Update models/live_fair_simulator_v3.py

models/live_fair_simulator_v3.py

@@ -178,6 +178,55 @@ def build_upcoming_simulated_rows(
             ),
         )
 
+        # HR-specific pulled-contact-shape overlay
+        pre_pull_hr_prob_base = batter_baseline.get("hr_prob_base")
+
+        pulled_barrel_rate = batter_features.get("pulled_barrel_rate")
+        pulled_hard_air_rate = batter_features.get("pulled_hard_air_rate")
+        pull_air_rate = batter_features.get("pull_air_rate")
+
+        if pulled_barrel_rate is not None:
+            try:
+                pulled_barrel_rate = float(pulled_barrel_rate)
+                batter_baseline["hr_prob_base"] = min(
+                    0.30,
+                    max(
+                        0.005,
+                        float(batter_baseline.get("hr_prob_base", 0.03) or 0.03)
+                        + max(-0.01, min(0.045, (pulled_barrel_rate - 0.020) * 1.50)),
+                    ),
+                )
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+
+        elif pulled_hard_air_rate is not None:
+            try:
+                pulled_hard_air_rate = float(pulled_hard_air_rate)
+                batter_baseline["hr_prob_base"] = min(
+                    0.30,
+                    max(
+                        0.005,
+                        float(batter_baseline.get("hr_prob_base", 0.03) or 0.03)
+                        + max(-0.008, min(0.030, (pulled_hard_air_rate - 0.040) * 0.55)),
+                    ),
+                )
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+
+        elif pull_air_rate is not None:
+            try:
+                pull_air_rate = float(pull_air_rate)
+                batter_baseline["hr_prob_base"] = min(
+                    0.30,
+                    max(
+                        0.005,
+                        float(batter_baseline.get("hr_prob_base", 0.03) or 0.03)
+                        + max(-0.006, min(0.020, (pull_air_rate - 0.10) * 0.18)),
+                    ),
+                )
+            except Exception:
+                pass
+
         sim = simulate_upcoming_hitter(
             game_row=game_row,
             batter_row=batter_features,