Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:36.105843+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:36.776704+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,33 +13,33 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27470,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2711,
+  "num_model_releases": 27482,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2712,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
-      "num_model_releases": 192,
-      "num_unique_releases": 16,
+      "num_model_releases": 180,
+      "num_unique_releases": 15,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 24 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2490,
-      "num_unique_releases": 208,
+      "num_model_releases": 2478,
+      "num_unique_releases": 207,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 27009,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2641,
+      "num_model_releases": 27007,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2640,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 5082
+    "prequential-v1": 5094
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,1.8210813784906639,0.7583985757263026,0.1787988437430433,0.575549155970565,38.272505383211985,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875,5.152372709073252,-0.005701855772165143,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,1.6915835962675538,0.6842515188648749,0.21456429790897547,0.5571242989950631,41.50382434545396,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875,5.112894560131202,-0.22792407799438733,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,1.6738016698912834,0.6701488488021362,0.1636948247675756,0.5594253989725017,37.191502114099436,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875,5.191523409010565,-0.005701855772165143,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,1.7822506916768575,0.776053794174502,0.3573983216166375,0.5852122008908484,35.93311266366762,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125,5.076264617802805,-0.22792407799438733,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,1.992102048275743,0.9014367045793212,0.6643292358510314,0.7444831461052475,25.164963103339414,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125,5.321482376109296,0.43874258867227933,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,1.821979881654677,0.8217318743867423,0.8465283839649577,0.6187499454887514,29.728955769228907,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125,5.214846611697422,0.2165203664500571,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,1.7341936263114894,0.801946320574575,0.8292633447109835,0.5790853411440076,20.166656707455395,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125,4.594139042785394,0.0222222222222222,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,3.5908876538556838,1.3776399825760381,1.409954734849979,0.9970524464152852,0.0,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875,7.610972129254165,0.2306339720445505,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,2.745677254223021,1.2322260092847312,1.4148785033913536,1.0361022324786568,-1.9950404121886156,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875,5.335389426690231,0.2867932033426877,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,2.1127106256593646,0.9959666449710249,0.6346011116951693,0.8883470957030174,10.361285177654382,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875,4.202001295476568,0.3276314775611682,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,2.258040136273178,1.0802910700653243,0.7531012440330193,0.6136209339185948,0.9737511961191881,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125,5.680150152460374,-0.08888888888888886,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,4.098294772972814,1.347205515057049,0.4990585423474385,1.1062281421779516,-7.710671406026408,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875,5.024888953844267,0.2165203664500571,0.0,7,16,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,1.808274581877517,0.7541018025310731,0.12017302373025829,0.5813747999157471,39.405397167103445,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336,5.167484036663835,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,1.718008547873821,0.7022913635292937,0.15576382054101393,0.581726001005236,40.3502325252203,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336,5.128006929874348,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,1.6668732140092701,0.6692035984848993,0.10558493318630056,0.5577649791642719,37.984738309779964,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336,5.206632868180415,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,1.7938181512739422,0.7857360674138404,0.29985104007334834,0.5984852829212491,35.63121867131024,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332,5.091376652779707,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,2.0359677338815,0.927826497240174,0.611162085278546,0.7684333785363968,23.225077414663268,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332,5.336594871851234,0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,1.810470852658596,0.8177982602620683,0.7724885618660312,0.6225350416356162,30.833254266534308,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332,5.229958645023271,0.11111111111111112,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,1.710723321291271,0.7911563253688911,0.7521545123904557,0.5709443394008741,22.04990661489274,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332,4.609169394370018,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,3.7121190336789454,1.4129644626717337,1.3744012456369505,1.0144733287918026,0.0,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,7.8787208475394905,0.17196917305612958,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,2.734786218878874,1.230623267732609,1.3537580067077108,1.0376250691021374,-0.2965578233242278,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,5.3495752953017295,0.22222222222222224,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,2.1258827889154577,1.0085749328090097,0.5753212515906637,0.8956293113735542,9.963224932946058,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,4.216242278550589,0.22222222222222224,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,3.1162086711324903,1.3210315193998283,0.7090188621933136,0.6708512449599914,-10.769586008248366,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332,5.780728623668021,-0.11111111111111116,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,4.151531846993245,1.3793285991209363,0.4542973878215917,1.1240191646798674,-10.114460742695922,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,5.039829330368013,0.11111111111111112,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-28T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,13.965867211150945,0.8769047297264856,0.15924513319203168,0.6395708392919487,23.523103368333206,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875,135.6481692148932,0.04030665566399295,0.3076923076923077,13,2594,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.13223833821281,0.8807498759762359,0.19492442160539306,0.6727230680564441,24.775559984242708,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875,138.3566674102413,0.0329179052252993,0.15384615384615385,13,2581,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.014394269493703,0.8770675474876823,0.13716838664988013,0.7190603056778841,24.037264321411655,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875,135.89818351849863,0.03868286312963279,0.23076923076923078,13,2575,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.40597026396565,0.924103963335503,0.24024047577074353,0.669966907285468,22.160611092564302,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125,154.9070434880426,0.07050885101383207,0.15384615384615385,13,1893,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.043155982009317,0.9716873719304828,0.20245946165444018,0.8168526000735381,18.55117207335236,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125,162.12619479261775,0.049281926117451406,0.15384615384615385,13,1784,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.663643471700023,0.9704303634058691,0.27575273601569034,0.7178955313251596,11.550945021229845,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125,155.83588707792657,0.029747918721986406,0.15384615384615385,13,1880,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.082649888350854,1.0107407523942291,0.22424773747013418,0.7637866683208773,16.179929124600225,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125,149.93811224261205,0.007849118547481852,0.3076923076923077,13,2132,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.797053866147527,1.237112260376873,0.3683134898953131,0.9636629717028751,0.0,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875,140.82121626585806,0.0317383214355878,0.3076923076923077,13,2421,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.527668635744998,1.141427866355708,0.3437481842069488,0.9172515701803144,3.1726076924117104,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875,141.05432204829597,0.0800411660375037,0.15384615384615385,13,2414,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.45180334656472,1.1440762682530876,0.346692696217444,0.9012327277398797,1.9631767042692898,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875,141.05753632545913,0.06055216859646177,0.15384615384615385,13,2414,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.194287867207912,1.657554395203044,0.28232009864294483,0.7003685852407038,-19.02393703032315,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125,211.80380136782907,-0.005906456617354857,0.15384615384615385,13,1907,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.22877889260024,1.4007528885179552,0.31518167862268176,1.11125979789524,-3.36927460966771,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875,145.94980775765163,0.07325937768749934,0.15384615384615385,13,2414,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T02:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,13.965856480708904,0.8767843509418376,0.159147140365375,0.6395687700012173,23.518157493333014,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336,135.64899234933822,0.03980259057123304,0.3076923076923077,13,2593,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.132439802931405,0.8807100093997093,0.19483780686466484,0.6727442659523477,24.76291855235178,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336,138.35747840359966,0.032466430890311204,0.15384615384615385,13,2580,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.014325503341205,0.8769352065043444,0.13710526908623127,0.7190019095322847,24.0320575173346,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336,135.89896396534613,0.038020481715147006,0.23076923076923078,13,2574,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.40577060403353,0.9240201628916889,0.24010369730368095,0.6699656888386569,22.158074561322067,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332,154.90692440908407,0.06991764863931084,0.15384615384615385,13,1894,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.043077997949933,0.971666485911271,0.20229440461106352,0.8168492587772711,18.542454845992587,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332,162.12601983164225,0.04903927606150785,0.15384615384615385,13,1785,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.663243195883503,0.970235535087193,0.2755508102147842,0.7178169240956804,11.56024352071567,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332,155.83594190241448,0.028354885423969415,0.15384615384615385,13,1881,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.082235696363707,1.0105337096048648,0.224092675483859,0.7636421638594998,16.193506881339275,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332,149.93822767852086,0.006506489850014443,0.3076923076923077,13,2133,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.796215106869624,1.2368065098596903,0.3682738401190626,0.9634176982284719,0.0,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,140.8218610301305,0.03159992428393744,0.3076923076923077,13,2420,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.527137132080423,1.1411113335839944,0.3436051448975921,0.917022185111562,3.18158477735107,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,141.05526404943066,0.0791457580439104,0.15384615384615385,13,2413,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.451044291040159,1.143754242476013,0.3465648320019247,0.9010506524606761,1.967912352781578,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,141.05813997800277,0.06020181470735534,0.15384615384615385,13,2413,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.197127243198736,1.65830845118174,0.2822474769888871,0.7005463802242373,-19.073508989811653,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332,211.8058086365747,-0.0049365942079384285,0.15384615384615385,13,1908,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.19122838247044,1.3971419254368054,0.31481948371016855,1.1083718603969672,-3.3290212414397695,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,145.83095400292336,0.07391561168250199,0.15384615384615385,13,2413,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,127.31382925694301,1.8251312288261077,0.1579826192705059,1.6195295626068464,16.23456956933936,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875,449.0906254371108,-0.15011746386590108,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,128.1505288298389,1.7958080217986028,0.15872385999769717,1.9189505848112853,19.401633054601287,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875,457.9168980375574,-0.14473868306167245,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,127.19382430917177,1.8032506102853842,0.13967434555642547,1.6751779844778556,16.19200053078547,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875,449.1038597237786,-0.17516652075237402,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,127.25375789051287,1.841780154121056,0.23706918716321942,1.6183027409579709,13.416372210699393,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125,449.2214879222547,-0.08600276552457009,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,127.4282327248456,1.8955221829330176,0.22121322966128532,1.7671049550596474,10.463526667083052,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125,449.19821158317154,-0.05654104220885821,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,127.25571519098206,1.8624644306101905,0.2647473988257368,1.651990179117268,4.196171755515009,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125,449.29142294104514,-0.06547681056521544,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,127.34667256920999,1.8573922590739889,0.25072471182598277,1.6602379924364201,13.15159959487009,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125,449.13785940633136,-0.15070103673074914,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,127.8694343791203,2.06396675469374,0.3730860421505678,1.684356302692015,0.0,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875,449.7085815124823,-0.1115003920035143,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,127.67251423747724,2.0490818683551137,0.3938476320362798,1.8581327338157911,-6.929285080105297,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875,449.4150602531645,-0.0669489516030037,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,127.78273495629765,2.127048931252291,0.3168898997602756,1.8599576746920432,-11.005356913090397,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875,449.2787585109345,0.05003673038810727,0.09090909090909091,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,171.86439387702606,2.430767286578687,0.22415504217374752,1.5328377619995137,-25.44188062496714,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125,575.9461956358836,-0.09725780904255837,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,129.25192841513487,2.4540334285293266,0.4388641130559093,2.181032482637382,-19.102682652515142,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875,451.14659526267843,0.0538331961825734,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T03:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,127.310392401309,1.8244669389024906,0.15606175816520027,1.6200755224279837,16.18198023035571,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336,449.0846883439466,-0.1488536426624994,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,128.14964480989582,1.7964762808748391,0.15695525227970206,1.9209177724846007,19.205350524970978,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336,457.91059101478186,-0.13803078921242726,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,127.19045710250447,1.8026430010302468,0.13862106541968347,1.674886332569698,16.12468742816281,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336,449.09773269292515,-0.17367856374325696,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,127.25231735018697,1.842204422094909,0.2354717753548863,1.6195613471464503,13.242480731168412,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332,449.2151593886305,-0.07677334524937729,0.09090909090909091,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,127.42861207466322,1.896955401040926,0.21954422226539172,1.768991860457623,10.196658565278453,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332,449.1909787402581,-0.0496669700589208,0.0,11,206,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,127.25195732014413,1.8613983307796824,0.2622594327407731,1.6522153143057756,4.181754890844571,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332,449.2862912619467,-0.08521378120862416,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,127.34046007287476,1.8547792520242152,0.24762909150331483,1.6587394717055106,13.315031687416694,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332,449.13528975740246,-0.17118170548727998,0.09090909090909091,11,206,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,127.86617193112626,2.0637282085891524,0.37312332490032035,1.685154556807288,0.0,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,449.70223676352975,-0.10039404348030709,0.0,11,206,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,127.6661368617535,2.046784970271737,0.39146445381504036,1.8572471372501596,-6.815754031108884,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,449.40987981759156,-0.09157606722328189,0.0,11,206,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,127.78030432375067,2.1268950331878838,0.3151496665542603,1.8604894434372312,-11.116553538279165,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,449.27322832673605,0.06347715647961846,0.09090909090909091,11,206,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,171.9202018558117,2.444008214730111,0.2239773279066488,1.5374953750830935,-26.055293172176224,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332,576.0246805356002,-0.05716388047139427,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,129.2534419000282,2.4560471962028774,0.4379700853700788,2.1825876298442215,-19.43448052002675,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,451.139875609684,0.06369963327708632,0.0,11,206,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,13.962131529395178,0.8758565912979867,0.15942027993493896,0.6393696358231771,23.53230660663379,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875,135.64490477190313,0.03736412906414161,0.23076923076923078,13,2656,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.126844017665132,0.8787719950698403,0.19484569806411792,0.6721495240354004,24.746831456361672,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875,138.35220629331764,0.03651394193034754,0.23076923076923078,13,2642,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.009441919231897,0.875518299364783,0.13718830201654234,0.7175371893050195,23.96059477151562,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875,135.8970975934368,0.037815863350239606,0.23076923076923078,13,2637,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.40597026396565,0.924103963335503,0.24024047577074353,0.669966907285468,22.160611092564302,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125,154.9070434880426,0.07050885101383207,0.15384615384615385,13,1893,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.04263642513193,0.9714707834820935,0.2024562289113183,0.816727760036938,18.65811349772514,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125,162.12549632644956,0.050544253533624954,0.15384615384615385,13,1785,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.663643471700023,0.9704303634058691,0.27575273601569034,0.7178955313251596,11.550945021229845,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125,155.83588707792657,0.029747918721986406,0.15384615384615385,13,1880,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.08298045832332,1.011195100507568,0.22429026967698018,0.7641395841371895,16.17295228005376,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125,149.93762558892973,0.006358870903388065,0.3076923076923077,13,2133,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.786710767189113,1.234049619950107,0.36834357523363154,0.9618508824132945,0.0,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875,140.8161927877798,0.041851483264521476,0.3076923076923077,13,2491,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.527811690325779,1.1420656846201416,0.3441214233516631,0.9181136630569064,3.014454273285279,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875,141.05576273996058,0.06834093689100204,0.15384615384615385,13,2482,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.46328919246388,1.1472630089576956,0.3472823415169973,0.9039694329744888,1.7537046629740762,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875,141.07005244675403,0.0437720467749737,0.15384615384615385,13,2482,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.194287867207912,1.657554395203044,0.28232009864294483,0.7003685852407038,-19.02393703032315,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125,211.80380136782907,-0.005906456617354857,0.15384615384615385,13,1907,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.258198284085037,1.4080175966378756,0.31629369115209366,1.1171636392194233,-3.7804636507104563,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875,145.95945125807864,0.05093484955370449,0.15384615384615385,13,2482,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,13.96195772880159,0.8757766724937958,0.15929695233871624,0.6393549719733895,23.53760579061037,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336,135.64483788572,0.03664955788197404,0.23076923076923078,13,2657,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.12674849152316,0.8787371551968552,0.19473179395854825,0.6721835215087653,24.746653859513344,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336,138.35209841174117,0.036115611407990425,0.23076923076923078,13,2643,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.009264053001598,0.8754372706563718,0.13711126184890696,0.7174532276910704,23.965539838823762,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336,135.89702639732238,0.0371083613000103,0.23076923076923078,13,2638,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.40577060403353,0.9240201628916889,0.24010369730368095,0.6699656888386569,22.158074561322067,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332,154.90692440908407,0.06991764863931084,0.15384615384615385,13,1894,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.042558441072547,0.9714498974628817,0.20229117186794163,0.8167244187406711,18.64939627036537,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332,162.12532136547406,0.050301603477681395,0.15384615384615385,13,1786,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.663243195883503,0.970235535087193,0.2755508102147842,0.7178169240956804,11.56024352071567,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332,155.83594190241448,0.028354885423969415,0.15384615384615385,13,1881,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.082566266336173,1.0109880577182033,0.22413520769070502,0.7639950796758119,16.18653003679281,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332,149.93774102483857,0.005016242205920656,0.3076923076923077,13,2134,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.78648721245838,1.233991897097952,0.3682970249417845,0.9618288456549291,0.0,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,140.81593806429825,0.04129867553806629,0.3076923076923077,13,2492,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.527511679240995,1.1419147590800647,0.3439661045305767,0.9180241826541369,3.025822161127031,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,141.05575038935442,0.06714159682441595,0.15384615384615385,13,2483,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.463115007649703,1.1471887519854431,0.34715046499125274,0.9039350433500416,1.757181450504034,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,141.06995784798232,0.04310991797379785,0.15384615384615385,13,2483,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.197127243198736,1.65830845118174,0.2822474769888871,0.7005463802242373,-19.073508989811653,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332,211.8058086365747,-0.0049365942079384285,0.15384615384615385,13,1908,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.258213867881064,1.4080444466297553,0.31620273791580167,1.1171832042264302,-3.787035765600176,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336,145.9592886761525,0.0507517542552361,0.15384615384615385,13,2483,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332
+12,Official,ETS,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332
+12,Official,ETS,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332
+12,Official,ETS,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689990565347195,11,2651,13,33.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672614255113386,11,2642,13,33.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092269501162497,11,2637,13,33.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5782054847098806,11,1893,13,28.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5592857295422188,11,1782,13,30.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5235917377930005,11,1880,13,28.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5120699247765649,11,2131,13,30.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861458372203531,11,2482,13,33.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38018186593257575,11,2482,13,33.46875
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37481622561228495,11,2482,13,33.46875
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3738614124159794,11,1907,13,28.125
-12,Official,ETS,0.3663543498348339,11,2482,13,33.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689862278195161,11,2652,13,33.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6671023587141449,11,2643,13,33.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6093319894037929,11,2638,13,33.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.578018901448205,11,1894,13,28.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591742372257227,11,1783,13,30.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237310669101085,11,1881,13,28.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.512449675181334,11,2132,13,30.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3861636811274494,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3804415163023688,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37485905194428004,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37362989073307307,11,1908,13,28.208333333333332
+12,Official,ETS,0.36611140319000446,11,2483,13,33.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -813,6 +813,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.923393
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.284992+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.455486+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.170943818034101,2.042288867431368,0.12888000045812045,1.6820898251603051,-89.20372192289841,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.716483+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,40.83822498936772,6.390479245672246,0.12168112751723166,4.991680555454278,12.492696875668852,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.394597+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7701051557926232,0.8775563547673866,0.340511126277645,0.5710876673827213,32.1653251645523,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.819691+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.374034+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.806906+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5783061775160325,0.7604644485549817,0.02064526731642673,1.2872306089506549,-2.3030728317160256,True
@@ -3351,6 +3352,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.931834
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.291688+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.460431+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.39123219058568903,0.6254855638507487,0.039837547378325074,0.4580026623308351,-24.35205746591007,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.720301+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,29.328550211123428,5.415584013855147,0.12684682771587488,5.1789358701139605,28.315757448071725,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.482262+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6776350496572086,0.8231859143943174,0.3179249682604239,0.6055594242050929,37.77642490082715,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.824336+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.427493+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.810412+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8730129669401422,0.9343516291740183,0.013450136958151069,0.7844222566628238,-22.503962237364565,True
@@ -5707,6 +5709,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.939517
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.296235+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.466370+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2614221838612299,0.5112946155214525,0.029834433927759724,0.36158092474976405,-4.6896532352207725,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.725678+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,33.37539076252154,5.777143823942896,0.13523778431850195,5.04355026640964,22.26882732621328,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.528119+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6317047834657578,0.794798580437684,0.319226988224063,0.5780425233055712,40.744392577518035,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.828354+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.448121+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.818628+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6986573055876192,0.8358572279926872,0.011706709382080923,0.6663940098258891,-11.702461604850091,True
@@ -7831,6 +7834,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.946278
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.302625+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.472211+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,13.128310992399873,3.6233011180965726,0.23858061553508705,3.0301927283597716,-96.43879373079817,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.736140+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,29.069495192473852,5.391613412743337,0.12805493676674587,5.298715209167143,28.72328053690091,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.608162+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0914885321172088,1.0447432852702183,0.3907147724728696,0.6724813021093836,15.777566922224114,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.832017+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.487874+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.823985+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6471381825776809,0.8044489931485282,0.012054639146319324,0.7232436635130499,-7.909742380527625,True
@@ -10072,6 +10076,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.954274
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.308404+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.477519+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3492971688555868,0.5910136790765395,0.03453509232354764,0.4208199552959436,-18.950545175441437,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.742899+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,34.48002722697698,5.8719696207471115,0.13693095207125996,3.9265630334247468,20.71600031240316,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.645145+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.829377574266806,0.9107016933479404,0.3362087036722064,0.6712818921551524,28.802919746726545,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.835578+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.516431+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.829597+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.30816785285287224,0.5551286813459311,0.00745430610860504,0.5177131880550238,28.36937906914708,True
@@ -12206,6 +12211,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.961652
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.312626+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.483256+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.3423722369360267,1.158607887482226,0.07990313572585715,0.9500232221010657,-69.88040941623014,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.758031+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,52.69994532827627,7.259472799609918,0.17166407073394366,7.1529489148882215,-0.1914917466910569,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.702355+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5362114679784434,0.7322646160906885,0.3296550697286643,0.48306959036069586,47.34356441268484,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.839790+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.562483+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.834897+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.34181751195611204,0.5846516158842906,0.008819899970267981,0.5065878822944938,23.538090901191737,True
@@ -14690,6 +14696,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.969323
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.316893+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.493939+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2380009697790948,0.48785343063167524,0.035243225815500524,0.36453031453978224,0.0,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.766153+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,52.498498989759845,7.245584792807262,0.1696509349640021,6.903431878061449,0.0,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.751209+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.5004302530104183,1.2249205088537045,0.5787619239921872,1.0055182378667242,0.0,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.843538+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.594606+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.840008+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5522682255956322,0.7431475126753989,0.008859938442509175,0.48698678376365023,0.0,True
@@ -17039,6 +17046,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.976614
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.321319+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.681768432788878e-16,2.163739455846955e-08,,2.087364200910581e-08,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.499078+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5905674517943974,0.7684838656695385,0.045571977199065916,0.5560463511785046,-42.55128156414186,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.772440+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,49.69626711921793,7.049557937858085,0.1637008481349949,6.716268100727324,2.742050280298789,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.790126+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5732475008305224,0.7571310988399053,0.3730626888655392,0.5024168376063236,44.71199782427788,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.847040+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.929836787503007e-16,2.220323577207387e-08,,1.964594174276014e-08,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.648400+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.549672274836144e-16,2.1329960794235286e-08,,2.0767769360186398e-08,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.845139+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.687705579825327,0.829280157621854,0.011752397430344806,0.717863516897427,-10.922598012763274,True
@@ -19045,6 +19053,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.983568
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.326476+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.504276+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5239329567197472,0.7238321329698946,0.04220232356701537,0.545553956887063,-37.52713680233885,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.779555+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,42.59169124774339,6.526231013973026,0.151716303073881,6.460247929886967,10.418327818329722,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.813138+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.049037306100725,1.0242252223513757,0.35903704521638335,0.8504926113762031,17.705381082278564,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.850688+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.680854+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.850579+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2774558427329046,1.1302459213520324,0.016649895345160867,1.115126586811062,-39.633714705394645,True
@@ -21149,6 +21158,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.995505
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.341021+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.515580+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3051037875310499,0.552362007682507,0.033174889036431836,0.3954888529046477,-12.355409679027254,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.790382+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,32.126889017498875,5.668058663907677,0.1327593277983881,5.143391848770991,24.07269313851016,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.907333+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8657915285190199,0.9304791929532975,0.345429846088212,0.7154588343884143,26.82076251031683,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.857860+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.760773+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.860095+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8209276251729151,0.9060505643577046,0.013420903569117524,0.7329003178523114,-19.5645362186989,True
@@ -23791,6 +23801,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:16.989213
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.336436+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.509718+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7099048808631441,0.8425585326036074,0.0626425577213279,0.6094043319373831,-49.783837789830926,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.784794+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,36.71344541442391,6.059162104979855,0.13601019625353641,6.0643934701771975,17.693879088454963,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.840229+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6822150759945562,0.8259631202387648,0.3371452478361714,0.6117320693274902,37.48731716246682,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.853921+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.722722+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.855441+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8355275175827096,0.9140719433297959,0.015397951978898601,0.79716763215306,-20.410733595302332,True
@@ -26139,6 +26150,7 @@ future-0bfa9f6a146709aba2cf,2026-07-20T22:45:00+00:00,2026-07-21T09:55:17.003010
 future-0c15576039036796d45b,2026-07-14T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-15T15:48:03.346042+00:00,2026-07-15T14:59:54.424712+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0589746146942922,1.0290649224875428,,0.00027763896448757604,-100.0,False
 future-0c2242725d6e3ca6c5e3,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T08:17:10.524860+00:00,2026-07-17T08:51:54.666336+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.37888798183745664,0.6155387736263709,0.03556207593471684,0.4019547201838309,-22.83831015114938,True
 future-0d91bb331f2b76934945,2026-07-20T22:25:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:38:06.795556+00:00,2026-07-20T16:25:49.587102+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,45.83937400871016,6.7704781226077495,0.15760132690758344,6.116058660793387,6.77167888424157,True
+future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:06:14.944259+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,6.7496565615327775,2.5980101157487394,0.4428579336256222,0.990338817567063,-63.62631601971824,True
 future-0f42482e5d99417616f1,2026-07-18T06:05:00+00:00,2026-07-19T21:20:30.861768+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.236553+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.48628659511725e-06,0.0015767963074275796,,0.0002902923245124434,-100.0,False
 future-0fbad1f57007f37b49fb,2026-07-25T22:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:00.792632+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.790180+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.096686369417245e-09,5.564787839097952e-05,,0.00027683857946680354,-100.0,False
 future-0fd8f6490c8546bcd951,2026-07-18T16:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T16:12:34.865075+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.175929+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.12186835398068631,0.34909648233788654,0.002884299524658696,0.2792493956432642,63.84461022504426,True

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ ARIMA,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.63852089
 ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.224989505012516,0.8376872389949994,0.03753078258092905,0.6302451084156856,31.472996936085384,9.894620159763747,0.07644529383659818,0.2804556277713832,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.676857050690692,0.9482953842520914,0.45516115075163893,0.7414801600628518,3.093313252763524,3.8125426268499294,-0.29146968139773893,3.2361181388683506e-07,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.7032288939326719,1.2115706707260652,0.0946102123839448,0.945074865415258,-43.30653634279677,1.4433810484488727,-0.0180334907685702,0.754571057214523,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0916503227619407,1.0146347255455106,0.5465022594907215,0.6345709141123799,25.747175384249985,0.5374288690247903,0.3487335359675785,8.50228697321562e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.08938592017765,1.013669384906228,0.5450516177075309,0.6341238489945653,25.792373622139436,0.536199084992324,0.34012586155229246,1.9071800572108664e-09,142,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,176.82943253110346,3.238292212104805,0.9300127086811731,2.866427268768954,5.995225762398357,1734.6922285867222,0.24109452736318404,3.7176433164781903e-07,201,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6103921393088825,1.070203286080005,0.01005519166446684,0.7737355759657781,28.53003362108346,1.8967145492730757,0.07824267782426779,0.07107048183030118,240,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Chronos-2,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.7848
 Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.770662920708487,0.9383375365561323,0.04147426688621382,0.6664343471483456,32.51750738043405,9.969986449028195,0.026208503203261502,0.6962897689185866,102,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.021420096704319,0.7601464052316582,0.34268467491723437,0.5152385850105019,22.20062475012013,2.3428438544951105,-0.3470265106281347,8.456780624602227e-11,159,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3960585555804672,0.5790431846700701,0.04271482667689994,0.39893577500800953,14.66222017945875,0.3184370314998671,-0.11755341432760787,0.029949082098449084,155,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0413996920396353,0.9904559715658838,0.5363381411707965,0.6362508618104663,28.063020671756387,0.5273720647193769,0.3727987421383648,2.6193163766608677e-12,160,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0391402843229742,0.9894170271114018,0.5349815376123469,0.6360602317632279,28.131910063451926,0.5265025443384733,0.36350931677018633,7.691995824424643e-12,161,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,163.0786445171664,2.7575296546353294,0.032164514649742015,2.459315226148037,24.153863787143795,1669.9271699678038,0.22836661546338966,5.566426150045669e-07,217,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3590568061890482,0.9903873760658994,0.009904096481494432,0.7224803297054803,22.46278900129055,1.5862759252926775,0.21792674411223262,1.5690299334873387e-05,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.0
 Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.768843963278756,0.8902673165851895,0.03498639781627768,0.6413761405723531,39.70093271789535,11.382484507106362,0.07441016333938293,0.40932488546762036,58,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.523819771491744,0.6185176791541969,0.3808061056536098,0.4137400558279903,12.795230785816507,0.581730871421917,-0.4636422136422136,4.269587867818866e-13,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3987001203481794,0.5530554896629497,0.041572755643710595,0.4061900266783742,23.340723376709242,0.432410599970157,-0.22227682227682227,0.0005438741542448725,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2249135435449419,1.0835341487156682,0.5724419425603384,0.6945384373936527,28.051940779366433,0.5154818339422389,0.17383059418457647,0.00634405866011995,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2197099579302122,1.0810013805728789,0.5702207587503711,0.6935165434104239,28.17282127268216,0.5161945522851598,0.15572116131035557,0.014040647693432893,114,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,207.55094081899404,3.2129277848105926,0.5417025963198289,2.9298220372967236,28.498913012500537,1917.7559957883902,0.2633547807870717,5.573853014225799e-07,164,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9749087632969757,1.1589421102324862,0.010345623598231867,0.9027200636186677,24.844477994351482,2.632850870866263,0.10619430558574225,0.020514504061896748,215,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ ETS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,5.8669863198
 ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.972878454121812,0.853143992192325,0.04758814209444523,0.6729960300640387,6.483095468375056,9.382395081066424,0.14811275680840896,0.03651580906292498,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,3.846856252097679,1.0773483913908197,0.5160379131744395,0.8505321852031522,-0.250627635613973,27.20681351812713,-0.24295991778006165,2.0550353213759956e-05,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,17.337510213225286,3.4623709049940796,0.2783688872326554,2.8613860891495864,-79.59825386409274,29.455892218923594,-0.0695577501073422,0.22789018295126917,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0627208446524012,0.9951782002606023,0.5327837275609973,0.6363642991741855,27.90969100864625,0.5963471046096972,0.388855116514691,7.858078893788261e-12,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.062923434000745,0.995527250155036,0.5317832419617853,0.6366186442652785,27.8242535150799,0.5942335395698336,0.3864748776346019,8.860468670656982e-12,142,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,175.40237490991439,2.8938480593441502,0.0528771087242227,2.678601244948037,21.474295702151075,1734.8127526701887,0.16139303482587064,0.0006675563821811754,201,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3255523211137077,0.9454819086177181,0.008962348252692317,0.6918819039958242,31.696846495752407,1.6419744746228764,0.3060071558596447,1.189559507764937e-09,179,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.863
 Moirai-2.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.670225338703816,0.8791254469903079,0.03496247950075732,0.6108317841224591,37.06055843587799,11.37096795671203,0.09175920514319111,0.30456198913461274,59,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.47547175421648535,0.5911284984685183,0.34657001596175063,0.39862287201840146,15.510384264489803,0.5581746740873943,-0.35018963337547404,3.8282782387080044e-08,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4596497251098418,0.6019139260088127,0.045463166934756945,0.4453651428233059,13.463937883699375,0.465756317152148,-0.16666666666666663,0.00918741981446774,112,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1304647518983042,1.0370727626193432,0.5107380276441154,0.6731193099460583,32.26528489237877,0.5262881896601348,0.21098398169336388,0.0008290829887706363,115,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1278691727807912,1.0359833568497623,0.5092334645064265,0.6731034701375159,32.2323099862297,0.5247401631994546,0.20329835082458766,0.001214221215900907,116,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,205.20743537621107,3.169336051644282,0.5655617775837783,2.8135264796684654,28.665866913533197,1906.2236170419494,0.30397955458196424,6.120924778009835e-09,166,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.595777764036453,1.3562101026246272,0.01271889111785165,1.1329953562029307,13.473002609099206,2.906910608346005,-0.003781786568137362,0.9342444639752822,215,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ Moving-Average,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2
 Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.8914444303842557,1.068962110527693,0.06617696620566264,0.8956165091670224,16.219078657811732,9.585776068034434,0.03774486383182035,0.5941010151538975,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.4911726518655655,0.9796162863931354,0.4619319383127711,0.7616332272792946,-1.779155228455438,2.520696320441719,-0.3498458376156218,8.655173937908163e-10,140,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.8941136749312533,0.9040589310184801,0.06571722361625384,0.6420580649951123,-27.923074001144748,0.5279755324332177,0.12430227565478745,0.0311751555356117,137,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0900319304850437,1.0108731630728574,0.5722630682656018,0.6482504138732484,26.358443456810843,0.5749664615888548,0.36231003039513676,1.840340051391804e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0861317863828843,1.008911131051856,0.5705545612336516,0.6470871686372446,26.506225998753617,0.574805903709013,0.3467186095295175,9.244981045509393e-10,142,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,177.0190356579993,3.244023242180422,0.0701299890110646,3.022921792711426,3.863678210396116,1734.6785332141717,0.2881592039800995,1.2389812816479193e-09,201,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.108011234510908,1.5183312965350395,0.013715890820135591,1.0301377501059725,0.0,3.1904662194946947,-0.006737665724842427,0.8831373980138193,215,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3
 Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.907553326809399,1.1113168709918815,0.06395200154691993,0.8936284979553439,0.0,9.58160211148785,0.053763440860215055,0.4452669441695035,93,1.0,2026-07-03T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7532017652395215,1.044974394336836,0.46526155408279957,0.8630157021995427,0.0,2.6554133117162233,-0.3775075987841945,3.105581970162213e-11,141,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.5223443333775349,0.6751719888395882,0.04946972808987797,0.48277532689845176,0.0,0.3807782887448099,-0.12345287210409395,0.031705958862002934,138,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.9160184974416845,1.3322272910097313,0.6519855330675701,1.0464845716678126,0.0,1.0955635614361836,0.5279192887823394,1.148744327006388e-20,142,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.913112285942165,1.3314768939317172,0.6514734798572527,1.0461980938090638,0.0,1.0922521561758867,0.5207327883384221,2.768667622410759e-20,143,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,176.3761512526067,3.3152513069143597,0.08416583838327572,2.78089432765477,0.0,1730.379480775133,0.2883728567564352,1.171098544915019e-09,202,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.323207062028143,1.3654090653344653,0.013988832070442029,1.0748757864706302,3.696671623549243,2.076065277609487,-0.1643953769190961,0.0008353031599470442,187,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -100,7 +100,7 @@ Sundial,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.201397
 Sundial,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.881456278598701,1.0224167870279186,0.04675885085597254,0.7204555593446484,14.578590822390296,10.258215961261458,0.11796042617960426,0.13985682980676,73,1.0,2026-07-05T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.054992186384303,0.7580821340697509,0.37340606759500905,0.5277248689224906,17.225297718466496,2.450987061549282,-0.3882447021191523,1.9142930214824517e-10,123,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.48976451311655905,0.6413920305241586,0.04798019709437776,0.47110462082697313,7.637687132070183,0.4022893607708384,-0.09159663865546218,0.1379603855637,120,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.251693975777147,1.0962671878187695,0.5879786018429195,0.739115145342716,22.471632285721125,0.5135175973238089,0.19561290322580646,0.001215626874239255,125,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2463094799442371,1.0935756315570324,0.5862729199938929,0.7372365873448081,22.64814312332872,0.5150182641385935,0.17815873015873018,0.0030903428510241303,126,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,200.06282838588294,3.400519463760944,0.27859716200794377,3.0266944083901985,9.932205610605996,1847.9634846057363,0.2935285053929122,6.618675445409676e-09,177,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2924652831141397,0.9664427428421578,0.009427241559342393,0.8290658794304816,24.108108048992317,1.5164992416830831,0.3036698480978626,3.0075171480814273e-09,173,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8965
 TabPFN-TS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,3.0669307026933486,0.9634836711907595,0.03523961683690969,0.736313878115392,32.539994057587926,11.885777737268304,0.1264849755415793,0.1769092815963943,54,1.0,2026-07-06T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5157516384542906,0.6007336108772311,0.33706225175290916,0.493891344563285,11.758926767559108,0.7070839145137922,-0.3809251856082239,1.1844447764328179e-08,103,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.43903676142419146,0.6062637279898775,0.04572457479996947,0.4987213246926012,7.9735894941649725,0.4209513728032518,-0.24441855950300911,0.0002724013305386247,102,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1554855471617163,1.0527346385754788,0.5496779303164246,0.8550534807803529,29.491072472688508,0.4946942567215266,0.10791635548917103,0.1044931719451935,104,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.154471754389707,1.0524631203257253,0.5478623028392814,0.8550100439288849,29.37774851701149,0.49241976404003895,0.10476190476190475,0.1132380824293668,105,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,225.54023537207277,3.456358496101824,0.025747759683161803,3.265743762899393,21.97739892318502,1998.1239069872552,0.28176600441501104,2.83578554439002e-07,151,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5994120921013129,1.071465615789501,0.009887251026591262,0.7750211854507422,30.174673970948685,1.7836721042041281,0.05031468654407369,0.24674833844565747,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -126,7 +126,7 @@ TiRex,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.89179757
 TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.468994721394927,0.8596170375096616,0.037194240537534014,0.6036450284928152,41.50715153356337,9.60643761665164,0.0716831683168317,0.28815304090301486,101,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9493183057139502,0.7305680707486996,0.3259131651348741,0.5045782357558168,23.6695016972218,2.170650391332058,-0.29691327780499754,3.411248991710397e-08,157,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39816467283157264,0.5735765169584173,0.04251426653623243,0.4106670828210269,16.673151210431,0.3609433303296342,-0.08434994771697457,0.12304104274105974,152,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0632440639767924,1.0024932104134163,0.5446481267295167,0.645186056943566,27.146297533300423,0.5174487039145088,0.37369991131177943,3.19761308814089e-12,158,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0620022241311462,1.0020402920646108,0.5433951815682505,0.6456280240973072,27.14398877427217,0.5160462434204027,0.36852161452113685,5.41011394258528e-12,159,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.1525302248206,2.7465218025027536,0.29274612191157195,2.8370742550162524,27.590353254382677,1705.3757148079078,0.2687338501291989,4.185086780178527e-09,216,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.638967969038197,1.0784007804385085,0.010548357293420808,0.8842110547186213,28.153423628049854,1.895449190085244,0.06279473814842391,0.14915781148875462,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -139,7 +139,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.69
 TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.473458750158442,0.883920069404717,0.039945153768864705,0.7179661355505145,37.40913646012532,9.426150906207923,0.060606060606060615,0.3716242470071768,100,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9991738454172477,0.7474061493814469,0.31779536069647274,0.5743196281090878,19.61594355012348,2.3505259430960734,-0.31927212572373864,3.3157283895297562e-09,156,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4533461016113975,0.6099502663777426,0.05418315012554729,0.4667789516012221,11.587002735481406,0.42408142945545413,-0.05594283722551412,0.30641238164790063,152,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0475523130284314,0.9923960873153186,0.4710410591864389,0.7841892243786447,28.42300878663538,0.5372390869456428,0.36354728074473297,1.4042489419322144e-11,157,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.045240052034546,0.9913427141059734,0.47019361734244985,0.7830977233973082,28.487294661641272,0.536313537457822,0.354349754091752,3.897784373471317e-11,158,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,163.80534119677773,2.7723220908131374,0.09243251131936406,2.5693574060566498,25.37089173426817,1673.760134693757,0.26735572782084405,5.018131452831616e-09,216,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.277551305421047,1.2973832392587585,0.009791821183191307,0.750293883214471,0.04095970959438077,2.856198589746234,0.19619398403928792,8.80580697790275e-05,181,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -152,6 +152,6 @@ Toto-1.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,55.6529
 Toto-1.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.45680483631431,1.7566451020306872,0.03543346962187676,0.6053896244254073,-21.810618327960736,31.64405952117616,0.15141242937853108,0.0873982232047124,60,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.8244936372319593,1.1336393860700649,0.3894818079764779,0.4191680516131009,-31.633505933662313,3.099877679411469,-0.4342493401645708,7.410658045370871e-12,114,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.46167255666176726,0.5948082701912413,0.03949701191422227,0.38016552633276796,13.652316905731757,0.6366899576072879,-0.17824967824967822,0.005335583988800219,112,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.3940537916097533,1.441288244428483,0.5371208405925065,0.7176013128266404,4.039408682085815,2.243356562315245,0.15355142941349836,0.01410361848672397,117,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.430965679490457,1.4510909721515362,0.5363220023978719,0.719912647612576,3.3949732087353004,2.2694510560088026,0.16615964073591194,0.007634418387809793,118,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,276.70202975611693,4.106578238025717,0.9094708649971397,2.7370262855477074,0.2338377924729323,2434.557133713036,0.18049615055603083,0.0005145970795093709,168,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T00:25:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.493430638855567,1.1822810283926517,0.2168787045319125,0.7022572165896811,34.8197182017094,0.749996768684687,0.1515151515151515,0.5452047007776174,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:33.928049+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:34.591421+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -23,17 +23,17 @@ Finance,TabPFN-TS,0.376531850636821,0.6980066747495781,9,2,2,1.0
 Finance,ETS,1.327490577155719,1.2275741757852054,10,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Moving-Average,0.7842230797655203,1.0112370100581058,11,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,2,2,1.0
-Hazards,ARIMA,0.4822584677138526,0.5580358943589209,1,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Moving-Average,0.48558775783217917,0.5607866572047793,2,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,ETS,0.5082850109968539,0.5766876627733553,3,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,TiRex,0.4826247514532275,0.5825547303837108,4,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Chronos-Bolt,0.5035978542863248,0.5837228682984729,5,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Sundial,0.5205985162279188,0.5897785779219527,6,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Moirai-2.0,0.527695275094866,0.6082912371970967,7,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Chronos-2,0.5402844538693913,0.6110099293541109,8,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Toto-1.0,0.5447067827362504,0.6198857623270299,9,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.5159030493533491,0.6552873663892604,10,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.5234081583087049,0.7154825875538315,11,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Moving-Average,0.35737180512230066,0.48041852665503215,1,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Sundial,0.38205541355912803,0.49965959709714997,2,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,ARIMA,0.513256217173379,0.5679535645164655,3,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Chronos-Bolt,0.4210157601116908,0.5748702525097187,4,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Chronos-2,0.45162715714217433,0.6022361419220289,5,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.45467963247593834,0.608374911851745,6,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Moirai-2.0,0.5527598317900934,0.6675979279891759,7,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,ETS,0.7274503629390828,0.668790755636714,8,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,TiRex,0.5770288400823175,0.7115324291942324,9,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.6991576609415653,0.8458251470212828,10,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Toto-1.0,4.498480717774431,0.9849038836611602,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
 Hydrology,Moving-Average,1.0214140625,0.6370328425821091,1,1,1,1.0
 Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,0.999726629540324,0.6371976997142226,2,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 1D,Toto-1.0,1.1828445386062165,0.7008146109363338,10,1,1,1.0
 1D,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 1D,TabPFN-TS,0.8629829581417852,1.004036040514957,12,1,1,1.0
-1h,TiRex,0.23658386029479467,0.637568913552396,1,6,6,1.0
-1h,Chronos-2,0.27535867933395397,0.641120327610135,2,6,6,1.0
-1h,Sundial,0.4782107758197922,0.5959890984516459,3,6,6,1.0
-1h,Chronos-Bolt,0.3869129467061027,0.6553612620801093,4,6,6,1.0
-1h,Toto-1.0,1.1921991800605538,0.6527282343390408,5,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moirai-2.0,0.29741411006123314,0.6846731596793509,6,6,6,1.0
-1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.2511868969740782,0.6194167190839796,7,6,6,1.0
-1h,TabPFN-TS,0.4428736560186536,0.7175869951826023,8,6,6,1.0
-1h,ARIMA,1.465304815202299,1.3815726858440398,9,6,6,1.0
-1h,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moving-Average,1.6195474144088537,1.3960464827885333,11,6,6,1.0
-1h,ETS,5.51238175363501,2.595676619701423,12,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-2,0.2672545039570467,0.639576706431142,1,6,6,1.0
+1h,Sundial,0.45417504032775424,0.5797434569208265,2,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-Bolt,0.3755337803838459,0.6536941850052578,3,6,6,1.0
+1h,TiRex,0.24373417925325028,0.6591791487420849,4,6,6,1.0
+1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.24595361783286118,0.6117953527433327,5,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moirai-2.0,0.2997232596127522,0.6953720114420913,6,6,6,1.0
+1h,Toto-1.0,1.6949855448848605,0.7050925029531214,7,6,6,1.0
+1h,TabPFN-TS,0.464767358988598,0.7378840906483591,8,6,6,1.0
+1h,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,6,6,1.0
+1h,ARIMA,1.4805975835340284,1.3856350304777278,10,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moving-Average,1.5388717478866625,1.3605157006104653,11,6,6,1.0
+1h,ETS,5.85178862211017,2.660575078526543,12,6,6,1.0
 1mo,Moirai-2.0,0.5701893078499076,0.5711658118752873,1,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Chronos-Bolt,0.6722527938921684,0.6335328970612374,2,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Toto-1.0,0.6317640740160342,0.6385745807295035,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,45427.78050575926,13343.616139573438,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,0.33112343830775287,0.6408591087639055,1,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.44303153510032106,0.6530382053012764,2,7,7,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.2907103671635409,0.6572440134253928,3,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.5403622341038394,0.6078867021056567,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,0.3567187274513251,0.6919534774596541,5,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.3059580583366679,0.622723097736219,6,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,1.1680858370126643,0.6735050933105378,7,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.49750143180707923,0.7055098464842646,8,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,1.5163338622973692,1.2480242202276746,9,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,0.3227524717807059,0.6395363163221763,1,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.5169973725923475,0.5936559433858414,2,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,0.431839558999335,0.6516140882320992,3,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.30048609695042816,0.616149828563378,4,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.2982253174011723,0.6762930428051747,5,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,0.3590913541083441,0.7012111502433099,6,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.5185091508890699,0.7225803618760425,7,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,1.5792864617931184,0.7195598313008851,8,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,1.451355390462857,1.2207484100172628,9,7,7,1.0
 24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,1.6111643626474184,1.5559883799961705,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,4.232993404975467,2.235937000348479,12,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,1.6255665546718008,1.559909150882639,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,4.4554326841483585,2.2837699956131567,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,Moving-Average,4301413138.721198,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,ETS,4301412560.972201,123967.05458766423,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,0.8017260142696447,5.60310165565298,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,1.0990823535166132,6.922901496899398,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,2.336405644992367,7.3127193006425415,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.7678796232570124,3.0811081667098477,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.1656250122658105,8.650226658565176,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.6865390808253753,11.552018828811239,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,6.300088763429552,2.7326347968300655,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,38.862355529258856,15.656338556726725,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,5.582983997675871,18.10276290637925,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,1.9088862726566063,4.025370192511457,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,7.646102057230824,7.590098954379924,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,1.084032633706661,6.915203477357721,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,2.2814533227526823,7.2200350578590236,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.760453991111864,3.0635527896826056,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.8128198068039578,5.689968783862083,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.1697932461815856,8.712352581656361,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.6634620900604986,11.538446998706448,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,6.153249957153136,2.7003127160846345,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,45.71514764396261,16.224004746066818,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,5.609801411961666,18.127310694402187,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,1.9518747667911893,4.0775257545400105,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,7.859894390454856,7.677103705186532,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,ARIMA,1.4357467593036326,1.4073
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.33228586127163234,0.22104454915678584,0.36362891565490346,0.26312846157942765,0.022250183536134175,0.02191393413024315,2.960766211760618,0.5764424180016876,0.03447450399419848,0.021747057665548703,0.019463503681897795,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ARIMA,0.023975762112696596,0.024774368500219062,nan,nan,0.25101952998068583,nan,nan,0.15484108664271443,nan,nan,0.09684881581675826,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ARIMA,1.0296741533950675,0.9984829788420667,nan,nan,0.10361296682289167,nan,nan,1.0147286107107987,nan,nan,0.8082927970302988,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.7232125153501406,0.7923220063009001,nan,nan,0.6961902869046782,nan,nan,0.8504190233938448,nan,nan,0.5428553014372848,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.7701051557926232,0.8365086925921487,nan,nan,0.340511126277645,nan,nan,0.8775563547673866,nan,nan,0.5710876673827213,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,8.55998226466887,18.20404716064542,nan,nan,0.019397731887557744,nan,nan,2.9257447367582956,nan,nan,3.945031456837376,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ARIMA,0.41946174479404164,0.3887520067886783,nan,nan,0.12900699451842257,nan,nan,0.6476586637991046,nan,nan,0.4079750467727446,Web,1,7

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.537612+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.258636+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.434259+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.394597+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-2,1.856995284312634,1.8
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763978935275495,0.4551292260487874,0.3293397414624391,0.02734639793034648,0.02740698654518156,1.2449814398684094,0.4771161172636646,0.02853423165374086,0.027219291695583462,0.02293888289302154,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.004568087077043557,0.004568087077043557,nan,nan,0.1019209742528152,nan,nan,0.0675876251768292,nan,nan,0.07371692886298616,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.03022152236565098,0.03022152236565098,nan,nan,0.01838861164214259,nan,nan,0.1738433845898399,nan,nan,0.17612253472655737,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.8102304159422345,0.8102304159422345,nan,nan,0.6696798883371339,nan,nan,0.9001279997546097,nan,nan,0.5943882512463644,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.6776350496572086,0.6776350496572086,nan,nan,0.3179249682604239,nan,nan,0.8231859143943174,nan,nan,0.6055594242050929,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,3.0102227687076364,3.0102227687076364,nan,nan,0.003940912651454766,nan,nan,1.7349993569761448,nan,nan,0.7942351511510204,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,0.5379146607901764,0.5379146607901764,nan,nan,0.17100514688638668,nan,nan,0.7334266567218404,nan,nan,0.48842848142456025,Web,1,7

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.398578+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.196772+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.514286+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.482262+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.8183820341810941
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.3455539255669464,0.3455539255669464,0.35915493965148926,0.2598910116071078,0.022263105377559073,0.021625170449781378,1.7395006304410234,0.5878383498606963,0.035156044918533885,0.021479488696328264,0.02138024583258913,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.02624241179707966,0.02624241179707966,nan,nan,0.22084257001627458,nan,nan,0.16199509806497128,nan,nan,0.11193019022038148,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.022761806256580336,0.022761806256580336,nan,nan,0.015331804674808422,nan,nan,0.15087016357312116,nan,nan,0.1583952154287786,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.7552138434186063,0.7552138434186063,nan,nan,0.7634659208176218,nan,nan,0.8690304041968878,nan,nan,0.5678434968597075,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.6317047834657578,0.6317047834657578,nan,nan,0.319226988224063,nan,nan,0.794798580437684,nan,nan,0.5780425233055712,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,3.0020969012581866,3.0020969012581866,nan,nan,0.003938793819488803,nan,nan,1.7326560250835095,nan,nan,0.7942074993333476,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.4719500001866968,0.4719500001866968,nan,nan,0.16251649824562261,nan,nan,0.6869861717579887,nan,nan,0.5467640302159011,Web,1,7

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.459498+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.230660+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.558817+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.528119+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,ETS,1.573931313535394,1.5606780
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,7.485363061070757,7.069546909402846,2.3835086205114373,1.7247499565509898,0.14388404150048517,0.1583681265446001,69.43260805973387,2.7359391552208825,0.1636245744397495,0.1425472430409996,0.1432604803385527,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ETS,0.0746625808527996,0.07381970536044431,nan,nan,0.46006090604102673,nan,nan,0.27324454404946424,nan,nan,0.18347574961588958,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ETS,1.2657424086068179,1.2371938424364712,nan,nan,0.11494288800331992,nan,nan,1.1250521803928997,nan,nan,0.8879355258156113,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,0.7622428758180403,0.8151351844680578,nan,nan,0.6592816996279506,nan,nan,0.8730652185364163,nan,nan,0.560999674348257,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,1.0914885321172088,1.167123897059694,nan,nan,0.3907147724728696,nan,nan,1.0447432852702183,nan,nan,0.6724813021093836,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,2.60951152486656,2.5555100409445135,nan,nan,0.005595832905559699,nan,nan,1.6153982558077002,nan,nan,1.1349112035633127,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ETS,0.5074210195682924,0.45386653897851287,nan,nan,0.15015696096508702,nan,nan,0.7123349068860043,nan,nan,0.46371001820340635,Web,1,7

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.520139+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.249915+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.599265+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.608162+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Moirai-2.0,1.8128381614270934,1
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.14372890600255536,0.14372890600255536,0.31227461496988934,0.22596756058122644,0.019022853516839414,0.018851775659897613,1.4879776077653897,0.3791159532419539,0.02267326975973139,0.018675781179300244,0.020424282056145146,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.006875451035150713,0.006875451035150713,nan,nan,0.13224156932716488,nan,nan,0.0829183395585724,nan,nan,0.08971395358858661,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.03266933398710628,0.03266933398710628,nan,nan,0.01878769092839144,nan,nan,0.18074660159213585,nan,nan,0.18228414270623136,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.791351220951885,0.791351220951885,nan,nan,0.6814923929319413,nan,nan,0.8895792381524453,nan,nan,0.5917435173406599,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.829377574266806,0.829377574266806,nan,nan,0.3362087036722064,nan,nan,0.9107016933479404,nan,nan,0.6712818921551524,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,3.1928149894709166,3.1928149894709166,nan,nan,0.004583214102939878,nan,nan,1.7868449819362946,nan,nan,0.9159819394164409,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moirai-2.0,0.48766161312112155,0.48766161312112155,nan,nan,0.162052999946506,nan,nan,0.6983277261580851,nan,nan,0.4355676130387057,Web,1,7

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.453635+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.226466+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.628407+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.645145+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Moving-Average,1.42536209758668
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.493630847038398,1.7000589878686503,1.2217104150537874,0.8840517576268612,0.07388203163275463,0.07085183080330068,7.145487999616988,1.2221419095335853,0.07309097114634891,0.07306516534562585,0.06611845332434199,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.017460728356688507,0.016887188643017515,nan,nan,0.19520389795995652,nan,nan,0.13213904932565734,nan,nan,0.07998465835693735,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.47028811563883255,0.47128490378475324,nan,nan,0.06992728321655306,nan,nan,0.6857755577729733,nan,nan,0.5282496082538112,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.7282052411227319,0.7756597725288321,nan,nan,0.6963780498305199,nan,nan,0.853349424985294,nan,nan,0.5455312335932018,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.5362114679784434,0.5616838794110244,nan,nan,0.3296550697286643,nan,nan,0.7322646160906885,nan,nan,0.48306959036069586,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,3.0708855309959375,3.006504065040653,nan,nan,0.003930817610062893,nan,nan,1.7523942281906595,nan,nan,0.7914259368697338,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moving-Average,0.5225479238151219,0.4638223057159223,nan,nan,0.15401827526707126,nan,nan,0.7228747635760443,nan,nan,0.46633423707628346,Web,1,7

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.501335+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.243560+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.689432+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.702355+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -2,11 +2,11 @@
     "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:04.386235+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:36.116553+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:10.034135+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:36.788874+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 4,
+    "task_count": 3,
     "issued_tasks": 1,
     "issued_forecasts": 12,
     "resolved_forecasts": 12,
@@ -19,15 +19,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.398578+00:00",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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@@ -171,15 +171,15 @@
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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@@ -190,15 +190,15 @@
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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@@ -228,15 +228,15 @@
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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@@ -262,7 +262,5 @@
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-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-29T04:54:38.701822+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

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+  "target_start": "2026-07-28T05:00:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00"
 }

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+    "2026-07-28T07:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T08:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T09:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T10:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T11:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T12:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T13:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T14:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T15:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T16:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T17:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T18:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T19:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T20:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T21:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T22:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T23:00:00",
+    "2026-07-29T00:00:00",
+    "2026-07-29T01:00:00",
+    "2026-07-29T02:00:00",
+    "2026-07-29T03:00:00",
+    "2026-07-29T04:00:00"
+  ],
+  "context_start": "2026-07-22 05:00",
+  "context_end": "2026-07-29 04:00",
+  "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-29T05:05:29.622492Z",
+  "task_id": "future-d58860088411ec938c06",
+  "issued_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:15.698728+00:00",
+  "status": "open",
+  "scored_models": [],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+}

results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.82540234829246
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4220830567678604,1.4220830567678604,1.1374998887379963,0.8231154973782487,0.06849731872919221,0.06598468274623316,18.192842105640498,1.1925112396819832,0.07131889016436462,0.06802890147057772,0.06090870857230404,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.021964487461018273,0.021964487461018273,nan,nan,0.15292908855273898,nan,nan,0.1482042086481294,nan,nan,0.09176957303480657,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.05446273032547061,0.05446273032547061,nan,nan,0.019720447064865965,nan,nan,0.23337251407453838,nan,nan,0.14723236289593666,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4996367379063997,1.4996367379063997,nan,nan,0.7920828592703594,nan,nan,1.2245965612831027,nan,nan,0.9727963862627943,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.5004302530104183,1.5004302530104183,nan,nan,0.5787619239921872,nan,nan,1.2249205088537045,nan,nan,1.0055182378667242,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,3.006504065040653,3.006504065040653,nan,nan,0.003930817610062893,nan,nan,1.7339273528728512,nan,nan,1.2423628484550617,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.1956686926031785,1.1956686926031785,nan,nan,0.24653455434324129,nan,nan,1.0934663655564256,nan,nan,0.8509378537691182,Web,1,7

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.543072+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.266515+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.737261+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.751209+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Sundial,1.8951818473141462,1.91
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Sundial,0.8427959919452709,0.728805377540842,0.6027306715647379,0.43614681761468477,0.037071160344855525,0.03572165078421854,7.949536290001031,0.9180392104617705,0.05490391657437408,0.03604668965257109,0.027748537362407476,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Sundial,0.07240789929541203,0.034247198292841646,nan,nan,0.3187960858696557,nan,nan,0.26908715929120813,nan,nan,0.1350895598036612,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Sundial,0.04147564649132133,0.042493546432574324,nan,nan,0.02001445950916341,nan,nan,0.20365570576667213,nan,nan,0.15088829003761098,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.7807086606349478,0.7757135753093496,nan,nan,0.8357156827887059,nan,nan,0.8835771956286264,nan,nan,0.5737344692976855,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.5732475008305224,0.5602884470815664,nan,nan,0.3730626888655392,nan,nan,0.7571310988399053,nan,nan,0.5024168376063236,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,3.3817427434002028,3.1166905541326115,nan,nan,0.004201388675628384,nan,nan,1.8389515337279019,nan,nan,0.8503095594453434,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Sundial,0.3632078483298184,0.3563015156678547,nan,nan,0.1391300563020866,nan,nan,0.602667278296921,nan,nan,0.44954022702632723,Web,1,7

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.488256+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.239592+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.819370+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.790126+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -107,6 +107,6 @@ temperature_rain/D/short,TabPFN-TS,192.348170645723,192.348170645723,5.973571384
 us_births/D/short,TabPFN-TS,112759.78666666668,112759.78666666668,215.285703125,0.31694359235351605,0.020599613189697264,0.02048578898111979,2.2508974742308343,335.79724040954636,0.03147826645095531,0.020181287725250033,0.015855619215830008,Healthcare,1
 us_births/M/short,TabPFN-TS,59338602.666666664,59338602.666666664,6332.360677083333,0.7153333155562595,0.019422224412361785,0.019690368324518204,4.7156280861706295,7703.155370798817,0.0239259480622513,0.01966826908953116,0.015286944232309424,Healthcare,1
 us_births/W/short,TabPFN-TS,1737954.0,1737954.0,983.3291015625,0.8942316441355983,0.013318025640078954,0.013351580926350184,6.532085345899004,1318.3148334142345,0.0178959945969944,0.01334859613394065,0.010610700543554966,Healthcare,1
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.7849221031196626,0.7849221031196626,nan,nan,0.6780399486512959,nan,nan,0.8859582964901128,nan,nan,0.6960188756063207,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,1.049037306100725,1.049037306100725,nan,nan,0.35903704521638335,nan,nan,1.0242252223513757,nan,nan,0.8504926113762031,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,3.005682175642375,3.005682175642375,nan,nan,0.003931806072499018,nan,nan,1.733690334414533,nan,nan,0.7916307492459745,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TabPFN-TS,1.0318417053002116,1.0318417053002116,nan,nan,0.21346065016808555,nan,nan,1.0157960943517215,nan,nan,0.8543722734226411,Web,1,7

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.465433+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.234757+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.864318+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.813138+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.4141845873381427,
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.1617179170793861,0.26413559913635254,0.1911332978675114,0.01630353750267156,0.01601217538840988,10.994616695384883,0.4650043583043965,0.027809880236186378,0.015796796840529412,0.021259949519123158,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.006262990376178233,0.004554783835561518,nan,nan,0.09627439894456198,nan,nan,0.07913905721057228,nan,nan,0.10022450213355703,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.06269121952817955,0.10589695801141052,nan,nan,0.033732113336197196,nan,nan,0.25038214698372474,nan,nan,0.1887512228581642,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.7736671660082207,0.9192549938039831,nan,nan,0.6858045973238216,nan,nan,0.8795835184951004,nan,nan,0.6374611819871363,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.6822150759945562,0.9498311720680652,nan,nan,0.3371452478361714,nan,nan,0.8259631202387648,nan,nan,0.6117320693274902,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,3.0040916827348085,2.999761357062112,nan,nan,0.003943338311970887,nan,nan,1.7332315721607452,nan,nan,0.7987589498784374,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.38719216672060525,0.341005570724447,nan,nan,0.12667853599052806,nan,nan,0.6222476731339421,nan,nan,0.5343002043100503,Web,1,7

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.439500+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.215865+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.921348+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.840229+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TiRex,1.7236237732645157,1.7236
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.1330410943866506,0.1330410943866506,0.2665089766184489,0.19285071674902834,0.016340940517305648,0.0161404612437938,1.417522257895925,0.3647479875018512,0.021813984466305555,0.01593873818441926,0.018680112149927236,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TiRex,0.0027620856067215142,0.0027620856067215142,nan,nan,0.0785130454542927,nan,nan,0.05255554782058231,nan,nan,0.08149323675215601,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TiRex,0.06152528541441301,0.06152528541441301,nan,nan,0.025145317063173283,nan,nan,0.2480429104296533,nan,nan,0.21547322137758032,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.7237618079022049,0.7237618079022049,nan,nan,0.6982327102959812,nan,nan,0.850741916154485,nan,nan,0.5667071365175703,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.8657915285190199,0.8657915285190199,nan,nan,0.345429846088212,nan,nan,0.9304791929532975,nan,nan,0.7154588343884143,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,3.008671345983993,3.008671345983993,nan,nan,0.003936306846577777,nan,nan,1.7345522033032021,nan,nan,0.9798782697597327,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TiRex,0.5500816371095917,0.5500816371095917,nan,nan,0.16152377391214015,nan,nan,0.7416748863953745,nan,nan,0.5062535723576331,Web,1,7

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.431315+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.208670+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:09.968589+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.907333+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Toto-1.0,5.1232459483513475,1.7
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.2061994614582545,0.2026127577197864,0.29392051696777344,0.2126862032329617,0.01814908932063847,0.017779550705114375,1.3101507982416967,1.7905863457142341,0.10708715077088915,0.017578102720665366,0.014884503464531462,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.150750383270116,0.004939613297587732,nan,nan,0.09535892261593037,nan,nan,0.3882658667332425,nan,nan,0.07054306522652543,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.07401720791630814,0.04597913287011668,nan,nan,0.02153606086089947,nan,nan,0.27206103711540197,nan,nan,0.18626719621804055,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.8168623027780804,0.8057370308350262,nan,nan,0.7073522246638566,nan,nan,0.9038043498335689,nan,nan,0.6030226294874921,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,6.7496565615327775,1.6520786133316276,nan,nan,0.4428579336256222,nan,nan,2.5980101157487394,nan,nan,0.990338817567063,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,3.1066490125910557,3.203456089860421,nan,nan,0.004601083822581364,nan,nan,1.7625688674747026,nan,nan,1.0098113623904836,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Toto-1.0,1.4142901830281045,0.7431608109672617,nan,nan,0.20031694349088386,nan,nan,1.1892393295834547,nan,nan,0.5963496809202035,Web,1,7

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T04:53:31.447641+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:08:33.222716+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3c0c924c6cae9ef950c9",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T03:37:14.671567+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T04:50:10.027271+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:06:14.944259+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-29T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]