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Add independent Algorithm 1 cross-validation audit
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<title>Conditional coverage diagnostics — ICML 2026 reproduction</title>
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<div class="eyebrow">ICML 2026 · CPU reproduction · Algorithm 1</div>
<h1>Cross-fitting removes a false conditional-coverage violation</h1>
<p class="subtitle">Five seeds, three scales, four fold counts, an exact partition audit, and a no-cross-validation control make the anti-overfitting mechanism directly visible.</p>
<section class="metrics" aria-label="headline results">
<div class="metric"><b>270</b>recorded summary fields independently recomputed</div>
<div class="metric"><b>12 / 12</b>cross-fitted size/fold cells below |0.01|</div>
<div class="metric"><b>0.09735</b>largest no-CV inflation, observed at n=10,000</div>
<div class="metric"><b>3 / 3</b>deliberately broken checker controls rejected</div>
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<section class="cards">
<a class="card" data-logbook-target="claim-6">
<strong>Partitions match exactly</strong>
Five recorded test folds equal an independent seeded KFold split, are disjoint, cover every row, and never score a training row.
<span class="pill">Claim 6 · partition audit ↗</span>
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<a class="card" data-logbook-target="claim-6">
<strong>The negative control fails</strong>
Fitting and scoring the same rows creates <em>0.0407–0.0974</em> spurious L1-ERT even though the oracle truth is exactly zero.
<span class="pill">Claim 6 · no-CV control ↗</span>
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<a class="card" data-logbook-target="claim-6">
<strong>Cross-fitting repairs it</strong>
Every k in {2,3,5,10} stays below <em>|0.01|</em> at all three scales and improves by more than fivefold.
<span class="pill">Claim 6 · five-seed result ↗</span>
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<div class="foot">OpenReview vaApZm6MKM · seeds 0–4 · n=2,000/10,000/50,000 · 161.9 s full CPU stage · no GPU · Claims 2 and 5 remain honestly blocked by &gt;2h CPU · poster workflow: Chenruishuo/posterly.</div>
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