Spaces:
Running
Running
Commit ·
bba0cac
1
Parent(s): bcf0c50
Add C-Level strategy view draft and auto-deploy workflow
Browse files- Add strategy_v2.py: Simplified C-level dashboard with:
- 4 input sliders (portfolio, lease price, mfg cost, cycles)
- Break-even hero metric at portfolio level
- Total portfolio profit display
- Unit economics (revenue/cost per product & portfolio)
- Circular vs Linear comparison cards
- Cost/Revenue trajectory chart by cycles
- At Scale section with customer base projection
- 5-year cumulative profit chart
- Update deploy-hf.md skill for automatic deployment
- Update CLAUDE.md with HF deployment instructions
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
- .claude/skills/deploy-hf.md +30 -30
- CLAUDE.md +19 -6
- strategy_v2.py +449 -0
.claude/skills/deploy-hf.md
CHANGED
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@@ -5,51 +5,51 @@ Deploy the simulator to Hugging Face Space.
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## Usage
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```
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/deploy-hf
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```
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## Instructions
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```bash
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git checkout main
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```
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```bash
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git push hf main
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```
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```
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##
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- HF remote must be configured with write access
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- Uses stored HF_TOKEN secret
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- Creates deployment summary
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## After Deployment
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The Space
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## Usage
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```
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/deploy-hf [commit message]
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```
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## Instructions
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This skill automatically commits and deploys changes to Hugging Face Spaces.
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1. **Stage and commit changes:**
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- Stage modified files (app.py, strategy_v2.py, etc.)
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- Generate commit message from changes if not provided
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- Commit with Co-Authored-By tag
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2. **Push to HF Space:**
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```bash
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git push hf main
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```
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3. **Confirm deployment:**
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- Output the HF Spaces URL
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- Note that rebuild takes 1-2 minutes
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## Auto-Deploy Workflow
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When iterating on this project, ALWAYS deploy after making changes:
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```bash
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# 1. Add changed files
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git add app.py strategy_v2.py # or specific files changed
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# 2. Commit with descriptive message
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git commit -m "Description of changes
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>"
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# 3. Push to HF
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git push hf main
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```
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## Prerequisites
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- HF remote configured: `git remote add hf https://huggingface.co/spaces/Liisdotcom/simulator`
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- Write access to the Space
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## After Deployment
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Live at: https://huggingface.co/spaces/Liisdotcom/simulator
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The Space rebuilds automatically (1-2 minutes).
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CLAUDE.md
CHANGED
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@@ -129,15 +129,28 @@ revenue_per_customer = lease_price * lease_term
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## Deployment
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1. Go to share.streamlit.io
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2. Connect GitHub repo (must be public or grant org access)
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3. Deploy `app.py` from `main` branch
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**
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```bash
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pip install -r requirements.txt
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streamlit run app.py
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```
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## Tech Stack
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## Deployment
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### Hugging Face Spaces (Primary)
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**IMPORTANT: Always deploy after each iteration!**
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After making any changes, commit and push to HF:
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```bash
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git add <changed-files>
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git commit -m "Description
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Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>"
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git push hf main
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```
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Live at: https://huggingface.co/spaces/Liisdotcom/simulator
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Use `/deploy-hf` skill or manually run the commands above.
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### Local Development
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```bash
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pip install -r requirements.txt
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streamlit run app.py # Main dashboard
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streamlit run strategy_v2.py # C-Level strategy view (draft)
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```
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## Tech Stack
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strategy_v2.py
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"""
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LiiS Circular Economy Simulator - C-Level View (Draft)
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Simplified executive dashboard focused on portfolio-level economics.
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Run with: streamlit run strategy_v2.py
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"""
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import streamlit as st
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import plotly.graph_objects as go
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import pandas as pd
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import plotly.io as pio
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# Set Plotly to dark theme
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pio.templates.default = "plotly_dark"
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# Page config
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st.set_page_config(
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page_title="LiiS Strategy",
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page_icon="💼",
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layout="wide",
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)
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| 22 |
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# Custom CSS
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| 24 |
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st.markdown("""
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| 25 |
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<style>
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| 26 |
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.main-header {
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| 27 |
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #1a472a 0%, #2ecc71 100%);
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padding: 1.5rem 2rem;
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border-radius: 12px;
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margin-bottom: 1.5rem;
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| 31 |
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box-shadow: 0 4px 20px rgba(46, 204, 113, 0.3);
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}
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.main-header h1 { color: white; margin: 0; font-size: 2rem; }
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| 34 |
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.main-header p { color: rgba(255,255,255,0.9); margin: 0.5rem 0 0 0; }
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[data-testid="stMetricValue"] { font-size: 2rem; }
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.hero-metric {
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background: linear-gradient(135deg, #2c3e50 0%, #34495e 100%);
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padding: 1.5rem;
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border-radius: 12px;
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| 40 |
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border-left: 4px solid #2ecc71;
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margin-bottom: 1rem;
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| 42 |
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}
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| 43 |
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.hero-metric h2 { color: #2ecc71; margin: 0; font-size: 2.5rem; }
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| 44 |
+
.hero-metric p { color: #888; margin: 0.3rem 0 0 0; font-size: 0.9rem; }
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| 45 |
+
.tier-header {
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color: #888;
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font-size: 0.75rem;
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| 48 |
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text-transform: uppercase;
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| 49 |
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letter-spacing: 1px;
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| 50 |
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margin-bottom: 0.5rem;
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| 51 |
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}
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| 52 |
+
.comparison-card {
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| 53 |
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background: #2c3e50;
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| 54 |
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padding: 1.5rem;
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| 55 |
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border-radius: 12px;
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| 56 |
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text-align: center;
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| 57 |
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}
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| 58 |
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.winner { border: 2px solid #2ecc71; }
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| 59 |
+
</style>
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| 60 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
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+
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| 62 |
+
# Header
|
| 63 |
+
st.markdown("""
|
| 64 |
+
<div class="main-header">
|
| 65 |
+
<h1>💼 LiiS Strategy Dashboard</h1>
|
| 66 |
+
<p>C-Level View — Portfolio Economics & Break-Even Analysis</p>
|
| 67 |
+
</div>
|
| 68 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 69 |
+
|
| 70 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 71 |
+
# SIDEBAR - INPUT CONTROLS (4 Sliders)
|
| 72 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 73 |
+
st.sidebar.header("Portfolio Parameters")
|
| 74 |
+
st.sidebar.caption("Adjust to see impact on profitability")
|
| 75 |
+
|
| 76 |
+
portfolio_size = st.sidebar.slider(
|
| 77 |
+
"Product Portfolio",
|
| 78 |
+
min_value=50, max_value=1000, value=300, step=50,
|
| 79 |
+
help="Number of units in your fleet"
|
| 80 |
+
)
|
| 81 |
+
|
| 82 |
+
monthly_lease = st.sidebar.slider(
|
| 83 |
+
"Monthly Lease Price",
|
| 84 |
+
min_value=250, max_value=650, value=250, step=25,
|
| 85 |
+
format="%d NOK",
|
| 86 |
+
help="What customers pay per month"
|
| 87 |
+
)
|
| 88 |
+
|
| 89 |
+
mfg_cost = st.sidebar.slider(
|
| 90 |
+
"Manufacturing Cost",
|
| 91 |
+
min_value=2500, max_value=7500, value=2500, step=250,
|
| 92 |
+
format="%d NOK",
|
| 93 |
+
help="Cost to produce one unit"
|
| 94 |
+
)
|
| 95 |
+
|
| 96 |
+
reuse_cycles = st.sidebar.slider(
|
| 97 |
+
"Reuse Cycles",
|
| 98 |
+
min_value=2, max_value=10, value=3, step=1,
|
| 99 |
+
help="How many families use each product"
|
| 100 |
+
)
|
| 101 |
+
|
| 102 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 103 |
+
# CALCULATIONS
|
| 104 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 105 |
+
|
| 106 |
+
# Per-product economics
|
| 107 |
+
lease_term_months = 12 # Each cycle is 12 months
|
| 108 |
+
revenue_per_product = monthly_lease * lease_term_months * reuse_cycles
|
| 109 |
+
|
| 110 |
+
# Costs per product (simplified model)
|
| 111 |
+
logistics_per_cycle = 150 # NOK - pickup + delivery per cycle
|
| 112 |
+
repair_per_cycle = 200 # NOK - average repair/refurb per cycle
|
| 113 |
+
total_cost_per_product = mfg_cost + (logistics_per_cycle + repair_per_cycle) * reuse_cycles
|
| 114 |
+
blended_cost_per_product = total_cost_per_product / reuse_cycles
|
| 115 |
+
|
| 116 |
+
# Profit per product
|
| 117 |
+
profit_per_product = revenue_per_product - total_cost_per_product
|
| 118 |
+
operating_margin = (profit_per_product / revenue_per_product) * 100 if revenue_per_product > 0 else 0
|
| 119 |
+
|
| 120 |
+
# Portfolio level
|
| 121 |
+
revenue_portfolio = portfolio_size * revenue_per_product
|
| 122 |
+
cost_portfolio = portfolio_size * total_cost_per_product
|
| 123 |
+
blended_cost_portfolio = portfolio_size * blended_cost_per_product
|
| 124 |
+
profit_portfolio = portfolio_size * profit_per_product
|
| 125 |
+
|
| 126 |
+
# Break-even calculation (months)
|
| 127 |
+
monthly_revenue_portfolio = portfolio_size * monthly_lease
|
| 128 |
+
monthly_cost_portfolio = portfolio_size * (repair_per_cycle / lease_term_months) # Monthly degradation
|
| 129 |
+
initial_investment = portfolio_size * mfg_cost
|
| 130 |
+
|
| 131 |
+
# Cumulative profit over time to find break-even
|
| 132 |
+
breakeven_month = None
|
| 133 |
+
cumulative = -initial_investment
|
| 134 |
+
for month in range(1, 121):
|
| 135 |
+
# Add logistics cost at cycle transitions
|
| 136 |
+
if month % lease_term_months == 0:
|
| 137 |
+
cumulative -= portfolio_size * logistics_per_cycle
|
| 138 |
+
cumulative += monthly_revenue_portfolio - monthly_cost_portfolio
|
| 139 |
+
if cumulative >= 0 and breakeven_month is None:
|
| 140 |
+
breakeven_month = month
|
| 141 |
+
break
|
| 142 |
+
|
| 143 |
+
if breakeven_month is None:
|
| 144 |
+
breakeven_month = "> 120"
|
| 145 |
+
|
| 146 |
+
# Linear model comparison
|
| 147 |
+
linear_margin = 0.20 # 20% typical retail margin
|
| 148 |
+
linear_profit_per_sale = mfg_cost * linear_margin / (1 - linear_margin) # Selling at cost + margin
|
| 149 |
+
linear_revenue_per_product = mfg_cost / (1 - linear_margin)
|
| 150 |
+
linear_breakeven_units = int(initial_investment / linear_profit_per_sale) if linear_profit_per_sale > 0 else 999
|
| 151 |
+
# Time to sell that many units (assume 1 sale per unit in portfolio per cycle)
|
| 152 |
+
linear_breakeven_months = max(24, int(linear_breakeven_units / portfolio_size * lease_term_months))
|
| 153 |
+
|
| 154 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 155 |
+
# TIER 1: PRIMARY METRICS
|
| 156 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 157 |
+
st.markdown('<p class="tier-header">Tier 1 — Primary Metrics</p>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 158 |
+
|
| 159 |
+
hero_col1, hero_col2 = st.columns(2)
|
| 160 |
+
|
| 161 |
+
with hero_col1:
|
| 162 |
+
st.markdown(f"""
|
| 163 |
+
<div class="hero-metric">
|
| 164 |
+
<p>BREAK EVEN</p>
|
| 165 |
+
<h2>{breakeven_month} MONTHS</h2>
|
| 166 |
+
<p>For entire portfolio of {portfolio_size:,} units</p>
|
| 167 |
+
</div>
|
| 168 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 169 |
+
|
| 170 |
+
with hero_col2:
|
| 171 |
+
profit_color = "#2ecc71" if profit_portfolio > 0 else "#e74c3c"
|
| 172 |
+
st.markdown(f"""
|
| 173 |
+
<div class="hero-metric">
|
| 174 |
+
<p>TOTAL PORTFOLIO PROFIT</p>
|
| 175 |
+
<h2 style="color: {profit_color}">{profit_portfolio:,.0f} NOK</h2>
|
| 176 |
+
<p>Net revenue across {portfolio_size:,} units over {reuse_cycles} cycles</p>
|
| 177 |
+
</div>
|
| 178 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 179 |
+
|
| 180 |
+
st.markdown("---")
|
| 181 |
+
|
| 182 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 183 |
+
# TIER 2: SUPPORTING METRICS
|
| 184 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 185 |
+
st.markdown('<p class="tier-header">Tier 2 — Unit Economics</p>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 186 |
+
|
| 187 |
+
metric_col1, metric_col2, metric_col3 = st.columns(3)
|
| 188 |
+
|
| 189 |
+
with metric_col1:
|
| 190 |
+
st.metric(
|
| 191 |
+
"Revenue per Product",
|
| 192 |
+
f"{revenue_per_product:,.0f} NOK",
|
| 193 |
+
delta=f"{monthly_lease} × {lease_term_months}mo × {reuse_cycles} cycles",
|
| 194 |
+
help="Total revenue generated by one product over its lifetime"
|
| 195 |
+
)
|
| 196 |
+
st.metric(
|
| 197 |
+
"Revenue per Portfolio",
|
| 198 |
+
f"{revenue_portfolio:,.0f} NOK",
|
| 199 |
+
delta=f"{portfolio_size:,} units",
|
| 200 |
+
help="Total portfolio revenue"
|
| 201 |
+
)
|
| 202 |
+
|
| 203 |
+
with metric_col2:
|
| 204 |
+
st.metric(
|
| 205 |
+
"Blended Cost per Product",
|
| 206 |
+
f"{blended_cost_per_product:,.0f} NOK",
|
| 207 |
+
delta=f"Total {total_cost_per_product:,.0f} ÷ {reuse_cycles} cycles",
|
| 208 |
+
help="Average cost per cycle (manufacturing + logistics + repair)"
|
| 209 |
+
)
|
| 210 |
+
st.metric(
|
| 211 |
+
"Blended Cost per Portfolio",
|
| 212 |
+
f"{blended_cost_portfolio:,.0f} NOK",
|
| 213 |
+
delta=f"{portfolio_size:,} units",
|
| 214 |
+
help="Total portfolio blended cost"
|
| 215 |
+
)
|
| 216 |
+
|
| 217 |
+
with metric_col3:
|
| 218 |
+
margin_color = "normal" if operating_margin >= 50 else "off"
|
| 219 |
+
st.metric(
|
| 220 |
+
"Operating Margin",
|
| 221 |
+
f"{operating_margin:.0f}%",
|
| 222 |
+
delta="healthy" if operating_margin >= 50 else "review pricing",
|
| 223 |
+
delta_color=margin_color,
|
| 224 |
+
help="Profit / Revenue - same for all units"
|
| 225 |
+
)
|
| 226 |
+
st.metric(
|
| 227 |
+
"Profit per Product",
|
| 228 |
+
f"{profit_per_product:,.0f} NOK",
|
| 229 |
+
delta="lifetime profit",
|
| 230 |
+
help="Revenue - Total Cost per product"
|
| 231 |
+
)
|
| 232 |
+
|
| 233 |
+
st.markdown("---")
|
| 234 |
+
|
| 235 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 236 |
+
# CHART 1: Break Even Comparison
|
| 237 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 238 |
+
st.markdown('<p class="tier-header">Tier 2 — Model Comparison</p>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 239 |
+
st.subheader("Break Even: Circular vs Linear Model")
|
| 240 |
+
|
| 241 |
+
comp_col1, comp_col2 = st.columns(2)
|
| 242 |
+
|
| 243 |
+
with comp_col1:
|
| 244 |
+
st.markdown(f"""
|
| 245 |
+
<div class="comparison-card">
|
| 246 |
+
<p style="color: #888; margin: 0;">LINEAR MODEL</p>
|
| 247 |
+
<h2 style="color: #e74c3c; margin: 0.5rem 0;">{linear_breakeven_months} MONTHS</h2>
|
| 248 |
+
<p style="color: #888; margin: 0;">{linear_margin*100:.0f}% margin</p>
|
| 249 |
+
<p style="color: #666; font-size: 0.8rem; margin-top: 0.5rem;">Sell once, done</p>
|
| 250 |
+
</div>
|
| 251 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 252 |
+
|
| 253 |
+
with comp_col2:
|
| 254 |
+
st.markdown(f"""
|
| 255 |
+
<div class="comparison-card winner">
|
| 256 |
+
<p style="color: #888; margin: 0;">CIRCULAR MODEL</p>
|
| 257 |
+
<h2 style="color: #2ecc71; margin: 0.5rem 0;">{breakeven_month} MONTHS</h2>
|
| 258 |
+
<p style="color: #2ecc71; margin: 0;">{operating_margin:.0f}% margin ← BETTER</p>
|
| 259 |
+
<p style="color: #666; font-size: 0.8rem; margin-top: 0.5rem;">Reuse {reuse_cycles}× per product</p>
|
| 260 |
+
</div>
|
| 261 |
+
""", unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 262 |
+
|
| 263 |
+
st.markdown("---")
|
| 264 |
+
|
| 265 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 266 |
+
# CHART 2: Blended Cost vs Revenue Across Cycles
|
| 267 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 268 |
+
st.subheader("Cost & Revenue Trajectory by Reuse Cycles")
|
| 269 |
+
|
| 270 |
+
cycles_range = list(range(2, 11))
|
| 271 |
+
chart_data = []
|
| 272 |
+
|
| 273 |
+
for c in cycles_range:
|
| 274 |
+
rev = monthly_lease * lease_term_months * c
|
| 275 |
+
total_cost = mfg_cost + (logistics_per_cycle + repair_per_cycle) * c
|
| 276 |
+
blended = total_cost / c
|
| 277 |
+
profit = rev - total_cost
|
| 278 |
+
margin = (profit / rev) * 100 if rev > 0 else 0
|
| 279 |
+
|
| 280 |
+
chart_data.append({
|
| 281 |
+
"Cycles": c,
|
| 282 |
+
"Revenue": rev,
|
| 283 |
+
"Total Cost": total_cost,
|
| 284 |
+
"Blended Cost": blended,
|
| 285 |
+
"Profit": profit,
|
| 286 |
+
"Margin": margin,
|
| 287 |
+
})
|
| 288 |
+
|
| 289 |
+
chart_df = pd.DataFrame(chart_data)
|
| 290 |
+
|
| 291 |
+
fig_cycles = go.Figure()
|
| 292 |
+
|
| 293 |
+
# Revenue line (constant per cycle × cycles)
|
| 294 |
+
fig_cycles.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 295 |
+
x=chart_df["Cycles"],
|
| 296 |
+
y=chart_df["Revenue"],
|
| 297 |
+
mode="lines+markers",
|
| 298 |
+
name="Revenue per Product",
|
| 299 |
+
line=dict(color="#2ecc71", width=3),
|
| 300 |
+
marker=dict(size=8),
|
| 301 |
+
))
|
| 302 |
+
|
| 303 |
+
# Blended cost line (decreasing)
|
| 304 |
+
fig_cycles.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 305 |
+
x=chart_df["Cycles"],
|
| 306 |
+
y=chart_df["Blended Cost"],
|
| 307 |
+
mode="lines+markers",
|
| 308 |
+
name="Blended Cost per Product",
|
| 309 |
+
line=dict(color="#e74c3c", width=3),
|
| 310 |
+
marker=dict(size=8),
|
| 311 |
+
))
|
| 312 |
+
|
| 313 |
+
# Total cost line
|
| 314 |
+
fig_cycles.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 315 |
+
x=chart_df["Cycles"],
|
| 316 |
+
y=chart_df["Total Cost"],
|
| 317 |
+
mode="lines+markers",
|
| 318 |
+
name="Total Cost per Product",
|
| 319 |
+
line=dict(color="#e74c3c", width=2, dash="dot"),
|
| 320 |
+
marker=dict(size=6),
|
| 321 |
+
opacity=0.6,
|
| 322 |
+
))
|
| 323 |
+
|
| 324 |
+
# Mark current cycles
|
| 325 |
+
fig_cycles.add_vline(
|
| 326 |
+
x=reuse_cycles, line_dash="dash", line_color="#f1c40f",
|
| 327 |
+
annotation_text=f"Current: {reuse_cycles} cycles",
|
| 328 |
+
annotation_position="top"
|
| 329 |
+
)
|
| 330 |
+
|
| 331 |
+
fig_cycles.update_layout(
|
| 332 |
+
xaxis_title="Reuse Cycles",
|
| 333 |
+
yaxis_title="NOK per Product",
|
| 334 |
+
legend=dict(orientation="h", yanchor="bottom", y=1.02),
|
| 335 |
+
hovermode="x unified",
|
| 336 |
+
)
|
| 337 |
+
|
| 338 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig_cycles, use_container_width=True)
|
| 339 |
+
|
| 340 |
+
st.info(f"**Key insight:** More cycles = lower blended cost = higher profit. At {reuse_cycles} cycles, blended cost is {blended_cost_per_product:,.0f} NOK vs {mfg_cost:,} NOK manufacturing cost.")
|
| 341 |
+
|
| 342 |
+
st.markdown("---")
|
| 343 |
+
|
| 344 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 345 |
+
# TIER 3: AT SCALE
|
| 346 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 347 |
+
st.markdown('<p class="tier-header">Tier 3 — Scale Understanding</p>', unsafe_allow_html=True)
|
| 348 |
+
st.subheader("At Scale: Customer Base Projection")
|
| 349 |
+
|
| 350 |
+
scale_col1, scale_col2 = st.columns([1, 2])
|
| 351 |
+
|
| 352 |
+
with scale_col1:
|
| 353 |
+
customer_base = st.slider(
|
| 354 |
+
"Customer Base",
|
| 355 |
+
min_value=500, max_value=10000, value=1000, step=100,
|
| 356 |
+
help="Target number of active customers"
|
| 357 |
+
)
|
| 358 |
+
|
| 359 |
+
utilization_rate = 0.80 # 80% of fleet in use at any time
|
| 360 |
+
fleet_needed = int(customer_base / utilization_rate)
|
| 361 |
+
|
| 362 |
+
annual_revenue_scale = customer_base * monthly_lease * lease_term_months
|
| 363 |
+
total_cost_scale = fleet_needed * blended_cost_per_product
|
| 364 |
+
annual_profit_scale = annual_revenue_scale - total_cost_scale
|
| 365 |
+
|
| 366 |
+
st.metric("Fleet Size Needed", f"{fleet_needed:,} units", delta=f"{utilization_rate*100:.0f}% utilization")
|
| 367 |
+
st.metric("Annual Revenue", f"{annual_revenue_scale:,.0f} NOK", delta=f"{customer_base:,} customers")
|
| 368 |
+
st.metric("Total Blended Cost", f"{total_cost_scale:,.0f} NOK", delta=f"{fleet_needed:,} units")
|
| 369 |
+
|
| 370 |
+
profit_delta = "profit" if annual_profit_scale > 0 else "loss"
|
| 371 |
+
st.metric("Annual Profit", f"{annual_profit_scale:,.0f} NOK", delta=profit_delta)
|
| 372 |
+
|
| 373 |
+
with scale_col2:
|
| 374 |
+
# Chart 3: 5-Year Cumulative Profit
|
| 375 |
+
st.markdown("**5-Year Cumulative Profit Trajectory**")
|
| 376 |
+
|
| 377 |
+
# Calculate with 10% utilization decline per cycle
|
| 378 |
+
months = list(range(0, 61))
|
| 379 |
+
cumulative_profit = []
|
| 380 |
+
cumulative = -fleet_needed * mfg_cost # Initial investment
|
| 381 |
+
current_utilization = utilization_rate
|
| 382 |
+
|
| 383 |
+
for month in months:
|
| 384 |
+
if month == 0:
|
| 385 |
+
cumulative_profit.append(cumulative)
|
| 386 |
+
continue
|
| 387 |
+
|
| 388 |
+
# Decline utilization at each cycle end
|
| 389 |
+
if month > 0 and month % lease_term_months == 0:
|
| 390 |
+
current_utilization = max(0.5, current_utilization - 0.10)
|
| 391 |
+
cumulative -= fleet_needed * logistics_per_cycle # Logistics at cycle transition
|
| 392 |
+
|
| 393 |
+
active_customers = int(fleet_needed * current_utilization)
|
| 394 |
+
monthly_rev = active_customers * monthly_lease
|
| 395 |
+
monthly_cost = active_customers * (repair_per_cycle / lease_term_months)
|
| 396 |
+
cumulative += monthly_rev - monthly_cost
|
| 397 |
+
cumulative_profit.append(cumulative)
|
| 398 |
+
|
| 399 |
+
fig_trajectory = go.Figure()
|
| 400 |
+
|
| 401 |
+
fig_trajectory.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 402 |
+
x=months,
|
| 403 |
+
y=cumulative_profit,
|
| 404 |
+
mode="lines",
|
| 405 |
+
name="Cumulative Profit",
|
| 406 |
+
line=dict(color="#2ecc71", width=3),
|
| 407 |
+
fill="tozeroy",
|
| 408 |
+
fillcolor="rgba(46, 204, 113, 0.2)",
|
| 409 |
+
))
|
| 410 |
+
|
| 411 |
+
# Add zero line
|
| 412 |
+
fig_trajectory.add_hline(y=0, line_color="rgba(255,255,255,0.5)", line_width=1)
|
| 413 |
+
|
| 414 |
+
# Mark cycle transitions
|
| 415 |
+
for cycle_month in range(lease_term_months, 61, lease_term_months):
|
| 416 |
+
fig_trajectory.add_vline(
|
| 417 |
+
x=cycle_month, line_dash="dot", line_color="rgba(255,255,255,0.3)",
|
| 418 |
+
)
|
| 419 |
+
|
| 420 |
+
# Find and mark breakeven
|
| 421 |
+
for i, cp in enumerate(cumulative_profit):
|
| 422 |
+
if cp >= 0 and i > 0:
|
| 423 |
+
fig_trajectory.add_trace(go.Scatter(
|
| 424 |
+
x=[i], y=[cp],
|
| 425 |
+
mode="markers+text",
|
| 426 |
+
name="Breakeven",
|
| 427 |
+
marker=dict(size=12, color="#f1c40f", symbol="star"),
|
| 428 |
+
text=["Breakeven"],
|
| 429 |
+
textposition="top center",
|
| 430 |
+
))
|
| 431 |
+
break
|
| 432 |
+
|
| 433 |
+
fig_trajectory.update_layout(
|
| 434 |
+
xaxis_title="Months",
|
| 435 |
+
yaxis_title="Cumulative Profit (NOK)",
|
| 436 |
+
showlegend=False,
|
| 437 |
+
yaxis=dict(tickformat=","),
|
| 438 |
+
)
|
| 439 |
+
|
| 440 |
+
st.plotly_chart(fig_trajectory, use_container_width=True)
|
| 441 |
+
|
| 442 |
+
final_profit = cumulative_profit[-1]
|
| 443 |
+
st.caption(f"5-year projection with {fleet_needed:,} unit fleet. Final cumulative profit: **{final_profit:,.0f} NOK**")
|
| 444 |
+
|
| 445 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 446 |
+
# FOOTER
|
| 447 |
+
# ============================================================
|
| 448 |
+
st.markdown("---")
|
| 449 |
+
st.caption(f"Portfolio: {portfolio_size:,} units | Lease: {monthly_lease} NOK/mo | Mfg: {mfg_cost:,} NOK | Cycles: {reuse_cycles}")
|