Precipitation tab with its fusion settings
Browse files
README.md
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Rank order shown for the 1-day forecast. The live board is authoritative and changes every day.
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**Two findings stand out.** Darwin-Prediction-Weather has the lowest error at every forecast lead, 14 to 38 percent below the next model. Among the models from national and international weather centres, the AI model ECMWF AIFS leads the physics-based ECMWF IFS at every lead, by 6 to 15 percent.
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## What the leaderboard shows
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For daily maximum temperature in 2026, the leading weather-centre model has an error of about 2.4 °C at 7 days, against about 1.35 °C at 1 day. Darwin-Prediction-Weather records about 2.1 °C at 7 days and 0.84 °C at 1 day.
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**What is Darwin-Prediction-Weather?**
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VIDRAFT's weather prediction system. Its forecast engine applies
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**How often is the leaderboard updated?**
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Once a day. New forecasts are archived, newly published observations are scored, and the cumulative record and the 10-day outlook are refreshed.
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Yes. The full daily record since 2026-01-01 is in [Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive](https://huggingface.co/datasets/FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive): one row per date, city and forecast lead, with the observed value and each model's forecast.
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**Which cities and variables are covered?**
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24 cities on six continents.
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## Data sources and attribution
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Rank order shown for the 1-day forecast. The live board is authoritative and changes every day.
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**All four elements, 2026 year to date.** Darwin-Prediction-Weather is No. 1 in every element at every lead (value in brackets: the next model, ECMWF AIFS).
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| Element | 1 day | 3 days | 5 days | 7 days |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Daily maximum temperature [°C] | **0.84** (1.35) | **1.17** (1.59) | **1.59** (1.90) | **2.09** (2.41) |
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| Daily minimum temperature [°C] | **0.91** (1.50) | **1.09** (1.63) | **1.42** (1.85) | **1.81** (2.17) |
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| Daily maximum wind speed [km/h] | **2.25** (3.60) | **2.70** (4.07) | **3.43** (4.76) | **4.39** (5.69) |
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| Daily precipitation total [mm] | **4.15** (4.33) | **5.18** (5.24) | **6.80** (6.99) | **7.11** (7.30) |
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**Two findings stand out.** Darwin-Prediction-Weather has the lowest error at every forecast lead, 14 to 38 percent below the next model. Among the models from national and international weather centres, the AI model ECMWF AIFS leads the physics-based ECMWF IFS at every lead, by 6 to 15 percent.
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## What the leaderboard shows
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For daily maximum temperature in 2026, the leading weather-centre model has an error of about 2.4 °C at 7 days, against about 1.35 °C at 1 day. Darwin-Prediction-Weather records about 2.1 °C at 7 days and 0.84 °C at 1 day.
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**What is Darwin-Prediction-Weather?**
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VIDRAFT's weather prediction system. Its forecast engine applies skill-weighted fusion to global forecasts, with local bias correction for temperature and wind. On the WeatherBench 2 deterministic protocol for 2020 it records the lowest error in all 15 evaluated cells (2 m temperature, 500 hPa geopotential, 850 hPa temperature at 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 days). See the [model page](https://huggingface.co/FINAL-Bench/Darwin-Prediction-Weather) and the [WeatherBench 2 forecast files](https://huggingface.co/datasets/VIDraft/Darwin-Prediction-Weather-WB2).
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**How often is the leaderboard updated?**
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Once a day. New forecasts are archived, newly published observations are scored, and the cumulative record and the 10-day outlook are refreshed.
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Yes. The full daily record since 2026-01-01 is in [Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive](https://huggingface.co/datasets/FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive): one row per date, city and forecast lead, with the observed value and each model's forecast.
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**Which cities and variables are covered?**
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24 cities on six continents. Four elements each have their own tab and ranking: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily maximum wind speed and daily precipitation total.
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## Data sources and attribution
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