Daily Papers

A faithful and interpretable explanation of an AI model's behavior and internal structure is a high-level explanation that is human-intelligible but also consistent with the known, but often opaque low-level causal details of the model. We argue that the theory of causal abstraction provides the mathematical foundations for the desired kinds of model explanations. In causal abstraction analysis, we use interventions on model-internal states to rigorously assess whether an interpretable high-level causal model is a faithful description of an AI model. Our contributions in this area are: (1) We generalize causal abstraction to cyclic causal structures and typed high-level variables. (2) We show how multi-source interchange interventions can be used to conduct causal abstraction analyses. (3) We define a notion of approximate causal abstraction that allows us to assess the degree to which a high-level causal model is a causal abstraction of a lower-level one. (4) We prove constructive causal abstraction can be decomposed into three operations we refer to as marginalization, variable-merge, and value-merge. (5) We formalize the XAI methods of LIME, causal effect estimation, causal mediation analysis, iterated nullspace projection, and circuit-based explanations as special cases of causal abstraction analysis.

Tokenization algorithms that merge the units of a base vocabulary into larger, variable-rate units have become standard in natural language processing tasks. This idea, however, has been mostly overlooked when the vocabulary consists of phonemes or Discrete Acoustic Units (DAUs), an audio-based representation that is playing an increasingly important role due to the success of discrete language-modeling techniques. In this paper, we showcase the advantages of tokenization of phonetic units and of DAUs on three prediction tasks: grapheme-to-phoneme, grapheme-to-DAUs, and unsupervised speech generation using DAU language modeling. We demonstrate that tokenization yields significant improvements in terms of performance, as well as training and inference speed, across all three tasks. We also offer theoretical insights to provide some explanation for the superior performance observed.

The automated analysis of chemical literature holds promise to accelerate discovery in fields such as material science and drug development. In particular, search capabilities for chemical structures and Markush structures (chemical structure templates) within patent documents are valuable, e.g., for prior-art search. Advancements have been made in the automatic extraction of chemical structures from text and images, yet the Markush structures remain largely unexplored due to their complex multi-modal nature. In this work, we present MarkushGrapher, a multi-modal approach for recognizing Markush structures in documents. Our method jointly encodes text, image, and layout information through a Vision-Text-Layout encoder and an Optical Chemical Structure Recognition vision encoder. These representations are merged and used to auto-regressively generate a sequential graph representation of the Markush structure along with a table defining its variable groups. To overcome the lack of real-world training data, we propose a synthetic data generation pipeline that produces a wide range of realistic Markush structures. Additionally, we present M2S, the first annotated benchmark of real-world Markush structures, to advance research on this challenging task. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms state-of-the-art chemistry-specific and general-purpose vision-language models in most evaluation settings. Code, models, and datasets will be available.

Variable-order Markov models generate sequences over a finite alphabet by conditioning each symbol on the longest available suffix of the generated history. Regular constraints, by contrast, describe finite-horizon control requirements by an automaton: fixed positions, forced endings, metrical patterns, and forbidden copied fragments are all special cases. Existing exact methods already handle regular constraints with belief propagation for first-order Markov chains. The contribution here is the variable-order extension: identifying the state space on which the existing BP-regular machinery must be run when the generator is a variable-order/backoff model. A first-order constraint layer can enforce useful support conditions, but it computes future mass after merging histories that a variable-order generator deliberately keeps distinct. We formalize this mismatch and give the sparse construction obtained by replacing the first-order Markov state with the observed context state, then taking the standard product with the regular constraint automaton. For a fixed trained context graph and automaton, inference is linear in the sequence horizon; in general it is polynomial in the number of reachable product edges. This gives the correct variable-order distribution conditioned on regular constraints without expanding to all K-tuples. The same finite-source interface supports reversible data augmentation by inverse count lookup, matching materialized transposition augmentation without storing transformed corpora. We also separate exact BP inference from generation-time backoff policies, such as singleton avoidance, whose stochastic semantics must be made explicit if exactness is claimed.

Adapting large language models (LLMs) to new languages typically involves continual pre-training (CT) followed by supervised fine-tuning (SFT). However, this CT-then-SFT approach struggles with limited data in the context of low-resource languages, failing to balance language modeling and task-solving capabilities. We thus propose model merging as an alternative for low-resource languages, combining models with distinct capabilities into a single model without additional training. We use model merging to develop task-solving LLMs for low-resource languages without SFT data in the target languages. Our experiments based on Llama-2-7B demonstrate that model merging effectively endows LLMs for low-resource languages with task-solving abilities, outperforming CT-then-SFT in scenarios with extremely scarce data. Observing performance saturation in model merging with more training tokens, we further analyze the merging process and introduce a slack variable to the model merging algorithm to mitigate the loss of important parameters, thereby enhancing performance. We hope that model merging can benefit more human languages suffering from data scarcity with its higher data efficiency.

Pretraining methods are typically compared by evaluating the accuracy of linear classifiers, transfer learning performance, or visually inspecting the representation manifold's (RM) lower-dimensional projections. We show that the differences between methods can be understood more clearly by investigating the RM directly, which allows for a more detailed comparison. To this end, we propose a framework and new metric to measure and compare different RMs. We also investigate and report on the RM characteristics for various pretraining methods. These characteristics are measured by applying sequentially larger local alterations to the input data, using white noise injections and Projected Gradient Descent (PGD) adversarial attacks, and then tracking each datapoint. We calculate the total distance moved for each datapoint and the relative change in distance between successive alterations. We show that self-supervised methods learn an RM where alterations lead to large but constant size changes, indicating a smoother RM than fully supervised methods. We then combine these measurements into one metric, the Representation Manifold Quality Metric (RMQM), where larger values indicate larger and less variable step sizes, and show that RMQM correlates positively with performance on downstream tasks.

Data-driven models now rival numerical weather prediction in the medium range, but extending them to sub-seasonal lead times raises challenges absent at shorter horizons. Errors accumulate over long autoregressive rollouts, systematic biases grow with lead time, and several years of data must be held out for independent verification, even though machine-learning models otherwise benefit from longer training records. To address these challenges, we adapt ECMWF's AIFS-CRPS medium-range model. AIFS-SUBS adopts a 24h autoregressive time step to reduce error accumulation, adds stratospheric levels and top-of-atmosphere thermal radiation as predictors, and reserves 2007--2011 as an independent verification window. We evaluate two config-durations: AIFS-SUBS, fine-tuned on operational analyses, and AIFS-SUBS-ERA5, trained on ERA5 alone. Across weeks 2--6, AIFS-SUBS matches the operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) in probabilistic skill while reducing systematic biases. For the convective (OLR) component of the Madden--Julian Oscillation (MJO), AIFS-SUBS extends skilful forecasts (correlation > 0.5) by eight days relative to the IFS, while matching or exceeding the IFS for the full multivariate RMM index. AIFS-SUBS also reproduces the observed MJO modulation of tropical cyclone activity comparably. Stratospheric skill is particularly strong with AIFS-SUBS reproducing sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) frequency and surface impact. In the AI Weather Quest, AIFS-SUBS-ERA5 attains a variable-averaged ranked probability skill score slightly ahead of the IFS at weeks 3 and 4. At inference, AIFS-SUBS uses about 200 times less energy than the IFS, opening the door to much larger real-time ensembles. AIFS-SUBS is ECMWF's first machine-learning model targeted at sub-seasonal time-scales.

Robot manipulation alternates between low-risk transit phases that call for fast execution and high-risk contact stages that demand slow, precise motion. Yet existing Vision-Language-Action models (VLAs) only inherit a single fixed speed from training demonstrations. Prior efforts to accelerate VLAs through model compression, KV-cache reuse, or reinforcement learning only shift the policy from one fixed speed to another, and leave deceleration almost unexplored. We observe that the magnitude of each predicted action already governs how fast the robot moves, opening a direct route to controllable execution speed. We turn this observation into TempoVLA, a single VLA whose execution speed is controlled by an explicit condition. TempoVLA combines two coupled components. (1) A data-side Variable-Speed Trajectory Augmentation (VSTA) that re-times demonstration to any target speed by merging or splitting actions while preserving its motion semantics. (2) A model-side conditioning mechanism that feeds the speed to the policy. Statistics show that VSTA reaches the requested speed with negligible motion error. Experiments in simulation and on real-world tasks demonstrate that TempoVLA achieves flexible speed control in both directions, while VSTA additionally boosts the default 1times performance via better data utilization. Furthermore, by cooperating with a large multimodal model, TempoVLA realizes dynamic speed control, accelerating through low-risk phases and decelerating for high-risk ones.

Decoder-only autoregressive image generation typically relies on fixed-length tokenization schemes whose token counts grow quadratically with resolution, substantially increasing the computational and memory demands of attention. We present DPAR, a novel decoder-only autoregressive model that dynamically aggregates image tokens into a variable number of patches for efficient image generation. Our work is the first to demonstrate that next-token prediction entropy from a lightweight and unsupervised autoregressive model provides a reliable criterion for merging tokens into larger patches based on information content. DPAR makes minimal modifications to the standard decoder architecture, ensuring compatibility with multimodal generation frameworks and allocating more compute to generation of high-information image regions. Further, we demonstrate that training with dynamically sized patches yields representations that are robust to patch boundaries, allowing DPAR to scale to larger patch sizes at inference. DPAR reduces token count by 1.81x and 2.06x on Imagenet 256 and 384 generation resolution respectively, leading to a reduction of up to 40% FLOPs in training costs. Further, our method exhibits faster convergence and improves FID by up to 27.1% relative to baseline models.