Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:27.892401+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T05:25:02.553350+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27086,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2679,
+  "num_model_releases": 27098,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2680,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
@@ -25,21 +25,21 @@
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2526,
-      "num_unique_releases": 211,
+      "num_model_releases": 2514,
+      "num_unique_releases": 210,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26705,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2621,
+      "num_model_releases": 26717,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2622,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 4698
+    "prequential-v1": 4710
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,9.853600417631556,1.2850163396010807,0.2834492045058629,0.8958054925735982,-9.57199994272575,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336,41.364528045801826,-0.09970739956678083,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,9.169295955230876,1.254473233154065,0.27099216084359673,0.9399191977724373,-5.075818244163491,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336,38.19584693997802,-0.32192962178900314,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,9.084813501389918,1.2395632392733749,0.3237689139445562,1.0352820490691799,-4.394544379276276,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336,37.650130620796936,-0.21081851067789195,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,9.50995465532235,1.34468101365555,0.6884111358099776,0.9979560511545569,-17.19964868880649,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332,39.64209127673059,-0.21081851067789195,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,9.95732840702106,1.3253427433448413,0.3056712918188616,1.1543598930958288,-2.8788741285862915,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332,41.47021484691578,-0.4330407329001142,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,8.803062412487147,1.3504656908048271,0.5069336760536387,0.9693865484610868,-18.881761303087274,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332,35.90955758754059,-0.4330407329001142,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,9.836956829243915,1.2621697193568018,0.35813054033835207,1.002669839144875,-7.026376150374774,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332,41.975073912166664,-0.1777777777777778,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,9.861761932518483,1.355413313560759,0.6271390391134252,1.1466142171468685,0.0,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,40.886980422651405,-1.850371707708594e-17,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,9.54776865481569,1.277161801484643,0.7279695697568466,1.0918777811595053,-10.596185513181071,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,41.09836762716771,-0.21081851067789195,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,9.223919960316,1.561539021453778,0.33564656935555603,0.965940526150043,-34.95938664514379,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332,36.09129366809936,0.1333333333333333,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,10.681513464414847,1.7437077710734157,0.8115387060630129,1.4977676569061031,-31.658981423224404,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,39.31979501475774,-0.4330407329001142,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,10.748661466671447,1.9677619190693683,1.1553158574859428,1.6817652448783034,-32.17500374487258,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,35.51936767627233,-0.09970739956678083,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,7.620354884607177,1.1578865925258015,0.28180379475075495,0.7936995759475007,-7.073574751446511,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114,35.834361367115235,0.0,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,7.062664086990348,1.1161810566661852,0.2692695563259692,0.8219329804284974,-1.4178194143886023,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114,33.185071927008984,-0.2222222222222223,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,6.9934966452944565,1.0997843132259297,0.3220405120868604,0.9011072675972988,-0.5523375345939625,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114,32.70576048143817,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,7.3521510854452305,1.2027659644603543,0.6867570856895345,0.8814343814212018,-13.169584179929153,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111,34.451331679177315,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,7.683453449016319,1.1797577615717565,0.3037181652150148,0.999227952091857,0.9667339148231635,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111,36.063286390263315,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,6.848040102871062,1.2184858630084017,0.5053223934751446,0.8690077907427841,-15.291149526594143,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111,31.226780132021187,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,7.534793265910515,1.112039017529825,0.35635411833886466,0.8574617315255602,-2.8095845314598353,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111,36.443335762452385,-0.2222222222222223,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,7.6573738885083245,1.2174740981796803,0.6255108880545173,1.0052193867036032,0.0,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,35.494603865080855,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,7.339956543121362,1.1374243946872074,0.7263769490701735,0.9484366682091722,-6.998594046105051,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,35.66689570219452,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,7.287621535472461,1.4465813036935666,0.33404674550725194,0.8467556470286287,-34.022049620748106,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111,31.367930272105188,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,8.383026234874215,1.5728420120266495,0.8102085801074297,1.3839370251884353,-28.47453043405318,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,34.51769688868381,-0.3333333333333334,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,8.777093114291493,1.8195063266832285,1.1533809677669151,1.5360029831357307,-27.652317128534122,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,31.02540373880071,0.0,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T04:48:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.1908279280449,0.8775193539353962,0.1598713610241152,0.6405570830147711,23.254257526333312,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336,136.88197717755327,0.044102883594926576,0.15384615384615385,13,2573,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.362099206450198,0.8818059056413379,0.19587612761206447,0.6744686790313655,24.46919798796088,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336,139.62242216775127,0.03691462700626969,0.23076923076923078,13,2560,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.240392692083656,0.8770205299933903,0.13763326656048167,0.7187999136006759,23.874840637190825,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336,137.14134897704292,0.0460351769001028,0.23076923076923078,13,2554,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.792445156768217,0.926851992418594,0.24129983674159278,0.6724278996690143,22.064025213403717,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332,156.76789515909616,0.07419743427529933,0.15384615384615385,13,1861,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.509454332726868,0.9745038713261279,0.2003144641123554,0.8197592470957229,18.599674886391657,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332,164.26521559984042,0.05008473447427875,0.15384615384615385,13,1753,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.060147253905292,0.9735411850190796,0.2741413481603528,0.7206745210038619,11.414932010080198,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332,157.73033019310944,0.03373391415250971,0.15384615384615385,13,1848,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.433764037944737,1.01443346756498,0.22244434347014233,0.7669540229798096,15.99853798173457,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332,151.61702604933367,0.01005185259576204,0.3076923076923077,13,2101,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.050736457878173,1.2348986842065297,0.3648319494480692,0.9628848958366363,0.0,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,142.1919953623912,0.03833483904594382,0.23076923076923078,13,2401,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.79249735473695,1.140809451160054,0.3401538402674782,0.9170044232575232,3.210788606136975,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,142.4395240744088,0.07772292792633857,0.15384615384615385,13,2393,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.732436170396756,1.6635123306506172,0.28165272663413865,0.7023637360700514,-19.1180295486738,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332,214.16781536085196,-0.0026678337735186056,0.15384615384615385,13,1875,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,15.716904560086741,1.14368370393904,0.34751773560001564,0.9015750457165397,1.9475938774965145,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,142.44628604249598,0.056584036446345874,0.15384615384615385,13,2393,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.48759874921606,1.3999554513197163,0.3154244321777026,1.1107481858020647,-3.4865525476294343,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,147.31957692128734,0.07170057062419882,0.15384615384615385,13,2393,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.132094539210208,0.8771016340514102,0.15986281535111938,0.6400096166538123,23.227667181784504,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114,136.58012556756842,0.04426985806903817,0.15384615384615385,13,2574,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.301810759775671,0.8811979374212758,0.1957526383265197,0.6737024782703009,24.456211447194196,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114,139.31269576078324,0.036905778513870335,0.23076923076923078,13,2561,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.1805571418019,0.876382316072643,0.13759744040258404,0.7181914249900623,23.864954618402365,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114,136.8374299989558,0.04600659691552825,0.23076923076923078,13,2555,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.693716457728524,0.9257761160617627,0.24098103581146768,0.6714446941491885,22.054936562052603,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111,156.3144573404222,0.07393008129166645,0.15384615384615385,13,1862,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.38972517992047,0.973224882075937,0.2003012442965555,0.8183133371596032,18.58792901363211,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111,163.7413205117156,0.049750923964343,0.15384615384615385,13,1754,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.95914998202609,0.9725001320050912,0.27383302011410326,0.7196439049547462,11.398131426647073,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111,157.26841483565295,0.0335518908162616,0.15384615384615385,13,1849,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.343703510446712,1.0133034451905516,0.22229929486477226,0.765890901555478,16.00131700598875,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111,151.20580631418684,0.009680426119603283,0.3076923076923077,13,2102,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.98165532281901,1.234004636299764,0.36479489841169527,0.9620819620791151,0.0,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,141.85561687310894,0.03797228061504953,0.23076923076923078,13,2402,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.722757524002125,1.139915180663674,0.34012351282239517,0.9160556158371288,3.2116679527603633,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,142.10059272260384,0.07737930249206776,0.15384615384615385,13,2394,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.600964499736335,1.662090014905427,0.2811447545049346,0.7015189429992219,-19.12177309067501,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111,213.59664411244833,-0.003070692922449878,0.15384615384615385,13,1876,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,15.647511061056463,1.1429112284668599,0.3470944135234999,0.9015695749863137,1.9370138492800728,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,142.1073156626432,0.056473519294494415,0.15384615384615385,13,2394,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.418413967866215,1.3991493617768405,0.31540259176561347,1.1099771860949421,-3.487041133934466,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,146.98056119846063,0.07162152631020166,0.15384615384615385,13,2394,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,121.88028340663219,1.8313998064447379,0.1604982823557472,1.6052677749321,14.257627678389909,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336,458.61455794187117,-0.11680156047447521,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,122.66606252621926,1.8079152966126284,0.1586421534047757,1.8899326236167566,16.545933133178995,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336,467.55178281591367,-0.17999053844487206,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,121.71873307941019,1.7971888592103549,0.14140198752689043,1.6659150794461641,15.888403500377558,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336,458.463465945725,-0.15297632294055755,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,121.82957814110985,1.843844200537272,0.21938016517323225,1.5944931959101922,12.337525163006442,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332,458.553834273623,-0.05614031407755373,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,122.02540783017508,1.912425041424835,0.18595338367615238,1.78045110779365,7.3890636918980235,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332,458.6843751588125,-0.16183545762403193,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,121.85727746207318,1.8691739726519019,0.20887688261655205,1.6474372737115546,3.9320245401182206,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332,458.72752544291944,-0.07522764082572567,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,122.01348786888185,1.8730780057494123,0.19376263049460277,1.66914130193107,12.33192453453861,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332,458.6768068843546,-0.1601318185405907,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,122.35620240316398,2.038520231268968,0.2720568149792072,1.6708524530653637,0.0,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,458.8262672372261,-0.16744504615920183,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,122.18133817982903,2.0024472336520436,0.28124379092576823,1.8063195679502961,-3.14534381936361,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,458.74707521556377,-0.029965649475587944,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,164.8149393951543,2.4577586312785304,0.17930463735042126,1.5387645020880683,-26.48981313961635,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332,588.3274970231734,-0.11911142469402539,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,122.26066254826851,2.0842653281476227,0.27196928996117276,1.8153256833797278,-8.075497728015227,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,458.74367925667553,0.04385073822709613,0.08333333333333333,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,123.60756726995065,2.3914457863191574,0.39789154339358357,2.112538068032519,-13.872969927647924,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,459.9831675306914,0.03512938078452929,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,116.83935742801312,1.784804217176372,0.16029175728404563,1.5578365478071856,14.021708562615137,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114,449.36523757406286,-0.12710476061852388,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,117.58452544015557,1.7594549479167938,0.15842156586540532,1.8293858549684365,16.439061606172302,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114,458.1011884584213,-0.19075708767810703,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.67482725694073,1.7484219434809376,0.14118823606149425,1.6167832933997737,15.804605162570047,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114,449.2147099332,-0.16365096539796042,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.78311643063881,1.7943451544356666,0.21914879890527286,1.5467025593803738,12.304127655315261,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111,449.3062631841854,-0.06681852783586512,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.97913677665879,1.8637271968154103,0.18571503667535666,1.730076065769491,7.297654550631953,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111,449.4367686308784,-0.1723845563443025,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.81630726387766,1.8208018936104124,0.20865741671333024,1.5993820380186319,3.8251947493483027,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111,449.47737788165256,-0.08611079041751396,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,116.96309987862786,1.8232291266398626,0.1935277408285766,1.6191234099886609,12.311085118605185,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111,449.4310883839831,-0.16997197977162543,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.30580629961936,1.9891412700329125,0.271811321764343,1.6265298926400007,0.0,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,449.58171178524793,-0.17585279674222995,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,117.13079520379313,1.9528896880978115,0.2809997525802926,1.7557801040041003,-3.2031556912224803,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,449.5016502111858,-0.04005451251157511,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,158.0362267700305,2.4014271236597873,0.17907686868722356,1.4951735147532519,-26.468361950026594,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111,576.594354518773,-0.12537179097591625,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,117.21542905968938,2.0357344844727696,0.27185550214715154,1.7757887570187547,-8.231230087719712,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,449.49594088497815,0.031880152890858084,0.08333333333333333,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,118.57374875672014,2.343983773836064,0.3976809927937031,2.064869871907901,-13.96465165049195,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,450.729145359154,0.02446685617048422,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.190807120185205,0.8772654588501247,0.15982135420837043,0.6406821573909381,23.415670659233715,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336,136.8819453749065,0.040116784224211846,0.15384615384615385,13,2624,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.360404169899427,0.8804925693333759,0.1956450949719386,0.6740507590525376,24.635739287973877,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336,139.62075307082546,0.03960583892825086,0.15384615384615385,13,2610,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.241067468977715,0.877294174337735,0.1376169300859154,0.7190394737463094,23.85540218200236,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336,137.14245293614323,0.041293935235784236,0.23076923076923078,13,2605,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.792445156768217,0.926851992418594,0.24129983674159278,0.6724278996690143,22.064025213403717,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332,156.76789515909616,0.07419743427529933,0.15384615384615385,13,1861,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.509454332726868,0.9745038713261279,0.2003144641123554,0.8197592470957229,18.599674886391657,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332,164.26521559984042,0.05008473447427875,0.15384615384615385,13,1753,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.060147253905292,0.9735411850190796,0.2741413481603528,0.7206745210038619,11.414932010080198,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332,157.73033019310944,0.03373391415250971,0.15384615384615385,13,1848,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.433764037944737,1.01443346756498,0.22244434347014233,0.7669540229798096,15.99853798173457,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332,151.61702604933367,0.01005185259576204,0.3076923076923077,13,2101,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.048740399664688,1.2347615452070098,0.36495397456544193,0.9632280223001793,0.0,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,142.18952997685602,0.04150853145040546,0.23076923076923078,13,2459,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.796043621210872,1.1426686552711471,0.34054313309638357,0.9188311034875943,3.1058391261991853,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,142.44068277443432,0.06567389433884345,0.15384615384615385,13,2450,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.732436170396756,1.6635123306506172,0.28165272663413865,0.7023637360700514,-19.1180295486738,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332,214.16781536085196,-0.0026678337735186056,0.15384615384615385,13,1875,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,15.729535388100496,1.1476542044003792,0.348061056904574,0.9047494613603096,1.8072728517992345,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,142.45753142530185,0.04033726327649578,0.15384615384615385,13,2450,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.528730498903368,1.4089669396920779,0.3163194995498038,1.1179894587330994,-3.7524180324637877,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336,147.34903028606035,0.04906463106518234,0.15384615384615385,13,2450,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.132073731350514,0.8768477389661388,0.1598128085353746,0.6401346910299794,23.389080314684904,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114,136.58009376492166,0.04028375869832345,0.15384615384615385,13,2625,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.300115723224902,0.8798846011133141,0.19552160568639385,0.673284558291473,24.62275274720719,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114,139.3110266638574,0.03959699043585151,0.15384615384615385,13,2611,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.181231918695959,0.8766559604169877,0.13758110392801778,0.7184309851356958,23.845516163213897,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114,136.8385339580561,0.04126535525120967,0.23076923076923078,13,2606,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.693716457728524,0.9257761160617627,0.24098103581146768,0.6714446941491885,22.054936562052603,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111,156.3144573404222,0.07393008129166645,0.15384615384615385,13,1862,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.38972517992047,0.973224882075937,0.2003012442965555,0.8183133371596032,18.58792901363211,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111,163.7413205117156,0.049750923964343,0.15384615384615385,13,1754,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.95914998202609,0.9725001320050912,0.27383302011410326,0.7196439049547462,11.398131426647073,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111,157.26841483565295,0.0335518908162616,0.15384615384615385,13,1849,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.343703510446712,1.0133034451905516,0.22229929486477226,0.765890901555478,16.00131700598875,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111,151.20580631418684,0.009680426119603283,0.3076923076923077,13,2102,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.979659264605523,1.2338674973002441,0.364916923529068,0.9624250885426583,0.0,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,141.8531514875738,0.04114597301951117,0.23076923076923078,13,2460,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.726303790476047,1.1417743847747672,0.3405128056513005,0.9178822960672,3.106718472822574,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,142.10175142262938,0.06533026890457264,0.15384615384615385,13,2451,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.600964499736335,1.662090014905427,0.2811447545049346,0.7015189429992219,-19.12177309067501,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111,213.59664411244833,-0.003070692922449878,0.15384615384615385,13,1876,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,15.660141889070218,1.1468817289281992,0.34763773482805826,0.9047439906300838,1.7966928235827928,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,142.11856104544907,0.04022674612464432,0.15384615384615385,13,2451,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.459545717553524,1.4081608501492018,0.3162976591377146,1.1172184590259766,-3.752906618768819,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114,147.01001456323365,0.048985586751185174,0.15384615384615385,13,2451,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-12,Official,ETS,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-12,Official,ETS,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-12,Official,ETS,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688388506817528,11,2619,13,32.552083333333336
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673970869651005,11,2610,13,32.552083333333336
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090988612849467,11,2605,13,32.552083333333336
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786315058763111,11,1861,13,27.208333333333332
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559894816959562,11,1750,13,29.208333333333332
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231478447581122,11,1848,13,27.208333333333332
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5109401281328521,11,2099,13,29.208333333333332
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38623906291005894,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.380029009533091,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749582209501529,11,1875,13,27.208333333333332
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37484711417933025,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
-12,Official,ETS,0.36597749776872984,11,2450,13,32.552083333333336
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6685972674365058,11,2620,13,32.579861111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.667287550910686,11,2611,13,32.579861111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090605875561473,11,2606,13,32.579861111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5786306931827275,11,1862,13,27.23611111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600242030967759,11,1751,13,29.23611111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5230347031961119,11,1849,13,27.23611111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5111630890910988,11,2100,13,29.23611111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863419617364109,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802373436194081,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37482533445449345,11,1876,13,27.23611111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3746876634177591,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.36610960230187517,11,2451,13,32.579861111111114

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -1081,6 +1081,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.482394
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.296997+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.141006+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6152022486628782,0.7843482955058155,0.3580623341341808,0.4635923655454929,65.05888390731526,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.046953+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.10170833418949986,0.3189174410243188,0.1274957953895493,0.2874017685179523,92.90805952667532,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.284877+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.574821653323123,1.2549189827726421,0.026585777296368965,2.8674112318261553,-20.721794239515514,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.197206+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.822254+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:30.995638+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.1344951053732675,1.0651268024856324,0.09497502061556684,0.7479745847077172,26.15540085046168,True
@@ -3587,6 +3588,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.549033
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.306201+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.2761158361191085e-09,,1.8284365387902989e-09,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.187592+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.37843725573137094,0.6151725414315653,0.2922572074594943,0.4434051867383657,76.95687951910372,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.075922+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9233962613456854,0.9609350973638571,0.30187810637977674,0.5827423701157508,49.95097913192589,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.307805+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.5415135552354715,1.594212518842915,0.012275848995344263,0.9427722003004525,-42.15467883298551,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.201219+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.825987+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.039101+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6657052582798209,1.2906220431558655,0.11908254245050692,0.8988337976886078,7.560082828486618,True
@@ -5911,6 +5913,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.562640
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.313878+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2825236033380433e-15,5.729331202974779e-08,,6.615357107869962e-08,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.221296+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.36574680469793125,0.6047700428244865,0.28608727064087747,0.4397456655066325,77.64322553701771,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.123142+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.04030179699394396,0.20075307468117135,0.08316230288518506,0.19021584157516905,97.12834896216654,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.326664+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0984575184741914,1.048073240987571,0.008724977660365665,0.7927190445789167,-3.0136036532619386,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.206732+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.832332+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.097090+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4311949431698534,1.1963256008168734,0.10710830624934586,0.8817827253991883,15.04636600230786,True
@@ -8003,6 +8006,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.569993
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.326443+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.240576+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.50251058725391,0.7088798115716867,0.35132322651387077,0.4697289234172919,70.51577398664047,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.146362+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.23238177937181462,0.48205993338153985,0.12887793218715454,0.2989354203437754,84.50247199079118,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.348701+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6820201291173423,0.8258450999535824,0.006003593525410002,0.7019249701665421,20.520115950994246,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.213503+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.837968+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.152505+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.382726385652977,1.1758938666618586,0.1064178293610573,0.8996423835046102,16.725475110639447,True
@@ -10212,6 +10216,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.577858
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.333568+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.853649481634599e-14,2.8024363474724275e-07,,3.428585403043706e-07,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.273977+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.338729879597323,0.5820050511785297,0.2470404121541935,0.45992184455236146,79.12227989864431,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.170124+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2176757916337967,0.4665573830021305,0.1549577548597925,0.31679635829279046,85.41167662803535,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.369679+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8128088623717792,0.9015591286054283,0.007440082647409962,0.7488798881067281,11.98589841859466,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.219525+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.842732+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.208172+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4942093301403228,1.2223785543522607,0.11234035223885291,0.9157468734477509,12.934246213986109,True
@@ -12314,6 +12319,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.586212
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.340342+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.293290+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6922552883827396,0.8320188029021578,0.41363602515595393,0.5266036599824391,61.52447353013459,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.190686+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.6092324907148057,1.6153118865144296,0.6949151682507098,1.5382506295128675,2.926791935920373,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.383642+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9139924026592858,0.9560294988436737,0.005143003719379281,0.5990590915468247,6.16963548423971,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.225217+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.847666+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.269170+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.3429739451608353,1.1588675270111055,0.09470611107391935,0.8326324368819491,18.139657488416255,True
@@ -14766,6 +14772,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.594190
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.347299+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.313309+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.9061635086929765,1.704747344533194,0.6064386423761423,1.0860352677466272,0.0,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.209523+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.766571075996224,1.6633012583402393,0.7305793440280769,1.598651258758209,0.0,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.434704+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0341880341880343,1.0169503597462535,0.004411953315377709,0.7201515140129007,0.0,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.231053+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.854475+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.393180+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.9381604941943291,1.3921783270092698,0.1269149731679833,1.1440278017140537,0.0,True
@@ -17083,6 +17090,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.614669
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.354321+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,8.884371161146355e-15,9.42569422437751e-08,,5.666846936010543e-08,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.331186+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5110174958631718,0.7148548774843547,0.35410415736556117,0.45505417533969666,70.09128312595504,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.232314+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.17840544149298884,0.4223806831437594,0.13921219446746982,0.29849442707078105,87.88408393523684,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.470715+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.741456679249623,0.8610787880615937,0.00697629072642623,0.6394365275504929,16.48591932401172,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.239274+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.491249695979457e-16,2.119256873524174e-08,,1.9759198709630907e-08,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.859357+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.738915271901205e-15,7.575562864831369e-08,,2.0800295583053752e-08,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.439569+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2926078961513339,1.1369291517730267,0.10380252354860531,0.8127187135418581,19.981395137208427,True
@@ -19057,6 +19065,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.620469
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.366685+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.346114+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.392028383358402,0.6261217001177982,0.28264142601527603,0.5288246386632521,76.22767891078819,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.273019+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1818047678418363,0.42638570313958263,0.13379234610974636,0.32834350976379995,87.66746320881728,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.491344+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0338049756965344,1.016762005435163,0.004434923615014689,0.5096632978420482,0.018523200497726516,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.243161+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.864172+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.487584+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.6839598243957212,1.6382795318246888,0.14775515180583965,1.423268142389536,-16.13543739226792,True
@@ -21129,6 +21138,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.630836
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.379907+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.906315718058047e-17,7.685255830522526e-09,,4.1680416340218845e-09,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.397325+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3710550587253824,0.6091428885946075,0.28998022644313687,0.456356162975056,77.3554890470621,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.338285+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.06257270196353378,0.25014536166703905,0.09431573044890067,0.25794950631626506,95.57656260166048,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.527757+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.132442240908668,1.064162694755209,0.008574129549588886,0.7288395167455044,-4.534885709387978,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.263862+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.873071+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.619505+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.3991163457639386,1.1828424856099558,0.1109776006929878,0.8897268229121463,16.152215542212293,True
@@ -23739,6 +23749,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.625810
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.373198+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.362125+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.33661738301844374,0.580187368889089,0.22727704298135887,0.4741699619381801,79.23896838797583,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.317743+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.06167793384500841,0.24835042549794112,0.1275039546356878,0.18449296205337073,95.63843681158254,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.509658+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0138778409908962,1.0069150118013417,0.009873107307397877,0.8884134784812392,0.9916767543116114,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.255987+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.868759+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.555476+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2071519093124696,1.0987046506283977,0.10344735727774368,0.8717528265991279,23.241207584557806,True
@@ -26055,6 +26066,7 @@ future-c1105fe5be8271ac8733,2026-07-19T15:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:50.637189
 future-c19303daf5a6d4125b33,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-22T03:26:05.386842+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.662046+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.13728069471895,1.4619441489738758,,0.0002841318870123135,-100.0,False
 future-c1bf869e84206cc82d16,2026-07-25T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T05:57:25.423259+00:00,2026-07-24T02:43:52.823003+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.6041593975668493,1.8984623771797136,0.2727748308772538,0.6639346099120522,-10.721371257986815,True
 future-c26206b8216ee41406b9,2026-07-25T20:06:00+00:00,2026-07-25T21:48:15.360899+00:00,2026-07-25T14:19:28.342453+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.22788685856948446,0.47737496642522476,0.045821554418944394,0.19987569822209494,84.77942495441764,True
+future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:20:57.541627+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.184263071715567,1.0882385178422822,0.009191369231242285,0.9406835310955122,-6.764856666354405,True
 future-c470fe96a750f6288ea6,2026-07-15T10:45:00+00:00,2026-07-16T04:54:39.267417+00:00,2026-07-16T04:37:52.523243+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.3779491054283686e-06,0.0011738607691836236,,0.00027340312769781497,-100.0,False
 future-c63570be020ad80e6e0f,2026-07-20T07:40:00+00:00,2026-07-20T15:12:08.877725+00:00,2026-07-20T14:18:17.512426+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.04640069728493282,0.21540821081131709,,0.00026956666509384507,-100.00000000000001,False
 future-c79c95d578faa818605b,2026-07-26T16:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T16:23:31.683082+00:00,2026-07-27T03:25:31.051666+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,27.683402577657873,5.26150193173564,0.11580182513025877,0.9010035824904497,-86.91385400903398,True

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.224989505012516
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.6887482829826201,0.9540036885514395,0.4566297955053868,0.7461177956329675,3.1470638726462545,3.8237247820144815,-0.28120112605567715,9.057596938929015e-07,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.708181502318978,1.213018038814413,0.09454401566012902,0.9460806159180886,-42.96354915049305,1.4475482001763167,-0.015686274509803918,0.7864614601106631,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0916503227619407,1.0146347255455106,0.5465022594907215,0.6345709141123799,25.747175384249985,0.5374288690247903,0.3487335359675785,8.50228697321562e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.19368815726278,3.2432708481639545,0.9485812599476695,2.88149289142794,6.5111983896057275,1752.140039596756,0.22852999067647362,1.8517457722192272e-06,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.29157266986917,3.2332286670256143,0.9439247171059962,2.881421771935002,6.373658022791984,1747.73342465867,0.22709326770240476,2.0220505642364665e-06,198,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6143995287769621,1.071300987091728,0.010071875487467954,0.7740100183681309,28.269168769570957,1.8996766414901718,0.07963854998066172,0.06675174172264038,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.77066292070
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.02785586891715,0.7645296886497267,0.3442084958075155,0.518033025872195,21.88638146494005,2.3488829237605158,-0.3387083770055632,2.6801824527934785e-10,158,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39843412073121276,0.5816743522030585,0.04287278911219057,0.40038261423061633,14.55878920129333,0.31809506761334416,-0.1063576945929887,0.050284842841598065,154,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0413996920396353,0.9904559715658838,0.5363381411707965,0.6362508618104663,28.063020671756387,0.5273720647193769,0.3727987421383648,2.6193163766608677e-12,160,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.93780129334408,2.7563092360919526,0.03239236322753366,2.4658236164876883,24.90617011911599,1685.4745042702116,0.21374789618212425,3.464468529119017e-06,213,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.1742672384931,2.750878877600135,0.0322983608245795,2.4587065537952246,24.56049563998145,1681.5504333404085,0.215918564345575,2.608361591698941e-06,214,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.362298354965361,0.9909761575747218,0.009923004027311918,0.7225046602720693,22.098942754948517,1.5901846812739464,0.22059578839239857,1.3058414977773687e-05,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.76884396
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5283024504079121,0.6226304952000458,0.38224721858727956,0.4164590636262569,13.009778530945106,0.5824227287220827,-0.45487305487305485,1.4744406235679493e-12,111,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4021177413853758,0.5567117199001299,0.04181130974342789,0.4084427067806432,23.163627349829277,0.4328809775144108,-0.20867389491242697,0.001231790341516876,110,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2249135435449419,1.0835341487156682,0.5724419425603384,0.6945384373936527,28.051940779366433,0.5154818339422389,0.17383059418457647,0.00634405866011995,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,212.48574756164203,3.2269971992652864,0.554773947568301,2.949798435378121,29.310718872069184,1941.4691209846785,0.2529874213836478,2.053120842214106e-06,160,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,211.17278302721243,3.213463510083437,0.551382339059556,2.9364004267396164,29.092311287438566,1935.4642213377438,0.2506211180124224,2.3734886599157124e-06,161,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9075679929227745,1.145442111216266,0.010256259035586813,0.8906745144318265,25.146768370353712,2.4464040828135194,0.09780176385415296,0.033282650029523714,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.972878454121812,0
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,3.873994336063469,1.0831333111558656,0.5164406254559749,0.8553311523656505,0.13992619226360067,27.30330920863052,-0.2344906683348973,4.216250622389566e-05,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,17.45568497649454,3.4795570720867355,0.27957054899169465,2.8758967550564543,-79.50890754411088,29.532172381799775,-0.05860566448801742,0.3114692067466157,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0627208446524012,0.9951782002606023,0.5327837275609973,0.6363642991741855,27.90969100864625,0.5963471046096972,0.388855116514691,7.858078893788261e-12,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,178.76364732361125,2.900719583316295,0.05357201105559947,2.686478216300182,21.777737100144545,1752.261783975813,0.14741531130218583,0.0020961241978113437,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.8642451660633,2.890240419258907,0.05333176652261872,2.676455220107588,21.771385478179138,1747.8545795790658,0.14638773522022255,0.002193497794834877,198,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3295117699164924,0.9463672571957353,0.008979569418290392,0.6916022759067921,31.367009216121886,1.6457491264731656,0.30895702405890946,9.19671354596505e-10,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.6702253387
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.47965564978060443,0.5956660891730714,0.34848366280670223,0.4013809873615249,15.145933289401857,0.5589006360416241,-0.33848133848133843,1.2200657712154157e-07,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4634963953001367,0.6057082262287827,0.0457034865384179,0.44773524192345965,13.348458130041319,0.46607801147843353,-0.15184275184275184,0.018159226394582992,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1304647518983042,1.0370727626193432,0.5107380276441154,0.6731193099460583,32.26528489237877,0.5262881896601348,0.21098398169336388,0.0008290829887706363,115,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,210.0189221274689,3.1813411287307973,0.5790501503617447,2.832292384617324,29.472463618135667,1929.5066687859642,0.2956061651713826,2.3597485427031695e-08,162,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,208.73544903995287,3.1673547360919923,0.5755433401303683,2.81951071285959,29.354311150571203,1923.6119771432025,0.2921305763841551,3.111613771875958e-08,163,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.5860092119298526,1.3524317650973139,0.012695978639958229,1.1287234384232716,13.44189853303409,2.9101870458041974,-0.008907024702733534,0.8462843005375524,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.891444
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.5017748959195862,0.9857132449331892,0.46385084507789925,0.7665371738183044,-1.8741387168037815,2.526677990525922,-0.3404233135230945,2.758241029305279e-09,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.8972300393378154,0.905663955821756,0.0656862672956634,0.6428948918829159,-27.54572570625701,0.5286612108990583,0.13398692810457516,0.020667200031528266,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0900319304850437,1.0108731630728574,0.5722630682656018,0.6482504138732484,26.358443456810843,0.5749664615888548,0.36231003039513676,1.840340051391804e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.4243167140933,3.257881756525841,0.07119617911022004,3.041289391642066,3.9061972756374943,1752.1220952404603,0.28488552781518695,2.7646871968739846e-09,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.51769891454057,3.2462562400729014,0.0708625772143067,3.0289548951769385,3.917628781741546,1747.715987666996,0.2804183971696662,4.44105234885671e-09,198,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.089598510340393,1.5130203684629175,0.01368788348877177,1.0266377342367037,0.0,3.1864761823370666,-0.013119213724715898,0.775230539748514,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.907553
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7655677457950825,1.0513798956631837,0.46749250026515726,0.8685246031221482,0.0,2.6608704543301562,-0.3697841726618705,9.056358287895971e-11,140,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.5257595275603967,0.6783968025240044,0.04968687612655689,0.4852245456137986,0.0,0.38004844223522966,-0.11120652640618289,0.053878796658499574,137,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.9160184974416845,1.3322272910097313,0.6519855330675701,1.0464845716678126,0.0,1.0955635614361836,0.5279192887823394,1.148744327006388e-20,142,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.74708443224495,3.3298522945489433,0.08551667193787647,2.7973411447202157,0.0,1747.6927583708946,0.28622128972911903,2.2698863705780893e-09,198,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,178.84902967647582,3.31822967176099,0.08510911053776343,2.7869030058724404,0.0,1743.3198380102253,0.28150803012749326,3.7701191452109054e-09,199,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.3336485273273295,1.369431003685908,0.014044892580721374,1.0786778106569637,3.2340679926689107,2.076739478282935,-0.15919790758500432,0.00125367582101177,186,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ Sundial,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.8814562785987
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.0630461559506057,0.7620902896007227,0.37385369039603655,0.5309431911283826,17.80461534628412,2.4594593887470606,-0.38192656821568893,4.426442662450618e-10,122,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4935316464495441,0.6450704870347259,0.04821520329257284,0.47379551436301814,7.588113899777261,0.4018592296435696,-0.07762427004700186,0.2106635657057584,119,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.251693975777147,1.0962671878187695,0.5879786018429195,0.739115145342716,22.471632285721125,0.5135175973238089,0.19561290322580646,0.001215626874239255,125,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,204.45836987978544,3.417189399018783,0.2845993214047572,3.044217189388549,10.199766461057873,1869.0971648946827,0.28713536765694314,2.0439335477667005e-08,173,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,203.28758302231114,3.402499108151213,0.2830037867456863,3.0303966108722378,10.235893776362206,1863.7513083377737,0.28230682346687924,3.1993283011897625e-08,174,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2930236112584452,0.9657022022428051,0.009435472005290437,0.8282398664622558,23.80957906614156,1.5209091532305468,0.3034135726914185,3.4484971719621384e-09,172,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,3.06693070269
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5207593688768749,0.6059324744797115,0.33946578899065166,0.4981886145297968,11.250230807649105,0.7087378179560665,-0.3686662783925451,4.0035572769852415e-08,102,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4424570805013235,0.609237468913479,0.04596361064961649,0.5016786492264811,8.317577513717845,0.42162408715493516,-0.23287128712871294,0.0005592909204218427,101,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1554855471617163,1.0527346385754788,0.5496779303164246,0.8550534807803529,29.491072472688508,0.4946942567215266,0.10791635548917103,0.1044931719451935,104,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,231.39269497520343,3.477537322802294,0.025956783737213458,3.291594014936264,22.617582389868872,2024.9879561672885,0.27350666293914827,8.852561820264672e-07,147,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,229.83621598872028,3.4609104625498133,0.025811365763414817,3.272797185766708,22.464886043994742,2018.177320021666,0.26916712630998346,1.2075864242601723e-06,148,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6044818304930752,1.0733341728449766,0.00990931419231941,0.775637081946561,29.88973440242601,1.785704738010647,0.053788604049214615,0.21659803303164127,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.468994721394927
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9553859737915604,0.7349143048700336,0.32749906333795475,0.5072903190827633,23.278273669160622,2.176305088417372,-0.2878411910669975,9.66939736663388e-08,156,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.40039407274824257,0.5757323686572832,0.04262929269168316,0.4119597574001226,16.841760024091734,0.36109293968121936,-0.07408388520971303,0.1770547176696976,151,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0632440639767924,1.0024932104134163,0.5446481267295167,0.645186056943566,27.146297533300423,0.5174487039145088,0.37369991131177943,3.19761308814089e-12,158,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,168.0711510826744,2.747626696106807,0.29790952558091216,2.8504494241334366,28.217170104193542,1721.329357068176,0.25753375659483146,2.4253889538801623e-08,212,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,167.28740127590555,2.7397231092460017,0.29655114343992,2.8404888142395968,28.04834507422663,1717.3029137775914,0.25741872619363987,2.2785046606341365e-08,213,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6453848622382907,1.0815005714223864,0.010579608774461076,0.8863769556681769,27.825438502908504,1.8968683448062447,0.06908388757777299,0.1132848151615818,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.473458750
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.0055797219013838,0.7517175499760977,0.3192245281916464,0.5773783063411879,19.355009320160686,2.3567786455997046,-0.31043150397989105,9.896939322329878e-09,155,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4559332200357897,0.612331512201544,0.054318587455278095,0.46862019483793116,11.72485945910723,0.4242874966561998,-0.046004415011037525,0.4018934291528179,151,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0475523130284314,0.9923960873153186,0.4710410591864389,0.7841892243786447,28.42300878663538,0.5372390869456428,0.36354728074473297,1.4042489419322144e-11,157,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,166.69851657117286,2.7741293583505944,0.09381379526156737,2.573318441269919,25.9242161388133,1689.4153211379646,0.25655012071894845,2.7407702503886762e-08,212,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.92065441751004,2.765832577380879,0.09341970752469334,2.5654080893319438,25.795697894563293,1685.4643744228322,0.25617858091947915,2.6597324085571435e-08,213,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.28199037431467,1.2978356815478813,0.009816543535913609,0.7495388373219307,-0.37220432904438483,2.8635395035234312,0.19739292364990688,8.348137639666252e-05,180,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -153,5 +153,5 @@ Toto-1.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.456804836314
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.8393055244351615,1.1402356119049042,0.3920846653690491,0.4222532284837786,-31.208435602748082,3.1096309153263073,-0.42604298356510745,2.237398035686739e-11,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4651649471910055,0.5977159029216539,0.039658822284072026,0.3819123581356033,13.941038759334198,0.6384989130895222,-0.16855036855036856,0.008734084692102254,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.3940537916097533,1.441288244428483,0.5371208405925065,0.7176013128266404,4.039408682085815,2.243356562315245,0.15355142941349836,0.01410361848672397,117,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,283.19099663832344,4.139105791274943,0.9311607837364494,2.752764668024884,0.4377181439752126,2463.886164213718,0.17596887625317972,0.0008242067098647464,164,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,281.481864919738,4.120615686587472,0.9255730903152057,2.7417823581041003,0.38905209795947443,2456.460937984471,0.17073170731707318,0.001133596327774185,165,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.493430638855567,1.1822810283926517,0.2168787045319125,0.7022572165896811,34.8197182017094,0.749996768684687,0.1515151515151515,0.5452047007776174,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:25.539435+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T05:25:00.165636+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ Hazards,Toto-1.0,0.5447067827362504,0.6198857623270299,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.5159030493533491,0.6552873663892604,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.5234081583087049,0.7154825875538315,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.7652594641159696,1.057507146740559,2,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.282185062935625,1.1593661273750293,3,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TiRex,1.7601434797977764,1.2181115345220714,4,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.669749502744596,1.230016084276731,5,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.502772356186331,1.345630170545535,6,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Sundial,1.3149358626625043,1.3578813294245928,7,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.3933078304239097,1.3656846750610254,8,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.822857718065862,1.5697987766413375,9,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.7823948120487276,1.6723544394535688,10,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ETS,2.3101830377998778,1.8643116894683234,11,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ARIMA,1.7969075767873166,2.166778271475671,12,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,0.999629604599128,0.707716762271388,1,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.8837777777779868,0.8318514644351539,2,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Sundial,0.7169457146463295,0.8879194379351649,3,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ETS,0.6594740091465209,0.9746906817639044,4,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TiRex,1.0950061337711912,1.0120641317327677,6,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,0.7859391479132077,1.0398921248304323,7,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.0621448732353749,1.1007670318731235,8,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,0.9803612181482216,1.233648004890988,9,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.1451138792621596,1.306230026308965,10,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-2,2.457496578202893,1.3091303454283423,11,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ARIMA,1.5227614333785564,3.981677710914025,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,Sundial,0.5749554484519669,0.6168000987906006,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Moving-Average,0.5706978288447551,0.7670598909081885,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TiRex,0.7805865358856795,0.8314218866847364,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,18 +11,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Chronos-2,1.0556494832507781,1.1392385682255801,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Chronos-Bolt,1.4884642794846972,1.4269476835433796,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,TabPFN-TS,1.7478073281306592,1.5117066126516778,12,1,1,1.0
-15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moving-Average,0.7652594641159696,1.057507146740559,2,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moirai-2.0,1.282185062935625,1.1593661273750293,3,1,1,1.0
-15min,TiRex,1.7601434797977764,1.2181115345220714,4,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-2,1.669749502744596,1.230016084276731,5,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.502772356186331,1.345630170545535,6,1,1,1.0
-15min,Sundial,1.3149358626625043,1.3578813294245928,7,1,1,1.0
-15min,Toto-1.0,1.3933078304239097,1.3656846750610254,8,1,1,1.0
-15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.822857718065862,1.5697987766413375,9,1,1,1.0
-15min,TabPFN-TS,1.7823948120487276,1.6723544394535688,10,1,1,1.0
-15min,ETS,2.3101830377998778,1.8643116894683234,11,1,1,1.0
-15min,ARIMA,1.7969075767873166,2.166778271475671,12,1,1,1.0
+15min,TabPFN-TS,0.999629604599128,0.707716762271388,1,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moving-Average,0.8837777777779868,0.8318514644351539,2,1,1,1.0
+15min,Sundial,0.7169457146463295,0.8879194379351649,3,1,1,1.0
+15min,ETS,0.6594740091465209,0.9746906817639044,4,1,1,1.0
+15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5,1,1,1.0
+15min,TiRex,1.0950061337711912,1.0120641317327677,6,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moirai-2.0,0.7859391479132077,1.0398921248304323,7,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0621448732353749,1.1007670318731235,8,1,1,1.0
+15min,TimesFM-2.5,0.9803612181482216,1.233648004890988,9,1,1,1.0
+15min,Toto-1.0,1.1451138792621596,1.306230026308965,10,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-2,2.457496578202893,1.3091303454283423,11,1,1,1.0
+15min,ARIMA,1.5227614333785564,3.981677710914025,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,99431.08120129624,13441.965492708745,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.9309774369395093,0.9371898552924247,1,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,2.884320630396638,0.8833545597391912,2,7,7,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,3,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,1.1384002636366242,0.9469225880611203,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,1.4019641076605243,0.997716795668816,5,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,1.2768110124099628,0.9712278598082961,6,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.8111011195140356,0.960128332365197,7,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,1.1883281063757325,0.9980608894705922,8,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,2.2804191282829307,1.6424207969455864,9,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,1.0564959386447839,1.1081161062870235,10,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,4.093200511636659,2.1900961888025345,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,13.723262599777472,4.108566399207834,12,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.8699449986984135,0.9127053068640999,1,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.7467828145630662,0.8491347088059509,2,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,1.2855995445995543,0.9389702197542398,3,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,2.8046090842748517,0.8777554124107921,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,1.21505713421122,0.9437558571938919,6,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,1.2030186467357091,0.9553927012966014,7,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,1.1080781698873634,0.9826742215664691,8,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,2.3278133597862145,1.587060053429145,9,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.9669118484784259,1.0706188311965419,10,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,3.9975367663533308,2.3889849983205615,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,11.473052664673618,3.745021813903586,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,0.8506590809346747,2.893034649329643,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.9823673800295466,4.2756803036819075,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,1.0674064396757312,2.9780744039820224,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.0421300457823208,6.62514951888042,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,107.40843852249436,17.553684118218587,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.8689688423801453,0.9848692533158117,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,1.3336562840138853,8.04153817032242,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.9235606167507879,1.0030334145979591,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.183101854654188,7.332550289852083,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,2.2071403629651187,10.198540294641422,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,4.353448227938762,14.606913496847381,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.9375857264923894,4.138222341607936,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.8201612979944423,2.8520881297861758,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.8311584710498618,0.9218286606318307,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,1.0996151400848977,2.99238874850867,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.0036239353861065,6.5699555121110045,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,1.3485102492919405,7.8944314239331135,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,105.79975936822149,17.493684765489558,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.8805314932883272,0.9846121519868782,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.1519379902570044,7.2201301630277825,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,2.1792128705637865,10.687227756253831,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,3.9532357520683097,13.896100337991573,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.33228586127163234,0.221044549
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ARIMA,0.18230749922286849,0.183752748404339,nan,nan,0.7388780687520423,nan,nan,0.42697482270371456,nan,nan,0.3354118428799675,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ARIMA,2.7311828083012557,2.6264865820946706,nan,nan,0.1724078621252385,nan,nan,1.6526290594992137,nan,nan,1.40979110551692,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.7232125153501406,0.7923220063009001,nan,nan,0.6961902869046782,nan,nan,0.8504190233938448,nan,nan,0.5428553014372848,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,5.463298469296493,9.066976072956653,nan,nan,0.09941960441147114,nan,nan,2.337369989816865,nan,nan,3.0128163353165034,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,1.574821653323123,10.38626986864467,nan,nan,0.026585777296368965,nan,nan,1.2549189827726421,nan,nan,2.8674112318261553,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ARIMA,0.41946174479404164,0.3887520067886783,nan,nan,0.12900699451842257,nan,nan,0.6476586637991046,nan,nan,0.4079750467727446,Web,1,7

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.201896+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.878738+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.700842+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.284704+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.284877+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.03526190188175566,0.03526190188175566,nan,nan,0.2142754133607554,nan,nan,0.1877815269981466,nan,nan,0.1128105078936095,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.16410673128769995,0.16410673128769995,nan,nan,0.03774184875099514,nan,nan,0.4051008902578467,nan,nan,0.20244880321228498,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.8102304159422345,0.8102304159422345,nan,nan,0.6696798883371339,nan,nan,0.9001279997546097,nan,nan,0.5943882512463644,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,5.076688428663051,5.076688428663051,nan,nan,0.07430929788919967,nan,nan,2.253150778057929,nan,nan,1.710286926999298,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,2.5415135552354715,2.5415135552354715,nan,nan,0.012275848995344263,nan,nan,1.594212518842915,nan,nan,0.9427722003004525,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,0.5379146607901764,0.5379146607901764,nan,nan,0.17100514688638668,nan,nan,0.7334266567218404,nan,nan,0.48842848142456025,Web,1,7

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.024573+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.696917+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.790941+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.335946+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.307805+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.3455539255669464,0.345
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.0315256687512563,0.0315256687512563,nan,nan,0.22687084756933662,nan,nan,0.17755469228172005,nan,nan,0.11324269104945375,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.1450432602667658,0.1450432602667658,nan,nan,0.035637463604013306,nan,nan,0.3808454545701784,nan,nan,0.20019480474159065,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.7552138434186063,0.7552138434186063,nan,nan,0.7634659208176218,nan,nan,0.8690304041968878,nan,nan,0.5678434968597075,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,4.5690129082390865,4.5690129082390865,nan,nan,0.07001007111390248,nan,nan,2.137524949150088,nan,nan,1.8710435730709425,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.0984575184741914,1.0984575184741914,nan,nan,0.008724977660365665,nan,nan,1.048073240987571,nan,nan,0.7927190445789167,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.4719500001866968,0.4719500001866968,nan,nan,0.16251649824562261,nan,nan,0.6869861717579887,nan,nan,0.5467640302159011,Web,1,7

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.124515+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.788764+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.827971+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.388918+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.326664+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,7.485363061070757,7.0695469094028
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ETS,2.5428888835315244,2.530076537593773,nan,nan,2.5997353215947006,nan,nan,1.5946438108654624,nan,nan,1.342557334959072,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ETS,12.452798370269898,12.34115277861862,nan,nan,0.3773771852016556,nan,nan,3.528852273795249,nan,nan,3.208539109591422,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,0.7622428758180403,0.8151351844680578,nan,nan,0.6592816996279506,nan,nan,0.8730652185364163,nan,nan,0.560999674348257,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,7.023855660273981,6.731590385041176,nan,nan,0.08549485016070735,nan,nan,2.6502557726140283,nan,nan,2.5922489560163284,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,0.6820201291173423,0.6622233875024927,nan,nan,0.006003593525410002,nan,nan,0.8258450999535824,nan,nan,0.7019249701665421,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ETS,0.5074210195682924,0.45386653897851287,nan,nan,0.15015696096508702,nan,nan,0.7123349068860043,nan,nan,0.46371001820340635,Web,1,7

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.178938+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.870766+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.862876+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.422016+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.348701+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.14372890600255536,0.1437
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.10564495280678117,0.10564495280678117,nan,nan,0.5133721685666653,nan,nan,0.3250306951762882,nan,nan,0.18316449274985008,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.0734721900284958,0.0734721900284958,nan,nan,0.02275719324431839,nan,nan,0.2710575400694395,nan,nan,0.17434889344453325,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.791351220951885,0.791351220951885,nan,nan,0.6814923929319413,nan,nan,0.8895792381524453,nan,nan,0.5917435173406599,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,3.898341674431117,3.898341674431117,nan,nan,0.06430451206600145,nan,nan,1.9744218582742434,nan,nan,1.6120510590081123,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,0.8128088623717792,0.8128088623717792,nan,nan,0.007440082647409962,nan,nan,0.9015591286054283,nan,nan,0.7488798881067281,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moirai-2.0,0.48766161312112155,0.48766161312112155,nan,nan,0.162052999946506,nan,nan,0.6983277261580851,nan,nan,0.4355676130387057,Web,1,7

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.090936+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.770421+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.902869+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.481983+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.369679+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.493630847038398,1.70
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.041860988151372104,0.04105282324310995,nan,nan,0.2848457047844908,nan,nan,0.20459958003713521,nan,nan,0.13257482543254462,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.46389363365167996,0.46328472542874694,nan,nan,0.06932678004397415,nan,nan,0.6810973745740618,nan,nan,0.5319686690368313,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.7282052411227319,0.7756597725288321,nan,nan,0.6963780498305199,nan,nan,0.853349424985294,nan,nan,0.5455312335932018,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,2.3266866437250706,2.1604682277697536,nan,nan,0.048429203539823,nan,nan,1.525348040194457,nan,nan,1.4704203232774926,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,0.9139924026592858,0.8905508072174689,nan,nan,0.005143003719379281,nan,nan,0.9560294988436737,nan,nan,0.5990590915468247,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moving-Average,0.5225479238151219,0.4638223057159223,nan,nan,0.15401827526707126,nan,nan,0.7228747635760443,nan,nan,0.46633423707628346,Web,1,7

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.166812+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.846301+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.971851+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.512021+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.383642+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,17 +1,23 @@
 {
-    "status": "ok",
+    "status": "partial",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:44.491633+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:27.907324+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:52.868574+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T05:25:02.565348+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 4,
-    "issued_tasks": 2,
-    "issued_forecasts": 24,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 24,
+    "task_count": 3,
+    "issued_tasks": 1,
+    "issued_forecasts": 11,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
-    "failed_forecasts": [],
+    "failed_forecasts": [
+        {
+            "model": "TabPFN-TS",
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "error": "TabPFN-TS client authentication preflight failed. Set a valid TABPFN_TOKEN access token, or run a one-time TabPFN browser login outside the daemon environment before live eval."
+        }
+    ],
     "models": {
         "Chronos-2": {
             "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -19,24 +25,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.024573+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.696917+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.790941+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.335946+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.307805+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -47,24 +44,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.039718+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.727969+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.159892+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.671342+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.527757+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -75,24 +63,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.054575+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.744083+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.126181+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.633800+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.509658+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -103,24 +82,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.070196+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.752114+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.197912+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.714988+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.541627+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -131,24 +101,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.090936+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.770421+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.902869+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.481983+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.369679+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -159,24 +120,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.124515+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.788764+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.827971+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.388918+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.326664+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -187,24 +139,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.147958+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.804775+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.090936+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.610833+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.491344+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -215,24 +158,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.158932+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.827560+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.042914+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.561388+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.470715+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -243,24 +177,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.166812+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.846301+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.971851+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.512021+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.383642+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -271,24 +196,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.178938+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.870766+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.862876+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.422016+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.348701+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -299,24 +215,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.201896+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.878738+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:48.700842+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.284704+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.284877+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -327,24 +234,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.219084+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.888164+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.012839+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.533233+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.434704+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -370,7 +268,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-28T05:10:19.587732+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-3d9077a45ae67704fac7.json

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+{
+  "source_task_name": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260728t025000z",
+  "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+  "domain": "Hydrology",
+  "frequency": "15min",
+  "prediction_length": 24,
+  "context": [
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+    2260.0,
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+  ],
+  "context_timestamps": [
+    "2026-07-27T18:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T19:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T19:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T19:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T19:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T20:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T20:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T20:40:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T02:25:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T02:55:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T03:40:00",
+    "2026-07-28T03:55:00",
+    "2026-07-28T04:10:00",
+    "2026-07-28T04:25:00",
+    "2026-07-28T04:40:00",
+    "2026-07-28T04:55:00",
+    "2026-07-28T05:10:00"
+  ],
+  "context_start": "2026-07-27 18:55",
+  "context_end": "2026-07-28 05:10",
+  "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:21.795143Z",
+  "task_id": "future-3d9077a45ae67704fac7",
+  "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.935331+00:00",
+  "status": "open",
+  "scored_models": [],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+}

results/prequential/tasks/future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458.json

@@ -101,7 +101,23 @@
   "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-27T22:49:15.551461Z",
   "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
   "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
-  "status": "open",
-  "scored_models": [],
-  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+  "status": "resolved",
+  "scored_models": [
+    "ARIMA",
+    "Chronos-2",
+    "Chronos-Bolt",
+    "ETS",
+    "Moirai-2.0",
+    "Moving-Average",
+    "Seasonal-Naive",
+    "Sundial",
+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
+    "TimesFM-2.5",
+    "Toto-1.0"
+  ],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+  "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.557290+00:00",
+  "target_start": "2026-07-27T22:55:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00"
 }

results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4220830567678604,1.4
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.012839820821143285,0.012839820821143285,nan,nan,0.12573229372802033,nan,nan,0.11331293315920864,nan,nan,0.08558102887643954,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.048492726544822805,0.048492726544822805,nan,nan,0.016264737771392934,nan,nan,0.22021064130696047,nan,nan,0.12620355450175305,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4996367379063997,1.4996367379063997,nan,nan,0.7920828592703594,nan,nan,1.2245965612831027,nan,nan,0.9727963862627943,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,3.0403892442060383,3.0403892442060383,nan,nan,0.05039438245479031,nan,nan,1.743671197274887,nan,nan,1.3904589938797214,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.0341880341880343,1.0341880341880343,nan,nan,0.004411953315377709,nan,nan,1.0169503597462535,nan,nan,0.7201515140129007,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.1956686926031785,1.1956686926031785,nan,nan,0.24653455434324129,nan,nan,1.0934663655564256,nan,nan,0.8509378537691182,Web,1,7

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.219084+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.888164+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.012839+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.533233+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.434704+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Sundial,0.8427959919452709,0.72880537
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Sundial,0.0998453487697832,0.059222242613951814,nan,nan,0.40525379318442406,nan,nan,0.3159831463381919,nan,nan,0.16637762231625383,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Sundial,0.08005927082392682,0.08839528147546753,nan,nan,0.02753852375541584,nan,nan,0.2829474700786823,nan,nan,0.15517308543499334,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.7807086606349478,0.7757135753093496,nan,nan,0.8357156827887059,nan,nan,0.8835771956286264,nan,nan,0.5737344692976855,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,3.9979168536598664,4.423806752692526,nan,nan,0.06926394075220237,nan,nan,1.9994791455926382,nan,nan,1.888078307119778,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,0.741456679249623,0.7232412070519905,nan,nan,0.00697629072642623,nan,nan,0.8610787880615937,nan,nan,0.6394365275504929,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Sundial,0.3632078483298184,0.3563015156678547,nan,nan,0.1391300563020866,nan,nan,0.602667278296921,nan,nan,0.44954022702632723,Web,1,7

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.158932+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.827560+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.042914+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.561388+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.470715+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -108,5 +108,5 @@ us_births/D/short,TabPFN-TS,112759.78666666668,112759.78666666668,215.285703125,
 us_births/M/short,TabPFN-TS,59338602.666666664,59338602.666666664,6332.360677083333,0.7153333155562595,0.019422224412361785,0.019690368324518204,4.7156280861706295,7703.155370798817,0.0239259480622513,0.01966826908953116,0.015286944232309424,Healthcare,1
 us_births/W/short,TabPFN-TS,1737954.0,1737954.0,983.3291015625,0.8942316441355983,0.013318025640078954,0.013351580926350184,6.532085345899004,1318.3148334142345,0.0178959945969944,0.01334859613394065,0.010610700543554966,Healthcare,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.7849221031196626,0.7849221031196626,nan,nan,0.6780399486512959,nan,nan,0.8859582964901128,nan,nan,0.6960188756063207,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,5.419174015481595,5.419174015481595,nan,nan,0.07682027705467648,nan,nan,2.3279119432404642,nan,nan,2.3253402712928946,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,1.0338049756965344,1.0338049756965344,nan,nan,0.004434923615014689,nan,nan,1.016762005435163,nan,nan,0.5096632978420482,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TabPFN-TS,1.0318417053002116,1.0318417053002116,nan,nan,0.21346065016808555,nan,nan,1.0157960943517215,nan,nan,0.8543722734226411,Web,1,7

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.147958+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.804775+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.090936+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.610833+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.491344+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.161
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.03785281024197016,0.017934866424511135,nan,nan,0.21483569476265685,nan,nan,0.19455798683675302,nan,nan,0.19205918049403484,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.06591225974664346,0.03575909793348882,nan,nan,0.01791180333102477,nan,nan,0.2567338305456518,nan,nan,0.19379445942016174,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.7736671660082207,0.9192549938039831,nan,nan,0.6858045973238216,nan,nan,0.8795835184951004,nan,nan,0.6374611819871363,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,5.54219699972541,6.215406233869209,nan,nan,0.08228977408365698,nan,nan,2.3541871207967753,nan,nan,2.1827408275623315,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.0138778409908962,1.3513171412073017,nan,nan,0.009873107307397877,nan,nan,1.0069150118013417,nan,nan,0.8884134784812392,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.38719216672060525,0.341005570724447,nan,nan,0.12667853599052806,nan,nan,0.6222476731339421,nan,nan,0.5343002043100503,Web,1,7

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.054575+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.744083+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.126181+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.633800+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.509658+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.1330410943866506,0.1330410943
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TiRex,0.054159833785722145,0.054159833785722145,nan,nan,0.3703851807315448,nan,nan,0.23272265421682123,nan,nan,0.16469205232297768,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TiRex,0.050978502304613114,0.050978502304613114,nan,nan,0.01897836106835057,nan,nan,0.2257841940982874,nan,nan,0.145504435828122,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.7237618079022049,0.7237618079022049,nan,nan,0.6982327102959812,nan,nan,0.850741916154485,nan,nan,0.5667071365175703,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,5.351521304236548,5.351521304236548,nan,nan,0.07634472120812692,nan,nan,2.313335536457379,nan,nan,1.6937341387248428,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,1.132442240908668,1.132442240908668,nan,nan,0.008574129549588886,nan,nan,1.064162694755209,nan,nan,0.7288395167455044,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TiRex,0.5500816371095917,0.5500816371095917,nan,nan,0.16152377391214015,nan,nan,0.7416748863953745,nan,nan,0.5062535723576331,Web,1,7

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.039718+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.727969+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.159892+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.671342+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.527757+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.2061994614582545,0.2026127
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.3828962962540734,0.01469619627481291,nan,nan,0.17991828117972739,nan,nan,0.618786147432272,nan,nan,0.10713310781079002,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.06799423538503908,0.053116427317535554,nan,nan,0.020841131477064834,nan,nan,0.26075704282921885,nan,nan,0.14851172111139277,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.8168623027780804,0.8057370308350262,nan,nan,0.7073522246638566,nan,nan,0.9038043498335689,nan,nan,0.6030226294874921,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,4.236198141488906,4.3338073099759296,nan,nan,0.06843427359882005,nan,nan,2.0582026483048033,nan,nan,1.8989285392423076,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,1.184263071715567,1.2318362447632711,nan,nan,0.009191369231242285,nan,nan,1.0882385178422822,nan,nan,0.9406835310955122,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Toto-1.0,1.4142901830281045,0.7431608109672617,nan,nan,0.20031694349088386,nan,nan,1.1892393295834547,nan,nan,0.5963496809202035,Web,1,7

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:09:23.070196+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T05:24:57.752114+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-99ed71da79a924ff6450",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:02:53.785221+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.197912+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-d669556dd24d6496d885",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:05:49.714988+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:17.005606+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T05:20:57.541627+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]