Website data through 2026-11-07

site/tasks/kp_index_daily_max.json

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-{"id":"kp_index_daily_max","spec":{"target":"kp_index_daily_max","title":"Planetary Kp index, daily maximum","question":"How high will the planetary Kp index of geomagnetic activity reach tomorrow and the day after (UTC)?","taxonomy":"space/space-weather","driver":"solar","domain":"Space weather","region":"Global (planetary index)","unit":"Kp","tradable":false,"summary":"The highest of the day's eight three-hourly values of the planetary K index (Kp), the 0 to 9 scale of geomagnetic disturbance behind NOAA's geomagnetic storm warnings, as NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) estimates it in near real time. Solar wind streams and coronal mass ejections drive it, and solar images, solar wind measurements and forecasters' discussions add information that history alone does not contain. It is compared with SWPC's 3-day forecast.","y":{"definition":"Maximum over the UTC day of the eight three-hourly estimated planetary Kp values (blocks starting at 00, 03, ..., 21 UTC) in NOAA SWPC's Planetary K-index product, in thirds written as decimals (1.67 for 2-, 2.33 for 2+). A day counts once all eight values are posted.","settlement":"First published value: the day's eight values as SWPC's product shows them at about 10:15 UTC the next day, when the pipeline reads it. A day not complete then is settled at the first later daily reading, with any value the product never shows taken from SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices for that day. SWPC's later corrections and GFZ Potsdam's official Kp are not used.","source":{"name":"NOAA SWPC, Planetary K-index (noaa-planetary-k-index.json)","url":"https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/products/noaa-planetary-k-index.json"}},"schedule":{"snapshot":"10:15","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"12:20"},"x":{"history_start":"2024-01-01","frequency":"daily (UTC days), with the three-hourly values it is derived from","given_to":"TSFMs only; agents find their own information","raw":["Three-hourly estimated planetary Kp (SWPC's Kp product for the last seven days, SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices before)","The three-hourly Kp breakdown of every SWPC 3-day forecast issue the series uses, with each day's maximum"],"groups":[{"name":"Kp history","columns":["target"],"what":"The target itself, every UTC day up to the day before the run date: the last seven days from SWPC's Kp product as published at the snapshot, older days from SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices, which carry the same estimated values and which NCEI archives. A missing day is filled linearly.","why":"Disturbed conditions last a few days, and the fast solar wind from coronal holes returns with the Sun's 27-day rotation, so the history carries both the current level and what came one rotation ago.","source":"NOAA SWPC (Kp product; Daily Space Weather Indices, NCEI archive)","url":"https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/swpc-products/daily_reports/space_weather_indices/"},{"name":"Earlier SWPC 3-day forecast","columns":["swpc"],"expert":true,"what":"The maximum of SWPC's three-hourly Kp forecast for each day as a run could see it: for past days, from the latest issue published before the day began, normally 12:30 UTC the day before (one day ahead); for the forecast window, from the latest issue before the snapshot, normally 00:30 UTC on the run date, which covers the run date and the two target dates. The 12:30 issue the run is compared with comes after the cutoff and is not included. Past days no issue covered (gaps in NCEI's archive, mostly in 2024) carry the day before's maximum.","why":"SWPC's forecasters watch the Sun, coronal mass ejections on their way and the solar wind upstream of Earth, which the history alone cannot see.","source":"NOAA SWPC 3-Day Forecast (NCEI archive; SWPC's live file)","url":"https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/swpc-products/daily_reports/3day_forecast/"},{"name":"Calendar","columns":["doy"],"what":"Day of the year.","why":"Geomagnetic activity is higher around the equinoxes, when Earth's magnetic field couples best with the solar wind's.","source":"computed"}]},"baseline":{"system":"swpc-3day-forecast","label":"SWPC 3-day forecast","name":"NOAA SWPC 3-Day Forecast","kind":"point","visible_to_agents":false,"method":"SWPC's 3-day forecast issued at 12:30 UTC on the run date, the first issue after the cutoff, which the agents cannot see; it is read the next day from NCEI's archive, or from SWPC's FTP server if NCEI does not have it yet. Its \"NOAA Kp index breakdown\" gives eight three-hourly Kp values for each of three UTC days, and B for a target date is the maximum of that day's eight. If an issue comes out between the snapshot and the cutoff, the agents could see it, and B is left empty. B is still mostly visible: the issue before it, at 00:30 UTC, is public before the cutoff and gave the same daily maximum as B on 91% of run dates at horizon 1 and 86% at horizon 2 over the year to October 2026.","source":{"name":"NOAA SWPC 3-Day Forecast (NCEI 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6","cutoff":"2026-11-06T12:20:00+00:00","target_dates":["2026-11-07","2026-11-08"],"quantile_levels":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"task":"kp_index_daily_max","target":{"name":"Planetary Kp index, daily maximum","unit":"Kp","definition":"Maximum over the UTC day of the eight three-hourly estimated planetary Kp values (blocks starting at 00, 03, ..., 21 UTC) in NOAA SWPC's Planetary K-index product, in thirds written as decimals (1.67 for 2-, 2.33 for 2+). A day counts once all eight values are posted. Source: NOAA SWPC, Planetary K-index (noaa-planetary-k-index.json). First published value: the day's eight values as SWPC's product shows them at about 10:15 UTC the next day, when the pipeline reads it. A day not complete then is settled at the first later daily reading, with any value the product never shows taken from SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices for that day. SWPC's later corrections and GFZ Potsdam's official Kp are not used."},"last_observed":"2026-11-05","known_covariates":["swpc","doy"],"expert_covariates":["swpc"],"past_covariates":[],"covariate_notes":{"target":"maximum of the UTC day's eight three-hourly estimated planetary Kp values of NOAA SWPC, in thirds (1.67 = 2-, 2.33 = 2+): the last seven days from SWPC's Kp product as published at the snapshot, older days from SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices (NCEI archive); a missing day is filled linearly","swpc":"maximum of SWPC's 3-day forecast of the day's eight three-hourly Kp values: for past days from the latest issue published before the day began (normally 12:30 UTC the day before), for the run date onward from the latest issue before the snapshot (normally 00:30 UTC on the run date), carried forward past its last day; a past day no issue covered carries the day before's maximum","doy":"day of the year, 1 to 366; geomagnetic activity is higher around the equinoxes"}},"case_studies":[],"links":{"live_task":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/live/kp_index_daily_max","mock_tasks":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/mock/kp_index_daily_max","results":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/Chennzi/agentic-forecasting-results/tree/main/runs/kp_index_daily_max"}}
+{"id":"kp_index_daily_max","spec":{"target":"kp_index_daily_max","title":"Planetary Kp index, daily maximum","question":"How high will the planetary Kp index of geomagnetic activity reach tomorrow and the day after (UTC)?","taxonomy":"space/space-weather","driver":"solar","domain":"Space weather","region":"Global (planetary index)","unit":"Kp","tradable":false,"summary":"The highest of the day's eight three-hourly values of the planetary K index (Kp), the 0 to 9 scale of geomagnetic disturbance behind NOAA's geomagnetic storm warnings, as NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) estimates it in near real time. Solar wind streams and coronal mass ejections drive it, and solar images, solar wind measurements and forecasters' discussions add information that history alone does not contain. It is compared with SWPC's 3-day forecast.","y":{"definition":"Maximum over the UTC day of the eight three-hourly estimated planetary Kp values (blocks starting at 00, 03, ..., 21 UTC) in NOAA SWPC's Planetary K-index product, in thirds written as decimals (1.67 for 2-, 2.33 for 2+). A day counts once all eight values are posted.","settlement":"First published value: the day's eight values as SWPC's product shows them at about 10:15 UTC the next day, when the pipeline reads it. A day not complete then is settled at the first later daily reading, with any value the product never shows taken from SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices for that day. SWPC's later corrections and GFZ Potsdam's official Kp are not used.","source":{"name":"NOAA SWPC, Planetary K-index (noaa-planetary-k-index.json)","url":"https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/products/noaa-planetary-k-index.json"}},"schedule":{"snapshot":"10:15","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"UTC","cutoff":"12:20"},"x":{"history_start":"2024-01-01","frequency":"daily (UTC days), with the three-hourly values it is derived from","given_to":"TSFMs only; agents find their own information","raw":["Three-hourly estimated planetary Kp (SWPC's Kp product for the last seven days, SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices before)","The three-hourly Kp breakdown of every SWPC 3-day forecast issue the series uses, with each day's maximum"],"groups":[{"name":"Kp history","columns":["target"],"what":"The target itself, every UTC day up to the day before the run date: the last seven days from SWPC's Kp product as published at the snapshot, older days from SWPC's Daily Space Weather Indices, which carry the same estimated values and which NCEI archives. A missing day is filled linearly.","why":"Disturbed conditions last a few days, and the fast solar wind from coronal holes returns with the Sun's 27-day rotation, so the history carries both the current level and what came one rotation ago.","source":"NOAA SWPC (Kp product; Daily Space Weather Indices, NCEI archive)","url":"https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/swpc-products/daily_reports/space_weather_indices/"},{"name":"Earlier SWPC 3-day forecast","columns":["swpc"],"expert":true,"what":"The maximum of SWPC's three-hourly Kp forecast for each day as a run could see it: for past days, from the latest issue published before the day began, normally 12:30 UTC the day before (one day ahead); for the forecast window, from the latest issue before the snapshot, normally 00:30 UTC on the run date, which covers the run date and the two target dates. The 12:30 issue the run is compared with comes after the cutoff and is not included. Past days no issue covered (gaps in NCEI's archive, mostly in 2024) carry the day before's maximum.","why":"SWPC's forecasters watch the Sun, coronal mass ejections on their way and the solar wind upstream of Earth, which the history alone cannot see.","source":"NOAA SWPC 3-Day Forecast (NCEI archive; SWPC's live file)","url":"https://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/space-weather/swpc-products/daily_reports/3day_forecast/"},{"name":"Calendar","columns":["doy"],"what":"Day of the year.","why":"Geomagnetic activity is higher around the equinoxes, when Earth's magnetic field couples best with the solar wind's.","source":"computed"}]},"baseline":{"system":"swpc-3day-forecast","label":"SWPC 3-day forecast","name":"NOAA SWPC 3-Day Forecast","kind":"point","visible_to_agents":false,"method":"SWPC's 3-day forecast issued at 12:30 UTC on the run date, the first issue after the cutoff, which the agents cannot see; it is read the next day from NCEI's archive, or from SWPC's FTP server if NCEI does not have it yet. Its \"NOAA Kp index breakdown\" gives eight three-hourly Kp values for each of three UTC days, and B for a target date is the maximum of that day's eight. If an issue comes out between the snapshot and the cutoff, the agents could see it, and B is left empty. 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