Daily Papers

Scarce data and tumor heterogeneity limit patient-level cancer treatment-response prediction. Existing approaches predict response from pretreatment molecular profiles and drug representations, without explicitly modeling the molecular changes expected under treatment. We propose PerturbRx, a treatment-conditioned representation learning framework that learns intervention-induced latent transitions and uses them as patient-drug response features. PerturbRx trains a drug- and dose-conditioned transition predictor from context-matched but cell-unpaired control and treated single-cell populations, then freezes and transfers the predictor to pretreatment patient profiles without requiring post-treatment measurements. The transition is combined with patient and drug representations to predict response. Across TCGA and patient-derived xenograft benchmarks, PerturbRx achieves the strongest aggregate predictive performance among the evaluated methods. These results support perturbation-pretrained latent transitions as useful representations for patient-level drug-response prediction.

Online Surgical Phase Recognition (SPR) models can reach high frame-wise accuracy, yet their predictions often lack temporal stability, fragmenting workflow understanding and reducing the reliability of downstream assistance. We show that this instability is not random noise but arises from two mechanisms: early misclassifications corrupt temporal feature states and propagate forward to form error cascades, and phase transitions follow evidence-accumulation dynamics whereas most online SPR systems rely on memoryless frame-wise decisions, making them sensitive to transient confidence fluctuations. We propose a unified Train-Inference-Evaluation framework that explicitly stabilizes temporal inference dynamics using model-agnostic, plug-and-play components. For training, the Temporal Error-Cascade (TEC) loss suppresses error onset and mitigates forward error propagation by stabilizing temporal feature evolution. For inference, the Evidence-Gated Transition Predictor (EGTP) enforces evidence-driven state transitions, allowing phase changes only when accumulated evidence exceeds a confidence boundary. For evaluation, we introduce the Temporal Fragmentation Index (TFI), a reliability-aware metric that quantifies instability-induced temporal disagreement beyond conventional frame-wise and token-based measures. Experiments on Cholec80 and AutoLaparo across three representative backbones show that the proposed framework substantially improves temporal stability and reduces prediction fragmentation, while maintaining or modestly improving frame-wise performance.

Salient Object Ranking (SOR) aims to estimate the relative saliency order among multiple salient objects. While SOR has been extensively studied in static images, Video Salient Object Ranking (VSOR) remains largely underexplored due to the lack of effective temporal saliency modeling. In particular, existing VSOR methods rely on short input frame clips, which limits their ability to capture long-term saliency evolution and identify dynamic attention shifts. To address these challenges, we propose LoTAS, a long-term memory framework for VSOR that jointly models historical saliency states and temporal attention transitions. To model historical saliency, we propose a Temporal Context Decoder (TCD) and a Rank-aware Saliency State Encoder (RSSE). The TCD retrieves historical saliency states from memory queries to provide references to previously salient instances and long-range temporal context, while the RSSE encodes current predictions into rank-aware state embeddings and updates the memory for future frames, allowing reliable ranking cues to accumulate across long video sequences. To capture temporal attention transitions, we introduce explicit inter-frame rank-transition supervision and jointly learn a binary transition predictor as an auxiliary task alongside ordinal ranking. In addition, to address the limited video types and scene diversity in the existing VSOR dataset, we propose a challenging dataset that covers diverse video types and scenes with 124 videos and 16,610 frames. Experimental results demonstrate that our method outperforms state-of-the-art VSOR methods. We will make the code and our proposed dataset available.

Memory plays a foundational role in augmenting the reasoning, adaptability, and contextual fidelity of modern Large Language Models and Multi-Modal LLMs. As these models transition from static predictors to interactive systems capable of continual learning and personalized inference, the incorporation of memory mechanisms has emerged as a central theme in their architectural and functional evolution. This survey presents a comprehensive and structured synthesis of memory in LLMs and MLLMs, organizing the literature into a cohesive taxonomy comprising implicit, explicit, and agentic memory paradigms. Specifically, the survey delineates three primary memory frameworks. Implicit memory refers to the knowledge embedded within the internal parameters of pre-trained transformers, encompassing their capacity for memorization, associative retrieval, and contextual reasoning. Recent work has explored methods to interpret, manipulate, and reconfigure this latent memory. Explicit memory involves external storage and retrieval components designed to augment model outputs with dynamic, queryable knowledge representations, such as textual corpora, dense vectors, and graph-based structures, thereby enabling scalable and updatable interaction with information sources. Agentic memory introduces persistent, temporally extended memory structures within autonomous agents, facilitating long-term planning, self-consistency, and collaborative behavior in multi-agent systems, with relevance to embodied and interactive AI. Extending beyond text, the survey examines the integration of memory within multi-modal settings, where coherence across vision, language, audio, and action modalities is essential. Key architectural advances, benchmark tasks, and open challenges are discussed, including issues related to memory capacity, alignment, factual consistency, and cross-system interoperability.

Large video diffusion and flow models have achieved remarkable success in high-quality video generation, but their use in real-time interactive applications remains limited due to their inefficient multi-step sampling process. In this work, we present Transition Matching Distillation (TMD), a novel framework for distilling video diffusion models into efficient few-step generators. The central idea of TMD is to match the multi-step denoising trajectory of a diffusion model with a few-step probability transition process, where each transition is modeled as a lightweight conditional flow. To enable efficient distillation, we decompose the original diffusion backbone into two components: (1) a main backbone, comprising the majority of early layers, that extracts semantic representations at each outer transition step; and (2) a flow head, consisting of the last few layers, that leverages these representations to perform multiple inner flow updates. Given a pretrained video diffusion model, we first introduce a flow head to the model, and adapt it into a conditional flow map. We then apply distribution matching distillation to the student model with flow head rollout in each transition step. Extensive experiments on distilling Wan2.1 1.3B and 14B text-to-video models demonstrate that TMD provides a flexible and strong trade-off between generation speed and visual quality. In particular, TMD outperforms existing distilled models under comparable inference costs in terms of visual fidelity and prompt adherence. Project page: https://research.nvidia.com/labs/genair/tmd

Multi-agent systems can improve reliability, yet under a fixed inference budget they often help, saturate, or even collapse. We develop a minimal and calibratable theory that predicts these regimes from three binding constraints of modern agent stacks: finite context windows, lossy inter-agent communication, and shared failures among similar agents. Each leaf agent is summarized by a compute-performance scaling exponent β; communication is captured by a message-length fidelity curve γ(m); dependence is captured by an effective shared-error correlation ρ; and a context window W imposes hard fan-in limits that make hierarchy necessary. For binary success/failure tasks with majority aggregation, we prove a sharp phase transition for deep b-ary trees with correlated inputs and lossy communication: a single scalar α_ρ (combining γ(m), ρ, and fan-in b) determines whether weak signal is amplified to a nontrivial fixed point or washed out to chance. In the amplifying regime, we derive an organization exponent s and show that budgeted synergy, i.e., outperforming the best single agent under the same total budget, occurs exactly when s>β, yielding closed-form compute allocation rules and explicit budget thresholds. We further characterize saturation via a mixing depth and provide a conservative clipped predictor that remains accurate across growth and saturation. A continuous-performance warm-up gives closed-form risks for star, chain, and tree organizations, making correlation- and communication-induced floors explicit and exposing the core design trade-offs in a smooth setting. Finally, we validate the predicted phase boundaries in controlled synthetic simulations and show how the same mechanisms explain the dominant bottlenecks reported in recent large-scale matched-budget studies of LLM agent-system scaling.

Temporal motion modeling has always been a key component in multiple object tracking (MOT) which can ensure smooth trajectory movement and provide accurate positional information to enhance association precision. However, current motion models struggle to be both efficient and effective across different application scenarios. To this end, we propose TrackSSM inspired by the recently popular state space models (SSM), a unified encoder-decoder motion framework that uses data-dependent state space model to perform temporal motion of trajectories. Specifically, we propose Flow-SSM, a module that utilizes the position and motion information from historical trajectories to guide the temporal state transition of object bounding boxes. Based on Flow-SSM, we design a flow decoder. It is composed of a cascaded motion decoding module employing Flow-SSM, which can use the encoded flow information to complete the temporal position prediction of trajectories. Additionally, we propose a Step-by-Step Linear (S^2L) training strategy. By performing linear interpolation between the positions of the object in the previous frame and the current frame, we construct the pseudo labels of step-by-step linear training, ensuring that the trajectory flow information can better guide the object bounding box in completing temporal transitions. TrackSSM utilizes a simple Mamba-Block to build a motion encoder for historical trajectories, forming a temporal motion model with an encoder-decoder structure in conjunction with the flow decoder. TrackSSM is applicable to various tracking scenarios and achieves excellent tracking performance across multiple benchmarks, further extending the potential of SSM-like temporal motion models in multi-object tracking tasks. Code and models are publicly available at https://github.com/Xavier-Lin/TrackSSM.

Smooth speaker transitions are fundamental to effective conversation and rely on an interlocutor's ability to predict when to enter the conversation. This ability depends on accurately interpreting and expressing the verbal and non-verbal cues that signal when a speaker wishes to take or relinquish the floor. The process becomes even more complex in noisy, natural, multi-party settings, with multiple interlocutors available. This study models how gaze and speech, together with perceived interpersonal closeness, signal conversational floor changes in free four-person dialogue. Using the GaMMA corpus, we trained logistic regression models using interpretable, behaviourally motivated features extracted before each turn-taking event to classify floor-transfer outcomes as gaps or overlaps. Predictors included gaze features such as transition motifs and behavioural contrasts, entropy, gaze-based addressee identity, and mutual gaze, alongside speech features derived from speaker loudness, as well as perceived interpersonal closeness (IOS) between speakers. Results show that gaze features capture predictive structure, and that combining them with loudness improves performance (ROC AUC = 0.76 +- 0.04). Loudness reflected speaker control, while gaze dispersion and addressing indexed listener readiness and competitive entry. Performance remained robust across noise conditions, indicating that gaze provides a complementary, noise-resilient cue to turn-taking dynamics.

Robust robot control benefits from explicitly modeling state transitions, but video-generation world action models (WAMs) introduce substantial deployment cost. Existing latent WAMs avoid explicit future generation, but often compress predictive representations or separate predictive modeling from the representations used for action generation. We introduce JEPA-WAM, a latent WAM built in a pretrained V-JEPA space, which couples latent transition prediction with continuous action generation through a shared predictor. JEPA-WAM predicts a spatially structured joint current-future target that captures task-shared visual temporal structure between current and future observations, while preserving dense patch-level correspondence. Through the shared predictor, transition supervision directly shapes the backbone, from which dedicated representations are extracted for action prediction. The same design can also be instantiated in pretrained VLA policies while preserving their original perception and action pathways. On LIBERO-Plus, JEPA-WAM achieves 79.2%, the best result without large-scale robot-policy pretraining, while its pretrained π_{0.5} instantiation reaches 86.3%, achieving the best overall performance. Experiments on RoboTwin 2.0 and real-world bimanual manipulation further demonstrate strong generalization under visual and spatial shifts.

In Online Continual Learning (OCL) a learning system receives a stream of data and sequentially performs prediction and training steps. Important challenges in OCL are concerned with automatic adaptation to the particular non-stationary structure of the data, and with quantification of predictive uncertainty. Motivated by these challenges we introduce a probabilistic Bayesian online learning model by using a (possibly pretrained) neural representation and a state space model over the linear predictor weights. Non-stationarity over the linear predictor weights is modelled using a parameter drift transition density, parametrized by a coefficient that quantifies forgetting. Inference in the model is implemented with efficient Kalman filter recursions which track the posterior distribution over the linear weights, while online SGD updates over the transition dynamics coefficient allows to adapt to the non-stationarity seen in data. While the framework is developed assuming a linear Gaussian model, we also extend it to deal with classification problems and for fine-tuning the deep learning representation. In a set of experiments in multi-class classification using data sets such as CIFAR-100 and CLOC we demonstrate the predictive ability of the model and its flexibility to capture non-stationarity.

We introduce Leap+Verify, a framework that applies speculative execution -- predicting future model weights and validating predictions before acceptance -- to accelerate neural network training. Inspired by speculative decoding in language model inference and by the Automatically Scalable Computation (ASC) architecture for program execution, Leap+Verify decomposes training into three dynamically detected regimes (chaotic, transition, stable) using activation-space cosine similarity as a real-time Lyapunov proxy signal. Within each regime, analytic weight predictors (momentum, linear, quadratic extrapolation) attempt to forecast model parameters K training steps ahead; predictions are accepted only when validated against a held-out loss criterion. We evaluate Leap+Verify on GPT-2 124M and Qwen 2.5-1.5B trained on WikiText-103 across five random seeds, sweeping prediction depth K in {5, 10, 25, 50, 75, 100}. Momentum-based prediction (Adam moment extrapolation) fails catastrophically at both scales, with predicted losses exceeding actuals by 100-10,000x -- a universal norm explosion in optimizer-state extrapolation. Finite-difference predictors (linear, quadratic) succeed where momentum fails: at 124M, they achieve 24% strict acceptance at K=5 in stable regimes; at 1.5B, they achieve 37% strict acceptance in transition regimes. The scale-dependent finding is in regime distribution: GPT-2 124M spends 34% of training in stable regime, while Qwen 1.5B spends 64% in chaotic regime and reaches stable in only 0-2 of 40 checkpoints. Larger models are more predictable when predictable, but less often predictable -- the practical bottleneck shifts from predictor accuracy to regime availability. Cross-seed results are highly consistent (less than 1% validation loss variance), and the three-regime framework produces identical phase boundaries (plus or minus 50 steps) across seeds.

As AI systems move from generating text to accomplishing goals through sustained interaction, the ability to model environment dynamics becomes a central bottleneck. Agents that manipulate objects, navigate software, coordinate with others, or design experiments require predictive environment models, yet the term world model carries different meanings across research communities. We introduce a "levels x laws" taxonomy organized along two axes. The first defines three capability levels: L1 Predictor, which learns one-step local transition operators; L2 Simulator, which composes them into multi-step, action-conditioned rollouts that respect domain laws; and L3 Evolver, which autonomously revises its own model when predictions fail against new evidence. The second identifies four governing-law regimes: physical, digital, social, and scientific. These regimes determine what constraints a world model must satisfy and where it is most likely to fail. Using this framework, we synthesize over 400 works and summarize more than 100 representative systems spanning model-based reinforcement learning, video generation, web and GUI agents, multi-agent social simulation, and AI-driven scientific discovery. We analyze methods, failure modes, and evaluation practices across level-regime pairs, propose decision-centric evaluation principles and a minimal reproducible evaluation package, and outline architectural guidance, open problems, and governance challenges. The resulting roadmap connects previously isolated communities and charts a path from passive next-step prediction toward world models that can simulate, and ultimately reshape, the environments in which agents operate.

Previously, methods for learning marginally stable linear dynamical systems either required the transition matrix to be symmetric or incurred regret bounds that scale polynomially with the system's hidden dimension. In this work, we introduce a novel method that overcomes this trade-off, achieving dimension-free regret despite the presence of asymmetric matrices and marginal stability. Our method combines spectral filtering with linear predictors and employs Chebyshev polynomials in the complex plane to construct a novel spectral filtering basis. This construction guarantees sublinear regret in an online learning framework, without relying on any statistical or generative assumptions. Specifically, we prove that as long as the transition matrix has eigenvalues with complex component bounded by 1/poly log T, then our method achieves regret O(T^{9/10}) when compared to the best linear dynamical predictor in hindsight.

Current work on robot failure detection and correction typically operates in a post hoc manner, analyzing errors and applying corrections only after failures occur. This work introduces CycleVLA, a system that equips Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) with proactive self-correction, the capability to anticipate incipient failures and recover before they fully manifest during execution. CycleVLA achieves this by integrating a progress-aware VLA that flags critical subtask transition points where failures most frequently occur, a VLM-based failure predictor and planner that triggers subtask backtracking upon predicted failure, and a test-time scaling strategy based on Minimum Bayes Risk (MBR) decoding to improve retry success after backtracking. Extensive experiments on the LIBERO and LIBERO-Plus simulation benchmarks show that CycleVLA surpasses the state-of-the-art VLA π0.5, improves success rates by correcting execution failures across VLAs of varying capability, from under-trained ones to fully converged policies, and that MBR serves as an effective zero-shot test-time scaling strategy for VLAs. On a real robot, CycleVLA reaches a 91% average success rate on one precise and two long-horizon manipulation tasks. We further conduct stress tests with multiple manually injected perturbations (e.g., swapping in a distractor at the expected location while relocating the true target object mid-execution), where CycleVLA corrects ~80% of injected failures and maintains success rates comparable to unperturbed execution. Project Page: https://dannymcy.github.io/cyclevla/

Embodied world models have emerged as a pivotal paradigm for visual robotic decision-making and interactive environment simulation. However, conventional embodied frameworks rely on low-dimensional structured action vectors (e.g., joint angles and end-effector poses), which suffer from limited expressive capacity, poor generalization across diverse embodiments, and unnatural dynamic modeling for complex physical interactions. To address these limitations, this paper proposesiMac (Image as Action Control), a novel unified control paradigm that treats raw visual images as native action representations for embodied world models. Departing from traditional explicit kinematic action encoding, iMac formulates continuous visual manipulation as image-based action tokens, which inherently encapsulate spatial motion intentions, interactive geometric constraints and subtle physical dynamics. We construct a dual-branch embodied architecture consisting of an image-action encoder and a dynamic world predictor: the encoder compresses target-driven visual images into compact action embeddings, while the predictor learns environment transition rules conditioned on image actions to achieve high-fidelity future state prediction and closed-loop embodied control. Extensive experiments are conducted on public embodied manipulation benchmarks and real-world robotic scenarios. The results demonstrate that iMac outperforms vector-based action control baselines in prediction accuracy, task success rate and cross-scene generalization ability. Moreover, our image-action design eliminates the reliance on manually defined action spaces, realizing flexible and universal control for heterogeneous embodied agents. This work provides an innovative visual-action perspective for embodied world models, offering a simple yet effective paradigm for scalable robotic perception and manipulation.

World models must predict how an environment evolves under sequences of actions, enabling agents to compare possible futures and reason about counterfactual actions before acting. Long-horizon prediction is commonly obtained by recursively applying a one-step transition model, but intermediate errors can compound over time. Multi-step dynamics models instead condition on a sequence of future actions and predict their consequences directly, but become harder to learn as horizon grows: the model must track interacting state changes across the trajectory, endpoint supervision provides weak credit assignment, and intermediate predictions can remain plausible while losing information needed for later states. We show that these challenges can be addressed by casting the internal evolution of a multi-step transition as structured reasoning over textual world states: reasoning over sparse state changes reduces the burden of state tracking, a predictive-gain objective rewards the learned state for improving over a matched predictor that conditions on raw history instead, and intermediate predictive rewards supervise each state along the trajectory. Because these intermediate states are explicit textual representations of the world, they provide semantically meaningful targets that can be inspected, scored, and corrected during training. Across ScienceWorld, Jericho, and CEO-Bench, our approach achieves the strongest average long-horizon performance against recursive and non-recursive baselines that condition directly on raw history, with gains increasing at longer horizons. In a controlled counterfactual study, our model is also the only one with statistically significant sensitivity to future actions.

Recent work by Power et al. (2022) highlighted a surprising "grokking" phenomenon in learning arithmetic tasks: a neural net first "memorizes" the training set, resulting in perfect training accuracy but near-random test accuracy, and after training for sufficiently longer, it suddenly transitions to perfect test accuracy. This paper studies the grokking phenomenon in theoretical setups and shows that it can be induced by a dichotomy of early and late phase implicit biases. Specifically, when training homogeneous neural nets with large initialization and small weight decay on both classification and regression tasks, we prove that the training process gets trapped at a solution corresponding to a kernel predictor for a long time, and then a very sharp transition to min-norm/max-margin predictors occurs, leading to a dramatic change in test accuracy.

Critical transitions - abrupt, often irreversible changes in system dynamics - arise across human and natural systems, often with catastrophic consequences. Real-world observations of such shifts remain scarce, preventing the development of reliable early warning systems. Conventional statistical and spectral indicators, such as increasing variance, tend to fail under realistic conditions of limited data and correlated noise, whereas existing deep learning classifiers do not extrapolate beyond their training data distribution. In this work, we introduce TipPFN, an in-context learning (ICL) framework that uses a prior-data fitted network to infer a system's proximity to a critical transition. Trained on our novel synthetic data generator, which is based on canonical bifurcation scenarios coupled to diverse, randomized stochastic dynamics, TipPFN flexibly capitalizes on contexts of various sizes, complexity and dimensionalities. We demonstrate robust, state-of-the-art early detection of critical transitions in previously unseen tipping regimes, sim-to-real examples, and real-world observations in both ICL and zero-shot settings.

Foundation models are often used as fixed black-box predictors for downstream tasks with limited labeled data, but their predictions may be biased and unsafe to trust blindly. We study this setting through black-box assisted nonparametric regression: a learner observes labeled samples and can query a fixed predictor f_0, while the target f^* is close to f_0 in L_2(P_X) up to an unknown radius δ. We give a finite-sample minimax characterization showing a phase transition at δ_c(n) asymp n^{-β/(2β+d)}, with leading risk min{δ^2, n^{-2β/(2β+d)}}. We then analyze a Safe Residual Estimator: it learns a correction around f_0, initializes the residual head at zero so the initial predictor equals f_0, and uses holdout selection to revert to f_0 when the learned correction is not supported by validation data. Here, "safe" means avoiding negative transfer, i.e., performing worse than the black-box predictor alone. The estimator matches the leading minimax term up to an additive validation-selection cost. Synthetic regression experiments verify the predicted phase transition, while CIFAR-100 with CLIP and AG News with Qwen3-8B provide practice-facing evidence that the same residual-correction tradeoff is useful beyond the formal squared-loss regression setting.

A login screen that appears after a tap on Sign in is expected; the same screen after a tap on View order is an attack. For GUI agents, safety is therefore a property of the transition rather than of the screen, and a monitor that inspects only screens can be defeated by reusing a legitimate one. Judging a transition requires an expectation of what should have followed the action. Existing GUI world models provide one, but they output it as text, code, or images, so checking it against the observed screen requires a second model to judge the two. We argue that a world model meant for verification should instead predict in the space in which observations are encoded, and present LGWM, a decoder-free, action-conditioned world model that predicts the representation of the next screen directly, trained without semantic annotation on 1.85M real GUI transitions. Verification reduces to a vector comparison, and the same signal reveals whether a mismatch is harmful. We evaluate on RSWT-BENCH, a diagnostic where each credential screen appears under both a legitimate and a hijacked transition, so detectors that see only the screen are at chance by construction. The training-free score reaches 0.987 AUC at 17 ms per decision, on par with the strongest closed-source VLMs and about ten AUC points above generative GUI world models at over three orders of magnitude lower latency. The residual direction reaches 0.953 AUC at separating harmful from benign violations, where prompted VLMs are near chance. Further analyses show that the prediction is a usable future state rather than an anomaly score. World models have mostly served as simulators or planners; our results point to a third role, verification, for which predicting in representation space is the natural design.

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

A significant body of recent research in the field of Learning Analytics has focused on leveraging machine learning approaches for predicting at-risk students in order to initiate timely interventions and thereby elevate retention and completion rates. The overarching feature of the majority of these research studies has been on the science of prediction only. The component of predictive analytics concerned with interpreting the internals of the models and explaining their predictions for individual cases to stakeholders has largely been neglected. Additionally, works that attempt to employ data-driven prescriptive analytics to automatically generate evidence-based remedial advice for at-risk learners are in their infancy. eXplainable AI is a field that has recently emerged providing cutting-edge tools which support transparent predictive analytics and techniques for generating tailored advice for at-risk students. This study proposes a novel framework that unifies both transparent machine learning as well as techniques for enabling prescriptive analytics, while integrating the latest advances in large language models. This work practically demonstrates the proposed framework using predictive models for identifying at-risk learners of programme non-completion. The study then further demonstrates how predictive modelling can be augmented with prescriptive analytics on two case studies in order to generate human-readable prescriptive feedback for those who are at risk using ChatGPT.

Early warning signals have been proposed to forecast the possibility of a critical transition, such as the eutrophication of a lake, the collapse of a coral reef, or the end of a glacial period. Because such transitions often unfold on temporal and spatial scales that can be difficult to approach by experimental manipulation, research has often relied on historical observations as a source of natural experiments. Here we examine a critical difference between selecting systems for study based on the fact that we have observed a critical transition and those systems for which we wish to forecast the approach of a transition. This difference arises by conditionally selecting systems known to experience a transition of some sort and failing to account for the bias this introduces -- a statistical error often known as the Prosecutor's Fallacy. By analysing simulated systems that have experienced transitions purely by chance, we reveal an elevated rate of false positives in common warning signal statistics. We further demonstrate a model-based approach that is less subject to this bias than these more commonly used summary statistics. We note that experimental studies with replicates avoid this pitfall entirely.

Diffusion and flow matching models have significantly advanced media generation, yet their design space is well-explored, somewhat limiting further improvements. Concurrently, autoregressive (AR) models, particularly those generating continuous tokens, have emerged as a promising direction for unifying text and media generation. This paper introduces Transition Matching (TM), a novel discrete-time, continuous-state generative paradigm that unifies and advances both diffusion/flow models and continuous AR generation. TM decomposes complex generation tasks into simpler Markov transitions, allowing for expressive non-deterministic probability transition kernels and arbitrary non-continuous supervision processes, thereby unlocking new flexible design avenues. We explore these choices through three TM variants: (i) Difference Transition Matching (DTM), which generalizes flow matching to discrete-time by directly learning transition probabilities, yielding state-of-the-art image quality and text adherence as well as improved sampling efficiency. (ii) Autoregressive Transition Matching (ARTM) and (iii) Full History Transition Matching (FHTM) are partially and fully causal models, respectively, that generalize continuous AR methods. They achieve continuous causal AR generation quality comparable to non-causal approaches and potentially enable seamless integration with existing AR text generation techniques. Notably, FHTM is the first fully causal model to match or surpass the performance of flow-based methods on text-to-image task in continuous domains. We demonstrate these contributions through a rigorous large-scale comparison of TM variants and relevant baselines, maintaining a fixed architecture, training data, and hyperparameters.

Human trajectory prediction is typically posed as a zero-shot generalization problem: a predictor is learnt on a dataset of human motion in training scenes, and then deployed on unseen test scenes. While this paradigm has yielded tremendous progress, it fundamentally assumes that trends in human behavior within the deployment scene are constant over time. As such, current prediction models are unable to adapt to scene-specific transient human behaviors, such as crowds temporarily gathering to see buskers, pedestrians hurrying through the rain and avoiding puddles, or a protest breaking out. We formalize the problem of scene-specific adaptive trajectory prediction and propose a new adaptation approach inspired by prompt tuning called latent corridors. By augmenting the input of any pre-trained human trajectory predictor with learnable image prompts, the predictor can improve in the deployment scene by inferring trends from extremely small amounts of new data (e.g., 2 humans observed for 30 seconds). With less than 0.1% additional model parameters, we see up to 23.9% ADE improvement in MOTSynth simulated data and 16.4% ADE in MOT and Wildtrack real pedestrian data. Qualitatively, we observe that latent corridors imbue predictors with an awareness of scene geometry and scene-specific human behaviors that non-adaptive predictors struggle to capture. The project website can be found at https://neerja.me/atp_latent_corridors/.

Unsupervised video Object-Centric Learning (OCL) is promising as it enables object-level scene representation and dynamics modeling as we humans do. Mainstream video OCL methods adopt a recurrent architecture: An aggregator aggregates current video frame into object features, termed slots, under some queries; A transitioner transits current slots to queries for the next frame. This is an effective architecture but all existing implementations both (i1) neglect to incorporate next frame features, the most informative source for query prediction, and (i2) fail to learn transition dynamics, the knowledge essential for query prediction. To address these issues, we propose Random Slot-Feature pair for learning Query prediction (RandSF.Q): (t1) We design a new transitioner to incorporate both slots and features, which provides more information for query prediction; (t2) We train the transitioner to predict queries from slot-feature pairs randomly sampled from available recurrences, which drives it to learn transition dynamics. Experiments on scene representation demonstrate that our method surpass existing video OCL methods significantly, e.g., up to 10 points on object discovery, setting new state-of-the-art. Such superiority also benefits downstream tasks like dynamics modeling. Our core source code and training logs are available as the supplement.

Surgical future prediction, driven by real-time AI analysis of surgical video, is critical for operating room safety and efficiency. It provides actionable insights into upcoming events, their timing, and risks-enabling better resource allocation, timely instrument readiness, and early warnings for complications (e.g., bleeding, bile duct injury). Despite this need, current surgical AI research focuses on understanding what is happening rather than predicting future events. Existing methods target specific tasks in isolation, lacking unified approaches that span both short-term (action triplets, events) and long-term horizons (remaining surgery duration, phase transitions). These methods rely on coarse-grained supervision while fine-grained surgical action triplets and steps remain underexplored. Furthermore, methods based only on future feature prediction struggle to generalize across different surgical contexts and procedures. We address these limits by reframing surgical future prediction as state-change learning. Rather than forecasting raw observations, our approach classifies state transitions between current and future timesteps. We introduce SurgFUTR, implementing this through a teacher-student architecture. Video clips are compressed into state representations via Sinkhorn-Knopp clustering; the teacher network learns from both current and future clips, while the student network predicts future states from current videos alone, guided by our Action Dynamics (ActDyn) module. We establish SFPBench with five prediction tasks spanning short-term (triplets, events) and long-term (remaining surgery duration, phase and step transitions) horizons. Experiments across four datasets and three procedures show consistent improvements. Cross-procedure transfer validates generalizability.

Predictive process monitoring is a process mining task aimed at forecasting information about a running process trace, such as the most correct next activity to be executed. In medical domains, predictive process monitoring can provide valuable decision support in atypical and nontrivial situations. Decision support and quality assessment in medicine cannot ignore domain knowledge, in order to be grounded on all the available information (which is not limited to data) and to be really acceptable by end users. In this paper, we propose a predictive process monitoring approach relying on the use of a {\em transformer}, a deep learning architecture based on the attention mechanism. A major contribution of our work lies in the incorporation of ontological domain-specific knowledge, carried out through a graph positional encoding technique. The paper presents and discusses the encouraging experimental result we are collecting in the domain of stroke management.

A fundamental dilemma in generative modeling persists: iterative diffusion models achieve outstanding fidelity, but at a significant computational cost, while efficient few-step alternatives are constrained by a hard quality ceiling. This conflict between generation steps and output quality arises from restrictive training objectives that focus exclusively on either infinitesimal dynamics (PF-ODEs) or direct endpoint prediction. We address this challenge by introducing an exact, continuous-time dynamics equation that analytically defines state transitions across any finite time interval. This leads to a novel generative paradigm, Transition Models (TiM), which adapt to arbitrary-step transitions, seamlessly traversing the generative trajectory from single leaps to fine-grained refinement with more steps. Despite having only 865M parameters, TiM achieves state-of-the-art performance, surpassing leading models such as SD3.5 (8B parameters) and FLUX.1 (12B parameters) across all evaluated step counts. Importantly, unlike previous few-step generators, TiM demonstrates monotonic quality improvement as the sampling budget increases. Additionally, when employing our native-resolution strategy, TiM delivers exceptional fidelity at resolutions up to 4096x4096.

Many Multi-Object Tracking (MOT) approaches exploit motion information to associate all the detected objects across frames. However, many methods that rely on filtering-based algorithms, such as the Kalman Filter, often work well in linear motion scenarios but struggle to accurately predict the locations of objects undergoing complex and non-linear movements. To tackle these scenarios, we propose a motion-based MOT approach with an enhanced temporal motion predictor, ETTrack. Specifically, the motion predictor integrates a transformer model and a Temporal Convolutional Network (TCN) to capture short-term and long-term motion patterns, and it predicts the future motion of individual objects based on the historical motion information. Additionally, we propose a novel Momentum Correction Loss function that provides additional information regarding the motion direction of objects during training. This allows the motion predictor rapidly adapt to motion variations and more accurately predict future motion. Our experimental results demonstrate that ETTrack achieves a competitive performance compared with state-of-the-art trackers on DanceTrack and SportsMOT, scoring 56.4% and 74.4% in HOTA metrics, respectively.

Deep neural networks are often applied to medical images to automate the problem of medical diagnosis. However, a more clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease. Current methods for prognosis or disease trajectory forecasting often require domain knowledge and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many prediction problem. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner -- we predict prognosis with two transformer-based components that share information with each other. The first transformer in this framework aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second one leverages its internal states as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary clinical data. The temporal nature of the problem is modeled within the transformer states, allowing us to treat the forecasting problem as a multi-task classification, for which we propose a novel loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes and forecasting Alzheimer's disease clinical status directly from raw multi-modal data. The proposed method outperforms multiple state-of-the-art baselines with respect to performance and calibration, both of which are needed for real-world applications. An open-source implementation of our method is made publicly available at https://github.com/Oulu-IMEDS/CLIMATv2.

In this paper, we tackle the important yet under-investigated problem of making long-horizon prediction of event sequences. Existing state-of-the-art models do not perform well at this task due to their autoregressive structure. We propose HYPRO, a hybridly normalized probabilistic model that naturally fits this task: its first part is an autoregressive base model that learns to propose predictions; its second part is an energy function that learns to reweight the proposals such that more realistic predictions end up with higher probabilities. We also propose efficient training and inference algorithms for this model. Experiments on multiple real-world datasets demonstrate that our proposed HYPRO model can significantly outperform previous models at making long-horizon predictions of future events. We also conduct a range of ablation studies to investigate the effectiveness of each component of our proposed methods.

Evaluating neural network performance is critical to deep neural network design but a costly procedure. Neural predictors provide an efficient solution by treating architectures as samples and learning to estimate their performance on a given task. However, existing predictors are task-dependent, predominantly estimating neural network performance on image classification benchmarks. They are also search-space dependent; each predictor is designed to make predictions for a specific architecture search space with predefined topologies and set of operations. In this paper, we propose a novel All-in-One Predictor (AIO-P), which aims to pretrain neural predictors on architecture examples from multiple, separate computer vision (CV) task domains and multiple architecture spaces, and then transfer to unseen downstream CV tasks or neural architectures. We describe our proposed techniques for general graph representation, efficient predictor pretraining and knowledge infusion techniques, as well as methods to transfer to downstream tasks/spaces. Extensive experimental results show that AIO-P can achieve Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Spearman's Rank Correlation (SRCC) below 1% and above 0.5, respectively, on a breadth of target downstream CV tasks with or without fine-tuning, outperforming a number of baselines. Moreover, AIO-P can directly transfer to new architectures not seen during training, accurately rank them and serve as an effective performance estimator when paired with an algorithm designed to preserve performance while reducing FLOPs.

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either predict or choose to defer the decision to a downstream expert. Given only samples of the expert's decisions, we give a procedure based on learning a classifier and a rejector and analyze it theoretically. Our approach is based on a novel reduction to cost sensitive learning where we give a consistent surrogate loss for cost sensitive learning that generalizes the cross entropy loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of experimental tasks.

Conditional diffusion models have shown remarkable performance in various generative tasks, but training them requires large-scale datasets that often contain noise in conditional inputs, a.k.a. noisy labels. This noise leads to condition mismatch and quality degradation of generated data. This paper proposes Transition-aware weighted Denoising Score Matching (TDSM) for training conditional diffusion models with noisy labels, which is the first study in the line of diffusion models. The TDSM objective contains a weighted sum of score networks, incorporating instance-wise and time-dependent label transition probabilities. We introduce a transition-aware weight estimator, which leverages a time-dependent noisy-label classifier distinctively customized to the diffusion process. Through experiments across various datasets and noisy label settings, TDSM improves the quality of generated samples aligned with given conditions. Furthermore, our method improves generation performance even on prevalent benchmark datasets, which implies the potential noisy labels and their risk of generative model learning. Finally, we show the improved performance of TDSM on top of conventional noisy label corrections, which empirically proving its contribution as a part of label-noise robust generative models. Our code is available at: https://github.com/byeonghu-na/tdsm.

Human trajectory prediction is a practical task of predicting the future positions of pedestrians on the road, which typically covers all temporal ranges from short-term to long-term within a trajectory. However, existing works attempt to address the entire trajectory prediction with a singular, uniform training paradigm, neglecting the distinction between short-term and long-term dynamics in human trajectories. To overcome this limitation, we introduce a novel Progressive Pretext Task learning (PPT) framework, which progressively enhances the model's capacity of capturing short-term dynamics and long-term dependencies for the final entire trajectory prediction. Specifically, we elaborately design three stages of training tasks in the PPT framework. In the first stage, the model learns to comprehend the short-term dynamics through a stepwise next-position prediction task. In the second stage, the model is further enhanced to understand long-term dependencies through a destination prediction task. In the final stage, the model aims to address the entire future trajectory task by taking full advantage of the knowledge from previous stages. To alleviate the knowledge forgetting, we further apply a cross-task knowledge distillation. Additionally, we design a Transformer-based trajectory predictor, which is able to achieve highly efficient two-step reasoning by integrating a destination-driven prediction strategy and a group of learnable prompt embeddings. Extensive experiments on popular benchmarks have demonstrated that our proposed approach achieves state-of-the-art performance with high efficiency. Code is available at https://github.com/iSEE-Laboratory/PPT.

A central hope behind process supervision is that models can expose intermediate variables that matter for their later behavior. For this to help with alignment, a scratchpad must be tied to the computation: when the model writes a state, later steps should compute from that state. To test this requirement, we use a controlled state-tracking task with a known update rule, comparing models trained to report only the final state with models trained to write intermediate states before giving the final answer. At evaluation, we edit the internal representation of one written state while leaving the visible scratchpad text fixed. Because the transition rule is known, the edit has a single correct downstream consequence. In Qwen2.5-Coder-7B, the state-writing model predicts the next phase bit implied by the edited state on 80% and 91% of held-out examples across the two task variants, while pretrained and final-answer-only controls remain near baseline. Additional controls rule out generic next-token steering and copying another continuation: the prediction depends on both the edited state and the current move. The same causal-use pattern replicates across model families. Together, these results suggest a sharper goal for scratchpad oversight: not just to make intermediate reasoning legible, but to train written states that the model uses as part of its computation.

Heterogeneity in sensors and actuators across environments poses a significant challenge to building large-scale pre-trained world models on top of this low-dimensional sensor information. In this work, we explore pre-training world models for heterogeneous environments by addressing key transfer barriers in both data diversity and model flexibility. We introduce UniTraj, a unified dataset comprising over one million trajectories from 80 environments, designed to scale data while preserving critical diversity. Additionally, we propose TrajWorld, a novel architecture capable of flexibly handling varying sensor and actuator information and capturing environment dynamics in-context. Pre-training TrajWorld on UniTraj demonstrates significant improvements in transition prediction and achieves a new state-of-the-art for off-policy evaluation. To the best of our knowledge, this work, for the first time, demonstrates the transfer benefits of world models across heterogeneous and complex control environments.

Conformal predictors are set predictors that are automatically valid in the sense of having coverage probability equal to or exceeding a given confidence level. Inductive conformal predictors are a computationally efficient version of conformal predictors satisfying the same property of validity. However, inductive conformal predictors have been only known to control unconditional coverage probability. This paper explores various versions of conditional validity and various ways to achieve them using inductive conformal predictors and their modifications.

Nowadays, time series forecasting is predominantly approached through the end-to-end training of deep learning architectures using error-based objectives. While this is effective at minimizing average loss, it encourages the encoder to discard informative yet extreme patterns. This results in smooth predictions and temporal representations that poorly capture salient dynamics. To address this issue, we propose ReGuider, a plug-in method that can be seamlessly integrated into any forecasting architecture. ReGuider leverages pretrained time series foundation models as semantic teachers. During training, the input sequence is processed together by the target forecasting model and the pretrained model. Rather than using the pretrained model's outputs directly, we extract its intermediate embeddings, which are rich in temporal and semantic information, and align them with the target model's encoder embeddings through representation-level supervision. This alignment process enables the encoder to learn more expressive temporal representations, thereby improving the accuracy of downstream forecasting. Extensive experimentation across diverse datasets and architectures demonstrates that our ReGuider consistently improves forecasting performance, confirming its effectiveness and versatility.

For learning with noisy labels, the transition matrix, which explicitly models the relation between noisy label distribution and clean label distribution, has been utilized to achieve the statistical consistency of either the classifier or the risk. Previous researches have focused more on how to estimate this transition matrix well, rather than how to utilize it. We propose good utilization of the transition matrix is crucial and suggest a new utilization method based on resampling, coined RENT. Specifically, we first demonstrate current utilizations can have potential limitations for implementation. As an extension to Reweighting, we suggest the Dirichlet distribution-based per-sample Weight Sampling (DWS) framework, and compare reweighting and resampling under DWS framework. With the analyses from DWS, we propose RENT, a REsampling method with Noise Transition matrix. Empirically, RENT consistently outperforms existing transition matrix utilization methods, which includes reweighting, on various benchmark datasets. Our code is available at https://github.com/BaeHeeSun/RENT.

Background. LLM outputs are highly sensitive to prompt formulation: small wording changes can substantially affect output quality. This matters in software engineering, where prompts guide requirements analysis, code generation, and artefact synthesis. Poor formulations yield unreliable artefacts, yet practitioners lack principled ways to assess a prompt before inference, making selection depend on costly LLM calls and trial-and-error refinement. Aims. We investigate whether measurable linguistic properties of prompts can predict LLM performance before inference, enabling low-cost prompt selection and refinement, validated on binary requirements classification targeting F1, F2, precision, and recall. Method. We generate 9,000 linguistically controlled prompt variants from 100 initial prompts by varying 30 linguistic metrics, evaluated with five open-source LLMs on 625 annotated requirements. Regression predictors are trained via stratified 10-fold cross-validation with permutation-based significance testing; feature importance analysis identifies cross-LLM and model-specific predictors. Results. Linguistic features significantly predict prompt performance across all targets (R2 in [0.38,0.42], q<0.05). Syntactic and morphosyntactic features drive most predictive signal; cross-LLM predictors include compound dependency distribution, conjunction density, and word/sentence length, reflecting sensitivity to domain vocabulary and complex structures. Conclusions. Results suggest practical implications for prompt engineering, including overlap between linguistic patterns that reduce LLM performance and those that increase human comprehension difficulty, and the irrelevance of lexical variety as a quality dimension. More broadly, linguistic profiling combined with standard regression provides an effective, interpretable, low-cost prior before costly optimisation pipelines.

Under standard graphical assumptions, the Markov boundary of a target variable is the smallest set of features that renders every other feature redundant. Once the boundary is observed, the target is conditionally independent of the rest of the table. This is a tempting object for tabular prediction, since it names exactly the columns a model should need. Yet modern regressors are still trained on the full feature set. We ask whether the Markov boundary is genuinely useful for prediction on SCM3K, a 3,450-task synthetic SCM benchmark with feature counts from 40 to 1000 and six SCM families, evaluated with six regressors. The answer is more nuanced than the theory suggests. Restricting a regressor to the oracle boundary often improves prediction substantially, and the improvement grows as the feature space becomes larger and sparser. But the natural pipeline of recovering the boundary with causal discovery and training on the recovered mask does not deliver. Existing estimators exhaust the compute budget before reaching the regime where the boundary helps most, and even where they run they rarely beat the full feature set. We trace this to three causes. Discovery optimizes structural recovery rather than prediction. False negatives and false positives carry sharply asymmetric predictive cost. The exact boundary is only one of many feature sets that beat all features. We then develop what these facts imply for prediction-aligned feature selection and for tabular models that learn to use causal structure.

Process analytics is an umbrella of data-driven techniques which includes making predictions for individual process instances or overall process models. At the instance level, various novel techniques have been recently devised, tackling next activity, remaining time, and outcome prediction. At the model level, there is a notable void. It is the ambition of this paper to fill this gap. To this end, we develop a technique to forecast the entire process model from historical event data. A forecasted model is a will-be process model representing a probable future state of the overall process. Such a forecast helps to investigate the consequences of drift and emerging bottlenecks. Our technique builds on a representation of event data as multiple time series, each capturing the evolution of a behavioural aspect of the process model, such that corresponding forecasting techniques can be applied. Our implementation demonstrates the accuracy of our technique on real-world event log data.

We propose Framer for interactive frame interpolation, which targets producing smoothly transitioning frames between two images as per user creativity. Concretely, besides taking the start and end frames as inputs, our approach supports customizing the transition process by tailoring the trajectory of some selected keypoints. Such a design enjoys two clear benefits. First, incorporating human interaction mitigates the issue arising from numerous possibilities of transforming one image to another, and in turn enables finer control of local motions. Second, as the most basic form of interaction, keypoints help establish the correspondence across frames, enhancing the model to handle challenging cases (e.g., objects on the start and end frames are of different shapes and styles). It is noteworthy that our system also offers an "autopilot" mode, where we introduce a module to estimate the keypoints and refine the trajectory automatically, to simplify the usage in practice. Extensive experimental results demonstrate the appealing performance of Framer on various applications, such as image morphing, time-lapse video generation, cartoon interpolation, etc. The code, the model, and the interface will be released to facilitate further research.

The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction and performance is widely acknowledged, which highlights the importance of providing workers with next steps at the right time in their career. This task of predicting the next step in a career is known as career path prediction, and has diverse applications such as turnover prevention and internal job mobility. Existing methods to career path prediction rely on large amounts of private career history data to model the interactions between job titles and companies. We propose leveraging the unexplored textual descriptions that are part of work experience sections in resumes. We introduce a structured dataset of 2,164 anonymized career histories, annotated with ESCO occupation labels. Based on this dataset, we present a novel representation learning approach, CareerBERT, specifically designed for work history data. We develop a skill-based model and a text-based model for career path prediction, which achieve 35.24% and 39.61% recall@10 respectively on our dataset. Finally, we show that both approaches are complementary as a hybrid approach achieves the strongest result with 43.01% recall@10.

Transformers for time series forecasting mainly model time series from limited or fixed scales, making it challenging to capture different characteristics spanning various scales. We propose Pathformer, a multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways. It integrates both temporal resolution and temporal distance for multi-scale modeling. Multi-scale division divides the time series into different temporal resolutions using patches of various sizes. Based on the division of each scale, dual attention is performed over these patches to capture global correlations and local details as temporal dependencies. We further enrich the multi-scale Transformer with adaptive pathways, which adaptively adjust the multi-scale modeling process based on the varying temporal dynamics of the input, improving the accuracy and generalization of Pathformer. Extensive experiments on eleven real-world datasets demonstrate that Pathformer not only achieves state-of-the-art performance by surpassing all current models but also exhibits stronger generalization abilities under various transfer scenarios. The code is made available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/pathformer.

Real-world time-series forecasting is rarely a one-shot model invocation: practitioners must formulate tasks, connect data and models, incorporate domain expertise, assess prediction plausibility, and communicate uncertainty. Specialized forecasting models provide strong numerical predictions but usually operate in fixed pipelines, while general-purpose large language model (LLM) agents often lack forecasting-specific checks, constraints, and stopping rules. We present CastClaw, a human-in-the-loop autonomous forecasting system built through forecasting-oriented harness engineering. CastClaw connects data, specialized models, analytical tools, user input, and a versioned execution record in one runtime. Users specify the target, horizon, constraints, and hypotheses in natural language. Starting from a supplied or model-generated forecast, CastClaw checks temporal patterns and user constraints; when evidence is missing, it retrieves context, runs an analysis or another model, or asks the user. It then keeps, revises, or escalates the result under explicit stopping conditions. The output contains the final forecast and an execution report recording inputs, evidence, actions, and revisions. In this five-dataset electricity-price setting, CastClaw reports the lowest point-estimate MSE and MAE among 16 baselines. A Nord Pool case demonstrates the inspectable workflow. CastClaw was also validated offline on provincial electricity-load data from North China covering January--June 2026.

Weather forecasting is a fundamental problem for anticipating and mitigating the impacts of climate change. Recently, data-driven approaches for weather forecasting based on deep learning have shown great promise, achieving accuracies that are competitive with operational systems. However, those methods often employ complex, customized architectures without sufficient ablation analysis, making it difficult to understand what truly contributes to their success. Here we introduce Stormer, a simple transformer model that achieves state-of-the-art performance on weather forecasting with minimal changes to the standard transformer backbone. We identify the key components of Stormer through careful empirical analyses, including weather-specific embedding, randomized dynamics forecast, and pressure-weighted loss. At the core of Stormer is a randomized forecasting objective that trains the model to forecast the weather dynamics over varying time intervals. During inference, this allows us to produce multiple forecasts for a target lead time and combine them to obtain better forecast accuracy. On WeatherBench 2, Stormer performs competitively at short to medium-range forecasts and outperforms current methods beyond 7 days, while requiring orders-of-magnitude less training data and compute. Additionally, we demonstrate Stormer's favorable scaling properties, showing consistent improvements in forecast accuracy with increases in model size and training tokens. Code and checkpoints are available at https://github.com/tung-nd/stormer.

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth--death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

Longitudinal clinical notes contain rich evidence of how patients evolve over time, but converting this signal into training supervision for clinical prediction remains challenging. We extend Foresight Learning to clinical prediction by converting time-ordered MIMIC-III notes into examples consisting of past patient context, a natural-language question about a possible future event, and a label resolved from later documentation. This process yields 6,900 prediction examples from 702 admissions across medications, procedures, organ support, microbiology, and mortality. A small LoRA adapter trained on these examples improves over the prompted base model, reducing expected calibration error from 0.1269 to 0.0398 and Brier score from 0.199 to 0.145, while slightly outperforming GPT-5 point estimates on held-out questions. The approach enables reusable clinical prediction supervision from longitudinal notes without hand-engineered structured features or endpoint-specific classifiers.

With the rapid advancement of Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs), generative recommendation has shown great potential in enhancing both the accuracy and semantic understanding of modern recommender systems. Compared to LLMs, the Decision Transformer (DT) is a lightweight generative model applied to sequential recommendation tasks. However, DT faces challenges in trajectory stitching, often producing suboptimal trajectories. Moreover, due to the high dimensionality of user states and the vast state space inherent in recommendation scenarios, DT can incur significant computational costs and struggle to learn effective state representations. To overcome these issues, we propose a novel Temporal Advantage Decision Transformer with Contrastive State Abstraction (TADT-CSA) model. Specifically, we combine the conventional Return-To-Go (RTG) signal with a novel temporal advantage (TA) signal that encourages the model to capture both long-term returns and their sequential trend. Furthermore, we integrate a contrastive state abstraction module into the DT framework to learn more effective and expressive state representations. Within this module, we introduce a TA-conditioned State Vector Quantization (TAC-SVQ) strategy, where the TA score guides the state codebooks to incorporate contextual token information. Additionally, a reward prediction network and a contrastive transition prediction (CTP) network are employed to ensure the state codebook preserves both the reward information of the current state and the transition information between adjacent states. Empirical results on both public datasets and an online recommendation system demonstrate the effectiveness of the TADT-CSA model and its superiority over baseline methods.

Time series forecasting is central to decision-making in domains as diverse as energy, finance, climate, and public health. In practice, forecasters face thousands of short, noisy series that vary in frequency, quality, and horizon, where the dominant cost lies not in model fitting, but in the labor-intensive preprocessing, validation, and ensembling required to obtain reliable predictions. Prevailing statistical and deep learning models are tailored to specific datasets or domains and generalize poorly. A general, domain-agnostic framework that minimizes human intervention is urgently in demand. In this paper, we introduce TimeSeriesScientist (TSci), the first LLM-driven agentic framework for general time series forecasting. The framework comprises four specialized agents: Curator performs LLM-guided diagnostics augmented by external tools that reason over data statistics to choose targeted preprocessing; Planner narrows the hypothesis space of model choice by leveraging multi-modal diagnostics and self-planning over the input; Forecaster performs model fitting and validation and, based on the results, adaptively selects the best model configuration as well as ensemble strategy to make final predictions; and Reporter synthesizes the whole process into a comprehensive, transparent report. With transparent natural-language rationales and comprehensive reports, TSci transforms the forecasting workflow into a white-box system that is both interpretable and extensible across tasks. Empirical results on eight established benchmarks demonstrate that TSci consistently outperforms both statistical and LLM-based baselines, reducing forecast error by an average of 10.4% and 38.2%, respectively. Moreover, TSci produces a clear and rigorous report that makes the forecasting workflow more transparent and interpretable.

Predictive models play a crucial role in the financial industry, enabling risk prediction, fraud detection, and personalized recommendations, where slight changes in core model performance can result in billions of dollars in revenue or losses. While financial institutions have access to enormous amounts of user data (e.g., bank transactions, in-app events, and customer support logs), leveraging this data effectively remains challenging due to its complexity and scale. Thus, in many financial institutions, most production models follow traditional machine learning (ML) approaches by converting unstructured data into manually engineered tabular features. Conversely, other domains (e.g., natural language processing) have effectively utilized self-supervised learning (SSL) to learn rich representations from raw data, removing the need for manual feature extraction. In this paper, we investigate using transformer-based representation learning models for transaction data, hypothesizing that these models, trained on massive data, can provide a novel and powerful approach to understanding customer behavior. We propose a new method enabling the use of SSL with transaction data by adapting transformer-based models to handle both textual and structured attributes. Our approach, denoted nuFormer, includes an end-to-end fine-tuning method that integrates user embeddings with existing tabular features. Our experiments demonstrate improvements for large-scale recommendation problems at Nubank. Notably, these gains are achieved solely through enhanced representation learning rather than incorporating new data sources.

Catastrophic regime shifts in complex natural systems may be averted through advanced detection. Recent work has provided a proof-of-principle that many systems approaching a catastrophic transition may be identified through the lens of early warning indicators such as rising variance or increased return times. Despite widespread appreciation of the difficulties and uncertainty involved in such forecasts, proposed methods hardly ever characterize their expected error rates. Without the benefits of replicates, controls, or hindsight, applications of these approaches must quantify how reliable different indicators are in avoiding false alarms, and how sensitive they are to missing subtle warning signs. We propose a model based approach in order to quantify this trade-off between reliability and sensitivity and allow comparisons between different indicators. We show these error rates can be quite severe for common indicators even under favorable assumptions, and also illustrate how a model-based indicator can improve this performance. We demonstrate how the performance of an early warning indicator varies in different data sets, and suggest that uncertainty quantification become a more central part of early warning predictions.

Seamless human-robot manipulation in close proximity relies on accurate forecasts of human motion. While there has been significant progress in learning forecast models at scale, when applied to manipulation tasks, these models accrue high errors at critical transition points leading to degradation in downstream planning performance. Our key insight is that instead of predicting the most likely human motion, it is sufficient to produce forecasts that capture how future human motion would affect the cost of a robot's plan. We present ManiCast, a novel framework that learns cost-aware human forecasts and feeds them to a model predictive control planner to execute collaborative manipulation tasks. Our framework enables fluid, real-time interactions between a human and a 7-DoF robot arm across a number of real-world tasks such as reactive stirring, object handovers, and collaborative table setting. We evaluate both the motion forecasts and the end-to-end forecaster-planner system against a range of learned and heuristic baselines while additionally contributing new datasets. We release our code and datasets at https://portal-cornell.github.io/manicast/.

Next POI recommendation intends to forecast users' immediate future movements given their current status and historical information, yielding great values for both users and service providers. However, this problem is perceptibly complex because various data trends need to be considered together. This includes the spatial locations, temporal contexts, user's preferences, etc. Most existing studies view the next POI recommendation as a sequence prediction problem while omitting the collaborative signals from other users. Instead, we propose a user-agnostic global trajectory flow map and a novel Graph Enhanced Transformer model (GETNext) to better exploit the extensive collaborative signals for a more accurate next POI prediction, and alleviate the cold start problem in the meantime. GETNext incorporates the global transition patterns, user's general preference, spatio-temporal context, and time-aware category embeddings together into a transformer model to make the prediction of user's future moves. With this design, our model outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with a large margin and also sheds light on the cold start challenges within the spatio-temporal involved recommendation problems.

World models enable agents to anticipate the effects of their actions by internalizing environment dynamics. In enterprise systems, however, these dynamics are often defined by tenant-specific business logic that varies across deployments and evolves over time, making models trained on historical transitions brittle under deployment shift. We ask a question the world-models literature has not addressed: when the rules can be read at inference time, does an agent still need to learn them? We argue, and demonstrate empirically, that in settings where transition dynamics are configurable and readable, runtime discovery complements offline training by grounding predictions in the active system instance. We propose enterprise discovery agents, which recover relevant transition dynamics at runtime by reading the system's configuration rather than relying solely on internalized representations. We introduce CascadeBench, a reasoning-focused benchmark for enterprise cascade prediction that adopts the evaluation methodology of World of Workflows on diverse synthetic environments, and use it together with deployment-shift evaluation to show that offline-trained world models can perform well in-distribution but degrade as dynamics change, whereas discovery-based agents are more robust under shift by grounding their predictions in the current instance. Our findings suggest that, in configurable enterprise environments, agents should not rely solely on fixed internalized dynamics, but should incorporate mechanisms for discovering relevant transition logic at runtime.

We present Timer-XL, a generative Transformer for unified time series forecasting. To uniformly predict 1D and 2D time series, we generalize next token prediction, predominantly adopted for causal generation of 1D sequences, to multivariate next token prediction. The proposed paradigm uniformly formulates various forecasting scenarios as a long-context generation problem. We opt for the generative Transformer, which can capture global-range and causal dependencies while providing contextual flexibility, to implement unified forecasting on univariate series characterized by non-stationarity, multivariate time series with complicated dynamics and correlations, and covariate-informed contexts that include both endogenous and exogenous variables. Technically, we propose a universal TimeAttention to facilitate generative Transformers on time series, which can effectively capture fine-grained intra- and inter-series dependencies of flattened time series tokens (patches) and is further strengthened by position embeddings in both temporal and variable dimensions. Timer-XL achieves state-of-the-art performance across challenging forecasting benchmarks through a unified approach. As a large time series model, it demonstrates notable model transferability by large-scale pre-training, as well as contextual flexibility in token lengths, positioning it as a one-for-all forecaster.

Time series forecasting always faces the challenge of concept drift, where data distributions evolve over time, leading to a decline in forecast model performance. Existing solutions are based on online learning, which continually organize recent time series observations as new training samples and update model parameters according to the forecasting feedback on recent data. However, they overlook a critical issue: obtaining ground-truth future values of each sample should be delayed until after the forecast horizon. This delay creates a temporal gap between the training samples and the test sample. Our empirical analysis reveals that the gap can introduce concept drift, causing forecast models to adapt to outdated concepts. In this paper, we present Proceed, a novel proactive model adaptation framework for online time series forecasting. Proceed first estimates the concept drift between the recently used training samples and the current test sample. It then employs an adaptation generator to efficiently translate the estimated drift into parameter adjustments, proactively adapting the model to the test sample. To enhance the generalization capability of the framework, Proceed is trained on synthetic diverse concept drifts. Extensive experiments on five real-world datasets across various forecast models demonstrate that Proceed brings more performance improvements than the state-of-the-art online learning methods, significantly facilitating forecast models' resilience against concept drifts. Code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-DMTai/OnlineTSF.

Detection of video shot transition is a crucial pre-processing step in video analysis. Previous studies are restricted on detecting sudden content changes between frames through similarity measurement and multi-scale operations are widely utilized to deal with transitions of various lengths. However, localization of gradual transitions are still under-explored due to the high visual similarity between adjacent frames. Cut shot transitions are abrupt semantic breaks while gradual shot transitions contain low-level spatial-temporal patterns caused by video effects in addition to the gradual semantic breaks, e.g. dissolve. In order to address the problem, we propose a structured network which is able to detect these two shot transitions using targeted models separately. Considering speed performance trade-offs, we design a smart framework. With one TITAN GPU, the proposed method can achieve a 30\(\times\) real-time speed. Experiments on public TRECVID07 and RAI databases show that our method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods. In order to train a high-performance shot transition detector, we contribute a new database ClipShots, which contains 128636 cut transitions and 38120 gradual transitions from 4039 online videos. ClipShots intentionally collect short videos for more hard cases caused by hand-held camera vibrations, large object motions, and occlusion.

In this paper, we address the problem of human trajectory forecasting, which aims to predict the inherently multi-modal future movements of humans based on their past trajectories and other contextual cues. We propose a novel motion prediction conditional flow matching model, termed MoFlow, to predict K-shot future trajectories for all agents in a given scene. We design a novel flow matching loss function that not only ensures at least one of the K sets of future trajectories is accurate but also encourages all K sets of future trajectories to be diverse and plausible. Furthermore, by leveraging the implicit maximum likelihood estimation (IMLE), we propose a novel distillation method for flow models that only requires samples from the teacher model. Extensive experiments on the real-world datasets, including SportVU NBA games, ETH-UCY, and SDD, demonstrate that both our teacher flow model and the IMLE-distilled student model achieve state-of-the-art performance. These models can generate diverse trajectories that are physically and socially plausible. Moreover, our one-step student model is 100 times faster than the teacher flow model during sampling. The code, model, and data are available at our project page: https://moflow-imle.github.io

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Real-world time series are characterized by intrinsic non-stationarity that poses a principal challenge for deep forecasting models. While previous models suffer from complicated series variations induced by changing temporal distribution, we tackle non-stationary time series with modern Koopman theory that fundamentally considers the underlying time-variant dynamics. Inspired by Koopman theory of portraying complex dynamical systems, we disentangle time-variant and time-invariant components from intricate non-stationary series by Fourier Filter and design Koopman Predictor to advance respective dynamics forward. Technically, we propose Koopa as a novel Koopman forecaster composed of stackable blocks that learn hierarchical dynamics. Koopa seeks measurement functions for Koopman embedding and utilizes Koopman operators as linear portraits of implicit transition. To cope with time-variant dynamics that exhibits strong locality, Koopa calculates context-aware operators in the temporal neighborhood and is able to utilize incoming ground truth to scale up forecast horizon. Besides, by integrating Koopman Predictors into deep residual structure, we ravel out the binding reconstruction loss in previous Koopman forecasters and achieve end-to-end forecasting objective optimization. Compared with the state-of-the-art model, Koopa achieves competitive performance while saving 77.3% training time and 76.0% memory.

The realization that complex systems such as ecological communities can collapse or shift regimes suddenly and without rapid external forcing poses a serious challenge to our understanding and management of the natural world. The potential to identify early warning signals that would allow researchers and managers to predict such events before they happen has therefore been an invaluable discovery that offers a way forward in spite of such seemingly unpredictable behavior. Research into early warning signals has demonstrated that it is possible to define and detect such early warning signals in advance of a transition in certain contexts. Here we describe the pattern emerging as research continues to explore just how far we can generalize these results. A core of examples emerges that shares three properties: the phenomenon of rapid regime shifts, a pattern of 'critical slowing down' that can be used to detect the approaching shift, and a mechanism of bifurcation driving the sudden change. As research has expanded beyond these core examples, it is becoming clear that not all systems that show regime shifts exhibit critical slowing down, or vice versa. Even when systems exhibit critical slowing down, statistical detection is a challenge. We review the literature that explores these edge cases and highlight the need for (a) new early warning behaviors that can be used in cases where rapid shifts do not exhibit critical slowing down, (b) the development of methods to identify which behavior might be an appropriate signal when encountering a novel system; bearing in mind that a positive indication for some systems is a negative indication in others, and (c) statistical methods that can distinguish between signatures of early warning behaviors and noise.

The noise transition matrix plays a central role in the problem of learning with noisy labels. Among many other reasons, a large number of existing solutions rely on access to it. Identifying and estimating the transition matrix without ground truth labels is a critical and challenging task. When label noise transition depends on each instance, the problem of identifying the instance-dependent noise transition matrix becomes substantially more challenging. Despite recent works proposing solutions for learning from instance-dependent noisy labels, the field lacks a unified understanding of when such a problem remains identifiable. The goal of this paper is to characterize the identifiability of the label noise transition matrix. Building on Kruskal's identifiability results, we are able to show the necessity of multiple noisy labels in identifying the noise transition matrix for the generic case at the instance level. We further instantiate the results to explain the successes of the state-of-the-art solutions and how additional assumptions alleviated the requirement of multiple noisy labels. Our result also reveals that disentangled features are helpful in the above identification task and we provide empirical evidence.

Sequential recommendation has increasingly shifted toward generative recommenders that combine sequential patterns with semantic item information. Yet these methods are often evaluated on a small set of widely used benchmarks, raising a key question: do these benchmarks actually require the advanced modeling capabilities that modern generative recommenders claim to provide? We conduct a benchmark audit with an intentionally simple graph heuristic. Starting from only the last one or two interacted items, it retrieves candidates from a few-hop item-transition graph and ranks them by item-feature similarity. Despite using no sequence encoder, generative objective, or training, this heuristic matches or outperforms many modern baselines, with relative NDCG@10 improvements of 38.10% and 44.18% over the best competing baseline on Amazon Review Sports and CDs. We show that this behavior reflects shortcut solvability rather than an artifact of one heuristic. We identify three shortcut structures that can make next-item prediction easier than expected: low-branching local transitions, feature-smooth transitions, and limited dependence on long user histories. These shortcuts need not appear together; even one or two strong signals can make simple local retrieval highly competitive, while weakening them makes the benefits of more sophisticated models clearer. Across 14 datasets, model rankings vary substantially with dataset properties, yet the heuristic remains competitive on 10 of them. Our findings suggest that strong performance on standard benchmarks does not always demonstrate advanced sequential, semantic, or generative modeling ability. We call for more careful dataset selection and dataset-level diagnostic analysis when using benchmarks to support claims about new recommendation models.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Physiological time series signals reflect complex, multi-scale dynamical processes of the human body. Existing modeling studies focus on static tasks such as classification, event forecasting, or short-horizon next step prediction, while long-horizon signal-level forecasting and predictive nature of physiological signals remain underexplored. We introduce NormWear-2, a world model that encodes both multivariate physiological signals and clinical intervention variables into a shared latent space and models their joint temporal evolution as a dynamical system. Our approach combines inference from prior pre-trained knowledge (intuition) with instant non-parametric latent state transition adaptation (insight), enabling coherent forecasting across multiple temporal scales, conditioned on heterogeneous clinical interventions. During the pretraining phase, we find that chaos-theoretic balancing of dynamical regime diversity yields more robust representations, with a smaller balanced corpus outperforming one twice its size and capturing bifurcation regimes. We evaluate the world model performance across diverse real-world physiological datasets spanning heterogeneous temporal resolutions and intervention regimes, covering daily life, point-of-care, and clinical settings, including fitness planning, hemodialysis, diabetes management, and surgical monitoring. These evaluation datasets comprise records from 8,026 subjects, spanning study durations from 3.2 hours for high-resolution signal data to 2.3 years for longitudinal clinical biomarker tracking. NormWear-2 achieves the best overall forecasting performance across time, frequency, and latent representation domains, with significant improvements over state-of-the-art time series foundation models, while maintaining competitive downstream representation quality, providing a step toward general-purpose world models for physiological signals.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Entities in real-world systems often evolve over time: users shift between information consumption patterns, researchers migrate between fields, and firms transition between financial risk states. When such systems are modeled as dynamic graphs, these transitions correspond to nodes whose class labels change between consecutive snapshots, which we call shifters. Correctly classifying shifters is often more consequential than classifying stable nodes with persistent labels, as detecting such transitions enables timely intervention in high-stakes settings. Yet, we identify a systematic failure mode across all major dynamic graph neural network architectures: shifter performance consistently lags behind stable nodes, with errors concentrated on the old label. Our structural analysis traces this failure to embedding inertia: neighborhood aggregation keeps shifter representations anchored to the old-class centroid, and this effect is strongest precisely where it is hardest to correct, namely for shifters whose neighborhoods remain aligned with the old class. Guided by this finding, we propose CHASE, a model-agnostic CHange-Aware framework for Shifting nodEs that wraps any dynamic GNN with targeted components for detecting label shifts and overriding stale neighborhood signals. CHASE consistently improves shifter performance across all tested models and datasets (up to 114.9% and 202.5% improvement on accuracy and F1 score, respectively) while preserving stable-node performance. We additionally contribute three dynamic graph benchmarks with naturally shifting labels, filling a gap in existing resources. The source code is available at https://github.com/jhkim611/CHASE

Transition videos play a crucial role in media production, enhancing the flow and coherence of visual narratives. Traditional methods like morphing often lack artistic appeal and require specialized skills, limiting their effectiveness. Recent advances in diffusion model-based video generation offer new possibilities for creating transitions but face challenges such as poor inter-frame relationship modeling and abrupt content changes. We propose a novel training-free Transition Video Generation (TVG) approach using video-level diffusion models that addresses these limitations without additional training. Our method leverages Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) to model latent representations, ensuring smooth and dynamic transitions between frames. Additionally, we introduce interpolation-based conditional controls and a Frequency-aware Bidirectional Fusion (FBiF) architecture to enhance temporal control and transition reliability. Evaluations of benchmark datasets and custom image pairs demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in generating high-quality smooth transition videos. The code are provided in https://sobeymil.github.io/tvg.com.

The growing use of language models for forecasting motivates a broader evaluation of their world-model capabilities. Such evaluation must go beyond predictive accuracy to assess hidden-state inference and intervention prediction. Real-world forecasting benchmarks offer limited access to hidden-state ground truth and controlled experiments. We introduce CivWorldBench, a benchmark built on a multi-agent strategy game engine with recorded internal states, controlled observations, and paired intervention rollouts. Its 1,900 decision points from 475 worlds support three task levels: association forecasting, belief inference, and intervention prediction. Reference predictors support attributable evaluation of capability gaps, with an expert harness and empirical ceiling estimates contextualizing scores. Stored trajectories make intermediate predictions verifiable, while agent-play experiments test whether world-model capabilities support decision-making. The main panel comprises eleven frontier language models. Composite benchmark scores correlate with real-world forecasting leaderboards on matched model panels, more closely than with a general-capability index, supporting its use as a proxy for real-world forecasting capability. Strong association forecasts do not consistently extend to belief inference or intervention prediction, and effect magnitudes remain poorly calibrated despite informative direction predictions. Process verification reveals errors missed by final-answer evaluation, and structured reasoning improves intervention prediction for the strongest model in the process study. Agent-play experiments identify useful assisted plans and motivate evaluating decision-relevant capabilities beyond association forecasting. These findings identify hidden-state inference, intermediate-state prediction, and effect calibration as priorities for world-model training.

Forecasting on sparse multivariate time series (MTS) aims to model the predictors of future values of time series given their incomplete past, which is important for many emerging applications. However, most existing methods process MTS's individually, and do not leverage the dynamic distributions underlying the MTS's, leading to sub-optimal results when the sparsity is high. To address this challenge, we propose a novel generative model, which tracks the transition of latent clusters, instead of isolated feature representations, to achieve robust modeling. It is characterized by a newly designed dynamic Gaussian mixture distribution, which captures the dynamics of clustering structures, and is used for emitting timeseries. The generative model is parameterized by neural networks. A structured inference network is also designed for enabling inductive analysis. A gating mechanism is further introduced to dynamically tune the Gaussian mixture distributions. Extensive experimental results on a variety of real-life datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of our method.

We introduce TabRepo, a new dataset of tabular model evaluations and predictions. TabRepo contains the predictions and metrics of 1310 models evaluated on 200 classification and regression datasets. We illustrate the benefit of our dataset in multiple ways. First, we show that it allows to perform analysis such as comparing Hyperparameter Optimization against current AutoML systems while also considering ensembling at marginal cost by using precomputed model predictions. Second, we show that our dataset can be readily leveraged to perform transfer-learning. In particular, we show that applying standard transfer-learning techniques allows to outperform current state-of-the-art tabular systems in accuracy, runtime and latency.

In medical applications, deep learning methods are built to automate diagnostic tasks. However, a clinically relevant question that practitioners usually face, is how to predict the future trajectory of a disease (prognosis). Current methods for such a problem often require domain knowledge, and are complicated to apply. In this paper, we formulate the prognosis prediction problem as a one-to-many forecasting problem from multimodal data. Inspired by a clinical decision-making process with two agents -- a radiologist and a general practitioner, we model a prognosis prediction problem with two transformer-based components that share information between each other. The first block in this model aims to analyze the imaging data, and the second block leverages the internal representations of the first one as inputs, also fusing them with auxiliary patient data. We show the effectiveness of our method in predicting the development of structural knee osteoarthritis changes over time. Our results show that the proposed method outperforms the state-of-the-art baselines in terms of various performance metrics. In addition, we empirically show that the existence of the multi-agent transformers with depths of 2 is sufficient to achieve good performances. Our code is publicly available at https://github.com/MIPT-Oulu/CLIMAT.

We introduce a new visual-interactive tool: Explainable Labeling Assistant (XLabel) that takes an explainable machine learning approach to data labeling. The main component of XLabel is the Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM), a predictive model that can calculate the contribution of each input feature towards the final prediction. As a case study, we use XLabel to predict the labels of four non-communicable diseases (NCDs): diabetes, hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and dyslipidemia. We demonstrate that EBM is an excellent choice of predictive model by comparing it against a rule-based and four other machine learning models. By performing 5-fold cross-validation on 427 medical records, EBM's prediction accuracy, precision, and F1-score are greater than 0.95 in all four NCDs. It performed as well as two black-box models and outperformed the other models in these metrics. In an additional experiment, when 40% of the records were intentionally mislabeled, EBM could recall the correct labels of more than 90% of these records.

Modern recommender systems employ various sequential modules such as self-attention to learn dynamic user interests. However, these methods are less effective in capturing collaborative and transitional signals within user interaction sequences. First, the self-attention architecture uses the embedding of a single item as the attention query, making it challenging to capture collaborative signals. Second, these methods typically follow an auto-regressive framework, which is unable to learn global item transition patterns. To overcome these limitations, we propose a new method called Multi-Query Self-Attention with Transition-Aware Embedding Distillation (MQSA-TED). First, we propose an L-query self-attention module that employs flexible window sizes for attention queries to capture collaborative signals. In addition, we introduce a multi-query self-attention method that balances the bias-variance trade-off in modeling user preferences by combining long and short-query self-attentions. Second, we develop a transition-aware embedding distillation module that distills global item-to-item transition patterns into item embeddings, which enables the model to memorize and leverage transitional signals and serves as a calibrator for collaborative signals. Experimental results on four real-world datasets demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed modules.

Video world models aim to predict future content from an observed scene while following prescribed camera motion. Real-world scene evolution is determined not only by changes in viewpoint and object dynamics, but also by environmental conditions such as weather, which can substantially alter scene appearance and visibility. Modeling such realistic weather evolution is challenging because the required weather modification depends jointly on the observed and desired weather states. Depending on their relation, the model may need to preserve, introduce, or remove a weather effect. Existing video world models typically leave this weather transition implicit, forcing the generation backbone to infer weather evolution together with scene dynamics and camera motion, which leads to imprecise weather control. To address this limitation, we propose MeteoVerse, a unified weather-controllable video world model that generates future videos from a single sunny or adverse-weather image, conditioned on a weather-free scene description, a target-weather instruction, and a camera trajectory. Rather than conditioning only on the desired weather, MeteoVerse explicitly estimates the observed and target weather states and represents the required weather transition. A transition-aware mixture of weather experts then translates this transition into category-specific residual weather features, unifying weather preservation, introduction, and removal while enabling fine-grained control over introduced weather intensity. We further construct the MeteoVerse dataset with over 50K real-world weather video clips, generated sunny counterparts, disentangled scene and weather descriptions, weather-intensity annotations, and camera trajectories. Extensive experiments demonstrate substantially improved weather controllability while retaining competitive scene consistency and camera-control performance.

Early time classification algorithms aim to label a stream of features without processing the full input stream, while maintaining accuracy comparable to that achieved by applying the classifier to the entire input. In this paper, we introduce a statistical framework that can be applied to any sequential classifier, formulating a calibrated stopping rule. This data-driven rule attains finite-sample, distribution-free control of the accuracy gap between full and early-time classification. We start by presenting a novel method that builds on the Learn-then-Test calibration framework to control this gap marginally, on average over i.i.d. instances. As this algorithm tends to yield an excessively high accuracy gap for early halt times, our main contribution is the proposal of a framework that controls a stronger notion of error, where the accuracy gap is controlled conditionally on the accumulated halt times. Numerical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness, applicability, and usefulness of our method. We show that our proposed early stopping mechanism reduces up to 94% of timesteps used for classification while achieving rigorous accuracy gap control.

Predicting human mobility holds significant practical value, with applications ranging from enhancing disaster risk planning to simulating epidemic spread. In this paper, we present the GeoFormer, a decoder-only transformer model adapted from the GPT architecture to forecast human mobility. Our proposed model is rigorously tested in the context of the HuMob Challenge 2023 -- a competition designed to evaluate the performance of prediction models on standardized datasets to predict human mobility. The challenge leverages two datasets encompassing urban-scale data of 25,000 and 100,000 individuals over a longitudinal period of 75 days. GeoFormer stands out as a top performer in the competition, securing a place in the top-3 ranking. Its success is underscored by performing well on both performance metrics chosen for the competition -- the GEO-BLEU and the Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) measures. The performance of the GeoFormer on the HuMob Challenge 2023 underscores its potential to make substantial contributions to the field of human mobility prediction, with far-reaching implications for disaster preparedness, epidemic control, and beyond.

This paper introduces WeatherFormer, a transformer encoder-based model designed to learn robust weather features from minimal observations. It addresses the challenge of modeling complex weather dynamics from small datasets, a bottleneck for many prediction tasks in agriculture, epidemiology, and climate science. WeatherFormer was pretrained on a large pretraining dataset comprised of 39 years of satellite measurements across the Americas. With a novel pretraining task and fine-tuning, WeatherFormer achieves state-of-the-art performance in county-level soybean yield prediction and influenza forecasting. Technical innovations include a unique spatiotemporal encoding that captures geographical, annual, and seasonal variations, adapting the transformer architecture to continuous weather data, and a pretraining strategy to learn representations that are robust to missing weather features. This paper for the first time demonstrates the effectiveness of pretraining large transformer encoder models for weather-dependent applications across multiple domains.

Although automatic shot transition detection approaches are already investigated for more than two decades, an effective universal human-level model was not proposed yet. Even for common shot transitions like hard cuts or simple gradual changes, the potential diversity of analyzed video contents may still lead to both false hits and false dismissals. Recently, deep learning-based approaches significantly improved the accuracy of shot transition detection using 3D convolutional architectures and artificially created training data. Nevertheless, one hundred percent accuracy is still an unreachable ideal. In this paper, we share the current version of our deep network TransNet V2 that reaches state-of-the-art performance on respected benchmarks. A trained instance of the model is provided so it can be instantly utilized by the community for a highly efficient analysis of large video archives. Furthermore, the network architecture, as well as our experience with the training process, are detailed, including simple code snippets for convenient usage of the proposed model and visualization of results.

Process model forecasting (PMF) aims to predict the process model that will characterize a future period, thereby providing a process-level view of how behavior is expected to evolve. Existing PMF methods, however, forecast directly-follows graphs, which cannot explicitly represent concurrency. We extend PMF to causal nets by forecasting time series of relation and binding counts and using these forecasts to reconstruct future process models with AND/XOR semantics. To evaluate the resulting models, we introduce a protocol that accounts for partial traces and constructs the workflow nets required for conformance checking. Experiments on four event logs show that the forecasted models achieve conformance levels close to those of models re-mined from observations in the corresponding future windows. They also outperform static discovery baselines, which retain high precision on the structurally stable log but exhibit substantial precision losses on the other three logs. Filtering infrequent bindings improves most conformance metrics, although it also removes much of the concurrent behavior captured by the models.

As visual generation technologies continue to advance, the scale of video datasets has expanded rapidly, and the quality of these datasets is critical to the performance of video generation models. We argue that temporal splitting, detailed captions, and video quality filtering are three key factors that determine dataset quality. However, existing datasets exhibit various limitations in these areas. To address these challenges, we introduce Koala-36M, a large-scale, high-quality video dataset featuring accurate temporal splitting, detailed captions, and superior video quality. The core of our approach lies in improving the consistency between fine-grained conditions and video content. Specifically, we employ a linear classifier on probability distributions to enhance the accuracy of transition detection, ensuring better temporal consistency. We then provide structured captions for the splitted videos, with an average length of 200 words, to improve text-video alignment. Additionally, we develop a Video Training Suitability Score (VTSS) that integrates multiple sub-metrics, allowing us to filter high-quality videos from the original corpus. Finally, we incorporate several metrics into the training process of the generation model, further refining the fine-grained conditions. Our experiments demonstrate the effectiveness of our data processing pipeline and the quality of the proposed Koala-36M dataset. Our dataset and code will be released at https://koala36m.github.io/.

We study the learning dynamics of self-predictive learning for reinforcement learning, a family of algorithms that learn representations by minimizing the prediction error of their own future latent representations. Despite its recent empirical success, such algorithms have an apparent defect: trivial representations (such as constants) minimize the prediction error, yet it is obviously undesirable to converge to such solutions. Our central insight is that careful designs of the optimization dynamics are critical to learning meaningful representations. We identify that a faster paced optimization of the predictor and semi-gradient updates on the representation, are crucial to preventing the representation collapse. Then in an idealized setup, we show self-predictive learning dynamics carries out spectral decomposition on the state transition matrix, effectively capturing information of the transition dynamics. Building on the theoretical insights, we propose bidirectional self-predictive learning, a novel self-predictive algorithm that learns two representations simultaneously. We examine the robustness of our theoretical insights with a number of small-scale experiments and showcase the promise of the novel representation learning algorithm with large-scale experiments.

Tool-use language agents are evaluated on benchmarks that assume clean inputs, unambiguous tool registries, and reliable APIs. Real deployments violate all these assumptions: user typos propagate into hallucinated tool names, a misconfigured request timeout can stall an agent indefinitely, and duplicate tool names across servers can freeze an SDK. We study these failures as a sim-to-real gap in the tool-use partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP), where deployment noise enters through the observation, action space, reward-relevant metadata, or transition dynamics. We introduce RobustBench-TC, a benchmark with 22 perturbation types organized by these four POMDP components, each grounded in a verified GitHub issue or documented tool-calling failure. Across 21 models from 1.5B to 32B parameters (including the closed-source o4-mini), the robustness profile is sharply uneven: observation perturbations reduce accuracy by less than 5%, while reward-relevant and transition perturbations reduce accuracy by roughly 40% and 30%, respectively; scale alone does not close these gaps. We then propose ToolRL-DR, a domain-randomization reinforcement learning (RL) recipe that trains a tool-use agent on perturbation-augmented trajectories spanning the three statically encodable POMDP components. On a 3B backbone, ToolRL-DR-Full retains roughly three-quarters of clean accuracy and reaches an aggregate perturbed accuracy comparable to open-source 14B function-calling baselines while substantially narrowing the gap to o4-mini. It closes approximately 27% of the Transition gap despite never seeing transition perturbations in training, suggesting that RL on adversarial static tool-use inputs induces a more persistent retry policy that transfers to unseen runtime failures. The dataset, code and benchmark leaderboard are publicly available.

Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring users to engage in trial-and-error and tuning when applying them in a specific setting. This paper investigates Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural networks as an approach to build consistently accurate models for a wide range of predictive process monitoring tasks. First, we show that LSTMs outperform existing techniques to predict the next event of a running case and its timestamp. Next, we show how to use models for predicting the next task in order to predict the full continuation of a running case. Finally, we apply the same approach to predict the remaining time, and show that this approach outperforms existing tailor-made methods.

Managing drawdown, the peak-to-trough decline in an investment portfolio's value, is a precondition for long-term survival in practical investment management. However, mainstream stock forecasting methods predominantly optimize returns or Sharpe ratios under the independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) assumption. Real markets do not follow this assumption, triggering catastrophic drawdowns. We propose a cross-asset state-space trading system (CAST), consisting of two components: The predictor, Cross-Asset Collaborative Kalman Filter (CoKF), estimates each asset's latent state online, coupling all assets through their correlations and adaptively fusing multiple integrated-random-walk orders. The controller, Model Predictive Control (MPC), converts the predictor's forecast into trades, using forecast uncertainty as an explicit risk penalty that controls drawdown. We evaluate CAST on four real-world stock markets over a 15-year test window and show that it consistently occupies the return-drawdown Pareto frontier, achieving strong risk-adjusted performance while maintaining substantially lower maximum drawdown than competitive baselines. A stress test across crisis periods further demonstrates robust behavior under market shocks and distribution shift. Because the predictor and controller interact only through the predicted price path, both are plug-and-play, making CAST a modular, interpretable trading system. The code is available at https://github.com/FanBroWell/CAST

Transformer-based models have significantly advanced time series forecasting, with patch-based input strategies offering efficiency and improved long-horizon modeling. Yet, existing approaches rely on temporally-agnostic patch construction, where arbitrary starting positions and fixed lengths fracture temporal coherence by splitting natural transitions across boundaries. This naive segmentation often disrupts short-term dependencies and weakens representation learning. In response, we propose EntroPE (Entropy-Guided Dynamic Patch Encoder), a novel, temporally informed framework that dynamically detects transition points via conditional entropy and dynamically places patch boundaries. This preserves temporal structure while retaining the computational benefits of patching. EntroPE consists of two key modules, namely an Entropy-based Dynamic Patcher (EDP) that applies information-theoretic criteria to locate natural temporal shifts and determine patch boundaries, and an Adaptive Patch Encoder (APE) that employs pooling and cross-attention to capture intra-patch dependencies and produce fixed-size latent representations. These embeddings are then processed by a global transformer to model inter-patch dynamics. Experiments across long-term forecasting benchmarks demonstrate that EntroPE improves both accuracy and efficiency, establishing entropy-guided dynamic patching as a promising new paradigm for time series modeling. Code is available at: https://github.com/Sachithx/EntroPE.

We propose PROSE-FD, a zero-shot multimodal PDE foundational model for simultaneous prediction of heterogeneous two-dimensional physical systems related to distinct fluid dynamics settings. These systems include shallow water equations and the Navier-Stokes equations with incompressible and compressible flow, regular and complex geometries, and different buoyancy settings. This work presents a new transformer-based multi-operator learning approach that fuses symbolic information to perform operator-based data prediction, i.e. non-autoregressive. By incorporating multiple modalities in the inputs, the PDE foundation model builds in a pathway for including mathematical descriptions of the physical behavior. We pre-train our foundation model on 6 parametric families of equations collected from 13 datasets, including over 60K trajectories. Our model outperforms popular operator learning, computer vision, and multi-physics models, in benchmark forward prediction tasks. We test our architecture choices with ablation studies.

Shot Boundary Detection (SBD) aims to automatically identify shot changes and divide a video into coherent shots. While SBD was widely studied in the literature, existing state-of-the-art methods often produce non-interpretable boundaries on transitions, miss subtle yet harmful discontinuities, and rely on noisy, low-diversity annotations and outdated benchmarks. To alleviate these limitations, we propose OmniShotCut to formulate SBD as structured relational prediction, jointly estimating shot ranges with intra-shot relations and inter-shot relations, by a shot query-based dense video Transformer. To avoid imprecise manual labeling, we adopt a fully synthetic transition synthesis pipeline that automatically reproduces major transition families with precise boundaries and parameterized variants. We also introduce OmniShotCutBench, a modern wide-domain benchmark enabling holistic and diagnostic evaluation.

We present MotionDiffuser, a diffusion based representation for the joint distribution of future trajectories over multiple agents. Such representation has several key advantages: first, our model learns a highly multimodal distribution that captures diverse future outcomes. Second, the simple predictor design requires only a single L2 loss training objective, and does not depend on trajectory anchors. Third, our model is capable of learning the joint distribution for the motion of multiple agents in a permutation-invariant manner. Furthermore, we utilize a compressed trajectory representation via PCA, which improves model performance and allows for efficient computation of the exact sample log probability. Subsequently, we propose a general constrained sampling framework that enables controlled trajectory sampling based on differentiable cost functions. This strategy enables a host of applications such as enforcing rules and physical priors, or creating tailored simulation scenarios. MotionDiffuser can be combined with existing backbone architectures to achieve top motion forecasting results. We obtain state-of-the-art results for multi-agent motion prediction on the Waymo Open Motion Dataset.

Large-scale pre-trained models (PTMs) such as BERT and GPT have recently achieved great success in Natural Language Processing and Computer Vision domains. However, the development of PTMs on healthcare time-series data is lagging behind.This underscores the limitations of the existing transformer-based architectures, particularly their scalability to handle large-scale time series and ability to capture long-term temporal dependencies. In this study, we present Timely Generative Pre-trained Transformer (TimelyGPT). TimelyGPT employs an extrapolatable position (xPos) embedding to encode trend and periodic patterns into time-series representations. It also integrates recurrent attention and temporal convolution modules to effectively capture global-local temporal dependencies. We evaluated TimelyGPT on two large-scale healthcare time series datasets corresponding to continuous biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series, respectively. Our experiments show that during pre-training, TimelyGPT excels in learning time-series representations from continuously monitored biosignals and irregularly-sampled time series data commonly observed in longitudinal electronic health records (EHRs). In forecasting continuous biosignals, TimelyGPT achieves accurate extrapolation up to 6,000 timesteps of body temperature during the sleep stage transition, given a short look-up window (i.e., prompt) containing only 2,000 timesteps. For irregularly-sampled time series, TimelyGPT with a proposed time-specific inference demonstrates high top recall scores in predicting future diagnoses using early diagnostic records, effectively handling irregular intervals between clinical records. Together, we envision TimelyGPT to be useful in a broad spectrum of health domains, including long-term patient health state forecasting and patient risk trajectory prediction.

With the widespread deployment of Computer-using Agents (CUAs) in complex real-world environments, prevalent long-term risks often lead to severe and irreversible consequences. Most existing guardrails for CUAs adopt a reactive approach, constraining agent behavior only within the current observation space. While these guardrails can prevent immediate short-term risks (e.g., clicking on a phishing link), they cannot proactively avoid long-term risks: seemingly reasonable actions can lead to high-risk consequences that emerge with a delay (e.g., cleaning logs leads to future audits being untraceable), which reactive guardrails cannot identify within the current observation space. To address these limitations, we propose a predictive guardrail approach, with the core idea of aligning predicted future risks with current decisions. Based on this approach, we present SafePred, a predictive guardrail framework for CUAs that establishes a risk-to-decision loop to ensure safe agent behavior. SafePred supports two key abilities: (1) Short- and long-term risk prediction: by using safety policies as the basis for risk prediction, SafePred leverages the prediction capability of the world model to generate semantic representations of both short-term and long-term risks, thereby identifying and pruning actions that lead to high-risk states; (2) Decision optimization: translating predicted risks into actionable safe decision guidances through step-level interventions and task-level re-planning. Extensive experiments show that SafePred significantly reduces high-risk behaviors, achieving over 97.6% safety performance and improving task utility by up to 21.4% compared with reactive baselines.

Generating controllable character animation from a reference image and motion guidance remains a challenging task due to the inherent difficulty of injecting appearance and motion cues into video diffusion models. Prior works often rely on complex architectures, explicit guider modules, or multi-stage processing pipelines, which increase structural overhead and hinder deployment. Inspired by the strong visual context modeling capacity of pre-trained video diffusion transformers, we propose FramePrompt, a minimalist yet powerful framework that treats reference images, skeleton-guided motion, and target video clips as a unified visual sequence. By reformulating animation as a conditional future prediction task, we bypass the need for guider networks and structural modifications. Experiments demonstrate that our method significantly outperforms representative baselines across various evaluation metrics while also simplifying training. Our findings highlight the effectiveness of sequence-level visual conditioning and demonstrate the potential of pre-trained models for controllable animation without architectural changes.

GUI world models are increasingly evaluated as one-step next-screen predictors, yet their intended use is often as multi-step environments for GUI agents. This mismatch leaves a key requirement under-tested: generated states must remain contextually consistent when they are repeatedly reused for future interaction. We introduce GUI-CC, a benchmark that evaluates contextual consistency of GUI world models as agent environments rather than isolated next-screen predictors. GUI-CC contains two complementary tracks: an offline reference-action track that rolls models along real mobile GUI trajectories, and an online agent-loop track that lets fixed probing agents interact with model-generated UIs. We construct 500 offline trajectory tasks from GUIOdyssey and 200 emulator-verified online tasks across 30 mobile apps. GUI-CC evaluates transition fidelity, transition plausibility, contextual consistency, and task progress. Experiments show that plausible single-step generation does not guarantee reliable environment simulation: current models often produce usable-looking screens while failing to preserve task-relevant context or support executable multi-step rollouts.

We consider the problem of forecasting motion from a single image, i.e., predicting how objects in the world are likely to move, without the ability to observe other parameters such as the object velocities or the forces applied to them. We formulate this task as conditional generation of dense trajectory grids with a model that closely follows the architecture of modern video generators but outputs motion trajectories instead of pixels. This approach captures scene-wide dynamics and uncertainty, yielding more accurate and diverse predictions than prior regressors and generators. We extensively evaluate our method on simulated data, demonstrate its effectiveness on downstream applications such as robotics, and show promising accuracy on real-world intuitive physics datasets. Although recent state-of-the-art video generators are often regarded as world models, we show that they struggle with forecasting motion from a single image, even in simple physical scenarios such as falling blocks or mechanical object interactions, despite fine-tuning on such data. We show that this limitation arises from the overhead of generating pixels rather than directly modeling motion.

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly 10{,}000times less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an 18times compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Procedural video representation learning is an active research area where the objective is to learn an agent which can anticipate and forecast the future given the present video input, typically in conjunction with textual annotations. Prior works often rely on large-scale pretraining of visual encoders and prediction models with language supervision. However, the necessity and effectiveness of extending compute intensive pretraining to learn video clip sequences with noisy text supervision have not yet been fully validated by previous works. In this work, we show that a strong off-the-shelf frozen pretrained visual encoder, along with a well designed prediction model, can achieve state-of-the-art (SoTA) performance in forecasting and procedural planning without the need for pretraining the prediction model, nor requiring additional supervision from language or ASR. Instead of learning representations from pixel space, our method utilizes the latent embedding space of publicly available vision encoders. By conditioning on frozen clip-level embeddings from observed steps to predict the actions of unseen steps, our prediction model is able to learn robust representations for forecasting through iterative denoising - leveraging the recent advances in diffusion transformers (Peebles & Xie, 2023). Empirical studies over a total of five procedural learning tasks across four datasets (NIV, CrossTask, COIN and Ego4D-v2) show that our model advances the strong baselines in long-horizon action anticipation (+2.6% in Verb ED@20, +3.1% in Noun ED@20), and significantly improves the SoTA in step forecasting (+5.0%), task classification (+3.8%), and procedure planning tasks (up to +2.28% in success rate, +3.39% in mAcc, and +0.90% in mIoU).

Language models have demonstrated impressive ability in context understanding and generative performance. Inspired by the recent success of language foundation models, in this paper, we propose LMTraj (Language-based Multimodal Trajectory predictor), which recasts the trajectory prediction task into a sort of question-answering problem. Departing from traditional numerical regression models, which treat the trajectory coordinate sequence as continuous signals, we consider them as discrete signals like text prompts. Specially, we first transform an input space for the trajectory coordinate into the natural language space. Here, the entire time-series trajectories of pedestrians are converted into a text prompt, and scene images are described as text information through image captioning. The transformed numerical and image data are then wrapped into the question-answering template for use in a language model. Next, to guide the language model in understanding and reasoning high-level knowledge, such as scene context and social relationships between pedestrians, we introduce an auxiliary multi-task question and answering. We then train a numerical tokenizer with the prompt data. We encourage the tokenizer to separate the integer and decimal parts well, and leverage it to capture correlations between the consecutive numbers in the language model. Lastly, we train the language model using the numerical tokenizer and all of the question-answer prompts. Here, we propose a beam-search-based most-likely prediction and a temperature-based multimodal prediction to implement both deterministic and stochastic inferences. Applying our LMTraj, we show that the language-based model can be a powerful pedestrian trajectory predictor, and outperforms existing numerical-based predictor methods. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/inhwanbae/LMTrajectory .

Recent advances in Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have improved robotic manipulation, yet observation-to-action learning remains limited by a fundamental transition realizability gap, manifested in three tightly coupled problems: (i) Transition ambiguity. Visually similar current observations may correspond to different manipulation phases and imply different subsequent transitions. (ii) Prediction--execution mismatch. A visually plausible predicted future observation does not necessarily correspond to a physically realizable transition. (iii) Experience--realization mismatch. A historically executable action pattern may not necessarily realize the intended transition in the current scene and therefore requires context-aware adaptation. Accordingly, we propose UniMPA, a Unified Memory-Prediction-Action model that addresses these problems through a shared action-grounded transition interface. (i) UniMPA introduces Persistent-Selective Future Prediction to resolve transition ambiguity by modeling the intended future state evolution. A persistent latent stream continuously tracks task-level progress, while a transition-critical pixel stream selectively resolves fine-grained interaction changes through memory-grounded prediction. (ii) To assess the physical executability of the anticipated transition, the predicted transition queries a temporal Visual-Action Memory Bank. The bank retrieves historically realized visual-action experience, grounding future prediction in executable evidence. (iii) To adapt executable experience to the current scene, an Action-Visual Memory Bank retrieves visually grounded action prototypes from historical action evolution. Prototype-Biased Flow then shifts the flow source toward a historically supported action manifold for context-aware refinement.

Predictive process monitoring (PPM) leverages event logs to forecast the future of running process instances, for instance, predicting the next activity, the remaining time until case completion, or the time to the next event. While PPM research in recent years has been dominated by deep sequence models trained from scratch, such as Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) models, foundation-model approaches---particularly large language models (LLMs)---are increasingly explored for PPM. At the same time, tabular foundation models with in-context learning capabilities offer a promising alternative but have not yet been systematically benchmarked for PPM. Thus, it remains unclear whether classical sequence-based models remain competitive in this evolving landscape. This paper compares the three modeling paradigms both conceptually and empirically through a controlled benchmark across multiple datasets and prediction tasks. The results show that sequence models consistently perform best for next activity prediction, whereas tabular foundation models are competitive on temporal tasks, with LLMs usually lagging behind despite higher cost.

The recent boom of linear forecasting models questions the ongoing passion for architectural modifications of Transformer-based forecasters. These forecasters leverage Transformers to model the global dependencies over temporal tokens of time series, with each token formed by multiple variates of the same timestamp. However, Transformers are challenged in forecasting series with larger lookback windows due to performance degradation and computation explosion. Besides, the embedding for each temporal token fuses multiple variates that represent potential delayed events and distinct physical measurements, which may fail in learning variate-centric representations and result in meaningless attention maps. In this work, we reflect on the competent duties of Transformer components and repurpose the Transformer architecture without any modification to the basic components. We propose iTransformer that simply applies the attention and feed-forward network on the inverted dimensions. Specifically, the time points of individual series are embedded into variate tokens which are utilized by the attention mechanism to capture multivariate correlations; meanwhile, the feed-forward network is applied for each variate token to learn nonlinear representations. The iTransformer model achieves state-of-the-art on challenging real-world datasets, which further empowers the Transformer family with promoted performance, generalization ability across different variates, and better utilization of arbitrary lookback windows, making it a nice alternative as the fundamental backbone of time series forecasting. Code is available at this repository: https://github.com/thuml/iTransformer.

We consider the problem of learning in a non-stationary reinforcement learning (RL) environment, where the setting can be fully described by a piecewise stationary discrete-time Markov decision process (MDP). We introduce a variant of the Restarted Bayesian Online Change-Point Detection algorithm (R-BOCPD) that operates on input streams originating from the more general multinomial distribution and provides near-optimal theoretical guarantees in terms of false-alarm rate and detection delay. Based on this, we propose an improved version of the UCRL2 algorithm for MDPs with state transition kernel sampled from a multinomial distribution, which we call R-BOCPD-UCRL2. We perform a finite-time performance analysis and show that R-BOCPD-UCRL2 enjoys a favorable regret bound of Oleft(D O A T K_T logleft (frac{T{delta} right) + K_T log frac{K_T{delta}}{minlimits_ell : KLleft( {theta^{(ell+1)}}midmathbf{theta^{(ell)}}right)}}right), where D is the largest MDP diameter from the set of MDPs defining the piecewise stationary MDP setting, O is the finite number of states (constant over all changes), A is the finite number of actions (constant over all changes), K_T is the number of change points up to horizon T, and theta^{(ell)} is the transition kernel during the interval [c_ell, c_{ell+1}), which we assume to be multinomially distributed over the set of states O. Interestingly, the performance bound does not directly scale with the variation in MDP state transition distributions and rewards, ie. can also model abrupt changes. In practice, R-BOCPD-UCRL2 outperforms the state-of-the-art in a variety of scenarios in synthetic environments. We provide a detailed experimental setup along with a code repository (upon publication) that can be used to easily reproduce our experiments.

User churn, characterized by customers ending their relationship with a business, has profound economic consequences across various Business-to-Customer scenarios. For numerous system-to-user actions, such as promotional discounts and retention campaigns, predicting potential churners stands as a primary objective. In volatile sectors like fantasy sports, unpredictable factors such as international sports events can influence even regular spending habits. Consequently, while transaction history and user-product interaction are valuable in predicting churn, they demand deep domain knowledge and intricate feature engineering. Additionally, feature development for churn prediction systems can be resource-intensive, particularly in production settings serving 200m+ users, where inference pipelines largely focus on feature engineering. This paper conducts an exhaustive study on predicting user churn using historical data. We aim to create a model forecasting customer churn likelihood, facilitating businesses in comprehending attrition trends and formulating effective retention plans. Our approach treats churn prediction as multivariate time series classification, demonstrating that combining user activity and deep neural networks yields remarkable results for churn prediction in complex business-to-customer contexts.

The rapid advancements in computing dramatically increase the scale and cost of training Large Language Models (LLMs). Accurately predicting downstream task performance prior to model training is crucial for efficient resource allocation, yet remains challenging due to two primary constraints: (1) the "emergence phenomenon", wherein downstream performance metrics become meaningful only after extensive training, which limits the ability to use smaller models for prediction; (2) Uneven task difficulty distributions and the absence of consistent scaling laws, resulting in substantial metric variability. Existing performance prediction methods suffer from limited accuracy and reliability, thereby impeding the assessment of potential LLM capabilities. To address these challenges, we propose a Clustering-On-Difficulty (COD) downstream performance prediction framework. COD first constructs a predictable support subset by clustering tasks based on difficulty features, strategically excluding non-emergent and non-scalable clusters. The scores on the selected subset serve as effective intermediate predictors of downstream performance on the full evaluation set. With theoretical support, we derive a mapping function that transforms performance metrics from the predictable subset to the full evaluation set, thereby ensuring accurate extrapolation of LLM downstream performance. The proposed method has been applied to predict performance scaling for a 70B LLM, providing actionable insights for training resource allocation and assisting in monitoring the training process. Notably, COD achieves remarkable predictive accuracy on the 70B LLM by leveraging an ensemble of small models, demonstrating an absolute mean deviation of 1.36% across eight important LLM evaluation benchmarks.

We introduce a new family of video prediction models designed to support downstream control tasks. We call these models Video Occupancy models (VOCs). VOCs operate in a compact latent space, thus avoiding the need to make predictions about individual pixels. Unlike prior latent-space world models, VOCs directly predict the discounted distribution of future states in a single step, thus avoiding the need for multistep roll-outs. We show that both properties are beneficial when building predictive models of video for use in downstream control. Code is available at https://github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models{github.com/manantomar/video-occupancy-models}.

Existing driving automation (DA) systems on production vehicles rely on human drivers to decide when to engage DA while requiring them to remain continuously attentive and ready to intervene. This design demands substantial situational judgment and imposes significant cognitive load, leading to steep learning curves, suboptimal user experience, and safety risks from both over-reliance and delayed takeover. Predicting when drivers hand over control to DA and when they take it back is therefore critical for designing proactive, context-aware HMI, yet existing datasets rarely capture the multimodal context, including road scene, driver state, vehicle dynamics, and route environment. To fill this gap, we introduce BATON, a large-scale naturalistic dataset capturing real-world DA usage across 127 drivers, and 136.6 hours of driving. The dataset synchronizes front-view video, in-cabin video, decoded CAN bus signals, radar-based lead-vehicle interaction, and GPS-derived route context, forming a closed-loop multimodal record around each control transition. We define three benchmark tasks: driving action understanding, handover prediction, and takeover prediction, and evaluate baselines spanning sequence models, classical classifiers, and zero-shot VLMs. Results show that visual input alone is insufficient for reliable transition prediction: front-view video captures road context but not driver state, while in-cabin video reflects driver readiness but not the external scene. Incorporating CAN and route-context signals substantially improves performance over video-only settings, indicating strong complementarity across modalities. We further find takeover events develop more gradually and benefit from longer prediction horizons, whereas handover events depend more on immediate contextual cues, revealing an asymmetry with direct implications for HMI design in assisted driving systems.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

Despite significant progress of generative models in the natural sciences, their controllability remains challenging. One fundamentally missing aspect of molecular or protein generative models is an inductive bias that can reflect continuous properties of interest. To that end, we propose the Regression Transformer (RT), a novel method that abstracts regression as a conditional sequence modeling problem. This introduces a new paradigm of multitask language models which seamlessly bridge sequence regression and conditional sequence generation. We thoroughly demonstrate that, despite using a nominal-scale training objective, the RT matches or surpasses the performance of conventional regression models in property prediction tasks of small molecules, proteins and chemical reactions. Critically, priming the same model with continuous properties yields a highly competitive conditional generative model that outperforms specialized approaches in a substructure-constrained, property-driven molecule generation benchmark. Our dichotomous approach is facilitated by a novel, alternating training scheme that enables the model to decorate seed sequences by desired properties, e.g., to optimize reaction yield. In sum, the RT is the first report of a multitask model that concurrently excels at predictive and generative tasks in biochemistry. This finds particular application in property-driven, local exploration of the chemical or protein space and could pave the road toward foundation models in material design. The code to reproduce all experiments of the paper is available at: https://github.com/IBM/regression-transformer

Learning behavioral patterns from observational data has been a de-facto approach to motion forecasting. Yet, the current paradigm suffers from two shortcomings: brittle under distribution shifts and inefficient for knowledge transfer. In this work, we propose to address these challenges from a causal representation perspective. We first introduce a causal formalism of motion forecasting, which casts the problem as a dynamic process with three groups of latent variables, namely invariant variables, style confounders, and spurious features. We then introduce a learning framework that treats each group separately: (i) unlike the common practice mixing datasets collected from different locations, we exploit their subtle distinctions by means of an invariance loss encouraging the model to suppress spurious correlations; (ii) we devise a modular architecture that factorizes the representations of invariant mechanisms and style confounders to approximate a sparse causal graph; (iii) we introduce a style contrastive loss that not only enforces the structure of style representations but also serves as a self-supervisory signal for test-time refinement on the fly. Experiments on synthetic and real datasets show that our proposed method improves the robustness and reusability of learned motion representations, significantly outperforming prior state-of-the-art motion forecasting models for out-of-distribution generalization and low-shot transfer.

Recent advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) for numerical weather prediction (NWP) have significantly transformed atmospheric modeling. AI NWP models outperform traditional physics-based systems, such as the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), across several global metrics while requiring fewer computational resources. However, existing AI NWP models face limitations related to training datasets and timestep choices, often resulting in artifacts that reduce model performance. To address these challenges, we introduce the Community Research Earth Digital Intelligence Twin (CREDIT) framework, developed at NSF NCAR. CREDIT provides a flexible, scalable, and user-friendly platform for training and deploying AI-based atmospheric models on high-performance computing systems. It offers an end-to-end pipeline for data preprocessing, model training, and evaluation, democratizing access to advanced AI NWP capabilities. We demonstrate CREDIT's potential through WXFormer, a novel deterministic vision transformer designed to predict atmospheric states autoregressively, addressing common AI NWP issues like compounding error growth with techniques such as spectral normalization, padding, and multi-step training. Additionally, to illustrate CREDIT's flexibility and state-of-the-art model comparisons, we train the FUXI architecture within this framework. Our findings show that both FUXI and WXFormer, trained on six-hourly ERA5 hybrid sigma-pressure levels, generally outperform IFS HRES in 10-day forecasts, offering potential improvements in efficiency and forecast accuracy. CREDIT's modular design enables researchers to explore various models, datasets, and training configurations, fostering innovation within the scientific community.

A fundamental open challenge in modern LLM scaling is the lack of understanding around emergent capabilities. In particular, language model pretraining loss is known to be highly predictable as a function of compute. However, downstream capabilities are far less predictable -- sometimes even exhibiting emergent jumps -- which makes it challenging to anticipate the capabilities of future models. In this work, we first pose the task of emergence prediction: given access to current LLMs that have random few-shot accuracy on a task, can we predict whether future models (GPT-N+1) will have non-trivial accuracy on that task? We then discover a simple insight for this problem: finetuning LLMs on a given task can shift the point in scaling at which emergence occurs towards less capable models. To operationalize this insight, we can finetune LLMs with varying amounts of data and fit a parametric function that predicts when emergence will occur (i.e., "emergence laws"). We validate this approach using four standard NLP benchmarks where large-scale open-source LLMs already demonstrate emergence (MMLU, GSM8K, CommonsenseQA, and CoLA). Using only small-scale LLMs, we find that, in some cases, we can accurately predict whether models trained with up to 4x more compute have emerged. Finally, we present a case study of two realistic uses for emergence prediction.

Whether a language model has improved itself is increasingly judged not by mean accuracy but by which individual problems it gains and loses. Tracking these transitions means differencing two noisy estimates, leaving them vulnerable to measurement artifacts. Auditing three rounds of rank-32 LoRA self-training on Qwen3-8B against a frozen control pushed through the identical pipeline, we identify seven measurement failures, each of which inverts a reported finding when its control is absent. Several are standard practice. A ledger built on a single greedy decode manufactures capability changes on an untrained model, largely an artifact of inference batching; the expansion statistic separating acquisition from sharpening assigns that same model a rate of 0.280. The natural threshold repair does not survive replication: estimated across the frozen comparisons such a design already contains, its null stays non-zero. We replace it with a per-problem exact test against a pooled baseline under false-discovery-rate control, which detects nothing on any held-out replicate and is unchanged under the multiple-testing rule, error rate and pool size. Applied to a ladder of arms matched in stream, volume and evaluation, the audit finds that external distillation improves problems the base model rarely reaches while three forms of self-training do not; a regression rejects this asymmetry as a by-product of distillation's larger overall gain (p < 10^{-8}). On the far smaller set of problems the base model never reaches, the evidence is inconclusive, while self-training corrupts problems solved at baseline at rates well above the measured floor. Transition-level auditing therefore requires a separately measured null for every statistic it reports: nulls that cost no new experiments, built from baseline replicates a multi-arm study already owns, though not from as few as most possess.

Classifier guidance is a recently introduced method to trade off mode coverage and sample fidelity in conditional diffusion models post training, in the same spirit as low temperature sampling or truncation in other types of generative models. Classifier guidance combines the score estimate of a diffusion model with the gradient of an image classifier and thereby requires training an image classifier separate from the diffusion model. It also raises the question of whether guidance can be performed without a classifier. We show that guidance can be indeed performed by a pure generative model without such a classifier: in what we call classifier-free guidance, we jointly train a conditional and an unconditional diffusion model, and we combine the resulting conditional and unconditional score estimates to attain a trade-off between sample quality and diversity similar to that obtained using classifier guidance.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

Given an algorithmic predictor that is accurate on some source population consisting of strategic human decision subjects, will it remain accurate if the population respond to it? In our setting, an agent or a user corresponds to a sample (X,Y) drawn from a distribution D and will face a model h and its classification result h(X). Agents can modify X to adapt to h, which will incur a distribution shift on (X,Y). Our formulation is motivated by applications where the deployed machine learning models are subjected to human agents, and will ultimately face responsive and interactive data distributions. We formalize the discussions of the transferability of a model by studying how the performance of the model trained on the available source distribution (data) would translate to the performance on its induced domain. We provide both upper bounds for the performance gap due to the induced domain shift, as well as lower bounds for the trade-offs that a classifier has to suffer on either the source training distribution or the induced target distribution. We provide further instantiated analysis for two popular domain adaptation settings, including covariate shift and target shift.

FSampler is a training free, sampler agnostic execution layer that accelerates diffusion sampling by reducing the number of function evaluations (NFE). FSampler maintains a short history of denoising signals (epsilon) from recent real model calls and extrapolates the next epsilon using finite difference predictors at second order, third order, or fourth order, falling back to lower order when history is insufficient. On selected steps the predicted epsilon substitutes the model call while keeping each sampler's update rule unchanged. Predicted epsilons are validated for finiteness and magnitude; a learning stabilizer rescales predictions on skipped steps to correct drift, and an optional gradient estimation stabilizer compensates local curvature. Protected windows, periodic anchors, and a cap on consecutive skips bound deviation over the trajectory. Operating at the sampler level, FSampler integrates with Euler/DDIM, DPM++ 2M/2S, LMS/AB2, and RES family exponential multistep methods and drops into standard workflows. FLUX.1 dev, Qwen Image, and Wan 2.2, FSampler reduces time by 8 to 22% and model calls by 15 to 25% at high fidelity (Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) 0.95 to 0.99), without altering sampler formulas. With an aggressive adaptive gate, reductions can reach 45 to 50% fewer model calls at lower fidelity (SSIM 0.73 to 0.74).

Generic Event Boundary Detection (GEBD) aims to interpret long-form videos through the lens of human perception. However, current GEBD methods require processing complete video frames to make predictions, unlike humans processing data online and in real-time. To bridge this gap, we introduce a new task, Online Generic Event Boundary Detection (On-GEBD), aiming to detect boundaries of generic events immediately in streaming videos. This task faces unique challenges of identifying subtle, taxonomy-free event changes in real-time, without the access to future frames. To tackle these challenges, we propose a novel On-GEBD framework, Estimator, inspired by Event Segmentation Theory (EST) which explains how humans segment ongoing activity into events by leveraging the discrepancies between predicted and actual information. Our framework consists of two key components: the Consistent Event Anticipator (CEA), and the Online Boundary Discriminator (OBD). Specifically, the CEA generates a prediction of the future frame reflecting current event dynamics based solely on prior frames. Then, the OBD measures the prediction error and adaptively adjusts the threshold using statistical tests on past errors to capture diverse, subtle event transitions. Experimental results demonstrate that Estimator outperforms all baselines adapted from recent online video understanding models and achieves performance comparable to prior offline-GEBD methods on the Kinetics-GEBD and TAPOS datasets.