Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:56.597009+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:14.796193+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:42.683822+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:12.526650+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
     "frequency",
     "prediction_length"
   ],
-  "num_configs": 13,
+  "num_configs": 12,
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_rows_missing_prediction_length": 0
 }

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,6 @@ Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.7247978632328378,0.8249918557759415,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Sundial,1.0169587977425802,0.9183235752037384,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.7939141618582515,0.9372016432334698,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.1811008163011596,2,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ARIMA,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,3,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ETS,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,4,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moving-Average,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,5,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.0,1.1811023622047234,6,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.1811023622047234,7,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Sundial,1.0,1.1811023622047234,8,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.1811023622047234,9,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.1811023622047234,10,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.7839556631798548,1.3622767704574028,11,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TiRex,0.9568451217122376,1.4505235406670343,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,Moving-Average,0.6885555599162482,0.7882638185220112,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Sundial,1.0100384161323002,0.9753941694223817,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TimesFM-2.5,0.6685946883150999,0.7997804319007484,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,18 +11,6 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0019529557526288,0.9863010922397192,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,Chronos-2,1.4062990275163183,1.0749886941936895,12,1,1,1.0
-15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.1811008163011596,2,1,1,1.0
-15min,ARIMA,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,3,1,1,1.0
-15min,ETS,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,4,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moving-Average,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,5,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-2,1.0,1.1811023622047234,6,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.1811023622047234,7,1,1,1.0
-15min,Sundial,1.0,1.1811023622047234,8,1,1,1.0
-15min,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.1811023622047234,9,1,1,1.0
-15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.1811023622047234,10,1,1,1.0
-15min,Toto-1.0,1.7839556631798548,1.3622767704574028,11,1,1,1.0
-15min,TiRex,0.9568451217122376,1.4505235406670343,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,384873.0188877535,13327.175525195342,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.5552979038192593,0.7990291671062807,1,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.5411696387233879,0.753262799562506,2,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,0.646772721096046,0.7759612519697378,3,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.7606410771099004,0.7759108715416382,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,1.086973992115207,0.9879234439289957,5,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,2.4026463060317997,0.7934624094526244,6,7,7,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.7291521736846612,0.8745414822798746,8,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.8341215929670431,0.936206061555175,9,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,2.685967783733017,1.722254335979107,10,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,2.160327931644515,1.4793737311349737,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,7.626747289429526,2.906911936576978,12,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.5071542842230036,0.723439594864657,1,6,6,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,0.48852747529436374,0.6988591950632111,2,6,6,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,0.6014649305639767,0.7234893089563668,3,6,6,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.7267355482332052,0.7234345067080555,4,6,6,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,2.5248803785195295,0.7251088253778802,5,6,6,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,1.1021880000629,0.9589501069018305,6,6,6,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.6917585526136719,0.8318197486696985,7,6,6,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.8092839448074433,0.9006418024016122,8,6,6,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,6,6,1.0
+24,ARIMA,3.1667778537892444,1.8339982286146068,10,6,6,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,2.456252223684873,1.535947237458775,11,6,6,1.0
+24,ETS,10.700299056579944,3.377711856811074,12,6,6,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,Moving-Average,3735435890.1223984,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,ETS,3735439850.1733017,454621.7794134911,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,1.8009625980837958,7.141509977586904,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,2.830777584704455,12.19724488295978,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,2.4185318862600336,7.6715198903030135,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,4.598007319995878,10.938846202143933,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,8.437513750216919,13.077656698045622,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,7.265578725970994,2.930251717327456,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,98.81328332684205,18.27146951818796,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,1.6063164081521566,4.653090350063608,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,2.4412844028600023,14.835614615809819,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,15.489332161425226,12.025992799326682,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,3.65947910842757,5.186430370928792,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,1.8984242849621829,8.156030091938922,1,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,2.603241559941208,8.965975996216969,2,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,5.221361908428266,13.16826368742788,3,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,3.08719854126262,14.816978168553948,4,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,138.0706182555135,22.68467117172149,5,12,12,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,10.078572742335263,15.979019699554899,6,12,12,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,1.6710278454815868,5.216301045932894,7,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,8.571221741121528,3.1607468359607087,8,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,2.6297829651856603,18.318519743429334,9,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10,12,12,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,4.07728320414509,5.867011906432972,11,12,12,1.0
+Overall,ETS,19.462654994055878,14.591739117114606,12,12,12,1.0

results/dataset_properties.csv

@@ -10,5 +10,4 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature,Weather,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5,Air Quality,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m,Weather,1h,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count,Hazards,1h,1
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060,Hydrology,15min,1
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews,Web,1D,1

results/online_status.json

@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@
     "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:35.484991+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:56.607029+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:07.495879+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:14.808573+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 2,
+    "task_count": 3,
     "issued_tasks": 0,
     "issued_forecasts": 0,
     "resolved_forecasts": 0,
@@ -19,7 +19,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842521+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703653+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TiRex": {
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842526+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703660+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TimesFM-2.5": {
@@ -37,7 +37,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842527+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703661+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Toto-1.0": {
@@ -46,7 +46,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842528+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703662+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moirai-2.0": {
@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842533+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703663+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Chronos-Bolt": {
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842534+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703663+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TabPFN-TS": {
@@ -73,7 +73,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842535+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703664+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Sundial": {
@@ -82,7 +82,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842536+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703666+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moving-Average": {
@@ -91,7 +91,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842536+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703667+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ETS": {
@@ -100,7 +100,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842537+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703667+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ARIMA": {
@@ -109,7 +109,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842538+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703668+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Seasonal-Naive": {
@@ -118,7 +118,7 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:11:39.842539+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T06:24:10.703669+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": []
         }
     },
@@ -142,7 +142,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-27T06:12:57.077321+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }