Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:45.794186+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:14.552914+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,33 +13,33 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27350,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2701,
+  "num_model_releases": 27362,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2702,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
-      "num_model_releases": 228,
-      "num_unique_releases": 19,
+      "num_model_releases": 240,
+      "num_unique_releases": 20,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 24 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2658,
-      "num_unique_releases": 222,
+      "num_model_releases": 2670,
+      "num_unique_releases": 223,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26933,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2637,
+      "num_model_releases": 26945,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2638,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 4962
+    "prequential-v1": 4974
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,8.712400102993533,1.3329962940213558,0.2364934980088413,0.9235382272805488,23.04582127713893,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625,34.45049265228295,0.08971024758112528,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,8.084197651854257,1.2627883854614907,0.20880469934538187,0.925146060218413,27.29324743236146,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625,31.67379312516451,-0.24362308575220806,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,8.067878602312268,1.2909056555106755,0.29617233520825004,1.077944578958082,20.94093988816794,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625,31.3694950423679,-0.021400863529985863,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,8.344120399250723,1.3553019546242726,0.6495032765120391,0.991571343806203,17.455718062270872,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125,33.08865535558147,-0.132511974641097,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,8.660911401509315,1.3571639250973773,0.5345201802019014,1.1543836836524672,16.66115860096295,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125,34.38531542558271,0.3119324698033476,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,7.717718464507236,1.3327879253240087,0.8072142202628091,0.9498461719398852,13.631450852515144,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125,29.697068495513935,0.08971024758112528,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,8.544046556699978,1.3259070828422135,0.6726260891665541,1.0504862444685148,11.520879718484991,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125,35.27615973148168,0.3111111111111111,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,9.122754596511127,1.563570812410888,1.2762787301381882,1.2030487269657046,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625,36.83311607397379,0.3693100008582723,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,8.461951405012595,1.4057783641730484,1.3648234728933468,1.1893897523635693,5.696288136141353,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625,35.055100732990915,0.3693100008582723,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,8.594044117252837,1.4949536723768464,0.8688498370235173,1.0745999381287574,-3.3454184565069927,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625,33.86091159145163,-0.021400863529985863,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,8.620041040169546,1.6809510723287218,0.6137268064859845,0.9755663611991757,-21.352149064164593,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125,30.40423428880899,0.15555555555555553,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,7.952976329935859,1.4877053609190476,0.8414150172149155,1.2116896516093427,-8.069059590256625,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625,29.835022748602302,-0.132511974641097,0.0,8,19,0.875,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,7.744355647105364,1.1848855948317802,0.2364934980088413,0.820922868955617,20.48517446856794,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,34.45049265228295,0.08971024758112528,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,7.185953468314896,1.1224785650135136,0.20880469934538184,0.8223520536827835,24.2606643843213,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,31.67379312516451,-0.24362308575220806,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,7.171447646499794,1.1474716937872673,0.29617233520825004,0.9581729590738506,18.614168789482616,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,31.3694950423679,-0.021400863529985863,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,7.4169959104451,1.2047128873132293,0.6495032765120391,0.881396795611238,15.51619383312966,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,33.08865535558147,-0.132511974641097,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,7.698587912452725,1.206367933419891,0.5345201802019014,1.0261188299133042,14.809918756411511,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,34.38531542558271,0.3119324698033476,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,6.86019419067322,1.1847004942873653,0.8072142202628092,0.8443080655978813,1.005734091124572,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,29.697068495513935,0.08971024758112528,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,7.594708050399979,1.1785840759169313,0.6726260891665542,0.9337655527310648,10.240781971986658,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,35.27615973148168,0.3111111111111111,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,8.10911519689878,1.3898407221430116,1.2762787301381884,1.0693766461917376,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,36.83311607397379,0.3693100008582723,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,7.521734582233419,1.2495807790280749,1.3648234728933468,1.0572353632361882,5.063367232125646,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,35.055100732990915,0.3693100008582723,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,7.639150326446968,1.3288477196536734,0.8688498370235173,0.9551999728052443,-2.973705294672883,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,33.86091159145163,-0.021400863529985863,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,7.662268685540678,1.495231936000957,0.6137268064859847,0.867199680641729,-30.09079916814631,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,30.40423428880899,0.15555555555555553,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,7.069312293276321,1.32240477613563,0.8414150172149154,1.0770574958990977,-7.172497413561443,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,29.835022748602302,-0.132511974641097,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.080386358724324,0.8777125191962013,0.159488326676709,0.6404380216385192,23.438801846057427,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625,136.24975734908878,0.03905965977330551,0.23076923076923078,13,2590,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.249724534954323,0.8820550802034423,0.1954473206799852,0.6741584553688384,24.637870832708366,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625,138.97399639241797,0.031311699015596064,0.23076923076923078,13,2577,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.129187893643811,0.8775516907660242,0.13738080804702918,0.7194527383506686,23.982066405418802,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625,136.50432251400045,0.039817979346468614,0.23076923076923078,13,2571,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.598210397625042,0.9254459027908951,0.24109355977633398,0.6712343220601851,22.186011309782785,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125,155.81099770662902,0.070627503348725,0.15384615384615385,13,1883,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.27492585743523,0.972970450115815,0.20259595617362455,0.8184055105362992,18.68801308534023,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125,163.16559312512453,0.049228896132885586,0.15384615384615385,13,1775,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.86112468343608,0.9719388782019386,0.2766126783178733,0.7193627493001855,11.562849008179127,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125,156.7562120147384,0.029435696788500387,0.15384615384615385,13,1870,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.257640907802053,1.0127061490836693,0.2247813364701911,0.765748491033336,16.1693559876763,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125,150.75622115099247,0.006492822830500216,0.3076923076923077,13,2123,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.926102355854443,1.2365979898336765,0.36862819431279736,0.9636783639563459,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625,141.49013423180315,0.03453331224934204,0.3076923076923077,13,2417,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.662308911350745,1.1423248427142112,0.3441303735282311,0.9182223273332009,3.1306177896241483,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625,141.73186505115262,0.07660666896091356,0.15384615384615385,13,2410,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.588032957029668,1.145528839926664,0.34791303007448243,0.9024192338301447,1.8966163669105696,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625,141.73714153075338,0.05645314737234307,0.15384615384615385,13,2410,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.451347405040817,1.6598530985818256,0.28351484310881747,0.7015948774234027,-19.05887635629571,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125,212.94031713482113,-0.0054905959625140876,0.15384615384615385,13,1897,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.354146780245838,1.4003385297167728,0.3156205994678847,1.110887298313899,-3.40995834975547,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625,146.59964940812168,0.07135066149656175,0.15384615384615385,13,2410,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.080386358724324,0.8777125191962013,0.159488326676709,0.6404380216385192,23.438801846057427,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,136.24975734908878,0.03905965977330551,0.23076923076923078,13,2591,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.249724534954323,0.8820550802034423,0.1954473206799852,0.6741584553688384,24.637870832708366,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,138.97399639241797,0.031311699015596064,0.23076923076923078,13,2578,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.129187893643811,0.8775516907660242,0.13738080804702918,0.7194527383506686,23.982066405418802,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,136.50432251400045,0.039817979346468614,0.23076923076923078,13,2572,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.598210397625042,0.9254459027908951,0.24109355977633398,0.6712343220601851,22.186011309782785,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,155.81099770662902,0.070627503348725,0.15384615384615385,13,1884,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.27492585743523,0.972970450115815,0.20259595617362455,0.8184055105362992,18.68801308534023,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,163.16559312512453,0.049228896132885586,0.15384615384615385,13,1776,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.86112468343608,0.9719388782019386,0.2766126783178733,0.7193627493001855,11.562849008179127,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,156.7562120147384,0.029435696788500387,0.15384615384615385,13,1871,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.257640907802053,1.0127061490832174,0.2247813364701911,0.7657484910331035,16.1693559876763,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,150.75622115099247,0.006492822830500216,0.3076923076923077,13,2124,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.926102355854443,1.2365979898336765,0.36862819431279736,0.9636783639563459,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.49013423180315,0.03453331224934204,0.3076923076923077,13,2418,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.662308911350745,1.1423248427142112,0.3441303735282311,0.9182223273332009,3.1306177896241483,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.73186505115262,0.07660666896091356,0.15384615384615385,13,2411,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.588032957029668,1.145528839926664,0.34791303007448243,0.9024192338301447,1.8966163669105696,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.73714153075338,0.05645314737234307,0.15384615384615385,13,2411,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.451249265333672,1.6597978391371073,0.28351484310881747,0.7015948756560871,-19.05887635629571,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,212.94000234568813,-0.0056138115947814045,0.15384615384615385,13,1898,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.354146780245838,1.4003385297167728,0.3156205994678847,1.110887298313899,-3.40995834975547,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,146.59964940812168,0.07135066149656175,0.15384615384615385,13,2411,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,116.79461684880233,1.7530022906756937,0.15742317818587015,1.536887981093986,17.01223979328009,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625,449.1090759835067,-0.13437704023182503,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,117.58736857184182,1.738525836033389,0.15757677877167167,1.8169063759173458,18.798981288302254,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625,457.980398719262,-0.17328584253666618,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.69380147917038,1.7357457033250203,0.13877087428679763,1.609429329415007,17.32174297098779,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625,449.13567979507394,-0.17247423755730149,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.7668999161347,1.7717862428563225,0.22745301267623094,1.535194363985146,14.7332147834883,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125,449.2381481569912,-0.08682277972174363,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.94855897263248,1.841410210329837,0.21870786206261542,1.7139703037533085,8.779049717715639,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125,449.2460110430789,-0.12073458974508865,0.08333333333333333,12,221,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.77450660940876,1.792433000751766,0.25320520735098295,1.583144116454388,6.006030596491754,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125,449.3507166000307,-0.09099426760230528,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,116.90180110088517,1.7954226094195995,0.2368249836993733,1.6004818162852563,14.229897661555752,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125,449.3253665569653,-0.17392529693944972,0.0,12,221,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.34207231294421,1.986367216687307,0.3540122150055373,1.6208194900161939,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625,449.64101833812236,-0.1171759424304923,0.08333333333333333,12,221,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,117.12623043304042,1.943359008919213,0.3628022767751164,1.7516858974106218,-2.863215186730589,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625,449.4223808705361,-0.04545483193976307,0.08333333333333333,12,221,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,117.18264061267466,2.0124722978551097,0.296193443201697,1.738052653511299,-7.03959979711398,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625,449.34189915491174,0.03502919099394685,0.08333333333333333,12,221,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,157.8493265190505,2.3618698452272624,0.21872910478488014,1.4775840244994443,-25.24127353703079,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125,576.3808504408817,-0.10815576959909488,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,118.3763080776048,2.28439819681289,0.4001649400227755,2.016886796733593,-12.65071651598113,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625,450.543974537005,0.028160199063854606,0.0,12,221,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,116.79461684880233,1.7530022906756937,0.15742317818587015,1.536887981093986,17.01223979328009,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,449.1090759835067,-0.13437704023182503,0.08333333333333333,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,117.58736857184182,1.738525836033389,0.15757677877167167,1.8169063759173458,18.798981288302254,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,457.980398719262,-0.17328584253666618,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.69380147917038,1.7357457033250203,0.13877087428679763,1.609429329415007,17.32174297098779,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,449.13567979507394,-0.17247423755730149,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.7668999161347,1.7717862428563225,0.22745301267623094,1.535194363985146,14.7332147834883,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,449.2381481569912,-0.08682277972174363,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.94855897263248,1.841410210329837,0.21870786206261542,1.7139703037533085,8.779049717715639,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,449.2460110430789,-0.12073458974508865,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.77450660940876,1.792433000751766,0.25320520735098295,1.583144116454388,6.006030596491754,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,449.3507166000307,-0.09099426760230528,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,116.90180110088517,1.7954226094171923,0.2368249836993733,1.6004818162839802,14.229897661555752,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,449.3253665569653,-0.17392529693944972,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.34207231294421,1.986367216687307,0.3540122150055373,1.6208194900161939,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,449.64101833812236,-0.1171759424304923,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,117.12623043304042,1.943359008919213,0.3628022767751164,1.7516858974106218,-2.863215186730589,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,449.4223808705361,-0.04545483193976307,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,117.18264061267466,2.0124722978551097,0.296193443201697,1.738052653511299,-7.03959979711398,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,449.34189915491174,0.03502919099394685,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,157.8487162980343,2.361588578498039,0.21872910478488014,1.4775840162747336,-25.24127353703079,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,576.3786862651649,-0.10893012380963421,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,118.3763080776048,2.28439819681289,0.4001649400227755,2.016886796733593,-12.65071651598113,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,450.543974537005,0.028160199063854606,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.078065068575906,0.8766535483733674,0.15953323969616653,0.640094227938368,23.541724568850476,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625,136.2483868631424,0.03695096501847429,0.23076923076923078,13,2646,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.244917843113551,0.8796426751776919,0.19521721691024888,0.6731180429691108,24.755960493385693,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625,138.97119542160365,0.03641710404854416,0.23076923076923078,13,2632,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.126603333827005,0.8764518303670588,0.13730404384642136,0.7184980187573748,23.96900556515701,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625,136.5046275795586,0.0380487899153008,0.23076923076923078,13,2627,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.598210397625042,0.9254459027908951,0.24109355977633398,0.6712343220601851,22.186011309782785,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125,155.81099770662902,0.070627503348725,0.15384615384615385,13,1883,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.27492585743523,0.972970450115815,0.20259595617362455,0.8184055105362992,18.68801308534023,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125,163.16559312512453,0.049228896132885586,0.15384615384615385,13,1775,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.86112468343608,0.9719388782019386,0.2766126783178733,0.7193627493001855,11.562849008179127,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125,156.7562120147384,0.029435696788500387,0.15384615384615385,13,1870,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.257640907802053,1.0127061490836693,0.2247813364701911,0.765748491033336,16.1693559876763,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125,150.75622115099247,0.006492822830500216,0.3076923076923077,13,2123,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.919493334610651,1.234637884109997,0.3686635342991805,0.9625335066834771,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625,141.4867267368033,0.041288385765355755,0.3076923076923077,13,2481,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.662333735847872,1.1426834584369954,0.34443107822900676,0.9188370328414958,3.0355950244297385,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625,141.73186696374253,0.06739383887679619,0.15384615384615385,13,2472,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.596662660361245,1.147894412760133,0.34837499183858667,0.904437822829355,1.7633390883759028,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625,141.7466417805074,0.04311180078008363,0.15384615384615385,13,2472,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.451347405040817,1.6598530985818256,0.28351484310881747,0.7015948774234027,-19.05887635629571,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125,212.94031713482113,-0.0054905959625140876,0.15384615384615385,13,1897,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.388041690382966,1.4080466236212024,0.3166483457983693,1.1172099706824348,-3.746510829114072,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625,146.62116694540384,0.04996320858111057,0.15384615384615385,13,2472,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.078065068575906,0.8766535483733674,0.15953323969616653,0.640094227938368,23.541724568850476,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,136.2483868631424,0.03695096501847429,0.23076923076923078,13,2647,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.244917843113551,0.8796426751776919,0.19521721691024888,0.6731180429691108,24.755960493385693,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,138.97119542160365,0.03641710404854416,0.23076923076923078,13,2633,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.126603333827005,0.8764518303670588,0.13730404384642136,0.7184980187573748,23.96900556515701,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,136.5046275795586,0.0380487899153008,0.23076923076923078,13,2628,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.598210397625042,0.9254459027908951,0.24109355977633398,0.6712343220601851,22.186011309782785,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,155.81099770662902,0.070627503348725,0.15384615384615385,13,1884,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.27492585743523,0.972970450115815,0.20259595617362455,0.8184055105362992,18.68801308534023,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,163.16559312512453,0.049228896132885586,0.15384615384615385,13,1776,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.86112468343608,0.9719388782019386,0.2766126783178733,0.7193627493001855,11.562849008179127,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,156.7562120147384,0.029435696788500387,0.15384615384615385,13,1871,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.257640907802053,1.0127061490832174,0.2247813364701911,0.7657484910331035,16.1693559876763,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,150.75622115099247,0.006492822830500216,0.3076923076923077,13,2124,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.919493334610651,1.234637884109997,0.3686635342991805,0.9625335066834771,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.4867267368033,0.041288385765355755,0.3076923076923077,13,2482,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.662333735847872,1.1426834584369954,0.34443107822900676,0.9188370328414958,3.0355950244297385,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.73186696374253,0.06739383887679619,0.15384615384615385,13,2473,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.596662660361245,1.147894412760133,0.34837499183858667,0.904437822829355,1.7633390883759028,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.7466417805074,0.04311180078008363,0.15384615384615385,13,2473,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.451249265333672,1.6597978391371073,0.28351484310881747,0.7015948756560871,-19.05887635629571,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,212.94000234568813,-0.0056138115947814045,0.15384615384615385,13,1898,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.388041690382966,1.4080466236212024,0.3166483457983693,1.1172099706824348,-3.746510829114072,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,146.62116694540384,0.04996320858111057,0.15384615384615385,13,2473,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2641,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2632,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2627,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1883,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1772,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1870,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120470266063228,11,2121,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2472,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595355475174,11,2472,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498962867903357,11,2472,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1897,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662363549346423,11,2472,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -819,6 +819,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.806906
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.725589+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.1480194799646328,1.0714567093283016,0.018248280940370967,1.876092636694781,-1.8626405043590786,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.487126+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.673102+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9414525875865389,0.9702847971531549,0.3123400115565154,0.8110843256167879,6.574939440333732,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.297471+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.293201+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.838613+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.275161+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3880011251222865,0.6228973632327292,0.013148519636055941,1.013878300279442,47.85408585379946,True
@@ -3347,6 +3348,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.810412
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.728690+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7766395560564948,0.881271556364152,0.007874418475201143,0.7378126469451309,17.49612416931641,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.553261+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.679428+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2008997658120683,0.4482184353772927,0.1345758352937161,0.22780972269456537,68.48297030210244,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.369270+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.311067+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.843585+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.309926+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.08840222683743608,0.29732511975518666,0.002894309814063975,0.23711727370139674,85.12419877071518,True
@@ -5693,6 +5695,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.818628
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.733825+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7007968237995718,0.8371360843970183,0.007420226484356154,0.713511948486998,22.42808803921792,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.571386+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.687287+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3614586079120525,0.6012142778677603,0.21833112442642377,0.4492733312948395,49.63736333650969,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.409356+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.328057+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.849828+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.351013+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.11153683757844951,0.3339713125081996,0.003286516186645731,0.3480450087587948,81.58959830360641,True
@@ -7807,6 +7810,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.823985
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.738088+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9931296801424873,0.9965589195539255,0.008891222762706695,0.8698645014154598,5.378563257633374,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.611444+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.694949+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.720592226004787,0.8488770382127125,0.2735585657376831,0.6954395831442732,19.691366316106087,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.455925+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.354048+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.857753+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.388668+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3060415695641366,0.5532102399306583,0.005197272549176861,0.3795445986299186,56.47181876704745,True
@@ -10038,6 +10042,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.829597
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.742443+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9078380999144094,0.952805384070855,0.008614364810342176,0.8089813902432015,9.841558548730177,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.647524+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.703568+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.31678836503692065,0.5628395553236469,0.19740723327623788,0.331493359313577,54.44363391881693,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.511668+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.369988+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.862651+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.412006+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.041368999272813435,0.20339370509633142,0.0020072584256065804,0.2680244057618259,92.75184408515521,True
@@ -12162,6 +12167,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.834897
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.746529+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.046420389194073,1.0229469141622516,0.00911503056065781,0.8941185548511668,2.7695895524726675,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.669275+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.710643+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.075726326564531,1.0371722742941651,0.3251339672652519,0.8392511954822006,-0.08193026922988911,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.536254+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.424202+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.868044+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.442977+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.28461553657808564,0.5334937080960614,0.005851715447702549,0.411294999789852,58.892883041306014,True
@@ -14636,6 +14642,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.840008
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.750625+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.1060345564914609,1.0516817752968153,0.00922587439024143,0.7171949867699221,0.0,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.729424+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.717597+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0739650786086608,1.036322864076954,0.34573506669388204,0.8741956666584341,0.0,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.603257+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.443935+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.873426+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.463187+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.1001351228470366,1.0488732634818358,0.009642350863508157,0.6703551354178896,0.0,True
@@ -16975,6 +16982,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.845139
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.755622+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5469785675131923,0.7395799939919903,0.006591759453248153,0.6292316692122183,33.82042047094448,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.762543+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.239326185700335e-16,2.0589624051206798e-08,,2.029662311964631e-08,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.724801+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0061905064138110515,0.07867977131265096,0.026464584471229045,0.07691516216618109,98.85377504877091,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.642247+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.2085183913691496e-16,2.0514673751656763e-08,,1.883146393924609e-08,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.466980+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.663218247688461e-16,2.1594485980658258e-08,,2.0554192155190725e-08,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.881944+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.4582988638174604e-16,1.8596501993163823e-08,,1.995220426900504e-08,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.493005+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.43940921848010617,0.6628794901640163,0.00670277050266713,0.36061415587718176,42.91697787654241,True
@@ -18971,6 +18979,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.850579
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.763224+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.059701178138914,1.029417883145088,0.00935671396070718,1.0125629787471346,2.139382825506848,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.803459+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.732666+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.021065974737774707,0.14514122342661545,0.054862820076351806,0.10557736730901643,96.15244249496001,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.695463+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.473971+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.886812+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.528013+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.04662496458872861,0.21592814681909492,0.0022534985397917894,0.1884641380555748,91.8684012288943,True
@@ -21065,6 +21074,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.860095
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.771420+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6969419160012454,0.8348304714139545,0.007432460591592371,0.6906975268746183,22.689849076323448,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.878283+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.747556+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1771240562069574,0.42086108896755636,0.12584641060931323,0.34968781602719357,71.68482224361074,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.760321+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.504223+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.897552+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.727210+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1811241352567867,0.42558681283233707,0.004129277017311939,0.3872796310787302,71.72716854747443,True
@@ -23697,6 +23707,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.855441
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.767494+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6565931237844028,0.8103043402231058,0.008470917050547812,0.7152359850783844,25.498375960867545,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.849177+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.740202+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.010689057857293282,0.10338789995591013,0.018944861145060235,0.07549150045842185,98.02903847449092,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.734065+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.486916+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.892264+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.550129+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.05812463634081555,0.24109051482962898,0.003137198117540541,0.20632353111651106,89.96345407327775,True
@@ -26035,6 +26046,7 @@ future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.865075
 future-10a00d569bf21d639023,2026-07-19T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.775749+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.887812+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.8518164372889838,1.3608146226760587,0.009140883717860095,0.8464551044574836,-25.213639306567476,True
 future-10c309e0c6bd8c7bc4e0,2026-07-25T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.916308+00:00,2026-07-26T13:17:47.072710+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2808617691013497,0.5299639318872085,,0.00027687753931281297,-100.0,False
 future-1181e9f911508e00b965,2026-07-21T13:24:00+00:00,2026-07-21T13:36:00.754771+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.808680+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8387711142951565,0.9158444815006292,0.28658833574508474,0.6118401210763995,12.296205048352483,True
+future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:39.829301+00:00,2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,8.984850971594579e-05,0.009478845378839439,,0.00026623618215563947,-100.0,False
 future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3,2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.529949+00:00,2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0006371931319497955,0.025242684721514776,,0.0002738998487647795,-100.0,False
 future-149e386010b2561f1d07,2026-07-15T01:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:29:32.903260+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.344174+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0104125040130319e-05,0.0031786986394010865,,0.0002714473387775932,-100.0,False
 future-162c5d588c33ce9246a2,2026-07-26T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:20:01.772992+00:00,2026-07-25T02:15:07.111204+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1553566973471284,0.39415313946121044,0.00301073494351038,0.2741903561954342,75.25165917479222,True

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ model,dataset,domain,frequency,prediction_lengths,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,Stabili
 ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.0362152760069723,1.262423873577054,0.014552071672063134,1.1868424577746526,9.843546699249252,2.1311933119335262,0.03426791277258567,0.45576305814672124,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9083101123257313,1.261258169978178,0.011845155708664644,1.1042089583487873,17.948263157190265,1.7646338660449543,-0.19354838709677422,0.12407814866273859,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.574801792921388,0.3775421284658133,,0.15440428034146833,-31.01589066472305,73.26459055869451,0.05710824534798599,0.19862527354246362,268,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,533,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,534,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 ARIMA,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.0372713909008047,1.338757409135639,0.08841225349586862,1.0471920629078773,-60.04842052552159,1.3229518329527603,-0.019704433497536943,0.8964941426465813,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.2060504821363578,0.9682660005889143,1.313555623465233,0.7584494437933518,5.442731988369674,1.182785366482018,0.07446037756482987,0.02956407350654144,383,0.9973890339425587,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 ARIMA,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.6385208933872897,1.4283075478167082,0.13257123668271448,1.040856298142758,11.599751322724188,3.387405867464201,-0.1259627917999763,0.0013559336904469704,291,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.125765698900247
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6143995287769621,1.071300987091728,0.010071875487467954,0.7740100183681309,28.269168769570957,1.8996766414901718,0.07963854998066172,0.06675174172264038,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.332696070190381,0.32574527955927235,,0.14346476519134935,-30.261878389434006,71.89606861229683,0.034165869432003365,0.43108637329265587,279,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.7296862743653318e-18,1.3151753777977037e-09,,2.3561627471096824e-09,0.0,3.855347313561963e-34,0.0,1.0,553,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.7296862743653318e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,3.855341010035146e-34,0.0,1.0,554,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3050272072682975,0.4849039749140633,0.03248454496927092,0.32868574233935344,8.695873973865309,0.3637335838792971,-0.31034482758620685,0.018062900791912716,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3288365163158683,0.47898873599571934,0.4810264349560084,0.31459949843662444,50.46816443679802,0.4223076100328461,-0.04574384933189414,0.1707564777046725,402,0.9975124378109452,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.7848457139716434,1.4848475662007146,0.14693074912639478,1.011236623933736,7.2816707377972865,3.4629891740059575,-0.047808850316082716,0.21227521633912982,306,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.362298354965361,0.9909761575747218,0.009923004027311918,0.7225046602720693,22.098942754948517,1.5901846812739464,0.22059578839239857,1.3058414977773687e-05,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.099355939115682,0.4617297243888355,,0.1854050133328849,-23.19166683790143,86.13263139207278,0.037661811418234804,0.47024968743823803,194,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.045994219755676e-06,,3.214861849916891e-06,-100.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,411,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.0941039077622845e-12,1.045994219755676e-06,,3.214861849916891e-06,-100.0,2.0219392178681666e-28,0.0,1.0,412,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.34961672975930663,0.4845803469664631,0.032520078799656196,0.33712340507115973,9.025963259699289,0.562485284793877,-0.19999999999999996,0.16991295403230983,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3253515272630614,1.0448927831917765,1.1296465442538672,0.7016295682638084,7.282898884800594,1.0703980299202227,-0.002922400340473826,0.9433763830218344,266,0.9962406015037594,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.033632408964443,1.5699591385220844,0.14158472411479958,1.0760730302938917,-1.461852082141302,3.7510905371723355,-0.06073823929459219,0.1936657353807152,207,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.58882279
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9075679929227745,1.145442111216266,0.010256259035586813,0.8906745144318265,25.146768370353712,2.4464040828135194,0.09780176385415296,0.033282650029523714,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.592926858670435,0.37284382204806227,,0.15048026965117559,-30.98249181800597,73.31945533865763,0.08840670017828951,0.04659196455384205,268,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,533,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,534,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 ETS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,5.660516480548183,2.225192339732908,0.15960783427971914,1.7959679609048849,-79.30302139698192,3.8990647260009315,0.04926108374384236,0.7239201974279224,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 ETS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.9076461869872718,1.2277913083938614,1.4784617480562567,0.9332928388553625,-11.712999602633158,1.7082000358290674,0.08897789564337757,0.009319299599513981,383,0.9973890339425587,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 ETS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,5.86698631988748,1.9087083475755442,0.18488940777214716,1.5250234839294265,-5.189072097723662,12.018560086343216,-0.17791207489038985,6.033738897459972e-06,291,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3295117699164924,0.9463672571957353,0.008979569418290392,0.6916022759067921,31.367009216121886,1.6457491264731656,0.30895702405890946,9.19671354596505e-10,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.053444013409278,0.45939456495130754,,0.18277124094974911,-23.184263100676272,85.91901441492845,0.02618096884182165,0.6149883122173117,195,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,412,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,413,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.34076853139363533,0.5028654711604497,0.033287769041700964,0.34285408620963204,0.43057480191444525,0.537567756002475,-0.22666666666666663,0.11834341824544657,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.7116749961313786,0.710454454348601,0.869496951606816,0.47057527539225547,38.344109750915855,0.8606027242333519,0.05206837318014137,0.20483644785286248,267,0.9962546816479401,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8638291699977474,1.5103868711906467,0.13633443584585742,1.0170451619303642,3.335990174991888,3.674370048527256,-0.02898417372101583,0.5330829839255911,209,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.3257669497
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.5860092119298526,1.3524317650973139,0.012695978639958229,1.1287234384232716,13.44189853303409,2.9101870458041974,-0.008907024702733534,0.8462843005375524,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.632043259440929,0.3972609634327042,,0.17385157934520046,-31.812833256479355,73.32783914081048,0.0822988655121418,0.06395814930789846,268,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,533,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,534,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.9273834742740605,0.9016982078707616,0.0646813713439241,0.6859666764987647,-41.28342324098874,0.6697749727682409,-0.05911330049261083,0.668894784416208,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.4201586341973464,1.0346476382103607,2.1180370936014405,0.9051781316458232,5.44647878983116,1.5885722102232613,0.16112804669664946,2.4956356702172325e-06,383,0.9973890339425587,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.627146754646669,1.432445352814104,0.14149572803967314,1.1351683177750536,11.470856549426896,3.494672802345513,-0.09387368171584311,0.016954988771933525,291,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.023478
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.089598510340393,1.5130203684629175,0.01368788348877177,1.0266377342367037,0.0,3.1864761823370666,-0.013119213724715898,0.775230539748514,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.963260771116938,0.44827645631801816,,0.17509277531894146,0.0,73.22825220771993,0.16131688271130307,0.0008784635561025879,269,0.0,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,534,0.0,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,535,0.0,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39647700304925787,0.54863940015927,0.03875276121808834,0.39106434616248387,0.0,0.46887968125286356,-0.33004926108374383,0.011674730549296571,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.4912094560887519,1.072210981754189,2.1482602954457506,0.9429624177881326,0.0,1.6130103860368963,0.17955831157528282,1.4886068041973712e-07,384,0.9973958333333334,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.0679597303757355,1.5791794115126205,0.14946815975025615,1.2803452594861757,0.0,3.586989523174458,-0.09024149131478604,0.021488764817594316,292,1.0,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.865413
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.3336485273273295,1.369431003685908,0.014044892580721374,1.0786778106569637,3.2340679926689107,2.076739478282935,-0.15919790758500432,0.00125367582101177,186,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.63900070349807,0.4121165386588183,,0.15997531553240965,-30.082747831582285,78.93840864161722,0.03625070581592321,0.41208657247954994,231,0.0,2026-07-01T00:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,6.632880111220287e-16,2.3245691159029833e-08,,2.0236785778401046e-08,0.0,1.408732390477415e-15,0.0,1.0,464,0.0,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,6.627666430102328e-16,2.3239818003315052e-08,,2.0233763580897486e-08,0.0,1.4072584512934057e-15,0.0,1.0,465,0.0,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 Sundial,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.30978891113489,0.4956772566894806,0.032907023608860275,0.3317689795201935,4.092702437208488,0.35559679062311217,-0.37321937321937326,0.005900024667731748,27,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.39131695869063426,0.5418236338830404,0.8190821698512953,0.35795871286736813,53.25576252770587,0.38878500344937167,0.04299994085290117,0.2519120785466602,319,0.9968652037617555,2026-07-01T07:24:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 Sundial,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.20139712414444,1.652155521887421,0.16529482288710393,1.227980659624075,-4.909278036449144,3.5372045212964016,-0.10078529542882617,0.01954951073186453,242,1.0,2026-06-30T09:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@ Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.3116635320842
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2930236112584452,0.9657022022428051,0.009435472005290437,0.8282398664622558,23.80957906614156,1.5209091532305468,0.3034135726914185,3.4484971719621384e-09,172,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.342405201308805,0.4759370404606209,,0.18862015029153206,-23.47828347651677,87.27142303092363,0.0324943681590907,0.5406371678209827,189,0.0,2026-07-01T12:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,397,0.0,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,398,0.0,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3627555185114735,0.5107314929902669,0.03355682757102783,0.40559998873585773,3.718126622914688,0.4992065903079575,-0.23692307692307696,0.09409290644202206,26,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.9678792716449196,0.870025750174991,0.9521682642450833,0.7087399515945807,22.914778968772705,0.8952348122620243,-0.01599843280658221,0.7074626916816624,248,0.9959677419354839,2026-07-01T12:54:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8965241701381843,1.5115122484193086,0.13545207495015701,1.2775550950464394,3.1517594791754173,3.769465510745802,-0.03422291993720566,0.4762684009050038,196,1.0,2026-06-30T13:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.33052701666
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6044818304930752,1.0733341728449766,0.00990931419231941,0.775637081946561,29.88973440242601,1.785704738010647,0.053788604049214615,0.21659803303164127,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.350821463144064,0.32218664498834126,,0.14315888904598756,-30.261259168804088,72.02898811259058,0.0,1.0,278,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955703e-09,,1.3977486927145102e-09,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,552,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.42969816419557e-09,,1.3977486927145102e-09,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,553,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 TiRex,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.30586831742315235,0.47141716039930026,0.031164447064971287,0.32074666933005247,14.706159785040878,0.396419029203761,-0.2807881773399014,0.03315447182691332,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3896776935991885,0.5209698255900072,0.6173033563658767,0.3479131875956869,45.9145932684719,0.5004100322050391,-0.03499956576221138,0.29461794716988743,402,0.9975124378109452,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 TiRex,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8917975765518036,1.5078824753640498,0.15020125690488692,1.0293235426522636,5.885239115240805,3.5915105256167124,-0.14171699741156168,0.00022312563497619732,305,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.284495726475147
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6453848622382907,1.0815005714223864,0.010579608774461076,0.8863769556681769,27.825438502908504,1.8968683448062447,0.06908388757777299,0.1132848151615818,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.350761425513798,0.3230431315301687,,0.13249111559706106,-27.988888893592872,72.0278052191559,0.1123829825278298,0.010630220720091165,278,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,552,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,553,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3226648021472211,0.5095483963504411,0.038763270367779684,0.36433482943848794,2.8079116098780363,0.3359394049576855,-0.3546798029556649,0.006518643400864223,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.17443514291488008,0.35645215822601606,0.2644474810231037,0.2747314379111971,62.69325834555987,0.20428158683618694,-0.011503759398496242,0.7311403438006929,400,0.9975,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.693707921983544,1.4692699579335124,0.1324856504788307,1.230100155381586,7.190343869941421,3.259170685929356,-0.09767040552200172,0.010958870572059113,305,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
@@ -145,7 +145,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.262893428
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.28199037431467,1.2978356815478813,0.009816543535913609,0.7495388373219307,-0.37220432904438483,2.8635395035234312,0.19739292364990688,8.348137639666252e-05,180,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,11.627211876031778,1.4937179918766348,,0.18631220042697727,-86.86165898403662,86.23216209384512,0.012212529738302938,0.7998577084236917,195,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.5295535685510677,0.3076035496337809,,0.00027577084874721877,-100.0,3.4670516594039467,-0.015451918915441391,0.6386305596826893,414,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T13:10:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.528277752358197,0.30688517685244365,,0.00027574787364699813,-100.0,3.462959400674976,-0.017053722134916478,0.6038115212635551,415,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.6842781864590141,0.6536203898554627,0.031095016624194248,0.31729018203317877,-12.202435017151721,1.3289735382530592,-0.20666666666666664,0.1556965251316672,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3109937519329997,0.9630282334149433,0.7983330994567214,0.394252833358298,16.67968970283254,2.4737049391912036,0.01842090661931976,0.6525248364160691,269,0.9962825278810409,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,55.65293329286992,5.102457599852986,0.13006160412664045,1.0249056328688833,-64.96927793034399,180.8784334231431,-0.08724892800722185,0.059375976260592184,211,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.900961+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:12.360995+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -64,13 +64,13 @@ Transportation,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,TiRex,1.0,1397.7486927145103,4,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Chronos-2,1.0,2356.162747109683,5,1,1,1.0
-Transportation,Sundial,1.0,20308.389622644594,6,1,1,1.0
+Transportation,Sundial,1.0,18831.463939246103,6,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,ARIMA,1.0,250217.138218906,7,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,ETS,1.0,250217.138218906,8,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Moving-Average,1.0,250217.138218906,9,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Moirai-2.0,1.0,410051.5180343537,10,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Chronos-Bolt,1.094103907762285,3214861.8499168884,11,1,1,1.0
-Transportation,Toto-1.0,88480579.5474775,292974886.7775999,12,1,1,1.0
+Transportation,Toto-1.0,89848509.71594587,266236182.15559962,12,1,1,1.0
 Web,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 Web,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 Web,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -62,12 +62,12 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 5min,TabPFN-TS,0.0003248674156810929,0.0290402573565316,1,2,2,1.0
 5min,TimesFM-2.5,0.0032402748536278503,0.11208198975048217,2,2,2,1.0
 5min,ETS,0.017776571295061532,0.0005002170910903647,3,2,2,1.0
-5min,Sundial,0.014462641999751278,14.773921098860363,4,2,2,1.0
+5min,Sundial,0.014462641999751278,14.226565683969417,4,2,2,1.0
 5min,TiRex,0.0007346369732499883,13.74678311531299,5,2,2,1.0
 5min,Moirai-2.0,0.0012980426989733518,37.22979171160598,6,2,2,1.0
 5min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,2,2,1.0
 5min,Chronos-2,0.0019096363163090973,21.65043400418739,8,2,2,1.0
-5min,Toto-1.0,2199.8121023842905,767.1240643667528,9,2,2,1.0
+5min,Toto-1.0,2216.75168230092,731.280423551839,9,2,2,1.0
 5min,ARIMA,0.04750097302976232,152.81578428939721,10,2,2,1.0
 5min,Chronos-Bolt,0.0012327251055451564,359.7496406817841,11,2,2,1.0
 5min,Moving-Average,0.30032628599826716,444.20590309747365,12,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -17,11 +17,11 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,TimesFM-2.5,0.883401733927733,0.8936065549864372,4,2,2,1.0
 12,Chronos-Bolt,0.8576213668056174,1427.1372538860771,5,2,2,1.0
 12,TabPFN-TS,0.9139044671265871,0.9447650776752475,6,2,2,1.0
-12,Sundial,0.8615789003568101,126.43625166812511,7,2,2,1.0
+12,Sundial,0.8615789003568101,121.75194568557855,7,2,2,1.0
 12,ARIMA,0.8639722620545719,438.7361038019728,8,2,2,1.0
 12,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,2,2,1.0
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
-12,Toto-1.0,7476.553444349491,13677.94997389154,11,2,2,1.0
+12,Toto-1.0,7534.1263954366505,13038.851881781453,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
 24,Chronos-2,0.44339020476480734,0.7317235055481944,1,7,7,1.0
 24,TiRex,0.4145108564513675,0.7448889973096526,2,7,7,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -2,8 +2,8 @@ overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 Overall,Chronos-2,0.13551095513746933,0.9913608467642023,1,13,13,1.0
 Overall,TiRex,0.1224806415900693,0.9807742198495171,2,13,13,1.0
 Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.16287258118758158,1.1658420026831902,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.35149707747707265,1.125555603540842,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,3.984680664365143,1.9882399666872348,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.35149707747707265,1.1190372381053564,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,3.989385957790437,1.9736567361922646,5,13,13,1.0
 Overall,ARIMA,0.6341595777487467,1.9472211116426137,6,13,13,1.0
 Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.21501646886290463,1.817335776045877,7,13,13,1.0
 Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.1597427274112271,0.4790935805746809,8,13,13,1.0

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:28.013649+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.290619+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.087851+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.297471+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.856277+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.072503+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.181151+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.369270+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.921734+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.168982+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.208098+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.409356+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:28.004036+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.281851+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.245110+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.455925+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.907071+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.162006+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.274091+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.511668+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.975340+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.253942+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.315090+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.536254+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,23 +1,17 @@
 {
-    "status": "partial",
+    "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:41.447980+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:45.804580+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:34.701264+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:14.563659+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
     "task_count": 4,
-    "issued_tasks": 0,
-    "issued_forecasts": 0,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 0,
+    "issued_tasks": 1,
+    "issued_forecasts": 12,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
-    "failed_forecasts": [
-        {
-            "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
-            "dataset": "nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short",
-            "error": "Mean forecast length 10 < 24"
-        }
-    ],
+    "failed_forecasts": [],
     "models": {
         "Chronos-2": {
             "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -25,8 +19,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709226+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.072503+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.369270+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TiRex": {
             "model": "TiRex",
@@ -34,8 +38,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709234+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.122596+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.760321+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TimesFM-2.5": {
             "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
@@ -43,8 +57,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709235+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.142955+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.734065+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Toto-1.0": {
             "model": "Toto-1.0",
@@ -52,8 +76,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709236+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.152520+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.829301+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Moirai-2.0": {
             "model": "Moirai-2.0",
@@ -61,8 +95,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709237+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.162006+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.511668+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Chronos-Bolt": {
             "model": "Chronos-Bolt",
@@ -70,8 +114,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709239+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.168982+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.409356+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TabPFN-TS": {
             "model": "TabPFN-TS",
@@ -79,8 +133,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709240+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.216276+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.695463+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Sundial": {
             "model": "Sundial",
@@ -88,8 +152,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709240+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.239806+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.642247+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Moving-Average": {
             "model": "Moving-Average",
@@ -97,8 +171,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709241+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.253942+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.536254+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "ETS": {
             "model": "ETS",
@@ -106,8 +190,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709242+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.281851+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.455925+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "ARIMA": {
             "model": "ARIMA",
@@ -115,8 +209,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709243+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.290619+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.297471+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Seasonal-Naive": {
             "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
@@ -124,8 +228,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:30:43.709244+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.323503+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.603257+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         }
     },
     "skipped_models": [],
@@ -148,7 +262,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-28T17:31:38.676964+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d.json

@@ -253,7 +253,23 @@
   "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T14:19:31.366576Z",
   "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
   "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-  "status": "open",
-  "scored_models": [],
-  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+  "status": "resolved",
+  "scored_models": [
+    "ARIMA",
+    "Chronos-2",
+    "Chronos-Bolt",
+    "ETS",
+    "Moirai-2.0",
+    "Moving-Average",
+    "Seasonal-Naive",
+    "Sundial",
+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
+    "TimesFM-2.5",
+    "Toto-1.0"
+  ],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+  "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.861826+00:00",
+  "target_start": "2026-07-27T13:35:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a.json

@@ -0,0 +1,259 @@
+{
+  "source_task_name": "task_data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_singapore_taxi_fleet_available_taxi_count_20260728t125500z",
+  "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+  "domain": "Transportation",
+  "frequency": "5min",
+  "prediction_length": 12,
+  "context": [
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0,
+    0.0
+  ],
+  "context_timestamps": [
+    "2026-07-27T04:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:50:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:55:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:05:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:10:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:15:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:20:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:25:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:30:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:35:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:40:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:45:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:50:00"
+  ],
+  "context_start": "2026-07-27 04:55",
+  "context_end": "2026-07-27 14:50",
+  "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T17:41:53.873574Z",
+  "task_id": "future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a",
+  "issued_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00",
+  "status": "open",
+  "scored_models": [],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+}

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:28.037815+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.323503+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.359018+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.603257+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Sundial,1.7146618576285901,1.7036796647957921,
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Sundial,0.020980244564637807,0.0447908708599997,nan,nan,0.0023348485467426807,nan,nan,0.14484558869581707,nan,nan,0.15634843776673438,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Sundial,27047.212071285932,27202.68214463723,143.1162110964457,1.5089426812363538,2.4254864254221506,0.8536544624552972,36.2452386153836,164.4603662627745,1.0124792572257424,0.881076689786568,0.7401326095810744,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Sundial,0.0033671101292243734,0.00048819048480206405,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.058026805264673784,nan,nan,0.01637280160481068,Climate,1,36
-data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Sundial,3.610396239313429e-16,5.279555656660928e-16,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.900104270642385e-08,nan,nan,2.0308389622644593e-08,Transportation,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Sundial,4.2085183913691496e-16,3.9957154268920885e-16,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,2.0514673751656763e-08,nan,nan,1.883146393924609e-08,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Sundial,0.03484559946889979,0.03321369616330838,nan,nan,0.011084302742851744,nan,nan,0.18666976045653402,nan,nan,0.12063016584599584,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Sundial,1.5154800438511495,1.525080995206058,nan,nan,11.059696915841934,nan,nan,1.2310483515488535,nan,nan,0.8310837429399013,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Sundial,1.8951818473141462,1.9163619084017445,nan,nan,0.10927980596876953,nan,nan,1.376656038127951,nan,nan,0.9759154406329663,Ocean,1,72

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.950194+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.239806+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.425481+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.642247+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.923976+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.216276+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.470161+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.695463+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.885804+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.142955+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.517057+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.734065+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.866772+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.122596+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.560063+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.760321+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Toto-1.0,4.477663680103048,2.0890328378534413,
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Toto-1.0,1.2672091214948127,0.013642740360327242,nan,nan,0.0013252159503021489,nan,nan,1.1257038338278913,nan,nan,0.23265817163880909,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Toto-1.0,23019.0460822337,26241.382774419122,124.61535914738973,1.313879348219856,0.6257435399486769,0.9697879270582787,13.780075922721792,151.7202889604212,0.9340465971435247,0.767178555755332,0.6004176198191844,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Toto-1.0,0.8804106036848721,2.9461765162310406e-05,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.9383019789411468,nan,nan,0.003059903664443217,Climate,1,36
-data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Toto-1.0,8.848057954747761e-05,1.65476247778144e-08,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.009406411619075449,nan,nan,0.0002929748867776046,Transportation,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Toto-1.0,8.984850971594579e-05,2.744757222544e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.009478845378839439,nan,nan,0.00026623618215563947,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.14581109734968253,0.10758165581966579,nan,nan,0.019716449559055497,nan,nan,0.3818521930664829,nan,nan,0.23765672698505458,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Toto-1.0,2.1036677830839117,1.4562709608791526,nan,nan,10.80262388882823,nan,nan,1.4504026279222992,nan,nan,0.6883441113276988,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Toto-1.0,5.1232459483513475,1.7839306147426446,nan,nan,0.10778064946894744,nan,nan,2.263458846180188,nan,nan,0.9314055426699801,Ocean,1,72

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:18:27.900179+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.152520+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-8b03aa07f5a636178bdf",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.912152+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T16:57:17.597024+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.829301+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]