Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:17.069373+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:15.132398+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27494,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2713,
+  "num_model_releases": 27506,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2714,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
@@ -25,21 +25,21 @@
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2490,
-      "num_unique_releases": 208,
+      "num_model_releases": 2502,
+      "num_unique_releases": 209,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 27012,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2640,
+      "num_model_releases": 27024,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2641,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 5106
+    "prequential-v1": 5118
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,2.5621251494033097,0.9290013729172463,0.12434048221821306,0.7260933034869179,33.37914542726039,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375,5.809054230182905,-0.5111111111111111,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,2.5152356127020106,0.8930473202514371,0.17191474875082158,0.7389431140491598,30.903295358939953,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375,5.677470626529616,-0.7333333333333334,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,2.46165880146373,0.852483209350637,0.10807046370632764,0.7134630088564752,31.582585004955288,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375,5.75061752023899,-0.4444444444444445,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,2.6138962850241563,0.9941450960968808,0.33416244071783396,0.7535808186690532,28.796299149882653,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25,5.527871681057307,-0.6666666666666666,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,2.891118881451147,1.15530726419531,0.7159229584390707,0.9854193802773206,13.15261700226336,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25,5.881239182655082,-0.06666666666666665,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,2.6040304175176523,1.0084619228841527,0.8834926648173542,0.7794165743073395,34.21107259396578,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25,5.76098248957651,-0.2222222222222222,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,2.488512422877211,0.9717283749008138,0.8396280295192382,0.7319374335179386,30.29349727897608,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25,4.894085823009051,-0.5111111111111111,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,4.656994368901263,1.670130606117801,1.6195548519948038,1.2226435321850369,0.0,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375,8.071154314309025,-0.26206317586670197,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,3.6349071574406486,1.4867450747587811,1.5863006366511474,1.2694481265825492,-5.689798618621812,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375,5.7682722918852,-0.2222222222222222,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,3.0003342928222025,1.2403818416882686,0.6394433146799829,0.9850014499569304,9.096372129877482,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375,4.324277693211696,-0.06666666666666667,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,4.103425789547963,1.561624286229199,0.832483705272405,0.83267206532578,-1.980582480916419,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25,6.129137013497389,-0.4222222222222222,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,5.333785923534364,1.6530595340967214,0.4539879892029385,1.366863560952609,-6.820648797138447,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375,5.554014036904121,-0.28888888888888886,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,2.5621251494033097,0.9290013729172463,0.12434048221821306,0.7260933034869179,33.37914542726039,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375,5.809054230182905,-0.5111111111111111,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,2.5152356127020106,0.8930473202514371,0.17191474875082158,0.7389431140491598,30.903295358939953,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375,5.677470626529616,-0.7333333333333334,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,2.46165880146373,0.852483209350637,0.10807046370632764,0.7134630088564752,31.582585004955288,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375,5.75061752023899,-0.4444444444444445,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,2.6138962850241563,0.9941450960968808,0.33416244071783396,0.7535808186690532,28.796299149882653,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25,5.527871681057307,-0.6666666666666666,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,2.891118881451147,1.15530726419531,0.7159229584390707,0.9854193802773206,13.15261700226336,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25,5.881239182655082,-0.06666666666666665,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,2.6040304175176523,1.0084619228841527,0.8834926648173542,0.7794165743073395,34.21107259396578,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25,5.76098248957651,-0.2222222222222222,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,2.488512422877211,0.9717283749008138,0.8396280295192382,0.7319374335179386,30.29349727897608,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25,4.894085823009051,-0.5111111111111111,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,4.656994368901263,1.670130606117801,1.6195548519948038,1.2226435321850369,0.0,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375,8.071154314309025,-0.26206317586670197,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,3.6349071574406486,1.4867450747587811,1.5863006366511474,1.2694481265825492,-5.689798618621812,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375,5.7682722918852,-0.2222222222222222,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,3.0003342928222025,1.2403818416882686,0.6394433146799829,0.9850014499569304,9.096372129877482,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375,4.324277693211696,-0.06666666666666667,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,4.103425789547963,1.561624286229199,0.832483705272405,0.83267206532578,-1.980582480916419,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25,6.129137013497389,-0.4222222222222222,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,5.333785923534364,1.6530595340967214,0.4539879892029385,1.366863560952609,-6.820648797138447,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375,5.554014036904121,-0.28888888888888886,0.0,6,14,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-28T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,13.964216681681469,0.8766748768673096,0.15915711880235775,0.639531975410521,23.49319599981803,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375,135.63965947637251,0.04008588397985475,0.3076923076923077,13,2593,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.130293760114192,0.8804659304002265,0.19483345140465494,0.6726317468903452,24.745643861133978,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375,138.3480277717393,0.03276199721502142,0.15384615384615385,13,2580,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.012646727045656,0.8768215343220948,0.13711288933756363,0.718982198468441,24.00636127187906,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375,135.88955311800248,0.038183715384964324,0.23076923076923078,13,2574,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.402253521528824,0.9238425400736054,0.24010369730368095,0.6698952678381829,22.126646034351058,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25,154.89027091736,0.07031665051454633,0.15384615384615385,13,1895,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.039335253873713,0.9714762390283825,0.20229440461106352,0.8167740991408414,18.510810007061473,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25,162.10857689430193,0.04957581093934249,0.15384615384615385,13,1786,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.659690340871542,0.9700569135863577,0.2755508102147842,0.717746419553688,11.52881802292285,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25,155.81916245362117,0.02885928731527225,0.15384615384615385,13,1882,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.079724920115908,1.0104083002381865,0.224092675483859,0.7635917129817145,16.170523756643938,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25,149.92527653087393,0.0066855816378083195,0.3076923076923077,13,2134,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.793951654411273,1.2365582995549398,0.3682743344328255,0.9632571959226699,0.0,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375,140.81199209761593,0.03159267132420402,0.3076923076923077,13,2420,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.52531277419858,1.1409846896759128,0.34361265107824196,0.9169483273962219,3.1582675758297336,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375,141.0453634444793,0.07936721606279866,0.15384615384615385,13,2413,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.448410199021588,1.1434285698333904,0.34655723092552154,0.9008768714766797,1.9552060905463111,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375,141.04791798685847,0.06080750838023545,0.15384615384615385,13,2413,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.19292012540528,1.6580753570125402,0.2822474769888871,0.7004745430622447,-19.078884433980285,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25,211.78917236092758,-0.004886043245355339,0.15384615384615385,13,1909,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.163327391070045,1.3948162110374975,0.31463170182208483,1.106439092841402,-3.324005023813522,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375,145.69698558242368,0.07453740428318316,0.15384615384615385,13,2413,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,13.963454768270662,0.8756928240213582,0.15908206892189922,0.6389856999815786,23.498003565519426,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375,135.63941787066796,0.036737209861949865,0.3076923076923077,13,2594,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.129466377943848,0.8793801279507375,0.19474952462369338,0.6721205076966031,24.848001911897654,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375,138.34771343842905,0.029062676592623873,0.23076923076923078,13,2581,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.011869428679141,0.8758433873174488,0.13704336383247778,0.7184313736290233,23.981243270510543,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375,135.88942309647607,0.03436166848599434,0.23076923076923078,13,2575,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.40125892307394,0.9225553076852009,0.2400022186120392,0.6691460503863981,22.304398478723247,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25,154.8897516212299,0.06574071363091713,0.23076923076923078,13,1896,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.038295034875887,0.9703528737517325,0.20220918958417508,0.8159210404457853,18.5100556200063,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25,162.1081523824676,0.04515766498273499,0.23076923076923078,13,1787,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.658678892519433,0.9688836525144182,0.275456482192318,0.7170868771771273,11.624471162053899,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25,155.8186008175726,0.024598932285686444,0.15384615384615385,13,1883,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.07887583552701,1.00925906043858,0.22400269154415628,0.7628491113308636,16.28081239450482,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25,149.9250901100719,0.00300379334063542,0.3076923076923077,13,2135,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.7929101646102,1.2354201016993966,0.3681790808999196,0.9624383714752451,0.0,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375,140.81167872351205,0.028384255808096195,0.3076923076923077,13,2421,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.525215088455827,1.1410876233432001,0.343620566524847,0.9171675534847492,2.9970193259720683,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375,141.04446831077806,0.0799633151204362,0.15384615384615385,13,2414,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.44918320598718,1.143931809071862,0.34656089010453095,0.9012294732951257,1.8395605829086459,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375,141.0463607211647,0.06094776698203252,0.15384615384615385,13,2414,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.190947498953786,1.6565332925160994,0.28216947289120126,0.6998775848918226,-19.033435905860564,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25,211.78761069268162,-0.009580323324250798,0.15384615384615385,13,1910,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.162318805847484,1.3950121993886997,0.3145864490268973,1.106520992851705,-3.3845058168738476,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375,145.69169195879329,0.07369585267240077,0.15384615384615385,13,2414,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-29T05:10:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,127.3088966758302,1.8237237196780944,0.15606175816520027,1.6197437006670528,15.96255286709622,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375,449.0818100776468,-0.14954987665003772,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,128.14830016137012,1.7958649644850824,0.15695525227970206,1.9206495297794062,18.985915109125855,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375,457.9076831301584,-0.13987930694181544,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,127.18910572558175,1.8020021915031108,0.13862106541968347,1.6746451144739318,15.905264502610015,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375,449.09482778040723,-0.1735601971501018,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,127.25097270824476,1.8415966927191754,0.2354717753548863,1.6193523506257679,13.023052342431646,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25,449.2122514891025,-0.07407674166306641,0.09090909090909091,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,127.42724715317445,1.8962904629155304,0.21954422226539172,1.7687639245622926,9.977990873834251,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25,449.18807757729735,-0.04781852835201852,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,127.25061201523584,1.8607943505978972,0.2622594327407731,1.6520046151879837,3.962456554812587,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25,449.2833815838956,-0.08306129366176652,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,127.33910239340076,1.8540987564595417,0.24762909150331483,1.6585092954137437,13.107826760724516,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25,449.13243781682735,-0.1717190991281219,0.09090909090909091,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,127.86204792770923,2.0622300021067828,0.37312332490032035,1.6846318130144817,0.0,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375,449.6971568982515,-0.10287808689417739,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,127.6644613587523,2.0459853524040756,0.39146445381504036,1.8567309932692106,-7.021267603782443,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375,449.407031072744,-0.0906398770699745,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,127.77897531994505,2.126390268436224,0.3151496665542603,1.8603115414072127,-11.329909299753231,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375,449.2703703805444,0.0648774646133751,0.09090909090909091,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,171.91771973259168,2.443714654370926,0.2239773279066488,1.5372827954723347,-26.13223183021362,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25,576.0207733756862,-0.056596631628283364,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,129.2520777843475,2.455495109663465,0.4379700853700788,2.1823337495177286,-19.647962519705082,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375,451.1369535647395,0.06522796871424372,0.0,11,207,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,127.30714922071648,1.820119492622009,0.1558639095683717,1.618170328971981,15.926461194417634,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375,449.0822118227786,-0.16167108877124983,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,128.14672504582336,1.791901415734188,0.15669914282988912,1.9192955803405318,19.576598086131263,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375,457.9082603231096,-0.15200051906302756,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,127.18688947845162,1.798216327076603,0.1384786078457522,1.6731647820524833,15.684457352613295,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375,449.09424680048744,-0.18568140927131385,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,127.24761613775367,1.8353559398514656,0.23504820780522362,1.6162110351758094,14.241736842448042,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25,449.2123321978672,-0.09831916590549064,0.09090909090909091,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,127.42195262506871,1.8907700074921592,0.21920267991794035,1.7649674605281724,9.976747197627969,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25,449.18377834608293,-0.08418216471565487,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,127.24856659734411,1.8562322902773725,0.26195809361164385,1.6503066670919508,4.539836080079793,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25,449.28458790575405,-0.10730371790419077,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,127.33751550660341,1.8502907707978644,0.2473794186194374,1.6564395437290755,13.520390304946323,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25,449.1328515150016,-0.1959615233705461,0.09090909090909091,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,127.85822839645438,2.0571340064132224,0.3727096366353562,1.680963325272767,0.0,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375,449.6955270930081,-0.12712051113660164,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,127.66016658053108,2.0440692559367615,0.39141693078663664,1.8561413738763235,-7.5343933588476935,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375,449.4030094114543,-0.1088216952517927,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,127.77389587343009,2.1250285052728897,0.3150462997812558,1.859528523414499,-11.645642967025259,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375,449.2613617034285,0.04063504037095084,0.09090909090909091,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,171.9140540289335,2.4380352849579427,0.2237517407652538,1.5352759783395065,-25.9911992167617,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25,576.0216516395095,-0.10508148011313186,0.0,11,209,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,129.23188981251613,2.4522481194541554,0.4376784889041964,2.179830724040025,-19.840922476224474,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375,451.10404443051925,0.053106756593031594,0.0,11,208,0.8181818181818182,2026-07-22T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,13.960230360370995,0.8756882447363593,0.15929695233871624,0.639316182759093,23.517514709382056,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375,135.63504688506805,0.03681891683791576,0.23076923076923078,13,2658,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.12501001390608,0.8786490615212503,0.19473179395854825,0.6721444407224598,24.726562599891757,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375,138.34225433616194,0.03618339432944357,0.23076923076923078,13,2644,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.007525591821603,0.8753489449153806,0.13711126184890696,0.7174175311660103,23.94479392469291,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375,135.8871824844731,0.03723272682359337,0.23076923076923078,13,2639,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.402253521528824,0.9238425400736054,0.24010369730368095,0.6698952678381829,22.126646034351058,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25,154.89027091736,0.07031665051454633,0.15384615384615385,13,1895,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.038815696996327,0.9712596505799931,0.20229117186794163,0.8166492591042415,18.617751431434254,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25,162.10787842813372,0.050838138355516045,0.15384615384615385,13,1787,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.659690340871542,0.9700569135863577,0.2755508102147842,0.717746419553688,11.52881802292285,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25,155.81916245362117,0.02885928731527225,0.15384615384615385,13,1882,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.080055490088373,1.0108626483515253,0.22413520769070502,0.7639446287980266,16.16354691209747,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25,149.92478987719164,0.005195333993714532,0.3076923076923077,13,2135,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.784518018329399,1.2338651255472435,0.3682970249417845,0.9617793298208224,0.0,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375,140.80560988624774,0.04108220009149984,0.3076923076923077,13,2493,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.525630423718054,1.1418203896938457,0.3439661045305767,0.9179748364174002,3.0064678355280914,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375,141.04536069111413,0.06732415770631753,0.15384615384615385,13,2484,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.461251323648746,1.1471083113296277,0.34715046499125274,0.903902345941867,1.7376009197826172,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375,141.0595756787325,0.0434068978451739,0.15384615384615385,13,2484,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.19292012540528,1.6580753570125402,0.2822474769888871,0.7004745430622447,-19.078884433980285,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25,211.78917236092758,-0.004886043245355339,0.15384615384615385,13,1909,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.256343715204075,1.4079570078394654,0.31620273791580167,1.1171404918216683,-3.8066257762895246,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375,145.9488991864214,0.05093513774051355,0.15384615384615385,13,2484,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,13.959487628184586,0.8747627015750974,0.15922494834076895,0.6387895376514046,23.52017284820306,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375,135.63485959678636,0.033635892965236704,0.23076923076923078,13,2659,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.124241321388428,0.8776402048011853,0.1946526820307131,0.6716588171206308,24.81933603919666,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375,138.34201832828907,0.032848797891398857,0.23076923076923078,13,2645,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.00675077946212,0.874409426554547,0.13704100342984413,0.716880039293549,23.9257186849166,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375,135.8870852295662,0.03392339247977625,0.23076923076923078,13,2640,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.40125892307394,0.9225553076852009,0.2400022186120392,0.6691460503863981,22.304398478723247,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25,154.8897516212299,0.06574071363091713,0.23076923076923078,13,1896,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.03783324747536,0.9701859132190852,0.20220923268438692,0.815832418880728,18.613064191145096,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25,162.10747718671695,0.04649012169980709,0.23076923076923078,13,1788,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,17.658678892519433,0.9688836525144182,0.275456482192318,0.7170868771771273,11.624471162053899,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25,155.8186008175726,0.024598932285686444,0.15384615384615385,13,1883,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.079224923878638,1.0097382261121426,0.22404691845574717,0.7632159444984092,16.27014584305427,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25,149.92463596707506,0.0017514843960187987,0.3076923076923077,13,2136,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,15.783549293223173,1.2328087517497393,0.3682056657497324,0.9610057271930122,0.0,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375,140.80537755986674,0.03800022459573125,0.3076923076923077,13,2494,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.525250647667738,1.1417718383151858,0.34395721848438465,0.9180501189343667,2.8679139873802604,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375,141.04450731942143,0.06815780681582871,0.15384615384615385,13,2485,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.461301719462226,1.1473530324515535,0.34713448126610646,0.9040612027680853,1.6397748281261575,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375,141.05780608946182,0.04403845020086418,0.15384615384615385,13,2485,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.190947498953786,1.6565332925160994,0.28216947289120126,0.6998775848918226,-19.033435905860564,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25,211.78761069268162,-0.009580323324250798,0.15384615384615385,13,1910,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.254155084663015,1.4078731195309697,0.3161345593464111,1.1170029602615528,-3.8577104384343404,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375,145.94392635063144,0.05050568213864416,0.15384615384615385,13,2485,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6689747833121641,11,2653,13,33.59375
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6671637548953034,11,2644,13,33.59375
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092704590128096,11,2639,13,33.59375
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5780762877829502,11,1895,13,28.25
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5591196073942051,11,1784,13,30.25
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5236585900025073,11,1882,13,28.25
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5123917820162336,11,2133,13,30.25
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620648937315294,11,2484,13,33.59375
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3805098226583856,11,2484,13,33.59375
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3747749839613549,11,2484,13,33.59375
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3736834591304685,11,1909,13,28.25
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661699804604647,11,2484,13,33.59375
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6686036886439872,11,2654,13,33.59375
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6668978816586079,11,2645,13,33.59375
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6084168745385355,11,2640,13,33.59375
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5790714464704165,11,1896,13,28.25
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5588779402294609,11,1785,13,30.25
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5237984501423673,11,1883,13,28.25
+7,Official,Sundial,0.513134145066289,11,2134,13,30.25
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3863545641100872,11,2485,13,33.59375
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3802908673333295,11,2485,13,33.59375
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.37468194702481666,11,2485,13,33.59375
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3737641476726955,11,1910,13,28.25
+12,Official,ETS,0.3661080471094067,11,2485,13,33.59375

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -1142,6 +1142,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.126384
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.867704+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.680746+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.032315+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.459657391080611,0.6779803766191254,0.015254467601366208,1.0911009757378656,-4.148206925354846,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.267601+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.056925758158167,1.4341986466867715,0.08313762419760717,1.1091462251330082,-98.20059627154073,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.284704+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.473367+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.91891714908327,1.38524985077901,0.1400150377562951,1.1178740750187393,-97.70810971478826,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.577307+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -3682,6 +3683,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.133606
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.871879+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.718759+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.071193+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.46766119047554405,0.6838575805498862,0.007905167973149461,0.46522569178545187,-5.009525486180728,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.276631+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.015361654568983274,0.123942142021926,0.008723225646655898,0.12329415034084243,9.732548114056193,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.335946+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.2761158361191085e-09,,1.8284365387902989e-09,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.521324+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.028907674441152578,0.17002257038744173,0.016090750669803276,0.14485105562150144,-13.025850263672556,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.612821+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
@@ -6040,6 +6042,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.137400
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.879644+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.811482+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.091563+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.18688054976150958,0.4322968306170074,0.0051711825704424995,0.4058204324653165,38.719830242938464,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.282433+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.007747186746338719,0.08801810465091099,0.005542264374300185,0.11419808179354105,41.356724285994105,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.388918+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2825236033380433e-15,5.729331202974779e-08,,6.615357107869962e-08,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.555361+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.008750872607250092,0.09354609883501339,0.007927105683152691,0.12788010761522306,43.53460075694197,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.623839+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
@@ -8166,6 +8169,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.140936
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.885275+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.836540+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.127578+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6408955093300958,0.8005594976827742,0.009101007451294283,0.6303599235318722,-20.47624414046359,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.293949+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.8069505695355,2.1924758994195352,0.13710890638084808,1.7423306524599145,-99.2260396334593,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.422016+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.604393+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,6.049153190282309,2.4595026306719636,0.2631950077204938,2.2002103266078623,-99.2672313715311,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.662854+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -10409,6 +10413,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.146054
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.890187+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.854656+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.153014+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.21278374675130304,0.461284886757959,0.005280194356236305,0.3795351078211372,33.0684525153918,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.299330+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0045942536419829915,0.06778092387968013,0.00426486323216604,0.08961858750636059,60.51090099971461,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.481983+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.853649481634599e-14,2.8024363474724275e-07,,3.428585403043706e-07,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.660497+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.14999653330247814,0.38729385910762665,0.03592652276698599,0.2867124787516084,-74.17034765091404,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.691124+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
@@ -12545,6 +12550,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.151097
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.895607+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.868527+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.188618+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.044791038156368396,0.21163893346066645,0.0024233645276332716,0.13449609782917926,80.8516677468657,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.316205+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.779270814650002,0.8827631701934568,0.06174897610054578,0.7153268581157453,-95.31942401864274,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.512021+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.696313+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6141528102055355,0.7836790224355475,0.07627574071740746,0.6084805717203666,-93.00919605962672,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.726681+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -15031,6 +15037,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.154951
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.907298+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.885391+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.215582+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.423041225920173,0.6504161943864659,0.006630019192383367,0.47004627101100765,0.0,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.323332+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0186742116220626,0.1366536191326911,0.00860422784088782,0.08935932131652284,0.0,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.533233+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.743371+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.022244649339142386,0.14914640236741342,0.014058877222046387,0.09651213823679422,0.0,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.778639+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -17382,6 +17389,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.158565
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.912090+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8864423599010836e-16,1.9714061884606846e-08,,1.983920730495601e-08,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.897391+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.3375316843528293e-16,2.0826741666311677e-08,,1.9766372214733595e-08,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.234612+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.020980244564637807,0.14484558869581707,0.0023348485467426807,0.15634843776673438,90.54989636346627,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.330474+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.007462810791272632,0.08638756155415334,0.005713939241843377,0.06652789445951113,42.89471330548295,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.561388+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8597592120744734e-15,6.212696042842006e-08,,5.3442813910569505e-08,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.767453+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.012117645450421826,0.110080177372776,0.009650630511746779,0.09528370289051721,29.471267709967144,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.824868+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.764865615722245e-16,2.1828572137733254e-08,,2.0051752316999176e-08,0.0,False
@@ -19390,6 +19398,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.162044
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.916746+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.910351+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.278119+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.09141585747836456,0.3023505539574296,0.003390595242314659,0.2605528443785573,64.46123090600082,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.337604+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0179157366518244,0.1338496793116233,0.009220890055280472,0.11888907028265007,2.0729052814198567,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.610833+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.804342+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.036195160875413294,0.19025025854230343,0.015212215020434244,0.13728089411051447,-23.871589392664106,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.896699+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -21496,6 +21505,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.170684
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.925928+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.963527+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.341395+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3044911716818759,0.5518071870516692,0.006462456928120581,0.43965609435457953,16.29481444799418,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.365702+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0060782355395996865,0.07796303957388838,0.005057510879354289,0.13135346461675806,50.88780111395262,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.671342+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.906315718058047e-17,7.685255830522526e-09,,4.1680416340218845e-09,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.865348+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.021247047160823086,0.14576366886444334,0.010798345922517093,0.1530878098290287,2.2937761885653107,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.992784+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
@@ -24140,6 +24150,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.165366
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.921236+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.926526+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.310162+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.16431138716961843,0.40535341021091514,0.006365738815062364,0.28603521259581766,44.05017241508403,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.344722+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.020487981948980976,0.1431362356252985,0.01557799207705079,0.15471299917863682,-4.631431902883689,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.633800+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.838605+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.038280851185062185,0.19565492885450697,0.026723363565856754,0.15634026040920718,-26.494951230526066,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:20.950230+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -26490,6 +26501,7 @@ future-d4b59d884a20fbf8afd2,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-21T15:52:44.174169
 future-d514790e360241689b20,2026-07-15T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:52:49.935967+00:00,2026-07-16T03:42:41.926637+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.06251318068161656,0.2500263599735367,,0.00027635606738335303,-100.0,False
 future-d55a282752d88834fd19,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T08:40:23.990518+00:00,2026-07-23T07:17:23.220098+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.4000574169202953,0.6325009224659639,,0.0002718807249190528,-100.0,False
 future-d5ca073221198d0ae2a3,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T14:23:39.368463+00:00,2026-07-25T08:52:17.039053+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2672091214948127,1.1257038338278913,0.0013252159503021489,0.23265817163880909,-49.9433647131434,True
+future-d6081e135cb01178d783,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:55:04.373229+00:00,2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00,prequential-v1,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.017530445854179618,0.13240259005842603,0.008785844686044004,0.11551832043051283,3.1591674873143853,True
 future-d669556dd24d6496d885,2026-07-28T03:55:00+00:00,2026-07-28T05:05:49.714988+00:00,2026-07-28T01:34:13.829924+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.41672612492986,1.1902630486282686,,0.00028386079613516846,-100.0,False
 future-d7635aa6f54d159faa30,2026-07-26T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T06:34:21.886501+00:00,2026-07-25T07:03:25.882145+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.11213269486995898,0.33486220280879564,0.014701187672974235,0.16676138553003594,-66.89226227818878,True
 future-d78570c1d7398388a8fd,2026-07-22T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-23T03:29:21.030007+00:00,2026-07-22T13:27:40.672584+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1642443078624487,0.40527066000692513,,0.00028537521613156125,-100.0,False

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -3,7 +3,7 @@ ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.032704925470051,1.261817
 ARIMA,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9083101123257313,1.261258169978178,0.011845155708664644,1.1042089583487873,17.948263157190265,1.7646338660449543,-0.19354838709677422,0.12407814866273859,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.5261732972351965,0.3754834870884529,,0.15359695424618738,-31.52688406720658,72.99390200364189,0.0653249044971009,0.13958983360691873,270,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526525e-15,9.786828912128039e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,1.5791901419002968e-30,0.0,1.0,538,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-ARIMA,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.0372713909008047,1.338757409135639,0.08841225349586862,1.0471920629078773,-60.04842052552159,1.3229518329527603,-0.019704433497536943,0.8964941426465813,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+ARIMA,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.0379265364760504,1.341938783720677,0.0882364325192599,1.0492572016487152,-61.32015971705557,1.2999471724338816,-0.011494252873563218,0.9436180468092228,30,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.2036269882973782,0.9671111754709552,1.310770702210082,0.7576568276801025,5.650440000918894,1.1821945214185992,0.07136640557006092,0.03677839204340806,384,0.9973958333333334,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 ARIMA,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.6385208933872897,1.4283075478167082,0.13257123668271448,1.040856298142758,11.599751322724188,3.387405867464201,-0.1259627917999763,0.0013559336904469704,291,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.224989505012516,0.8376872389949994,0.03753078258092905,0.6302451084156856,31.472996936085384,9.894620159763747,0.07644529383659818,0.2804556277713832,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -16,7 +16,7 @@ Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6103921393088825,1.0
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.287623538311989,0.323442589414922,,0.1425480999248279,-30.78622516846082,71.64082177911321,0.04120574720696438,0.34018013883074594,281,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.729686274365332e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.3561627471096824e-09,0.0,1.927658011082477e-34,0.0,1.0,558,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3050272072682975,0.4849039749140633,0.03248454496927092,0.32868574233935344,8.695873973865309,0.3637335838792971,-0.31034482758620685,0.018062900791912716,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.295371688844987,0.4728719138176587,0.03169250099185042,0.32183935593940316,8.73042977853834,0.361298836217281,-0.3517241379310345,0.005952597596458611,30,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.328046368190041,0.47805331439392224,0.47997337640879245,0.314181811869411,50.59795190516767,0.4220801855451738,-0.04966482722862117,0.13647327518812935,403,0.9975186104218362,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.7848457139716434,1.4848475662007146,0.14693074912639478,1.011236623933736,7.2816707377972865,3.4629891740059575,-0.047808850316082716,0.21227521633912982,306,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.770662920708487,0.9383375365561323,0.04147426688621382,0.6664343471483456,32.51750738043405,9.969986449028195,0.026208503203261502,0.6962897689185866,102,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -29,7 +29,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3590568061890482,
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.006505490692993,0.4570523112947153,,0.18355558698703064,-24.01314633696131,85.69469160877574,0.04914477335435747,0.3429764073163418,196,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.0941039077622845e-12,1.045994219755676e-06,,3.214861849916891e-06,-100.0,2.0219155665517135e-28,0.0,1.0,416,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.34961672975930663,0.4845803469664631,0.032520078799656196,0.33712340507115973,9.025963259699289,0.562485284793877,-0.19999999999999996,0.16991295403230983,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.33646790118188474,0.46932795303124963,0.03148247055252711,0.3285493541758667,10.269454068402935,0.5551840161623731,-0.2553846153846154,0.07039249318951525,26,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3223875437674981,1.0437161476573937,1.1267294968093524,0.7009073847999235,7.54541950165322,1.0694813005549948,-0.005829179690800034,0.887124567856942,267,0.9962546816479401,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.033632408964443,1.5699591385220844,0.14158472411479958,1.0760730302938917,-1.461852082141302,3.7510905371723355,-0.06073823929459219,0.1936657353807152,207,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.768843963278756,0.8902673165851895,0.03498639781627768,0.6413761405723531,39.70093271789535,11.382484507106362,0.07441016333938293,0.40932488546762036,58,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -42,7 +42,7 @@ ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9749087632969757,1.1589421
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.544121842471378,0.3705648922463694,,0.14936560264323048,-31.493732619354073,73.04857664804652,0.09325250494549293,0.034953061668902434,270,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526525e-15,9.786828912128039e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,1.5791901419002968e-30,0.0,1.0,538,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-ETS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,5.660516480548183,2.225192339732908,0.15960783427971914,1.7959679609048849,-79.30302139698192,3.8990647260009315,0.04926108374384236,0.7239201974279224,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+ETS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,5.632064283514427,2.2241017917224624,0.15885787001642346,1.7941800506233858,-79.9671220048645,3.8344178607315382,0.043678160919540236,0.7502215453736768,30,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 ETS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.9027726887310743,1.2250895680914204,1.474857320621565,0.9312490554118918,-11.427496230284715,1.708639540459894,0.08341492602262837,0.014656345661553837,384,0.9973958333333334,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 ETS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,5.86698631988748,1.9087083475755442,0.18488940777214716,1.5250234839294265,-5.189072097723662,12.018560086343216,-0.17791207489038985,6.033738897459972e-06,291,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.972878454121812,0.853143992192325,0.04758814209444523,0.6729960300640387,6.483095468375056,9.382395081066424,0.14811275680840896,0.03651580906292498,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -55,7 +55,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3255523211137077,0.
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,8.96153090612994,0.4547472276097385,,0.18092940627395201,-24.0058217840915,85.48437053436956,0.03220639384708213,0.5334873994054378,197,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.4882488390014493e-07,,4.1005151803435385e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,417,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.34076853139363533,0.5028654711604497,0.033287769041700964,0.34285408620963204,0.43057480191444525,0.537567756002475,-0.22666666666666663,0.11834341824544657,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.32783875148011027,0.4861314501111893,0.032171503433641925,0.3331142593364293,2.7413565787529137,0.5308169063111237,-0.28615384615384615,0.04171775347628058,26,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.7094792113203483,0.709113225874493,0.8668452603318958,0.46975219914179256,38.56225527014879,0.8597414039332593,0.048074235563754265,0.24085534909002693,268,0.996268656716418,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8638291699977474,1.5103868711906467,0.13633443584585742,1.0170451619303642,3.335990174991888,3.674370048527256,-0.02898417372101583,0.5330829839255911,209,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.670225338703816,0.8791254469903079,0.03496247950075732,0.6108317841224591,37.06055843587799,11.37096795671203,0.09175920514319111,0.30456198913461274,59,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -68,7 +68,7 @@ Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.595777764036453
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.582948492117426,0.3948011658579765,,0.17256378986856932,-32.317923380505434,73.05695508628355,0.08712290324899206,0.04881033086811387,270,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526525e-15,9.786828912128039e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,1.5791901419002968e-30,0.0,1.0,538,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.9273834742740605,0.9016982078707616,0.0646813713439241,0.6859666764987647,-41.28342324098874,0.6697749727682409,-0.05911330049261083,0.668894784416208,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.9224463856199253,0.9010670399481847,0.0645836248358115,0.6869453492193306,-43.08462326691053,0.6586811407632233,-0.04827586206896552,0.7235302654564064,30,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.425296178232171,1.0367501264791648,2.115173956698292,0.9071948453935956,5.434361130812462,1.5896880722272295,0.16413729329852045,1.565116470622534e-06,384,0.9973958333333334,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.627146754646669,1.432445352814104,0.14149572803967314,1.1351683177750536,11.470856549426896,3.494672802345513,-0.09387368171584311,0.016954988771933525,291,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.8914444303842557,1.068962110527693,0.06617696620566264,0.8956165091670224,16.219078657811732,9.585776068034434,0.03774486383182035,0.5941010151538975,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.108011234510908
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.911871392732312,0.4449681429872579,,0.17380057771511165,0.0,72.95897561771629,0.15565800990924059,0.0012756889995869465,271,0.0,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,539,0.0,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39647700304925787,0.54863940015927,0.03875276121808834,0.39106434616248387,0.0,0.46887968125286356,-0.33004926108374383,0.011674730549296571,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3838835766683514,0.5349065407917174,0.037747810105515,0.3810075120009519,0.0,0.46585943829990095,-0.3701149425287356,0.00369749418816167,30,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.496290051809361,1.0742485483614763,2.1454190019483903,0.9449713938011912,0.0,1.6139903260126083,0.18246753246753242,8.987015846222526e-08,385,0.9974025974025974,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.0679597303757355,1.5791794115126205,0.14946815975025615,1.2803452594861757,0.0,3.586989523174458,-0.09024149131478604,0.021488764817594316,292,1.0,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.907553326809399,1.1113168709918815,0.06395200154691993,0.8936284979553439,0.0,9.58160211148785,0.053763440860215055,0.4452669441695035,93,1.0,2026-07-03T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -94,7 +94,7 @@ Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.323207062028143,1.3654
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.573438732040973,0.40885439301261595,,0.15866925271466864,-30.682895918864837,78.60059220901816,0.04143850821370432,0.34633592968762417,233,0.0,2026-07-01T00:15:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,6.61939495520477e-16,2.3240466527218103e-08,,2.02310343836723e-08,0.0,1.4014361341557205e-15,0.0,1.0,469,0.0,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-Sundial,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.30978891113489,0.4956772566894806,0.032907023608860275,0.3317689795201935,4.092702437208488,0.35559679062311217,-0.37321937321937326,0.005900024667731748,27,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+Sundial,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.2989915504083323,0.4810597675775045,0.031935842024323965,0.32229608362516915,5.478488539646862,0.35359595910756725,-0.41798941798941797,0.001494389653163529,28,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3902821425195704,0.5408970210563389,0.8167468889931397,0.3572673270970914,53.39153961360213,0.38861627970549556,0.03926332288401254,0.294724772486214,320,0.996875,2026-07-01T07:24:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 Sundial,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.20139712414444,1.652155521887421,0.16529482288710393,1.227980659624075,-4.909278036449144,3.5372045212964016,-0.10078529542882617,0.01954951073186453,242,1.0,2026-06-30T09:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 Sundial,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.881456278598701,1.0224167870279186,0.04675885085597254,0.7204555593446484,14.578590822390296,10.258215961261458,0.11796042617960426,0.13985682980676,73,1.0,2026-07-05T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -107,7 +107,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2924652831141397,0.9
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.244578981787992,0.4709650384252533,,0.18665645315956708,-24.30554527677064,86.8161206650954,0.047085892240013416,0.37211121095850086,191,0.0,2026-07-01T12:55:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,402,0.0,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3627555185114735,0.5107314929902669,0.03355682757102783,0.40559998873585773,3.718126622914688,0.4992065903079575,-0.23692307692307696,0.09409290644202206,26,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3499836747388939,0.4967729072984653,0.03265549655192607,0.39498106583018344,3.657192499155621,0.493990451889389,-0.2934472934472935,0.032513093519389046,27,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.971618132434465,0.8720657660303621,0.9508031664974258,0.7106311957317819,22.939166494778842,0.8953739584408029,-0.011011789091851276,0.7957705250867417,249,0.9959839357429718,2026-07-01T12:54:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8965241701381843,1.5115122484193086,0.13545207495015701,1.2775550950464394,3.1517594791754173,3.769465510745802,-0.03422291993720566,0.4762684009050038,196,1.0,2026-06-30T13:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,3.0669307026933486,0.9634836711907595,0.03523961683690969,0.736313878115392,32.539994057587926,11.885777737268304,0.1264849755415793,0.1769092815963943,54,1.0,2026-07-06T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -120,7 +120,7 @@ TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5994120921013129,1.07146
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.3054584576963695,0.31989066026428237,,0.1421453753854025,-30.78561060362511,71.77235518423728,0.005301238010303918,0.9025525012022702,280,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955703e-09,,1.3977486927145102e-09,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,557,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-TiRex,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.30586831742315235,0.47141716039930026,0.031164447064971287,0.32074666933005247,14.706159785040878,0.396419029203761,-0.2807881773399014,0.03315447182691332,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+TiRex,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.29587531469370065,0.45830202303845324,0.030294215858784057,0.314433562506276,15.912214496004603,0.39335092685640916,-0.3241379310344828,0.011605514320066219,30,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.38871775448835977,0.5198089195287878,0.615848027381561,0.34745952876247854,46.05762192093278,0.5001586219123281,-0.0397639593595299,0.23318080691765597,403,0.9975186104218362,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 TiRex,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.8917975765518036,1.5078824753640498,0.15020125690488692,1.0293235426522636,5.885239115240805,3.5915105256167124,-0.14171699741156168,0.00022312563497619732,305,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.468994721394927,0.8596170375096616,0.037194240537534014,0.6036450284928152,41.50715153356337,9.60643761665164,0.0716831683168317,0.28815304090301486,101,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -133,7 +133,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.638967969038197,1.
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.305398844763249,0.3207381464756472,,0.13155890322939762,-28.530325819204954,71.77117653358577,0.11530533974640567,0.00846090445727199,280,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,557,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3226648021472211,0.5095483963504411,0.038763270367779684,0.36433482943848794,2.8079116098780363,0.3359394049576855,-0.3546798029556649,0.006518643400864223,29,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.31259224147394643,0.4973346576596029,0.03799042775808872,0.35734743509649297,2.559933492785978,0.33467509116808847,-0.3977011494252874,0.0017234661675702629,30,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.17405898129029634,0.3559463036277285,0.26394272038074507,0.2743511535277782,62.7886089138778,0.20416507984521107,-0.014563591022443893,0.6631617058407491,401,0.9975062344139651,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.693707921983544,1.4692699579335124,0.1324856504788307,1.230100155381586,7.190343869941421,3.259170685929356,-0.09767040552200172,0.010958870572059113,305,1.0,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.473458750158442,0.883920069404717,0.039945153768864705,0.7179661355505145,37.40913646012532,9.426150906207923,0.060606060606060615,0.3716242470071768,100,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
@@ -146,7 +146,7 @@ Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.277551305421047,1.297
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,11.514070945556266,1.485178568821057,,0.18444015309765927,-87.00217600025016,85.79839052243692,0.007355226354501191,0.8780127356756016,197,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.5268155410716483,0.3076874795763614,,0.00027573709652233127,-100.0,3.446865129167965,-0.013303490881684574,0.6841739485653404,419,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T19:50:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.6842781864590141,0.6536203898554627,0.031095016624194248,0.31729018203317877,-12.202435017151721,1.3289735382530592,-0.20666666666666664,0.1556965251316672,25,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T23:00:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.6586340425895975,0.6335735514017304,0.03023697154965001,0.3095297258176916,-11.611604151595333,1.3086718510560469,-0.2676923076923077,0.057446554888585626,26,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3078289843091553,0.961963879375005,0.7959803792599722,0.3940574025552693,16.918463333506445,2.469650251442599,0.016053972187801184,0.6942152123560038,270,0.9962962962962963,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-28T20:36:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,55.65293329286992,5.102457599852986,0.13006160412664045,1.0249056328688833,-64.96927793034399,180.8784334231431,-0.08724892800722185,0.059375976260592184,211,1.0,2026-07-02T10:10:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:20:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.45680483631431,1.7566451020306872,0.03543346962187676,0.6053896244254073,-21.810618327960736,31.64405952117616,0.15141242937853108,0.0873982232047124,60,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:14.986486+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:12.898983+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 domain,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Climate,Chronos-2,7.343540308237445,52.18509910367165,1,5,5,1.0
-Climate,TiRex,3.9120616233581957,41.97865273634001,2,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Toto-1.0,457.12888683085043,51.15871240112208,3,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,4,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Moirai-2.0,9.304955170937616,57.119716821779726,5,5,5,1.0
-Climate,TabPFN-TS,9.888888264364688,51.25832812761255,6,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Chronos-Bolt,16.08992499423462,69.51195806320727,7,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Sundial,52.48727421533778,75.12767799700198,8,5,5,1.0
-Climate,TimesFM-2.5,5.306749862111275,61.26541148585923,9,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Moving-Average,187.96548328583071,1.6290370075627212,10,5,5,1.0
-Climate,ARIMA,251.25804147610518,211.79237567862842,11,5,5,1.0
-Climate,ETS,630.5453578307583,38.7720487303701,12,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Toto-1.0,435.5901985713874,53.29156478660997,1,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,2,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Moirai-2.0,7.378507435351014,57.141717297913075,3,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Chronos-2,8.207612976283679,58.356072575766355,4,5,5,1.0
+Climate,TiRex,3.6039513362371127,47.1885455613262,5,5,5,1.0
+Climate,TabPFN-TS,10.21051994514313,53.753593411883465,6,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Chronos-Bolt,15.545386249279808,77.74915686334033,7,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Sundial,56.13631154452401,80.26168134874668,8,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Moving-Average,263.19708208074803,1.9356657685209764,9,5,5,1.0
+Climate,TimesFM-2.5,6.024327851477196,70.69945011330122,10,5,5,1.0
+Climate,ARIMA,342.47676221363855,246.06359529884122,11,5,5,1.0
+Climate,ETS,852.1492904678585,44.71268860829721,12,5,5,1.0
 Finance,Moirai-2.0,0.22409481207132434,0.487951964417501,1,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Chronos-Bolt,0.2736790800966687,0.5057014143672646,2,2,2,1.0
 Finance,TiRex,0.20014521509059205,0.4804972472127513,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 1D,Toto-1.0,1.1828445386062165,0.7008146109363338,10,1,1,1.0
 1D,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 1D,TabPFN-TS,0.8629829581417852,1.004036040514957,12,1,1,1.0
-1h,Chronos-2,0.2672545039570467,0.639576706431142,1,6,6,1.0
-1h,Sundial,0.45417504032775424,0.5797434569208265,2,6,6,1.0
-1h,Chronos-Bolt,0.3755337803838459,0.6536941850052578,3,6,6,1.0
-1h,TiRex,0.24373417925325028,0.6591791487420849,4,6,6,1.0
-1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.24595361783286118,0.6117953527433327,5,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moirai-2.0,0.2997232596127522,0.6953720114420913,6,6,6,1.0
-1h,Toto-1.0,1.6949855448848605,0.7050925029531214,7,6,6,1.0
-1h,TabPFN-TS,0.464767358988598,0.7378840906483591,8,6,6,1.0
+1h,Sundial,0.48033932343920593,0.6125752252854054,1,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-2,0.293213877828468,0.7020083171680433,2,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moirai-2.0,0.24703906912098006,0.6955951980115956,3,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-Bolt,0.3649123742023054,0.7176368974020708,4,6,6,1.0
+1h,Toto-1.0,1.62816666792551,0.7295053584977232,5,6,6,1.0
+1h,TiRex,0.22762893214593005,0.7266805577926398,6,6,6,1.0
+1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.27337147726466393,0.6893504678922017,7,6,6,1.0
+1h,TabPFN-TS,0.47733060008075745,0.7676985158501238,8,6,6,1.0
 1h,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,6,6,1.0
-1h,ARIMA,1.4805975835340284,1.3856350304777278,10,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moving-Average,1.5388717478866625,1.3605157006104653,11,6,6,1.0
-1h,ETS,5.85178862211017,2.660575078526543,12,6,6,1.0
+1h,ARIMA,1.9165919156829607,1.5701087136609413,10,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moving-Average,2.037221403308408,1.5707958338905472,11,6,6,1.0
+1h,ETS,7.5212165301933265,2.9961867659643464,12,6,6,1.0
 1mo,Moirai-2.0,0.5701893078499076,0.5711658118752873,1,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Chronos-Bolt,0.6722527938921684,0.6335328970612374,2,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Toto-1.0,0.6317640740160342,0.6385745807295035,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,45427.78050575926,13343.616139573438,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,0.3227524717807059,0.6395363163221763,1,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.5169973725923475,0.5936559433858414,2,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.431839558999335,0.6516140882320992,3,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.30048609695042816,0.616149828563378,4,7,7,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.2982253174011723,0.6762930428051747,5,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,0.3590913541083441,0.7012111502433099,6,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.5185091508890699,0.7225803618760425,7,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,1.5792864617931184,0.7195598313008851,8,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,1.451355390462857,1.2207484100172628,9,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.5424231693491125,0.6223586634656351,1,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,0.34944409826939127,0.6926858456732861,2,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,0.42134909445705554,0.7058795235853124,3,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,0.3042591777976744,0.7014040549920403,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,1.5257700258156286,0.740862359998745,5,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.3289782806366003,0.6825200123517653,6,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.5304998606499011,0.747534430933959,7,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.2812527757171801,0.7352354124680577,8,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,1.845884228762413,1.380784020888204,9,7,7,1.0
 24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,1.6255665546718008,1.559909150882639,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,4.4554326841483585,2.2837699956131567,12,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,2.0280756005522766,1.7363039984998985,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,5.524818260678021,2.5285715380243023,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,Moving-Average,4197928397.0869946,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,ETS,4197931034.7064004,323190.1295744973,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,Chronos-2,0.9875733408231765,5.4783986023388795,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TiRex,0.6866123361647838,5.001658446623503,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,2.249771197951725,7.03464526921776,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.7849597019399541,3.08894913521829,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.2982704861881424,8.859218876542968,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.8115417766233586,11.8283136473472,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,6.141734080867964,2.7003127160846345,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,51.44045918656041,15.548434530193708,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,5.516192365530741,17.750595765207354,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,1.9220157838967742,4.034450844989052,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,1.0307436317082814,5.719034058835196,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,2.308687861801399,7.215789432729919,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.6652869406699716,5.2318538848461325,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.1874540493365402,8.860531126768967,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.8241987847649759,3.2638793446684615,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,50.49438419307649,15.794624683539832,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.7877113254122,12.348922062913827,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,6.9907362677479385,2.8855030024261636,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,6.214045891721381,18.804666815728652,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,1.945822643701636,4.108885781189038,10,13,13,1.0
 Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,7.845184970206799,8.264357290586918,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,8.808675906739495,8.730143972124893,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,ARIMA,0.459657391080611,1.41868195752305
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ARIMA,27197.688534080287,28885.073828115153,130.26006235500384,1.3733941545973163,0.6111556523811462,1.024494621436719,15.484310582150973,164.91721721542686,1.0152918018145418,0.8019294507021014,0.723321704945088,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ARIMA,0.008870345887065726,0.002850883380785429,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.09418251370114161,nan,nan,0.03925411785968172,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,ARIMA,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,nan,nan,2.502171382189061e-07,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ARIMA,2.8566544089870263,2.89473193101524,nan,nan,0.09884040348193625,nan,nan,1.6901640183683435,nan,nan,1.3222000525599702,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ARIMA,2.056925758158167,2.1513339170576207,nan,nan,0.08313762419760717,nan,nan,1.4341986466867715,nan,nan,1.1091462251330082,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,ARIMA,0.2754288479681342,0.2779258099402789,nan,nan,0.2469307827424079,nan,nan,0.5248131552925615,nan,nan,0.4540848563056298,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,ARIMA,1.4357467593036326,1.4073476052861997,nan,nan,0.09319675379733881,nan,nan,1.198226505842544,nan,nan,0.8393637818111649,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.33228586127163234,0.22104454915678584,0.36362891565490346,0.26312846157942765,0.022250183536134175,0.02191393413024315,2.960766211760618,0.5764424180016876,0.03447450399419848,0.021747057665548703,0.019463503681897795,Weather,1,24

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.490917+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.096815+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.727301+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.267601+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.46766119047554405,0.46766119
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-2,25067.461899718543,25067.461899718543,121.96686029434204,1.2859549577545721,0.6608019070822674,0.9393767274480805,18.969076544647905,158.32707254199624,0.9747204171363386,0.7508734105557137,0.605299940786381,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-2,2.4509541494589707e-06,2.4509541494589707e-06,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0015655523464448485,nan,nan,0.0013553598855146197,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Chronos-2,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.7296862743653321e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.3151753777977035e-09,nan,nan,2.356162747109682e-09,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.05755404396488803,0.05755404396488803,nan,nan,0.013492256137008982,nan,nan,0.23990423915572653,nan,nan,0.1779255586270698,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.015361654568983274,0.015361654568983274,nan,nan,0.008723225646655898,nan,nan,0.123942142021926,nan,nan,0.12329415034084243,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Chronos-2,0.010406821607460197,0.010406821607460197,nan,nan,0.057696898975205545,nan,nan,0.10201383047146204,nan,nan,0.14627181184963278,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-2,1.856995284312634,1.856995284312634,nan,nan,0.10774128894804758,nan,nan,1.3627161422367586,nan,nan,0.9471748005907611,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763978935275495,0.4551292260487874,0.3293397414624391,0.02734639793034648,0.02740698654518156,1.2449814398684094,0.4771161172636646,0.02853423165374086,0.027219291695583462,0.02293888289302154,Weather,1,24

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.314783+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.953624+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.734454+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.276631+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.18688054976150958,0.18688
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-Bolt,24494.29886562596,24494.29886562596,120.14190149307251,1.2667135440416435,0.6356253615465683,0.9144911966348365,18.167880022797153,156.5065457596773,0.9635125763281969,0.7396382845884965,0.5956771935646294,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.8035366954488628e-05,1.8035366954488628e-05,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.00424680667731516,nan,nan,0.0048265730368095665,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0941039077622847e-12,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.0459942197556757e-06,nan,nan,3.2148618499168906e-06,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.060131400306474146,0.060131400306474146,nan,nan,0.015226941585482342,nan,nan,0.24521704734066543,nan,nan,0.1646158168530065,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.007747186746338719,0.007747186746338719,nan,nan,0.005542264374300185,nan,nan,0.08801810465091099,nan,nan,0.11419808179354105,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.5339679339475478,0.5339679339475478,nan,nan,0.35371192401287294,nan,nan,0.7307310955115759,nan,nan,0.5088065834065414,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.8183820341810941,1.8183820341810941,nan,nan,0.1052065398639262,nan,nan,1.3484739649622806,nan,nan,0.9887360000732605,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.3455539255669464,0.3455539255669464,0.35915493965148926,0.2598910116071078,0.022263105377559073,0.021625170449781378,1.7395006304410234,0.5878383498606963,0.035156044918533885,0.021479488696328264,0.02138024583258913,Weather,1,24

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.391333+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.027949+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.742387+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.282433+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,ETS,0.6408955093300958,0.631367567340700
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ETS,27619.336324418462,28734.51642651467,129.964918000045,1.370282306464171,0.618770085277974,1.0227875260688906,19.0701060641571,166.19066256687967,1.0231316056095572,0.8001124321457544,0.7242860136139402,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ETS,0.0041979310347064315,1.3738713092824673e-13,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.06479144260399232,nan,nan,3.2319012957449715e-07,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,ETS,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,nan,nan,2.502171382189061e-07,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ETS,6.967350636262137,7.118593467839205,nan,nan,0.1694092319683307,nan,nan,2.6395739497619948,nan,nan,2.155579193216335,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ETS,4.8069505695355,4.947085739068471,nan,nan,0.13710890638084808,nan,nan,2.1924758994195352,nan,nan,1.7423306524599145,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,ETS,0.036222856607319116,0.03473289526702414,nan,nan,0.09796604056929731,nan,nan,0.19032303225652727,nan,nan,0.1484799965626013,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,ETS,1.573931313535394,1.5606780578805923,nan,nan,0.09911925490484888,nan,nan,1.254564192672258,nan,nan,0.9177692646679216,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,7.485363061070757,7.069546909402846,2.3835086205114373,1.7247499565509898,0.14388404150048517,0.1583681265446001,69.43260805973387,2.7359391552208825,0.1636245744397495,0.1425472430409996,0.1432604803385527,Weather,1,24

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.460067+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.090787+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.750837+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.293949+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.21278374675130304,0.2127837
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Moirai-2.0,20775.499102946527,20775.499102946527,107.845894018809,1.137070854757381,0.5779948164087865,0.7687864471222213,13.629300063640835,144.13708441253598,0.8873615660779484,0.6639394837327767,0.5370367497191665,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moirai-2.0,4.684138793773598e-06,4.684138793773598e-06,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.002164287132931672,nan,nan,0.0014966970660161224,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Moirai-2.0,1.2167879962794955e-13,1.2167879962794955e-13,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,3.488248839001449e-07,nan,nan,4.100515180343539e-07,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.09574995506572065,0.09574995506572065,nan,nan,0.017967983965798535,nan,nan,0.30943489632832405,nan,nan,0.22571242347560772,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.0045942536419829915,0.0045942536419829915,nan,nan,0.00426486323216604,nan,nan,0.06778092387968013,nan,nan,0.08961858750636059,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Moirai-2.0,0.12320466677523444,0.12320466677523444,nan,nan,0.16149538120314608,nan,nan,0.35100522328768047,nan,nan,0.2499908402682053,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Moirai-2.0,1.8128381614270934,1.8128381614270934,nan,nan,0.11011954508888912,nan,nan,1.3464167859274088,nan,nan,0.9895198704790081,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.14372890600255536,0.14372890600255536,0.31227461496988934,0.22596756058122644,0.019022853516839414,0.018851775659897613,1.4879776077653897,0.3791159532419539,0.02267326975973139,0.018675781179300244,0.020424282056145146,Weather,1,24

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.370748+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.996595+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.757824+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.299330+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.044791038156368396,0.04
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Moving-Average,33703.3339872141,34919.977384896825,150.98728679575507,1.5919311979035975,0.862092038435816,1.5500551973378933,23.0273565699048,183.58467797508075,1.130215641726378,0.9295339628591026,0.8356046823445622,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moving-Average,0.004197928397087028,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.06479142224929954,nan,nan,0.0,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Moving-Average,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,nan,nan,2.502171382189061e-07,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.9459504101209099,0.9616574584193138,nan,nan,0.06473533206551767,nan,nan,0.9725998201320571,nan,nan,0.7620807943572839,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.779270814650002,0.781195833839493,nan,nan,0.06174897610054578,nan,nan,0.8827631701934568,nan,nan,0.7153268581157453,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Moving-Average,3.392975543569993,3.3714588906301417,nan,nan,1.0214556596954574,nan,nan,1.8420031334311007,nan,nan,1.6795962107905007,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Moving-Average,1.42536209758668,1.4121837830367694,nan,nan,0.09444778722827778,nan,nan,1.1938852949872027,nan,nan,0.8769223535518942,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.493630847038398,1.7000589878686503,1.2217104150537874,0.8840517576268612,0.07388203163275463,0.07085183080330068,7.145487999616988,1.2221419095335853,0.07309097114634891,0.07306516534562585,0.06611845332434199,Weather,1,24

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.429185+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.080930+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.767771+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.316205+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,17 +1,23 @@
 {
-    "status": "ok",
+    "status": "partial",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.236196+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:17.081219+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.033658+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:15.145424+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 2,
-    "issued_tasks": 0,
-    "issued_forecasts": 0,
-    "resolved_forecasts": 0,
+    "task_count": 4,
+    "issued_tasks": 1,
+    "issued_forecasts": 12,
+    "resolved_forecasts": 12,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
-    "failed_forecasts": [],
+    "failed_forecasts": [
+        {
+            "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
+            "dataset": "nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short",
+            "error": "Mean forecast length 10 < 24"
+        }
+    ],
     "models": {
         "Chronos-2": {
             "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -19,8 +25,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774719+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.953624+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.276631+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TiRex": {
             "model": "TiRex",
@@ -28,8 +44,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774725+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.967497+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.365702+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TimesFM-2.5": {
             "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
@@ -37,8 +63,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774727+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.969540+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.344722+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Toto-1.0": {
             "model": "Toto-1.0",
@@ -46,8 +82,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774728+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.975004+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.373229+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Moirai-2.0": {
             "model": "Moirai-2.0",
@@ -55,8 +101,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774728+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.996595+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.299330+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Chronos-Bolt": {
             "model": "Chronos-Bolt",
@@ -64,8 +120,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774729+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.027949+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.282433+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "TabPFN-TS": {
             "model": "TabPFN-TS",
@@ -73,8 +139,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774731+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.045174+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
+                    "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.337604+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Sundial": {
             "model": "Sundial",
@@ -82,8 +158,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774731+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.075017+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
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+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.330474+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Moving-Average": {
             "model": "Moving-Average",
@@ -91,8 +177,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774732+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.080930+00:00",
+            "resolved_tasks": [
+                {
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+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.316205+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "ETS": {
             "model": "ETS",
@@ -100,8 +196,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774733+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.090787+00:00",
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+                {
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+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.293949+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "ARIMA": {
             "model": "ARIMA",
@@ -109,8 +215,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774734+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.096815+00:00",
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+                {
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+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.267601+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         },
         "Seasonal-Naive": {
             "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
@@ -118,8 +234,18 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:39:12.774735+00:00",
-            "resolved_tasks": []
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.101820+00:00",
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+                {
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+                    "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
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+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.323332+00:00",
+                    "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+                    "prediction_length": 24,
+                    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+                }
+            ]
         }
     },
     "skipped_models": [],
@@ -142,7 +268,5 @@
         "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
         "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
     },
-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-29T05:41:36.609618+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

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+  "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-29T05:54:30.266634Z",
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+}

results/prequential/tasks/future-d6081e135cb01178d783.json

@@ -685,7 +685,23 @@
   "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:17.374040Z",
   "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
   "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
-  "status": "open",
-  "scored_models": [],
-  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+  "status": "resolved",
+  "scored_models": [
+    "ARIMA",
+    "Chronos-2",
+    "Chronos-Bolt",
+    "ETS",
+    "Moirai-2.0",
+    "Moving-Average",
+    "Seasonal-Naive",
+    "Sundial",
+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
+    "TimesFM-2.5",
+    "Toto-1.0"
+  ],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+  "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.379839+00:00",
+  "target_start": "2026-07-26T00:00:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00"
 }

results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.423041225920173,0.42304
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Seasonal-Naive,36436.1429036395,36436.1429036395,152.79166432221731,1.6109556133900285,0.8264244641534466,1.5187046461435552,64.32233589831223,190.88253692687422,1.1751439790441005,0.9406423828344558,0.9402466648974208,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.1220216960389396,0.1220216960389396,nan,nan,0.021531299784153208,nan,nan,0.3493160403401762,nan,nan,0.2254931967218306,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.0186742116220626,0.0186742116220626,nan,nan,0.00860422784088782,nan,nan,0.1366536191326911,nan,nan,0.08935932131652284,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Seasonal-Naive,3.447238808523221,3.447238808523221,nan,nan,1.0572035924594645,nan,nan,1.8566741255597927,nan,nan,1.7164181828157214,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.8254023482924664,1.8254023482924664,nan,nan,0.10300596135678308,nan,nan,1.3510745161879363,nan,nan,1.0409236236762192,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4220830567678604,1.4220830567678604,1.1374998887379963,0.8231154973782487,0.06849731872919221,0.06598468274623316,18.192842105640498,1.1925112396819832,0.07131889016436462,0.06802890147057772,0.06090870857230404,Weather,1,24

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.493888+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.101820+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.774200+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.323332+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Sundial,0.020980244564637807,0.044790870
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Sundial,27047.212071285932,27202.68214463723,143.1162110964457,1.5089426812363538,2.4254864254221506,0.8536544624552972,36.2452386153836,164.4603662627745,1.0124792572257424,0.881076689786568,0.7401326095810744,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Sundial,0.0009375686681934455,5.276863565657715e-05,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.03061974311116025,nan,nan,0.00650940531410231,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Sundial,4.023358660208636e-16,5.027980722516016e-16,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,2.0058311644324993e-08,nan,nan,1.9666989774493304e-08,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Sundial,0.03484559946889979,0.03321369616330838,nan,nan,0.011084302742851744,nan,nan,0.18666976045653402,nan,nan,0.12063016584599584,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Sundial,0.007462810791272632,0.007313073714600876,nan,nan,0.005713939241843377,nan,nan,0.08638756155415334,nan,nan,0.06652789445951113,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Sundial,0.060175783950176094,0.05609237919407214,nan,nan,0.07412757609967024,nan,nan,0.24530752933853475,nan,nan,0.13671526637880943,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Sundial,1.8951818473141462,1.9163619084017445,nan,nan,0.10927980596876953,nan,nan,1.376656038127951,nan,nan,0.9759154406329663,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Sundial,0.8427959919452709,0.728805377540842,0.6027306715647379,0.43614681761468477,0.037071160344855525,0.03572165078421854,7.949536290001031,0.9180392104617705,0.05490391657437408,0.03604668965257109,0.027748537362407476,Weather,1,24

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.419300+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.075017+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.780571+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.330474+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -81,7 +81,7 @@ m_dense/D/short,TabPFN-TS,7652.655555555555,7652.655555555555,42.433567708333335
 m_dense/H/long,TabPFN-TS,75694.39604938272,75694.39604938272,120.74972222222222,1.02275823938943,0.32039782336527445,0.2554198615933642,8.829765092160066,275.1261457029897,0.4762840292517426,0.20903561922142588,0.16524406701635594,Transport,1
 m_dense/H/medium,TabPFN-TS,71212.77555555555,71212.77555555555,116.21049045138888,0.993734534883084,0.3077546622676556,0.24954473707411023,8.673153554524918,266.85721941809174,0.4642978479599947,0.20219157174991295,0.160040826351846,Transport,1
 m_dense/H/short,TabPFN-TS,68285.90555555555,68285.90555555555,106.8298410373264,0.906291178560046,0.30428158067341887,0.23916954464382595,10.038621879613546,261.3157200697186,0.46350902522521975,0.18948953959205128,0.15486162614965193,Transport,1
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.09975335471419111,0.09975335471419111,nan,nan,0.017856817712759297,nan,nan,0.3158375448140881,nan,nan,0.23654849373180264,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.0179157366518244,0.0179157366518244,nan,nan,0.009220890055280472,nan,nan,0.1338496793116233,nan,nan,0.11888907028265007,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TabPFN-TS,1.8988556082417043,1.8988556082417043,nan,nan,0.6136240228259947,nan,nan,1.3779896981624007,nan,nan,1.1796597417576704,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TabPFN-TS,2.0016078438111062,2.0016078438111062,nan,nan,0.11464716915832285,nan,nan,1.4147819068008702,nan,nan,1.217972136045571,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.3804797499912335,0.3804797499912335,0.41256459554036456,0.2985392048131281,0.02545106702891627,0.02473706497544044,11.941568192525125,0.6168304061824721,0.03688993321379491,0.02467368700264445,0.024673687002644454,Weather,1,24

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.411083+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:11.045174+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.787326+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.337604+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.16431138716961843,0.284045
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TimesFM-2.5,28434.715767887308,30940.314541637516,136.81071631113687,1.4424608331286375,0.6894371389934627,1.1431172573156296,43.032391046456816,168.6259640977252,1.0381242287022936,0.8422577158188848,0.7508176845882389,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.44920232639685e-07,3.5841123443997174e-08,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0003806839012089755,nan,nan,0.002087606835736884,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.07100583795216671,0.11015231373309131,nan,nan,0.017946478614699196,nan,nan,0.2664692063863416,nan,nan,0.19077303156426317,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.020487981948980976,0.06239748119636928,nan,nan,0.01557799207705079,nan,nan,0.1431362356252985,nan,nan,0.15471299917863682,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.02359433145679282,0.012315545569750067,nan,nan,0.06254322407963417,nan,nan,0.1536044643127042,nan,nan,0.12223740016022647,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.4141845873381427,1.6324485311846777,nan,nan,0.1057700757246169,nan,nan,1.1891949324388087,nan,nan,0.9654826752100926,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.1617179170793861,0.26413559913635254,0.1911332978675114,0.01630353750267156,0.01601217538840988,10.994616695384883,0.4650043583043965,0.027809880236186378,0.015796796840529412,0.021259949519123158,Weather,1,24

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.356744+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.969540+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.794583+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.344722+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TiRex,0.3044911716818759,0.3044911716818
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TiRex,26189.183511279563,26189.183511279563,125.3613642056783,1.321744836442649,0.6820653407770266,0.984424218821475,18.101060665387852,161.83072486792972,0.9962902055610486,0.7717712406949717,0.6145704862690891,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TiRex,1.4054914427398836e-07,1.4054914427398836e-07,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0003748988453889774,nan,nan,0.0003993634555769383,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TiRex,2.0440368407041843e-18,2.0440368407041843e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.4296981641955705e-09,nan,nan,1.39774869271451e-09,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TiRex,0.05985578794791759,0.05985578794791759,nan,nan,0.0143261346056855,nan,nan,0.24465442556372774,nan,nan,0.1846692716488146,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TiRex,0.0060782355395996865,0.0060782355395996865,nan,nan,0.005057510879354289,nan,nan,0.07796303957388838,nan,nan,0.13135346461675806,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TiRex,0.002822231935207679,0.002822231935207679,nan,nan,0.03226110467096989,nan,nan,0.053124682918655415,nan,nan,0.1650886778127356,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TiRex,1.7236237732645157,1.7236237732645157,nan,nan,0.10546890159008093,nan,nan,1.3128685285528463,nan,nan,0.944637275183918,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.1330410943866506,0.1330410943866506,0.2665089766184489,0.19285071674902834,0.016340940517305648,0.0161404612437938,1.417522257895925,0.3647479875018512,0.021813984466305555,0.01593873818441926,0.018680112149927236,Weather,1,24

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.337495+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.967497+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.807930+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.365702+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Toto-1.0,1.2672091214948127,0.0136427403
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Toto-1.0,23019.0460822337,26241.382774419122,124.61535914738973,1.313879348219856,0.6257435399486769,0.9697879270582787,13.780075922721792,151.7202889604212,0.9340465971435247,0.767178555755332,0.6004176198191844,Finance,1,12
 data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Toto-1.0,0.7943348078310142,1.1733243406725785e-07,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.891254625699645,nan,nan,0.0013990643402188511,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Toto-1.0,0.003266540986670743,5.370465547842736e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.05715366118343376,nan,nan,0.00027882740255167677,Transportation,1,12
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.14581109734968253,0.10758165581966579,nan,nan,0.019716449559055497,nan,nan,0.3818521930664829,nan,nan,0.23765672698505458,Weather,1,24
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.017530445854179618,0.01764616520390966,nan,nan,0.008785844686044004,nan,nan,0.13240259005842603,nan,nan,0.11551832043051283,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Toto-1.0,0.4565064934950263,0.24164430266344564,nan,nan,0.16545136653121734,nan,nan,0.6756526426315717,nan,nan,0.34148651654054096,Ocean,1,60
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Toto-1.0,5.1232459483513475,1.7839306147426446,nan,nan,0.10778064946894744,nan,nan,2.263458846180188,nan,nan,0.9314055426699801,Ocean,1,72
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.2061994614582545,0.2026127577197864,0.29392051696777344,0.2126862032329617,0.01814908932063847,0.017779550705114375,1.3101507982416967,1.7905863457142341,0.10708715077088915,0.017578102720665366,0.014884503464531462,Weather,1,24

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:24:33.358754+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-29T05:58:10.975004+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-3a64c64a5ae0a03e1c1b",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-29T02:16:53.284443+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:20:34.814769+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-29T05:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "dataset": "nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-d6081e135cb01178d783",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-28T06:04:32.003817+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-29T05:55:04.373229+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-26T23:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]