Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:04.833036+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:36.148110+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:02.475016+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:33.977330+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
     "frequency",
     "prediction_length"
   ],
-  "num_configs": 13,
+  "num_configs": 12,
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_rows_missing_prediction_length": 0
 }

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -47,18 +47,18 @@ Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,0.9803612181482216,1.233648004890988,9,1,1,1.0
 Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.1451138792621596,1.306230026308965,10,1,1,1.0
 Hydrology,Chronos-2,2.457496578202893,1.3091303454283423,11,1,1,1.0
 Hydrology,ARIMA,1.5227614333785564,3.981677710914025,12,1,1,1.0
-Ocean,ETS,0.16194413594074056,0.35188872315322434,1,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,ARIMA,0.2768250461210601,0.47402243071596434,2,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,Toto-1.0,0.6148470990252313,0.4309787108206567,3,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,TimesFM-2.5,0.5191871013101739,0.6096842818177143,4,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,Sundial,0.7405382807046288,0.693015568502858,5,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,TiRex,0.2116669319250284,0.4623016665785226,6,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,Moving-Average,0.844860103938594,0.8932698408775676,7,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,Chronos-Bolt,0.5844577558971957,0.7743175755224928,8,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,Chronos-2,0.840985372461271,0.7547770791012901,9,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,Moirai-2.0,1.0479438500475715,0.843986196653969,10,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,2,2,1.0
-Ocean,TabPFN-TS,1.1479041325249393,1.089812654581023,12,2,2,1.0
+Ocean,ETS,0.031050189676036656,0.14314006512872457,1,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,TiRex,0.03752870175584104,0.1890409737883149,2,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,Toto-1.0,0.1764663682104904,0.19336747018849068,3,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,ARIMA,0.07678327550120892,0.25582709334217635,4,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,TimesFM-2.5,0.2903315834748498,0.40636815846095625,5,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,Chronos-Bolt,0.2294921504912728,0.4201749753531201,6,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,Chronos-2,0.669972758870577,0.5000607028464571,7,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,Sundial,0.5785787197639195,0.5641623333193234,8,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,Moirai-2.0,1.1482811386021479,0.6762267218142929,9,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,TabPFN-TS,0.753906838734417,0.7856627814848356,10,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,Moving-Average,0.9973907228666833,0.9916980332443733,11,1,1,1.0
+Ocean,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,4 @@
 frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-10min,Moving-Average,0.715655939906452,0.8046108612426879,1,1,1,1.0
-10min,Sundial,0.9478346272616678,0.8512985533110731,2,1,1,1.0
-10min,ETS,0.8446294028868107,0.8650664883451831,3,1,1,1.0
-10min,ARIMA,0.998031220467021,0.878316920566861,4,1,1,1.0
-10min,TimesFM-2.5,0.9284392794634112,0.9147245318220383,5,1,1,1.0
-10min,Toto-1.0,2.142260641579121,0.9605682331137553,6,1,1,1.0
-10min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,1,1,1.0
-10min,Moirai-2.0,0.9563740759422352,1.0533637272294145,8,1,1,1.0
-10min,TiRex,1.1938300014223484,1.1305635314839364,9,1,1,1.0
-10min,Chronos-2,1.0556494832507781,1.1392385682255801,10,1,1,1.0
-10min,Chronos-Bolt,1.4884642794846972,1.4269476835433796,11,1,1,1.0
-10min,TabPFN-TS,1.7478073281306592,1.5117066126516778,12,1,1,1.0
 15min,TabPFN-TS,0.999629604599128,0.707716762271388,1,1,1,1.0
 15min,Moving-Average,0.8837777777779868,0.8318514644351539,2,1,1,1.0
 15min,Sundial,0.7169457146463295,0.8879194379351649,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -59,15 +59,3 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 60,TabPFN-TS,0.753906838734417,0.7856627814848356,10,1,1,1.0
 60,Moving-Average,0.9973907228666833,0.9916980332443733,11,1,1,1.0
 60,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
-72,Moving-Average,0.715655939906452,0.8046108612426879,1,1,1,1.0
-72,Sundial,0.9478346272616678,0.8512985533110731,2,1,1,1.0
-72,ETS,0.8446294028868107,0.8650664883451831,3,1,1,1.0
-72,ARIMA,0.998031220467021,0.878316920566861,4,1,1,1.0
-72,TimesFM-2.5,0.9284392794634112,0.9147245318220383,5,1,1,1.0
-72,Toto-1.0,2.142260641579121,0.9605682331137553,6,1,1,1.0
-72,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,1,1,1.0
-72,Moirai-2.0,0.9563740759422352,1.0533637272294145,8,1,1,1.0
-72,TiRex,1.1938300014223484,1.1305635314839364,9,1,1,1.0
-72,Chronos-2,1.0556494832507781,1.1392385682255801,10,1,1,1.0
-72,Chronos-Bolt,1.4884642794846972,1.4269476835433796,11,1,1,1.0
-72,TabPFN-TS,1.7478073281306592,1.5117066126516778,12,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,0.4491321998178905,1.228439098135869,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.6992075596910947,1.6051698824466591,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,0.6096551175406293,1.3897986986708342,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.6160512281034968,2.434610972252994,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.5916980165678678,2.0961487638786265,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.5733167087309148,0.7940524003553794,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,1.02078044690864,2.741933719366878,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,4.912449256840033,3.1575972400433967,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.745848895203579,0.8514543376239411,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,1.099393068332244,2.715492810835007,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,1.3324052133081612,2.9771307633081996,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.4139934794332643,1.2369681537228583,1,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,0.5823909227630778,1.4130146647961979,2,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.6817035838726988,1.6922879477563222,3,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.5723873519534353,2.5454507696302926,4,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.5684899699004231,2.2198608221772145,5,12,12,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.6947533112441893,0.8116818778678158,6,12,12,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.5507417794606603,0.7847459191625626,7,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,5.2642142695079475,3.4867898781685396,8,12,12,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,1.0226994612016658,3.014792510116591,9,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10,12,12,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,1.139437182143812,3.0051804477088764,11,12,12,1.0
+Overall,ETS,1.3839928099765386,3.3000988257288935,12,12,12,1.0

results/dataset_properties.csv

@@ -5,7 +5,6 @@ data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total,Climate,5min,1
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count,Transportation,5min,1
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_t2m,Weather,1h,1
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level,Ocean,6min,1
-noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height,Ocean,10min,1
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature,Weather,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5,Air Quality,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m,Weather,1h,1

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,17 +1,23 @@
 {
-    "status": "ok",
+    "status": "partial",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:09.373824+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:04.849758+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:27.154814+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:36.160049+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 2,
-    "issued_tasks": 1,
-    "issued_forecasts": 12,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
+    "task_count": 4,
+    "issued_tasks": 0,
+    "issued_forecasts": 0,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 0,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
-    "failed_forecasts": [],
+    "failed_forecasts": [
+        {
+            "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
+            "dataset": "nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short",
+            "error": "Mean forecast length 10 < 24"
+        }
+    ],
     "models": {
         "Chronos-2": {
             "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -19,18 +25,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.903187+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.041460+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891131+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TiRex": {
             "model": "TiRex",
@@ -38,18 +34,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.916728+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.373058+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891139+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TimesFM-2.5": {
             "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
@@ -57,18 +43,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.920874+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.337094+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891140+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Toto-1.0": {
             "model": "Toto-1.0",
@@ -76,18 +52,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.926427+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.404902+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891141+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moirai-2.0": {
             "model": "Moirai-2.0",
@@ -95,18 +61,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.932027+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.175044+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891142+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Chronos-Bolt": {
             "model": "Chronos-Bolt",
@@ -114,18 +70,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.943821+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.088963+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891143+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TabPFN-TS": {
             "model": "TabPFN-TS",
@@ -133,18 +79,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.952936+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.283160+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891144+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Sundial": {
             "model": "Sundial",
@@ -152,18 +88,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.959805+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.261038+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891145+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moving-Average": {
             "model": "Moving-Average",
@@ -171,18 +97,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.971762+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.200349+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891146+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ETS": {
             "model": "ETS",
@@ -190,18 +106,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.981012+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.141945+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891146+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ARIMA": {
             "model": "ARIMA",
@@ -209,18 +115,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.992685+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.000331+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891147+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Seasonal-Naive": {
             "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
@@ -228,18 +124,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:00.996408+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-38fbf697b6a3396bc559",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T10:41:05.473988+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T11:04:14.230904+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T06:40:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T11:19:31.891148+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         }
     },
     "skipped_models": [],
@@ -262,7 +148,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-28T11:07:45.924562+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }