Update leaderboard results from local eval

results/aggregates/live_metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:14.822510+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:32.793858+00:00",
   "scope": "Canonical metrics-only release history when available; otherwise legacy release history plus latest allowlisted snapshots",
   "release_deduplication": "One row per model, dataset, data source timestamp, and prediction length",
   "dataset_aggregation": "Arithmetic mean over releases, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
@@ -13,33 +13,33 @@
   "temporal_metrics": "Per-dataset MSE stability and Kendall tau, then equal-weight mean over datasets",
   "num_models": 12,
   "num_datasets": 13,
-  "num_model_releases": 26792,
-  "num_unique_releases": 2654,
+  "num_model_releases": 26804,
+  "num_unique_releases": 2655,
   "fixed_windows": {
     "1d": {
       "days": 1,
-      "num_model_releases": 168,
-      "num_unique_releases": 14,
+      "num_model_releases": 180,
+      "num_unique_releases": 15,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 24 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "7d": {
       "days": 7,
-      "num_model_releases": 2508,
-      "num_unique_releases": 209,
+      "num_model_releases": 2520,
+      "num_unique_releases": 210,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 168 hours through reference_time"
     },
     "30d": {
       "days": 30,
-      "num_model_releases": 26445,
-      "num_unique_releases": 2603,
+      "num_model_releases": 26457,
+      "num_unique_releases": 2604,
       "ranking_scope": "Cumulative release history through reference_time",
       "metrics_scope": "Trailing 720 hours through reference_time"
     }
   },
   "protocol_counts": {
     "historical-snapshot-recompute": 22388,
-    "prequential-v1": 4404
+    "prequential-v1": 4416
   }
 }

results/aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,1547.813481993682,12.240948036357286,0.22178631027386483,12.11166582431754,-15.610558556926808,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666,3757.8055948736796,-0.22222222222222218,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,1559.9521611291989,12.226483913531066,0.26103162002821184,16.049946926103228,-10.46042969671781,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666,3884.1515503059395,-0.44444444444444436,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,1547.7650365194054,12.18534888711587,0.14723127267799227,12.116151366338116,-8.0291446011725,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666,3757.750604978923,7.401486830834377e-17,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,1547.9176624564698,12.290805740641051,0.3559844403788633,12.155154619585485,-22.07367229278927,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666,3758.1666725625546,0.22222222222222232,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,1547.9129724667594,12.271892413027246,0.2507084631040376,12.195620155369545,-8.421776869938293,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666,3758.1276603056517,7.401486830834377e-17,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,1548.0100543693738,12.322644425234472,0.3336095322032448,12.183133636082188,-20.443305352248082,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666,3758.249958853024,0.22222222222222232,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,1547.855008591044,12.271518256236138,0.30505679430379073,12.138713749115345,-17.437604271935207,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666,3757.8681207859186,-0.22222222222222218,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,1548.0388134367333,12.353780309228172,0.3207810820799116,10.810078649647377,0.0,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,3758.0664525467787,-0.22222222222222218,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,1548.0744055097036,12.430938695510747,0.34993301508016605,12.289118171518222,-36.96823888011841,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,3758.0848210341287,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,1549.0892403368787,12.81669121272009,0.4780838086109092,12.895475838779529,-49.51794881900663,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,3756.4520371096482,-0.4444444444444445,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,2095.3743134827446,14.65861050886816,0.2816576088162993,10.903873277960875,-35.33852684804045,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666,4454.086364874243,-0.11111111111111112,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,1550.3816718440416,13.138285439270291,0.8399474176340962,12.9102919256076,-53.028802542945165,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,3758.1878902010867,-0.4444444444444445,0.0,7,14,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,1547.813481771736,12.240862820755208,0.22178631027386483,12.111582480265943,-12.039129985498235,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666,3757.8055949738464,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,1559.9521611151163,12.226461626200926,0.26103162002821184,16.049922020185658,-6.889001125289239,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666,3884.1515503430423,-0.44444444444444436,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,1547.7650364933795,12.185322128806854,0.14723127267799227,12.116018716094517,-4.4577160297439296,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666,3757.750604974836,-0.22222222222222218,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,1547.9176623910867,12.290761473944807,0.3559844403788633,12.155114104812414,-18.502243721360696,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666,3758.166672538849,-0.11111111111111105,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,1547.9129722135144,12.271824592217982,0.2507084631040376,12.195590886148851,-4.850348298509722,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666,3758.1276598252284,-0.22222222222222218,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,1548.0100540832957,12.322555461747639,0.3336095322032448,12.183000827224685,-16.871876780819512,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666,3758.249958582215,-0.11111111111111105,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,1547.8548023020292,12.268993725625094,0.30505679430379073,12.138138542708848,-13.866175700506634,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666,3757.868067660498,-0.3333333333333333,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,1548.0388134367333,12.353780309228172,0.3207810820799116,10.810078649647377,0.0,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,3758.0664525467787,-0.22222222222222218,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,1548.0743137784643,12.429171665975762,0.34993301508016605,12.28911818060323,-33.396810308689844,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,3758.084947162075,-0.4444444444444445,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,1549.0891589785128,12.815032982096046,0.4780838086109092,12.895474318600707,-45.94652024757806,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,3756.4521283043664,-0.5555555555555557,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,2095.4236428166537,14.694283069454682,0.2816576088162993,10.903842360701796,-35.33852684804045,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666,4454.302536772134,0.11111111111111116,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,1550.3815801127218,13.136518408989243,0.8399474176340962,12.910291926155365,-49.45737397151659,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,3758.1880163290693,-0.5555555555555557,0.0,7,15,0.8571428571428571,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.239612715014747,0.8731043478108425,0.15934988191492738,0.6379577984662552,23.546367925855414,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666,137.53709489095183,0.045455900560140435,0.07692307692307693,13,2550,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.419860654618743,0.8780912105969606,0.19586980868525528,0.6722686906510609,24.602515380164952,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666,140.29341593834639,0.04565390643665976,0.15384615384615385,13,2537,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.298497522215277,0.8741240850866852,0.13657694884172855,0.7162737533385746,23.86255336398246,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666,137.80039130426175,0.04990803002918525,0.23076923076923078,13,2531,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.91481107895892,0.9251663653151266,0.23874405425772355,0.6701870986852002,22.10469948146857,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666,157.7649087011658,0.08013911826436299,0.15384615384615385,13,1836,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.660268589138255,0.9730242253716782,0.20001069052278042,0.8176618701136503,18.488906977470453,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666,165.41299625473232,0.056824404897160535,0.15384615384615385,13,1729,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.195233816338558,0.9721440769520721,0.2732029709403973,0.7192204913143766,11.425157814900164,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666,158.74668761037853,0.04086244248996594,0.15384615384615385,13,1823,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.536596379976153,1.0145565599060158,0.22238008796041103,0.7659197794481357,15.756584229160033,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666,152.5105286099173,0.018830208464236456,0.3076923076923077,13,2077,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.122063361743535,1.2332464716826463,0.3634186558689441,0.9610246514635897,0.0,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,142.9182604798495,0.04953911214309611,0.23076923076923078,13,2384,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.867769544974921,1.1415135987824574,0.3383637977380708,0.9172605427325481,2.8782421269076455,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,143.172101953617,0.07710910842823591,0.15384615384615385,13,2376,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.788908129272503,1.1425369907866627,0.3463477956665799,0.9001510398015868,1.897100535407585,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,143.17901479935847,0.049840949985131486,0.15384615384615385,13,2376,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.966663575962432,1.6639541733376895,0.2822416275985668,0.701343102180405,-18.896888916351358,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666,215.47616838122636,-0.0022128576366653163,0.15384615384615385,13,1850,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.579813229859433,1.4015580925985438,0.3133458514598897,1.1108586555096474,-3.5956654255655343,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,148.05580490208465,0.056681620805458646,0.15384615384615385,13,2376,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.237783323081628,0.8730111685927363,0.15934988191492738,0.6379169185855164,23.555752312887936,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666,137.52687135546427,0.04511548164855687,0.07692307692307693,13,2551,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.41801911178551,0.8779987111238408,0.19586980868525528,0.6722276461908566,24.611899578268265,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666,140.2831353714672,0.0453347177406257,0.15384615384615385,13,2538,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.296655996966898,0.8740313476267491,0.13657694884172855,0.7162356087490104,23.87124159566361,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666,137.79011090735298,0.049546057795867036,0.23076923076923078,13,2532,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.910990984685185,0.9249744474870482,0.23874405425772355,0.6701105175207662,22.115295871506365,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666,157.74719039395399,0.07964251925095608,0.15384615384615385,13,1837,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.656192502841762,0.9728186166926085,0.20001069052278042,0.8175801412207797,18.499763240199837,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666,165.394401219826,0.05631771381944701,0.15384615384615385,13,1730,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.19137318604676,0.9719501193290442,0.2732029709403973,0.7191424958247243,11.43575751188509,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666,158.72882954941147,0.04036303481567304,0.15384615384615385,13,1824,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.53390445856818,1.0144127654647028,0.22238008796041103,0.7658638014236167,15.76734288746677,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666,152.4968826145831,0.01823835139255875,0.3076923076923077,13,2078,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.11999124049859,1.2331173689155683,0.3634186558689441,0.9609740636281436,0.0,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,142.90745748477175,0.04932089435459187,0.23076923076923078,13,2385,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.86577275683631,1.1413962329966574,0.3383637977380708,0.9172097761960951,2.8879267409241014,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,143.16123385538813,0.07673108919062158,0.15384615384615385,13,2377,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.786927005506396,1.1424244286330247,0.3463477956665799,0.9001049446840848,1.90656299904002,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,143.16815484869795,0.04947558282198478,0.15384615384615385,13,2377,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.96235806784457,1.6638259843126817,0.2822416275985668,0.7012651396140428,-18.902230813299585,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666,215.4584404619556,-0.001973630864272079,0.15384615384615385,13,1851,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.5778266067239,1.4014468127057578,0.3133458514598897,1.1108135834446111,-3.586212595394545,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,148.0449371913136,0.05629850202007712,0.15384615384615385,13,2377,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-27T18:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,121.80805353154697,1.844920132510471,0.1487653581530203,1.6311936961774656,14.248468791035224,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666,458.66875313524037,-0.1492920504205388,0.08333333333333333,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,122.64404472278301,1.8221087111013416,0.15176617937051678,1.9086215821846892,16.1448587242175,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666,467.5697722273621,-0.21769981341723607,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,121.71767975222706,1.809864355711909,0.11974850114333815,1.6859320744577728,15.844849902662448,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666,458.4576058284966,-0.14679935604232888,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,121.80844230647624,1.8526992614236468,0.17054385576475445,1.6044641582960424,12.99672053636894,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666,458.5422838548993,-0.10813338504315394,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,121.99607005340984,1.9291413634165442,0.17351844695515095,1.7981040047185388,7.301860604987907,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666,458.71079050979677,-0.1172475426632579,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,121.92638887654645,1.8936134663610238,0.18131139820153222,1.678474094830739,3.48889351507369,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666,458.7427521062691,-0.06358107521812557,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,122.05110069462889,1.9044427326413569,0.18000723277545044,1.698092953638633,10.75591327391677,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666,458.6908799624743,-0.098279313707963,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,122.3700353888998,2.059294054723886,0.23124687082206022,1.690066712161066,0.0,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,458.83947046636763,-0.14381672953337482,0.08333333333333333,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,122.20358814972555,2.0245550679202093,0.22752975137659298,1.8287220609711001,-3.8196792825759798,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,458.773577273471,0.05590192714629826,0.08333333333333333,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,122.25474966098606,2.089681058330992,0.22317209000312815,1.8208749489986866,-7.486257725713977,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,458.760218766128,0.03571048644234157,0.08333333333333333,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,164.7911679799614,2.4604318059111487,0.1667097064898333,1.5656481328197172,-25.2750744884335,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666,588.1798321443418,-0.10733437135660379,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,123.29145577773234,2.3458482379809382,0.3307690768862757,2.0734325816249264,-12.595838495100727,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,460.10582859620354,0.024715101847483004,0.0,12,209,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,121.80676471850961,1.844324278535506,0.1487653581530203,1.6309424822940735,14.325104749302811,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666,458.66585108053863,-0.1550874635286741,0.08333333333333333,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,122.64289439791189,1.82163645660167,0.15176617937051678,1.9084195266498194,16.221487360471937,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666,467.56684415948143,-0.2235786934508755,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,121.71652327489217,1.809365934822339,0.11974850114333815,1.685732182283953,15.921489797548041,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666,458.4546805558024,-0.1524283143636539,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,121.80729197678754,1.8522255394719265,0.17054385576475445,1.604294040768554,13.073355591748049,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666,458.5393557745796,-0.11331670736425875,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,121.99490114162683,1.9286179125259537,0.17351844695515095,1.7979174969524936,7.379192996920017,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666,458.70786866229986,-0.12343246809041256,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,121.92523790203893,1.8931374782792139,0.18131139820153222,1.6782987666386662,3.5656477917499694,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666,458.73982225196056,-0.06926519909225531,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,122.0499362500346,1.903831430830622,0.18000723277545044,1.6978913304652938,10.8437491958548,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666,458.688007629742,-0.10580282467974986,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,122.36787924044881,2.0583937781171526,0.23124687082206022,1.6897584581767247,0.0,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,458.83608229869145,-0.1469226425727133,0.08333333333333333,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,122.20226236685868,2.023852579418984,0.22752975137659298,1.828389009196319,-3.7318738821419966,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,458.7706740236679,0.05013433634666436,0.08333333333333333,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,122.25359357320794,2.0890738288314217,0.22317209000312815,1.8206464028690685,-7.404099190271574,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,458.75734468184294,0.029970717951209067,0.08333333333333333,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,164.79018017097692,2.4607775381365227,0.1667097064898333,1.5654756365617555,-25.324725411498818,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666,588.175669372573,-0.10381145748886236,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,123.29027684575652,2.345264066749322,0.3307690768862757,2.0732248683945644,-12.513758602223712,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,460.10288837507596,0.018919688739347733,0.0,12,210,0.8333333333333334,2026-07-20T15:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days,Stability,Improvement,SignificantImprovementRate,n_datasets,n_releases,MAPE_dataset_coverage,first_release,last_release
-1,Official,Chronos-2,14.24140208466598,0.8744629775065718,0.1594721711136503,0.638798331818326,23.52760179667014,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666,137.53822205289055,0.04201205096244469,0.15384615384615385,13,2599,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-2,Official,TiRex,14.420140238415009,0.878555513368537,0.19591910133596835,0.6725448293035339,24.676613073567086,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666,140.29286481305505,0.043399750336349824,0.15384615384615385,13,2585,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.300671095384386,0.8756283313850657,0.13673153051479084,0.7173015119412507,23.838827943049086,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666,137.80262379838481,0.04630764181341243,0.23076923076923078,13,2580,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.91481107895892,0.9251663653151266,0.23874405425772355,0.6701870986852002,22.10469948146857,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666,157.7649087011658,0.08013911826436299,0.15384615384615385,13,1836,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.660268589138255,0.9730242253716782,0.20001069052278042,0.8176618701136503,18.488906977470453,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666,165.41299625473232,0.056824404897160535,0.15384615384615385,13,1729,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.195233816338558,0.9721440769520721,0.2732029709403973,0.7192204913143766,11.425157814900164,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666,158.74668761037853,0.04086244248996594,0.15384615384615385,13,1823,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-7,Official,Sundial,17.536596379976153,1.0145565599060158,0.22238008796041103,0.7659197794481357,15.756584229160033,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666,152.5105286099173,0.018830208464236456,0.3076923076923077,13,2077,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.123651192795542,1.2344597967947983,0.3635508398412354,0.9620501442447539,0.0,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,142.9185642390031,0.04640833978155452,0.23076923076923078,13,2435,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-9,Official,Moving-Average,15.871392683890502,1.1431761299468641,0.33855960732682017,0.9186858749106526,2.8809509747867614,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,143.17479994013695,0.07256948850400062,0.15384615384615385,13,2426,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-10,Official,ARIMA,15.798683336055188,1.145403035731396,0.34662868940299557,0.9024201209887072,1.865801864722041,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,143.19126679499507,0.044268175181587446,0.15384615384615385,13,2426,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.966663575962432,1.6639541733376895,0.2822416275985668,0.701343102180405,-18.896888916351358,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666,215.47616838122636,-0.0022128576366653163,0.15384615384615385,13,1850,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
-12,Official,ETS,17.606765938963676,1.4063220910929835,0.31385708370369625,1.1148822861849714,-3.622151314179533,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666,148.08609979238946,0.05063923014768337,0.15384615384615385,13,2426,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+1,Official,Chronos-2,14.23957269273286,0.8743697982884655,0.1594721711136503,0.6387574519375873,23.53698618370266,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666,137.52799851740298,0.041671632050861114,0.15384615384615385,13,2600,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+2,Official,TiRex,14.418298695581777,0.8784630138954171,0.19591910133596835,0.6725037848433295,24.6859972716704,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666,140.28258424617587,0.043080561640315755,0.15384615384615385,13,2586,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,14.298829570136006,0.8755355939251295,0.13673153051479084,0.7172633673516866,23.847516174730238,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666,137.79234340147605,0.04594566958009421,0.23076923076923078,13,2581,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,17.910990984685185,0.9249744474870482,0.23874405425772355,0.6701105175207662,22.115295871506365,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666,157.74719039395399,0.07964251925095608,0.15384615384615385,13,1837,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,19.656192502841762,0.9728186166926085,0.20001069052278042,0.8175801412207797,18.499763240199837,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666,165.394401219826,0.05631771381944701,0.15384615384615385,13,1730,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,18.19137318604676,0.9719501193290442,0.2732029709403973,0.7191424958247243,11.43575751188509,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666,158.72882954941147,0.04036303481567304,0.15384615384615385,13,1824,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+7,Official,Sundial,17.53390445856818,1.0144127654647028,0.22238008796041103,0.7658638014236167,15.76734288746677,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666,152.4968826145831,0.01823835139255875,0.3076923076923077,13,2078,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,16.121579071550595,1.23433069402772,0.3635508398412354,0.9619995564093079,0.0,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,142.90776124392536,0.04619012199305028,0.23076923076923078,13,2436,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+9,Official,Moving-Average,15.869395895751891,1.1430587641610641,0.33855960732682017,0.9186351083741997,2.890635588803218,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,143.1639318419081,0.07219146926638625,0.15384615384615385,13,2427,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+10,Official,ARIMA,15.79670221228908,1.1452904735777578,0.34662868940299557,0.9023740258712051,1.8752643283544759,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,143.18040684433456,0.043902808018440743,0.15384615384615385,13,2427,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,28.96235806784457,1.6638259843126817,0.2822416275985668,0.7012651396140428,-18.902230813299585,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666,215.4584404619556,-0.001973630864272079,0.15384615384615385,13,1851,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
+12,Official,ETS,17.604779315828146,1.4062108112001974,0.31385708370369625,1.1148372141199347,-3.6126984840085443,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666,148.0752320816184,0.05025611136230184,0.15384615384615385,13,2427,0.8461538461538461,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00

results/aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666
-12,Official,ETS,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666
+2,Official,TiRex,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666
+12,Official,ETS,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666

results/aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666
-12,Official,ETS,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666
+2,Official,TiRex,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666
+12,Official,ETS,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666

results/aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666
-12,Official,ETS,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666
+2,Official,TiRex,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666
+12,Official,ETS,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666

results/aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 Rank,Status,model,WinRate,eligible_opponents,shared_releases,shared_datasets,covered_span_days
-1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705702858737314,11,2594,13,31.847916666666666
-2,Official,TiRex,0.6681510610518168,11,2585,13,31.847916666666666
-3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086130470967579,11,2580,13,31.847916666666666
-4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5800010107211936,11,1836,13,26.504166666666666
-5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594280362981278,11,1726,13,28.504166666666666
-6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232476780991541,11,1823,13,26.504166666666666
-7,Official,Sundial,0.508625528641841,11,2075,13,28.504166666666666
-8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.38582008182858424,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-9,Official,Moving-Average,0.3774914838655082,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754415774407565,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
-11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752439128730757,11,1850,13,26.504166666666666
-12,Official,ETS,0.3673662962094528,11,2426,13,31.847916666666666
+1,Official,Chronos-2,0.6705983046530325,11,2595,13,31.847916666666666
+2,Official,TiRex,0.668151909980351,11,2586,13,31.847916666666666
+3,Official,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086666053358422,11,2581,13,31.847916666666666
+4,Official,Moirai-2.0,0.5799053298333193,11,1837,13,26.504166666666666
+5,Official,TabPFN-TS,0.5594697080729556,11,1727,13,28.504166666666666
+6,Official,Chronos-Bolt,0.5232283792445839,11,1824,13,26.504166666666666
+7,Official,Sundial,0.5086949747056246,11,2076,13,28.504166666666666
+8,Official,Seasonal-Naive,0.3858370481738511,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+9,Official,Moving-Average,0.37745169777212484,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+10,Official,ARIMA,0.3754392302360616,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666
+11,Official,Toto-1.0,0.3752049856854265,11,1851,13,26.504166666666666
+12,Official,ETS,0.3673518263068268,11,2427,13,31.847916666666666

results/aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv

@@ -1012,6 +1012,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.956742
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.762645+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,452.2404506595346,21.265945797437144,0.20791012204922418,23.104531119898613,0.9616040738644465,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.394491+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:40.980832+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.318613+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.716529+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,14.730247781693249,3.8380004926645395,0.07285828654679107,2.7724742935863618,12.205667657038132,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:47:59.936868+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.827638+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ARIMA,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -3494,6 +3495,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:36.985495
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.768725+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,460.91622646447394,21.468959603680705,0.18977643456201645,20.736235250693333,0.01151890091967229,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.398996+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:40.987848+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.356009+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.2761158361191085e-09,,1.8284365387902989e-09,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.720769+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,8.98468642325276,2.997446650609942,0.0739047920146499,2.7077797851984093,35.386837126131894,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.027373+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.831445+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-2,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,False
@@ -5793,6 +5795,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.022556
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.778680+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,460.7669760359152,21.465483363668174,0.18974626052700785,20.793384520648004,0.027712146428493685,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.403420+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:40.995072+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.383853+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2825236033380433e-15,5.729331202974779e-08,,6.615357107869962e-08,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.727008+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,16.023109064437847,4.002887590782165,0.09891343697403591,3.2061535475925513,8.042969927882845,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.080671+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.836369+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Chronos-Bolt,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0459942197556757e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,False
@@ -7860,6 +7863,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.056049
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.783779+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,460.84750383598043,21.46735903263325,0.19012650569328873,21.273335829498745,0.018974458643674683,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.410748+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.000368+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.408163+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.732604+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,6.778360945154837,2.603528556623652,0.0659019091876865,2.5225173618949928,47.05310253842168,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.151197+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.841346+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,ETS,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -10045,6 +10049,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.083343
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.788967+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,455.40304861089794,21.340174521566077,0.1885489553868277,20.834230167521355,0.613184074780725,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.414800+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.005260+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.446341+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,7.853649481634599e-14,2.8024363474724275e-07,,3.428585403043706e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.738047+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,19.31706618290394,4.395118449246157,0.10797854677164836,3.2807850701421573,-1.2873964905265796,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.188133+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.846131+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moirai-2.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.2167879962794955e-13,3.488248839001449e-07,,4.100515180343539e-07,0.0,False
@@ -12122,6 +12127,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.111588
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.794304+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,460.8461999439778,21.46732866343593,0.19012621637578953,21.273303795969777,0.019115925591965996,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.418811+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.011411+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.470182+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.407835548068247e-15,6.639153220154094e-08,,2.543803079815313e-07,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.745339+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,18.75514989299572,4.330721636516912,0.1090082813428403,4.2587825602635965,0.18856154012919688,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.206195+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.850386+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Moving-Average,livehouse-canonical-v1,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128038e-08,,2.502171382189061e-07,0.0,False
@@ -14550,6 +14556,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.140359
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.800072+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,461.0224236641224,21.471432734312874,0.18980598158590253,20.6609166798919,0.0,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.422981+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.016812+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.502691+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.751544+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,18.826013513513505,4.338895425510219,0.10710470085470088,4.0236177809183005,0.0,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.271491+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.854934+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Seasonal-Naive,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -16843,6 +16850,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.181368
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.810926+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,456.72436875784024,21.371110611239658,0.18941545784952227,21.118262465009476,0.46832687858700905,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.427858+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.465601986920691e-16,2.1131971008215704e-08,,2.148879615894696e-08,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.027444+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.118532485826672e-16,2.0294167846518547e-08,,2.100961607814716e-08,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.530059+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.2531377771354436e-15,5.703628474169267e-08,,5.3529450933708095e-08,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.756331+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,19.6292163993245,4.430487151468165,0.10734713255669855,4.110896586680706,-2.0886700915103606,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.322093+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,4.0567913947880086e-16,2.0141478085751324e-08,,1.987035718351735e-08,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.859633+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Sundial,livehouse-canonical-v1,3.8988234753057142e-16,1.9745438651257444e-08,,1.9862935044893484e-08,0.0,False
@@ -18793,6 +18801,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.224512
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.815955+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,460.7404896855698,21.464866402695588,0.18974060938878554,21.25658137839959,0.03058638772176953,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.436270+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.032371+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.585039+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.761258+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,12.439099049342035,3.5269106948350757,0.08704174012979589,3.5093982629437814,20.428247143940983,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.375114+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.864562+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TabPFN-TS,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -20841,6 +20850,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.359704
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.827034+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,461.16966372987207,21.47486120397224,0.18983230329885173,20.733889890700897,-0.01596631198232674,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.444850+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.042308+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.652100+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,5.906315718058047e-17,7.685255830522526e-09,,4.1680416340218845e-09,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.772115+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,11.836457564915554,3.4404153186665636,0.08507285300782723,2.9355069308602104,22.795148932125958,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.454082+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.877872+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TiRex,livehouse-canonical-v1,2.0440368407041843e-18,1.4296981641955705e-09,,1.39774869271451e-09,0.0,False
@@ -23426,6 +23436,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.297459
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.821393+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,460.9082541889043,21.468773933061577,0.18989425101690371,21.21965183728322,0.012383737515272471,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.439979+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.037369+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.622216+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.766480+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,13.194295051320376,3.63239522234577,0.08459454021962103,3.625870191777938,17.587958125981743,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.396046+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.873502+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,TimesFM-2.5,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,False
@@ -25717,6 +25728,7 @@ future-9b8af5aeccb86bb71124,2026-07-26T15:20:00+00:00,2026-07-26T15:29:37.401596
 future-9c1cfa8d202d44df5de3,2026-07-22T13:55:00+00:00,2026-07-22T14:07:49.832981+00:00,2026-07-22T07:58:31.600424+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,455.35226386657433,21.338984602519734,0.18863141290590937,20.766976890192755,0.6187599760996391,True
 future-9c7e503936f8475f5d68,2026-07-18T15:30:00+00:00,2026-07-20T04:18:57.448904+00:00,2026-07-20T03:53:10.763284+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.0017585822073328565,0.04193545286905647,,0.00027004905818170367,-100.0,False
 future-9dbac58a74e55536ef09,2026-07-16T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-18T03:37:41.047926+00:00,2026-07-17T17:44:31.746794+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.5938635983362707,0.7706254591799253,,0.00026672188425301877,-100.0,False
+future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:55:39.686360+00:00,2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.4259638831041896,1.1941372965887087,,0.000281771747513406,-100.0,False
 future-9e27750023baa2a61fb2,2026-07-21T07:55:00+00:00,2026-07-21T08:05:18.783033+00:00,2026-07-21T02:08:31.469837+00:00,prequential-v1,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,20.568630634720858,4.535265222092404,0.11180086154084279,4.02421421168532,-4.423487402628195,True
 future-9f482bb771aea23c7065,2026-07-25T21:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T06:48:00.477373+00:00,2026-07-27T04:57:31.719997+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,1.6154206253338284,1.2709919847638018,,0.00027921658048500023,-100.00000000000001,False
 future-a007334074536dc223c1,2026-07-16T20:20:00+00:00,2026-07-19T10:52:24.882527+00:00,2026-07-19T10:18:55.772687+00:00,prequential-v1,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,Toto-1.0,livehouse-canonical-v1,0.009431487883987255,0.09711584774889861,,0.000283332430370609,-100.0,False

results/aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv

@@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
 model,dataset,domain,frequency,prediction_lengths,MSE,RMSE,MAPE,CRPS,RTG,Stability,Improvement,Improvement_pvalue,n_releases,MAPE_coverage,first_release,last_release
 ARIMA,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.0327893525066814,1.2605427150765056,0.014573089004276608,1.18695990650739,9.833312187229014,2.135623055384809,0.029852068385153693,0.5168645252289956,213,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9550408452691226,1.2800735826671796,0.01173517790567427,1.1046317964975265,18.661052514691725,1.7735615937688818,-0.15268817204301077,0.23631302243273788,31,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.747707547358669,0.38338676168276564,,0.1570002245923449,-32.22915113207401,74.23653969948337,0.0659682797887817,0.14237348305352351,261,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.721952938399284,0.3819234536854709,,0.156400988064818,-32.10613910485235,74.09536034089662,0.06121850666787452,0.17275161482794876,262,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 ARIMA,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,511,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 ARIMA,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,2.00800771168344,1.326207173091614,0.08803981956779476,1.0373703489917312,-58.91418609438252,1.337635791274214,-0.0582010582010582,0.6809893725769562,28,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 ARIMA,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.2027941747100277,0.967418322280209,1.2758665416539192,0.7572602994674381,5.458924023571559,1.1766438451498902,0.07548407812260055,0.028225160001043314,379,0.9973614775725593,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -14,7 +14,7 @@ ARIMA,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.941628730518
 ARIMA,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.1257656989002478,1.030157882628527,0.19812277023131533,0.6390464595327553,45.798520099415526,0.6175932364599516,0.3846153846153845,0.07631653936341436,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6117911614426588,1.0695205059362567,0.0100853202752571,0.7741205692557181,28.297622329135265,1.9032512469123888,0.07619756763464879,0.08004919532870981,238,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6159840041421918,1.0825470904741978,0.008336713219130282,0.7508053857926016,37.704191635511265,2.0268378330384347,-0.04435483870967743,0.7355269048685159,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.492511970642848,0.33069304633516183,,0.14508269857063497,-31.475234107072104,72.8116635948088,0.04180068043385841,0.34099863890000226,272,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.468729875512288,0.3294817164997807,,0.14455126012102984,-31.353237075649346,72.67875763347044,0.037375234583272,0.3938831143314372,273,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.7296862743653316e-18,1.3151753777977035e-09,,2.356162747109682e-09,0.0,5.783248303753822e-34,0.0,1.0,530,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.31386553452913357,0.49365396547686097,0.03316284099899457,0.3340700346147921,7.7242988117908125,0.36722327176548764,-0.2698412698412698,0.04526042867191174,28,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-2,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3292213684176995,0.4794405430284587,0.4788820790457298,0.3150554185399946,50.5722768921193,0.42335808277862125,-0.04474513626064833,0.18248902347617235,398,0.9974874371859297,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -27,7 +27,7 @@ Chronos-2,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,166.45846242
 Chronos-2,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.27994700016746327,0.4475570508758146,0.08047915672405251,0.3225868987296447,83.37287201644678,0.3794230793437146,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3584243203182118,0.988483236863085,0.009942212435786146,0.7224566765181408,22.070587855613862,1.5938837288700864,0.21714285714285714,1.881443456264298e-05,176,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.514274095721929,1.045016033103337,0.00882882127302277,0.7080324611428557,34.210414178101914,1.711954252866411,0.08571428571428572,0.6119326072720337,21,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.435380433159647,0.47403248797331937,,0.19062104286389744,-24.665494883922534,87.72048771795171,0.05112349691786223,0.3351349007875981,187,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.385192239366246,0.47151103887395757,,0.189607101498417,-24.527698823118495,87.48833292538022,0.044631197152054485,0.3991298153570063,188,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.0941039077622845e-12,1.045994219755676e-06,,3.2148618499168906e-06,-100.0,2.022091386389012e-28,0.0,1.0,388,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.36167861848650795,0.49455381778420476,0.03324062618358011,0.34431122124691615,7.986333567886383,0.5712708639071138,-0.15217391304347824,0.31275941965675913,24,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 Chronos-Bolt,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3307511900733309,1.0466734612677182,1.0781998827846424,0.7028542459133291,7.3077253433019855,1.0750437742935728,0.0010236611973911264,0.9803029356406604,262,0.9961832061068703,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ Chronos-Bolt,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,213.96672
 Chronos-Bolt,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.5888227944617089,0.6921086990730174,0.14236933700516546,0.5316201479443244,69.39145215325834,0.6217751936303204,0.5454545454545454,0.013770768197851531,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 ETS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9062516623742625,1.1438753096316576,0.010268748918062547,0.8908433451688154,25.155142045278517,2.4520911506313183,0.09442820444680665,0.04033071077808843,213,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 ETS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.7107012982517127,1.1483285083687549,0.008882762360871122,0.8552155797525732,30.22823273347917,1.8284059104472181,-0.07096774193548387,0.5894657747826293,31,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.766438399614407,0.3790193812203653,,0.15351570789422964,-32.19633956238787,74.29208949082822,0.10235036957864051,0.022841332801625844,261,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.74061229885252,0.3775727426141484,,0.15292977104875666,-32.07345277016502,74.1508092508044,0.09736982536868065,0.03011670137839116,262,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 ETS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,511,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 ETS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,5.613843832129828,2.2103929965175833,0.15925778436226873,1.7831247026080472,-78.68678586194969,3.9623550410667945,0.021164021164021163,0.8910537311539605,28,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 ETS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.9087364876415058,1.2294813094344743,1.4465656338823611,0.9340138957920082,-11.896977157932165,1.7015725451063541,0.09488908433499463,0.00581206323635433,379,0.9973614775725593,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -53,7 +53,7 @@ ETS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,179.61687475645203
 ETS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0833490720100392,0.9952444213048076,0.2129850550946607,0.6701769428306765,48.5062282411613,0.7673220126829784,0.2051282051282051,0.3674042836022003,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.3232765046928578,0.9429012137153884,0.008985526216856703,0.6909521591212189,31.450343129388866,1.6483081134835997,0.30585516178736516,1.5042570947855893e-09,177,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.8354760648986028,1.1643877410331194,0.009684535709908557,0.7442716890088968,29.00418007830918,1.782282812514967,0.0,1.0,21,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.38597163056471,0.4715423838321226,,0.18816026387270177,-24.65779961794287,87.49463598586237,0.038592858713835346,0.46594076266348083,188,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.336310405006168,0.4690474520671041,,0.18716470873506072,-24.52004654745157,87.26429799210821,0.0321370715395456,0.5429255320560067,189,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,1.2167879962794953e-13,3.488248839001448e-07,,4.1005151803435396e-07,0.0,2.527605838037179e-29,0.0,1.0,389,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3509776387406318,0.5109250784451215,0.03392609341986356,0.3477349888235497,-0.05414682793155379,0.5466483923340161,-0.18840579710144928,0.20826013369971733,24,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 Moirai-2.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.7060769241952278,0.7072379720538087,0.8286674532196859,0.4683897173620283,39.01937643641005,0.8576148819298502,0.04629495254404551,0.2632598770099731,263,0.9961977186311787,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -66,7 +66,7 @@ Moirai-2.0,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,211.3342367
 Moirai-2.0,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.32576694973257325,0.4774421673330105,0.08443561400522327,0.33703281202278523,81.50457626947743,0.4588390803064478,0.7575757575757575,0.00024002425044091711,12,1.0,2026-07-01T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.58996163721899,1.3525809286874553,0.012714891921704255,1.1294004024235538,13.346509924484181,2.916466841762542,-0.010452653025068653,0.8204538033826462,213,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.373280996608969,1.5776522602429985,0.012692017698245876,1.3334994557395554,13.950577941966152,3.392855649239463,-0.01935483870967742,0.8927741234198122,31,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.801060400109588,0.399747932826349,,0.17291107753844398,-32.98579534005057,74.30094686854005,0.09188377445416727,0.041024661488323705,261,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.775102154307643,0.39822217761094897,,0.17225111256455794,-32.85989535783664,74.15966159156493,0.0869695243651807,0.05275927822753272,262,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,9.578202015526527e-15,9.786828912128036e-08,,2.5021713821890616e-07,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,511,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.9267203694223873,0.8991660074328582,0.06467944417529574,0.6832483151466748,-40.002513417357854,0.6820557529393131,-0.08465608465608465,0.5436680154547943,28,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 Moving-Average,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.4146935974536352,1.0338474801045372,2.05112611092433,0.9040836779419791,5.3598091960547665,1.57581487992708,0.16538928676131842,1.5284994176531803e-06,379,0.9973614775725593,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -79,7 +79,7 @@ Moving-Average,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,181.173
 Moving-Average,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,1.0234789580573493,0.981223967552433,0.20267540197053469,0.6344362738751932,49.37921755829025,0.594749234030022,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.0875686328022915,1.5113130029658803,0.013694684671326944,1.0259475715085344,0.0,3.1938439251829718,-0.01621047036938613,0.7248514480489768,213,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.9918747246231088,1.7580898361214292,0.013825662536288684,1.1867655360975984,0.0,3.672936481441398,-0.10537634408602152,0.4177776715741393,31,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.084582536478169,0.4414023606395479,,0.1729598093899292,0.0,74.19426771525487,0.1532158349841357,0.0018431634244105027,262,0.0,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.057644960293842,0.4397240246675344,,0.17230216752913097,0.0,74.05382877924427,0.15037900373358068,0.0021965985288120897,263,0.0,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,512,0.0,2026-06-25T14:25:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.40627897829962645,0.5557580915813806,0.03936781341215746,0.39697760149965017,0.0,0.4744483125303129,-0.32275132275132273,0.015817547817850365,28,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 Seasonal-Naive,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.4855291188121826,1.071112587327652,2.0885485988287824,0.9417532852731555,0.0,1.6004515257545118,0.18325232606582414,9.618033168339042e-08,380,0.9973684210526316,2026-06-29T09:30:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -92,7 +92,7 @@ Seasonal-Naive,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,180.485
 Seasonal-Naive,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,2.8654131840406496,1.6732133427269074,0.3759880599808413,1.451931952818942,0.0,0.8962259101819249,0.4102564102564102,0.05725682817696707,13,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.336994401217593,1.369755220053674,0.014086341211751853,1.0807232549657544,3.064994291773444,2.0818723983489034,-0.16075205640423032,0.0011583516212729406,185,1.0,2026-07-01T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.282577534418037,1.295313737711657,0.010674569717621086,0.989769586334373,28.22757281538543,2.165692860705266,-0.11333333333333331,0.4448568614280395,25,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.8738701183197355,0.4205987978769077,,0.16373577524784436,-31.469075547199573,80.15635621269894,0.05309096732863549,0.23695004844905077,224,0.0,2026-07-01T00:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,7.838875140016092,0.41872947013983824,,0.16300806092909595,-31.32921298921202,79.97895827335437,0.045396825396825394,0.3108018351600368,225,0.0,2026-07-01T00:15:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 Sundial,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,6.751698569162441e-16,2.3382125472452056e-08,,2.0239177666982936e-08,0.0,1.4422975132869825e-15,0.0,1.0,442,0.0,2026-06-29T22:35:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 Sundial,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3203636538912743,0.5075621603907478,0.03374635902678368,0.3398897031230472,2.1126852444260993,0.3582833926162125,-0.32923076923076927,0.018371833944896835,26,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 Sundial,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3889334068247246,0.5404692710194866,0.786659285290951,0.3570406250054914,53.287644128905,0.385046976032722,0.040461025174400964,0.2840730654515441,315,0.9968253968253968,2026-07-01T07:24:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -105,7 +105,7 @@ Sundial,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,205.5443098809
 Sundial,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.31166353208424874,0.5111701376597275,0.09318070827996433,0.3397871771134533,81.89086047181716,0.306401845448795,0.6969696969696969,0.0009744810873283095,12,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.2897977163308854,0.9634070131740257,0.009453686521010893,0.8285803803384979,23.76185492880625,1.5247855829526096,0.30085999312005507,5.171577126565932e-09,171,1.0,2026-07-01T13:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.765817913634766,1.1309547489096634,0.009888979337353616,0.9801839284965714,28.490130166116533,1.967159871775054,0.028571428571428574,0.881507823538253,21,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.697009299356019,0.48914304750680604,,0.19443303613920887,-24.980260540311384,88.92377086776229,0.044858891502546204,0.4065080115273021,182,0.0,2026-07-01T12:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,9.644020177501615,0.48647013467890005,,0.1933705605318908,-24.839129124829398,88.68203541398043,0.038271907492270274,0.4778893253351838,183,0.0,2026-07-01T12:55:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,375,0.0,2026-06-30T03:30:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.37327560506336477,0.5185272509173141,0.03418482796535857,0.4123620485360199,3.465213338537667,0.506550571327117,-0.22666666666666663,0.11834341824544657,25,1.0,2026-06-28T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 TabPFN-TS,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.9738968901589243,0.8724066889225358,0.9221871798183304,0.7107335290300193,22.785335789816966,0.900259410781127,-0.011738514470754908,0.784789742150339,244,0.9959016393442623,2026-07-01T12:54:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -118,7 +118,7 @@ TabPFN-TS,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,233.05746726
 TabPFN-TS,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.330527016667658,0.5220646204807641,0.09473347581504885,0.40977797737842825,78.66631528029852,0.3229533174905907,0.7435897435897434,0.00014526497165386054,13,1.0,2026-06-30T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6024420656404206,1.071766136199834,0.009922092182442147,0.7756962587154468,29.91063601582313,1.7892061365665708,0.05070442680397625,0.24511763187869207,237,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.867204911520663,1.1762075955597422,0.009183553445265521,0.7970810087245487,36.72233479048648,2.026569696352826,-0.0881720430107527,0.4997789602585872,31,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.511695458309568,0.32707814463700835,,0.1451332154505737,-31.474600438515008,72.94963605596367,0.006126934264268913,0.8892545772423255,271,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,18;36,6.487755401477548,0.3258756514864504,,0.14459963746791732,-31.352605863171934,72.81598868653435,0.001977481215826084,0.964101991554655,272,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 TiRex,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,2.044036840704184e-18,1.4296981641955703e-09,,1.3977486927145102e-09,0.0,3.855505757918902e-34,0.0,1.0,529,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 TiRex,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.314654479190125,0.4795158295005707,0.03176581536708863,0.32560657639009666,14.010661877279322,0.4008075938825765,-0.24867724867724864,0.06578881844114484,28,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 TiRex,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.3930608949976051,0.5239423177203615,0.6185610546285029,0.3493516574821373,45.595343712705386,0.5017723668626823,-0.0239864308950293,0.47482633604761837,398,0.9974874371859297,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -131,7 +131,7 @@ TiRex,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,168.692619273457
 TiRex,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.28449572647514776,0.46295416442262743,0.0840872562984529,0.3356773200795831,82.75970061880996,0.36273456534043697,0.6703296703296704,0.00045112620881470087,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.6415734687925971,1.0793235991283914,0.010593342108474227,0.8861496866583475,27.881784803619308,1.89999029967701,0.06512802019473493,0.13629766785971706,236,1.0,2026-06-29T09:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,1.9785579687021722,1.2185666465217302,0.009193383581546519,1.0035637754191074,31.749193213903137,2.2395890934282816,-0.040322580645161296,0.759913005591003,32,1.0,2026-06-30T08:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.511633278273054,0.3279196583341937,,0.13487926869872632,-29.1403290585772,72.94843799978018,0.12210585986208722,0.00609119859234737,271,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,6.487693450044111,0.32671407135502384,,0.13438338903439273,-29.02738204672225,72.81479283996615,0.11740022082895056,0.008266523557156355,272,0.0,2026-06-29T10:05:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.0,0.0,,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,1.0,529,0.0,2026-06-25T14:45:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.3316526222970445,0.518229795992016,0.03950672721610399,0.3705334650768531,1.9642900030307806,0.3385346334229588,-0.31746031746031744,0.0177084999871278,28,1.0,2026-06-26T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 TimesFM-2.5,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,0.1744067230616709,0.3561792058967257,0.2561062659534957,0.2746828490909965,62.83740592221253,0.20499230894741285,-0.014550568980948727,0.665438036422784,396,0.9974747474747475,2026-06-29T10:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00
@@ -144,7 +144,7 @@ TimesFM-2.5,usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Hydrology,15min,24,167.315606
 TimesFM-2.5,wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Web,1D,7,0.2628934288941335,0.4467675878121167,0.07882639118800008,0.348531478510896,84.26849086288598,0.34343778548255705,0.5604395604395604,0.004565983394728434,14,1.0,2026-06-28T00:00:00+00:00,2026-07-22T00:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,2.269724042997417,1.2932646570136275,0.009829127666112472,0.7493222343920141,-0.29848063666583374,2.8668257073572234,0.1915134015441592,0.00014113314543141658,179,1.0,2026-07-03T07:00:00+00:00,2026-07-27T02:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Finance,1h,24,3.265937562692351,1.540499852025,0.011156437972542885,0.9013833142116295,2.935846945828291,3.584032706887164,-0.009523809523809525,0.9762195060555436,21,1.0,2026-07-10T05:00:00+00:00,2026-07-25T06:00:00+00:00
-Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,12.004597328690606,1.5090977310322014,,0.19183579729940103,-87.56940580147621,87.80806483320745,0.003982250540448287,0.935325106525347,188,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T04:35:00+00:00
+Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Climate,5min,36,11.948625723158404,1.5074312737071036,,0.19082228393669265,-87.63885046180316,87.57760188268789,0.0070921985815602835,0.8847821344287348,189,0.0,2026-07-03T04:20:00+00:00,2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Transportation,5min,12,0.5477107462350409,0.3106070723404378,,0.00027576286063002214,-100.0,3.5639710273811596,-0.019738999278641225,0.5599871413827242,391,0.0,2026-07-01T21:10:00+00:00,2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Weather,1h,24,0.706714315171903,0.6649440647216701,0.0315691235852417,0.3206082426601839,-12.340778812805832,1.3527117377628468,-0.18115942028985507,0.22687503195798614,24,1.0,2026-06-30T23:00:00+00:00,2026-07-24T23:00:00+00:00
 Toto-1.0,noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Ocean,6min,60,1.3181093275529228,0.9649455923902256,0.7603678346242598,0.3940922454587267,16.66167378631522,2.4900047379701507,0.02189822755860492,0.5952758161130641,265,0.9962264150943396,2026-07-03T07:42:00+00:00,2026-07-27T11:06:00+00:00

results/aggregates/metadata.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:11.488159+00:00",
+  "generated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:30.740013+00:00",
   "baseline_model": "Seasonal-Naive",
   "normalization": "Per-config metric / Seasonal-Naive metric",
   "metric_aggregation": "Geometric mean over dataset configurations",

results/aggregates/results_by_domain.csv

@@ -1,16 +1,16 @@
 domain,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 Climate,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Toto-1.0,466.5322886455913,63.18198346150644,2,5,5,1.0
-Climate,TiRex,12.728468946234685,57.16864919425445,3,5,5,1.0
-Climate,TabPFN-TS,13.581486282489797,62.235474694608406,4,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Chronos-2,25.947584799687736,76.26269459356719,5,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Moirai-2.0,30.809493351470664,77.85151102806765,6,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Sundial,149.75936909569182,119.22186920983694,7,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Moving-Average,291.5292240958405,2.303156083440095,8,5,5,1.0
-Climate,Chronos-Bolt,47.4655458843892,96.98926440492649,9,5,5,1.0
-Climate,ARIMA,498.03148316002745,9.29051171563987,10,5,5,1.0
-Climate,TimesFM-2.5,19.702239675462305,97.57289238633813,11,5,5,1.0
-Climate,ETS,2730.709743546208,63.60664425761785,12,5,5,1.0
+Climate,TabPFN-TS,0.8608157267656049,0.9914782241370393,2,5,5,1.0
+Climate,TiRex,1.0377626510477502,5.648077446625834,3,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Toto-1.0,1196.7056277509837,46.08969280618174,4,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Chronos-2,1.3404550071638948,4.8219892988322135,5,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Sundial,1.999269774647462,10.197003528055074,6,5,5,1.0
+Climate,TimesFM-2.5,1.1667410760808812,1.2001752193234292,7,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Chronos-Bolt,1.659728918320581,10.196788366145494,8,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Moirai-2.0,1.4824060116514644,14.748371632894651,9,5,5,1.0
+Climate,ARIMA,7.768114077941136,34.84406300542313,10,5,5,1.0
+Climate,Moving-Average,4.448829912179885,27.760038786622744,11,5,5,1.0
+Climate,ETS,41.67150566777602,91.51964639360355,12,5,5,1.0
 Finance,TiRex,0.3931124718915428,0.5540640832588316,1,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Chronos-Bolt,0.4094997273505915,0.5971475845353197,2,2,2,1.0
 Finance,Chronos-2,0.4792565171069634,0.5968336898677795,3,2,2,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv

@@ -60,17 +60,17 @@ frequency,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 1mo,TabPFN-TS,0.8352213750339312,0.8925810519947165,11,1,1,1.0
 1mo,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,12,1,1,1.0
 5min,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,2,2,1.0
-5min,TabPFN-TS,988.7642745307069,31216.705375700676,2,2,2,1.0
-5min,TiRex,526.860121002509,786726.5202421992,3,2,2,1.0
-5min,Moving-Average,34760.877934146,500.21709109036453,4,2,2,1.0
-5min,ARIMA,32911.90397602059,9261.415809244585,5,2,2,1.0
-5min,TimesFM-2.5,1171.7980614225014,59595.20379947529,6,2,2,1.0
-5min,ETS,34760.888480596994,101594.6051003379,7,2,2,1.0
-5min,Chronos-2,1648.5865281685012,2064701.8557205228,8,2,2,1.0
-5min,Moirai-2.0,1969.2165300265635,24004028.41764697,9,2,2,1.0
-5min,Sundial,48563.11139278662,15947792.54993992,10,2,2,1.0
-5min,Toto-1.0,7790391752.588761,612895213.3872131,11,2,2,1.0
-5min,Chronos-Bolt,4574.910284864281,128679230.09094329,12,2,2,1.0
+5min,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,2,2,1.0
+5min,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,2,2,1.0
+5min,Chronos-2,1.0,2075.594868502009,4,2,2,1.0
+5min,TiRex,1.0,2413.6848893618544,5,2,2,1.0
+5min,Sundial,1.0,34118.677210150985,6,2,2,1.0
+5min,ARIMA,1.0,252290.1359197037,7,2,2,1.0
+5min,ETS,1.0,252290.1359197037,8,2,2,1.0
+5min,Moving-Average,1.0,252290.1359197037,9,2,2,1.0
+5min,Chronos-Bolt,1.0459942197556757,461166.5554836744,10,2,2,1.0
+5min,Moirai-2.0,1.0,374952.8836038598,11,2,2,1.0
+5min,Toto-1.0,82096258430.39575,278556068.70281273,12,2,2,1.0
 6min,TimesFM-2.5,0.08149338046575896,0.3178393092479955,1,1,1,1.0
 6min,Chronos-2,0.22608336574130738,0.3547554165549258,2,1,1,1.0
 6min,TiRex,0.3300878677297042,0.42664723259611365,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_by_prediction_length.csv

@@ -36,17 +36,17 @@ prediction_length,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
 24,ARIMA,318.62496343381406,2.8441818163453627,11,7,7,1.0
 24,ETS,583.4904598160068,3.4117380320294015,12,7,7,1.0
 36,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,1,1,1,1.0
-36,Moving-Average,1208318634.7525988,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
-36,ARIMA,1083193423.3268,342.79755336616876,3,1,1,1.0
-36,ETS,1208319367.9605007,41250.027312132894,4,1,1,1.0
-36,TiRex,277581.58710277843,442811086.7701007,5,1,1,1.0
-36,TabPFN-TS,977654.7905882351,974482694.5132996,6,1,1,1.0
-36,Toto-1.0,12840454368.65738,1364095120.751701,7,1,1,1.0
-36,Moirai-2.0,3877813.742129859,1405173142.724299,8,1,1,1.0
-36,Chronos-2,2717837.5408586725,1809295116.920599,9,1,1,1.0
-36,TimesFM-2.5,1373110.6967535324,3551588315.9009943,10,1,1,1.0
-36,Chronos-Bolt,19129631.076232657,5150561681.9043,11,1,1,1.0
-36,Sundial,2358375788.148201,11695251725.525408,12,1,1,1.0
+36,TabPFN-TS,1.0,1.0,2,1,1,1.0
+36,TimesFM-2.5,1.0,1.0,3,1,1,1.0
+36,Chronos-2,1.0,1828.4365387902994,4,1,1,1.0
+36,TiRex,1.0,4168.041634021886,5,1,1,1.0
+36,Sundial,1.0,53529.450933708096,6,1,1,1.0
+36,Chronos-Bolt,1.0,66153.5710786996,7,1,1,1.0
+36,ARIMA,1.0,254380.30798153122,8,1,1,1.0
+36,ETS,1.0,254380.30798153122,9,1,1,1.0
+36,Moving-Average,1.0,254380.30798153122,10,1,1,1.0
+36,Moirai-2.0,1.0,342858.54030437075,11,1,1,1.0
+36,Toto-1.0,1425963883104.188,281771747.5134,12,1,1,1.0
 60,TimesFM-2.5,0.08149338046575896,0.3178393092479955,1,1,1,1.0
 60,Chronos-2,0.22608336574130738,0.3547554165549258,2,1,1,1.0
 60,TiRex,0.3300878677297042,0.42664723259611365,3,1,1,1.0

results/aggregates/results_overall.csv

@@ -1,13 +1,13 @@
 overall,model,MSE,CRPS,Rank,n_configs,n_group_configs,coverage
-Overall,TiRex,5.884585721961557,6.043536715298672,1,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-2,7.7549365981662,4.729740795175732,2,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moirai-2.0,12.16521961506784,8.779520301025027,3,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Toto-1.0,477.5856939746589,17.20684771921069,4,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Sundial,27.31286891306433,8.466792620690253,5,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TabPFN-TS,4.44230532413971,2.1198247580976255,6,13,13,1.0
-Overall,TimesFM-2.5,6.593456422276087,2.9330098547677568,7,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Moving-Average,45.883139361583396,0.38477916911390664,8,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ARIMA,95.1059450221979,6.464900376752193,9,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,10,13,13,1.0
-Overall,Chronos-Bolt,14.926569007748236,11.143686903266865,11,13,13,1.0
-Overall,ETS,137.9544060627763,10.547531868847628,12,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TiRex,2.243848524458126,2.481154147006,1,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-2,2.481064089119964,1.6354996463403184,2,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Sundial,5.192746109064968,3.288475075417385,3,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TimesFM-2.5,2.223217457377029,0.5403381461849569,4,13,13,1.0
+Overall,TabPFN-TS,1.5375346159095784,0.431375818345862,5,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moirai-2.0,3.787089536826842,4.629961033741285,6,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Toto-1.0,686.1192861145609,15.240986145070666,7,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Chronos-Bolt,4.109875978498929,4.685705133149082,8,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Seasonal-Naive,1.0,1.0,9,13,13,1.0
+Overall,Moving-Average,9.18382883563589,1.0023467226410019,10,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ARIMA,19.196863621101308,10.748933053402773,11,13,13,1.0
+Overall,ETS,27.612530678879875,12.131783029736749,12,13,13,1.0

results/arima/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ARIMA,0.76413926245335,1.6578120356268264,nan,nan,0.014333035290697807,nan,nan,0.8741505948366963,nan,nan,1.1517753244212898,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,ARIMA,2.0030811547356007,0.686916018742742,nan,nan,0.008070643356983933,nan,nan,1.415302495841649,nan,nan,0.6801317725091276,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ARIMA,27197.688534080287,28885.073828115153,130.26006235500384,1.3733941545973163,0.6111556523811462,1.024494621436719,15.484310582150973,164.91721721542686,1.0152918018145418,0.8019294507021014,0.723321704945088,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ARIMA,0.0010831934233268713,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.03291190397602167,nan,nan,3.4279755336616863e-10,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ARIMA,4.407835548068247e-15,1.12132504091072e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.639153220154094e-08,nan,nan,2.543803079815313e-07,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,ARIMA,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,nan,nan,2.502171382189061e-07,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ARIMA,3.135466967901013,3.201931762072862,nan,nan,0.1023625171142742,nan,nan,1.7707249837004653,nan,nan,1.3510313576748605,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,ARIMA,4.479393784785299,4.436234201784126,nan,nan,3.720516739234823,nan,nan,2.1164578391230235,nan,nan,1.706168453313047,Ocean,1,60

results/arima/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:09.304509+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.376571+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-7cda1dcb0f2ede3d56af",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T11:02:28.377339+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:34:57.523085+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.318613+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/chronos_2/all_results.csv

@@ -1,3 +1,15 @@
-dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-2,253427.98031171164,253427.98031171164,430.1599934895833,0.9318014749305178,0.007149086996462027,0.007183290602900378,3.2641156533937963,503.4163091435474,0.008389478022961463,0.007168654940634957,0.006453564120717358,Finance,1
-coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-2,151474.27375920615,151474.27375920615,331.1985677083333,0.6128762551879093,0.00555338622541073,0.005536958612993723,3.7665332417731356,389.19696011043834,0.006507699932794779,0.005537918117874429,0.004363665891866698,Finance,1
+dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.17505582868640848,0.17505582868640848,nan,nan,0.003231618795337522,nan,nan,0.41839673598919064,nan,nan,0.2881331988179761,Finance,1,24
+coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-2,2.2560049558764144,2.2560049558764144,nan,nan,0.013873897978694727,nan,nan,1.5020003182011694,nan,nan,0.9690457209453692,Finance,1,24
+data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-2,25067.461899718543,25067.461899718543,121.96686029434204,1.2859549577545721,0.6608019070822674,0.9393767274480805,18.969076544647905,158.32707254199624,0.9747204171363386,0.7508734105557137,0.605299940786381,Finance,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-2,1.6284716271939715e-18,1.6284716271939715e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.2761158361191085e-09,nan,nan,1.8284365387902989e-09,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Chronos-2,1.7296862743653321e-18,1.7296862743653321e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.3151753777977035e-09,nan,nan,2.356162747109682e-09,Transportation,1,12
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.06025211913342343,0.06025211913342343,nan,nan,0.014048149370033328,nan,nan,0.24546307081396873,nan,nan,0.16759977605525547,Weather,1,24
+noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Chronos-2,0.6764766705393601,0.6764766705393601,nan,nan,1.4029538557481118,nan,nan,0.8224820183684018,nan,nan,0.4884797334102632,Ocean,1,60
+noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,Chronos-2,1.9505935172101228,1.9505935172101228,nan,nan,0.13077107686209835,nan,nan,1.3966365014598905,nan,nan,0.9113497410294875,Ocean,1,72
+nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.22763978935275495,0.22763978935275495,0.4551292260487874,0.3293397414624391,0.02734639793034648,0.02740698654518156,1.2449814398684094,0.4771161172636646,0.02853423165374086,0.027219291695583462,0.02293888289302154,Weather,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.03526190188175566,0.03526190188175566,nan,nan,0.2142754133607554,nan,nan,0.1877815269981466,nan,nan,0.1128105078936095,Air Quality,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.16410673128769995,0.16410673128769995,nan,nan,0.03774184875099514,nan,nan,0.4051008902578467,nan,nan,0.20244880321228498,Weather,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,Chronos-2,0.6326804740446184,0.6326804740446184,nan,nan,0.4433038595658039,nan,nan,0.7954121409964889,nan,nan,0.49632226407417623,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,Chronos-2,1.2600998320276883e-06,1.2600998320276883e-06,nan,nan,2.683003743489584e-06,nan,nan,0.0011225416838708878,nan,nan,0.002486851610667671,Hydrology,1,24
+wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,Chronos-2,0.5379146607901764,0.5379146607901764,nan,nan,0.17100514688638668,nan,nan,0.7334266567218404,nan,nan,0.48842848142456025,Web,1,7

results/chronos_2/config.json

@@ -3,9 +3,12 @@
     "model_type": "zero-shot",
     "model_dtype": "float32",
     "model_link": "https://tsfm.ai/models/amazon/chronos-2",
-    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TSFM_Bench/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
+    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TS-Live/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
     "org": "Amazon / TSFM.ai",
     "testdata_leakage": "No",
     "replication_code_available": "Yes",
-    "api_model_id": "amazon/chronos-2"
+    "api_model_id": "amazon/chronos-2",
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
 }

results/chronos_2/online_meta.json

@@ -1,19 +1,19 @@
 {
     "model": "Chronos-2",
     "api_model_id": "amazon/chronos-2",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-06-30T10:59:48.162083+00:00",
-    "datasets": [
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.322264+00:00",
+    "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260628t230000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T10:58:37.207440Z",
-            "context_length": 48,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260629t100204z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T10:58:37.207440Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.356009+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]
 }

results/chronos_bolt/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.1307955914180554,0.1307955914180554,nan,nan,0.0028605090107030515,nan,nan,0.36165673147067984,nan,nan,0.2930958431713805,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,4.231186308620229,4.231186308620229,nan,nan,0.01879295978035576,nan,nan,2.056984761397184,nan,nan,1.3269289689017092,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Chronos-Bolt,24494.29886562596,24494.29886562596,120.14190149307251,1.2667135440416435,0.6356253615465683,0.9144911966348365,18.167880022797153,156.5065457596773,0.9635125763281969,0.7396382845884965,0.5956771935646294,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.9129631076232625e-05,1.9129631076232625e-05,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.004373743371099021,nan,nan,0.005150561681904362,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Chronos-Bolt,3.2825236033380433e-15,3.2825236033380433e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,5.729331202974779e-08,nan,nan,6.615357107869962e-08,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Chronos-Bolt,1.0941039077622847e-12,1.0941039077622847e-12,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.0459942197556757e-06,nan,nan,3.2148618499168906e-06,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Chronos-Bolt,0.14618389699689283,0.14618389699689283,nan,nan,0.0223592580184212,nan,nan,0.3823400279814982,nan,nan,0.21171284259484002,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Chronos-Bolt,2.3489095886510687,2.3489095886510687,nan,nan,2.6874723443448696,nan,nan,1.5326152774427992,nan,nan,0.867349830031334,Ocean,1,60

results/chronos_bolt/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:09.195633+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.348830+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-7cda1dcb0f2ede3d56af",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T11:02:28.377339+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:34:57.611044+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.383853+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/dataset_properties.csv

@@ -1,10 +1,14 @@
 dataset,domain,frequency,num_variates
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close,Finance,1h,1
-coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd,Finance,1h,1
+data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd,Finance,M,1
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total,Climate,5min,1
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count,Transportation,5min,1
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_t2m,Weather,1h,1
+noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level,Ocean,6min,1
 noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height,Ocean,10min,1
 nws_ksfo_observations_temperature,Weather,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5,Air Quality,1h,1
 open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m,Weather,1h,1
 usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count,Hazards,1h,1
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060,Hydrology,15min,1
 wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews,Web,1D,1

results/ets/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,ETS,0.7157633861777374,0.6995576764496922,nan,nan,0.007373212705828319,nan,nan,0.8460280055516705,nan,nan,0.5777462342181262,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,ETS,2.349801332225942,2.314730774872386,nan,nan,0.014065429037619417,nan,nan,1.5329061720229136,nan,nan,1.2696879671247965,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,ETS,27619.336324418462,28734.51642651467,129.964918000045,1.370282306464171,0.618770085277974,1.0227875260688906,19.0701060641571,166.19066256687967,1.0231316056095572,0.8001124321457544,0.7242860136139402,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ETS,0.0012083193679605332,2.238094179223228e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.03476088848059746,nan,nan,4.125002731213289e-08,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,ETS,4.407835548068247e-15,1.12132504091072e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.639153220154094e-08,nan,nan,2.543803079815313e-07,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,ETS,9.578202015526527e-15,9.143141084502762e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,9.786828912128038e-08,nan,nan,2.502171382189061e-07,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,ETS,9.72254979744294,9.901571756927,nan,nan,0.1997997084916222,nan,nan,3.1181003507653404,nan,nan,2.518724944686868,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,ETS,4.771630911865606,4.792667874488699,nan,nan,3.872967045855693,nan,nan,2.1844063064973986,nan,nan,1.762845953836015,Ocean,1,60

results/ets/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:09.285925+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.370957+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-7cda1dcb0f2ede3d56af",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T11:02:28.377339+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:34:57.656575+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.408163+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/moirai_2_0/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.333539099554969,0.333539099554969,nan,nan,0.004700526407462011,nan,nan,0.5775284404728213,nan,nan,0.35926806277472745,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,3.3093880585159816,3.3093880585159816,nan,nan,0.01678605695070035,nan,nan,1.8191723553627297,nan,nan,1.1081397727013216,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Moirai-2.0,20775.499102946527,20775.499102946527,107.845894018809,1.137070854757381,0.5779948164087865,0.7687864471222213,13.629300063640835,144.13708441253598,0.8873615660779484,0.6639394837327767,0.5370367497191665,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moirai-2.0,3.877813742129857e-06,3.877813742129857e-06,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0019692165300265628,nan,nan,0.001405173142724328,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moirai-2.0,7.853649481634599e-14,7.853649481634599e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,2.8024363474724275e-07,nan,nan,3.428585403043706e-07,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Moirai-2.0,1.2167879962794955e-13,1.2167879962794955e-13,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,3.488248839001449e-07,nan,nan,4.100515180343539e-07,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Moirai-2.0,0.11768236873357002,0.11768236873357002,nan,nan,0.019765022792300333,nan,nan,0.34304863902013955,nan,nan,0.19215746258783267,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Moirai-2.0,2.9245088140094326,2.9245088140094326,nan,nan,3.0444437773920314,nan,nan,1.710119532082314,nan,nan,1.1179022239513798,Ocean,1,60

results/moirai_2_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
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results/moving_average/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
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+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Moving-Average,4.407835548068247e-15,1.12132504091072e-14,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,6.639153220154094e-08,nan,nan,2.543803079815313e-07,Climate,1,36
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results/moving_average/online_meta.json

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results/online_status.json

@@ -1,21 +1,266 @@
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+            ]
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+    },
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+    "aggregate_status": "ok",
+    "aggregate_files": {
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+        "gift_domain": "aggregates/results_by_domain.csv",
+        "gift_frequency": "aggregates/results_by_frequency.csv",
+        "gift_overall": "aggregates/results_overall.csv",
+        "gift_metadata": "aggregates/metadata.json",
+        "live_releases": "aggregates/live_release_metrics.csv",
+        "live_by_dataset": "aggregates/live_results_by_dataset.csv",
+        "live_rank": "aggregates/live_rank_up_to_now.csv",
+        "live_overall": "aggregates/live_overall_up_to_now.csv",
+        "live_rank_1d": "aggregates/live_rank_1d.csv",
+        "live_overall_1d": "aggregates/live_overall_1d.csv",
+        "live_rank_7d": "aggregates/live_rank_7d.csv",
+        "live_overall_7d": "aggregates/live_overall_7d.csv",
+        "live_rank_30d": "aggregates/live_rank_30d.csv",
+        "live_overall_30d": "aggregates/live_overall_30d.csv",
+        "live_metadata": "aggregates/live_metadata.json"
+    },
+    "push_status": "pending"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67.json

@@ -589,7 +589,23 @@
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+    "TabPFN-TS",
+    "TiRex",
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+  "target_start": "2026-07-27T07:55:00",
+  "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00"
 }

results/prequential/tasks/future-ac4a13cff82387e43706.json

@@ -0,0 +1,595 @@
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+}

results/seasonal_naive/online_meta.json

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     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
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     "resolved_tasks": [
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+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
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             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
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results/sundial/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Sundial,0.10473457323496249,0.11476492390289855,nan,nan,0.0027136884183524257,nan,nan,0.32362721337205635,nan,nan,0.2123141761986193,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Sundial,2.8441660902956243,2.843487024785437,nan,nan,0.015264503024766838,nan,nan,1.6864655615504351,nan,nan,1.3267261152393919,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Sundial,27047.212071285932,27202.68214463723,143.1162110964457,1.5089426812363538,2.4254864254221506,0.8536544624552972,36.2452386153836,164.4603662627745,1.0124792572257424,0.881076689786568,0.7401326095810744,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Sundial,0.002358375788148293,0.0002694235122434657,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.04856311139278756,nan,nan,0.011695251725525484,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Sundial,3.2531377771354436e-15,4.199943304492918e-15,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,5.703628474169267e-08,nan,nan,5.3529450933708095e-08,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Sundial,4.550053386613752e-16,6.458747515440812e-16,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,2.133085414748728e-08,nan,nan,2.17466107771608e-08,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Sundial,0.08695338508506821,0.08353722033822863,nan,nan,0.016796435774787625,nan,nan,0.294878593806109,nan,nan,0.1770426087971502,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Sundial,1.1084349749528957,1.123949749505446,nan,nan,1.9088112694417887,nan,nan,1.0528223852829572,nan,nan,0.7153024006551958,Ocean,1,60

results/sundial/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:09.242394+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.363009+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-7cda1dcb0f2ede3d56af",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T11:02:28.377339+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:34:57.747483+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.530059+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/tabpfn_ts/all_results.csv

@@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ car_parts/M/short,TabPFN-TS,1.4236728433498649,1.4236728433498649,0.468705652862
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TabPFN-TS,1.6740136547343187,1.6740136547343187,nan,nan,0.011933554487200813,nan,nan,1.293836796019621,nan,nan,1.166515310353448,Finance,1,24
 covid_deaths/D/short,TabPFN-TS,582148.6825669118,582148.6825669118,131.52239363470866,39.24224311247435,0.10336535201007536,0.1573858522759746,693.2680572368323,762.9866857074976,0.28707744008204383,0.04948593833338505,0.0410740544263699,Healthcare,1
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TabPFN-TS,30432.245376910596,30432.245376910596,136.32157135009766,1.4373035437945425,0.7106828034516671,1.1410403944957686,57.4921417517817,174.44840319392608,1.0739693319653159,0.8392463572886636,0.8392463572886636,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TabPFN-TS,9.776547905882346e-07,9.776547905882346e-07,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0009887642745307066,nan,nan,0.000974482694513341,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TabPFN-TS,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Transportation,1,12
 electricity/15T/long,TabPFN-TS,424692.1608811323,424692.1608811323,63.71647982085639,0.9447757940923152,0.1490332890817207,0.13456292517572793,8.252942553633748,651.684095924653,1.028111539984608,0.10052055681683048,0.0806289122434531,Energy,1
 electricity/15T/medium,TabPFN-TS,368464.5532976957,368464.5532976957,58.99590192588996,0.8891286550107368,0.13686671560267977,0.13146080236911156,8.060963797324014,607.0128114773985,1.045944184165752,0.10165587833115326,0.08271194794165343,Energy,1

results/tabpfn_ts/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:09.214534+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.352194+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-7cda1dcb0f2ede3d56af",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T11:02:28.377339+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:34:57.791469+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.585039+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/timesfm_2_5/all_results.csv

@@ -1,11 +1,15 @@
-dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates
-binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,81742.42789522807,124744.15551821391,297.3611653645833,0.4486972705324055,0.004943552533723208,0.0049579917738521604,4.904699820126863,285.90632713395496,0.0047624096472577765,0.004953215610330298,0.003661364469335062,Finance,1
-coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,97952.0961373647,155042.49553426108,344.3505859375,0.494849513065497,0.005734942849078377,0.005753831848928334,4.4515950592935765,312.9729958596503,0.005223298429098694,0.005746968263655385,0.004048322861622117,Finance,1
-nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,11.641811304915336,13.423471256234128,2.7575780550638833,3.5293238475457582,0.10321913729068599,0.11204715871745875,101.69350427694228,3.4120098629569253,0.14059996314044312,0.11363254752226123,0.10196536560973148,Weather,1
-noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.02908771671812005,0.034046774600905515,0.13568753997484842,0.17312143585760467,0.11185537202482503,0.12463965779787611,2.676967727907387,0.1705512143554541,0.1434961937098364,0.11416304242585044,0.08757558544176978,Ocean,1
-noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.05836318292564613,0.04761165148106272,0.16445205609003702,0.3447029766963658,0.07191232151835235,0.06762886788054125,17.47579260325252,0.24158473239351475,0.09877400134375952,0.06723764141999806,0.08169348159617512,Ocean,1
-nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,5.091922888105425,6.327109473932221,2.2220658461252847,1.3592926513955181,0.10384344306035338,0.11108617811955894,27.998005969855527,2.2565289468795706,0.10885767783941647,0.10719513629549113,0.08603730202253673,Weather,1
-open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,49.47017191748849,82.91626740256955,7.3194271723429365,0.5005687624158839,0.2545421621602366,0.295325743742574,5.8418762834746945,7.033503530779557,0.27381035642937446,0.28494120378950605,0.21288132768520807,Air Quality,1
-open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.6484289968751302,1.7882974488526695,1.16057284673055,0.9274277392234174,0.04635277574155072,0.04703534337119358,20.58434769273915,1.2839116001014752,0.04978813570351389,0.045005246764860715,0.03796367653364946,Weather,1
-usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,12.541379031458973,13.808125303080638,3.0202603340148926,0.7396555920036473,0.33108155235761566,0.30808027947552724,19.43875757528811,3.5413809497791924,0.34691078691714533,0.29586223680145884,0.27081315021125635,Hazards,1
-usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,430.1970050111413,571.0872243667642,16.349232991536457,0.15238120069781555,0.006005184220679013,0.0060436006179905065,2.234056811286407,20.741191022001153,0.007664181440000427,0.006041287017657814,0.004361342408824095,Hydrology,1
+dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5],eval_metrics/MASE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/sMAPE[0.5],eval_metrics/MSIS,eval_metrics/RMSE[mean],eval_metrics/NRMSE[mean],eval_metrics/ND[0.5],eval_metrics/mean_weighted_sum_quantile_loss,domain,num_variates,prediction_length
+binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.18471364393609205,0.2511561167570871,nan,nan,0.003988779263392523,nan,nan,0.42978325227501835,nan,nan,0.26875152458008783,Finance,1,24
+coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,2.224373829174787,1.7006943045362455,nan,nan,0.012061613174095603,nan,nan,1.4914334813107781,nan,nan,1.340259097269519,Finance,1,24
+data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TimesFM-2.5,28434.715767887308,30940.314541637516,136.81071631113687,1.4424608331286375,0.6894371389934627,1.1431172573156296,43.032391046456816,168.6259640977252,1.0381242287022936,0.8422577158188848,0.7508176845882389,Finance,1,12
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.0,0.0,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.0,nan,nan,0.0,Transportation,1,12
+nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.07349968636756156,0.12715800629866036,nan,nan,0.017422859563450927,nan,nan,0.2711082558085636,nan,nan,0.19379553509865552,Weather,1,24
+noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.2438408969528248,0.1718848752055582,nan,nan,0.6037193360326559,nan,nan,0.49380248779529734,nan,nan,0.43764817618993246,Ocean,1,60
+noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_wave_height/10min/short,TimesFM-2.5,1.1785047988827921,1.3574131843350636,nan,nan,0.10778625850392323,nan,nan,1.0855896088682833,nan,nan,0.8113230833776232,Ocean,1,72
+nws_ksfo_observations_temperature/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.21622905324208355,0.1617179170793861,0.26413559913635254,0.1911332978675114,0.01630353750267156,0.01601217538840988,10.994616695384883,0.4650043583043965,0.027809880236186378,0.015796796840529412,0.021259949519123158,Weather,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_pm2_5/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.03785281024197016,0.017934866424511135,nan,nan,0.21483569476265685,nan,nan,0.19455798683675302,nan,nan,0.19205918049403484,Air Quality,1,24
+open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_temperature_2m/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.06591225974664346,0.03575909793348882,nan,nan,0.01791180333102477,nan,nan,0.2567338305456518,nan,nan,0.19379445942016174,Weather,1,24
+usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earthquake_count/1h/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.6086373270893934,0.641798892026256,nan,nan,0.34810479649554643,nan,nan,0.7801521179163673,nan,nan,0.5751539108404323,Hazards,1,24
+usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_00060/15min/short,TimesFM-2.5,3.3558199566508234e-06,1.597313095652873e-05,nan,nan,1.097785101996528e-05,nan,nan,0.0018318897228410949,nan,nan,0.002929859832357882,Hydrology,1,24
+wikimedia_time_series_hourly_pageviews/1D/short,TimesFM-2.5,0.38719216672060525,0.341005570724447,nan,nan,0.12667853599052806,nan,nan,0.6222476731339421,nan,nan,0.5343002043100503,Web,1,7

results/timesfm_2_5/config.json

@@ -3,9 +3,12 @@
     "model_type": "zero-shot",
     "model_dtype": "float32",
     "model_link": "https://tsfm.ai/models/google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
-    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TSFM_Bench/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
+    "code_link": "https://github.com/zhouziyu02/TS-Live/blob/main/scripts/run_online_eval.py",
     "org": "Google / TSFM.ai",
     "testdata_leakage": "No",
     "replication_code_available": "Yes",
-    "api_model_id": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch"
+    "api_model_id": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
 }

results/timesfm_2_5/online_meta.json

@@ -1,67 +1,19 @@
 {
     "model": "TimesFM-2.5",
     "api_model_id": "google/timesfm-2.5-200m-pytorch",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-06-30T02:19:42.264357+00:00",
-    "datasets": [
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_binance_btcusdt_1h_crypto_btcusdt_close_20260629t020000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_coingecko_bitcoin_7d_coin_bitcoin_price_usd_20260629t010219z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_point_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_t2m_20260625t230000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 69,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_noaa_coops_sf_water_level_coops_station_9414290_water_level_20260629t234200z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_noaa_ndbc_46013_realtime_ndbc_station_46013_wave_height_20260629t171000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_nws_ksfo_observations_nws_station_ksfo_temperature_20260630t001000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_air_quality_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_pm2_5_20260629t020000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_open_meteo_shanghai_hourly_grid_shanghai_31.2304_121.4737_temperature_2m_20260629t020000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_usgs_earthquake_all_week_hourly_earth_global_earthquake_count_20260629t010000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
-        },
-        {
-            "dataset": "task_usgs_potomac_iv_usgs_site_01646500_usgs_00060_20260629t235000z",
-            "data_fetched_at": "2026-06-30T02:16:24.198018Z",
-            "context_length": 96,
-            "prediction_length": 24
+    "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
+    "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
+    "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.336142+00:00",
+    "resolved_tasks": [
+        {
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.622216+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
+            "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]
 }

results/tirex/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,TiRex,0.11273598682480811,0.11273598682480811,nan,nan,0.0026801144532665987,nan,nan,0.3357618007230842,nan,nan,0.2445713430598476,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,TiRex,1.4518067071001528,1.4518067071001528,nan,nan,0.011135121256477578,nan,nan,1.2049094186287004,nan,nan,0.6944435209050419,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,TiRex,26189.183511279563,26189.183511279563,125.3613642056783,1.321744836442649,0.6820653407770266,0.984424218821475,18.101060665387852,161.83072486792972,0.9962902055610486,0.7717712406949717,0.6145704862690891,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TiRex,2.7758158710277846e-07,2.7758158710277846e-07,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.000526860121002509,nan,nan,0.0004428110867701004,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,TiRex,5.906315718058047e-17,5.906315718058047e-17,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,7.685255830522526e-09,nan,nan,4.1680416340218845e-09,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,TiRex,2.0440368407041843e-18,2.0440368407041843e-18,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.4296981641955705e-09,nan,nan,1.39774869271451e-09,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,TiRex,0.06009403988074712,0.06009403988074712,nan,nan,0.013170625412462368,nan,nan,0.24514085722446824,nan,nan,0.18971512656111955,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,TiRex,0.9876743519588743,0.9876743519588743,nan,nan,1.7231486839219026,nan,nan,0.9938180678368019,nan,nan,0.5874710200697071,Ocean,1,60

results/tirex/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:09.168801+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.333087+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-7cda1dcb0f2ede3d56af",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T11:02:28.377339+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:34:57.826207+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.652100+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]

results/toto_1_0/all_results.csv

@@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ dataset,model,eval_metrics/MSE[mean],eval_metrics/MSE[0.5],eval_metrics/MAE[0.5]
 binance_btcusdt_1h_close/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.2726949967761062,0.25278511496574274,nan,nan,0.004036603974478904,nan,nan,0.5222020650821922,nan,nan,0.3471267163950083,Finance,1,24
 coingecko_bitcoin_7d_price_usd/1h/short,Toto-1.0,3.6645792269334403,3.8334701114198935,nan,nan,0.018154881072786195,nan,nan,1.9143090729904197,nan,nan,1.3158562118322297,Finance,1,24
 data_gov_sg_sgx_equities_turnover_monthly_turnover_value_million_sgd/1mo/short,Toto-1.0,23019.0460822337,26241.382774419122,124.61535914738973,1.313879348219856,0.6257435399486769,0.9697879270582787,13.780075922721792,151.7202889604212,0.9340465971435247,0.767178555755332,0.6004176198191844,Finance,1,12
-data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Toto-1.0,0.012840454368657432,1.324696472462531e-06,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.11331572869049306,nan,nan,0.0013640951207517992,Climate,1,36
+data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short,Toto-1.0,1.4259638831041896,6.09966053020686e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,1.1941372965887087,nan,nan,0.000281771747513406,Climate,1,36
 data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short,Toto-1.0,0.004726484119358291,5.819349504898946e-09,nan,nan,nan,nan,nan,0.06874942995660611,nan,nan,0.00027537708835586303,Transportation,1,12
 nasa_power_shanghai_hourly_T2M/1h/short,Toto-1.0,0.3781601546771693,0.064105101809067,nan,nan,0.014643988879747117,nan,nan,0.614947277965493,nan,nan,0.19193844973139762,Weather,1,24
 noaa_coops_sf_water_level_water_level/6min/short,Toto-1.0,2.11683930835631,1.9318541444866848,nan,nan,2.4720793021414016,nan,nan,1.4549361870392494,nan,nan,0.6552121422909066,Ocean,1,60

results/toto_1_0/online_meta.json

@@ -4,15 +4,15 @@
     "admitted_at": "2026-06-01T00:00:00Z",
     "evaluation_protocol": "issue-now-score-later",
     "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1",
-    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:38:09.178181+00:00",
+    "evaluated_at": "2026-07-27T11:58:29.339202+00:00",
     "resolved_tasks": [
         {
-            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_taxi_availability_available_taxi_count/5min/short",
-            "task_id": "future-7cda1dcb0f2ede3d56af",
-            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T11:02:28.377339+00:00",
-            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:34:57.849230+00:00",
-            "target_end": "2026-07-26T02:30:00+00:00",
-            "prediction_length": 12,
+            "dataset": "data_gov_sg_singapore_rainfall_5min_rainfall_5min_total/5min/short",
+            "task_id": "future-9dc509284b7e840c9d67",
+            "issued_at": "2026-07-27T08:32:01.706660+00:00",
+            "resolved_at": "2026-07-27T11:55:39.686360+00:00",
+            "target_end": "2026-07-27T10:50:00+00:00",
+            "prediction_length": 36,
             "metric_version": "livehouse-canonical-v1"
         }
     ]