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@@ -1,38 +1,521 @@
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That backup is already contaminated by duplication/join-multiplication, so choosing one βlatestβ row per (game_pk, batter_name, market) can preserve incorrect slot/pitcher/odds metadata from a bad duplicated row.
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- rebuild from a freshly deduplicated audit extraction after the read_recommendation_audit_view fix is in place
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- game_pk
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- batter_name
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- slot
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Revise the query so either:
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- the JOIN includes market where appropriate, or
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- the view is explicitly scoped to the market(s) actually needed by batter_prop_outcomes right now and documented as such.
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- manual button must not append
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- unique index on batter_prop_outcomes only after clean rebuild
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Here is Claude's plan: βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ batter_prop_outcomes β Staged Fix Plan
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---
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Framing
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There are two distinct problems. This plan separates them:
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Plan A (immediate): Stop batter_prop_outcomes from growing, fix it safely, and add a
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UNIQUE constraint. Does NOT modify the semantic grain or constraints on recommendation_logs
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or recommendation_outcomes. Treats those tables as opaque historical sources.
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Plan B (later): Audit and redesign the upstream source tables after a full downstream
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consumer proof. Not in scope for the current execution.
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---
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Why batter_prop_outcomes Is Exploding (Confirmed Root Causes)
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Root Cause 1 β Source table join explosion (Layer 0β1)
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recommendation_logs and recommendation_outcomes are written every 3 seconds by a
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@st.fragment(run_every=3) fragment with no idempotency guard. A 3-hour game produces
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~10,800 rows in recommendation_logs and ~3,600 rows in recommendation_outcomes for the
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same (game_pk, batter_name, slot) triple.
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read_recommendation_audit_view() (db.py:481β532) LEFT JOINs both tables on
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(game_pk, batter_name, slot) with no WHERE clause:
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FROM recommendation_logs l
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LEFT JOIN recommendation_outcomes o
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ON l.game_pk = o.game_pk AND l.batter_name = o.batter_name AND l.slot = o.slot
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When both sides have duplicates, this is a Cartesian product per triple:
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- 10,800 log rows Γ 3,600 outcome rows = 38,880,000 rows for one batter in one slot
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- For 3 batters across 3 slots: ~350M rows returned from the audit view for a single game
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Root Cause 2 β Step 3 reads full history with no game_pk filter (Layer 2)
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analytics/game_completion.py:492:
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audit_df = read_recommendation_audit_view(conn) # returns ALL rows, all games, fully inflated
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insert_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, prop_df) # naked INSERT, no conflict guard
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Every game completion appends the entire inflated multi-game history into batter_prop_outcomes.
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Root Cause 3 β Step 4 does not compress (Layer 3)
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Step 4 reads ALL rows, re-grades them, then replaces the entire table with the same inflated
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count. It reduces nothing. Only runs when statcast is available.
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Root Cause 4 β Retry fires Step 3 repeatedly (Layer 4)
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@st.fragment(run_every=300) re-fires on_game_complete() for pending games.
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_completed_pks session guard resets on restart. Each retry appends another full audit view blob.
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---
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Evidence / SQL Diagnostics
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Run these before making any changes:
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-- Prove join explosion: check duplication factor in source tables
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SELECT game_pk, batter_name, slot,
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COUNT(*) AS log_rows
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FROM recommendation_logs
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GROUP BY game_pk, batter_name, slot
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ORDER BY log_rows DESC LIMIT 10;
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SELECT game_pk, batter_name, slot, market,
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COUNT(*) AS outcome_rows
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FROM recommendation_outcomes
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GROUP BY game_pk, batter_name, slot, market
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ORDER BY outcome_rows DESC LIMIT 10;
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-- Prove Cartesian expansion: join row count for worst game
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-- Replace 'WORST_GAME_PK' with top result from above
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SELECT COUNT(*) AS audit_view_rows_for_game
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FROM recommendation_logs l
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LEFT JOIN recommendation_outcomes o
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ON l.game_pk = o.game_pk AND l.batter_name = o.batter_name AND l.slot = o.slot
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WHERE l.game_pk = 'WORST_GAME_PK';
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-- Should be enormous (millions) if flooding is confirmed
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-- Quantify batter_prop_outcomes inflation
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SELECT COUNT(*) AS total_rows FROM batter_prop_outcomes;
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SELECT COUNT(DISTINCT game_pk || '|' || batter_name || '|' || market) AS correct_grain_rows
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FROM batter_prop_outcomes;
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-- Ratio = duplication factor
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SELECT game_pk, batter_name, market, COUNT(*) AS cnt
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FROM batter_prop_outcomes
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GROUP BY game_pk, batter_name, market
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ORDER BY cnt DESC LIMIT 10;
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---
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Plan A β Immediate Safe Remediation
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Goal: Stop batter_prop_outcomes growth. Make Step 3 idempotent. Add UNIQUE constraint.
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Does not impose UNIQUE constraints on recommendation_logs or recommendation_outcomes.
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Does not truncate or alter recommendation_logs or recommendation_outcomes.
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---
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Fix 1 β Dedup both sides of the audit view JOIN before returning (database/db.py)
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File: database/db.py:485β532, function read_recommendation_audit_view()
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Replace the current flat JOIN query with a CTE that takes the latest row per grain from each
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source before joining. This eliminates Cartesian multiplication without altering the source tables.
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Market scoping: latest_outcomes is scoped to market = 'hr' (the only current market in
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recommendation_outcomes). This prevents future duplication if additional markets are added β
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the JOIN would otherwise multiply one latest_logs row against multiple market rows. The WHERE market = 'hr' constraint is documented inline. When additional
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markets are supported, this view
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must be revised.
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query = """
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WITH latest_logs AS (
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SELECT DISTINCT ON (game_pk, batter_name, slot) *
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FROM recommendation_logs
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ORDER BY game_pk, batter_name, slot, created_at DESC NULLS LAST
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),
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latest_outcomes AS (
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-- Scoped to market='hr' (only current market); prevents JOIN multiplication on future markets
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SELECT DISTINCT ON (game_pk, batter_name, slot) *
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FROM recommendation_outcomes
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WHERE market = 'hr'
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ORDER BY game_pk, batter_name, slot, graded_at DESC NULLS LAST
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)
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SELECT
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l.created_at,
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l.game_pk,
|
| 129 |
+
l.away_team,
|
| 130 |
+
l.home_team,
|
| 131 |
+
l.status,
|
| 132 |
+
l.slot,
|
| 133 |
+
l.batter_name,
|
| 134 |
+
l.pitcher_name,
|
| 135 |
+
l.ev90,
|
| 136 |
+
l.hit_prob,
|
| 137 |
+
l.hr_prob,
|
| 138 |
+
l.tb2p_prob,
|
| 139 |
+
l.fair_hit_odds,
|
| 140 |
+
l.fair_hr_odds,
|
| 141 |
+
l.fair_tb2p_odds,
|
| 142 |
+
l.book_hit_odds,
|
| 143 |
+
l.book_hr_odds,
|
| 144 |
+
l.book_tb2p_odds,
|
| 145 |
+
l.hit_edge,
|
| 146 |
+
l.hr_edge,
|
| 147 |
+
l.tb2p_edge,
|
| 148 |
+
l.adjusted_edge,
|
| 149 |
+
l.hit_bet_ev,
|
| 150 |
+
l.hr_bet_ev,
|
| 151 |
+
l.tb2p_bet_ev,
|
| 152 |
+
l.confidence,
|
| 153 |
+
l.confidence_bucket,
|
| 154 |
+
l.recommendation_tier,
|
| 155 |
+
l.priority_score,
|
| 156 |
+
l.reason_tags,
|
| 157 |
+
l.starter_stays_next_batter_prob,
|
| 158 |
+
l.starter_stays_next_inning_prob,
|
| 159 |
+
l.bullpen_entry_prob,
|
| 160 |
+
o.realized_hit,
|
| 161 |
+
o.realized_hr,
|
| 162 |
+
o.realized_tb2p,
|
| 163 |
+
o.graded_at,
|
| 164 |
+
o.outcome_source
|
| 165 |
+
FROM latest_logs l
|
| 166 |
+
LEFT JOIN latest_outcomes o
|
| 167 |
+
ON l.game_pk = o.game_pk
|
| 168 |
+
AND l.batter_name = o.batter_name
|
| 169 |
+
AND l.slot = o.slot
|
| 170 |
+
ORDER BY l.created_at DESC
|
| 171 |
+
"""
|
| 172 |
+
|
| 173 |
+
Why this is safe for all consumers:
|
| 174 |
+
- Returns the latest recommendation snapshot per (game_pk, batter_name, slot) β one row each
|
| 175 |
+
- Market scoping ensures the LEFT JOIN is strictly 1:1 (one log row β at most one outcome row)
|
| 176 |
+
- Audit metrics tables GROUP BY tier/confidence/edge β deduplicated data is more accurate
|
| 177 |
+
- Debug page shows tail(20) β no functional change
|
| 178 |
+
- Source tables are untouched; DISTINCT ON is read-only
|
| 179 |
+
|
| 180 |
+
Row count after this fix (per game): at most distinct(batter_name) Γ distinct(slot) rows,
|
| 181 |
+
typically 3β10 batters Γ 1β3 slots = 9β30 rows per game.
|
| 182 |
+
|
| 183 |
+
---
|
| 184 |
+
Fix 2 β Filter audit_df to current game_pk in Step 3 (game_completion.py)
|
| 185 |
+
|
| 186 |
+
File: analytics/game_completion.py:492
|
| 187 |
+
|
| 188 |
+
# Change:
|
| 189 |
+
audit_df = read_recommendation_audit_view(conn)
|
| 190 |
+
# To:
|
| 191 |
+
audit_df = read_recommendation_audit_view(conn)
|
| 192 |
+
audit_df = audit_df[audit_df["game_pk"].astype(str).str.strip() == str(game_pk)]
|
| 193 |
+
|
| 194 |
+
After Fix 1, the audit view returns at most ~30 rows for a typical game. After Fix 2, only rows
|
| 195 |
+
for the completing game are processed. Together: Step 3 operates on exactly the right set of rows.
|
| 196 |
+
|
| 197 |
+
---
|
| 198 |
+
Fix 3 β Dedup prop_df before inserting (batter_prop_grader.py)
|
| 199 |
+
|
| 200 |
+
File: analytics/batter_prop_grader.py, end of build_batter_prop_outcome_rows_from_audit()
|
| 201 |
+
|
| 202 |
+
Adds a final safety net to ensure one outcome row per (game_pk, batter_name, market) regardless
|
| 203 |
+
of what the audit view returns (e.g., if the same batter appeared in two different slots):
|
| 204 |
+
|
| 205 |
+
df = pd.DataFrame(rows)
|
| 206 |
+
if df.empty:
|
| 207 |
+
return df
|
| 208 |
+
df = (
|
| 209 |
+
df.sort_values("created_at", ascending=False, na_position="last")
|
| 210 |
+
.drop_duplicates(subset=["game_pk", "batter_name", "market"], keep="first")
|
| 211 |
+
.reset_index(drop=True)
|
| 212 |
+
)
|
| 213 |
+
return df
|
| 214 |
+
|
| 215 |
+
---
|
| 216 |
+
Fix 4 β Scoped delete before Step 3 insert (game_completion.py + database/db.py)
|
| 217 |
+
|
| 218 |
+
Makes Step 3 idempotent: re-running for the same game_pk removes that game's rows first,
|
| 219 |
+
then inserts exactly the right set.
|
| 220 |
+
|
| 221 |
+
Add to database/db.py:
|
| 222 |
+
def delete_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game(conn, game_pk: str) -> None:
|
| 223 |
+
conn.execute(
|
| 224 |
+
text("DELETE FROM batter_prop_outcomes WHERE game_pk = :pk"),
|
| 225 |
+
{"pk": game_pk},
|
| 226 |
+
)
|
| 227 |
+
|
| 228 |
+
analytics/game_completion.py:497, change:
|
| 229 |
+
# Change:
|
| 230 |
+
insert_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, prop_df)
|
| 231 |
+
# To:
|
| 232 |
+
from database.db import delete_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game
|
| 233 |
+
delete_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game(conn, str(game_pk))
|
| 234 |
+
insert_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, prop_df)
|
| 235 |
+
|
| 236 |
+
---
|
| 237 |
+
Fix 5 β Scope Step 4 to current game (game_completion.py + database/db.py)
|
| 238 |
+
|
| 239 |
+
Stops the full-table DELETE + re-INSERT churn. Step 4 now only reads and re-grades the rows
|
| 240 |
+
for the completing game.
|
| 241 |
+
|
| 242 |
+
Add to database/db.py:
|
| 243 |
+
def read_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game(conn, game_pk: str) -> pd.DataFrame:
|
| 244 |
+
ensure_batter_prop_outcomes_table(conn)
|
| 245 |
+
return pd.read_sql(
|
| 246 |
+
text("SELECT * FROM batter_prop_outcomes WHERE game_pk = :pk"),
|
| 247 |
+
conn,
|
| 248 |
+
params={"pk": game_pk},
|
| 249 |
+
)
|
| 250 |
+
|
| 251 |
+
analytics/game_completion.py:507β515, change:
|
| 252 |
+
# Change:
|
| 253 |
+
batter_prop_df = read_batter_prop_outcomes(conn)
|
| 254 |
+
...
|
| 255 |
+
replace_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, graded_df)
|
| 256 |
+
|
| 257 |
+
# To:
|
| 258 |
+
from database.db import read_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game, delete_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game
|
| 259 |
+
batter_prop_df = read_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game(conn, str(game_pk))
|
| 260 |
+
if not batter_prop_df.empty:
|
| 261 |
+
graded_df = build_batter_realization_rows(
|
| 262 |
+
batter_prop_outcomes_df=batter_prop_df,
|
| 263 |
+
statcast_df=statcast_df,
|
| 264 |
+
graded_at=utc_now_iso(),
|
| 265 |
+
)
|
| 266 |
+
if not graded_df.empty:
|
| 267 |
+
delete_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game(conn, str(game_pk))
|
| 268 |
+
insert_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, graded_df)
|
| 269 |
+
logger.info("[game_completion] step 4 done: %d realized rows", len(graded_df))
|
| 270 |
+
|
| 271 |
+
---
|
| 272 |
+
Fix 6 β Fix manual debug button (app.py)
|
| 273 |
+
|
| 274 |
+
File: app.py:2691β2700
|
| 275 |
+
|
| 276 |
+
Change insert_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, outcome_df) to replace_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, outcome_df).
|
| 277 |
+
|
| 278 |
+
The manual button now does a full-table replace instead of append. Idempotent: clicking it twice
|
| 279 |
+
produces the same result. It still reads the full audit view (which Fix 1 has deduplicated).
|
| 280 |
+
|
| 281 |
+
---
|
| 282 |
+
Fix 7 β Add UNIQUE constraint to batter_prop_outcomes (applied post-rebuild)
|
| 283 |
+
|
| 284 |
+
File: database/db.py, ensure_batter_prop_outcomes_table(), after the CREATE TABLE call:
|
| 285 |
+
|
| 286 |
+
conn.execute(text("""
|
| 287 |
+
CREATE UNIQUE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS uq_batter_prop_outcomes_grain
|
| 288 |
+
ON batter_prop_outcomes (game_pk, batter_name, market)
|
| 289 |
+
"""))
|
| 290 |
+
|
| 291 |
+
This is the hard backstop. Any future bug that attempts a duplicate insert will fail loudly
|
| 292 |
+
rather than silently inflating the table.
|
| 293 |
+
|
| 294 |
+
Apply AFTER the table is rebuilt clean (Stage 4 below), not before.
|
| 295 |
+
|
| 296 |
+
---
|
| 297 |
+
Plan A β Staged Execution Order
|
| 298 |
+
|
| 299 |
+
Stage 1 β Run diagnostics (read-only, no changes)
|
| 300 |
+
|
| 301 |
+
Execute the SQL diagnostics above. Confirm:
|
| 302 |
+
- Log rows per (game_pk, batter_name, slot) are in the hundreds/thousands
|
| 303 |
+
- Audit view join expansion is massive for worst-case games
|
| 304 |
+
- batter_prop_outcomes correct grain count vs. actual count
|
| 305 |
+
|
| 306 |
+
This is a gate β proceed only after confirming the pattern.
|
| 307 |
+
|
| 308 |
+
---
|
| 309 |
+
Stage 2 β Deploy code (Fixes 1β6, no schema changes)
|
| 310 |
+
|
| 311 |
+
One push. All changes are backward-compatible:
|
| 312 |
+
- Fix 1: read_recommendation_audit_view uses dedup CTE (read-only query change)
|
| 313 |
+
- Fix 2: game_pk filter at call site (game_completion.py)
|
| 314 |
+
- Fix 3: dedup in build_batter_prop_outcome_rows_from_audit (batter_prop_grader.py)
|
| 315 |
+
- Fix 4: delete_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game helper + call in Step 3
|
| 316 |
+
- Fix 5: read_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game helper + scoped Step 4
|
| 317 |
+
- Fix 6: manual button uses replace
|
| 318 |
+
|
| 319 |
+
No UNIQUE constraints are added in this stage. No source tables are modified. The code is
|
| 320 |
+
safe to deploy and roll back if needed.
|
| 321 |
+
|
| 322 |
+
---
|
| 323 |
+
Stage 3 β Validate: run one game cycle and confirm no new duplicates
|
| 324 |
+
|
| 325 |
+
After deploy, wait for the next game to complete (or trigger one manually).
|
| 326 |
+
Then run these checks against the corrected audit view logic directly:
|
| 327 |
+
|
| 328 |
+
-- A. Verify the fixed audit view produces no multiplication for a target game
|
| 329 |
+
-- Use the same CTE logic as the updated read_recommendation_audit_view
|
| 330 |
+
WITH latest_logs AS (
|
| 331 |
+
SELECT DISTINCT ON (game_pk, batter_name, slot) *
|
| 332 |
+
FROM recommendation_logs
|
| 333 |
+
ORDER BY game_pk, batter_name, slot, created_at DESC NULLS LAST
|
| 334 |
+
),
|
| 335 |
+
latest_outcomes AS (
|
| 336 |
+
SELECT DISTINCT ON (game_pk, batter_name, slot) *
|
| 337 |
+
FROM recommendation_outcomes
|
| 338 |
+
WHERE market = 'hr'
|
| 339 |
+
ORDER BY game_pk, batter_name, slot, graded_at DESC NULLS LAST
|
| 340 |
+
)
|
| 341 |
+
SELECT l.game_pk, l.batter_name, l.slot, COUNT(*) AS rows_in_view
|
| 342 |
+
FROM latest_logs l
|
| 343 |
+
LEFT JOIN latest_outcomes o
|
| 344 |
+
ON l.game_pk = o.game_pk AND l.batter_name = o.batter_name AND l.slot = o.slot
|
| 345 |
+
WHERE l.game_pk = '<GAME_PK_FROM_LAST_COMPLETION>'
|
| 346 |
+
GROUP BY l.game_pk, l.batter_name, l.slot;
|
| 347 |
+
-- Expected: all rows_in_view = 1; total rows ~ 9β30
|
| 348 |
+
|
| 349 |
+
-- B. batter_prop_outcomes: new rows for last completing game must each appear once
|
| 350 |
+
SELECT game_pk, batter_name, market, COUNT(*) AS cnt
|
| 351 |
+
FROM batter_prop_outcomes
|
| 352 |
+
WHERE game_pk = '<GAME_PK_FROM_LAST_COMPLETION>'
|
| 353 |
+
GROUP BY game_pk, batter_name, market
|
| 354 |
+
ORDER BY cnt DESC;
|
| 355 |
+
-- Expected: all cnt = 1
|
| 356 |
+
|
| 357 |
+
---
|
| 358 |
+
Stage 4 β Back up, truncate, and rebuild batter_prop_outcomes
|
| 359 |
+
|
| 360 |
+
Step 1 β Back up (preserve for audit/emergency only; do NOT use as primary rebuild source):
|
| 361 |
+
CREATE TABLE batter_prop_outcomes_backup_20260321
|
| 362 |
+
AS SELECT * FROM batter_prop_outcomes;
|
| 363 |
+
SELECT COUNT(*) FROM batter_prop_outcomes_backup_20260321;
|
| 364 |
+
|
| 365 |
+
The backup is contaminated β it contains rows inflated by join multiplication from the old
|
| 366 |
+
query. Picking DISTINCT ON rows from the backup risks preserving metadata (slot, pitcher, odds)
|
| 367 |
+
that came from a bad duplicated row rather than a clean source. Use the backup for inspection
|
| 368 |
+
only. It is NOT the primary rebuild path.
|
| 369 |
+
|
| 370 |
+
Step 2 β Truncate:
|
| 371 |
+
TRUNCATE TABLE batter_prop_outcomes;
|
| 372 |
+
SELECT COUNT(*) FROM batter_prop_outcomes; -- must be 0
|
| 373 |
+
|
| 374 |
+
Step 3 β Rebuild via the corrected pipeline (primary path):
|
| 375 |
+
|
| 376 |
+
With Fixes 1β6 deployed, the corrected audit view now returns clean deduplicated rows.
|
| 377 |
+
Trigger a rebuild using the existing pipeline functions β this is equivalent to clicking the
|
| 378 |
+
"Build Batter Prop Outcomes" debug button after Fix 6 is deployed:
|
| 379 |
+
|
| 380 |
+
# Equivalent to grade_batter_prop_outcomes_from_audit() after Fix 6
|
| 381 |
+
# Run this from a Python shell or admin script connected to production:
|
| 382 |
+
|
| 383 |
+
from database.db import read_recommendation_audit_view, replace_batter_prop_outcomes
|
| 384 |
+
from analytics.batter_prop_grader import build_batter_prop_outcome_rows_from_audit
|
| 385 |
+
from utils.time_utils import utc_now_iso # or however utc_now_iso is imported
|
| 386 |
+
|
| 387 |
+
audit_df = read_recommendation_audit_view(conn) # returns clean deduplicated rows
|
| 388 |
+
prop_df = build_batter_prop_outcome_rows_from_audit(audit_df, graded_at=utc_now_iso())
|
| 389 |
+
# prop_df is already deduped on (game_pk, batter_name, market) by Fix 3
|
| 390 |
+
replace_batter_prop_outcomes(conn, prop_df) # DELETE ALL + INSERT clean rows
|
| 391 |
+
|
| 392 |
+
This produces exactly one row per (game_pk, batter_name, market) for all historical games.
|
| 393 |
+
Rows will have grade_status = 'pending' and outcome_source = 'pending_batter_prop_grade'
|
| 394 |
+
for historical games where realized outcomes haven't been re-applied. That is acceptable β
|
| 395 |
+
the table is clean and correctly sized; future games will have realized outcomes applied by the
|
| 396 |
+
corrected Step 4.
|
| 397 |
+
|
| 398 |
+
Step 4 β Verify row count is sane:
|
| 399 |
+
SELECT COUNT(*) FROM batter_prop_outcomes; -- expected: hundreds to low thousands
|
| 400 |
+
|
| 401 |
+
SELECT game_pk, COUNT(*) AS rows_per_game
|
| 402 |
+
FROM batter_prop_outcomes GROUP BY game_pk ORDER BY game_pk DESC LIMIT 10;
|
| 403 |
+
-- Each game_pk should have a small number of rows (1 per distinct batter with a rec)
|
| 404 |
+
|
| 405 |
+
Emergency fallback only β backup-based DISTINCT ON (if corrected pipeline rebuild fails):
|
| 406 |
+
INSERT INTO batter_prop_outcomes
|
| 407 |
+
SELECT DISTINCT ON (game_pk, batter_name, market)
|
| 408 |
+
created_at, graded_at, game_pk, away_team, home_team, slot,
|
| 409 |
+
batter_name, pitcher_name, market, fair_hr_odds, book_hr_odds,
|
| 410 |
+
adjusted_edge, confidence, recommendation_tier,
|
| 411 |
+
realized_hit, realized_hr, realized_tb2p, grade_status, outcome_source
|
| 412 |
+
FROM batter_prop_outcomes_backup_20260321
|
| 413 |
+
ORDER BY game_pk, batter_name, market, graded_at DESC NULLS LAST;
|
| 414 |
+
Use only if the corrected pipeline rebuild is blocked for operational reasons. Metadata quality
|
| 415 |
+
in this path is not guaranteed since rows came from a multiply-contaminated table.
|
| 416 |
+
|
| 417 |
+
---
|
| 418 |
+
Stage 5 β Apply UNIQUE constraint to batter_prop_outcomes (Fix 7)
|
| 419 |
+
|
| 420 |
+
CREATE UNIQUE INDEX uq_batter_prop_outcomes_grain
|
| 421 |
+
ON batter_prop_outcomes (game_pk, batter_name, market);
|
| 422 |
+
|
| 423 |
+
Verify it was created without error, then ensure it shows in:
|
| 424 |
+
SHOW INDEXES FROM batter_prop_outcomes;
|
| 425 |
+
|
| 426 |
+
---
|
| 427 |
+
Stage 6 β Final validation
|
| 428 |
+
|
| 429 |
+
-- 1. No duplicates per grain (must return 0 rows)
|
| 430 |
+
SELECT COUNT(*) FROM (
|
| 431 |
+
SELECT COUNT(*) AS c FROM batter_prop_outcomes
|
| 432 |
+
GROUP BY game_pk, batter_name, market HAVING COUNT(*) > 1
|
| 433 |
+
) t;
|
| 434 |
+
|
| 435 |
+
-- 2. Row count is sane
|
| 436 |
+
SELECT COUNT(*) FROM batter_prop_outcomes; -- expected: hundreds to low thousands
|
| 437 |
+
|
| 438 |
+
-- 3. Grade status distribution looks correct
|
| 439 |
+
SELECT grade_status, outcome_source, COUNT(*)
|
| 440 |
+
FROM batter_prop_outcomes GROUP BY 1, 2;
|
| 441 |
+
|
| 442 |
+
-- 4. After next game completion: only that game's rows were added/modified
|
| 443 |
+
SELECT game_pk, COUNT(*) FROM batter_prop_outcomes
|
| 444 |
+
GROUP BY game_pk ORDER BY game_pk DESC LIMIT 5;
|
| 445 |
+
|
| 446 |
+
---
|
| 447 |
+
Plan B β Later: Upstream Source Table Redesign
|
| 448 |
+
|
| 449 |
+
Do not execute until Plan A is stable and at least 5 game completion cycles are validated.
|
| 450 |
+
|
| 451 |
+
What needs to be determined first (open questions)
|
| 452 |
+
|
| 453 |
+
1. Are repeated timestamped rows in recommendation_logs intentional? (e.g., to track how odds
|
| 454 |
+
evolved as a batter stayed in On Deck across multiple pitches)
|
| 455 |
+
2. Is any downstream consumer using the full history of recommendation_logs (e.g., time-series
|
| 456 |
+
analysis of confidence drift per batter per game)?
|
| 457 |
+
3. Are batter_audit_metrics results more accurate with the full log history or with the
|
| 458 |
+
deduplicated snapshot?
|
| 459 |
+
4. What is the intended data retention for recommendation_logs? Should old rows ever be purged?
|
| 460 |
+
|
| 461 |
+
What Plan B would include (if proof shows repeated rows are not intentional)
|
| 462 |
+
|
| 463 |
+
- Add _upsert_on_conflict and _insert_ignore DB-level helpers to db.py
|
| 464 |
+
- Change insert_recommendation_logs to upsert on (game_pk, batter_name, slot) with DO UPDATE
|
| 465 |
+
to keep latest model features
|
| 466 |
+
- Change insert_recommendation_outcomes to insert-ignore on (game_pk, batter_name, slot, market)
|
| 467 |
+
- Deduplicate existing recommendation_logs and recommendation_outcomes (CREATE AS SELECT DISTINCT ON
|
| 468 |
+
β TRUNCATE β INSERT back)
|
| 469 |
+
- Add UNIQUE indexes to both tables
|
| 470 |
+
- Revert Fix 1 (dedup CTE in audit view) since it would become unnecessary
|
| 471 |
+
|
| 472 |
+
What Plan B does NOT do (regardless of outcome)
|
| 473 |
+
|
| 474 |
+
- Does not change read_recommendation_audit_view column list
|
| 475 |
+
- Does not remove slot from either table
|
| 476 |
+
- Does not change the batter_prop_outcomes schema
|
| 477 |
+
|
| 478 |
+
---
|
| 479 |
+
Critical Files for Plan A
|
| 480 |
+
|
| 481 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
|
| 482 |
+
β File β Fix β Change β
|
| 483 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 484 |
+
β database/db.py:485β532 β Fix 1 β Replace flat JOIN with DISTINCT ON CTE in read_recommendation_audit_view β
|
| 485 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 486 |
+
β analytics/game_completion.py:492 β Fix 2 β Add game_pk filter on audit_df β
|
| 487 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 488 |
+
β analytics/batter_prop_grader.py β Fix 3 β Add dedup on (game_pk, batter_name, market) before return β
|
| 489 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 490 |
+
β database/db.py β Fix 4 β Add delete_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game() helper β
|
| 491 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 492 |
+
β analytics/game_completion.py:497 β Fix 4 β Scoped delete before Step 3 insert β
|
| 493 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 494 |
+
β database/db.py β Fix 5 β Add read_batter_prop_outcomes_for_game() helper β
|
| 495 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 496 |
+
β analytics/game_completion.py:507β515 β Fix 5 β Scoped read/delete/insert for Step 4 β
|
| 497 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 498 |
+
β app.py:2691β2700 β Fix 6 β Manual button uses replace instead of insert β
|
| 499 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ€
|
| 500 |
+
β database/db.py β Fix 7 β Add CREATE UNIQUE INDEX IF NOT EXISTS in ensure_batter_prop_outcomes_table() β
|
| 501 |
+
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
|
| 502 |
+
|
| 503 |
+
What Is NOT Changed in Plan A
|
| 504 |
+
|
| 505 |
+
- recommendation_logs β no schema changes, no TRUNCATE, no UNIQUE constraints
|
| 506 |
+
- recommendation_outcomes β no schema changes, no TRUNCATE, no UNIQUE constraints
|
| 507 |
+
- insert_recommendation_logs β unchanged
|
| 508 |
+
- insert_recommendation_outcomes β unchanged
|
| 509 |
+
- _bulk_insert β unchanged
|
| 510 |
+
- build_recommendation_log_rows β unchanged
|
| 511 |
+
- build_recommendation_outcome_rows β unchanged
|
| 512 |
+
- All table column names and types β unchanged
|
| 513 |
+
- replace_batter_prop_outcomes β unchanged
|
| 514 |
+
βββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ
|
| 515 |
+
|
| 516 |
+
Claude has written up a plan and is ready to execute. Would you like to proceed?
|
| 517 |
+
|
| 518 |
+
β― 1. Yes, clear context (61% used) and auto-accept edits
|
| 519 |
+
2. Yes, auto-accept edits
|
| 520 |
+
3. Yes, manually approve edits
|
| 521 |
+
4. Type here to tell Claude what to change
|