Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:45.185967+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:53.918333+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,33 +13,33 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27794,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2738,
+  "num_model_releases": 27806,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2739,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
-      "num_model_releases": 204,
-      "num_unique_releases": 17,
+      "num_model_releases": 180,
+      "num_unique_releases": 15,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 24 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2574,
-      "num_unique_releases": 215,
+      "num_model_releases": 2454,
+      "num_unique_releases": 205,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26792,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2581,
+      "num_model_releases": 26579,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2551,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 5406
+    "prequential-v1": 5418
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,145.4143718260793,2.7301696618460083,0.22007507549224392,2.5032620084252146,27.31578909437562,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778,676.4484138802908,-0.21652036645005712,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,145.48824475476846,2.7580528202335977,0.2770292271669034,2.544069125701887,28.186004264928588,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778,676.78276977215,-0.2867932033426877,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,145.4778191928048,2.681568123607255,0.16385625077064103,2.4860412799496734,24.937154773977333,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778,677.025951902859,-0.39790431445379887,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,146.2304153964399,2.826004011942389,0.3943869707056821,2.566389796802113,11.979512474008347,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778,679.8042530322288,-0.24595492912420727,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,145.82835342138407,2.993005472000673,0.3145606186569065,2.7490576255905177,-5.591643593550676,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778,676.4746201939921,-0.4681771513464296,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,146.90590426238919,2.916145905573893,0.4097816466894295,2.6165841484981875,10.89237181162641,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778,682.339549696704,-0.4681771513464296,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,146.85573825254514,2.810096922254487,0.27456310427341524,2.508178884390582,7.949473014927148,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778,682.5911602807015,-0.3111111111111111,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,148.5398543351491,3.245148515824956,0.5312896023948896,2.8705791328898096,0.0,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,685.1206080496889,-0.2222222222222223,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,148.61948739309452,3.196807809495154,0.5191174608975063,2.905022070093739,-17.585515877729925,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,687.3058477090332,-0.5384499882390602,0.14285714285714285,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,145.91194309085304,3.1798358607603485,0.4879684933512091,3.2099135285175713,-17.87567699679561,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,674.7117401272243,-0.24595492912420727,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,147.75529369904902,3.317143800033668,0.35063434620689815,2.627759428289578,-10.752154240171842,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778,681.8565506967593,-0.04444444444444448,0.0,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,149.91997777539285,3.8449158856959653,0.6194615428892553,3.465807556344569,-38.11185746106992,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,679.0691966423357,-0.3162277660168379,0.14285714285714285,7,17,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,193.64446911942545,3.438028930407185,0.26718939459984553,3.1875944354633323,23.29093504132125,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875,781.2115679067806,-0.32763147756116817,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,193.80401038476273,3.522303943995241,0.34459823764561115,3.2559033603412564,20.059157179010704,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875,781.585389425669,-0.620126536676021,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,193.86412420689712,3.4803583784522645,0.18945546081745926,3.2462041859023487,16.173459040435468,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875,781.8712292744625,-0.620126536676021,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,194.73776743040773,3.563040699148272,0.4832484719803291,3.264389584694608,4.9167401436396725,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125,785.0608279292065,-0.24595492912420727,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,193.9935563431534,3.664733345225218,0.35284269070748464,3.414174087094596,-10.616745074348447,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125,781.190156397884,-0.4681771513464296,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,195.6153930378029,3.662133091914785,0.5027002678033098,3.336756987648861,1.4295223513475743,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125,787.8639629390365,-0.912621595790874,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,195.61907059427773,3.5759252361850598,0.32622081962472776,3.2626104178227875,-0.50544522653394,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125,788.2283010450695,-0.4222222222222222,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,196.5325100366261,3.744084559932112,0.608353446758644,3.3989703870045345,0.0,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875,791.0377164040988,0.0,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,197.03689281510916,3.7361223640286787,0.599322288789598,3.417406058535502,-17.672406057178254,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875,793.5823143695399,-0.3162277660168379,0.14285714285714285,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,193.88876403961075,3.88343766425971,0.5955451634943991,3.8147299549163565,-27.922723315462864,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875,779.4303448431646,-0.46817715134642945,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,196.248471274055,3.9932778808169798,0.42681688523206013,3.2793610290421396,-15.965265429543447,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125,787.3235403312923,-0.15555555555555559,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,196.1893924690447,4.166455453740183,0.7394114310988326,3.8004888510083057,-32.291563407364464,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875,784.0553610248666,-0.5384499882390601,0.14285714285714285,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,15.234762231799683,0.8989374618060754,0.1543655686737884,0.6609669682945042,23.063087751191624,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778,136.44402868453747,0.021500309114816228,0.23076923076923078,13,2545,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T20:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,15.393689869451103,0.8997702549532751,0.1891454624830076,0.6922290729212601,24.61044252212067,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778,139.10104897224846,0.01742639874498791,0.3076923076923077,13,2532,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T20:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,15.285589565855426,0.8983105290271857,0.13677808605501757,0.7390527286355068,23.646276041504183,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778,136.69391907719626,0.019765365125523977,0.23076923076923078,13,2526,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T20:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,18.965016095616956,0.9471932774974692,0.24052492278546136,0.6930963623213893,22.194681825138126,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778,155.3171967798203,0.06359440612057435,0.23076923076923078,13,1920,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,20.715295362479917,0.9973635886762385,0.2027692727687231,0.8420556006001912,18.337294342653784,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778,162.38407873647617,0.044540317377178,0.23076923076923078,13,1811,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,19.243688612969954,0.9936622852471874,0.2758650892800562,0.7413282851225069,11.533893251269006,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778,156.24416424310226,0.02328156674487641,0.15384615384615385,13,1907,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,18.564605660882894,1.032429780953503,0.22399141191577107,0.7853891612331191,16.17240024479637,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778,150.44781312969548,0.0015491601372687929,0.3076923076923077,13,2159,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,17.147640118341727,1.2548120928309712,0.3406873090235879,0.9794242112129384,0.0,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,141.60957032506784,0.027494523735468093,0.23076923076923078,13,2366,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T20:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,16.88341123282852,1.158549695005142,0.3160955711136425,0.9334418833332061,2.9766840611980094,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,141.83901632338535,0.08367981530319898,0.07692307692307693,13,2364,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T20:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,16.778437954452286,1.1614719333532841,0.33499316674788127,0.9211580697834113,1.7276842105862602,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,141.7790722481523,0.06401644335663062,0.15384615384615385,13,2364,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T20:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,29.603430723433654,1.6773916780467106,0.2817702603136214,0.72358941006252,-19.03676329346711,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778,211.36208944661607,-0.01099012546371949,0.23076923076923078,13,1934,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,18.450661442908466,1.40722695777643,0.3032694286510849,1.118684611219586,-3.581115072552552,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,146.46049080467245,0.07419620887011291,0.15384615384615385,13,2364,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T20:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,15.239897859904232,0.901048483104018,0.1548565306026782,0.6622461194917094,22.838300605926754,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875,136.4562248202112,0.019190627922101824,0.23076923076923078,13,2516,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,15.39739734180183,0.9005562656767363,0.1895023703088925,0.6928342270788045,24.53903461278223,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875,139.11264513318267,0.020447371797183016,0.3076923076923077,13,2503,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,15.291133001124964,0.9005596272483474,0.13700323477956117,0.7406992325742251,23.341632180734337,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875,136.70613360141996,0.02101967941113391,0.23076923076923078,13,2497,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,18.964699125331904,0.9471157619161314,0.24052342246408792,0.6930558742857736,22.199859606845248,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125,155.31691524744969,0.06332808667780647,0.23076923076923078,13,1921,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,20.716132556473227,0.9981454424556762,0.20298864124009625,0.8428840553795296,18.27860198272448,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125,162.3845507874026,0.04985123682012013,0.23076923076923078,13,1811,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,19.243386009848898,0.993584447317904,0.27586325396117223,0.7412796604919597,11.5411935730001,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125,156.24388833860218,0.022997693694017777,0.15384615384615385,13,1908,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,18.564900214543123,1.0327747006116998,0.22411709154183493,0.7858926738426566,16.044363997604048,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125,150.44897504584685,0.0063299929730214095,0.3076923076923077,13,2146,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T09:40:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,17.15595927072993,1.2560789559232828,0.34098065730172983,0.9805046204472379,0.0,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875,141.62377015477801,0.027201234219787096,0.23076923076923078,13,2337,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,16.892138782232788,1.1615436554645537,0.3164168930654245,0.9356360041893635,2.6850309083573025,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875,141.85276157541333,0.07976284316644308,0.07692307692307693,13,2335,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,16.78545965829615,1.1633283246064934,0.3351722615580132,0.9219099971249531,1.5967004531805107,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875,141.79419447592238,0.0627638992178676,0.15384615384615385,13,2335,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,29.602685044780245,1.6771461367616864,0.2817679303767769,0.7234731989594748,-19.01389910274924,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125,211.36171249931934,-0.011580959288722463,0.23076923076923078,13,1935,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,18.431513752532883,1.4053510594848482,0.3033654302510692,1.1167122642915905,-3.5900164079107237,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875,146.47919370602278,0.08448100378881603,0.15384615384615385,13,2335,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T02:20:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,135.30346765456403,1.9023769441032172,0.16208085804277114,1.7022088232046502,15.767387816511713,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778,442.7881845981343,-0.11708803167581375,0.09090909090909091,11,215,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,136.09204600129772,1.8697890268911492,0.16824072911981192,1.9863766151863496,19.921293163068,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778,451.3140947230294,-0.07364198506717809,0.09090909090909091,11,215,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,135.20360048972145,1.8859551530103644,0.14181763796181948,1.7548470598251085,14.557326155931186,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778,442.8023841092329,-0.16773077739781098,0.09090909090909091,11,215,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,135.36255423920102,1.9268742010569198,0.26002738240122525,1.702384635817031,12.955389697655304,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778,442.9900814875846,-0.05927497091882272,0.0,11,215,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,135.44849054381217,1.9883866791390148,0.23161481934482644,1.8551867096437624,7.474723231583777,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778,442.8908978325713,-0.06630019985897972,0.0,11,214,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,135.37313380523196,1.9410951838604946,0.2864013056962005,1.737460382997363,3.9511696961832814,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778,443.05185151262776,-0.07873742231723249,0.0,11,215,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,135.47753838300966,1.932974174671564,0.256887978829792,1.7356053059215546,12.73852659352457,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778,442.8823993690828,-0.1619573082788689,0.18181818181818182,11,214,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,135.97667473767936,2.13062884975908,0.4024477188860521,1.762440042913132,0.0,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,443.33231728851354,-0.07603629075712051,0.18181818181818182,11,214,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,135.84885003313875,2.12402365514134,0.4216439827638227,1.9253910346342444,-8.818525618476334,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,443.11443429823044,-0.06156960665112631,0.18181818181818182,11,214,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,135.77316997268665,2.218605488362655,0.3441183892050069,1.9419975564745164,-13.846385403710842,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,442.903664025979,0.06018655468994858,0.09090909090909091,11,214,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,178.275008456382,2.518558860148772,0.24167961625786555,1.6242954993693461,-25.838652740503537,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778,565.8364015000247,-0.06714942873928562,0.09090909090909091,11,215,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,137.24118323259657,2.5452606913491578,0.460822097606717,2.2700008203981414,-22.009229207366072,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,444.71103396104485,0.02127423603407995,0.0,11,214,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T20:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,140.61238667145676,1.9343044138710643,0.164446920361167,1.7288297147294374,15.807633203654483,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875,451.4946233781509,-0.17615755240541348,0.09090909090909091,11,205,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,141.45727570100632,1.9039586311067225,0.17051072367801082,2.0283690172965128,19.844267223590453,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875,460.2034749826222,-0.11594576824052648,0.09090909090909091,11,205,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,140.54427674478487,1.9244555138681192,0.14343516168544027,1.7884667267589165,13.391796693711592,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875,451.5034140569111,-0.20140324458806472,0.09090909090909091,11,205,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,140.72683930119527,1.9631859680052548,0.2630927248225825,1.7341127026158951,12.75025227594678,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125,451.6875812843316,-0.11018543068303743,0.0,11,205,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,140.78892054096073,2.0199345729056217,0.23533229169854022,1.8846251198600148,7.354546089942443,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125,451.5996749358133,-0.09315029311223505,0.0,11,204,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,140.70895376728242,1.9739597606035524,0.28946345234222365,1.7665494033955995,4.150582304787195,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125,451.7544595272939,-0.12453041720113647,0.0,11,205,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,140.8817777156987,1.9753005997679693,0.26217171812652695,1.7725611678840876,11.449439751983403,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125,451.5635898136403,-0.24820886962924452,0.18181818181818182,11,204,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,141.42130897420378,2.1747459027017366,0.40370611074166085,1.793069199174043,0.0,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875,452.00266902106125,-0.11480089900789477,0.09090909090909091,11,204,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,141.29804082848557,2.1747051296133297,0.4248256692782988,1.9700032823486773,-9.762972341078944,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875,451.77239836525496,-0.24660186029998074,0.09090909090909091,11,204,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,141.12747507806617,2.266735075229248,0.34981331201040294,1.9928023240192465,-13.826959012721051,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875,451.5735101268976,-0.018034618076678735,0.09090909090909091,11,204,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,185.37178147713098,2.5536505782562604,0.24474230946552197,1.6534870162427218,-25.86441523301397,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125,576.8704121143852,-0.13111557796974546,0.09090909090909091,11,205,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,142.61734628170217,2.5785629461854858,0.4697530826001883,2.2982323637753477,-20.373724513722344,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875,453.505495842816,-0.03616703152576467,0.0,11,204,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-23T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,15.201024002363626,0.8938532975149169,0.15958732001297868,0.6574898711139989,23.508841721913804,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778,136.3097945273363,0.03211215345929586,0.23076923076923078,13,2683,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,15.36968077178162,0.8970072583270248,0.19489386300964948,0.6900925463999266,24.80404883248728,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778,138.9676329479139,0.03174634436626464,0.23076923076923078,13,2669,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,15.254588518597519,0.8937147407949563,0.13715248652917064,0.7355866227944939,23.8881070290733,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778,136.56183580400523,0.03268719367039637,0.23076923076923078,13,2664,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,18.965016095616956,0.9471932774974692,0.24052492278546136,0.6930963623213893,22.194681825138126,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778,155.3171967798203,0.06359440612057435,0.23076923076923078,13,1920,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,20.71483357507939,0.9971966281435913,0.20276931586893496,0.841966979035134,18.440302913792582,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778,162.38340354072548,0.0458727740942501,0.23076923076923078,13,1812,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,19.243688612969954,0.9936622852471874,0.2758650892800562,0.7413282851225069,11.533893251269006,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778,156.24416424310226,0.02328156674487641,0.15384615384615385,13,1907,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,18.564954749234516,1.0329089466270656,0.2240356388273619,0.7857559944006648,16.161733693345816,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778,150.44735898669867,0.00029685119265217166,0.3076923076923077,13,2160,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,17.119032310198996,1.252805573587957,0.36849693144409684,0.9803972602388249,0.0,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,141.46839392574665,0.03557786254248723,0.3076923076923077,13,2518,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,16.872102275535863,1.1622826746979764,0.34440581827912947,0.9377438728761819,2.789573159891086,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,141.71453675214704,0.06671919946620322,0.15384615384615385,13,2509,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,16.781118699425008,1.1680750177971988,0.3469614500739273,0.9254741814889367,1.5430157539176543,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,141.66529137233084,0.044396387696880445,0.15384615384615385,13,2509,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,29.603430723433654,1.6773916780467106,0.2817702603136214,0.72358941006252,-19.03676329346711,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778,211.36208944661607,-0.01099012546371949,0.23076923076923078,13,1934,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,18.576528776341323,1.4281937532924311,0.31735027942804084,1.1367358405787058,-3.932881192556861,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778,146.55536095794773,0.05022990049664519,0.15384615384615385,13,2509,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,15.20065110905645,0.8937239377360141,0.1595855540811949,0.6573975798558322,23.51782160705088,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875,136.30960528511025,0.03184941741642475,0.23076923076923078,13,2684,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,15.369354212968647,0.8969080505643137,0.19489237513970423,0.6900315782371714,24.80863619706493,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875,138.9674390379394,0.03157193923246989,0.23076923076923078,13,2670,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,15.254282217764201,0.8936344799467592,0.13715137087264503,0.7355018526881735,23.890806166104504,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875,136.561606207296,0.03261972566597339,0.23076923076923078,13,2665,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,18.964699125331904,0.9471157619161314,0.24052342246408792,0.6930558742857736,22.199859606845248,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125,155.31691524744969,0.06332808667780647,0.23076923076923078,13,1921,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,20.714494432451236,0.9970897979469994,0.20276735827743064,0.841865125037099,18.45123087787983,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125,162.3831518994619,0.04544584164549416,0.23076923076923078,13,1813,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,19.243386009848898,0.993584447317904,0.27586325396117223,0.7412796604919597,11.5411935730001,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125,156.24388833860218,0.022997693694017777,0.15384615384615385,13,1908,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,18.564239204143057,1.0326603756573365,0.22403188464021603,0.785525261648349,16.177869036676984,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125,150.44723331195462,3.3155906953579e-05,0.3076923076923077,13,2161,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,17.11844033135731,1.2526930578349464,0.3684952179564504,0.9803087909289953,0.0,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875,141.46797704091742,0.03556609747964632,0.3076923076923077,13,2519,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,16.871535126086044,1.1621563925242528,0.34440384104469696,0.9376159102253953,2.7912100643977933,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875,141.7141717913958,0.06665894996018105,0.15384615384615385,13,2510,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,16.780773904823985,1.1679930873184594,0.3469619237383255,0.9256104703923624,1.544820044428646,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875,141.66498910172018,0.04427607444898624,0.15384615384615385,13,2510,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,29.602685044780245,1.6771461367616864,0.2817679303767769,0.7234731989594748,-19.01389910274924,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125,211.36171249931934,-0.011580959288722463,0.23076923076923078,13,1935,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,18.576087402020974,1.4280864485043077,0.3173487402563386,1.1366416142439497,-3.93013373932143,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875,146.5549935171359,0.0500581925005512,0.15384615384615385,13,2510,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689366239350181,11,2678,13,34.21527777777778
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672366222843691,11,2669,13,34.21527777777778
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6085058782720772,11,2664,13,34.21527777777778
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.57891199918493,11,1920,13,28.87152777777778
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5583766874463345,11,1809,13,30.87152777777778
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235811271473542,11,1907,13,28.87152777777778
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5127112985928534,11,2158,13,30.87152777777778
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3869236696898364,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802816463715424,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3743886160427353,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739283870565412,11,1934,13,28.87152777777778
-12,Official,ETS,0.3662174439764083,11,2509,13,34.21527777777778
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690595882869556,11,2679,13,34.46875
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672506631965874,11,2670,13,34.46875
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084222193830509,11,2665,13,34.46875
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5788853136781448,11,1921,13,29.125
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.558456153060992,11,1810,13,31.125
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235332252610707,11,1908,13,29.125
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512881070253985,11,2159,13,31.125
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38680236507990295,11,2510,13,34.46875
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801770427392045,11,2510,13,34.46875
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3742819824359866,11,2510,13,34.46875
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3741511178964434,11,1935,13,29.125
+12,Official,ETS,0.36609925872767607,11,2510,13,34.46875

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -1068,6 +1068,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.016002
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:40.980832+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.318613+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.716529+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,14.730247781693249,3.8380004926645395,0.07285828654679107,2.7724742935863618,12.205667657038132,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.429726+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0645216857991302,1.0317566020138327,0.015691951079973187,1.5735206753310387,15.186216493927011,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:47:59.936868+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.827638+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.442956+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2733168327666085,1.8092310059156649,0.10803900425641066,1.4275391023571982,-83.36246441225875,True
@@ -3633,6 +3634,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.106935
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:40.987848+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.356009+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.2761158361191085e-09,,1.8284365387902989e-09,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.720769+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,8.98468642325276,2.997446650609942,0.0739047920146499,2.7077797851984093,35.386837126131894,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.460581+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.44211740791918,0.6649190987775732,0.005373706505615964,0.48458706412935054,53.161858552082585,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.027373+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.831445+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.449329+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5439276523704102,0.7375145099388962,0.046772299948658815,0.5560793359617666,-29.362653024491433,True
@@ -6016,6 +6018,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.151881
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:40.995072+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.383853+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2825236033380433e-15,5.729331202974779e-08,,6.615357107869962e-08,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.727008+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,16.023109064437847,4.002887590782165,0.09891343697403591,3.2061535475925513,8.042969927882845,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.489620+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6548993434907633,0.8092585146235801,0.0062903535990643895,0.6093308144220174,37.64745820196962,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.080671+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.836369+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.455459+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3283621524577302,0.5730289281159636,0.035005040803706484,0.3944021862850001,-5.013872301521452,True
@@ -8167,6 +8170,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.180207
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.000368+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.408163+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.732604+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,6.778360945154837,2.603528556623652,0.0659019091876865,2.5225173618949928,47.05310253842168,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.525125+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7355296717546729,0.8576302651811402,0.0066885516337235615,0.6381325156237498,32.5593266794447,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.151197+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.841346+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.461777+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.87157741331302,2.805633157294984,0.18118849564157247,2.305010655802958,-92.72806813246383,True
@@ -10435,6 +10439,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.232409
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.005260+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.446341+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.853649481634599e-14,2.8024363474724275e-07,,3.428585403043706e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.738047+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,19.31706618290394,4.395118449246157,0.10797854677164836,3.2807850701421573,-1.2873964905265796,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.556996+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5838418540932059,0.7640954482871927,0.005991711933277477,0.5971399006551792,42.46663244656291,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.188133+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.846131+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.468175+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5102134033312663,0.7142922394449391,0.04664363716842725,0.5001710642696184,-26.41242374232566,True
@@ -12596,6 +12601,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.273943
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.011411+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.470182+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.745339+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,18.75514989299572,4.330721636516912,0.1090082813428403,4.2587825602635965,0.18856154012919688,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.580203+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.003222108942055,1.0016097588093154,0.00802098210618613,0.7736762327938708,18.069430463933315,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.206195+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.850386+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.474144+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.3267808205105582,1.1518597225836826,0.07517956182424669,0.9070184023669062,-63.4180093091124,True
@@ -15107,6 +15113,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.321893
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.016812+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.502691+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.751544+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,18.826013513513505,4.338895425510219,0.10710470085470088,4.0236177809183005,0.0,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.610872+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4457346470595647,1.202387062080911,0.009644644172201866,0.7817159281041771,0.0,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.271491+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.854934+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.480460+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2970069445219892,0.5449834350895348,0.03497060458568203,0.3919246551545454,0.0,True
@@ -17483,6 +17490,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.369860
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.027444+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.118532485826672e-16,2.0294167846518547e-08,,2.100961607814716e-08,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.530059+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2531377771354436e-15,5.703628474169267e-08,,5.3529450933708095e-08,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.756331+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,19.6292163993245,4.430487151468165,0.10734713255669855,4.110896586680706,-2.0886700915103606,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.629916+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5744148584995696,0.7579016153166384,0.006225173052763583,0.5109649398108195,43.13145072492208,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.322093+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.0567913947880086e-16,2.0141478085751324e-08,,1.987035718351735e-08,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.859633+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8988234753057142e-16,1.9745438651257444e-08,,1.9862935044893484e-08,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.486953+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.544534793908067,0.7379260084236542,0.04540045677160476,0.5579492822943593,-29.41361528280879,True
@@ -19516,6 +19524,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.396908
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.032371+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.585039+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.761258+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,12.439099049342035,3.5269106948350757,0.08704174012979589,3.5093982629437814,20.428247143940983,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.647908+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5253246582350554,0.7247928381510508,0.0056804114201574095,0.5986721358748863,46.69620981733642,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.375114+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.864562+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.493151+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3031609039401977,0.5506004939520103,0.03388109080434445,0.4519716889779116,-1.0253730575499465,True
@@ -21647,6 +21656,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.510054
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.042308+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.652100+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.906315718058047e-17,7.685255830522526e-09,,4.1680416340218845e-09,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.772115+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,11.836457564915554,3.4404153186665636,0.08507285300782723,2.9355069308602104,22.795148932125958,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.720552+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5805485956227847,0.7619373961309319,0.005959274371180239,0.584800517654934,42.698179267942116,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.454082+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.877872+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.505787+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5306346979291067,0.7284467708275648,0.04606859654796485,0.5331209648395672,-28.2281293526047,True
@@ -24316,6 +24326,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.423967
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.037369+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.622216+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.766480+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,13.194295051320376,3.63239522234577,0.08459454021962103,3.625870191777938,17.587958125981743,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.672628+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6872912799192444,0.8290303250902493,0.007615296287561774,0.6208303343810468,35.557156504636104,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.396046+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.873502+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.499460+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5674638970859237,0.753301995939161,0.05771672396615707,0.5213187898947491,-31.28583863637152,True
@@ -26691,6 +26702,7 @@ future-9d7348afd70fb47bdf55,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:32:39.572890
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.047926+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5938635983362707,0.7706254591799253,,0.00026672188425301877,-100.0,False
 future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.686360+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4259638831041896,1.1941372965887087,,0.000281771747513406,-100.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.783033+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,20.568630634720858,4.535265222092404,0.11180086154084279,4.02421421168532,-4.423487402628195,True
+future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:31:24.759946+00:00,2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.513275611439859,0.7164325588915254,0.0051272876204038614,0.47533841340943794,47.59847640277071,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.477373+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6154206253338284,1.2709919847638018,,0.00027921658048500023,-100.00000000000001,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.882527+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.009431487883987255,0.09711584774889861,,0.000283332430370609,-100.0,False
 future-a0ff9b06a931cb61671b,2026-07-14T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.511800+00:00,2026-07-16T06:21:52.245073+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2798615701410128,0.5290194421200537,0.03268669718646906,0.3652184159990657,2.9721459821728144,True

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 model,dataset,domain,frequency,prediction_lengths,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,Stability,Improvement,Improvement_pvalue,n_releases,MAPE_coverage,first_release,last_release
-ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.032704925470051,1.2618173863142206,0.014566524469917437,1.1908214345113508,10.1197687390634,2.126830988763306,0.03403607911323626,0.4577525468924829,215,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.02822259565676,1.2607522900906072,0.014571734778297322,1.1925931902558862,10.143224515706287,2.1229014708247815,0.03247200689061154,0.4776408470740481,216,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9083101123257313,1.261258169978178,0.011845155708664644,1.1042089583487873,17.948263157190265,1.7646338660449543,-0.19354838709677422,0.12407814866273859,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.430981811646138,0.370766603909224,,0.15157022461471686,-31.79656459177291,72.46141093454932,0.06469677557379651,0.14045294103659456,274,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128039e-08,,2.502171382189062e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,548,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@ ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.7075951
 ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.08938592017765,1.013669384906228,0.5450516177075309,0.6341238489945653,25.792373622139436,0.536199084992324,0.34012586155229246,1.9071800572108664e-09,142,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,194.09040636812642,3.5149279793999155,0.9192745512816514,3.1479968855665605,5.99861897331838,1743.1378176050575,0.24504974403554527,1.9364816618247272e-07,204,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6103921393088825,1.070203286080005,0.01005519166446684,0.7737355759657781,28.53003362108346,1.8967145492730757,0.07824267782426779,0.07107048183030118,240,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6055445263155645,1.0685216089542688,0.010035766414845054,0.7725357896096103,28.64677212786545,1.8942544003343063,0.0748271092669433,0.083652494132501,241,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.199376212562263,0.3189154656903312,,0.1405568707576083,-31.07087368448362,71.13837868797852,0.03825623679811225,0.37245335864247076,285,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.729686274365332e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,1.927627547135855e-34,0.0,1.0,568,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -25,7 +25,7 @@ Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.394
 Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0391402843229742,0.9894170271114018,0.5349815376123469,0.6360602317632279,28.131910063451926,0.5265025443384733,0.36350931677018633,7.691995824424643e-12,161,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.32052435973506,3.018938520197161,0.034355732036435445,2.709422916632916,24.069034652396596,1679.218777344755,0.2332918223329182,2.612791626778769e-07,220,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3590568061890482,0.9903873760658994,0.009904096481494432,0.7224803297054803,22.46278900129055,1.5862759252926775,0.21792674411223262,1.5690299334873387e-05,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.355122965615315,0.9893754829852162,0.00988390797377136,0.721848209508366,22.557693183794793,1.5826891667916059,0.21423639445107023,2.0647156106623688e-05,179,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,8.826375411993522,0.4479282125373743,,0.1799181940014753,-24.557373638805046,84.83848421033936,0.04157062428158732,0.41770124491616134,200,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.0941039077622845e-12,1.045994219755676e-06,,3.214861849916891e-06,-100.0,2.021858384873043e-28,0.0,1.0,426,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -38,7 +38,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2197099579302122,1.0810013805728789,0.5702207587503711,0.6935165434104239,28.17282127268216,0.5161945522851598,0.15572116131035557,0.014040647693432893,114,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,228.35382816531558,3.553257477348847,0.535576184284403,3.252814576747454,28.072472977870554,1924.153703100461,0.26931678811052595,2.3873558611663343e-07,167,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9749087632969757,1.1589421102324862,0.010345623598231867,0.9027200636186677,24.844477994351482,2.632850870866263,0.10619430558574225,0.020514504061896748,215,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9691708971324284,1.1575471479868784,0.01032869270950729,0.9014951212668394,24.880194886412095,2.6280741403124965,0.10396210163652023,0.022998670359794266,216,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.448610013695132,0.3655620746407916,,0.14735320466255647,-31.76389710666277,72.51570891716871,0.08663633723273328,0.04838218992159158,274,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128039e-08,,2.502171382189062e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,548,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -51,7 +51,7 @@ ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,17.28822967
 ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.062923434000745,0.995527250155036,0.5317832419617853,0.6366186442652785,27.8242535150799,0.5942335395698336,0.3864748776346019,8.860468670656982e-12,142,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,192.79184669046458,3.173811924937021,0.05478162737479353,2.94408565307993,21.4569173815964,1743.5234829989377,0.16864676905244858,0.00034047042434064216,204,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3255523211137077,0.9454819086177181,0.008962348252692317,0.6918819039958242,31.696846495752407,1.6419744746228764,0.3060071558596447,1.189559507764937e-09,179,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3214317074080382,0.9444742060603264,0.008945844717584457,0.6913555595328206,31.764157657944974,1.6383145538047237,0.30254500310366234,1.6402639183159967e-09,180,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,8.783192011683383,0.44571420460790684,,0.17734146672732806,-24.55020247971262,84.63450992331303,0.02501136575246573,0.6251649968625166,201,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.1005151803435396e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,427,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -64,7 +64,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.45
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1278691727807912,1.0359833568497623,0.5092334645064265,0.6731034701375159,32.2323099862297,0.5247401631994546,0.20329835082458766,0.001214221215900907,116,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,225.72141377681507,3.5063918505867244,0.5586191315549695,3.1330714586245754,28.215138845040556,1912.6388485923521,0.3088193857424627,2.519101166027516e-09,169,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.595777764036453,1.3562101026246272,0.01271889111785165,1.1329953562029307,13.473002609099206,2.906910608346005,-0.003781786568137362,0.9342444639752822,215,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.588404821188794,1.354568434366223,0.012697141539093938,1.1313318417427036,13.4942823676864,2.90216611858017,-0.004565030146425495,0.9204803447870819,216,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.486869850934467,0.38944453399639717,,0.17021273119641145,-32.576055885899514,72.52407598131104,0.08043613226078328,0.0668483138802308,274,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128039e-08,,2.502171382189062e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,548,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -77,7 +77,7 @@ Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,
 Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0861317863828843,1.008911131051856,0.5705545612336516,0.6470871686372446,26.506225998753617,0.574805903709013,0.3467186095295175,9.244981045509393e-10,142,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,194.64433352287642,3.5239422867632606,0.07180641008700073,3.2885318023482197,3.861018332094877,1743.9428054201687,0.2910267555297982,6.330451314672276e-10,204,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.108011234510908,1.5183312965350395,0.013715890820135591,1.0301377501059725,0.0,3.1904662194946947,-0.006737665724842427,0.8831373980138193,215,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.1003155095690036,1.5168685917459,0.013697042456024787,1.0289876490781864,0.0,3.1850467167144214,-0.006890611541774331,0.8802243736907243,216,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.811335081565297,0.43849587908926135,,0.1712725693119828,0.0,72.42921511885002,0.1446980539063893,0.002566009667765918,275,0.0,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,549,0.0,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -90,7 +90,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.913112285942165,1.3314768939317172,0.6514734798572527,1.0461980938090638,0.0,1.0922521561758867,0.5207327883384221,2.768667622410759e-20,143,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,193.8627444420358,3.592883222146693,0.0856287155254285,3.0456136785391354,0.0,1739.5470216588271,0.29016389119044994,6.902136472110782e-10,205,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.323207062028143,1.3654090653344653,0.013988832070442029,1.0748757864706302,3.696671623549243,2.076065277609487,-0.1643953769190961,0.0008353031599470442,187,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.313904975839161,1.3621776427279877,0.013947536011837357,1.071876260690525,3.9064310868544183,2.0744315059367833,-0.16782341563317782,0.0006267563530803425,188,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.44563563661902,0.4023153498699733,,0.15607592136044882,-31.008922991964166,77.93776874428441,0.036615890724451115,0.4012781553845268,237,0.0,2026-07-01T00:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,6.595599431522003e-16,2.322217119306191e-08,,2.023011836332676e-08,0.0,1.3881698688485564e-15,0.0,1.0,479,0.0,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -103,7 +103,7 @@ Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.48648
 Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2463094799442371,1.0935756315570324,0.5862729199938929,0.7372365873448081,22.64814312332872,0.5150182641385935,0.17815873015873018,0.0030903428510241303,126,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,219.52212833343663,3.717284646191996,0.2773850959696539,3.329242382391105,9.600444696638123,1855.4397261230854,0.2999379267535692,2.259306201411122e-09,180,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2924652831141397,0.9664427428421578,0.009427241559342393,0.8290658794304816,24.108108048992317,1.5164992416830831,0.3036698480978626,3.0075171480814273e-09,173,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.288056428948168,0.9650539502864618,0.009405708052795354,0.8277417774560242,24.250171582126555,1.5132279052561872,0.2981197262640356,5.222422594836484e-09,174,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.054946600619552,0.4613115864804278,,0.182834724017508,-24.84934326033105,85.92649130173157,0.04225375766985575,0.41823512484673353,195,0.0,2026-07-01T12:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,412,0.0,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -116,7 +116,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.436
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.154471754389707,1.0524631203257253,0.5478623028392814,0.8550100439288849,29.37774851701149,0.49241976404003895,0.10476190476190475,0.1132380824293668,105,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,247.53660545240493,3.8211200270294747,0.02894598485766242,3.613250485564524,21.52515557980803,2002.6180372079293,0.2874968169085816,1.213624345087292e-07,154,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5994120921013129,1.071465615789501,0.009887251026591262,0.7750211854507422,30.174673970948685,1.7836721042041281,0.05031468654407369,0.24674833844565747,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.595166827532652,1.070175914874257,0.009870884457193719,0.7742285993349264,30.234309710458177,1.7811512745358207,0.04804741980474199,0.2676742179484297,240,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.21664918520148,0.3153884695136067,,0.14014587341598428,-31.070268224312148,71.26721218054698,-0.00023028225279445822,0.9957258141297903,284,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,2.0440368407041847e-18,1.42969816419557e-09,,1.3977486927145102e-09,0.0,3.855261090221942e-34,0.0,1.0,567,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -129,7 +129,7 @@ TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3960741
 TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0620022241311462,1.0020402920646108,0.5433951815682505,0.6456280240973072,27.14398877427217,0.5160462434204027,0.36852161452113685,5.41011394258528e-12,159,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,181.44437681834188,3.009487211384316,0.29131907572532856,3.082894341816755,27.433761640008488,1714.0266974428744,0.2735117925516317,1.7095106304973464e-09,219,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.638967969038197,1.0784007804385085,0.010548357293420808,0.8842110547186213,28.153423628049854,1.895449190085244,0.06279473814842391,0.14915781148875462,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6349860582050633,1.0773573894119468,0.010536085071638973,0.8831090433364557,28.18851240945548,1.8924644328652338,0.06191765409092507,0.15404363753003578,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.216590414739115,0.31622621128322576,,0.12974211886898387,-28.848395066327843,71.26604187930977,0.11293549361919303,0.009377168452175217,284,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,567,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00
@@ -142,7 +142,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.045240052034546,0.9913427141059734,0.47019361734244985,0.7830977233973082,28.487294661641272,0.536313537457822,0.354349754091752,3.897784373471317e-11,158,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.12884814423555,3.0355175566244372,0.09369366371581486,2.8208094580865644,25.2058433477046,1683.0512293238269,0.27217125382262997,2.050856549870416e-09,219,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T19:55:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.277551305421047,1.2973832392587585,0.009791821183191307,0.750293883214471,0.04095970959438077,2.856198589746234,0.19619398403928792,8.80580697790275e-05,181,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.2678574829266447,1.294191202553444,0.009766191877901266,0.7487831388748828,0.33819418892673314,2.8512982748886015,0.1885131443142493,0.00015782950697466668,182,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,11.309586159013941,1.4735824726232214,,0.1808331860196804,-87.27438173846481,84.9485693492587,0.0029850746268656717,0.9498199909375991,201,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.5261327614743757,0.31161585455592317,,0.0002757557126553795,-100.0,3.408197463704578,-0.0020913665773478864,0.9484036961374356,429,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T13:05:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:43.025343+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:51.743237+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -11,17 +11,17 @@ Climate,TabPFN-TS,1.0068764519852622,1.060134200054248,9,5,5,1.0
 Climate,ARIMA,4.715503696525904,25.224389359520575,10,5,5,1.0
 Climate,Moving-Average,4.134367014342511,25.875934697489736,11,5,5,1.0
 Climate,ETS,21.543674640132167,62.452876356248865,12,5,5,1.0
-Finance,Moirai-2.0,0.22409481207132434,0.487951964417501,1,2,2,1.0
-Finance,Chronos-Bolt,0.2736790800966687,0.5057014143672646,2,2,2,1.0
-Finance,TiRex,0.20014521509059205,0.4804972472127513,3,2,2,1.0
-Finance,Chronos-2,0.2523933707387458,0.506197451614848,4,2,2,1.0
-Finance,Sundial,0.20034022644012986,0.40334349884436826,5,2,2,1.0
-Finance,Toto-1.0,0.36403878770224174,0.5639842939629471,6,2,2,1.0
-Finance,TimesFM-2.5,0.11438211185083069,0.40800471980297676,7,2,2,1.0
-Finance,ARIMA,0.3683953594873376,0.9397272103584965,8,2,2,1.0
-Finance,TabPFN-TS,0.376531850636821,0.6980066747495781,9,2,2,1.0
-Finance,ETS,1.327490577155719,1.2275741757852054,10,2,2,1.0
-Finance,Moving-Average,0.7842230797655203,1.0112370100581058,11,2,2,1.0
+Finance,Toto-1.0,0.47359649850734575,0.6231359237095236,1,2,2,1.0
+Finance,Chronos-2,0.45868389998246445,0.6317217686870393,2,2,2,1.0
+Finance,Moirai-2.0,0.4798581249676576,0.6605332244056603,3,2,2,1.0
+Finance,TiRex,0.5372417757981601,0.6992691084422749,4,2,2,1.0
+Finance,Chronos-Bolt,0.5518350621361773,0.7027270573740718,5,2,2,1.0
+Finance,Sundial,0.5430797293951739,0.7173067854498968,6,2,2,1.0
+Finance,ETS,0.6210066130524007,0.7929852425870437,7,2,2,1.0
+Finance,TabPFN-TS,0.5508969893448746,0.8267874459652148,8,2,2,1.0
+Finance,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090940677587863,0.7963579678462861,9,2,2,1.0
+Finance,ARIMA,0.7413661652254578,1.2443902340535606,10,2,2,1.0
+Finance,Moving-Average,0.8011696454027099,0.9378527989335791,11,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,2,2,1.0
 Hazards,Moving-Average,0.35737180512230066,0.48041852665503215,1,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Sundial,0.38205541355912803,0.49965959709714997,2,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 1D,Toto-1.0,1.1828445386062165,0.7008146109363338,10,1,1,1.0
 1D,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 1D,TabPFN-TS,0.8629829581417852,1.004036040514957,12,1,1,1.0
-1h,Sundial,0.5928988329170638,0.6264128587757046,1,6,6,1.0
-1h,Chronos-2,0.3851874381586311,0.6861756121812734,2,6,6,1.0
-1h,TiRex,0.24352514311721898,0.6928366288313604,3,6,6,1.0
-1h,Chronos-Bolt,0.3907922347181279,0.7079269789628776,4,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moirai-2.0,0.38477145861249823,0.750980470024963,5,6,6,1.0
-1h,Toto-1.0,1.1056924321415866,0.7372301384501444,6,6,6,1.0
-1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.32663931758123976,0.6946957638474895,7,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-2,0.4700571173602689,0.738760910451211,1,6,6,1.0
+1h,Sundial,0.8266958160973342,0.7589339078501757,2,6,6,1.0
+1h,Toto-1.0,1.2070389322819421,0.7621521414652723,3,6,6,1.0
+1h,TiRex,0.3384428383706496,0.785142800751391,4,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moirai-2.0,0.495940832164787,0.8307452021157272,5,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-Bolt,0.493706094794177,0.7899858262009699,6,6,6,1.0
+1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.5703969736111165,0.8681785098911137,7,6,6,1.0
 1h,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,8,6,6,1.0
-1h,ARIMA,2.4524522574171916,1.723089196647829,9,6,6,1.0
-1h,TabPFN-TS,0.7050333266293756,0.9229809081768588,10,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moving-Average,2.5683292552588832,1.712355329617519,11,6,6,1.0
-1h,ETS,14.097130523938198,4.119387986968383,12,6,6,1.0
+1h,TabPFN-TS,0.8003854893015097,0.9765717352616982,9,6,6,1.0
+1h,ARIMA,3.096279080186383,1.892166533015781,10,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moving-Average,2.586697565880482,1.6698897443180363,11,6,6,1.0
+1h,ETS,10.943401002277517,3.560998728982149,12,6,6,1.0
 1mo,Moirai-2.0,0.5701893078499076,0.5711658118752873,1,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Chronos-Bolt,0.6722527938921684,0.6335328970612374,2,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Toto-1.0,0.6317640740160342,0.6385745807295035,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,806035.7257398936,13298.536376002028,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.2487381887617173,0.638494607934358,1,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,0.35179445230883066,0.6340730140542091,2,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.4018883242955073,0.6769712416392594,3,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.6701746565513713,0.6765920699296923,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,0.4504443092936434,0.7587263483704342,5,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,1.0673210620490652,0.7378159242713437,6,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.32341653189243186,0.6747547058528858,7,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,0.41726641458067687,0.6755020428874297,1,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.32980996363298754,0.710747530536114,2,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,1.1506441378565604,0.7591436458872278,3,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,0.4910488847970414,0.7436980633116519,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.8911063790878467,0.7975611873368402,5,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,0.5599141005770759,0.8272973291632758,6,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.5215356544051807,0.8168262332285622,7,7,7,1.0
 24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,8,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,1.9349223833082991,1.45469875544213,9,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.7539605104106015,0.9516699792094232,10,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,2.2518228068172967,1.6220462061961167,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,7.951571699814711,3.0368427697148492,12,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,2.362872536227482,1.5762216685237753,9,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.8405590388716491,0.9988405588615388,10,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,2.265619805663808,1.5875051482372313,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,6.400085458836564,2.6803943648684987,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,Chronos-2,0.3946898495065526,2.0645293748590765,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.5029481269803793,3.1489990889930866,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TiRex,0.3521794375499615,2.212855827926193,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.34698113963034205,0.6595351074927018,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.4702548416253108,5.100554092921695,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.5327844359541174,5.564259127404021,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,1.271612435653142,7.549025266881626,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,69.40561913887251,14.670496289951066,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,0.43268228989411894,2.1361019300883823,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.40995577193139365,2.344352317307399,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.5863450480593485,3.4406355318900266,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.5286975323240499,5.343807856551616,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.4487953726978033,0.7310069040248663,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.5934827454627915,5.853165573506846,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,72.27252382299581,14.897341447673787,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,1.4160569065190673,7.882303531315528,8,13,13,1.0
 Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.8214655650356198,0.9559013908887042,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,1.3964972157104203,8.098635118799962,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,2.7745239253800706,11.349828465815198,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.8709943017830731,0.9811288865190397,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,1.401098006741648,8.005311788166683,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,2.4684777060273344,10.6118711698599,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ARIMA,1.2814899105689481,4.792966359732972,nan,nan,0.01765942321073851,nan,nan,1.132029112067772,nan,nan,2.0423224561647157,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ARIMA,1.0645216857991302,3.043999571436649,nan,nan,0.015691951079973187,nan,nan,1.0317566020138327,nan,nan,1.5735206753310387,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,ARIMA,0.459657391080611,1.4186819575230558,nan,nan,0.015254467601366208,nan,nan,0.6779803766191254,nan,nan,1.0911009757378656,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ARIMA,27197.688534080287,28885.073828115153,130.26006235500384,1.3733941545973163,0.6111556523811462,1.024494621436719,15.484310582150973,164.91721721542686,1.0152918018145418,0.8019294507021014,0.723321704945088,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ARIMA,4.407835548068247e-15,1.12132504091072e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.639153220154094e-08,nan,nan,2.543803079815313e-07,Climate,1,36

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.143342+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.934478+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.683407+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.429726+00:00",
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+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
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     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.6526260564378586,0.6526260564378586,nan,nan,0.006067757967200621,nan,nan,0.8078527442782246,nan,nan,0.7081438418034445,Finance,1,24
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 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.46766119047554405,0.46766119047554405,nan,nan,0.007905167973149461,nan,nan,0.6838575805498862,nan,nan,0.46522569178545187,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-2,25067.461899718543,25067.461899718543,121.96686029434204,1.2859549577545721,0.6608019070822674,0.9393767274480805,18.969076544647905,158.32707254199624,0.9747204171363386,0.7508734105557137,0.605299940786381,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-2,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.6284716271939715e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.2761158361191085e-09,nan,nan,1.8284365387902989e-09,Climate,1,36

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
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+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
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     ]

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.7853026727817074,0.7853026727817074,nan,nan,0.006557460871799693,nan,nan,0.8861730490043733,nan,nan,0.718173819419224,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.6548993434907633,0.6548993434907633,nan,nan,0.0062903535990643895,nan,nan,0.8092585146235801,nan,nan,0.6093308144220174,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.18688054976150958,0.18688054976150958,nan,nan,0.0051711825704424995,nan,nan,0.4322968306170074,nan,nan,0.4058204324653165,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-Bolt,24494.29886562596,24494.29886562596,120.14190149307251,1.2667135440416435,0.6356253615465683,0.9144911966348365,18.167880022797153,156.5065457596773,0.9635125763281969,0.7396382845884965,0.5956771935646294,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-Bolt,3.2825236033380433e-15,3.2825236033380433e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,5.729331202974779e-08,nan,nan,6.615357107869962e-08,Climate,1,36

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.054874+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.857920+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
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+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
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+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
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     ]

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ETS,16.385833623376048,16.259972381204673,nan,nan,0.029469640004273226,nan,nan,4.047941899703607,nan,nan,3.480467589602686,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ETS,0.7355296717546729,0.7097302599458554,nan,nan,0.0066885516337235615,nan,nan,0.8576302651811402,nan,nan,0.6381325156237498,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,ETS,0.6408955093300958,0.6313675673407003,nan,nan,0.009101007451294283,nan,nan,0.8005594976827742,nan,nan,0.6303599235318722,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ETS,27619.336324418462,28734.51642651467,129.964918000045,1.370282306464171,0.618770085277974,1.0227875260688906,19.0701060641571,166.19066256687967,1.0231316056095572,0.8001124321457544,0.7242860136139402,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ETS,4.407835548068247e-15,1.12132504091072e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.639153220154094e-08,nan,nan,2.543803079815313e-07,Climate,1,36

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.126717+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.898563+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.525125+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
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     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.6207704342179979,0.6207704342179979,nan,nan,0.005896980776234927,nan,nan,0.787889861730685,nan,nan,0.7416557038435344,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.5838418540932059,0.5838418540932059,nan,nan,0.005991711933277477,nan,nan,0.7640954482871927,nan,nan,0.5971399006551792,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.21278374675130304,0.21278374675130304,nan,nan,0.005280194356236305,nan,nan,0.461284886757959,nan,nan,0.3795351078211372,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Moirai-2.0,20775.499102946527,20775.499102946527,107.845894018809,1.137070854757381,0.5779948164087865,0.7687864471222213,13.629300063640835,144.13708441253598,0.8873615660779484,0.6639394837327767,0.5370367497191665,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moirai-2.0,7.853649481634599e-14,7.853649481634599e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,2.8024363474724275e-07,nan,nan,3.428585403043706e-07,Climate,1,36

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.048805+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.844359+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
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-            "prediction_length": 72,
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-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.268579+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.556996+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
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     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Moving-Average,4.686247914849095,4.758596699291899,nan,nan,0.01762216138704398,nan,nan,2.1647743334696794,nan,nan,2.047185761049996,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.003222108942055,0.9711936731867356,nan,nan,0.00802098210618613,nan,nan,1.0016097588093154,nan,nan,0.7736762327938708,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.044791038156368396,0.045366471148876784,nan,nan,0.0024233645276332716,nan,nan,0.21163893346066645,nan,nan,0.13449609782917926,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Moving-Average,33703.3339872141,34919.977384896825,150.98728679575507,1.5919311979035975,0.862092038435816,1.5500551973378933,23.0273565699048,183.58467797508075,1.130215641726378,0.9295339628591026,0.8356046823445622,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moving-Average,4.407835548068247e-15,1.12132504091072e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.639153220154094e-08,nan,nan,2.543803079815313e-07,Climate,1,36

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.119675+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.891404+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
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-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.580203+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,17 +1,23 @@
 {
-    "status": "ok",
+    "status": "partial",
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     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:05.945536+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:45.197411+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:22.552849+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:53.931151+00:00",
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+    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
-    "failed_forecasts": [],
+    "failed_forecasts": [
+        {
+            "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
+            "dataset": "nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short",
+            "error": "Mean forecast length 10 < 24"
+        }
+    ],
     "models": {
         "Chronos-2": {
             "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -19,24 +25,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
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-                {
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-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.460581+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -47,24 +44,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.023434+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.828322+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.053544+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.434508+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.720552+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -75,24 +63,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.024271+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.834434+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.028729+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.406015+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.672628+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -103,24 +82,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.025047+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.837580+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.086583+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.467728+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.759946+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -131,24 +101,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.048805+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.844359+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.817531+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.268579+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.556996+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -159,24 +120,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.054874+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.857920+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.768972+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.213578+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.489620+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -187,24 +139,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.065740+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.870832+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.970475+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.378468+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.647908+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -215,24 +158,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.109389+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.886934+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.947595+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.356630+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.629916+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -243,24 +177,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.119675+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.891404+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.867426+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.315620+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.580203+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -271,24 +196,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.126717+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.898563+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.791662+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.230416+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.525125+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -299,24 +215,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.143342+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.934478+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.683407+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.147036+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.429726+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -327,24 +234,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.169935+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.972570+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-dfe459610da03ba6f44a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T06:12:39.442298+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:10.906573+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T18:10:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.336034+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 36,
+                    "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.610872+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -370,7 +268,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-30T02:18:56.862708+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8.json

@@ -205,7 +205,23 @@
   "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:10.127782Z",
   "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
   "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
-  "status": "open",
-  "scored_models": [],
-  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+  "status": "resolved",
+  "scored_models": [
+    "ARIMA",
+    "Chronos-2",
+    "Chronos-Bolt",
+    "ETS",
+    "Moirai-2.0",
+    "Moving-Average",
+    "Seasonal-Naive",
+    "Sundial",
+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
+    "TimesFM-2.5",
+    "Toto-1.0"
+  ],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+  "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.793756+00:00",
+  "target_start": "2026-07-29T03:00:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-dd1ee7a7b62d6ef8fa2a.json

@@ -0,0 +1,211 @@
+{
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+}

results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,7.048334207001062,7.048334207001062,nan,nan,0.019709459731993104,nan,nan,2.654869903969131,nan,nan,1.7791411461294853,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4457346470595647,1.4457346470595647,nan,nan,0.009644644172201866,nan,nan,1.202387062080911,nan,nan,0.7817159281041771,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.423041225920173,0.423041225920173,nan,nan,0.006630019192383367,nan,nan,0.6504161943864659,nan,nan,0.47004627101100765,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Seasonal-Naive,36436.1429036395,36436.1429036395,152.79166432221731,1.6109556133900285,0.8264244641534466,1.5187046461435552,64.32233589831223,190.88253692687422,1.1751439790441005,0.9406423828344558,0.9402466648974208,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Climate,1,36

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.169935+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.972570+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
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-            "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.610872+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Sundial,0.3810945163794563,0.28435575175498173,nan,nan,0.0035615771584842186,nan,nan,0.6173285319661292,nan,nan,0.36769928781265504,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Sundial,0.5744148584995696,0.6041999836841437,nan,nan,0.006225173052763583,nan,nan,0.7579016153166384,nan,nan,0.5109649398108195,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Sundial,0.020980244564637807,0.0447908708599997,nan,nan,0.0023348485467426807,nan,nan,0.14484558869581707,nan,nan,0.15634843776673438,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Sundial,27047.212071285932,27202.68214463723,143.1162110964457,1.5089426812363538,2.4254864254221506,0.8536544624552972,36.2452386153836,164.4603662627745,1.0124792572257424,0.881076689786568,0.7401326095810744,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Sundial,4.308665199870628e-15,4.368388469776477e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.564042351989077e-08,nan,nan,5.50010332296457e-08,Climate,1,36

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.886934+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
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-            "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.629916+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,1.1964328422935875,1.1964328422935875,nan,nan,0.008011604856278753,nan,nan,1.0938157259308294,nan,nan,0.9711401099653182,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.5253246582350554,0.5253246582350554,nan,nan,0.0056804114201574095,nan,nan,0.7247928381510508,nan,nan,0.5986721358748863,Finance,1,24
 bitbrains_fast_storage/5T/long,TabPFN-TS,5094671.185438427,5094671.185438427,483.1624726930903,1.1526641321691184,6.84183501453906,0.8053138505812252,70.21928659273716,2257.1378304034574,5.964941308843822,1.2768541439646968,0.8850161893008147,Web/CloudOps,2
 bitbrains_fast_storage/5T/medium,TabPFN-TS,4622063.369807966,4622063.369807966,441.63762099470586,1.307633919865287,6.807939859955235,0.805070973047274,98.99555171639452,2149.8984556969117,6.531985259967827,1.3418170625410066,0.9486319340358308,Web/CloudOps,2
 bitbrains_fast_storage/5T/short,TabPFN-TS,2246919.058831472,2246919.058831472,263.97642698274865,0.9980513501588254,4.24383417854469,0.7465228041656109,83.52859027541167,1498.9726678066788,4.706403428343518,0.8288206900872653,0.6618188415356218,Web/CloudOps,2

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.870832+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
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-        {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ffe889cccb2e303a383a",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T15:33:15.834772+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:14:11.378468+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.647908+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.11816428061596851,0.221237056571051,nan,nan,0.0031417562868775797,nan,nan,0.34375031725944416,nan,nan,0.37089252967394576,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.6872912799192444,0.8952764581047544,nan,nan,0.007615296287561774,nan,nan,0.8290303250902493,nan,nan,0.6208303343810468,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.16431138716961843,0.2840452984238427,nan,nan,0.006365738815062364,nan,nan,0.40535341021091514,nan,nan,0.28603521259581766,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TimesFM-2.5,28434.715767887308,30940.314541637516,136.81071631113687,1.4424608331286375,0.6894371389934627,1.1431172573156296,43.032391046456816,168.6259640977252,1.0381242287022936,0.8422577158188848,0.7508176845882389,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Climate,1,36

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
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-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.024271+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.834434+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
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-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.672628+00:00",
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+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TiRex,0.3928143548618805,0.3928143548618805,nan,nan,0.004636217583293121,nan,nan,0.6267490365863202,nan,nan,0.6284378194458644,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TiRex,0.5805485956227847,0.5805485956227847,nan,nan,0.005959274371180239,nan,nan,0.7619373961309319,nan,nan,0.584800517654934,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TiRex,0.3044911716818759,0.3044911716818759,nan,nan,0.006462456928120581,nan,nan,0.5518071870516692,nan,nan,0.43965609435457953,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TiRex,26189.183511279563,26189.183511279563,125.3613642056783,1.321744836442649,0.6820653407770266,0.984424218821475,18.101060665387852,161.83072486792972,0.9962902055610486,0.7717712406949717,0.6145704862690891,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TiRex,5.906315718058047e-17,5.906315718058047e-17,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,7.685255830522526e-09,nan,nan,4.1680416340218845e-09,Climate,1,36

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
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     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.023434+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.828322+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.720552+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Toto-1.0,1.4785189045689047,0.5257197788860285,nan,nan,0.005341797693177002,nan,nan,1.2159436272167,nan,nan,0.886202143871693,Finance,1,24
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.513275611439859,0.4076828043578129,nan,nan,0.0051272876204038614,nan,nan,0.7164325588915254,nan,nan,0.47533841340943794,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Toto-1.0,1.2672091214948127,0.013642740360327242,nan,nan,0.0013252159503021489,nan,nan,1.1257038338278913,nan,nan,0.23265817163880909,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Toto-1.0,23019.0460822337,26241.382774419122,124.61535914738973,1.313879348219856,0.6257435399486769,0.9697879270582787,13.780075922721792,151.7202889604212,0.9340465971435247,0.767178555755332,0.6004176198191844,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Toto-1.0,0.509185738969756,5.221383248232232e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.7135725183677942,nan,nan,0.00027828666115628606,Climate,1,36

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:17:41.025047+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-30T02:33:49.837580+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
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-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T18:15:00+00:00",
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+            "dataset": "binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9f0a77a1edc9a1c492a8",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:13:56.017653+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-30T02:31:24.759946+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-30T02:00:00+00:00",
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