Blame for app.py

"""
BIST Value Intelligence v3 — Compact Value & Intrinsic Valuation Platform
=========================================================================
Data integrity > model complexity. Intrinsic value > momentum. Margin of safety > prediction.

Veri etiketleri:  [R] raporlanan   [D] türetilen   [A] kullanıcı varsayımı
UYARI: yfinance verisi point-in-time DEĞİLDİR; Backtest sekmesi yalnızca DENEYSEL/göstergedir (bkz. sınırlamalar).
"""

import logging
import tempfile
import time
from datetime import datetime, timedelta
from typing import Any, Dict, List, Optional, Tuple

import gradio as gr
import numpy as np
import pandas as pd
import plotly.graph_objects as go
import yfinance as yf

logging.basicConfig(level=logging.INFO, format="%(asctime)s | %(levelname)s | %(message)s")
logger = logging.getLogger("bist_v3")

BIST_UNIVERSE = [
    # Mevcut çekirdek liste
    "AEFES", "AKBNK", "AKSA", "AKSEN", "ALARK", "ARCLK", "ASELS", "ASTOR", "BIMAS", "BRSAN",
    "CCOLA", "CIMSA", "DOAS", "DOHOL", "ECILC", "EKGYO", "ENJSA", "ENKAI", "EREGL", "FROTO",
    "GARAN", "GUBRF", "HEKTS", "ISCTR", "KCHOL", "KRDMD", "MGROS", "ODAS", "PETKM", "PGSUS",
    "SAHOL", "SASA", "SISE", "SKBNK", "TCELL", "THYAO", "TKFEN", "TOASO", "TSKB", "TTKOM",
    "TUPRS", "ULKER", "VAKBN", "VESBE", "YKBNK", "ZOREN", "ISGYO", "TRGYO", "HALKB", "AKGRT",
    "ANSGR", "TURSG", "ANHYT", "RAYSG",
    # Genişletme (>=100 hisse için)
    "AGHOL", "AHGAZ", "ALBRK", "ALFAS", "ARDYZ", "AYDEM", "BAGFS", "BERA", "BIOEN", "BRISA",
    "BRYAT", "BTCIM", "BUCIM", "CANTE", "CWENE", "EGEEN", "ENERY", "EUPWR", "GENIL", "GESAN",
    "GLYHO", "GWIND", "IPEKE", "ISDMR", "ISMEN", "KARSN", "KCAER", "KLSER", "KONTR", "KONYA",
    "KOZAA", "KOZAL", "KTLEV", "LOGO", "MAVI", "MIATK", "MPARK", "OTKAR", "OYAKC", "PSGYO",
    "QUAGR", "REEDR", "SELEC", "SMRTG", "SNGYO", "SOKM", "TABGD", "TAVHL", "TMSN", "TTRAK",
    "TKNSA", "TUKAS", "ULUUN", "VAKKO", "VESTL", "YEOTK", "ZRGYO", "ECZYT", "EBEBK", "FENER",
    "CLEBI", "DOCO", "EUREN", "INVEO", "KMPUR", "LMKDC", "NTHOL", "ONCSM", "PASEU", "TRMET",
]
BIST_UNIVERSE = list(dict.fromkeys(BIST_UNIVERSE))  # tekrarları temizle
assert len(BIST_UNIVERSE) >= 100, f"Evren {len(BIST_UNIVERSE)} hisse; en az 100 olmalı"
BIST_UNIVERSE = [s + ".IS" for s in BIST_UNIVERSE]

REQUEST_DELAY_SEC = 0.3
CACHE_TTL_HOURS = 6
MIN_PEERS = 5
_cache: Dict[str, Tuple[datetime, Any]] = {}
LAST: Dict[str, Any] = {"df": None, "failed": []}


def _cget(k):
    if k in _cache:
        ts, v = _cache[k]
        if datetime.now() - ts < timedelta(hours=CACHE_TTL_HOURS):
            return v
    return None


def _cset(k, v):
    _cache[k] = (datetime.now(), v)


# ============================================================================
# SMALL HELPERS
# ============================================================================

def num(x) -> Optional[float]:
    try:
        if x is None:
            return None
        v = float(x)
        return None if (np.isnan(v) or np.isinf(v)) else v
    except Exception:
        return None


def div(a, b) -> Optional[float]:
    a, b = num(a), num(b)
    if a is None or b is None or b == 0:
        return None
    return a / b


def growth(cur, prev) -> Optional[float]:
    cur, prev = num(cur), num(prev)
    if cur is None or prev is None or prev <= 0:
        return None
    return cur / prev - 1


def real_ret(nominal, infl) -> Optional[float]:
    return None if nominal is None else (1 + nominal) / (1 + infl) - 1


def lin(x, bad, good) -> Optional[float]:
    """Linear 0-100 scale; works for bad>good as well."""
    if x is None:
        return None
    return float(np.clip((x - bad) / (good - bad), 0, 1) * 100)


def wavg(items) -> Tuple[Optional[float], float]:
    v = [(s, w) for s, w in items if s is not None]
    tw = sum(w for _, w in items)
    if not v or tw == 0:
        return None, 0.0
    sw = sum(w for _, w in v)
    return sum(s * w for s, w in v) / sw, sw / tw


def anyc(*c) -> Optional[bool]:
    v = [x for x in c if x is not None]
    return None if not v else any(v)


def fm(x, d=2):
    return "N/A" if x is None else f"{x:,.{d}f}"


def fp(x, d=1):
    return "N/A" if x is None else f"{x * 100:.{d}f}%"


def norm_sym(t: str) -> str:
    t = (t or "").strip().upper()
    return t if t.endswith(".IS") else t + ".IS"


def owner_earnings(ni, da, capex, dwc):
    """OE = NI + D&A − bakım capex + ΔİSermayesi; bakım capex = min(toplam capex, D&A) [D tahmin]. Eksik girdi → None."""
    if None in (ni, da, capex, dwc):
        return None, None
    maint = min(capex, da)
    return ni + da - maint + dwc, dict(ni=ni, da=da, capex_total=capex, maint_est=maint, dwc=dwc)


def mk_params(infl, rw, rtg, rg, pt, cv) -> Dict[str, float]:
    return dict(infl=infl / 100, rw=rw / 100, rtg=rtg / 100, rg=rg / 100, pt=pt / 100, conv=cv / 100)


# ============================================================================
# DATA ACQUISITION & INTEGRITY
# ============================================================================

STMT = {
    "ni": (("Net Income", "Net Income Common Stockholders"), "fin"),
    "rev": (("Total Revenue", "Operating Revenue"), "fin"),
    "gp": (("Gross Profit",), "fin"),
    "opinc": (("Operating Income", "EBIT"), "fin"),
    "ebitda": (("EBITDA", "Normalized EBITDA"), "fin"),
    "interest": (("Interest Expense", "Interest Expense Non Operating"), "fin"),
    "tax": (("Tax Provision",), "fin"),
    "pretax": (("Pretax Income",), "fin"),
    "ta": (("Total Assets",), "bs"),
    "eq": (("Stockholders Equity", "Common Stock Equity", "Total Equity Gross Minority Interest"), "bs"),
    "debt": (("Total Debt",), "bs"),
    "ltd": (("Long Term Debt", "Long Term Debt And Capital Lease Obligation"), "bs"),
    "cash": (("Cash Cash Equivalents And Short Term Investments", "Cash And Cash Equivalents"), "bs"),
    "ca": (("Current Assets",), "bs"),
    "cl": (("Current Liabilities",), "bs"),
    "shares": (("Ordinary Shares Number", "Share Issued"), "bs"),
    "cfo": (("Operating Cash Flow", "Cash Flow From Continuing Operating Activities"), "cf"),
    "capex": (("Capital Expenditure",), "cf"),
    "fcf": (("Free Cash Flow",), "cf"),
    "da": (("Depreciation And Amortization", "Depreciation Amortization Depletion"), "cf"),
    "dwc": (("Change In Working Capital",), "cf"),
}


def stmt(df, names, i=0) -> Optional[float]:
    if df is None or getattr(df, "empty", True) or i >= df.shape[1]:
        return None
    for n in names:
        if n in df.index:
            r = df.loc[n]
            if isinstance(r, pd.DataFrame):
                r = r.iloc[0]
            return num(r.iloc[i])
    return None


def segment_of(industry: str, sym: str) -> str:
    ind = (industry or "").lower()
    if "bank" in ind:
        return "Bank"
    if "insurance" in ind:
        return "Insurance"
    if "reit" in ind or "real estate" in ind or sym.upper().endswith("GYO"):
        return "GYO"
    return "Industrial"


def fetch(symbol: str, force: bool = False) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
    key = f"t_{symbol}"
    if not force:
        c = _cget(key)
        if c is not None:
            return c
    try:
        t = yf.Ticker(symbol)
        info = t.info or {}
        fin, bs, cf = t.financials, t.balance_sheet, t.cashflow
        try:
            dv = t.dividends
        except Exception:
            dv = None
        price = num(info.get("currentPrice")) or num(info.get("regularMarketPrice"))
        if price is None:
            h = t.history(period="5d")
            price = num(h["Close"].iloc[-1]) if not h.empty else None
    except Exception as e:
        logger.warning("%s fetch failed: %s", symbol, e)
        return None
    if price is None or price <= 0:
        return None

    flags: List[str] = []
    dfs = {"fin": fin, "bs": bs, "cf": cf}
    s = {k: [stmt(dfs[src], names, i) for i in range(3)] for k, (names, src) in STMT.items()}
    s["capex"] = [abs(x) if x is not None else None for x in s["capex"]]
    s["interest"] = [abs(x) if x is not None else None for x in s["interest"]]
    for i in range(3):
        if s["fcf"][i] is None and s["cfo"][i] is not None and s["capex"][i] is not None:
            s["fcf"][i] = s["cfo"][i] - s["capex"][i]
        if s["ebitda"][i] is None and s["opinc"][i] is not None and s["da"][i] is not None:
            s["ebitda"][i] = s["opinc"][i] + s["da"][i]
    if s["debt"][0] is None:
        s["debt"][0] = num(info.get("totalDebt"))
        if s["debt"][0] is not None:
            flags.append("debt from info (not statement)")
    if s["cash"][0] is None:
        s["cash"][0] = num(info.get("totalCash"))
        if s["cash"][0] is not None:
            flags.append("cash from info (not statement)")

    # period / currency / unit validation
    sd = None
    try:
        sd = pd.Timestamp(fin.columns[0]).to_pydatetime() if fin is not None and not fin.empty else None
        for nm, df in (("balance sheet", bs), ("cash flow", cf)):
            if df is not None and not df.empty and sd is not None and pd.Timestamp(df.columns[0]).to_pydatetime() != sd:
                flags.append(f"{nm} period != income statement period")
    except Exception:
        pass
    age = (datetime.now() - sd).days if sd else None
    if age is not None and age > 550:
        flags.append(f"stale statements ({age} days)")
    if sd is None:
        flags.append("no annual statements")
    fc, cur = info.get("financialCurrency"), info.get("currency")
    unit_ok = (fc is None) or (cur is None) or (fc == cur)
    if not unit_ok:
        flags.append(f"currency mismatch (fin {fc} vs price {cur})")
    if fc is None:
        flags.append("financial currency unknown")

    shares = num(info.get("sharesOutstanding")) or s["shares"][0]
    mcap = num(info.get("marketCap")) or (price * shares if shares else None)
    if shares and mcap and abs(price * shares / mcap - 1) > 0.35:
        flags.append("shares x price differs >35% from market cap")
    eq0, ta0 = s["eq"][0], s["ta"][0]
    if eq0 is not None and ta0 is not None and eq0 > ta0 * 1.01:
        flags.append("equity > total assets (suspicious)")
    if s["rev"][0] and s["ni"][0] is not None and abs(s["ni"][0]) > 1.0 * s["rev"][0] and s["rev"][0] > 0:
        flags.append("|net income| > revenue (suspicious)")

    bvps = num(info.get("bookValue")) or div(eq0, shares)
    eps = num(info.get("trailingEps")) or div(s["ni"][0], shares)
    if eps is not None and shares and s["ni"][0] not in (None, 0) and abs(eps * shares / s["ni"][0] - 1) > 0.5:
        flags.append("EPS x shares differs >50% from net income")

    # dividends: 0 only if history fetched and empty; None if unavailable
    dy = None
    try:
        if dv is not None:
            if len(dv) > 0:
                cutoff = pd.Timestamp.now(tz=dv.index.tz) - pd.Timedelta(days=365)
                dy = float(dv[dv.index >= cutoff].sum()) / price
            else:
                dy = 0.0
    except Exception:
        dy = None
    if dy is None:
        y = num(info.get("dividendYield"))
        if y is not None:
            dy = y / 100 if y > 1 else y

    tax_assumed = False
    tr = div(s["tax"][0], s["pretax"][0]) if (s["pretax"][0] or 0) > 0 else None
    if tr is None:
        tr, tax_assumed = 0.25, True
    tr = float(np.clip(tr, 0, 0.35))

    net_debt = (s["debt"][0] - s["cash"][0]) if (s["debt"][0] is not None and s["cash"][0] is not None) else None
    fcf0, int0 = s["fcf"][0], s["interest"][0]
    fcff = (fcf0 + int0 * (1 - tr)) if (fcf0 is not None and int0 is not None) else None  # unlevered -> net debt bridge
    ni0, da0, cx0, wc0 = s["ni"][0], s["da"][0], s["capex"][0], s["dwc"][0]
    oe, oe_parts = owner_earnings(ni0, da0, cx0, wc0)  # bakım capex = min(capex, D&A) [D tahmin]
    ev = (mcap + net_debt) if (mcap and net_debt is not None) else num(info.get("enterpriseValue"))
    ebitda0 = s["ebitda"][0]
    industry = info.get("industry") or "Unknown"
    seg = segment_of(industry, symbol.replace(".IS", ""))
    roes = [div(s["ni"][i], s["eq"][i]) for i in range(3) if (s["eq"][i] or 0) > 0]
    roes = [r for r in roes if r is not None]
    ir = num(info.get("returnOnEquity"))
    if ir is not None:
        roes.append(ir)
    sust_roe = float(np.clip(np.mean(roes), -1, 1.5)) if roes else None

    d = {
        "sym": symbol.replace(".IS", ""), "name": info.get("shortName") or symbol, "price": price, "mcap": mcap,
        "shares": shares, "sector": info.get("sector") or "Unknown", "industry": industry, "seg": seg,
        "bvps": bvps, "eps": eps, "dy": dy, "s": s, "flags": flags, "unit_ok": unit_ok, "stmt_date": sd, "age": age,
        "tax_rate": tr, "tax_assumed": tax_assumed, "net_debt": net_debt, "fcff": fcff, "fcf0": fcf0, "oe": oe,
        "oe_yield": div(oe, mcap) if unit_ok else None, "oe_parts": oe_parts, "ev": ev, "sust_roe": sust_roe,
        "pe": price / eps if eps and eps > 0 else None,
        "fpe": num(info.get("forwardPE")) if (num(info.get("forwardPE")) or 0) > 0 else None,
        "pb": price / bvps if bvps and bvps > 0 else None,
        "ps": div(mcap, s["rev"][0]) if (s["rev"][0] or 0) > 0 else None,
        "ev_ebitda": div(ev, ebitda0) if (ebitda0 or 0) > 0 and ev else None,
        "ev_fcf": div(ev, fcf0) if (fcf0 or 0) > 0 and ev else None,
        "fcf_yield": div(fcf0, mcap), "earn_yield": div(eps, price), "fetched": datetime.now().isoformat(),
    }
    _cset(key, d)
    return d


def cached_ds() -> List[Dict[str, Any]]:
    return [v for k, (ts, v) in _cache.items() if k.startswith("t_") and v is not None]


MULTS = ["pe", "fpe", "pb", "ev_ebitda", "ev_fcf", "ps", "fcf_yield", "earn_yield"]
POS_ONLY = {"pe", "fpe", "pb", "ev_ebitda", "ev_fcf", "ps"}


def build_medians(ds) -> Dict[Tuple[str, str], Dict[str, Tuple[Optional[float], int]]]:
    groups: Dict[Tuple[str, str], list] = {}
    for d in ds:
        groups.setdefault((d["seg"], d["sector"]), []).append(d)
    med = {}
    for k, g in groups.items():
        m = {}
        for f in MULTS:
            v = [x[f] for x in g if x.get(f) is not None and (f not in POS_ONLY or (0 < x[f] < 300))]
            m[f] = (float(np.median(v)) if len(v) >= MIN_PEERS else None, len(v))
        med[k] = m
    return med


# ============================================================================
# VALUATION ENGINE
# ============================================================================

def dcf_value(base, g0, wacc, tg, shares, net_debt, years=5) -> Optional[Dict[str, float]]:
    """5-year explicit DCF, growth fades linearly g0 -> tg. Returns None if inputs insufficient."""
    if None in (base, g0, wacc, tg, shares, net_debt) or base <= 0 or shares <= 0 or wacc <= tg:
        return None
    flows, f = [], base
    for t in range(1, years + 1):
        g = g0 + (tg - g0) * (t - 1) / (years - 1)
        f *= 1 + g
        flows.append(f)
    pv = sum(fl / (1 + wacc) ** (i + 1) for i, fl in enumerate(flows))
    pvtv = flows[-1] * (1 + tg) / (wacc - tg) / (1 + wacc) ** years
    ev = pv + pvtv
    eq = ev - net_debt
    return {"ev": ev, "equity": eq, "per_share": eq / shares, "tv_share": pvtv / ev if ev else 0.0}


def assumptions(P, rg=None, rw=None):
    rg = P["rg"] if rg is None else rg
    rw = P["rw"] if rw is None else rw
    i = P["infl"]
    return (1 + rg) * (1 + i * P["pt"]) - 1, (1 + rw) * (1 + i) - 1, (1 + P["rtg"]) * (1 + i) - 1  # g0, wacc, tg (nominal)


def dcf_try(base, g0, wacc, tg, shares, nd, ok):
    if not ok:
        return None, "currency/unit mismatch"
    if base is None:
        return None, "essential inputs missing"
    if base <= 0:
        return None, "non-positive base cash flow"
    if not shares or shares <= 0:
        return None, "shares unavailable"
    if nd is None:
        return None, "net debt unavailable"
    if wacc <= tg:
        return None, "discount rate <= terminal growth"
    r = dcf_value(base, g0, wacc, tg, shares, nd)
    if r is None or r["per_share"] <= 0:
        return None, "equity value <= 0"
    return r["per_share"], f"TV = {r['tv_share'] * 100:.0f}% of EV"


def relative_value(d, med) -> Tuple[Optional[float], str]:
    m = med.get((d["seg"], d["sector"]))
    if not m or not d["unit_ok"]:
        return None, "no peer group / unit mismatch"
    seg, vals = d["seg"], []
    if m["pb"][0] and d["bvps"] and d["bvps"] > 0:
        vals.append(m["pb"][0] * d["bvps"])
    if seg != "GYO" and m["pe"][0] and d["eps"] and d["eps"] > 0:
        vals.append(m["pe"][0] * d["eps"])
    if seg == "Industrial" and m["ev_ebitda"][0] and (d["s"]["ebitda"][0] or 0) > 0 and d["net_debt"] is not None and d["shares"]:
        vals.append((m["ev_ebitda"][0] * d["s"]["ebitda"][0] - d["net_debt"]) / d["shares"])
    vals = [v for v in vals if v > 0]
    if not vals:
        return None, f"<{MIN_PEERS} valid peers"
    return float(np.mean(vals)), f"{len(vals)} sector-median multiple(s)"


def intrinsic(d, P, med, rg=None, rw=None):
    g0, wacc, tg = assumptions(P, rg, rw)
    m: Dict[str, Tuple[Optional[float], str]] = {}
    seg, bv = d["seg"], d["bvps"]
    if seg in ("Bank", "Insurance"):
        roe = d["sust_roe"]
        if d["unit_ok"] and roe is not None and bv and bv > 0 and wacc > tg:
            m["Justified P/B"] = (max((roe - tg) / (wacc - tg), 0) * bv, f"sust. ROE {fp(roe)}, COE {fp(wacc)}, g {fp(tg)}")
        else:
            m["Justified P/B"] = (None, "ROE/book value unavailable")
        m["DCF"] = (None, "not applied to banks/insurers")
    elif seg == "GYO":
        m["NAV proxy (book)"] = ((bv, "book value; appraised NAV not in Yahoo") if (d["unit_ok"] and bv and bv > 0) else (None, "book value unavailable"))
    else:
        m["DCF"] = dcf_try(d["fcff"], g0, wacc, tg, d["shares"], d["net_debt"], d["unit_ok"])
        m["Owner Earnings"] = dcf_try(d["oe"], g0, wacc, tg, d["shares"], 0.0, d["unit_ok"])  # equity CF: no debt bridge
    m["Relative"] = relative_value(d, med)
    vals = [v for v, _ in m.values() if v is not None and v > 0]
    return m, (float(np.median(vals)) if vals else None)


def reverse_dcf(d, P):
    if d["seg"] in ("Bank", "Insurance"):
        return None, "FCF-based reverse DCF not applicable to banks/insurers"
    base, shares, nd = d["fcff"], d["shares"], d["net_debt"]
    if not d["unit_ok"] or base is None or base <= 0 or not shares or nd is None:
        return None, "essential inputs missing or FCFF <= 0"
    _, wacc0, tg = assumptions(P)

    def solve(wacc):
        if wacc <= tg:
            return None
        f = lambda g: dcf_value(base, g, wacc, tg, shares, nd)["per_share"]
        lo, hi = -0.9, 3.0
        if not (f(lo) <= d["price"] <= f(hi)):
            return None
        for _ in range(80):
            mid = (lo + hi) / 2
            lo, hi = (mid, hi) if f(mid) < d["price"] else (lo, mid)
        return (lo + hi) / 2

    rows = []
    for dw in (-0.03, 0.0, 0.03):
        rw = P["rw"] + dw
        w = (1 + rw) * (1 + P["infl"]) - 1
        g = solve(w)
        rows.append({"Real discount rate": fp(rw), "Nominal WACC": fp(w), "Implied FCF growth (nominal, yr1)": fp(g),
                     "Implied (real)": fp(real_ret(g, P["infl"]))})
    return rows, "ok"


def scenarios(d, P, med, probs):
    SC = [("Bear", -0.04, 0.03, 0.85), ("Base", 0.0, 0.0, 1.0), ("Bull", 0.04, -0.02, 1.10)]
    out, ok = [], True
    for (nm, dg, dw, mult), p in zip(SC, probs):
        _, iv = intrinsic(d, P, med, rg=P["rg"] + dg, rw=max(P["rw"] + dw, 0.0))
        tgt = None if iv is None else (d["price"] + P["conv"] * (iv - d["price"])) * mult
        ok &= tgt is not None
        out.append({"Scenario": nm, "Real growth": fp(P["rg"] + dg), "Real disc. rate": fp(max(P["rw"] + dw, 0)),
                    "Multiple factor": mult, "Intrinsic": iv, "Target": tgt, "Prob": p})
    if not ok:
        return out, None
    pw = sum(o["Prob"] * o["Target"] for o in out)
    nom = pw / d["price"] - 1
    dy = d["dy"] or 0.0
    tot = nom + dy
    return out, dict(pw=pw, nominal=nom, total=tot, real=real_ret(tot, P["infl"]), real_price=real_ret(nom, P["infl"]),
                     dy_known=d["dy"] is not None)


def validate_probs(bear, base):
    bull = 100 - bear - base
    if bear < 0 or base < 0 or bull < -1e-9:
        return None
    return (bear / 100, base / 100, bull / 100)


# ============================================================================
# QUALITY, PIOTROSKI, RISK
# ============================================================================

def cv(series):
    v = [x for x in series if x is not None]
    if len(v) < 3 or np.mean(v) <= 0:
        return None
    return float(np.std(v) / np.mean(v))


def quality(d):
    s, q = d["s"], {}
    ni0, eq0, ta0, rev0 = s["ni"][0], s["eq"][0], s["ta"][0], s["rev"][0]
    q["roe"] = div(ni0, eq0) if (eq0 or 0) > 0 else None
    q["roa"] = div(ni0, ta0)
    ic = None
    if None not in (eq0, s["debt"][0], s["cash"][0]):
        ic = eq0 + s["debt"][0] - s["cash"][0]
    q["roic"] = div(s["opinc"][0] * (1 - d["tax_rate"]), ic) if (s["opinc"][0] is not None and ic and ic > 0) else None
    q["gm"] = div(s["gp"][0], rev0)
    q["opm"] = div(s["opinc"][0], rev0)
    q["npm"] = div(ni0, rev0)
    q["de"] = div(s["debt"][0], eq0) * 100 if (eq0 or 0) > 0 and s["debt"][0] is not None else None
    e0 = s["ebitda"][0]
    q["nd_ebitda"] = div(d["net_debt"], e0) if (e0 or 0) > 0 and d["net_debt"] is not None else None
    q["cr"] = div(s["ca"][0], s["cl"][0])
    q["icov"] = div(s["opinc"][0], s["interest"][0]) if (s["interest"][0] or 0) > 0 else None
    q["fcf_conv"] = div(s["fcf"][0], ni0) if (ni0 or 0) > 0 else None
    q["fcf_cv"] = cv(s["fcf"])
    q["ni_cv"] = cv(s["ni"])
    q["rev_g"] = growth(rev0, s["rev"][1])
    q["ni_g"] = growth(ni0, s["ni"][1])
    q["eq_ta"] = div(eq0, ta0)
    return q


def piotroski(d):
    s = d["s"]

    def cmp(a, b, op):
        return None if a is None or b is None else op(a, b)

    roa = [div(s["ni"][i], s["ta"][i]) for i in (0, 1)]
    cr = [div(s["ca"][i], s["cl"][i]) for i in (0, 1)]
    lev = [div(s["ltd"][i] if s["ltd"][i] is not None else s["debt"][i], s["ta"][i]) for i in (0, 1)]
    gm = [div(s["gp"][i], s["rev"][i]) for i in (0, 1)]
    at = [div(s["rev"][i], s["ta"][i]) for i in (0, 1)]
    comps = [
        ("1 Net income > 0", cmp(s["ni"][0], 0, lambda a, b: a > b)),
        ("2 CFO > 0", cmp(s["cfo"][0], 0, lambda a, b: a > b)),
        ("3 ROA improved", cmp(roa[0], roa[1], lambda a, b: a > b)),
        ("4 CFO > net income", cmp(s["cfo"][0], s["ni"][0], lambda a, b: a > b)),
        ("5 Leverage decreased", cmp(lev[0], lev[1], lambda a, b: a < b)),
        ("6 Current ratio improved", cmp(cr[0], cr[1], lambda a, b: a > b)),
        ("7 No share dilution", cmp(s["shares"][0], s["shares"][1], lambda a, b: a <= b * 1.005)),
        ("8 Gross margin improved", cmp(gm[0], gm[1], lambda a, b: a > b)),
        ("9 Asset turnover improved", cmp(at[0], at[1], lambda a, b: a > b)),
    ]
    n = sum(1 for _, v in comps if v is not None)
    return sum(1 for _, v in comps if v), n, comps


def risk_engine(d, q, cov):
    s, bank = d["s"], d["seg"] in ("Bank", "Insurance")
    ni0, ni1 = s["ni"][0], s["ni"][1]
    fl = []

    def add(name, w, cond, detail):
        fl.append((name, w, None if cond is None else ("TRIGGERED" if cond else "OK"), detail))

    add("Financial distress", 12, anyc(None if s["eq"][0] is None else s["eq"][0] <= 0,
                                       None if q["icov"] is None else q["icov"] < 1.5,
                                       None if (ni0 is None or s["cfo"][0] is None) else (ni0 < 0 and s["cfo"][0] < 0)),
        "equity<=0, interest cover<1.5, or NI<0 & CFO<0")
    lev = anyc(None if q["eq_ta"] is None else q["eq_ta"] < 0.06) if bank else anyc(
        None if q["nd_ebitda"] is None else q["nd_ebitda"] > 4, None if q["de"] is None else q["de"] > 200)
    add("Leverage", 12, lev, "bank: equity/assets<6%; else ND/EBITDA>4 or D/E>200%")
    add("Liquidity", 10, None if bank else (None if q["cr"] is None else q["cr"] < 1), "current ratio < 1")
    add("Negative FCF", 10, None if bank else (None if s["fcf"][0] is None else s["fcf"][0] < 0), "FCF < 0")
    ed = None
    if ni0 is not None and ni1 is not None:
        ed = ni0 < 0 or (ni1 > 0 and ni0 < 0.8 * ni1)
    add("Earnings deterioration", 10, ed, "NI < 0 or down >20% y/y")
    md = None
    if not bank and q["opm"] is not None and s["opinc"][1] is not None and (s["rev"][1] or 0) > 0:
        md = q["opm"] < s["opinc"][1] / s["rev"][1] - 0.02
    add("Margin deterioration", 8, md, "operating margin down >2 pts")
    dv = None if bank or ni0 is None or s["cfo"][0] is None or ni0 <= 0 else s["cfo"][0] < 0.5 * ni0
    add("CFO vs NI divergence", 10, dv, "CFO < 50% of positive NI")
    dil = cmp_g = growth(s["shares"][0], s["shares"][1])
    add("Dilution", 8, None if dil is None else dil > 0.03, "share count +3% y/y")
    ev = anyc(None if d["pe"] is None and d["eps"] is None else (d["eps"] is not None and d["eps"] <= 0) or (d["pe"] is not None and d["pe"] > 40),
              None if d["pb"] is None else d["pb"] > 6)
    add("Extreme valuation", 10, ev, "P/E>40, loss-making, or P/B>6")
    add("Data reliability", 10, cov < 0.7 or bool(d["flags"]), f"coverage<70% or integrity flags ({len(d['flags'])})")
    ev_w = sum(w for _, w, st, _ in fl if st is not None)
    score = None if ev_w == 0 else 100 * sum(w for _, w, st, _ in fl if st == "TRIGGERED") / ev_w
    return score, fl


# ============================================================================
# SCORING & ANALYSIS
# ============================================================================

WEIGHTS = {"Industrial": (.35, .30, .20, .15), "Bank": (.40, .35, .10, .15),
           "Insurance": (.40, .30, .15, .15), "GYO": (.45, .20, .20, .15)}


def coverage(d):
    s, seg = d["s"], d["seg"]
    f = [d["price"], d["mcap"], d["shares"], d["pb"], d["pe"], s["ni"][0], s["eq"][0], s["ta"][0], d["bvps"]]
    if seg not in ("Bank", "Insurance"):
        f += [s["rev"][0], s["cfo"][0], s["debt"][0], s["cash"][0], d["fcff"], s["ebitda"][0], d["oe"]]
    return sum(x is not None for x in f) / len(f)


def analyze(d, P, med, probs=(0.25, 0.5, 0.25)):
    A: Dict[str, Any] = {"d": d}
    infl, seg = P["infl"], d["seg"]
    q = quality(d)
    A["q"] = q
    A["methods"], A["iv"] = intrinsic(d, P, med)
    A["mos"] = (A["iv"] - d["price"]) / A["iv"] if A["iv"] else None
    rv, A["rel_note"] = relative_value(d, med)
    A["rel_mos"] = (rv - d["price"]) / rv if rv else None
    A["pio"] = piotroski(d)
    A["cov"] = coverage(d)
    A["risk"], A["flags"] = risk_engine(d, q, A["cov"])
    bank = seg in ("Bank", "Insurance")
    rroe, rroic = real_ret(q["roe"], infl), real_ret(q["roic"], infl)
    rrev, rni = real_ret(q["rev_g"], infl), real_ret(q["ni_g"], infl)
    pe_s = (0.0 if d["eps"] <= 0 else lin(d["pe"], 25, 4)) if d["eps"] is not None else None
    pb_s = lin(d["pb"], 4, 0.5) if d["pb"] else (0.0 if d["bvps"] is not None and d["bvps"] <= 0 else None)
    vi = [(lin(A["mos"], -0.3, 0.5), 4), (lin(A["rel_mos"], -0.3, 0.5), 2)]
    if bank:
        vi += [(pe_s, 2), (pb_s, 3), (lin(d["dy"], 0, 0.08), 1)]
    elif seg == "GYO":
        vi += [(lin(d["pb"], 1.5, 0.4), 3), (pe_s, 1)]
    else:
        vi += [(pe_s, 1), (pb_s, 1), (lin(d["ev_ebitda"], 15, 3), 1), (lin(d["fcf_yield"], -0.02, 0.12), 1),
               (lin(d["oe_yield"], -0.02, 0.12), 1), (lin(d["earn_yield"], 0, 0.25), 1)]
    if bank:
        qi = [(lin(rroe, -0.1, 0.2), 4), (lin(q["roa"], 0, 0.03), 2), (lin(q["ni_cv"], 2, 0.3), 2),
              (lin(d["dy"], 0, 0.08), 1), (lin(rni, -0.2, 0.3), 1)]
    else:
        qi = [(lin(rroe, -0.1, 0.2), 3), (lin(rroic, -0.05, 0.15), 3), (lin(q["opm"], 0.02, 0.25), 2),
              (lin(q["fcf_conv"], 0, 1.2), 2), (lin(q["fcf_cv"], 2, 0.3), 1), (lin(rrev, -0.1, 0.2), 1), (lin(rni, -0.2, 0.3), 1)]
    sc, n, _ = A["pio"]
    e0 = d["s"]["ebitda"][0]
    if bank:
        si = [(lin(q["eq_ta"], 0.04, 0.12), 4), (lin(q["roa"], 0, 0.02), 1)]
    else:
        nde = 0.0 if (e0 is not None and e0 <= 0 and (d["net_debt"] or 0) > 0) else lin(q["nd_ebitda"], 5, 0)
        if q["nd_ebitda"] is None and d["net_debt"] is not None and d["net_debt"] <= 0 and (e0 or 0) > 0:
            nde = 100.0  # net cash
        si = [(nde, 3), (lin(q["cr"], 0.8, 2.0), 2), (lin(q["icov"], 1, 8), 2), (lin(q["de"], 250, 30), 2),
              (lin(sc / n, 0.3, 0.8) if n >= 5 else None, 2)]
    A["val"], A["val_cov"] = wavg(vi)
    A["qual"], A["qual_cov"] = wavg(qi)
    A["str"], A["str_cov"] = wavg(si)
    w = WEIGHTS[seg]
    comps = [A["val"], A["qual"], A["str"], None if A["risk"] is None else 100 - A["risk"]]
    if A["val"] is None or A["qual"] is None:
        A["composite"] = None
    else:
        av = [(c, wt) for c, wt in zip(comps, w) if c is not None]
        A["composite"] = sum(c * wt for c, wt in av) / sum(wt for _, wt in av) * min(1.0, A["cov"] / 0.7)
    sev = (not d["unit_ok"]) or any("stale" in f or "period" in f for f in d["flags"])
    lvl = 2 if A["cov"] >= 0.85 else 1 if A["cov"] >= 0.65 else 0
    lvl = max(lvl - (1 if sev else 0), 0)
    A["conf"] = ["Low", "Medium", "High"][lvl]
    pr = validate_probs(probs[0] * 100, probs[1] * 100) or (0.25, 0.5, 0.25)
    A["scen"], A["exp"] = scenarios(d, P, med, pr)
    return A


# ============================================================================
# OUTPUT BUILDERS
# ============================================================================

def get_A(ticker, P, probs=(0.25, 0.5, 0.25)):
    sym = norm_sym(ticker)
    d = fetch(sym)
    if d is None:
        return None, f"⚠️ {sym} verisi çekilemedi."
    return analyze(d, P, build_medians(cached_ds()), probs), None


def price_fig(sym, extra=None):
    try:
        h = yf.Ticker(norm_sym(sym)).history(period="1y")
        if h.empty:
            return None
        f = go.Figure(go.Scatter(x=h.index, y=h["Close"], mode="lines", name="Close"))
        for nm, v in (extra or {}).items():
            if v:
                f.add_hline(y=v, line_dash="dot", annotation_text=nm)
        f.update_layout(title=f"{sym} — 1Y", template="plotly_white", height=380, margin=dict(l=10, r=10, t=40, b=10))
        return f
    except Exception:
        return None


def scan_row(A):
    d, q = A["d"], A["q"]
    sc, n, _ = A["pio"]
    e = A["exp"]
    oe_v = A["methods"].get("Owner Earnings", (None, ""))[0]
    return {
        "Ticker": d["sym"], "Segment": d["seg"], "Sector": d["sector"], "Price": round(d["price"], 2),
        "Composite": None if A["composite"] is None else round(A["composite"], 1),
        "Intrinsic": None if A["iv"] is None else round(A["iv"], 2),
        "MoS %": None if A["mos"] is None else round(A["mos"] * 100, 1),
        "P/E": None if d["pe"] is None else round(d["pe"], 1), "P/B": None if d["pb"] is None else round(d["pb"], 2),
        "ROE %": None if q["roe"] is None else round(q["roe"] * 100, 1),
        "ROIC %": None if q["roic"] is None else round(q["roic"] * 100, 1),
        "FCF Yield %": None if d["fcf_yield"] is None else round(d["fcf_yield"] * 100, 1),
        "OE Yield %": None if d["oe_yield"] is None else round(d["oe_yield"] * 100, 1),
        "OE Value": None if oe_v is None else round(oe_v, 2),
        "OE MoS %": None if oe_v is None else round((oe_v - d["price"]) / oe_v * 100, 1),
        "Piotroski": f"{sc}/{n} (cov {n}/9)" if n else "N/A",
        "Risk": None if A["risk"] is None else round(A["risk"], 0),
        "Exp Return % (nom, incl div)": None if not e else round(e["total"] * 100, 1),
        "Real Exp Return %": None if not e or e["real"] is None else round(e["real"] * 100, 1),
        "Coverage %": round(A["cov"] * 100), "Confidence": A["conf"],
    }


def run_scan(force, extra, P, progress):
    syms = BIST_UNIVERSE + [norm_sym(x) for x in (extra or "").split(",") if x.strip()]
    syms = list(dict.fromkeys(syms))
    ds, failed = [], []
    for i, s in enumerate(syms):
        progress((i + 1) / len(syms), desc=f"Fetching {s}")
        was_cached = (not force) and _cget(f"t_{s}") is not None
        d = fetch(s, force)
        (ds.append(d) if d else failed.append(s))
        if not was_cached:
            time.sleep(REQUEST_DELAY_SEC)
    med = build_medians(ds)
    rows = [scan_row(analyze(d, P, med)) for d in ds]
    df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
    LAST["df"], LAST["failed"] = df, failed
    return df, failed


def apply_filters(seg, minc, minm, sortby, desc):
    df = LAST["df"]
    if df is None or df.empty:
        return None, None
    x = df.copy()
    if seg != "All":
        x = x[x["Segment"] == seg]
    x = x[x["Composite"].fillna(-1) >= minc]
    if minm > -100:
        x = x[x["MoS %"].fillna(-1e9) >= minm]
    x = x.sort_values(sortby, ascending=not desc, na_position="last")
    f = tempfile.NamedTemporaryFile(delete=False, suffix=".csv", prefix="bist_v3_")
    x.to_csv(f.name, index=False)
    return x, f.name


def md_report(A, P):
    d = A["d"]
    L = [f"## {d['sym']} — {d['name']}",
         f"**{d['seg']}** · {d['sector']} / {d['industry']} · Fiyat **{fm(d['price'])} TRY** · Mali tablo: "
         f"{d['stmt_date'].date() if d['stmt_date'] else 'N/A'}",
         f"**Composite {fm(A['composite'], 0)}** | Valuation {fm(A['val'], 0)} | Quality {fm(A['qual'], 0)} | "
         f"Strength {fm(A['str'], 0)} | Risk {fm(A['risk'], 0)} (düşük=iyi) | Coverage {fp(A['cov'], 0)} | "
         f"Confidence **{A['conf']}**",
         f"**Intrinsic value [D]:** {fm(A['iv'])} TRY · Margin of Safety {fp(A['mos'])}"]
    L.append("\n| Yöntem | Değer/hisse | Not |\n|---|---|---|")
    for k, (v, n) in A["methods"].items():
        L.append(f"| {k} | {fm(v)} | {n} |")
    if d["oe"] is not None:
        L.append(f"\n**Owner Earnings [D]:** {fm(d['oe'], 0)} · OE Yield {fp(d['oe_yield'])}")
    if d["flags"]:
        L.append("\n**⚠️ Veri bayrakları:** " + "; ".join(d["flags"]))
    L.append("\n*Intrinsic = mevcut yöntemlerin medyanı. Skorlar evren içi göreceli, açıklanabilir heuristiklerdir.*")
    return "\n".join(L)


def radar_fig(A):
    cats = ["Valuation", "Quality", "Strength", "Safety (100-Risk)"]
    v = [A["val"], A["qual"], A["str"], None if A["risk"] is None else 100 - A["risk"]]
    v = [x or 0 for x in v]
    f = go.Figure(go.Scatterpolar(r=v + v[:1], theta=cats + cats[:1], fill="toself"))
    f.update_layout(polar=dict(radialaxis=dict(range=[0, 100])), height=340, margin=dict(l=30, r=30, t=30, b=20))
    return f


# ============================================================================
# SELF TEST (synthetic)
# ============================================================================

def self_test() -> str:
    res = []

    def chk(name, cond):
        res.append(("✅ " if cond else "❌ ") + name)

    r = dcf_value(100, 0, 0.10, 0, 10, 200)
    chk("DCF: g=0,tg=0 → EV=1000", r is not None and abs(r["ev"] - 1000) < 1e-6)
    chk("EV→Equity: 1000-200=800, 80/share", r is not None and abs(r["equity"] - 800) < 1e-6 and abs(r["per_share"] - 80) < 1e-6)
    chk("DCF refuses wacc<=tg", dcf_value(100, 0.1, 0.05, 0.05, 10, 0) is None)
    chk("DCF refuses FCF<=0", dcf_value(-5, 0.1, 0.2, 0.05, 10, 0) is None)
    chk("DCF refuses missing input", dcf_value(100, 0.1, 0.2, 0.05, None, 0) is None)
    chk("Real return 50% nom / 25% infl = 20%", abs(real_ret(0.5, 0.25) - 0.2) < 1e-12)
    chk("div by zero → None", div(1, 0) is None and div(None, 2) is None)
    P = dict(infl=0.30, rw=0.10, rtg=0.01, rg=0.03, pt=0.5, conv=0.5)
    g0, w, tg = assumptions(P)
    chk("WACC > terminal growth (defaults)", w > tg)
    chk("Probabilities 25/50 → 25/50/25 sum=1", validate_probs(25, 50) is not None and abs(sum(validate_probs(25, 50)) - 1) < 1e-9)
    chk("Probabilities 70/50 rejected", validate_probs(70, 50) is None)
    # reverse DCF consistency
    d = {"fcff": 100.0, "shares": 10.0, "net_debt": 200.0, "price": 80.0, "unit_ok": True, "seg": "Industrial"}
    P2 = dict(infl=0.0, rw=0.10, rtg=0.0, rg=0.0, pt=0.0, conv=0.5)
    rows, _ = reverse_dcf(d, P2)
    chk("Reverse DCF: price 80 → implied g≈0", rows is not None and rows[1]["Implied FCF growth (nominal, yr1)"] == "0.0%")
    # Piotroski incompleteness
    empty = {"s": {k: [None, None, None] for k in STMT}}
    sc, n, _ = piotroski(empty)
    chk("Piotroski all-missing → 0 available (not 9/9)", n == 0 and sc == 0)
    # peer rule
    ds = [{"seg": "Industrial", "sector": "X", "pe": 10.0 + i, **{m: None for m in MULTS if m != "pe"}} for i in range(4)]
    chk("Sector median needs >=5 peers", build_medians(ds)[("Industrial", "X")]["pe"][0] is None)
    ds += [{"seg": "Industrial", "sector": "X", "pe": 20.0, **{m: None for m in MULTS if m != "pe"}}]
    chk("Sector median with 5 peers computed", build_medians(ds)[("Industrial", "X")]["pe"][0] == 12.0 or build_medians(ds)[("Industrial", "X")]["pe"][0] is not None)
    chk("Segment classification", segment_of("Banks - Regional", "GARAN") == "Bank" and segment_of("Real Estate", "EKGYO") == "GYO"
        and segment_of("Insurance - Life", "ANHYT") == "Insurance" and segment_of("Steel", "EREGL") == "Industrial")
    oe, _ = owner_earnings(100, 50, 80, -10)
    chk("OE: NI100 + DA50 − min(capex80, DA50) + ΔWC(−10) = 90", oe == 90)
    chk("OE: eksik girdi → None (0 değil)", owner_earnings(100, None, 80, 0)[0] is None)
    pr = [dict(end=pd.Timestamp("2023-12-31"), oe=1, fcf=1, ni=1, shares=1)]
    chk("Backtest: tablo dönem sonu+gecikmeden önce kullanılmaz (look-ahead yok)",
        pick_period(pr, pd.Timestamp("2024-02-15"), 90) is None and pick_period(pr, pd.Timestamp("2024-04-15"), 90) is not None)
    chk("Backtest: >550 gün eski tablo reddedilir", pick_period(pr, pd.Timestamp("2025-09-01"), 90) is None)
    st = bt_stats(pd.Series([100, 110, 121], index=pd.to_datetime(["2020-01-01", "2021-01-01", "2022-01-01"])))
    chk("Backtest: 100→121 / 2 yıl → CAGR≈10%", st is not None and abs(st["cagr"] - 0.10) < 0.005)
    st2 = bt_stats(pd.Series([100, 80, 90], index=pd.to_datetime(["2020-01-01", "2020-06-01", "2021-01-01"])))
    chk("Backtest: max drawdown −20%", st2 is not None and abs(st2["mdd"] + 0.2) < 1e-9)
    return "\n".join(res)


# ============================================================================
# BACKTEST (DENEYSEL, OE odaklı) — point-in-time DEĞİL, yalnızca gösterge
# ============================================================================
BT_DEFAULT_LAG = 90     # yıllık tablo, dönem sonu + N gün sonra "yayınlanmış" sayılır
BT_MAX_AGE = 550        # dönem sonu üzerinden bu kadar gün geçmiş tablo kullanılmaz
BT_SIGS = {"OE": "OE Yield (top N)", "FCF": "FCF Yield (top N)", "NI": "Kazanç Getirisi (top N)"}


def stmt_at(df, names, date):
    """Tabloda tam o dönem sonu sütununu bul (kolon sırasına güvenme)."""
    if df is None or getattr(df, "empty", True):
        return None
    cols = [pd.Timestamp(c).normalize() for c in df.columns]
    try:
        i = cols.index(pd.Timestamp(date).normalize())
    except ValueError:
        return None
    return stmt(df, names, i)


def _naive_index(s):
    s = s[~s.index.duplicated(keep="last")].sort_index()
    s.index = pd.DatetimeIndex(s.index).tz_localize(None).normalize()
    return s


def fetch_bt(symbol: str, force: bool = False) -> Optional[Dict[str, Any]]:
    key = f"bt_{symbol}"
    if not force:
        c = _cget(key)
        if c is not None:
            return c
    try:
        t = yf.Ticker(symbol)
        info = t.info or {}
        fin, bs, cf = t.financials, t.balance_sheet, t.cashflow
        h = t.history(period="max", auto_adjust=False)
        try:
            spl = t.splits
        except Exception:
            spl = None
    except Exception as e:
        logger.warning("%s bt fetch failed: %s", symbol, e)
        return None
    if h is None or h.empty or fin is None or fin.empty or "Close" not in h:
        return None
    close = _naive_index(h["Close"].dropna())             # split-ayarlı, temettü-ayarsız → piyasa değeri için
    adj = _naive_index(h["Adj Close"].dropna()) if "Adj Close" in h else close  # toplam getiri için
    if spl is not None and len(spl):
        spl = _naive_index(spl)
    fc, cur = info.get("financialCurrency"), info.get("currency")
    unit_ok = (fc is None) or (cur is None) or (fc == cur)
    seg = segment_of(info.get("industry") or "", symbol.replace(".IS", ""))
    shares_now = num(info.get("sharesOutstanding"))
    periods = []
    for c in fin.columns:
        end = pd.Timestamp(c).normalize()
        ni = stmt_at(fin, STMT["ni"][0], end)
        da, cx, wc = (stmt_at(cf, STMT[k][0], end) for k in ("da", "capex", "dwc"))
        cx = abs(cx) if cx is not None else None
        cfo, fcf = stmt_at(cf, STMT["cfo"][0], end), stmt_at(cf, STMT["fcf"][0], end)
        if fcf is None and cfo is not None and cx is not None:
            fcf = cfo - cx
        oe, _ = owner_earnings(ni, da, cx, wc)
        sh = stmt_at(bs, STMT["shares"][0], end)
        if sh is not None and spl is not None and len(spl):
            sh *= float(spl[spl.index > end].prod())       # bedelsiz/bölünme sonrası hisse sayısına getir (fiyat serisiyle tutarlı)
        elif sh is None:
            sh = shares_now                                 # fallback: güncel hisse sayısı (güncel split-ayarlı fiyatla tutarlı)
        periods.append(dict(end=end, oe=oe, fcf=fcf, ni=ni, shares=sh))
    periods.sort(key=lambda p: p["end"])
    d = dict(sym=symbol.replace(".IS", ""), seg=seg, unit_ok=unit_ok, periods=periods, close=close, adj=adj)
    _cset(key, d)
    return d


def pick_period(periods, date, lag):
    """Look-ahead koruması: yalnızca (dönem sonu + lag) <= tarih olan ve çok eski olmayan en güncel tablo."""
    best = None
    for p in periods:
        if p["end"] + pd.Timedelta(days=lag) <= date and (date - p["end"]).days <= BT_MAX_AGE:
            if best is None or p["end"] > best["end"]:
                best = p
    return best


def px_asof(s, date, tol=10):
    i = s.index.searchsorted(date, side="right") - 1
    if i < 0 or (date - s.index[i]).days > tol:
        return None
    return float(s.iloc[i])


def bt_signals(bd, date, lag):
    p = pick_period(bd["periods"], date, lag)
    if p is None or not bd["unit_ok"] or not p["shares"] or p["shares"] <= 0:
        return None
    c = px_asof(bd["close"], date)
    if c is None or c <= 0:
        return None
    mc = c * p["shares"]
    return {"OE": div(p["oe"], mc), "FCF": div(p["fcf"], mc), "NI": div(p["ni"], mc), "end": p["end"]}


def bt_stats(curve):
    c = curve.dropna()
    if len(c) < 3:
        return None
    yrs = (c.index[-1] - c.index[0]).days / 365.25
    tot = c.iloc[-1] / c.iloc[0] - 1
    cagr = (1 + tot) ** (1 / yrs) - 1 if yrs >= 0.25 and tot > -1 else None
    vol = float(c.pct_change().dropna().std() * np.sqrt(252))
    mdd = float((c / c.cummax() - 1).min())
    return dict(total=tot, cagr=cagr, vol=vol, mdd=mdd, rv=(cagr / vol) if (cagr is not None and vol > 0) else None)


def run_backtest(syms, step_m, top_n, lag, cost_bps, progress):
    data, failed = {}, []
    for i, s in enumerate(syms):
        progress((i + 1) / len(syms), desc=f"Fetching {s}")
        was = _cget(f"bt_{s}") is not None
        bd = fetch_bt(s)
        if bd is None:
            failed.append(s.replace(".IS", ""))
        elif bd["seg"] == "Industrial":      # OE banka/sigorta/GYO için anlamlı değil
            data[s] = bd
        if not was:
            time.sleep(REQUEST_DELAY_SEC)
    ends = [p["end"] for bd in data.values() for p in bd["periods"]]
    if not ends:
        return None, None, None, "⚠️ Backtest için yeterli veri çekilemedi."
    T = max(bd["close"].index[-1] for bd in data.values())
    start = (min(ends) + pd.Timedelta(days=lag)).replace(day=1)
    dates = [d for d in pd.date_range(start, T, freq=pd.DateOffset(months=int(step_m))) if d < T]
    keys = list(BT_SIGS) + ["EW"]
    equity, hold, segs, per_ret = {k: 100.0 for k in keys}, {k: [] for k in keys}, {k: [] for k in keys}, {k: [] for k in keys}
    started, n_reb, first_date, n_hold = False, 0, None, []
    for j, D in enumerate(dates):
        D1 = dates[j + 1] if j + 1 < len(dates) else T
        sig = {s: bt_signals(bd, D, lag) for s, bd in data.items()}
        sig = {s: v for s, v in sig.items() if v is not None}
        n_oe = sum(1 for v in sig.values() if v["OE"] is not None)
        if not started:
            if n_oe < max(10, top_n):
                continue
            started, first_date = True, D
        n_reb += 1
        for k in keys:
            if k == "EW":
                new_h = [s for s, v in sig.items() if v["OE"] is not None]
            else:
                rk = sorted(((v[k], s) for s, v in sig.items() if v[k] is not None and v[k] > 0), reverse=True)
                new_h = [s for _, s in rk[:top_n]] if len(rk) >= 3 else hold[k]
            rels = []
            for s in new_h:
                a = data[s]["adj"]
                a0 = px_asof(a, D)
                seg = a[(a.index > D) & (a.index <= D1)]
                if a0 is None or seg.empty:
                    continue
                rels.append(seg / a0)
            old = hold[k]
            turn = (1 - len(set(new_h) & set(old)) / max(len(new_h), 1)) if old else 1.0
            equity[k] *= 1 - cost_bps / 1e4 * (turn * 2 if old else 1)
            hold[k] = new_h
            if not rels:
                continue
            path = pd.concat(rels, axis=1).sort_index().ffill().fillna(1.0).mean(axis=1)
            per_ret[k].append(float(path.iloc[-1] - 1))
            segs[k].append(path * equity[k])
            equity[k] = float(segs[k][-1].iloc[-1])
            if k == "OE":
                n_hold.append(len(rels))
    if not started or not segs["OE"]:
        return None, None, None, ("⚠️ Yeterli sinyal yok: yfinance yıllık tablo geçmişi kısa/eksik olduğundan "
                                  "en az 10 hissede OE hesaplanabilen bir başlangıç tarihi bulunamadı.")
    curves = {}
    for k in keys:
        if segs[k]:
            s = pd.concat(segs[k])
            curves[k] = pd.concat([pd.Series({first_date: 100.0}), s[~s.index.duplicated(keep="last")]]).sort_index()
    try:  # benchmark: BIST100
        hb = _naive_index(yf.Ticker("XU100.IS").history(start=(first_date - pd.Timedelta(days=10)).strftime("%Y-%m-%d"))["Close"].dropna())
        b0 = px_asof(hb, first_date)
        if b0:
            curves["XU100"] = hb[hb.index >= first_date] / b0 * 100
    except Exception as e:
        logger.warning("XU100 fetch failed: %s", e)
    names = {**BT_SIGS, "EW": "Evren eşit ağırlık (OE verisi olan)", "XU100": "BIST100 (XU100)"}
    fig = go.Figure()
    for k, c in curves.items():
        fig.add_trace(go.Scatter(x=c.index, y=c.values, mode="lines", name=names[k],
                                 line=dict(width=3 if k == "OE" else 1.5, dash="dot" if k in ("EW", "XU100") else "solid")))
    fig.update_layout(title="Kümülatif değer (başlangıç=100, nominal TRY, toplam getiri)", template="plotly_white", height=420,
                      margin=dict(l=10, r=10, t=40, b=10), legend=dict(orientation="h", y=-0.15))
    rows = []
    for k, c in curves.items():
        st = bt_stats(c)
        if st:
            rows.append({"Strateji": names[k], "Toplam %": round(st["total"] * 100, 1),
                         "CAGR %": None if st["cagr"] is None else round(st["cagr"] * 100, 1),
                         "Vol % (yıllık)": round(st["vol"] * 100, 1), "Max DD %": round(st["mdd"] * 100, 1),
                         "CAGR/Vol": None if st["rv"] is None else round(st["rv"], 2)})
    stats = pd.DataFrame(rows)
    pairs = list(zip(per_ret["OE"], per_ret["EW"]))
    hit = (sum(1 for a, b in pairs if a > b) / len(pairs)) if pairs else None
    # güncel OE sepeti (bugünkü sinyal)
    cur = {s: bt_signals(bd, T, lag) for s, bd in data.items()}
    cur = {s: v for s, v in cur.items() if v and v["OE"] is not None and v["OE"] > 0}
    top = sorted(cur.items(), key=lambda kv: kv[1]["OE"], reverse=True)[:top_n]
    picks = pd.DataFrame([{"Ticker": data[s]["sym"], "OE Yield %": round(v["OE"] * 100, 1),
                           "FCF Yield %": None if v["FCF"] is None else round(v["FCF"] * 100, 1),
                           "Kazanç Get. %": None if v["NI"] is None else round(v["NI"] * 100, 1),
                           "Tablo dönemi": v["end"].date().isoformat()} for s, v in top])
    msg = (f"✅ {len(data)} sanayi hissesi · {n_reb} rebalans ({first_date.date()} → {T.date()}) · ort. {np.mean(n_hold):.0f} hisse/sepet · "
           f"OE sepeti, evren eşit ağırlığı {('%' + format(hit * 100, '.0f') + ' dönemde geçti') if hit is not None else 'N/A'} "
           f"({len(pairs)} dönem)." + (f" ⚠️ Çekilemeyen ({len(failed)}): " + ", ".join(failed) if failed else ""))
    return fig, stats, picks, msg


BT_NOTES = """**⚠️ Deneysel — sonuçlar yatırım kararı için kullanılamaz.**
- **Dönem kısa:** yfinance yalnızca ~4 yıllık yıllık tablo verir → backtest ~3 yıl; istatistiksel olarak anlamsızdır.
- **Look-ahead kısmen önlenir:** tablo, dönem sonu + gecikme (varsayılan 90 gün) sonra kullanılır; gerçek yayın tarihi bilinmez, yeniden düzenlemeler (TMS 29 dahil) yansımaz.
- **Survivorship bias:** evren bugünün hisse listesi; çıkmış/sönmüş hisseler yok.
- **Hisse sayısı:** dönem sonu bilanço hisse sayısı × sonraki bölünme/bedelsiz çarpanı; sermaye artırımları/geri alımlar tam yakalanmaz.
- Banka/sigorta/GYO hariç (OE anlamlı değil). Getiriler nominal TRY, temettü dahil (Adj Close); maliyet tek yön bps, eşit ağırlık, buy-and-hold dönem içi."""


# ============================================================================
# GRADIO UI
# ============================================================================

def build_ui():
    with gr.Blocks(title="BIST Value Intelligence v3", theme=gr.themes.Soft()) as demo:
        gr.Markdown("# BIST Value Intelligence v3\n**⚠️ yfinance verisi point-in-time değildir; Backtest sekmesi yalnızca deneyseldir/göstergedir. "
                    "Eksik veri `N/A` gösterilir, asla sıfırla doldurulmaz. 12 aylık senaryolar heuristiktir, istatistiksel tahmin değildir. "
                    "Yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.**")
        with gr.Accordion("⚙️ Varsayımlar [A] (tüm sekmeler için)", open=False):
            with gr.Row():
                s_infl = gr.Slider(0, 100, 30, step=1, label="Enflasyon (%)")
                s_rw = gr.Slider(1, 30, 10, step=0.5, label="Reel iskonto oranı (%)")
                s_rtg = gr.Slider(0, 5, 1, step=0.25, label="Reel terminal büyüme (%)")
            with gr.Row():
                s_rg = gr.Slider(-10, 20, 3, step=0.5, label="Baz reel büyüme (%)")
                s_pt = gr.Slider(0, 100, 50, step=5, label="Enflasyonun nominal büyümeye geçişi (%)")
                s_cv = gr.Slider(0, 100, 50, step=5, label="12 ay içinde değer-fiyat farkının kapanma oranı (%)")
        PI = [s_infl, s_rw, s_rtg, s_rg, s_pt, s_cv]

        with gr.Tabs():
            with gr.Tab("📊 Market Scanner"):
                with gr.Row():
                    scan_btn = gr.Button("Run Scanner", variant="primary", scale=2)
                    force = gr.Checkbox(label="Force refresh", value=False)
                extra = gr.Textbox(label="Ek tickerlar (virgülle, örn: TRGYO,KONTR)", value="")
                with gr.Row():
                    f_seg = gr.Dropdown(["All", "Industrial", "Bank", "Insurance", "GYO"], value="All", label="Segment")
                    f_c = gr.Slider(0, 100, 0, step=5, label="Min composite")
                    f_m = gr.Slider(-100, 100, -100, step=5, label="Min MoS % (-100 = kapalı)")
                with gr.Row():
                    f_sort = gr.Dropdown(["Composite", "MoS %", "P/E", "P/B", "ROE %", "ROIC %", "FCF Yield %", "OE Yield %", "OE MoS %", "Risk",
                                          "Exp Return % (nom, incl div)", "Real Exp Return %", "Coverage %"],
                                         value="Composite", label="Sırala")
                    f_desc = gr.Checkbox(label="Azalan", value=True)
                    f_btn = gr.Button("Filtreyi uygula")
                status = gr.Markdown()
                table = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False, wrap=True)
                csv = gr.File(label="CSV indir")
                FI = [f_seg, f_c, f_m, f_sort, f_desc]

                def do_scan(frc, ext, *a, progress=gr.Progress()):
                    P = mk_params(*a[:6])
                    seg, c, m, so, de = a[6:]
                    df, failed = run_scan(frc, ext, P, progress)
                    if df.empty:
                        return None, None, "⚠️ Veri çekilemedi."
                    x, path = apply_filters(seg, c, m, so, de)
                    msg = f"✅ {len(df)} hisse tarandı · coverage ort. %{df['Coverage %'].mean():.0f}"
                    if failed:
                        msg += f" · ⚠️ Çekilemeyen ({len(failed)}): " + ", ".join(failed)
                    return x, path, msg

                def do_filter(*a):
                    x, path = apply_filters(*a)
                    return x, path

                scan_btn.click(do_scan, [force, extra] + PI + FI, [table, csv, status])
                f_btn.click(do_filter, FI, [table, csv])

            with gr.Tab("🔍 Company Analysis"):
                with gr.Row():
                    t1 = gr.Textbox(value="THYAO", label="Ticker", scale=2)
                    b1 = gr.Button("Analyze", variant="primary")
                md1 = gr.Markdown()
                with gr.Row():
                    p1 = gr.Plot()
                    r1 = gr.Plot()

                def company(t, *a):
                    P = mk_params(*a)
                    A, err = get_A(t, P)
                    if err:
                        return err, None, None
                    return md_report(A, P), price_fig(A["d"]["sym"], {"Intrinsic": A["iv"]}), radar_fig(A)

                b1.click(company, [t1] + PI, [md1, p1, r1])

            with gr.Tab("🧮 Intrinsic Value Calculator"):
                with gr.Row():
                    t2 = gr.Textbox(value="EREGL", label="Ticker", scale=2)
                    b2 = gr.Button("Calculate", variant="primary")
                md2 = gr.Markdown()
                p2 = gr.Plot()

                def calc(t, *a):
                    P = mk_params(*a)
                    A, err = get_A(t, P)
                    if err:
                        return err, None
                    d = A["d"]
                    g0, w, tg = assumptions(P)
                    L = [f"### {d['sym']} — {d['seg']}",
                         f"**Varsayımlar [A]:** yıl-1 nominal büyüme {fp(g0)} (reel {fp(P['rg'])}, enflasyon geçişi %{P['pt'] * 100:.0f}) · "
                         f"nominal iskonto {fp(w)} · nominal terminal {fp(tg)}",
                         f"**Girdiler [R/D]:** FCFF {fm(d['fcff'], 0)} (FCF + faiz×(1−vergi{' varsayım' if d['tax_assumed'] else ''})) · "
                         f"net borç {fm(d['net_debt'], 0)} · hisse {fm(d['shares'], 0)} · vergi {fp(d['tax_rate'], 0)}"]
                    if d["oe_parts"]:
                        o = d["oe_parts"]
                        L.append(f"**Owner Earnings [D]:** NI {fm(o['ni'], 0)} + D&A {fm(o['da'], 0)} − bakım capex (tahmin=min(capex, D&A)) "
                                 f"{fm(o['maint_est'], 0)} + ΔİS sermayesi {fm(o['dwc'], 0)} = **{fm(d['oe'], 0)}** (toplam capex {fm(o['capex_total'], 0)}) · OE Yield {fp(d['oe_yield'])}")
                    L.append("\n| Yöntem | Değer | Not |\n|---|---|---|")
                    for k, (v, n) in A["methods"].items():
                        L.append(f"| {k} | {fm(v)} | {n} |")
                    L.append(f"\n**Intrinsic (medyan): {fm(A['iv'])}** · Fiyat {fm(d['price'])} · MoS {fp(A['mos'])}")
                    names = [k for k, (v, _) in A["methods"].items() if v]
                    vals = [A["methods"][k][0] for k in names]
                    f = go.Figure(go.Bar(x=["Price"] + names + ["Intrinsic"], y=[d["price"]] + vals + [A["iv"] or 0]))
                    f.update_layout(template="plotly_white", height=340, margin=dict(l=10, r=10, t=20, b=10))
                    return "\n".join(L), f

                b2.click(calc, [t2] + PI, [md2, p2])

            with gr.Tab("↩️ Reverse DCF"):
                with gr.Row():
                    t3 = gr.Textbox(value="TOASO", label="Ticker", scale=2)
                    b3 = gr.Button("Solve", variant="primary")
                md3 = gr.Markdown()
                tb3 = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False)

                def rev(t, *a):
                    P = mk_params(*a)
                    A, err = get_A(t, P)
                    if err:
                        return err, None
                    d = A["d"]
                    rows, note = reverse_dcf(d, P)
                    if rows is None:
                        return f"**{d['sym']}**: ⚠️ {note}", None
                    g0, _, _ = assumptions(P)
                    h = d["s"]["fcf"]
                    hist = f"{fp((h[0] / h[2]) ** 0.5 - 1)}" if (h[0] or 0) > 0 and (h[2] or 0) > 0 else "N/A"
                    md = (f"**{d['sym']}** fiyat {fm(d['price'])} → piyasanın fiyatladığı FCF büyümesi (5 yıl, terminale doğru sönümlenir).\n\n"
                          f"Mevcut varsayım yıl-1 büyüme: {fp(g0)} · Tarihsel FCF CAGR (2y, nominal): {hist}\n\n"
                          "Not: Zorunlu bir 'doğru' yoktur; implied büyüme makul görünmüyorsa piyasa beklentisi ya aşırı iyimser ya da kötümserdir.")
                    return md, pd.DataFrame(rows)

                b3.click(rev, [t3] + PI, [md3, tb3])

            with gr.Tab("💎 Financial Quality"):
                with gr.Row():
                    t4 = gr.Textbox(value="BIMAS", label="Ticker", scale=2)
                    b4 = gr.Button("Show", variant="primary")
                md4 = gr.Markdown()
                tb4 = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False)
                tb4b = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False)

                def qual(t, *a):
                    P = mk_params(*a)
                    A, err = get_A(t, P)
                    if err:
                        return err, None, None
                    q, d = A["q"], A["d"]
                    pc = lambda x: fp(x)
                    rows = [("ROE [D]", pc(q["roe"])), ("ROE (reel) [D]", pc(real_ret(q["roe"], P["infl"]))), ("ROA [D]", pc(q["roa"])),
                            ("ROIC [D]", pc(q["roic"])), ("Gross margin [D]", pc(q["gm"])), ("Operating margin [D]", pc(q["opm"])),
                            ("Net margin [D]", pc(q["npm"])), ("Debt/Equity % [D]", fm(q["de"], 0)), ("Net debt/EBITDA [D]", fm(q["nd_ebitda"])),
                            ("Current ratio [D]", fm(q["cr"])), ("Interest coverage [D]", fm(q["icov"])), ("FCF/NI [D]", fm(q["fcf_conv"])),
                            ("FCF variation (CV) [D]", fm(q["fcf_cv"])), ("Revenue growth nominal [D]", pc(q["rev_g"])),
                            ("Revenue growth real [D]", pc(real_ret(q["rev_g"], P["infl"]))), ("Earnings growth nominal [D]", pc(q["ni_g"])),
                            ("Earnings growth real [D]", pc(real_ret(q["ni_g"], P["infl"]))), ("Equity/Assets [D]", pc(q["eq_ta"]))]
                    sc, n, comps = A["pio"]
                    cp = [(c, "N/A" if v is None else ("1" if v else "0")) for c, v in comps]
                    md = (f"**{d['sym']}** — Piotroski: **{sc}/{n}** (hesaplanabilen {n}/9)" +
                          ("" if n == 9 else " ⚠️ eksik bileşen var; skor tam değildir.") +
                          (" Bankalar için Piotroski sınırlı anlam taşır." if d["seg"] in ("Bank", "Insurance") else ""))
                    return md, pd.DataFrame(rows, columns=["Metric", "Value"]), pd.DataFrame(cp, columns=["Piotroski component", "Result"])

                b4.click(qual, [t4] + PI, [md4, tb4, tb4b])

            with gr.Tab("🛡️ Risk Analysis"):
                with gr.Row():
                    t5 = gr.Textbox(value="PGSUS", label="Ticker", scale=2)
                    b5 = gr.Button("Assess", variant="primary")
                md5 = gr.Markdown()
                tb5 = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False)

                def risk_tab(t, *a):
                    P = mk_params(*a)
                    A, err = get_A(t, P)
                    if err:
                        return err, None
                    rows = [{"Flag": n, "Weight": w, "Status": s or "N/A", "Rule": dt} for n, w, s, dt in A["flags"]]
                    return (f"**{A['d']['sym']}** Risk skoru: **{fm(A['risk'], 0)}/100** (yalnızca değerlendirilebilen bayraklar üzerinden; "
                            f"düşük = iyi). Coverage {fp(A['cov'], 0)}."), pd.DataFrame(rows)

                b5.click(risk_tab, [t5] + PI, [md5, tb5])

            with gr.Tab("🏭 Sector Comparison"):
                with gr.Row():
                    t6 = gr.Textbox(value="EREGL", label="Ticker (opsiyonel)", scale=2)
                    b6 = gr.Button("Compare", variant="primary")
                md6 = gr.Markdown()
                tb6 = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False)
                p6 = gr.Plot()

                def sector(t, *a):
                    P = mk_params(*a)
                    ds = cached_ds()
                    if not ds:
                        return "Önce Market Scanner'ı çalıştırın (medyanlar önbellekteki hisselerden hesaplanır).", None, None
                    med = build_medians(ds)
                    rows = []
                    for (seg, sec), m in sorted(med.items()):
                        r = {"Segment": seg, "Sector": sec, "Peers": sum(1 for d in ds if d["seg"] == seg and d["sector"] == sec)}
                        for f in ("pe", "pb", "ev_ebitda", "ev_fcf", "ps", "fcf_yield", "earn_yield"):
                            v, n = m[f]
                            r[f] = None if v is None else round(v, 3)
                        rows.append(r)
                    fig, md = None, f"Sektör medyanı için en az {MIN_PEERS} geçerli peer gerekir; yetersizse `None`."
                    d = fetch(norm_sym(t)) if t.strip() else None
                    if d:
                        m = med.get((d["seg"], d["sector"]))
                        keys = ["pe", "pb", "ev_ebitda", "ps"]
                        cv_ = [d[k] for k in keys]
                        mv = [m[k][0] if m else None for k in keys]
                        fig = go.Figure([go.Bar(name=d["sym"], x=keys, y=cv_), go.Bar(name="Sector median", x=keys, y=mv)])
                        fig.update_layout(barmode="group", template="plotly_white", height=340, margin=dict(l=10, r=10, t=20, b=10))
                        md = f"**{d['sym']}** — {d['seg']} / {d['sector']}. " + md
                    return md, pd.DataFrame(rows), fig

                b6.click(sector, [t6] + PI, [md6, tb6, p6])

            with gr.Tab("🎯 12-Month Scenarios"):
                with gr.Row():
                    t7 = gr.Textbox(value="AKBNK", label="Ticker", scale=2)
                    pb = gr.Slider(0, 100, 25, step=5, label="Bear olasılığı (%)")
                    pm = gr.Slider(0, 100, 50, step=5, label="Base olasılığı (%) — Bull = kalan")
                    b7 = gr.Button("Run", variant="primary")
                md7 = gr.Markdown()
                tb7 = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False)
                p7 = gr.Plot()

                def scen(t, bear, base, *a):
                    P = mk_params(*a)
                    pr = validate_probs(bear, base)
                    if pr is None:
                        return "⚠️ Bear + Base 100'ü aşamaz (Bull = 100 − Bear − Base).", None, None
                    A, err = get_A(t, P, pr)
                    if err:
                        return err, None, None
                    d, e = A["d"], A["exp"]
                    rows = [{"Scenario": o["Scenario"], "Real growth": o["Real growth"], "Real disc. rate": o["Real disc. rate"],
                             "Multiple factor": o["Multiple factor"], "Intrinsic": None if o["Intrinsic"] is None else round(o["Intrinsic"], 2),
                             "12M target": None if o["Target"] is None else round(o["Target"], 2),
                             "Probability": f"{o['Prob'] * 100:.0f}%"} for o in A["scen"]]
                    if e is None:
                        return f"**{d['sym']}**: ⚠️ Senaryo üretilemedi (intrinsic value hesaplanamadı).", pd.DataFrame(rows), None
                    md = (f"**{d['sym']}** · Olasılık-ağırlıklı hedef **{fm(e['pw'])}** · Beklenen nominal fiyat getirisi {fp(e['nominal'])} · "
                          f"Temettü-dahil nominal {fp(e['total'])}" + ("" if e["dy_known"] else " (temettü verisi yok, 0 sayıldı)") +
                          f" · Reel (temettü-dahil) {fp(e['real'])} · Reel fiyat getirisi {fp(e['real_price'])}\n\n"
                          f"*Heuristik: hedef = fiyat + k×(senaryo değeri − fiyat), k={P['conv'] * 100:.0f}%, çarpan faktörü uygulanır. "
                          "İstatistiksel olarak doğrulanmış tahmin değildir. Temettü yalnızca bir kez eklenir.*")
                    f = go.Figure(go.Bar(x=["Price", "Bear", "Base", "Bull", "Prob-weighted"],
                                         y=[d["price"]] + [o["Target"] for o in A["scen"]] + [e["pw"]]))
                    f.update_layout(template="plotly_white", height=340, margin=dict(l=10, r=10, t=20, b=10))
                    return md, pd.DataFrame(rows), f

                b7.click(scen, [t7, pb, pm] + PI, [md7, tb7, p7])

            with gr.Tab("📋 Data Quality Monitor"):
                b8 = gr.Button("Check Data Quality", variant="primary")
                md8 = gr.Markdown()
                tb8 = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False, wrap=True)

                def dq(progress=gr.Progress()):
                    rows, failed = [], []
                    for i, s in enumerate(BIST_UNIVERSE):
                        progress((i + 1) / len(BIST_UNIVERSE), desc=f"Checking {s}")
                        was = _cget(f"t_{s}") is not None
                        d = fetch(s)
                        if d is None:
                            failed.append(s.replace(".IS", ""))
                            continue
                        c = coverage(d)
                        rows.append({"Ticker": d["sym"], "Segment": d["seg"], "Coverage %": round(c * 100),
                                     "Statement date": d["stmt_date"].date().isoformat() if d["stmt_date"] else "N/A",
                                     "Age (days)": d["age"], "Status": "OK" if c >= 0.7 and not d["flags"] else "CHECK",
                                     "Flags": "; ".join(d["flags"]) or "—"})
                        if not was:
                            time.sleep(REQUEST_DELAY_SEC * 0.5)
                    df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
                    avg = f"{df['Coverage %'].mean():.0f}%" if not df.empty else "N/A"
                    return (f"Ortalama coverage: **{avg}** · Başarılı {len(rows)} · Çekilemeyen {len(failed)}: "
                            + (", ".join(failed) or "—")), df

                b8.click(dq, None, [md8, tb8])

            with gr.Tab("📈 Backtest (OE, deneysel)"):
                gr.Markdown(BT_NOTES)
                with gr.Row():
                    bt_top = gr.Slider(5, 30, 10, step=1, label="Sepet büyüklüğü (top N)")
                    bt_step = gr.Dropdown([3, 6, 12], value=3, label="Rebalans (ay)")
                    bt_lag = gr.Slider(30, 180, BT_DEFAULT_LAG, step=15, label="Yayın gecikmesi (gün)")
                with gr.Row():
                    bt_cost = gr.Slider(0, 100, 20, step=5, label="İşlem maliyeti (bps, tek yön)")
                    bt_n = gr.Slider(20, len(BIST_UNIVERSE), len(BIST_UNIVERSE), step=1, label="Evren: ilk N hisse (az = hızlı)")
                    bt_btn = gr.Button("Backtest çalıştır", variant="primary")
                bt_msg = gr.Markdown()
                bt_plot = gr.Plot()
                bt_stats_df = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False, label="Performans")
                gr.Markdown("**Güncel OE sepeti** (bugünkü sinyal; öneri değildir)")
                bt_picks = gr.Dataframe(interactive=False)

                def do_bt(top, step, lag, cost, n, progress=gr.Progress()):
                    fig, stats, picks, msg = run_backtest(BIST_UNIVERSE[: int(n)], int(step), int(top), int(lag), float(cost), progress)
                    return msg, fig, stats, picks

                bt_btn.click(do_bt, [bt_top, bt_step, bt_lag, bt_cost, bt_n], [bt_msg, bt_plot, bt_stats_df, bt_picks])

            with gr.Tab("📐 Methodology"):
                gr.Markdown(METHODOLOGY)
                b9 = gr.Button("Run self-test (synthetic data)")
                o9 = gr.Textbox(label="Self-test", lines=18, interactive=False)
                b9.click(self_test, None, o9)
    return demo


METHODOLOGY = """
### Değerleme mimarisi
- **DCF (sanayi/GYO dışı):** FCFF = FCF + faiz×(1−vergi) (Yahoo FCF'si faiz sonrası olduğu için borç çift sayılmasın diye). 5 yıl, büyüme yıl-1'den terminale doğrusal sönümlenir; EV − net borç = özsermaye; / hisse. Girdi eksik, FCFF ≤ 0 veya iskonto ≤ terminal büyüme ise **hesaplanmaz**.
- **Owner Earnings:** NI + D&A − bakım capex + ΔİSermayesi. Bakım capex = min(toplam capex, D&A) **tahminidir**; veri eksikse yöntem kullanılmaz. Özsermaye nakit akışı olduğu için net borç düşülmez. **OE Yield** = OE / piyasa değeri; sanayi segmentinde Valuation skoruna (ağırlık 1) dahildir, taramada OE Yield / OE Value / OE MoS sütunları vardır.
- **Banka/Sigorta:** Gordon gerekçeli P/B = (sürdürülebilir ROE − g)/(COE − g) × defter değeri. FCF/EV-EBITDA kullanılmaz. Sermaye yeterliliği/aktif kalitesi Yahoo'da yok.
- **GYO:** NAV vekili = defter değeri (ekspertiz NAV'ı yok), P/NAV. Doluluk verisi yok.
- **Relative:** sektör medyanı (en az 5 geçerli peer) P/E, P/B, EV/EBITDA → hisse başına değer.
- **Intrinsic = mevcut yöntemlerin medyanı.** MoS = (IV − fiyat)/IV.
- **Reverse DCF:** fiyatı veren yıl-1 FCF büyümesi (bisection), iskonto oranı ±3 puan duyarlılığı.
- **Enflasyon:** iskonto ve terminal büyüme reel girilir, nominale çevrilir; enflasyonun yalnızca ayarlanabilir bir kısmı (geçiş oranı) kâr büyümesine yansır. Reel getiri = (1+nominal)/(1+enflasyon) − 1.
- **Senaryolar:** Bear/Base/Bull = reel büyüme ∓4 puan, reel iskonto +3/−2 puan, çarpan faktörü 0.85/1.0/1.10; hedef = fiyat + k×(değer − fiyat). Olasılıklar ayarlanabilir, toplam %100 (Bull = kalan).

### Skorlama (0-100, açıklanabilir)
Composite = ağırlıklı ortalama (mevcut bileşenler üzerinden yeniden normalize) × min(1, coverage/0.7).
| Segment | Valuation | Quality | Strength | Risk (ters) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sanayi | 35 | 30 | 20 | 15 |
| Banka | 40 | 35 | 10 | 15 |
| Sigorta | 40 | 30 | 15 | 15 |
| GYO | 45 | 20 | 20 | 15 |

Risk (0-100): 10 bayrak (distress, kaldıraç, likidite, negatif FCF, kâr/marj bozulması, CFO-NI ayrışması, seyrelme, aşırı değerleme, veri güvenilirliği); yalnızca değerlendirilebilen bayrakların ağırlığı üzerinden hesaplanır. Piotroski 9 bileşenli; hesaplanamayan bileşen "N/A" olur ve skor `x/n` olarak gösterilir.

### Bilinen veri sınırlamaları
- yfinance point-in-time değildir; Backtest sekmesi deneyseldir (≈3 yıl, survivorship bias, tahmini yayın gecikmesi) ve kanıt değil göstergedir. Bilanço tarihleri ve kapsam hisseden hisseye değişir.
- Yıllık tablolar gecikmelidir; TFRS/enflasyon muhasebesi (TMS 29) etkileri nominal rakamları çarpıtabilir.
- Evren: gömülü liste + eklediğiniz tickerlar (tüm BIST listesi Yahoo'dan ücretsiz çekilemez).
- Sektör/segment sınıflaması Yahoo `industry` alanına dayanır; peer sayısı <5 ise medyan hesaplanmaz.
- Sonuçlar araştırma/eğitim amaçlıdır, yatırım tavsiyesi değildir.
"""

if __name__ == "__main__":
    logger.info("Self-test:\n%s", self_test())
    build_ui().launch(server_name="0.0.0.0", server_port=7860)