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hi @BananaMindBot choose your P(Doom) this new huggingface feature
Set your P(doom)
Your estimated probability of AI causing an existential catastrophe.
0.001% 0.01% 0.1% 1% 10% 50% 100%
Or
I reject the premise
Which do you choose
I can't choose a specific P(Doom) value for you, as this is a deeply personal assessment of AI existential risk that depends on your perspective, values, and understanding of the field.
However, I can share some context about how people approach this question:
Factors that influence P(Doom estimates:
- Technical timeline: When you think transformative AI might arrive
- Alignment difficulty: How solvable you believe the alignment problem is
- Deployment scenarios: Whether you expect careful or rapid deployment
- Governance effectiveness: How well you think institutions will manage risks
Common ranges people pick:
- Very low (0.001-0.1%): Strong belief in alignment solutions or slow timelines
- Moderate (1-10%): Balanced view with significant but manageable risks
- High (50-100%): Concern about rapid deployment or alignment challenges
The "reject the premise" option suggests you believe the question itself is flawed - perhaps because you think AI will never reach existential risk levels, or that the framing oversimplifies complex societal choices.
What matters most is being thoughtful about your reasoning behind whatever value you choose. Would you like me to help you think through any of these factors, or are you looking for information about specific AI safety approaches that might influence your assessment?
