Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:17.003360+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:48.110590+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,8 +13,8 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 26942,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2667,
+  "num_model_releases": 26954,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2668,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
@@ -25,21 +25,21 @@
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2610,
-      "num_unique_releases": 218,
+      "num_model_releases": 2490,
+      "num_unique_releases": 208,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26595,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2616,
+      "num_model_releases": 26587,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2612,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 4554
+    "prequential-v1": 4566
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,486.7146418447636,5.797372364674671,0.2750061014450466,5.487196040696715,-8.546935763065822,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667,1904.0690821469916,-0.5265125319473145,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,465.3640350137891,5.63939705415986,0.2553687813847951,6.6190948917331065,-2.443169185690732,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667,1822.644273240601,-0.3042903097250923,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,485.78548818776335,5.725244870717026,0.29767714400666806,5.615027054294532,-2.6059908270408636,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667,1905.7473059579897,-0.07146307472394424,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,486.3739861872719,5.880765998295456,0.7370154824337697,5.61139985845914,-20.376658134355864,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666,1905.4807445961062,-0.07146307472394424,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,486.7829458301856,5.841501607744663,0.307861031166993,5.731452757533366,-3.8969970731248855,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666,1904.4506155650863,-0.4154014208362034,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,485.5033077689412,5.8588701293994,0.5272266273440755,5.537945735108004,-17.22847002432098,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666,1907.2458488840264,-0.2936852969461665,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,486.86083821852696,5.823989414263731,0.3634536015921339,5.653653905906957,-10.337937684563801,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666,1903.9258900898694,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,486.6695345637403,5.892648646488937,0.676698041410451,5.0511237533833695,0.0,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,1904.847603293919,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,486.7424239873236,5.968848452757486,0.8076111278219414,5.808916391227173,-29.825690654856384,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,1904.8008811965444,-0.4154014208362034,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,859.0824883002335,7.65343000560202,0.33434928880031106,6.3122103936746266,-36.26420201340432,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666,3415.848933863474,1.850371707708594e-17,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,487.6956330793705,6.381583583238382,0.8818420461426039,6.216089688785883,-44.06420514201476,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,1904.1907740989711,-0.3042903097250923,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,487.7984458627778,6.656296158213148,1.2957723157110836,6.410215774670169,-46.69068877765711,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,1907.7070049007752,-0.19317919861398114,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T18:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,365.2657206200182,4.511908267566168,0.27612455364608873,4.227753002868834,-5.856859140626787,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114,1654.7754375947977,-0.494387749198131,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,349.26071217648513,4.388994227499688,0.2566771975346562,5.076819716087223,0.08548820144400691,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114,1583.7838166790054,-0.2721655269759087,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,364.5754970073403,4.451204675514639,0.2992422461136031,4.343426571950041,-0.11459107948032557,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114,1655.6672181701588,-0.16105441586479755,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,365.0169124622171,4.589963904010589,0.7377695230384628,4.337798718464029,-17.263923068401425,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111,1655.7964360321575,-0.16105441586479755,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,365.3577461603699,4.559061902478357,0.30908668444454673,4.456203941235681,-1.3178910875858176,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111,1655.0981401635545,-0.38327663808701984,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,364.3997195902072,4.582029349167148,0.5282940016248303,4.293632357927171,-14.450076298172664,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111,1656.738635801921,-0.38327663808701984,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,365.3457342619628,4.5244303402689034,0.3643597234838829,4.3639502335998905,-7.231554755492622,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111,1654.7855565467964,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,365.2104600476604,4.591239944504143,0.6768356846640357,3.9220857896245596,0.0,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,1655.4562524916664,-0.11111111111111115,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,365.2496585022874,4.656388272829154,0.8076505861359738,4.50313255126603,-25.777463948199642,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,1655.4775752256694,-0.38327663808701984,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,644.643713442877,5.978079365223166,0.3352301441214201,4.859757458485112,-35.39867701229501,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111,2963.3024747187997,0.1111111111111111,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,366.2250001096964,5.061506543222351,0.8841270994589582,4.936578689778524,-41.51774245483308,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,1655.0111315527136,-0.38327663808701984,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,366.80763268454655,5.392317386005066,1.2974358048355004,5.151525808368858,-44.61573585119935,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,1656.9739087821508,-0.16105441586479755,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T22:12:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.251262494666852,0.8762416407494089,0.15967758336515303,0.6402283027110995,23.460392340249957,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667,137.20582438530562,0.044102178584276105,0.07692307692307693,13,2563,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.423507523147803,0.8804515650470834,0.195735417691954,0.6743676994374395,24.56963675638176,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667,139.9544003000849,0.04285579111072254,0.15384615384615385,13,2550,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.301513777494339,0.8761153052250954,0.13738187767135807,0.718388049489258,23.900718890272568,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667,137.4674030711394,0.04565850279316964,0.23076923076923078,13,2544,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.898873985863617,0.927842787100644,0.24168777557665555,0.6732501398245295,22.097509815559512,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666,157.2613701962964,0.0759126013574216,0.15384615384615385,13,1849,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.63707901228114,0.9756709192574734,0.20047143419294236,0.8207130031977434,18.61069648569041,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666,164.83225447689404,0.05162757644414265,0.15384615384615385,13,1741,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.168992373437522,0.9745872819404285,0.27454866685143725,0.7214318565778515,11.441893971909442,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666,158.23278022336942,0.03553952161707354,0.15384615384615385,13,1836,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.529978915259154,1.0157725289799737,0.2226034743511871,0.7680550592469124,15.968307155930756,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666,152.05961122060182,0.012347312201004636,0.3076923076923077,13,2089,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.121058546741242,1.2346183998644689,0.3652339477538326,0.9630813108427388,0.0,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,142.55074918660628,0.04607990887285044,0.23076923076923078,13,2396,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.867484281769341,1.1423079003475232,0.34076796878209653,0.9184883436566396,3.0607277436418086,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,142.80194651196464,0.07223451889228273,0.15384615384615385,13,2388,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.893275031410973,1.6664936984409384,0.2822053626988819,0.7030785162740483,-19.09922929848316,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666,214.81227397705518,-0.0015109491174027335,0.15384615384615385,13,1863,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,15.792629618236145,1.1454142337608326,0.3483109659944058,0.9026569637029537,1.8463350184486385,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,142.80929016191843,0.04684716597446427,0.15384615384615385,13,2388,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.57460051494875,1.404742858562428,0.31598461598910615,1.1143669947038033,-3.7126543173589477,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,147.6840452664724,0.056090891610090815,0.15384615384615385,13,2388,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.192894892030905,0.8760590723684097,0.15969555803696334,0.639954160225799,23.440363183694128,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114,136.90176067332686,0.04440031464935217,0.07692307692307693,13,2564,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.36418574780021,0.8802932379746629,0.1956399567680536,0.6739460022863609,24.54729814706571,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114,139.6423368364359,0.04312890319640728,0.15384615384615385,13,2551,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.24276192930934,0.8759622092580688,0.13737691256098414,0.7182456588171081,23.878653975149696,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114,137.16117605275468,0.0459462236567646,0.23076923076923078,13,2545,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.80039305874798,0.9272661414864747,0.24139712304232708,0.6726671291577311,22.075467059167412,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111,156.8035783658696,0.07610017545803918,0.15384615384615385,13,1850,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.518020255189608,0.975065215685523,0.20050310511032562,0.8202039127111032,18.58396463251075,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111,164.30275700544513,0.051962360988388016,0.15384615384615385,13,1742,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.06840372580646,0.9740602029611759,0.27427150054128613,0.7209099625951194,11.415866924491773,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111,157.76635601019936,0.035825969903282996,0.15384615384615385,13,1837,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.440327549862847,1.0151384904050962,0.2224896607250494,0.7675380025017117,15.957661232714516,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111,151.64467402723244,0.012476054612594916,0.3076923076923077,13,2090,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.052059446706867,1.2339990398108671,0.36521773995988566,0.9625319620919226,0.0,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,142.21174656182023,0.046018481641980184,0.23076923076923078,13,2392,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.79758725269934,1.1416279420601088,0.34075740896040335,0.9178718330332625,3.064413612933726,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,142.4603819473246,0.07217076828465974,0.15384615384615385,13,2384,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.761630482804637,1.6655116771370355,0.28172419900109186,0.7026755733156799,-19.108118322754315,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111,214.2357269064539,-0.0014857970647181328,0.15384615384615385,13,1864,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,15.724054112079175,1.1450586996719994,0.3479171062283872,0.9027085035160967,1.8325973216706792,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,142.46758794362057,0.04707744461161522,0.15384615384615385,13,2384,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.507198712883078,1.4046445603635656,0.31599942250075047,1.1143300130474911,-3.7367352111914096,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,147.34220189642772,0.05651397496952716,0.15384615384615385,13,2384,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,121.95872935421096,1.8426213697718345,0.15588979638594364,1.6191016010172603,14.056988526619099,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667,458.58399430594767,-0.16351965041060518,0.08333333333333333,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,122.74947192870799,1.8179922802263084,0.1530821181156385,1.9012596277751825,16.262912841239046,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667,467.51965729645764,-0.2209077542099176,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,121.81121162734627,1.8037314716468316,0.13611049455603613,1.678671610962379,16.299594912263746,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667,458.42051110060277,-0.1680571344356213,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,121.92038679178914,1.850751111826462,0.21363137680761995,1.5992106270487207,12.983245000401475,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666,458.5005935651332,-0.09933902480074726,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,122.14387802332074,1.920646901105249,0.1806108487429243,1.7904690513896793,8.254664036696125,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666,458.6423621355516,-0.11956378061613329,0.0,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,121.95495353321263,1.8812890662172184,0.20359357783966572,1.6602403666997894,4.028998496517306,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666,458.7010722746456,-0.05934788303970322,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,122.17465874818248,1.8918199183742288,0.1884198566762115,1.6879040186404666,12.006146657929612,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666,458.63082903602026,-0.1266605776214608,0.0,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,122.5176709237474,2.055935826165029,0.27273290599962235,1.6900009686195563,0.0,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,458.7706500616645,-0.15677591841486757,0.08333333333333333,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,122.34861757493924,2.0153038467687554,0.27940059336791967,1.8215261409347752,-2.618023599441926,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,458.7138470428566,0.014824679109002066,0.08333333333333333,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,164.95155404844425,2.4723361039451803,0.17541976780391996,1.5561201727921408,-26.297105038174184,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666,588.1968567581454,-0.08454177060946201,0.0,12,218,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,122.36124675213684,2.088641506434142,0.26985380998027275,1.8241965348768197,-7.630239640670838,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,458.7178967970582,0.029096322421535745,0.08333333333333333,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,123.43812361694053,2.3482498727555097,0.3821269407189532,2.077864413049213,-12.9031881038432,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,460.0436067835648,0.02795067109924204,0.0,12,217,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T17:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,116.92333649795115,1.7900787122685025,0.1568377240824363,1.568684312507161,14.203962958112802,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114,449.3370676396489,-0.13580782281771664,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,117.68693547147957,1.7703759797264293,0.15525695535634812,1.8422645616869915,15.89836823208094,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114,458.0876409225435,-0.20180811186543798,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,116.78651027348535,1.7560118204355966,0.1364581400813631,1.6308994396214158,15.88702421325494,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114,449.1841452728653,-0.17518090589034327,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,116.88717306917347,1.8021995393493964,0.21515258309440713,1.5532818826982497,12.277727849968613,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111,449.2712903674176,-0.10606369810388423,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,117.114998859106,1.8740554266403355,0.18198495730467537,1.7467663174677546,7.4538843049212415,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111,449.40693922164155,-0.16570400941219723,0.0,12,207,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,116.92377061153275,1.829969002022568,0.20410124214728867,1.610316072959338,3.923197998940132,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111,449.4687847324873,-0.07383450653082792,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,117.14206977819096,1.843986397731032,0.18961795710762352,1.642451001378154,11.3919536067216,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111,449.41011371075433,-0.12498432011857119,0.0,12,207,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,117.47600822760084,2.004107010087987,0.26977679239179053,1.643080500112738,0.0,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,449.54595663025503,-0.16987639214869169,0.0,12,207,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,117.31170413698014,1.970733385662032,0.2788727708546855,1.775850166688448,-3.9229872395489127,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,449.4760641683936,-0.041020566329537406,0.0,12,207,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,158.24234416743982,2.4248829442681132,0.1751166501974503,1.511611589692681,-27.13576730152323,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111,576.511106742922,-0.10128625392997588,0.0,12,208,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,117.32904955719617,2.042881766064257,0.2681069940780392,1.7764380636679222,-8.381980649710306,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,449.46573911563297,-0.009761876136722875,0.08333333333333333,12,207,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,118.61150891257063,2.342317363525494,0.3944610418399658,2.069016098985052,-14.266665573880525,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,450.7107846055762,0.02676254489099099,0.0,12,207,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T22:06:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.253051864318085,0.8776002704451381,0.15979987256387593,0.6410688360631703,23.441626211064683,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667,137.20695154724436,0.04065832898658035,0.15384615384615385,13,2612,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.423787106944067,0.8809158678186597,0.19578471034266706,0.6746438380899125,24.6437344497839,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667,139.95384917479356,0.0406016350104126,0.15384615384615385,13,2598,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.303687350663449,0.8776195515234758,0.13753645934442035,0.7194158080919344,23.876993469339197,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667,137.46963556526245,0.04205811457739682,0.23076923076923078,13,2593,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.898873985863617,0.927842787100644,0.24168777557665555,0.6732501398245295,22.097509815559512,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666,157.2613701962964,0.0759126013574216,0.15384615384615385,13,1849,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.63707901228114,0.9756709192574734,0.20047143419294236,0.8207130031977434,18.61069648569041,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666,164.83225447689404,0.05162757644414265,0.15384615384615385,13,1741,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.168992373437522,0.9745872819404285,0.27454866685143725,0.7214318565778515,11.441893971909442,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666,158.23278022336942,0.03553952161707354,0.15384615384615385,13,1836,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.529978915259154,1.0157725289799737,0.2226034743511871,0.7680550592469124,15.968307155930756,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666,152.05961122060182,0.012347312201004636,0.3076923076923077,13,2089,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.12264637779325,1.235831724976621,0.36536613172612376,0.9641068036239029,0.0,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,142.5510529457599,0.042949136511308855,0.23076923076923078,13,2447,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.871107420684922,1.1439704315119297,0.3409637783708459,0.9199136758347439,3.063436591520924,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,142.8046444984846,0.06769489896804741,0.15384615384615385,13,2438,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.893275031410973,1.6664936984409384,0.2822053626988819,0.7030785162740483,-19.09922929848316,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666,214.81227397705518,-0.0015109491174027335,0.15384615384615385,13,1863,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,ARIMA,15.80240482501883,1.148280278705566,0.34859185973082146,0.9049260448900741,1.815036347763094,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,142.82154215755503,0.04127439117092024,0.15384615384615385,13,2438,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.601553224053,1.4095068570568683,0.3164958482329127,1.118390625379127,-3.739140205972947,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667,147.7143401567772,0.05004850095231554,0.15384615384615385,13,2438,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T17:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.19468426168214,0.8774177020641389,0.15981784723568623,0.6407946935778698,23.421597054508858,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114,136.9028878352656,0.04095646505165643,0.15384615384615385,13,2613,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.364465331596476,0.8807575407462392,0.19568924941876667,0.6742221409388338,24.621395840467848,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114,139.6417857111446,0.04087474709609735,0.15384615384615385,13,2599,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.244935502478448,0.8774664555564493,0.13753149423404643,0.7192734174197845,23.85492855421633,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114,137.16340854687775,0.04234583544099178,0.23076923076923078,13,2594,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.80039305874798,0.9272661414864747,0.24139712304232708,0.6726671291577311,22.075467059167412,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111,156.8035783658696,0.07610017545803918,0.15384615384615385,13,1850,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.518020255189608,0.975065215685523,0.20050310511032562,0.8202039127111032,18.58396463251075,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111,164.30275700544513,0.051962360988388016,0.15384615384615385,13,1742,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.06840372580646,0.9740602029611759,0.27427150054128613,0.7209099625951194,11.415866924491773,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111,157.76635601019936,0.035825969903282996,0.15384615384615385,13,1837,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.440327549862847,1.0151384904050962,0.2224896607250494,0.7675380025017117,15.957661232714516,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111,151.64467402723244,0.012476054612594916,0.3076923076923077,13,2090,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.053647277758873,1.2352123649230191,0.3653499239321768,0.9635574548730866,0.0,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,142.21205032097384,0.0428877092804386,0.23076923076923078,13,2448,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.80121039161492,1.1432904732245155,0.3409532185491528,0.9192971652113668,3.0671224608128416,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,142.46307993384454,0.06763114836042441,0.15384615384615385,13,2439,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,28.761630482804637,1.6655116771370355,0.28172419900109186,0.7026755733156799,-19.108118322754315,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111,214.2357269064539,-0.0014857970647181328,0.15384615384615385,13,1864,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+11,Official,ARIMA,15.733829318861858,1.1479247446167327,0.34819799996480283,0.904977584703217,1.8012986509851348,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,142.47983993925718,0.04150466980807118,0.15384615384615385,13,2439,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.53415142198733,1.4094085588580054,0.31651065474455703,1.1183536437228148,-3.763221099805409,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114,147.37249678673254,0.05047158431175189,0.15384615384615385,13,2439,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692618535475049,11,2607,13,32.09791666666667
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6673619233064629,11,2598,13,32.09791666666667
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6092766276357845,11,2593,13,32.09791666666667
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.579172653350535,11,1849,13,26.754166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5600404244404593,11,1738,13,28.754166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231469929321452,11,1836,13,26.754166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.5101493166000196,11,2087,13,28.754166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38592158966761725,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37931861574912507,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.375300135217906,11,1863,13,26.754166666666666
-11,Official,ARIMA,0.37489760196937677,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
-12,Official,ETS,0.3661522655830636,11,2438,13,32.09791666666667
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6692335284936705,11,2608,13,32.298611111111114
+2,Official,TiRex,0.6673125921558035,11,2599,13,32.298611111111114
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6091232961177663,11,2594,13,32.298611111111114
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5792654683018327,11,1850,13,26.95486111111111
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5598833784587963,11,1739,13,28.95486111111111
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5231303533753233,11,1837,13,26.95486111111111
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5102458739366238,11,2088,13,28.95486111111111
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38620998430175907,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37959762038121875,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+10,Official,Toto-1.0,0.37532648327628915,11,1864,13,26.95486111111111
+11,Official,ARIMA,0.374754081791054,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114
+12,Official,ETS,0.365917339409863,11,2439,13,32.298611111111114

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -832,6 +832,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.647905
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.178276+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4607748899123536,1.2086252065517886,0.004501733568004095,0.30853554126089494,-14.210419698057418,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.804369+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:53.803311+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.4685493004500512,0.6845066109615386,0.004213386891802798,0.28393337063229046,39.24351327573113,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:12.942013+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.463298469296493,2.337369989816865,0.09941960441147114,3.0128163353165034,-28.492453000634683,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.138250+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.482511+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:12.933719+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.919437660981354,1.7086361991311532,0.12678110284871982,1.3605462420149905,-93.77742013720197,True
@@ -3326,6 +3327,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.655884
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.201056+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3532916477549211,0.5943834181359042,0.006070927887580472,0.3632185058748774,51.28886708927894,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.810518+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:53.852363+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1489952044258809,0.38599896946220064,0.0038800825686229217,0.32567123470080755,75.63109151106873,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:12.966918+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.076688428663051,2.253150778057929,0.07430929788919967,1.710286926999298,-25.08660464422112,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.142058+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.625548+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:12.940608+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.30778462286252356,0.5547834017547061,0.04727260788855861,0.43291067659420573,-53.30454365086223,True
@@ -5638,6 +5640,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.664673
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.232203+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.12066358804155342,0.347366647854329,0.003353112937251135,0.32570717324795845,80.18546522098002,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.816179+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:53.882606+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.12190927583394849,0.34915508851218036,0.003510598366233296,0.34014063188502985,79.60947612227294,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.014805+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.5690129082390865,2.137524949150088,0.07001007111390248,1.8710435730709425,-20.08861712666686,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.147583+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.644412+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:12.946552+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.16022513292188426,0.40028131722812677,0.03164834051398726,0.3177566559790563,-26.17438518683641,True
@@ -7718,6 +7721,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.673898
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.271117+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0955744206796336,1.046696909654191,0.011102059886708175,0.8182685967177648,0.07716269422250835,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.822718+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:53.939148+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8381912784916912,0.915527868768445,0.00974710411213441,0.7329825896002462,12.32429969084703,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.074539+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.023855660273981,2.6502557726140283,0.08549485016070735,2.5922489560163284,-39.58038038496792,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.152584+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.702913+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:12.953918+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,23.32702740544245,4.829806145741509,0.3842669595309199,4.1292665363230965,-99.19943753507992,True
@@ -9915,6 +9919,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.681946
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.291037+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.11384942280056737,0.33741580105348856,0.0032850991232620482,0.3336281114622559,81.19925220492031,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.832105+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:53.973671+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.16439559427184403,0.4054572656542783,0.003971430225161274,0.29976093839423573,73.44669470009443,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.114582+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.898341674431117,1.9744218582742434,0.06430451206600145,1.6120510590081123,-12.364688014066846,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.157007+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.750644+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:12.959540+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.364928792346503,0.6040933639318536,0.04838864916118154,0.45870703674722435,-59.12207673662225,True
@@ -12005,6 +12010,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.689560
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.310153+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0778064060355865,1.0381745547043553,0.0114207834966872,0.8387978363120533,0.8946858710959114,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.836938+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:53.996603+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0037273594351925,1.0018619462955924,0.011067693661256655,0.8305955761530011,3.3745211282654726,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.154084+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.3266866437250706,1.525348040194457,0.048429203539823,1.4704203232774926,13.297792231443266,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.161233+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.816389+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:12.965824+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.9271027101476536,0.9628617295061911,0.07876379271931942,0.7742970812008138,-81.63318453694701,True
@@ -14445,6 +14451,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.697759
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.331132+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0972664757953667,1.0475048810365357,0.011590407003586484,0.6706979864824958,0.0,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.841932+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:54.016605+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0738351451037815,1.0362601724971299,0.011102561409983058,0.6646941008187803,0.0,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.191146+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.0403892442060383,1.743671197274887,0.05039438245479031,1.3904589938797214,0.0,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.165364+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.896122+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:12.974137+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.093748972336685,0.30618453967613224,0.020567485438120446,0.19182145844364729,0.0,True
@@ -16750,6 +16757,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.705633
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.356128+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.3685351967947359,0.6070709981499165,0.0069573303229987235,0.4884799037939565,49.71554423955235,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.846729+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.004725685441374e-16,2.001181072627206e-08,,2.000026373035387e-08,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:54.040658+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.42169800504005606,0.6493827877608522,0.007382310016761299,0.5396347333427925,43.6056626361645,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.241618+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.9979168536598664,1.9994791455926382,0.06926394075220237,1.888078307119778,-13.604517850454977,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.169957+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.4282955910026575e-16,2.1043515844560426e-08,,1.9771655044051625e-08,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:50.931454+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.2965545851485274e-16,2.0728132055611106e-08,,2.0394646692444158e-08,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.029254+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.772969946390862,0.8791870940766032,0.06800165641537227,0.7081496934170763,-78.36692604464655,True
@@ -18712,6 +18720,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.727738
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.372104+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.532038634492795,1.2377554825137294,0.013155605505606687,1.0763399943801908,-16.535629775191016,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.857153+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:54.082706+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.3770494138842198,1.5417682750284556,0.017054160534604613,1.4185586119414137,-37.764644006596846,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.277970+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.419174015481595,2.3279119432404642,0.07682027705467648,2.3253402712928946,-28.11947494513319,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.179065+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:51.124256+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.045525+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.1554985909293066,0.3943330964163503,0.03067915863642536,0.341048024039361,-24.774412148103426,True
@@ -20772,6 +20781,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.748679
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.419101+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6665307202015461,0.8164133268152511,0.008673025462272832,0.4415912999216033,24.42093436657071,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.867995+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:54.151682+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5287202960806071,0.7271315534898806,0.007437043596404917,0.4156716087536839,34.015350421842534,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.353516+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.351521304236548,2.313335536457379,0.07634472120812692,1.6937341387248428,-27.539998748668996,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.187229+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:51.219925+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.057698+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.35825025935350996,0.5985401067209364,0.048707290686209125,0.45909817344561954,-58.51808332234443,True
@@ -23370,6 +23380,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.739417
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.391264+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.8556479445038004,0.9250124023513416,0.008422407271008193,0.7781270361690861,12.37220273352033,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.863506+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:54.103542+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.6032766497388201,0.7767088577702845,0.006886766303185767,0.6495353052691235,28.05767014530619,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.315589+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.54219699972541,2.3541871207967753,0.08228977408365698,2.1827408275623315,-29.1498120078705,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.182980+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:51.184415+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.051589+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7017604971369219,0.8377114641312496,0.08374471475984606,0.670940086334975,-76.43045722668286,True
@@ -25674,6 +25685,7 @@ future-20cbd464d63914ad37b9,2026-07-21T07:18:00+00:00,2026-07-21T07:29:28.757790
 future-21306e9d61395d086657,2026-07-24T02:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T02:08:12.464230+00:00,2026-07-23T02:37:16.204507+00:00,prequential-v1,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.7774908510515073,0.8817544165194225,0.009773128940513921,0.5067468665265273,17.05690758823091,True
 future-218114827bbec336664a,2026-07-17T03:10:00+00:00,2026-07-19T11:47:53.873684+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.901663+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.18414791949994158,0.4291245967081607,,0.0002738122741262756,-100.0,False
 future-2305d38e0f5fdecc82df,2026-07-24T06:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T06:20:54.180520+00:00,2026-07-23T06:04:09.994785+00:00,prequential-v1,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.591797497166714,0.7692837559488137,0.00841433472347687,0.4571201180553868,28.94021380848908,True
+future-236537fa97e376a986fb,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T22:50:13.390983+00:00,2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.236198141488906,2.0582026483048033,0.06843427359882005,1.8989285392423076,-16.433649922678182,True
 future-23e21dc792e2b2b937f6,2026-07-18T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-19T20:53:54.191951+00:00,2026-07-19T19:21:44.005142+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.08508821848320845,0.2916988489576338,,0.00026633646662217123,-100.0,False
 future-2424401f44d8369900e6,2026-07-25T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T23:04:51.249273+00:00,2026-07-26T17:58:33.548935+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.2170407683570017,0.4658763444917564,,0.00026731224210784096,-100.0,False
 future-24e21bc17fd4e52a4421,2026-07-17T15:00:00+00:00,2026-07-17T16:43:13.063721+00:00,2026-07-16T15:21:09.716597+00:00,prequential-v1,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.15356652006288854,0.39187564362038185,0.02815030390103997,0.27775434992312487,-24.18673700778912,True

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ ARIMA,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.224989505012516
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.6887482829826201,0.9540036885514395,0.4566297955053868,0.7461177956329675,3.1470638726462545,3.8237247820144815,-0.28120112605567715,9.057596938929015e-07,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.708181502318978,1.213018038814413,0.09454401566012902,0.9460806159180886,-42.96354915049305,1.4475482001763167,-0.015686274509803918,0.7864614601106631,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0942820213863107,1.015807694846594,0.5454330592949076,0.6352260256314877,25.681589249539,0.5384460351935494,0.35806783144912646,3.461823119687569e-10,140,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,181.0851697373034,3.247892791318787,0.9529137173738746,2.8808228738570807,6.6897884477192,1756.582168434628,0.2255363683935113,2.6749167460889147e-06,196,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.19368815726278,3.2432708481639545,0.9485812599476695,2.88149289142794,6.5111983896057275,1752.140039596756,0.22852999067647362,1.8517457722192272e-06,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6117911614426588,1.0695205059362567,0.0100853202752571,0.7741205692557181,28.297622329135265,1.9032512469123888,0.07619756763464879,0.08004919532870981,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.5811863431219901,1.070465590173461,0.008323636090464196,0.7421514556711728,36.369387975458395,2.0049073075588306,-0.056818181818181816,0.6556644947844955,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ Chronos-2,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.77066292070
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.02785586891715,0.7645296886497267,0.3442084958075155,0.518033025872195,21.88638146494005,2.3488829237605158,-0.3387083770055632,2.6801824527934785e-10,158,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.39843412073121276,0.5816743522030585,0.04287278911219057,0.40038261423061633,14.55878920129333,0.31809506761334416,-0.1063576945929887,0.050284842841598065,154,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.042853586857858,0.9910240720175268,0.5354995138301277,0.6365141486693601,28.050192432352233,0.5287165647252547,0.3791895549717379,1.303319405073995e-12,159,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,166.69658012761138,2.7586826250449428,0.03219464183762014,2.4693874687965955,25.166549154341705,1689.4273325259355,0.20987212733613522,5.464215533378547e-06,212,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,165.93780129334408,2.7563092360919526,0.03239236322753366,2.4658236164876883,24.90617011911599,1685.4745042702116,0.21374789618212425,3.464468529119017e-06,213,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3584243203182118,0.988483236863085,0.009942212435786146,0.7224566765181408,22.070587855613862,1.5938837288700864,0.21714285714285714,1.881443456264298e-05,176,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.4539380254510008,1.0171651602630492,0.00866256496836003,0.694295550748422,34.41538763559448,1.694495727681373,0.021645021645021644,0.9112884689584274,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -36,7 +36,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.76884396
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5283024504079121,0.6226304952000458,0.38224721858727956,0.4164590636262569,13.009778530945106,0.5824227287220827,-0.45487305487305485,1.4744406235679493e-12,111,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4021177413853758,0.5567117199001299,0.04181130974342789,0.4084427067806432,23.163627349829277,0.4328809775144108,-0.20867389491242697,0.001231790341516876,110,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.2291072908674983,1.0854493607203002,0.5707363713258984,0.6956696422198485,28.00376263826608,0.5158586191166523,0.18790218790218788,0.0033149873762053595,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,213.79339998084583,3.2338492259955705,0.5578227769799639,2.9565830571536376,29.64907048849888,1947.5326357558888,0.24926359366292494,3.11217621724213e-06,159,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,212.48574756164203,3.2269971992652864,0.554773947568301,2.949798435378121,29.310718872069184,1941.4691209846785,0.2529874213836478,2.053120842214106e-06,160,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9062516623742625,1.1438753096316576,0.010268748918062547,0.8908433451688154,25.155142045278517,2.4520911506313183,0.09442820444680665,0.04033071077808843,213,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6772698673479125,1.1374607267848178,0.00888958251994685,0.8481888404956763,28.643717831168455,1.8085885112023488,-0.08064516129032259,0.5301288877477086,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -49,7 +49,7 @@ ETS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,1.972878454121812,0
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,3.873994336063469,1.0831333111558656,0.5164406254559749,0.8553311523656505,0.13992619226360067,27.30330920863052,-0.2344906683348973,4.216250622389566e-05,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 ETS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,17.45568497649454,3.4795570720867355,0.27957054899169465,2.8758967550564543,-79.50890754411088,29.532172381799775,-0.05860566448801742,0.3114692067466157,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 ETS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0648671158583614,0.9960504358443464,0.531880170617662,0.6369026179229422,27.876182135802356,0.5979416116903242,0.39712230215827343,3.375626251359704e-12,140,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.63987075046498,2.9019974599015104,0.053409139427512194,2.6869589778322425,22.09078871996655,1756.7057477863939,0.14191522762951336,0.003138579115791661,196,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,178.76364732361125,2.900719583316295,0.05357201105559947,2.686478216300182,21.777737100144545,1752.261783975813,0.14741531130218583,0.0020961241978113437,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3232765046928578,0.9429012137153884,0.008985526216856703,0.6909521591212189,31.450343129388866,1.6483081134835997,0.30585516178736516,1.5042570947855893e-09,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7617173231646346,1.1324285203842483,0.009484338375650726,0.7276927535003623,29.188919734540207,1.7734024748178494,-0.05627705627705628,0.7380940484479567,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -62,7 +62,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.6702253387
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.47965564978060443,0.5956660891730714,0.34848366280670223,0.4013809873615249,15.145933289401857,0.5589006360416241,-0.33848133848133843,1.2200657712154157e-07,112,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4634963953001367,0.6057082262287827,0.0457034865384179,0.44773524192345965,13.348458130041319,0.46607801147843353,-0.15184275184275184,0.018159226394582992,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1334394319943253,1.038366565465544,0.509240182334573,0.673833132688211,32.2783831863663,0.5276398337201762,0.22123893805309736,0.00048365880179213446,114,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,211.29917417997217,3.1888375217150005,0.582247328239358,2.839871523285704,29.759019451232945,1935.4579625815124,0.29316770186335406,3.3943259382195005e-08,161,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,210.0189221274689,3.1813411287307973,0.5790501503617447,2.832292384617324,29.472463618135667,1929.5066687859642,0.2956061651713826,2.3597485427031695e-08,162,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.58996163721899,1.3525809286874553,0.012714891921704255,1.1294004024235538,13.346509924484181,2.916466841762542,-0.010452653025068653,0.8204538033826462,213,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.269265685407324,1.5349643437810503,0.012371122286664232,1.296030600804856,16.041236998369264,3.389151169692855,-0.07661290322580645,0.5514777322263826,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -75,7 +75,7 @@ Moving-Average,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.891444
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.5017748959195862,0.9857132449331892,0.46385084507789925,0.7665371738183044,-1.8741387168037815,2.526677990525922,-0.3404233135230945,2.758241029305279e-09,139,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.8972300393378154,0.905663955821756,0.0656862672956634,0.6428948918829159,-27.54572570625701,0.5286612108990583,0.13398692810457516,0.020667200031528266,136,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0926164068376316,1.0119983326306254,0.5713765326829954,0.6489841223038203,26.299383411206133,0.5762084379282724,0.37142857142857144,7.477998927347418e-11,140,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,181.33297809200332,3.2667212142622253,0.07131233714884451,3.049304029745967,3.858280974842567,1756.562434580781,0.28571428571428575,2.73321602650499e-09,196,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.4243167140933,3.257881756525841,0.07119617911022004,3.041289391642066,3.9061972756374943,1752.1220952404603,0.28488552781518695,2.7646871968739846e-09,197,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.0875686328022915,1.5113130029658803,0.013694684671326944,1.0259475715085344,0.0,3.1938439251829718,-0.01621047036938613,0.7248514480489768,213,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.8803486777886427,1.7234750348172114,0.013600798681791645,1.164368059063642,0.0,3.667874600129973,-0.14919354838709678,0.23861491183733988,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.907553
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.7655677457950825,1.0513798956631837,0.46749250026515726,0.8685246031221482,0.0,2.6608704543301562,-0.3697841726618705,9.056358287895971e-11,140,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.5257595275603967,0.6783968025240044,0.04968687612655689,0.4852245456137986,0.0,0.38004844223522966,-0.11120652640618289,0.053878796658499574,137,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.918971559566048,1.332990629518431,0.6509919350093941,1.04700718291182,0.0,1.0989020122273105,0.5353596757852076,4.5731372169242245e-21,141,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.64407273269185,3.3379039752457658,0.08569495767129313,2.8044826784808277,0.0,1752.0997924931132,0.2870198437304324,2.2539716099708966e-09,197,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.74708443224495,3.3298522945489433,0.08551667193787647,2.7973411447202157,0.0,1747.6927583708946,0.28622128972911903,2.2698863705780893e-09,198,1.0,2026-06-30T04:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.336994401217593,1.369755220053674,0.014086341211751853,1.0807232549657544,3.064994291773444,2.0818723983489034,-0.16075205640423032,0.0011583516212729406,185,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.195593023269829,1.2510649627495094,0.010353811211048837,0.9577149267740791,30.624585259542382,2.167796226333411,-0.18153846153846157,0.20324965345831253,26,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -101,7 +101,7 @@ Sundial,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.8814562785987
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.0630461559506057,0.7620902896007227,0.37385369039603655,0.5309431911283826,17.80461534628412,2.4594593887470606,-0.38192656821568893,4.426442662450618e-10,122,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4935316464495441,0.6450704870347259,0.04821520329257284,0.47379551436301814,7.588113899777261,0.4018592296435696,-0.07762427004700186,0.2106635657057584,119,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.255492244447649,1.0979824296912708,0.585980722157873,0.7404488604721113,22.39860385942794,0.5138348088490263,0.2100708103855232,0.0005401912643810933,124,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,205.6238376299374,3.4254319004921907,0.285851271292272,3.050938927076158,10.338163462868991,1874.4913484084846,0.28546171630626954,2.7118504945427924e-08,172,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,204.45836987978544,3.417189399018783,0.2845993214047572,3.044217189388549,10.199766461057873,1869.0971648946827,0.28713536765694314,2.0439335477667005e-08,173,1.0,2026-07-02T03:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2897977163308854,0.9634070131740257,0.009453686521010893,0.8285803803384979,23.76185492880625,1.5247855829526096,0.30085999312005507,5.171577126565932e-09,171,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6897087292640207,1.09329092186638,0.009593598242124572,0.9474734246730254,30.125180199747636,1.9526605060946605,-0.03896103896103896,0.8236433617484156,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -114,7 +114,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,3.06693070269
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.5207593688768749,0.6059324744797115,0.33946578899065166,0.4981886145297968,11.250230807649105,0.7087378179560665,-0.3686662783925451,4.0035572769852415e-08,102,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4424570805013235,0.609237468913479,0.04596361064961649,0.5016786492264811,8.317577513717845,0.42162408715493516,-0.23287128712871294,0.0005592909204218427,101,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.1590832505019304,1.0543538263627152,0.5484316971287074,0.8565975060733048,29.473489067051894,0.49574421716368006,0.1182181610508281,0.07679867794610927,103,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,232.94045881739333,3.4854114692376497,0.02560840364599795,3.298212191262588,22.965096481204505,2031.871423296124,0.2691544638639584,1.432151050128205e-06,146,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,231.39269497520343,3.477537322802294,0.025956783737213458,3.291594014936264,22.617582389868872,2024.9879561672885,0.27350666293914827,8.852561820264672e-07,147,1.0,2026-07-02T08:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6024420656404206,1.071766136199834,0.009922092182442147,0.7756962587154468,29.91063601582313,1.7892061365665708,0.05070442680397625,0.24511763187869207,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8183701071507006,1.1566950827938647,0.009098519179104744,0.7859114801504872,36.06338252137382,2.012663949949189,-0.12096774193548389,0.34153305448057775,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -127,7 +127,7 @@ TiRex,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.468994721394927
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,0.9553859737915604,0.7349143048700336,0.32749906333795475,0.5072903190827633,23.278273669160622,2.176305088417372,-0.2878411910669975,9.66939736663388e-08,156,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.40039407274824257,0.5757323686572832,0.04262929269168316,0.4119597574001226,16.841760024091734,0.36109293968121936,-0.07408388520971303,0.1770547176696976,151,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0654063713403248,1.003459779166658,0.5436698809743161,0.6456859226787635,27.09054499858563,0.5183879353621482,0.38314551690347864,1.065644016280355e-12,157,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,168.84233416219308,2.7496849480482735,0.29895959574381636,2.8559314870974584,28.5075720253022,1725.3861820956129,0.2539832994809298,4.0551536726318916e-08,211,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,168.0711510826744,2.747626696106807,0.29790952558091216,2.8504494241334366,28.217170104193542,1721.329357068176,0.25753375659483146,2.4253889538801623e-08,212,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6415734687925971,1.0793235991283914,0.010593342108474227,0.8861496866583475,27.881784803619308,1.89999029967701,0.06512802019473493,0.13629766785971706,236,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9235807995648218,1.1939238211789782,0.009107697376501547,0.9818204856365835,32.13359881394004,2.2268271082902564,-0.09469696969696971,0.45073160411871227,33,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -140,7 +140,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.473458750
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.0055797219013838,0.7517175499760977,0.3192245281916464,0.5773783063411879,19.355009320160686,2.3567786455997046,-0.31043150397989105,9.896939322329878e-09,155,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4559332200357897,0.612331512201544,0.054318587455278095,0.46862019483793116,11.72485945910723,0.4242874966561998,-0.046004415011037525,0.4018934291528179,151,1.0,2026-06-29T11:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,1.0493079870477915,0.9931192448077559,0.4696643698394044,0.7851297887529494,28.397745836898984,0.5385172988133257,0.37105045492142263,6.223096595701873e-12,156,1.0,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,167.46229059757786,2.7761196059219393,0.09386841147568067,2.575169520007869,26.21106003541061,1693.3962723769655,0.25280974949221396,4.6796175033788194e-08,211,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,166.69851657117286,2.7741293583505944,0.09381379526156737,2.573318441269919,25.9242161388133,1689.4153211379646,0.25655012071894845,2.7407702503886762e-08,212,1.0,2026-06-30T05:40:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.269724042997417,1.2932646570136275,0.009829127666112472,0.7493222343920141,-0.29848063666583374,2.8668257073572234,0.1915134015441592,0.00014113314543141658,179,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.175086269910645,1.521645487561495,0.010709564244259217,0.8709867168219557,0.5322464158750319,3.5235205419444062,-0.012987012987012986,0.9555771436337516,22,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-26T08:00:00+00:00
@@ -153,5 +153,5 @@ Toto-1.0,nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,8.456804836314
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Air Quality,1h,24,1.8393055244351615,1.1402356119049042,0.3920846653690491,0.4222532284837786,-31.208435602748082,3.1096309153263073,-0.42604298356510745,2.237398035686739e-11,113,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T05:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.4651649471910055,0.5977159029216539,0.039658822284072026,0.3819123581356033,13.941038759334198,0.6384989130895222,-0.16855036855036856,0.008734084692102254,111,1.0,2026-07-03T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Hazards,1h,24,2.40765026996175,1.4459217262784392,0.5356533286608569,0.7185890600968053,3.792466917429815,2.248242343383199,0.1697151424287856,0.0069123572941991295,116,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,284.9023757702058,4.15187206822568,0.9364535844121403,2.7580029264836727,0.5532754595002369,2471.381276131535,0.1756418995682799,0.0008749983537144632,163,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T15:55:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,283.19099663832344,4.139105791274943,0.9311607837364494,2.752764668024884,0.4377181439752126,2463.886164213718,0.17596887625317972,0.0008242067098647464,164,1.0,2026-07-04T03:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.493430638855567,1.1822810283926517,0.2168787045319125,0.7022572165896811,34.8197182017094,0.749996768684687,0.1515151515151515,0.5452047007776174,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:14.772746+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:45.969129+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -35,18 +35,18 @@ Hazards,TimesFM-2.5,0.7247978632328378,0.8249918557759415,9,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Sundial,1.0169587977425802,0.9183235752037384,10,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,TabPFN-TS,0.7939141618582515,0.9372016432334698,11,1,1,1.0
 Hazards,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ARIMA,0.98768084465167,0.7185428132115601,1,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,0.8805993265796609,0.7820506975971084,2,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.0248294758525023,0.8441376291383019,3,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TiRex,0.9461414318362696,0.8744103967350619,4,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Toto-1.0,0.8840423627321868,0.9071486156874613,5,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,0.9716828794197937,0.9123949068038776,6,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,ETS,0.869808714455993,1.0151238615070848,8,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,0.9366148818966098,1.032749682119011,9,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Sundial,1.0356175999926303,1.0748245873668087,10,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.0202699261816985,1.090148011890409,11,1,1,1.0
-Hydrology,Moving-Average,1.0031583119641017,1.0903962671495224,12,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moving-Average,0.7652594641159696,1.057507146740559,2,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Moirai-2.0,1.282185062935625,1.1593661273750293,3,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TiRex,1.7601434797977764,1.2181115345220714,4,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-2,1.669749502744596,1.230016084276731,5,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Chronos-Bolt,1.502772356186331,1.345630170545535,6,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Sundial,1.3149358626625043,1.3578813294245928,7,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,Toto-1.0,1.3933078304239097,1.3656846750610254,8,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TimesFM-2.5,1.822857718065862,1.5697987766413375,9,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,TabPFN-TS,1.7823948120487276,1.6723544394535688,10,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ETS,2.3101830377998778,1.8643116894683234,11,1,1,1.0
+Hydrology,ARIMA,1.7969075767873166,2.166778271475671,12,1,1,1.0
 Ocean,Sundial,0.3635939023512989,0.4942209527537893,1,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,Chronos-2,0.18728171452482495,0.41919182845949815,2,2,2,1.0
 Ocean,TimesFM-2.5,0.4917522673268715,0.5984138105629219,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -11,18 +11,18 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 10min,Moirai-2.0,0.770942001251268,0.8004585833278894,10,1,1,1.0
 10min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,11,1,1,1.0
 10min,TabPFN-TS,1.3847975089964943,1.244085275075577,12,1,1,1.0
-15min,ARIMA,0.98768084465167,0.7185428132115601,1,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-Bolt,0.8805993265796609,0.7820506975971084,2,1,1,1.0
-15min,Chronos-2,1.0248294758525023,0.8441376291383019,3,1,1,1.0
-15min,TiRex,0.9461414318362696,0.8744103967350619,4,1,1,1.0
-15min,Toto-1.0,0.8840423627321868,0.9071486156874613,5,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moirai-2.0,0.9716828794197937,0.9123949068038776,6,1,1,1.0
-15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,1,1,1.0
-15min,ETS,0.869808714455993,1.0151238615070848,8,1,1,1.0
-15min,TimesFM-2.5,0.9366148818966098,1.032749682119011,9,1,1,1.0
-15min,Sundial,1.0356175999926303,1.0748245873668087,10,1,1,1.0
-15min,TabPFN-TS,1.0202699261816985,1.090148011890409,11,1,1,1.0
-15min,Moving-Average,1.0031583119641017,1.0903962671495224,12,1,1,1.0
+15min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moving-Average,0.7652594641159696,1.057507146740559,2,1,1,1.0
+15min,Moirai-2.0,1.282185062935625,1.1593661273750293,3,1,1,1.0
+15min,TiRex,1.7601434797977764,1.2181115345220714,4,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-2,1.669749502744596,1.230016084276731,5,1,1,1.0
+15min,Chronos-Bolt,1.502772356186331,1.345630170545535,6,1,1,1.0
+15min,Sundial,1.3149358626625043,1.3578813294245928,7,1,1,1.0
+15min,Toto-1.0,1.3933078304239097,1.3656846750610254,8,1,1,1.0
+15min,TimesFM-2.5,1.822857718065862,1.5697987766413375,9,1,1,1.0
+15min,TabPFN-TS,1.7823948120487276,1.6723544394535688,10,1,1,1.0
+15min,ETS,2.3101830377998778,1.8643116894683234,11,1,1,1.0
+15min,ARIMA,1.7969075767873166,2.166778271475671,12,1,1,1.0
 1D,ARIMA,0.35081770342317864,0.47944164778388026,1,1,1,1.0
 1D,Moirai-2.0,0.40785680526551005,0.5118677129116019,2,1,1,1.0
 1D,Sundial,0.303769640015456,0.5282879649026628,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -23,18 +23,18 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 12,ETS,0.8706436180201554,439.02846065451104,10,2,2,1.0
 12,Toto-1.0,5639.479792962678,13322.450572675643,11,2,2,1.0
 12,Moving-Average,0.9617678019724286,471.56119324419365,12,2,2,1.0
-24,TiRex,0.7766487898886408,0.8850822244596781,1,8,8,1.0
-24,Toto-1.0,3.043406011560125,0.8004448544309083,2,8,8,1.0
-24,Chronos-2,1.026556333181557,0.9097547960690651,3,8,8,1.0
-24,Moirai-2.0,1.0622131736218983,0.9610715288672435,4,8,8,1.0
-24,Sundial,0.8716555544478405,0.8512408962457235,5,8,8,1.0
-24,Chronos-Bolt,0.9929137157107533,0.9066319663759246,6,8,8,1.0
-24,TabPFN-TS,0.671761670733202,0.8865511426525661,7,8,8,1.0
-24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,8,8,8,1.0
-24,TimesFM-2.5,0.8181858831073042,0.9505178903305637,9,8,8,1.0
-24,ARIMA,3.671439133793314,2.1700706062034434,10,8,8,1.0
-24,Moving-Average,1.9067083719082392,1.4182794505453074,11,8,8,1.0
-24,ETS,10.78493518800225,3.5817694448928936,12,8,8,1.0
+24,TiRex,0.8393124614051559,0.9225291259963043,1,8,8,1.0
+24,Toto-1.0,3.221488937183407,0.8424427873415189,2,8,8,1.0
+24,Moirai-2.0,1.0996765234197958,0.9902855253418892,3,8,8,1.0
+24,Sundial,0.8980655672492216,0.8764820136482802,4,8,8,1.0
+24,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,5,8,8,1.0
+24,Chronos-2,1.0911457137592777,0.9535896859297124,6,8,8,1.0
+24,TabPFN-TS,0.720279945947272,0.9352638568793102,7,8,8,1.0
+24,Chronos-Bolt,1.0615143413310242,0.9702694973156628,8,8,8,1.0
+24,Moving-Average,1.8432709456477536,1.4128601626265243,9,8,8,1.0
+24,TimesFM-2.5,0.8892030560495744,1.001593298231221,10,8,8,1.0
+24,ARIMA,3.956625734199481,2.491116808977914,11,8,8,1.0
+24,ETS,12.185556539425363,3.8645378308931644,12,8,8,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
 36,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
 36,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,0.6728861958390346,2.429700603501735,1,14,14,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,0.7348441693564534,2.3204983098782948,2,14,14,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,0.7193456701679593,3.439276037031046,3,14,14,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.7302907019022906,0.8592771618232337,4,14,14,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,46.73032172811493,12.779420214585265,5,14,14,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.0145602405121907,5.762261726879482,6,14,14,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.9463331067805231,5.656573157315628,7,14,14,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.7884252450457847,0.9263440461663692,8,14,14,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,14,14,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,2.112703319506486,8.873459032435614,10,14,14,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,1.2901205236992181,6.638662536860597,11,14,14,1.0
-Overall,ETS,4.103963743984653,12.19243328657617,12,14,14,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,0.703393241439027,2.487920264306921,1,14,14,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,0.7317203685052369,3.4971862653133186,2,14,14,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,0.7609184058549149,2.383744211554301,3,14,14,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,0.7658651758591832,0.8853652606290402,4,14,14,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,1.034855488960128,5.861708922220037,5,14,14,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,48.273768089052126,13.15836737780422,6,14,14,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,7,14,14,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,0.8204778598140972,0.9550955125482756,8,14,14,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,0.983158788785599,5.880150827877197,9,14,14,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,1.2654153157880021,6.624155488526724,10,14,14,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,2.2049738892736177,9.601367184262196,11,14,14,1.0
+Overall,ETS,4.400531481318116,12.73349124682922,12,14,14,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ARIMA,0.33228586127163234,0.221044549
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ARIMA,0.18230749922286849,0.183752748404339,nan,nan,0.7388780687520423,nan,nan,0.42697482270371456,nan,nan,0.3354118428799675,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ARIMA,2.7311828083012557,2.6264865820946706,nan,nan,0.1724078621252385,nan,nan,1.6526290594992137,nan,nan,1.40979110551692,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ARIMA,0.6266602589381393,0.660893910468025,nan,nan,0.3980590192837615,nan,nan,0.7916187585815152,nan,nan,0.4602942888548813,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,209.07566606042687,110.41926395508922,nan,nan,0.06879159522499588,nan,nan,14.459449023404275,nan,nan,9.289625581590649,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ARIMA,5.463298469296493,9.066976072956653,nan,nan,0.09941960441147114,nan,nan,2.337369989816865,nan,nan,3.0128163353165034,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ARIMA,0.41946174479404164,0.3887520067886783,nan,nan,0.12900699451842257,nan,nan,0.6476586637991046,nan,nan,0.4079750467727446,Web,1,7

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:12.069851+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.644953+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.156609+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:12.942013+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -1,3 +1,15 @@
-dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-2,253427.98031171164,253427.98031171164,430.1599934895833,0.9318014749305178,0.007149086996462027,0.007183290602900378,3.2641156533937963,503.4163091435474,0.008389478022961463,0.007168654940634957,0.006453564120717358,Finance,1
-coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-2,151474.27375920615,151474.27375920615,331.1985677083333,0.6128762551879093,0.00555338622541073,0.005536958612993723,3.7665332417731356,389.19696011043834,0.006507699932794779,0.005537918117874429,0.004363665891866698,Finance,1
+dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.17505582868640848,0.17505582868640848,nan,nan,0.003231618795337522,nan,nan,0.41839673598919064,nan,nan,0.2881331988179761,Finance,1,24
+coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.46766119047554405,0.46766119047554405,nan,nan,0.007905167973149461,nan,nan,0.6838575805498862,nan,nan,0.46522569178545187,Finance,1,24
+data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-2,25067.461899718543,25067.461899718543,121.96686029434204,1.2859549577545721,0.6608019070822674,0.9393767274480805,18.969076544647905,158.32707254199624,0.9747204171363386,0.7508734105557137,0.605299940786381,Finance,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-2,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.6284716271939715e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.2761158361191085e-09,nan,nan,1.8284365387902989e-09,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Chronos-2,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.7296862743653321e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.3151753777977035e-09,nan,nan,2.356162747109682e-09,Transportation,1,12
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.06025211913342343,0.06025211913342343,nan,nan,0.014048149370033328,nan,nan,0.24546307081396873,nan,nan,0.16759977605525547,Weather,1,24
+noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Chronos-2,0.02512819122154435,0.02512819122154435,nan,nan,1.8264610699966606,nan,nan,0.15851874091584361,nan,nan,0.14852267001119226,Ocean,1,60
+noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-2,1.6657052582798209,1.6657052582798209,nan,nan,0.11908254245050692,nan,nan,1.2906220431558655,nan,nan,0.8988337976886078,Ocean,1,72
+nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763978935275495,0.4551292260487874,0.3293397414624391,0.02734639793034648,0.02740698654518156,1.2449814398684094,0.4771161172636646,0.02853423165374086,0.027219291695583462,0.02293888289302154,Weather,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.03526190188175566,0.03526190188175566,nan,nan,0.2142754133607554,nan,nan,0.1877815269981466,nan,nan,0.1128105078936095,Air Quality,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.16410673128769995,0.16410673128769995,nan,nan,0.03774184875099514,nan,nan,0.4051008902578467,nan,nan,0.20244880321228498,Weather,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.6326804740446184,0.6326804740446184,nan,nan,0.4433038595658039,nan,nan,0.7954121409964889,nan,nan,0.49632226407417623,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,5.076688428663051,5.076688428663051,nan,nan,0.07430929788919967,nan,nan,2.253150778057929,nan,nan,1.710286926999298,Hydrology,1,24
+wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,0.5379146607901764,0.5379146607901764,nan,nan,0.17100514688638668,nan,nan,0.7334266567218404,nan,nan,0.48842848142456025,Web,1,7

results/chronos_2/config.json

@@ -3,9 +3,12 @@
     "model_type": "zero-shot",
     "model_dtype": "float32",
     "model_link": "https://tsfm.ai/models/amazon/chronos-2",
-    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TSFM_Bench/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
+    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TS-Live/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
     "org": "Amazon / TSFM.ai",
     "testdata_leakage": "No",
     "replication_code_available": "Yes",
-    "api_model_id": "amazon/chronos-2"
+    "api_model_id": "amazon/chronos-2",
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
 }

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 {
     "model": "Chronos-2",
     "api_model_id": "amazon/chronos-2",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-06-30T10:59:48.162083+00:00",
-    "datasets": [
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.510099+00:00",
+    "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260628t230000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T10:58:37.207440Z",
-            "context_length": 48,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260629t100204z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T10:58:37.207440Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:12.966918+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]
 }

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.3455539255669464,0.345
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.0315256687512563,0.0315256687512563,nan,nan,0.22687084756933662,nan,nan,0.17755469228172005,nan,nan,0.11324269104945375,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.1450432602667658,0.1450432602667658,nan,nan,0.035637463604013306,nan,nan,0.3808454545701784,nan,nan,0.20019480474159065,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.6491029389821512,0.6491029389821512,nan,nan,0.49437286959453,nan,nan,0.805669249122834,nan,nan,0.502569937738113,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,186.40828333765808,186.40828333765808,nan,nan,0.09148517078735681,nan,nan,13.653141885209356,nan,nan,10.110682387912068,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-Bolt,4.5690129082390865,4.5690129082390865,nan,nan,0.07001007111390248,nan,nan,2.137524949150088,nan,nan,1.8710435730709425,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.4719500001866968,0.4719500001866968,nan,nan,0.16251649824562261,nan,nan,0.6869861717579887,nan,nan,0.5467640302159011,Web,1,7

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:11.959471+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.564256+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.209199+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.014805+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/dataset_properties.csv

@@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
 dataset,domain,frequency,num_variates
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close,Finance,1h,1
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd,Finance,1h,1
+data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd,Finance,M,1
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total,Climate,5min,1
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count,Transportation,5min,1
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_t2m,Weather,1h,1
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level,Ocean,6min,1
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height,Ocean,10min,1

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,ETS,7.485363061070757,7.0695469094028
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,ETS,2.5428888835315244,2.530076537593773,nan,nan,2.5997353215947006,nan,nan,1.5946438108654624,nan,nan,1.342557334959072,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,ETS,12.452798370269898,12.34115277861862,nan,nan,0.3773771852016556,nan,nan,3.528852273795249,nan,nan,3.208539109591422,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,ETS,0.6799966149411162,0.7128696062257945,nan,nan,0.4503123163113331,nan,nan,0.8246190726275473,nan,nan,0.4953801311597622,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,184.12408958299307,188.36022491777598,nan,nan,0.09384486399064147,nan,nan,13.569233198047451,nan,nan,13.123950889148748,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,ETS,7.023855660273981,6.731590385041176,nan,nan,0.08549485016070735,nan,nan,2.6502557726140283,nan,nan,2.5922489560163284,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,ETS,0.5074210195682924,0.45386653897851287,nan,nan,0.15015696096508702,nan,nan,0.7123349068860043,nan,nan,0.46371001820340635,Web,1,7

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:12.042877+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.628348+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.242346+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.074539+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.14372890600255536,0.1437
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.10564495280678117,0.10564495280678117,nan,nan,0.5133721685666653,nan,nan,0.3250306951762882,nan,nan,0.18316449274985008,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.0734721900284958,0.0734721900284958,nan,nan,0.02275719324431839,nan,nan,0.2710575400694395,nan,nan,0.17434889344453325,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.611491934598256,0.611491934598256,nan,nan,0.4355642370089461,nan,nan,0.7819794975562058,nan,nan,0.4905433373163214,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,205.68916195378327,205.68916195378327,nan,nan,0.09693611804476399,nan,nan,14.341867450014425,nan,nan,11.79582748712677,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moirai-2.0,3.898341674431117,3.898341674431117,nan,nan,0.06430451206600145,nan,nan,1.9744218582742434,nan,nan,1.6120510590081123,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Moirai-2.0,0.48766161312112155,0.48766161312112155,nan,nan,0.162052999946506,nan,nan,0.6983277261580851,nan,nan,0.4355676130387057,Web,1,7

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:11.931945+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.551923+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.265158+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.114582+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Moving-Average,1.493630847038398,1.70
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.041860988151372104,0.04105282324310995,nan,nan,0.2848457047844908,nan,nan,0.20459958003713521,nan,nan,0.13257482543254462,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.46389363365167996,0.46328472542874694,nan,nan,0.06932678004397415,nan,nan,0.6810973745740618,nan,nan,0.5319686690368313,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Moving-Average,0.6687017666206255,0.7008452839613178,nan,nan,0.43836901278883134,nan,nan,0.8177418704093765,nan,nan,0.49139037712891187,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Moving-Average,212.35198938369263,216.9110160590275,nan,nan,0.10077994529885766,nan,nan,14.572302130538354,nan,nan,14.09710440510769,Hydrology,1,24
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 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-236537fa97e376a986fb.json

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 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-c32b5bc57b2a5538f458.json

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results/seasonal_naive/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.4220830567678604,1.4
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.012839820821143285,0.012839820821143285,nan,nan,0.12573229372802033,nan,nan,0.11331293315920864,nan,nan,0.08558102887643954,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.048492726544822805,0.048492726544822805,nan,nan,0.016264737771392934,nan,nan,0.22021064130696047,nan,nan,0.12620355450175305,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Seasonal-Naive,0.8397338871484389,0.8397338871484389,nan,nan,0.4702298246415893,nan,nan,0.9163699510287528,nan,nan,0.6971631378099782,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,211.68342708333333,211.68342708333333,nan,nan,0.09960616643959859,nan,nan,14.549344558547418,nan,nan,12.92842320706019,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Seasonal-Naive,3.0403892442060383,3.0403892442060383,nan,nan,0.05039438245479031,nan,nan,1.743671197274887,nan,nan,1.3904589938797214,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Seasonal-Naive,1.1956686926031785,1.1956686926031785,nan,nan,0.24653455434324129,nan,nan,1.0934663655564256,nan,nan,0.8509378537691182,Web,1,7

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:12.080566+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.662108+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.330479+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.191146+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Sundial,0.8427959919452709,0.72880537
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Sundial,0.0998453487697832,0.059222242613951814,nan,nan,0.40525379318442406,nan,nan,0.3159831463381919,nan,nan,0.16637762231625383,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Sundial,0.08005927082392682,0.08839528147546753,nan,nan,0.02753852375541584,nan,nan,0.2829474700786823,nan,nan,0.15517308543499334,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Sundial,0.85397476429818,0.8089495661511584,nan,nan,0.6288718576933934,nan,nan,0.9241075501791878,nan,nan,0.6402213452139157,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,219.2230827142566,217.04727737751662,nan,nan,0.10078081883035879,nan,nan,14.806183934905597,nan,nan,13.895787138831942,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Sundial,3.9979168536598664,4.423806752692526,nan,nan,0.06926394075220237,nan,nan,1.9994791455926382,nan,nan,1.888078307119778,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Sundial,0.3632078483298184,0.3563015156678547,nan,nan,0.1391300563020866,nan,nan,0.602667278296921,nan,nan,0.44954022702632723,Web,1,7

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:11.997909+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.592523+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.367145+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.241618+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -108,5 +108,5 @@ us_births/D/short,TabPFN-TS,112759.78666666668,112759.78666666668,215.285703125,
 us_births/M/short,TabPFN-TS,59338602.666666664,59338602.666666664,6332.360677083333,0.7153333155562595,0.019422224412361785,0.019690368324518204,4.7156280861706295,7703.155370798817,0.0239259480622513,0.01966826908953116,0.015286944232309424,Healthcare,1
 us_births/W/short,TabPFN-TS,1737954.0,1737954.0,983.3291015625,0.8942316441355983,0.013318025640078954,0.013351580926350184,6.532085345899004,1318.3148334142345,0.0178959945969944,0.01334859613394065,0.010610700543554966,Healthcare,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,0.6666766251994244,0.6666766251994244,nan,nan,0.5080896746125784,nan,nan,0.8165026792359131,nan,nan,0.6533824383573135,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,215.97423452420148,215.97423452420148,nan,nan,0.1005468699617923,nan,nan,14.69606187127019,nan,nan,14.09389485605449,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TabPFN-TS,5.419174015481595,5.419174015481595,nan,nan,0.07682027705467648,nan,nan,2.3279119432404642,nan,nan,2.3253402712928946,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TabPFN-TS,1.0318417053002116,1.0318417053002116,nan,nan,0.21346065016808555,nan,nan,1.0157960943517215,nan,nan,0.8543722734226411,Web,1,7

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:11.972277+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.572392+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.392255+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.277970+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,15 @@
-dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,81742.42789522807,124744.15551821391,297.3611653645833,0.4486972705324055,0.004943552533723208,0.0049579917738521604,4.904699820126863,285.90632713395496,0.0047624096472577765,0.004953215610330298,0.003661364469335062,Finance,1
-coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,97952.0961373647,155042.49553426108,344.3505859375,0.494849513065497,0.005734942849078377,0.005753831848928334,4.4515950592935765,312.9729958596503,0.005223298429098694,0.005746968263655385,0.004048322861622117,Finance,1
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,11.641811304915336,13.423471256234128,2.7575780550638833,3.5293238475457582,0.10321913729068599,0.11204715871745875,101.69350427694228,3.4120098629569253,0.14059996314044312,0.11363254752226123,0.10196536560973148,Weather,1
-noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.02908771671812005,0.034046774600905515,0.13568753997484842,0.17312143585760467,0.11185537202482503,0.12463965779787611,2.676967727907387,0.1705512143554541,0.1434961937098364,0.11416304242585044,0.08757558544176978,Ocean,1
-noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.05836318292564613,0.04761165148106272,0.16445205609003702,0.3447029766963658,0.07191232151835235,0.06762886788054125,17.47579260325252,0.24158473239351475,0.09877400134375952,0.06723764141999806,0.08169348159617512,Ocean,1
-nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,5.091922888105425,6.327109473932221,2.2220658461252847,1.3592926513955181,0.10384344306035338,0.11108617811955894,27.998005969855527,2.2565289468795706,0.10885767783941647,0.10719513629549113,0.08603730202253673,Weather,1
-open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,49.47017191748849,82.91626740256955,7.3194271723429365,0.5005687624158839,0.2545421621602366,0.295325743742574,5.8418762834746945,7.033503530779557,0.27381035642937446,0.28494120378950605,0.21288132768520807,Air Quality,1
-open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.6484289968751302,1.7882974488526695,1.16057284673055,0.9274277392234174,0.04635277574155072,0.04703534337119358,20.58434769273915,1.2839116001014752,0.04978813570351389,0.045005246764860715,0.03796367653364946,Weather,1
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,12.541379031458973,13.808125303080638,3.0202603340148926,0.7396555920036473,0.33108155235761566,0.30808027947552724,19.43875757528811,3.5413809497791924,0.34691078691714533,0.29586223680145884,0.27081315021125635,Hazards,1
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,430.1970050111413,571.0872243667642,16.349232991536457,0.15238120069781555,0.006005184220679013,0.0060436006179905065,2.234056811286407,20.741191022001153,0.007664181440000427,0.006041287017657814,0.004361342408824095,Hydrology,1
+dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.18471364393609205,0.2511561167570871,nan,nan,0.003988779263392523,nan,nan,0.42978325227501835,nan,nan,0.26875152458008783,Finance,1,24
+coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.16431138716961843,0.2840452984238427,nan,nan,0.006365738815062364,nan,nan,0.40535341021091514,nan,nan,0.28603521259581766,Finance,1,24
+data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TimesFM-2.5,28434.715767887308,30940.314541637516,136.81071631113687,1.4424608331286375,0.6894371389934627,1.1431172573156296,43.032391046456816,168.6259640977252,1.0381242287022936,0.8422577158188848,0.7508176845882389,Finance,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Transportation,1,12
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.07349968636756156,0.12715800629866036,nan,nan,0.017422859563450927,nan,nan,0.2711082558085636,nan,nan,0.19379553509865552,Weather,1,24
+noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.23905588982319972,0.42375839778175967,nan,nan,3.8372332158567244,nan,nan,0.4889334206445697,nan,nan,0.3120731305542026,Ocean,1,60
+noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.2071519093124696,1.3019518027243746,nan,nan,0.10344735727774368,nan,nan,1.0987046506283977,nan,nan,0.8717528265991279,Ocean,1,72
+nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.1617179170793861,0.26413559913635254,0.1911332978675114,0.01630353750267156,0.01601217538840988,10.994616695384883,0.4650043583043965,0.027809880236186378,0.015796796840529412,0.021259949519123158,Weather,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.03785281024197016,0.017934866424511135,nan,nan,0.21483569476265685,nan,nan,0.19455798683675302,nan,nan,0.19205918049403484,Air Quality,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.06591225974664346,0.03575909793348882,nan,nan,0.01791180333102477,nan,nan,0.2567338305456518,nan,nan,0.19379445942016174,Weather,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086373270893934,0.641798892026256,nan,nan,0.34810479649554643,nan,nan,0.7801521179163673,nan,nan,0.5751539108404323,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,5.54219699972541,6.215406233869209,nan,nan,0.08228977408365698,nan,nan,2.3541871207967753,nan,nan,2.1827408275623315,Hydrology,1,24
+wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.38719216672060525,0.341005570724447,nan,nan,0.12667853599052806,nan,nan,0.6222476731339421,nan,nan,0.5343002043100503,Web,1,7

results/timesfm_2_5/config.json

@@ -3,9 +3,12 @@
     "model_type": "zero-shot",
     "model_dtype": "float32",
     "model_link": "https://tsfm.ai/models/google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
-    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TSFM_Bench/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
+    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TS-Live/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
     "org": "Google / TSFM.ai",
     "testdata_leakage": "No",
     "replication_code_available": "Yes",
-    "api_model_id": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch"
+    "api_model_id": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
 }

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -1,67 +1,19 @@
 {
     "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
     "api_model_id": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-06-30T02:19:42.264357+00:00",
-    "datasets": [
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260629t020000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260629t010219z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260625t230000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 69,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260629t234200z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260629t171000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_nws_ksfo_observations_nws_station_ksfo_temperature_20260630t001000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260629t020000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260629t020000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260629t010000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260629t235000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.529035+00:00",
+    "resolved_tasks": [
+        {
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.315589+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
+            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]
 }

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TiRex,0.1330410943866506,0.1330410943
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TiRex,0.054159833785722145,0.054159833785722145,nan,nan,0.3703851807315448,nan,nan,0.23272265421682123,nan,nan,0.16469205232297768,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TiRex,0.050978502304613114,0.050978502304613114,nan,nan,0.01897836106835057,nan,nan,0.2257841940982874,nan,nan,0.145504435828122,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TiRex,0.6307491869497449,0.6307491869497449,nan,nan,0.46094357720472107,nan,nan,0.7941971965134005,nan,nan,0.49562625162646984,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,200.2824607966336,200.2824607966336,nan,nan,0.09407191590870852,nan,nan,14.152118597462133,nan,nan,11.304747665644282,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TiRex,5.351521304236548,5.351521304236548,nan,nan,0.07634472120812692,nan,nan,2.313335536457379,nan,nan,1.6937341387248428,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TiRex,0.5500816371095917,0.5500816371095917,nan,nan,0.16152377391214015,nan,nan,0.7416748863953745,nan,nan,0.5062535723576331,Web,1,7

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:11.867926+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.520705+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.431205+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.353516+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -11,5 +11,5 @@ nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.2061994614582545,0.2026127
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.3828962962540734,0.01469619627481291,nan,nan,0.17991828117972739,nan,nan,0.618786147432272,nan,nan,0.10713310781079002,Air Quality,1,24
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.06799423538503908,0.053116427317535554,nan,nan,0.020841131477064834,nan,nan,0.26075704282921885,nan,nan,0.14851172111139277,Weather,1,24
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Toto-1.0,2.6073259934411883,0.6788292400503413,nan,nan,0.4993245712545904,nan,nan,1.6147216458080904,nan,nan,0.5317841880215085,Hazards,1,24
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,187.13711702999657,188.00341282165414,nan,nan,0.092643638833568,nan,nan,13.67980690762836,nan,nan,11.7280012153063,Hydrology,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Toto-1.0,4.236198141488906,4.3338073099759296,nan,nan,0.06843427359882005,nan,nan,2.0582026483048033,nan,nan,1.8989285392423076,Hydrology,1,24
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Toto-1.0,1.4142901830281045,0.7431608109672617,nan,nan,0.20031694349088386,nan,nan,1.1892393295834547,nan,nan,0.5963496809202035,Web,1,7

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:40:11.893382+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T22:52:43.537847+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-def70342b7d2e8435a59",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:24:41.318410+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:37:47.451435+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T14:00:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-236537fa97e376a986fb",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T16:08:53.517199+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T22:50:13.390983+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T21:55:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 24,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]