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Aug 7

A Dataset for Greek Traditional and Folk Music: Lyra

Studying under-represented music traditions under the MIR scope is crucial, not only for developing novel analysis tools, but also for unveiling musical functions that might prove useful in studying world musics. This paper presents a dataset for Greek Traditional and Folk music that includes 1570 pieces, summing in around 80 hours of data. The dataset incorporates YouTube timestamped links for retrieving audio and video, along with rich metadata information with regards to instrumentation, geography and genre, among others. The content has been collected from a Greek documentary series that is available online, where academics present music traditions of Greece with live music and dance performance during the show, along with discussions about social, cultural and musicological aspects of the presented music. Therefore, this procedure has resulted in a significant wealth of descriptions regarding a variety of aspects, such as musical genre, places of origin and musical instruments. In addition, the audio recordings were performed under strict production-level specifications, in terms of recording equipment, leading to very clean and homogeneous audio content. In this work, apart from presenting the dataset in detail, we propose a baseline deep-learning classification approach to recognize the involved musicological attributes. The dataset, the baseline classification methods and the models are provided in public repositories. Future directions for further refining the dataset are also discussed.

  • 5 authors
·
Nov 21, 2022

ARC-Hunyuan-Video-7B: Structured Video Comprehension of Real-World Shorts

Real-world user-generated short videos, especially those distributed on platforms such as WeChat Channel and TikTok, dominate the mobile internet. However, current large multimodal models lack essential temporally-structured, detailed, and in-depth video comprehension capabilities, which are the cornerstone of effective video search and recommendation, as well as emerging video applications. Understanding real-world shorts is actually challenging due to their complex visual elements, high information density in both visuals and audio, and fast pacing that focuses on emotional expression and viewpoint delivery. This requires advanced reasoning to effectively integrate multimodal information, including visual, audio, and text. In this work, we introduce ARC-Hunyuan-Video, a multimodal model that processes visual, audio, and textual signals from raw video inputs end-to-end for structured comprehension. The model is capable of multi-granularity timestamped video captioning and summarization, open-ended video question answering, temporal video grounding, and video reasoning. Leveraging high-quality data from an automated annotation pipeline, our compact 7B-parameter model is trained through a comprehensive regimen: pre-training, instruction fine-tuning, cold start, reinforcement learning (RL) post-training, and final instruction fine-tuning. Quantitative evaluations on our introduced benchmark ShortVid-Bench and qualitative comparisons demonstrate its strong performance in real-world video comprehension, and it supports zero-shot or fine-tuning with a few samples for diverse downstream applications. The real-world production deployment of our model has yielded tangible and measurable improvements in user engagement and satisfaction, a success supported by its remarkable efficiency, with stress tests indicating an inference time of just 10 seconds for a one-minute video on H20 GPU.

  • 18 authors
·
Jul 28, 2025 2

Enabling Self-Improving Agents to Learn at Test Time With Human-In-The-Loop Guidance

Large language model (LLM) agents often struggle in environments where rules and required domain knowledge frequently change, such as regulatory compliance and user risk screening. Current approaches, like offline fine-tuning and standard prompting, are insufficient because they cannot effectively adapt to new knowledge during actual operation. To address this limitation, we propose the Adaptive Reflective Interactive Agent (ARIA), an LLM agent framework designed specifically to continuously learn updated domain knowledge at test time. ARIA assesses its own uncertainty through structured self-dialogue, proactively identifying knowledge gaps and requesting targeted explanations or corrections from human experts. It then systematically updates an internal, timestamped knowledge repository with provided human guidance, detecting and resolving conflicting or outdated knowledge through comparisons and clarification queries. We evaluate ARIA on the realistic customer due diligence name screening task on TikTok Pay, alongside publicly available dynamic knowledge tasks. Results demonstrate significant improvements in adaptability and accuracy compared to baselines using standard offline fine-tuning and existing self-improving agents. ARIA is deployed within TikTok Pay serving over 150 million monthly active users, confirming its practicality and effectiveness for operational use in rapidly evolving environments.

  • 11 authors
·
Oct 9, 2025

HowToCaption: Prompting LLMs to Transform Video Annotations at Scale

Instructional videos are an excellent source for learning multimodal representations by leveraging video-subtitle pairs extracted with automatic speech recognition systems (ASR) from the audio signal in the videos. However, in contrast to human-annotated captions, both speech and subtitles naturally differ from the visual content of the videos and thus provide only noisy supervision for multimodal learning. As a result, large-scale annotation-free web video training data remains sub-optimal for training text-video models. In this work, we propose to leverage the capability of large language models (LLMs) to obtain fine-grained video descriptions aligned with videos. Specifically, we prompt an LLM to create plausible video descriptions based on ASR narrations of the video for a large-scale instructional video dataset. To this end, we introduce a prompting method that is able to take into account a longer text of subtitles, allowing us to capture context beyond a single sentence. To align the captions to the video temporally, we prompt the LLM to generate timestamps for each produced caption based on the subtitles. In this way, we obtain human-style video captions at scale without human supervision. We apply our method to the subtitles of the HowTo100M dataset, creating a new large-scale dataset, HowToCaption. Our evaluation shows that the resulting captions not only significantly improve the performance over many different benchmark datasets for text-video retrieval but also lead to a disentangling of textual narration from the audio, boosting performance in text-video-audio tasks.

  • 6 authors
·
Oct 7, 2023

123D: Unifying Multi-Modal Autonomous Driving Data at Scale

The pursuit of autonomous driving has produced one of the richest sensor data collections in all of robotics. However, its scale and diversity remain largely untapped. Each dataset adopts different 2D and 3D modalities, such as cameras, lidar, ego states, annotations, traffic lights, and HD maps, with different rates and synchronization schemes. They come in fragmented formats requiring complex dependencies that cannot natively coexist in the same development environment. Further, major inconsistencies in annotation conventions prevent training or measuring generalization across multiple datasets. We present 123D, an open-source framework that unifies such multi-modal driving data through a single API. To handle synchronization, we store each modality as an independent timestamped event stream with no prescribed rate, enabling synchronous or asynchronous access across arbitrary datasets. Using 123D, we consolidate eight real-world driving datasets spanning 3,300 hours and 90,000 kilometers, together with a synthetic dataset with configurable collection scripts, and provide tools for data analysis and visualization. We conduct a systematic study comparing annotation statistics and assessing each dataset's pose and calibration accuracy. Further, we showcase two applications 123D enables: cross-dataset 3D object detection transfer and reinforcement learning for planning, and offer recommendations for future directions. Code and documentation are available at https://github.com/kesai-labs/py123d.

kesai-labs KE:SAI
·
May 7

SPICE-HL3: Single-Photon, Inertial, and Stereo Camera dataset for Exploration of High-Latitude Lunar Landscapes

Exploring high-latitude lunar regions presents an extremely challenging visual environment for robots. The low sunlight elevation angle and minimal light scattering result in a visual field dominated by a high dynamic range featuring long, dynamic shadows. Reproducing these conditions on Earth requires sophisticated simulators and specialized facilities. We introduce a unique dataset recorded at the LunaLab from the SnT - University of Luxembourg, an indoor test facility designed to replicate the optical characteristics of multiple lunar latitudes. Our dataset includes images, inertial measurements, and wheel odometry data from robots navigating seven distinct trajectories under multiple illumination scenarios, simulating high-latitude lunar conditions from dawn to nighttime with and without the aid of headlights, resulting in 88 distinct sequences containing a total of 1.3M images. Data was captured using a stereo RGB-inertial sensor, a monocular monochrome camera, and for the first time, a novel single-photon avalanche diode (SPAD) camera. We recorded both static and dynamic image sequences, with robots navigating at slow (5 cm/s) and fast (50 cm/s) speeds. All data is calibrated, synchronized, and timestamped, providing a valuable resource for validating perception tasks from vision-based autonomous navigation to scientific imaging for future lunar missions targeting high-latitude regions or those intended for robots operating across perceptually degraded environments. The dataset and all supplementary material can be accessed from and found at https://github.com/spaceuma/spice-hl3.

UMASpaceRobotics UMA Space Robotics Lab
·
Jun 28, 2025

SADM: Sequence-Aware Diffusion Model for Longitudinal Medical Image Generation

Human organs constantly undergo anatomical changes due to a complex mix of short-term (e.g., heartbeat) and long-term (e.g., aging) factors. Evidently, prior knowledge of these factors will be beneficial when modeling their future state, i.e., via image generation. However, most of the medical image generation tasks only rely on the input from a single image, thus ignoring the sequential dependency even when longitudinal data is available. Sequence-aware deep generative models, where model input is a sequence of ordered and timestamped images, are still underexplored in the medical imaging domain that is featured by several unique challenges: 1) Sequences with various lengths; 2) Missing data or frame, and 3) High dimensionality. To this end, we propose a sequence-aware diffusion model (SADM) for the generation of longitudinal medical images. Recently, diffusion models have shown promising results in high-fidelity image generation. Our method extends this new technique by introducing a sequence-aware transformer as the conditional module in a diffusion model. The novel design enables learning longitudinal dependency even with missing data during training and allows autoregressive generation of a sequence of images during inference. Our extensive experiments on 3D longitudinal medical images demonstrate the effectiveness of SADM compared with baselines and alternative methods. The code is available at https://github.com/ubc-tea/SADM-Longitudinal-Medical-Image-Generation.

  • 5 authors
·
Dec 15, 2022

Perception or Prejudice: Can MLLMs Go Beyond First Impressions of Personality?

Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs) are increasingly deployed in human-facing roles where personality perception is critical, yet existing benchmarks evaluate this capability solely on numerical Big Five score prediction, leaving open whether models truly perceive personality through behavioral understanding or merely prejudge through superficial pattern matching. We address this gap with three contributions. (i) A new task: we formalize Grounded Personality Reasoning (GPR), which requires MLLMs to anchor each Big Five rating in observable evidence through a chain of rating, reasoning, and grounding. (ii) A new dataset: we release MM-OCEAN (1,104 videos, 5,320 MCQs), produced by a multi-agent pipeline with human verification, with timestamped behavioral observations, evidence-grounded trait analyses, and seven categories of cue-grounding MCQs. (iii) Benchmark and analysis: we design a three-tier evaluation (rating, reasoning, grounding) plus four sample-level failure-mode metrics: Prejudice Rate (PR), Confabulation Rate (CR), Integration-failure Rate (IR), and Holistic-grounding Rate (HR), and benchmark 27 MLLMs (13 closed, 14 open). The analysis uncovers a striking Prejudice Gap: across the field, 51% of correct ratings are not grounded in retrieved cues, and the Holistic-Grounding Rate spans only 0-33.5%. These findings expose a disconnect between getting the right score and reasoning for the right reason, charting a roadmap for grounded social cognition in MLLMs.

MOSS-Audio Technical Report

MOSS-Audio is a unified audio-language model for speech, environmental sound, and music understanding, supporting audio captioning, time-aware question answering, timestamped transcription, and audio-grounded reasoning. MOSS-Audio couples a dedicated audio encoder with a modality adapter and a large language model: the encoder produces 12.5 Hz temporal representations, the adapter projects them into the decoder space, and the decoder generates autoregressive text outputs. Two design choices are central to the system: DeepStack cross-layer feature injection, which exposes the decoder to acoustic information from multiple encoder depths, and time markers, which provide explicit temporal cues by inserting timestamp markers into the audio-token stream. At the data level, we design an event-preserving audio annotation pipeline that segments raw audio at coherent event boundaries, applies branch-specific annotation to speech, music, and general audio, and merges the results into unified captions for pretraining. The intermediate branch-specific captions are further retained to support the construction of task-oriented SFT data. The model is pretrained on large-scale audio-language data, with time-aware objectives incorporated to support temporal grounding, and then undergoes multi-stage post-training to enhance instruction following and audio-grounded reasoning. We release 4B and 8B variants in both Instruct and Thinking configurations. MOSS-Audio achieves strong performance across general audio understanding, speech captioning, ASR, and timestamped ASR, positioning it as a promising understanding foundation for future voice agents.

  • 26 authors
·
Jun 1

RAG Meets Temporal Graphs: Time-Sensitive Modeling and Retrieval for Evolving Knowledge

Knowledge is inherently time-sensitive and continuously evolves over time. Although current Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems enrich LLMs with external knowledge, they largely ignore this temporal nature. This raises two challenges for RAG. First, current RAG methods lack effective time-aware representations. Same facts of different time are difficult to distinguish with vector embeddings or conventional knowledge graphs. Second, most RAG evaluations assume a static corpus, leaving a blind spot regarding update costs and retrieval stability as knowledge evolves. To make RAG time-aware, we propose Temporal GraphRAG (TG-RAG), which models external corpora as a bi-level temporal graph consisting of a temporal knowledge graph with timestamped relations and a hierarchical time graph. Multi-granularity temporal summaries are generated for each time node to capture both key events and broader trends at that time. The design supports incremental updates by extracting new temporal facts from the incoming corpus and merging them into the existing graph. The temporal graph explicitly represents identical facts at different times as distinct edges to avoid ambiguity, and the time hierarchy graph allows only generating reports for new leaf time nodes and their ancestors, ensuring effective and efficient updates. During inference, TG-RAG dynamically retrieves a subgraph within the temporal and semantic scope of the query, enabling precise evidence gathering. Moreover, we introduce ECT-QA, a time-sensitive question-answering dataset featuring both specific and abstract queries, along with a comprehensive evaluation protocol designed to assess incremental update capabilities of RAG systems. Extensive experiments show that TG-RAG significantly outperforms existing baselines, demonstrating the effectiveness of our method in handling temporal knowledge and incremental updates.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 15, 2025

MerRec: A Large-scale Multipurpose Mercari Dataset for Consumer-to-Consumer Recommendation Systems

In the evolving e-commerce field, recommendation systems crucially shape user experience and engagement. The rise of Consumer-to-Consumer (C2C) recommendation systems, noted for their flexibility and ease of access for customer vendors, marks a significant trend. However, the academic focus remains largely on Business-to-Consumer (B2C) models, leaving a gap filled by the limited C2C recommendation datasets that lack in item attributes, user diversity, and scale. The intricacy of C2C recommendation systems is further accentuated by the dual roles users assume as both sellers and buyers, introducing a spectrum of less uniform and varied inputs. Addressing this, we introduce MerRec, the first large-scale dataset specifically for C2C recommendations, sourced from the Mercari e-commerce platform, covering millions of users and products over 6 months in 2023. MerRec not only includes standard features such as user_id, item_id, and session_id, but also unique elements like timestamped action types, product taxonomy, and textual product attributes, offering a comprehensive dataset for research. This dataset, extensively evaluated across six recommendation tasks, establishes a new benchmark for the development of advanced recommendation algorithms in real-world scenarios, bridging the gap between academia and industry and propelling the study of C2C recommendations.

  • 6 authors
·
Feb 21, 2024 1

OmniVTG: A Large-Scale Dataset and Training Paradigm for Open-World Video Temporal Grounding

Video Temporal Grounding (VTG), the task of localizing video segments from text queries, struggles in open-world settings due to limited dataset scale and semantic diversity, causing performance gaps between common and rare concepts. To overcome these limitations, we introduce OmniVTG, a new large-scale dataset for open-world VTG, coupled with a Self-Correction Chain-of-Thought (CoT) training paradigm designed to enhance the grounding capabilities of Multimodal Large Language Models (MLLMs). Our OmniVTG is constructed via a novel Semantic Coverage Iterative Expansion pipeline, which first identifies gaps in the vocabulary of existing datasets and collects videos that are highly likely to contain these target concepts. For high-quality annotation, we leverage the insight that modern MLLMs excel at dense captioning more than direct grounding and design a caption-centric data engine to prompt MLLMs to generate dense, timestamped descriptions. Beyond the dataset, we observe that simple supervised finetuning (SFT) is insufficient, as a performance gap between rare and common concepts still persists. We find that MLLMs' video understanding ability significantly surpasses their direct grounding ability. Based on this, we propose a Self-Correction Chain-of-Thought (CoT) training paradigm. We train the MLLM to first predict, then use its understanding capabilities to reflect on and refine its own predictions. This capability is instilled via a three-stage pipeline of SFT, CoT finetuning, and reinforcement learning. Extensive experiments show our approach not only excels at open-world grounding in our OmniVTG dataset but also achieves state-of-the-art zero-shot performance on four existing VTG benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/oceanflowlab/OmniVTG.

  • 5 authors
·
Apr 27

The Growing Pains of Frontier Models: When Leaderboards Stop Separating and What to Measure Next

Leaderboards rank frontier models on independent axes but do not reveal whether capabilities reinforce or trade off across releases -- and at the frontier, this interaction is the more informative signal. We decompose paired SWE-bench and GPQA Diamond scores into a population coupling trend and per-release residual (h-field) that diagnoses capability emphasis and identifies which measurement or stress test is most informative next. Across 34 models from 10 labs (2024--2026), capabilities cooperate (r = +0.72, p < 10^{-6}), but cooperation varies by lab and over time: DeepSeek reversed from reasoning-rich to coding-first (h: +11.2 to -4.7, 15.9-pp swing); Google maintains consistent reasoning emphasis; Anthropic oscillates between coding excursions and recovery. Cooperation is not static -- it cascades. Six open-weight architectures confirm a second capability transition at 30--72B, and SWE-bench is now saturating while HLE and instruction-following retain discriminatory spread -- signaling the next axis rotation. We provide a three-level playbook (locate, diagnose, rotate), a per-lab measurement-priority table, and seven falsifiable predictions with timestamped criteria for the next 12 months of frontier releases. Per-lab coupling slopes vary 5times (Google 1.15 vs. DeepSeek 0.23), quantifying how efficiently each recipe converts coding gains into reasoning. Five April 2026 releases confirm the diagnostic out of sample (r rises from +0.72 to +0.75). An interactive dashboard provides phase classification with actionable recommendations, h-field diagnostics, per-lab coupling trajectories, ODE-based scaling predictions, benchmark rotation guidance, self-steering demo, and live tracking of all seven predictions: https://zehenlabs.com/cape/.

  • 1 authors
·
May 12

ForeSea: AI Forensic Search with Multi-modal Queries for Video Surveillance

Despite decades of work, surveillance still struggles to find specific targets across long, multi-camera video. Prior methods -- tracking pipelines, CLIP based models, and VideoRAG -- require heavy manual filtering, capture only shallow attributes, and fail at temporal reasoning. Real-world searches are inherently multimodal (e.g., "When does this person join the fight?" with the person's image), yet this setting remains underexplored. Also, there are no proper benchmarks to evaluate those setting - asking video with multimodal queries. To address this gap, we introduce ForeSeaQA, a new benchmark specifically designed for video QA with image-and-text queries and timestamped annotations of key events. The dataset consists of long-horizon surveillance footage paired with diverse multimodal questions, enabling systematic evaluation of retrieval, temporal grounding, and multimodal reasoning in realistic forensic conditions. Not limited to this benchmark, we propose ForeSea, an AI forensic search system with a 3-stage, plug-and-play pipeline. (1) A tracking module filters irrelevant footage; (2) a multimodal embedding module indexes the remaining clips; and (3) during inference, the system retrieves top-K candidate clips for a Video Large Language Model (VideoLLM) to answer queries and localize events. On ForeSeaQA, ForeSea improves accuracy by 3.5% and temporal IoU by 11.0 over prior VideoRAG models. To our knowledge, ForeSeaQA is the first benchmark to support complex multimodal queries with precise temporal grounding, and ForeSea is the first VideoRAG system built to excel in this setting.

  • 11 authors
·
Mar 23

Listening with the Eyes: Benchmarking Egocentric Co-Speech Grounding across Space and Time

In situated collaboration, speakers often use intentionally underspecified deictic commands (e.g., ``pass me that''), whose referent becomes identifiable only by aligning speech with a brief co-speech pointing stroke. However, many embodied benchmarks admit language-only shortcuts, allowing MLLMs to perform well without learning the audio--visual alignment required by deictic interaction. To bridge this gap, we introduce Egocentric Co-Speech Grounding (EcoG), where grounding is executable only if an agent jointly predicts What, Where, and When. To operationalize this, we present EcoG-Bench, an evaluation-only bilingual (EN/ZH) diagnostic benchmark of 811 egocentric clips with dense spatial annotations and millisecond-level stroke supervision. It is organized under a Progressive Cognitive Evaluation protocol. Benchmarking state-of-the-art MLLMs reveals a severe executability gap: while human subjects achieve near-ceiling performance on EcoG-Bench (96.9\% strict Eco-Accuracy), the best native video-audio setting remains low (Gemini-3-Pro: 17.0\%). Moreover, in a diagnostic ablation, replacing the native video--audio interface with timestamped frame samples and externally verified ASR (with word-level timing) substantially improves the same model (17.0\%to42.9\%). Overall, EcoG-Bench provides a strict, executable testbed for event-level speech--gesture binding, and suggests that multimodal interfaces may bottleneck the observability of temporal alignment cues, independently of model reasoning.

  • 9 authors
·
Mar 8

FOS: A Large-Scale Temporal Graph Benchmark for Scientific Interdisciplinary Link Prediction

Interdisciplinary scientific breakthroughs mostly emerge unexpectedly, and forecasting the formation of novel research fields remains a major challenge. We introduce FOS (Future Of Science), a comprehensive time-aware graph-based benchmark that reconstructs annual co-occurrence graphs of 65,027 research sub-fields (spanning 19 general domains) over the period 1827-2024. In these graphs, edges denote the co-occurrence of two fields in a single publication and are timestamped with the corresponding publication year. Nodes are enriched with semantic embeddings, and edges are characterized by temporal and topological descriptors. We formulate the prediction of new field-pair linkages as a temporal link-prediction task, emphasizing the "first-time" connections that signify pioneering interdisciplinary directions. Through extensive experiments, we evaluate a suite of state-of-the-art temporal graph architectures under multiple negative-sampling regimes and show that (i) embedding long-form textual descriptions of fields significantly boosts prediction accuracy, and (ii) distinct model classes excel under different evaluation settings. Case analyses show that top-ranked link predictions on FOS align with field pairings that emerge in subsequent years of academic publications. We publicly release FOS, along with its temporal data splits and evaluation code, to establish a reproducible benchmark for advancing research in predicting scientific frontiers.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 23, 2025

EgoEMS: A High-Fidelity Multimodal Egocentric Dataset for Cognitive Assistance in Emergency Medical Services

Emergency Medical Services (EMS) are critical to patient survival in emergencies, but first responders often face intense cognitive demands in high-stakes situations. AI cognitive assistants, acting as virtual partners, have the potential to ease this burden by supporting real-time data collection and decision making. In pursuit of this vision, we introduce EgoEMS, the first end-to-end, high-fidelity, multimodal, multiperson dataset capturing over 20 hours of realistic, procedural EMS activities from an egocentric view in 233 simulated emergency scenarios performed by 62 participants, including 46 EMS professionals. Developed in collaboration with EMS experts and aligned with national standards, EgoEMS is captured using an open-source, low-cost, and replicable data collection system and is annotated with keysteps, timestamped audio transcripts with speaker diarization, action quality metrics, and bounding boxes with segmentation masks. Emphasizing realism, the dataset includes responder-patient interactions reflecting real-world emergency dynamics. We also present a suite of benchmarks for real-time multimodal keystep recognition and action quality estimation, essential for developing AI support tools for EMS. We hope EgoEMS inspires the research community to push the boundaries of intelligent EMS systems and ultimately contribute to improved patient outcomes.

  • 8 authors
·
Nov 14, 2025

JailbreaksOverTime: Detecting Jailbreak Attacks Under Distribution Shift

Safety and security remain critical concerns in AI deployment. Despite safety training through reinforcement learning with human feedback (RLHF) [ 32], language models remain vulnerable to jailbreak attacks that bypass safety guardrails. Universal jailbreaks - prefixes that can circumvent alignment for any payload - are particularly concerning. We show empirically that jailbreak detection systems face distribution shift, with detectors trained at one point in time performing poorly against newer exploits. To study this problem, we release JailbreaksOverTime, a comprehensive dataset of timestamped real user interactions containing both benign requests and jailbreak attempts collected over 10 months. We propose a two-pronged method for defenders to detect new jailbreaks and continuously update their detectors. First, we show how to use continuous learning to detect jailbreaks and adapt rapidly to new emerging jailbreaks. While detectors trained at a single point in time eventually fail due to drift, we find that universal jailbreaks evolve slowly enough for self-training to be effective. Retraining our detection model weekly using its own labels - with no new human labels - reduces the false negative rate from 4% to 0.3% at a false positive rate of 0.1%. Second, we introduce an unsupervised active monitoring approach to identify novel jailbreaks. Rather than classifying inputs directly, we recognize jailbreaks by their behavior, specifically, their ability to trigger models to respond to known-harmful prompts. This approach has a higher false negative rate (4.1%) than supervised methods, but it successfully identified some out-of-distribution attacks that were missed by the continuous learning approach.

  • 10 authors
·
Apr 27, 2025

Forecasting Clinical Risk from Textual Time Series: Structuring Narratives for Temporal AI in Healthcare

Clinical case reports encode temporal patient trajectories that are often underexploited by traditional machine learning methods relying on structured data. In this work, we introduce the forecasting problem from textual time series, where timestamped clinical findings -- extracted via an LLM-assisted annotation pipeline -- serve as the primary input for prediction. We systematically evaluate a diverse suite of models, including fine-tuned decoder-based large language models and encoder-based transformers, on tasks of event occurrence prediction, temporal ordering, and survival analysis. Our experiments reveal that encoder-based models consistently achieve higher F1 scores and superior temporal concordance for short- and long-horizon event forecasting, while fine-tuned masking approaches enhance ranking performance. In contrast, instruction-tuned decoder models demonstrate a relative advantage in survival analysis, especially in early prognosis settings. Our sensitivity analyses further demonstrate the importance of time ordering, which requires clinical time series construction, as compared to text ordering, the format of the text inputs that LLMs are classically trained on. This highlights the additional benefit that can be ascertained from time-ordered corpora, with implications for temporal tasks in the era of widespread LLM use.