Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T02:33:00.345781+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:52.410327+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:58.190151+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:50.347078+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
     "frequency",
     "prediction_length"
   ],
-  "num_configs": 12,
+  "num_configs": 13,
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_rows_missing_prediction_length": 0
 }

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,6 +35,18 @@ Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.7247978632328378,0.8249918557759415,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Sundial,1.0169587977425802,0.9183235752037384,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.7939141618582515,0.9372016432334698,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.7652594641159696,1.057507146740559,2,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.282185062935625,1.1593661273750293,3,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TiRex,1.7601434797977764,1.2181115345220714,4,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.669749502744596,1.230016084276731,5,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.502772356186331,1.345630170545535,6,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Sundial,1.3149358626625043,1.3578813294245928,7,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.3933078304239097,1.3656846750610254,8,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.822857718065862,1.5697987766413375,9,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.7823948120487276,1.6723544394535688,10,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ETS,2.3101830377998778,1.8643116894683234,11,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ARIMA,1.7969075767873166,2.166778271475671,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,Sundial,0.48228798448389376,0.5634499277519537,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Moving-Average,0.5615559138192499,0.7295325981764587,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TiRex,0.6069904501867864,0.6895789871096983,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,6 +11,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Moirai-2.0,0.770942001251268,0.8004585833278894,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,TabPFN-TS,1.3847975089964943,1.244085275075577,12,1,1,1.0
+15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moving-Average,0.7652594641159696,1.057507146740559,2,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moirai-2.0,1.282185062935625,1.1593661273750293,3,1,1,1.0
+15min,TiRex,1.7601434797977764,1.2181115345220714,4,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-2,1.669749502744596,1.230016084276731,5,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.502772356186331,1.345630170545535,6,1,1,1.0
+15min,Sundial,1.3149358626625043,1.3578813294245928,7,1,1,1.0
+15min,Toto-1.0,1.3933078304239097,1.3656846750610254,8,1,1,1.0
+15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.822857718065862,1.5697987766413375,9,1,1,1.0
+15min,TabPFN-TS,1.7823948120487276,1.6723544394535688,10,1,1,1.0
+15min,ETS,2.3101830377998778,1.8643116894683234,11,1,1,1.0
+15min,ARIMA,1.7969075767873166,2.166778271475671,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,Moirai-2.0,1.0,410051.5180343537,10,1,1,1.0
 12,Chronos-Bolt,1.094103907762285,3214861.8499168884,11,1,1,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,637193131.9497002,273899848.7647005,12,1,1,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,4.125877284285071,0.7871136200110362,1,7,7,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.8727771177144572,0.9285269624837972,2,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.6368150023579308,0.8522490975299426,3,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.9658862807548193,0.8693746592880739,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,1.0885810823135906,0.9677115281591154,5,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,1.1254866775928838,0.9382391008130023,6,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,1.1395983105755276,0.9394670556008913,7,7,7,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,8,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,1.8449702152725047,1.4078855081509185,9,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.8892759502679931,1.0001808153551834,10,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,4.054521916997039,2.265531863166366,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,13.809372130706334,4.0383466056378925,12,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.9527609339183264,0.9605745727706534,1,8,8,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,3.602323017176498,0.8432406870994948,2,8,8,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,1.111084333625263,0.9898177814254066,3,8,8,1.0
+24,Sundial,1.0038603917412252,0.9192080776377297,4,8,8,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,1.1823722520634963,0.9705394339322146,5,8,8,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.7242476822679981,0.9271751264471223,6,8,8,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,8,8,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,1.1796942750676118,0.9826233393849123,8,8,8,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,1.6527865810129951,1.3584130189398083,9,8,8,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.9727496323823376,1.0581547926205321,10,8,8,1.0
+24,ARIMA,3.66237586472674,2.2529456335212767,11,8,8,1.0
+24,ETS,11.043531905703498,3.6664262832258556,12,8,8,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,Sundial,0.7857841590622391,4.521502623172054,1,12,12,1.0
-Overall,TiRex,0.796694750504519,3.157161194463493,2,12,12,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.7425507618539294,0.9113666099839229,3,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,1.0811675340716,3.2627807768709802,4,12,12,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.8193342729133527,0.9484051332378993,5,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,6,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,1.211812885806776,8.75766640019367,7,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,168.00834214565361,21.210341860329564,8,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.022670876841387,7.800791939748938,9,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.0947337355582873,8.37848571728904,10,12,12,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,2.2979976576742747,12.588414522405168,11,12,12,1.0
-Overall,ETS,4.983916779579971,18.332880378060114,12,12,12,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.8467850759145127,2.9341386037216024,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.8175293807783756,4.121891527885902,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,1.1179255120985898,3.026894947528056,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.7942885160596794,0.9549326555251644,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,1.1697139091940043,7.443289823238669,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.8713163512332048,0.985890128781775,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.0406169006686057,6.736785009938807,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,116.20694791599352,17.175805443016646,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.1217393107418068,7.278973915414856,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,2.2549263577188103,10.99486145392376,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,4.697689307471637,15.376880140327657,12,13,13,1.0

results/dataset_eval_intervals.json

@@ -1,7 +1,6 @@
 {
     "binance_btcusdt_1h_close": 300,
     "coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd": 300,
-    "data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd": 2592000,
     "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total": 900,
     "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count": 300,
     "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M": 3600,
@@ -11,6 +10,5 @@
     "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5": 3600,
     "open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m": 3600,
     "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count": 3600,
-    "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060": 900,
     "wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews": 86400
 }

results/dataset_properties.csv

@@ -10,4 +10,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature,Weather,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5,Air Quality,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m,Weather,1h,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count,Hazards,1h,1
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060,Hydrology,15min,1
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews,Web,1D,1

results/online_status.json

@@ -2,14 +2,14 @@
     "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:22.659654+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T02:33:00.358218+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:42.662307+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:52.421209+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 3,
-    "issued_tasks": 1,
-    "issued_forecasts": 12,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
+    "task_count": 4,
+    "issued_tasks": 0,
+    "issued_forecasts": 0,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 0,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
     "failed_forecasts": [],
     "models": {
@@ -19,18 +19,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.765105+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.311067+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734752+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TiRex": {
             "model": "TiRex",
@@ -38,18 +28,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.777885+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.504223+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734775+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TimesFM-2.5": {
             "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
@@ -57,18 +37,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.785257+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.486916+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734779+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Toto-1.0": {
             "model": "Toto-1.0",
@@ -76,18 +46,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.793103+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.529949+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734782+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moirai-2.0": {
             "model": "Moirai-2.0",
@@ -95,18 +55,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.796740+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.369988+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734785+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Chronos-Bolt": {
             "model": "Chronos-Bolt",
@@ -114,18 +64,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.802212+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.328057+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734788+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TabPFN-TS": {
             "model": "TabPFN-TS",
@@ -133,18 +73,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.837889+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.473971+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734791+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Sundial": {
             "model": "Sundial",
@@ -152,18 +82,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.858524+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.466980+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734794+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moving-Average": {
             "model": "Moving-Average",
@@ -171,18 +91,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.874084+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.424202+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734796+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ETS": {
             "model": "ETS",
@@ -190,18 +100,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.890466+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.354048+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734797+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ARIMA": {
             "model": "ARIMA",
@@ -209,18 +109,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.897287+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.293201+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734800+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Seasonal-Naive": {
             "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
@@ -228,18 +118,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:32:55.901233+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-139a65bc2c084866b2d3",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T01:37:12.611331+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T02:30:24.443935+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T16:35:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T02:41:47.734804+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         }
     },
     "skipped_models": [],
@@ -262,7 +142,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-28T02:33:43.550632+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }