Daily Papers

Reliable high-definition (HD) map construction is crucial for the driving safety of autonomous vehicles. Although recent studies demonstrate improved performance, their generalization capability across unfamiliar driving scenes remains unexplored. To tackle this issue, we propose UIGenMap, an uncertainty-instructed structure injection approach for generalizable HD map vectorization, which concerns the uncertainty resampling in statistical distribution and employs explicit instance features to reduce excessive reliance on training data. Specifically, we introduce the perspective-view (PV) detection branch to obtain explicit structural features, in which the uncertainty-aware decoder is designed to dynamically sample probability distributions considering the difference in scenes. With probabilistic embedding and selection, UI2DPrompt is proposed to construct PV-learnable prompts. These PV prompts are integrated into the map decoder by designed hybrid injection to compensate for neglected instance structures. To ensure real-time inference, a lightweight Mimic Query Distillation is designed to learn from PV prompts, which can serve as an efficient alternative to the flow of PV branches. Extensive experiments on challenging geographically disjoint (geo-based) data splits demonstrate that our UIGenMap achieves superior performance, with +5.7 mAP improvement on the nuScenes dataset. Source code will be available at https://github.com/xiaolul2/UIGenMap.

Transformer-based trackers have achieved promising success and become the dominant tracking paradigm due to their accuracy and efficiency. Despite the substantial progress, most of the existing approaches tackle object tracking as a deterministic coordinate regression problem, while the target localization uncertainty has been greatly overlooked, which hampers trackers' ability to maintain reliable target state prediction in challenging scenarios. To address this issue, we propose UncTrack, a novel uncertainty-aware transformer tracker that predicts the target localization uncertainty and incorporates this uncertainty information for accurate target state inference. Specifically, UncTrack utilizes a transformer encoder to perform feature interaction between template and search images. The output features are passed into an uncertainty-aware localization decoder (ULD) to coarsely predict the corner-based localization and the corresponding localization uncertainty. Then the localization uncertainty is sent into a prototype memory network (PMN) to excavate valuable historical information to identify whether the target state prediction is reliable or not. To enhance the template representation, the samples with high confidence are fed back into the prototype memory bank for memory updating, making the tracker more robust to challenging appearance variations. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms other state-of-the-art methods. Our code is available at https://github.com/ManOfStory/UncTrack.

Medical phrase grounding is crucial for identifying relevant regions in medical images based on phrase queries, facilitating accurate image analysis and diagnosis. However, current methods rely on manual extraction of key phrases from medical reports, reducing efficiency and increasing the workload for clinicians. Additionally, the lack of model confidence estimation limits clinical trust and usability. In this paper, we introduce a novel task called Medical Report Grounding (MRG), which aims to directly identify diagnostic phrases and their corresponding grounding boxes from medical reports in an end-to-end manner. To address this challenge, we propose uMedGround, a robust and reliable framework that leverages a multimodal large language model to predict diagnostic phrases by embedding a unique token, <BOX>, into the vocabulary to enhance detection capabilities. A vision encoder-decoder processes the embedded token and input image to generate grounding boxes. Critically, uMedGround incorporates an uncertainty-aware prediction model, significantly improving the robustness and reliability of grounding predictions. Experimental results demonstrate that uMedGround outperforms state-of-the-art medical phrase grounding methods and fine-tuned large visual-language models, validating its effectiveness and reliability. This study represents a pioneering exploration of the MRG task, marking the first-ever endeavor in this domain. Additionally, we demonstrate the applicability of uMedGround in medical visual question answering and class-based localization tasks, where it highlights visual evidence aligned with key diagnostic phrases, supporting clinicians in interpreting various types of textual inputs, including free-text reports, visual question answering queries, and class labels.

In this paper, we introduce SalsaNext for the uncertainty-aware semantic segmentation of a full 3D LiDAR point cloud in real-time. SalsaNext is the next version of SalsaNet [1] which has an encoder-decoder architecture where the encoder unit has a set of ResNet blocks and the decoder part combines upsampled features from the residual blocks. In contrast to SalsaNet, we introduce a new context module, replace the ResNet encoder blocks with a new residual dilated convolution stack with gradually increasing receptive fields and add the pixel-shuffle layer in the decoder. Additionally, we switch from stride convolution to average pooling and also apply central dropout treatment. To directly optimize the Jaccard index, we further combine the weighted cross-entropy loss with Lovasz-Softmax loss [2]. We finally inject a Bayesian treatment to compute the epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties for each point in the cloud. We provide a thorough quantitative evaluation on the Semantic-KITTI dataset [3], which demonstrates that the proposed SalsaNext outperforms other state-of-the-art semantic segmentation networks and ranks first on the Semantic-KITTI leaderboard. We also release our source code https://github.com/TiagoCortinhal/SalsaNext.

Building extraction aims to segment building pixels from remote sensing images and plays an essential role in many applications, such as city planning and urban dynamic monitoring. Over the past few years, deep learning methods with encoder-decoder architectures have achieved remarkable performance due to their powerful feature representation capability. Nevertheless, due to the varying scales and styles of buildings, conventional deep learning models always suffer from uncertain predictions and cannot accurately distinguish the complete footprints of the building from the complex distribution of ground objects, leading to a large degree of omission and commission. In this paper, we realize the importance of uncertain prediction and propose a novel and straightforward Uncertainty-Aware Network (UANet) to alleviate this problem. To verify the performance of our proposed UANet, we conduct extensive experiments on three public building datasets, including the WHU building dataset, the Massachusetts building dataset, and the Inria aerial image dataset. Results demonstrate that the proposed UANet outperforms other state-of-the-art algorithms by a large margin.

Multimodal learning has seen great success mining data features from multiple modalities with remarkable model performance improvement. Meanwhile, federated learning (FL) addresses the data sharing problem, enabling privacy-preserved collaborative training to provide sufficient precious data. Great potential, therefore, arises with the confluence of them, known as multimodal federated learning. However, limitation lies in the predominant approaches as they often assume that each local dataset records samples from all modalities. In this paper, we aim to bridge this gap by proposing an Unimodal Training - Multimodal Prediction (UTMP) framework under the context of multimodal federated learning. We design HA-Fedformer, a novel transformer-based model that empowers unimodal training with only a unimodal dataset at the client and multimodal testing by aggregating multiple clients' knowledge for better accuracy. The key advantages are twofold. Firstly, to alleviate the impact of data non-IID, we develop an uncertainty-aware aggregation method for the local encoders with layer-wise Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling. Secondly, to overcome the challenge of unaligned language sequence, we implement a cross-modal decoder aggregation to capture the hidden signal correlation between decoders trained by data from different modalities. Our experiments on popular sentiment analysis benchmarks, CMU-MOSI and CMU-MOSEI, demonstrate that HA-Fedformer significantly outperforms state-of-the-art multimodal models under the UTMP federated learning frameworks, with 15%-20% improvement on most attributes.

Code generation using large language models (LLMs) is highly sensitive to the choice of tokens during decoding, especially at points of uncertainty that critically affect the generated program's logic. Conventional decoding methods such as greedy search and beam search apply uniform treatment to all tokens, neglecting the unique uncertainty characteristics inherent in code generation, which can result in suboptimal outputs. In this work, we conduct an empirical analysis demonstrating that a significant portion of generation errors arises from incorrect token ranking at high-uncertainty steps, where the ground truth token exists in the candidate set but fails to be ranked first. Inspired by this insight, we introduce AdaDec, an adaptive decoding framework guided by token-level uncertainty quantified via Shannon entropy. AdaDec dynamically learns uncertainty thresholds tailored to each model and employs a pause-then-rerank mechanism with lookahead when the uncertainty surpasses these thresholds. Evaluation on the HumanEval and MBPP benchmarks reveals that AdaDec achieves up to a 15.5% improvement in Pass@1 accuracy compared to greedy decoding, matches or outperforms traditional beam search, and reduces both computational overhead and latency through targeted, selective pausing. Our findings suggest that uncertainty-aware adaptive decoding holds considerable potential for enhancing both the reliability and efficiency of code generation with LLMs.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates large language model (LLM) reasoning by using a small draft model to generate candidate tokens, which the target LLM either accepts directly or regenerates upon rejection. However, excessive alignment between the draft and target models constrains SD to the performance of the target LLM. To address this limitation, we propose Entropy-Aware Speculative Decoding (EASD), a training-free enhancement. Building on standard SD, EASD incorporates a dynamic entropy-based penalty. At each decoding step, we employ the entropy of the sampling distribution to quantify model uncertainty. When both models exhibit high entropy with substantial overlap among their top-N predictions, the corresponding token is rejected and re-sampled by the target LLM. This penalty prevents low-confidence errors from propagating. By incorporating draft-model verification, EASD enables the possibility of surpassing the target model's inherent performance. Experiments across multiple reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that EASD consistently outperforms existing SD methods and, in most cases, surpasses the target LLM itself. We further prove that the efficiency of EASD is comparable to that of SD. The code can be found in the Supplementary Materials.

Deploying large language models (LLMs) for long-context inference remains challenging due to their substantial memory and computational demands. While techniques such as Key-Value (KV) cache compression are designed to reduce memory usage, they often neglect the structured sparsity inherent in the relationship between hidden states and their corresponding KV cache. In this work, we explore the role of uncertainty as a potential indicator of sparsity within LLMs. We propose UNComp, an uncertainty-aware framework that leverages truncated matrix entropy to identify areas of low information content, thereby revealing sparsity patterns that can be used for adaptive compression. Unlike traditional methods that apply uniform compression, UNComp dynamically adjusts its approach to compression, guided by uncertainty measures that reflect the importance of various model components. Our analysis shows that sparsity patterns, when derived from uncertainty estimates, can be exploited to reveal special long-range dependencies, such as retrieval heads and retrieval layers. This perspective not only enhances our understanding of how compression can be optimized but also provides new insights into the inherent sparsity of LLMs during long-context inference. By focusing on uncertainty to analyze the sparsity pattern in detail, UNComp reduces the KV cache size to 4.74% of the original, achieves a 6% prefill speedup, and improves throughput by 6.4x - not only delivering strong lossless compression performance, but also validating the effectiveness of the underlying theoretical tool. We release the code at https://github.com/menik1126/UNComp.

Autoregressive generation in large language models (LLMs) conventionally decodes from the final layer, assuming that deeper representations yield more reliable next-token predictions. We revisit this assumption by revealing a recurring Guess-Refine-Perturb dynamic: early layers form coarse guesses, intermediate layers refine reasoning-relevant semantics, and final layers can perturb these refined predictions toward generic or alignment-preferred tokens. We introduce Confident Decoding, a training-free decoding strategy that dynamically selects the most reliable near-final layer through entropy-guided conservative backward search. We further provide a theoretical formulation of layer selection as an optimal stopping problem, showing that under bounded projection noise and dominant late-stage alignment perturbation, our search rule filters perturbation while bounding the loss relative to the oracle refinement layer. Experiments across dense and Mixture-of-Experts LLMs demonstrate consistent gains on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including GPQA-Diamond, Omni-MATH, and HLE, with zero memory overhead and less than 2% latency increase. These results suggest dynamically bypassing final-layer perturbations can unlock stronger reasoning behavior from aligned LLMs.

Large language models (LLMs) often suffer from context faithfulness hallucinations, where outputs deviate from retrieved information due to insufficient context utilization and high output uncertainty. Our uncertainty evaluation experiments reveal a strong correlation between high uncertainty and hallucinations. We hypothesize that attention mechanisms encode signals indicative of contextual utilization, validated through probing analysis. Based on these insights, we propose Dynamic Attention-Guided Context Decoding (DAGCD), a lightweight framework that integrates attention distributions and uncertainty signals in a single-pass decoding process. Experiments across QA datasets demonstrate DAGCD's effectiveness, achieving significant improvements in faithfulness and robustness while maintaining computational efficiency.

As instruction-tuned large language models (LLMs) evolve, aligning pretrained foundation models presents increasing challenges. Existing alignment strategies, which typically leverage diverse and high-quality data sources, often overlook the intrinsic uncertainty of tasks, learning all data samples equally. This may lead to suboptimal data efficiency and model performance. In response, we propose uncertainty-aware learning (UAL) to improve the model alignment of different task scenarios, by introducing the sample uncertainty (elicited from more capable LLMs). We implement UAL in a simple fashion -- adaptively setting the label smoothing value of training according to the uncertainty of individual samples. Analysis shows that our UAL indeed facilitates better token clustering in the feature space, validating our hypothesis. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks demonstrate that our UAL significantly and consistently outperforms standard supervised fine-tuning. Notably, LLMs aligned in a mixed scenario have achieved an average improvement of 10.62\% on high-entropy tasks (i.e., AlpacaEval leaderboard), and 1.81\% on complex low-entropy tasks (i.e., MetaMath and GSM8K).

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities in code generation. However, the effects of hallucinations (e.g., output noise) make it particularly challenging for LLMs to generate high-quality code in one pass. In this work, we propose a simple and effective uncertainty-aware selective contrastive decoding (USCD) mechanism to improve the quality of one-pass code generation in LLMs and reduce the impact of output noise. To be specific, we first elaborately designed a negative prompt (namely lame prompt) to output noise by removing input-output examples from the standard few-shot prompt. Our preliminary study shows that the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JS divergence) between token distribution uncertainty and the output noise is relatively low (approximately 0.25), indicating their high relevance. Then, we selectively eliminate output noise induced by lame prompts based on the uncertainty of the prediction distribution from the standard prompt. Notably, our proposed plug-and-play mechanism is an inference-only method, enjoying appealing flexibility. Extensive experiments on widely used benchmarks, e.g., HumanEval, MBPP, and MultiPL-E, upon several LLMs (i.e., Inocder-6b, CodeLlama-7b, WizardCoder-15b, StarCoder, and Llama2-7b), demonstrate that our proposed USCD significantly improves one-pass code generation, with an average pass@1 scores increase of 16.59\%. We will release code and data on GitHub.

Large language models demonstrate remarkable in-context learning capabilities, adapting to new tasks without parameter updates. While this phenomenon has been successfully modeled as implicit Bayesian inference, recent empirical findings reveal a fundamental contradiction: transformers systematically violate the martingale property, a cornerstone requirement of Bayesian updating on exchangeable data. This violation challenges the theoretical foundations underlying uncertainty quantification in critical applications. Our theoretical analysis establishes four key results: (1) positional encodings induce martingale violations of order Theta(log n / n); (2) transformers achieve information-theoretic optimality with excess risk O(n^{-1/2}) in expectation over orderings; (3) the implicit posterior representation converges to the true Bayesian posterior in the space of sufficient statistics; and (4) we derive the optimal chain-of-thought length as k^* = Theta(nlog(1/varepsilon)) with explicit constants, providing a principled approach to reduce inference costs while maintaining performance. Empirical validation on GPT-3 confirms predictions (1)-(3), with transformers reaching 99\% of theoretical entropy limits within 20 examples. Our framework provides practical methods for extracting calibrated uncertainty estimates from position-aware architectures and optimizing computational efficiency in deployment.

In many applications of LLMs, natural language responses often have an underlying structure such as representing discrete labels, numerical values, or graphs. Yet, existing decoding and uncertainty estimation methods operate only in language space and largely disregard structural information. We address this by modeling LLM outputs directly in a task-dependent latent structure. By equipping this structure with a dissimilarity measure, we can compute Bayes-optimal responses. These are not selected from sampled generations but are newly synthesized by combining individual responses in the latent space. Across different tasks, Bayes-optimal responses consistently outperform standard decoding methods like beam search. Moreover, quantifying uncertainty via the induced Bayesian risk captures variations in terms of the latent structure and improves alignment with output quality and correctness. Our decision-theoretic framework is applicable to any problem that admits a latent response structure and enables reliable task-aware LLM predictions.

Inference-time optimization scales computation to derive deliberate reasoning steps for effective performance. While previous search-based strategies address the short-sightedness of auto-regressive generation, the vast search space leads to excessive exploration and insufficient exploitation. To strike an efficient balance to derive the optimal step, we frame the decoding strategy as foresight sampling, leveraging simulated future steps to obtain globally optimal step estimation. Built on it, we propose a novel decoding strategy, named phi-Decoding. To provide a precise and expressive estimation of step value, phi-Decoding approximates two distributions via foresight and clustering. Sampling from the joint distribution, the optimal steps can be selected for exploitation. To support adaptive computation allocation, we propose in-width and in-depth pruning strategies, featuring a light-weight solution to achieve inference efficiency. Extensive experiments across seven benchmarks show phi-Decoding outperforms strong baselines in both performance and efficiency. Additional analysis demonstrates its generalization across various LLMs and scalability across a wide range of computing budgets. The code will be released at https://github.com/xufangzhi/phi-Decoding, and the open-source PyPI package is coming soon.

We present Entropy Adaptive Decoding (EAD), a novel approach for efficient language model inference that dynamically switches between different-sized models based on prediction uncertainty. By monitoring rolling entropy in model logit distributions, our method identifies text regions where a smaller model suffices and switches to a larger model only when prediction uncertainty exceeds a threshold. Unlike speculative decoding approaches that maintain perfect output fidelity through verification, EAD accepts controlled output divergence in exchange for computational efficiency. Our experiments on the MATH benchmark demonstrate remarkable efficiency gains across different model families. Using the LLaMA family, we maintain 96.7\% of the 11B model's performance (50.4\% vs 52.1\%) while using it for only 43\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 41.5\%. These gains become more pronounced with larger size differentials in the Qwen family, where we achieve 92.9\% of the 14B model's performance (74.3\% vs 80.0\%) while using it for just 25\% of tokens, decreasing computational cost by 67\%. The consistency of these results across model pairs suggests that language model computation can be significantly optimized by selectively deploying model capacity based on local generation complexity. Our findings indicate that current approaches to model inference may be unnecessarily conservative in their pursuit of perfect output fidelity, and that accepting minor performance trade-offs can enable dramatic reductions in computational costs.

Speculative Decoding (SD) enforces strict distributional equivalence to the target model when accepting candidate tokens. While it maintains the target model's generation quality, this strict equivalence limits the speedup achievable by SD and prevents users from trading deviations from the target distribution in exchange for further inference speed gains. To address these limitations, we introduce Fuzzy Speculative Decoding (FSD) - a decoding algorithm that generalizes SD by accepting candidate tokens based on the divergences between the target and draft model distributions. By allowing for controlled divergence from the target model, FSD enables users to flexibly trade generation quality for inference speed. Across several benchmarks, our method is able to achieve significant runtime improvements of over 5 tokens per second faster than SD at only an approximate 2% absolute reduction in benchmark accuracy. In many cases, FSD is even able to match SD benchmark accuracy at over 2 tokens per second faster, demonstrating that distributional equivalence is not necessary to maintain target model performance. Furthermore, FSD can be seamlessly integrated into existing SD extensions; we demonstrate this by applying FSD to EAGLE-2, greatly enhancing this existing extension's efficiency while allowing it to leverage FSD's tunable quality-speed trade-off.

Speculative decoding has emerged as a popular method to accelerate the inference of Large Language Models (LLMs) while retaining their superior text generation performance. Previous methods either adopt a fixed speculative decoding configuration regardless of the prefix tokens, or train draft models in an offline or online manner to align them with the context. This paper proposes a training-free online learning framework to adaptively choose the configuration of the hyperparameters for speculative decoding as text is being generated. We first formulate this hyperparameter selection problem as a Multi-Armed Bandit problem and provide a general speculative decoding framework BanditSpec. Furthermore, two bandit-based hyperparameter selection algorithms, UCBSpec and EXP3Spec, are designed and analyzed in terms of a novel quantity, the stopping time regret. We upper bound this regret under both stochastic and adversarial reward settings. By deriving an information-theoretic impossibility result, it is shown that the regret performance of UCBSpec is optimal up to universal constants. Finally, extensive empirical experiments with LLaMA3 and Qwen2 demonstrate that our algorithms are effective compared to existing methods, and the throughput is close to the oracle best hyperparameter in simulated real-life LLM serving scenarios with diverse input prompts.

Masked Diffusion Models (MDMs) offer greater flexibility in decoding order than autoregressive models but require careful planning to achieve high-quality generation. Existing samplers typically adopt greedy heuristics, prioritizing positions with the highest local certainty to decode at each step. Through failure case analysis, we identify a fundamental limitation of this approach: it neglects the downstream impact of current decoding choices on subsequent steps and fails to minimize cumulative uncertainty. In particular, these methods do not fully exploit the non-causal nature of MDMs, which enables evaluating how a decoding decision reshapes token probabilities/uncertainty across all remaining masked positions. To bridge this gap, we propose the Info-Gain Sampler, a principled decoding framework that balances immediate uncertainty with information gain over future masked tokens. Extensive evaluations across diverse architectures and tasks (reasoning, coding, creative writing, and image generation) demonstrate that Info-Gain Sampler consistently outperforms existing samplers for MDMs. For instance, it achieves a 3.6% improvement in average accuracy on reasoning tasks and a 63.1% win-rate in creative writing. Notably, on reasoning tasks it reduces cumulative uncertainty from 78.4 to 48.6, outperforming the best baseline by a large margin. The code will be available at https://github.com/yks23/Information-Gain-Sampler.

An utterance-level speaker embedding is typically obtained by aggregating a sequence of frame-level representations. However, in real-world scenarios, individual frames encode not only speaker-relevant information but also various nuisance factors. As a result, different frames contribute unequally to the final utterance-level speaker representation for Automatic Speaker Verification systems. To address this issue, we propose to estimate the inherent uncertainty of each frame and assign adaptive weights accordingly, where frames with higher uncertainty receive lower attention. Based on this idea, we present U3-xi, a comprehensive framework designed to produce more reliable and interpretable uncertainty estimates for speaker embeddings. Specifically, we introduce several strategies for uncertainty supervision. First, we propose speaker-level uncertainty supervision via a Stochastic Variance Loss, where the distance between an utterance embedding and its corresponding speaker centroid serves as a pseudo ground truth for uncertainty learning. Second, we incorporate global-level uncertainty supervision by injecting the predicted uncertainty into the sof tmax scale during training. This adaptive scaling mechanism adjusts the sharpness of the decision boundary according to sample difficulty, providing global guidance. Third, we redesign the uncertainty estimation module by integrating a Transformer encoder with multi-view self-attention, enabling the model to capture rich local and long-range temporal dependencies. Comprehensive experiments demonstrate that U3-xi is model-agnostic and can be seamlessly applied to various speaker encoders. In particular, when applied to ECAPA-TDNN, it achieves 21.1% and 15.57% relative improvements on the VoxCeleb1 test sets in terms of EER and minDCF, respectively.

Despite extensive efforts to align Large Language Models (LLMs) with human values and safety rules, jailbreak attacks that exploit certain vulnerabilities continuously emerge, highlighting the need to strengthen existing LLMs with additional safety properties to defend against these attacks. However, tuning large models has become increasingly resource intensive and may have difficulty ensuring consistent performance. We introduce Speculative Safety-Aware Decoding (SSD), a lightweight decoding-time approach that equips LLMs with the desired safety property while accelerating inference. We assume that there exists a small language model that possesses this desired property. SSD integrates speculative sampling during decoding and leverages the match ratio between the small and composite models to quantify jailbreak risks. This enables SSD to dynamically switch between decoding schemes to prioritize utility or safety, to handle the challenge of different model capacities. The output token is then sampled from a new distribution that combines the distributions of the original and the small models. Experimental results show that SSD successfully equips the large model with the desired safety property, and also allows the model to remain helpful to benign queries. Furthermore, SSD accelerates the inference time, thanks to the speculative sampling design.

Recent advances in handling long sequences have facilitated the exploration of long-context in-context learning (ICL). While much of the existing research emphasizes performance improvements driven by additional in-context examples, the influence on the trustworthiness of generated responses remains underexplored. This paper addresses this gap by investigating how increased examples influence predictive uncertainty, an essential aspect in trustworthiness. We begin by systematically quantifying the uncertainty of ICL with varying shot counts, analyzing the impact of example quantity. Through uncertainty decomposition, we introduce a novel perspective on performance enhancement, with a focus on epistemic uncertainty (EU). Our results reveal that additional examples reduce total uncertainty in both simple and complex tasks by injecting task-specific knowledge, thereby diminishing EU and enhancing performance. For complex tasks, these advantages emerge only after addressing the increased noise and uncertainty associated with longer inputs. Finally, we explore the evolution of internal confidence across layers, unveiling the mechanisms driving the reduction in uncertainty.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable potential in natural language generation and instruction following, a persistent challenge lies in their susceptibility to "hallucinations", which erodes trust in their outputs. Although Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) presents a promising solution, its accurate implementation within the context of LLMs remains a significant hurdle. To address this critical roadblock, our research originates from a fundamental heuristic insight: tokens within auto-regressive LLM-generated text do not equally reflect the underlying meaning. Some tokens carry greater relevance and representativeness than others, owing to the phenomenon of "linguistic redundancy", wherein a select few keywords suffice to convey the essence of lengthy sentences. Regrettably, existing methodologies treat all tokens with equal importance when estimating uncertainty, disregarding these inherent generative inequalities. Our analysis reveals a significant issue with state-of-the-art: numerous tokens (and sentences) of limited semantic significance receive equal or even excessive weighting during uncertainty estimation. To rectify this bias, we propose to jointly Shifting Attention to more Relevant (SAR) components, at both the token- and the sentence-levels for accurate uncertainty estimation. We conduct extensive experiments involving a range of popular "off-the-shelf" LLMs, including instruction-tuned LLMs such as Vicuna, WizardLM, and LLaMA-2-chat, as well as pretrained LLMs like OPT and LLaMA, with model sizes extending up to 33B parameters. We carry out evaluation across various free-form question-answering tasks, encompassing domains such as reading comprehension, science Q&A, and medical Q&A. Our experimental results demonstrate the superior performance of SAR in addressing the challenges of uncertainty estimation within the realm of LLMs.

Accurate uncertainty quantification (UQ) in Large Language Models (LLMs) is critical for trustworthy deployment. While real-world language is inherently ambiguous, reflecting aleatoric uncertainty, existing UQ methods are typically benchmarked against tasks with no ambiguity. In this work, we demonstrate that while current uncertainty estimators perform well under the restrictive assumption of no ambiguity, they degrade to close-to-random performance on ambiguous data. To this end, we introduce MAQA* and AmbigQA*, the first ambiguous question-answering (QA) datasets equipped with ground-truth answer distributions estimated from factual co-occurrence. We find this performance deterioration to be consistent across different estimation paradigms: using the predictive distribution itself, internal representations throughout the model, and an ensemble of models. We show that this phenomenon can be theoretically explained, revealing that predictive-distribution and ensemble-based estimators are fundamentally limited under ambiguity. Overall, our study reveals a key shortcoming of current UQ methods for LLMs and motivates a rethinking of current modeling paradigms.

Recent advances in masked diffusion models (MDMs) have established them as powerful non-autoregressive alternatives for sequence generation. Nevertheless, our preliminary experiments reveal that the generation quality of MDMs is still highly sensitive to the choice of decoding strategy. In particular, widely adopted uncertainty-based samplers suffer from two key limitations: a lack of global trajectory control and a pronounced bias toward trivial tokens in the early stages of decoding. These shortcomings restrict the full potential of MDMs. In this work, we introduce Position-Aware Confidence-Calibrated Sampling (PC-Sampler), a novel decoding strategy that unifies global trajectory planning with content-aware informativeness maximization. PC-Sampler incorporates a position-aware weighting mechanism to regulate the decoding path and a calibrated confidence score to suppress the premature selection of trivial tokens. Extensive experiments on three advanced MDMs across seven challenging benchmarks-including logical reasoning and planning tasks-demonstrate that PC-Sampler consistently outperforms existing MDM decoding strategies by more than 10% on average, significantly narrowing the performance gap with state-of-the-art autoregressive models. All codes are available at https://github.com/NEUIR/PC-Sampler.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable performance across diverse tasks by encoding vast amounts of factual knowledge. However, they are still prone to hallucinations, generating incorrect or misleading information, often accompanied by high uncertainty. Existing methods for hallucination detection primarily focus on quantifying internal uncertainty, which arises from missing or conflicting knowledge within the model. However, hallucinations can also stem from external uncertainty, where ambiguous user queries lead to multiple possible interpretations. In this work, we introduce Semantic Volume, a novel mathematical measure for quantifying both external and internal uncertainty in LLMs. Our approach perturbs queries and responses, embeds them in a semantic space, and computes the determinant of the Gram matrix of the embedding vectors, capturing their dispersion as a measure of uncertainty. Our framework provides a generalizable and unsupervised uncertainty detection method without requiring white-box access to LLMs. We conduct extensive experiments on both external and internal uncertainty detection, demonstrating that our Semantic Volume method consistently outperforms existing baselines in both tasks. Additionally, we provide theoretical insights linking our measure to differential entropy, unifying and extending previous sampling-based uncertainty measures such as the semantic entropy. Semantic Volume is shown to be a robust and interpretable approach to improving the reliability of LLMs by systematically detecting uncertainty in both user queries and model responses.

The task of Error Prediction, namely predicting whether a model output is correct, is commonly tackled with Uncertainty Quantification (UQ). However, while uncertainty metrics capture when models lack knowledge or capacity to make a prediction, they also reflect aleatoric uncertainty, which is inherent in the model input and context. This paper presents a method for improving error prediction for Large Language Models (LLMs), by disentangling input ambiguity from UQ signal. We conduct experiments on the task of Question Answering (QA) with six UQ metrics and show that UQ metrics are more predictive of errors on unambiguous instances than on questions with multiple plausible answers. We use Gated Experts and Selective Prediction to incorporate gold and predicted ambiguity labels into the error prediction pipeline. We find that ambiguity information improves error prediction scores across model families, training and evaluation paradigms, datasets (including allegedly unambiguous ones), and sources of aleatoric uncertainty, yielding improvements of over 10 points of PRR for individual UQ metrics on standard datasets.

As the usage of large language models (LLMs) grows, performing efficient inference with these models becomes increasingly important. While speculative decoding has recently emerged as a promising direction for speeding up inference, existing methods are limited in their ability to scale to larger speculation budgets, and adapt to different hyperparameters and hardware. This paper introduces Sequoia, a scalable, robust, and hardware-aware algorithm for speculative decoding. To attain better scalability, Sequoia introduces a dynamic programming algorithm to find the optimal tree structure for the speculated tokens. To achieve robust speculative performance, Sequoia uses a novel sampling and verification method that outperforms prior work across different decoding temperatures. Finally, Sequoia introduces a hardware-aware tree optimizer that maximizes speculative performance by automatically selecting the token tree size and depth for a given hardware platform. Evaluation shows that Sequoia improves the decoding speed of Llama2-7B, Llama2-13B, and Vicuna-33B on an A100 by up to 4.04times, 3.84times, and 2.37times, and Llama2-70B offloading by up to 10.33times on L40.

Uncertainty estimation is essential not only for the trustworthy deployment of large language models (LLMs) but also as a foundation for self-refinement in LLM generation. However, existing approaches operate at suboptimal granularities: token-level scores lack semantic coherence, while sequence-level scores fail to localize errors. We formalize Span-Level Uncertainty Estimation (SLUE), a new task that targets the natural granularity for uncertainty: semantically coherent text spans, each conveying a single assessable unit of meaning. To address this task, we introduce SPANUQ, a lightweight probe that distills the uncertainty knowledge from expensive multi-sample inference into a single forward pass over LLM hidden states. SPANUQ employs a DETR-style span decoder to simultaneously detect spans and estimate their uncertainty via a Mixture of Beta distribution, trained with a principled combination of Beta NLL regression and contrastive ranking objectives. We construct SPANUQ-BENCH, the first span-level uncertainty benchmark comprising 20K prompts, 293K annotated spans, and continuous soft labels derived from multi-sample claim verification. Experiments on five LLM backbones show that SPANUQ consistently achieves the best span-level uncertainty quality, outperforming the strongest probe baseline and all sampling-based methods while being 10-20x faster. Its DETR-based span detector attains 0.910 F1, surpassing the best heuristic by 39.4%, enabling precise error localization that sequence-level methods cannot provide. The framework generalizes across five LLMs spanning two model families.

While Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive capabilities, they still struggle with generating factually incorrect content (i.e., hallucinations). A promising approach to mitigate this issue is enabling models to express uncertainty when unsure. Previous research on uncertainty modeling has primarily focused on short-form QA, but realworld applications often require much longer responses. In this work, we introduce the task of Long-form Generation with Uncertainty(LoGU). We identify two key challenges: Uncertainty Suppression, where models hesitate to express uncertainty, and Uncertainty Misalignment, where models convey uncertainty inaccurately. To tackle these challenges, we propose a refinement-based data collection framework and a two-stage training pipeline. Our framework adopts a divide-and-conquer strategy, refining uncertainty based on atomic claims. The collected data are then used in training through supervised fine-tuning (SFT) and direct preference optimization (DPO) to enhance uncertainty expression. Extensive experiments on three long-form instruction following datasets show that our method significantly improves accuracy, reduces hallucinations, and maintains the comprehensiveness of responses.

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) demonstrate remarkable capabilities in multimodal tasks but are prone to misinterpreting visual inputs, often resulting in hallucinations and unreliable outputs. To address these challenges, we propose Dropout Decoding, a novel inference-time approach that quantifies the uncertainty of visual tokens and selectively masks uncertain tokens to improve decoding. Our method measures the uncertainty of each visual token by projecting it onto the text space and decomposing it into aleatoric and epistemic components. Specifically, we focus on epistemic uncertainty, which captures perception-related errors more effectively. Inspired by dropout regularization, we introduce uncertainty-guided token dropout, which applies the dropout principle to input visual tokens instead of model parameters, and during inference rather than training. By aggregating predictions from an ensemble of masked decoding contexts, Dropout Decoding robustly mitigates errors arising from visual token misinterpretations. Evaluations on benchmarks including CHAIR, THRONE, and MMBench demonstrate that Dropout Decoding significantly reduces object hallucinations (OH) and enhances both reliability and quality of LVLM outputs across diverse visual contexts.

Large language models (LLMs) have transformed natural language processing, but their reliable deployment requires effective uncertainty quantification (UQ). Existing UQ methods are often heuristic and lack a probabilistic foundation. This paper begins by providing a theoretical justification for the role of perturbations in UQ for LLMs. We then introduce a dual random walk perspective, modeling input-output pairs as two Markov chains with transition probabilities defined by semantic similarity. Building on this, we propose a fully probabilistic framework based on an inverse model, which quantifies uncertainty by evaluating the diversity of the input space conditioned on a given output through systematic perturbations. Within this framework, we define a new uncertainty measure, Inv-Entropy. A key strength of our framework is its flexibility: it supports various definitions of uncertainty measures, embeddings, perturbation strategies, and similarity metrics. We also propose GAAP, a perturbation algorithm based on genetic algorithms, which enhances the diversity of sampled inputs. In addition, we introduce a new evaluation metric, Temperature Sensitivity of Uncertainty (TSU), which directly assesses uncertainty without relying on correctness as a proxy. Extensive experiments demonstrate that Inv-Entropy outperforms existing semantic UQ methods. The code to reproduce the results can be found at https://github.com/UMDataScienceLab/Uncertainty-Quantification-for-LLMs.

In this work, we explore uncertainty estimation as a proxy for correctness in LLM-generated code. To this end, we adapt two state-of-the-art techniques from natural language generation -- one based on entropy and another on mutual information -- to the domain of code generation. Given the distinct semantic properties of code, we introduce modifications, including a semantic equivalence check based on symbolic execution. Our findings indicate a strong correlation between the uncertainty computed through these techniques and correctness, highlighting the potential of uncertainty estimation for quality assessment. Additionally, we propose a simplified version of the entropy-based method that assumes a uniform distribution over the LLM's responses, demonstrating comparable effectiveness. Using these techniques, we develop an abstention policy that prevents the model from making predictions when uncertainty is high, reducing incorrect outputs to near zero. Our evaluation on the LiveCodeBench shows that our approach significantly outperforms a baseline relying solely on LLM-reported log-probabilities.

As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly integrated into high-stakes decision-making, the ability to reliably quantify uncertainty has become a critical requirement for safety and trust. However, current uncertainty quantification methods primarily operate at the output level, often failing to distinguish whether uncertainty arises from the model's lack of knowledge or from ambiguity in the user's input. While input-centric uncertainty quantification has recently emerged as a promising direction, it remains relatively underexplored and typically relies on coarse, input-level information. Consequently, users are provided with scalar uncertainty scores that offer little actionable guidance on which parts of the input should be clarified to improve reliability. To address this limitation, we propose Shapley-based input uncertainty Quantification (ShaQ), a framework for span-level attribution of input-induced uncertainty. Our approach models ambiguous spans in the input as players in a cooperative game and quantifies their contributions using Shapley values, defined via the weighted average of marginal reductions in conditional entropy obtained by clarifying each span coalition. Unlike existing input-level approaches, our formulation captures complex interactions among spans and provides a principled decomposition in which individual attributions sum exactly to the total input-induced uncertainty. We evaluate ShaQ on the AmbigQA and AmbiEnt benchmarks, where it achieves state-of-the-art performance in ambiguity detection. We further demonstrate its utility on MediTOD, showing that ShaQ can localize under-specified clinical utterances and facilitate human-AI collaboration in high-stakes settings. Overall, ShaQ improves uncertainty estimation and provides actionable insights for targeted input clarification.

Representation learning has significantly driven the field to develop pretrained models that can act as a valuable starting point when transferring to new datasets. With the rising demand for reliable machine learning and uncertainty quantification, there is a need for pretrained models that not only provide embeddings but also transferable uncertainty estimates. To guide the development of such models, we propose the Uncertainty-aware Representation Learning (URL) benchmark. Besides the transferability of the representations, it also measures the zero-shot transferability of the uncertainty estimate using a novel metric. We apply URL to evaluate eleven uncertainty quantifiers that are pretrained on ImageNet and transferred to eight downstream datasets. We find that approaches that focus on the uncertainty of the representation itself or estimate the prediction risk directly outperform those that are based on the probabilities of upstream classes. Yet, achieving transferable uncertainty quantification remains an open challenge. Our findings indicate that it is not necessarily in conflict with traditional representation learning goals. Code is provided under https://github.com/mkirchhof/url .

Text embeddings are essential components in modern NLP pipelines. While numerous embedding models have been proposed, their performance varies across domains. This variability motivates the use of ensemble techniques to combine complementary strengths. However, most existing ensemble methods operate on deterministic embeddings and fail to account for model-specific uncertainty, limiting their robustness and reliability in downstream applications. To address these limitations, we propose Uncertainty-driven Embedding Convolution (UEC). UEC first transforms deterministic embeddings into probabilistic ones in a post-hoc manner. It then computes adaptive ensemble weights based on embedding uncertainty, grounded in a Bayes-optimal solution under a surrogate loss. Additionally, UEC employs an uncertainty-aware similarity function that directly incorporates uncertainty into the similarity scoring, providing a theoretically grounded and efficient surrogate to distributional distances. Extensive experiments on diverse benchmarks demonstrate that UEC consistently improves both performance and robustness by leveraging principled uncertainty modeling.

Hallucination in large language models (LLMs) can be detected by assessing the uncertainty of model outputs, typically measured using entropy. Semantic entropy (SE) enhances traditional entropy estimation by quantifying uncertainty at the semantic cluster level. However, as modern LLMs generate longer one-sentence responses, SE becomes less effective because it overlooks two crucial factors: intra-cluster similarity (the spread within a cluster) and inter-cluster similarity (the distance between clusters). To address these limitations, we propose a simple black-box uncertainty quantification method inspired by nearest neighbor estimates of entropy. Our approach can also be easily extended to white-box settings by incorporating token probabilities. Additionally, we provide theoretical results showing that our method generalizes semantic entropy. Extensive empirical results demonstrate its effectiveness compared to semantic entropy across two recent LLMs (Phi3 and Llama3) and three common text generation tasks: question answering, text summarization, and machine translation. Our code is available at https://github.com/BigML-CS-UCLA/SNNE.

Efficient inference in large language models (LLMs) has become a critical focus as their scale and complexity grow. Traditional autoregressive decoding, while effective, suffers from computational inefficiencies due to its sequential token generation process. Speculative decoding addresses this bottleneck by introducing a two-stage framework: drafting and verification. A smaller, efficient model generates a preliminary draft, which is then refined by a larger, more sophisticated model. This paper provides a comprehensive survey of speculative decoding methods, categorizing them into draft-centric and model-centric approaches. We discuss key ideas associated with each method, highlighting their potential for scaling LLM inference. This survey aims to guide future research in optimizing speculative decoding and its integration into real-world LLM applications.

We present Δ-UQ -- a novel, general-purpose uncertainty estimator using the concept of anchoring in predictive models. Anchoring works by first transforming the input into a tuple consisting of an anchor point drawn from a prior distribution, and a combination of the input sample with the anchor using a pretext encoding scheme. This encoding is such that the original input can be perfectly recovered from the tuple -- regardless of the choice of the anchor. Therefore, any predictive model should be able to predict the target response from the tuple alone (since it implicitly represents the input). Moreover, by varying the anchors for a fixed sample, we can estimate uncertainty in the prediction even using only a single predictive model. We find this uncertainty is deeply connected to improper sampling of the input data, and inherent noise, enabling us to estimate the total uncertainty in any system. With extensive empirical studies on a variety of use-cases, we demonstrate that Δ-UQ outperforms several competitive baselines. Specifically, we study model fitting, sequential model optimization, model based inversion in the regression setting and out of distribution detection, & calibration under distribution shifts for classification.

To mitigate the high inference latency stemming from autoregressive decoding in Large Language Models (LLMs), Speculative Decoding has emerged as a novel decoding paradigm for LLM inference. In each decoding step, this method first efficiently drafts several future tokens and then verifies them in parallel. Unlike autoregressive decoding, Speculative Decoding facilitates the simultaneous decoding of multiple tokens per step, thereby accelerating inference. This paper presents a comprehensive overview and analysis of this promising decoding paradigm. We begin by providing a formal definition and formulation of Speculative Decoding. Then, we organize in-depth discussions on its key facets, including current leading techniques, the challenges faced, and potential future directions in this field. We aim for this work to serve as a catalyst for further research on Speculative Decoding, ultimately contributing to more efficient LLM inference.

We propose a stronger formulation of RL on top of RWKV-style recurrent sequence models, in which the fixed-size recurrent state is explicitly interpreted as a belief state rather than an opaque hidden vector. Instead of conditioning policy and value on a single summary h_t, we maintain a compact uncertainty-aware state b_t = (μ_t, Σ_t) derived from RWKV-style recurrent statistics and let control depend on both memory and uncertainty. This design targets a key weakness of plain fixed-state policies in partially observed settings: they may store evidence, but not necessarily confidence. We present the method, a theoretical program, and a pilot RL experiment with hidden episode-level observation noise together with a test-time noise sweep. The pilot shows that belief-state policies nearly match the best recurrent baseline overall while slightly improving return on the hardest in-distribution regime and under a held-out noise shift. Additional ablations show that this simple belief readout is currently stronger than two more structured extensions, namely gated memory control and privileged belief targets, underscoring the need for richer benchmarks.

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly employed in real-world applications, driving the need to evaluate the trustworthiness of their generated text. To this end, reliable uncertainty estimation is essential. Since current LLMs generate text autoregressively through a stochastic process, the same prompt can lead to varying outputs. Consequently, leading uncertainty estimation methods generate and analyze multiple output sequences to determine the LLM's uncertainty. However, generating output sequences is computationally expensive, making these methods impractical at scale. In this work, we inspect the theoretical foundations of the leading methods and explore new directions to enhance their computational efficiency. Building on the framework of proper scoring rules, we find that the negative log-likelihood of the most likely output sequence constitutes a theoretically grounded uncertainty measure. To approximate this alternative measure, we propose G-NLL, which has the advantage of being obtained using only a single output sequence generated by greedy decoding. This makes uncertainty estimation more efficient and straightforward, while preserving theoretical rigor. Empirical results demonstrate that G-NLL achieves state-of-the-art performance across various LLMs and tasks. Our work lays the foundation for efficient and reliable uncertainty estimation in natural language generation, challenging the necessity of more computationally involved methods currently leading the field.

Neural NLP models are often miscalibrated, assigning high confidence to incorrect predictions, which undermines selective prediction and high-stakes deployment. Post-hoc calibration methods adjust output probabilities but leave internal computation unchanged, while ensemble and Bayesian approaches improve uncertainty at substantial training or storage cost. We propose UAT-LITE, an inference-time framework that makes self-attention uncertainty-aware using approximate Bayesian inference via Monte Carlo dropout in pretrained transformer classifiers. Token-level epistemic uncertainty is estimated from stochastic forward passes and used to modulate self-attention during contextualization, without modifying pretrained weights or training objectives. We additionally introduce a layerwise variance decomposition to diagnose how predictive uncertainty accumulates across transformer depth. Across the SQuAD 2.0 answerability, MNLI, and SST-2, UAT-LITE reduces Expected Calibration Error by approximately 20% on average relative to a fine-tuned BERT-base baseline while preserving task accuracy, and improves selective prediction and robustness under distribution shift.

Speaker embeddings aggregate frame-level acoustic features into compact representations for speaker recognition. Recent uncertainty-aware speaker modeling approaches further characterize the reliability of speaker embeddings by estimating their associated uncertainty. However, existing methods often suffer from inaccurate uncertainty estimation and uncertainty miscalibration under domain shifts. To address these challenges, we propose a robust uncertainty modeling framework from both estimation and adaptation perspectives. Specifically, we introduce an Inter- and Intra-Speaker-Aware Uncertainty Softmax that incorporates both inter-speaker separability and intra-speaker variability into uncertainty learning, enabling uncertainty estimates to better capture the reliability of speaker embeddings. Furthermore, we propose an Uncertainty-Calibrated Domain Adaptation (UCDA) framework to mitigate uncertainty miscalibration caused by domain mismatch. Extensive experiments on both in-domain and cross-domain benchmarks demonstrate that the proposed approach consistently improves uncertainty reliability and speaker recognition robustness.

Several neural-based metrics have been recently proposed to evaluate machine translation quality. However, all of them resort to point estimates, which provide limited information at segment level. This is made worse as they are trained on noisy, biased and scarce human judgements, often resulting in unreliable quality predictions. In this paper, we introduce uncertainty-aware MT evaluation and analyze the trustworthiness of the predicted quality. We combine the COMET framework with two uncertainty estimation methods, Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensembles, to obtain quality scores along with confidence intervals. We compare the performance of our uncertainty-aware MT evaluation methods across multiple language pairs from the QT21 dataset and the WMT20 metrics task, augmented with MQM annotations. We experiment with varying numbers of references and further discuss the usefulness of uncertainty-aware quality estimation (without references) to flag possibly critical translation mistakes.

We propose semantic entropy probes (SEPs), a cheap and reliable method for uncertainty quantification in Large Language Models (LLMs). Hallucinations, which are plausible-sounding but factually incorrect and arbitrary model generations, present a major challenge to the practical adoption of LLMs. Recent work by Farquhar et al. (2024) proposes semantic entropy (SE), which can detect hallucinations by estimating uncertainty in the space semantic meaning for a set of model generations. However, the 5-to-10-fold increase in computation cost associated with SE computation hinders practical adoption. To address this, we propose SEPs, which directly approximate SE from the hidden states of a single generation. SEPs are simple to train and do not require sampling multiple model generations at test time, reducing the overhead of semantic uncertainty quantification to almost zero. We show that SEPs retain high performance for hallucination detection and generalize better to out-of-distribution data than previous probing methods that directly predict model accuracy. Our results across models and tasks suggest that model hidden states capture SE, and our ablation studies give further insights into the token positions and model layers for which this is the case.

Large language models (LLMs) have revolutionized the field of natural language processing with their impressive reasoning and question-answering capabilities. However, these models are sometimes prone to generating credible-sounding but incorrect information, a phenomenon known as LLM hallucinations. Reliable uncertainty estimation in LLMs is essential for fostering trust in their generated responses and serves as a critical tool for the detection and prevention of erroneous or hallucinated outputs. To achieve reliable and well-calibrated uncertainty quantification in open-ended and free-form natural language generation, we propose an uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach for LLMs. This approach enhances the model's ability to provide reliable uncertainty estimates without compromising accuracy, thereby guiding them to produce more trustworthy responses. We introduce a novel uncertainty-aware causal language modeling loss function, grounded in the principles of decision theory. Through rigorous evaluation on multiple free-form question-answering datasets and models, we demonstrate that our uncertainty-aware fine-tuning approach yields better calibrated uncertainty estimates in natural language generation tasks than fine-tuning with the standard causal language modeling loss. Furthermore, the experimental results show that the proposed method significantly improves the model's ability to detect hallucinations and identify out-of-domain prompts.

Speculative decoding (SD) addresses the high inference costs of LLMs by having lightweight drafters generate candidates for large verifiers to validate in parallel. Existing draft-verify methods use binary decisions: accept or fully recompute. Yet we find that many rejected tokens can be verified correctly by a slim submodel derived from the full verifier via intra-model routing, instead of the full verifier. This motivates our slim-verifier to handle tokens requiring moderate verification resources, reducing expensive large-model calls. We propose Verification via Intra-Model Routing for Speculative Decoding (VIA-SD), a multi-tier framework using a routed slim-verifier. Draft tokens are processed hierarchically: direct acceptance for high-confidence cases, slim-verifier regeneration for medium-confidence cases, and full-model verification for uncertain cases. Across four representative tasks and multiple model families, VIA-SD reduces rejection rates by 0.10-0.22 and delivers 10-20% speedups over strong SD baselines, while achieving 2.5-3x acceleration over non-drafting decoding. Moreover, VIA-SD is compatible with existing SD frameworks without modifying their training procedures. Our results suggest multi-tier SD as a general paradigm for scalable and efficient LLM inference. Project page: https://zju-xyc.github.io/VIA-SD-Project-Page/

Recent studies have successfully shown that large language models (LLMs) can be successfully used for generative error correction (GER) on top of the automatic speech recognition (ASR) output. Specifically, an LLM is utilized to carry out a direct mapping from the N-best hypotheses list generated by an ASR system to the predicted output transcription. However, despite its effectiveness, GER introduces extra data uncertainty since the LLM is trained without taking into account acoustic information available in the speech signal. In this work, we aim to overcome such a limitation by infusing acoustic information before generating the predicted transcription through a novel late fusion solution termed Uncertainty-Aware Dynamic Fusion (UADF). UADF is a multimodal fusion approach implemented into an auto-regressive decoding process and works in two stages: (i) It first analyzes and calibrates the token-level LLM decision, and (ii) it then dynamically assimilates the information from the acoustic modality. Experimental evidence collected from various ASR tasks shows that UADF surpasses existing fusion mechanisms in several ways. It yields significant improvements in word error rate (WER) while mitigating data uncertainty issues in LLM and addressing the poor generalization relied with sole modality during fusion. We also demonstrate that UADF seamlessly adapts to audio-visual speech recognition.

Efficiency, as a critical practical challenge for LLM-driven agentic and reasoning systems, is increasingly constrained by the inherent latency of autoregressive (AR) decoding. Speculative decoding mitigates this cost through a draft-verify scheme, yet existing approaches rely on AR draft models (a.k.a., drafters), which introduce two fundamental issues: (1) step-wise uncertainty accumulation leads to a progressive collapse of trust between the target model and the drafter, and (2) inherently sequential decoding of AR drafters. Together, these factors cause limited speedups. In this paper, we show that a diffusion large language model (dLLM) drafters can naturally overcome these issues through its fundamentally different probabilistic modeling and efficient parallel decoding strategy. Building on this insight, we introduce DEER, an efficient speculative decoding framework that drafts with diffusion and verifies with AR models. To enable high-quality drafting, DEER employs a two-stage training pipeline to align the dLLM-based drafters with the target AR model, and further adopts single-step decoding to generate long draft segments. Experiments show DEER reaches draft acceptance lengths of up to 32 tokens, far surpassing the 10 tokens achieved by EAGLE-3. Moreover, on HumanEval with Qwen3-30B-A3B, DEER attains a 5.54x speedup, while EAGLE-3 achieves only 2.41x. Code, model, demo, etc, will be available at https://czc726.github.io/DEER/

Hallucinations in Large Language Model (LLM) outputs for Question Answering (QA) tasks can critically undermine their real-world reliability. This paper introduces a methodology for robust, one-shot hallucination detection, specifically designed for scenarios with limited data access, such as interacting with black-box LLM APIs that typically expose only a few top candidate log-probabilities per token. Our approach derives uncertainty indicators directly from these readily available log-probabilities generated during non-greedy decoding. We first derive an Entropy Production Rate (EPR) that offers baseline performance, later augmented with supervised learning. Our learned model leverages the entropic contributions of the accessible top-ranked tokens within a single generated sequence, without multiple re-runs per query. Evaluated across diverse QA datasets and multiple LLMs, this estimator significantly improves token-level hallucination detection over state-of-the-art methods. Crucially, high performance is demonstrated using only the typically small set of available log-probabilities (e.g., top-10 per token), confirming its practical efficiency and suitability for API-constrained deployments. This work provides a lightweight technique to enhance the trustworthiness of LLM responses, at the token level, after a single generation pass, for QA and Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems. Our experiments confirmed the performance of our method against existing approaches on public dataset as well as for a financial framework analyzing annual company reports.

Existing methods for uncertainty quantification incur massive memory and compute overhead, often requiring multiple models/inferences. Hence they are impractical on ultra-low-power KB-sized TinyML devices. To reduce overhead, prior works have proposed the use of early-exit networks as ensembles to quantify uncertainty in a single forward-pass. However, they still have a prohibitive cost for tinyML. To address these challenges, we propose QUTE, a novel resource-efficient early-exit-assisted ensemble architecture optimized for tinyML models. QUTE adds additional output blocks at the final exit of the base network and distills the knowledge of early-exits into these blocks to create a diverse and lightweight ensemble architecture. Our results show that QUTE outperforms popular prior works, and improves the quality of uncertainty estimates by 6% with 3.1x lower model size on average compared to the most relevant prior work. Furthermore, we demonstrate that QUTE is also effective in detecting co-variate shifted and out-of-distribution inputs, and shows competitive performance relative to G-ODIN, a state-of-the-art generalized OOD detector.

Multimodal semantic understanding often has to deal with uncertainty, which means the obtained messages tend to refer to multiple targets. Such uncertainty is problematic for our interpretation, including inter- and intra-modal uncertainty. Little effort has studied the modeling of this uncertainty, particularly in pre-training on unlabeled datasets and fine-tuning in task-specific downstream datasets. In this paper, we project the representations of all modalities as probabilistic distributions via a Probability Distribution Encoder (PDE) by utilizing sequence-level interactions. Compared to the existing deterministic methods, such uncertainty modeling can convey richer multimodal semantic information and more complex relationships. Furthermore, we integrate uncertainty modeling with popular pre-training frameworks and propose suitable pre-training tasks: Distribution-based Vision-Language Contrastive learning (D-VLC), Distribution-based Masked Language Modeling (D-MLM), and Distribution-based Image-Text Matching (D-ITM). The fine-tuned models are applied to challenging downstream tasks, including image-text retrieval, visual question answering, visual reasoning, and visual entailment, and achieve state-of-the-art results.

We introduce Reward-Guided Speculative Decoding (RSD), a novel framework aimed at improving the efficiency of inference in large language models (LLMs). RSD synergistically combines a lightweight draft model with a more powerful target model, incorporating a controlled bias to prioritize high-reward outputs, in contrast to existing speculative decoding methods that enforce strict unbiasedness. RSD employs a process reward model to evaluate intermediate decoding steps and dynamically decide whether to invoke the target model, optimizing the trade-off between computational cost and output quality. We theoretically demonstrate that a threshold-based mixture strategy achieves an optimal balance between resource utilization and performance. Extensive evaluations on challenging reasoning benchmarks, including Olympiad-level tasks, show that RSD delivers significant efficiency gains against decoding with the target model only (up to 4.4x fewer FLOPs), while achieving significant better accuracy than parallel decoding method on average (up to +3.5). These results highlight RSD as a robust and cost-effective approach for deploying LLMs in resource-intensive scenarios.

Vision-language models (VLMs), such as CLIP and SigLIP, have found remarkable success in classification, retrieval, and generative tasks. For this, VLMs deterministically map images and text descriptions to a joint latent space in which their similarity is assessed using the cosine similarity. However, a deterministic mapping of inputs fails to capture uncertainties over concepts arising from domain shifts when used in downstream tasks. In this work, we propose post-hoc uncertainty estimation in VLMs that does not require additional training. Our method leverages a Bayesian posterior approximation over the last layers in VLMs and analytically quantifies uncertainties over cosine similarities. We demonstrate its effectiveness for uncertainty quantification and support set selection in active learning. Compared to baselines, we obtain improved and well-calibrated predictive uncertainties, interpretable uncertainty estimates, and sample-efficient active learning. Our results show promise for safety-critical applications of large-scale models.

In supervised learning, understanding an input's proximity to the training data can help a model decide whether it has sufficient evidence for reaching a reliable prediction. While powerful probabilistic models such as Gaussian Processes naturally have this property, deep neural networks often lack it. In this paper, we introduce Distance Aware Bottleneck (DAB), i.e., a new method for enriching deep neural networks with this property. Building on prior information bottleneck approaches, our method learns a codebook that stores a compressed representation of all inputs seen during training. The distance of a new example from this codebook can serve as an uncertainty estimate for the example. The resulting model is simple to train and provides deterministic uncertainty estimates by a single forward pass. Finally, our method achieves better out-of-distribution (OOD) detection and misclassification prediction than prior methods, including expensive ensemble methods, deep kernel Gaussian Processes, and approaches based on the standard information bottleneck.

The rapid growth in the parameters of large language models (LLMs) has made inference latency a fundamental bottleneck, limiting broader application of LLMs. Speculative decoding represents a lossless approach to accelerate inference through a guess-and-verify paradigm, leveraging the parallel capabilities of modern hardware. Some speculative decoding methods rely on additional structures to guess draft tokens, such as small models or parameter-efficient architectures, which need extra training before use. Alternatively, retrieval-based train-free techniques build libraries from pre-existing corpora or by n-gram generation. However, they face challenges like large storage requirements, time-consuming retrieval, and limited adaptability. Observing that candidate tokens generated during the decoding process are likely to reoccur in future sequences, we propose Token Recycling. This approach stores candidate tokens in an adjacency matrix and employs a breadth-first search (BFS)-like algorithm on the matrix to construct a draft tree. The tree is then validated through tree attention. New candidate tokens from the decoding process are then used to update the matrix. Token Recycling requires \textless2MB of additional storage and achieves approximately 2x speedup across all sizes of LLMs. It significantly outperforms existing train-free methods by 30\% and even a training method by 25\%. It can be directly applied to any existing LLMs and tasks without the need for adaptation.

Speculative decoding is widely used in accelerating large language model (LLM) inference. In this work, we focus on the online draft model selection problem in speculative decoding. We design an algorithm that provably competes with the best draft model in hindsight for each query in terms of either the token acceptance probability or expected acceptance length. In particular, we show that we can accurately evaluate all draft models, instead of only the chosen model without incurring additional queries to the target model, which allows us to improve exponentially over the existing bandit-based approach as the number of draft models increases. Our approach is generically applicable with any speculative decoding methods (single draft, multi-drafts and draft-trees). Moreover, we design system-efficient versions of online learners and demonstrate that the overhead in computation and latency can be substantially reduced. We conduct extensive experiments on open-source LLMs and diverse datasets, demonstrating that our methods substantially outperform the state-of-the-art EAGLE3 and the BanditSpec baseline in a variety of domains where specialized domain-expert drafters are available, especially when long reasoning chains are required.

Speculative decoding emerges as a pivotal technique for enhancing the inference speed of Large Language Models (LLMs). Despite recent research aiming to improve prediction efficiency, multi-sample speculative decoding has been overlooked due to varying numbers of accepted tokens within a batch in the verification phase. Vanilla method adds padding tokens in order to ensure that the number of new tokens remains consistent across samples. However, this increases the computational and memory access overhead, thereby reducing the speedup ratio. We propose a novel method that can resolve the issue of inconsistent tokens accepted by different samples without necessitating an increase in memory or computing overhead. Furthermore, our proposed method can handle the situation where the prediction tokens of different samples are inconsistent without the need to add padding tokens. Sufficient experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method. Our code is available at https://github.com/niyunsheng/EMS-SD.

As large language models continue to be widely developed, robust uncertainty quantification techniques will become crucial for their safe deployment in high-stakes scenarios. In this work, we explore how conformal prediction can be used to provide uncertainty quantification in language models for the specific task of multiple-choice question-answering. We find that the uncertainty estimates from conformal prediction are tightly correlated with prediction accuracy. This observation can be useful for downstream applications such as selective classification and filtering out low-quality predictions. We also investigate the exchangeability assumption required by conformal prediction to out-of-subject questions, which may be a more realistic scenario for many practical applications. Our work contributes towards more trustworthy and reliable usage of large language models in safety-critical situations, where robust guarantees of error rate are required.

Minimum Bayes risk (MBR) decoding outputs the hypothesis with the highest expected utility over the model distribution for some utility function. It has been shown to improve accuracy over beam search in conditional language generation problems and especially neural machine translation, in both human and automatic evaluations. However, the standard sampling-based algorithm for MBR is substantially more computationally expensive than beam search, requiring a large number of samples as well as a quadratic number of calls to the utility function, limiting its applicability. We describe an algorithm for MBR which gradually grows the number of samples used to estimate the utility while pruning hypotheses that are unlikely to have the highest utility according to confidence estimates obtained with bootstrap sampling. Our method requires fewer samples and drastically reduces the number of calls to the utility function compared to standard MBR while being statistically indistinguishable in terms of accuracy. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in experiments on three language pairs, using chrF++ and COMET as utility/evaluation metrics.

Speculative decoding accelerates language model inference by using a fast drafter to propose candidate tokens that are then verified by a larger target model. Existing theory largely studies the stochastic, distribution-preserving setting, where the goal is to exactly sample from the target distribution. In contrast, many practical systems use greedy decoding, relaxed acceptance rules, or tree-based candidate sets, where success is governed by local ranking and threshold events rather than exact distributional equality. We develop a theory for these regimes. We identify that many common acceptance criteria have rejection regions that can be characterized as lower level sets of the target distribution. For these, we characterize the exact KL divergence required for rejection yielding exact certificates and sharp margin-based bounds for strict greedy decoding, additive and multiplicative relaxed acceptance, top-(m) relaxed criteria, and entropy-thresholded acceptance. We then extend the framework to greedy tree decoding, deriving exact and margin-only certificates for when the target greedy token remains covered by the drafter's top-(m) candidates. Finally, we evaluate the resulting certificates on Qwen3 models, showing that relaxed and tree-based criteria substantially enlarge the region of certified acceptance, especially on decoding steps with low target model distribution margin. These results complement existing distribution-preserving analyses of speculative decoding by characterizing the deterministic local acceptance events common in practical inference systems.

Large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed and democratized on edge devices. To improve the efficiency of on-device deployment, small language models (SLMs) are often adopted due to their efficient decoding latency and reduced energy consumption. However, these SLMs often generate inaccurate responses when handling complex queries. One promising solution is uncertainty-based SLM routing, offloading high-stakes queries to stronger LLMs when resulting in low-confidence responses on SLM. This follows the principle of "If you lack confidence, seek stronger support" to enhance reliability. Relying on more powerful LLMs is yet effective but increases invocation costs. Therefore, striking a routing balance between efficiency and efficacy remains a critical challenge. Additionally, efficiently generalizing the routing strategy to new datasets remains under-explored. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive investigation into benchmarking and generalization of uncertainty-driven routing strategies from SLMs to LLMs over 1500+ settings. Our findings highlight: First, uncertainty-correctness alignment in different uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods significantly impacts routing performance. Second, uncertainty distributions depend more on both the specific SLM and the chosen UQ method, rather than downstream data. Building on the insight, we propose a calibration data construction instruction pipeline and open-source a constructed hold-out set to enhance routing generalization on new downstream scenarios. The experimental results indicate calibration data effectively bootstraps routing performance without any new data.

Large reasoning models often reach correct answers through flawed intermediate steps, creating a gap between final accuracy and reasoning reliability. Existing alignment strategies address this with external verifiers or massive sampling, limiting scalability. In this work, we introduce CASPO (Confidence-Aware Step-wise Preference Optimization), a framework that aligns token-level confidence with step-wise logical correctness through iterative Direct Preference Optimization, without training a separate reward model. During inference, we propose Confidence-aware Thought (CaT), which leverages this calibrated confidence to dynamically prune uncertain reasoning branches with negligible O(V) latency. Experiments across ten benchmarks and multiple model families show that CASPO consistently improves reasoning reliability and inference efficiency. CASPO scales to Qwen3-8B-Base and surpasses tree-search baselines on AIME'24 and AIME'25 without using reward-model data. We also release a step-wise dataset with confidence annotations to support fine-grained analysis of reasoning reliability. Code is available at https://github.com/Thecommonirin/CASPO.

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across various tasks but still face challenges such as hallucinations. One potential reason for hallucinations is the lack of relevant knowledge or context. Thus, a promising solution to mitigate this issue involves instructing LLMs to respond with "I do not know" when a question falls outside their knowledge domain or the provided context. However, in this work, we observed that LLMs struggle to admit their lack of knowledge, primarily due to existing instruction datasets designed to encourage specific answers. To improve large language models' capability to recognize the boundaries of their knowledge, we propose a novel approach called uncertainty-sensitive tuning. This method involves two-stage training designed for uncertainty recognition and prompt-sensitive activation. In the first stage, we guide the LLM to reject unknown questions. In the second stage, we recover the decreased performance in QA tasks by incorporating designed causal instructions. By leveraging this method, we aim to enhance the model's ability to identify areas of uncertainty. The experimental results demonstrate that our proposed uncertainty-sensitive tuning method significantly improves the performance of the Llama2-chat-7B model. Specifically, it achieves a substantial 34.7% improvement in handling questions involving knowledge gaps compared to the original model. Moreover, our approach outperforms GPT-4, exhibiting a 9.4% increase in overall performance. We open-source the model and code on GitHub.

Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates large language model inference by using a smaller draft model to predict multiple tokens, which are then verified in parallel by the larger target model. However, the limited capacity of the draft model often necessitates tree-based sampling to improve prediction accuracy, where multiple candidates are generated at each step. We identify a key limitation in this approach: the candidates at the same step are derived from the same representation, limiting diversity and reducing overall effectiveness. To address this, we propose Jakiro, leveraging Mixture of Experts (MoE), where independent experts generate diverse predictions, effectively decoupling correlations among candidates. Furthermore, we introduce a hybrid inference strategy, combining autoregressive decoding for initial tokens with parallel decoding for subsequent stages, and enhance the latter with contrastive mechanism in features to improve accuracy. Our method significantly boosts prediction accuracy and achieves higher inference speedups. Extensive experiments across diverse models validate the effectiveness and robustness of our approach, establishing a new SOTA in speculative decoding. Our codes are available at https://github.com/haiduo/Jakiro.

Semi-supervised learning is attracting blooming attention, due to its success in combining unlabeled data. To mitigate potentially incorrect pseudo labels, recent frameworks mostly set a fixed confidence threshold to discard uncertain samples. This practice ensures high-quality pseudo labels, but incurs a relatively low utilization of the whole unlabeled set. In this work, our key insight is that these uncertain samples can be turned into certain ones, as long as the confusion classes for the top-1 class are detected and removed. Invoked by this, we propose a novel method dubbed ShrinkMatch to learn uncertain samples. For each uncertain sample, it adaptively seeks a shrunk class space, which merely contains the original top-1 class, as well as remaining less likely classes. Since the confusion ones are removed in this space, the re-calculated top-1 confidence can satisfy the pre-defined threshold. We then impose a consistency regularization between a pair of strongly and weakly augmented samples in the shrunk space to strive for discriminative representations. Furthermore, considering the varied reliability among uncertain samples and the gradually improved model during training, we correspondingly design two reweighting principles for our uncertain loss. Our method exhibits impressive performance on widely adopted benchmarks. Code is available at https://github.com/LiheYoung/ShrinkMatch.

A critical component of a successful language generation pipeline is the decoding algorithm. However, the general principles that should guide the choice of decoding algorithm remain unclear. Previous works only compare decoding algorithms in narrow scenarios and their findings do not generalize across tasks. To better structure the discussion, we introduce a taxonomy that groups decoding strategies based on their implicit assumptions about how well the model's likelihood is aligned with the task-specific notion of utility. We argue that this taxonomy allows a broader view of the decoding problem and can lead to generalizable statements because it is grounded on the interplay between the decoding algorithms and the likelihood-utility misalignment. Specifically, by analyzing the correlation between the likelihood and the utility of predictions across a diverse set of tasks, we provide the first empirical evidence supporting the proposed taxonomy, and a set of principles to structure reasoning when choosing a decoding algorithm. Crucially, our analysis is the first one to relate likelihood-based decoding strategies with strategies that rely on external information such as value-guided methods and prompting, and covers the most diverse set of tasks up-to-date.

Accurate weather forecasts are essential across various domains and are safety-critical in extreme weather conditions. Compared to simulation-based forecasting, data-driven approaches show greater efficiency, enabling short-term, high-resolution nowcasting. In particular, diffusion models proved effective in weather nowcasting due to their strong probabilistic foundation. However, existing methods rely on deterministic compression to reduce the complexity of high-dimensional weather data, limiting their ability to capture uncertainty in the decoding process. In this work, we introduce FREUD, a Frame-wise Encoder and United Decoder model based on rectified flow transformers for efficient compression of spatio-temporal weather data. Frame-wise encoding enables continuous forecast updates, while the unified video decoder ensures temporal consistency. Our uncertainty-preserving first stage allows us to capture aleatoric uncertainty via ensembling, which is particularly beneficial for extreme weather events with high decoding variability. We achieve state-of-the-art performance in precipitation nowcasting with a compact latent-space rectified flow transformer on the SEVIR benchmark and show further performance gains by model and test-time scaling. Code available here: https://github.com/CompVis/weather-rf

Recent advances with large language models (LLM) illustrate their diverse capabilities. We propose a novel algorithm, staged speculative decoding, to accelerate LLM inference in small-batch, on-device scenarios. We address the low arithmetic intensity of small-batch inference by improving upon previous work in speculative decoding. First, we restructure the speculative batch as a tree, which reduces generation costs and increases the expected tokens per batch. Second, we add a second stage of speculative decoding. Taken together, we reduce single-batch decoding latency by 3.16x with a 762M parameter GPT-2-L model while perfectly preserving output quality.

Uncertainty estimation is essential for enhancing the reliability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly in high-stakes applications. Existing methods often overlook semantic dependencies, relying on token-level probability measures that fail to capture structural relationships within the generated text. We propose GENUINE: Graph ENhanced mUlti-level uncertaINty Estimation for Large Language Models, a structure-aware framework that leverages dependency parse trees and hierarchical graph pooling to refine uncertainty quantification. By incorporating supervised learning, GENUINE effectively models semantic and structural relationships, improving confidence assessments. Extensive experiments across NLP tasks show that GENUINE achieves up to 29% higher AUROC than semantic entropy-based approaches and reduces calibration errors by over 15%, demonstrating the effectiveness of graph-based uncertainty modeling. The code is available at https://github.com/ODYSSEYWT/GUQ.

Decoding sits between a language model and everything we do with it, yet it is still treated as a heuristic knob-tuning exercise. We argue decoding should be understood as a principled optimisation layer: at each token, we solve a regularised problem over the probability simplex that trades off model score against structural preferences and constraints. This single template recovers greedy decoding, Softmax sampling, Top-K, Top-P, and Sparsemax-style sparsity as special cases, and explains their common structure through optimality conditions. More importantly, the framework makes it easy to invent new decoders without folklore. We demonstrate this by designing Best-of-K (BoK), a KL-anchored coverage objective aimed at multi-sample pipelines (self-consistency, reranking, verifier selection). BoK targets the probability of covering good alternatives within a fixed K-sample budget and improves empirical performance. We show that such samples can improve accuracy by, for example, +18.6% for Qwen2.5-Math-7B on MATH500 at high sampling temperatures.

Detection Transformer (DETR) and its variants show strong performance on object detection, a key task for autonomous systems. However, a critical limitation of these models is that their confidence scores only reflect semantic uncertainty, failing to capture the equally important spatial uncertainty. This results in an incomplete assessment of the detection reliability. On the other hand, Deep Ensembles can tackle this by providing high-quality spatial uncertainty estimates. However, their immense memory consumption makes them impractical for real-world applications. A cheaper alternative, Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, suffers from high latency due to the need of multiple forward passes during inference to estimate uncertainty. To address these limitations, we introduce GroupEnsemble, an efficient and effective uncertainty estimation method for DETR-like models. GroupEnsemble simultaneously predicts multiple individual detection sets by feeding additional diverse groups of object queries to the transformer decoder during inference. Each query group is transformed by the shared decoder in isolation and predicts a complete detection set for the same input. An attention mask is applied to the decoder to prevent inter-group query interactions, ensuring each group detects independently to achieve reliable ensemble-based uncertainty estimation. By leveraging the decoder's inherent parallelism, GroupEnsemble efficiently estimates uncertainty in a single forward pass without sequential repetition. We validated our method under autonomous driving scenes and common daily scenes using the Cityscapes and COCO datasets, respectively. The results show that a hybrid approach combining MC-Dropout and GroupEnsemble outperforms Deep Ensembles on several metrics at a fraction of the cost. The code is available at https://github.com/yutongy98/GroupEnsemble.

Growing demands from tasks like code generation, deep reasoning, and long-document understanding have made long-context generation a crucial capability for large language models (LLMs). Speculative decoding is one of the most direct and effective approaches for accelerating generation. It follows a draft-verify paradigm, where a lightweight draft model proposes several candidate tokens and the target model verifies them. However, we find that as the context length grows, verification becomes the dominant bottleneck. To further accelerate speculative decoding in long-context generation, we introduce SpecPV, a self-speculative decoding approach that performs fast verification using partial key-value states (KV) and periodically applies full verification to eliminate accumulated errors. We validate SpecPV across multiple long-context benchmarks and models, including LLaMA-3.1-8B-Instruct and Qwen3-series. Experimental results show that SpecPV achieves up to 6x decoding speedup over standard autoregressive decoding with minor degradation.

Estimating the uncertainty of responses of Large Language Models~(LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization~(TFB), a novel framework that transforms existing off-the-shelf trained LoRA adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFB systematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. We theoretically demonstrate that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to variational inference for the weights. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex training procedures. Code will be available at https://github.com/Wang-ML-Lab/bayesian-peft.

Recent advances in language models (LMs) have led to significant improvements in quality on complex NLP tasks, but at the expense of increased inference costs. Cascading offers a simple strategy to achieve more favorable cost-quality tradeoffs: here, a small model is invoked for most "easy" instances, while a few "hard" instances are deferred to the large model. While the principles underpinning cascading are well-studied for classification tasks - with deferral based on predicted class uncertainty favored theoretically and practically - a similar understanding is lacking for generative LM tasks. In this work, we initiate a systematic study of deferral rules for LM cascades. We begin by examining the natural extension of predicted class uncertainty to generative LM tasks, namely, the predicted sequence uncertainty. We show that this measure suffers from the length bias problem, either over- or under-emphasizing outputs based on their lengths. This is because LMs produce a sequence of uncertainty values, one for each output token; and moreover, the number of output tokens is variable across examples. To mitigate this issue, we propose to exploit the richer token-level uncertainty information implicit in generative LMs. We argue that naive predicted sequence uncertainty corresponds to a simple aggregation of these uncertainties. By contrast, we show that incorporating token-level uncertainty through learned post-hoc deferral rules can significantly outperform such simple aggregation strategies, via experiments on a range of natural language benchmarks with FLAN-T5 models. We further show that incorporating embeddings from the smaller model and intermediate layers of the larger model can give an additional boost in the overall cost-quality tradeoff.

Although large language models (LLMs) are capable of performing various tasks, they still suffer from producing plausible but incorrect responses. To improve the reliability of LLMs, recent research has focused on uncertainty quantification to predict whether a response is correct or not. However, most uncertainty quantification methods have been evaluated on questions requiring a single clear answer, ignoring the existence of data uncertainty that arises from irreducible randomness. Instead, these methods only consider model uncertainty, which arises from a lack of knowledge. In this paper, we investigate previous uncertainty quantification methods under the presence of data uncertainty. Our contributions are two-fold: 1) proposing a new Multi-Answer Question Answering dataset, MAQA, consisting of world knowledge, mathematical reasoning, and commonsense reasoning tasks to evaluate uncertainty quantification regarding data uncertainty, and 2) assessing 5 uncertainty quantification methods of diverse white- and black-box LLMs. Our findings show that entropy and consistency-based methods estimate the model uncertainty well even under data uncertainty, while other methods for white- and black-box LLMs struggle depending on the tasks. Additionally, methods designed for white-box LLMs suffer from overconfidence in reasoning tasks compared to simple knowledge queries. We believe our observations will pave the way for future work on uncertainty quantification in realistic setting.

The recent performance leap of Large Language Models (LLMs) opens up new opportunities across numerous industrial applications and domains. However, erroneous generations, such as false predictions, misinformation, and hallucination made by LLMs, have also raised severe concerns for the trustworthiness of LLMs', especially in safety-, security- and reliability-sensitive scenarios, potentially hindering real-world adoptions. While uncertainty estimation has shown its potential for interpreting the prediction risks made by general machine learning (ML) models, little is known about whether and to what extent it can help explore an LLM's capabilities and counteract its undesired behavior. To bridge the gap, in this paper, we initiate an exploratory study on the risk assessment of LLMs from the lens of uncertainty. In particular, we experiment with twelve uncertainty estimation methods and four LLMs on four prominent natural language processing (NLP) tasks to investigate to what extent uncertainty estimation techniques could help characterize the prediction risks of LLMs. Our findings validate the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation for revealing LLMs' uncertain/non-factual predictions. In addition to general NLP tasks, we extensively conduct experiments with four LLMs for code generation on two datasets. We find that uncertainty estimation can potentially uncover buggy programs generated by LLMs. Insights from our study shed light on future design and development for reliable LLMs, facilitating further research toward enhancing the trustworthiness of LLMs.

Speculative decoding (SD) has become a popular technique to accelerate Large Language Model (LLM) inference, yet its real-world effectiveness remains unclear as prior evaluations rely on research prototypes and unrealistically small batch sizes. We present, to our knowledge, the first systematic study of SD on a production-grade and widely deployed inference engine (vLLM), covering multiple SD variants (n-gram, EAGLE/EAGLE-3, Draft-Model, Multi-Token Prediction) across diverse workloads, model scales, and batch sizes. We analyze key factors governing SD performance, and quantify a theoretical upper bound on SD speedup. Our results show that verification by the target model dominates the execution, while acceptance length varies markedly across output token positions, requests, and datasets. Comparing measured performance with theoretical bounds reveals substantial gaps between observed and theoretical upper bounds, and we leverage this observation to highlight new research opportunities that our study opens up in improving SD.

Vision-language models (VLMs) frequently generate hallucinated content plausible but incorrect claims about image content. We propose a training-free self-correction framework enabling VLMs to iteratively refine responses through uncertainty-guided visual re-attention. Our method combines multidimensional uncertainty quantification (token entropy, attention dispersion, semantic consistency, claim confidence) with attention-guided cropping of under-explored regions. Operating entirely with frozen, pretrained VLMs, our framework requires no gradient updates. We validate our approach on the POPE and MMHAL BENCH benchmarks using the Qwen2.5-VL-7B [23] architecture. Experimental results demonstrate that our method reduces hallucination rates by 9.8 percentage points compared to the baseline, while improving object existence accuracy by 4.7 points on adversarial splits. Furthermore, qualitative analysis confirms that uncertainty-guided re-attention successfully grounds corrections in visual evidence where standard decoding fails. We validate our approach on Qwen2.5-VL-7B [23], with plans to extend validation across diverse architectures in future versions. We release our code and methodology to facilitate future research in trustworthy multimodal systems.

Retrieval-Augmented Generation equips large language models with the capability to retrieve external knowledge, thereby mitigating hallucinations by incorporating information beyond the model's intrinsic abilities. However, most prior works have focused on invoking retrieval deterministically, which makes it unsuitable for tasks such as long-form question answering. Instead, dynamically performing retrieval by invoking it only when the underlying LLM lacks the required knowledge can be more efficient. In this context, we delve deeper into the question, "To Retrieve or Not to Retrieve?" by exploring multiple uncertainty detection methods. We evaluate these methods for the task of long-form question answering, employing dynamic retrieval, and present our comparisons. Our findings suggest that uncertainty detection metrics, such as Degree Matrix Jaccard and Eccentricity, can reduce the number of retrieval calls by almost half, with only a slight reduction in question-answering accuracy.

High-quality calibrated uncertainty estimates are crucial for numerous real-world applications, especially for deep learning-based deployed ML systems. While Bayesian deep learning techniques allow uncertainty estimation, training them with large-scale datasets is an expensive process that does not always yield models competitive with non-Bayesian counterparts. Moreover, many of the high-performing deep learning models that are already trained and deployed are non-Bayesian in nature and do not provide uncertainty estimates. To address these issues, we propose BayesCap that learns a Bayesian identity mapping for the frozen model, allowing uncertainty estimation. BayesCap is a memory-efficient method that can be trained on a small fraction of the original dataset, enhancing pretrained non-Bayesian computer vision models by providing calibrated uncertainty estimates for the predictions without (i) hampering the performance of the model and (ii) the need for expensive retraining the model from scratch. The proposed method is agnostic to various architectures and tasks. We show the efficacy of our method on a wide variety of tasks with a diverse set of architectures, including image super-resolution, deblurring, inpainting, and crucial application such as medical image translation. Moreover, we apply the derived uncertainty estimates to detect out-of-distribution samples in critical scenarios like depth estimation in autonomous driving. Code is available at https://github.com/ExplainableML/BayesCap.

Large Language Models (LLMs) that can express interpretable and calibrated uncertainty are crucial in high-stakes domains. While methods to compute uncertainty post-hoc exist, they are often sampling-based and therefore computationally expensive or lack calibration. We propose a three-stage pipeline to post-train LLMs to efficiently infer calibrated uncertainty estimates for their responses. First, we compute fine-grained entropy-based uncertainty scores on the training data, capturing the distributional variability of model outputs in embedding space. Second, these scores are calibrated via Platt scaling, producing reliable and human-interpretable uncertainty signals. Finally, the target LLM is post-trained via reinforcement learning to align its policy with these calibrated signals through a verifiable reward function. Unlike post-hoc uncertainty estimation methods, our approach provides interpretable and computationally efficient uncertainty estimates at test time. Experiments show that models trained with our pipeline achieve better calibration than baselines and generalize to unseen tasks without further processing, suggesting that they learn a robust uncertainty reasoning behavior.

Predictions made by deep learning models are prone to data perturbations, adversarial attacks, and out-of-distribution inputs. To build a trusted AI system, it is therefore critical to accurately quantify the prediction uncertainties. While current efforts focus on improving uncertainty quantification accuracy and efficiency, there is a need to identify uncertainty sources and take actions to mitigate their effects on predictions. Therefore, we propose to develop explainable and actionable Bayesian deep learning methods to not only perform accurate uncertainty quantification but also explain the uncertainties, identify their sources, and propose strategies to mitigate the uncertainty impacts. Specifically, we introduce a gradient-based uncertainty attribution method to identify the most problematic regions of the input that contribute to the prediction uncertainty. Compared to existing methods, the proposed UA-Backprop has competitive accuracy, relaxed assumptions, and high efficiency. Moreover, we propose an uncertainty mitigation strategy that leverages the attribution results as attention to further improve the model performance. Both qualitative and quantitative evaluations are conducted to demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed methods.

Autoregressive decoding is bottlenecked by its sequential nature. Speculative decoding has become a standard way to accelerate inference by using a fast draft model to predict upcoming tokens from a slower target model, and then verifying them in parallel with a single target model forward pass. However, speculative decoding itself relies on a sequential dependence between speculation and verification. We introduce speculative speculative decoding (SSD) to parallelize these operations. While a verification is ongoing, the draft model predicts likely verification outcomes and prepares speculations pre-emptively for them. If the actual verification outcome is then in the predicted set, a speculation can be returned immediately, eliminating drafting overhead entirely. We identify three key challenges presented by speculative speculative decoding, and suggest principled methods to solve each. The result is Saguaro, an optimized SSD algorithm. Our implementation is up to 2x faster than optimized speculative decoding baselines and up to 5x faster than autoregressive decoding with open source inference engines.

Verification is a key bottleneck in improving inference speed while maintaining distribution fidelity in Speculative Decoding. Recent work has shown that sequence-level verification leads to a higher number of accepted tokens compared to token-wise verification. However, existing solutions often rely on surrogate approximations or are constrained by partial information, struggling with joint intractability. In this work, we propose Hierarchical Speculative Decoding (HSD), a provably lossless verification method that significantly boosts the expected number of accepted tokens and overcomes joint intractability by balancing excess and deficient probability mass across accessible branches. Our extensive large-scale experiments demonstrate that HSD yields consistent improvements in acceptance rates across diverse model families and benchmarks. Moreover, its strong explainability and generality make it readily integrable into a wide range of speculative decoding frameworks. Notably, integrating HSD into EAGLE-3 yields over a 12% performance gain, establishing state-of-the-art decoding efficiency without compromising distribution fidelity. Code is available at https://github.com/ZhouYuxuanYX/Hierarchical-Speculative-Decoding.

Large language models (LLMs) now exhibit strong multi-step reasoning abilities, but existing inference-time scaling methods remain computationally expensive, often relying on extensive sampling or external evaluators. We propose a principled strategy that frames reasoning as uncertainty minimisation and operates at the level of individual thoughts rather than tokens. Our method selects, at each reasoning step, the continuation that maximizes the model's self-certainty, a metric computed from its internal predictive distribution. This approach achieves significant improvement with a small number of samples, relies exclusively on model-internal signals, and applies to open-ended questions as opposed to methods like majority voting. Experiments on MATH500 and GSM8K across multiple model sizes demonstrate that thought-level self-certainty maximization consistently outperforms greedy decoding and matches or exceeds self-consistency under comparable token budgets. Cross-linguistic evaluations further indicate that the method transfers robustly beyond high-resource languages. Furthermore, analysis of self-certainty dynamics reveals that correct reasoning trajectories converge early to stable paths, suggesting that early decisions, likely associated with the planning of the reasoning process, are predictive of final accuracy. Building on this result, we show that self-certainty maximisation applied to the early steps can explain most of the performance gain and provide a simple yet efficient inference-time scaling method.

Speculative decoding accelerates Large Language Models (LLMs) inference by using a lightweight draft model to propose candidate tokens that are verified in parallel by the target model. However, existing draft model training objectives are not directly aligned with the inference-time goal of maximizing consecutive token acceptance. To address this issue, we reformulate the draft model optimization objective, shifting the focus from token prediction accuracy to the overall acceptance length. In this paper, we build upon PARD to propose PARD-2, a dual-mode speculative decoding framework with Confidence-Adaptive Token (CAT) optimization. This approach adaptively reweights each token to better align with the verification process. Notably, PARD-2 enables a single draft model to support both target-dependent and target-independent modes. Experiments across diverse models and tasks demonstrate that PARD-2 achieves up to 6.94times lossless acceleration, surpassing EAGLE-3 by 1.9times and PARD by 1.3times on Llama3.1-8B. Our code is available at https://github.com/AMD-AGI/PARD.

Speculative decoding is a promising method for reducing the inference latency of large language models. The effectiveness of the method depends on the speculation length (SL) - the number of tokens generated by the draft model at each iteration. The vast majority of speculative decoding approaches use the same SL for all iterations. In this work, we show that this practice is suboptimal. We introduce DISCO, a DynamIc SpeCulation length Optimization method that uses a classifier to dynamically adjust the SL at each iteration, while provably preserving the decoding quality. Experiments with four benchmarks demonstrate average speedup gains of 10.3% relative to our best baselines.

LLM agents extend large language models with tool-calling capabilities, but ambiguous user instructions often lead to incorrect invocations and task failures. We introduce a principled formulation of structured uncertainty over tool-call parameters, modeling joint tool-argument clarification as a POMDP with Expected Value of Perfect Information (EVPI) objective for optimal question selection and aspect-based cost modeling to prevent redundancy. Our SAGE-Agent leverages this structured uncertainty to achieve superior efficiency: increasing coverage on ambiguous tasks by 7-39\% while reducing clarification questions by 1.5-2.7times compared to strong prompting and uncertainty-based baselines. We present ClarifyBench, the first multi-turn tool-augmented disambiguation benchmark with realistic LLM-based user simulation across diverse domains including document editing, vehicle control, and travel booking. Additionally, we demonstrate that structured uncertainty provides effective training signals for reinforcement learning, boosting When2Call accuracy from 36.5\% to 65.2\% (3B model) and 36.7\% to 62.9\% (7B model) through uncertainty-weighted GRPO training. These results establish structured uncertainty as a principled, efficient approach for tool-augmented agents, improving both task success and interaction efficiency in real-world scenarios.

Multimodal large language models (MLLMs) have recently achieved state-of-the-art performance on tasks ranging from visual question answering to video understanding. However, existing studies have concentrated mainly on visual-textual misalignment, leaving largely unexplored the MLLMs' ability to preserve an originally correct answer when confronted with misleading information. We reveal a response uncertainty phenomenon: across nine standard datasets, twelve state-of-the-art open-source MLLMs overturn a previously correct answer in 65% of cases after receiving a single deceptive cue. To systematically quantify this vulnerability, we propose a two-stage evaluation pipeline: (1) elicit each model's original response on unperturbed inputs; (2) inject explicit (false-answer hints) and implicit (contextual contradictions) misleading instructions, and compute the misleading rate - the fraction of correct-to-incorrect flips. Leveraging the most susceptible examples, we curate the Multimodal Uncertainty Benchmark (MUB), a collection of image-question pairs stratified into low, medium, and high difficulty based on how many of twelve state-of-the-art MLLMs they mislead. Extensive evaluation on twelve open-source and five closed-source models reveals a high uncertainty: average misleading rates exceed 86%, with explicit cues over 67.19% and implicit cues over 80.67%. To reduce the misleading rate, we then fine-tune all open-source MLLMs on a compact 2000-sample mixed-instruction dataset, reducing misleading rates to 6.97% (explicit) and 32.77% (implicit), boosting consistency by nearly 29.37% on highly deceptive inputs, and slightly improving accuracy on standard benchmarks. Our code is available at https://github.com/Yunkaidang/uncertainty

Generative video models demonstrate impressive text-to-video capabilities, spurring widespread adoption in many real-world applications. However, like large language models (LLMs), video generation models tend to hallucinate, producing plausible videos even when they are factually wrong. Although uncertainty quantification (UQ) of LLMs has been extensively studied in prior work, no UQ method for video models exists, raising critical safety concerns. To our knowledge, this paper represents the first work towards quantifying the uncertainty of video models. We present a framework for uncertainty quantification of generative video models, consisting of: (i) a metric for evaluating the calibration of video models based on robust rank correlation estimation with no stringent modeling assumptions; (ii) a black-box UQ method for video models (termed S-QUBED), which leverages latent modeling to rigorously decompose predictive uncertainty into its aleatoric and epistemic components; and (iii) a UQ dataset to facilitate benchmarking calibration in video models. By conditioning the generation task in the latent space, we disentangle uncertainty arising due to vague task specifications from that arising from lack of knowledge. Through extensive experiments on benchmark video datasets, we demonstrate that S-QUBED computes calibrated total uncertainty estimates that are negatively correlated with the task accuracy and effectively computes the aleatoric and epistemic constituents.

Language models have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in reasoning tasks through test-time scaling techniques like best-of-N sampling and tree search. However, these approaches often demand substantial computational resources, creating a critical trade-off between performance and efficiency. We introduce STAND (STochastic Adaptive N-gram Drafting), a novel model-free speculative decoding approach that leverages the inherent redundancy in reasoning trajectories to achieve significant acceleration without compromising accuracy. Our analysis reveals that reasoning paths frequently reuse similar reasoning patterns, enabling efficient model-free token prediction without requiring separate draft models. By introducing stochastic drafting and preserving probabilistic information through a memory-efficient logit-based N-gram module, combined with optimized Gumbel-Top-K sampling and data-driven tree construction, STAND significantly improves token acceptance rates. Extensive evaluations across multiple models and reasoning tasks (AIME-2024, GPQA-Diamond, and LiveCodeBench) demonstrate that STAND reduces inference latency by 60-65% compared to standard autoregressive decoding while maintaining accuracy. Furthermore, STAND outperforms state-of-the-art speculative decoding methods by 14-28% in throughput and shows strong performance even in single-trajectory scenarios, reducing inference latency by 48-58%. As a model-free approach, STAND can be applied to any existing language model without additional training, being a powerful plug-and-play solution for accelerating language model reasoning.

Accelerating the inference of large language models (LLMs) is a critical challenge in generative AI. Speculative decoding (SD) methods offer substantial efficiency gains by generating multiple tokens using a single target forward pass. However, existing SD approaches require the drafter and target models to share the same vocabulary, thus limiting the pool of possible drafters, often necessitating the training of a drafter from scratch. We present three new SD methods that remove this shared-vocabulary constraint. All three methods preserve the target distribution (i.e., they are lossless) and work with off-the-shelf models without requiring additional training or modifications. Empirically, on summarization, programming, and long-context tasks, our algorithms achieve significant speedups over standard autoregressive decoding. By enabling any off-the-shelf model to serve as drafter and requiring no retraining, this work substantially broadens the applicability of the SD framework in practice.

Quality estimation is omnipresent in machine translation, for both evaluation and generation. Unfortunately, quality estimation models are often opaque and computationally expensive, making them impractical to be part of large-scale pipelines. In this work, we tackle two connected challenges: (1) reducing the cost of quality estimation at scale, and (2) developing an inexpensive uncertainty estimation method for quality estimation. To address the latter, we introduce Instant Confidence COMET, an uncertainty-aware quality estimation model that matches the performance of previous approaches at a fraction of their costs. We extend this to Early-Exit COMET, a quality estimation model that can compute quality scores and associated confidences already at early model layers, allowing us to early-exit computations and reduce evaluation costs. We also apply our model to machine translation reranking. We combine Early-Exit COMET with an upper confidence bound bandit algorithm to find the best candidate from a large pool without having to run the full evaluation model on all candidates. In both cases (evaluation and reranking) our methods reduce the required compute by 50% with very little degradation in performance.

Speculative decoding (SD) has emerged as a widely used paradigm to accelerate the inference of large language models (LLMs) without compromising generation quality. It works by first employing a compact model to draft multiple tokens efficiently and then using the target LLM to verify them in parallel. While this technique has achieved notable speedups, most existing approaches necessitate either additional parameters or extensive training to construct effective draft models, thereby restricting their applicability across different LLMs and tasks. To address this limitation, we explore a novel plug-and-play SD solution with layer-skipping, which skips intermediate layers of the target LLM as the compact draft model. Our analysis reveals that LLMs exhibit great potential for self-acceleration through layer sparsity and the task-specific nature of this sparsity. Building on these insights, we introduce SWIFT, an on-the-fly self-speculative decoding algorithm that adaptively selects intermediate layers of LLMs to skip during inference. SWIFT does not require auxiliary models or additional training, making it a plug-and-play solution for accelerating LLM inference across diverse input data streams. Our extensive experiments across a wide range of models and downstream tasks demonstrate that SWIFT can achieve over a 1.3x-1.6x speedup while preserving the original distribution of the generated text.

Continuous-valued Autoregressive (AR) image generation models have demonstrated notable superiority over their discrete-token counterparts, showcasing considerable reconstruction quality and higher generation fidelity. However, the computational demands of the autoregressive framework result in significant inference overhead. While speculative decoding has proven effective in accelerating Large Language Models (LLMs), their adaptation to continuous-valued visual autoregressive models remains unexplored. This work generalizes the speculative decoding algorithm from discrete tokens to continuous space. By analyzing the intrinsic properties of output distribution, we establish a tailored acceptance criterion for the diffusion distributions prevalent in such models. To overcome the inconsistency that occurred in speculative decoding output distributions, we introduce denoising trajectory alignment and token pre-filling methods. Additionally, we identify the hard-to-sample distribution in the rejection phase. To mitigate this issue, we propose a meticulous acceptance-rejection sampling method with a proper upper bound, thereby circumventing complex integration. Experimental results show that our continuous speculative decoding achieves a remarkable 2.33times speed-up on off-the-shelf models while maintaining the output distribution. Codes will be available at https://github.com/MarkXCloud/CSpD

We investigate the problem of determining the predictive confidence (or, conversely, uncertainty) of a neural classifier through the lens of low-resource languages. By training models on sub-sampled datasets in three different languages, we assess the quality of estimates from a wide array of approaches and their dependence on the amount of available data. We find that while approaches based on pre-trained models and ensembles achieve the best results overall, the quality of uncertainty estimates can surprisingly suffer with more data. We also perform a qualitative analysis of uncertainties on sequences, discovering that a model's total uncertainty seems to be influenced to a large degree by its data uncertainty, not model uncertainty. All model implementations are open-sourced in a software package.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is an important technique for ensuring the trustworthiness of LLMs, given their tendency to hallucinate. Existing state-of-the-art UQ approaches for free-form generation rely heavily on sampling, which incurs high computational cost and variance. In this work, we propose the first gradient-based UQ method for free-form generation, SemGrad, which is sampling-free and computationally efficient. Unlike prior gradient-based methods developed for classification tasks that operates in parameter space, we propose to consider gradients in semantic space. Our method builds on the key intuition that a confident LLM should maintain stable output distributions under semantically equivalent input perturbations. We interpret the stability as the gradients in semantic space and introduce a Semantic Preservation Score (SPS) to identify embeddings that best capture semantics, with respect to which gradients are computed. We further propose HybridGrad, which combines the strengths of SemGrad and parameter gradients. Experiments demonstrate that both of our methods provide efficient and effective uncertainty estimates, achieving superior performance than state-of-the-art methods, particularly in settings with multiple valid responses.

Speculative decoding is an effective technique for accelerating large language model inference by drafting multiple tokens in parallel. In practice, its speedup is often bottlenecked by a rigid verification step that strictly enforces the accepted token distribution to exactly match the target model. This constraint leads to the rejection of many plausible tokens, lowering the acceptance rate and limiting overall time speedup. To overcome this limitation, we propose Dynamic Verification Relaxed Speculative Decoding (DIVERSED), a relaxed verification framework that improves time efficiency while preserving generation quality. DIVERSED learns an ensemble-based verifier that blends the draft and target model distributions with a task-dependent and context-dependent weight. We provide theoretical justification for our approach and demonstrate empirically that DIVERSED achieves substantially higher inference efficiency compared to standard speculative decoding methods. Code is available at: https://github.com/comeusr/diversed.

As LLMs generate increasingly long outputs, effective uncertainty estimation must identify errors at fine-grained levels rather than discard entire responses. While such methods exist, evaluating uncertainty at any resolution (token to an entire generation) is challenging and highly sensitive to label imperfections, making zero-noise benchmarks essential; yet, long-form generation benchmarks tend to rely on fallible labels rather than deterministic ground truth. We introduce Single-answer Atomic Long-form Target (SALT), a benchmark of six procedurally generated tasks with single deterministic long textual ground truths, enabling unit-level evaluation of correctness, calibration, and ranking without external judges. Equipped with SALT, our analysis of 50+ LLMs reveals key insights: We identify which confidence functions dominate each uncertainty aspect and show that confidence ranking largely breaks at atomic resolution, even when clearer separability emerges at coarser line-level units. SALT further enables controlled atom-level interventions throughout generation, revealing two separable drivers of future errors: propagation from corrupted prefixes, dominated by global context correctness, and bounded degradation from increasing answer-context length. Finally, we demonstrate that reasoning, via Chain-of-Thought prompting or internalized through training, introduces a trade-off, improving accuracy while degrading confidence ranking. These findings directly impact risk-critical applications requiring reliable error identification and mitigation.

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) research has primarily focused on closed-book factual question answering (QA), while contextual QA remains unexplored, despite its importance in real-world applications. In this work, we focus on UQ for the contextual QA task and propose a theoretically grounded approach to quantify epistemic uncertainty. We begin by introducing a task-agnostic, token-level uncertainty measure defined as the cross-entropy between the predictive distribution of the given model and the unknown true distribution. By decomposing this measure, we isolate the epistemic component and approximate the true distribution by a perfectly prompted, idealized model. We then derive an upper bound for epistemic uncertainty and show that it can be interpreted as semantic feature gaps in the given model's hidden representations relative to the ideal model. We further apply this generic framework to the contextual QA task and hypothesize that three features approximate this gap: context-reliance (using the provided context rather than parametric knowledge), context comprehension (extracting relevant information from context), and honesty (avoiding intentional lies). Using a top-down interpretability approach, we extract these features by using only a small number of labeled samples and ensemble them to form a robust uncertainty score. Experiments on multiple QA benchmarks in both in-distribution and out-of-distribution settings show that our method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art unsupervised (sampling-free and sampling-based) and supervised UQ methods, achieving up to a 13-point PRR improvement while incurring a negligible inference overhead.

The ability to acknowledge the inevitable uncertainty in their knowledge and reasoning is a prerequisite for AI systems to be truly truthful and reliable. In this paper, we present a taxonomy of uncertainty specific to vision-language AI systems, distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty (arising from a lack of information) and aleatoric uncertainty (due to inherent unpredictability), and further explore finer categories within. Based on this taxonomy, we synthesize a benchmark dataset, CertainlyUncertain, featuring 178K visual question answering (VQA) samples as contrastive pairs. This is achieved by 1) inpainting images to make previously answerable questions into unanswerable ones; and 2) using image captions to prompt large language models for both answerable and unanswerable questions. Additionally, we introduce a new metric confidence-weighted accuracy, that is well correlated with both accuracy and calibration error, to address the shortcomings of existing metrics.

Speculative decoding reduces the inference latency of a target large language model via utilizing a smaller and faster draft model. Its performance depends on a hyperparameter K -- the candidate length, i.e., the number of candidate tokens for the target model to verify in each round. However, previous methods often use simple heuristics to choose K, which may result in sub-optimal performance. We study the choice of the candidate length K and formulate it as a Markov Decision Process. We theoretically show that the optimal policy of this Markov decision process takes the form of a threshold policy, i.e., the current speculation should stop and be verified when the probability of getting a rejection exceeds a threshold value. Motivated by this theory, we propose SpecDec++, an enhanced version of speculative decoding that adaptively determines the candidate length on the fly. We augment the draft model with a trained acceptance prediction head to predict the conditional acceptance probability of the candidate tokens. SpecDec++ will stop the current speculation when the predicted probability that at least one token gets rejected exceeds a threshold. We implement SpecDec++ and apply it to the llama-2-chat 7B & 70B model pair. Our adaptive method achieves a 2.04x speedup on the Alpaca dataset (an additional 7.2% improvement over the baseline speculative decoding). On the GSM8K and HumanEval datasets, our method achieves a 2.26x speedup (9.4% improvement) and 2.23x speedup (11.1% improvement), respectively.

Uncertainty learning and quantification of models are crucial tasks to enhance the trustworthiness of the models. Importantly, the recent surge of generative language models (GLMs) emphasizes the need for reliable uncertainty quantification due to the concerns on generating hallucinated facts. In this paper, we propose to learn neural prediction set models that comes with the probably approximately correct (PAC) guarantee for quantifying the uncertainty of GLMs. Unlike existing prediction set models, which are parameterized by a scalar value, we propose to parameterize prediction sets via neural networks, which achieves more precise uncertainty quantification but still satisfies the PAC guarantee. We demonstrate the efficacy of our method on four types of language datasets and six types of models by showing that our method improves the quantified uncertainty by 63% on average, compared to a standard baseline method.

The growth in the number of parameters of Large Language Models (LLMs) has led to a significant surge in computational requirements, making them challenging and costly to deploy. Speculative decoding (SD) leverages smaller models to efficiently propose future tokens, which are then verified by the LLM in parallel. Small models that utilise activations from the LLM currently achieve the fastest decoding speeds. However, we identify several limitations of SD models including the lack of on-policyness during training and partial observability. To address these shortcomings, we propose a more grounded architecture for small models by introducing a Mixture of Attentions for SD. Our novel architecture can be applied in two scenarios: a conventional single device deployment and a novel client-server deployment where the small model is hosted on a consumer device and the LLM on a server. In a single-device scenario, we demonstrate state-of-the-art speedups improving EAGLE-2 by 9.5% and its acceptance length by 25%. In a client-server setting, our experiments demonstrate: 1) state-of-the-art latencies with minimal calls to the server for different network conditions, and 2) in the event of a complete disconnection, our approach can maintain higher accuracy compared to other SD methods and demonstrates advantages over API calls to LLMs, which would otherwise be unable to continue the generation process.

Inference-time scaling has emerged as a powerful alternative to parameter scaling for improving language model performance on complex reasoning tasks. While existing methods have shown strong performance gains under fixed compute budgets, there has been little focus on optimally utilizing that budget during inference. In this work, we introduce A*-decoding, a search-based inference-time strategy that builds on the A* search algorithm to optimally utilize a fixed compute budget by prioritizing high-quality reasoning paths during generation. We frame language model decoding as a structured search in a state space of partial solutions, applying the A* transition model to identify promising continuations guided by an external process supervision signal. In our experiments, A*-decoding reaches the performance levels of strong inference scaling baselines like best-of-N and particle filtering while using up to 3x fewer tokens and 30% fewer PRM passes under equivalent compute budgets. On the MATH500 and AIME 2024 benchmarks, A*-decoding enables Llama-3.2-1B-Instruct to match the performance of the 70x larger Llama-3.1-70B-Instruct, and allows Qwen3-1.7B to reach o1-like reasoning accuracy. These results highlight the power of structured search in decoding, offering an alternative to brute-force sampling or scale-driven gains. Our work demonstrates how thoughtful inference-time strategies can enhance reasoning in SLMs, pointing toward future advances in more efficient and scalable language model deployment.

Quantifying uncertainty in large language models (LLMs) is important for safety-critical applications because it helps spot incorrect answers, known as hallucinations. One major trend of uncertainty quantification methods is based on estimating the entropy of the distribution of the LLM's potential output sequences. This estimation is based on a set of output sequences and associated probabilities obtained by querying the LLM several times. In this paper, we advocate and experimentally show that the probability of unobserved sequences plays a crucial role, and we recommend future research to integrate it to enhance such LLM uncertainty quantification methods.

Recent advances in block diffusion language models have demonstrated competitive performance and strong scalability on reasoning tasks. However, existing BDLMs have limited exploration under the test-time scaling setting and face more severe decoding challenges in long Chain-of-Thought reasoning, particularly in balancing the decoding speed and effectiveness. In this work, we propose a unified framework for test-time scaling in BDLMs that introduces adaptivity in both decoding and block-wise generation. At the decoding level, we propose Bounded Adaptive Confidence Decoding (BACD), a difficulty-aware sampling strategy that dynamically adjusts denoising based on model confidence, accelerating inference while controlling error accumulation. Beyond step-wise adaptivity, we introduce Think Coarse, Critic Fine (TCCF), a test-time scaling paradigm that allocates large block sizes to exploratory reasoning and smaller block sizes to refinement, achieving an effective efficiency-effectiveness balance. To enable efficient and effective decoding with a large block size, we adopt Progressive Block Size Extension, which mitigates performance degradation when scaling block sizes. Extensive experiments show that applying BACD and TCCF to TDAR-8B yields significant improvements over strong baselines such as TraDo-8B (2.26x speedup, +11.2 points on AIME24). These results mark an important step toward unlocking the potential of BDLMs for test-time scaling in complex reasoning tasks.

Speculative decoding (SD) is a widely used approach for accelerating decode-heavy LLM inference workloads. While online inference workloads are highly dynamic, existing SD systems are rigid and take a coarse-grained approach to SD management. They typically set the speculative token length for an entire batch and serialize the execution of the draft and verification phases. Consequently, these systems fall short at adapting to volatile online inference traffic. Under low load, they exhibit prolonged latency because the draft phase blocks the verification phase for the entire batch, leaving GPU computing resources underutilized. Conversely, under high load, they waste computation on rejected tokens during the verification phase, overloading GPU resources. We introduce FASER, a novel system that features fine-grained SD phase management. First, FASER minimizes computational waste by dynamically adjusting the speculative length for each request within a continuous batch and by performing early pruning of rejected tokens inside the verification phase. Second, FASER breaks the verification phase into frontiers, or chunks, to overlap them with the draft phase. This overlap is achieved via fine-grained spatial multiplexing with minimal resource interference. Our FASER prototype in vLLM improves throughput by up to 53% and reduces latency by up to 1.92times compared to state-of-the-art systems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across many applications, with Mixture of Experts (MoE) models demonstrating great potential. Compared to traditional dense models, MoEs achieve better performance with less computation. Speculative decoding (SD) is a widely used technique to accelerate LLM inference without accuracy loss, but it has been considered efficient only for dense models. In this work, we first demonstrate that, under medium batch sizes, MoE surprisingly benefits more from SD than dense models. Furthermore, as MoE becomes sparser -- the prevailing trend in MoE designs -- the batch size range where SD acceleration is expected to be effective becomes broader. To quantitatively understand tradeoffs involved in SD, we develop a reliable modeling based on theoretical analyses. While current SD research primarily focuses on improving acceptance rates of algorithms, changes in workload and model architecture can still lead to degraded SD acceleration even with high acceptance rates. To address this limitation, we introduce a new metric 'target efficiency' that characterizes these effects, thus helping researchers identify system bottlenecks and understand SD acceleration more comprehensively. For scenarios like private serving, this work unveils a new perspective to speed up MoE inference, where existing solutions struggle. Experiments on different GPUs show up to 2.29x speedup for Qwen2-57B-A14B at medium batch sizes and validate our theoretical predictions.

We explore uncertainty quantification in large language models (LLMs), with the goal to identify when uncertainty in responses given a query is large. We simultaneously consider both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, where the former comes from the lack of knowledge about the ground truth (such as about facts or the language), and the latter comes from irreducible randomness (such as multiple possible answers). In particular, we derive an information-theoretic metric that allows to reliably detect when only epistemic uncertainty is large, in which case the output of the model is unreliable. This condition can be computed based solely on the output of the model obtained simply by some special iterative prompting based on the previous responses. Such quantification, for instance, allows to detect hallucinations (cases when epistemic uncertainty is high) in both single- and multi-answer responses. This is in contrast to many standard uncertainty quantification strategies (such as thresholding the log-likelihood of a response) where hallucinations in the multi-answer case cannot be detected. We conduct a series of experiments which demonstrate the advantage of our formulation. Further, our investigations shed some light on how the probabilities assigned to a given output by an LLM can be amplified by iterative prompting, which might be of independent interest.

Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate impressive performance in diverse applications, yet they face significant drawbacks, including high inference latency, expensive training cost, and generation of hallucination. Collaborative decoding between large and small language models (SLMs) offers a novel approach to address these challenges. Inspired by dual-process cognitive theory, we integrate these methods into a unified framework termed Fast and Slow Generating (FS-GEN). This paper explores several techniques within the FS-GEN framework, including speculative decoding, contrastive decoding, and emulator or proxy fine-tuning. We provide a comprehensive analysis of these methodologies, offering insights into their similarities and differences under this framework. Our study delves into the differential knowledge capabilities of LLMs versus SLMs through the FS-GEN lens, revealing that fewer than 20% of collaborative interactions are required across various methods. These interactions adhere to a scaling law relative to the parameter ratios, thereby facilitating predictable collaboration. Furthermore, we investigate the specific positions where collaboration is most effective from an uncertainty perspective, yielding novel insights that could refine FS-GEN methods. Our findings reveal that the essential difference between models of different sizes lies in the uncertainty of the next token prediction, where interventions by larger models are most needed to assist the smaller ones. Code for Reproduction: https://github.com/TsinghuaC3I/FS-GEN

Large Language Models (LLMs) suffer significant performance degradation in multi-turn conversations when information is presented incrementally. Given that multi-turn conversations characterize everyday interactions with LLMs, this degradation poses a severe challenge to real world usability. We hypothesize that abrupt increases in model uncertainty signal misalignment in multi-turn LLM interactions, and we exploit this insight to dynamically realign conversational context. We introduce ERGO (Entropy-guided Resetting for Generation Optimization), which continuously quantifies internal uncertainty via Shannon entropy over next token distributions and triggers adaptive prompt consolidation when a sharp spike in entropy is detected. By treating uncertainty as a first class signal rather than a nuisance to eliminate, ERGO embraces variability in language and modeling, representing and responding to uncertainty. In multi-turn tasks with incrementally revealed instructions, ERGO yields a 56.6% average performance gain over standard baselines, increases aptitude (peak performance capability) by 24.7%, and decreases unreliability (variability in performance) by 35.3%, demonstrating that uncertainty aware interventions can improve both accuracy and reliability in conversational AI.

Graphical user interface (GUI) agents have shown promise in automating mobile tasks but still struggle with input redundancy and decision ambiguity. In this paper, we present RecAgent, an uncertainty-aware agent that addresses these issues through adaptive perception. We distinguish two types of uncertainty in GUI navigation: (1) perceptual uncertainty, caused by input redundancy and noise from comprehensive screen information, and (2) decision uncertainty, arising from ambiguous tasks and complex reasoning. To reduce perceptual uncertainty, RecAgent employs a component recommendation mechanism that identifies and focuses on the most relevant UI elements. For decision uncertainty, it uses an interactive module to request user feedback in ambiguous situations, enabling intent-aware decisions. These components are integrated into a unified framework that proactively reduces input complexity and reacts to high-uncertainty cases via human-in-the-loop refinement. Additionally, we propose a dataset called ComplexAction to evaluate the success rate of GUI agents in executing specified single-step actions within complex scenarios. Extensive experiments validate the effectiveness of our approach. The dataset and code will be available at https://github.com/Fanye12/RecAgent.

Diffusion Language Models (DLMs) have recently emerged as a strong alternative to autoregressive language models (LMs). DLMs offer comparable accuracy with faster inference speed via parallel decoding. However, standard DLM decoding strategies relying on high-confidence tokens encounter an inherent information-theoretic bottleneck that restricts decoding progress and ultimately slows generation. We demonstrate both theoretically and empirically that prioritizing high-confidence tokens is inherently inefficient. High-probability tokens carry negligible information and strictly relying on them limits the effective progress made in each decoding round. We prove that the number of decoding rounds must grow linearly with the sample's total information (negative log-likelihood) and inversely with the per-round information budget, establishing a bits-to-rounds principle. We also propose Explore-Then-Exploit (ETE), a training-free decoding strategy that maximizes information throughput and decoding efficiency. ETE combines cross-block decoding with targeted exploration of high-uncertainty tokens to reshape the conditional distribution and trigger cascades of confident predictions. Experiments verify our theoretical bounds and demonstrate that ETE consistently reduces the required number of decoding rounds compared to confidence-only baselines without compromising generation quality.

Bayesian neural networks (BNN) and deep ensembles are principled approaches to estimate the predictive uncertainty of a deep learning model. However their practicality in real-time, industrial-scale applications are limited due to their heavy memory and inference cost. This motivates us to study principled approaches to high-quality uncertainty estimation that require only a single deep neural network (DNN). By formalizing the uncertainty quantification as a minimax learning problem, we first identify input distance awareness, i.e., the model's ability to quantify the distance of a testing example from the training data in the input space, as a necessary condition for a DNN to achieve high-quality (i.e., minimax optimal) uncertainty estimation. We then propose Spectral-normalized Neural Gaussian Process (SNGP), a simple method that improves the distance-awareness ability of modern DNNs, by adding a weight normalization step during training and replacing the output layer with a Gaussian process. On a suite of vision and language understanding tasks and on modern architectures (Wide-ResNet and BERT), SNGP is competitive with deep ensembles in prediction, calibration and out-of-domain detection, and outperforms the other single-model approaches.

There are two major types of uncertainty one can model. Aleatoric uncertainty captures noise inherent in the observations. On the other hand, epistemic uncertainty accounts for uncertainty in the model -- uncertainty which can be explained away given enough data. Traditionally it has been difficult to model epistemic uncertainty in computer vision, but with new Bayesian deep learning tools this is now possible. We study the benefits of modeling epistemic vs. aleatoric uncertainty in Bayesian deep learning models for vision tasks. For this we present a Bayesian deep learning framework combining input-dependent aleatoric uncertainty together with epistemic uncertainty. We study models under the framework with per-pixel semantic segmentation and depth regression tasks. Further, our explicit uncertainty formulation leads to new loss functions for these tasks, which can be interpreted as learned attenuation. This makes the loss more robust to noisy data, also giving new state-of-the-art results on segmentation and depth regression benchmarks.

Vision-language models (VLMs) embed aligned image-text pairs into a joint space but often rely on deterministic embeddings, assuming a one-to-one correspondence between images and texts. This oversimplifies real-world relationships, which are inherently many-to-many, with multiple captions describing a single image and vice versa. We introduce Probabilistic Language-Image Pre-training (ProLIP), the first probabilistic VLM pre-trained on a billion-scale image-text dataset using only probabilistic objectives, achieving a strong zero-shot capability (e.g., 74.6% ImageNet zero-shot accuracy with ViT-B/16). ProLIP efficiently estimates uncertainty by an "uncertainty token" without extra parameters. We also introduce a novel inclusion loss that enforces distributional inclusion relationships between image-text pairs and between original and masked inputs. Experiments demonstrate that, by leveraging uncertainty estimates, ProLIP benefits downstream tasks and aligns with intuitive notions of uncertainty, e.g., shorter texts being more uncertain and more general inputs including specific ones. Utilizing text uncertainties, we further improve ImageNet accuracy from 74.6% to 75.8% (under a few-shot setting), supporting the practical advantages of our probabilistic approach. The code is available at https://github.com/naver-ai/prolip