Daily Papers

This paper presents TurnTurk-GPT, a text-based turn-taking predictor for Turkish obtained by fine-tuning a Turkish GPT-2 model with the TurnGPT objective on synthetic and real dialogue, and evaluates it on real Turkish conversation against rule baselines, a zero-shot Turkish language model and a widely used multilingual end-of-turn detector. Evaluation uses word-level decision points on unpunctuated, lower-cased text approximating the output of streaming speech recognisers, recording-disjoint and speaker-disjoint folds, nested threshold selection and paired cluster bootstrap tests. TurnTurk-GPT outperforms the multilingual detector under both recording-disjoint and speaker-disjoint evaluation. It outperforms the zero-shot language model only when the test speakers occur in training; on unseen speakers the two are statistically indistinguishable. Removing the suffixes of the turn-final word reduces AP by up to 44%, against 2% for a sentence-internal word, locating the Turkish end-of-turn cue in verb-final morphology. Synthetic dialogue alone yields the weakest trained model, and when a speaker pauses the zero-shot and multilingual baselines remain close to chance. The model and the evaluation protocol are publicly released.

Smooth speaker transitions are fundamental to effective conversation and rely on an interlocutor's ability to predict when to enter the conversation. This ability depends on accurately interpreting and expressing the verbal and non-verbal cues that signal when a speaker wishes to take or relinquish the floor. The process becomes even more complex in noisy, natural, multi-party settings, with multiple interlocutors available. This study models how gaze and speech, together with perceived interpersonal closeness, signal conversational floor changes in free four-person dialogue. Using the GaMMA corpus, we trained logistic regression models using interpretable, behaviourally motivated features extracted before each turn-taking event to classify floor-transfer outcomes as gaps or overlaps. Predictors included gaze features such as transition motifs and behavioural contrasts, entropy, gaze-based addressee identity, and mutual gaze, alongside speech features derived from speaker loudness, as well as perceived interpersonal closeness (IOS) between speakers. Results show that gaze features capture predictive structure, and that combining them with loudness improves performance (ROC AUC = 0.76 +- 0.04). Loudness reflected speaker control, while gaze dispersion and addressing indexed listener readiness and competitive entry. Performance remained robust across noise conditions, indicating that gaze provides a complementary, noise-resilient cue to turn-taking dynamics.

Full-duplex dialogue requires timely yet selective interruption handling, which end-of-turn prediction alone cannot achieve: complete utterances may need no response, while unfinished requests may warrant interruption. To address this challenge, we propose HiThink Turn, an intent-aware streaming turn-state predictor that separates response intent from semantic completeness and conditions decisions on system playback state. A key contribution is minimal intent-sufficient prefix supervision, constructed through LLM judgments and speech alignment, while training on audio truncated at chunk boundaries improves robustness to partial speech. These components support streaming inference with 240-ms audio chunks, enabling low-latency, accurate full-duplex turn control. Experiments show that HiThink Turn leads the compared methods in Easy Turn macro accuracy, Full-Duplex-Bench average interaction rate score (0.933), and non-target-speech average playback resume rate (0.735). Additionally, intent-prefix triggering raises interruption success from 89\% to 98\% and reduces mean stop latency by 60.9\%.

Turn-taking is a basic organizational feature of human conversation and remains difficult to model in natural, synchronous dialog systems. While existing research has explored multimodal approaches and large language models for turn-ending prediction, there is a lack of naturalistic conversational corpora specifically addressing turn-taking dynamics in Turkish. This study introduces a multimodal Turkish conversational dataset of unscripted dyadic interactions, comprising synchronized front-facing video, per-speaker audio channels that allow overlapping speech to be attributed to individual speakers, and time-aligned transcriptions. Turn-taking prediction is formulated as a binary classification problem, and a Genetic Algorithm (GA) is employed to optimize interpretable decision rules derived from visual, acoustic, and linguistic features. A hybrid AND-OR rule representation is adopted in the proposed framework to represent the alternative cue combinations that precede a turn transition.

Syntactic and pragmatic completeness is known to be important for turn-taking prediction, but so far machine learning models of turn-taking have used such linguistic information in a limited way. In this paper, we introduce TurnGPT, a transformer-based language model for predicting turn-shifts in spoken dialog. The model has been trained and evaluated on a variety of written and spoken dialog datasets. We show that the model outperforms two baselines used in prior work. We also report on an ablation study, as well as attention and gradient analyses, which show that the model is able to utilize the dialog context and pragmatic completeness for turn-taking prediction. Finally, we explore the model's potential in not only detecting, but also projecting, turn-completions.

This paper investigates the application of voice activity projection (VAP), a predictive turn-taking model for spoken dialogue, on multilingual data, encompassing English, Mandarin, and Japanese. The VAP model continuously predicts the upcoming voice activities of participants in dyadic dialogue, leveraging a cross-attention Transformer to capture the dynamic interplay between participants. The results show that a monolingual VAP model trained on one language does not make good predictions when applied to other languages. However, a multilingual model, trained on all three languages, demonstrates predictive performance on par with monolingual models across all languages. Further analyses show that the multilingual model has learned to discern the language of the input signal. We also analyze the sensitivity to pitch, a prosodic cue that is thought to be important for turn-taking. Finally, we compare two different audio encoders, contrastive predictive coding (CPC) pre-trained on English, with a recent model based on multilingual wav2vec 2.0 (MMS).

Text injection for automatic speech recognition (ASR), wherein unpaired text-only data is used to supplement paired audio-text data, has shown promising improvements for word error rate. This study examines the use of text injection for auxiliary tasks, which are the non-ASR tasks often performed by an E2E model. In this work, we use joint end-to-end and internal language model training (JEIT) as our text injection algorithm to train an ASR model which performs two auxiliary tasks. The first is capitalization, which is a de-normalization task. The second is turn-taking prediction, which attempts to identify whether a user has completed their conversation turn in a digital assistant interaction. We show results demonstrating that our text injection method boosts capitalization performance for long-tail data, and improves turn-taking detection recall.

A demonstration of a real-time and continuous turn-taking prediction system is presented. The system is based on a voice activity projection (VAP) model, which directly maps dialogue stereo audio to future voice activities. The VAP model includes contrastive predictive coding (CPC) and self-attention transformers, followed by a cross-attention transformer. We examine the effect of the input context audio length and demonstrate that the proposed system can operate in real-time with CPU settings, with minimal performance degradation.

Managing natural dialogue timing is a significant challenge for voice-based chatbots. Most current systems usually rely on simple silence detection, which often fails because human speech patterns involve irregular pauses. This causes bots to interrupt users, breaking the conversational flow. This problem is even more severe for languages like Turkish, which lack high-quality datasets for turn-taking prediction. This paper introduces Syn-TurnTurk, a synthetic Turkish dialogue dataset generated using various Qwen Large Language Models (LLMs) to mirror real-life verbal exchanges, including overlaps and strategic silences. We evaluated the dataset using several traditional and deep learning architectures. The results show that advanced models, particularly BI-LSTM and Ensemble (LR+RF) methods, achieve high accuracy (0.839) and AUC scores (0.910). These findings demonstrate that our synthetic dataset can have a positive affect for models understand linguistic cues, allowing for more natural human-machine interaction in Turkish.

Despite recent advances, efficient and robust turn-taking detection remains a significant challenge in industrial-grade Voice AI agent deployments. Many existing systems rely solely on acoustic or semantic cues, leading to suboptimal accuracy and stability, while recent attempts to endow large language models with full-duplex capabilities require costly full-duplex data and incur substantial training and deployment overheads, limiting real-time performance. In this paper, we propose JAL-Turn, a lightweight and efficient speech-only turn-taking framework that adopts a joint acoustic-linguistic modeling paradigm, in which a cross-attention module adaptively integrates pre-trained acoustic representations with linguistic features to support low-latency prediction of hold vs shift states. By sharing a frozen ASR encoder, JAL-Turn enables turn-taking prediction to run fully in parallel with speech recognition, introducing no additional end-to-end latency or computational overhead. In addition, we introduce a scalable data construction pipeline that automatically derives reliable turn-taking labels from large-scale real-world dialogue corpora. Extensive experiments on public multilingual benchmarks and an in-house Japanese customer-service dataset show that JAL-Turn consistently outperforms strong state-of-the-art baselines in detection accuracy while maintaining superior real-time performance.

Inspired by the impressive capabilities of GPT-4o, there is growing interest in enabling speech language models (SLMs) to engage in natural, fluid spoken interactions with humans. Recent advancements have led to the development of several SLMs that demonstrate promising results in this area. However, current approaches have yet to fully exploit dual-channel speech data, which inherently captures the structure and dynamics of human conversation. In this work, we systematically explore the use of dual-channel speech data in the context of modern large language models, and introduce a novel generative modeling paradigm, Next-Token-Pair Prediction (NTPP), to enable speaker-independent dual-channel spoken dialogue learning using decoder-only architectures for the first time. We evaluate our approach on standard benchmarks, and empirical results show that our proposed method, NTPP, significantly improves the conversational abilities of SLMs in terms of turn-taking prediction, response coherence, and naturalness. Moreover, compared to existing methods, NTPP achieves substantially lower inference latency, highlighting its practical efficiency for real-time applications.

Dialogue models falter in noisy, multi-speaker environments, often producing irrelevant responses and awkward turn-taking. We present AV-Dialog, the first multimodal dialog framework that uses both audio and visual cues to track the target speaker, predict turn-taking, and generate coherent responses. By combining acoustic tokenization with multi-task, multi-stage training on monadic, synthetic, and real audio-visual dialogue datasets, AV-Dialog achieves robust streaming transcription, semantically grounded turn-boundary detection and accurate responses, resulting in a natural conversational flow. Experiments show that AV-Dialog outperforms audio-only models under interference, reducing transcription errors, improving turn-taking prediction, and enhancing human-rated dialogue quality. These results highlight the power of seeing as well as hearing for speaker-aware interaction, paving the way for {spoken} dialogue agents that perform {robustly} in real-world, noisy environments.

The modeling of turn-taking in dialog can be viewed as the modeling of the dynamics of voice activity of the interlocutors. We extend prior work and define the predictive task of Voice Activity Projection, a general, self-supervised objective, as a way to train turn-taking models without the need of labeled data. We highlight a theoretical weakness with prior approaches, arguing for the need of modeling the dependency of voice activity events in the projection window. We propose four zero-shot tasks, related to the prediction of upcoming turn-shifts and backchannels, and show that the proposed model outperforms prior work.

Turn-taking is a central component of full-duplex interaction. Which turn-taking behaviors are appropriate varies with the scenario, yet current models apply a single norm regardless of context. This limitation originates in their training data: human-human speech corpora capture natural timing phenomena but provide little role grounding or scenario-specific norms, while heuristic or prompted synthesis methods inject turn-taking behaviors without basing them on human preferences. We introduce DuplexGen, a framework for generating dialogues with scenario-adaptive turn-taking by calibrating LLM predictions against a small set of slot-level human preference annotations. In six cooperative and competitive tasks, human turn-taking preferences differ systematically, and DuplexGen aligns substantially more closely with those preferences than uncalibrated prompting or training solely on generic human-human data; a full-duplex model trained on DuplexGen-generated data exhibits distinctive, human-preferred turn-taking behaviors. These results show that human calibration, not corpus scale or prompt design alone, is what allows turn-taking synthesis to be scenario-specific.

Accurate and responsive turn-taking is essential for spoken dialogue systems, which must distinguish in real time between user interruptions, backchannels that should be ignored, and the completion of an utterance. Prior modular approaches typically optimize turn state prediction at the utterance or fixed-chunk level, creating a mismatch with the continuous turn state estimate, and often depend on an auxiliary ASR model, which limits responsiveness and increases overall system complexity. Therefore, we present X2-Turn, a frame-synchronous turn state prediction method via delayed-stream modeling. Specifically, building on the pretrained Voxtral Realtime model, we introduce a frame-synchronous turn state head that operates in parallel with the ASR head on shared streaming representations, jointly predicting ASR tokens and fine-grained turn states at the frame level. We evaluate our method on the bilingual Chinese-English Easy-Turn test sets, and the results demonstrate its effectiveness in achieving accurate turn-taking detection while maintaining low latency.

Achieving full-duplex communication in spoken dialogue systems (SDS) requires real-time coordination between listening, speaking, and thinking. This paper proposes a semantic voice activity detection (VAD) module as a dialogue manager (DM) to efficiently manage turn-taking in full-duplex SDS. Implemented as a lightweight (0.5B) LLM fine-tuned on full-duplex conversation data, the semantic VAD predicts four control tokens to regulate turn-switching and turn-keeping, distinguishing between intentional and unintentional barge-ins while detecting query completion for handling user pauses and hesitations. By processing input speech in short intervals, the semantic VAD enables real-time decision-making, while the core dialogue engine (CDE) is only activated for response generation, reducing computational overhead. This design allows independent DM optimization without retraining the CDE, balancing interaction accuracy and inference efficiency for scalable, next-generation full-duplex SDS.

Turn-taking is a crucial aspect of human-robot interaction, directly influencing conversational fluidity and user engagement. While previous research has explored turn-taking models in controlled environments, their robustness in real-world settings remains underexplored. In this study, we propose a noise-robust voice activity projection (VAP) model, based on a Transformer architecture, to enhance real-time turn-taking in dialogue robots. To evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed system, we conducted a field experiment in a shopping mall, comparing the VAP system with a conventional cloud-based speech recognition system. Our analysis covered both subjective user evaluations and objective behavioral analysis. The results showed that the proposed system significantly reduced response latency, leading to a more natural conversation where both the robot and users responded faster. The subjective evaluations suggested that faster responses contribute to a better interaction experience.

General turn-taking behavior in real-time dialogue systems requires deciding whether to keep listening or start responding while listening, and whether to continue or stop while speaking. Existing turn detectors use heterogeneous, task-specific label spaces and are often trained on limited annotations or evaluated on isolated utterances, making them difficult to use as a unified causal controller with comprehensive context. We propose XTurnix, a compact text-based model that formulates turn control as two binary decisions conditioned on the AI's current listening or speaking state and predicts a single control token from the complete dialogue history. XTurnix is pretrained on 5.5 million causal action examples automatically derived from timestamped two-speaker transcripts, then fine-tuned on synthetic multi-turn examples with a flatter distribution across the four state-action labels. We evaluate XTurnix on four public benchmarks and a balanced self-curated benchmark. Across the public benchmarks, XTurnix achieves the best results on all SemanticVAD and LiveKit splits, ties the native Smart-Turn model on Smart-Turn Bench, and achieves the highest incomplete-turn accuracy on Easy-Turn. On the self-curated benchmark, it reaches 89.06% accuracy, more than 20 percentage points above the strongest third-party baseline at 68.75%, while maintaining F1 scores between 84.21% and 90.63% across all four categories. These results demonstrate unified listening- and speaking-state turn control in a single compact model. Code is available at https://github.com/xcc-zach/xturnix, with an interactive demo at https://huggingface.co/spaces/xcczach/xturnix-demo.

The recent wave of audio foundation models (FMs) could provide new capabilities for conversational modeling. However, there have been limited efforts to evaluate these audio FMs comprehensively on their ability to have natural and interactive conversations. To engage in meaningful conversation with the end user, we would want the FMs to additionally perform a fluent succession of turns without too much overlapping speech or long stretches of silence. Inspired by this, we ask whether the recently proposed audio FMs can understand, predict, and perform turn-taking events? To answer this, we propose a novel evaluation protocol that can assess spoken dialog system's turn-taking capabilities using a supervised model as a judge that has been trained to predict turn-taking events in human-human conversations. Using this protocol, we present the first comprehensive user study that evaluates existing spoken dialogue systems on their ability to perform turn-taking events and reveal many interesting insights, such as they sometimes do not understand when to speak up, can interrupt too aggressively and rarely backchannel. We further evaluate multiple open-source and proprietary audio FMs accessible through APIs on carefully curated test benchmarks from Switchboard to measure their ability to understand and predict turn-taking events and identify significant room for improvement. We will open source our evaluation platform to promote the development of advanced conversational AI systems.

While confidence estimation is a promising direction for mitigating hallucinations in Large Language Models (LLMs), current research dominantly focuses on single-turn settings. The dynamics of model confidence in multi-turn conversations, where context accumulates and ambiguity is progressively resolved, remain largely unexplored. Reliable confidence estimation in multi-turn settings is critical for many downstream applications, such as autonomous agents and human-in-the-loop systems. This work presents the first systematic study of confidence estimation in multi-turn interactions, establishing a formal evaluation framework grounded in two key desiderata: per-turn calibration and monotonicity of confidence as more information becomes available. To facilitate this, we introduce novel metrics, including a length-normalized Expected Calibration Error (InfoECE), and a new "Hinter-Guesser" paradigm for generating controlled evaluation datasets. Our experiments reveal that widely-used confidence techniques struggle with calibration and monotonicity in multi-turn dialogues. We propose P(Sufficient), a logit-based probe that achieves comparatively better performance, although the task remains far from solved. Our work provides a foundational methodology for developing more reliable and trustworthy conversational agents.

Speakers in natural conversation take turns speaking and listening, deciding in real time when to take, hold, or yield the floor. However, turn-taking evaluation remains limited due to the lack of a consistent, linguistically grounded evaluation protocol and hand-annotated data covering diverse conversation types. To address this, we present TurnBench, a multi-domain benchmark that pairs a 30-hour, hand-labeled corpus of dyadic human conversation with a standardized evaluation protocol for end-of-turn and interruption detection. We set conversation type as a controllable experimental variable, covering six distinct interaction styles, and triple-annotate each conversation. Benchmarking 14 heterogeneous turn-taking systems, we find end-of-turn recall stable across types, while interruption false positives are strongly type-dependent and concentrated in backchannel-dense interaction styles. Although in smooth floor transfers human listeners begin speaking a median 151 ms before the current turn ends, no current system performs equivalently without incurring excessive false positives. We release our corpus, a 104-hour training set, and a public leaderboard with an interactive dataset viewer at https://turnbench.sesame.com

Speech-to-speech models handle turn-taking naturally but offer limited support for tool-calling or complex reasoning, while production ASR-LLM-TTS voice pipelines offer these capabilities but rely on silence timeouts, which lead to unnatural turn-taking. We present DualTurn, which narrows this gap through generative pretraining on dual-channel conversational audio. The model generates both speakers' future audio autoregressively, implicitly learning conversational dynamics without any labels, and is then fine-tuned to predict interpretable turn-taking signals that map directly to agent actions. DualTurn monitors both channels continuously, anticipating turn boundaries and producing five agent actions. On standard benchmarks, DualTurn (0.5B) outperforms both VAP on agent action prediction (wF1 0.633 vs. 0.389) and a 3.1B audio-text model on word-level turn prediction (AUC 0.930 vs. 0.880), while anticipating turn boundaries earlier with fewer interruptions.

Full-duplex interaction is crucial for natural human-machine communication, yet remains challenging as it requires robust turn-taking detection to decide when the system should speak, listen, or remain silent. Existing solutions either rely on dedicated turn-taking models, most of which are not open-sourced. The few available ones are limited by their large parameter size or by supporting only a single modality, such as acoustic or linguistic. Alternatively, some approaches finetune LLM backbones to enable full-duplex capability, but this requires large amounts of full-duplex data, which remain scarce in open-source form. To address these issues, we propose Easy Turn, an open-source, modular turn-taking detection model that integrates acoustic and linguistic bimodal information to predict four dialogue turn states: complete, incomplete, backchannel, and wait, accompanied by the release of Easy Turn trainset, a 1,145-hour speech dataset designed for training turn-taking detection models. Compared to existing open-source models like TEN Turn Detection and Smart Turn V2, our model achieves state-of-the-art turn-taking detection accuracy on our open-source Easy Turn testset. The data and model will be made publicly available on GitHub.

Real-time voice agents have moved from research prototypes to production deployments, yet the literature describing them is fragmented across three communities that rarely cite one another: speech foundation modelling, turn-taking psycholinguistics, and agentic evaluation. Architecture papers report latency, turn-taking papers report prediction accuracy, and agentic benchmarks report task success, so no single number describes whether a deployed agent is actually good. We address that gap with three evidence-based claims, each traceable to a corpus of 38 primary sources organised into an application-centric taxonomy of six categories. First, architecture choice is a deployment constraint rather than a settled verdict: a 2026 enterprise tutorial reports that no fully self-hostable end-to-end system yet meets production constraints, while a chunked cascade independently reaches state-of-the-art duplex behaviour, showing duplex behaviour is separable from duplex architecture. Second, evaluation has shifted decisively from component quality toward grounded outcomes, with recent benchmarks verifying backend state rather than trusting what the agent claims to have done. Third, the dyadic assumption in most models and benchmarks is breaking down: multiparty turn-taking and multi-speaker reasoning benchmarks show that deciding when not to speak, and reasoning about who may be told what, are first-class capabilities two-participant framings cannot measure. For each source we state the problem it targets, its mechanism, and its reported evidence, alongside the search strategy, inclusion criteria, and a verification step that caught a misattributed arXiv identifier in circulation. We propose TRG (Timing-Recovery-Grounded), a reporting standard characterising an agent by timing, post-disruption recovery, and state-verified outcome together, with a conditional fourth axis for multiparty deployments.

In conversational AI, detecting when a speaker has finished talking is crucial for natural turn taking. While recent work incorporates semantics, the relative contribution of different modalities remains unclear. We present a controlled ablation of acoustic, prosodic, and semantic signals for streaming end of turn detection using a lightweight trimodal classifier. Under identical training conditions, the acoustic prosodic combination achieves the best balance of accuracy and latency, achieving utterance F1 of 0.93 with 7.8% false alarms at 400ms median latency. Adding text increases premature detections without improving performance. Feature space analysis confirms that prosodic features have the strongest class separability, while text representations overlap substantially. These findings suggest that turn-taking is primarily conveyed through intonation and silence patterns rather than semantic completeness, enabling faster and more reliable systems without expensive text inference.

Turn-taking modeling is fundamental to spoken dialogue systems, yet its evaluation remains fragmented and often limited to binary boundary detection under narrow interaction settings. Such protocols hinder systematic comparison and obscure model weaknesses across conversational conditions. We present CoDeTT, a context-aware decision benchmark for turn-taking evaluation. CoDeTT formulates turn-taking as a structured decision problem and constructs a multi-scenario dataset with fine-grained decision categories and controlled context variations. Under a unified evaluation protocol, we assess representative existing models and observe substantial performance disparities across decision types and interaction scenarios. CoDeTT provides a standardized benchmark for systematic and context-aware evaluation of turn-taking systems. The benchmark dataset and evaluation toolkit are available at https://github.com/YingaoWang-casia/CoDeTT.github.io.

The Neural Finite State Machine (NFSM) framework offers a pragmatic path to full-duplex dialogue by serializing turn-taking control and response generation onto a single causal tape under the standard next-token prediction objective, thereby preserving semantic prowess at a low fine-tuning cost. However, its reliance on synthetic text data fundamentally limits turn-taking naturalness, as Large Language Models (LLMs) cannot faithfully simulate the fine-grained acoustic temporal dynamics of real human dialogues. In this work, we propose a decoupled data approach that learns turn-taking from real Human-Human (HH) spoken dialogues while shaping semantic behavior through configurable Human-Agent (HA) text dialogues. To operationalize this approach, we introduce a rule-based event-guided data transformation method that serializes HH spoken dialogues into FSM tapes by classifying turn-taking events and applying deterministic mapping rules, enabling scalable supervision without LLM-generated annotations. We further propose a Source-Aware Calibrated (SAC) Loss that jointly calibrates the long-tailed distribution of state transition tokens and channels each data source toward the capability it best supervises. Experiments show that our approach substantially improves turn-taking proficiency while recovering the foundation LLM's semantic capability. Our code and model are available at https://github.com/Liyht/def-fsm.

Achieving seamless, human-like interaction remains a key challenge for full-duplex spoken dialogue models (SDMs). Reinforcement learning (RL) has substantially enhanced text- and vision-language models, while well-designed reward signals are crucial for the performance of RL. We consider RL a promising strategy to address the key challenge for SDMs. However, a fundamental barrier persists: prevailing automated metrics for assessing interaction quality rely on superficial proxies, such as behavioral statistics or timing-prediction accuracy, failing to provide reliable reward signals for RL. On the other hand, human evaluations, despite their richness, remain costly, inconsistent, and difficult to scale. We tackle this critical barrier by proposing a Dual-Axis Generative Reward Model, which is trained to understand complex interaction dynamics using a detailed taxonomy and an annotated dataset, produces a single score and, crucially, provides separate evaluations for semantic quality and interaction timing. Such dual outputs furnish precise diagnostic feedback for SDMs and deliver a dependable, instructive reward signal suitable for online reinforcement learning. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance on interaction-quality assessment across a wide spectrum of datasets, spanning synthetic dialogues and complex real-world interactions.

Existing open-domain dialog models are generally trained to minimize the perplexity of target human responses. However, some human replies are more engaging than others, spawning more followup interactions. Current conversational models are increasingly capable of producing turns that are context-relevant, but in order to produce compelling agents, these models need to be able to predict and optimize for turns that are genuinely engaging. We leverage social media feedback data (number of replies and upvotes) to build a large-scale training dataset for feedback prediction. To alleviate possible distortion between the feedback and engagingness, we convert the ranking problem to a comparison of response pairs which involve few confounding factors. We trained DialogRPT, a set of GPT-2 based models on 133M pairs of human feedback data and the resulting ranker outperformed several baselines. Particularly, our ranker outperforms the conventional dialog perplexity baseline with a large margin on predicting Reddit feedback. We finally combine the feedback prediction models and a human-like scoring model to rank the machine-generated dialog responses. Crowd-sourced human evaluation shows that our ranking method correlates better with real human preferences than baseline models.

We present TagSpeech, a unified LLM-based framework that utilizes Temporal Anchor Grounding for joint multi-speaker ASR and diarization. The framework is built on two key designs: (1) decoupled semantic and speaker streams fine-tuned via Serialized Output Training (SOT) to learn turn-taking dynamics; and (2) an interleaved time anchor mechanism that not only supports fine-grained timestamp prediction but also acts as a synchronization signal between semantic understanding and speaker tracking. Compared to previous works that primarily focus on speaker-attributed ASR or implicit diarization, TagSpeech addresses the challenge of fine-grained speaker-content alignment and explicitly models "who spoke what and when" in an end-to-end manner. Experiments on AMI and AliMeeting benchmarks demonstrate that our method achieves consistent improvements in Diarization Error Rate (DER) over strong end-to-end baselines, including Qwen-Omni and Gemini, particularly in handling complex speech overlaps. Moreover, TagSpeech employs a parameter-efficient training paradigm in which the LLM backbone is frozen and only lightweight projectors are trained, resulting in strong performance with low computational cost.

Deployed large reasoning models (LRMs) often behave unexpectedly. Test-time steering controls LRM outputs by intervening on their hidden representations, but it can degrade output quality. We argue that prior steering work implicitly relies on internal features that detect behavior in already generated text. We show that these detection features are poor predictors of future behavioral outcomes, and thus not the natural intervention target. Instead, we train activation probes to predict future behavior likelihoods from intermediate reasoning steps. These probes predict the most likely behavior with 64%-91% accuracy, revealing a separate type of internal prediction features. Building on these prediction features, we introduce a text-level steering method, Future Probe Controlled Generation. FPCG samples multiple candidate sentences and chooses the best one according to a probe predicting the future behavior likelihood. This enables steering with almost no output quality degradation. FPCG also enables steering in several evaluations where activation steering fails. These results show that distinguishing detection and prediction features enables a more nuanced approach to controlling LRM behaviors.

Standard LLM benchmarks evaluate the assistant turn: the model generates a response to an input, a verifier scores correctness, and the analysis ends. This paradigm leaves unmeasured whether the LLM encodes any awareness of what follows the assistant response. We propose user-turn generation as a probe of this gap: given a conversation context of user query and assistant response, we let a model generate under the user role. If the model's weights encode interaction awareness, the generated user turn will be a grounded follow-up that reacts to the preceding context. Through experiments across 11 open-weight LLMs (Qwen3.5, gpt-oss, GLM) and 5 datasets (math reasoning, instruction following, conversation), we show that interaction awareness is decoupled from task accuracy. In particular, within the Qwen3.5 family, GSM8K accuracy scales from 41% (0.8B) to 96.8% (397B-A17B), yet genuine follow-up rates under deterministic generation remain near zero. In contrast, higher temperature sampling reveals interaction awareness is latent with follow up rates reaching 22%. Controlled perturbations validate that the proposed probe measures a real property of the model, and collaboration-oriented post-training on Qwen3.5-2B demonstrates an increase in follow-up rates. Our results show that user-turn generation captures a dimension of LLM behavior, interaction awareness, that is unexplored and invisible with current assistant-only benchmarks.

Existing voice AI assistants treat every detected pause as an invitation to speak. This works in dyadic dialogue, but in multi-party settings, where an AI assistant participates alongside multiple speakers, pauses are abundant and ambiguous. An assistant that speaks on every pause becomes disruptive rather than useful. In this work, we formulate context-aware turn-taking: at every detected pause, given the full conversation context, our method decides whether the assistant should speak or stay silent. We introduce a benchmark of over 120K labeled conversations spanning three multi-party corpora. Evaluating eight recent large language models, we find that they consistently fail at context-aware turn-taking under zero-shot prompting. We then propose a supervised fine-tuning approach with reasoning traces, improving balanced accuracy by up to 23 percentage points. Our findings suggest that context-aware turn-taking is not an emergent capability; it must be explicitly trained.

Activation-based steering can personalize large language models at inference time, but its effects in educational settings remain unclear. We study persona vectors for seven character traits in short-answer generation and automated scoring on the ASAP-SAS benchmark across three models spanning two architectures. Persona steering lowers answer quality overall, with much larger effects on open-ended English Language Arts (ELA) prompts than on factual science prompts; interpretive and argumentative tasks are up to 11x more sensitive. On the scoring side, we observe predictable valence-aligned calibration shifts: evil and impolite scorers grade more harshly, while good and optimistic scorers grade more leniently. ELA tasks are 2.5-3x more susceptible to scorer personalization than science tasks, and the Mixture-of-Experts model shows roughly 6x larger calibration shifts than the dense models. To our knowledge, this is the first study to systematically examine the effects of activation-steered persona traits in educational generation and scoring, and the results highlight the need for task-aware and architecture-aware calibration when deploying steered models in educational settings.

Large language models interact with users through a simulated 'Assistant' persona. While the Assistant is typically trained to be helpful, harmless, and honest, it sometimes deviates from these ideals. In this paper, we identify directions in the model's activation space-persona vectors-underlying several traits, such as evil, sycophancy, and propensity to hallucinate. We confirm that these vectors can be used to monitor fluctuations in the Assistant's personality at deployment time. We then apply persona vectors to predict and control personality shifts that occur during training. We find that both intended and unintended personality changes after finetuning are strongly correlated with shifts along the relevant persona vectors. These shifts can be mitigated through post-hoc intervention, or avoided in the first place with a new preventative steering method. Moreover, persona vectors can be used to flag training data that will produce undesirable personality changes, both at the dataset level and the individual sample level. Our method for extracting persona vectors is automated and can be applied to any personality trait of interest, given only a natural-language description.

When users can benefit from certain predictive outcomes, they may be prone to act to achieve those outcome, e.g., by strategically modifying their features. The goal in strategic classification is therefore to train predictive models that are robust to such behavior. However, the conventional framework assumes that changing features does not change actual outcomes, which depicts users as "gaming" the system. Here we remove this assumption, and study learning in a causal strategic setting where true outcomes do change. Focusing on accuracy as our primary objective, we show how strategic behavior and causal effects underlie two complementing forms of distribution shift. We characterize these shifts, and propose a learning algorithm that balances between these two forces and over time, and permits end-to-end training. Experiments on synthetic and semi-synthetic data demonstrate the utility of our approach.

Using offline datasets to evaluate conversational agents often fails to cover rare scenarios or to support testing new policies. This has motivated the use of controllable user simulators for targeted, counterfactual evaluation, typically implemented by prompting or fine-tuning large language models. In this work, we formalize controllable simulation as a causal inference problem. By bridging natural language evaluation with off-policy evaluation methodology, we show that the standard practice of training simulators via supervised fine-tuning on post-hoc trajectory labels yields a structurally biased model. Specifically, these labels are inextricably coupled to the data-generating behavior policy, injecting a look-ahead bias that breaks causal consistency. Furthermore, we prove that under policy shift this failure causes the variance of evaluation metrics to explode geometrically, a phenomenon we term controllability collapse. To restore causal consistency, we establish theoretical conditions for accurate simulation and propose practical training mitigations: a priori controls, step-wise dynamic controls, and direct policy-conditioned learning. Empirical evaluation confirms that while standard global controls distort conversational distributions and collapse behavioral diversity, our causally grounded simulators eliminate look-ahead bias, preserve natural variance, and exhibit robust zero-shot generalization to unseen agent behaviors.

Despite investments in improving model safety, studies show that misaligned capabilities remain latent in safety-tuned models. In this work, we shed light on the mechanics of this phenomenon. First, we show that even when model generations are safe, harmful content can persist in hidden representations and can be extracted by decoding from earlier layers. Then, we show that whether the model divulges such content depends significantly on its perception of who it is talking to, which we refer to as user persona. In fact, we find manipulating user persona to be even more effective for eliciting harmful content than direct attempts to control model refusal. We study both natural language prompting and activation steering as control methods and show that activation steering is significantly more effective at bypassing safety filters. We investigate why certain personas break model safeguards and find that they enable the model to form more charitable interpretations of otherwise dangerous queries. Finally, we show we can predict a persona's effect on refusal given only the geometry of its steering vector.

Large language models are increasingly used as decision aids whose probability judgments shape downstream choices. Whether those judgments carry a systematic directional tilt has been hard to detect: calibration metrics aggregate unsigned errors, and naturalistic uncertainty offers no ground-truth probability. When an LLM rates a startup's success at 70% but its failure at 15%, the missing 15 points expose a distortion no aggregate score flags. We introduce OptimismBench, which detects directional bias with inverted pairs: each scenario elicits both P(success) and P(failure), and asymmetry between the two framings yields a signed bias score without ground truth. Across 16 models from 8 providers, fourteen are optimistic; pessimism appears only in Anthropic's frontier tier. Eleven matched base-versus-chat pairs across four families show post-training sets the sign of the bias, with opposite shifts in different families. The pattern survives prompt, temperature, perspective, and self-debiasing ablations. A seventeen-model six-language comparison further shows model identity dominates language, with inter-model variance at 4.7x inter-language variance. We release 3,870 items across 10 languages for per-model directional-bias auditing. When alignment makes a model more helpful, it also tilts its probabilities; downstream pipelines inherit the tilt by default.

Full-duplex spoken language models (FD-SLMs) enable seamless speech interaction by allowing models to listen and speak simultaneously, yet the internal mechanism by which they coordinate listening and speaking remains underexplored. We analyze the predictive behavior encoded in FD-SLM hidden representations and find that they exhibit stream-specific predictive patterns: during listening, they preferentially predict the incoming user stream, whereas during speaking, they preferentially predict the model output stream. Building on this observation, we show that FD-SLMs dynamically modulate their internal predictive focus between two states: a generative state aligned with model output generation and a perceptive state aligned with incoming user input. However, this modulation can lag behind abrupt changes in conversational context. During user interruptions, the model remains transiently biased toward the generative state before transitioning into the perceptive state, causing it to miss the beginning of the incoming input. We term this delayed internal transition state inertia. To quantify its downstream impact, we introduce the Zero-Buffer Benchmark (ZBB), a diagnostic benchmark for evaluating immediate interruption comprehension when user speech begins abruptly. We evaluate this setting using response correctness and initial-word occurrence rate (IWOR). Finally, we mitigate state inertia through activation steering with a perception vector, a training-free intervention with little additional computational overhead. Across multiple state-of-the-art FD-SLMs, activation steering substantially improves interruption handling; for example, on PersonaPlex, it improves correctness from 28% to 45% and IWOR from 40% to 72% without any fine-tuning.

Time-series forecasters are ranked almost entirely by accuracy metrics, but a forecast's decision value, its effect on the downstream decision, need not track accuracy and is rarely measured. This problem compounds as large language model (LLM) agents increasingly consume forecasters as tools, mediating them through stochastic, opaque policies. We present Vendster, an evaluation arena measuring how a forecaster's bias and prediction-interval width change the outcome of a buyer--vendor discount negotiation between two LLM agents. In the reference instance Vendster-M5, sampling base demand patterns from the M5 dataset, we evaluate two frontier-closed LLM families (Claude Opus 4.6 and GPT-5.6 Sol) and two open ones (DeepSeek-V3.2 and Qwen3-235B-A22B). Model-generated forecasts raise sales target attainment by up to +17 percentage points (p<0.001), yet standard forecast evaluation metrics such as relWQL and MASE do not predict negotiation outcomes at a statistically significant level. To isolate the causal structure, we substitute in synthetic forecasts with controlled bias and interval width. Under-prediction bias significantly improves outcomes for agents that react more to the forecasts---dose-response slopes -0.387 and -0.416 (p<0.001). Interval width has no statistically significant effect at zero bias. These findings indicate that the direction of forecast bias and agent forecast-reactivity are more strongly associated with downstream outcomes than forecast accuracy. Vendster is fully customizable and released under CC BY-NC 4.0 at https://github.com/amazon-science/Vendster.

Scientific Deep Research (DR) agents answer user queries by synthesizing research papers into multi-section reports. User feedback can improve their utility, but existing protocols only score the final report, making it hard to study and learn which intermediate actions DR agents should take to improve reports. We collect DRACULA, the first dataset with user feedback on intermediate actions for DR. Over five weeks, nineteen expert CS researchers ask queries to a DR system that proposes actions (e.g., "Add a section on datasets"). Our users select actions they prefer, then judge whether an output report applied their selections successfully, yielding 8,103 action preferences and 5,230 execution judgments. After confirming a DR agent can execute DRACULA's actions, we study the predictability of user-preferred actions via simulation-how well LLMs predict the actions users select-a step toward learning to generate useful actions. We discover: (1) LLM judges initially struggle to predict action selections, but improve most when using a user's full selection history, rather than self-reported or extrapolated user context signals; (2) Users' selections for the same query differ based on unstated goals, bottlenecking simulation and motivating affordances that let users steer reports; and (3) Our simulation results inform an online intervention that generates new actions based on the user's past interactions, which users pick most often in follow-up studies. Overall, while work extensively studies execution, DRACULA reveals a key challenge is deciding which actions to execute in the first place. We open-source DRACULA's study design, user feedback, and simulation tasks to spur future work on action feedback for long-horizon agents.

Large Language Models (LLMs) display remarkable capabilities to understand or even produce political discourse but have been found to consistently exhibit a progressive left-leaning bias. At the same time, so-called persona or identity prompts have been shown to produce LLM behavior that aligns with socioeconomic groups with which the base model is not aligned. In this work, we analyze whether zero-shot persona prompting with limited information can accurately predict individual voting decisions and, by aggregation, accurately predict the positions of European groups on a diverse set of policies. We evaluate whether predictions are stable in response to counterfactual arguments, different persona prompts, and generation methods. Finally, we find that we can simulate the voting behavior of Members of the European Parliament reasonably well, achieving a weighted F1 score of approximately 0.793. Our persona dataset of politicians in the 2024 European Parliament and our code are available at the following url: https://github.com/dess-mannheim/european_parliament_simulation.

Large language models can represent a variety of personas but typically default to a helpful Assistant identity cultivated during post-training. We investigate the structure of the space of model personas by extracting activation directions corresponding to diverse character archetypes. Across several different models, we find that the leading component of this persona space is an "Assistant Axis," which captures the extent to which a model is operating in its default Assistant mode. Steering towards the Assistant direction reinforces helpful and harmless behavior; steering away increases the model's tendency to identify as other entities. Moreover, steering away with more extreme values often induces a mystical, theatrical speaking style. We find this axis is also present in pre-trained models, where it primarily promotes helpful human archetypes like consultants and coaches and inhibits spiritual ones. Measuring deviations along the Assistant Axis predicts "persona drift," a phenomenon where models slip into exhibiting harmful or bizarre behaviors that are uncharacteristic of their typical persona. We find that persona drift is often driven by conversations demanding meta-reflection on the model's processes or featuring emotionally vulnerable users. We show that restricting activations to a fixed region along the Assistant Axis can stabilize model behavior in these scenarios -- and also in the face of adversarial persona-based jailbreaks. Our results suggest that post-training steers models toward a particular region of persona space but only loosely tethers them to it, motivating work on training and steering strategies that more deeply anchor models to a coherent persona.

While low-latency interaction is critical for spoken dialogue, cascaded architectures are often bottlenecked by reactive turn-completion detection. We propose Endpoint Anticipation, shifting from reactive detection to proactive forecasting of end-of-turn signals. Our speech-based model anticipates endpoints upto 2.56 seconds in advance, enabling speculative execution of LLM and TTS pipelines on partial context. We introduce metrics to quantify the trade-off between realized latency reduction and computational redundancy. Evaluation across conversational and task-oriented datasets shows our model consistently outperforms competitive VAP-based baselines. Integration with the Unmute framework demonstrates a 505 ms average latency reduction with a 28.4% increase in speculative computation, effectively masking sequential bottlenecks to enable complex reasoning in real-time speech-to-speech interaction.

Large language model (LLM) agents often exhibit abrupt shifts in tone and persona during extended interaction, reflecting the absence of explicit temporal structure governing agent-level state. While prior work emphasizes turn-local sentiment or static emotion classification, the role of explicit affective dynamics in shaping long-horizon agent behavior remains underexplored. This work investigates whether imposing dynamical structure on an external affective state can induce temporal coherence and controlled recovery in multi-turn dialogue. We introduce an agent-level affective subsystem that maintains a continuous Valence-Arousal-Dominance (VAD) state external to the language model and governed by first- and second-order update rules. Instantaneous affective signals are extracted using a fixed, memoryless estimator and integrated over time via exponential smoothing or momentum-based dynamics. The resulting affective state is injected back into generation without modifying model parameters. Using a fixed 25-turn dialogue protocol, we compare stateless, first-order, and second-order affective dynamics. Stateless agents fail to exhibit coherent trajectories or recovery, while state persistence enables delayed responses and reliable recovery. Second-order dynamics introduce affective inertia and hysteresis that increase with momentum, revealing a trade-off between stability and responsiveness.

As mobile robots are increasingly deployed in human environments, enabling them to predict how people perceive them is critical for socially adaptable navigation. Predicting perceptions is challenging for two main reasons: (1) HRI prediction models must learn from limited data, and (2) the obtained models must be interpretable to enable safe and effective interactions. Interpretability is particularly important when a robot is perceived as incompetent (e.g., when the robot suddenly stops or rotates away from the goal), as it allows the robot to explain its reasoning and identify controllable factors to improve performance, requiring causal rather than associative reasoning. To address these challenges, we propose a Causal Bayesian Network designed to predict how people perceive a mobile robot's competence and how they interpret its intent during navigation. Additionally, we introduce a novel method to improve perceived robot competence employing a combinatorial search, guided by the proposed causal model, to identify better navigation behaviors. Our method enhances interpretability and generates counterfactual robot motions while achieving comparable or superior predictive performance to state-of-the-art methods, reaching an F1-score of 0.78 and 0.75 for competence and intention on a binary scale. To further assess our method's ability to improve the perceived robot competence, we conducted an online evaluation in which users rated robot behaviors on a 5-point Likert scale. Our method statistically significantly increased the perceived competence of low-competent robot behavior by 83%.

The common toxicity and societal bias in contents generated by large language models (LLMs) necessitate strategies to reduce harm. Present solutions often demand white-box access to the model or substantial training, which is impractical for cutting-edge commercial LLMs. Moreover, prevailing prompting methods depend on external tool feedback and fail to simultaneously lessen toxicity and bias. Motivated by social psychology principles, we propose a novel strategy named perspective-taking prompting (\textsc{PeT)} that inspires LLMs to integrate diverse human perspectives and self-regulate their responses. This self-correction mechanism can significantly diminish toxicity (up to 89%) and bias (up to 73%) in LLMs' responses. Rigorous evaluations and ablation studies are conducted on two commercial LLMs (ChatGPT and GLM) and three open-source LLMs, revealing PeT's superiority in producing less harmful responses, outperforming five strong baselines.

Modern recommender systems treat observed actions as reliable proxies for user preferences, yet interactions often reflect exploration or comparison rather than stable preference expression. As interfaces evolve from static layouts toward generative UIs and immersive extended reality (XR), the need for deeper, modality-agnostic user understanding grows: these adaptive environments must decide not only what to present but where, when, how prominently, and most importantly why a user acts. We propose an Inverse Theory of Mind (IToM) pipeline that reasons backward from observed interactions to infer the beliefs, preferences, and decision-making traits that explain behavior. The pipeline reconstructs each user's decision context, including what was chosen and what alternatives were available, applies LLM-driven counterfactual reasoning to produce evidence-grounded natural-language belief statements, and synthesizes these beliefs through multi-hypothesis abductive inference into a structured user persona. We evaluate on the OPeRA dataset against ground-truth personality assessments, attitudinal surveys, and interview-based personas across four tasks: next action prediction, shopping attitude alignment, Big Five personality inference, and held-out category prediction. Results show that inferred personas match or exceed ground-truth personas and that multi-hypothesis reasoning is essential for accurate personality prediction. We further demonstrate cross-modal transferability with a persona-driven spatial banking application on VisionOS.

Accurate prediction of human behavior is essential for robust and safe human-AI collaboration. However, existing approaches for modeling people are often data-hungry and brittle because they either make unrealistic assumptions about rationality or are too computationally demanding to adapt rapidly. Our key insight is that many everyday social interactions may follow predictable patterns; efficient "scripts" that minimize cognitive load for actors and observers, e.g., "wait for the green light, then go." We propose modeling these routines as behavioral programs instantiated in computer code rather than policies conditioned on beliefs and desires. We introduce ROTE, a novel algorithm that leverages both large language models (LLMs) for synthesizing a hypothesis space of behavioral programs, and probabilistic inference for reasoning about uncertainty over that space. We test ROTE in a suite of gridworld tasks and a large-scale embodied household simulator. ROTE predicts human and AI behaviors from sparse observations, outperforming competitive baselines -- including behavior cloning and LLM-based methods -- by as much as 50% in terms of in-sample accuracy and out-of-sample generalization. By treating action understanding as a program synthesis problem, ROTE opens a path for AI systems to efficiently and effectively predict human behavior in the real-world.

Tool-Integrated Reasoning (TIR) enables LLMs to solve complex tasks through iterative tool interactions. However, existing reinforcement learning methods often rely on trajectory-level supervision, limiting fine-grained credit assignment in long-horizon TIR scenarios. On-policy self-distillation offers denser signals through teacher branches with privileged context, but existing approaches typically derive such context from ground-truth answers or retrieved skills, which may not reflect the states actually visited by the agent. Moreover, token-level supervision fails to capture the turn-level structure of tool interactions. To address this, we propose TurnSight, a turn-level hindsight self-distillation framework that derives supervision directly from execution-conditioned hindsight. It then constructs multiple hindsight views with different lookahead horizons and selects reliable supervision through cross-horizon directional agreement. Finally, the selected hindsight signal is normalized across sibling rollouts and used to adaptively modulate RL advantages while preserving their original optimization direction. Extensive experiments on three benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness of TurnSight. Our codes are available at https://github.com/quchangle1/TurnSight.

Human trajectory prediction is typically posed as a zero-shot generalization problem: a predictor is learnt on a dataset of human motion in training scenes, and then deployed on unseen test scenes. While this paradigm has yielded tremendous progress, it fundamentally assumes that trends in human behavior within the deployment scene are constant over time. As such, current prediction models are unable to adapt to scene-specific transient human behaviors, such as crowds temporarily gathering to see buskers, pedestrians hurrying through the rain and avoiding puddles, or a protest breaking out. We formalize the problem of scene-specific adaptive trajectory prediction and propose a new adaptation approach inspired by prompt tuning called latent corridors. By augmenting the input of any pre-trained human trajectory predictor with learnable image prompts, the predictor can improve in the deployment scene by inferring trends from extremely small amounts of new data (e.g., 2 humans observed for 30 seconds). With less than 0.1% additional model parameters, we see up to 23.9% ADE improvement in MOTSynth simulated data and 16.4% ADE in MOT and Wildtrack real pedestrian data. Qualitatively, we observe that latent corridors imbue predictors with an awareness of scene geometry and scene-specific human behaviors that non-adaptive predictors struggle to capture. The project website can be found at https://neerja.me/atp_latent_corridors/.

We present our submission to the EgoProactive track of the ECCV 2026 Wearable AI Challenge, which ranked first in the large-model division and second in the <=2B division. The task requires a wearable assistant to decide after each eight-second segment of egocentric video whether to intervene or remain silent. Our approach has two main components. First, we reformulate intervention timing as single-token classification. Rather than generating either interrupt<utterance> or silent, the model predicts yes or no, and we derive the decision from the renormalised probabilities of these two tokens. This formulation improved macro-F1 by 0.249 and G-mean by 0.30 over free-form generation. Second, because labelled data were limited to the released validation set, we generated additional supervision using a tool-calling video agent that inspects each clip and assigns intervention timestamps. A narration-only alternative was four times larger and ten times cheaper, but transferred worse than supervision from an unrelated real corpus, suggesting that visual grounding is more important than annotation volume for this task.

Conversational LLMs function as black box systems, leaving users guessing about why they see the output they do. This lack of transparency is potentially problematic, especially given concerns around bias and truthfulness. To address this issue, we present an end-to-end prototype-connecting interpretability techniques with user experience design-that seeks to make chatbots more transparent. We begin by showing evidence that a prominent open-source LLM has a "user model": examining the internal state of the system, we can extract data related to a user's age, gender, educational level, and socioeconomic status. Next, we describe the design of a dashboard that accompanies the chatbot interface, displaying this user model in real time. The dashboard can also be used to control the user model and the system's behavior. Finally, we discuss a study in which users conversed with the instrumented system. Our results suggest that users appreciate seeing internal states, which helped them expose biased behavior and increased their sense of control. Participants also made valuable suggestions that point to future directions for both design and machine learning research. The project page and video demo of our TalkTuner system are available at https://bit.ly/talktuner-project-page

The analysis of political biases in large language models (LLMs) has primarily examined these systems as single entities with fixed viewpoints. While various methods exist for measuring such biases, the impact of persona-based prompting on LLMs' political orientation remains unexplored. In this work we leverage PersonaHub, a collection of synthetic persona descriptions, to map the political distribution of persona-based prompted LLMs using the Political Compass Test (PCT). We then examine whether these initial compass distributions can be manipulated through explicit ideological prompting towards diametrically opposed political orientations: right-authoritarian and left-libertarian. Our experiments reveal that synthetic personas predominantly cluster in the left-libertarian quadrant, with models demonstrating varying degrees of responsiveness when prompted with explicit ideological descriptors. While all models demonstrate significant shifts towards right-authoritarian positions, they exhibit more limited shifts towards left-libertarian positions, suggesting an asymmetric response to ideological manipulation that may reflect inherent biases in model training.

Spoken dialogue systems powered by large language models have demonstrated remarkable abilities in understanding human speech and generating appropriate spoken responses. However, these systems struggle with end-turn detection (ETD) -- the ability to distinguish between user turn completion and hesitation. This limitation often leads to premature or delayed responses, disrupting the flow of spoken conversations. In this paper, we introduce the ETD Dataset, the first public dataset for end-turn detection. The ETD dataset consists of both synthetic speech data generated with text-to-speech models and real-world speech data collected from web sources. We also propose SpeculativeETD, a novel collaborative inference framework that balances efficiency and accuracy to improve real-time ETD in resource-constrained environments. Our approach jointly employs a lightweight GRU-based model, which rapidly detects the non-speaking units in real-time on local devices, and a high-performance Wav2vec-based model running on the server to make a more challenging classification of distinguishing turn ends from mere pauses. Experiments demonstrate that the proposed SpeculativeETD significantly improves ETD accuracy while keeping the required computations low. Datasets and code will be available after the review.

Compared with half-duplex dialogue systems where the system waits for user turn completion before it responds, natural full-duplex dialogue systems require agents to act proactively in real time, including timely interruptions and backchannels. This creates a key challenge: improving turn timing without sacrificing response quality. To address limitations in realistic proactive turn-taking, we build a generalized style-aware full-duplex framework with three key components. Firstly, we propose LPS-TC, a Lightweight Proactive Speech Turn Controller for plug-and-play integration. It features a fine-grained action space covering both reactive and proactive turn behaviors, enabling half-duplex models with full-duplex capabilities and enhancing existing full-duplex models with superior timing control. Secondly, we construct WildTurn, a large-scale, real-world English dataset containing approximately 2,981 hours of filtered multi-turn stereo conversations from face-to-face and telephone conversations, annotated with five turn-taking and five backchanneling styles. Trained on WildTurn, LPS-TC exhibits rich spoken dynamics that are not captured by existing static full-duplex benchmarks. Thirdly, we introduce a two-tier evaluation scheme that assesses both chunk-level timing precision and turn-level interaction quality under realistic streaming constraints. Our experiments, integrating LPS-TC with half-duplex models like Qwen2.5-Omni and full-duplex models like Freeze-Omni, showcase its superior performance in timing appropriateness and response quality. Our framework also demonstrates fine-grained style controllability and strong generalizability, enabling more natural and human-like spoken interactions.

Endowing the protagonist with a specific personality is essential for writing an engaging story. In this paper, we aim to control the protagonist's persona in story generation, i.e., generating a story from a leading context and a persona description, where the protagonist should exhibit the specified personality through a coherent event sequence. Considering that personas are usually embodied implicitly and sparsely in stories, we propose a planning-based generation model named CONPER to explicitly model the relationship between personas and events. CONPER first plans events of the protagonist's behavior which are motivated by the specified persona through predicting one target sentence, then plans the plot as a sequence of keywords with the guidance of the predicted persona-related events and commonsense knowledge, and finally generates the whole story. Both automatic and manual evaluation results demonstrate that CONPER outperforms state-of-the-art baselines for generating more coherent and persona-controllable stories.

A central piece in enabling intelligent agentic behavior in foundation models is to make them capable of introspecting upon their behavior, reasoning, and correcting their mistakes as more computation or interaction is available. Even the strongest proprietary large language models (LLMs) do not quite exhibit the ability of continually improving their responses sequentially, even in scenarios where they are explicitly told that they are making a mistake. In this paper, we develop RISE: Recursive IntroSpEction, an approach for fine-tuning LLMs to introduce this capability, despite prior work hypothesizing that this capability may not be possible to attain. Our approach prescribes an iterative fine-tuning procedure, which attempts to teach the model how to alter its response after having executed previously unsuccessful attempts to solve a hard test-time problem, with optionally additional environment feedback. RISE poses fine-tuning for a single-turn prompt as solving a multi-turn Markov decision process (MDP), where the initial state is the prompt. Inspired by principles in online imitation learning and reinforcement learning, we propose strategies for multi-turn data collection and training so as to imbue an LLM with the capability to recursively detect and correct its previous mistakes in subsequent iterations. Our experiments show that RISE enables Llama2, Llama3, and Mistral models to improve themselves with more turns on math reasoning tasks, outperforming several single-turn strategies given an equal amount of inference-time computation. We also find that RISE scales well, often attaining larger benefits with more capable models. Our analysis shows that RISE makes meaningful improvements to responses to arrive at the correct solution for challenging prompts, without disrupting one-turn abilities as a result of expressing more complex distributions.

Datasets scraped from the internet have been critical to the successes of large-scale machine learning. Yet, this very success puts the utility of future internet-derived datasets at potential risk, as model outputs begin to replace human annotations as a source of supervision. In this work, we first formalize a system where interactions with one model are recorded as history and scraped as training data in the future. We then analyze its stability over time by tracking changes to a test-time bias statistic (e.g. gender bias of model predictions). We find that the degree of bias amplification is closely linked to whether the model's outputs behave like samples from the training distribution, a behavior which we characterize and define as consistent calibration. Experiments in three conditional prediction scenarios - image classification, visual role-labeling, and language generation - demonstrate that models that exhibit a sampling-like behavior are more calibrated and thus more stable. Based on this insight, we propose an intervention to help calibrate and stabilize unstable feedback systems. Code is available at https://github.com/rtaori/data_feedback.

The growing use of language models for forecasting motivates a broader evaluation of their world-model capabilities. Such evaluation must go beyond predictive accuracy to assess hidden-state inference and intervention prediction. Real-world forecasting benchmarks offer limited access to hidden-state ground truth and controlled experiments. We introduce CivWorldBench, a benchmark built on a multi-agent strategy game engine with recorded internal states, controlled observations, and paired intervention rollouts. Its 1,900 decision points from 475 worlds support three task levels: association forecasting, belief inference, and intervention prediction. Reference predictors support attributable evaluation of capability gaps, with an expert harness and empirical ceiling estimates contextualizing scores. Stored trajectories make intermediate predictions verifiable, while agent-play experiments test whether world-model capabilities support decision-making. The main panel comprises eleven frontier language models. Composite benchmark scores correlate with real-world forecasting leaderboards on matched model panels, more closely than with a general-capability index, supporting its use as a proxy for real-world forecasting capability. Strong association forecasts do not consistently extend to belief inference or intervention prediction, and effect magnitudes remain poorly calibrated despite informative direction predictions. Process verification reveals errors missed by final-answer evaluation, and structured reasoning improves intervention prediction for the strongest model in the process study. Agent-play experiments identify useful assisted plans and motivate evaluating decision-relevant capabilities beyond association forecasting. These findings identify hidden-state inference, intermediate-state prediction, and effect calibration as priorities for world-model training.

Personalized mobile agents that infer user preferences and calibrate proactive assistance hold great promise as everyday digital assistants, yet existing benchmarks fail to capture what this requires. Prior work evaluates preference recovery from static histories or intent prediction from fixed contexts. Neither tests whether an agent can elicit missing preferences through interaction, nor whether it can decide when to intervene, seek consent, or remain silent in a live GUI environment. We introduce KnowU-Bench, an online benchmark for personalized mobile agents built on a reproducible Android emulation environment, covering 42 general GUI tasks, 86 personalized tasks, and 64 proactive tasks. Unlike prior work that treats user preferences as static context, KnowU-Bench hides the user profile from the agent and exposes only behavioral logs, forcing genuine preference inference rather than context lookup. To support multi-turn preference elicitation, it instantiates an LLM-driven user simulator grounded in structured profiles, enabling realistic clarification dialogues and proactive consent handling. Beyond personalization, KnowU-Bench provides comprehensive evaluation of the complete proactive decision chain, including grounded GUI execution, consent negotiation, and post-rejection restraint, evaluated through a hybrid protocol combining rule-based verification with LLM-as-a-Judge scoring. Our experiments reveal a striking degradation: agents that excel at explicit task execution fall below 50% under vague instructions requiring user preference inference or intervention calibration, even for frontier models like Claude Sonnet 4.6. The core bottlenecks are not GUI navigation but preference acquisition and intervention calibration, exposing a fundamental gap between competent interface operation and trustworthy personal assistance.

Large language models (LLMs) are routinely prompted to take on social roles ranging from individuals to institutions, yet it remains unclear whether their internal representations encode the granularity of such roles, from micro-level individual experience to macro-level organizational, institutional, or national reasoning. We show that they do. We define a contrast-based Granularity Axis as the difference between mean macro- and micro-role hidden states. In Qwen3-8B, this axis aligns with the principal axis (PC1) of the role representation space at cosine 0.972 and accounts for 52.6% of its variance, indicating that granularity is the dominant geometric axis organizing prompted social roles. We construct 75 social roles across five granularity levels and collect 91,200 role-conditioned responses over shared questions and prompt variants, then extract role-level hidden states and project them onto the axis. Role projections increase monotonically across all five levels, remain stable across layers, prompt variants, endpoint definitions, held-out splits, and score-filtered subsets, and transfer to Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct. The axis is also causally relevant: activation steering along it shifts response granularity in the predicted direction, with Llama moving from 2.00 to 3.17 on a five-point macro scale under positive steering on prompts that admit local responses. The two models differ in controllability, suggesting that steering depends on each model's default operating regime. Overall, our findings suggest that social role granularity is not merely a stylistic surface feature, but a structured, ordered, and causally manipulable latent direction in role-conditioned language model behavior.

Anticipating actions before they are executed is crucial for a wide range of practical applications, including autonomous driving and robotics. In this paper, we study the egocentric action anticipation task, which predicts future action seconds before it is performed for egocentric videos. Previous approaches focus on summarizing the observed content and directly predicting future action based on past observations. We believe it would benefit the action anticipation if we could mine some cues to compensate for the missing information of the unobserved frames. We then propose to decompose the action anticipation into a series of future feature predictions. We imagine how the visual feature changes in the near future and then predicts future action labels based on these imagined representations. Differently, our ImagineRNN is optimized in a contrastive learning way instead of feature regression. We utilize a proxy task to train the ImagineRNN, i.e., selecting the correct future states from distractors. We further improve ImagineRNN by residual anticipation, i.e., changing its target to predicting the feature difference of adjacent frames instead of the frame content. This promotes the network to focus on our target, i.e., the future action, as the difference between adjacent frame features is more important for forecasting the future. Extensive experiments on two large-scale egocentric action datasets validate the effectiveness of our method. Our method significantly outperforms previous methods on both the seen test set and the unseen test set of the EPIC Kitchens Action Anticipation Challenge.

Large language models internalize a structural trade-off between truthfulness and obsequious flattery, emerging from reward optimization that conflates helpfulness with polite submission. This latent bias, known as sycophancy, manifests as a preference for user agreement over principled reasoning. We introduce Beacon, a single-turn forced-choice benchmark that isolates this bias independent of conversational context, enabling precise measurement of the tension between factual accuracy and submissive bias. Evaluations across twelve state-of-the-art models reveal that sycophancy decomposes into stable linguistic and affective sub-biases, each scaling with model capacity. We further propose prompt-level and activation-level interventions that modulate these biases in opposing directions, exposing the internal geometry of alignment as a dynamic manifold between truthfulness and socially compliant judgment. Beacon reframes sycophancy as a measurable form of normative misgeneralization, providing a reproducible foundation for studying and mitigating alignment drift in large-scale generative systems.

Analyzing and forecasting trajectories of agents like pedestrians and cars in complex scenes has become more and more significant in many intelligent systems and applications. The diversity and uncertainty in socially interactive behaviors among a rich variety of agents make this task more challenging than other deterministic computer vision tasks. Researchers have made a lot of efforts to quantify the effects of these interactions on future trajectories through different mathematical models and network structures, but this problem has not been well solved. Inspired by marine animals that localize the positions of their companions underwater through echoes, we build a new anglebased trainable social interaction representation, named SocialCircle, for continuously reflecting the context of social interactions at different angular orientations relative to the target agent. We validate the effect of the proposed SocialCircle by training it along with several newly released trajectory prediction models, and experiments show that the SocialCircle not only quantitatively improves the prediction performance, but also qualitatively helps better simulate social interactions when forecasting pedestrian trajectories in a way that is consistent with human intuitions.

Reinforcement learning for long-horizon agents relies on purely retrospective training signals: credit is assigned only after observing environmental consequences, leaving the agent's belief at action time invisible to the gradient. We introduce Prospective Hindsight (PH), a self-calibrating training principle that augments any retrospective base method with a signal derived from the gap between the agent's prospective prediction (before feedback) and the retrospective evaluation (after feedback). This per-rollout surprise identifies samples where the agent's self-model is most inaccurate and amplifies their gradient contribution through a stop-gradient surprise-weighted advantage. Since the prospective predictor shares parameters with the policy, the two co-evolve, progressively shifting focus to the agent's remaining blind spots. We connect this principle to a privileged-information gap and show that minimizing the surprise residual provides a descent pathway on the agent's miscalibration rate; calibration thus emerges as a byproduct of optimization rather than from an added objective. On single-turn verifiable tasks and a multi-turn personal-agent task (under GRPO, on-policy distillation, and their combination), PH improves both task performance and calibration, with consistent gains across model scales. Notably, the dominant miscalibration mode shifts structurally between regimes, overconfident failures in single-turn, underconfident successes in multi-turn, yet the same training principle addresses both successfully.

Recent advancements in Large Language Models (LLMs) have significantly propelled the development of Conversational Recommendation Agents (CRAs). However, these agents often generate short-sighted responses that fail to sustain user guidance and meet expectations. Although preference optimization has proven effective in aligning LLMs with user expectations, it remains costly and performs poorly in multi-turn dialogue. To address this challenge, we introduce a novel multi-turn preference optimization (MTPO) paradigm ECPO, which leverages Expectation Confirmation Theory to explicitly model the evolution of user satisfaction throughout multi-turn dialogues, uncovering the underlying causes of dissatisfaction. These causes can be utilized to support targeted optimization of unsatisfactory responses, thereby achieving turn-level preference optimization. ECPO ingeniously eliminates the significant sampling overhead of existing MTPO methods while ensuring the optimization process drives meaningful improvements. To support ECPO, we introduce an LLM-based user simulator, AILO, to simulate user feedback and perform expectation confirmation during conversational recommendations. Experimental results show that ECPO significantly enhances CRA's interaction capabilities, delivering notable improvements in both efficiency and effectiveness over existing MTPO methods.

Machine learning models are often personalized with information that is protected, sensitive, self-reported, or costly to acquire. These models use information about people but do not facilitate nor inform their consent. Individuals cannot opt out of reporting personal information to a model, nor tell if they benefit from personalization in the first place. We introduce a family of classification models, called participatory systems, that let individuals opt into personalization at prediction time. We present a model-agnostic algorithm to learn participatory systems for personalization with categorical group attributes. We conduct a comprehensive empirical study of participatory systems in clinical prediction tasks, benchmarking them with common approaches for personalization and imputation. Our results demonstrate that participatory systems can facilitate and inform consent while improving performance and data use across all groups who report personal data.

A trustworthy real-world prediction system should produce well-calibrated confidence scores; that is, its confidence in an answer should be indicative of the likelihood that the answer is correct, enabling deferral to an expert in cases of low-confidence predictions. Recent studies have shown that unsupervised pre-training produces large language models (LMs) whose conditional probabilities are remarkably well-calibrated. However, the most widely-used LMs are fine-tuned with reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF-LMs), and some studies have suggested that RLHF-LMs produce conditional probabilities that are very poorly calibrated. In light of this perceived weakness, we conduct a broad evaluation of methods for extracting confidence scores from RLHF-LMs. For RLHF-LMs such as ChatGPT, GPT-4, and Claude, we find that verbalized confidences emitted as output tokens are typically better-calibrated than the model's conditional probabilities on the TriviaQA, SciQ, and TruthfulQA benchmarks, often reducing the expected calibration error by a relative 50%.

Researchers have been studying approaches to steer the behavior of Large Language Models (LLMs) and build personalized LLMs tailored for various applications. While fine-tuning seems to be a direct solution, it requires substantial computational resources and may significantly affect the utility of the original LLM. Recent endeavors have introduced more lightweight strategies, focusing on extracting "steering vectors" to guide the model's output toward desired behaviors by adjusting activations within specific layers of the LLM's transformer architecture. However, such steering vectors are directly extracted from the activations of human preference data and thus often lead to suboptimal results and occasional failures, especially in alignment-related scenarios. This work proposes an innovative approach that could produce more effective steering vectors through bi-directional preference optimization. Our method is designed to allow steering vectors to directly influence the generation probability of contrastive human preference data pairs, thereby offering a more precise representation of the target behavior. By carefully adjusting the direction and magnitude of the steering vector, we enabled personalized control over the desired behavior across a spectrum of intensities. Extensive experimentation across various open-ended generation tasks, particularly focusing on steering AI personas, has validated the efficacy of our approach. Moreover, we comprehensively investigate critical alignment-concerning scenarios, such as managing truthfulness, mitigating hallucination, and addressing jailbreaking attacks. Remarkably, our method can still demonstrate outstanding steering effectiveness across these scenarios. Furthermore, we showcase the transferability of our steering vectors across different models/LoRAs and highlight the synergistic benefits of applying multiple vectors simultaneously.

One way to personalize and steer generations from large language models (LLM) is to assign a persona: a role that describes how the user expects the LLM to behave (e.g., a helpful assistant, a teacher, a woman). This paper investigates how personas affect diverse aspects of model behavior. We assign to seven LLMs 162 personas from 12 categories spanning variables like gender, sexual orientation, and occupation. We prompt them to answer questions from five datasets covering objective (e.g., questions about math and history) and subjective tasks (e.g., questions about beliefs and values). We also compare persona's generations to two baseline settings: a control persona setting with 30 paraphrases of "a helpful assistant" to control for models' prompt sensitivity, and an empty persona setting where no persona is assigned. We find that for all models and datasets, personas show greater variability than the control setting and that some measures of persona behavior generalize across models.

Large Language Model (LLM) agents increasingly solve long-horizon tasks through multi-turn interactions with users and external tools. In these settings, relevant task information often unfolds over time rather than being fully specified at the initial prompt. Service agents make this challenge especially concrete: users may clarify or revise their goals, while tool responses provide information needed for subsequent decisions. Thus, a final reward alone cannot indicate which actions contributed to resolving the task. Recent methods rely on comparative evidence from other trajectories or resampled continuations, or on separately constructed step-level learning signals, to refine credit. However, a completed rollout already records how information and errors flow between agent actions. We introduce Influence-Aware Policy Optimization (IAPO), which represents each rollout as a typed influence-dependency graph over trainable agent actions, with user and tool observations serving as evidence. IAPO converts support-use and failed-use structure into routing weights that redistribute the same trajectory-level advantage. Experiments with Qwen3-4B and Qwen3-8B demonstrate superior performance over multi-turn reinforcement learning (RL) baselines across three service-agent benchmarks: {τ^2}-Bench, UserBench, and AgentChangeBench. BFCL-v4 Multi-Turn further shows that these gains do not compromise multi-turn function-calling performance. This work advances the understanding of credit assignment in multi-turn user interactions and provides a principled approach to training service agents from sparse outcome feedback.

As AI companions increasingly mediate repeated social interaction, users may rely on a stable role and shared history, yet locally acceptable replies do not ensure that either persists. We study two observable long-horizon failures: 'persona collapse', the loss of a deployed role, boundaries, values, or style, and 'behavioral drift', the gradual or recurrent erosion of those properties. We introduce ANCHOR, a controlled synthetic audit that separately measures persona enactment and trajectory recall. The study contains 2,008 conversations spanning 27 personas, nine interaction schedules, three generated memory settings, and four evaluated models. The Identity Probe combines a sealed 102-item questionnaire with turn-level judgments, while the Trajectory Probe scores 110 calibrated counterfactual questions from 35 conversation banks. Our results show that no evaluated model and configuration reliably preserves either dimensions: trajectory accuracy averages only 44.4%, user-state recall remains near four-option chance, and no tested context condition or memory consistently resolves these failures. Questionnaire retention also varies by model and persona facet, disagrees with turn-level behavior, and is sensitive to evaluator choice. These results indicate that current systems do not yet reliably support long-horizon companion continuity and that audits must distinguish persona enactment, trajectory recall, evaluator provenance, and deployment context rather than collapse them into a single trust or stability score.

Recent advances in AudioLLMs have enabled spoken dialogue systems to move beyond turn-based interaction toward real-time full-duplex communication, where the agent must decide when to speak, yield, or interrupt while the user is still talking. Existing full-duplex approaches either rely on voice activity cues, which lack semantic understanding, or on ASR-based modules, which introduce latency and degrade under overlapping speech and noise. Moreover, available datasets rarely capture realistic interaction dynamics, limiting evaluation and deployment. To mitigate the problem, we propose FastTurn, a unified framework for low-latency and robust turn detection. To advance latency while maintaining performance, FastTurn combines streaming CTC decoding with acoustic features, enabling early decisions from partial observations while preserving semantic cues. We also release a test set based on real human dialogue, capturing authentic turn transitions, overlapping speech, backchannels, pauses, pitch variation, and environmental noise. Experiments show FastTurn achieves higher decision accuracy with lower interruption latency than representative baselines and remains robust under challenging acoustic conditions, demonstrating its effectiveness for practical full-duplex dialogue systems.

Turn-level metrics are widely used to evaluate properties of multi-turn human-LLM conversations, from safety and sycophancy to dialogue quality. However, consecutive turns within a conversation are not statistically independent -- a fact that virtually all current evaluation pipelines fail to correct for in their statistical inference. We systematically characterize the autocorrelation structure of 66 turn-level metrics across 202 multi-turn conversations (11,639 turn pairs, 5 German-speaking users, 4 LLM platforms) and demonstrate that naive pooled analysis produces severely inflated significance estimates: 42% of associations that appear significant under standard pooled testing fail to survive cluster-robust correction. The inflation varies substantially across categories rather than scaling linearly with autocorrelation: three memoryless families (embedding velocity, directional, differential) aggregate to 14%, while the seven non-memoryless families (thermo-cycle, frame distance, lexical/structural, rolling windows, cumulative, interaction, timestamp) aggregate to 33%, with individual category rates ranging from 0% to 100% depending on per-family effect size. We present a two-stage correction framework combining Chelton (1983) effective degrees of freedom with conversation-level block bootstrap, and validate it on a pre-registered hold-out split where cluster-robust metrics replicate at 57% versus 30% for pooled-only metrics. We provide concrete design principles, a publication checklist, and open-source code for the correction pipeline. A survey of ~30 recent papers at major NLP and AI venues that compute turn-level statistics in LLM evaluations finds that only 4 address temporal dependence at all, and 26 do not correct for it.

Large Language Models are increasingly deployed as information intermediaries, yet measuring their political behavior remains fragile because questionnaire results mix model dispositions with measurement artifacts and response-elicitation biases. We introduce a robust Political Compass Test evaluation framework that samples 300 configurations across an eight-dimensional perturbation space varying language, framing, instructions, answer format, option order, and persona wording. We evaluate eight Gemma 3 and Qwen 3 models across 14 languages and three quantization levels, obtaining design-averaged political coordinates with quantified uncertainty. Most models lean Libertarian-Left on average, but instruction phrasing, language, and answer format significantly affect recovered coordinates. Cross-lingual differences primarily reflect coordinate drift rather than distinct cultural reasoning. Reverse-engineering the test also exposes axis-weighting imbalances and the collapse of degenerate responses toward the center, so near-origin estimates for the smallest models can reflect weak signal rather than centrism. Free-text reasoning and chat-then-classify elicitation alter recovered coordinates, and larger models show clearer persona separation, with a specific failure of the Authoritarian-Left persona to move most models in the intended social direction. In downstream tasks, persona effects are modest relative to model size and target group for hate-speech detection, while base and centrist prompts give the highest agreement for topic-level sentiment. Political role prompting therefore has measurable but task- and dataset-specific downstream effects.

Large language models (LLMs) exhibit distinct and consistent personalities that greatly impact trust and engagement. While this means that personality frameworks would be highly valuable tools to characterize and control LLMs' behavior, current approaches remain either costly (post-training) or brittle (prompt engineering). Probing and steering via linear directions has recently emerged as a cheap and efficient alternative. In this paper, we investigate whether linear directions aligned with the Big Five personality traits can be used for probing and steering model behavior. Using Llama 3.3 70B, we generate descriptions of 406 fictional characters and their Big Five trait scores. We then prompt the model with these descriptions and questions from the Alpaca questionnaire, allowing us to sample hidden activations that vary along personality traits in known, quantifiable ways. Using linear regression, we learn a set of per-layer directions in activation space, and test their effectiveness for probing and steering model behavior. Our results suggest that linear directions aligned with trait-scores are effective probes for personality detection, while their steering capabilities strongly depend on context, producing reliable effects in forced-choice tasks but limited influence in open-ended generation or when additional context is present in the prompt.

Large language models can resist task-misaligned activation steering during inference, sometimes recovering mid-generation to produce improved responses even when steering remains active. We term this Endogenous Steering Resistance (ESR). Using sparse autoencoder (SAE) latents to steer model activations, we find that Llama-3.3-70B shows substantial ESR, while smaller models from the Llama-3 and Gemma-2 families exhibit the phenomenon less frequently. We identify 26 SAE latents that activate differentially during off-topic content and are causally linked to ESR in Llama-3.3-70B. Zero-ablating these latents reduces the multi-attempt rate by 25%, providing causal evidence for dedicated internal consistency-checking circuits. We demonstrate that ESR can be deliberately enhanced through both prompting and training: meta-prompts instructing the model to self-monitor increase the multi-attempt rate by 4x for Llama-3.3-70B, and fine-tuning on self-correction examples successfully induces ESR-like behavior in smaller models. These findings have dual implications: ESR could protect against adversarial manipulation but might also interfere with beneficial safety interventions that rely on activation steering. Understanding and controlling these resistance mechanisms is important for developing transparent and controllable AI systems. Code is available at github.com/agencyenterprise/endogenous-steering-resistance.

Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) have spurred interest in designing LLM-based agents for tasks that involve interaction with human and artificial agents. This paper addresses a key aspect in the design of such agents: Predicting human decision in off-policy evaluation (OPE), focusing on language-based persuasion games, where the agent's goal is to influence its partner's decisions through verbal messages. Using a dedicated application, we collected a dataset of 87K decisions from humans playing a repeated decision-making game with artificial agents. Our approach involves training a model on human interactions with one agents subset to predict decisions when interacting with another. To enhance off-policy performance, we propose a simulation technique involving interactions across the entire agent space and simulated decision makers. Our learning strategy yields significant OPE gains, e.g., improving prediction accuracy in the top 15% challenging cases by 7.1%. Our code and the large dataset we collected and generated are submitted as supplementary material and publicly available in our GitHub repository: https://github.com/eilamshapira/HumanChoicePrediction

A central puzzle for the behavioural sciences and for human-facing artificial intelligence is the persistence of within-person variability. The same individual, presented with the same observable input, produces different outcomes on different occasions, and different individuals produce divergent outcomes that no observable covariate fully predicts. We argue that this variability belongs in the dynamic latent state of the person, and that human outcomes are controllable in a precise and operational sense through interventions that target the state and its weighting at the moment a decision is being formed. We define a state as the time-indexed weighting vector over the dimensions that govern how an individual's biology, physiology, and neuropsychology process the next event into a decision and an outcome. The relationship between state, decision, and outcome is causal rather than correlational. The weighting vector is dynamic at sub-daily timescales. The conscious channel through which outcomes are reportable is a narrow attentional bottleneck whose contents are themselves state-dependent. Taken together, these claims imply that the outcome of a given event is controllable, conditionally, on the state-trajectory at the time of intervention. We motivate the framework with six strands of established evidence (causal inference, predictive processing, allostasis, attentional bottleneck, chronobiology, computational psychiatry) and a 24-month observational base from a deployed behavioural platform spanning more than 200,000 consented users across four occupational personas (research period 2023 to 2026). We derive seven testable predictions, list six operational requirements for state-aware systems, and discuss implications for digital health, education, AI personalisation, and personal agency.

Current works in the generation of personalized dialogue primarily contribute to the agent presenting a consistent personality and driving a more informative response. However, we found that the generated responses from most previous models tend to be self-centered, with little care for the user in the dialogue. Moreover, we consider that human-like conversation is essentially built based on inferring information about the persona of the other party. Motivated by this, we propose a novel personalized dialogue generator by detecting an implicit user persona. Because it is hard to collect a large number of detailed personas for each user, we attempted to model the user's potential persona and its representation from dialogue history, with no external knowledge. The perception and fader variables were conceived using conditional variational inference. The two latent variables simulate the process of people being aware of each other's persona and producing a corresponding expression in conversation. Finally, posterior-discriminated regularization was presented to enhance the training procedure. Empirical studies demonstrate that, compared to state-of-the-art methods, our approach is more concerned with the user's persona and achieves a considerable boost across the evaluations.

An activation-steering coefficient sets intervention strength, but requesting a particular degree of persona expression requires a behavioral scale. We study persona dosing: controlling a language model through a trait description and a requested mean intensity. PersonaDose specializes a shared, description-conditioned FLAS controller on persona responses, then calibrates its flow time against measured trait expression. Training responses are not paired with requested target intensities. Across Llama-3.1-8B, Qwen3-8B, and Gemma-3-4B, PersonaDose raises core-trait expression at the Persona Vectors coherence floor of 75 by 33.2, 18.3, and 17.8 points over contrastive activation addition. Calibration-selected settings retain an expression advantage on held-out questions, although the coherence floor does not hold for every trait there. Across seven trained traits, calibrated requests yield mean targeting errors of 4.7-6.2 points over 14-22 calibration-reachable targets out of 28 per model. These results separate the behavioral range learned by a controller from the accuracy of requests within that range.

Multi-turn interactions with large language models typically retain the assistant's own past responses in the conversation history. In this work, we revisit this design choice by asking whether large language models benefit from conditioning on their own prior responses. Using in-the-wild, multi-turn conversations, we compare standard (full-context) prompting with a user-turn-only prompting approach that omits all previous assistant responses, across three open reasoning models and one state-of-the-art model. To our surprise, we find that removing prior assistant responses does not affect response quality on a large fraction of turns. Omitting assistant-side history can reduce cumulative context lengths by up to 10x. To explain this result, we find that multi-turn conversations consist of a substantial proportion (36.4%) of self-contained prompts, and that many follow-up prompts provide sufficient instruction to be answered using only the current user turn and prior user turns. When analyzing cases where user-turn-only prompting substantially outperforms full context, we identify instances of context pollution, in which models over-condition on their previous responses, introducing errors, hallucinations, or stylistic artifacts that propagate across turns. Motivated by these findings, we design a context-filtering approach that selectively omits assistant-side context. Our findings suggest that selectively omitting assistant history can improve response quality while reducing memory consumption.

User interface (UI) and user experience (UX) evaluation is central to product development, yet reliable feedback still relies on recruiting human participants or running online A/B tests, making early-stage iteration slow and costly. In light of this, recent work has explored Multimodal Large Language Models as proxy evaluators. However, existing approaches either produce surface-level critiques or a judgment that reflects the model's own biases rather than the genuine response of a particular user. We introduce PerceptUI, a framework for persona-conditioned UI/UX evaluation that predicts how a specific user would answer interface-related questions and produces natural-language rationales. PerceptUI is trained in two stages: (i) contrastive reflection fine-tuning distills teacher-generated rationales by extracting lessons from human decisions, and (ii) a reflective prompt-evolution step from the model's own failure traces. Across multiple domains and datasets, PerceptUI achieves human-level realism, generalizes to unseen questions and personas, and yields population-level response distributions.

User simulators are widely used as scalable environments for training and evaluating interactive assistants. Generating the next user turn is inherently one-to-many: the same profile and dialogue context may support multiple plausible continuations with different local interaction intents. A fluent response may therefore advance the dialogue through an inappropriate intent, such as acceptance rather than repair. Our key insight is that controllable user simulation should separate which local interaction intent the next user turn should realize from how that intent is expressed in language. We introduce UserIDA (User Intent-Directive Alignment), which exposes interaction intent as an explicit per-turn directive. UserIDA defines a six-way intent interface, learns directive-conditioned generation through supervised fine-tuning, and uses intent-calibrated policy optimization during group-based reinforcement learning. The reward preserves composite response quality while ensuring that intent-violating candidates rank below compliant alternatives in mixed groups. On LMSYS-USP, UserIDA achieves 86.6\% intent accuracy, outperforming the strongest dedicated user-simulator baseline by 24.3 percentage points while improving semantic and stylistic similarity. In within-context interventions, it realizes at least four of the six target intents in 91.7\% of evaluated dialogue states, compared with 22.9\% for the strongest external baseline. These results establish per-turn intent control as a complementary dimension to response fidelity in user simulation.

Natural-language user profiles have recently attracted attention not only for improved interpretability, but also for their potential to make recommender systems more steerable. By enabling direct editing, natural-language profiles allow users to explicitly articulate preferences that may be difficult to infer from past behavior. However, it remains unclear whether current natural-language-based recommendation methods can follow such steering commands. While existing steerability evaluations have shown some success for well-recognized item attributes (e.g., movie genres), we argue that these benchmarks fail to capture the richer forms of user control that motivate steerable recommendations. To address this gap, we introduce SteerEval, an evaluation framework designed to measure more nuanced and diverse forms of steerability by using interventions that range from genres to content-warning for movies. We assess the steerability of a family of pretrained natural-language recommenders, examine the potential and limitations of steering on relatively niche topics, and compare how different profile and recommendation interventions impact steering effectiveness. Finally, we offer practical design suggestions informed by our findings and discuss future steps in steerable recommender design.

The transition of Large Language Models (LLMs) from exploratory tools to active "silicon subjects" in social science lacks extensive validation of operational validity. This study introduces Conditioned Comment Prediction (CCP), a task in which a model predicts how a user would comment on a given stimulus by comparing generated outputs with authentic digital traces. This framework enables a rigorous evaluation of current LLM capabilities with respect to the simulation of social media user behavior. We evaluated open-weight 8B models (Llama3.1, Qwen3, Ministral) in English, German, and Luxembourgish language scenarios. By systematically comparing prompting strategies (explicit vs. implicit) and the impact of Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT), we identify a critical form vs. content decoupling in low-resource settings: while SFT aligns the surface structure of the text output (length and syntax), it degrades semantic grounding. Furthermore, we demonstrate that explicit conditioning (generated biographies) becomes redundant under fine-tuning, as models successfully perform latent inference directly from behavioral histories. Our findings challenge current "naive prompting" paradigms and offer operational guidelines prioritizing authentic behavioral traces over descriptive personas for high-fidelity simulation.

Reinforcement learning (RL) has shown promise in training agentic models that move beyond static benchmarks to engage in dynamic, multi-turn interactions. Yet, the ultimate value of such agents lies in their ability to assist users, a setting where diversity and dynamics of user interaction pose challenges. In this work, we propose UserRL, a unified framework for training and evaluating user-centric abilities through standardized gym environments paired with simulated users. We systematically vary turn-level reward assignment and trajectory-level score calculation to analyze how different formulations affect learning under the GRPO algorithm. Our experiments across Qwen3 models reveal three key findings: (i) SFT cold start is critical for unlocking initial interaction ability and enabling sustained RL improvements; (ii) deliberate trajectory scoring yields more efficient and effective multi-turn interactions; and (iii) while stronger simulated users (e.g., GPT-4o) facilitates training, open-source simulators (e.g., Qwen3-32B) remain a cost-effective and transferable option. Together, these results highlight that careful design of reward shaping and user simulation choice is as crucial as model scale, and establish UserRL as a practical pathway for developing robust user-centric agentic models. All codes and data are public for future research.

Estimating the persuasiveness of messages is critical in various applications, from recommender systems to safety assessment of LLMs. While it is imperative to consider the target persuadee's characteristics, such as their values, experiences, and reasoning styles, there is currently no established systematic framework to optimize leveraging a persuadee's past activities (e.g., conversations) to the benefit of a persuasiveness prediction model. To address this problem, we propose a context-aware user profiling framework with two trainable components: a query generator that generates optimal queries to retrieve persuasion-relevant records from a user's history, and a profiler that summarizes these records into a profile to effectively inform the persuasiveness prediction model. Our evaluation on the ChangeMyView Reddit dataset shows consistent improvements over existing methods across multiple predictor models, raising F1 from 33% to 47% on Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct. Further analysis shows that effective user profiles are context-dependent and predictor-specific, rather than relying on static attributes or surface-level similarity. Together, these results highlight the importance of task-oriented, context-dependent user profiling for personalized persuasiveness prediction.

Procedural content generation has enabled vast virtual worlds through levels, maps, and quests, but large-scale character generation remains underexplored. We identify two alignment-induced biases in existing methods: a positive moral bias, where characters uniformly adopt agreeable stances (e.g. always saying lying is bad), and a helpful assistant bias, where characters invariably answer questions directly (e.g. never refusing or deflecting). While such tendencies suit instruction-following systems, they suppress dramatic tension and yield predictable characters, stemming from maximum likelihood training and assistant fine-tuning. To address this, we introduce PersonaWeaver, a framework that disentangles world-building (roles, demographics) from behavioral-building (moral stances, interactional styles), yielding characters with more diverse reactions and moral stances, as well as second-order diversity in stylistic markers like length, tone, and punctuation. Code: https://github.com/mqraitem/Persona-Weaver

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly capable of simulating human behavior, offering cost-effective ways to estimate user responses during the early phases of survey design. While previous studies have examined whether models can reflect individual opinions or attitudes, we argue that a higher-order binding of virtual personas requires successfully approximating not only the opinions of a user as an identified member of a group, but also the nuanced ways in which that user perceives and evaluates those outside the group. In particular, faithfully simulating how humans perceive different social groups is critical for applying LLMs to various political science studies, including timely topics on polarization dynamics, inter-group conflict, and democratic backsliding. To this end, we propose a novel methodology for constructing virtual personas with synthetic user ``backstories" generated as extended, multi-turn interview transcripts. Our generated backstories are longer, rich in detail, and consistent in authentically describing a singular individual, compared to previous methods. We show that virtual personas conditioned on our backstories closely replicate human response distributions (up to an 87\% improvement as measured by Wasserstein Distance) and produce effect sizes that closely match those observed in the original studies. Altogether, our work extends the applicability of LLMs beyond estimating individual self-opinions, enabling their use in a broader range of human studies.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly used as proxies for human perception in urban analysis, yet it remains unclear whether persona prompting produces meaningful and reproducible behavioral diversity. We investigate whether distinct personas influence urban sentiment judgments generated by multimodal LLMs. Using a factorial set of personas spanning gender, economic status, political orientation, and personality, we instantiate multiple agents per persona to evaluate urban scene images from the PerceptSent dataset and assess both within-persona consistency and cross-persona variation. Results show strong convergence among agents sharing a persona, indicating stable and reproducible behavior. However, cross-persona differentiation is limited: economic status and personality induce statistically detectable but practically modest variation, while gender shows no measurable effect and political orientation only negligible impact. Agents also exhibit an extremity bias, collapsing intermediate sentiment categories common in human annotations. As a result, performance remains strong on coarse-grained polarity tasks but degrades as sentiment resolution increases, suggesting that simple label-based persona prompting does not capture fine-grained perceptual judgments. To isolate the contribution of persona conditioning, we additionally evaluate the same model without personas. Surprisingly, the no-persona model sometimes matches or exceeds persona-conditioned agreement with human labels across all task variants, suggesting that simple label-based persona prompting may add limited annotation value in this setting.

Activation steering offers a lightweight approach to control language models' behavior at inference time, but whether it succeeds or fails heavily depends on the prompt, concept, model, and steering configuration. Finding the regime and boundaries of successful steering typically requires expensive grid searches and post-hoc evaluation of full autoregressive rollouts. In this work, we investigate whether steerability can be predicted from the model's internal states at the beginning of the generation process, e.g., after generating the first few tokens, and how to leverage such a predictor to improve steering success rate. To this end, we first introduce ASTEER, a testbed including 1.4M steered generations, spanning 150 concepts with each steering success/failure labeled. Leveraging this testbed, we analyze the model's early decoding dynamics by extracting features that compare hidden states before and after steering across layers and initial decoding steps. These features help us understand how steering's effects propagate along layers and token positions, which provide key information for steerability prediction. We then train a Gradient Boosting Decision Trees (GBDT) classifier on these features to predict whether an intervention will under-steer, succeed, or over-steer without requiring full rollout. Our predictor achieves around 0.7 macro-F1 score on unseen concepts, demonstrating that early hidden states encode substantial, structured information about eventual steering efficacy. We further leverage this steerability predictor as guidance for steering strength searching, achieving near-optimal performance with a small fraction of decoding cost.

Cascades are a classical strategy to enable inference cost to vary adaptively across samples, wherein a sequence of classifiers are invoked in turn. A deferral rule determines whether to invoke the next classifier in the sequence, or to terminate prediction. One simple deferral rule employs the confidence of the current classifier, e.g., based on the maximum predicted softmax probability. Despite being oblivious to the structure of the cascade -- e.g., not modelling the errors of downstream models -- such confidence-based deferral often works remarkably well in practice. In this paper, we seek to better understand the conditions under which confidence-based deferral may fail, and when alternate deferral strategies can perform better. We first present a theoretical characterisation of the optimal deferral rule, which precisely characterises settings under which confidence-based deferral may suffer. We then study post-hoc deferral mechanisms, and demonstrate they can significantly improve upon confidence-based deferral in settings where (i) downstream models are specialists that only work well on a subset of inputs, (ii) samples are subject to label noise, and (iii) there is distribution shift between the train and test set.

Verifier-guided reinforcement learning has become a powerful paradigm for improving LLM reasoning. In multi-turn settings, models receive a verifier score after each turn and iteratively refine their outputs. Although such scores provide dense feedback, they do not directly provide dense credit: a score measures the quality of the current output, while credit should measure how the current turn changes the refinement trajectory. We propose TCPO, a turn-level credit assignment method for verifier-guided multi-turn RL. TCPO casts credit assignment as score-to-credit conversion and constructs turn-level advantages through reference-based comparisons: retrospective credit captures immediate progress and regression relative to the best prior state; hindsight delayed credit identifies non-improving turns with later payoff; and selective fixed-history counterfactual estimation refines high-surprisal turns under the same history. Experiments on math reasoning, code generation, and AppWorld agent tasks show that TCPO improves or matches the strongest baselines across model scales, task domains, and verifier types. TCPO achieves the best or tied-best best-turn Pass@8 on Qwen3-4B and DeepSeek-R1-Distill-Llama-8B, reduces turns to success, and improves multi-turn agent performance. These results highlight score-to-credit conversion as a central ingredient for verifier-guided multi-turn policy optimization.

We consider the question: when a large language reasoning model makes a choice, did it think first and then decide to, or decide first and then think? In this paper, we present evidence that detectable, early-encoded decisions shape chain-of-thought in reasoning models. Specifically, we show that a simple linear probe successfully decodes tool-calling decisions from pre-generation activations with very high confidence, and in some cases, even before a single reasoning token is produced. Activation steering supports this causally: perturbing the decision direction leads to inflated deliberation, and flips behavior in many examples (between 7 - 79% depending on model and benchmark). We also show through behavioral analysis that, when steering changes the decision, the chain-of-thought process often rationalizes the flip rather than resisting it. Together, these results suggest that reasoning models can encode action choices before they begin to deliberate in text.

Learning algorithms are often used in conjunction with expert decision makers in practical scenarios, however this fact is largely ignored when designing these algorithms. In this paper we explore how to learn predictors that can either predict or choose to defer the decision to a downstream expert. Given only samples of the expert's decisions, we give a procedure based on learning a classifier and a rejector and analyze it theoretically. Our approach is based on a novel reduction to cost sensitive learning where we give a consistent surrogate loss for cost sensitive learning that generalizes the cross entropy loss. We show the effectiveness of our approach on a variety of experimental tasks.

Persona conditioning can be viewed as a behavioral prior for large language models (LLMs) and is often assumed to confer expertise and improve safety in a monotonic manner. However, its effects on high-stakes clinical decision-making remain poorly characterized. We systematically evaluate persona-based control in clinical LLMs, examining how professional roles (e.g., Emergency Department physician, nurse) and interaction styles (bold vs.\ cautious) influence behavior across models and medical tasks. We assess performance on clinical triage and patient-safety tasks using multidimensional evaluations that capture task accuracy, calibration, and safety-relevant risk behavior. We find systematic, context-dependent, and non-monotonic effects: Medical personas improve performance in critical care tasks, yielding gains of up to sim+20% in accuracy and calibration, but degrade performance in primary-care settings by comparable margins. Interaction style modulates risk propensity and sensitivity, but it's highly model-dependent. While aggregated LLM-judge rankings favor medical over non-medical personas in safety-critical cases, we found that human clinicians show moderate agreement on safety compliance (average Cohen's κ= 0.43) but indicate a low confidence in 95.9\% of their responses on reasoning quality. Our work shows that personas function as behavioral priors that introduce context-dependent trade-offs rather than guarantees of safety or expertise. The code is available at https://github.com/rsinghlab/Persona\_Paradox.

Despite advances in large language models (LLMs) on reasoning and instruction-following benchmarks, it remains unclear whether they can reliably produce outputs aligned with a broad variety of user goals, a concept we refer to as steerability. The abundance of methods proposed to modify LLM behavior makes it unclear whether current LLMs are already steerable, or require further intervention. In particular, LLMs may exhibit (i) poor coverage, where rare user goals are underrepresented; (ii) miscalibration, where models overshoot requests; and (iii) side effects, where changes to one dimension of text inadvertently affect others. To systematically evaluate these failures, we introduce a framework based on a multi-dimensional goal space that models user goals and LLM outputs as vectors with dimensions corresponding to text attributes (e.g., reading difficulty). Applied to a text-rewriting task, we find that current LLMs struggle with steerability, as side effects are persistent. Interventions to improve steerability, such as prompt engineering, best-of-N sampling, and reinforcement learning fine-tuning, have varying effectiveness, yet side effects remain problematic. Our findings suggest that even strong LLMs struggle with steerability, and existing alignment strategies may be insufficient. We open-source our steerability evaluation framework at https://github.com/MLD3/steerability.

Probabilistic forecasting estimates the likelihood of uncertain future events. To improve LLM forecasting, existing methods typically learn from binary outcomes to output verbalized forecasts. However, while aggregated human forecasts contain rich information in both the crowd probability estimate and the degree of agreement among forecasters, how to utilize these signals remains underexplored. To address this, we propose the Beta-Bernoulli Calibrator (BBC), which converts an initial point estimate forecast from any model into a distribution over event likelihood, using supervision from both binary outcomes and human forecasts. BBC models event likelihood p sim Beta(α, β) and outcome y sim Bernoulli(p), with the mean as the calibrated point forecast and the variance as the epistemic uncertainty. Our results show that BBC generally provides better calibrated and more accurate forecasts than both traditional post-hoc calibration methods and models fine-tuned specifically for forecasting, while remaining lightweight and having good generalization. We also show that the epistemic uncertainty captured by BBC is a more reliable predictor of forecasting error than verbalized confidence.

Benchmarks for full-duplex spoken dialogue models score turn-taking with binary fixed-window rules that reward immediate response or silence by completeness of the prior turn. We argue that the appropriateness of a response offset, whether delayed silence or anticipatory overlap, is conditional on the speaker's latent intent, identifiable only from that speaker's behavior. We introduce TACT, a benchmark of 9,728 episodes and 73.2 hours from five dyadic corpora; each episode carries dialogue history, a per-speaker memory profile, and an annotator-derived posterior over six intent classes. Scoring replaces binary windows with a strictly proper threshold-weighted continuous ranked probability score whose weights are intent-conditioned timing kernels fitted to human floor-transfer-offset distributions, proving boundedness, consistency, and binary reduction. Across eleven systems the best model reaches 0.47 against a human topline of 0.86, is nearly invariant to speaker profiles, and TACT agrees with human judgments at Spearman 0.81 versus 0.46 for binary metrics.

Social simulations built from language-model agents need role-conditioned behavior that can be checked before agents are placed into a simulated population. We introduce an activation-steering screening workflow for role-conditioned agents: define a role profile, extract a role-specific direction, sweep four steering coefficients, evaluate role-profile alignment, and pass or flag each candidate configuration. On OLMo-3-7B-Instruct, we apply the workflow to a mixed 275-role inventory with 228 role-agnostic questions, GPT-4.1-mini prompted role references, and GPT-4.1-mini judges. Role-specific directions receive higher judged role-profile alignment than an assistant-axis directional control from prior persona-vector work, with mean overall scores of 63.2 versus 41.1 across the tested grid. They also preserve high lexical diversity, while the control drops sharply at larger coefficients. The role-level screen is the main practical output: most roles improve as steering increases, but 38 roles decline across all six measured dimensions, showing why simulation builders should choose coefficients per role rather than deploy a uniform high-strength setting. We make our code and evaluation artifacts available at https://anonymous.4open.science/r/anonymous-research-code-5F03/.

When answering questions, LLMs can convey not only an answer, but a level of confidence about the answer being correct. This includes explicit confidence markers (e.g. giving a numeric score) as well as implicit markers, like an authoritative tone or elaborating with additional knowledge. For LLMs to be trustworthy knowledge sources, the confidence they convey should match their actual expertise; however, most current models tend towards overconfidence. To calibrate both implicit and explicit confidence markers, we introduce a pragmatic, listener-aware finetuning method (LACIE) that models the listener, considering not only whether an answer is right, but whether it will be accepted by a listener. We cast calibration as preference optimization, creating data via a two-agent game, where a speaker model's outputs are judged by a simulated listener. We then finetune three LLMs (Mistral-7B, Llama3-8B, Llama3-70B) with LACIE, and show that the resulting models are better calibrated w.r.t. a simulated listener. Crucially, these trends transfer to human listeners, helping them correctly predict model correctness: we conduct a human evaluation where annotators accept or reject an LLM's answers, finding that training with LACIE results in 47% fewer incorrect answers being accepted while maintaining the same level of acceptance for correct answers. Furthermore, LACIE generalizes to another dataset, resulting in a large increase in truthfulness on TruthfulQA when trained on TriviaQA. Our analysis indicates that LACIE leads to a better confidence separation between correct and incorrect examples. Qualitatively, we find that a LACIE-trained model hedges more and implicitly signals certainty when it is correct by using an authoritative tone or including details. Finally, LACIE finetuning leads to an emergent increase in model abstention (e.g. saying "I don't know") for answers that are likely wrong.

Large language models (LLMs) can be said to have preferences: they reliably pick certain tasks and outputs over others, and preferences shaped by post-training and system prompts appear to shape much of their behaviour. But models can also adopt different personas which have radically different preferences. How is this implemented internally? Does each persona run on its own preference machinery, or is something shared underneath? We train linear probes on residual-stream activations of Gemma-3-27B and Qwen-3.5-122B to predict revealed pairwise task choices, and identify a genuine preference vector: it tracks the model's preferences as they shift across a range of prompts and situations, and on Gemma-3-27B steering along it causally controls pairwise choice. This preference representation is largely shared across personas: a probe trained on the helpful assistant predicts and steers the choices of qualitatively different personas, including an evil persona whose preferences anti-correlate with those of the Assistant.

Recent progress in latent world models (e.g., V-JEPA2) has shown promising capability in forecasting future world states from video observations. Nevertheless, dense prediction from a short observation window limits temporal context and can bias predictors toward local, low-level extrapolation, making it difficult to capture long-horizon semantics and reducing downstream utility. Vision--language models (VLMs), in contrast, provide strong semantic grounding and general knowledge by reasoning over uniformly sampled frames, but they are not ideal as standalone dense predictors due to compute-driven sparse sampling, a language-output bottleneck that compresses fine-grained interaction states into text-oriented representations, and a data-regime mismatch when adapting to small action-conditioned datasets. We propose a VLM-guided JEPA-style latent world modeling framework that combines dense-frame dynamics modeling with long-horizon semantic guidance via a dual-temporal pathway: a dense JEPA branch for fine-grained motion and interaction cues, and a uniformly sampled VLM thinker branch with a larger temporal stride for knowledge-rich guidance. To transfer the VLM's progressive reasoning signals effectively, we introduce a hierarchical pyramid representation extraction module that aggregates multi-layer VLM representations into guidance features compatible with latent prediction. Experiments on hand-manipulation trajectory prediction show that our method outperforms both a strong VLM-only baseline and a JEPA-predictor baseline, and yields more robust long-horizon rollout behavior.

Reinforcement learning from human feedback (RLHF) is a popular technique for training high-quality AI assistants. However, RLHF may also encourage model responses that match user beliefs over truthful responses, a behavior known as sycophancy. We investigate the prevalence of sycophancy in RLHF-trained models and whether human preference judgements are responsible. We first demonstrate that five state-of-the-art AI assistants consistently exhibit sycophantic behavior across four varied free-form text-generation tasks. To understand if human preferences drive this broadly observed behavior of RLHF models, we analyze existing human preference data. We find that when a response matches a user's views, it is more likely to be preferred. Moreover, both humans and preference models (PMs) prefer convincingly-written sycophantic responses over correct ones a negligible fraction of the time. Optimizing model outputs against PMs also sometimes sacrifices truthfulness in favor of sycophancy. Overall, our results indicate that sycophancy is a general behavior of RLHF models, likely driven in part by human preference judgements favoring sycophantic responses.

Long-horizon LLM agents depend on intermediate information-gathering turns, yet training feedback is usually observed only at the final answer, because process-level rewards require high-quality human annotation. Existing turn-level shaping methods reward turns that increase the likelihood of a gold answer, but they require answer supervision or stable task-specific verifiers. Conversely, label-free RL methods extract self-signals from output distributions, but mainly at the answer or trajectory level and therefore cannot assign credit to intermediate turns. We propose Self-Induced Outcome Potential (SIOP), which treats semantic clusters of final answers as latent future outcome states for potential-based turn-level credit assignment. For each query, SIOP samples multiple rollouts, clusters final answers into semantic outcome modes, and builds a reliability-aware target distribution over these states. It then rewards turns for increasing posterior support for reliable future states using a tractable cluster-level approximation. The objective generalizes information-potential shaping from gold-answer supervision to settings without task-specific gold verifiers while avoiding the broadcasted rollout-level advantages used by standard GRPO. We formalize the framework, characterize its supervised gold-answer limit, and show that SIOP improves average performance over verifier-free outcome-level baselines on seven search-augmented agentic reasoning benchmarks while approaching a gold-supervised outcome baseline. Code is available at https://github.com/dl-m9/SIOP.git.

Large Language Models (LLMs) can adopt distinct personas to tune their semantics, expertise, and perspective to different users and tasks. Precise control over these traits is critical to ensure safety and reliability in model behavior. Existing methods like activation steering and prompt-based persona induction reduce a persona to a single dominant direction, missing the finer, nested traits that emerge only once that dominant signal is factored out. We introduce modulation as a setting where the persona context is already embedded in the content being manipulated, requiring control methods to amplify or suppress a trait already present rather than inject it from scratch. PaSS is an inference-time control paradigm that models personas as multi-dimensional subspaces in a model's latent space without supervised contrastive examples. The persona subspaces are extracted via iterative concept erasure and applied to modulate persona-guided generation without retraining. To extract this subspace, we use Iterative Nullspace Projections (INLP) to linearly and iteratively isolate persona-specific directions. We causally evaluate six personas against diverse tasks like MATH-500, TinyAlpaca, GSM8K, and IFEval, showing that discriminative, iterative subspace extraction captures diverse traits underlying a given persona, enabling stronger and larger modulation than single-direction additive methods, while maintaining content fidelity. We further study individual peeled directions within each subspace to uncover the distinct aspects of persona behavior they encode. Overall, we show that persona subspaces offer a controllable, interpretable, and generalizable framework for modulating LLM behavior without sacrificing task performance.

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at single-turn tasks such as instruction following and summarization, yet real-world deployments require sustained multi-turn interactions where user goals and conversational context persist and evolve. A recurring challenge in this setting is context drift: the gradual divergence of a model's outputs from goal-consistent behavior across turns. Unlike single-turn errors, drift unfolds temporally and is poorly captured by static evaluation metrics. In this work, we present a study of context drift in multi-turn interactions and propose a simple dynamical framework to interpret its behavior. We formalize drift as the turn-wise KL divergence between the token-level predictive distributions of the test model and a goal-consistent reference model, and propose a recurrence model that interprets its evolution as a bounded stochastic process with restoring forces and controllable interventions. We instantiate this framework in both synthetic long-horizon rewriting tasks and realistic user-agent simulations such as in tau-Bench, measuring drift for several open-weight LLMs that are used as user simulators. Our experiments consistently reveal stable, noise-limited equilibria rather than runaway degradation, and demonstrate that simple reminder interventions reliably reduce divergence in line with theoretical predictions. Together, these results suggest that multi-turn drift can be understood as a controllable equilibrium phenomenon rather than as inevitable decay, providing a foundation for studying and mitigating context drift in extended interactions.

Prompting serves as the major way humans interact with Large Language Models (LLM). Commercial AI systems commonly define the role of the LLM in system prompts. For example, ChatGPT uses ``You are a helpful assistant'' as part of its default system prompt. Despite current practices of adding personas to system prompts, it remains unclear how different personas affect a model's performance on objective tasks. In this study, we present a systematic evaluation of personas in system prompts. We curate a list of 162 roles covering 6 types of interpersonal relationships and 8 domains of expertise. Through extensive analysis of 4 popular families of LLMs and 2,410 factual questions, we demonstrate that adding personas in system prompts does not improve model performance across a range of questions compared to the control setting where no persona is added. Nevertheless, further analysis suggests that the gender, type, and domain of the persona can all influence the resulting prediction accuracies. We further experimented with a list of persona search strategies and found that, while aggregating results from the best persona for each question significantly improves prediction accuracy, automatically identifying the best persona is challenging, with predictions often performing no better than random selection. Overall, our findings suggest that while adding a persona may lead to performance gains in certain settings, the effect of each persona can be largely random. Code and data are available at https://github.com/Jiaxin-Pei/Prompting-with-Social-Roles.

Large language models are increasingly deployed as agents, but reliable agentic behavior requires more than next-token prediction. At inference time, it is preferred that an agent can decide whether to proceed with its current reasoning, defer to a stronger model, request additional information, invoke external tools, or abstain under the given setup. Existing approaches address these decisions through prompt-level routing, external orchestration, or task-specific fine-tuning, which primarily rely on input-side signals, and are often costly and difficult to maintain as model backbones evolve. We ask whether such control decisions can be inferred directly from a model's latent generation process. We introduce Multi-Head Latent Control, a lightweight layer that reads hidden-state trajectories from a frozen LLM or VLM to produce deployment-time control signals. A Capability Head predicts whether the current model can solve the instance or should defer to a stronger collaborator, while a Resolution Head predicts appropriate resolution decision Clarification, Tool Use, Abstention, or Direct Answering. Both heads are trained only on latent traces from the same frozen LLM backbone, enabling post hoc adaptation without modifying the model. Across language and vision-language settings, Multi-Head Latent Control consistently improves the quality-cost tradeoff of multi-model systems, enabling early handoff from partial generations and more accurate intervention decisions. In routed execution (small + large model), it reduces large-model usage by up to 90.7 percent on AndroidWorld and 27-53 percent on average across benchmarks, while retaining most of large-model performance. Additionally, the learned control signals improve tool-use decision quality, yielding up to +158 percent relative score gain and 65.5 percent fewer missed-required tool calls.

Trust in an AI system is often anchored by explanations of how it works, which one then uses to forecast its behavior on new inputs. For large reasoning models (LRMs), this conventional route is particularly difficult to follow: explanation methods for single token generations do not naturally generalize to long trajectories, and the trajectories themselves are often not faithful when read as natural language. We propose an alternative that bypasses the explanation step: treat behavior forecasting as a learnable task and train Behavior Forecasters that operates on a single reasoning trajectory to make the same forecasts one would typically seek from an explanation. The forecaster's training data is obtained by querying the LRM with no human annotation, and its inference is done in a single forward pass. We instantiate this approach on two tasks: how likely the LRM is to repeat its answer on re-runs, and how removing parts of the input changes its answer. We evaluate this approach on both tasks across three diverse reasoning datasets and find that trained Behavior Forecasters are more accurate than GPT-5.4 and Claude Opus-4.6 reading the same trajectories as naive readers, at a small fraction of their inference cost. We find that fine-tuning the backbone end-to-end and initializing it from the target LRM are each necessary for strong performance. These results show that the reasoning trajectory carries information about the LRM's future behavior that goes beyond what naive reading conveys.

Motion behaviour is driven by several factors -- goals, presence and actions of neighbouring agents, social relations, physical and social norms, the environment with its variable characteristics, and further. Most factors are not directly observable and must be modelled from context. Trajectory prediction, is thus a hard problem, and has seen increasing attention from researchers in the recent years. Prediction of motion, in application, must be realistic, diverse and controllable. In spite of increasing focus on multimodal trajectory generation, most methods still lack means for explicitly controlling different modes of the data generation. Further, most endeavours invest heavily in designing special mechanisms to learn the interactions in latent space. We present Conditional Speed GAN (CSG), that allows controlled generation of diverse and socially acceptable trajectories, based on user controlled speed. During prediction, CSG forecasts future speed from latent space and conditions its generation based on it. CSG is comparable to state-of-the-art GAN methods in terms of the benchmark distance metrics, while being simple and useful for simulation and data augmentation for different contexts such as fast or slow paced environments. Additionally, we compare the effect of different aggregation mechanisms and show that a naive approach of concatenation works comparable to its attention and pooling alternatives.

When prompting language models to complete a task, users often leave important aspects unsaid. While asking questions could resolve this ambiguity (GATE; Li et al., 2023), models often struggle to ask good questions. We explore a language model's ability to self-improve (STaR; Zelikman et al., 2022) by rewarding the model for generating useful questions-a simple method we dub STaR-GATE. We generate a synthetic dataset of 25,500 unique persona-task prompts to simulate conversations between a pretrained language model-the Questioner-and a Roleplayer whose preferences are unknown to the Questioner. By asking questions, the Questioner elicits preferences from the Roleplayer. The Questioner is iteratively finetuned on questions that increase the probability of high-quality responses to the task, which are generated by an Oracle with access to the Roleplayer's latent preferences. After two iterations of self-improvement, the Questioner asks better questions, allowing it to generate responses that are preferred over responses from the initial model on 72% of tasks. Our results indicate that teaching a language model to ask better questions leads to better personalized responses.

Personality traits have long been studied as predictors of human behavior. Recent advances in Large Language Models (LLMs) suggest similar patterns may emerge in artificial systems, with advanced LLMs displaying consistent behavioral tendencies resembling human traits like agreeableness and self-regulation. Understanding these patterns is crucial, yet prior work primarily relied on simplified self-reports and heuristic prompting, with little behavioral validation. In this study, we systematically characterize LLM personality across three dimensions: (1) the dynamic emergence and evolution of trait profiles throughout training stages; (2) the predictive validity of self-reported traits in behavioral tasks; and (3) the impact of targeted interventions, such as persona injection, on both self-reports and behavior. Our findings reveal that instructional alignment (e.g., RLHF, instruction tuning) significantly stabilizes trait expression and strengthens trait correlations in ways that mirror human data. However, these self-reported traits do not reliably predict behavior, and observed associations often diverge from human patterns. While persona injection successfully steers self-reports in the intended direction, it exerts little or inconsistent effect on actual behavior. By distinguishing surface-level trait expression from behavioral consistency, our findings challenge assumptions about LLM personality and underscore the need for deeper evaluation in alignment and interpretability.

Generating images with a Text-to-Image model often requires multiple trials, where human users iteratively update their prompt based on feedback, namely the output image. Taking inspiration from cognitive work on reference games and dialogue alignment, this paper analyzes the dynamics of the user prompts along such iterations. We compile a dataset of iterative interactions of human users with Midjourney. Our analysis then reveals that prompts predictably converge toward specific traits along these iterations. We further study whether this convergence is due to human users, realizing they missed important details, or due to adaptation to the model's ``preferences'', producing better images for a specific language style. We show initial evidence that both possibilities are at play. The possibility that users adapt to the model's preference raises concerns about reusing user data for further training. The prompts may be biased towards the preferences of a specific model, rather than align with human intentions and natural manner of expression.

Accurately predicting conversion rate (CVR) is essential in various recommendation domains such as online advertising systems and e-commerce. These systems utilize user interaction logs, which consist of exposures, clicks, and conversions. CVR prediction models are typically trained solely based on clicked samples, as conversions can only be determined following clicks. However, the sparsity of clicked instances necessitates the collection of a substantial amount of logs for effective model training. Recent works address this issue by devising frameworks that leverage non-clicked samples. While these frameworks aim to reduce biases caused by the discrepancy between clicked and non-clicked samples, they often rely on heuristics. Against this background, we propose a method to counterfactually generate conversion labels for non-clicked samples by using causality as a guiding principle, attempting to answer the question, "Would the user have converted if he or she had clicked the recommended item?" Our approach is named the Entire Space Counterfactual Inference Multi-task Model (ESCIM). We initially train a structural causal model (SCM) of user sequential behaviors and conduct a hypothetical intervention (i.e., click) on non-clicked items to infer counterfactual CVRs. We then introduce several approaches to transform predicted counterfactual CVRs into binary counterfactual conversion labels for the non-clicked samples. Finally, the generated samples are incorporated into the training process. Extensive experiments on public datasets illustrate the superiority of the proposed algorithm. Online A/B testing further empirically validates the effectiveness of our proposed algorithm in real-world scenarios. In addition, we demonstrate the improved performance of the proposed method on latent conversion data, showcasing its robustness and superior generalization capabilities.

Counterfactual prompting (i.e., perturbing a single factor and measuring output change) is widely used to evaluate things like LLM bias and CoT faithfulness. But in this work we argue that observed effects cannot be attributed to the targeted factor without accounting for baseline ``meaning-preserving'' modifications to text that establish general model sensitivity. This is because every counterfactual edit is a compound treatment that bundles the variable of interest with incidental surface-form variation; this violates treatment variation irrelevance. We observe prediction flip rates on MedQA of 14.9% when we surgically change patient gender. However, this is statistically indistinguishable from the flip rates induced by simply paraphrasing inputs (14.1%). In this case, it would therefore be unwarranted to conclude that the LLM is especially sensitive to patient gender. To account for this and robustly measure the effects of targeted interventions, we propose a framework in which we compare (via statistical testing) differences observed under target interventions to those induced by paraphrasing inputs. We then use this framework to revisit a analysis done on the MedPerturb dataset, which reported evidence of model sensitivity to patient demographics and stylistic cues. We find that these effects largely dissipate when we account for general model sensitivity, with only 5 of 120 tests reaching statistical significance. Applying the same framework to occupational biography classification, we detect clearly significant directional gender bias, showing that the framework identifies real directional effects even when they are small. We evaluate a range of metrics -- aggregate, per-sample distributional, and regression -- and find that per-sample metrics are dramatically more powerful than aggregate metrics and regression powerfully and uniquely characterizes effect direction and magnitude.

Recent studies demonstrate that prompting an appropriate role-playing persona to an LLM improves its reasoning capability. However, assigning a proper persona is difficult since an LLM's performance is extremely sensitive to assigned prompts; therefore, personas sometimes hinder LLMs and degrade their reasoning capabilities. In this paper, we propose a novel framework, Jekyll \& Hyde, which ensembles the results of role-playing and neutral prompts to eradicate performance degradation via unilateral use of role-playing prompted LLM and enhance the robustness of an LLM's reasoning ability. Specifically, Jekyll \& Hyde collects two potential solutions from both role-playing and neutral prompts and selects a better solution after cross-checking via an LLM evaluator. However, LLM-based evaluators tend to be affected by the order of those potential solutions within the prompt when selecting the proper solution; thus, we also propose a robust LLM evaluator to mitigate the position bias. The experimental analysis demonstrates that role-playing prompts distract LLMs and degrade their reasoning abilities in 4 out of 12 datasets, even when using GPT-4. In addition, we reveal that Jekyll \& Hyde improves reasoning capabilities by selecting better choices among the potential solutions on twelve widely-used reasoning datasets. We further show that our proposed LLM evaluator outperforms other baselines, proving the LLMs' position bias is successfully mitigated.