Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:35.002695+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:12.533739+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27122,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2682,
+  "num_model_releases": 27134,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2683,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
@@ -25,21 +25,21 @@
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2538,
-      "num_unique_releases": 212,
+      "num_model_releases": 2550,
+      "num_unique_releases": 213,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26741,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2624,
+      "num_model_releases": 26753,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2625,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 4734
+    "prequential-v1": 4746
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,7.622412740356686,1.1464688635603784,0.3019308085832092,0.789375531765766,6.768488236509601,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375,35.84896204825565,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,7.0448666616185465,1.0827325459352632,0.24602584308797884,0.8031912830523288,18.507292751285995,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375,33.205086631895504,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,6.989002723135289,1.0846731687930387,0.35397389227004866,0.8900985427730701,12.925621568254964,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375,32.70898371510608,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,7.373882860260609,1.1840687094172095,0.7830276769105015,0.875423305627506,3.156428860963662,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25,34.497535955743366,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,7.606629746214843,1.1413289651359912,0.3192839420175035,0.9673114491524806,11.90327253610983,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25,35.77084664923236,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,6.773435788144266,1.1914944752800527,0.588400414370665,0.843064091372093,-9.528724938100359,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25,31.06580311628964,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,7.524560561373266,1.0979936302705329,0.38475098811652064,0.8463857271785691,2.463207653892013,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25,36.475509506072065,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,7.684115297488689,1.2314212198671406,0.7773550051698956,1.0143021034007713,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375,35.56627516958364,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,7.360232671760871,1.135582175347514,0.8908287661791875,0.9488270755945505,1.607436637624824,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375,35.747667885581166,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,8.420918478606213,1.555541148804257,0.9102041050077727,1.3668160779126546,-18.276864388949498,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375,34.565504888241946,-0.5555555555555557,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,7.269904211144564,1.4219689807190812,0.37047384075878675,0.8381016047394575,-31.2378133936567,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25,31.416888084082945,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,8.54076640719269,1.6741601556376497,1.034795012345937,1.406762735863743,-22.226727642700663,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375,31.066837848493517,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,7.622412740356686,1.1464688635603784,0.3019308085832092,0.789375531765766,6.768488236509601,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375,35.84896204825565,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,7.0448666616185465,1.0827325459352632,0.24602584308797884,0.8031912830523288,18.507292751285995,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375,33.205086631895504,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,6.989002723135289,1.0846731687930387,0.35397389227004866,0.8900985427730701,12.925621568254964,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375,32.70898371510608,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,7.373882860260609,1.1840687094172095,0.7830276769105015,0.875423305627506,3.156428860963662,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25,34.497535955743366,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,7.606629746214843,1.1413289651359912,0.3192839420175035,0.9673114491524806,11.90327253610983,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25,35.77084664923236,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,6.773435788144266,1.1914944752800527,0.588400414370665,0.843064091372093,-9.528724938100359,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25,31.06580311628964,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,7.524560561373266,1.0979936302705329,0.38475098811652064,0.8463857271785691,2.463207653892013,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25,36.475509506072065,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,7.684115297488689,1.2314212198671406,0.7773550051698956,1.0143021034007713,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375,35.56627516958364,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,7.360232671760871,1.135582175347514,0.8908287661791875,0.9488270755945505,1.607436637624824,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375,35.747667885581166,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,8.420918478606213,1.555541148804257,0.9102041050077727,1.3668160779126546,-18.276864388949498,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375,34.565504888241946,-0.5555555555555557,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,7.269904211144564,1.4219689807190812,0.37047384075878675,0.8381016047394575,-31.2378133936567,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25,31.416888084082945,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,8.54076640719269,1.6741601556376497,1.034795012345937,1.406762735863743,-22.226727642700663,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375,31.066837848493517,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.130907590333454,0.8760603940661347,0.15966022946274244,0.6393707762624008,23.3360429126269,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375,136.57936930759524,0.04017613356728,0.15384615384615385,13,2576,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.300602399422548,0.8801894702165011,0.19554995100617462,0.6730912604868439,24.54716435737064,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375,139.31188082951869,0.03385859410776952,0.23076923076923078,13,2563,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.179385090068514,0.8753763888242704,0.13740055525657424,0.717475445991046,23.951931365019867,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375,136.83674150614817,0.0422759244999923,0.23076923076923078,13,2557,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.692609303658436,0.9248071008318225,0.2407490384275482,0.6708570773832623,22.120257531662908,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25,156.31370298670788,0.07008629941017776,0.15384615384615385,13,1864,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.388530732460897,0.9722252958044348,0.20002564996636704,0.8174626194852437,18.646514340115726,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25,163.74062836675705,0.04801897646648999,0.15384615384615385,13,1756,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.957877322976604,0.9714165714771229,0.2736365055397766,0.718881841572129,11.461599268699711,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25,157.2676858020827,0.029198410375824643,0.15384615384615385,13,1851,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.34227053257574,1.012080902172687,0.22218229866304948,0.7650186672624975,16.109063126370657,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25,151.2049479350183,0.00581067705098273,0.3076923076923077,13,2104,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.979922592105982,1.232945473002986,0.3645355539981596,0.9611901646455794,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375,141.85471404858885,0.03672947488002088,0.23076923076923078,13,2404,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.72219878902524,1.1397549617664335,0.33996168536769295,0.9159927234149939,3.1081427500366297,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375,142.0991834155752,0.07868824267254615,0.15384615384615385,13,2396,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.64953005073667,1.143672557760994,0.34701279595898415,0.9021486340682526,1.834157075075743,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375,142.1060221058361,0.05871672268588963,0.15384615384615385,13,2396,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.59809926774279,1.6607115610053464,0.2808650304727875,0.7010263862686309,-19.143828978002716,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25,213.59406784818492,-0.005664046997547948,0.15384615384615385,13,1878,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.421578260297096,1.4001948539294071,0.31542871602385963,1.1108922686385343,-3.571089706391824,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375,146.9691973898575,0.07314405391150504,0.15384615384615385,13,2396,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.130907590333454,0.8760603940661347,0.15966022946274244,0.6393707762624008,23.3360429126269,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375,136.57936930759524,0.04017613356728,0.15384615384615385,13,2577,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.300602399422548,0.8801894702165011,0.19554995100617462,0.6730912604868439,24.54716435737064,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375,139.31188082951869,0.03385859410776952,0.23076923076923078,13,2564,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.179385090068514,0.8753763888242704,0.13740055525657424,0.717475445991046,23.951931365019867,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375,136.83674150614817,0.0422759244999923,0.23076923076923078,13,2558,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.692609303658436,0.9248071008318225,0.2407490384275482,0.6708570773832623,22.120257531662908,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25,156.31370298670788,0.07008629941017776,0.15384615384615385,13,1865,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.388530732460897,0.9722252958044348,0.20002564996636704,0.8174626194852437,18.646514340115726,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25,163.74062836675705,0.04801897646648999,0.15384615384615385,13,1757,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.957877322976604,0.9714165714771229,0.2736365055397766,0.718881841572129,11.461599268699711,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25,157.2676858020827,0.029198410375824643,0.15384615384615385,13,1852,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.34227053257574,1.0120809021726045,0.22218229866304948,0.7650186672626613,16.109063126370657,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25,151.2049479350183,0.00581067705098273,0.3076923076923077,13,2105,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.979922592105982,1.232945473002986,0.3645355539981596,0.9611901646455794,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375,141.85471404858885,0.03672947488002088,0.23076923076923078,13,2405,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.72219878902524,1.1397549617664335,0.33996168536769295,0.9159927234149939,3.1081427500366297,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375,142.0991834155752,0.07868824267254615,0.15384615384615385,13,2397,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.64953005073667,1.143672557760994,0.34701279595898415,0.9021486340682526,1.834157075075743,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375,142.1060221058361,0.05871672268588963,0.15384615384615385,13,2397,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.597996485188244,1.6606536331964388,0.2808650304727875,0.7010263867954889,-19.143828978002716,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25,213.59374023912494,-0.00586350742015375,0.15384615384615385,13,1879,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.421578260297096,1.4001948539294071,0.31542871602385963,1.1108922686385343,-3.571089706391824,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375,146.9691973898575,0.07314405391150504,0.15384615384615385,13,2397,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,116.83547251891959,1.7784379446133378,0.15603852967833448,1.5546181075815337,15.269918287268512,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375,449.3656716720863,-0.1617367952505585,0.08333333333333333,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,117.57985715615898,1.752501177559883,0.15312294469039892,1.825998208348083,17.82440933429355,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375,458.1007231955935,-0.216731113652133,0.0,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.67041096099852,1.7419964170144837,0.13771196534029917,1.6122865698213042,16.832851706152947,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375,449.2142773255306,-0.20174620349319852,0.0,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.77755567234071,1.78692721507495,0.21420074998630922,1.5432548826916337,13.40606582530384,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25,449.30624625563144,-0.11703497805231534,0.0,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.97235680252429,1.856949160034408,0.18127817216899997,1.724528080185298,8.066908267840605,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25,449.43102748603945,-0.17065295461270077,0.08333333333333333,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.8122576647396,1.815356604572324,0.20568169583423707,1.5963015951361974,4.127161395524117,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25,449.478130022287,-0.13113243543915898,0.0,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,116.95735585606927,1.8163198317084461,0.19009495864035444,1.6144827344256318,12.824055163135748,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25,449.4309114027643,-0.21153042133006694,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.30003437349039,1.983465605949605,0.2681214439976019,1.6217329434401198,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375,449.578137147835,-0.17412119501062823,0.08333333333333333,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,117.12807360334766,1.9493117947926752,0.2761702825910211,1.7535024798302405,-3.270940662324279,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375,449.4959836515481,-0.07122334368040634,0.08333333333333333,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,117.2262661290983,2.0359484401783607,0.2678244302964944,1.7760707461426681,-8.335067923774231,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375,449.493795979664,0.010235131245836429,0.08333333333333333,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,158.02692165144902,2.393902303419033,0.1742052334133258,1.4912380105822256,-26.692438598175627,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25,576.5958544194237,-0.16086962647375172,0.0,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,118.57918773028064,2.3390640784298573,0.3866024555088053,2.061279117391297,-14.147530863213888,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375,450.7038543153916,0.011479843183471223,0.0,12,211,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,116.83547251891959,1.7784379446133378,0.15603852967833448,1.5546181075815337,15.269918287268512,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375,449.3656716720863,-0.1617367952505585,0.08333333333333333,12,213,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,117.57985715615898,1.752501177559883,0.15312294469039892,1.825998208348083,17.82440933429355,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375,458.1007231955935,-0.216731113652133,0.0,12,213,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.67041096099852,1.7419964170144837,0.13771196534029917,1.6122865698213042,16.832851706152947,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375,449.2142773255306,-0.20174620349319852,0.0,12,213,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.77755567234071,1.78692721507495,0.21420074998630922,1.5432548826916337,13.40606582530384,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25,449.30624625563144,-0.11703497805231534,0.0,12,213,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,116.97235680252429,1.856949160034408,0.18127817216899997,1.724528080185298,8.066908267840605,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25,449.43102748603945,-0.17065295461270077,0.08333333333333333,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.8122576647396,1.815356604572324,0.20568169583423707,1.5963015951361974,4.127161395524117,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25,449.478130022287,-0.13113243543915898,0.0,12,213,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,116.95735585606927,1.8163198317077909,0.19009495864035444,1.6144827344265906,12.824055163135748,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25,449.4309114027643,-0.21153042133006694,0.0,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.30003437349039,1.983465605949605,0.2681214439976019,1.6217329434401198,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375,449.578137147835,-0.17412119501062823,0.08333333333333333,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,117.12807360334766,1.9493117947926752,0.2761702825910211,1.7535024798302405,-3.270940662324279,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375,449.4959836515481,-0.07122334368040634,0.08333333333333333,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,117.2262661290983,2.0359484401783607,0.2678244302964944,1.7760707461426681,-8.335067923774231,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375,449.493795979664,0.010235131245836429,0.08333333333333333,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,158.02613003110687,2.3935558980659173,0.1742052334133258,1.4912380137686527,-26.692438598175627,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25,576.5933286818029,-0.16210357716406446,0.0,12,213,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,118.57918773028064,2.3390640784298573,0.3866024555088053,2.061279117391297,-14.147530863213888,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375,450.7038543153916,0.011479843183471223,0.0,12,212,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T05:50:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.130898800621772,0.8758374871214567,0.15961261608810146,0.6395055577117384,23.487989426012177,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375,136.57936078360228,0.03652824397774587,0.15384615384615385,13,2627,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.298973120929164,0.8789273008654213,0.19532276327683037,0.6727020974924738,24.706347049962783,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375,139.31025410526016,0.03642906617426283,0.23076923076923078,13,2613,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.180047788185654,0.8756565142449703,0.1373835926240634,0.7177188840687369,23.93048199681467,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375,136.8378533479816,0.0377222700789639,0.23076923076923078,13,2608,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.692609303658436,0.9248071008318225,0.2407490384275482,0.6708570773832623,22.120257531662908,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25,156.31370298670788,0.07008629941017776,0.15384615384615385,13,1864,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.388530732460897,0.9722252958044348,0.20002564996636704,0.8174626194852437,18.646514340115726,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25,163.74062836675705,0.04801897646648999,0.15384615384615385,13,1756,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.957877322976604,0.9714165714771229,0.2736365055397766,0.718881841572129,11.461599268699711,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25,157.2676858020827,0.029198410375824643,0.15384615384615385,13,1851,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.34227053257574,1.012080902172687,0.22218229866304948,0.7650186672624975,16.109063126370657,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25,151.2049479350183,0.00581067705098273,0.3076923076923077,13,2104,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.977954037235834,1.2328271747811321,0.3646581964039383,0.9615464611380603,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375,141.85230335112058,0.03999048344606923,0.23076923076923078,13,2462,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.725539241306636,1.1415001726130634,0.3403385347788915,0.9177141741297444,3.015493370108532,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375,142.10034661876358,0.06657028891003006,0.15384615384615385,13,2453,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.661478231141407,1.1474080313700974,0.34753807929845154,0.9051427658874707,1.7053093581195777,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375,142.11657134441168,0.042398136075525825,0.15384615384615385,13,2453,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.59809926774279,1.6607115610053464,0.2808650304727875,0.7010263862686309,-19.143828978002716,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25,213.59406784818492,-0.005664046997547948,0.15384615384615385,13,1878,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.461048376357567,1.4088542673376847,0.3162928716500706,1.1178372506516951,-3.830351954377264,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375,146.99772333203603,0.050495418530774154,0.15384615384615385,13,2453,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.130898800621772,0.8758374871214567,0.15961261608810146,0.6395055577117384,23.487989426012177,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375,136.57936078360228,0.03652824397774587,0.15384615384615385,13,2628,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.298973120929164,0.8789273008654213,0.19532276327683037,0.6727020974924738,24.706347049962783,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375,139.31025410526016,0.03642906617426283,0.23076923076923078,13,2614,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.180047788185654,0.8756565142449703,0.1373835926240634,0.7177188840687369,23.93048199681467,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375,136.8378533479816,0.0377222700789639,0.23076923076923078,13,2609,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.692609303658436,0.9248071008318225,0.2407490384275482,0.6708570773832623,22.120257531662908,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25,156.31370298670788,0.07008629941017776,0.15384615384615385,13,1865,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.388530732460897,0.9722252958044348,0.20002564996636704,0.8174626194852437,18.646514340115726,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25,163.74062836675705,0.04801897646648999,0.15384615384615385,13,1757,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.957877322976604,0.9714165714771229,0.2736365055397766,0.718881841572129,11.461599268699711,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25,157.2676858020827,0.029198410375824643,0.15384615384615385,13,1852,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.34227053257574,1.0120809021726045,0.22218229866304948,0.7650186672626613,16.109063126370657,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25,151.2049479350183,0.00581067705098273,0.3076923076923077,13,2105,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.977954037235834,1.2328271747811321,0.3646581964039383,0.9615464611380603,0.0,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375,141.85230335112058,0.03999048344606923,0.23076923076923078,13,2463,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.725539241306636,1.1415001726130634,0.3403385347788915,0.9177141741297444,3.015493370108532,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375,142.10034661876358,0.06657028891003006,0.15384615384615385,13,2454,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.661478231141407,1.1474080313700974,0.34753807929845154,0.9051427658874707,1.7053093581195777,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375,142.11657134441168,0.042398136075525825,0.15384615384615385,13,2454,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.597996485188244,1.6606536331964388,0.2808650304727875,0.7010263867954889,-19.143828978002716,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25,213.59374023912494,-0.00586350742015375,0.15384615384615385,13,1879,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.461048376357567,1.4088542673376847,0.3162928716500706,1.1178372506516951,-3.830351954377264,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375,146.99772333203603,0.050495418530774154,0.15384615384615385,13,2454,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2622,13,32.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2613,13,32.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2608,13,32.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1864,13,27.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1753,13,29.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1851,13,27.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5118966589192226,11,2102,13,29.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2453,13,32.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38017533661852204,11,2453,13,32.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459618629902813,11,2453,13,32.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1878,13,27.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.36585269417004,11,2453,13,32.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.669271347167728,11,2623,13,32.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6675137714942955,11,2614,13,32.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.609251663944257,11,2609,13,32.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5783787149690853,11,1865,13,27.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598264993326377,11,1754,13,29.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232172965856069,11,1852,13,27.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5118967618322231,11,2103,13,29.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38605648795120806,11,2454,13,32.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3801753023141885,11,2454,13,32.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37459615199469454,11,2454,13,32.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3739633425483688,11,1879,13,27.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.36585265986570653,11,2454,13,32.59375

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -887,6 +887,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.345018
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:03.865422+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.462954395849367,1.8609015008455894,0.014360691738266046,1.6643409314592585,36.52788285343663,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.786276+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.6580066822977786,1.6303394377545366,0.855374664230337,1.2215035606294653,-65.4080955827095,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.497059+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.444199351511376,1.2017484560054055,0.014039255014881546,1.6170549009685766,-23.20781734247393,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.036895+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.624654+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,12.732514166665013,3.5682648677844826,0.011779806284116697,1.2049921878748935,25.689293104271755,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.134705+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.872709+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.012018205319216,1.0059911556863788,0.0836489282045721,0.6651035544968589,26.50914862777105,True
@@ -3396,6 +3397,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.350235
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:03.915234+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.3887909053205996,1.8408668896258087,0.014720746607562294,1.1675969507848698,37.4621682670404,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.792337+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.19338215493012664,0.4397523791068408,0.23062635862856967,0.19757089460820074,48.38000152313978,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.518465+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0954658710884135,1.0466450549677353,0.006112263091766741,0.722600276563339,-9.78827321423782,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.040672+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.633094+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,15.491475241788189,3.9359211427298932,0.03758129727807094,3.891496671370687,16.323984913328864,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.141532+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.877979+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.33317548246507434,0.5772135501398719,0.0616300816417261,0.40730738939347905,67.89120534406699,True
@@ -5723,6 +5725,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.358422
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:03.937705+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.633134961534943,1.2779416894111182,0.0077373700310202215,0.8831297360100471,64.03544887397763,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.798181+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.896804367041148,1.377245209482011,0.7212455493789174,0.6977443985928048,-54.67229199575416,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.534241+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.592759701595945,1.262045839736396,0.007619512746083082,0.8573106978603051,-27.784139873122268,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.046895+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.641190+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,15.157158985735947,3.893219616941221,0.037297637479651154,3.8060993275728165,17.383833930234484,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.148943+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.883264+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.4310728730577817,0.6565614008284234,0.07096415387377422,0.4009369346011632,60.32807365524762,True
@@ -7818,6 +7821,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.367188
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:03.955351+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.935192780827153,1.3911120662359135,0.010188386639864702,1.1571069280386805,58.75536212184174,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.804126+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.1306774141529035,2.032406803312984,1.076269300479145,1.5207552696427604,-76.27803311563827,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.562003+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.1367565106639945,1.0661878402345408,0.006078660763720901,0.6777754862194214,-11.616994346491278,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.052545+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.654191+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.912987428445973,3.148489705945689,0.030722588902093496,3.1515309986771363,36.95790864621966,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.153916+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.888071+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.654694252940534,2.1574740445577865,0.2456519831297819,1.8891673554375865,-45.53173632040054,True
@@ -10030,6 +10034,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.374090
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:03.993134+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.82534639523015,1.9558492772271974,0.015689046064389298,1.2566638224910893,32.13937317851463,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.810074+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3581974922882257,0.5984960252902485,0.3139047864809513,0.2964742086141968,21.62565174798196,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.585671+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8259814965479922,0.9088352416956509,0.005563784881203421,0.5961492911801645,4.295771553211849,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.062526+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.658434+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,16.98542883746381,4.121338233809961,0.03936812359044625,3.8243296007244467,11.812638063032015,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.158266+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.892758+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3898067486594757,0.6243450557660208,0.06567948143335396,0.4007737263523997,63.431431576769434,True
@@ -12135,6 +12140,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.381274
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:04.016497+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.768528307558932,2.4017760735670035,0.019896708683473294,2.1704058902419496,12.712509907784781,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.818380+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.49706277342634925,0.7050267891550995,0.3742627620613994,0.6051067348539578,5.585150780214551,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.598289+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7227771508697945,0.8501630142918443,0.005513037004522177,0.5936196496216329,10.92817059287475,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.069494+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.667282+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,20.85712841555336,4.566960522662021,0.04457404800195488,4.5727287149629845,1.6009132641205457,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.162489+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.897694+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7479716566991124,1.3221087915520084,0.15426481251080987,1.1347611106914806,-0.16778998625396938,True
@@ -14590,6 +14596,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.388444
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:04.046435+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.448779926335174,2.7292453034374127,0.018986928104575165,1.7695196476020203,0.0,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.824449+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5558706952682879,0.7455673646749085,0.3821314137056785,0.6627930487889808,0.0,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.609982+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9001313616884451,0.9487525292132006,0.006119227854048573,0.7135177404604658,0.0,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.075039+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.679707+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,21.535802469135803,4.640668321388182,0.04405871388630009,3.807029957692138,0.0,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.173824+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.902775+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7421156397042257,1.3198922833717248,0.1457171943452428,1.0908438583633677,0.0,True
@@ -16910,6 +16917,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.396277
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:04.077547+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.015387354286827,2.003843146128665,0.015614541765599468,1.432045760112577,29.94890503605827,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.831572+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.10490430136664483,0.3238893350615991,0.16018067743721282,0.17002106361033203,68.24810203143848,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.620572+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.044700543858908,1.022105935732157,0.005691793719669117,0.6229188914443564,-7.43350526891811,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.080467+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.207266645822808e-16,2.2819436114467878e-08,,2.1204395211915635e-08,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.683181+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,15.042817401812952,3.8785071099345623,0.03666966637679234,3.7403553293649474,17.750765584460087,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.178184+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8606889965586045e-16,1.9648636076223217e-08,,1.9419258577311766e-08,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.908210+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.35779752740937604,0.5981617903288173,0.0627388858025345,0.40092986350558546,65.92263594392523,True
@@ -18887,6 +18895,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.410744
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:04.096406+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.287800094822252,1.1348128016647734,0.005483744223600898,0.6207394089792937,70.51935444525022,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.837605+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2257303513989315,1.1071270710261454,0.5751343917358654,0.7892400445769592,-37.598746216709245,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.633298+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.494372859721504,1.222445442431483,0.006968210606734128,0.8455981543055013,-24.816890808534612,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.095095+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.688686+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,14.56793921252895,3.816796983404927,0.03659642101334059,3.7534680804171376,19.29955991277623,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.182789+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.916299+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5937987429117937,0.7705833782997098,0.08016602610722302,0.6508801531437828,49.15920315137653,True
@@ -20962,6 +20971,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.424861
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:04.156516+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.5604306904376648,1.2491720019427528,0.007857798378140319,0.8910723025747094,65.35921387979224,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.855989+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.47906773711663314,0.6921471932447846,0.35912131339834885,0.3237604643294658,7.421017110618781,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.651460+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9526536181939007,0.9760397626090347,0.005711541894488389,0.6323103712364265,-2.834773439753967,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.117839+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.701889+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,14.537197691555066,3.812767720640095,0.03655635865736763,3.841713739272502,19.401227362306255,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.191766+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.929024+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3803086061014676,0.616691662098222,0.06683787203760601,0.38593492858776407,64.16280987620374,True
@@ -23575,6 +23585,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.417780
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:04.116546+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.238399913166375,1.4961283077217593,0.006518794838899101,1.178752843987847,53.78634545342452,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.844092+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.01266149974245286,0.11252332976966536,0.05840563769027464,0.09650721781654636,95.54589877105775,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.644781+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7703098987450588,0.8776730021739639,0.005658163673677518,0.5957596964832665,7.771686800270708,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.103284+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.694468+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,16.765922079093418,4.094621115450539,0.0373666130129911,4.126301972477491,12.453435051041085,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.187057+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.923691+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.32866668832112883,0.5732945912191469,0.058026119799378495,0.4626809309765442,68.25676133381562,True
@@ -25894,6 +25905,7 @@ future-43148c168c3dea81d865,2026-07-19T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T05:18:36.431853
 future-44a30bab6f85eaa4c099,2026-07-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-25T14:43:04.189491+00:00,2026-07-25T08:32:19.847010+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.044847421010131,1.74494911702609,0.01338397886986826,1.1271392657385206,41.96768533465368,True
 future-4501e4c151bec19c7587,2026-07-19T15:12:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.861853+00:00,2026-07-19T09:22:24.267187+00:00,prequential-v1,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7344939319678042,0.8570262142827395,0.1813855249720542,0.26428838086909046,-13.842849759615612,True
 future-4532a6bafae7a704c95f,2026-07-20T18:00:00+00:00,2026-07-21T01:28:59.661448+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.956953+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0201197098985342,1.0100097573283806,0.006277868715366505,0.7052571419500545,-6.248576031827206,True
+future-453ac222c6deb8134094,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T06:17:57.125073+00:00,2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.731667510206862e-05,0.005226535669262061,,0.0002785120417145124,-100.00000000000001,False
 future-45f17e73bb57bbf4f5b2,2026-07-18T09:10:00+00:00,2026-07-18T09:34:23.707110+00:00,2026-07-18T03:22:26.275846+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,19.0650166636985,4.366350497119821,0.04171436512459135,3.446097384046646,6.085556543461833,True
 future-461d33436c0bfcf6a3d1,2026-07-17T13:15:00+00:00,2026-07-19T13:51:49.201752+00:00,2026-07-19T12:37:50.995463+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0198291465802043e-05,0.005495297213600193,,0.00028521000729058333,-100.0,False
 future-468838bf17f4ab3260a9,2026-07-19T17:00:00+00:00,2026-07-19T18:53:24.935023+00:00,2026-07-18T17:08:02.689433+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5370570282330741,0.7328417484239514,0.06568059242750443,0.3856177364663934,52.872633496511504,True

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ model,dataset,domain,frequency,prediction_lengths,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,Stabili
 ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.0362152760069723,1.262423873577054,0.014552071672063134,1.1868424577746526,9.843546699249252,2.1311933119335262,0.03426791277258567,0.45576305814672124,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9083101123257313,1.261258169978178,0.011845155708664644,1.1042089583487873,17.948263157190265,1.7646338660449543,-0.19354838709677422,0.12407814866273859,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.645855357964576,0.37759979269723765,,0.1546304137212198,-31.742673379137045,73.6766063170563,0.04732036920489715,0.2897896778477299,265,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526528e-15,9.786828912128035e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,1.579235213006239e-30,0.0,1.0,522,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526528e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,1.5792323151541413e-30,0.0,1.0,523,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 ARIMA,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.0372713909008047,1.338757409135639,0.08841225349586862,1.0471920629078773,-60.04842052552159,1.3229518329527603,-0.019704433497536943,0.8964941426465813,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.2098797276852824,0.9701421965736446,1.2996166848240107,0.7595856836674688,5.0476421205324415,1.1843632558775448,0.07951374499240227,0.020480771285173893,381,0.9973753280839895,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.642668390401371,1.4291009307200675,0.13270701076162955,1.0415510999232118,11.598549038427826,3.392521142542207,-0.1264049636081613,0.001329558197059011,290,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -15,7 +15,7 @@ ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.125765698900247
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6143995287769621,1.071300987091728,0.010071875487467954,0.7740100183681309,28.269168769570957,1.8996766414901718,0.07963854998066172,0.06675174172264038,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.3984175942567205,0.32590039350821914,,0.14298005079176251,-30.992855040297055,72.2843642475897,0.024415750561938065,0.5759335560731229,276,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.7296862743653318e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,3.855418189661468e-34,0.0,1.0,542,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.7296862743653318e-18,1.3151753777977037e-09,,2.3561627471096824e-09,0.0,3.855411627554691e-34,0.0,1.0,543,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3050272072682975,0.4849039749140633,0.03248454496927092,0.32868574233935344,8.695873973865309,0.3637335838792971,-0.31034482758620685,0.018062900791912716,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3286348192869535,0.4790181944446496,0.4816520916270794,0.3146984573024241,50.418544569657946,0.42258392388579624,-0.04566416040100251,0.17258153623157835,400,0.9975,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.7878878465279024,1.4852479970989572,0.14705923915976638,1.011446662698795,7.310432629870646,3.4682706268177075,-0.04823123382226057,0.20901726293026146,305,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -28,7 +28,7 @@ Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.362298354965361,0.9909761575747218,0.009923004027311918,0.7225046602720693,22.098942754948517,1.5901846812739464,0.22059578839239857,1.3058414977773687e-05,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.23778084293641,0.4641051072260941,,0.18662898052441418,-24.123396095264898,86.80277298156264,0.025824332225607597,0.6234950094120787,191,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.0941039077622845e-12,1.045994219755676e-06,,3.2148618499168915e-06,-100.0,2.022013015310309e-28,0.0,1.0,400,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.0941039077622845e-12,1.045994219755676e-06,,3.214861849916891e-06,-100.0,2.0220066965097633e-28,0.0,1.0,401,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.34961672975930663,0.4845803469664631,0.032520078799656196,0.33712340507115973,9.025963259699289,0.562485284793877,-0.19999999999999996,0.16991295403230983,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3279387215792386,1.0459502283988897,1.0933371640616079,0.7022932172411729,6.858912342188647,1.0721363247607556,-0.0005761032377001959,0.9888711885297796,264,0.9962121212121212,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.03953168262844,1.5710343092675203,0.141761317242231,1.076496996460011,-1.470514477674246,3.759265705643246,-0.05991001657589392,0.2009202188216379,206,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -41,7 +41,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.58882279
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9075679929227745,1.145442111216266,0.010256259035586813,0.8906745144318265,25.146768370353712,2.4464040828135194,0.09780176385415296,0.033282650029523714,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.664303480374945,0.37329833495879805,,0.1511984935015667,-31.7103570784273,73.73175583875448,0.08279391330474933,0.06400484082158506,265,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526528e-15,9.786828912128035e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,1.579235213006239e-30,0.0,1.0,522,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526528e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,1.5792323151541413e-30,0.0,1.0,523,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 ETS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,5.660516480548183,2.225192339732908,0.15960783427971914,1.7959679609048849,-79.30302139698192,3.8990647260009315,0.04926108374384236,0.7239201974279224,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 ETS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.9164463481743605,1.2320353512594178,1.472985591956702,0.9363153024890022,-12.250073538797745,1.7082829356389155,0.09783119215361238,0.00435433019694368,381,0.9973753280839895,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 ETS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,5.881789957840418,1.9109640170752107,0.18518516691996545,1.5271174639958454,-5.23247461085654,12.036677544706185,-0.17752058226941891,6.56305097443338e-06,290,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -54,7 +54,7 @@ ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3295117699164924,0.9463672571957353,0.008979569418290392,0.6916022759067921,31.367009216121886,1.6457491264731656,0.30895702405890946,9.19671354596505e-10,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.190430554927948,0.4617185900073623,,0.18424026551824013,-24.115869956010062,86.58404694781929,0.013433887211502828,0.7980344214011474,192,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.2167879962794953e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,2.527508370637204e-29,0.0,1.0,401,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,402,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.34076853139363533,0.5028654711604497,0.033287769041700964,0.34285408620963204,0.43057480191444525,0.537567756002475,-0.22666666666666663,0.11834341824544657,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.7117365269675556,0.7101050966007989,0.8620743131122589,0.47072198684077,38.29749292665518,0.8625407588622177,0.05117209834190967,0.21448361246753145,265,0.9962264150943396,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8688820113851063,1.5111751889082585,0.13646046897449665,1.0171774950623418,3.351648045559635,3.682506707780746,-0.029914529914529916,0.5210370980061367,208,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -67,7 +67,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.3257669497
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.5860092119298526,1.3524317650973139,0.012695978639958229,1.1287234384232716,13.44189853303409,2.9101870458041974,-0.008907024702733534,0.8462843005375524,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.698402884636236,0.3937140027669556,,0.17030110284926456,-32.48789654246491,73.74059283651317,0.07258832483881413,0.10441635153810179,265,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526528e-15,9.786828912128035e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,1.579235213006239e-30,0.0,1.0,522,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526528e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,1.5792323151541413e-30,0.0,1.0,523,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.9273834742740605,0.9016982078707616,0.0646813713439241,0.6859666764987647,-41.28342324098874,0.6697749727682409,-0.05911330049261083,0.668894784416208,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.4086011163971446,1.0308301294415168,2.072721228714386,0.9014171625388095,5.472133924051279,1.5739656513152704,0.15634756181793066,5.195438253615829e-06,381,0.9973753280839895,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.631290839671014,1.4332679737031624,0.1416579623183331,1.136058821099961,11.467976619468008,3.4999974058427137,-0.09375969454719008,0.017282926369031178,290,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.023478
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.089598510340393,1.5130203684629175,0.01368788348877177,1.0266377342367037,0.0,3.1864761823370666,-0.013119213724715898,0.775230539748514,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.978047460741655,0.4347647311562464,,0.17035891000060693,0.0,73.63724881979373,0.1420542506045585,0.003632974420670664,266,0.0,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,523,0.0,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,524,0.0,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39647700304925787,0.54863940015927,0.03875276121808834,0.39106434616248387,0.0,0.46887968125286356,-0.33004926108374383,0.011674730549296571,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.4797251675632443,1.068532087076426,2.1035877580499567,0.9393186549550592,0.0,1.5983477358646545,0.17524838191037637,3.148068962528472e-07,382,0.9973821989528796,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.0722296870151973,1.5799632771322931,0.1496278236622612,1.2811680142484092,0.0,3.592425197906636,-0.08979736935655883,0.02237146474422088,291,1.0,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -93,7 +93,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.865413
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.3336485273273295,1.369431003685908,0.014044892580721374,1.0786778106569637,3.2340679926689107,2.076739478282935,-0.15919790758500432,0.00125367582101177,186,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.735732046068512,0.4132198726900958,,0.16086321874405216,-30.91698650251186,79.45374854983554,0.02875028982146997,0.5181388367558106,228,0.0,2026-07-01T00:15:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,6.689238184167847e-16,2.3306979146575092e-08,,2.0237441599620476e-08,0.0,1.4252725091759864e-15,0.0,1.0,453,0.0,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,6.685973929678101e-16,2.3305905263244463e-08,,2.023957145339205e-08,0.0,1.4237154807810496e-15,0.0,1.0,454,0.0,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 Sundial,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.30978891113489,0.4956772566894806,0.032907023608860275,0.3317689795201935,4.092702437208488,0.35559679062311217,-0.37321937321937326,0.005900024667731748,27,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3870166695327117,0.5388540940885383,0.7886290889375925,0.35591626912535035,53.314928814853026,0.38459316936346444,0.03390168909475702,0.3678910416373625,317,0.9968454258675079,2026-07-01T07:24:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.2068171045462255,1.6532986732723154,0.1655272503431966,1.2290265733958226,-4.921866333476962,3.5435589077989937,-0.10013831258644537,0.02061141750810736,241,1.0,2026-06-30T09:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -106,7 +106,7 @@ Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.3116635320842
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2930236112584452,0.9657022022428051,0.009435472005290437,0.8282398664622558,23.80957906614156,1.5209091532305468,0.3034135726914185,3.4484971719621384e-09,172,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.488471464961265,0.47862384218407905,,0.19025168052331193,-24.425143639415577,87.96848762471043,0.01920663735260189,0.7200028290014815,186,0.0,2026-07-01T12:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,386,0.0,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,387,0.0,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3627555185114735,0.5107314929902669,0.03355682757102783,0.40559998873585773,3.718126622914688,0.4992065903079575,-0.23692307692307696,0.09409290644202206,26,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.9684587391656666,0.8694076121333468,0.9236492339025404,0.7080759284007276,22.745805125806623,0.8988324401892442,-0.01921353907416625,0.6535512025390484,246,0.9959349593495935,2026-07-01T12:54:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.9011134846321696,1.5120083014532495,0.13555876677473053,1.2778606486823414,3.1923669104628583,3.778619118493681,-0.03663758921490881,0.4468997368955213,195,1.0,2026-06-30T13:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -119,7 +119,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.33052701666
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6044818304930752,1.0733341728449766,0.00990931419231941,0.775637081946561,29.88973440242601,1.785704738010647,0.053788604049214615,0.21659803303164127,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.416979888006884,0.3223206444631647,,0.14302218692282778,-30.992231083135476,72.41941103317795,-0.010170516836173961,0.8161768313478145,275,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,2.044036840704184e-18,1.42969816419557e-09,,1.3977486927145102e-09,0.0,3.855424776061114e-34,0.0,1.0,541,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,542,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 TiRex,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.30586831742315235,0.47141716039930026,0.031164447064971287,0.32074666933005247,14.706159785040878,0.396419029203761,-0.2807881773399014,0.03315447182691332,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3914620092544251,0.5226759197116431,0.6170064879662301,0.3486725188424674,45.64680805889104,0.501022473143983,-0.028070175438596495,0.40178591060122304,400,0.9975,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.895640253536301,1.508523968610139,0.15034840281052772,1.0296021159005146,5.895901483706021,3.5968041503855366,-0.14234844537085287,0.00021426313539021729,304,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -132,7 +132,7 @@ TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.284495726475147
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6453848622382907,1.0815005714223864,0.010579608774461076,0.8863769556681769,27.825438502908504,1.8968683448062447,0.06908388757777299,0.1132848151615818,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.416918612407265,0.32314991784933267,,0.1329173884267448,-28.69373397721969,72.41822174281357,0.10361181457002351,0.019232861173099587,275,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,541,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,542,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3226648021472211,0.5095483963504411,0.038763270367779684,0.36433482943848794,2.8079116098780363,0.3359394049576855,-0.3546798029556649,0.006518643400864223,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.17448931469062262,0.35656673752797174,0.26484915186726404,0.2748904753855771,62.61501599360679,0.2045072475628232,-0.011151475260433147,0.7397038857137405,398,0.9974874371859297,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.6979168803211935,1.4701912573594818,0.13257353065894328,1.2309706076189924,7.170898002036358,3.2637140341094106,-0.09727288518325516,0.011424178344997619,304,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00
@@ -145,7 +145,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.262893428
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.28199037431467,1.2978356815478813,0.009816543535913609,0.7495388373219307,-0.37220432904438483,2.8635395035234312,0.19739292364990688,8.348137639666252e-05,180,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,11.77251576698867,1.4953558523385855,,0.18784508264848965,-87.84260567397124,86.89842758134664,0.002181500872600349,0.964161642636905,192,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.5398412931527119,0.3094633880526106,,0.00027574498332555664,-100.0,3.513342568818696,-0.014678468698690173,0.6598714619078809,403,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T20:10:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.5385051199436088,0.3087103265368102,,0.0002757518324799847,-100.0,3.5090836510389116,-0.017271454192565663,0.6041225060447398,404,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.6842781864590141,0.6536203898554627,0.031095016624194248,0.31729018203317877,-12.202435017151721,1.3289735382530592,-0.20666666666666664,0.1556965251316672,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3122149672366819,0.9631675017453174,0.7635797715635193,0.39394466459514893,16.331076814203552,2.481563307623274,0.01878291233702233,0.6474024140869519,267,0.9962546816479401,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T01:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,55.893550851653345,5.115976641537143,0.13016770391072469,1.02535087139364,-65.06094840341238,181.27678755574658,-0.08206880838459785,0.07686337263333232,210,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:32.637736+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:10.199850+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",
@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@
     "frequency",
     "prediction_length"
   ],
-  "num_configs": 12,
+  "num_configs": 13,
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_rows_missing_prediction_length": 0
 }

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,6 +35,18 @@ Hazards,Toto-1.0,0.5447067827362504,0.6198857623270299,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.5159030493533491,0.6552873663892604,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.5234081583087049,0.7154825875538315,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,0.999629604599128,0.707716762271388,1,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.8837777777779868,0.8318514644351539,2,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Sundial,0.7169457146463295,0.8879194379351649,3,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ETS,0.6594740091465209,0.9746906817639044,4,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TiRex,1.0950061337711912,1.0120641317327677,6,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,0.7859391479132077,1.0398921248304323,7,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.0621448732353749,1.1007670318731235,8,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,0.9803612181482216,1.233648004890988,9,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.1451138792621596,1.306230026308965,10,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-2,2.457496578202893,1.3091303454283423,11,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ARIMA,1.5227614333785564,3.981677710914025,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,Sundial,0.5749554484519669,0.6168000987906006,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Moving-Average,0.5706978288447551,0.7670598909081885,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TiRex,0.7805865358856795,0.8314218866847364,3,2,2,1.0
@@ -52,13 +64,13 @@ Transportation,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,TiRex,1.0,1397.7486927145103,4,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Chronos-2,1.0,2356.162747109683,5,1,1,1.0
-Transportation,Sundial,1.0,19182.283441501037,6,1,1,1.0
+Transportation,Sundial,1.0,21204.395211915653,6,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,ARIMA,1.0,250217.138218906,7,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,ETS,1.0,250217.138218906,8,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Moving-Average,1.0,250217.138218906,9,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Moirai-2.0,1.0,410051.5180343537,10,1,1,1.0
 Transportation,Chronos-Bolt,1.094103907762285,3214861.8499168884,11,1,1,1.0
-Transportation,Toto-1.0,15649101168.4337,282952754.08669984,12,1,1,1.0
+Transportation,Toto-1.0,27316675.10206863,278512041.71450025,12,1,1,1.0
 Web,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 Web,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 Web,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,6 +11,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Chronos-2,1.0556494832507781,1.1392385682255801,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Chronos-Bolt,1.4884642794846972,1.4269476835433796,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,TabPFN-TS,1.7478073281306592,1.5117066126516778,12,1,1,1.0
+15min,TabPFN-TS,0.999629604599128,0.707716762271388,1,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moving-Average,0.8837777777779868,0.8318514644351539,2,1,1,1.0
+15min,Sundial,0.7169457146463295,0.8879194379351649,3,1,1,1.0
+15min,ETS,0.6594740091465209,0.9746906817639044,4,1,1,1.0
+15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5,1,1,1.0
+15min,TiRex,1.0950061337711912,1.0120641317327677,6,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moirai-2.0,0.7859391479132077,1.0398921248304323,7,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0621448732353749,1.1007670318731235,8,1,1,1.0
+15min,TimesFM-2.5,0.9803612181482216,1.233648004890988,9,1,1,1.0
+15min,Toto-1.0,1.1451138792621596,1.306230026308965,10,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-2,2.457496578202893,1.3091303454283423,11,1,1,1.0
+15min,ARIMA,1.5227614333785564,3.981677710914025,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0
@@ -52,13 +64,13 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 5min,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,2,2,1.0
 5min,Chronos-2,1.0,2075.594868502009,4,2,2,1.0
 5min,TiRex,1.0,2413.6848893618544,5,2,2,1.0
-5min,Sundial,1.0,32018.044980041133,6,2,2,1.0
+5min,Sundial,1.0,33663.371004648085,6,2,2,1.0
 5min,ARIMA,1.0,252290.1359197037,7,2,2,1.0
 5min,ETS,1.0,252290.1359197037,8,2,2,1.0
 5min,Moving-Average,1.0,252290.1359197037,9,2,2,1.0
 5min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0459942197556757,461166.5554836744,10,2,2,1.0
 5min,Moirai-2.0,1.0,374952.8836038598,11,2,2,1.0
-5min,Toto-1.0,148897583784.93082,283406411.4371265,12,2,2,1.0
+5min,Toto-1.0,6220952279.460259,281173700.57366675,12,2,2,1.0
 6min,Sundial,0.3487673463245832,0.44689652107170585,1,1,1,1.0
 6min,TiRex,0.5103870226749679,0.6114316749197464,2,1,1,1.0
 6min,Moving-Average,0.4551013883720313,0.7312614141590786,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -17,24 +17,24 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,TimesFM-2.5,0.883401733927733,0.8936065549864372,4,2,2,1.0
 12,Chronos-Bolt,0.8576213668056174,1427.1372538860771,5,2,2,1.0
 12,TabPFN-TS,0.9139044671265871,0.9447650776752475,6,2,2,1.0
-12,Sundial,0.8615789003568101,122.88079735770063,7,2,2,1.0
+12,Sundial,0.8615789003568101,129.19532948928773,7,2,2,1.0
 12,ARIMA,0.8639722620545719,438.7361038019728,8,2,2,1.0
 12,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,2,2,1.0
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
-12,Toto-1.0,99431.08120129624,13441.965492708745,11,2,2,1.0
+12,Toto-1.0,4154.238071061318,13336.068021195564,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.3466693008515475,0.678089889219701,1,6,6,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,1.618192729607438,0.6778469079688592,2,6,6,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.7846948996059147,0.7330974285890034,3,6,6,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,0.51297505422539,0.7281567116917389,4,6,6,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.7071762736338502,0.751582408443488,5,6,6,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,0.489236896453428,0.7579000415303258,6,6,6,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.4913786205433592,0.7413327633374442,7,6,6,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.4835495620839355,0.7988651790187212,8,6,6,1.0
-24,ARIMA,2.243081641630822,1.517313266941087,9,6,6,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,1.5684943327142995,1.360464980310184,10,6,6,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,6,6,1.0
-24,ETS,6.602498983187075,2.7981422456755833,12,6,6,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.4085758512546783,0.7180142976265506,1,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.774637915633148,0.7534407506624062,2,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.5438469087347723,0.7364344434733622,3,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,1.5401950951368353,0.7444403613224779,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,0.7494872748169145,0.7936896587845275,5,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,0.5235150392678588,0.7929341546051653,6,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,0.6416464135790687,0.7918061336062976,7,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,1.4450788436674245,1.268139824105587,8,7,7,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.5349218012986626,0.8500278848792263,10,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,2.1223383518149257,1.7415305237551744,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,4.750925813128871,2.406804373987193,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,0.515202967632737,2.703194643045154,1,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.7134835867069769,4.137604035783671,2,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,0.7126889364846917,2.873155666078712,3,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.6613968612858304,6.759683333511157,4,12,12,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.617852939763589,0.8446050835841198,5,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,108.75469042526552,19.726619284522197,6,12,12,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.6802505992406179,0.8672440088525317,7,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.8749111653008289,7.633855719496682,8,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,1.0577032163269555,8.354654303518812,9,12,12,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,1.551916061974736,9.649769757412235,10,12,12,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,12,12,1.0
-Overall,ETS,2.7441438241074967,13.398428884170904,12,12,12,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.5459663917243353,2.506435908890273,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.7137493096494333,3.704107304834278,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.7006936429538118,0.8537886921842355,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,0.7838867387038977,2.7045775806027006,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,0.6702328792840142,5.8531904350726185,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,1.0431871505489274,6.996173716517536,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.6401890943768649,0.8695817712287033,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,47.00741727437956,15.989296618241273,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.8880601960814861,6.577303867143506,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,1.5496537156544312,9.01454496072699,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,2.4590954925226605,10.95219139207079,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.936185+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.754364+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.646820+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.755350+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.036895+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.823787+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.624866+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.651688+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.762848+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.040672+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.889459+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.696375+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.658438+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.769139+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.046895+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/dataset_eval_intervals.json

@@ -10,6 +10,5 @@
     "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5": 3600,
     "open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m": 3600,
     "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count": 3600,
-    "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060": 900,
     "wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews": 86400
 }

results/dataset_properties.csv

@@ -10,4 +10,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature,Weather,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5,Air Quality,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m,Weather,1h,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count,Hazards,1h,1
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060,Hydrology,15min,1
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews,Web,1D,1

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.928346+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.744930+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.665187+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.775241+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.052545+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
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     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.883576+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.679803+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.675531+00:00",
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-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.781420+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.062526+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.916904+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.715519+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.681845+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.787525+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.069494+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,23 +1,17 @@
 {
-    "status": "partial",
+    "status": "ok",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.461124+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:35.014775+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:56.852049+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:12.545409+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
     "task_count": 4,
-    "issued_tasks": 2,
-    "issued_forecasts": 24,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 24,
+    "issued_tasks": 1,
+    "issued_forecasts": 12,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
-    "failed_forecasts": [
-        {
-            "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
-            "dataset": "nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short",
-            "error": "Mean forecast length 10 < 24"
-        }
-    ],
+    "failed_forecasts": [],
     "models": {
         "Chronos-2": {
             "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -25,24 +19,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.823787+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.624866+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.651688+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.762848+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.040672+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -53,24 +38,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.845357+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.643307+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.737103+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.819067+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.117839+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -81,24 +57,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.850272+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.651442+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.715891+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.813102+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.103284+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -109,24 +76,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.858228+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.668344+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.743946+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.826258+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.125073+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -137,24 +95,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.883576+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.679803+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.675531+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.781420+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.062526+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -165,24 +114,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.889459+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.696375+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.658438+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
-                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.769139+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.046895+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 12,
                     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
                 }
             ]
@@ -193,24 +133,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.896441+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.704579+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.701389+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 24,
-                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-                },
-                {
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+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
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+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
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@@ -333,24 +228,15 @@
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-                    "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
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+                    "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
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@@ -376,7 +262,5 @@
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-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-28T06:09:14.316312+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-453ac222c6deb8134094.json

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+}

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

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-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.075039+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Sundial,1.7146618576285901,1.7036796647957921,
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Sundial,0.020980244564637807,0.0447908708599997,nan,nan,0.0023348485467426807,nan,nan,0.14484558869581707,nan,nan,0.15634843776673438,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Sundial,27047.212071285932,27202.68214463723,143.1162110964457,1.5089426812363538,2.4254864254221506,0.8536544624552972,36.2452386153836,164.4603662627745,1.0124792572257424,0.881076689786568,0.7401326095810744,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Sundial,3.8597592120744734e-15,4.070110165539987e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.212696042842006e-08,nan,nan,5.3442813910569505e-08,Climate,1,36
-data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Sundial,3.3215309867717977e-16,4.2045296538101347e-16,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.8225067864816848e-08,nan,nan,1.9182283441501028e-08,Transportation,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Sundial,5.207266645822808e-16,6.348599874188025e-16,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,2.2819436114467878e-08,nan,nan,2.1204395211915635e-08,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Sundial,0.03484559946889979,0.03321369616330838,nan,nan,0.011084302742851744,nan,nan,0.18666976045653402,nan,nan,0.12063016584599584,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Sundial,0.04821187162773686,0.06255171335029873,nan,nan,0.1113706881054695,nan,nan,0.21957201922771685,nan,nan,0.1293380084059859,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Sundial,1.1304476064801594,1.1426146677625701,nan,nan,0.09235264505865295,nan,nan,1.0632250968069552,nan,nan,0.731749763844937,Ocean,1,72

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.914672+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.713001+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.693891+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.800214+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.080467+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.896441+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.704579+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.701389+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.806689+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.095095+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.850272+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.651442+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.715891+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.813102+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.103284+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.845357+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.643307+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.737103+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.819067+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.117839+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Toto-1.0,4.477663680103048,2.0890328378534413,
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Toto-1.0,1.2672091214948127,0.013642740360327242,nan,nan,0.0013252159503021489,nan,nan,1.1257038338278913,nan,nan,0.23265817163880909,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Toto-1.0,23019.0460822337,26241.382774419122,124.61535914738973,1.313879348219856,0.6257435399486769,0.9697879270582787,13.780075922721792,151.7202889604212,0.9340465971435247,0.767178555755332,0.6004176198191844,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Toto-1.0,1.41672612492986,6.629220576377907e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.1902630486282686,nan,nan,0.00028386079613516846,Climate,1,36
-data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Toto-1.0,0.01564910116843379,9.527803671223733e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.12509636752693418,nan,nan,0.00028295275408675446,Transportation,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Toto-1.0,2.731667510206862e-05,6.214720965819995e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.005226535669262061,nan,nan,0.0002785120417145124,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.14581109734968253,0.10758165581966579,nan,nan,0.019716449559055497,nan,nan,0.3818521930664829,nan,nan,0.23765672698505458,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Toto-1.0,0.5938577859053631,0.20279020502719616,nan,nan,0.2032631822843151,nan,nan,0.7706216879282357,nan,nan,0.3000537773009777,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Toto-1.0,2.554995718742831,1.2207269681748636,nan,nan,0.10368288653439751,nan,nan,1.5984353971126988,nan,nan,0.8256745826761597,Ocean,1,72

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,24 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:08:30.858228+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T06:20:07.668344+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-6c0e626b9c4dfac75395",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T05:45:51.445711+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.743946+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-28T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
-            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
-            "task_id": "future-779d817e04d91192cf42",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T06:34:49.859176+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:31.826258+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-453ac222c6deb8134094",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T05:08:34.859328+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T06:17:57.125073+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T21:20:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 12,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]