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| """Feature engineering. | |
| Form-string parsing follows the FormFav convention: | |
| - digits 1..9 are finishing positions (1st..9th) | |
| - '0' means 10th or worse | |
| - 'x' (or 'X') means a spell / no result (NOT a finishing position) | |
| - '-' / '.' separators are ignored | |
| Recent results weigh more than old ones. Quality improves/declines tracked via | |
| slope of recent positions. | |
| """ | |
| from __future__ import annotations | |
| import math | |
| import re | |
| from typing import Optional | |
| # Map a finishing token to a numeric score (higher = better). x/spell = None. | |
| _FINISH_SCORE = {1: 100, 2: 80, 3: 65, 4: 50, 5: 40, 6: 32, 7: 26, 8: 20, 9: 15, 0: 8} | |
| def parse_form_positions(form: str) -> list[Optional[int]]: | |
| """Return finishing positions oldest->newest; x/spell -> None.""" | |
| if not form: | |
| return [] | |
| tokens = re.findall(r"[0-9xX]", form) | |
| out: list[Optional[int]] = [] | |
| for t in tokens: | |
| if t in ("x", "X"): | |
| out.append(None) # spell / no result | |
| else: | |
| out.append(int(t)) | |
| return out | |
| def form_quality_score(form: str, max_len: int = 12) -> tuple[float, dict]: | |
| """Return (0..100 score, diagnostics). Recent results weighted exponentially.""" | |
| positions = parse_form_positions(form) | |
| # normalise to latest `max_len` | |
| recent = positions[-max_len:] | |
| if not recent: | |
| return 0.0, {"reason": "no form data", "recent": []} | |
| # weight recency: newest gets highest weight | |
| n = len(recent) | |
| total_w = 0.0 | |
| weighted = 0.0 | |
| for i, pos in enumerate(recent): | |
| w = 2 ** (i) # newest (last) has largest exponent | |
| if pos is None: | |
| # spell: mildly negative but not catastrophic; treat as 0-score | |
| total_w += w | |
| continue | |
| total_w += w | |
| weighted += _FINISH_SCORE.get(pos, 8) * w | |
| base = (weighted / total_w) if total_w else 0.0 | |
| # consistency: fraction of recent runs that placed (1..3) — ignoring spells | |
| placed = [p for p in recent if p is not None and p <= 3] | |
| consistency = len(placed) / max(1, len([p for p in recent if p is not None])) | |
| # trend: compare mean of last 3 (non-spell) vs prior 3 (non-spell) | |
| valid = [p for p in recent if p is not None] | |
| trend = 0.0 | |
| if len(valid) >= 4: | |
| last3 = valid[-3:] | |
| prev3 = valid[-6:-3] | |
| if prev3: | |
| m_last = sum(last3) / len(last3) | |
| m_prev = sum(prev3) / len(prev3) | |
| # lower position number = better; improvement => positive | |
| trend = max(-1.0, min(1.0, (m_prev - m_last) / 3.0)) | |
| score = 0.75 * base + 20 * consistency + 15 * max(0.0, trend) | |
| score = max(0.0, min(100.0, score)) | |
| return round(score, 1), { | |
| "recent": recent, | |
| "consistency": round(consistency, 2), | |
| "trend": round(trend, 2), | |
| "base": round(base, 1), | |
| } | |
| def spell_count(form: str) -> int: | |
| """Number of spell markers (x) — indicates layoffs.""" | |
| return len(re.findall(r"[xX]", form or "")) | |
| def is_fresh_after_spell(form: str) -> bool: | |
| """True if the most recent result is a spell (just resumed).""" | |
| positions = parse_form_positions(form) | |
| return bool(positions) and positions[-1] is None | |