Daily Papers

Many empirical studies of labor market questions rely on estimating relatively simple predictive models using small, carefully constructed longitudinal survey datasets based on hand-engineered features. Large Language Models (LLMs), trained on massive datasets, encode vast quantities of world knowledge and can be used for the next job prediction problem. However, while an off-the-shelf LLM produces plausible career trajectories when prompted, the probability with which an LLM predicts a particular job transition conditional on career history will not, in general, align with the true conditional probability in a given population. Recently, Vafa et al. (2024) introduced a transformer-based "foundation model", CAREER, trained using a large, unrepresentative resume dataset, that predicts transitions between jobs; it further demonstrated how transfer learning techniques can be used to leverage the foundation model to build better predictive models of both transitions and wages that reflect conditional transition probabilities found in nationally representative survey datasets. This paper considers an alternative where the fine-tuning of the CAREER foundation model is replaced by fine-tuning LLMs. For the task of next job prediction, we demonstrate that models trained with our approach outperform several alternatives in terms of predictive performance on the survey data, including traditional econometric models, CAREER, and LLMs with in-context learning, even though the LLM can in principle predict job titles that are not allowed in the survey data. Further, we show that our fine-tuned LLM-based models' predictions are more representative of the career trajectories of various workforce subpopulations than off-the-shelf LLM models and CAREER. We conduct experiments and analyses that highlight the sources of the gains in the performance of our models for representative predictions.

The distribution of subpopulations is an important property hidden within a dataset. Uncovering and analyzing the subpopulation distribution within datasets provides a comprehensive understanding of the datasets, standing as a powerful tool beneficial to various downstream tasks, including Dataset Subpopulation Organization, Subpopulation Shift, and Slice Discovery. Despite its importance, there has been no work that systematically explores the subpopulation distribution of datasets to our knowledge. To address the limitation and solve all the mentioned tasks in a unified way, we introduce a novel concept of subpopulation structures to represent, analyze, and utilize subpopulation distributions within datasets. To characterize the structures in an interpretable manner, we propose the Subpopulation Structure Discovery with Large Language Models (SSD-LLM) framework, which employs world knowledge and instruction-following capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) to linguistically analyze informative image captions and summarize the structures. Furthermore, we propose complete workflows to address downstream tasks, named Task-specific Tuning, showcasing the application of the discovered structure to a spectrum of subpopulation-related tasks, including dataset subpopulation organization, subpopulation shift, and slice discovery. Furthermore, we propose complete workflows to address downstream tasks, named Task-specific Tuning, showcasing the application of the discovered structure to a spectrum of subpopulation-related tasks, including dataset subpopulation organization, subpopulation shift, and slice discovery.

Machine learning models often perform poorly on subgroups that are underrepresented in the training data. Yet, little is understood on the variation in mechanisms that cause subpopulation shifts, and how algorithms generalize across such diverse shifts at scale. In this work, we provide a fine-grained analysis of subpopulation shift. We first propose a unified framework that dissects and explains common shifts in subgroups. We then establish a comprehensive benchmark of 20 state-of-the-art algorithms evaluated on 12 real-world datasets in vision, language, and healthcare domains. With results obtained from training over 10,000 models, we reveal intriguing observations for future progress in this space. First, existing algorithms only improve subgroup robustness over certain types of shifts but not others. Moreover, while current algorithms rely on group-annotated validation data for model selection, we find that a simple selection criterion based on worst-class accuracy is surprisingly effective even without any group information. Finally, unlike existing works that solely aim to improve worst-group accuracy (WGA), we demonstrate the fundamental tradeoff between WGA and other important metrics, highlighting the need to carefully choose testing metrics. Code and data are available at: https://github.com/YyzHarry/SubpopBench.

The labor market is a complex ecosystem comprising diverse, interconnected entities, such as industries, occupations, skills, and firms. Due to the lack of a systematic method to map these heterogeneous entities together, each entity has been analyzed in isolation or only through pairwise relationships, inhibiting comprehensive understanding of the whole ecosystem. Here, we introduce Labor Space, a vector-space embedding of heterogeneous labor market entities, derived through applying a large language model with fine-tuning. Labor Space exposes the complex relational fabric of various labor market constituents, facilitating coherent integrative analysis of industries, occupations, skills, and firms, while retaining type-specific clustering. We demonstrate its unprecedented analytical capacities, including positioning heterogeneous entities on an economic axes, such as `Manufacturing--Healthcare'. Furthermore, by allowing vector arithmetic of these entities, Labor Space enables the exploration of complex inter-unit relations, and subsequently the estimation of the ramifications of economic shocks on individual units and their ripple effect across the labor market. We posit that Labor Space provides policymakers and business leaders with a comprehensive unifying framework for labor market analysis and simulation, fostering more nuanced and effective strategic decision-making.

Traditional direct estimation methods are not efficient for domains of a survey population with small sample sizes. To estimate the domain proportions, we combine the direct estimators and the regression-synthetic estimators based on domain-level auxiliary information. For the case of small true proportions, we introduce the design-based linear combination that is a robust alternative to the empirical best linear unbiased predictor (EBLUP) based on the Fay--Herriot model. We also consider an adaptive procedure optimizing a sample-size-dependent composite estimator, which depends on a single parameter for all domains. We imitate the Lithuanian Labor Force Survey, where we estimate the proportions of the unemployed and employed in municipalities. We show where the considered design-based compositions and estimators of their mean square errors are competitive for EBLUP and its accuracy estimation.

In a rapidly evolving job market, skill demand forecasting is crucial as it enables policymakers and businesses to anticipate and adapt to changes, ensuring that workforce skills align with market needs, thereby enhancing productivity and competitiveness. Additionally, by identifying emerging skill requirements, it directs individuals towards relevant training and education opportunities, promoting continuous self-learning and development. However, the absence of comprehensive datasets presents a significant challenge, impeding research and the advancement of this field. To bridge this gap, we present Job-SDF, a dataset designed to train and benchmark job-skill demand forecasting models. Based on 10.35 million public job advertisements collected from major online recruitment platforms in China between 2021 and 2023, this dataset encompasses monthly recruitment demand for 2,324 types of skills across 521 companies. Our dataset uniquely enables evaluating skill demand forecasting models at various granularities, including occupation, company, and regional levels. We benchmark a range of models on this dataset, evaluating their performance in standard scenarios, in predictions focused on lower value ranges, and in the presence of structural breaks, providing new insights for further research. Our code and dataset are publicly accessible via the https://github.com/Job-SDF/benchmark.

We investigate the potential implications of large language models (LLMs), such as Generative Pre-trained Transformers (GPTs), on the U.S. labor market, focusing on the increased capabilities arising from LLM-powered software compared to LLMs on their own. Using a new rubric, we assess occupations based on their alignment with LLM capabilities, integrating both human expertise and GPT-4 classifications. Our findings reveal that around 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of LLMs, while approximately 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. We do not make predictions about the development or adoption timeline of such LLMs. The projected effects span all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure to LLM capabilities and LLM-powered software. Significantly, these impacts are not restricted to industries with higher recent productivity growth. Our analysis suggests that, with access to an LLM, about 15% of all worker tasks in the US could be completed significantly faster at the same level of quality. When incorporating software and tooling built on top of LLMs, this share increases to between 47 and 56% of all tasks. This finding implies that LLM-powered software will have a substantial effect on scaling the economic impacts of the underlying models. We conclude that LLMs such as GPTs exhibit traits of general-purpose technologies, indicating that they could have considerable economic, social, and policy implications.

Large participatory biomedical studies, studies that recruit individuals to join a dataset, are gaining popularity and investment, especially for analysis by modern AI methods. Because they purposively recruit participants, these studies are uniquely able to address a lack of historical representation, an issue that has affected many biomedical datasets. In this work, we define representativeness as the similarity to a target population distribution of a set of attributes and our goal is to mirror the U.S. population across distributions of age, gender, race, and ethnicity. Many participatory studies recruit at several institutions, so we introduce a computational approach to adaptively allocate recruitment resources among sites to improve representativeness. In simulated recruitment of 10,000-participant cohorts from medical centers in the STAR Clinical Research Network, we show that our approach yields a more representative cohort than existing baselines. Thus, we highlight the value of computational modeling in guiding recruitment efforts.

Understanding labor market dynamics is essential for policymakers, employers, and job seekers. However, comprehensive datasets that capture real-world career trajectories are scarce. In this paper, we introduce JobHop, a large-scale public dataset derived from anonymized resumes provided by VDAB, the public employment service in Flanders, Belgium. Utilizing Large Language Models (LLMs), we process unstructured resume data to extract structured career information, which is then mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes using a multi-label classification model. This results in a rich dataset of over 2.3 million work experiences, extracted from and grouped into more than 391,000 user resumes and mapped to standardized ESCO occupation codes, offering valuable insights into real-world occupational transitions. This dataset enables diverse applications, such as analyzing labor market mobility, job stability, and the effects of career breaks on occupational transitions. It also supports career path prediction and other data-driven decision-making processes. To illustrate its potential, we explore key dataset characteristics, including job distributions, career breaks, and job transitions, demonstrating its value for advancing labor market research.

In-context learning is commonly interpreted as a form of conditional inference, in which the prompt specifies a context and the model's output is treated as an estimate of the corresponding conditional distribution. If this interpretation holds, then LLM estimates should satisfy basic probabilistic identities. In particular, the law of total probability asserts that prior-weighted conditional distributions aggregate into population-level marginals over any valid partition of the population. In this work, we investigate to what extent LLM estimates adhere to this self-consistency principle. We use binary trees as an evaluation scaffold to recursively partition a population into increasingly fine-grained subpopulations. We then prompt LLMs with verbalized subpopulation descriptions in context, aggregate the resulting estimates back into population-level estimates, and compare them across partitions of varying granularity. Applying this protocol across problem domains and state-of-the-art frontier models, we show widespread violations of basic consistency properties. An in-depth study of persona prompting reveals a pattern we call the macro fallacy: estimates reconstructed from more fine-grained subpopulation responses are often better aligned with human reference data than direct population-level estimates. This effect persists across variations in tree structure and estimation task, and can be partially recovered through implicit prompting. Together, these findings suggest that models possess relevant subpopulation knowledge but do not reliably propagate it into aggregate estimates. This gap establishes statistical self-consistency as an unsaturated, reference-free criterion for evaluating LLMs.

Today's evolving labor markets rely increasingly on recommender systems for hiring, talent management, and workforce analytics, with natural language processing (NLP) capabilities at the core. Yet, research in this area remains highly fragmented. Studies employ divergent ontologies (ESCO, O*NET, national taxonomies), heterogeneous task formulations, and diverse model families, making cross-study comparison and reproducibility exceedingly difficult. General-purpose benchmarks lack coverage of work-specific tasks, and the inherent sensitivity of employment data further limits open evaluation. We present WorkRB (Work Research Benchmark), the first open-source, community-driven benchmark tailored to work-domain AI. WorkRB organizes 13 diverse tasks from 7 task groups as unified recommendation and NLP tasks, including job/skill recommendation, candidate recommendation, similar item recommendation, and skill extraction and normalization. WorkRB enables both monolingual and cross-lingual evaluation settings through dynamic loading of multilingual ontologies. Developed within a multi-stakeholder ecosystem of academia, industry, and public institutions, WorkRB has a modular design for seamless contributions and enables integration of proprietary tasks without disclosing sensitive data. WorkRB is available under the Apache 2.0 license at https://github.com/techwolf-ai/WorkRB.

Large Language Model (LLM)-based multi-agent systems show promise for automating real-world tasks but struggle to transfer across domains due to their domain-specific nature. Current approaches face two critical shortcomings: they require complete architectural redesign and full retraining of all components when applied to new domains. We introduce Workforce, a hierarchical multi-agent framework that decouples strategic planning from specialized execution through a modular architecture comprising: (i) a domain-agnostic Planner for task decomposition, (ii) a Coordinator for subtask management, and (iii) specialized Workers with domain-specific tool-calling capabilities. This decoupling enables cross-domain transferability during both inference and training phases: During inference, Workforce seamlessly adapts to new domains by adding or modifying worker agents; For training, we introduce Optimized Workforce Learning (OWL), which improves generalization across domains by optimizing a domain-agnostic planner with reinforcement learning from real-world feedback. To validate our approach, we evaluate Workforce on the GAIA benchmark, covering various realistic, multi-domain agentic tasks. Experimental results demonstrate Workforce achieves open-source state-of-the-art performance (69.70%), outperforming commercial systems like OpenAI's Deep Research by 2.34%. More notably, our OWL-trained 32B model achieves 52.73% accuracy (+16.37%) and demonstrates performance comparable to GPT-4o on challenging tasks. To summarize, by enabling scalable generalization and modular domain transfer, our work establishes a foundation for the next generation of general-purpose AI assistants.

We study the problem of adaptively identifying patient subpopulations that benefit from a given treatment during a confirmatory clinical trial. This type of adaptive clinical trial has been thoroughly studied in biostatistics, but has been allowed only limited adaptivity so far. Here, we aim to relax classical restrictions on such designs and investigate how to incorporate ideas from the recent machine learning literature on adaptive and online experimentation to make trials more flexible and efficient. We find that the unique characteristics of the subpopulation selection problem -- most importantly that (i) one is usually interested in finding subpopulations with any treatment benefit (and not necessarily the single subgroup with largest effect) given a limited budget and that (ii) effectiveness only has to be demonstrated across the subpopulation on average -- give rise to interesting challenges and new desiderata when designing algorithmic solutions. Building on these findings, we propose AdaGGI and AdaGCPI, two meta-algorithms for subpopulation construction. We empirically investigate their performance across a range of simulation scenarios and derive insights into their (dis)advantages across different settings.

The rapidly evolving labor market, driven by technological advancements and economic shifts, presents significant challenges for traditional job matching and consultation services. In response, we introduce an advanced support tool for career counselors and job seekers based on CareerBERT, a novel approach that leverages the power of unstructured textual data sources, such as resumes, to provide more accurate and comprehensive job recommendations. In contrast to previous approaches that primarily focus on job recommendations based on a fixed set of concrete job advertisements, our approach involves the creation of a corpus that combines data from the European Skills, Competences, and Occupations (ESCO) taxonomy and EURopean Employment Services (EURES) job advertisements, ensuring an up-to-date and well-defined representation of general job titles in the labor market. Our two-step evaluation approach, consisting of an application-grounded evaluation using EURES job advertisements and a human-grounded evaluation using real-world resumes and Human Resources (HR) expert feedback, provides a comprehensive assessment of CareerBERT's performance. Our experimental results demonstrate that CareerBERT outperforms both traditional and state-of-the-art embedding approaches while showing robust effectiveness in human expert evaluations. These results confirm the effectiveness of CareerBERT in supporting career consultants by generating relevant job recommendations based on resumes, ultimately enhancing the efficiency of job consultations and expanding the perspectives of job seekers. This research contributes to the field of NLP and job recommendation systems, offering valuable insights for both researchers and practitioners in the domain of career consulting and job matching.

Nearly 110 million people are forcibly displaced people worldwide. However, estimating the scale and patterns of internally displaced persons in real time, and developing appropriate policy responses, remain hindered by traditional data streams. They are infrequently updated, costly and slow. Mobile phone location data can overcome these limitations, but only represent a population segment. Drawing on an anonymised large-scale, high-frequency dataset of locations from 25 million mobile devices, we propose an approach to leverage mobile phone data and produce population-level estimates of internal displacement. We use this approach to quantify the extent, pace and geographic patterns of internal displacement in Ukraine during the early stages of the Russian invasion in 2022. Our results produce reliable population-level estimates, enabling real-time monitoring of internal displacement at detailed spatio-temporal resolutions. Accurate estimations are crucial to support timely and effective humanitarian and disaster management responses, prioritising resources where they are most needed.

We present the findings and results of the Second Nuanced Arabic Dialect Identification Shared Task (NADI 2021). This Shared Task includes four subtasks: country-level Modern Standard Arabic (MSA) identification (Subtask 1.1), country-level dialect identification (Subtask 1.2), province-level MSA identification (Subtask 2.1), and province-level sub-dialect identification (Subtask 2.2). The shared task dataset covers a total of 100 provinces from 21 Arab countries, collected from the Twitter domain. A total of 53 teams from 23 countries registered to participate in the tasks, thus reflecting the interest of the community in this area. We received 16 submissions for Subtask 1.1 from five teams, 27 submissions for Subtask 1.2 from eight teams, 12 submissions for Subtask 2.1 from four teams, and 13 Submissions for subtask 2.2 from four teams.

We introduce GDPval, a benchmark evaluating AI model capabilities on real-world economically valuable tasks. GDPval covers the majority of U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Work Activities for 44 occupations across the top 9 sectors contributing to U.S. GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Tasks are constructed from the representative work of industry professionals with an average of 14 years of experience. We find that frontier model performance on GDPval is improving roughly linearly over time, and that the current best frontier models are approaching industry experts in deliverable quality. We analyze the potential for frontier models, when paired with human oversight, to perform GDPval tasks cheaper and faster than unaided experts. We also demonstrate that increased reasoning effort, increased task context, and increased scaffolding improves model performance on GDPval. Finally, we open-source a gold subset of 220 tasks and provide a public automated grading service at evals.openai.com to facilitate future research in understanding real-world model capabilities.

We investigate the impact of artificial intelligence (AI) adoption on skill requirements using 14 million online job vacancies from Chinese listed firms (2018-2022). Employing a novel Extreme Multi-Label Classification (XMLC) algorithm trained via contrastive learning and LLM-driven data augmentation, we map vacancy requirements to the ESCO framework. By benchmarking occupation-skill relationships against 2018 O*NET-ESCO mappings, we document a robust causal relationship between AI adoption and the expansion of skill portfolios. Our analysis identifies two distinct mechanisms. First, AI reduces information asymmetry in the labor market, enabling firms to specify current occupation-specific requirements with greater precision. Second, AI empowers firms to anticipate evolving labor market dynamics. We find that AI adoption significantly increases the demand for "forward-looking" skills--those absent from 2018 standards but subsequently codified in 2022 updates. This suggests that AI allows firms to lead, rather than follow, the formal evolution of occupational standards. Our findings highlight AI's dual role as both a stabilizer of current recruitment information and a catalyst for proactive adaptation to future skill shifts.

Timely intensive care dictates survival, yet emergency infrastructure remains unevenly distributed across Sri Lanka. While pre-hospital services have expanded, the transition to definitive care remains a critical bottleneck. This study evaluates national emergency resilience by quantifying the gap between clinical demand and the availability of specialized resources across all 25 districts. Using the latest national epidemiological data and terrain-aware H3 hexagonal modeling, we analyzed accessibility for seven critical conditions based on spatial gaps, clinical need-gaps, lethality, coverage, and resource availability. Based on these metrics, unsupervised K-Means clustering was applied to categorize districts into four policy-actionable archetypes: Critical Structural Exclusion, Institutional Mirages, Operational Capacity Strain, and High-Resilience Benchmarks. Our study suggests that severe service deficits exist in the Northern and Eastern provinces, where spatial gaps exceed 70%, rendering the Golden Hour operationally impossible. Notably, specialist scarcity drives systemic pressure more than bed capacity; underserved regions effectively function as institutional mirages. This study suggests that improving accessibility by 25% in high-priority clusters would reduce the national need-gap by 9.65%, providing a roadmap for the strategic redistribution of specialists to ensure healthcare equity.