual network and the Fourier Primal-Dual UNet, to reconstruct highly undersampled complex images of MR thermometry. The method reduced the temperature difference between the undersampled MRIs and the fully sampled MRIs from 1.3 ^circC to 0.6 ^circC in full volume and 0.49 ^circC to 0.06 ^circC in the tumour region for an acceleration factor of 10.

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 2, 2023

Physics-Enhanced Deep Learning for Proactive Thermal Runaway Forecasting in Li-Ion Batteries

Accurate prediction of thermal runaway in lithium-ion batteries is essential for ensuring the safety, efficiency, and reliability of modern energy storage systems. Conventional data-driven approaches, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, can capture complex temporal dependencies but often violate thermodynamic principles, resulting in physically inconsistent predictions. Conversely, physics-based thermal models provide interpretability but are computationally expensive and difficult to parameterize for real-time applications. To bridge this gap, this study proposes a Physics-Informed Long Short-Term Memory (PI-LSTM) framework that integrates governing heat transfer equations directly into the deep learning architecture through a physics-based regularization term in the loss function. The model leverages multi-feature input sequences, including state of charge, voltage, current, mechanical stress, and surface temperature, to forecast battery temperature evolution while enforcing thermal diffusion constraints. Extensive experiments conducted on thirteen lithium-ion battery datasets demonstrate that the proposed PI-LSTM achieves an 81.9% reduction in root mean square error (RMSE) and an 81.3% reduction in mean absolute error (MAE) compared to the standard LSTM baseline, while also outperforming CNN-LSTM and multilayer perceptron (MLP) models by wide margins. The inclusion of physical constraints enhances the model's generalization across diverse operating conditions and eliminates non-physical temperature oscillations. These results confirm that physics-informed deep learning offers a viable pathway toward interpretable, accurate, and real-time thermal management in next-generation battery systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 21

Revisiting urban heat indices in Switzerland using low-cost measurement networks

Urban populations are increasingly exposed to extreme heat events such as heatwaves, which can be exacerbated in cities due to the urban heat island (UHI) effect. With the aim of developing adaptation strategies, recent years have seen a growing interest in deploying high-resolution measurement networks using low-cost devices (LCDs), which enable the evaluation of intra-urban temperature distribution and its impacts at an unprecedented spatial resolution. However, the reliability of LCD measurements has been called into question, especially regarding potential overheating due to inadequate radiation shielding. In this study, we develop a statistical method to correct temperature biases based on short-wave radiation using a generalized additive model (GAM) and then apply it to LCD measurements in the urban climate networks of the cities of Bern, Lausanne, Neuchatel and Zurich (Switzerland). To that end, we first calibrate the correction procedure to the LCD models used in each city using an intercomparison field study, in which the LCD models are collocated next to a professional automated weather station (AWS) operated by MeteoSwiss in the rural surroundings of Bern. Then, we evaluate how these corrections can influence two climate indices, namely the number of tropical nights and the number of heat warnings issued in each city according to MeteoSwiss heat warning system. The findings suggest that the current AWS underestimate the heat warnings, whereas some LCD models likely overestimate them due to radiative errors. Nevertheless, uncorrected LCD measurements still provide a more reliable estimate of urban temperatures than AWS located outside urban settings. The insights can guide selection of LCD models for new monitoring networks and support the application of model-specific radiative bias corrections to existing LCDs, enabling more accurate assessments of heat and its impacts.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 8

Ergotropy and Capacity Optimization in Heisenberg Spin Chain Quantum Batteries

This study examines the performance of finite spin quantum batteries (QBs) using Heisenberg spin models with Dzyaloshinsky-Moriya (DM) and Kaplan--Shekhtman--Entin-Wohlman--Aharony (KSEA) interactions. The QBs are modeled as interacting quantum spins in local inhomogeneous magnetic fields, inducing variable Zeeman splitting. We derive analytical expressions for the maximal extractable work, ergotropy and the capacity of QBs, as recently examined by Yang et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 131, 030402 (2023)]. These quantities are analytically linked through certain quantum correlations, as posited in the aforementioned study. Different Heisenberg spin chain models exhibit distinct behaviors under varying conditions, emphasizing the importance of model selection for optimizing QB performance. In antiferromagnetic (AFM) systems, maximum ergotropy occurs with a Zeeman splitting field applied to either spin, while ferromagnetic (FM) systems benefit from a uniform Zeeman field. Temperature significantly impacts QB performance, with ergotropy in the AFM case being generally more robust against temperature increases compared to the FM case. Incorporating DM and KSEA couplings can significantly enhance the capacity and ergotropy extraction of QBs. However, there exists a threshold beyond which additional increases in these interactions cause a sharp decline in capacity and ergotropy. This behavior is influenced by temperature and quantum coherence, which signal the occurrence of a sudden phase transition. The resource theory of quantum coherence proposed by Baumgratz et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 113, 140401 (2014)] plays a crucial role in enhancing ergotropy and capacity. However, ergotropy is limited by both the system's capacity and the amount of coherence. These findings support the theoretical framework of spin-based QBs and may benefit future research on quantum energy storage devices.

  • 8 authors
·
Jul 31, 2024

Open-source Flux Transport (OFT). I. HipFT -- High-performance Flux Transport

Global solar photospheric magnetic maps play a critical role in solar and heliospheric physics research. Routine magnetograph measurements of the field occur only along the Sun-Earth line, leaving the far-side of the Sun unobserved. Surface Flux Transport (SFT) models attempt to mitigate this by modeling the surface evolution of the field. While such models have long been established in the community (with several releasing public full-Sun maps), none are open source. The Open Source Flux Transport (OFT) model seeks to fill this gap by providing an open and user-extensible SFT model that also builds on the knowledge of previous models with updated numerical and data acquisition/assimilation methods along with additional user-defined features. In this first of a series of papers on OFT, we introduce its computational core: the High-performance Flux Transport (HipFT) code (github.com/predsci/hipft). HipFT implements advection, diffusion, and data assimilation in a modular design that supports a variety of flow models and options. It can compute multiple realizations in a single run across model parameters to create ensembles of maps for uncertainty quantification and is high-performance through the use of multi-CPU and multi-GPU parallelism. HipFT is designed to enable users to easily write extensions, enhancing its flexibility and adaptability. We describe HipFT's model features, validations of its numerical methods, performance of its parallel and GPU-accelerated code implementation, analysis/post-processing options, and example use cases.

  • 8 authors
·
Jan 10, 2025

Representing the Surface Ocean in ECMWF's data-driven forecasting system AIFS

Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea ice. The primary objective of this extension is to enhance machine-learning medium-range forecasting and enable new use cases by expanding the weather state to better capture coupled surface processes. Our approach departs from traditional numerical models by not having two separate models for the atmosphere and marine components. The joint model instead learns correlations across the entire atmosphere-ocean interface in a component-agnostic way, and can exploit the expressive capacity of ML architectures to learn cross-component relationships directly from the data. We leverage tailored and targeted datasets and solve model design challenges such as missing values over land, multi-scale temporal dynamics, and physical realism of forecast fields and demonstrate the utility of loss scaling in guiding the learning process. We evaluate how representing the surface ocean affects medium-range weather forecasts. We also assess the model's ability to predict surface-ocean fields, including wave swell and tropical-cyclone cold wakes. For nearly all evaluated marine variables, we observe an improvement of approximately one day in forecast skill at medium-range lead times compared to physics-based models. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the model is robust to idealised initial conditions outside the training distribution and responds to them in a physically consistent way. Overall, our findings suggest that the joint AIFS modelling approach offers significant potential for combined atmosphere-ocean forecasting. Our work provides a solid foundation for future development of data-driven coupled Earth system models with greater flexibility and physical fidelity.

  • 25 authors
·
Apr 27

ClimateLearn: Benchmarking Machine Learning for Weather and Climate Modeling

Modeling weather and climate is an essential endeavor to understand the near- and long-term impacts of climate change, as well as inform technology and policymaking for adaptation and mitigation efforts. In recent years, there has been a surging interest in applying data-driven methods based on machine learning for solving core problems such as weather forecasting and climate downscaling. Despite promising results, much of this progress has been impaired due to the lack of large-scale, open-source efforts for reproducibility, resulting in the use of inconsistent or underspecified datasets, training setups, and evaluations by both domain scientists and artificial intelligence researchers. We introduce ClimateLearn, an open-source PyTorch library that vastly simplifies the training and evaluation of machine learning models for data-driven climate science. ClimateLearn consists of holistic pipelines for dataset processing (e.g., ERA5, CMIP6, PRISM), implementation of state-of-the-art deep learning models (e.g., Transformers, ResNets), and quantitative and qualitative evaluation for standard weather and climate modeling tasks. We supplement these functionalities with extensive documentation, contribution guides, and quickstart tutorials to expand access and promote community growth. We have also performed comprehensive forecasting and downscaling experiments to showcase the capabilities and key features of our library. To our knowledge, ClimateLearn is the first large-scale, open-source effort for bridging research in weather and climate modeling with modern machine learning systems. Our library is available publicly at https://github.com/aditya-grover/climate-learn.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 4, 2023

EO-WM: A Physically Informed World Model for Probabilistic Earth Observation Forecasting

Earth Observation (EO) forecasting aims to predict future Earth surface dynamics from satellite observations under changing meteorological conditions. In this paper, we view this task as a partially observed, weather-driven world modeling problem, in which weather acts as a conditioning signal, while forecasting remains uncertain due to sparse observations and unobserved land-surface states. However, existing methods do not fully capture this setting: deterministic models collapse uncertainty into a single future prediction, while diffusion-based methods typically treat weather variables as undifferentiated conditioning signals, and existing benchmarks focus mainly on reconstruction accuracy rather than whether forecasts respond correctly to changed weather forcing.We introduce EO-WM, a video diffusion transformer for multispectral EO forecasting. EO-WM incorporates a physically informed conditioning framework that represents meteorological forcing through a climatological baseline, weather anomalies, and cumulative physical stress signals. Specifically, it separates baseline and anomaly through distinct conditioning pathways, and accumulates anomalous forcing over time to capture sustained heat and drought stress. To evaluate weather-response behavior beyond standard metrics, we introduce two diagnostic benchmarks: an Extreme Summer Benchmark for severity-aware prediction of vegetation degradation under extreme weather, and a Seasonal Matched-Pair Benchmark for testing response fidelity under changed weather forcing. Experiments show that EO-WM reduces the error in predicted Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) decline amplitude by a relative 5.63% and improves directional hit rate by a relative 7.80%, while remaining competitive on standard pixel-level metrics. The benchmarks and model will be made open-source at https://github.com/Luo-Z13/EO-WM.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 24 2

LSTM-PINN for Steady-State Electrothermal Transport: Preserving Multi-Field Consis tency in Strongly Coupled Heat and Fluid Flow

Steady-state electrothermal systems involve strongly coupled heat transfer, fluid flow, and electric-potential transport, creating severe numerical challenges for standard physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) due to stark disparities in gradient scales and residual stiffnesses across the physical fields. To resolve these multiphysics bottlenecks, we introduce a Long Short-Term Memory PINN (LSTM-PINN) framework that utilizes a depth-recursive memory mechanism to preserve long-range spatial feature dependencies and maintain strict cross-field consistency. The proposed architecture is rigorously evaluated against conventional and attention-based networks across a unified five-field formulation encompassing four complex convective and drag regimes: Boussinesq electrothermal flow, drift-potential gauge-constrained transport, strong buoyancy-coupled convection, and Brinkman--Forchheimer drift. Quantitative and visual analyses demonstrate that LSTM-PINN successfully suppresses non-physical artifacts and structural distortions, yielding the highest thermodynamic fidelity and consistently outperforming state-of-the-art baselines in global error metrics. Ultimately, this memory-enhanced approach provides a highly robust and accurate computational baseline for capturing localized boundary layers and complex energy-momentum feedback in advanced electrothermal energy systems.

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 2

Tyche: One Step Flow for Efficient Probabilistic Weather Forecasting

Probabilistic weather forecasting requires not only accurate trajectories, but calibrated distributions over plausible atmospheric futures. Recent data-driven systems have achieved remarkable deterministic skill, and diffusion-based ensemble forecasters have substantially improved sample realism and uncertainty quantification. However, their inference cost scales with forecast horizon, ensemble size, and the number of denoising steps required for each transition, making large operational ensembles expensive. To address this, we present Tyche, a one-step conditional flow model for efficient probabilistic weather forecasting. Tyche models the conditional forecast distribution with a destination-aware average-velocity flow that maps Gaussian noise directly to future weather states in a single function evaluation (1-NFE). To make this one-step transport learnable in high-dimensional geophysical fields, we derive a JVP-regularized rectification objective that enforces temporal self-consistency across source and destination flow timesteps without explicitly forming Jacobians. The transport field is parameterized by an isotropic Swin-style transformer that preserves fine-scale spatial structure while remaining scalable on global grids. To improve ensemble reliability under autoregressive forecasting, we further introduce a rollout-based finetuning stage with curriculum CRPS calibration supervision. Experiments on ERA5 at 1.5^circ and 6-hour resolution show that our Tyche, using merely a single NFE, matches or exceeds the forecast skill and calibration of state-of-the-art multi-step generative baselines and the operational ECMWF IFS ensemble.

  • 7 authors
·
May 6

MR-GNF: Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Forecasting on Ellipsoidal Meshes for Efficient Regional Weather Prediction

Weather forecasting offers an ideal testbed for artificial intelligence (AI) to learn complex, multi-scale physical systems. Traditional numerical weather prediction remains computationally costly for frequent regional updates, as high-resolution nests require intensive boundary coupling. We introduce Multi-Resolution Graph Neural Forecasting (MR-GNF), a lightweight, physics-aware model that performs short-term regional forecasts directly on an ellipsoidal, multi-scale graph of the Earth. The framework couples a 0.25° region of interest with a 0.5° context belt and 1.0° outer domain, enabling continuous cross-scale message passing without explicit nested boundaries. Its axial graph-attention network alternates vertical self-attention across pressure levels with horizontal graph attention across surface nodes, capturing implicit 3-D structure in just 1.6 M parameters. Trained on 40 years of ERA5 reanalysis (1980-2024), MR-GNF delivers stable +6 h to +24 h forecasts for near-surface temperature, wind, and precipitation over the UK-Ireland sector. Despite a total compute cost below 80 GPU-hours on a single RTX 6000 Ada, the model matches or exceeds heavier regional AI systems while preserving physical consistency across scales. These results demonstrate that graph-based neural operators can achieve trustworthy, high-resolution weather prediction at a fraction of NWP cost, opening a practical path toward AI-driven early-warning and renewable-energy forecasting systems. Project page and code: https://github.com/AndriiShchur/MR-GNF

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 12

Convolutional Neural Networks on the HEALPix sphere: a pixel-based algorithm and its application to CMB data analysis

We describe a novel method for the application of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to fields defined on the sphere, using the HEALPix tessellation scheme. Specifically, We have developed a pixel-based approach to implement convolutional layers on the spherical surface, similarly to what is commonly done for CNNs in Euclidian space. The algorithm is fully integrable with existing libraries for NNs (e.g., PyTorch or TensorFlow). We present two applications: (i) recognition of handwritten digits projected on the sphere; (ii) estimation of cosmological parameter from Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) simulated maps. We have built a simple NN architecture, consisting in four convolutional+pooling layers, and have used it for all the applications explored herein. For what concerns the handwritten digits, our CNN reaches an accuracy of about 95%, comparable with other existing spherical CNNs. For CMB applications, we have tested the CNN on the estimation of a "mock" parameter, defining the angular scale at which the power spectrum of a Gaussian field projected on the sphere peaks. We have estimated this parameter directly from maps, in several cases: temperature and polarization, presence of noise and partial sky coverage. In all the cases, the NN performances are comparable with those from standard spectrum-based bayesian methods. We demonstrate, for the first time, the capability of CNNs to extract information from polarization fields and to distinguish between E and B-modes. Lastly, we have applied our CNN to the estimation of the Thomson scattering optical depth at reionization (tau) from simulated CMB maps. Even without any specific optimization of the NN architecture, we reach an accuracy comparable with standard bayesian methods. This work represents a first step towards the exploitation of NNs in CMB parameter estimation and demonstrates the feasibility of our approach.

  • 2 authors
·
Jul 14, 2019

Met^2Net: A Decoupled Two-Stage Spatio-Temporal Forecasting Model for Complex Meteorological Systems

The increasing frequency of extreme weather events due to global climate change urges accurate weather prediction. Recently, great advances have been made by the end-to-end methods, thanks to deep learning techniques, but they face limitations of representation inconsistency in multivariable integration and struggle to effectively capture the dependency between variables, which is required in complex weather systems. Treating different variables as distinct modalities and applying a two-stage training approach from multimodal models can partially alleviate this issue, but due to the inconformity in training tasks between the two stages, the results are often suboptimal. To address these challenges, we propose an implicit two-stage training method, configuring separate encoders and decoders for each variable. In detailed, in the first stage, the Translator is frozen while the Encoders and Decoders learn a shared latent space, in the second stage, the Encoders and Decoders are frozen, and the Translator captures inter-variable interactions for prediction. Besides, by introducing a self-attention mechanism for multivariable fusion in the latent space, the performance achieves further improvements. Empirically, extensive experiments show the state-of-the-art performance of our method. Specifically, it reduces the MSE for near-surface air temperature and relative humidity predictions by 28.82\% and 23.39\%, respectively. The source code is available at https://github.com/ShremG/Met2Net.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 23, 2025 1

Explainable Earth Surface Forecasting under Extreme Events

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of processing, visualizing, modeling, and explaining this data. To showcase how this challenge can be met, here we train a convolutional long short-term memory-based architecture on the novel DeepExtremeCubes dataset. DeepExtremeCubes includes around 40,000 long-term Sentinel-2 minicubes (January 2016-October 2022) worldwide, along with labeled extreme events, meteorological data, vegetation land cover, and topography map, sampled from locations affected by extreme climate events and surrounding areas. When predicting future reflectances and vegetation impacts through kernel normalized difference vegetation index, the model achieved an R^2 score of 0.9055 in the test set. Explainable artificial intelligence was used to analyze the model's predictions during the October 2020 Central South America compound heatwave and drought event. We chose the same area exactly one year before the event as counterfactual, finding that the average temperature and surface pressure are generally the best predictors under normal conditions. In contrast, minimum anomalies of evaporation and surface latent heat flux take the lead during the event. A change of regime is also observed in the attributions before the event, which might help assess how long the event was brewing before happening. The code to replicate all experiments and figures in this paper is publicly available at https://github.com/DeepExtremes/txyXAI

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 2, 2024

Multiphysics Bench: Benchmarking and Investigating Scientific Machine Learning for Multiphysics PDEs

Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) with machine learning has recently attracted great attention, as PDEs are fundamental tools for modeling real-world systems that range from fundamental physical science to advanced engineering disciplines. Most real-world physical systems across various disciplines are actually involved in multiple coupled physical fields rather than a single field. However, previous machine learning studies mainly focused on solving single-field problems, but overlooked the importance and characteristics of multiphysics problems in real world. Multiphysics PDEs typically entail multiple strongly coupled variables, thereby introducing additional complexity and challenges, such as inter-field coupling. Both benchmarking and solving multiphysics problems with machine learning remain largely unexamined. To identify and address the emerging challenges in multiphysics problems, we mainly made three contributions in this work. First, we collect the first general multiphysics dataset, the Multiphysics Bench, that focuses on multiphysics PDE solving with machine learning. Multiphysics Bench is also the most comprehensive PDE dataset to date, featuring the broadest range of coupling types, the greatest diversity of PDE formulations, and the largest dataset scale. Second, we conduct the first systematic investigation on multiple representative learning-based PDE solvers, such as PINNs, FNO, DeepONet, and DiffusionPDE solvers, on multiphysics problems. Unfortunately, naively applying these existing solvers usually show very poor performance for solving multiphysics. Third, through extensive experiments and discussions, we report multiple insights and a bag of useful tricks for solving multiphysics with machine learning, motivating future directions in the study and simulation of complex, coupled physical systems.

  • 5 authors
·
May 23, 2025

Location-aware Adaptive Normalization: A Deep Learning Approach For Wildfire Danger Forecasting

Climate change is expected to intensify and increase extreme events in the weather cycle. Since this has a significant impact on various sectors of our life, recent works are concerned with identifying and predicting such extreme events from Earth observations. With respect to wildfire danger forecasting, previous deep learning approaches duplicate static variables along the time dimension and neglect the intrinsic differences between static and dynamic variables. Furthermore, most existing multi-branch architectures lose the interconnections between the branches during the feature learning stage. To address these issues, this paper proposes a 2D/3D two-branch convolutional neural network (CNN) with a Location-aware Adaptive Normalization layer (LOAN). Using LOAN as a building block, we can modulate the dynamic features conditional on their geographical locations. Thus, our approach considers feature properties as a unified yet compound 2D/3D model. Besides, we propose using the sinusoidal-based encoding of the day of the year to provide the model with explicit temporal information about the target day within the year. Our experimental results show a better performance of our approach than other baselines on the challenging FireCube dataset. The results show that location-aware adaptive feature normalization is a promising technique to learn the relation between dynamic variables and their geographic locations, which is highly relevant for areas where remote sensing data builds the basis for analysis. The source code is available at https://github.com/HakamShams/LOAN.

UniBonn Univerity of Bonn
·
Dec 15, 2022

Deep Learning and Foundation Models for Weather Prediction: A Survey

Physics-based numerical models have been the bedrock of atmospheric sciences for decades, offering robust solutions but often at the cost of significant computational resources. Deep learning (DL) models have emerged as powerful tools in meteorology, capable of analyzing complex weather and climate data by learning intricate dependencies and providing rapid predictions once trained. While these models demonstrate promising performance in weather prediction, often surpassing traditional physics-based methods, they still face critical challenges. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of recent deep learning and foundation models for weather prediction. We propose a taxonomy to classify existing models based on their training paradigms: deterministic predictive learning, probabilistic generative learning, and pre-training and fine-tuning. For each paradigm, we delve into the underlying model architectures, address major challenges, offer key insights, and propose targeted directions for future research. Furthermore, we explore real-world applications of these methods and provide a curated summary of open-source code repositories and widely used datasets, aiming to bridge research advancements with practical implementations while fostering open and trustworthy scientific practices in adopting cutting-edge artificial intelligence for weather prediction. The related sources are available at https://github.com/JimengShi/ DL-Foundation-Models-Weather.

  • 13 authors
·
Jan 12, 2025

ClimaX: A foundation model for weather and climate

Most state-of-the-art approaches for weather and climate modeling are based on physics-informed numerical models of the atmosphere. These approaches aim to model the non-linear dynamics and complex interactions between multiple variables, which are challenging to approximate. Additionally, many such numerical models are computationally intensive, especially when modeling the atmospheric phenomenon at a fine-grained spatial and temporal resolution. Recent data-driven approaches based on machine learning instead aim to directly solve a downstream forecasting or projection task by learning a data-driven functional mapping using deep neural networks. However, these networks are trained using curated and homogeneous climate datasets for specific spatiotemporal tasks, and thus lack the generality of numerical models. We develop and demonstrate ClimaX, a flexible and generalizable deep learning model for weather and climate science that can be trained using heterogeneous datasets spanning different variables, spatio-temporal coverage, and physical groundings. ClimaX extends the Transformer architecture with novel encoding and aggregation blocks that allow effective use of available compute while maintaining general utility. ClimaX is pre-trained with a self-supervised learning objective on climate datasets derived from CMIP6. The pre-trained ClimaX can then be fine-tuned to address a breadth of climate and weather tasks, including those that involve atmospheric variables and spatio-temporal scales unseen during pretraining. Compared to existing data-driven baselines, we show that this generality in ClimaX results in superior performance on benchmarks for weather forecasting and climate projections, even when pretrained at lower resolutions and compute budgets.

  • 5 authors
·
Jan 24, 2023

Not All Semantics are Created Equal: Contrastive Self-supervised Learning with Automatic Temperature Individualization

In this paper, we aim to optimize a contrastive loss with individualized temperatures in a principled and systematic manner for self-supervised learning. The common practice of using a global temperature parameter tau ignores the fact that ``not all semantics are created equal", meaning that different anchor data may have different numbers of samples with similar semantics, especially when data exhibits long-tails. First, we propose a new robust contrastive loss inspired by distributionally robust optimization (DRO), providing us an intuition about the effect of tau and a mechanism for automatic temperature individualization. Then, we propose an efficient stochastic algorithm for optimizing the robust contrastive loss with a provable convergence guarantee without using large mini-batch sizes. Theoretical and experimental results show that our algorithm automatically learns a suitable tau for each sample. Specifically, samples with frequent semantics use large temperatures to keep local semantic structures, while samples with rare semantics use small temperatures to induce more separable features. Our method not only outperforms prior strong baselines (e.g., SimCLR, CLIP) on unimodal and bimodal datasets with larger improvements on imbalanced data but also is less sensitive to hyper-parameters. To our best knowledge, this is the first methodical approach to optimizing a contrastive loss with individualized temperatures.

  • 6 authors
·
May 19, 2023

Weather2K: A Multivariate Spatio-Temporal Benchmark Dataset for Meteorological Forecasting Based on Real-Time Observation Data from Ground Weather Stations

Weather forecasting is one of the cornerstones of meteorological work. In this paper, we present a new benchmark dataset named Weather2K, which aims to make up for the deficiencies of existing weather forecasting datasets in terms of real-time, reliability, and diversity, as well as the key bottleneck of data quality. To be specific, our Weather2K is featured from the following aspects: 1) Reliable and real-time data. The data is hourly collected from 2,130 ground weather stations covering an area of 6 million square kilometers. 2) Multivariate meteorological variables. 20 meteorological factors and 3 constants for position information are provided with a length of 40,896 time steps. 3) Applicable to diverse tasks. We conduct a set of baseline tests on time series forecasting and spatio-temporal forecasting. To the best of our knowledge, our Weather2K is the first attempt to tackle weather forecasting task by taking full advantage of the strengths of observation data from ground weather stations. Based on Weather2K, we further propose Meteorological Factors based Multi-Graph Convolution Network (MFMGCN), which can effectively construct the intrinsic correlation among geographic locations based on meteorological factors. Sufficient experiments show that MFMGCN improves both the forecasting performance and temporal robustness. We hope our Weather2K can significantly motivate researchers to develop efficient and accurate algorithms to advance the task of weather forecasting. The dataset can be available at https://github.com/bycnfz/weather2k/.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 21, 2023

AtmoRep: A stochastic model of atmosphere dynamics using large scale representation learning

The atmosphere affects humans in a multitude of ways, from loss of life due to adverse weather effects to long-term social and economic impacts on societies. Computer simulations of atmospheric dynamics are, therefore, of great importance for the well-being of our and future generations. Here, we propose AtmoRep, a novel, task-independent stochastic computer model of atmospheric dynamics that can provide skillful results for a wide range of applications. AtmoRep uses large-scale representation learning from artificial intelligence to determine a general description of the highly complex, stochastic dynamics of the atmosphere from the best available estimate of the system's historical trajectory as constrained by observations. This is enabled by a novel self-supervised learning objective and a unique ensemble that samples from the stochastic model with a variability informed by the one in the historical record. The task-independent nature of AtmoRep enables skillful results for a diverse set of applications without specifically training for them and we demonstrate this for nowcasting, temporal interpolation, model correction, and counterfactuals. We also show that AtmoRep can be improved with additional data, for example radar observations, and that it can be extended to tasks such as downscaling. Our work establishes that large-scale neural networks can provide skillful, task-independent models of atmospheric dynamics. With this, they provide a novel means to make the large record of atmospheric observations accessible for applications and for scientific inquiry, complementing existing simulations based on first principles.

  • 6 authors
·
Aug 25, 2023

Evaluating Binary Decision Biases in Large Language Models: Implications for Fair Agent-Based Financial Simulations

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly being used to simulate human-like decision making in agent-based financial market models (ABMs). As models become more powerful and accessible, researchers can now incorporate individual LLM decisions into ABM environments. However, integration may introduce inherent biases that need careful evaluation. In this paper we test three state-of-the-art GPT models for bias using two model sampling approaches: one-shot and few-shot API queries. We observe significant variations in distributions of outputs between specific models, and model sub versions, with GPT-4o-Mini-2024-07-18 showing notably better performance (32-43% yes responses) compared to GPT-4-0125-preview's extreme bias (98-99% yes responses). We show that sampling methods and model sub-versions significantly impact results: repeated independent API calls produce different distributions compared to batch sampling within a single call. While no current GPT model can simultaneously achieve a uniform distribution and Markovian properties in one-shot testing, few-shot sampling can approach uniform distributions under certain conditions. We explore the Temperature parameter, providing a definition and comparative results. We further compare our results to true random binary series and test specifically for the common human bias of Negative Recency - finding LLMs have a mixed ability to 'beat' humans in this one regard. These findings emphasise the critical importance of careful LLM integration into ABMs for financial markets and more broadly.

  • 2 authors
·
Jan 20, 2025

Machine Learning Parameterization of the Multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) Convection Scheme

Warm-sector heavy rainfall often occurs along the coast of South China, and it is usually localized and long-lasting, making it challenging to predict. High-resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are increasingly used to better resolve topographic features and forecast such high-impact weather events. However, when the grid spacing becomes comparable to the length scales of convection, known as the gray zone, the turbulent eddies in the atmospheric boundary layer are only partially resolved and parameterized to some extent. Whether using a convection parameterization (CP) scheme in the gray zone remains controversial. Scale-aware CP schemes are developed to enhance the representation of convective transport within the gray zone. The multi-scale Kain-Fritsch (MSKF) scheme includes modifications that allow for its effective implementation at a grid resolution as high as 2 km. In recent years, there has been an increasing application of machine learning (ML) models to various domains of atmospheric sciences, including the replacement of physical parameterizations with ML models. This work proposes a multi-output bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) model as a replace the scale-aware MSKF CP scheme. The Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) model is used to generate training and testing data over South China at a horizontal resolution of 5 km. Furthermore, the WRF model is coupled with the ML based CP scheme and compared with WRF simulations with original MSKF scheme. The results demonstrate that the Bi-LSTM model can achieve high accuracy, indicating the potential use of ML models to substitute the MSKF scheme in the gray zone.

  • 3 authors
·
Nov 6, 2023

Finetuning a Weather Foundation Model with Lightweight Decoders for Unseen Physical Processes

Recent advances in AI weather forecasting have led to the emergence of so-called "foundation models", typically defined by expensive pretraining and minimal fine-tuning for downstream tasks. However, in the natural sciences, a desirable foundation model should also encode meaningful statistical relationships between the underlying physical variables. This study evaluates the performance of the state-of-the-art Aurora foundation model in predicting hydrological variables, which were not considered during pretraining. We introduce a lightweight approach using shallow decoders trained on the latent representations of the pretrained model to predict these new variables. As a baseline, we compare this to fine-tuning the full model, which allows further optimization of the latent space while incorporating new variables into both inputs and outputs. The decoder-based approach requires 50% less training time and 35% less memory, while achieving strong accuracy across various hydrological variables and preserving desirable properties of the foundation model, such as autoregressive stability. Notably, decoder accuracy depends on the physical correlation between the new variables and those used during pretraining, indicating that Aurora's latent space captures meaningful physical relationships. In this sense, we argue that an important quality metric for foundation models in Earth sciences is their ability to be extended to new variables without a full fine-tuning. This provides a new perspective for making foundation models more accessible to communities with limited computational resources, while supporting broader adoption in Earth sciences.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 23, 2025

Machine learning-driven Anomaly Detection and Forecasting for Euclid Space Telescope Operations

State-of-the-art space science missions increasingly rely on automation due to spacecraft complexity and the costs of human oversight. The high volume of data, including scientific and telemetry data, makes manual inspection challenging. Machine learning offers significant potential to meet these demands. The Euclid space telescope, in its survey phase since February 2024, exemplifies this shift. Euclid's success depends on accurate monitoring and interpretation of housekeeping telemetry and science-derived data. Thousands of telemetry parameters, monitored as time series, may or may not impact the quality of scientific data. These parameters have complex interdependencies, often due to physical relationships (e.g., proximity of temperature sensors). Optimising science operations requires careful anomaly detection and identification of hidden parameter states. Moreover, understanding the interactions between known anomalies and physical quantities is crucial yet complex, as related parameters may display anomalies with varied timing and intensity. We address these challenges by analysing temperature anomalies in Euclid's telemetry from February to August 2024, focusing on eleven temperature parameters and 35 covariates. We use a predictive XGBoost model to forecast temperatures based on historical values, detecting anomalies as deviations from predictions. A second XGBoost model predicts anomalies from covariates, capturing their relationships to temperature anomalies. We identify the top three anomalies per parameter and analyse their interactions with covariates using SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), enabling rapid, automated analysis of complex parameter relationships. Our method demonstrates how machine learning can enhance telemetry monitoring, offering scalable solutions for other missions with similar data challenges.

  • 6 authors
·
Nov 8, 2024

Multi-fidelity climate model parameterization for better generalization and extrapolation

Machine-learning-based parameterizations (i.e. representation of sub-grid processes) of global climate models or turbulent simulations have recently been proposed as a powerful alternative to physical, but empirical, representations, offering a lower computational cost and higher accuracy. Yet, those approaches still suffer from a lack of generalization and extrapolation beyond the training data, which is however critical to projecting climate change or unobserved regimes of turbulence. Here we show that a multi-fidelity approach, which integrates datasets of different accuracy and abundance, can provide the best of both worlds: the capacity to extrapolate leveraging the physically-based parameterization and a higher accuracy using the machine-learning-based parameterizations. In an application to climate modeling, the multi-fidelity framework yields more accurate climate projections without requiring major increase in computational resources. Our multi-fidelity randomized prior networks (MF-RPNs) combine physical parameterization data as low-fidelity and storm-resolving historical run's data as high-fidelity. To extrapolate beyond the training data, the MF-RPNs are tested on high-fidelity warming scenarios, +4K, data. We show the MF-RPN's capacity to return much more skillful predictions compared to either low- or high-fidelity (historical data) simulations trained only on one regime while providing trustworthy uncertainty quantification across a wide range of scenarios. Our approach paves the way for the use of machine-learning based methods that can optimally leverage historical observations or high-fidelity simulations and extrapolate to unseen regimes such as climate change.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 18, 2023

Canonical Cortical Field Theories

We characterise the dynamics of neuronal activity, in terms of field theory, using neural units placed on a 2D-lattice modelling the cortical surface. The electrical activity of neuronal units was analysed with the aim of deriving a neural field model with a simple functional form that still able to predict or reproduce empirical findings. Each neural unit was modelled using a neural mass and the accompanying field theory was derived in the continuum limit. The field theory comprised coupled (real) Klein-Gordon fields, where predictions of the model fall within the range of experimental findings. These predictions included the frequency spectrum of electric activity measured from the cortex, which was derived using an equipartition of energy over eigenfunctions of the neural fields. Moreover, the neural field model was invariant, within a set of parameters, to the dynamical system used to model each neuronal mass. Specifically, topologically equivalent dynamical systems resulted in the same neural field model when connected in a lattice; indicating that the fields derived could be read as a canonical cortical field theory. We specifically investigated non-dispersive fields that provide a structure for the coding (or representation) of afferent information. Further elaboration of the ensuing neural field theory, including the effect of dispersive forces, could be of importance in the understanding of the cortical processing of information.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 20, 2023

Machine Learning Predictions of High-Curie-Temperature Materials

Technologies that function at room temperature often require magnets with a high Curie temperature, T_C, and can be improved with better materials. Discovering magnetic materials with a substantial T_C is challenging because of the large number of candidates and the cost of fabricating and testing them. Using the two largest known data sets of experimental Curie temperatures, we develop machine-learning models to make rapid T_C predictions solely based on the chemical composition of a material. We train a random forest model and a k-NN one and predict on an initial dataset of over 2,500 materials and then validate the model on a new dataset containing over 3,000 entries. The accuracy is compared for multiple compounds' representations ("descriptors") and regression approaches. A random forest model provides the most accurate predictions and is not improved by dimensionality reduction or by using more complex descriptors based on atomic properties. A random forest model trained on a combination of both datasets shows that cobalt-rich and iron-rich materials have the highest Curie temperatures for all binary and ternary compounds. An analysis of the model reveals systematic error that causes the model to over-predict low-T_C materials and under-predict high-T_C materials. For exhaustive searches to find new high-T_C materials, analysis of the learning rate suggests either that much more data is needed or that more efficient descriptors are necessary.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 13, 2023

Vision-Language Models Meet Meteorology: Developing Models for Extreme Weather Events Detection with Heatmaps

Real-time detection and prediction of extreme weather protect human lives and infrastructure. Traditional methods rely on numerical threshold setting and manual interpretation of weather heatmaps with Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which can be slow and error-prone. Our research redefines Extreme Weather Events Detection (EWED) by framing it as a Visual Question Answering (VQA) problem, thereby introducing a more precise and automated solution. Leveraging Vision-Language Models (VLM) to simultaneously process visual and textual data, we offer an effective aid to enhance the analysis process of weather heatmaps. Our initial assessment of general-purpose VLMs (e.g., GPT-4-Vision) on EWED revealed poor performance, characterized by low accuracy and frequent hallucinations due to inadequate color differentiation and insufficient meteorological knowledge. To address these challenges, we introduce ClimateIQA, the first meteorological VQA dataset, which includes 8,760 wind gust heatmaps and 254,040 question-answer pairs covering four question types, both generated from the latest climate reanalysis data. We also propose Sparse Position and Outline Tracking (SPOT), an innovative technique that leverages OpenCV and K-Means clustering to capture and depict color contours in heatmaps, providing ClimateIQA with more accurate color spatial location information. Finally, we present Climate-Zoo, the first meteorological VLM collection, which adapts VLMs to meteorological applications using the ClimateIQA dataset. Experiment results demonstrate that models from Climate-Zoo substantially outperform state-of-the-art general VLMs, achieving an accuracy increase from 0% to over 90% in EWED verification. The datasets and models in this study are publicly available for future climate science research: https://github.com/AlexJJJChen/Climate-Zoo.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 14, 2024