Daily Papers

We introduce MuirBench, a comprehensive benchmark that focuses on robust multi-image understanding capabilities of multimodal LLMs. MuirBench consists of 12 diverse multi-image tasks (e.g., scene understanding, ordering) that involve 10 categories of multi-image relations (e.g., multiview, temporal relations). Comprising 11,264 images and 2,600 multiple-choice questions, MuirBench is created in a pairwise manner, where each standard instance is paired with an unanswerable variant that has minimal semantic differences, in order for a reliable assessment. Evaluated upon 20 recent multi-modal LLMs, our results reveal that even the best-performing models like GPT-4o and Gemini Pro find it challenging to solve MuirBench, achieving 68.0% and 49.3% in accuracy. Open-source multimodal LLMs trained on single images can hardly generalize to multi-image questions, hovering below 33.3% in accuracy. These results highlight the importance of MuirBench in encouraging the community to develop multimodal LLMs that can look beyond a single image, suggesting potential pathways for future improvements.

Recently, deep learning-based language models have significantly enhanced text-to-SQL tasks, with promising applications in retrieving patient records within the medical domain. One notable challenge in such applications is discerning unanswerable queries. Through fine-tuning model, we demonstrate the feasibility of converting medical record inquiries into SQL queries. Additionally, we introduce an entropy-based method to identify and filter out unanswerable results. We further enhance result quality by filtering low-confidence SQL through log probability-based distribution, while grammatical and schema errors are mitigated by executing queries on the actual database. We experimentally verified that our method can filter unanswerable questions, which can be widely utilized even when the parameters of the model are not accessible, and that it can be effectively utilized in practice.

Teaching Visual Question Answering (VQA) models to abstain from unanswerable questions is indispensable for building a trustworthy AI system. Existing studies, though have explored various aspects of VQA, yet marginally ignored this particular attribute. This paper aims to bridge the research gap by contributing a comprehensive dataset, called UNK-VQA. The dataset is specifically designed to address the challenge of questions that can be unanswerable. To this end, we first augment the existing data via deliberate perturbations on either the image or question. In specific, we carefully ensure that the question-image semantics remain close to the original unperturbed distribution. By means of this, the identification of unanswerable questions becomes challenging, setting our dataset apart from others that involve mere image replacement. We then extensively evaluate the zero- and few-shot performance of several emerging multi-modal large models and discover significant limitations of them when applied to our dataset. Additionally, we also propose a straightforward method to tackle these unanswerable questions. This dataset, we believe, will serve as a valuable benchmark for enhancing the abstention capability of VQA models, thereby leading to increased trustworthiness of AI systems.

If a question cannot be answered with the available information, robust systems for question answering (QA) should know _not_ to answer. One way to build QA models that do this is with additional training data comprised of unanswerable questions, created either by employing annotators or through automated methods for unanswerable question generation. To show that the model complexity of existing automated approaches is not justified, we examine a simpler data augmentation method for unanswerable question generation in English: performing antonym and entity swaps on answerable questions. Compared to the prior state-of-the-art, data generated with our training-free and lightweight strategy results in better models (+1.6 F1 points on SQuAD 2.0 data with BERT-large), and has higher human-judged relatedness and readability. We quantify the raw benefits of our approach compared to no augmentation across multiple encoder models, using different amounts of generated data, and also on TydiQA-MinSpan data (+9.3 F1 points with BERT-large). Our results establish swaps as a simple but strong baseline for future work.

Large language models (LLMs) now achieve near-human performance on standard math word problem benchmarks (e.g., GSM8K), yet their true reasoning ability remains disputed. A key concern is that models often produce confident, yet unfounded, answers to unanswerable problems. We introduce TreeCut, a synthetic dataset that systematically generates infinite unanswerable math word problems and their answerable counterparts, by representing each question as a tree and removing chosen necessary conditions. Experiments show TreeCut effectively induce hallucinations in large language models, including GPT-4o and o3-mini, with rates of 64% and 44% in their respective worst-case scenarios under zero-shot setting. Further analysis highlights that deeper or more complex trees, composite item names, and removing necessary condition near the middle of a path all increase the likelihood of hallucinations, underscoring the persistent challenges LLMs face in identifying unanswerable math problems. The dataset generation code and sample data are available at https://github.com/j-bagel/treecut-math.

Existing evaluation frameworks for retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) systems focus on answerable queries, but they overlook the importance of appropriately rejecting unanswerable requests. In this paper, we introduce UAEval4RAG, a framework designed to evaluate whether RAG systems can handle unanswerable queries effectively. We define a taxonomy with six unanswerable categories, and UAEval4RAG automatically synthesizes diverse and challenging queries for any given knowledge base with unanswered ratio and acceptable ratio metrics. We conduct experiments with various RAG components, including retrieval models, rewriting methods, rerankers, language models, and prompting strategies, and reveal hidden trade-offs in performance of RAG systems. Our findings highlight the critical role of component selection and prompt design in optimizing RAG systems to balance the accuracy of answerable queries with high rejection rates of unanswerable ones. UAEval4RAG provides valuable insights and tools for developing more robust and reliable RAG systems.

The development of large high-quality datasets and high-performing models have led to significant advancements in the domain of Extractive Question Answering (EQA). This progress has sparked considerable interest in exploring unanswerable questions within the EQA domain. Training EQA models with unanswerable questions helps them avoid extracting misleading or incorrect answers for queries that lack valid responses. However, manually annotating unanswerable questions is labor-intensive. To address this, we propose AGent, a novel pipeline that automatically creates new unanswerable questions by re-matching a question with a context that lacks the necessary information for a correct answer. In this paper, we demonstrate the usefulness of this AGent pipeline by creating two sets of unanswerable questions from answerable questions in SQuAD and HotpotQA. These created question sets exhibit low error rates. Additionally, models fine-tuned on these questions show comparable performance with those fine-tuned on the SQuAD 2.0 dataset on multiple EQA benchmarks.

Reinforcement finetuning (RFT) has become a standard approach for enhancing the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). However, its impact on model trustworthiness remains underexplored. In this work, we identify and systematically study a critical side effect of RFT, which we term the hallucination tax: a degradation in refusal behavior causing models to produce hallucinated answers to unanswerable questions confidently. To investigate this, we introduce SUM (Synthetic Unanswerable Math), a high-quality dataset of unanswerable math problems designed to probe models' ability to recognize an unanswerable question by reasoning from the insufficient or ambiguous information. Our results show that standard RFT training could reduce model refusal rates by more than 80%, which significantly increases model's tendency to hallucinate. We further demonstrate that incorporating just 10% SUM during RFT substantially restores appropriate refusal behavior, with minimal accuracy trade-offs on solvable tasks. Crucially, this approach enables LLMs to leverage inference-time compute to reason about their own uncertainty and knowledge boundaries, improving generalization not only to out-of-domain math problems but also to factual question answering tasks.

Given only a few observed entries from a low-rank matrix X, matrix completion is the problem of imputing the missing entries, and it formalizes a wide range of real-world settings that involve estimating missing data. However, when there are too few observed entries to complete the matrix, what other aspects of the underlying matrix can be reliably recovered? We study one such problem setting, that of "one-sided" matrix completion, where our goal is to recover the right singular vectors of X, even in the regime where recovering the left singular vectors is impossible, which arises when there are more rows than columns and very few observations. We propose a natural algorithm that involves imputing the missing values of the matrix X^TX and show that even with only two observations per row in X, we can provably recover X^TX as long as we have at least Omega(r^2 d log d) rows, where r is the rank and d is the number of columns. We evaluate our algorithm on one-sided recovery of synthetic data and low-coverage genome sequencing. In these settings, our algorithm substantially outperforms standard matrix completion and a variety of direct factorization methods.

This paper introduces a novel and significant challenge for Vision Language Models (VLMs), termed Unsolvable Problem Detection (UPD). UPD examines the VLM's ability to withhold answers when faced with unsolvable problems in the context of Visual Question Answering (VQA) tasks. UPD encompasses three distinct settings: Absent Answer Detection (AAD), Incompatible Answer Set Detection (IASD), and Incompatible Visual Question Detection (IVQD). To deeply investigate the UPD problem, extensive experiments indicate that most VLMs, including GPT-4V and LLaVA-Next-34B, struggle with our benchmarks to varying extents, highlighting significant room for the improvements. To address UPD, we explore both training-free and training-based solutions, offering new insights into their effectiveness and limitations. We hope our insights, together with future efforts within the proposed UPD settings, will enhance the broader understanding and development of more practical and reliable VLMs.

This paper investigates the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) in the context of understanding their own knowledge and measuring their uncertainty. We argue this is an important feature for mitigating hallucinations. Specifically, we focus on addressing known-unknown questions, characterized by high uncertainty due to the absence of definitive answers. To facilitate our study, we collect a dataset with new Known-Unknown Questions (KUQ) and propose a novel categorization scheme to elucidate the sources of uncertainty. Subsequently, we assess the LLMs' ability to differentiate between known and unknown questions and classify them accordingly. Moreover, we evaluate the quality of their answers in an Open-Ended QA setting. To quantify the uncertainty expressed in the answers, we create a semantic evaluation method that measures the model's accuracy in expressing uncertainty between known vs unknown questions.

Recent Vision-Language Models (VLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in visual understanding and reasoning, and in particular on multiple-choice Visual Question Answering (VQA). Still, these models can make distinctly unnatural errors, for example, providing (wrong) answers to unanswerable VQA questions, such as questions asking about objects that do not appear in the image. To address this issue, we propose CLIP-UP: CLIP-based Unanswerable Problem detection, a novel lightweight method for equipping VLMs with the ability to withhold answers to unanswerable questions. By leveraging CLIP to extract question-image alignment information, CLIP-UP requires only efficient training of a few additional layers, while keeping the original VLMs' weights unchanged. Tested across LLaVA models, CLIP-UP achieves state-of-the-art results on the MM-UPD benchmark for assessing unanswerability in multiple-choice VQA, while preserving the original performance on other tasks.

One of the emerging research trends in natural language understanding is machine reading comprehension (MRC) which is the task to find answers to human questions based on textual data. Existing Vietnamese datasets for MRC research concentrate solely on answerable questions. However, in reality, questions can be unanswerable for which the correct answer is not stated in the given textual data. To address the weakness, we provide the research community with a benchmark dataset named UIT-ViQuAD 2.0 for evaluating the MRC task and question answering systems for the Vietnamese language. We use UIT-ViQuAD 2.0 as a benchmark dataset for the challenge on Vietnamese MRC at the Eighth Workshop on Vietnamese Language and Speech Processing (VLSP 2021). This task attracted 77 participant teams from 34 universities and other organizations. In this article, we present details of the organization of the challenge, an overview of the methods employed by shared-task participants, and the results. The highest performances are 77.24% in F1-score and 67.43% in Exact Match on the private test set. The Vietnamese MRC systems proposed by the top 3 teams use XLM-RoBERTa, a powerful pre-trained language model based on the transformer architecture. The UIT-ViQuAD 2.0 dataset motivates researchers to further explore the Vietnamese machine reading comprehension task and related tasks such as question answering, question generation, and natural language inference.

Machine Reading Comprehension (MRC) has become one of the essential tasks in Natural Language Understanding (NLU) as it is often included in several NLU benchmarks (Liang et al., 2020; Wilie et al., 2020). However, most MRC datasets only have answerable question type, overlooking the importance of unanswerable questions. MRC models trained only on answerable questions will select the span that is most likely to be the answer, even when the answer does not actually exist in the given passage (Rajpurkar et al., 2018). This problem especially remains in medium- to low-resource languages like Indonesian. Existing Indonesian MRC datasets (Purwarianti et al., 2007; Clark et al., 2020) are still inadequate because of the small size and limited question types, i.e., they only cover answerable questions. To fill this gap, we build a new Indonesian MRC dataset called I(n)don'tKnow- MRC (IDK-MRC) by combining the automatic and manual unanswerable question generation to minimize the cost of manual dataset construction while maintaining the dataset quality. Combined with the existing answerable questions, IDK-MRC consists of more than 10K questions in total. Our analysis shows that our dataset significantly improves the performance of Indonesian MRC models, showing a large improvement for unanswerable questions.

This work presents LURK (Latent UnleaRned Knowledge), a novel framework that probes for hidden retained knowledge in unlearned LLMs through adversarial suffix prompting. LURK automatically generates adversarial prompt suffixes designed to elicit residual knowledge about the Harry Potter domain, a commonly used benchmark for unlearning. Our experiments reveal that even models deemed successfully unlearned can leak idiosyncratic information under targeted adversarial conditions, highlighting critical limitations of current unlearning evaluation standards. By uncovering latent knowledge through indirect probing, LURK offers a more rigorous and diagnostic tool for assessing the robustness of unlearning algorithms. All code will be publicly available.

Using a long-standing conjecture from combinatorial group theory, we explore, from multiple perspectives, the challenges of finding rare instances carrying disproportionately high rewards. Based on lessons learned in the context defined by the Andrews-Curtis conjecture, we propose algorithmic enhancements and a topological hardness measure with implications for a broad class of search problems. As part of our study, we also address several open mathematical questions. Notably, we demonstrate the length reducibility of all but two presentations in the Akbulut-Kirby series (1981), and resolve various potential counterexamples in the Miller-Schupp series (1991), including three infinite subfamilies.

Large language models are emerging as scientific assistants, but evaluating their ability to reason from empirical data remains challenging. Benchmarks derived from published studies and human annotations inherit publication bias, known-knowledge bias, label noise, and substantial storage requirements. We present InfiniteScienceGym, a procedurally generated benchmark of scientific repositories paired with a verifiable question-answering task. From a seed, the simulator deterministically generates a self-contained repository with realistic directory structure, files, and tabular data, and a privileged QA generator produces both answerable and unanswerable questions with exact ground truth. This makes it possible to evaluate evidence-grounded reasoning, abstention, and tool-mediated analysis in a controlled setting without distributing a large static corpus. InfiniteScienceGym complements real scientific benchmarks by targeting blind spots and failure modes that are hard to evaluate using published datasets alone. Evaluating both proprietary and open-weight models, we find that none achieve more than 45% accuracy overall, that recognizing unanswerable questions remains a major weakness, and that stronger models tend to use tools more effectively rather than simply consuming more tokens.

For Large Language Models (LLMs) to be reliably deployed in both everyday and high-stakes domains, knowing when not to answer is equally critical as answering correctly. Real-world user queries, which can be underspecified, ill-posed, or fundamentally unanswerable, require LLMs to reason about uncertainty and selectively abstain -- i.e., refuse to answer definitively. However, abstention remains understudied, without a systematic evaluation framework for modern LLMs. In this work, we introduce AbstentionBench, a large-scale benchmark for holistically evaluating abstention across 20 diverse datasets, including questions with unknown answers, underspecification, false premises, subjective interpretations, and outdated information. Evaluating 20 frontier LLMs reveals abstention is an unsolved problem, and one where scaling models is of little use. While recent reasoning LLMs have shown impressive results in complex problem solving, surprisingly, we find that reasoning fine-tuning degrades abstention (by 24% on average), even for math and science domains on which reasoning models are explicitly trained. We find that while a carefully crafted system prompt can boost abstention in practice, it does not resolve models' fundamental inability to reason about uncertainty. We release AbstentionBench to foster research into advancing LLM reliability.

A working citation looks like proof -- but the fact that a link resolves does not mean the cited paper supports the claim. I find that current agentic models rarely fabricate citations (over 99% resolve), yet roughly 15.9% link to the wrong paper. Existing benchmarks miss this failure mode: when a question has a fixed answer key, a model can reproduce the expected source from that key rather than independently verifying that the source supports the claim. I introduce \openbiorq{}, a retrieval-grounded agentic benchmark of 12{,}553 unsolved biomedical research questions across 12 domains that treats open questions as a faithfulness-and-abstention probe. To my knowledge, this is the first biomedical benchmark to combine an agentic setting -- where the model must issue multiple tool calls -- with unsolved questions that have no answer key. Openness is verified against real follow-up evidence rather than a model's parametric knowledge. Difficulty is empirical: I anchor it on questions that three open-weight reference models fail to answer, rather than on subjective hardness labels. On this hardest subset, held-out models from the same lineage as the difficulty anchors solve only ~17%, while three independent frontier agents (Gemini-3-Pro, Opus-4.7, GPT-5.5) span a wide 29-60% range. The benchmark is thus hard, non-saturating (the best agent still leaves ~33-40\% unsolved), and discriminating across capability tiers. Beyond difficulty, I observe agentic collapse on the hardest questions, where agents stop using their tools. For the most collapse-prone model, blocking tool access entirely barely changes its score -- so tools stop paying off exactly where they are needed most. A frozen per-question checklist raises inter-judge agreement from Spearman 0.35 to 0.82.

Elucidating the functional effect of missense variants is of crucial importance, yet challenging. To understand the impact of such variants, we fine-tuned the ESM2 protein language model to classify 20 protein features at amino acid resolution. We used the resulting models to: 1) identify protein features that are enriched in either pathogenic or benign missense variants, 2) compare the characteristics of proteins with reference or alternate alleles to understand how missense variants affect protein functionality. We show that our model can be used to reclassify some variants of unknown significance. We also demonstrate the usage of our models for understanding the potential effect of variants on protein features.

Text-to-SQL systems allow non-SQL experts to interact with relational databases using natural language. However, their tendency to generate executable SQL for ambiguous, out-of-scope, or unanswerable queries introduces a hidden risk, as outputs may be misinterpreted as correct. This risk is especially serious in biomedical contexts, where precision is critical. We therefore present Query Carefully, a pipeline that integrates LLM-based SQL generation with explicit detection and handling of unanswerable inputs. Building on the OncoMX component of ScienceBenchmark, we construct OncoMX-NAQ (No-Answer Questions), a set of 80 no-answer questions spanning 8 categories (non-SQL, out-of-schema/domain, and multiple ambiguity types). Our approach employs llama3.3:70b with schema-aware prompts, explicit No-Answer Rules (NAR), and few-shot examples drawn from both answerable and unanswerable questions. We evaluate SQL exact match, result accuracy, and unanswerable-detection accuracy. On the OncoMX dev split, few-shot prompting with answerable examples increases result accuracy, and adding unanswerable examples does not degrade performance. On OncoMX-NAQ, balanced prompting achieves the highest unanswerable-detection accuracy (0.8), with near-perfect results for structurally defined categories (non-SQL, missing columns, out-of-domain) but persistent challenges for missing-value queries (0.5) and column ambiguity (0.3). A lightweight user interface surfaces interim SQL, execution results, and abstentions, supporting transparent and reliable text-to-SQL in biomedical applications.

Previous studies have shown that automated text-mining tools are becoming increasingly important for successfully unlocking variant information in scientific literature at large scale. Despite multiple attempts in the past, existing tools are still of limited recognition scope and precision. We propose tmVar 3.0: an improved variant recognition and normalization tool. Compared to its predecessors, tmVar 3.0 is able to recognize a wide spectrum of variant related entities (e.g., allele and copy number variants), and to group different variant mentions belonging to the same concept in an article for improved accuracy. Moreover, tmVar3 provides additional variant normalization options such as allele-specific identifiers from the ClinGen Allele Registry. tmVar3 exhibits a state-of-the-art performance with over 90% accuracy in F-measure in variant recognition and normalization, when evaluated on three independent benchmarking datasets. tmVar3 is freely available for download. We have also processed the entire PubMed and PMC with tmVar3 and released its annotations on our FTP. Availability: ftp://ftp.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pub/lu/tmVar3

We propose that benchmarking LLMs on questions which have no reasonable answer actually isn't as silly as it sounds. We also present a benchmark that allows such testing and a method to modify the existing datasets, and discover that existing models demonstrate a performance far from the perfect on such questions. Our code and data artifacts are available at https://github.com/L3G5/impossible-bench

RNA design is the search for a sequence or set of sequences that will fold into predefined structures, also known as the inverse problem of RNA folding. While numerous RNA design methods have been invented to find sequences capable of folding into a target structure, little attention has been given to the identification of undesignable structures according to the minimum free energy (MFE) criterion under the Turner model. In this paper, we address this gap by first introducing mathematical theorems outlining sufficient conditions for recognizing undesignable structures, then proposing efficient algorithms, guided by these theorems, to verify the undesignability of RNA structures. Through the application of these theorems and algorithms to the Eterna100 puzzles, we demonstrate the ability to efficiently establish that 15 of the puzzles indeed fall within the category of undesignable structures. In addition, we provide specific insights from the study of undesignability, in the hope that it will enable more understanding of RNA folding and RNA design.

RNA design aims to find a sequence that folds with highest probability into a designated target structure. However, certain structures are undesignable, meaning no sequence can fold into the target structure under the default (Turner) RNA folding model. Understanding the specific local structures (i.e., "motifs") that contribute to undesignability is crucial for refining RNA folding models and determining the limits of RNA designability. Despite its importance, this problem has received very little attention, and previous efforts are neither scalable nor interpretable. We develop a new theoretical framework for motif (un-)designability, and design scalable and interpretable algorithms to identify minimal undesignable motifs within a given RNA secondary structure. Our approach establishes motif undesignability by searching for rival motifs, rather than exhaustively enumerating all (partial) sequences that could potentially fold into the motif. Furthermore, we exploit rotational invariance in RNA structures to detect, group, and reuse equivalent motifs and to construct a database of unique minimal undesignable motifs. To achieve that, we propose a loop-pair graph representation for motifs and a recursive graph isomorphism algorithm for motif equivalence. Our algorithms successfully identify 24 unique minimal undesignable motifs among 18 undesignable puzzles from the Eterna100 benchmark. Surprisingly, we also find over 350 unique minimal undesignable motifs and 663 undesignable native structures in the ArchiveII dataset, drawn from a diverse set of RNA families. Our source code is available at https://github.com/shanry/RNA-Undesign and our web server is available at http://linearfold.org/motifs.

Document question answering is a task of question answering on given documents such as reports, slides, pamphlets, and websites, and it is a truly demanding task as paper and electronic forms of documents are so common in our society. This is known as a quite challenging task because it requires not only text understanding but also understanding of figures and tables, and hence visual question answering (VQA) methods are often examined in addition to textual approaches. We introduce Japanese Document Question Answering (JDocQA), a large-scale document-based QA dataset, essentially requiring both visual and textual information to answer questions, which comprises 5,504 documents in PDF format and annotated 11,600 question-and-answer instances in Japanese. Each QA instance includes references to the document pages and bounding boxes for the answer clues. We incorporate multiple categories of questions and unanswerable questions from the document for realistic question-answering applications. We empirically evaluate the effectiveness of our dataset with text-based large language models (LLMs) and multimodal models. Incorporating unanswerable questions in finetuning may contribute to harnessing the so-called hallucination generation.

Large language models (LLMs) have a wealth of knowledge that allows them to excel in various Natural Language Processing (NLP) tasks. Current research focuses on enhancing their performance within their existing knowledge. Despite their vast knowledge, LLMs are still limited by the amount of information they can accommodate and comprehend. Therefore, the ability to understand their own limitations on the unknows, referred to as self-knowledge, is of paramount importance. This study aims to evaluate LLMs' self-knowledge by assessing their ability to identify unanswerable or unknowable questions. We introduce an automated methodology to detect uncertainty in the responses of these models, providing a novel measure of their self-knowledge. We further introduce a unique dataset, SelfAware, consisting of unanswerable questions from five diverse categories and their answerable counterparts. Our extensive analysis, involving 20 LLMs including GPT-3, InstructGPT, and LLaMA, discovering an intrinsic capacity for self-knowledge within these models. Moreover, we demonstrate that in-context learning and instruction tuning can further enhance this self-knowledge. Despite this promising insight, our findings also highlight a considerable gap between the capabilities of these models and human proficiency in recognizing the limits of their knowledge.

Ambiguous questions are a challenge for Question Answering models, as they require answers that cover multiple interpretations of the original query. To this end, these models are required to generate long-form answers that often combine conflicting pieces of information. Although recent advances in the field have shown strong capabilities in generating fluent responses, certain research questions remain unanswered. Does model/data scaling improve the answers' quality? Do automated metrics align with human judgment? To what extent do these models ground their answers in evidence? In this study, we aim to thoroughly investigate these aspects, and provide valuable insights into the limitations of the current approaches. To aid in reproducibility and further extension of our work, we open-source our code at https://github.com/din0s/ambig_lfqa.

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

Machine unlearning has emerged as a prevalent technical solution for selectively removing unwanted knowledge absorbed during pre-training, without requiring full retraining. While recent unlearning techniques can effectively remove undesirable content without severely compromising performance on standard benchmarks, we find that they may inadvertently create ``knowledge holes'' -- unintended losses of benign knowledge that standard benchmarks fail to capture. To probe where unlearned models reveal knowledge holes, we propose a test case generation framework that explores both immediate neighbors of unlearned content and broader areas of potential failures. Our evaluation demonstrates significant hidden costs of unlearning: up to 98.7\% of the test cases yield irrelevant or nonsensical responses from unlearned models, despite being answerable by the pretrained model. These findings necessitate rethinking the conventional approach to evaluating knowledge preservation in unlearning, moving beyond standard, static benchmarks.

We consider whether off-policy experience from a smaller, weaker model can elicit capability in a stronger learner that on-policy RL fine-tuning (e.g., GRPO) does not reach. We find that injecting mathematically wrong drafts from a smaller but more domain-trained model -- mismatched to the current problem -- into a stronger learner's GRPO context consistently outperforms standard on-policy GRPO on held-out MATH-500 and out-of-distribution AIME 2025/2026. Concretely, we use Mathstral-7B as the learner, Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B as the draft model, 8.8K Level 3--5 MATH problems (with MATH-500 held out), and train with Dr. GRPO. Mismatch is an active ingredient: shuffling drafts to mismatched problems while holding everything else constant yields +1.62pp on MATH-500 (greedy pass@1) over the matched-wrong variant (n=10 seeds, p=0.0015, Welch's t). In fact, the mismatched-wrong variant leads all other variants we tested on MATH-500 across both greedy pass@1 and sampling pass@k. On out-of-distribution AIME 2025 and 2026, the mismatched-wrong variant uniquely lifts pass@k above both Mathstral-7B (in its native [INST] format) and the Qwen2.5-Math-1.5B draft model at every sample budget from k=1 to k=1024 across 2 seeds (+14.2pp on 2025 and +9.0pp on 2026 at pass@1024 over Mathstral-7B), and at pass@1024 also leads no-draft, matched-wrong, and mismatched-correct variants on both years. All variants use the same prompt with no draft injection at test time. The recipe -- trained on a single GPU with no SFT, no reward models, no synthesized data, and no produce-critique-revise inner loop -- reaches 71.98% MATH-500 on Mathstral-7B-v0.1, the highest published result on this model to our knowledge, surpassing the heavier WizardMath pipeline at 70.9% on full MATH (SFT + PPO with process/instruction reward models).

People increasingly search online for answers to their medical questions but the rate at which medical questions are asked online significantly exceeds the capacity of qualified people to answer them. This leaves many questions unanswered or inadequately answered. Many of these questions are not unique, and reliable identification of similar questions would enable more efficient and effective question answering schema. COVID-19 has only exacerbated this problem. Almost every government agency and healthcare organization has tried to meet the informational need of users by building online FAQs, but there is no way for people to ask their question and know if it is answered on one of these pages. While many research efforts have focused on the problem of general question similarity, these approaches do not generalize well to domains that require expert knowledge to determine semantic similarity, such as the medical domain. In this paper, we show how a double fine-tuning approach of pretraining a neural network on medical question-answer pairs followed by fine-tuning on medical question-question pairs is a particularly useful intermediate task for the ultimate goal of determining medical question similarity. While other pretraining tasks yield an accuracy below 78.7% on this task, our model achieves an accuracy of 82.6% with the same number of training examples, an accuracy of 80.0% with a much smaller training set, and an accuracy of 84.5% when the full corpus of medical question-answer data is used. We also describe a currently live system that uses the trained model to match user questions to COVID-related FAQs.

This paper addresses a regression problem in which output label values are the results of sensing the magnitude of a phenomenon. A low value of such labels can mean either that the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was low or that the sensor made an incomplete observation. This leads to a bias toward lower values in labels and the resultant learning because labels may have lower values due to incomplete observations, even if the actual magnitude of the phenomenon was high. Moreover, because an incomplete observation does not provide any tags indicating incompleteness, we cannot eliminate or impute them. To address this issue, we propose a learning algorithm that explicitly models incomplete observations corrupted with an asymmetric noise that always has a negative value. We show that our algorithm is unbiased as if it were learned from uncorrupted data that does not involve incomplete observations. We demonstrate the advantages of our algorithm through numerical experiments.

We present ReMasker, a new method of imputing missing values in tabular data by extending the masked autoencoding framework. Compared with prior work, ReMasker is both simple -- besides the missing values (i.e., naturally masked), we randomly ``re-mask'' another set of values, optimize the autoencoder by reconstructing this re-masked set, and apply the trained model to predict the missing values; and effective -- with extensive evaluation on benchmark datasets, we show that ReMasker performs on par with or outperforms state-of-the-art methods in terms of both imputation fidelity and utility under various missingness settings, while its performance advantage often increases with the ratio of missing data. We further explore theoretical justification for its effectiveness, showing that ReMasker tends to learn missingness-invariant representations of tabular data. Our findings indicate that masked modeling represents a promising direction for further research on tabular data imputation. The code is publicly available.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized numerous domains with their impressive performance but still face their challenges. A predominant issue is the propensity for these models to generate non-existent facts, a concern termed hallucination. Our research is motivated by the observation that previous instruction tuning methods force the model to complete a sentence no matter whether the model knows the knowledge or not. When the question is out of the parametric knowledge, it will try to make up something and fail to indicate when it lacks knowledge. In this paper, we present a new approach called Refusal-Aware Instruction Tuning (R-Tuning). This approach is formalized by first identifying the knowledge gap between parametric knowledge and the instruction tuning data. Then, we construct the refusal-aware data based on the knowledge intersection, to tune LLMs to refrain from responding to questions beyond its parametric knowledge. Experimental results demonstrate this new instruction tuning approach effectively improves a model's ability to answer known questions and refrain from answering unknown questions. Furthermore, when tested on out-of-domain datasets, the refusal ability was found to be a meta-skill that could be generalized to other tasks. Further analysis surprisingly finds that learning the uncertainty during training displays a better ability to estimate uncertainty than uncertainty-based testing. Our code will be released at https://github.com/shizhediao/R-Tuning.

Yes. Can it cure doom loops? Probably not. The Gemma 4 instruction-tuned models share a reproducible failure: on long factual enumeration prompts, such as listing every episode of a TV series, the 88 IAU constellations, or the 151 original Pokemon, they collapse into repetition, either a tight verbatim loop or a list whose entries decay onto a single answer. These loops occur at rates as high as 95% and survive prompt rewording, inference-engine changes, and most sampling adjustments. In this paper we explore whether this behavior is localized enough to remove by weight edits. To localize the cause, we use per-layer ablation and per-neuron attribution, then confirm the strongest candidates with full-generation sweeps. The loops trace to a small set of MLP neurons (or, in the 26B-A4B Mixture-of-Experts model, a few routed experts) which we suppress with static weight edits. These "surgeries" can be as small as a single sign-inverted neuron (in the E2B model). The size of the effective edits grows with model scale, but in all cases, the loop patterns can be addressed at normal generation budgets while preserving general-purpose benchmark scores. However, the edits do not solve everything: we also study longer thinking budgets, where the two larger models most visibly enter doom looping, i.e. a non-convergent regime in which the model self-corrects in circles over a fact it cannot recall, exhausting the budget without committing to a final answer. We show this residual failure is reduced but not eliminated by the same edits, and argue it is fundamentally a knowledge-precision problem rather than a removable circuit; weight surgery can delete a loop, but it cannot supply a missing fact. Our results are both a feasibility demonstration, that is, evidence that a concrete generation pathology can be localized to a few parameters and edited out, and a delineation of where that approach stops.

A prominent challenge of offline reinforcement learning (RL) is the issue of hidden confounding: unobserved variables may influence both the actions taken by the agent and the observed outcomes. Hidden confounding can compromise the validity of any causal conclusion drawn from data and presents a major obstacle to effective offline RL. In the present paper, we tackle the problem of hidden confounding in the nonidentifiable setting. We propose a definition of uncertainty due to hidden confounding bias, termed delphic uncertainty, which uses variation over world models compatible with the observations, and differentiate it from the well-known epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. We derive a practical method for estimating the three types of uncertainties, and construct a pessimistic offline RL algorithm to account for them. Our method does not assume identifiability of the unobserved confounders, and attempts to reduce the amount of confounding bias. We demonstrate through extensive experiments and ablations the efficacy of our approach on a sepsis management benchmark, as well as on electronic health records. Our results suggest that nonidentifiable hidden confounding bias can be mitigated to improve offline RL solutions in practice.

Can AI make progress on important, unsolved mathematical problems? Large language models are now capable of sophisticated mathematical and scientific reasoning, but whether they can perform novel research is still widely debated and underexplored. We introduce HorizonMath, a benchmark of over 100 predominantly unsolved problems spanning 8 domains in computational and applied mathematics, paired with an open-source evaluation framework for automated verification. Our benchmark targets a class of problems where discovery is hard, requiring meaningful mathematical insight, but verification is computationally efficient and simple. Because these solutions are unknown, HorizonMath is immune to data contamination, and most state-of-the-art models score near 0%. Existing research-level benchmarks instead rely on formal proof verification or manual review, both of which are expensive to scale. Using this platform, we find two problems for which GPT 5.4 Pro proposes solutions that improve on the best-known published results, representing potential novel contributions (pending expert review). We release HorizonMath as an open challenge and a growing community resource, where correct solutions to problems in the unsolved problem classes could constitute novel results in the mathematical literature.

Existing question answering (QA) datasets are no longer challenging to most powerful Large Language Models (LLMs). Traditional QA benchmarks like TriviaQA, NaturalQuestions, ELI5 and HotpotQA mainly study ``known unknowns'' with clear indications of both what information is missing, and how to find it to answer the question. Hence, good performance on these benchmarks provides a false sense of security. A yet unmet need of the NLP community is a bank of non-factoid, multi-perspective questions involving a great deal of unclear information needs, i.e. ``unknown uknowns''. We claim we can find such questions in search engine logs, which is surprising because most question-intent queries are indeed factoid. We present Researchy Questions, a dataset of search engine queries tediously filtered to be non-factoid, ``decompositional'' and multi-perspective. We show that users spend a lot of ``effort'' on these questions in terms of signals like clicks and session length, and that they are also challenging for GPT-4. We also show that ``slow thinking'' answering techniques, like decomposition into sub-questions shows benefit over answering directly. We release sim 100k Researchy Questions, along with the Clueweb22 URLs that were clicked.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have greatly advanced knowledge graph question answering (KGQA), yet existing systems are typically optimized for returning highly relevant but predictable answers. A missing yet desired capacity is to exploit LLMs to suggest surprise and novel ("serendipitious") answers. In this paper, we formally define the serendipity-aware KGQA task and propose the SerenQA framework to evaluate LLMs' ability to uncover unexpected insights in scientific KGQA tasks. SerenQA includes a rigorous serendipity metric based on relevance, novelty, and surprise, along with an expert-annotated benchmark derived from the Clinical Knowledge Graph, focused on drug repurposing. Additionally, it features a structured evaluation pipeline encompassing three subtasks: knowledge retrieval, subgraph reasoning, and serendipity exploration. Our experiments reveal that while state-of-the-art LLMs perform well on retrieval, they still struggle to identify genuinely surprising and valuable discoveries, underscoring a significant room for future improvements. Our curated resources and extended version are released at: https://cwru-db-group.github.io/serenQA.

Abstention Ability (AA) is a critical aspect of Large Language Model (LLM) reliability, referring to an LLM's capability to withhold responses when uncertain or lacking a definitive answer, without compromising performance. Although previous studies have attempted to improve AA, they lack a standardised evaluation method and remain unsuitable for black-box models where token prediction probabilities are inaccessible. This makes comparative analysis challenging, especially for state-of-the-art closed-source commercial LLMs. This paper bridges this gap by introducing a black-box evaluation approach and a new dataset, Abstain-QA, crafted to rigorously assess AA across varied question types (answerable and unanswerable), domains (well-represented and under-represented), and task types (fact centric and reasoning). We also propose a new confusion matrix, the ''Answerable-Unanswerable Confusion Matrix'' (AUCM) which serves as the basis for evaluating AA, by offering a structured and precise approach for assessment. Finally, we explore the impact of three prompting strategies-Strict Prompting, Verbal Confidence Thresholding, and Chain-of-Thought (CoT)-on improving AA. Our results indicate that even powerful models like GPT-4, Mixtral 8x22b encounter difficulties with abstention; however, strategic approaches such as Strict prompting and CoT can enhance this capability.

Machine learning models are often trained to predict the outcome resulting from a human decision. For example, if a doctor decides to test a patient for disease, will the patient test positive? A challenge is that historical decision-making determines whether the outcome is observed: we only observe test outcomes for patients doctors historically tested. Untested patients, for whom outcomes are unobserved, may differ from tested patients along observed and unobserved dimensions. We propose a Bayesian model class which captures this setting. The purpose of the model is to accurately estimate risk for both tested and untested patients. Estimating this model is challenging due to the wide range of possibilities for untested patients. To address this, we propose two domain constraints which are plausible in health settings: a prevalence constraint, where the overall disease prevalence is known, and an expertise constraint, where the human decision-maker deviates from purely risk-based decision-making only along a constrained feature set. We show theoretically and on synthetic data that domain constraints improve parameter inference. We apply our model to a case study of cancer risk prediction, showing that the model's inferred risk predicts cancer diagnoses, its inferred testing policy captures known public health policies, and it can identify suboptimalities in test allocation. Though our case study is in healthcare, our analysis reveals a general class of domain constraints which can improve model estimation in many settings.

Benchmarks shape progress in AI research. A useful benchmark should be both difficult and realistic: questions should challenge frontier models while also reflecting real-world usage. Yet, current paradigms face a difficulty-realism tension: exam-style benchmarks are often made artificially difficult with limited real-world value, while benchmarks based on real user interaction often skew toward easy, high-frequency problems. In this work, we explore a radically different paradigm: assessing models on unsolved questions. Rather than a static benchmark scored once, we curate unsolved questions and evaluate models asynchronously over time with validator-assisted screening and community verification. We introduce UQ, a testbed of 500 challenging, diverse questions sourced from Stack Exchange, spanning topics from CS theory and math to sci-fi and history, probing capabilities including reasoning, factuality, and browsing. UQ is difficult and realistic by construction: unsolved questions are often hard and naturally arise when humans seek answers, thus solving them yields direct real-world value. Our contributions are threefold: (1) UQ-Dataset and its collection pipeline combining rule-based filters, LLM judges, and human review to ensure question quality (e.g., well-defined and difficult); (2) UQ-Validators, compound validation strategies that leverage the generator-validator gap to provide evaluation signals and pre-screen candidate solutions for human review; and (3) UQ-Platform, an open platform where experts collectively verify questions and solutions. The top model passes UQ-validation on only 15% of questions, and preliminary human verification has already identified correct answers among those that passed. UQ charts a path for evaluating frontier models on real-world, open-ended challenges, where success pushes the frontier of human knowledge. We release UQ at https://uq.stanford.edu.

Retrieval-augmented language models (RALMs) represent a substantial advancement in the capabilities of large language models, notably in reducing factual hallucination by leveraging external knowledge sources. However, the reliability of the retrieved information is not always guaranteed. The retrieval of irrelevant data can lead to misguided responses, and potentially causing the model to overlook its inherent knowledge, even when it possesses adequate information to address the query. Moreover, standard RALMs often struggle to assess whether they possess adequate knowledge, both intrinsic and retrieved, to provide an accurate answer. In situations where knowledge is lacking, these systems should ideally respond with "unknown" when the answer is unattainable. In response to these challenges, we introduces Chain-of-Noting (CoN), a novel approach aimed at improving the robustness of RALMs in facing noisy, irrelevant documents and in handling unknown scenarios. The core idea of CoN is to generate sequential reading notes for retrieved documents, enabling a thorough evaluation of their relevance to the given question and integrating this information to formulate the final answer. We employed ChatGPT to create training data for CoN, which was subsequently trained on an LLaMa-2 7B model. Our experiments across four open-domain QA benchmarks show that RALMs equipped with CoN significantly outperform standard RALMs. Notably, CoN achieves an average improvement of +7.9 in EM score given entirely noisy retrieved documents and +10.5 in rejection rates for real-time questions that fall outside the pre-training knowledge scope.