Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:16.228810+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:06.173113+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,13 +13,13 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 27050,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2676,
+  "num_model_releases": 27062,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2677,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
-      "num_model_releases": 204,
-      "num_unique_releases": 17,
+      "num_model_releases": 192,
+      "num_unique_releases": 16,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 24 hours through reference_time"
     },
@@ -32,14 +32,14 @@
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26669,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2618,
+      "num_model_releases": 26681,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2619,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 4662
+    "prequential-v1": 4674
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,320.0187389282013,4.220029487256322,0.2505140341288265,3.877036236706853,-10.854238010067464,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875,1654.7699367271398,-0.34681337150662706,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,306.02974923309154,4.132701237668065,0.23652030961162643,4.628129007316555,-6.917678190233373,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875,1583.7783336535958,-0.5690355937288493,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,319.4411842758084,4.180925912724215,0.27493316765993786,3.990666924636294,-5.705695189433298,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875,1655.6449902217712,-0.4579244826177382,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,319.8042685188836,4.286203803375854,0.6528468699869372,3.9704216731580257,-18.567722538111017,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125,1655.7595485243626,-0.4579244826177382,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,320.13636638933747,4.264332895628712,0.28076925974704275,4.103001871962371,-4.63341059288494,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125,1655.124046995414,-0.6801467048399603,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,319.30045004016523,4.3029501075332135,0.46805701790778514,3.961237078694754,-20.8482582177254,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125,1656.776392255174,-0.6801467048399603,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,320.02085470688525,4.216714195011277,0.3280439424659715,3.9711556744754706,-10.495765443724974,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125,1654.7829293545594,-0.4444444444444446,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,320.0425676560952,4.272166073155816,0.580862408584382,3.594093829167434,0.0,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875,1655.5049912688048,-0.2222222222222223,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,319.80399439877635,4.2291838053500275,0.6908229317424641,4.047948445035333,-13.227454267426266,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875,1655.5265148140504,-0.4579244826177382,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,564.9166945923138,5.641684005679526,0.30572725327353256,4.412845527323172,-44.78472383402193,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125,2963.238210089312,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,320.8217781685444,4.652304257100946,0.7681570022120808,4.409010278126816,-33.5018227368897,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875,1655.088557592813,-0.5690355937288493,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,321.2455372552207,4.913729176224321,1.1248018799068575,4.630865366703563,-34.179825571676524,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875,1657.0390531632204,-0.34681337150662706,0.0,8,17,0.875,2026-07-27T02:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,9.853600434618041,1.285026643258906,0.2834492045058629,0.8958168006566513,-10.19699994272575,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336,41.364528093623456,-0.12459114928440478,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,9.169295956965762,1.2544765259817883,0.27099216084359673,0.9399219653156793,-5.700818244163491,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336,38.1958469448622,-0.346813371506627,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,9.08481350997186,1.2395705630112588,0.3237689139445562,1.0353042464961542,-5.019544379276276,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336,37.650130644957464,-0.23570226039551592,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,9.509954679558685,1.34469331950734,0.6884111358099776,0.9979648313438331,-17.82464868880649,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332,39.64209134496254,-0.23570226039551592,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,9.957328413131403,1.3253489231215572,0.3056712918188616,1.1543659836126694,-3.5038741285862915,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332,41.47021486411808,-0.45792448261773816,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,8.80306253204734,1.3504930263428134,0.5069336760536387,0.9694187390581389,-19.506761303087274,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332,35.909557924135406,-0.45792448261773816,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,9.836971569092592,1.2624732384172548,0.35813054033835207,1.0027429341613638,-7.651376150374774,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332,41.97511540889277,-0.2222222222222223,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,9.861761932518483,1.355413313560759,0.6271390391134252,1.1466142171468685,0.0,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,40.886980422651405,-1.850371707708594e-17,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,9.547776206807157,1.2773790565567844,0.7279695697568466,1.0918777795696282,-11.221185513181071,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,41.098388888099784,-0.23570226039551592,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,9.201344580926685,1.546288713331926,0.33564656935555603,0.9659472184460599,-34.95938664514379,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332,36.077165450592894,0.11111111111111112,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,10.681520234373743,1.7439134700583188,0.8115387060630129,1.4977676553183688,-32.283981423224404,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,39.319814074053134,-0.45792448261773816,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,10.748669018667496,1.967979174207425,1.1553158574859428,1.6817652435462391,-32.80000374487258,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,35.51938893721731,-0.12459114928440478,0.0,8,16,0.875,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.192729533267073,0.877654214919014,0.1597951221749635,0.6406173302693611,23.244101254947108,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875,136.8921383114082,0.04492277868972261,0.15384615384615385,13,2570,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.364067048141834,0.8819707457522772,0.1957871961797735,0.6745472824547792,24.45574003230734,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875,139.63260762818203,0.0379489073741678,0.23076923076923078,13,2557,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.242329237084697,0.8771668789745182,0.13750811298347854,0.7189095800877578,23.864408062957487,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875,137.15156034570558,0.046961744472300754,0.23076923076923078,13,2551,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.79637531965717,0.9271374675105748,0.24116366898617986,0.6725570096434044,22.05478378597309,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125,156.78530527608729,0.07545751759535285,0.15384615384615385,13,1858,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.513676389518093,0.9748274362254303,0.2002011701861993,0.819957124999972,18.58782590777182,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125,164.2834450027905,0.05135731612650678,0.15384615384615385,13,1750,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.064209842097284,0.9738764058007852,0.2739862962299492,0.7208370950246507,11.400973812190513,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125,157.74779966565953,0.03529017097172391,0.15384615384615385,13,1845,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.43667760589942,1.0147054362936054,0.22226271804422904,0.7671111278595805,15.982443627525466,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125,151.6304288081775,0.011606406151458974,0.3076923076923077,13,2098,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.05298917454688,1.2350836042169686,0.3647416223518714,0.9629745477639694,0.0,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875,142.20287354507664,0.03911828429557119,0.23076923076923078,13,2398,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.794647909702487,1.1410107211774276,0.3400732461236049,0.9171104838269113,3.1967793553846118,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875,142.4503041698424,0.07878854061525714,0.15384615384615385,13,2390,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.737753034471066,1.6640269037891688,0.2815193164585341,0.7025152533982296,-19.131858305612475,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125,214.18583766366072,-0.0017111279641590371,0.15384615384615385,13,1872,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,15.719043436483826,1.1438839555770912,0.34742053558221436,0.9016704943180507,1.9332997595061778,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875,142.45704081328108,0.05765399037621596,0.15384615384615385,13,2390,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.48970566036954,1.4001313162563938,0.3153422906373994,1.1108336503675638,-3.4983697677661523,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875,147.33038373816146,0.07270563440192909,0.15384615384615385,13,2390,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.192617695204133,0.8776105148842722,0.1598713610241152,0.6405970774340616,23.24508804259358,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336,136.8920348883308,0.044431177702540056,0.15384615384615385,13,2571,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.363900716806178,0.8818963943097201,0.19587612761206447,0.6745088312443793,24.460028688823858,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336,139.63253537960912,0.037222322328652475,0.23076923076923078,13,2558,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.242194185237055,0.8771112514750998,0.13763326656048167,0.718837228982042,23.866351366783366,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336,137.15146202171576,0.04638457722794001,0.23076923076923078,13,2552,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.79614649811132,0.9270379442147131,0.24129983674159278,0.6725021002017003,22.053776224897128,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332,156.78520130346726,0.07466867479845028,0.15384615384615385,13,1859,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.51339964310731,0.97470288331872,0.2003144641123554,0.8198383538235912,18.589178477436175,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332,164.28336423660264,0.050564869544840844,0.15384615384615385,13,1751,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.063887246149395,0.9737290818004289,0.2741413481603528,0.7207500792687894,11.404679823044386,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332,157.74777068218458,0.0342077406857538,0.15384615384615385,13,1846,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.436385431386306,1.0145734946111054,0.22244434347014233,0.7670085343880886,15.988061198778789,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332,151.63040440729094,0.01049425944686538,0.3076923076923077,13,2099,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.05276201592193,1.2350248858701454,0.3648319494480692,0.9629343468990457,0.0,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,142.2026167411696,0.0385459468338121,0.23076923076923078,13,2399,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.79444910382921,1.1409241696729837,0.3401538402674782,0.9170540447168674,3.2013224358157433,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,142.45020863320093,0.07808711438191598,0.15384615384615385,13,2391,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.736707151520914,1.6636704821084032,0.28165272663413865,0.7024392728389862,-19.112862785254322,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332,214.1854618343478,-0.0029544905037965172,0.15384615384615385,13,1873,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,15.718840998128105,1.1437937271693157,0.34751773560001564,0.901620101124273,1.938344846791638,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,142.45696256972965,0.05693596764686611,0.15384615384615385,13,2391,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.489540562584466,1.4000642212114902,0.3154244321777026,1.110792241233044,-3.495792162162776,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,147.33026108377064,0.07206969704473044,0.15384615384615385,13,2391,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T11:10:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,121.88401230819176,1.832085017351477,0.15647588815769392,1.605322327018804,14.250004396008906,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875,458.62680796986626,-0.13157574434727332,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,122.67062150546072,1.8091006421267857,0.15446742560397902,1.890272594292707,16.46968866627424,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875,467.56351396181975,-0.19122588123865836,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,121.72272866861253,1.7979678305038134,0.13654836133264842,1.6662304164745512,15.859974263938469,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875,458.4757680567855,-0.17131150418847438,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,121.83327193064088,1.8444793964078385,0.21516296693208609,1.5945266378968777,12.319852546979277,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125,458.5659320430046,-0.07146917379961275,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,122.0302395047769,1.9136750986598425,0.182172895298146,1.7808084487014046,7.313077874973324,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125,458.6968589694881,-0.1727934624931878,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,121.86129250493052,1.8701156384423951,0.20395706505754774,1.6476554819242326,3.877386190246438,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125,458.7390003419629,-0.08663947138973138,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,122.01909176701137,1.8752725006661315,0.18917222433952746,1.6701163893866386,12.136251261092445,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125,458.6863304795357,-0.13275363498888101,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,122.36417698445302,2.0405952209052693,0.2682915809200325,1.6709426124158835,0.0,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875,458.8415676489892,-0.17895402357789852,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,122.18747407252488,2.004552106572177,0.27752218397695794,1.8071499814866885,-3.284339681902566,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875,458.759119959932,-0.04130184242378536,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,164.83336989993603,2.4640096327824907,0.17490674815827167,1.5393433750898977,-26.929710946529752,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125,588.3282290146209,-0.10005791118750519,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,122.26559730615855,2.085914998439788,0.2677448463723824,1.81556809316748,-8.182861306174122,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875,458.7547229266138,0.018636518887482113,0.08333333333333333,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,123.6121816183959,2.392705790745464,0.3943120977953688,2.112812306448432,-13.938501044091803,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875,459.9951718524601,0.02035519691173119,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T03:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,121.88148907044133,1.83195721822777,0.1604982823557472,1.6055027814681762,14.185935975494424,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336,458.61732176524544,-0.11252812529965427,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,122.66713863658258,1.8083570830800635,0.1586421534047757,1.8901216433106673,16.474248279908718,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336,467.5545696862801,-0.1756414656542428,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,121.71981494530411,1.7976551239135012,0.14140198752689043,1.6661020753507054,15.816708114839424,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336,458.46625023487974,-0.14880068167765187,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,121.83065425597992,1.8442873597824299,0.21938016517323225,1.5946523381133269,12.265834304748568,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332,458.5566211558278,-0.0524215547519937,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,122.02650132829467,1.9129147212902262,0.18595338367615238,1.7806255828005957,7.316720486542178,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332,458.6871563396508,-0.15720904690877222,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,121.85835418016086,1.8696192518252077,0.20887688261655205,1.6476012904073645,3.860222152259766,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332,458.7303140130003,-0.07105505580531579,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,122.01457718801844,1.8736498687264052,0.19376263049460277,1.6693299171596614,12.249755446274003,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332,458.67954110500636,-0.15526445749970352,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,122.35821944526326,2.039362425513976,0.2720568149792072,1.6711408196958761,0.0,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,458.8295032967688,-0.16510120972508469,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,122.1825784283174,2.0031044003144802,0.28124379092576823,1.8066311325138014,-3.2274843552534658,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,458.74984062417025,-0.02571742683936977,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,164.81622111247114,2.4574798692081283,0.17930463735042126,1.5389258561321266,-26.443365501910083,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332,588.333984984047,-0.12219600426300645,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,122.26174404973837,2.0848333815504465,0.27196928996117276,1.8155394845977577,-8.152355712783931,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,458.74641504348324,0.04807374832471154,0.08333333333333333,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,123.60867014179898,2.3919922690842177,0.39789154339358357,2.1127323804093088,-13.949754343565132,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,459.98596623017255,0.03940281595935024,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-21T04:05:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.192708725407378,0.8774003198337426,0.15974511535921876,0.6407424046455282,23.40551438784751,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875,136.89210650876143,0.040936679319007865,0.15384615384615385,13,2621,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.362372011591066,0.8806574094443155,0.19555616353964764,0.6741293624759511,24.62228133232033,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875,139.63093853125622,0.04064011929614897,0.15384615384615385,13,2607,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.243004013978755,0.8774405233188628,0.13749177650891228,0.7191491402333914,23.844969607769023,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875,137.1526643048059,0.04222050280798217,0.23076923076923078,13,2602,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.79637531965717,0.9271374675105748,0.24116366898617986,0.6725570096434044,22.05478378597309,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125,156.78530527608729,0.07545751759535285,0.15384615384615385,13,1858,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.513676389518093,0.9748274362254303,0.2002011701861993,0.819957124999972,18.58782590777182,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125,164.2834450027905,0.05135731612650678,0.15384615384615385,13,1750,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.064209842097284,0.9738764058007852,0.2739862962299492,0.7208370950246507,11.400973812190513,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125,157.74779966565953,0.03529017097172391,0.15384615384615385,13,1845,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.43667760589942,1.0147054362936054,0.22226271804422904,0.7671111278595805,15.982443627525466,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125,151.6304288081775,0.011606406151458974,0.3076923076923077,13,2098,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.050993116333395,1.2349464652174484,0.36486364746924416,0.9633176742275125,0.0,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875,142.20040815954147,0.042291976700032825,0.23076923076923078,13,2456,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.798194176176406,1.1428699252885208,0.3404625389525103,0.9189371640569823,3.0918298754468223,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875,142.45146286986795,0.066739507027762,0.15384615384615385,13,2447,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.737753034471066,1.6640269037891688,0.2815193164585341,0.7025152533982296,-19.131858305612475,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125,214.18583766366072,-0.0017111279641590371,0.15384615384615385,13,1872,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,15.731674264497581,1.1478544560384303,0.3479638568867727,0.9048449099618208,1.7929787338088978,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875,142.46828619608695,0.041407217206365865,0.15384615384615385,13,2447,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.530837410056847,1.409142804628755,0.3162373580095006,1.1180749232985983,-3.764235252600506,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875,147.35983710293448,0.050069694842912606,0.15384615384615385,13,2447,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.19259688734444,0.8773566197990008,0.15982135420837043,0.6407221518102286,23.406501175493982,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336,136.89200308568405,0.04044507833182532,0.15384615384615385,13,2622,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.36220568025541,0.8805830580017584,0.1956450949719386,0.6740909112655514,24.626569988836852,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336,139.63086628268331,0.039913534250633646,0.15384615384615385,13,2608,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.242868962131114,0.8773848958194446,0.1376169300859154,0.7190767891276756,23.846912911594902,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336,137.15256598081606,0.041643335563621424,0.23076923076923078,13,2603,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.79614649811132,0.9270379442147131,0.24129983674159278,0.6725021002017003,22.053776224897128,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332,156.78520130346726,0.07466867479845028,0.15384615384615385,13,1859,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.51339964310731,0.97470288331872,0.2003144641123554,0.8198383538235912,18.589178477436175,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332,164.28336423660264,0.050564869544840844,0.15384615384615385,13,1751,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.063887246149395,0.9737290818004289,0.2741413481603528,0.7207500792687894,11.404679823044386,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332,157.74777068218458,0.0342077406857538,0.15384615384615385,13,1846,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.436385431386306,1.0145734946111054,0.22244434347014233,0.7670085343880886,15.988061198778789,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332,151.63040440729094,0.01049425944686538,0.3076923076923077,13,2099,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.050765957708442,1.2348877468706254,0.36495397456544193,0.963277473362589,0.0,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,142.20015135563446,0.04171963923827374,0.23076923076923078,13,2457,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.79799537030313,1.1427833737840771,0.34054313309638357,0.9188807249469384,3.096372955877954,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,142.45136733322644,0.06603808079442088,0.15384615384615385,13,2448,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.736707151520914,1.6636704821084032,0.28165272663413865,0.7024392728389862,-19.112862785254322,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332,214.1854618343478,-0.0029544905037965172,0.15384615384615385,13,1873,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,15.731471826141862,1.1477642276306548,0.348061056904574,0.9047945167680431,1.798023821094358,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,142.46820795253552,0.04068919447701602,0.15384615384615385,13,2448,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.530672312271772,1.4090757095838515,0.3163194995498038,1.1180335141640787,-3.7616576469971292,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336,147.35971444854366,0.04943375748571396,0.15384615384615385,13,2448,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875
-12,Official,ETS,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+12,Official,ETS,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875
-12,Official,ETS,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+12,Official,ETS,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875
-12,Official,ETS,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+12,Official,ETS,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6690623537320999,11,2616,13,32.46875
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6672627356614291,11,2607,13,32.46875
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090707283266883,11,2602,13,32.46875
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5789856451637058,11,1858,13,27.125
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5599685098352317,11,1747,13,29.125
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.523068063129856,11,1845,13,27.125
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5107703935414968,11,2096,13,29.125
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862382994819709,11,2447,13,32.46875
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3798790812190665,11,2447,13,32.46875
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3751333857289716,11,1872,13,27.125
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37461525232954535,11,2447,13,32.46875
-12,Official,ETS,0.3659455518499382,11,2447,13,32.46875
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6688115696448421,11,2617,13,32.552083333333336
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673963006503676,11,2608,13,32.552083333333336
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6090467148209805,11,2603,13,32.552083333333336
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5787241053043434,11,1859,13,27.208333333333332
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598545095564905,11,1748,13,29.208333333333332
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231474106839059,11,1846,13,27.208333333333332
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5108916001279853,11,2097,13,29.208333333333332
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3862225511193129,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.38006793420573237,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3749958983131801,11,1873,13,27.208333333333332
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.3748496067257178,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336
+12,Official,ETS,0.3659917988471417,11,2448,13,32.552083333333336

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -977,6 +977,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.260890
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.452510+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.093759431978136,2.256935850213323,0.004339015902383224,0.3183275016660889,20.56624502900522,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.545458+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.479439+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:57.800950+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7232125153501406,0.8504190233938448,0.6961902869046782,0.5428553014372848,34.92923424378754,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.138614+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0036287268689930885,0.06023891490550845,,0.022027457334275875,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.649018+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:45.763036+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -3480,6 +3481,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.265212
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.461976+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.4556592325654467,1.5670543170437479,0.020653415130605823,1.234320105394473,51.78873142734699,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.552307+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.2761158361191085e-09,,1.8284365387902989e-09,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.483925+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:57.914879+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8102304159422345,0.9001279997546097,0.6696798883371339,0.5943882512463644,29.846145948934602,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.144749+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.490527684581812e-07,0.0009741933937664436,,0.0009379875299948196,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.690297+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:45.805907+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
@@ -5801,6 +5803,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.270729
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.468069+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2719105894031557,1.80884233403665,0.02378585669570156,1.7068386549063383,40.52870467244529,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.560852+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2825236033380433e-15,5.729331202974779e-08,,6.615357107869962e-08,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.489265+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:57.957061+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7552138434186063,0.8690304041968878,0.7634659208176218,0.5678434968597075,33.01428931270258,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.149069+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.4891031361844655e-06,0.00157768917603705,,0.0034261389654488207,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.705364+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:45.824647+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
@@ -7890,6 +7893,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.275721
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.474236+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8189527116020519,0.9049600607772985,0.011271638107362208,0.8305852456916442,80.84403874111143,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.567661+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.494642+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.006127+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7622428758180403,0.8730652185364163,0.6592816996279506,0.560999674348257,32.60093320679243,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.155755+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.014431020069676722,0.12012918075836829,,0.10490280446116117,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.738147+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:45.863051+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -10096,6 +10100,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.283160
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.485230+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.309787296637327,2.70366183104273,0.034811266611800895,1.9753374702409248,2.8031616182932715,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.575288+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.853649481634599e-14,2.8024363474724275e-07,,3.428585403043706e-07,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.502839+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.067879+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.791351220951885,0.8895792381524453,0.6814923929319413,0.5917435173406599,30.9161606116642,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.163056+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.9430992397956305e-06,0.0017155463385742835,,0.0011931495684567263,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.770181+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:45.891922+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
@@ -12195,6 +12200,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.288021
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.491736+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.4237374447877515,2.724653637581803,0.037488460135526445,2.7637860492572544,2.0301945141036306,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.581736+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.507719+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.085882+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7282052411227319,0.853349424985294,0.6963780498305199,0.5455312335932018,34.62684984147076,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.170307+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.01007421197376772,0.10037037398439701,,0.0,-100.00000000000001,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.824210+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:45.915065+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -14644,6 +14650,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.292779
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.498061+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.731416549789619,2.7805424919949737,0.036424606845513414,2.177172859924442,0.0,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.587878+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.512417+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.135831+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4996367379063997,1.2245965612831027,0.7920828592703594,0.9727963862627943,0.0,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.178148+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.844219+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:45.950048+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -16958,6 +16965,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.297287
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.503838+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.163737520818388,2.272385865300695,0.02782959633685173,1.913019756870927,19.91196859620123,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.594039+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.9649048806104552e-15,4.432724760923528e-08,,5.762018293499466e-08,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.517638+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.916786111803368e-16,1.7078600972571987e-08,,2.0122466259519668e-08,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.175851+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7807086606349478,0.8835771956286264,0.8357156827887059,0.5737344692976855,31.527157146076362,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.184497+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.021360343247023135,0.14615178153899847,,0.027294480797351313,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.872147+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.952571421455347e-15,4.418791035402497e-08,,1.965511281746227e-08,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:46.016107+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8975975280818265e-16,1.9742334026355208e-08,,2.00563665354715e-08,0.0,False
@@ -18929,6 +18937,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.303135
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.510391+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.1125728622163655,1.7642485262049579,0.023193992781778788,1.7089306232265418,42.59358352433907,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.600608+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.524661+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.228960+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7849221031196626,0.8859582964901128,0.6780399486512959,0.6960188756063207,31.284579847623355,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.190835+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.556010833077285e-07,0.00039446303161098445,,0.0003861975414931356,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.921211+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:46.049168+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -20998,6 +21007,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.318651
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.528561+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.8187068884976614,1.6789004998801036,0.022099016432478368,1.066736755499767,46.5654235235137,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.617409+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.906315718058047e-17,7.685255830522526e-09,,4.1680416340218845e-09,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.532816+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.341894+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7237618079022049,0.850741916154485,0.6982327102959812,0.5667071365175703,34.89589985865647,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.203116+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,6.701912241357377e-08,0.0002588805176400375,,0.0002604614738883054,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:49.009412+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:46.111950+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
@@ -23605,6 +23615,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.313595
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.522855+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.27479591483727,1.8096397196230165,0.02294278380387806,1.8622739192928397,40.491864474500936,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.611309+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.527925+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.284873+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7736671660082207,0.8795835184951004,0.6858045973238216,0.6374611819871363,31.93455879999424,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.196510+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.9365715848804761e-07,0.00044006494803386424,,0.0016923792593520315,-100.0,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:48.977218+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:46.089026+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -25918,6 +25929,7 @@ future-80a59bc78493335558ad,2026-07-15T00:55:00+00:00,2026-07-16T03:11:25.323734
 future-80ad274d3d3bd84112a7,2026-07-21T20:40:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.534173+00:00,2026-07-21T14:17:14.604591+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.4068402474219965,2.325261328844996,0.030339787589375194,1.5607337253927456,17.69318668562618,True
 future-80c55d7595b5eb6c33ce,2026-07-21T17:20:00+00:00,2026-07-22T01:52:51.623915+00:00,2026-07-21T14:27:27.666428+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3997103870701231,0.6322265314506527,,0.0002823446713465374,-100.0,False
 future-8374d3c17ff540c09b94,2026-07-17T04:30:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:11:26.539752+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.902853+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.290717195680743e-07,0.00035926552794287724,,0.0002719911378310118,-100.0,False
+future-83864f395c86e9482f66,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:51:58.390904+00:00,2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8168623027780804,0.9038043498335689,0.7073522246638566,0.6030226294874921,29.474410441653923,True
 future-83b403b2e5c751c178ba,2026-07-19T12:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T12:23:32.211749+00:00,2026-07-19T09:19:29.482272+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0879374271580632,0.296542454225467,,0.0034936801743092665,-100.00000000000001,False
 future-83b75a87949a79888c11,2026-07-23T14:30:00+00:00,2026-07-23T23:34:49.042838+00:00,2026-07-23T22:50:05.330956+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.5667311800880583e-05,0.003958195523326328,,0.0002834174274438636,-100.0,False
 future-8459d9d38c0c7f6b2d78,2026-07-24T13:45:00+00:00,2026-07-25T16:33:46.144859+00:00,2026-07-25T13:05:37.203329+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1769447265214544,0.42064798409294013,,0.0002631326555417588,-100.0,False

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -9,7 +9,7 @@ ARIMA,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.64266839
 ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.224989505012516,0.8376872389949994,0.03753078258092905,0.6302451084156856,31.472996936085384,9.894620159763747,0.07644529383659818,0.2804556277713832,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.6887482829826201,0.9540036885514395,0.4566297955053868,0.7461177956329675,3.1470638726462545,3.8237247820144815,-0.28120112605567715,9.057596938929015e-07,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.708181502318978,1.213018038814413,0.09454401566012902,0.9460806159180886,-42.96354915049305,1.4475482001763167,-0.015686274509803918,0.7864614601106631,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0942820213863107,1.015807694846594,0.5454330592949076,0.6352260256314877,25.681589249539,0.5384460351935494,0.35806783144912646,3.461823119687569e-10,140,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0916503227619407,1.0146347255455106,0.5465022594907215,0.6345709141123799,25.747175384249985,0.5374288690247903,0.3487335359675785,8.50228697321562e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.19368815726278,3.2432708481639545,0.9485812599476695,2.88149289142794,6.5111983896057275,1752.140039596756,0.22852999067647362,1.8517457722192272e-06,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6143995287769621,1.071300987091728,0.010071875487467954,0.7740100183681309,28.269168769570957,1.8996766414901718,0.07963854998066172,0.06675174172264038,239,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -22,7 +22,7 @@ Chronos-2,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.7878
 Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.770662920708487,0.9383375365561323,0.04147426688621382,0.6664343471483456,32.51750738043405,9.969986449028195,0.026208503203261502,0.6962897689185866,102,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.02785586891715,0.7645296886497267,0.3442084958075155,0.518033025872195,21.88638146494005,2.3488829237605158,-0.3387083770055632,2.6801824527934785e-10,158,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39843412073121276,0.5816743522030585,0.04287278911219057,0.40038261423061633,14.55878920129333,0.31809506761334416,-0.1063576945929887,0.050284842841598065,154,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.042853586857858,0.9910240720175268,0.5354995138301277,0.6365141486693601,28.050192432352233,0.5287165647252547,0.3791895549717379,1.303319405073995e-12,159,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0413996920396353,0.9904559715658838,0.5363381411707965,0.6362508618104663,28.063020671756387,0.5273720647193769,0.3727987421383648,2.6193163766608677e-12,160,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.93780129334408,2.7563092360919526,0.03239236322753366,2.4658236164876883,24.90617011911599,1685.4745042702116,0.21374789618212425,3.464468529119017e-06,213,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.362298354965361,0.9909761575747218,0.009923004027311918,0.7225046602720693,22.098942754948517,1.5901846812739464,0.22059578839239857,1.3058414977773687e-05,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -35,7 +35,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.0
 Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.768843963278756,0.8902673165851895,0.03498639781627768,0.6413761405723531,39.70093271789535,11.382484507106362,0.07441016333938293,0.40932488546762036,58,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5283024504079121,0.6226304952000458,0.38224721858727956,0.4164590636262569,13.009778530945106,0.5824227287220827,-0.45487305487305485,1.4744406235679493e-12,111,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4021177413853758,0.5567117199001299,0.04181130974342789,0.4084427067806432,23.163627349829277,0.4328809775144108,-0.20867389491242697,0.001231790341516876,110,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2291072908674983,1.0854493607203002,0.5707363713258984,0.6956696422198485,28.00376263826608,0.5158586191166523,0.18790218790218788,0.0033149873762053595,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2249135435449419,1.0835341487156682,0.5724419425603384,0.6945384373936527,28.051940779366433,0.5154818339422389,0.17383059418457647,0.00634405866011995,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,212.48574756164203,3.2269971992652864,0.554773947568301,2.949798435378121,29.310718872069184,1941.4691209846785,0.2529874213836478,2.053120842214106e-06,160,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9075679929227745,1.145442111216266,0.010256259035586813,0.8906745144318265,25.146768370353712,2.4464040828135194,0.09780176385415296,0.033282650029523714,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ ETS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,5.8817899578
 ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.972878454121812,0.853143992192325,0.04758814209444523,0.6729960300640387,6.483095468375056,9.382395081066424,0.14811275680840896,0.03651580906292498,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,3.873994336063469,1.0831333111558656,0.5164406254559749,0.8553311523656505,0.13992619226360067,27.30330920863052,-0.2344906683348973,4.216250622389566e-05,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,17.45568497649454,3.4795570720867355,0.27957054899169465,2.8758967550564543,-79.50890754411088,29.532172381799775,-0.05860566448801742,0.3114692067466157,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0648671158583614,0.9960504358443464,0.531880170617662,0.6369026179229422,27.876182135802356,0.5979416116903242,0.39712230215827343,3.375626251359704e-12,140,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0627208446524012,0.9951782002606023,0.5327837275609973,0.6363642991741855,27.90969100864625,0.5963471046096972,0.388855116514691,7.858078893788261e-12,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,178.76364732361125,2.900719583316295,0.05357201105559947,2.686478216300182,21.777737100144545,1752.261783975813,0.14741531130218583,0.0020961241978113437,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3295117699164924,0.9463672571957353,0.008979569418290392,0.6916022759067921,31.367009216121886,1.6457491264731656,0.30895702405890946,9.19671354596505e-10,178,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -61,7 +61,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.868
 Moirai-2.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.670225338703816,0.8791254469903079,0.03496247950075732,0.6108317841224591,37.06055843587799,11.37096795671203,0.09175920514319111,0.30456198913461274,59,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.47965564978060443,0.5956660891730714,0.34848366280670223,0.4013809873615249,15.145933289401857,0.5589006360416241,-0.33848133848133843,1.2200657712154157e-07,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4634963953001367,0.6057082262287827,0.0457034865384179,0.44773524192345965,13.348458130041319,0.46607801147843353,-0.15184275184275184,0.018159226394582992,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1334394319943253,1.038366565465544,0.509240182334573,0.673833132688211,32.2783831863663,0.5276398337201762,0.22123893805309736,0.00048365880179213446,114,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1304647518983042,1.0370727626193432,0.5107380276441154,0.6731193099460583,32.26528489237877,0.5262881896601348,0.21098398169336388,0.0008290829887706363,115,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,210.0189221274689,3.1813411287307973,0.5790501503617447,2.832292384617324,29.472463618135667,1929.5066687859642,0.2956061651713826,2.3597485427031695e-08,162,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.5860092119298526,1.3524317650973139,0.012695978639958229,1.1287234384232716,13.44189853303409,2.9101870458041974,-0.008907024702733534,0.8462843005375524,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -74,7 +74,7 @@ Moving-Average,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2
 Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.8914444303842557,1.068962110527693,0.06617696620566264,0.8956165091670224,16.219078657811732,9.585776068034434,0.03774486383182035,0.5941010151538975,92,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.5017748959195862,0.9857132449331892,0.46385084507789925,0.7665371738183044,-1.8741387168037815,2.526677990525922,-0.3404233135230945,2.758241029305279e-09,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.8972300393378154,0.905663955821756,0.0656862672956634,0.6428948918829159,-27.54572570625701,0.5286612108990583,0.13398692810457516,0.020667200031528266,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0926164068376316,1.0119983326306254,0.5713765326829954,0.6489841223038203,26.299383411206133,0.5762084379282724,0.37142857142857144,7.477998927347418e-11,140,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0900319304850437,1.0108731630728574,0.5722630682656018,0.6482504138732484,26.358443456810843,0.5749664615888548,0.36231003039513676,1.840340051391804e-10,141,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.4243167140933,3.257881756525841,0.07119617911022004,3.041289391642066,3.9061972756374943,1752.1220952404603,0.28488552781518695,2.7646871968739846e-09,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.089598510340393,1.5130203684629175,0.01368788348877177,1.0266377342367037,0.0,3.1864761823370666,-0.013119213724715898,0.775230539748514,214,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -87,7 +87,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3
 Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.907553326809399,1.1113168709918815,0.06395200154691993,0.8936284979553439,0.0,9.58160211148785,0.053763440860215055,0.4452669441695035,93,1.0,2026-07-03T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7655677457950825,1.0513798956631837,0.46749250026515726,0.8685246031221482,0.0,2.6608704543301562,-0.3697841726618705,9.056358287895971e-11,140,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.5257595275603967,0.6783968025240044,0.04968687612655689,0.4852245456137986,0.0,0.38004844223522966,-0.11120652640618289,0.053878796658499574,137,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.918971559566048,1.332990629518431,0.6509919350093941,1.04700718291182,0.0,1.0989020122273105,0.5353596757852076,4.5731372169242245e-21,141,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.9160184974416845,1.3322272910097313,0.6519855330675701,1.0464845716678126,0.0,1.0955635614361836,0.5279192887823394,1.148744327006388e-20,142,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.74708443224495,3.3298522945489433,0.08551667193787647,2.7973411447202157,0.0,1747.6927583708946,0.28622128972911903,2.2698863705780893e-09,198,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.3336485273273295,1.369431003685908,0.014044892580721374,1.0786778106569637,3.2340679926689107,2.076739478282935,-0.15919790758500432,0.00125367582101177,186,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -100,7 +100,7 @@ Sundial,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,3.206817
 Sundial,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.881456278598701,1.0224167870279186,0.04675885085597254,0.7204555593446484,14.578590822390296,10.258215961261458,0.11796042617960426,0.13985682980676,73,1.0,2026-07-05T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.0630461559506057,0.7620902896007227,0.37385369039603655,0.5309431911283826,17.80461534628412,2.4594593887470606,-0.38192656821568893,4.426442662450618e-10,122,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4935316464495441,0.6450704870347259,0.04821520329257284,0.47379551436301814,7.588113899777261,0.4018592296435696,-0.07762427004700186,0.2106635657057584,119,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.255492244447649,1.0979824296912708,0.585980722157873,0.7404488604721113,22.39860385942794,0.5138348088490263,0.2100708103855232,0.0005401912643810933,124,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.251693975777147,1.0962671878187695,0.5879786018429195,0.739115145342716,22.471632285721125,0.5135175973238089,0.19561290322580646,0.001215626874239255,125,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,204.45836987978544,3.417189399018783,0.2845993214047572,3.044217189388549,10.199766461057873,1869.0971648946827,0.28713536765694314,2.0439335477667005e-08,173,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2930236112584452,0.9657022022428051,0.009435472005290437,0.8282398664622558,23.80957906614156,1.5209091532305468,0.3034135726914185,3.4484971719621384e-09,172,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -113,7 +113,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.9011
 TabPFN-TS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,3.0669307026933486,0.9634836711907595,0.03523961683690969,0.736313878115392,32.539994057587926,11.885777737268304,0.1264849755415793,0.1769092815963943,54,1.0,2026-07-06T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5207593688768749,0.6059324744797115,0.33946578899065166,0.4981886145297968,11.250230807649105,0.7087378179560665,-0.3686662783925451,4.0035572769852415e-08,102,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4424570805013235,0.609237468913479,0.04596361064961649,0.5016786492264811,8.317577513717845,0.42162408715493516,-0.23287128712871294,0.0005592909204218427,101,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1590832505019304,1.0543538263627152,0.5484316971287074,0.8565975060733048,29.473489067051894,0.49574421716368006,0.1182181610508281,0.07679867794610927,103,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1554855471617163,1.0527346385754788,0.5496779303164246,0.8550534807803529,29.491072472688508,0.4946942567215266,0.10791635548917103,0.1044931719451935,104,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,231.39269497520343,3.477537322802294,0.025956783737213458,3.291594014936264,22.617582389868872,2024.9879561672885,0.27350666293914827,8.852561820264672e-07,147,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6044818304930752,1.0733341728449766,0.00990931419231941,0.775637081946561,29.88973440242601,1.785704738010647,0.053788604049214615,0.21659803303164127,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -126,7 +126,7 @@ TiRex,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.89564025
 TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.468994721394927,0.8596170375096616,0.037194240537534014,0.6036450284928152,41.50715153356337,9.60643761665164,0.0716831683168317,0.28815304090301486,101,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9553859737915604,0.7349143048700336,0.32749906333795475,0.5072903190827633,23.278273669160622,2.176305088417372,-0.2878411910669975,9.66939736663388e-08,156,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.40039407274824257,0.5757323686572832,0.04262929269168316,0.4119597574001226,16.841760024091734,0.36109293968121936,-0.07408388520971303,0.1770547176696976,151,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0654063713403248,1.003459779166658,0.5436698809743161,0.6456859226787635,27.09054499858563,0.5183879353621482,0.38314551690347864,1.065644016280355e-12,157,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0632440639767924,1.0024932104134163,0.5446481267295167,0.645186056943566,27.146297533300423,0.5174487039145088,0.37369991131177943,3.19761308814089e-12,158,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,168.0711510826744,2.747626696106807,0.29790952558091216,2.8504494241334366,28.217170104193542,1721.329357068176,0.25753375659483146,2.4253889538801623e-08,212,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6453848622382907,1.0815005714223864,0.010579608774461076,0.8863769556681769,27.825438502908504,1.8968683448062447,0.06908388757777299,0.1132848151615818,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -139,7 +139,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,2.69
 TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.473458750158442,0.883920069404717,0.039945153768864705,0.7179661355505145,37.40913646012532,9.426150906207923,0.060606060606060615,0.3716242470071768,100,1.0,2026-07-04T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.0055797219013838,0.7517175499760977,0.3192245281916464,0.5773783063411879,19.355009320160686,2.3567786455997046,-0.31043150397989105,9.896939322329878e-09,155,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4559332200357897,0.612331512201544,0.054318587455278095,0.46862019483793116,11.72485945910723,0.4242874966561998,-0.046004415011037525,0.4018934291528179,151,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0493079870477915,0.9931192448077559,0.4696643698394044,0.7851297887529494,28.397745836898984,0.5385172988133257,0.37105045492142263,6.223096595701873e-12,156,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0475523130284314,0.9923960873153186,0.4710410591864389,0.7841892243786447,28.42300878663538,0.5372390869456428,0.36354728074473297,1.4042489419322144e-11,157,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,166.69851657117286,2.7741293583505944,0.09381379526156737,2.573318441269919,25.9242161388133,1689.4153211379646,0.25655012071894845,2.7407702503886762e-08,212,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.28199037431467,1.2978356815478813,0.009816543535913609,0.7495388373219307,-0.37220432904438483,2.8635395035234312,0.19739292364990688,8.348137639666252e-05,180,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T02:00:00+00:00
@@ -152,6 +152,6 @@ Toto-1.0,noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Ocean,10min,72,55.8935
 Toto-1.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.45680483631431,1.7566451020306872,0.03543346962187676,0.6053896244254073,-21.810618327960736,31.64405952117616,0.15141242937853108,0.0873982232047124,60,1.0,2026-07-07T21:00:00+00:00,2026-07-15T23:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.8393055244351615,1.1402356119049042,0.3920846653690491,0.4222532284837786,-31.208435602748082,3.1096309153263073,-0.42604298356510745,2.237398035686739e-11,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4651649471910055,0.5977159029216539,0.039658822284072026,0.3819123581356033,13.941038759334198,0.6384989130895222,-0.16855036855036856,0.008734084692102254,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.40765026996175,1.4459217262784392,0.5356533286608569,0.7185890600968053,3.792466917429815,2.248242343383199,0.1697151424287856,0.0069123572941991295,116,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.3940537916097533,1.441288244428483,0.5371208405925065,0.7176013128266404,4.039408682085815,2.243356562315245,0.15355142941349836,0.01410361848672397,117,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,283.19099663832344,4.139105791274943,0.9311607837364494,2.752764668024884,0.4377181439752126,2463.886164213718,0.17596887625317972,0.0008242067098647464,164,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.493430638855567,1.1822810283926517,0.2168787045319125,0.7022572165896811,34.8197182017094,0.749996768684687,0.1515151515151515,0.5452047007776174,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:13.837792+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:03.809264+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -23,17 +23,17 @@ Finance,ARIMA,0.7656469925175853,0.8726648351309003,9,2,2,1.0
 Finance,TimesFM-2.5,0.7509292241567388,0.7997334332457952,10,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Moving-Average,0.6768132814477055,0.8634280187640179,11,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,2,2,1.0
-Hazards,ARIMA,0.7462605338771628,0.6602389941338824,1,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Moirai-2.0,0.7281972824447458,0.7036277604367918,2,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Moving-Average,0.7963258085146442,0.7048427412162565,3,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,ETS,0.809776317650158,0.710565582563525,4,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,TiRex,0.7511298479231767,0.7109186139465105,5,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Chronos-2,0.7534297278308838,0.7119169634144598,6,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Chronos-Bolt,0.7729864769258858,0.7208785296894106,7,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Toto-1.0,3.104943165143809,0.7627829975233916,8,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.7247978632328378,0.8249918557759415,9,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,Sundial,1.0169587977425802,0.9183235752037384,10,1,1,1.0
-Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.7939141618582515,0.9372016432334698,11,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,ARIMA,0.4822584677138526,0.5580358943589209,1,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Moving-Average,0.48558775783217917,0.5607866572047793,2,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,ETS,0.5082850109968539,0.5766876627733553,3,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,TiRex,0.4826247514532275,0.5825547303837108,4,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Chronos-Bolt,0.5035978542863248,0.5837228682984729,5,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Sundial,0.5205985162279188,0.5897785779219527,6,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Moirai-2.0,0.527695275094866,0.6082912371970967,7,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Chronos-2,0.5402844538693913,0.6110099293541109,8,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,Toto-1.0,0.5447067827362504,0.6198857623270299,9,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.5159030493533491,0.6552873663892604,10,1,1,1.0
+Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.5234081583087049,0.7154825875538315,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
 Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.7652594641159696,1.057507146740559,2,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 1D,Toto-1.0,1.1828445386062165,0.7008146109363338,10,1,1,1.0
 1D,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 1D,TabPFN-TS,0.8629829581417852,1.004036040514957,12,1,1,1.0
-1h,TiRex,0.9012706764368329,0.9273952307668324,1,6,6,1.0
-1h,Toto-1.0,4.352025432919427,0.8503819800878996,2,6,6,1.0
-1h,Chronos-2,1.1288571252932564,0.9299193177112922,3,6,6,1.0
-1h,TabPFN-TS,0.7625044096842334,0.9155915456759044,4,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moirai-2.0,1.2380692959194626,0.9973593802529491,5,6,6,1.0
-1h,Sundial,1.5843179936241654,1.0203503495110324,6,6,6,1.0
+1h,TiRex,0.8372162894276393,0.8971209516118537,1,6,6,1.0
+1h,Toto-1.0,3.2561890590512172,0.8214840930715801,2,6,6,1.0
+1h,Sundial,1.4170188125127388,0.947759604668177,3,6,6,1.0
+1h,TabPFN-TS,0.7113557550300112,0.8753117904570822,4,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-2,1.067994292552349,0.9065291160501199,5,6,6,1.0
+1h,Chronos-Bolt,1.2426024059300191,0.9198571059877861,6,6,6,1.0
 1h,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,6,6,1.0
-1h,Chronos-Bolt,1.3345869105156423,0.9527879695256491,8,6,6,1.0
-1h,TimesFM-2.5,1.020928067213842,1.0865385141010324,9,6,6,1.0
-1h,ARIMA,5.049569280552733,2.256374319830938,10,6,6,1.0
-1h,Moving-Average,2.9706593028348336,1.8361171325192194,11,6,6,1.0
-1h,ETS,19.958849302717287,4.852842456429281,12,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moirai-2.0,1.1733672935705979,0.9734487887416842,8,6,6,1.0
+1h,ARIMA,4.695183457657036,2.194006832457069,9,6,6,1.0
+1h,TimesFM-2.5,0.9646882940417194,1.0456238503994342,10,6,6,1.0
+1h,Moving-Average,2.735577373168362,1.7674669013506978,11,6,6,1.0
+1h,ETS,18.46825536346129,4.68689914189554,12,6,6,1.0
 1mo,Moirai-2.0,0.5701893078499076,0.5711658118752873,1,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Chronos-Bolt,0.6722527938921684,0.6335328970612374,2,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Toto-1.0,0.6317640740160342,0.6385745807295035,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,31038.805536136984,13199.630760140804,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.991705651816758,0.9642337198054697,1,7,7,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,3.6985197874738778,0.9099236672027473,2,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,1.1937859309458816,0.9678264500343697,3,7,7,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,4,7,7,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,1.2442773759954677,1.0190373339562788,5,7,7,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.8608402818528158,0.9978769611241393,6,7,7,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,1.3574086843868183,1.0009554714345914,7,7,7,1.0
-24,Sundial,1.5426940838266079,1.0628688388906578,8,7,7,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,2.4473928340672564,1.696951275778114,9,7,7,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,1.1090739864616972,1.1451794178966446,10,7,7,1.0
-24,ARIMA,4.356625710317693,2.243351556516162,11,7,7,1.0
-24,ETS,14.667339371124463,4.232941238802142,12,7,7,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.9309774369395093,0.9371898552924247,1,7,7,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,2.884320630396638,0.8833545597391912,2,7,7,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,3,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,1.1384002636366242,0.9469225880611203,4,7,7,1.0
+24,Sundial,1.4019641076605243,0.997716795668816,5,7,7,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,1.2768110124099628,0.9712278598082961,6,7,7,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.8111011195140356,0.960128332365197,7,7,7,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,1.1883281063757325,0.9980608894705922,8,7,7,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,2.2804191282829307,1.6424207969455864,9,7,7,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,1.0564959386447839,1.1081161062870235,10,7,7,1.0
+24,ARIMA,4.093200511636659,2.1900961888025345,11,7,7,1.0
+24,ETS,13.723262599777472,4.108566399207834,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,0.8801017473388156,2.93769149096302,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,1.034292075099651,4.456133946837042,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,1.095062913453025,3.0132958977805258,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.068269498982676,6.699766057877026,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,95.28186309826783,17.78000621889312,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.8972679030868074,1.0055335771067948,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,1.3853795307701626,8.18421765656212,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.9480320196399094,1.0209608366375973,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.2227469794112413,7.452559710595878,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,2.28252416824654,10.331334035439307,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,4.512234627152174,14.843372053311269,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.8506590809346747,2.893034649329643,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.9823673800295466,4.3069061732399385,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,1.0674064396757312,2.9780744039820224,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.0421300457823208,6.62514951888042,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,83.34216707922364,17.498545822350565,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.8689688423801453,0.9848692533158117,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,1.3336562840138853,8.04153817032242,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.9235606167507879,1.0030334145979591,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,1.183101854654188,7.332550289852083,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,2.2071403629651187,10.198540294641422,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,4.353448227938762,14.606913496847381,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,ARIMA,1.1903152426799333,1.2324
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.33228586127163234,0.22104454915678584,0.36362891565490346,0.26312846157942765,0.022250183536134175,0.02191393413024315,2.960766211760618,0.5764424180016876,0.03447450399419848,0.021747057665548703,0.019463503681897795,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ARIMA,0.18230749922286849,0.183752748404339,nan,nan,0.7388780687520423,nan,nan,0.42697482270371456,nan,nan,0.3354118428799675,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ARIMA,2.7311828083012557,2.6264865820946706,nan,nan,0.1724078621252385,nan,nan,1.6526290594992137,nan,nan,1.40979110551692,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.6266602589381393,0.660893910468025,nan,nan,0.3980590192837615,nan,nan,0.7916187585815152,nan,nan,0.4602942888548813,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.7232125153501406,0.7923220063009001,nan,nan,0.6961902869046782,nan,nan,0.8504190233938448,nan,nan,0.5428553014372848,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,5.463298469296493,9.066976072956653,nan,nan,0.09941960441147114,nan,nan,2.337369989816865,nan,nan,3.0128163353165034,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ARIMA,0.41946174479404164,0.3887520067886783,nan,nan,0.12900699451842257,nan,nan,0.6476586637991046,nan,nan,0.4079750467727446,Web,1,7

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.224390+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.541860+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.118358+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:57.800950+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-2,1.2590344320617552,1.
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763978935275495,0.4551292260487874,0.3293397414624391,0.02734639793034648,0.02740698654518156,1.2449814398684094,0.4771161172636646,0.02853423165374086,0.027219291695583462,0.02293888289302154,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.03526190188175566,0.03526190188175566,nan,nan,0.2142754133607554,nan,nan,0.1877815269981466,nan,nan,0.1128105078936095,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.16410673128769995,0.16410673128769995,nan,nan,0.03774184875099514,nan,nan,0.4051008902578467,nan,nan,0.20244880321228498,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.6326804740446184,0.6326804740446184,nan,nan,0.4433038595658039,nan,nan,0.7954121409964889,nan,nan,0.49632226407417623,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.8102304159422345,0.8102304159422345,nan,nan,0.6696798883371339,nan,nan,0.9001279997546097,nan,nan,0.5943882512463644,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,5.076688428663051,5.076688428663051,nan,nan,0.07430929788919967,nan,nan,2.253150778057929,nan,nan,1.710286926999298,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,0.5379146607901764,0.5379146607901764,nan,nan,0.17100514688638668,nan,nan,0.7334266567218404,nan,nan,0.48842848142456025,Web,1,7

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.011386+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.360420+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.190431+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:57.914879+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.7752367698739588
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.3455539255669464,0.3455539255669464,0.35915493965148926,0.2598910116071078,0.022263105377559073,0.021625170449781378,1.7395006304410234,0.5878383498606963,0.035156044918533885,0.021479488696328264,0.02138024583258913,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.0315256687512563,0.0315256687512563,nan,nan,0.22687084756933662,nan,nan,0.17755469228172005,nan,nan,0.11324269104945375,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.1450432602667658,0.1450432602667658,nan,nan,0.035637463604013306,nan,nan,0.3808454545701784,nan,nan,0.20019480474159065,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.6491029389821512,0.6491029389821512,nan,nan,0.49437286959453,nan,nan,0.805669249122834,nan,nan,0.502569937738113,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.7552138434186063,0.7552138434186063,nan,nan,0.7634659208176218,nan,nan,0.8690304041968878,nan,nan,0.5678434968597075,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,4.5690129082390865,4.5690129082390865,nan,nan,0.07001007111390248,nan,nan,2.137524949150088,nan,nan,1.8710435730709425,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.4719500001866968,0.4719500001866968,nan,nan,0.16251649824562261,nan,nan,0.6869861717579887,nan,nan,0.5467640302159011,Web,1,7

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.134210+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.470313+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.246292+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:57.957061+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,ETS,1.0073585195073993,1.014979
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,7.485363061070757,7.069546909402846,2.3835086205114373,1.7247499565509898,0.14388404150048517,0.1583681265446001,69.43260805973387,2.7359391552208825,0.1636245744397495,0.1425472430409996,0.1432604803385527,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ETS,2.5428888835315244,2.530076537593773,nan,nan,2.5997353215947006,nan,nan,1.5946438108654624,nan,nan,1.342557334959072,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ETS,12.452798370269898,12.34115277861862,nan,nan,0.3773771852016556,nan,nan,3.528852273795249,nan,nan,3.208539109591422,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,0.6799966149411162,0.7128696062257945,nan,nan,0.4503123163113331,nan,nan,0.8246190726275473,nan,nan,0.4953801311597622,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,0.7622428758180403,0.8151351844680578,nan,nan,0.6592816996279506,nan,nan,0.8730652185364163,nan,nan,0.560999674348257,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,7.023855660273981,6.731590385041176,nan,nan,0.08549485016070735,nan,nan,2.6502557726140283,nan,nan,2.5922489560163284,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ETS,0.5074210195682924,0.45386653897851287,nan,nan,0.15015696096508702,nan,nan,0.7123349068860043,nan,nan,0.46371001820340635,Web,1,7

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.212377+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.536414+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.282327+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.006127+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Moirai-2.0,1.140632293812692,1.
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.14372890600255536,0.14372890600255536,0.31227461496988934,0.22596756058122644,0.019022853516839414,0.018851775659897613,1.4879776077653897,0.3791159532419539,0.02267326975973139,0.018675781179300244,0.020424282056145146,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.10564495280678117,0.10564495280678117,nan,nan,0.5133721685666653,nan,nan,0.3250306951762882,nan,nan,0.18316449274985008,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.0734721900284958,0.0734721900284958,nan,nan,0.02275719324431839,nan,nan,0.2710575400694395,nan,nan,0.17434889344453325,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.611491934598256,0.611491934598256,nan,nan,0.4355642370089461,nan,nan,0.7819794975562058,nan,nan,0.4905433373163214,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.791351220951885,0.791351220951885,nan,nan,0.6814923929319413,nan,nan,0.8895792381524453,nan,nan,0.5917435173406599,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,3.898341674431117,3.898341674431117,nan,nan,0.06430451206600145,nan,nan,1.9744218582742434,nan,nan,1.6120510590081123,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moirai-2.0,0.48766161312112155,0.48766161312112155,nan,nan,0.162052999946506,nan,nan,0.6983277261580851,nan,nan,0.4355676130387057,Web,1,7

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.110232+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.447375+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.320294+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.067879+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Moving-Average,0.85353659917218
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.493630847038398,1.7000589878686503,1.2217104150537874,0.8840517576268612,0.07388203163275463,0.07085183080330068,7.145487999616988,1.2221419095335853,0.07309097114634891,0.07306516534562585,0.06611845332434199,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.041860988151372104,0.04105282324310995,nan,nan,0.2848457047844908,nan,nan,0.20459958003713521,nan,nan,0.13257482543254462,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.46389363365167996,0.46328472542874694,nan,nan,0.06932678004397415,nan,nan,0.6810973745740618,nan,nan,0.5319686690368313,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.6687017666206255,0.7008452839613178,nan,nan,0.43836901278883134,nan,nan,0.8177418704093765,nan,nan,0.49139037712891187,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.7282052411227319,0.7756597725288321,nan,nan,0.6963780498305199,nan,nan,0.853349424985294,nan,nan,0.5455312335932018,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,2.3266866437250706,2.1604682277697536,nan,nan,0.048429203539823,nan,nan,1.525348040194457,nan,nan,1.4704203232774926,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moving-Average,0.5225479238151219,0.4638223057159223,nan,nan,0.15401827526707126,nan,nan,0.7228747635760443,nan,nan,0.46633423707628346,Web,1,7

results/moving_average/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.198010+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.504069+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.360303+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.085882+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/online_status.json

@@ -1,17 +1,23 @@
 {
-    "status": "ok",
+    "status": "partial",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "started_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:13.210520+00:00",
-    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:16.242490+00:00",
+    "started_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:53.281916+00:00",
+    "finished_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:06.194056+00:00",
     "data_source": "ts_bench",
     "data_config": "configs/datasets/ts_bench.yaml",
-    "task_count": 2,
+    "task_count": 4,
     "issued_tasks": 1,
     "issued_forecasts": 12,
     "resolved_forecasts": 12,
     "pending_tasks": 13,
-    "failed_forecasts": [],
+    "failed_forecasts": [
+        {
+            "model": "Seasonal-Naive",
+            "dataset": "nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short",
+            "error": "Mean forecast length 10 < 24"
+        }
+    ],
     "models": {
         "Chronos-2": {
             "model": "Chronos-2",
@@ -19,15 +25,15 @@
             "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
             "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.011386+00:00",
+            "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.360420+00:00",
             "resolved_tasks": [
                 {
-                    "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-                    "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.190431+00:00",
-                    "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-                    "prediction_length": 72,
+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+                    "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+                    "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+                    "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:57.914879+00:00",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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+                    "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
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@@ -262,7 +268,5 @@
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-    "push_status": "ok",
-    "pushed_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:45.112825+00:00",
-    "push_detail": "HF Hub API"
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

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+    "2026-07-23T18:00:00",
+    "2026-07-23T19:00:00",
+    "2026-07-23T20:00:00",
+    "2026-07-23T21:00:00",
+    "2026-07-23T22:00:00",
+    "2026-07-23T23:00:00",
+    "2026-07-24T00:00:00",
+    "2026-07-24T01:00:00",
+    "2026-07-24T02:00:00",
+    "2026-07-24T03:00:00",
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+    "2026-07-25T20:00:00",
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+    "2026-07-25T22:00:00",
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+    "2026-07-26T00:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T01:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T02:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T03:00:00",
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+    "2026-07-26T05:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T06:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T07:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T08:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T09:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T10:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T11:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T12:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T13:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T14:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T15:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T16:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T17:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T18:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T19:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T20:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T21:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T22:00:00",
+    "2026-07-26T23:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T00:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T01:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T02:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T03:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T04:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T05:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T06:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T07:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T08:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T09:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T10:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T11:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T12:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T13:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T14:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T15:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T16:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T17:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T18:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T19:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T20:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T21:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T22:00:00",
+    "2026-07-27T23:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T00:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T01:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T02:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T03:00:00",
+    "2026-07-28T04:00:00"
+  ],
+  "context_start": "2026-07-21 05:00",
+  "context_end": "2026-07-28 04:00",
+  "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:16.458672Z",
+  "task_id": "future-0db978111893f9ab7ecd",
+  "issued_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.898311+00:00",
+  "status": "open",
+  "scored_models": [],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+}

results/prequential/tasks/future-83864f395c86e9482f66.json

@@ -349,7 +349,23 @@
   "data_fetched_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:04.748791Z",
   "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
   "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
-  "status": "open",
-  "scored_models": [],
-  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
+  "status": "resolved",
+  "scored_models": [
+    "ARIMA",
+    "Chronos-2",
+    "Chronos-Bolt",
+    "ETS",
+    "Moirai-2.0",
+    "Moving-Average",
+    "Seasonal-Naive",
+    "Sundial",
+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
+    "TimesFM-2.5",
+    "Toto-1.0"
+  ],
+  "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+  "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.411709+00:00",
+  "target_start": "2026-07-27T05:00:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00"
 }

results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.19266333384133
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4220830567678604,1.4220830567678604,1.1374998887379963,0.8231154973782487,0.06849731872919221,0.06598468274623316,18.192842105640498,1.1925112396819832,0.07131889016436462,0.06802890147057772,0.06090870857230404,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.012839820821143285,0.012839820821143285,nan,nan,0.12573229372802033,nan,nan,0.11331293315920864,nan,nan,0.08558102887643954,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.048492726544822805,0.048492726544822805,nan,nan,0.016264737771392934,nan,nan,0.22021064130696047,nan,nan,0.12620355450175305,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.8397338871484389,0.8397338871484389,nan,nan,0.4702298246415893,nan,nan,0.9163699510287528,nan,nan,0.6971631378099782,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4996367379063997,1.4996367379063997,nan,nan,0.7920828592703594,nan,nan,1.2245965612831027,nan,nan,0.9727963862627943,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,3.0403892442060383,3.0403892442060383,nan,nan,0.05039438245479031,nan,nan,1.743671197274887,nan,nan,1.3904589938797214,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.1956686926031785,1.1956686926031785,nan,nan,0.24653455434324129,nan,nan,1.0934663655564256,nan,nan,0.8509378537691182,Web,1,7

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.260013+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.551893+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.405292+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.135831+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Sundial,1.1304476064801594,1.14
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Sundial,0.8427959919452709,0.728805377540842,0.6027306715647379,0.43614681761468477,0.037071160344855525,0.03572165078421854,7.949536290001031,0.9180392104617705,0.05490391657437408,0.03604668965257109,0.027748537362407476,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Sundial,0.0998453487697832,0.059222242613951814,nan,nan,0.40525379318442406,nan,nan,0.3159831463381919,nan,nan,0.16637762231625383,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Sundial,0.08005927082392682,0.08839528147546753,nan,nan,0.02753852375541584,nan,nan,0.2829474700786823,nan,nan,0.15517308543499334,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.85397476429818,0.8089495661511584,nan,nan,0.6288718576933934,nan,nan,0.9241075501791878,nan,nan,0.6402213452139157,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.7807086606349478,0.7757135753093496,nan,nan,0.8357156827887059,nan,nan,0.8835771956286264,nan,nan,0.5737344692976855,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,3.9979168536598664,4.423806752692526,nan,nan,0.06926394075220237,nan,nan,1.9994791455926382,nan,nan,1.888078307119778,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Sundial,0.3632078483298184,0.3563015156678547,nan,nan,0.1391300563020866,nan,nan,0.602667278296921,nan,nan,0.44954022702632723,Web,1,7

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.195974+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.502205+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.431275+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.175851+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -107,6 +107,6 @@ temperature_rain/D/short,TabPFN-TS,192.348170645723,192.348170645723,5.973571384
 us_births/D/short,TabPFN-TS,112759.78666666668,112759.78666666668,215.285703125,0.31694359235351605,0.020599613189697264,0.02048578898111979,2.2508974742308343,335.79724040954636,0.03147826645095531,0.020181287725250033,0.015855619215830008,Healthcare,1
 us_births/M/short,TabPFN-TS,59338602.666666664,59338602.666666664,6332.360677083333,0.7153333155562595,0.019422224412361785,0.019690368324518204,4.7156280861706295,7703.155370798817,0.0239259480622513,0.01966826908953116,0.015286944232309424,Healthcare,1
 us_births/W/short,TabPFN-TS,1737954.0,1737954.0,983.3291015625,0.8942316441355983,0.013318025640078954,0.013351580926350184,6.532085345899004,1318.3148334142345,0.0178959945969944,0.01334859613394065,0.010610700543554966,Healthcare,1
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.6666766251994244,0.6666766251994244,nan,nan,0.5080896746125784,nan,nan,0.8165026792359131,nan,nan,0.6533824383573135,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.7849221031196626,0.7849221031196626,nan,nan,0.6780399486512959,nan,nan,0.8859582964901128,nan,nan,0.6960188756063207,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,5.419174015481595,5.419174015481595,nan,nan,0.07682027705467648,nan,nan,2.3279119432404642,nan,nan,2.3253402712928946,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TabPFN-TS,1.0318417053002116,1.0318417053002116,nan,nan,0.21346065016808555,nan,nan,1.0157960943517215,nan,nan,0.8543722734226411,Web,1,7

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.155323+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.483856+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.453261+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.228960+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.1073154863140786,
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.1617179170793861,0.26413559913635254,0.1911332978675114,0.01630353750267156,0.01601217538840988,10.994616695384883,0.4650043583043965,0.027809880236186378,0.015796796840529412,0.021259949519123158,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.03785281024197016,0.017934866424511135,nan,nan,0.21483569476265685,nan,nan,0.19455798683675302,nan,nan,0.19205918049403484,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.06591225974664346,0.03575909793348882,nan,nan,0.01791180333102477,nan,nan,0.2567338305456518,nan,nan,0.19379445942016174,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086373270893934,0.641798892026256,nan,nan,0.34810479649554643,nan,nan,0.7801521179163673,nan,nan,0.5751539108404323,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.7736671660082207,0.9192549938039831,nan,nan,0.6858045973238216,nan,nan,0.8795835184951004,nan,nan,0.6374611819871363,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,5.54219699972541,6.215406233869209,nan,nan,0.08228977408365698,nan,nan,2.3541871207967753,nan,nan,2.1827408275623315,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.38719216672060525,0.341005570724447,nan,nan,0.12667853599052806,nan,nan,0.6222476731339421,nan,nan,0.5343002043100503,Web,1,7

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.042343+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.415885+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.481382+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.284873+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TiRex,1.4238372695361832,1.4238
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.1330410943866506,0.1330410943866506,0.2665089766184489,0.19285071674902834,0.016340940517305648,0.0161404612437938,1.417522257895925,0.3647479875018512,0.021813984466305555,0.01593873818441926,0.018680112149927236,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TiRex,0.054159833785722145,0.054159833785722145,nan,nan,0.3703851807315448,nan,nan,0.23272265421682123,nan,nan,0.16469205232297768,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TiRex,0.050978502304613114,0.050978502304613114,nan,nan,0.01897836106835057,nan,nan,0.2257841940982874,nan,nan,0.145504435828122,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.6307491869497449,0.6307491869497449,nan,nan,0.46094357720472107,nan,nan,0.7941971965134005,nan,nan,0.49562625162646984,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.7237618079022049,0.7237618079022049,nan,nan,0.6982327102959812,nan,nan,0.850741916154485,nan,nan,0.5667071365175703,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,5.351521304236548,5.351521304236548,nan,nan,0.07634472120812692,nan,nan,2.313335536457379,nan,nan,1.6937341387248428,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TiRex,0.5500816371095917,0.5500816371095917,nan,nan,0.16152377391214015,nan,nan,0.7416748863953745,nan,nan,0.5062535723576331,Web,1,7

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.025708+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.400402+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.520294+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.341894+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -10,6 +10,6 @@ noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Toto-1.0,2.554995718742831,1.22
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.2061994614582545,0.2026127577197864,0.29392051696777344,0.2126862032329617,0.01814908932063847,0.017779550705114375,1.3101507982416967,1.7905863457142341,0.10708715077088915,0.017578102720665366,0.014884503464531462,Weather,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.3828962962540734,0.01469619627481291,nan,nan,0.17991828117972739,nan,nan,0.618786147432272,nan,nan,0.10713310781079002,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.06799423538503908,0.053116427317535554,nan,nan,0.020841131477064834,nan,nan,0.26075704282921885,nan,nan,0.14851172111139277,Weather,1,24
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,2.6073259934411883,0.6788292400503413,nan,nan,0.4993245712545904,nan,nan,1.6147216458080904,nan,nan,0.5317841880215085,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.8168623027780804,0.8057370308350262,nan,nan,0.7073522246638566,nan,nan,0.9038043498335689,nan,nan,0.6030226294874921,Hazards,1,24
 usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,4.236198141488906,4.3338073099759296,nan,nan,0.06843427359882005,nan,nan,2.0582026483048033,nan,nan,1.8989285392423076,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Toto-1.0,1.4142901830281045,0.7431608109672617,nan,nan,0.20031694349088386,nan,nan,1.1892393295834547,nan,nan,0.5963496809202035,Web,1,7

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:40:11.076216+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-28T04:54:01.417853+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-04da4cde3499a48ab554",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:29:26.019702+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:37:18.567772+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-27T05:20:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 72,
+            "dataset": "usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short",
+            "task_id": "future-83864f395c86e9482f66",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T04:25:38.709033+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-28T04:51:58.390904+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-28T04:00:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]