Website data through 2026-11-07

site/tasks/vercel_anthropic_spend_share.json

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-{"id":"vercel_anthropic_spend_share","spec":{"target":"vercel_anthropic_spend_share","title":"Anthropic's share of Vercel AI Gateway spend","question":"What share of all spend on Vercel's AI Gateway will go to Anthropic's models on each of the next seven UTC days?","taxonomy":"economy/technology-adoption","driver":"behavioral","domain":"Technology adoption","region":"Global","unit":"% of spend","tradable":false,"summary":"Anthropic's share of all the money developers spend on AI models through Vercel's AI Gateway in one UTC day, as Vercel's public leaderboard of AI labs reports it. Which models developers and their coding tools choose moves it by several points from day to day and by tens of points over months; model releases, price changes and outages add information that history alone does not contain. Kalshi runs a market on the value of every even date, which gives the baseline. One of the agent configurations runs on an Anthropic model, so this target asks it to forecast its maker's market share.","y":{"definition":"Anthropic's share, in percent, of all spend through Vercel's AI Gateway on the target date, a UTC day: the field share_percent of the row with name \"anthropic\" and metric \"spend\" in the labs dataset (modality \"all\") of Vercel's AI Gateway leaderboard export, the data of the leaderboard's Spend chart, \"Share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs\". Every lab's share of the day is listed, and they sum to 100. Vercel documents neither what its spend measures nor the time zone of its days; UTC days are inferred, not documented.","settlement":"The first value recorded for the date: the export's value, kept to its four decimals, read once a full day has passed since the date's UTC day ended, normally at the 16:45 ET run two days after the date. Vercel changes past values slightly afterwards (2026-09-26 read 35.3554 about 2026-11-01 and 35.3648 on 2026-11-03); later changes are not used.","source":{"name":"Vercel AI Gateway leaderboard, labs, spend (open data, CC BY 4.0)","url":"https://vercel.com/ai-gateway/leaderboards/labs"}},"schedule":{"snapshot":"16:45","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"America/New_York","cutoff":"18:30"},"x":{"history_start":"2025-10-01","frequency":"daily, UTC days","given_to":"TSFMs only; agents find their own information","raw":["Every lab's daily share of AI Gateway spend in the export, for the days X_d uses","Kalshi's quotes for each contract at each reading of the Kalshi column"],"groups":[{"name":"Spend share history","columns":["target"],"what":"The target itself, every UTC day from 2025-10-01, the first day Vercel's export holds, up to the last day that had ended at least 12 hours before Vercel built the answer read at the snapshot: normally the day before the run date. A missing day is filled linearly.","why":"The share follows the models developers adopt over weeks, so the recent level and trend carry most of the signal; it also swings by several points from one day to the next.","source":"Vercel AI Gateway leaderboard export (labs, spend)","url":"https://vercel.com/api/ai/leaderboard-export?dataset=labs&modality=all&format=json"},{"name":"Calendar","columns":["dow"],"what":"Day of the week of the UTC day (Monday = 0).","why":"Weekday and weekend use of the gateway differ in who is building and with which models, which can shift the mix of spend.","source":"computed"},{"name":"Earlier Kalshi market median","columns":["kalshi"],"expert":true,"what":"The median Kalshi's KXANTHVSPEND market implied for each date, read as B is but one cycle earlier: for past days, at the cutoff two days before the date (the run day before the one whose first target date it is); for the forecast window, at the previous run day's cutoff, carried forward to the dates it does not reach. Kalshi lists even dates only, from about four days ahead, so that reading covers at most the run date and the next three days. A past day without a reading (odd dates, days before the market began in late September 2026, quotes that do not bracket the median) carries the day before's share. Without a reading for any day of the window, X_d has no such column. The reading at this run's cutoff, which is B, is not included.","why":"Traders with money at stake follow model launches, price changes and outages as they happen, which the history alone does not contain.","source":"Kalshi KXANTHVSPEND, one-minute candlesticks","url":"https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXANTHVSPEND"}]},"baseline":{"system":"kalshi-anthropic-spend","label":"Kalshi Anthropic spend-share market","name":"Median implied by Kalshi's KXANTHVSPEND market at the cutoff","kind":"point","visible_to_agents":true,"max_quote_spread":0.2,"method":"For each target date with a KXANTHVSPEND event open at the cutoff, the median its market implied then; the other target dates have no B. Kalshi lists an event for each even calendar date, such as KXANTHVSPEND-02NOV26, opening about four days ahead and closing at 23:59 ET on the date, so normally two of the seven target dates, both among the first four, have one. Its six to nine contracts \"above k%\" pay when the chart's value at 10:00 ET the next day, rounded to one decimal, exceeds k; that rounded value matched the export's on 19 of 20 settlements checked on 2026-11-03. Each contract's price at the cutoff is the midpoint of its best bid and ask in its last one-minute candlestick by then, used when both exist and are at most 0.20 apart, and is read as the probability that the share is at least k + 0.05. The prices are made non-increasing in k by pooling adjacent violators and joined linearly between quoted strikes; the point is the median, where they cross one half, and there is none when the quoted strikes do not bracket it. The median rather than the most probable bin: bins between strikes span 0.2 to 3.7 points, so the most probable one is often merely the widest, and the median is the point that minimises the absolute error a point forecast is scored on. The market trades in public, so the agents can see it during the run. It is recorded the next day from Kalshi's candlesticks.","source":{"name":"Kalshi KXANTHVSPEND, Anthropic Vercel spend share","url":"https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXANTHVSPEND"}},"horizons":[1,2,3,4,5,6,7],"quantiles":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9]},"status":{"live_since":"2026-11-04","latest_run":"2026-11-06","run_days":3,"next_run":"2026-11-08T16:45:00-05:00","last_observed":"2026-11-05"},"leaderboard":{"live":[{"system":"chronos-2","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.41760969381404106,"scaled_mae":0.6376076309977274,"crps":2.60930888888889,"mae":3.9838999999999984,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"chronos-2-expert","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.9049930824521911,"scaled_mae":1.0743094011075192,"crps":5.654577777777778,"mae":6.712499999999999,"coverage80":0.0},{"system":"chronos-2-univariate","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.3810814848009563,"scaled_mae":0.5785666271886309,"crps":2.381073333333334,"mae":3.615000000000002,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.2694287065786059,"scaled_mae":0.3673057840658114,"crps":1.6834444444444445,"mae":2.2950000000000017,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"seasonal-naive","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":1.0,"scaled_mae":1.0,"crps":6.248199999999997,"mae":6.248199999999997,"coverage80":null},{"system":"timesfm-3","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.351244980776686,"scaled_mae":0.5276719695272236,"crps":2.194648888888888,"mae":3.296999999999997,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"timesfm-3-expert","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":1.2052527127812815,"scaled_mae":1.2922281617105735,"crps":7.530659999999999,"mae":8.074100000000001,"coverage80":0.0},{"system":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","stopped":1,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.40087989785502676,"scaled_mae":0.6313818379693356,"crps":2.504777777777777,"mae":3.9450000000000003,"coverage80":1.0}],"mock":[]},"continual":[{"continual":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5-continual","fresh":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5","rows":[]},{"continual":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol-continual","fresh":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","rows":[{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.2694287065786059,"scaled_mae":0.3673057840658114,"crps":1.6834444444444445,"mae":2.2950000000000017,"coverage80":1.0}]}],"continual_tsfm":[],"by_horizon":{"live":[{"system":"chronos-2","horizon":1,"stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.41760969381404106,"scaled_mae":0.6376076309977274,"crps":2.60930888888889,"mae":3.9838999999999984,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"chronos-2-expert","horizon":1,"stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.9049930824521911,"scaled_mae":1.0743094011075192,"crps":5.654577777777778,"mae":6.712499999999999,"coverage80":0.0},{"system":"chronos-2-univariate","horizon":1,"stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.3810814848009563,"scaled_mae":0.5785666271886309,"crps":2.381073333333334,"mae":3.615000000000002,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","horizon":1,"stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.2694287065786059,"scaled_mae":0.3673057840658114,"crps":1.6834444444444445,"mae":2.2950000000000017,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"seasonal-naive","horizon":1,"stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":1.0,"scaled_mae":1.0,"crps":6.248199999999997,"mae":6.248199999999997,"coverage80":null},{"system":"timesfm-3","horizon":1,"stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.351244980776686,"scaled_mae":0.5276719695272236,"crps":2.194648888888888,"mae":3.296999999999997,"coverage80":1.0},{"system":"timesfm-3-expert","horizon":1,"stopped":0,"n":1,"scaled_crps":1.2052527127812815,"scaled_mae":1.2922281617105735,"crps":7.530659999999999,"mae":8.074100000000001,"coverage80":0.0},{"system":"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5","horizon":1,"stopped":1,"n":1,"scaled_crps":0.40087989785502676,"scaled_mae":0.6313818379693356,"crps":2.504777777777777,"mae":3.9450000000000003,"coverage80":1.0}],"mock":[]},"run_days":[{"run_date":"2026-11-06","resolved":0,"target_dates":7,"submitted":{"live":["chronos-2","chronos-2-expert","chronos-2-univariate","claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5","claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5-continual","codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol-continual","seasonal-naive","timesfm-3","timesfm-3-expert"],"mock":[]},"scores":{"live":{},"mock":{}},"materials":{"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5":{"files":1,"bytes":1393772},"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5-continual":{"files":1,"bytes":1393775},"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol":{"files":10,"bytes":11099399},"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol-continual":{"files":8,"bytes":11784378}}},{"run_date":"2026-11-05","resolved":0,"target_dates":7,"submitted":{"live":["chronos-2","chronos-2-univariate","claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5","claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5-continual","codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol","codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol-continual","kalshi-anthropic-spend","seasonal-naive","timesfm-3"],"mock":[]},"scores":{"live":{},"mock":{}},"materials":{"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5":{"files":1,"bytes":1382552},"claude-code-claude-sonnet-5-5-continual":{"files":1,"bytes":1382552},"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol":{"files":13,"bytes":13937848},"codex-cli-gpt-6.1-sol-continual":{"files":6,"bytes":10389477}}},{"run_date":"2026-11-04","resolved":1,"target_dat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share of Vercel AI Gateway spend","unit":"% of spend","definition":"Anthropic's share, in percent, of all spend through Vercel's AI Gateway on the target date, a UTC day: the field share_percent of the row with name \"anthropic\" and metric \"spend\" in the labs dataset (modality \"all\") of Vercel's AI Gateway leaderboard export, the data of the leaderboard's Spend chart, \"Share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs\". Every lab's share of the day is listed, and they sum to 100. Vercel documents neither what its spend measures nor the time zone of its days; UTC days are inferred, not documented. Source: Vercel AI Gateway leaderboard, labs, spend (open data, CC BY 4.0). The first value recorded for the date: the export's value, kept to its four decimals, read once a full day has passed since the date's UTC day ended, normally at the 16:45 ET run two days after the date. Vercel changes past values slightly afterwards (2026-09-26 read 35.3554 about 2026-11-01 and 35.3648 on 2026-11-03); later changes are not used."},"last_observed":"2026-11-05","known_covariates":["dow","kalshi"],"expert_covariates":["kalshi"],"past_covariates":[],"covariate_notes":{"target":"Anthropic's share, in percent, of all AI Gateway spend on the UTC day, from the labs leaderboard (spend) in Vercel's open-data export, for every day that had ended at least 12 hours before Vercel built the answer. A day missing between two such days is filled linearly","dow":"day of the week of the UTC day, Monday = 0","kalshi":"median of Kalshi's KXANTHVSPEND market for the day, read one cycle before B's own reading: for past days at the cutoff two days before, for the window at the previous run day's cutoff, carried forward to the days it does not reach; a past day without a reading carries the day before's share"}},"case_studies":[],"links":{"live_task":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/live/vercel_anthropic_spend_share","mock_tasks":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/mock/vercel_anthropic_spend_share","results":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/Chennzi/agentic-forecasting-results/tree/main/runs/vercel_anthropic_spend_share"}}
+{"id":"vercel_anthropic_spend_share","spec":{"target":"vercel_anthropic_spend_share","title":"Anthropic's share of Vercel AI Gateway spend","question":"What share of all spend on Vercel's AI Gateway will go to Anthropic's models on each of the next seven UTC days?","taxonomy":"economy/technology-adoption","driver":"behavioral","domain":"Technology adoption","region":"Global","unit":"% of spend","tradable":false,"summary":"Anthropic's share of all the money developers spend on AI models through Vercel's AI Gateway in one UTC day, as Vercel's public leaderboard of AI labs reports it. Which models developers and their coding tools choose moves it by several points from day to day and by tens of points over months; model releases, price changes and outages add information that history alone does not contain. Kalshi runs a market on the value of every even date, which gives the baseline. One of the agent configurations runs on an Anthropic model, so this target asks it to forecast its maker's market share.","y":{"definition":"Anthropic's share, in percent, of all spend through Vercel's AI Gateway on the target date, a UTC day: the field share_percent of the row with name \"anthropic\" and metric \"spend\" in the labs dataset (modality \"all\") of Vercel's AI Gateway leaderboard export, the data of the leaderboard's Spend chart, \"Share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs\". Every lab's share of the day is listed, and they sum to 100. Vercel documents neither what its spend measures nor the time zone of its days; UTC days are inferred, not documented.","settlement":"The first value recorded for the date: the export's value, kept to its four decimals, read once a full day has passed since the date's UTC day ended, normally at the 16:45 ET run two days after the date. Vercel changes past values slightly afterwards (2026-09-26 read 35.3554 about 2026-11-01 and 35.3648 on 2026-11-03); later changes are not used.","source":{"name":"Vercel AI Gateway leaderboard, labs, spend (open data, CC BY 4.0)","url":"https://vercel.com/ai-gateway/leaderboards/labs"}},"schedule":{"snapshot":"16:45","every_days":1,"first_run":"2026-11-04","timezone":"America/New_York","cutoff":"18:30"},"x":{"history_start":"2025-10-01","frequency":"daily, UTC days","given_to":"TSFMs only; agents find their own information","raw":["Every lab's daily share of AI Gateway spend in the export, for the days X_d uses","Kalshi's quotes for each contract at each reading of the Kalshi column"],"groups":[{"name":"Spend share history","columns":["target"],"what":"The target itself, every UTC day from 2025-10-01, the first day Vercel's export holds, up to the last day that had ended at least 12 hours before Vercel built the answer read at the snapshot: normally the day before the run date. A missing day is filled linearly.","why":"The share follows the models developers adopt over weeks, so the recent level and trend carry most of the signal; it also swings by several points from one day to the next.","source":"Vercel AI Gateway leaderboard export (labs, spend)","url":"https://vercel.com/api/ai/leaderboard-export?dataset=labs&modality=all&format=json"},{"name":"Calendar","columns":["dow"],"what":"Day of the week of the UTC day (Monday = 0).","why":"Weekday and weekend use of the gateway differ in who is building and with which models, which can shift the mix of spend.","source":"computed"},{"name":"Earlier Kalshi market median","columns":["kalshi"],"expert":true,"what":"The median Kalshi's KXANTHVSPEND market implied for each date, read as B is but one cycle earlier: for past days, at the cutoff two days before the date (the run day before the one whose first target date it is); for the forecast window, at the previous run day's cutoff, carried forward to the dates it does not reach. Kalshi lists even dates only, from about four days ahead, so that reading covers at most the run date and the next three days. A past day without a reading (odd dates, days before the market began in late September 2026, quotes that do not bracket the median) carries the day before's share. Without a reading for any day of the window, X_d has no such column. The reading at this run's cutoff, which is B, is not included.","why":"Traders with money at stake follow model launches, price changes and outages as they happen, which the history alone does not contain.","source":"Kalshi KXANTHVSPEND, one-minute candlesticks","url":"https://api.elections.kalshi.com/trade-api/v2/markets?series_ticker=KXANTHVSPEND"}]},"baseline":{"system":"kalshi-anthropic-spend","label":"Kalshi Anthropic spend-share market","name":"Median implied by Kalshi's KXANTHVSPEND market at the cutoff","kind":"point","visible_to_agents":true,"max_quote_spread":0.2,"method":"For each target date with a KXANTHVSPEND event open at the cutoff, the median its market implied then; the other target dates have no B. Kalshi lists an event for each even calendar date, such as KXANTHVSPEND-02NOV26, opening about four days ahead and closing at 23:59 ET on the date, so normally two of the seven target dates, both among the first four, have one. Its six to nine contracts \"above k%\" pay when the chart's value at 10:00 ET the next day, rounded to one decimal, exceeds k; that rounded value matched the export's on 19 of 20 settlements checked on 2026-11-03. Each contract's price at the cutoff is the midpoint of its best bid and ask in its last one-minute candlestick by then, used when both exist and are at most 0.20 apart, and is read as the probability that the share is at least k + 0.05. The prices are made non-increasing in k by pooling adjacent violators and joined linearly between quoted strikes; the point is the median, where they cross one half, and there is none when the quoted strikes do not bracket it. The median rather than the most probable bin: bins between strikes span 0.2 to 3.7 points, so the most probable one is often merely the widest, and the median is the point that minimises the absolute error a point forecast is scored on. The market trades in public, so the agents can see it during the run. It is recorded the next day from Kalshi's candlesticks.","source":{"name":"Kalshi KXANTHVSPEND, Anthropic Vercel spend 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"2026-10-04","value":36.0318},{"date":"2026-10-05","value":43.9912},{"date":"2026-10-06","value":44.1049},{"date":"2026-10-07","value":41.5403},{"date":"2026-10-08","value":41.3622},{"date":"2026-10-09","value":42.4779},{"date":"2026-10-10","value":35.2765},{"date":"2026-10-11","value":29.6456},{"date":"2026-10-12","value":39.5571},{"date":"2026-10-13","value":35.4047},{"date":"2026-10-14","value":40.1304},{"date":"2026-10-15","value":36.2865},{"date":"2026-10-16","value":37.1999},{"date":"2026-10-17","value":33.4368},{"date":"2026-10-18","value":30.4973},{"date":"2026-10-19","value":36.6057},{"date":"2026-10-20","value":30.4284},{"date":"2026-10-21","value":33.8504},{"date":"2026-10-22","value":34.984},{"date":"2026-10-23","value":37.3619},{"date":"2026-10-24","value":30.6562},{"date":"2026-10-25","value":30.0255},{"date":"2026-10-26","value":41.146},{"date":"2026-10-27","value":37.7787},{"date":"2026-10-28","value":30.5821},{"date":"2026-10-29","value":33.6968},{"date":"2026-10-30","value":31.7541},{"date":"2026-10-31","value":32.261},{"date":"2026-11-01","value":31.0593},{"date":"2026-11-02","value":35.2218},{"date":"2026-11-03","value":37.9673},{"date":"2026-11-04","value":47.7058},{"date":"2026-11-05","value":39.945}],"latest_x":{"run_date":"2026-11-07","cutoff":"2026-11-07T18:30:00-05:00","target_dates":["2026-11-08","2026-11-09","2026-11-10","2026-11-11","2026-11-12","2026-11-13","2026-11-14"],"quantile_levels":[0.1,0.2,0.3,0.4,0.5,0.6,0.7,0.8,0.9],"task":"vercel_anthropic_spend_share","target":{"name":"Anthropic's share of Vercel AI Gateway spend","unit":"% of spend","definition":"Anthropic's share, in percent, of all spend through Vercel's AI Gateway on the target date, a UTC day: the field share_percent of the row with name \"anthropic\" and metric \"spend\" in the labs dataset (modality \"all\") of Vercel's AI Gateway leaderboard export, the data of the leaderboard's Spend chart, \"Share of AI Gateway spend across the top labs\". Every lab's share of the day is listed, and they sum to 100. Vercel documents neither what its spend measures nor the time zone of its days; UTC days are inferred, not documented. Source: Vercel AI Gateway leaderboard, labs, spend (open data, CC BY 4.0). The first value recorded for the date: the export's value, kept to its four decimals, read once a full day has passed since the date's UTC day ended, normally at the 16:45 ET run two days after the date. Vercel changes past values slightly afterwards (2026-09-26 read 35.3554 about 2026-11-01 and 35.3648 on 2026-11-03); later changes are not used."},"last_observed":"2026-11-06","known_covariates":["dow","kalshi"],"expert_covariates":["kalshi"],"past_covariates":[],"covariate_notes":{"target":"Anthropic's share, in percent, of all AI Gateway spend on the UTC day, from the labs leaderboard (spend) in Vercel's open-data export, for every day that had ended at least 12 hours before Vercel built the answer. A day missing between two such days is filled linearly","dow":"day of the week of the UTC day, Monday = 0","kalshi":"median of Kalshi's KXANTHVSPEND market for the day, read one cycle before B's own reading: for past days at the cutoff two days before, for the window at the previous run day's cutoff, carried forward to the days it does not reach; a past day without a reading carries the day before's share"}},"case_studies":[],"links":{"live_task":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/live/vercel_anthropic_spend_share","mock_tasks":"https://github.com/rowingchenn/agentic-forecasting-tasks/tree/main/tasks/mock/vercel_anthropic_spend_share","results":"https://huggingface.co/datasets/Chennzi/agentic-forecasting-results/tree/main/runs/vercel_anthropic_spend_share"}}

site/tasks/vercel_anthropic_spend_share/2026-11-06.json

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