Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:11.780818+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:48.328767+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27398,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2705,
+  "num_model_releases": 27410,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2706,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
@@ -25,14 +25,14 @@
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2574,
-      "num_unique_releases": 215,
+      "num_model_releases": 2502,
+      "num_unique_releases": 209,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26946,
+      "num_model_releases": 26949,
       "num_unique_releases": 2636,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
@@ -40,6 +40,6 @@
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 5010
+    "prequential-v1": 5022
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,2.1324248374664876,0.8917404450134286,0.18102464678555133,0.6204856582878557,27.940436091531215,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375,5.033123354140631,0.07146307472394425,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,2.025252585549928,0.8329923448003107,0.20339701201468655,0.6046060436869803,32.651108986687674,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375,5.0151341024447955,-0.15075914749827793,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,2.1181736519173056,0.8815327918470641,0.167738449013346,0.6962874623301128,25.135348430409035,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375,5.072459055782207,0.07146307472394425,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,2.0656210091205014,0.8975906092527829,0.3170466654898961,0.6189745046765568,26.244939272084224,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9,5.016880794261696,0.07146307472394425,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,2.13581594087137,0.9379713123706173,0.539786656907444,0.7478237920466404,21.69980207517367,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9,5.272976876818658,0.5159075191683887,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,2.052502588243201,0.9157900750401284,0.6936669902887682,0.6587415036714608,20.59667389909896,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9,5.109299581892103,0.4047964080572777,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,1.928296239475065,0.8934446879573882,0.6796469288803295,0.652140944061564,15.101312528170476,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9,4.5604722912378755,0.4444444444444446,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,3.085615714594032,1.2510137641599184,1.1058116042670771,0.8794688300605324,0.0,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375,7.923945619983566,0.6376236430584258,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,2.1908003462407573,1.0619618795832373,1.1075473516484013,0.8679427531059722,5.232804108935349,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375,5.448020894495475,0.6376236430584258,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,2.2345771951391606,1.0671616291558619,0.5394340385557461,0.7391466115793772,0.987560157855002,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375,4.317769666594433,0.2936852969461665,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,2.7703777055087224,1.2428658312946261,0.6117325297217828,0.6294977249816996,-13.59725609211427,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9,5.585676629465822,0.0,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,2.267785680157744,1.0479969393458277,0.4466706697687714,0.8059367294657227,-2.88532585747473,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375,4.94125943772205,0.07146307472394425,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,2.05862249246808,0.8732350371176507,0.17809263073397863,0.5877695234361315,28.83417889700049,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778,5.1447353646936,0.07146307472394425,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,1.941579372755194,0.8123215114733757,0.200379994749622,0.5791111912239406,33.63339357699172,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778,5.131143170220878,-0.15075914749827793,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,2.0275270334533553,0.859355807967206,0.16447401418952576,0.6468595381271166,26.17784655548186,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778,5.196260351183432,0.07146307472394425,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,2.04042362751478,0.8908914350978563,0.3145582780747685,0.5941148932625685,26.579201523052415,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778,5.055035115734207,-0.039648036387166886,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,2.0496198037342555,0.9167491120554053,0.5367496372831867,0.6930484519735362,22.704557265768585,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778,5.391535340559944,0.5159075191683887,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,1.9965413022795973,0.9013304706091793,0.6909140204015011,0.6202830724665466,21.31674406742116,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778,5.18892819515362,0.2936852969461665,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,1.9062900212515055,0.887711558962219,0.6769359892104724,0.6150777745017627,15.377406330829052,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778,4.594899154410911,0.3333333333333334,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,3.0844055296238406,1.2506657697169885,1.1038756223985469,0.8741796820096518,0.0,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,7.925809907480013,0.5265125319473146,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,2.217378877929002,1.070070672011673,1.1056932522346614,0.8436929535914095,4.7200486535688055,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,5.406130561109058,0.5265125319473146,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,2.345173044973889,1.0881750129751988,0.5360997938672497,0.7724400087765512,0.29037889333535866,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,4.2103068935519845,0.2936852969461665,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,2.730036665190942,1.2323074819792654,0.6090728134811062,0.5977435400941348,-13.06884674206257,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778,5.649973350669907,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,2.110130532464622,1.0110377423170303,0.4433415440498069,0.7538889525924007,-1.2192788485758252,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,5.134865287331598,0.07146307472394425,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.025582677678265,0.878152426744237,0.15933120460746197,0.6406905988730632,23.486185026540664,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375,135.95356575595565,0.037833616442532136,0.3076923076923077,13,2589,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.193470865745907,0.88237762317779,0.1951465084008919,0.6742390507589532,24.680867478375482,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375,138.6699809983028,0.02988458367041593,0.23076923076923078,13,2576,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.074731122855432,0.8783752311170219,0.1372877536900027,0.720296088872574,24.01445456106307,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375,136.2055825044758,0.03729687868201551,0.23076923076923078,13,2570,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.504007303670864,0.9249964497232189,0.240551120429589,0.6709012921717391,22.183248936089804,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9,155.3654496516315,0.07059825224617088,0.15384615384615385,13,1887,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.16058200687427,0.9724894532028405,0.20247019892374427,0.8180088904713874,18.678403864507935,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9,162.6519125291399,0.04988540545768867,0.15384615384615385,13,1779,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.764013145928825,0.971355404708246,0.27605437892281165,0.7189770026749519,11.569299294377448,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9,156.3025075441987,0.02948068173434388,0.15384615384615385,13,1874,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.17227811324317,1.0123125087597822,0.22443709944099952,0.7654332801832356,16.16745775733107,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9,150.3516657319956,0.0064870630296851245,0.3076923076923077,13,2127,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.864118846107784,1.2377911659299958,0.3684203849931827,0.9645649304925908,0.0,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375,141.15958853366038,0.03183701829853611,0.3076923076923077,13,2416,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.599222221945096,1.1434672690848382,0.3439333117648863,0.9191738141711251,3.117259557215414,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375,141.39911621091423,0.07393222204774189,0.15384615384615385,13,2409,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.524781942702766,1.146386981228172,0.34728233598019576,0.9021194072241177,1.9185905728505246,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375,141.4041826074805,0.05348444447733339,0.15384615384615385,13,2409,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.325162907121026,1.658975011105849,0.2828149263043924,0.7011782579543895,-19.049325309081567,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9,212.37810621092956,-0.005804317520342319,0.15384615384615385,13,1901,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.29434675466242,1.4012252097245002,0.31527851771858423,1.111579544447533,-3.3448476331486257,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375,146.27239716890543,0.06916821360021488,0.15384615384615385,13,2409,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,13.967915221285466,0.8770778705195164,0.1592466499032136,0.6396236737444886,23.52328012768292,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778,135.65824043927208,0.04004186034158335,0.3076923076923077,13,2589,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.134379302429535,0.8809821316682875,0.194926427347732,0.6728093265129389,24.773885022028686,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778,138.36672068559744,0.032845125030970666,0.15384615384615385,13,2576,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.01663884477145,0.8773949737496451,0.13717122769361106,0.7192629255618406,24.03293777654778,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778,135.9081894395179,0.039066212669429175,0.23076923076923078,13,2570,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.409827993467257,0.9243519317420029,0.24024204133125246,0.6700166560224374,22.167007288961347,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778,154.92411449881155,0.07067127159629866,0.15384615384615385,13,1888,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.046981280061186,0.9718226220811339,0.20246020987679908,0.8168649546035497,18.5601989896061,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778,162.14411433815246,0.048676322573180913,0.15384615384615385,13,1779,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.66748230878029,0.9706568337975678,0.27575445488349193,0.7179691619302784,11.554722081338399,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778,155.8530959783085,0.029574326947446425,0.15384615384615385,13,1875,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.085985530315074,1.01117565718052,0.22425283388015957,0.7641291472126643,16.16752634270506,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778,149.95119883598608,0.008028953945761171,0.3076923076923077,13,2127,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.797621337727321,1.2368314415383672,0.36831094377428,0.9634436236945038,0.0,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,140.8312947457188,0.031466255589189744,0.3076923076923077,13,2416,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.528812473700283,1.1412320708192898,0.343746101254413,0.9169726756125756,3.1897138320405367,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,141.0650216186699,0.07945839800621712,0.15384615384615385,13,2409,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.453950343042463,1.1442008374926713,0.3466913823267299,0.9009560572054424,1.9616555091378258,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,141.06831191607262,0.06023493112247125,0.15384615384615385,13,2409,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.199140161499866,1.6578953200093265,0.2823223461295559,0.7003826730059062,-19.050285322370648,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778,211.82202116686068,-0.0058994536085525,0.15384615384615385,13,1902,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.225482912679006,1.3998022905573175,0.3151735545715322,1.1103762483997937,-3.3262852990224165,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,145.94591302965574,0.07242442682671582,0.15384615384615385,13,2409,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,116.78180805481479,1.7511732073187243,0.15726416354397948,1.5373534913196443,16.82122790633591,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375,449.11971689688033,-0.15817291383762797,0.08333333333333333,12,215,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,117.57342985837705,1.7349453035359792,0.1565709032751556,1.8175528746595464,18.834156309415192,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375,457.9913307282046,-0.19012519531404448,0.0,12,215,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.6768536091263,1.731299133127708,0.13757235918531838,1.6049914404037304,17.500724793876085,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375,449.14205021654584,-0.18239413557740988,0.0,12,215,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.7421661104359,1.7673272900034576,0.2266728164600818,1.5345347265687532,14.86049838807129,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9,449.25277322928866,-0.10239730698211301,0.0,12,215,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.93567713049977,1.8401406084078067,0.21913489582075854,1.7120400517998438,8.812409922100821,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9,449.258440200173,-0.12666485252408183,0.08333333333333333,12,214,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.74579901671105,1.7860873693995085,0.25146942484751633,1.5781197537807417,6.309391320417336,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9,449.360542294556,-0.0985846069607661,0.0,12,215,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,116.87376606573906,1.7909971022333668,0.2358399160640711,1.5962482601404846,14.295891312891683,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9,449.3408778571974,-0.19027263227890187,0.0,12,214,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.31887140096576,1.9865054985489146,0.35709656290370534,1.6184891858240043,0.0,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375,449.6654978080617,-0.12445782465137854,0.08333333333333333,12,214,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,117.09721275750788,1.9423911107678073,0.3657536314371838,1.7501078066781857,-3.0147361984163115,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375,449.4433015080536,-0.05647073254653128,0.08333333333333333,12,214,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,117.17424780837102,2.0106747986320195,0.29533794938429486,1.732623889240599,-6.9272118583428375,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375,449.3523452313675,0.013367704349620079,0.08333333333333333,12,214,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,157.82354130110323,2.356572455292493,0.21864293056344292,1.4739321571756074,-24.876322063598238,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9,576.4076582283948,-0.11589967076811392,0.0,12,215,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,118.37868213032802,2.2834966157329197,0.39845522325468835,2.015881959330134,-12.525297642776417,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375,450.552540876569,0.005629147722539853,0.0,12,214,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,127.3297254386786,1.8360131968143263,0.15460452937718283,1.62688959487668,15.277475473529945,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778,449.09778055130613,-0.16087982484493424,0.09090909090909091,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,128.18710079100794,1.8137458357798442,0.1545761408283174,1.9310204576710204,18.181558857885552,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778,457.95573883419087,-0.16826629005592977,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,127.2251884800407,1.8220272644983466,0.13780500632808784,1.69019884949438,15.16714039880161,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778,449.11448515316755,-0.17960338219377114,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,127.2713626562001,1.8513489419935054,0.23241418280299087,1.6248321911024526,13.100517463089721,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778,449.2292420449465,-0.08264643861464384,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,127.44694538600383,1.9080677677220412,0.21866405100776024,1.7790163753130452,9.027117774223022,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778,449.22341633143265,-0.10018263908534665,0.09090909090909091,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,127.29182712186979,1.8772535684981897,0.2601354270414039,1.6637101170062125,3.3088300394366894,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778,449.3346732124161,-0.08201974889393177,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,127.41166054369336,1.8809377701666805,0.2445905439083005,1.6825331356496813,12.05575628253917,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778,449.24281126121735,-0.15541815868925044,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,127.8415673827256,2.0589271262745537,0.3686852048434852,1.6808727182307954,0.0,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,449.65592388994844,-0.14162155683487357,0.09090909090909091,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,127.67585231843437,2.051719417975856,0.38896820372857815,1.860712033219182,-7.276201324180767,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,449.4253212676549,-0.08013823763696125,0.09090909090909091,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,127.80659783481947,2.1391418811323435,0.31341864343301384,1.8667011199686456,-12.1281454902897,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,449.3145954549071,0.013834826160615422,0.09090909090909091,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,171.91930006201935,2.4394898978727393,0.2190775864940041,1.5414047823845651,-25.33121538756491,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778,576.3464033297564,-0.05863397940721819,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,129.08282889010943,2.421907038222912,0.42472099015969483,2.151380973223139,-17.517770457222017,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,450.573450029066,0.026158552441667905,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.021183963229293,0.8763938810574203,0.15943367526649052,0.6400154475104026,23.541987161069148,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375,135.9506130799841,0.03692483956873822,0.23076923076923078,13,2650,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.186997095970888,0.8793663150192084,0.1949698221214949,0.6729002533274074,24.75599887384723,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375,138.66562692320142,0.0363033247366301,0.23076923076923078,13,2636,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.06921824746637,0.8762174932541705,0.13722855920107976,0.7183732970087179,23.966209653747548,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375,136.20478953225475,0.03806038514851319,0.23076923076923078,13,2631,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.504007303670864,0.9249964497232189,0.240551120429589,0.6709012921717391,22.183248936089804,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9,155.3654496516315,0.07059825224617088,0.15384615384615385,13,1887,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.16058200687427,0.9724894532028405,0.20247019892374427,0.8180088904713874,18.678403864507935,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9,162.6519125291399,0.04988540545768867,0.15384615384615385,13,1779,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.764013145928825,0.971355404708246,0.27605437892281165,0.7189770026749519,11.569299294377448,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9,156.3025075441987,0.02948068173434388,0.15384615384615385,13,1874,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.17227811324317,1.0123125087597822,0.22443709944099952,0.7654332801832356,16.16745775733107,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9,150.3516657319956,0.0064870630296851245,0.3076923076923077,13,2127,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.853627127857148,1.2343739767541737,0.3683773181314919,0.9622203332871274,0.0,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375,141.15527290994376,0.04165213059865101,0.3076923076923077,13,2485,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.595858662945293,1.1424435925506429,0.3441494309315823,0.9186930361260296,3.0334538893484195,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375,141.39793084804552,0.06777220767222422,0.15384615384615385,13,2476,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.530155208274865,1.1475077887647207,0.34769494352482583,0.9032779146754097,1.7729560656001444,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375,141.41251631081457,0.0431386860132856,0.15384615384615385,13,2476,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.325162907121026,1.658975011105849,0.2828149263043924,0.7011782579543895,-19.049325309081567,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9,212.37810621092956,-0.005804317520342319,0.15384615384615385,13,1901,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.32136109777344,1.4075587101401366,0.3163070585899526,1.1168738166629708,-3.7319338170505683,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375,146.28709597878822,0.04987677773028151,0.15384615384615385,13,2476,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,13.964179539529699,0.8760297320910174,0.15942179664612086,0.639422470275717,23.532483365983502,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778,135.65497599628205,0.037099333741732014,0.23076923076923078,13,2651,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.128984981881855,0.8790042507618919,0.19484770380645686,0.6722357824918953,24.745156494147643,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778,138.36225956867378,0.036441161736018926,0.23076923076923078,13,2637,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.011686494509643,0.8758457256267457,0.13719114306027325,0.7177398091889761,23.956268226651748,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778,135.9071035144561,0.03819921289003599,0.23076923076923078,13,2632,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.409827993467257,0.9243519317420029,0.24024204133125246,0.6700166560224374,22.167007288961347,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778,154.92411449881155,0.07067127159629866,0.15384615384615385,13,1888,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.046461723183796,0.9716060336327446,0.2024569771336772,0.8167401145669497,18.667140413978878,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778,162.14341587198427,0.04993864998935446,0.15384615384615385,13,1780,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.66748230878029,0.9706568337975678,0.27575445488349193,0.7179691619302784,11.554722081338399,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778,155.8530959783085,0.029574326947446425,0.15384615384615385,13,1875,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.08631610028754,1.0116300052938585,0.22429536608700557,0.7644820630289766,16.160549498158595,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778,149.9507121823038,0.006538706301667385,0.3076923076923077,13,2128,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.78727823876891,1.2337688011116013,0.36834102911259853,0.9616315344049232,0.0,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,140.82627126764052,0.04157941741812342,0.3076923076923077,13,2486,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.528955528281061,1.1418698890837236,0.34411934039912734,0.9178347684891673,3.031560412914106,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,141.06646231033451,0.06775816885971545,0.15384615384615385,13,2477,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.465436188941624,1.1473875781972795,0.34728102762628327,0.9036927624400514,1.752183467842612,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,141.08082803736755,0.04345480930098317,0.15384615384615385,13,2477,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.199140161499866,1.6578953200093265,0.2823223461295559,0.7003826730059062,-19.050285322370648,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778,211.82202116686068,-0.0058994536085525,0.15384615384615385,13,1902,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.254902304163807,1.4070669986772377,0.31628556710094413,1.1162800897239769,-3.737474340065163,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778,145.9555565300828,0.05009989869292097,0.15384615384615385,13,2477,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9
-12,Official,ETS,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778
+12,Official,ETS,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9
-12,Official,ETS,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778
+12,Official,ETS,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9
-12,Official,ETS,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778
+12,Official,ETS,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6691091094260668,11,2645,13,33.24375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.667292738122263,11,2636,13,33.24375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609003860094374,11,2631,13,33.24375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5781940088277939,11,1887,13,27.9
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592341254086307,11,1776,13,29.9
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5234791210098096,11,1874,13,27.9
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118917708676072,11,2125,13,29.9
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861638899649629,11,2476,13,33.24375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3800969242630943,11,2476,13,33.24375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3750970505158992,11,2476,13,33.24375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739435435508982,11,1901,13,27.9
-12,Official,ETS,0.3664938579486001,11,2476,13,33.24375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669100600084035,11,2646,13,33.40277777777778
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6672060738795925,11,2637,13,33.40277777777778
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090815738282103,11,2632,13,33.40277777777778
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780458566457148,11,1888,13,28.05902777777778
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5593846459549465,11,1777,13,30.05902777777778
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236166840610137,11,1875,13,28.05902777777778
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118559694283602,11,2126,13,30.05902777777778
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38617626167234675,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38024830005645427,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3749215024287608,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738625947353253,11,1902,13,28.05902777777778
+12,Official,ETS,0.3664999372252397,11,2477,13,33.40277777777778

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -899,6 +899,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.624654
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.134705+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.872709+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.012018205319216,1.0059911556863788,0.0836489282045721,0.6651035544968589,26.50914862777105,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.636439+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7737924923906938,1.331838012819387,0.40324451500302533,0.9436863491191796,-52.35963725450252,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.240134+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,8.55998226466887,2.9257447367582956,0.019397731887557744,3.945031456837376,-48.013528407184694,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.168245+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.519175+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.105528+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
@@ -3431,6 +3432,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.633094
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.141532+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.877979+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.33317548246507434,0.5772135501398719,0.0616300816417261,0.40730738939347905,67.89120534406699,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.671476+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7137070198363952,0.8448118251044994,0.24752145421301702,0.45198585922462553,-12.541653150645905,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.279134+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0102227687076364,1.7349993569761448,0.003940912651454766,0.7942351511510204,-0.06180609108136603,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.276069+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.523982+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.2761158361191085e-09,,1.8284365387902989e-09,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.123495+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.2761158361191085e-09,,1.8284365387902989e-09,0.0,False
@@ -5781,6 +5783,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.641190
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.148943+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.883264+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.4310728730577817,0.6565614008284234,0.07096415387377422,0.4009369346011632,60.32807365524762,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.703447+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6143170358105299,1.270557765633082,0.4051195081382661,0.6250431844248019,-48.85680940127838,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.298680+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0020969012581866,1.7326560250835095,0.003938793819488803,0.7942074993333476,0.0733475863547154,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.308155+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.529835+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2825236033380433e-15,5.729331202974779e-08,,6.615357107869962e-08,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.139817+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2825236033380433e-15,5.729331202974779e-08,,6.615357107869962e-08,0.0,False
@@ -7899,6 +7902,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.654191
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.153916+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.888071+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.654694252940534,2.1574740445577865,0.2456519831297819,1.8891673554375865,-45.53173632040054,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.740533+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.05635440560636,2.0140393257348177,0.6267927815877185,1.4888967252138963,-75.94287455793591,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.321365+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.60951152486656,1.6153982558077002,0.005595832905559699,1.1349112035633127,7.068935864201404,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.346964+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.536087+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.155392+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
@@ -10134,6 +10138,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.658434
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.158266+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.892758+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3898067486594757,0.6243450557660208,0.06567948143335396,0.4007737263523997,63.431431576769434,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.780225+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6981449355928067,1.3031289021400787,0.4105629757660742,0.7829303706664178,-50.75989126026423,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.344599+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.1928149894709166,1.7868449819362946,0.004583214102939878,0.9159819394164409,-3.0053449869574855,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.382007+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.541831+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.853649481634599e-14,2.8024363474724275e-07,,3.428585403043706e-07,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.170648+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.853649481634599e-14,2.8024363474724275e-07,,3.428585403043706e-07,0.0,False
@@ -12262,6 +12267,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.667282
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.162489+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.897694+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7479716566991124,1.3221087915520084,0.15426481251080987,1.1347611106914806,-0.16778998625396938,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.809143+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5095552322791658,0.7138313752414962,0.2309020754520915,0.6220898781358368,4.236139906340457,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.367643+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0708855309959375,1.7523942281906595,0.003930817610062893,0.7914259368697338,-1.0593605188199782,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.431187+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.549181+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.204662+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
@@ -14740,6 +14746,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.679707
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.173824+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.902775+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7421156397042257,1.3198922833717248,0.1457171943452428,1.0908438583633677,0.0,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.843200+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5546358556339729,0.744738783489871,0.23668158597052533,0.6566908401986667,0.0,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.393621+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.006504065040653,1.7339273528728512,0.003930817610062893,1.2423628484550617,0.0,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.480914+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.555104+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.218990+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -17083,6 +17090,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.683181
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.178184+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8606889965586045e-16,1.9648636076223217e-08,,1.9419258577311766e-08,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.908210+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.35779752740937604,0.5981617903288173,0.0627388858025345,0.40092986350558546,65.92263594392523,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.870197+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.26875342984365086,0.5184143418576023,0.16779109127974737,0.25051689225297,34.720202318942015,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.427793+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.3817427434002028,1.8389515337279019,0.004201388675628384,0.8503095594453434,-5.873891376014826,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.532044+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.7344684981517577e-16,1.93247729563681e-08,,1.9132808798188814e-08,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.560302+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.650745850393388e-15,8.746854206166574e-08,,5.523482629082523e-08,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.233038+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.011276546173616e-15,7.079037043393414e-08,,5.303877621460812e-08,0.0,False
@@ -19083,6 +19091,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.688686
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.182789+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.916299+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5937987429117937,0.7705833782997098,0.08016602610722302,0.6508801531437828,49.15920315137653,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.927335+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.11620990011855711,0.3408957320333552,0.09788685047844842,0.21637794499132687,65.35421171795382,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.482821+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.005682175642375,1.733690334414533,0.003931806072499018,0.7916307492459745,0.013670391524406645,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.602994+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.565563+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.251207+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -21181,6 +21190,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.701889
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.191766+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.929024+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3803086061014676,0.616691662098222,0.06683787203760601,0.38593492858776407,64.16280987620374,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.990863+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9809588560454966,0.9904336706945582,0.309114263601004,0.5332396143125862,-27.762729134776528,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.525085+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.008671345983993,1.7345522033032021,0.003936306846577777,0.9798782697597327,-0.03603022015564123,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.719991+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.576482+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.906315718058047e-17,7.685255830522526e-09,,4.1680416340218845e-09,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.289479+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.906315718058047e-17,7.685255830522526e-09,,4.1680416340218845e-09,0.0,False
@@ -23817,6 +23827,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.694468
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.187057+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.923691+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.32866668832112883,0.5732945912191469,0.058026119799378495,0.4626809309765442,68.25676133381562,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:44.950678+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.40757879155620774,0.6384189780670745,0.1494768303876565,0.40860851046252666,15.28318702144008,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.500666+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0040916827348085,1.7332315721607452,0.003943338311970887,0.7987589498784374,0.04013549416856433,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.666035+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.571082+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.280940+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -26159,6 +26170,7 @@ future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.707110
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.201752+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0198291465802043e-05,0.005495297213600193,,0.00028521000729058333,-100.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.935023+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5370570282330741,0.7328417484239514,0.06568059242750443,0.3856177364663934,52.872633496511504,True
 future-479d62fca0f1790c31e7,2026-07-25T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-25T08:18:45.037147+00:00,2026-07-25T01:52:45.567759+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8611325397698155,1.964976473083028,0.3281375925095703,0.4648835610280091,-74.87930498296636,True
+future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T01:17:54.543716+00:00,2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.1066490125910557,1.7625688674747026,0.004601083822581364,1.0098113623904836,-1.6381881212305562,True
 future-48cd6c99a9ffcddbf31a,2026-07-27T15:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T19:38:04.763051+00:00,2026-07-28T17:42:40.359220+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.8677488633820276e-05,0.00432174601681083,,0.0002806731604289746,-100.0,False
 future-4915de7f5636da288e62,2026-07-19T18:55:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:11:24.583116+00:00,2026-07-19T19:17:51.176773+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.29861358350905687,0.5464554725767296,,0.00027504601763818446,-100.0,False
 future-4952ace598625ba41530,2026-07-21T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:24:03.302639+00:00,2026-07-21T05:08:00.145749+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.5132227156190425,1.5853147055455716,,0.00027308432713007394,-100.0,False

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.224989505012516
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.676857050690692,0.9482953842520914,0.45516115075163893,0.7414801600628518,3.093313252763524,3.8125426268499294,-0.29146968139773893,3.2361181388683506e-07,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.7032288939326719,1.2115706707260652,0.0946102123839448,0.945074865415258,-43.30653634279677,1.4433810484488727,-0.0180334907685702,0.754571057214523,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0916503227619407,1.0146347255455106,0.5465022594907215,0.6345709141123799,25.747175384249985,0.5374288690247903,0.3487335359675785,8.50228697321562e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.6707797824356,3.2398549494815376,0.9345657835651412,2.8610342478286124,6.265269533246274,1739.0041761415337,0.23698492462311554,6.242009260199784e-07,200,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,176.82943253110346,3.238292212104805,0.9300127086811731,2.866427268768954,5.995225762398357,1734.6922285867222,0.24109452736318404,3.7176433164781903e-07,201,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6143995287769621,1.071300987091728,0.010071875487467954,0.7740100183681309,28.269168769570957,1.8996766414901718,0.07963854998066172,0.06675174172264038,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.77066292070
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.021420096704319,0.7601464052316582,0.34268467491723437,0.5152385850105019,22.20062475012013,2.3428438544951105,-0.3470265106281347,8.456780624602227e-11,159,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3960585555804672,0.5790431846700701,0.04271482667689994,0.39893577500800953,14.66222017945875,0.3184370314998671,-0.11755341432760787,0.029949082098449084,155,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0413996920396353,0.9904559715658838,0.5363381411707965,0.6362508618104663,28.063020671756387,0.5273720647193769,0.3727987421383648,2.6193163766608677e-12,160,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,163.8197020252611,2.7622635911985665,0.03229517947380816,2.4670239301989487,24.277413123257187,1673.7704520559307,0.22609819121447025,7.640045531686394e-07,216,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,163.0786445171664,2.7575296546353294,0.032164514649742015,2.459315226148037,24.153863787143795,1669.9271699678038,0.22836661546338966,5.566426150045669e-07,217,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.362298354965361,0.9909761575747218,0.009923004027311918,0.7225046602720693,22.098942754948517,1.5901846812739464,0.22059578839239857,1.3058414977773687e-05,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.76884396
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.523819771491744,0.6185176791541969,0.3808061056536098,0.4137400558279903,12.795230785816507,0.581730871421917,-0.4636422136422136,4.269587867818866e-13,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3987001203481794,0.5530554896629497,0.041572755643710595,0.4061900266783742,23.340723376709242,0.432410599970157,-0.22227682227682227,0.0005438741542448725,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2249135435449419,1.0835341487156682,0.5724419425603384,0.6945384373936527,28.051940779366433,0.5154818339422389,0.17383059418457647,0.00634405866011995,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,208.80584170192498,3.2220092066494086,0.5450017607523462,2.942923966977481,28.688416782008176,1923.598346144963,0.2621373930167386,6.808328279545382e-07,163,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,207.55094081899404,3.2129277848105926,0.5417025963198289,2.9298220372967236,28.498913012500537,1917.7559957883902,0.2633547807870717,5.573853014225799e-07,164,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9075679929227745,1.145442111216266,0.010256259035586813,0.8906745144318265,25.146768370353712,2.4464040828135194,0.09780176385415296,0.033282650029523714,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.972878454121812,0
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,3.846856252097679,1.0773483913908197,0.5160379131744395,0.8505321852031522,-0.250627635613973,27.20681351812713,-0.24295991778006165,2.0550353213759956e-05,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,17.337510213225286,3.4623709049940796,0.2783688872326554,2.8613860891495864,-79.59825386409274,29.455892218923594,-0.0695577501073422,0.22789018295126917,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0627208446524012,0.9951782002606023,0.5327837275609973,0.6363642991741855,27.90969100864625,0.5963471046096972,0.388855116514691,7.858078893788261e-12,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,176.26633922683968,2.9002403083618327,0.05311351510331603,2.68631969515496,21.546322501340818,1739.1227655033595,0.15849246231155778,0.0008593015758172801,200,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,175.40237490991439,2.8938480593441502,0.0528771087242227,2.678601244948037,21.474295702151075,1734.8127526701887,0.16139303482587064,0.0006675563821811754,201,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3295117699164924,0.9463672571957353,0.008979569418290392,0.6916022759067921,31.367009216121886,1.6457491264731656,0.30895702405890946,9.19671354596505e-10,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.6702253387
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.47547175421648535,0.5911284984685183,0.34657001596175063,0.39862287201840146,15.510384264489803,0.5581746740873943,-0.35018963337547404,3.8282782387080044e-08,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4596497251098418,0.6019139260088127,0.045463166934756945,0.4453651428233059,13.463937883699375,0.465756317152148,-0.16666666666666663,0.00918741981446774,112,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1304647518983042,1.0370727626193432,0.5107380276441154,0.6731193099460583,32.26528489237877,0.5262881896601348,0.21098398169336388,0.0008290829887706363,115,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,206.43176640885795,3.1777147854000884,0.5689616476654804,2.825026749609387,28.877008326203136,1911.9609740286091,0.30303030303030304,7.585555312314019e-09,165,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,205.20743537621107,3.169336051644282,0.5655617775837783,2.8135264796684654,28.665866913533197,1906.2236170419494,0.30397955458196424,6.120924778009835e-09,166,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.5860092119298526,1.3524317650973139,0.012695978639958229,1.1287234384232716,13.44189853303409,2.9101870458041974,-0.008907024702733534,0.8462843005375524,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.891444
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.4911726518655655,0.9796162863931354,0.4619319383127711,0.7616332272792946,-1.779155228455438,2.520696320441719,-0.3498458376156218,8.655173937908163e-10,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.8941136749312533,0.9040589310184801,0.06571722361625384,0.6420580649951123,-27.923074001144748,0.5279755324332177,0.12430227565478745,0.0311751555356117,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0900319304850437,1.0108731630728574,0.5722630682656018,0.6482504138732484,26.358443456810843,0.5749664615888548,0.36231003039513676,1.840340051391804e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.88877640863433,3.251481387250371,0.07046098486806962,3.0340792719906347,3.888293404042196,1738.9876242044147,0.28834170854271357,1.3314027701935891e-09,200,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.0190356579993,3.244023242180422,0.0701299890110646,3.022921792711426,3.863678210396116,1734.6785332141717,0.2881592039800995,1.2389812816479193e-09,201,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.089598510340393,1.5130203684629175,0.01368788348877177,1.0266377342367037,0.0,3.1864761823370666,-0.013119213724715898,0.775230539748514,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.907553
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7532017652395215,1.044974394336836,0.46526155408279957,0.8630157021995427,0.0,2.6554133117162233,-0.3775075987841945,3.105581970162213e-11,141,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.5223443333775349,0.6751719888395882,0.04946972808987797,0.48277532689845176,0.0,0.3807782887448099,-0.12345287210409395,0.031705958862002934,138,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.9160184974416845,1.3322272910097313,0.6519855330675701,1.0464845716678126,0.0,1.0955635614361836,0.5279192887823394,1.148744327006388e-20,142,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.2386868107538,3.3231185902677995,0.08456501759110266,2.7885487131234252,0.0,1734.6565021250751,0.28931812810329405,1.1390056199643451e-09,201,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,176.3761512526067,3.3152513069143597,0.08416583838327572,2.78089432765477,0.0,1730.379480775133,0.2883728567564352,1.171098544915019e-09,202,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.3336485273273295,1.369431003685908,0.014044892580721374,1.0786778106569637,3.2340679926689107,2.076739478282935,-0.15919790758500432,0.00125367582101177,186,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ Sundial,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.8814562785987
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.054992186384303,0.7580821340697509,0.37340606759500905,0.5277248689224906,17.225297718466496,2.450987061549282,-0.3882447021191523,1.9142930214824517e-10,123,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.48976451311655905,0.6413920305241586,0.04798019709437776,0.47110462082697313,7.637687132070183,0.4022893607708384,-0.09159663865546218,0.1379603855637,120,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.251693975777147,1.0962671878187695,0.5879786018429195,0.739115145342716,22.471632285721125,0.5135175973238089,0.19561290322580646,0.001215626874239255,125,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,201.1803345543061,3.4093920088179503,0.28015622890187736,3.039060231395567,10.022012979848158,1853.17588075173,0.2928571428571428,7.909974367990398e-09,176,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,200.06282838588294,3.400519463760944,0.27859716200794377,3.0266944083901985,9.932205610605996,1847.9634846057363,0.2935285053929122,6.618675445409676e-09,177,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2930236112584452,0.9657022022428051,0.009435472005290437,0.8282398664622558,23.80957906614156,1.5209091532305468,0.3034135726914185,3.4484971719621384e-09,172,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,3.06693070269
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5157516384542906,0.6007336108772311,0.33706225175290916,0.493891344563285,11.758926767559108,0.7070839145137922,-0.3809251856082239,1.1844447764328179e-08,103,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.43903676142419146,0.6062637279898775,0.04572457479996947,0.4987213246926012,7.9735894941649725,0.4209513728032518,-0.24441855950300911,0.0002724013305386247,102,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1554855471617163,1.0527346385754788,0.5496779303164246,0.8550534807803529,29.491072472688508,0.4946942567215266,0.10791635548917103,0.1044931719451935,104,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,227.02379906004896,3.4678429505130723,0.025893199373899552,3.282237849657082,22.12382378006275,2004.7343635302782,0.2810738255033557,3.324482780914578e-07,150,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,225.54023537207277,3.456358496101824,0.025747759683161803,3.265743762899393,21.97739892318502,1998.1239069872552,0.28176600441501104,2.83578554439002e-07,151,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6044818304930752,1.0733341728449766,0.00990931419231941,0.775637081946561,29.88973440242601,1.785704738010647,0.053788604049214615,0.21659803303164127,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.468994721394927
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9493183057139502,0.7305680707486996,0.3259131651348741,0.5045782357558168,23.6695016972218,2.170650391332058,-0.29691327780499754,3.411248991710397e-08,157,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39816467283157264,0.5735765169584173,0.04251426653623243,0.4106670828210269,16.673151210431,0.3609433303296342,-0.08434994771697457,0.12304104274105974,152,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0632440639767924,1.0024932104134163,0.5446481267295167,0.645186056943566,27.146297533300423,0.5174487039145088,0.37369991131177943,3.19761308814089e-12,158,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.906687707978,2.7512286378478676,0.29408942337699057,2.84571237587791,27.731304190477275,1709.3194904167672,0.26694196913714413,5.753294244933187e-09,215,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.1525302248206,2.7465218025027536,0.29274612191157195,2.8370742550162524,27.590353254382677,1705.3757148079078,0.2687338501291989,4.185086780178527e-09,216,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6453848622382907,1.0815005714223864,0.010579608774461076,0.8863769556681769,27.825438502908504,1.8968683448062447,0.06908388757777299,0.1132848151615818,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.473458750
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9991738454172477,0.7474061493814469,0.31779536069647274,0.5743196281090878,19.61594355012348,2.3505259430960734,-0.31927212572373864,3.3157283895297562e-09,156,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4533461016113975,0.6099502663777426,0.05418315012554729,0.4667789516012221,11.587002735481406,0.42408142945545413,-0.05594283722551412,0.30641238164790063,152,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0475523130284314,0.9923960873153186,0.4710410591864389,0.7841892243786447,28.42300878663538,0.5372390869456428,0.36354728074473297,1.4042489419322144e-11,157,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,164.55325398521518,2.7771550699696603,0.09284408886823566,2.577592747713293,25.500130286513574,1677.6300529251394,0.26555096718104765,6.8963956353511745e-09,215,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,163.80534119677773,2.7723220908131374,0.09243251131936406,2.5693574060566498,25.37089173426817,1673.760134693757,0.26735572782084405,5.018131452831616e-09,216,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.28199037431467,1.2978356815478813,0.009816543535913609,0.7495388373219307,-0.37220432904438483,2.8635395035234312,0.19739292364990688,8.348137639666252e-05,180,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -153,5 +153,5 @@ Toto-1.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.456804836314
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.8244936372319593,1.1336393860700649,0.3894818079764779,0.4191680516131009,-31.633505933662313,3.099877679411469,-0.4342493401645708,7.410658045370871e-12,114,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.46167255666176726,0.5948082701912413,0.03949701191422227,0.38016552633276796,13.652316905731757,0.6366899576072879,-0.17824967824967822,0.005335583988800219,112,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.3940537916097533,1.441288244428483,0.5371208405925065,0.7176013128266404,4.039408682085815,2.243356562315245,0.15355142941349836,0.01410361848672397,117,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,278.340325449192,4.120614222280513,0.9148892469203409,2.7473688898779907,0.24631796523095392,2441.7862392859315,0.18173291970276317,0.0004899346707052851,167,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T17:25:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,276.70202975611693,4.106578238025717,0.9094708649971397,2.7370262855477074,0.2338377924729323,2434.557133713036,0.18049615055603083,0.0005145970795093709,168,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.493430638855567,1.1822810283926517,0.2168787045319125,0.7022572165896811,34.8197182017094,0.749996768684687,0.1515151515151515,0.5452047007776174,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:09.617196+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:46.137103+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ Hazards,Toto-1.0,0.5447067827362504,0.6198857623270299,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.5159030493533491,0.6552873663892604,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.5234081583087049,0.7154825875538315,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ARIMA,1.2269112284011117,0.011499160121666012,1,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.404729850196838,1.1960217692826496,3,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ETS,0.9523264982279901,1.413925826854192,4,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.0024625953992206,1.4195138970935746,5,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,0.9594962477594612,1.429272791688821,6,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.1972563095808026,1.430834784024005,7,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.9849030045350553,1.4373480961382665,8,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.0036238735228775,1.4702663025017735,9,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.0073362506270407,1.4859340309570945,10,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TiRex,1.0012405403812725,1.4861053101432065,11,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Sundial,1.440734424960613,1.5535414274488537,12,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moving-Average,1.0214140625,0.6370328425821091,1,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,0.999726629540324,0.6371976997142226,2,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,0.9985341234579681,0.6392717717863047,3,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.001236886292696,0.6392940292272022,4,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,0.9991976121589539,0.6429353154529154,5,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Sundial,1.12480897089839,0.6844293199066155,6,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.0619692907109857,0.7372901890583003,7,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TiRex,1.0007208641320466,0.7887214842091093,8,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.033309433609247,0.8128151639806623,9,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ETS,0.8679554287684873,0.9135102558601378,10,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ARIMA,2.8471547283782317,3.1754261339537115,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,ETS,0.09518516095471151,0.2761720625285491,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TimesFM-2.5,0.07281852879570394,0.2570119454529022,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Chronos-2,0.05541782384319625,0.2784674272092755,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,18 +11,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Moirai-2.0,0.9931170314987676,0.9506171711084153,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,TabPFN-TS,1.0965296750513482,1.1700878991909816,12,1,1,1.0
-15min,ARIMA,1.2269112284011117,0.011499160121666012,1,1,1,1.0
-15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
-15min,Toto-1.0,1.404729850196838,1.1960217692826496,3,1,1,1.0
-15min,ETS,0.9523264982279901,1.413925826854192,4,1,1,1.0
-15min,TabPFN-TS,1.0024625953992206,1.4195138970935746,5,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-Bolt,0.9594962477594612,1.429272791688821,6,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moirai-2.0,1.1972563095808026,1.430834784024005,7,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moving-Average,0.9849030045350553,1.4373480961382665,8,1,1,1.0
-15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.0036238735228775,1.4702663025017735,9,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-2,1.0073362506270407,1.4859340309570945,10,1,1,1.0
-15min,TiRex,1.0012405403812725,1.4861053101432065,11,1,1,1.0
-15min,Sundial,1.440734424960613,1.5535414274488537,12,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moving-Average,1.0214140625,0.6370328425821091,1,1,1,1.0
+15min,TabPFN-TS,0.999726629540324,0.6371976997142226,2,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-Bolt,0.9985341234579681,0.6392717717863047,3,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-2,1.001236886292696,0.6392940292272022,4,1,1,1.0
+15min,TimesFM-2.5,0.9991976121589539,0.6429353154529154,5,1,1,1.0
+15min,Sundial,1.12480897089839,0.6844293199066155,6,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moirai-2.0,1.0619692907109857,0.7372901890583003,7,1,1,1.0
+15min,TiRex,1.0007208641320466,0.7887214842091093,8,1,1,1.0
+15min,Toto-1.0,1.033309433609247,0.8128151639806623,9,1,1,1.0
+15min,ETS,0.8679554287684873,0.9135102558601378,10,1,1,1.0
+15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
+15min,ARIMA,2.8471547283782317,3.1754261339537115,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,3435.0787926466096,13387.708756277516,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.5576433571152533,0.779402439602899,1,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,1.5787596269837267,0.7427681112992338,2,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,0.4363032412745184,0.7731678960521806,3,7,7,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.40755110061546296,0.7848117755249148,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.76628887403599,0.7951649138785134,5,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,0.48703109631598324,0.8170281322644872,6,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.5846121902452651,0.8121028434361633,7,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,1.7607071307004754,0.6824733543335233,8,7,7,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.5241233676911973,0.8494189656362727,10,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,1.4463025059517132,1.339988542356155,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,3.5524449486150416,2.066595093420495,12,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,0.5608293917962269,0.6947735023966775,1,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,0.4359248594492632,0.6854020533266556,2,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.4075208750037558,0.7169053287880022,3,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.7396642689284539,0.7072954916181082,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,1.5109992124474214,0.7028932165321663,5,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,0.47875947312849443,0.7431922095033404,6,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.5843839874972961,0.724295800103808,7,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,1.4538428914828272,1.1929310738479457,8,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.523792523212111,0.7547507699335021,9,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,1.9857080598449828,1.5234191095529954,10,7,7,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,3.5056767179476993,1.9415720355820805,12,7,7,1.0
 36,ETS,0.0003160064870084056,1.000000000000001e-12,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0553883777131202e-07,0.0008433365473335877,2,1,1,1.0
 36,Toto-1.0,0.05469192573721511,0.0020086340389211823,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,Chronos-2,0.142975467577705,1.0632067964645853,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TiRex,0.10755182340543817,1.0125656165297305,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.2957813410336612,1.0193893042192035,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,3.3592192549904594,1.9423851835563368,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.16880944948996154,1.222593456611186,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,0.6187341653580067,1.4512906216590702,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.20375531481736278,1.83056124423958,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.17577101416768734,0.5032342194782021,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,0.6794399981043447,0.3523384946969568,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.2041858068109224,0.5057375178050741,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,0.9265561005269862,2.787877941140274,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,0.1429086877972998,0.9964164922015784,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.29020249758040095,0.9570968805355589,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.10754752830892574,0.9644054236816136,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.1672595680203038,1.1618016462067449,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.20438133193058122,1.720699623029652,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,3.2807996016940812,1.8855224996685838,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.17571126173470455,0.4722121817407388,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,0.6601262687364323,2.236320644218399,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.20414288556025928,0.47551726731214466,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,0.9291541015500298,2.6187203903371854,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,0.6746087947855496,0.3406957935260354,11,13,13,1.0
 Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.33228586127163234,0.221044549
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ARIMA,0.023975762112696596,0.024774368500219062,nan,nan,0.25101952998068583,nan,nan,0.15484108664271443,nan,nan,0.09684881581675826,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ARIMA,1.0296741533950675,0.9984829788420667,nan,nan,0.10361296682289167,nan,nan,1.0147286107107987,nan,nan,0.8082927970302988,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.7232125153501406,0.7923220063009001,nan,nan,0.6961902869046782,nan,nan,0.8504190233938448,nan,nan,0.5428553014372848,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,6.098276508907677,0.00018013726714472805,nan,nan,0.00013935451766122244,nan,nan,2.4694688718239957,nan,nan,0.018082460109094207,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,8.55998226466887,18.20404716064542,nan,nan,0.019397731887557744,nan,nan,2.9257447367582956,nan,nan,3.945031456837376,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ARIMA,0.41946174479404164,0.3887520067886783,nan,nan,0.12900699451842257,nan,nan,0.6476586637991046,nan,nan,0.4079750467727446,Web,1,7

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.350037+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.108434+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.117972+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.240134+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.004568087077043557,0.004568087077043557,nan,nan,0.1019209742528152,nan,nan,0.0675876251768292,nan,nan,0.07371692886298616,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.03022152236565098,0.03022152236565098,nan,nan,0.01838861164214259,nan,nan,0.1738433845898399,nan,nan,0.17612253472655737,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.8102304159422345,0.8102304159422345,nan,nan,0.6696798883371339,nan,nan,0.9001279997546097,nan,nan,0.5943882512463644,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,5.006894428519889,5.006894428519889,nan,nan,0.023232890941478585,nan,nan,2.2376090875128054,nan,nan,2.336635245986499,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,3.0102227687076364,3.0102227687076364,nan,nan,0.003940912651454766,nan,nan,1.7349993569761448,nan,nan,0.7942351511510204,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,0.5379146607901764,0.5379146607901764,nan,nan,0.17100514688638668,nan,nan,0.7334266567218404,nan,nan,0.48842848142456025,Web,1,7

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.213255+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.027665+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.276189+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.279134+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.3455539255669464,0.345
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.02624241179707966,0.02624241179707966,nan,nan,0.22084257001627458,nan,nan,0.16199509806497128,nan,nan,0.11193019022038148,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.022761806256580336,0.022761806256580336,nan,nan,0.015331804674808422,nan,nan,0.15087016357312116,nan,nan,0.1583952154287786,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.7552138434186063,0.7552138434186063,nan,nan,0.7634659208176218,nan,nan,0.8690304041968878,nan,nan,0.5678434968597075,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,4.769109037922699,4.769109037922699,nan,nan,0.022673924763997395,nan,nan,2.1838289855029167,nan,nan,2.247535295384893,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,3.0020969012581866,3.0020969012581866,nan,nan,0.003938793819488803,nan,nan,1.7326560250835095,nan,nan,0.7942074993333476,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.4719500001866968,0.4719500001866968,nan,nan,0.16251649824562261,nan,nan,0.6869861717579887,nan,nan,0.5467640302159011,Web,1,7

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.268436+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.061861+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.335610+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.298680+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/dataset_eval_intervals.json

@@ -10,5 +10,6 @@
     "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5": 3600,
     "open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m": 3600,
     "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count": 3600,
-    "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060": 900
+    "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060": 900,
+    "wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews": 86400
 }

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,7.485363061070757,7.0695469094028
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ETS,0.0746625808527996,0.07381970536044431,nan,nan,0.46006090604102673,nan,nan,0.27324454404946424,nan,nan,0.18347574961588958,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ETS,1.2657424086068179,1.2371938424364712,nan,nan,0.11494288800331992,nan,nan,1.1250521803928997,nan,nan,0.8879355258156113,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,0.7622428758180403,0.8151351844680578,nan,nan,0.6592816996279506,nan,nan,0.8730652185364163,nan,nan,0.560999674348257,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,4.733472298988048,5.0434394696321965,nan,nan,0.023316875382897118,nan,nan,2.1756544530297197,nan,nan,2.2234021520525395,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,2.60951152486656,2.5555100409445135,nan,nan,0.005595832905559699,nan,nan,1.6153982558077002,nan,nan,1.1349112035633127,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ETS,0.5074210195682924,0.45386653897851287,nan,nan,0.15015696096508702,nan,nan,0.7123349068860043,nan,nan,0.46371001820340635,Web,1,7

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.316609+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.096054+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.463637+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.321365+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.14372890600255536,0.1437
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.006875451035150713,0.006875451035150713,nan,nan,0.13224156932716488,nan,nan,0.0829183395585724,nan,nan,0.08971395358858661,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.03266933398710628,0.03266933398710628,nan,nan,0.01878769092839144,nan,nan,0.18074660159213585,nan,nan,0.18228414270623136,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.791351220951885,0.791351220951885,nan,nan,0.6814923929319413,nan,nan,0.8895792381524453,nan,nan,0.5917435173406599,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,5.950878807566948,5.950878807566948,nan,nan,0.025278435224368248,nan,nan,2.4394423148676725,nan,nan,2.249991532518113,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,3.1928149894709166,3.1928149894709166,nan,nan,0.004583214102939878,nan,nan,1.7868449819362946,nan,nan,0.9159819394164409,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moirai-2.0,0.48766161312112155,0.48766161312112155,nan,nan,0.162052999946506,nan,nan,0.6983277261580851,nan,nan,0.4355676130387057,Web,1,7

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.260258+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.044466+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.538781+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.344599+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.493630847038398,1.70
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.017460728356688507,0.016887188643017515,nan,nan,0.19520389795995652,nan,nan,0.13213904932565734,nan,nan,0.07998465835693735,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.47028811563883255,0.47128490378475324,nan,nan,0.06992728321655306,nan,nan,0.6857755577729733,nan,nan,0.5282496082538112,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.7282052411227319,0.7756597725288321,nan,nan,0.6963780498305199,nan,nan,0.853349424985294,nan,nan,0.5455312335932018,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,4.895391546734725,5.209934959646932,nan,nan,0.02369929453262785,nan,nan,2.212553173764356,nan,nan,2.2602337332734797,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,3.0708855309959375,3.006504065040653,nan,nan,0.003930817610062893,nan,nan,1.7523942281906595,nan,nan,0.7914259368697338,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moving-Average,0.5225479238151219,0.4638223057159223,nan,nan,0.15401827526707126,nan,nan,0.7228747635760443,nan,nan,0.46633423707628346,Web,1,7

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.287979+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.082730+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.589770+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.367643+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@
     "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:17.838053+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:11.791941+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:51.834910+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:48.339460+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 4,
+    "task_count": 3,
     "issued_tasks": 1,
     "issued_forecasts": 12,
     "resolved_forecasts": 12,
@@ -19,15 +19,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.213255+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.027665+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.276189+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.279134+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -38,15 +38,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.240359+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.034427+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.945091+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.525085+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -57,15 +57,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.246235+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.037957+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.871951+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.500666+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -76,15 +76,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.251818+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.040965+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:24.004089+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.543716+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -95,15 +95,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.260258+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.044466+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.538781+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.344599+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -114,15 +114,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.268436+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.061861+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.335610+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.298680+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -133,15 +133,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.273468+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.065287+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.799880+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.482821+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -152,15 +152,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.283055+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.078294+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.726073+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.427793+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -171,15 +171,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.287979+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.082730+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.589770+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.367643+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -190,15 +190,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.316609+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.096054+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.463637+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.321365+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -209,15 +209,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.350037+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.108434+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.117972+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.240134+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -228,15 +228,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.360875+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.118514+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.660918+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 60,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.393621+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -262,7 +262,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-29T00:37:37.122147+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-22502ecae11878ad9d46.json

@@ -0,0 +1,103 @@
+{
+  "source_task_name": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260728t225000z",
+  "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+  "domain": "Hydrology",
+  "frequency": "15min",
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+    "2026-07-28T15:10:00",
+    "2026-07-28T15:25:00",
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+    "2026-07-28T23:55:00",
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+    "2026-07-29T00:55:00",
+    "2026-07-29T01:10:00"
+  ],
+  "context_start": "2026-07-28 14:55",
+  "context_end": "2026-07-29 01:10",
+  "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-29T01:08:45.962971Z",
+  "task_id": "future-22502ecae11878ad9d46",
+  "issued_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:55.337360+00:00",
+  "status": "open",
+  "scored_models": [],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+}

results/prequential/tasks/future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0.json

@@ -99,7 +99,23 @@
   "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:08.376654Z",
   "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
   "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
-  "status": "open",
-  "scored_models": [],
-  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+  "status": "resolved",
+  "scored_models": [
+    "ARIMA",
+    "Chronos-2",
+    "Chronos-Bolt",
+    "ETS",
+    "Moirai-2.0",
+    "Moving-Average",
+    "Seasonal-Naive",
+    "Sundial",
+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
+    "TimesFM-2.5",
+    "Toto-1.0"
+  ],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+  "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.563287+00:00",
+  "target_start": "2026-07-28T18:40:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00"
 }

results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4220830567678604,1.4
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.021964487461018273,0.021964487461018273,nan,nan,0.15292908855273898,nan,nan,0.1482042086481294,nan,nan,0.09176957303480657,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.05446273032547061,0.05446273032547061,nan,nan,0.019720447064865965,nan,nan,0.23337251407453838,nan,nan,0.14723236289593666,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4996367379063997,1.4996367379063997,nan,nan,0.7920828592703594,nan,nan,1.2245965612831027,nan,nan,0.9727963862627943,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,4.970430107526883,4.970430107526883,nan,nan,0.02314814814814815,nan,nan,2.2294461436704145,nan,nan,1.572502680002197,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,3.006504065040653,3.006504065040653,nan,nan,0.003930817610062893,nan,nan,1.7339273528728512,nan,nan,1.2423628484550617,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.1956686926031785,1.1956686926031785,nan,nan,0.24653455434324129,nan,nan,1.0934663655564256,nan,nan,0.8509378537691182,Web,1,7

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.360875+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.118514+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.660918+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.393621+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Sundial,0.8427959919452709,0.72880537
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Sundial,0.07240789929541203,0.034247198292841646,nan,nan,0.3187960858696557,nan,nan,0.26908715929120813,nan,nan,0.1350895598036612,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Sundial,0.04147564649132133,0.042493546432574324,nan,nan,0.02001445950916341,nan,nan,0.20365570576667213,nan,nan,0.15088829003761098,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.7807086606349478,0.7757135753093496,nan,nan,0.8357156827887059,nan,nan,0.8835771956286264,nan,nan,0.5737344692976855,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,7.161069762774662,6.370524072840986,nan,nan,0.026174097885320217,nan,nan,2.6760175191456916,nan,nan,2.442948058157761,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,3.3817427434002028,3.1166905541326115,nan,nan,0.004201388675628384,nan,nan,1.8389515337279019,nan,nan,0.8503095594453434,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Sundial,0.3632078483298184,0.3563015156678547,nan,nan,0.1391300563020866,nan,nan,0.602667278296921,nan,nan,0.44954022702632723,Web,1,7

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.283055+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.078294+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.726073+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.427793+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -108,5 +108,5 @@ us_births/D/short,TabPFN-TS,112759.78666666668,112759.78666666668,215.285703125,
 us_births/M/short,TabPFN-TS,59338602.666666664,59338602.666666664,6332.360677083333,0.7153333155562595,0.019422224412361785,0.019690368324518204,4.7156280861706295,7703.155370798817,0.0239259480622513,0.01966826908953116,0.015286944232309424,Healthcare,1
 us_births/W/short,TabPFN-TS,1737954.0,1737954.0,983.3291015625,0.8942316441355983,0.013318025640078954,0.013351580926350184,6.532085345899004,1318.3148334142345,0.0178959945969944,0.01334859613394065,0.010610700543554966,Healthcare,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.7849221031196626,0.7849221031196626,nan,nan,0.6780399486512959,nan,nan,0.8859582964901128,nan,nan,0.6960188756063207,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,4.982670265841826,4.982670265841826,nan,nan,0.02317663122106482,nan,nan,2.232189567631259,nan,nan,2.232189407480009,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,3.005682175642375,3.005682175642375,nan,nan,0.003931806072499018,nan,nan,1.733690334414533,nan,nan,0.7916307492459745,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TabPFN-TS,1.0318417053002116,1.0318417053002116,nan,nan,0.21346065016808555,nan,nan,1.0157960943517215,nan,nan,0.8543722734226411,Web,1,7

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.273468+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.065287+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.799880+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.482821+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.161
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.006262990376178233,0.004554783835561518,nan,nan,0.09627439894456198,nan,nan,0.07913905721057228,nan,nan,0.10022450213355703,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.06269121952817955,0.10589695801141052,nan,nan,0.033732113336197196,nan,nan,0.25038214698372474,nan,nan,0.1887512228581642,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.7736671660082207,0.9192549938039831,nan,nan,0.6858045973238216,nan,nan,0.8795835184951004,nan,nan,0.6374611819871363,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,4.988442317590863,4.980749238333547,nan,nan,0.023172011198820893,nan,nan,2.233482105948213,nan,nan,2.3119977010009602,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,3.0040916827348085,2.999761357062112,nan,nan,0.003943338311970887,nan,nan,1.7332315721607452,nan,nan,0.7987589498784374,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.38719216672060525,0.341005570724447,nan,nan,0.12667853599052806,nan,nan,0.6222476731339421,nan,nan,0.5343002043100503,Web,1,7

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.246235+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.037957+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.871951+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.500666+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.1330410943866506,0.1330410943
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TiRex,0.0027620856067215142,0.0027620856067215142,nan,nan,0.0785130454542927,nan,nan,0.05255554782058231,nan,nan,0.08149323675215601,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TiRex,0.06152528541441301,0.06152528541441301,nan,nan,0.025145317063173283,nan,nan,0.2480429104296533,nan,nan,0.21547322137758032,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.7237618079022049,0.7237618079022049,nan,nan,0.6982327102959812,nan,nan,0.850741916154485,nan,nan,0.5667071365175703,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,4.9765961267875625,4.9765961267875625,nan,nan,0.023162493293668016,nan,nan,2.2308285740476705,nan,nan,2.3369045829656883,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,3.008671345983993,3.008671345983993,nan,nan,0.003936306846577777,nan,nan,1.7345522033032021,nan,nan,0.9798782697597327,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TiRex,0.5500816371095917,0.5500816371095917,nan,nan,0.16152377391214015,nan,nan,0.7416748863953745,nan,nan,0.5062535723576331,Web,1,7

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.240359+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.034427+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:23.945091+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.525085+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.2061994614582545,0.2026127
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.150750383270116,0.004939613297587732,nan,nan,0.09535892261593037,nan,nan,0.3882658667332425,nan,nan,0.07054306522652543,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.07401720791630814,0.04597913287011668,nan,nan,0.02153606086089947,nan,nan,0.27206103711540197,nan,nan,0.18626719621804055,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.8168623027780804,0.8057370308350262,nan,nan,0.7073522246638566,nan,nan,0.9038043498335689,nan,nan,0.6030226294874921,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,6.9821115403600915,6.9814512865627085,nan,nan,0.027392714700581116,nan,nan,2.6423685474134926,nan,nan,1.8807474375379358,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,3.1066490125910557,3.203456089860421,nan,nan,0.004601083822581364,nan,nan,1.7625688674747026,nan,nan,1.0098113623904836,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Toto-1.0,1.4142901830281045,0.7431608109672617,nan,nan,0.20031694349088386,nan,nan,1.1892393295834547,nan,nan,0.5963496809202035,Web,1,7

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T00:36:08.251818+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T01:20:44.040965+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-ca44b41bc2d89bf3fd53",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T14:46:47.295637+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T00:30:24.004089+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 60,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-487c3a801d5926f8eac0",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T18:31:53.410654+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T01:17:54.543716+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]