Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:12.791399+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:32.470942+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,33 +13,33 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27362,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2702,
+  "num_model_releases": 27374,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2703,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
-      "num_model_releases": 240,
-      "num_unique_releases": 20,
+      "num_model_releases": 192,
+      "num_unique_releases": 16,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 24 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2670,
-      "num_unique_releases": 223,
+      "num_model_releases": 2610,
+      "num_unique_releases": 218,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26945,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2638,
+      "num_model_releases": 26922,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2634,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 4974
+    "prequential-v1": 4986
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,7.744355647105364,1.1848855948317802,0.2364934980088413,0.820922868955617,20.48517446856794,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,34.45049265228295,0.08971024758112528,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,7.185953468314896,1.1224785650135136,0.20880469934538184,0.8223520536827835,24.2606643843213,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,31.67379312516451,-0.24362308575220806,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,7.171447646499794,1.1474716937872673,0.29617233520825004,0.9581729590738506,18.614168789482616,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,31.3694950423679,-0.021400863529985863,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,7.4169959104451,1.2047128873132293,0.6495032765120391,0.881396795611238,15.51619383312966,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,33.08865535558147,-0.132511974641097,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,7.698587912452725,1.206367933419891,0.5345201802019014,1.0261188299133042,14.809918756411511,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,34.38531542558271,0.3119324698033476,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,6.86019419067322,1.1847004942873653,0.8072142202628092,0.8443080655978813,1.005734091124572,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,29.697068495513935,0.08971024758112528,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,7.594708050399979,1.1785840759169313,0.6726260891665542,0.9337655527310648,10.240781971986658,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,35.27615973148168,0.3111111111111111,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,8.10911519689878,1.3898407221430116,1.2762787301381884,1.0693766461917376,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,36.83311607397379,0.3693100008582723,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,7.521734582233419,1.2495807790280749,1.3648234728933468,1.0572353632361882,5.063367232125646,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,35.055100732990915,0.3693100008582723,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,7.639150326446968,1.3288477196536734,0.8688498370235173,0.9551999728052443,-2.973705294672883,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,33.86091159145163,-0.021400863529985863,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,7.662268685540678,1.495231936000957,0.6137268064859847,0.867199680641729,-30.09079916814631,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,30.40423428880899,0.15555555555555553,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,7.069312293276321,1.32240477613563,0.8414150172149154,1.0770574958990977,-7.172497413561443,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,29.835022748602302,-0.132511974641097,0.0,9,20,0.7777777777777778,2026-07-27T14:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,2.139454096177604,0.9002037888426945,0.1918005255255839,0.6222844488642875,24.52128590337373,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114,5.022482201365338,0.0880936571112878,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,2.0206380292845183,0.8318961635403175,0.222405963850439,0.6021482192589936,31.042634294511632,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114,4.99826240811223,-0.1341285651109344,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,2.1167893807367593,0.8817743757473991,0.17228993496462341,0.6995164218804997,22.7206424745814,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114,5.061184374365575,0.0880936571112878,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,2.0756173247217853,0.9031246550932018,0.3651647064848833,0.6227072279638656,22.787838451767897,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111,5.021182948916839,0.19920476822239896,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,2.084123579827355,0.9079469230093749,0.639284630752954,0.7254114999717013,21.33157525456497,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111,5.168220198051082,0.5325381015557323,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,2.056847306317727,0.9131333471558752,0.8473748254204705,0.6589469892433729,18.007888732312328,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111,5.136490718586182,0.42142699044462123,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,1.9461076263507777,0.9043704890147561,0.8345125659392071,0.6630465868707291,12.558665597870554,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111,4.5615939687222005,0.5777777777777778,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,2.930758833994594,1.1961110039372993,1.3597993230453431,0.8478891819916186,0.0,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,7.8447273171029535,0.723331119955803,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,2.140100565548972,1.0258849859685104,1.3644866320067217,0.838641274986803,5.067494140014224,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,5.619085939987689,0.723331119955803,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,2.2393417596505913,1.065698774967821,0.6446150528910805,0.7418805217246313,-1.6884086018060078,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,4.319200195074036,0.42142699044462123,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,2.7438290185703584,1.2330762942317557,0.7582319811272803,0.6293562357769739,-17.2046879928878,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111,5.584924723402299,0.2888888888888889,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,2.279157001135753,1.0566516376262385,0.5189789279401644,0.8176754534625059,-5.868036682196984,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,4.938929635637465,0.0880936571112878,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T17:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.080386358724324,0.8777125191962013,0.159488326676709,0.6404380216385192,23.438801846057427,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,136.24975734908878,0.03905965977330551,0.23076923076923078,13,2591,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.249724534954323,0.8820550802034423,0.1954473206799852,0.6741584553688384,24.637870832708366,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,138.97399639241797,0.031311699015596064,0.23076923076923078,13,2578,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.129187893643811,0.8775516907660242,0.13738080804702918,0.7194527383506686,23.982066405418802,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,136.50432251400045,0.039817979346468614,0.23076923076923078,13,2572,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.598210397625042,0.9254459027908951,0.24109355977633398,0.6712343220601851,22.186011309782785,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,155.81099770662902,0.070627503348725,0.15384615384615385,13,1884,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.27492585743523,0.972970450115815,0.20259595617362455,0.8184055105362992,18.68801308534023,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,163.16559312512453,0.049228896132885586,0.15384615384615385,13,1776,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.86112468343608,0.9719388782019386,0.2766126783178733,0.7193627493001855,11.562849008179127,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,156.7562120147384,0.029435696788500387,0.15384615384615385,13,1871,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.257640907802053,1.0127061490832174,0.2247813364701911,0.7657484910331035,16.1693559876763,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,150.75622115099247,0.006492822830500216,0.3076923076923077,13,2124,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.926102355854443,1.2365979898336765,0.36862819431279736,0.9636783639563459,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.49013423180315,0.03453331224934204,0.3076923076923077,13,2418,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.662308911350745,1.1423248427142112,0.3441303735282311,0.9182223273332009,3.1306177896241483,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.73186505115262,0.07660666896091356,0.15384615384615385,13,2411,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.588032957029668,1.145528839926664,0.34791303007448243,0.9024192338301447,1.8966163669105696,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.73714153075338,0.05645314737234307,0.15384615384615385,13,2411,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.451249265333672,1.6597978391371073,0.28351484310881747,0.7015948756560871,-19.05887635629571,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,212.94000234568813,-0.0056138115947814045,0.15384615384615385,13,1898,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.354146780245838,1.4003385297167728,0.3156205994678847,1.110887298313899,-3.40995834975547,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,146.59964940812168,0.07135066149656175,0.15384615384615385,13,2411,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T14:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.025643458303328,0.8782243822520676,0.15942693720266343,0.6407227286090027,23.476201375127612,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114,135.953583250147,0.03813523012689575,0.3076923076923077,13,2587,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.19354470721597,0.8824669236440376,0.1952788110358297,0.6742739475922769,24.66986527434003,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114,138.67000033755608,0.03025107548559428,0.23076923076923078,13,2574,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.074760058365017,0.8784141430091978,0.13733364102112622,0.7203253415174525,24.00711990196169,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114,136.20559146655202,0.0375322503453961,0.23076923076923078,13,2568,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.504176210194792,0.9250996211443041,0.24079218327276355,0.6709646057294669,22.166468511533424,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111,155.36551590703922,0.07090549360127758,0.15384615384615385,13,1885,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.160294402198154,0.9723325289062734,0.20259429871898585,0.817863410153141,18.676527900969003,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111,162.6519018255877,0.04950181747963244,0.15384615384615385,13,1777,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.764241144659252,0.9714459151339677,0.2763195650541312,0.7190325552490969,11.549105400773398,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111,156.3025780618422,0.029704280145907428,0.15384615384615385,13,1872,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.1723577144871,1.0123837866701748,0.2246493977008318,0.7654864637042078,16.15701336610828,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111,150.35167871074512,0.006774495181138083,0.3076923076923077,13,2125,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.863728031052354,1.2376344300371278,0.3686786844020337,0.9644103938762018,0.0,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,141.15951315366226,0.03161323207605536,0.3076923076923077,13,2414,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.59882702625011,1.1433055392180071,0.34419359693789975,0.9190186823443734,3.118191684832237,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,141.39903037537547,0.07370074153990566,0.15384615384615385,13,2407,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.524968365305764,1.1464758139295534,0.3475355106397549,0.9021803776943675,1.9026130334236615,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,141.40422805710074,0.053722442323084846,0.15384615384615385,13,2407,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.32550403182635,1.659112831873499,0.28302880995864227,0.7011932901823431,-19.0676925114411,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111,212.3787317858232,-0.005401312168661025,0.15384615384615385,13,1899,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.294721639143667,1.4014330359016112,0.31560619293991987,1.1117367585585691,-3.3668094310215833,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,146.2723633608569,0.06959613434027251,0.15384615384615385,13,2407,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,116.79461684880233,1.7530022906756937,0.15742317818587015,1.536887981093986,17.01223979328009,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,449.1090759835067,-0.13437704023182503,0.08333333333333333,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,117.58736857184182,1.738525836033389,0.15757677877167167,1.8169063759173458,18.798981288302254,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,457.980398719262,-0.17328584253666618,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.69380147917038,1.7357457033250203,0.13877087428679763,1.609429329415007,17.32174297098779,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,449.13567979507394,-0.17247423755730149,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.7668999161347,1.7717862428563225,0.22745301267623094,1.535194363985146,14.7332147834883,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,449.2381481569912,-0.08682277972174363,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.94855897263248,1.841410210329837,0.21870786206261542,1.7139703037533085,8.779049717715639,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,449.2460110430789,-0.12073458974508865,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.77450660940876,1.792433000751766,0.25320520735098295,1.583144116454388,6.006030596491754,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,449.3507166000307,-0.09099426760230528,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,116.90180110088517,1.7954226094171923,0.2368249836993733,1.6004818162839802,14.229897661555752,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,449.3253665569653,-0.17392529693944972,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.34207231294421,1.986367216687307,0.3540122150055373,1.6208194900161939,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,449.64101833812236,-0.1171759424304923,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,117.12623043304042,1.943359008919213,0.3628022767751164,1.7516858974106218,-2.863215186730589,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,449.4223808705361,-0.04545483193976307,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,117.18264061267466,2.0124722978551097,0.296193443201697,1.738052653511299,-7.03959979711398,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,449.34189915491174,0.03502919099394685,0.08333333333333333,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,157.8487162980343,2.361588578498039,0.21872910478488014,1.4775840162747336,-25.24127353703079,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,576.3786862651649,-0.10893012380963421,0.0,12,223,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,118.3763080776048,2.28439819681289,0.4001649400227755,2.016886796733593,-12.65071651598113,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,450.543974537005,0.028160199063854606,0.0,12,222,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,116.78187953944479,1.7514302851674464,0.1573230110367015,1.5372414249358908,16.784962764632713,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114,449.1196251709422,-0.14763272938440003,0.08333333333333333,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,117.57454469427216,1.7367369459968902,0.15747765178832,1.8180111441907618,18.57136593385822,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114,457.99088510837186,-0.18617262614408397,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.67932496354632,1.7337432920960267,0.13867899436692424,1.607006546826967,17.101931358064032,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114,449.14674956864474,-0.18568794321904358,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.74361708376064,1.7686626357236157,0.22732742765919048,1.5350164202909804,14.53370368666986,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111,449.25202513817845,-0.09976226086880602,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.93380542929611,1.8394049047825385,0.21860355812607635,1.7114062243245636,8.559427331248752,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111,449.25717282405947,-0.13325246780734926,0.08333333333333333,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.75364035447704,1.7893522254500915,0.2530845790412645,1.580980984695062,5.818902587929583,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111,449.36382744941164,-0.10385469918738009,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,116.8749896762851,1.792375619481069,0.23669120875845362,1.597205508528339,14.0038968732663,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111,449.3402643667877,-0.1876375861655949,0.0,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.30874271405425,1.9825869513343932,0.3538445582437585,1.6146643727662193,0.0,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,449.6639479683252,-0.12577534770803203,0.08333333333333333,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,117.08721277193574,1.9384821624259254,0.3626301993600454,1.7463038867583531,-3.011766466011478,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,449.4413599745183,-0.059105778659838265,0.08333333333333333,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,117.17673766437584,2.0123117204707284,0.2960981702271188,1.7339862628219338,-7.3284808199585365,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,449.35012649279946,0.02061408116121428,0.08333333333333333,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,157.82344618012198,2.357200648961751,0.21860109772141056,1.4738381534929046,-25.186093166447105,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111,576.4002265424064,-0.10911106801506851,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,118.38299841259341,2.2867630872146623,0.40013709419540844,2.018686434896264,-13.009049948769439,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,450.5483139260161,0.014851809119114294,0.0,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T17:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.078065068575906,0.8766535483733674,0.15953323969616653,0.640094227938368,23.541724568850476,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625,136.2483868631424,0.03695096501847429,0.23076923076923078,13,2647,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.244917843113551,0.8796426751776919,0.19521721691024888,0.6731180429691108,24.755960493385693,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625,138.97119542160365,0.03641710404854416,0.23076923076923078,13,2633,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.126603333827005,0.8764518303670588,0.13730404384642136,0.7184980187573748,23.96900556515701,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625,136.5046275795586,0.0380487899153008,0.23076923076923078,13,2628,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.598210397625042,0.9254459027908951,0.24109355977633398,0.6712343220601851,22.186011309782785,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125,155.81099770662902,0.070627503348725,0.15384615384615385,13,1884,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.27492585743523,0.972970450115815,0.20259595617362455,0.8184055105362992,18.68801308534023,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125,163.16559312512453,0.049228896132885586,0.15384615384615385,13,1776,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.86112468343608,0.9719388782019386,0.2766126783178733,0.7193627493001855,11.562849008179127,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125,156.7562120147384,0.029435696788500387,0.15384615384615385,13,1871,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.257640907802053,1.0127061490832174,0.2247813364701911,0.7657484910331035,16.1693559876763,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125,150.75622115099247,0.006492822830500216,0.3076923076923077,13,2124,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.919493334610651,1.234637884109997,0.3686635342991805,0.9625335066834771,0.0,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.4867267368033,0.041288385765355755,0.3076923076923077,13,2482,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.662333735847872,1.1426834584369954,0.34443107822900676,0.9188370328414958,3.0355950244297385,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.73186696374253,0.06739383887679619,0.15384615384615385,13,2473,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.596662660361245,1.147894412760133,0.34837499183858667,0.904437822829355,1.7633390883759028,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625,141.7466417805074,0.04311180078008363,0.15384615384615385,13,2473,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.451249265333672,1.6597978391371073,0.28351484310881747,0.7015948756560871,-19.05887635629571,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125,212.94000234568813,-0.0056138115947814045,0.15384615384615385,13,1898,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.388041690382966,1.4080466236212024,0.3166483457983693,1.1172099706824348,-3.746510829114072,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625,146.62116694540384,0.04996320858111057,0.15384615384615385,13,2473,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:42:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.021244743854355,0.8764658365652509,0.15952940786169198,0.6400475772463421,23.532003509656096,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114,135.95063057417545,0.03722645325310184,0.23076923076923078,13,2648,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.187070937440952,0.879455615485456,0.1951021247564327,0.6729351501607312,24.744996669811776,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114,138.66564626245471,0.03666981655180845,0.23076923076923078,13,2634,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.069247182975953,0.8762564051463465,0.13727444653220328,0.7184025496535962,23.958874994646166,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114,136.204798494331,0.03829575681189378,0.23076923076923078,13,2629,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.504176210194792,0.9250996211443041,0.24079218327276355,0.6709646057294669,22.166468511533424,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111,155.36551590703922,0.07090549360127758,0.15384615384615385,13,1885,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.160294402198154,0.9723325289062734,0.20259429871898585,0.817863410153141,18.676527900969003,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111,162.6519018255877,0.04950181747963244,0.15384615384615385,13,1777,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.764241144659252,0.9714459151339677,0.2763195650541312,0.7190325552490969,11.549105400773398,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111,156.3025780618422,0.029704280145907428,0.15384615384615385,13,1872,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.1723577144871,1.0123837866701748,0.2246493977008318,0.7654864637042078,16.15701336610828,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111,150.35167871074512,0.006774495181138083,0.3076923076923077,13,2125,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.853236312801716,1.2342172408613055,0.36863561754034274,0.9620657966707383,0.0,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,141.15519752994564,0.04142834437617028,0.3076923076923077,13,2483,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.595463467250308,1.1422818626838116,0.34440971610459586,0.918537904299278,3.0343860169652426,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,141.39784501250674,0.06754072716438798,0.15384615384615385,13,2474,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.530341630877862,1.1475966214661022,0.34794811818438504,0.9033388851456597,1.7569785261732813,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,141.41256176043484,0.04337668385903705,0.15384615384615385,13,2474,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.32550403182635,1.659112831873499,0.28302880995864227,0.7011932901823431,-19.0676925114411,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111,212.3787317858232,-0.005401312168661025,0.15384615384615385,13,1899,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.32173598225469,1.4077665363172471,0.31663473381128826,1.117031030774007,-3.753895614923526,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114,146.28706217073972,0.050304698470339144,0.15384615384615385,13,2474,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111
+12,Official,ETS,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111
+12,Official,ETS,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111
+12,Official,ETS,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692157726687226,11,2642,13,32.95625
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673832549433456,11,2633,13,32.95625
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090510443100313,11,2628,13,32.95625
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783319814676345,11,1884,13,27.6125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592741309610769,11,1773,13,29.6125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234316753368471,11,1871,13,27.6125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120471246822111,11,2122,13,29.6125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38600504457064466,11,2473,13,32.95625
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800595028555546,11,2473,13,32.95625
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37498959598707077,11,2473,13,32.95625
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37397454997418156,11,1898,13,27.6125
-12,Official,ETS,0.36623632224267944,11,2473,13,32.95625
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669076679827795,11,2643,13,33.111111111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672625837491925,11,2634,13,33.111111111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.608974085684581,11,2629,13,33.111111111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782011036189435,11,1885,13,27.76736111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.559309185845125,11,1774,13,29.76736111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235024501099317,11,1872,13,27.76736111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118640519587174,11,2123,13,29.76736111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38622655388092064,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38016096616971673,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37507580686542796,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739775136819168,11,1899,13,27.76736111111111
+12,Official,ETS,0.3663690186077316,11,2474,13,33.111111111111114

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -1090,6 +1090,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.558438
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.057038+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8242822801451335,0.9078999284861374,0.3284537571226974,0.7748032951947993,-69.54585856280534,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:08.827886+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.481353+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:51.821519+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,6.098276508907677,2.4694688718239957,0.00013935451766122244,0.018082460109094207,-10.189504884935642,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.230391+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.542345+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.3788108586230754,1.1742277711854185,0.15825542384159677,0.8412799516610273,-25.76774653219951,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.795701+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -3619,6 +3620,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.565470
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.088344+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.717074315482764,0.8468024063987797,0.2618062893192758,0.4895696502299471,-65.77195916423946,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:08.873629+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.485324+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:51.850031+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.006894428519889,2.2376090875128054,0.023232890941478585,2.336635245986499,-0.365471934497722,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.272787+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.549807+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0938691118403776,1.7589397692474797,0.31105874264354916,1.4872194409906683,-58.34778387472701,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.801162+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
@@ -5966,6 +5968,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.571066
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.113136+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.4600380400679794,0.6782610412429564,0.2501878561607181,0.4961735477803299,-51.30412600410874,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:08.913652+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.490708+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:51.875117+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.769109037922699,2.1838289855029167,0.022673924763997395,2.247535295384893,2.0670492371114215,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.298716+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.561559+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7621298527108094,1.3274523918810834,0.189757382872851,1.0544668956799617,-36.81401704726068,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.808251+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
@@ -8081,6 +8084,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.577174
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.145975+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4738211615271637,1.2140103630229702,0.43689372440261237,1.0135147338688986,-81.74228840658292,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:08.976707+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.497511+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:51.897893+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.733472298988048,2.1756544530297197,0.023316875382897118,2.2234021520525395,2.4418816122856666,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.348864+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.568985+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.733005742576831,2.175547228302992,0.41944217165245123,2.0455700774679153,-70.65638761584968,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.820108+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -10313,6 +10317,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.582572
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.173607+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.03512191017106068,0.18740840475032244,0.06916298495028425,0.13003532307169954,61.65333079959909,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:08.997584+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.502562+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:51.923006+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.950878807566948,2.4394423148676725,0.025278435224368248,2.249991532518113,-8.97739188280841,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.383712+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.576041+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.4370885773607913,1.85393866601913,0.33334782849986255,1.5656251171856068,-61.71079509386046,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.824797+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
@@ -12438,6 +12443,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.588369
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.223879+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.068800182539253,0.26229788893403816,0.08080728519004617,0.19909043655072367,36.54855061026493,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:09.027489+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.507341+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:51.960173+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.895391546734725,2.212553173764356,0.02369929453262785,2.2602337332734797,0.7605910933910339,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.434820+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.582759+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7706765193864472,0.8778818368017687,0.1431834549628136,0.6671921311585364,2.722816744530968,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.829194+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -14913,6 +14919,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.594165
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.260483+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.14805911130182112,0.38478449982012153,0.12940337993941825,0.3091854548202186,0.0,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:09.053556+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.512472+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:51.985104+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.970430107526883,2.2294461436704145,0.02314814814814815,1.572502680002197,0.0,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.469955+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.590222+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8138194407042124,0.9021194159889324,0.14273721466770029,0.7256312933070443,0.0,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.833557+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -17253,6 +17260,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.599995
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.312458+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.08326036599519912,0.2885487237802294,0.11426463023477526,0.18547546949831847,28.01266286081855,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:09.089603+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.7654082275258104e-16,1.9404659820583845e-08,,1.962012494529488e-08,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.516771+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.304136065745901e-16,1.817728270602045e-08,,1.980997290651487e-08,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:52.006941+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.161069762774662,2.6760175191456916,0.026174097885320217,2.442948058157761,-18.057451087400683,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.520976+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.1956175464352033e-16,1.481761636173377e-08,,1.926177808858003e-08,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.596894+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.355963763270304,1.5349149042439791,0.2869779166398349,1.1182648281645102,-48.65141315129795,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.838588+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.3218478367109057e-16,2.078905441984052e-08,,2.052832591404586e-08,0.0,False
@@ -19250,6 +19258,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.608209
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.339621+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.09496693084793652,0.30816705023077423,0.10946793946106546,0.2675842410866735,21.846292678859538,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:09.104288+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.527565+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:52.049135+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.982670265841826,2.232189567631259,0.02317663122106482,2.232189407480009,-0.12297834700525537,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.560934+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.604037+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7062996437122615,1.30625405021851,0.1828413386831317,1.0303278850843922,-35.41420754784293,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.847844+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -21345,6 +21354,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.618699
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.415792+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.024663925578971332,0.15704752649746295,0.05631226020901521,0.1491873795791421,71.44107002241569,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:09.150571+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.536859+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:52.149847+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.9765961267875625,2.2308285740476705,0.023162493293668016,2.3369045829656883,-0.06198856940186382,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.623712+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.618141+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.3320152791832838,1.5270937362137544,0.25289324308868777,1.29838798059075,-48.260508693647026,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.856847+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
@@ -23978,6 +23988,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.613272
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.382115+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2737694676056873,0.5232298420442849,0.1733701845957749,0.44003055635223115,-29.801289573466732,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:09.121464+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.532391+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:52.070451+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.988442317590863,2.233482105948213,0.023172011198820893,2.3119977010009602,-0.1808659584648426,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.582963+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.610881+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.1393165044786806,1.4626402512165049,0.2947829723819275,1.175817209357903,-44.884390301658726,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.852154+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -26317,6 +26328,7 @@ future-b66ea9cd1cd7f3b53c8e,2026-07-14T23:25:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:01:37.624790
 future-b73f08a09505ab32f36e,2026-07-24T22:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.451361+00:00,2026-07-24T17:08:22.411168+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.4844553914858941,0.6960282979059789,0.21890570299744158,0.36706488896993333,-53.18396316629192,True
 future-ba7b94cbce31e20f4807,2026-07-26T05:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T12:47:09.181560+00:00,2026-07-27T12:21:59.451271+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.05226841655435754,0.2286228697098292,,0.0002672965951205696,-100.0,False
 future-bb5b20404dd8fde0ee6b,2026-07-14T08:35:00+00:00,2026-07-15T11:39:45.541293+00:00,2026-07-15T11:02:58.476146+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.05807959290580156,0.24099708069974948,,0.0002582398849443524,-100.0,False
+future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:52.172386+00:00,2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,6.9821115403600915,2.6423685474134926,0.027392714700581116,1.8807474375379358,-16.830574551387095,True
 future-bd5805ed25d9fb82172a,2026-07-26T17:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:11:36.665812+00:00,2026-07-28T02:30:24.867751+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.021716834000032662,0.1473663258686755,,0.0002672785713406887,-100.0,False
 future-bd61f6b2335cdf74027f,2026-07-17T21:50:00+00:00,2026-07-19T02:52:43.625323+00:00,2026-07-18T11:59:37.872139+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.121756613064715,2.263129826824947,0.33017094643350997,1.5481847475506325,-72.57824907533754,True
 future-bf700d86180d82ef1ef9,2026-07-17T14:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T15:13:51.861653+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.229578+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.379128903612238e-05,0.004877631498598718,,0.0002746607429664302,-100.00000000000001,False

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.224989505012516
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.676857050690692,0.9482953842520914,0.45516115075163893,0.7414801600628518,3.093313252763524,3.8125426268499294,-0.29146968139773893,3.2361181388683506e-07,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.7032288939326719,1.2115706707260652,0.0946102123839448,0.945074865415258,-43.30653634279677,1.4433810484488727,-0.0180334907685702,0.754571057214523,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0916503227619407,1.0146347255455106,0.5465022594907215,0.6345709141123799,25.747175384249985,0.5374288690247903,0.3487335359675785,8.50228697321562e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,178.5329531657196,3.243726236303938,0.9392613937613596,2.87532043771665,6.347956841880356,1743.3472164024768,0.23354144459672102,9.649503990076394e-07,199,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.6707797824356,3.2398549494815376,0.9345657835651412,2.8610342478286124,6.265269533246274,1739.0041761415337,0.23698492462311554,6.242009260199784e-07,200,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6143995287769621,1.071300987091728,0.010071875487467954,0.7740100183681309,28.269168769570957,1.8996766414901718,0.07963854998066172,0.06675174172264038,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.77066292070
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.021420096704319,0.7601464052316582,0.34268467491723437,0.5152385850105019,22.20062475012013,2.3428438544951105,-0.3470265106281347,8.456780624602227e-11,159,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3960585555804672,0.5790431846700701,0.04271482667689994,0.39893577500800953,14.66222017945875,0.3184370314998671,-0.11755341432760787,0.029949082098449084,155,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0413996920396353,0.9904559715658838,0.5363381411707965,0.6362508618104663,28.063020671756387,0.5273720647193769,0.3727987421383648,2.6193163766608677e-12,160,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,164.55836624664127,2.7647038447040813,0.0323373296530283,2.4676303891952864,24.40378689278413,1677.641283812501,0.22251684416431214,1.2064913753533745e-06,215,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,163.8197020252611,2.7622635911985665,0.03229517947380816,2.4670239301989487,24.277413123257187,1673.7704520559307,0.22609819121447025,7.640045531686394e-07,216,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.362298354965361,0.9909761575747218,0.009923004027311918,0.7225046602720693,22.098942754948517,1.5901846812739464,0.22059578839239857,1.3058414977773687e-05,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.76884396
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.523819771491744,0.6185176791541969,0.3808061056536098,0.4137400558279903,12.795230785816507,0.581730871421917,-0.4636422136422136,4.269587867818866e-13,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3987001203481794,0.5530554896629497,0.041572755643710595,0.4061900266783742,23.340723376709242,0.432410599970157,-0.22227682227682227,0.0005438741542448725,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2249135435449419,1.0835341487156682,0.5724419425603384,0.6945384373936527,28.051940779366433,0.5154818339422389,0.17383059418457647,0.00634405866011995,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,210.06532770602374,3.2284177265330296,0.5482260066535088,2.9472164896416326,28.867083678282654,1929.4955875326136,0.25864580937044707,1.0331299896207732e-06,162,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,208.80584170192498,3.2220092066494086,0.5450017607523462,2.942923966977481,28.688416782008176,1923.598346144963,0.2621373930167386,6.808328279545382e-07,163,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9075679929227745,1.145442111216266,0.010256259035586813,0.8906745144318265,25.146768370353712,2.4464040828135194,0.09780176385415296,0.033282650029523714,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.972878454121812,0
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,3.846856252097679,1.0773483913908197,0.5160379131744395,0.8505321852031522,-0.250627635613973,27.20681351812713,-0.24295991778006165,2.0550353213759956e-05,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,17.337510213225286,3.4623709049940796,0.2783688872326554,2.8613860891495864,-79.59825386409274,29.455892218923594,-0.0695577501073422,0.22789018295126917,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0627208446524012,0.9951782002606023,0.5327837275609973,0.6363642991741855,27.90969100864625,0.5963471046096972,0.388855116514691,7.858078893788261e-12,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.12831343250727,2.9038814433132507,0.05326324696120758,2.6886459139645207,21.642324716863712,1743.4661275739932,0.15405309375158624,0.0012320924668400954,199,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,176.26633922683968,2.9002403083618327,0.05311351510331603,2.68631969515496,21.546322501340818,1739.1227655033595,0.15849246231155778,0.0008593015758172801,200,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3295117699164924,0.9463672571957353,0.008979569418290392,0.6916022759067921,31.367009216121886,1.6457491264731656,0.30895702405890946,9.19671354596505e-10,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.6702253387
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.47547175421648535,0.5911284984685183,0.34657001596175063,0.39862287201840146,15.510384264489803,0.5581746740873943,-0.35018963337547404,3.8282782387080044e-08,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4596497251098418,0.6019139260088127,0.045463166934756945,0.4453651428233059,13.463937883699375,0.465756317152148,-0.16666666666666663,0.00918741981446774,112,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1304647518983042,1.0370727626193432,0.5107380276441154,0.6731193099460583,32.26528489237877,0.5262881896601348,0.21098398169336388,0.0008290829887706363,115,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,207.65421084545122,3.182216446805773,0.5722767892047553,2.8285330619087237,29.131064703444824,1917.7522374232765,0.2994164297471196,1.2642447617536701e-08,164,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,206.43176640885795,3.1777147854000884,0.5689616476654804,2.825026749609387,28.877008326203136,1911.9609740286091,0.30303030303030304,7.585555312314019e-09,165,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.5860092119298526,1.3524317650973139,0.012695978639958229,1.1287234384232716,13.44189853303409,2.9101870458041974,-0.008907024702733534,0.8462843005375524,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.891444
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.4911726518655655,0.9796162863931354,0.4619319383127711,0.7616332272792946,-1.779155228455438,2.520696320441719,-0.3498458376156218,8.655173937908163e-10,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.8941136749312533,0.9040589310184801,0.06571722361625384,0.6420580649951123,-27.923074001144748,0.5279755324332177,0.12430227565478745,0.0311751555356117,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0900319304850437,1.0108731630728574,0.5722630682656018,0.6482504138732484,26.358443456810843,0.5749664615888548,0.36231003039513676,1.840340051391804e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,178.75808990040267,3.2567021320417577,0.07069596823658941,3.0379679430394644,3.9040105010806454,1743.3299095704801,0.2864321608040201,1.877501921249236e-09,199,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.88877640863433,3.251481387250371,0.07046098486806962,3.0340792719906347,3.888293404042196,1738.9876242044147,0.28834170854271357,1.3314027701935891e-09,200,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.089598510340393,1.5130203684629175,0.01368788348877177,1.0266377342367037,0.0,3.1864761823370666,-0.013119213724715898,0.775230539748514,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.907553
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7532017652395215,1.044974394336836,0.46526155408279957,0.8630157021995427,0.0,2.6554133117162233,-0.3775075987841945,3.105581970162213e-11,141,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.5223443333775349,0.6751719888395882,0.04946972808987797,0.48277532689845176,0.0,0.3807782887448099,-0.12345287210409395,0.031705958862002934,138,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.9160184974416845,1.3322272910097313,0.6519855330675701,1.0464845716678126,0.0,1.0955635614361836,0.5279192887823394,1.148744327006388e-20,142,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,178.10002809426996,3.3285869525007867,0.08487210193831743,2.794628943289031,0.0,1738.9663818142246,0.28749866616270525,1.5908315384703476e-09,200,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.2386868107538,3.3231185902677995,0.08456501759110266,2.7885487131234252,0.0,1734.6565021250751,0.28931812810329405,1.1390056199643451e-09,201,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.3336485273273295,1.369431003685908,0.014044892580721374,1.0786778106569637,3.2340679926689107,2.076739478282935,-0.15919790758500432,0.00125367582101177,186,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ Sundial,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.8814562785987
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.054992186384303,0.7580821340697509,0.37340606759500905,0.5277248689224906,17.225297718466496,2.450987061549282,-0.3882447021191523,1.9142930214824517e-10,123,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.48976451311655905,0.6413920305241586,0.04798019709437776,0.47110462082697313,7.637687132070183,0.4022893607708384,-0.09159663865546218,0.1379603855637,120,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.251693975777147,1.0962671878187695,0.5879786018429195,0.739115145342716,22.471632285721125,0.5135175973238089,0.19561290322580646,0.001215626874239255,125,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,202.28901606740055,3.413582720187506,0.2816075553648292,3.042466586671211,10.18246706023244,1858.4349324749453,0.28919540229885055,1.3337453993964198e-08,175,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,201.1803345543061,3.4093920088179503,0.28015622890187736,3.039060231395567,10.022012979848158,1853.17588075173,0.2928571428571428,7.909974367990398e-09,176,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2930236112584452,0.9657022022428051,0.009435472005290437,0.8282398664622558,23.80957906614156,1.5209091532305468,0.3034135726914185,3.4484971719621384e-09,172,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,3.06693070269
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5157516384542906,0.6007336108772311,0.33706225175290916,0.493891344563285,11.758926767559108,0.7070839145137922,-0.3809251856082239,1.1844447764328179e-08,103,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.43903676142419146,0.6062637279898775,0.04572457479996947,0.4987213246926012,7.9735894941649725,0.4209513728032518,-0.24441855950300911,0.0002724013305386247,102,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1554855471617163,1.0527346385754788,0.5496779303164246,0.8550534807803529,29.491072472688508,0.4946942567215266,0.10791635548917103,0.1044931719451935,104,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,228.51400797813096,3.476135926237111,0.02591143137492529,3.289285154638137,22.273131176888715,2011.412350424257,0.2775258479956466,5.102646530747737e-07,149,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,227.02379906004896,3.4678429505130723,0.025893199373899552,3.282237849657082,22.12382378006275,2004.7343635302782,0.2810738255033557,3.324482780914578e-07,150,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6044818304930752,1.0733341728449766,0.00990931419231941,0.775637081946561,29.88973440242601,1.785704738010647,0.053788604049214615,0.21659803303164127,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.468994721394927
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9493183057139502,0.7305680707486996,0.3259131651348741,0.5045782357558168,23.6695016972218,2.170650391332058,-0.29691327780499754,3.411248991710397e-08,157,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39816467283157264,0.5735765169584173,0.04251426653623243,0.4106670828210269,16.673151210431,0.3609433303296342,-0.08434994771697457,0.12304104274105974,152,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0632440639767924,1.0024932104134163,0.5446481267295167,0.645186056943566,27.146297533300423,0.5174487039145088,0.37369991131177943,3.19761308814089e-12,158,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,166.6586974817218,2.7536604138469345,0.2953554370689686,2.8480899823868455,27.87383389693819,1713.2916294857032,0.26365670659470847,9.552298081632148e-09,214,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.906687707978,2.7512286378478676,0.29408942337699057,2.84571237587791,27.731304190477275,1709.3194904167672,0.26694196913714413,5.753294244933187e-09,215,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6453848622382907,1.0815005714223864,0.010579608774461076,0.8863769556681769,27.825438502908504,1.8968683448062447,0.06908388757777299,0.1132848151615818,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.473458750
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9991738454172477,0.7474061493814469,0.31779536069647274,0.5743196281090878,19.61594355012348,2.3505259430960734,-0.31927212572373864,3.3157283895297562e-09,156,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4533461016113975,0.6099502663777426,0.05418315012554729,0.4667789516012221,11.587002735481406,0.42408142945545413,-0.05594283722551412,0.30641238164790063,152,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0475523130284314,0.9923960873153186,0.4710410591864389,0.7841892243786447,28.42300878663538,0.5372390869456428,0.36354728074473297,1.4042489419322144e-11,157,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.29888394627883,2.7796955978389195,0.09316965932463478,2.5788338460624156,25.63182770315449,1681.5278310330984,0.26234039752533894,1.1308041784821248e-08,214,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,164.55325398521518,2.7771550699696603,0.09284408886823566,2.577592747713293,25.500130286513574,1677.6300529251394,0.26555096718104765,6.8963956353511745e-09,215,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.28199037431467,1.2978356815478813,0.009816543535913609,0.7495388373219307,-0.37220432904438483,2.8635395035234312,0.19739292364990688,8.348137639666252e-05,180,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -153,5 +153,5 @@ Toto-1.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.456804836314
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.8244936372319593,1.1336393860700649,0.3894818079764779,0.4191680516131009,-31.633505933662313,3.099877679411469,-0.4342493401645708,7.410658045370871e-12,114,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.46167255666176726,0.5948082701912413,0.03949701191422227,0.38016552633276796,13.652316905731757,0.6366899576072879,-0.17824967824967822,0.005335583988800219,112,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.3940537916097533,1.441288244428483,0.5371208405925065,0.7176013128266404,4.039408682085815,2.243356562315245,0.15355142941349836,0.01410361848672397,117,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,279.9750134847872,4.129519316707423,0.9202356115722672,2.7525895010366654,0.3609279821210083,2449.0827565641757,0.17897042716319825,0.0006200289331063861,166,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T11:10:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,278.340325449192,4.120614222280513,0.9148892469203409,2.7473688898779907,0.24631796523095392,2441.7862392859315,0.18173291970276317,0.0004899346707052851,167,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.493430638855567,1.1822810283926517,0.2168787045319125,0.7022572165896811,34.8197182017094,0.749996768684687,0.1515151515151515,0.5452047007776174,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:10.766000+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:30.289323+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ Hazards,Toto-1.0,0.5447067827362504,0.6198857623270299,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.5159030493533491,0.6552873663892604,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.5234081583087049,0.7154825875538315,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ARIMA,0.9751306749691749,0.38486182748098285,1,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.0813692464527007,0.9924021595681446,2,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.1276077437591416,1.010443151113958,4,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TiRex,1.127237170726061,1.0311739352853535,5,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.0790332247777732,1.0470160067587573,6,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.093508711981219,1.082295632689394,7,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.9761363565890064,1.1132157631177908,8,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ETS,1.0814189920897397,1.17781549355183,9,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Sundial,0.9824313277425463,1.1871040987080808,10,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.13126434578556,1.255403146176928,11,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.130074924317557,1.3225726844593262,12,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ARIMA,1.2269112284011117,0.011499160121666012,1,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.404729850196838,1.1960217692826496,3,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ETS,0.9523264982279901,1.413925826854192,4,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.0024625953992206,1.4195138970935746,5,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,0.9594962477594612,1.429272791688821,6,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.1972563095808026,1.430834784024005,7,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.9849030045350553,1.4373480961382665,8,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.0036238735228775,1.4702663025017735,9,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.0073362506270407,1.4859340309570945,10,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TiRex,1.0012405403812725,1.4861053101432065,11,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Sundial,1.440734424960613,1.5535414274488537,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,TimesFM-2.5,0.03684048004661691,0.20206259110870364,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Chronos-2,0.0369650586967402,0.21429367126674892,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TiRex,0.06099399090461052,0.2882552025089681,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,18 +11,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Moirai-2.0,0.9931170314987676,0.9506171711084153,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,TabPFN-TS,1.0965296750513482,1.1700878991909816,12,1,1,1.0
-15min,ARIMA,0.9751306749691749,0.38486182748098285,1,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moirai-2.0,1.0813692464527007,0.9924021595681446,2,1,1,1.0
-15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-2,1.1276077437591416,1.010443151113958,4,1,1,1.0
-15min,TiRex,1.127237170726061,1.0311739352853535,5,1,1,1.0
-15min,Toto-1.0,1.0790332247777732,1.0470160067587573,6,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.093508711981219,1.082295632689394,7,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moving-Average,0.9761363565890064,1.1132157631177908,8,1,1,1.0
-15min,ETS,1.0814189920897397,1.17781549355183,9,1,1,1.0
-15min,Sundial,0.9824313277425463,1.1871040987080808,10,1,1,1.0
-15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.13126434578556,1.255403146176928,11,1,1,1.0
-15min,TabPFN-TS,1.130074924317557,1.3225726844593262,12,1,1,1.0
+15min,ARIMA,1.2269112284011117,0.011499160121666012,1,1,1,1.0
+15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
+15min,Toto-1.0,1.404729850196838,1.1960217692826496,3,1,1,1.0
+15min,ETS,0.9523264982279901,1.413925826854192,4,1,1,1.0
+15min,TabPFN-TS,1.0024625953992206,1.4195138970935746,5,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-Bolt,0.9594962477594612,1.429272791688821,6,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moirai-2.0,1.1972563095808026,1.430834784024005,7,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moving-Average,0.9849030045350553,1.4373480961382665,8,1,1,1.0
+15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.0036238735228775,1.4702663025017735,9,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-2,1.0073362506270407,1.4859340309570945,10,1,1,1.0
+15min,TiRex,1.0012405403812725,1.4861053101432065,11,1,1,1.0
+15min,Sundial,1.440734424960613,1.5535414274488537,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,7534.1263954366505,13038.851881781453,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,0.44339020476480734,0.7317235055481944,1,7,7,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.4145108564513675,0.7448889973096526,2,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.5681562833990131,0.7490469070437524,3,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,0.4799992195385256,0.775419565634457,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,1.520374525220479,0.7287828451205441,5,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.7255009526147621,0.7651853252476193,6,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,1.7038724348964605,1.1269151847404395,7,7,7,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,8,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.594705587085834,0.803937793274539,9,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,1.4444563689905403,1.2919521417914248,10,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.5331643601238124,0.8304626910315389,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,3.6175474085585955,2.013352278105239,12,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,0.5576433571152533,0.779402439602899,1,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,1.5787596269837267,0.7427681112992338,2,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,0.4363032412745184,0.7731678960521806,3,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.40755110061546296,0.7848117755249148,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.76628887403599,0.7951649138785134,5,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,0.48703109631598324,0.8170281322644872,6,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.5846121902452651,0.8121028434361633,7,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,1.7607071307004754,0.6824733543335233,8,7,7,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.5241233676911973,0.8494189656362727,10,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,1.4463025059517132,1.339988542356155,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,3.5524449486150416,2.066595093420495,12,7,7,1.0
 36,ETS,0.0003160064870084056,1.000000000000001e-12,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0553883777131202e-07,0.0008433365473335877,2,1,1,1.0
 36,Toto-1.0,0.05469192573721511,0.0020086340389211823,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,Chronos-2,0.13551095513746933,0.9913608467642023,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TiRex,0.1224806415900693,0.9807742198495171,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.16287258118758158,1.1658420026831902,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.35149707747707265,1.1190372381053564,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,3.989385957790437,1.9736567361922646,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,0.6341595777487467,1.9472211116426137,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.21501646886290463,1.817335776045877,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.1597427274112271,0.4790935805746809,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,0.7923273256040497,0.37679264853892164,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.18690240444673736,0.47855028852547243,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,0.9256421422364086,2.735750287222228,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,0.1343403384720884,1.0212108671061753,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.12136897746563971,1.0087373287357833,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.1641530620565157,1.1991207340384495,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,4.071160348597943,1.993961093005788,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.36200337604088695,1.1424357164118917,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.21286492814165073,1.8566289422565119,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,0.6454634541730412,1.486398876025313,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.1582783902689042,0.484951446122198,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,0.7846172559779437,0.3821256743173788,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.18518759165386173,0.48116127498304256,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,0.9262789806686684,2.7900602219910033,11,13,13,1.0
 Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.33228586127163234,0.221044549
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ARIMA,0.023975762112696596,0.024774368500219062,nan,nan,0.25101952998068583,nan,nan,0.15484108664271443,nan,nan,0.09684881581675826,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ARIMA,1.0296741533950675,0.9984829788420667,nan,nan,0.10361296682289167,nan,nan,1.0147286107107987,nan,nan,0.8082927970302988,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.7232125153501406,0.7923220063009001,nan,nan,0.6961902869046782,nan,nan,0.8504190233938448,nan,nan,0.5428553014372848,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,28.326291344118346,5.01974320386842,nan,nan,0.015923371523307712,nan,nan,5.322244953411891,nan,nan,1.667256262482891,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,6.098276508907677,0.00018013726714472805,nan,nan,0.00013935451766122244,nan,nan,2.4694688718239957,nan,nan,0.018082460109094207,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ARIMA,0.41946174479404164,0.3887520067886783,nan,nan,0.12900699451842257,nan,nan,0.6476586637991046,nan,nan,0.4079750467727446,Web,1,7

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.290619+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.644679+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.297471+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.821519+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.004568087077043557,0.004568087077043557,nan,nan,0.1019209742528152,nan,nan,0.0675876251768292,nan,nan,0.07371692886298616,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.03022152236565098,0.03022152236565098,nan,nan,0.01838861164214259,nan,nan,0.1738433845898399,nan,nan,0.17612253472655737,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.8102304159422345,0.8102304159422345,nan,nan,0.6696798883371339,nan,nan,0.9001279997546097,nan,nan,0.5943882512463644,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,32.755553990356304,32.755553990356304,nan,nan,0.04067665894107042,nan,nan,5.72324680494877,nan,nan,4.377331164808588,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,5.006894428519889,5.006894428519889,nan,nan,0.023232890941478585,nan,nan,2.2376090875128054,nan,nan,2.336635245986499,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,0.5379146607901764,0.5379146607901764,nan,nan,0.17100514688638668,nan,nan,0.7334266567218404,nan,nan,0.48842848142456025,Web,1,7

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.072503+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.479540+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.369270+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.850031+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.3455539255669464,0.345
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.02624241179707966,0.02624241179707966,nan,nan,0.22084257001627458,nan,nan,0.16199509806497128,nan,nan,0.11193019022038148,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.022761806256580336,0.022761806256580336,nan,nan,0.015331804674808422,nan,nan,0.15087016357312116,nan,nan,0.1583952154287786,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.7552138434186063,0.7552138434186063,nan,nan,0.7634659208176218,nan,nan,0.8690304041968878,nan,nan,0.5678434968597075,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,31.76502099463825,31.76502099463825,nan,nan,0.040056489279906675,nan,nan,5.636046574917408,nan,nan,4.688602616866279,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,4.769109037922699,4.769109037922699,nan,nan,0.022673924763997395,nan,nan,2.1838289855029167,nan,nan,2.247535295384893,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.4719500001866968,0.4719500001866968,nan,nan,0.16251649824562261,nan,nan,0.6869861717579887,nan,nan,0.5467640302159011,Web,1,7

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.168982+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.555705+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.409356+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.875117+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,7.485363061070757,7.0695469094028
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ETS,0.0746625808527996,0.07381970536044431,nan,nan,0.46006090604102673,nan,nan,0.27324454404946424,nan,nan,0.18347574961588958,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ETS,1.2657424086068179,1.2371938424364712,nan,nan,0.11494288800331992,nan,nan,1.1250521803928997,nan,nan,0.8879355258156113,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,0.7622428758180403,0.8151351844680578,nan,nan,0.6592816996279506,nan,nan,0.8730652185364163,nan,nan,0.560999674348257,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,31.41383018841563,31.200885726547938,nan,nan,0.03969637380180025,nan,nan,5.604804206073182,nan,nan,5.102403297637251,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,4.733472298988048,5.0434394696321965,nan,nan,0.023316875382897118,nan,nan,2.1756544530297197,nan,nan,2.2234021520525395,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ETS,0.5074210195682924,0.45386653897851287,nan,nan,0.15015696096508702,nan,nan,0.7123349068860043,nan,nan,0.46371001820340635,Web,1,7

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.281851+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.631501+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.455925+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.897893+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.14372890600255536,0.1437
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.006875451035150713,0.006875451035150713,nan,nan,0.13224156932716488,nan,nan,0.0829183395585724,nan,nan,0.08971395358858661,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.03266933398710628,0.03266933398710628,nan,nan,0.01878769092839144,nan,nan,0.18074660159213585,nan,nan,0.18228414270623136,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.791351220951885,0.791351220951885,nan,nan,0.6814923929319413,nan,nan,0.8895792381524453,nan,nan,0.5917435173406599,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,31.41238514167058,31.41238514167058,nan,nan,0.039828988329857186,nan,nan,5.604675293152189,nan,nan,4.299175956917401,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,5.950878807566948,5.950878807566948,nan,nan,0.025278435224368248,nan,nan,2.4394423148676725,nan,nan,2.249991532518113,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moirai-2.0,0.48766161312112155,0.48766161312112155,nan,nan,0.162052999946506,nan,nan,0.6983277261580851,nan,nan,0.4355676130387057,Web,1,7

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.162006+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.542285+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.511668+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.923006+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.493630847038398,1.70
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.017460728356688507,0.016887188643017515,nan,nan,0.19520389795995652,nan,nan,0.13213904932565734,nan,nan,0.07998465835693735,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.47028811563883255,0.47128490378475324,nan,nan,0.06992728321655306,nan,nan,0.6857755577729733,nan,nan,0.5282496082538112,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.7282052411227319,0.7756597725288321,nan,nan,0.6963780498305199,nan,nan,0.853349424985294,nan,nan,0.5455312335932018,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,28.35550510109884,28.147977941176563,nan,nan,0.037707390648567186,nan,nan,5.324988741875314,nan,nan,4.822551419819671,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,4.895391546734725,5.209934959646932,nan,nan,0.02369929453262785,nan,nan,2.212553173764356,nan,nan,2.2602337332734797,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moving-Average,0.5225479238151219,0.4638223057159223,nan,nan,0.15401827526707126,nan,nan,0.7228747635760443,nan,nan,0.46633423707628346,Web,1,7

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.253942+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.613551+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.536254+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.960173+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -2,14 +2,14 @@
     "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:03.431987+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:12.802940+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:50.567712+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:32.482484+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 2,
-    "issued_tasks": 0,
-    "issued_forecasts": 0,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 0,
+    "task_count": 4,
+    "issued_tasks": 1,
+    "issued_forecasts": 12,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
     "failed_forecasts": [],
     "models": {
@@ -19,8 +19,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.573995+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.479540+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.850031+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TiRex": {
             "model": "TiRex",
@@ -28,8 +38,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574020+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.503887+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.149847+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TimesFM-2.5": {
             "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
@@ -37,8 +57,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574024+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.512511+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.070451+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Toto-1.0": {
             "model": "Toto-1.0",
@@ -46,8 +76,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574028+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.530267+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.172386+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Moirai-2.0": {
             "model": "Moirai-2.0",
@@ -55,8 +95,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574031+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.542285+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.923006+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Chronos-Bolt": {
             "model": "Chronos-Bolt",
@@ -64,8 +114,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574034+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.555705+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.875117+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TabPFN-TS": {
             "model": "TabPFN-TS",
@@ -73,8 +133,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574036+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.570641+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.049135+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Sundial": {
             "model": "Sundial",
@@ -82,8 +152,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574039+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.606148+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.006941+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Moving-Average": {
             "model": "Moving-Average",
@@ -91,8 +171,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574041+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.613551+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.960173+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "ETS": {
             "model": "ETS",
@@ -100,8 +190,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574047+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.631501+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.897893+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "ARIMA": {
             "model": "ARIMA",
@@ -109,8 +209,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574049+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.644679+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.821519+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Seasonal-Naive": {
             "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
@@ -118,8 +228,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:22:08.574052+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.672232+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.985104+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         }
     },
     "skipped_models": [],
@@ -142,7 +262,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-28T18:23:08.667069+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0.json

@@ -0,0 +1,105 @@
+{
+  "source_task_name": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260728t155000z",
+  "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+  "domain": "Hydrology",
+  "frequency": "15min",
+  "prediction_length": 24,
+  "context": [
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+    2210.0,
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+    2160.0,
+    2160.0,
+    2160.0,
+    2160.0
+  ],
+  "context_timestamps": [
+    "2026-07-28T07:55:00",
+    "2026-07-28T08:10:00",
+    "2026-07-28T08:25:00",
+    "2026-07-28T08:40:00",
+    "2026-07-28T08:55:00",
+    "2026-07-28T09:10:00",
+    "2026-07-28T09:25:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T09:55:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T10:40:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T13:40:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T15:25:00",
+    "2026-07-28T15:40:00",
+    "2026-07-28T15:55:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T16:25:00",
+    "2026-07-28T16:40:00",
+    "2026-07-28T16:55:00",
+    "2026-07-28T17:10:00",
+    "2026-07-28T17:25:00",
+    "2026-07-28T17:40:00",
+    "2026-07-28T17:55:00",
+    "2026-07-28T18:10:00",
+    "2026-07-28T18:25:00"
+  ],
+  "context_start": "2026-07-28 07:55",
+  "context_end": "2026-07-28 18:25",
+  "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:08.376654Z",
+  "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+  "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+  "status": "open",
+  "scored_models": [],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+}

results/prequential/tasks/future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7.json

@@ -99,7 +99,23 @@
   "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:03.222142Z",
   "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
   "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
-  "status": "open",
-  "scored_models": [],
-  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+  "status": "resolved",
+  "scored_models": [
+    "ARIMA",
+    "Chronos-2",
+    "Chronos-Bolt",
+    "ETS",
+    "Moirai-2.0",
+    "Moving-Average",
+    "Seasonal-Naive",
+    "Sundial",
+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
+    "TimesFM-2.5",
+    "Toto-1.0"
+  ],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+  "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.209000+00:00",
+  "target_start": "2026-07-28T11:40:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00"
 }

results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4220830567678604,1.4
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.021964487461018273,0.021964487461018273,nan,nan,0.15292908855273898,nan,nan,0.1482042086481294,nan,nan,0.09176957303480657,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.05446273032547061,0.05446273032547061,nan,nan,0.019720447064865965,nan,nan,0.23337251407453838,nan,nan,0.14723236289593666,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4996367379063997,1.4996367379063997,nan,nan,0.7920828592703594,nan,nan,1.2245965612831027,nan,nan,0.9727963862627943,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,29.048713235294105,29.048713235294105,nan,nan,0.037707390648567124,nan,nan,5.389685819720302,nan,nan,4.33209048919063,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,4.970430107526883,4.970430107526883,nan,nan,0.02314814814814815,nan,nan,2.2294461436704145,nan,nan,1.572502680002197,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.1956686926031785,1.1956686926031785,nan,nan,0.24653455434324129,nan,nan,1.0934663655564256,nan,nan,0.8509378537691182,Web,1,7

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.323503+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.672232+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.603257+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:51.985104+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Sundial,0.8427959919452709,0.72880537
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Sundial,0.07240789929541203,0.034247198292841646,nan,nan,0.3187960858696557,nan,nan,0.26908715929120813,nan,nan,0.1350895598036612,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Sundial,0.04147564649132133,0.042493546432574324,nan,nan,0.02001445950916341,nan,nan,0.20365570576667213,nan,nan,0.15088829003761098,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.7807086606349478,0.7757135753093496,nan,nan,0.8357156827887059,nan,nan,0.8835771956286264,nan,nan,0.5737344692976855,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,28.538365912962462,29.595841447544853,nan,nan,0.038663295095682504,nan,nan,5.3421312145025475,nan,nan,5.142642375692492,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,7.161069762774662,6.370524072840986,nan,nan,0.026174097885320217,nan,nan,2.6760175191456916,nan,nan,2.442948058157761,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Sundial,0.3632078483298184,0.3563015156678547,nan,nan,0.1391300563020866,nan,nan,0.602667278296921,nan,nan,0.44954022702632723,Web,1,7

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.239806+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.606148+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.642247+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.006941+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -108,5 +108,5 @@ us_births/D/short,TabPFN-TS,112759.78666666668,112759.78666666668,215.285703125,
 us_births/M/short,TabPFN-TS,59338602.666666664,59338602.666666664,6332.360677083333,0.7153333155562595,0.019422224412361785,0.019690368324518204,4.7156280861706295,7703.155370798817,0.0239259480622513,0.01966826908953116,0.015286944232309424,Healthcare,1
 us_births/W/short,TabPFN-TS,1737954.0,1737954.0,983.3291015625,0.8942316441355983,0.013318025640078954,0.013351580926350184,6.532085345899004,1318.3148334142345,0.0178959945969944,0.01334859613394065,0.010610700543554966,Healthcare,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.7849221031196626,0.7849221031196626,nan,nan,0.6780399486512959,nan,nan,0.8859582964901128,nan,nan,0.6960188756063207,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,32.8272224108974,32.8272224108974,nan,nan,0.04072114187847615,nan,nan,5.729504551957124,nan,nan,5.729504547609567,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,4.982670265841826,4.982670265841826,nan,nan,0.02317663122106482,nan,nan,2.232189567631259,nan,nan,2.232189407480009,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TabPFN-TS,1.0318417053002116,1.0318417053002116,nan,nan,0.21346065016808555,nan,nan,1.0157960943517215,nan,nan,0.8543722734226411,Web,1,7

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.216276+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.570641+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.695463+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.049135+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.161
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.006262990376178233,0.004554783835561518,nan,nan,0.09627439894456198,nan,nan,0.07913905721057228,nan,nan,0.10022450213355703,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.06269121952817955,0.10589695801141052,nan,nan,0.033732113336197196,nan,nan,0.25038214698372474,nan,nan,0.1887512228581642,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.7736671660082207,0.9192549938039831,nan,nan,0.6858045973238216,nan,nan,0.8795835184951004,nan,nan,0.6374611819871363,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,32.86177357403732,31.531639228654843,nan,nan,0.03990939271216299,nan,nan,5.732518955401484,nan,nan,5.438520029653064,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,4.988442317590863,4.980749238333547,nan,nan,0.023172011198820893,nan,nan,2.233482105948213,nan,nan,2.3119977010009602,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.38719216672060525,0.341005570724447,nan,nan,0.12667853599052806,nan,nan,0.6222476731339421,nan,nan,0.5343002043100503,Web,1,7

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.142955+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.512511+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.734065+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.070451+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.1330410943866506,0.1330410943
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TiRex,0.0027620856067215142,0.0027620856067215142,nan,nan,0.0785130454542927,nan,nan,0.05255554782058231,nan,nan,0.08149323675215601,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TiRex,0.06152528541441301,0.06152528541441301,nan,nan,0.025145317063173283,nan,nan,0.2480429104296533,nan,nan,0.21547322137758032,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.7237618079022049,0.7237618079022049,nan,nan,0.6982327102959812,nan,nan,0.850741916154485,nan,nan,0.5667071365175703,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,32.74478932058561,32.74478932058561,nan,nan,0.04066998005632542,nan,nan,5.722306293845656,nan,nan,4.4671387977509545,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,4.9765961267875625,4.9765961267875625,nan,nan,0.023162493293668016,nan,nan,2.2308285740476705,nan,nan,2.3369045829656883,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TiRex,0.5500816371095917,0.5500816371095917,nan,nan,0.16152377391214015,nan,nan,0.7416748863953745,nan,nan,0.5062535723576331,Web,1,7

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.122596+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.503887+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.760321+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.149847+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.2061994614582545,0.2026127
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.150750383270116,0.004939613297587732,nan,nan,0.09535892261593037,nan,nan,0.3882658667332425,nan,nan,0.07054306522652543,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.07401720791630814,0.04597913287011668,nan,nan,0.02153606086089947,nan,nan,0.27206103711540197,nan,nan,0.18626719621804055,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.8168623027780804,0.8057370308350262,nan,nan,0.7073522246638566,nan,nan,0.9038043498335689,nan,nan,0.6030226294874921,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,31.344526717924186,30.97936355161343,nan,nan,0.039551618987438725,nan,nan,5.598618286499285,nan,nan,4.535768084909965,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,6.9821115403600915,6.9814512865627085,nan,nan,0.027392714700581116,nan,nan,2.6423685474134926,nan,nan,1.8807474375379358,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Toto-1.0,1.4142901830281045,0.7431608109672617,nan,nan,0.20031694349088386,nan,nan,1.1892393295834547,nan,nan,0.5963496809202035,Web,1,7

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T17:46:10.152520+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T18:54:27.530267+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-11a4cfc38ecb272f5f2d",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:22:27.338912+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T17:42:39.829301+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T14:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-bba4969a3fe5e88048b7",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T11:33:46.521170+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:52.172386+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]