Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:20.869045+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:42.558415+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:18.610197+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:40.519948+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
     "frequency",
     "prediction_length"
   ],
-  "num_configs": 12,
+  "num_configs": 13,
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_rows_missing_prediction_length": 0
 }

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,6 +35,18 @@ Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.7247978632328378,0.8249918557759415,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Sundial,1.0169587977425802,0.9183235752037384,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.7939141618582515,0.9372016432334698,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.1811008163011596,2,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ARIMA,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,3,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ETS,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,4,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moving-Average,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,5,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.0,1.1811023622047234,6,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.1811023622047234,7,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Sundial,1.0,1.1811023622047234,8,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.1811023622047234,9,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.1811023622047234,10,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.7839556631798548,1.3622767704574028,11,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TiRex,0.9568451217122376,1.4505235406670343,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,Moving-Average,0.6885555599162482,0.7882638185220112,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Sundial,1.0100384161323002,0.9753941694223817,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TimesFM-2.5,0.6685946883150999,0.7997804319007484,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,6 +11,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0019529557526288,0.9863010922397192,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,Chronos-2,1.4062990275163183,1.0749886941936895,12,1,1,1.0
+15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moirai-2.0,1.0,1.1811008163011596,2,1,1,1.0
+15min,ARIMA,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,3,1,1,1.0
+15min,ETS,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,4,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moving-Average,1.000000000936299,1.18110235783726,5,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-2,1.0,1.1811023622047234,6,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,1.1811023622047234,7,1,1,1.0
+15min,Sundial,1.0,1.1811023622047234,8,1,1,1.0
+15min,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.1811023622047234,9,1,1,1.0
+15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.1811023622047234,10,1,1,1.0
+15min,Toto-1.0,1.7839556631798548,1.3622767704574028,11,1,1,1.0
+15min,TiRex,0.9568451217122376,1.4505235406670343,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,296910.5495133771,13406.731654855768,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.7610996943071011,0.878746331824924,1,6,6,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,3.7496443706833267,0.8493092732352021,2,6,6,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,1.014246865952099,0.9083287947663047,3,6,6,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,4,6,6,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,1.2211495654602278,0.9979878400623481,5,6,6,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.7569397375884535,0.926257234094127,6,6,6,1.0
-24,Sundial,1.3657000431154327,0.9576090002677531,7,6,6,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,1.159369986330377,0.9368498734192843,8,6,6,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.905722114763785,1.00979852986364,9,6,6,1.0
-24,ARIMA,5.5976242951061925,2.579896730748346,10,6,6,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,3.4357064155293853,1.9348925056984916,11,6,6,1.0
-24,ETS,22.757191857667504,5.205578498615606,12,6,6,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.7863964815415329,0.9439695608862385,1,7,7,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,2,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,1.1867884414932584,1.022296617798916,3,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,3.37212375775342,0.9086153682008863,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,1.0121992393929897,0.9430509286507205,5,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.7876590398010317,0.9589832700406598,6,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,1.3062275772015808,0.9867392589565129,7,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,1.1351348942591646,0.9683758186291227,8,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.9186256070061112,1.0326581173710205,9,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,4.376692834011164,2.3074313100174684,10,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,2.880330512406768,1.803153320337502,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,14.562789605162186,4.211560817547539,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,Moving-Average,1208318634.7525988,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,ARIMA,1083193423.3268,342.79755336616876,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,2.2411906792350385,8.318335417093458,1,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,3.001273547114267,9.545109702954207,2,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,3.5923477656576366,15.59938177748581,3,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,136.55033685846675,25.18425822488033,4,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,6.245198794823075,14.17677665986775,5,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,6,12,12,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,12.123639427770247,6.827532859336075,7,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,9.227150875944035,3.547561920447639,8,12,12,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,2.5766343097538993,5.7125418751954005,9,12,12,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,3.063102355924496,5.806349305568775,10,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,4.710072739572405,22.088460114150934,11,12,12,1.0
-Overall,ETS,25.835495433734277,14.831261446192443,12,12,12,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,2.0991582488730605,7.272594589450372,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,3.2557943084109247,12.790585698948476,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,2.757971452657122,8.127813702723484,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,10.006371577164353,5.965546569331156,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,5.4243836782106065,11.709954106357802,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,97.80852746293337,20.122322317037032,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,7.77735013145603,3.2597797515273625,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,2.3957050062333347,5.060254160244622,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,2.810376272659753,5.13691000772867,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,20.117996726113848,12.208099157961373,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,4.1807698383593035,17.633100330024003,12,13,13,1.0

results/dataset_eval_intervals.json

@@ -10,6 +10,5 @@
     "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5": 3600,
     "open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m": 3600,
     "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count": 3600,
-    "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060": 900,
     "wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews": 86400
 }

results/dataset_properties.csv

@@ -10,4 +10,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature,Weather,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5,Air Quality,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m,Weather,1h,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count,Hazards,1h,1
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060,Hydrology,15min,1
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews,Web,1D,1

results/online_status.json

@@ -2,14 +2,14 @@
     "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:45.691880+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:20.882161+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:35.563556+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:42.569509+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 4,
-    "issued_tasks": 1,
-    "issued_forecasts": 12,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
+    "task_count": 1,
+    "issued_tasks": 0,
+    "issued_forecasts": 0,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 0,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
     "failed_forecasts": [],
     "models": {
@@ -19,18 +19,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.473222+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:48.855197+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634259+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TiRex": {
             "model": "TiRex",
@@ -38,18 +28,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.487692+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.269283+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634266+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TimesFM-2.5": {
             "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
@@ -57,18 +37,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.491048+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.213115+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634268+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Toto-1.0": {
             "model": "Toto-1.0",
@@ -76,18 +46,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.493075+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.324286+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634269+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moirai-2.0": {
             "model": "Moirai-2.0",
@@ -95,18 +55,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.514654+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.042964+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634270+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Chronos-Bolt": {
             "model": "Chronos-Bolt",
@@ -114,18 +64,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.536576+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:48.931036+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634271+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "TabPFN-TS": {
             "model": "TabPFN-TS",
@@ -133,18 +73,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.553902+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.161563+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634272+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Sundial": {
             "model": "Sundial",
@@ -152,18 +82,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.579967+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.113043+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634273+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Moving-Average": {
             "model": "Moving-Average",
@@ -171,18 +91,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.593675+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.063161+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634274+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ETS": {
             "model": "ETS",
@@ -190,18 +100,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.603213+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:48.996024+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634275+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "ARIMA": {
             "model": "ARIMA",
@@ -209,18 +109,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.613334+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:48.775574+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634276+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         },
         "Seasonal-Naive": {
             "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
@@ -228,18 +118,8 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:16.618325+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": [
-                {
-                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-8f0dd89c2daa53783fa6",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:34:30.317021+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T09:42:49.085103+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T00:05:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 12,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                }
-            ]
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T09:56:38.634277+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": []
         }
     },
     "skipped_models": [],
@@ -262,7 +142,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-27T09:45:55.031887+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }