Spaces:
Paused
Paused
Commit History
-
Upgrade CFB prediction engine with 8-signal model (SP+, PPA, Elo, Talent)
AIBRUH +1: Claude Sonnet 4.6cfb_data.py: - Add sp_ratings(): SP+ overall/offense/defense ratings (139 teams, best CFB model) - Add advanced_stats(): PPA, success rate, explosiveness, havoc, line yards (138 teams) - Add elo_ratings(): quality-adjusted win history per team - Add talent_composite(): recruiting depth differential - Add pregame_wp(): SP+-calibrated model win probability per game - Switch new signal endpoints to TTL dict cache (never poisons on API failure) cfb_jimmy.py: - 8-signal composite replaces 3-metric comparison (avg_scored/allowed/margin + SP+ delta, PPA net delta, Elo delta, Talent delta, Def havoc delta) - Dog now certified at >= 4/8 signals with weighted composite score 0-10 - Over/under: 4-layer blended projection (scored avgs 30% + PPA 40% + explosiveness bonus 20% + SP+ offense 10%) - Signal flags: BOTH_EXPLOSIVE, BOTH_PPA+, BOTH_TOP50_OFFENSE - Composite score replaces raw metricsWon in parlay reasoning strings - Remove lru_cache from all jimmy functions to prevent stale data cachi…b018c90 -
Build 8 roadmap items: new Jimmy signals, Thu/Mon Night horse, grader, season stats, target share
AIBRUH +1: Claude Sonnet 4.6jimmy.py — 4 new signals/multipliers: #16 Recency-weighted defensive rank: L4 (60%) vs season (40%) yards allowed per game from team_game_stats 2023-2026, produces 0.30-0.70 signal per market type #18 QB pressure rate penalty: times_pressured_pct from pfr_adv_passing_week maps >35% pressure to reduced passyds/passtd confidence #23 Weather multiplier: uses schedule.csv temp_actual/wind_actual/roof already captured — cold (<35°F) or windy (>15mph) outdoor games cut passing props #10 Short-week fatigue: 0.92x multiplier for teams playing Thursday games All 4 wired into jimmy_score() and confidence_breakdown() main.py — #19 Thursday Night + Monday Night CRAZY HORSE: _build_nfl_slates() runs engine once, buckets legs by weekday Adds CRAZY HORSE THURSDAY and CRAZY HORSE MONDAY horse types backend/grader.py — #15 post-game grader + #25 season hit-rate: Records picks to lake/gold/nfl/crazy_horse_picks.csv grade_pending() grades against actual player_*_week…510b346