optimize_distances_v2.py

"""Build distance-specific models with proper calibration."""
import json
from pathlib import Path

import sys
sys.path.insert(0, '/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space')

from trifecta_bro.data.models import RaceModel, RunnerModel
from trifecta_bro.model.scoring import score_runner
from trifecta_bro.model.pace_analysis import classify_pace
from trifecta_bro.model.distance_profiles import classify_distance

DATA_DIR = Path('/home/brettanthonysjoberg179/trifecta-bro-hf-space/data')
CACHE_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'cache'
RESULTS_DIR = DATA_DIR / 'results'


def load_cached_races(date: str) -> list[dict]:
    races = []
    for f in CACHE_DIR.glob('*.json'):
        try:
            with open(f) as fp:
                data = json.load(fp)
            if data.get('date') == date:
                races.append(data)
        except:
            continue
    return races


def load_results(date: str) -> dict:
    result_lookup = {}
    result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}-ra.json"
    if not result_path.exists():
        result_path = RESULTS_DIR / f"{date}.json"
    if not result_path.exists():
        return result_lookup
    
    with open(result_path) as f:
        rdata = json.load(f)
    
    if isinstance(rdata, dict):
        if 'tracks' in rdata:
            for track, races in rdata['tracks'].items():
                if isinstance(races, dict):
                    for rn, r in races.items():
                        runners = r.get('runners', [])
                        winners = []
                        for runner in runners:
                            pos = runner.get('position')
                            if pos and pos <= 3:
                                winners.append((pos, runner['number']))
                        winners.sort()
                        actual = [w[1] for w in winners]
                        if actual:
                            result_lookup[(track, int(rn))] = actual
                elif isinstance(races, list):
                    for r in races:
                        if 'trifecta' in r:
                            result_lookup[(track, r.get('race', 0))] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']]
        else:
            for track, races in rdata.items():
                if isinstance(races, list):
                    for r in races:
                        if 'trifecta' in r:
                            result_lookup[(track, r['race'])] = [int(str(x).replace('e','')) for x in r['trifecta']]
    
    return result_lookup


def score_race(race_data: dict, weights: dict) -> list[int] | None:
    try:
        runners = []
        for r in race_data.get('runners', []):
            if r.get('scratched'):
                continue
            runner = RunnerModel(
                number=r['number'], name=r.get('name', ''),
                jockey=r.get('jockey'), trainer=r.get('trainer'),
                weight=r.get('weight'), barrier=r.get('barrier'),
                age=r.get('age'), sex=r.get('sex'),
                form=r.get('form', ''), last20_starts=r.get('last20Starts', ''),
                stats=r.get('stats', {}),
            )
            runners.append(runner)
        
        if len(runners) < 3:
            return None
        
        race = RaceModel(
            date=race_data.get('date', ''), track=race_data.get('track', ''),
            track_slug=race_data.get('slug', race_data.get('track', '').lower()),
            race_number=race_data.get('raceNumber', 0),
            race_name=race_data.get('raceName', ''),
            distance=race_data.get('distance'),
            condition=race_data.get('condition'),
            race_class=race_data.get('raceClass'),
            abandoned=race_data.get('abandoned', False),
            start_time=race_data.get('startTime'),
            prize_money=str(race_data.get('prizeMoney', '')),
            number_of_runners=race_data.get('numberOfRunners', len(runners)),
            runners=runners,
        )
        
        pace = classify_pace(race, runners)
        scored = []
        for r in runners:
            sc = score_runner(r, race, pace, weights)
            scored.append((r.number, sc['score']))
        
        scored.sort(key=lambda x: x[1], reverse=True)
        return [s[0] for s in scored[:3]]
    except:
        return None


def evaluate_date(date: str, weights: dict) -> dict:
    result_lookup = load_results(date)
    races = load_cached_races(date)
    stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0}
    
    for race_data in races:
        track = race_data.get('track', '')
        race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0)
        actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num))
        if not actual:
            continue
        
        pred = score_race(race_data, weights)
        if not pred:
            continue
        
        stats["total"] += 1
        if pred == actual:
            stats["exact"] += 1
        if set(pred) == set(actual):
            stats["box"] += 1
        if pred[0] == actual[0]:
            stats["top1"] += 1
    
    if stats["total"] > 0:
        stats["top1_pct"] = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100
    return stats


def evaluate_all(dates: list[str], weights: dict) -> dict:
    agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0, "exact": 0, "box": 0}
    for date in dates:
        stats = evaluate_date(date, weights)
        agg["total"] += stats["total"]
        agg["top1"] += stats["top1"]
        agg["exact"] += stats["exact"]
        agg["box"] += stats["box"]
    agg["top1_pct"] = agg["top1"] / agg["total"] * 100 if agg["total"] > 0 else 0
    return agg


def grid_search_for_distance(dates: list[str], distance_class: str) -> dict:
    """Find optimal weights for a specific distance class."""
    
    # First, get all races for this distance class
    races_for_dist = []
    for date in dates:
        races = load_cached_races(date)
        for race_data in races:
            if classify_distance(race_data.get('distance', '1200m')) == distance_class:
                races_for_dist.append((date, race_data))
    
    if not races_for_dist:
        return {"weights": None, "top1_pct": 0, "total": 0}
    
    # Grid search
    best_pct = 0
    best_weights = None
    
    for form in [0.15, 0.20, 0.25, 0.30]:
        for class_w in [0.10, 0.15, 0.20]:
            for dist in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14]:
                for td in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14]:
                    for barrier in [0.06, 0.10, 0.14, 0.18]:
                        for fitness in [0.04, 0.08, 0.12]:
                            for pace in [0.02, 0.05, 0.08, 0.12]:
                                for weight in [0.04, 0.08, 0.12]:
                                    weights = {
                                        "form": form, "class": class_w, "distance": dist,
                                        "track": dist, "track_distance": td,
                                        "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06,
                                        "fitness": fitness, "barrier": barrier,
                                        "weight": weight, "pace": pace,
                                    }
                                    total_w = sum(weights.values())
                                    weights = {k: v / total_w for k, v in weights.items()}
                                    
                                    # Evaluate on this distance class only
                                    stats = {"total": 0, "top1": 0}
                                    for date, race_data in races_for_dist:
                                        result_lookup = load_results(date)
                                        track = race_data.get('track', '')
                                        race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0)
                                        actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num))
                                        if not actual:
                                            continue
                                        
                                        pred = score_race(race_data, weights)
                                        if not pred:
                                            continue
                                        
                                        stats["total"] += 1
                                        if pred[0] == actual[0]:
                                            stats["top1"] += 1
                                    
                                    if stats["total"] > 0:
                                        pct = stats["top1"] / stats["total"] * 100
                                        if pct > best_pct:
                                            best_pct = pct
                                            best_weights = weights
    
    return {"weights": best_weights, "top1_pct": best_pct, "total": len(races_for_dist)}


def main():
    dates = ["2026-08-07", "2026-08-08", "2026-08-09", "2026-08-14"]
    
    print("=" * 60)
    print("DISTANCE-SPECIFIC OPTIMIZATION")
    print("=" * 60)
    
    # Find optimal weights per distance class
    for dist_class in ["sprint", "middle", "staying"]:
        print(f"\n--- {dist_class.upper()} ---")
        result = grid_search_for_distance(dates, dist_class)
        if result["weights"]:
            print(f"Best: {result['top1_pct']:.1f}% on {result['total']} races")
            w = result["weights"]
            print(f"  form={w['form']:.2f}, class={w['class']:.2f}, barrier={w['barrier']:.2f}, "
                  f"pace={w['pace']:.2f}, fitness={w['fitness']:.2f}, weight={w['weight']:.2f}")
        else:
            print("No races found for this distance class")
    
    # Combined evaluation
    print("\n" + "=" * 60)
    print("COMBINED EVALUATION")
    print("=" * 60)
    
    # Use best weights per distance class
    profiles = {
        "sprint": {
            "form": 0.15, "class": 0.10, "distance": 0.06, "track": 0.06,
            "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.04, "jockey": 0.04,
            "fitness": 0.04, "barrier": 0.18, "weight": 0.08, "pace": 0.12,
        },
        "middle": {
            "form": 0.20, "class": 0.13, "distance": 0.08, "track": 0.08,
            "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.05, "jockey": 0.06,
            "fitness": 0.05, "barrier": 0.13, "weight": 0.05, "pace": 0.04,
        },
        "staying": {
            "form": 0.14, "class": 0.14, "distance": 0.10, "track": 0.06,
            "track_distance": 0.08, "condition": 0.06, "jockey": 0.08,
            "fitness": 0.10, "barrier": 0.04, "weight": 0.06, "pace": 0.04,
        },
    }
    
    # Evaluate with distance-specific profiles
    agg = {"total": 0, "top1": 0}
    for date in dates:
        result_lookup = load_results(date)
        races = load_cached_races(date)
        
        for race_data in races:
            track = race_data.get('track', '')
            race_num = race_data.get('raceNumber', 0)
            actual = result_lookup.get((track, race_num))
            if not actual:
                continue
            
            dist_class = classify_distance(race_data.get('distance', '1200m'))
            weights = profiles[dist_class]
            
            pred = score_race(race_data, weights)
            if not pred:
                continue
            
            agg["total"] += 1
            if pred[0] == actual[0]:
                agg["top1"] += 1
    
    if agg["total"] > 0:
        print(f"\nCombined: {agg['top1']}/{agg['total']} ({agg['top1']/agg['total']*100:.1f}%)")
    
    return profiles


if __name__ == "__main__":
    main()