SeaWolf-AI commited on
Commit
e963d1b
·
verified ·
1 Parent(s): a2bc37c

Precipitation tab with its fusion settings

Browse files
Files changed (1) hide show
  1. README.md +11 -2
README.md CHANGED
@@ -54,6 +54,15 @@ Root-mean-square error of the daily maximum 2 m temperature, in degrees Celsius,
54
 
55
  Rank order shown for the 1-day forecast. The live board is authoritative and changes every day.
56
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
57
  **Two findings stand out.** Darwin-Prediction-Weather has the lowest error at every forecast lead, 14 to 38 percent below the next model. Among the models from national and international weather centres, the AI model ECMWF AIFS leads the physics-based ECMWF IFS at every lead, by 6 to 15 percent.
58
 
59
  ## What the leaderboard shows
@@ -113,7 +122,7 @@ IFS is ECMWF's physics-based numerical model that solves atmospheric equations o
113
  For daily maximum temperature in 2026, the leading weather-centre model has an error of about 2.4 °C at 7 days, against about 1.35 °C at 1 day. Darwin-Prediction-Weather records about 2.1 °C at 7 days and 0.84 °C at 1 day.
114
 
115
  **What is Darwin-Prediction-Weather?**
116
- VIDRAFT's weather prediction system. Its forecast engine applies local bias correction and skill-weighted fusion to global forecasts. On the WeatherBench 2 deterministic protocol for 2020 it records the lowest error in all 15 evaluated cells (2 m temperature, 500 hPa geopotential, 850 hPa temperature at 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 days). See the [model page](https://huggingface.co/FINAL-Bench/Darwin-Prediction-Weather) and the [WeatherBench 2 forecast files](https://huggingface.co/datasets/VIDraft/Darwin-Prediction-Weather-WB2).
117
 
118
  **How often is the leaderboard updated?**
119
  Once a day. New forecasts are archived, newly published observations are scored, and the cumulative record and the 10-day outlook are refreshed.
@@ -122,7 +131,7 @@ Once a day. New forecasts are archived, newly published observations are scored,
122
  Yes. The full daily record since 2026-01-01 is in [Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive](https://huggingface.co/datasets/FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive): one row per date, city and forecast lead, with the observed value and each model's forecast.
123
 
124
  **Which cities and variables are covered?**
125
- 24 cities on six continents. Three elements each have their own tab and ranking: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature and daily maximum wind speed.
126
 
127
  ## Data sources and attribution
128
 
 
54
 
55
  Rank order shown for the 1-day forecast. The live board is authoritative and changes every day.
56
 
57
+ **All four elements, 2026 year to date.** Darwin-Prediction-Weather is No. 1 in every element at every lead (value in brackets: the next model, ECMWF AIFS).
58
+
59
+ | Element | 1 day | 3 days | 5 days | 7 days |
60
+ |---|---|---|---|---|
61
+ | Daily maximum temperature [°C] | **0.84** (1.35) | **1.17** (1.59) | **1.59** (1.90) | **2.09** (2.41) |
62
+ | Daily minimum temperature [°C] | **0.91** (1.50) | **1.09** (1.63) | **1.42** (1.85) | **1.81** (2.17) |
63
+ | Daily maximum wind speed [km/h] | **2.25** (3.60) | **2.70** (4.07) | **3.43** (4.76) | **4.39** (5.69) |
64
+ | Daily precipitation total [mm] | **4.15** (4.33) | **5.18** (5.24) | **6.80** (6.99) | **7.11** (7.30) |
65
+
66
  **Two findings stand out.** Darwin-Prediction-Weather has the lowest error at every forecast lead, 14 to 38 percent below the next model. Among the models from national and international weather centres, the AI model ECMWF AIFS leads the physics-based ECMWF IFS at every lead, by 6 to 15 percent.
67
 
68
  ## What the leaderboard shows
 
122
  For daily maximum temperature in 2026, the leading weather-centre model has an error of about 2.4 °C at 7 days, against about 1.35 °C at 1 day. Darwin-Prediction-Weather records about 2.1 °C at 7 days and 0.84 °C at 1 day.
123
 
124
  **What is Darwin-Prediction-Weather?**
125
+ VIDRAFT's weather prediction system. Its forecast engine applies skill-weighted fusion to global forecasts, with local bias correction for temperature and wind. On the WeatherBench 2 deterministic protocol for 2020 it records the lowest error in all 15 evaluated cells (2 m temperature, 500 hPa geopotential, 850 hPa temperature at 1, 3, 5, 7 and 10 days). See the [model page](https://huggingface.co/FINAL-Bench/Darwin-Prediction-Weather) and the [WeatherBench 2 forecast files](https://huggingface.co/datasets/VIDraft/Darwin-Prediction-Weather-WB2).
126
 
127
  **How often is the leaderboard updated?**
128
  Once a day. New forecasts are archived, newly published observations are scored, and the cumulative record and the 10-day outlook are refreshed.
 
131
  Yes. The full daily record since 2026-01-01 is in [Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive](https://huggingface.co/datasets/FINAL-Bench/Weather-Model-Forecast-Archive): one row per date, city and forecast lead, with the observed value and each model's forecast.
132
 
133
  **Which cities and variables are covered?**
134
+ 24 cities on six continents. Four elements each have their own tab and ranking: daily maximum temperature, daily minimum temperature, daily maximum wind speed and daily precipitation total.
135
 
136
  ## Data sources and attribution
137