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app.py
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"""
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Bitcoin Market Signal Engine — Semi-Institutional Adaptive Quant Engine
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========================================================================
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Hugging Face Spaces · Gradio UI (unchanged from v1)
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Architecture:
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Part 1 — Time Decay Weighting
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Part 2 — Source Quality Weighting
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Part 3 — Market Regime Detection
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Part 4 — Volatility-Adjusted Threshold
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Part 5 — Technical Confluence Filter
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Part 6 — On-Chain Bias
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Part 7 — Confidence & Dominance Metrics
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Part 8 — Sentiment Divergence Detection
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Part 9 — Online Learning / Weight Persistence
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Final — Signal Assembly & JSON Output
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import json
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import math
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import re
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import statistics
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import traceback
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from datetime import datetime, timezone
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from email.utils import parsedate_to_datetime
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from pathlib import Path
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import feedparser
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import gradio as gr
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import
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from
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#
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#
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#
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"https://news.google.com/rss/search"
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"?q=Bitcoin&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en"
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)
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SOURCE_WEIGHTS: dict[str, float] = {
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"bloomberg": 1.30,
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"reuters": 1.25,
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"coindesk": 1.15,
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}
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SIGNAL_HISTORY_FILE = Path("signal_history.json")
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# Model (loaded once at startup)
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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"
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model="distilbert-base-uncased-finetuned-sst-2-english",
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device=-1, # CPU; set to 0 if GPU available
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truncation=True,
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max_length=512,
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)
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print("Model ready.")
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# Preprocessing
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def preprocess(text: str) -> str:
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text = text.replace("%", "percent").replace("$", "USD")
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text = re.sub(r"[^a-zA-Z0-9 ]", " ", text)
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return re.sub(r"\s+", " ", text).strip().lower()
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# Part 1 — Time Decay Weighting
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def compute_time_weight(published: str | None) -> float | None:
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"""
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weight = exp(-age_hours / 6).
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Returns None → ignore headline (unrecoverable parse failure).
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Returns 0.5 → published missing/empty.
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"""
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if not published:
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return 0.5
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for parser in (
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parsedate_to_datetime,
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lambda s: datetime.fromisoformat(s),
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):
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try:
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dt = parser(published)
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if dt.tzinfo is None:
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dt = dt.replace(tzinfo=timezone.utc)
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age_h = max((datetime.now(timezone.utc) - dt).total_seconds() / 3600, 0)
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return math.exp(-age_h / 6)
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except Exception:
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continue
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return None # both parsers failed → drop headline
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# Part 2 — Source Quality Weighting
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def compute_source_weight(source_name: str | None) -> float:
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if not source_name:
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return 1.0
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name_lower = source_name.lower()
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for key, w in SOURCE_WEIGHTS.items():
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if key in name_lower:
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return w
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return 1.0
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# RSS Fetch + Classify
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def fetch_headlines(max_items: int = 30) -> list[dict]:
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feed = feedparser.parse(RSS_URL)
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entries = feed.entries[:max_items]
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if not entries:
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raise ValueError("RSS feed returned no items.")
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results = []
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for e in entries:
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source = (
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getattr(getattr(e, "source", None), "title", None)
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or e.get("source", {}).get("title", "")
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)
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results.append({
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"raw": e.get("title", ""),
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"link": e.get("link", ""),
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"published": e.get("published", ""),
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"source": source,
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})
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return results
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def classify_headlines(headlines: list[dict]) -> list[dict]:
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"""
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Run DistilBERT → apply Parts 1 & 2 → return scored list.
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Headlines with unrecoverable timestamps are dropped.
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"""
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cleaned = [preprocess(h["raw"]) for h in headlines]
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raw_preds = sentiment_pipe(cleaned, batch_size=16)
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scored = []
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for h, pred in zip(headlines, raw_preds):
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label = pred["label"]
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confidence = float(pred["score"])
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numeric = confidence if label == "POSITIVE" else -confidence
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time_w = compute_time_weight(h.get("published"))
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if time_w is None:
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continue # drop
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source_w = compute_source_weight(h.get("source"))
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final_score = numeric * time_w * source_w
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scored.append({
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**h,
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"clean": preprocess(h["raw"]),
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"label": label,
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"confidence": round(confidence, 6),
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"numeric_score": round(numeric, 6),
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"time_weight": round(time_w, 6),
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"source_weight": source_w,
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"final_score": round(final_score, 6),
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})
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return scored
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# Part 3 — Market Regime Detection
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def _ema(arr: np.ndarray, period: int) -> np.ndarray:
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out = np.empty(len(arr))
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out[0] = arr[:period].mean() if len(arr) >= period else arr[0]
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k = 2 / (period + 1)
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for i in range(1, len(arr)):
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out[i] = arr[i] * k + out[i - 1] * (1 - k)
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return out
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def detect_regime(price_df: pd.DataFrame | None) -> dict:
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BASE = 0.05
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empty = {"regime": "UNKNOWN", "adx": None, "atr": None,
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"ema200_slope": None, "threshold": BASE}
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if price_df is None or len(price_df) < 50:
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return empty
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df = price_df.copy()
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df.columns = [c.lower() for c in df.columns]
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high, low, close = df["high"].values, df["low"].values, df["close"].values
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n = 14
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tr = np.maximum(high[1:] - low[1:],
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np.maximum(np.abs(high[1:] - close[:-1]),
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np.abs(low[1:] - close[:-1])))
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plus_dm = np.where((high[1:] - high[:-1]) > (low[:-1] - low[1:]),
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np.maximum(high[1:] - high[:-1], 0), 0.0)
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minus_dm = np.where((low[:-1] - low[1:]) > (high[1:] - high[:-1]),
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np.maximum(low[:-1] - low[1:], 0), 0.0)
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atr14 = _ema(tr, n)
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plus_di = 100 * _ema(plus_dm, n) / (atr14 + 1e-9)
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minus_di = 100 * _ema(minus_dm, n) / (atr14 + 1e-9)
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dx = 100 * np.abs(plus_di - minus_di) / (plus_di + minus_di + 1e-9)
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adx = float(_ema(dx, n)[-1])
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atr = float(atr14[-1])
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high_vol = atr >= float(np.percentile(atr14, 80))
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ema200_slope = 0.0
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if len(close) >= 200:
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e200 = _ema(close[-200:], 200)
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ema200_slope = float(e200[-1] - e200[-5])
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if adx > 25:
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regime, threshold = "TRENDING", BASE
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elif adx < 20:
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regime, threshold = "RANGING", 0.08
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else:
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regime, threshold = "NEUTRAL_REGIME", BASE
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if high_vol:
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regime = f"{regime}+HIGH_VOL"
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threshold += 0.03
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return {"regime": regime, "adx": round(adx, 4), "atr": round(atr, 4),
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"ema200_slope": round(ema200_slope, 6), "threshold": round(threshold, 4)}
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# Part 4 — Volatility-Adjusted Threshold
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def compute_dynamic_threshold(price_df: pd.DataFrame | None,
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regime_threshold: float) -> dict:
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if price_df is None or len(price_df) < 30:
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return {"realized_volatility": None,
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"dynamic_threshold": regime_threshold,
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"final_threshold": regime_threshold}
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close = price_df["close"].values[-30:]
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log_ret = np.diff(np.log(close + 1e-9))
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real_vol = float(np.std(log_ret) * math.sqrt(365))
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dynamic = max(0.05, min(0.15, 0.05 + real_vol * 0.2))
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final = max(regime_threshold, dynamic)
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return {"realized_volatility": round(real_vol, 6),
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"dynamic_threshold": round(dynamic, 4),
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"final_threshold": round(final, 4)}
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# Part 5 — Technical Confluence Filter
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def apply_technical_confluence(raw_signal: str, confidence: float,
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price_df: pd.DataFrame | None,
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funding_rate: float | None = None) -> dict:
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if price_df is None or len(price_df) < 50:
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return {"confirmed_signal": raw_signal, "confidence": round(confidence, 4),
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"rsi": None, "ema200": None,
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"confluence_notes": ["No price data — confluence skipped"]}
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df = price_df.copy()
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df.columns = [c.lower() for c in df.columns]
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close = df["close"].values
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volume = df["volume"].values if "volume" in df.columns else None
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# RSI(14)
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delta = np.diff(close)
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gain = np.where(delta > 0, delta, 0.0)
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loss = np.where(delta < 0, -delta, 0.0)
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avg_gain = float(np.convolve(gain, np.ones(14) / 14, "valid")[-1])
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avg_loss = float(np.convolve(loss, np.ones(14) / 14, "valid")[-1])
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rsi = 100 - (100 / (1 + avg_gain / (avg_loss + 1e-9)))
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# EMA200
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if len(close) >= 200:
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k = 2 / 201
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ema200 = close[-200]
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for p in close[-199:]:
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ema200 = p * k + ema200 * (1 - k)
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else:
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ema200 = float(np.mean(close))
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price_now = float(close[-1])
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notes = [f"RSI(14)={rsi:.2f}", f"EMA200={ema200:.2f}", f"Price={price_now:.2f}"]
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confirmed = raw_signal
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if raw_signal == "LONG" and not (rsi < 45 and price_now > ema200):
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confirmed = "NEUTRAL"
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notes.append("LONG suppressed: RSI/EMA200 not met")
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elif raw_signal == "SHORT" and not (rsi > 55 and price_now < ema200):
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confirmed = "NEUTRAL"
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notes.append("SHORT suppressed: RSI/EMA200 not met")
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if confirmed != "NEUTRAL":
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if volume is not None and len(volume) >= 21:
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avg_vol = float(np.mean(volume[-21:-1]))
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if volume[-1] > 1.5 * avg_vol:
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confidence += 0.15
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notes.append("+0.15: volume spike")
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if funding_rate is not None:
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if confirmed == "LONG" and funding_rate < -0.01:
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confidence += 0.10
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notes.append("+0.10: extreme negative funding (contrarian bullish)")
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elif confirmed == "SHORT" and funding_rate > 0.01:
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confidence += 0.10
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notes.append("+0.10: extreme positive funding (contrarian bearish)")
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return {"confirmed_signal": confirmed, "confidence": round(min(confidence, 1.0), 4),
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"rsi": round(rsi, 4), "ema200": round(ema200, 4), "confluence_notes": notes}
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# ═══════════════════════════���═══════════════════════════════════════════════════
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# Part 6 — On-Chain Bias
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# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
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def compute_onchain_bias(onchain: dict | None) -> dict:
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if not onchain:
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return {"onchain_bias": "NEUTRAL", "onchain_notes": ["No on-chain data"]}
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inflow = onchain.get("exchange_inflow", 0)
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outflow = onchain.get("exchange_outflow", 0)
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avg_in = onchain.get("avg_inflow", 1)
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avg_out = onchain.get("avg_outflow", 1)
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bearish = bullish = 0
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notes: list[str] = []
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notes.append("Inflow spike >2x avg → bearish")
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if avg_out > 0 and outflow > 2 * avg_out:
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bullish += 1
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notes.append("Outflow spike >2x avg → bullish")
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if bearish > 0 and bullish > 0:
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bias = "CONFLICT"
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notes.append("Conflict → NEUTRAL override")
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elif bearish > 0:
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bias = "BEARISH"
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elif bullish > 0:
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bias = "BULLISH"
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else:
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bias = "NEUTRAL"
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bull_count = sum(1 for s in scores if s > 0)
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bear_count = sum(1 for s in scores if s < 0)
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bull_dom = bull_count / n * 100 if n else 0.0
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| 375 |
-
bear_dom = bear_count / n * 100 if n else 0.0
|
| 376 |
-
|
| 377 |
-
labels = [s["label"] for s in scored]
|
| 378 |
-
entropy = 0.0
|
| 379 |
-
for lbl in set(labels):
|
| 380 |
-
p = labels.count(lbl) / n
|
| 381 |
-
if p > 0:
|
| 382 |
-
entropy -= p * math.log2(p)
|
| 383 |
-
|
| 384 |
-
if avg_score > 0.08 and bull_dom > 65:
|
| 385 |
-
strength = "STRONG LONG"
|
| 386 |
-
elif avg_score > threshold:
|
| 387 |
-
strength = "WEAK LONG"
|
| 388 |
-
elif avg_score < -0.08 and bear_dom > 65:
|
| 389 |
-
strength = "STRONG SHORT"
|
| 390 |
-
elif avg_score < -threshold:
|
| 391 |
-
strength = "WEAK SHORT"
|
| 392 |
-
else:
|
| 393 |
-
strength = "NEUTRAL"
|
| 394 |
-
|
| 395 |
-
risk = ("HIGH" if std_dev > 0.3 or entropy > 0.95
|
| 396 |
-
else "MEDIUM" if std_dev > 0.15 else "LOW")
|
| 397 |
-
|
| 398 |
-
return {"signal_strength": strength, "risk_level": risk,
|
| 399 |
-
"bull_dominance_pct": round(bull_dom, 2),
|
| 400 |
-
"bear_dominance_pct": round(bear_dom, 2),
|
| 401 |
-
"score_std_dev": round(std_dev, 6),
|
| 402 |
-
"entropy": round(entropy, 6)}
|
| 403 |
-
|
| 404 |
-
|
| 405 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 406 |
-
# Part 8 — Sentiment Divergence Detection
|
| 407 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 408 |
-
|
| 409 |
-
def detect_divergence(price_df: pd.DataFrame | None,
|
| 410 |
-
sentiment_history: list[float]) -> dict:
|
| 411 |
-
no_div = {"divergence_type": "NONE", "early_reversal_warning": False,
|
| 412 |
-
"divergence_notes": []}
|
| 413 |
-
|
| 414 |
-
if price_df is None or len(price_df) < 10:
|
| 415 |
-
return {**no_div, "divergence_notes": ["Insufficient price data"]}
|
| 416 |
-
if len(sentiment_history) < 2:
|
| 417 |
-
return {**no_div, "divergence_notes": ["Need ≥2 sentiment history points"]}
|
| 418 |
-
|
| 419 |
-
close = price_df["close"].values[-10:]
|
| 420 |
-
price_trend = float(close[-1]) - float(close[0])
|
| 421 |
-
sent_trend = sentiment_history[-1] - sentiment_history[0]
|
| 422 |
-
notes = [f"Price Δ={price_trend:+.4f}", f"Sentiment Δ={sent_trend:+.4f}"]
|
| 423 |
-
|
| 424 |
-
if price_trend < 0 and sent_trend > 0:
|
| 425 |
-
return {"divergence_type": "BULLISH_DIVERGENCE", "early_reversal_warning": True,
|
| 426 |
-
"divergence_notes": notes + ["Lower lows + improving sentiment → bullish reversal"]}
|
| 427 |
-
if price_trend > 0 and sent_trend < 0:
|
| 428 |
-
return {"divergence_type": "BEARISH_DIVERGENCE", "early_reversal_warning": True,
|
| 429 |
-
"divergence_notes": notes + ["Higher highs + declining sentiment → bearish reversal"]}
|
| 430 |
-
|
| 431 |
-
return {**no_div, "divergence_notes": notes}
|
| 432 |
-
|
| 433 |
-
|
| 434 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 435 |
-
# Part 9 — Online Learning / Weight Persistence
|
| 436 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 437 |
-
|
| 438 |
-
def load_model_weight() -> float:
|
| 439 |
-
try:
|
| 440 |
-
if WEIGHT_FILE.exists():
|
| 441 |
-
return float(max(0.5, min(2.0,
|
| 442 |
-
json.loads(WEIGHT_FILE.read_text()).get("model_weight", 1.0))))
|
| 443 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 444 |
-
pass
|
| 445 |
-
return 1.0
|
| 446 |
-
|
| 447 |
-
|
| 448 |
-
def save_model_weight(w: float) -> None:
|
| 449 |
-
try:
|
| 450 |
-
WEIGHT_FILE.write_text(json.dumps({"model_weight": round(w, 6)}))
|
| 451 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 452 |
-
pass
|
| 453 |
-
|
| 454 |
-
|
| 455 |
-
def record_signal(direction: str, price: float | None) -> None:
|
| 456 |
-
try:
|
| 457 |
-
history: list[dict] = []
|
| 458 |
-
if SIGNAL_HISTORY_FILE.exists():
|
| 459 |
-
history = json.loads(SIGNAL_HISTORY_FILE.read_text())
|
| 460 |
-
history.append({"timestamp": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
|
| 461 |
-
"predicted_direction": direction,
|
| 462 |
-
"price_at_signal": price,
|
| 463 |
-
"evaluated": False})
|
| 464 |
-
SIGNAL_HISTORY_FILE.write_text(json.dumps(history[-200:], indent=2))
|
| 465 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 466 |
-
pass
|
| 467 |
-
|
| 468 |
-
|
| 469 |
-
def evaluate_past_signals(current_price: float | None) -> float:
|
| 470 |
-
weight = load_model_weight()
|
| 471 |
-
if current_price is None or not SIGNAL_HISTORY_FILE.exists():
|
| 472 |
-
return weight
|
| 473 |
-
try:
|
| 474 |
-
history: list[dict] = json.loads(SIGNAL_HISTORY_FILE.read_text())
|
| 475 |
-
now = datetime.now(timezone.utc)
|
| 476 |
-
updated = False
|
| 477 |
-
for rec in history:
|
| 478 |
-
if rec.get("evaluated"):
|
| 479 |
-
continue
|
| 480 |
-
try:
|
| 481 |
-
age_h = (now - datetime.fromisoformat(rec["timestamp"])).total_seconds() / 3600
|
| 482 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 483 |
-
continue
|
| 484 |
-
if age_h < 6 or rec.get("price_at_signal") is None:
|
| 485 |
-
continue
|
| 486 |
-
direction = rec.get("predicted_direction", "NEUTRAL")
|
| 487 |
-
delta = current_price - float(rec["price_at_signal"])
|
| 488 |
-
correct = (direction == "LONG" and delta > 0) or (direction == "SHORT" and delta < 0)
|
| 489 |
-
weight = max(0.5, min(2.0, weight * (1.01 if correct else 0.99)))
|
| 490 |
-
rec["evaluated"] = True
|
| 491 |
-
updated = True
|
| 492 |
-
if updated:
|
| 493 |
-
SIGNAL_HISTORY_FILE.write_text(json.dumps(history[-200:], indent=2))
|
| 494 |
-
save_model_weight(weight)
|
| 495 |
-
except Exception:
|
| 496 |
-
pass
|
| 497 |
-
return weight
|
| 498 |
-
|
| 499 |
-
|
| 500 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 501 |
-
# Weighted Average
|
| 502 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 503 |
-
|
| 504 |
-
def compute_weighted_average(scored: list[dict]) -> float:
|
| 505 |
-
total_w = sum(abs(s["time_weight"] * s["source_weight"]) for s in scored)
|
| 506 |
-
if total_w == 0:
|
| 507 |
-
return 0.0
|
| 508 |
-
return sum(s["final_score"] * abs(s["time_weight"] * s["source_weight"])
|
| 509 |
-
for s in scored) / total_w
|
| 510 |
-
|
| 511 |
-
|
| 512 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 513 |
-
# Final Signal Assembly
|
| 514 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 515 |
-
|
| 516 |
-
def assemble_signal(scored: list[dict],
|
| 517 |
-
price_df: pd.DataFrame | None = None,
|
| 518 |
-
onchain: dict | None = None,
|
| 519 |
-
funding_rate: float | None = None,
|
| 520 |
-
sentiment_history: list[float] | None = None,
|
| 521 |
-
current_price: float | None = None) -> dict:
|
| 522 |
-
|
| 523 |
-
# Parts 3 & 4 — Regime + Threshold
|
| 524 |
-
regime_info = detect_regime(price_df)
|
| 525 |
-
vol_info = compute_dynamic_threshold(price_df, regime_info["threshold"])
|
| 526 |
-
final_threshold = vol_info["final_threshold"]
|
| 527 |
-
|
| 528 |
-
# Weighted score (Parts 1+2 already in final_score)
|
| 529 |
-
avg_score = compute_weighted_average(scored)
|
| 530 |
-
|
| 531 |
-
# Part 9 — Online learning
|
| 532 |
-
model_weight = evaluate_past_signals(current_price)
|
| 533 |
-
adjusted_score = avg_score * model_weight
|
| 534 |
-
|
| 535 |
-
# Raw signal
|
| 536 |
-
if adjusted_score > final_threshold:
|
| 537 |
-
raw_signal = "LONG"
|
| 538 |
-
elif adjusted_score < -final_threshold:
|
| 539 |
-
raw_signal = "SHORT"
|
| 540 |
-
else:
|
| 541 |
-
raw_signal = "NEUTRAL"
|
| 542 |
-
|
| 543 |
-
# Part 7 — Dominance
|
| 544 |
-
dominance = compute_dominance_metrics(scored, adjusted_score, final_threshold)
|
| 545 |
-
raw_conf = min(abs(adjusted_score) / (final_threshold + 1e-9), 1.0)
|
| 546 |
-
|
| 547 |
-
# Part 5 — Confluence
|
| 548 |
-
confluence = apply_technical_confluence(raw_signal, raw_conf, price_df, funding_rate)
|
| 549 |
-
confirmed_signal = confluence["confirmed_signal"]
|
| 550 |
-
confidence_score = confluence["confidence"]
|
| 551 |
-
|
| 552 |
-
# Part 6 — On-chain
|
| 553 |
-
onchain_result = compute_onchain_bias(onchain)
|
| 554 |
-
onchain_bias = onchain_result["onchain_bias"]
|
| 555 |
-
if onchain_bias == "CONFLICT":
|
| 556 |
-
confirmed_signal = "NEUTRAL"
|
| 557 |
-
|
| 558 |
-
# Part 8 — Divergence
|
| 559 |
-
hist = sentiment_history or [avg_score]
|
| 560 |
-
divergence = detect_divergence(price_df, hist)
|
| 561 |
-
|
| 562 |
-
# Record for future evaluation
|
| 563 |
-
price_now = (float(price_df["close"].values[-1])
|
| 564 |
-
if price_df is not None and len(price_df) > 0 else current_price)
|
| 565 |
-
record_signal(confirmed_signal, price_now)
|
| 566 |
-
|
| 567 |
-
# Explanation
|
| 568 |
-
explanation = " | ".join([
|
| 569 |
-
f"Signal={confirmed_signal} (raw={raw_signal})",
|
| 570 |
-
f"WeightedScore={adjusted_score:.4f} threshold=±{final_threshold}",
|
| 571 |
-
f"Regime={regime_info['regime']} ADX={regime_info['adx']}",
|
| 572 |
-
f"RealVol={vol_info['realized_volatility']} dynThresh={vol_info['dynamic_threshold']}",
|
| 573 |
-
f"ModelWeight={model_weight:.4f} Strength={dominance['signal_strength']}",
|
| 574 |
-
f"OnChain={onchain_bias}",
|
| 575 |
-
f"Divergence={divergence['divergence_type']}",
|
| 576 |
-
f"Risk={dominance['risk_level']} Confidence={confidence_score:.4f}",
|
| 577 |
-
*(confluence.get("confluence_notes") or []),
|
| 578 |
-
*(["⚠ " + divergence["divergence_type"]] if divergence["early_reversal_warning"] else []),
|
| 579 |
-
])
|
| 580 |
-
|
| 581 |
-
return {
|
| 582 |
-
# — Core spec-required fields —
|
| 583 |
-
"timestamp": datetime.now(timezone.utc).isoformat(),
|
| 584 |
-
"headline_count": len(scored),
|
| 585 |
-
"regime": regime_info["regime"],
|
| 586 |
-
"dynamic_threshold": final_threshold,
|
| 587 |
-
"weighted_average_score": round(adjusted_score, 6),
|
| 588 |
-
"final_signal": confirmed_signal,
|
| 589 |
-
"signal_strength": dominance["signal_strength"],
|
| 590 |
-
"confidence_score": confidence_score,
|
| 591 |
-
"risk_level": dominance["risk_level"],
|
| 592 |
-
"onchain_bias": onchain_bias,
|
| 593 |
-
"divergence_type": divergence["divergence_type"],
|
| 594 |
-
"early_reversal_warning": divergence["early_reversal_warning"],
|
| 595 |
-
"explanation_string": explanation,
|
| 596 |
-
# — Extended diagnostics —
|
| 597 |
-
"model_weight": round(model_weight, 6),
|
| 598 |
-
"realized_volatility": vol_info["realized_volatility"],
|
| 599 |
-
"adx": regime_info["adx"],
|
| 600 |
-
"atr": regime_info["atr"],
|
| 601 |
-
"ema200_slope": regime_info["ema200_slope"],
|
| 602 |
-
"bull_dominance_pct": dominance["bull_dominance_pct"],
|
| 603 |
-
"bear_dominance_pct": dominance["bear_dominance_pct"],
|
| 604 |
-
"score_std_dev": dominance["score_std_dev"],
|
| 605 |
-
"entropy": dominance["entropy"],
|
| 606 |
-
"onchain_notes": onchain_result["onchain_notes"],
|
| 607 |
-
"divergence_notes": divergence["divergence_notes"],
|
| 608 |
-
"confluence_notes": confluence.get("confluence_notes", []),
|
| 609 |
-
"top_positive_headlines": [s["raw"] for s in
|
| 610 |
-
sorted(scored, key=lambda x: x["final_score"], reverse=True)
|
| 611 |
-
if s["final_score"] > 0][:5],
|
| 612 |
-
"top_negative_headlines": [s["raw"] for s in
|
| 613 |
-
sorted(scored, key=lambda x: x["final_score"])
|
| 614 |
-
if s["final_score"] < 0][:5],
|
| 615 |
-
}
|
| 616 |
-
|
| 617 |
-
|
| 618 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 619 |
-
# Gradio Handler (UI unchanged from v1)
|
| 620 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 621 |
-
|
| 622 |
-
def run_analysis(max_headlines: int, show_detail: bool) -> tuple:
|
| 623 |
-
try:
|
| 624 |
-
headlines = fetch_headlines(int(max_headlines))
|
| 625 |
-
scored = classify_headlines(headlines)
|
| 626 |
-
|
| 627 |
-
if not scored:
|
| 628 |
-
return "", "", [], "No scoreable headlines after filtering."
|
| 629 |
-
|
| 630 |
-
result = assemble_signal(
|
| 631 |
-
scored,
|
| 632 |
-
price_df=None, # inject real pd.DataFrame(OHLCV) here
|
| 633 |
-
onchain=None, # inject on-chain dict here
|
| 634 |
-
funding_rate=None, # inject float here
|
| 635 |
-
sentiment_history=None,
|
| 636 |
-
current_price=None,
|
| 637 |
-
)
|
| 638 |
-
|
| 639 |
-
signal_md = (
|
| 640 |
-
f"## Signal: **{result['final_signal']}** ({result['signal_strength']})\n\n"
|
| 641 |
-
f"- **Weighted avg score:** `{result['weighted_average_score']}`\n"
|
| 642 |
-
f"- **Confidence:** `{result['confidence_score']}` "
|
| 643 |
-
f"**Risk:** `{result['risk_level']}`\n"
|
| 644 |
-
f"- **Regime:** `{result['regime']}` "
|
| 645 |
-
f"**Threshold:** `{result['dynamic_threshold']}`\n"
|
| 646 |
-
f"- **On-chain bias:** `{result['onchain_bias']}` "
|
| 647 |
-
f"**Divergence:** `{result['divergence_type']}`\n"
|
| 648 |
-
f"- **Model weight:** `{result['model_weight']}` "
|
| 649 |
-
f"**Headlines:** {result['headline_count']}\n"
|
| 650 |
-
f"- **Timestamp:** {result['timestamp']}\n\n"
|
| 651 |
-
f"> {result['explanation_string']}"
|
| 652 |
-
)
|
| 653 |
-
|
| 654 |
-
core_keys = [
|
| 655 |
-
"timestamp", "headline_count", "regime", "dynamic_threshold",
|
| 656 |
-
"weighted_average_score", "final_signal", "signal_strength",
|
| 657 |
-
"confidence_score", "risk_level", "onchain_bias",
|
| 658 |
-
"divergence_type", "early_reversal_warning", "explanation_string",
|
| 659 |
-
"top_positive_headlines", "top_negative_headlines",
|
| 660 |
-
]
|
| 661 |
-
json_out = json.dumps({k: result[k] for k in core_keys}, indent=2)
|
| 662 |
-
|
| 663 |
-
detail_rows = []
|
| 664 |
-
if show_detail:
|
| 665 |
-
detail_rows = [
|
| 666 |
-
[
|
| 667 |
-
i + 1,
|
| 668 |
-
s["label"],
|
| 669 |
-
f"{s['numeric_score']:+.4f}",
|
| 670 |
-
f"{s['time_weight']:.4f}",
|
| 671 |
-
f"{s['source_weight']:.2f}",
|
| 672 |
-
f"{s['final_score']:+.4f}",
|
| 673 |
-
s.get("source") or "—",
|
| 674 |
-
s["raw"][:110],
|
| 675 |
-
]
|
| 676 |
-
for i, s in enumerate(scored)
|
| 677 |
-
]
|
| 678 |
-
|
| 679 |
-
return signal_md, json_out, detail_rows, ""
|
| 680 |
-
|
| 681 |
-
except Exception as exc:
|
| 682 |
-
return "", "", [], f"Error: {exc}\n{traceback.format_exc()}"
|
| 683 |
-
|
| 684 |
-
|
| 685 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 686 |
-
# Gradio UI (structure unchanged from v1)
|
| 687 |
-
# ═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
|
| 688 |
-
|
| 689 |
-
with gr.Blocks(
|
| 690 |
-
title="Bitcoin Market Signal Engine v2",
|
| 691 |
-
theme=gr.themes.Monochrome(),
|
| 692 |
-
css="""
|
| 693 |
-
#signal-md { font-size: 1.15rem; }
|
| 694 |
-
#json-box textarea { font-family: monospace; font-size: 0.82rem; }
|
| 695 |
-
footer { display: none !important; }
|
| 696 |
-
""",
|
| 697 |
-
) as demo:
|
| 698 |
-
|
| 699 |
-
gr.Markdown(
|
| 700 |
-
"""
|
| 701 |
-
# ₿ Bitcoin Market Signal Engine · v2 — Adaptive Quant Edition
|
| 702 |
-
DistilBERT NLP · Time decay · Source quality · Regime detection ·
|
| 703 |
-
Technical confluence · On-chain bias · Divergence · Online learning
|
| 704 |
-
"""
|
| 705 |
)
|
| 706 |
|
| 707 |
-
|
| 708 |
-
max_h = gr.Slider(5, 30, value=20, step=1, label="Max headlines to fetch")
|
| 709 |
-
show_d = gr.Checkbox(value=True, label="Show per-headline detail table")
|
| 710 |
-
run_btn = gr.Button("▶ Run Analysis", variant="primary")
|
| 711 |
|
| 712 |
-
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 713 |
|
| 714 |
-
|
| 715 |
-
label="JSON Output (spec-compliant)",
|
| 716 |
-
language="json",
|
| 717 |
-
elem_id="json-box",
|
| 718 |
-
)
|
| 719 |
-
|
| 720 |
-
detail_tbl = gr.Dataframe(
|
| 721 |
-
headers=["#", "Label", "NLP Score", "Time W",
|
| 722 |
-
"Source W", "Final Score", "Source", "Headline"],
|
| 723 |
-
label="Headline Sentiment Detail",
|
| 724 |
-
wrap=True,
|
| 725 |
-
)
|
| 726 |
|
| 727 |
-
|
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|
| 728 |
|
| 729 |
-
|
| 730 |
-
|
| 731 |
-
|
| 732 |
-
|
| 733 |
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|
| 734 |
|
| 735 |
-
gr.Markdown(
|
| 736 |
-
"""
|
| 737 |
-
---
|
| 738 |
-
**9-module pipeline:**
|
| 739 |
-
RSS fetch → preprocess → DistilBERT →
|
| 740 |
-
**[1]** time-decay weight →
|
| 741 |
-
**[2]** source-quality weight →
|
| 742 |
-
**[3]** regime detection (ADX / ATR / EMA200) →
|
| 743 |
-
**[4]** volatility-adjusted threshold →
|
| 744 |
-
**[5]** technical confluence (RSI / EMA200 / volume / funding) →
|
| 745 |
-
**[6]** on-chain bias →
|
| 746 |
-
**[7]** dominance & entropy →
|
| 747 |
-
**[8]** sentiment divergence →
|
| 748 |
-
**[9]** online learning →
|
| 749 |
-
**final signal assembly**
|
| 750 |
|
| 751 |
-
|
| 752 |
-
|
| 753 |
-
|
| 754 |
-
)
|
| 755 |
|
| 756 |
-
|
| 757 |
-
demo.launch()
|
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|
| 1 |
import gradio as gr
|
| 2 |
+
import torch
|
| 3 |
+
from transformers import AutoTokenizer
|
| 4 |
+
from peft import AutoPeftModelForSequenceClassification
|
| 5 |
|
| 6 |
+
# =========================
|
| 7 |
+
# MODEL
|
| 8 |
+
# =========================
|
| 9 |
|
| 10 |
+
MODEL_PATH = "."
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| 11 |
|
| 12 |
+
device = "cuda" if torch.cuda.is_available() else "cpu"
|
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|
| 13 |
|
| 14 |
+
tokenizer = AutoTokenizer.from_pretrained(MODEL_PATH)
|
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|
| 15 |
|
| 16 |
+
model = AutoPeftModelForSequenceClassification.from_pretrained(
|
| 17 |
+
MODEL_PATH,
|
| 18 |
+
torch_dtype=torch.float16 if device == "cuda" else torch.float32
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| 19 |
)
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|
| 20 |
|
| 21 |
+
model.to(device)
|
| 22 |
+
model.eval()
|
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|
| 23 |
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|
| 24 |
|
| 25 |
+
# =========================
|
| 26 |
+
# PREDICTION
|
| 27 |
+
# =========================
|
| 28 |
|
| 29 |
+
def predict(text):
|
| 30 |
|
| 31 |
+
if not text or not text.strip():
|
| 32 |
+
return {
|
| 33 |
+
"Bullish": 0.0,
|
| 34 |
+
"Neutral": 0.0,
|
| 35 |
+
"Bearish": 0.0
|
| 36 |
+
}
|
| 37 |
|
| 38 |
+
inputs = tokenizer(
|
| 39 |
+
text,
|
| 40 |
+
return_tensors="pt",
|
| 41 |
+
truncation=True,
|
| 42 |
+
max_length=512
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|
| 43 |
)
|
| 44 |
|
| 45 |
+
inputs = {k: v.to(device) for k, v in inputs.items()}
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 46 |
|
| 47 |
+
with torch.no_grad():
|
| 48 |
+
outputs = model(**inputs)
|
| 49 |
+
probabilities = torch.softmax(outputs.logits, dim=-1)[0]
|
| 50 |
|
| 51 |
+
labels = ["Bearish", "Neutral", "Bullish"]
|
|
|
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|
| 52 |
|
| 53 |
+
result = {
|
| 54 |
+
labels[i]: float(probabilities[i])
|
| 55 |
+
for i in range(len(labels))
|
| 56 |
+
}
|
| 57 |
|
| 58 |
+
return result
|
| 59 |
+
|
| 60 |
+
|
| 61 |
+
# =========================
|
| 62 |
+
# GRADIO UI
|
| 63 |
+
# =========================
|
| 64 |
+
|
| 65 |
+
demo = gr.Interface(
|
| 66 |
+
fn=predict,
|
| 67 |
+
inputs=gr.Textbox(
|
| 68 |
+
label="Crypto Text",
|
| 69 |
+
placeholder="Bitcoin ETF inflows increased sharply today...",
|
| 70 |
+
lines=5
|
| 71 |
+
),
|
| 72 |
+
outputs=gr.Label(
|
| 73 |
+
label="Crypto Sentiment",
|
| 74 |
+
num_top_classes=3
|
| 75 |
+
),
|
| 76 |
+
title="CryptoBERT Sentiment",
|
| 77 |
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description="Bullish / Neutral / Bearish crypto sentiment analysis"
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)
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# =========================
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# START
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# =========================
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demo.launch()
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