optimize_weights_v2.py

"""Build optimal model from cached data with proper re-scoring."""
import json
import logging
from pathlib import Path
from collections import defaultdict
import itertools

logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s [%(levelname)s] %(message)s")

import sys
sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space')

from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel
from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner, DEFAULT_WEIGHTS
from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace
from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance, get_profile

DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data')
CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache'
RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results'
REPORTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'reports'


def load_cached_form(date: str, track: str, race: str) -> dict | None:
    """Load cached FormFav form data."""
    for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'):
        try:
            with open(f) as fp:
                data = json.load(fp)
            if (data.get('date') == date and 
                data.get('track', '').lower() == track.lower() and 
                str(data.get('raceNumber')) == str(race)):
                return data
        except:
            continue
    return None


def re_score_race(weights: dict, race_data: dict) -> dict | None:
    """Re-score a race with new weights."""
    try:
        runners = []
        for r in race_data.get('runners', []):
            if r.get('scratched'):
                continue
            runner = RunnerModel(
                number=r['number'],
                name=r.get('name', ''),
                jockey=r.get('jockey'),
                trainer=r.get('trainer'),
                weight=r.get('weight'),
                barrier=r.get('barrier'),
                age=r.get('age'),
                sex=r.get('sex'),
                form=r.get('form', ''),
                last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''),
                stats=r.get('stats', {}),
            )
            runners.append(runner)
        
        if len(runners) < 3:
            return None
        
        race = RaceModel(
            date=race_data.get('date', ''),
            track=race_data.get('track', ''),
            track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()),
            race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0),
            race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''),
            distance=race_data.get('distance'),
            condition=race_data.get('condition'),
            race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'),
            abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False),
            start_time=race_data.get('startTime'),
            prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')),
            number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)),
            runners=runners,
        )
        
        pace = classify_pace(race, runners)
        
        scored = []
        for r in runners:
            sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights)
            scored.append({
                'number': r.number,
                'name': r.name,
                'score': sc['score'],
            })
        
        scored.sort(key=lambda x: x['score'], reverse=True)
        trifecta = [s['number'] for s in scored[:3]]
        
        return {
            'track': race_data.get('track', ''),
            'race': race_data.get('raceNumber', 0),
            'trifecta': trifecta,
            'runners': scored,
        }
    except Exception as e:
        return None


def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict:
    """Evaluate a single date."""
    result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json"
    if not result_path.exists():
        result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json"
    if not result_path.exists():
        return {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "error": "no results"}
    
    with open(result_path) as f:
        rdata = json.load(f)
    
    result_lookup = {}
    if isinstance(rdata, dict):
        if 'tracks' in rdata:
            for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items():
                if isinstance(races, dict):
                    for rn, r in races.items():
                        runners = r.get('runners', [])
                        winners = []
                        for runner in runners:
                            pos = runner.get('position')
                            if pos and pos <= 3:
                                winners.append((pos, runner['number']))
                        winners.sort()
                        actual = [w[1] for w in winners]
                        if actual:
                            result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual
                elif isinstance(races, list):
                    for r in races:
                        if 'trifecta' in r:
                            result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = r['trifecta']
        else:
            for track, races in rdata.items():
                if isinstance(races, list):
                    for r in races:
                        if 'trifecta' in r:
                            result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = r['trifecta']
    
    stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0, "top3": 0}
    
    for cache_file in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'):
        try:
            with open(cache_file) as f:
                data = json.load(f)
            if data.get('date') != date:
                continue
            
            track = data.get('track', '')
            race_num = data.get('raceNumber', 0)
            
            actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num))
            if not actual:
                continue
            
            result = re_score_race(weights, data)
            if not result:
                continue
            
            pred_nums = result['trifecta']
            
            stats["total"] += 1
            if pred_nums == actual:
                stats["exact"] += 1
            if set(pred_nums) == set(actual):
                stats["box"] += 1
            if pred_nums[0] == actual[0]:
                stats["top1"] += 1
            stats["top3"] += len(set(pred_nums) & set(actual))
        except Exception as e:
            continue
    
    if stats["total"] > 0:
        stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100
    
    return stats


def grid_search(dates: list[str], param_grid: dict, base_weights: dict):
    """Grid search over weight combinations."""
    param_names = list(param_grid.keys())
    param_values = [param_grid[name] for name in param_names]
    
    results = []
    total_combos = 1
    for v in param_values:
        total_combos *= len(v)
    
    print(f"Testing {total_combos} weight combinations...")
    
    for i, combo in enumerate(itertools.product(*param_values)):
        weights = dict(base_weights)
        for name, value in zip(param_names, combo):
            weights[name] = value
        
        total_w = sum(weights.values())
        weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()}
        
        agg_stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0}
        
        for date in dates:
            stats = evaluate_date(date, weights)
            if "error" not in stats:
                agg_stats["total"] += stats["total"]
                agg_stats["top1"] += stats["top1"]
                agg_stats["exact"] += stats["exact"]
        
        top1_pct = agg_stats["top1"] / agg_stats["total"] * 100 if agg_stats["total"] > 0 else 0
        
        results.append({
            "params": dict(zip(param_names, combo)),
            "weights": weights,
            "stats": agg_stats,
            "top1_pct": top1_pct,
        })
        
        if (i + 1) % 50 == 0:
            print(f"  Progress: {i+1}/{total_combos}")
    
    results.sort(key=lambda x: x["top1_pct"], reverse=True)
    return results


def main():
    dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"]
    
    base_weights = {
        "form": 0.18, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.10,
        "track_distance": 0.10, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06,
        "fitness": 0.08, "barrier": 0.08, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.03,
    }
    
    param_grid = {
        "form": [0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30],
        "class": [0.10, 0.15, 0.20],
        "distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14],
        "track": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14],
        "track_distance": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14],
        "fitness": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12],
        "barrier": [0.06, 0.10, 0.14],
        "weight": [0.04, 0.08, 0.12],
        "pace": [0.02, 0.05, 0.08],
    }
    
    fixed = {"condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06}
    
    print("=" * 60)
    print("GRID SEARCH OPTIMIZATION")
    print("=" * 60)
    
    results = grid_search(dates, param_grid, {**base_weights, **fixed})
    
    print("\n" + "=" * 60)
    print("TOP 10 WEIGHT COMBINATIONS")
    print("=" * 60)
    
    for i, r in enumerate(results[:10]):
        print(f"\n{i+1}. Top1: {r['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({r['stats']['top1']}/{r['stats']['total']})")
        p = r['params']
        print(f"   form={p['form']:.2f}, class={p['class']:.2f}, dist={p['distance']:.2f}, "
              f"track={p['track']:.2f}, track_dist={p['track_distance']:.2f}, "
              f"fitness={p['fitness']:.2f}, barrier={p['barrier']:.2f}, "
              f"weight={p['weight']:.2f}, pace={p['pace']:.2f}")
    
    if results:
        best = results[0]
        print("\n" + "=" * 60)
        print("BEST WEIGHTS")
        print("=" * 60)
        print(f"Top 1: {best['top1_pct']:.1f}% ({best['stats']['top1']}/{best['stats']['total']})")
        
        print("\nPer-date performance:")
        for date in dates:
            stats = evaluate_date(date, best['weights'])
            if stats['total'] > 0:
                print(f"  {date}: {stats['total']} races, {stats['top1']} top1 ({stats['top1']/stats['total']*100:.0f}%)")
    
    return results


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()