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559c2ff 466043f 559c2ff 3ecd145 466043f 3ecd145 466043f 3ecd145 559c2ff 3ecd145 559c2ff | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 117 118 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 141 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 153 154 155 156 157 158 159 160 161 162 163 164 165 166 167 168 169 170 171 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 182 183 184 185 186 187 188 189 190 191 192 193 194 195 196 197 198 199 200 201 202 203 204 205 206 207 208 209 210 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 219 220 221 222 223 224 225 226 227 228 229 230 231 232 233 234 235 236 237 238 239 240 241 242 243 244 245 246 247 248 249 250 251 252 253 254 255 256 257 258 259 260 261 262 263 264 265 266 267 268 269 270 271 272 273 274 275 276 277 278 279 280 281 282 283 284 285 286 287 288 289 290 291 292 293 294 295 296 297 298 299 300 301 302 303 304 305 306 307 308 309 310 311 312 313 314 315 316 317 318 319 320 321 322 323 324 325 326 327 328 329 330 331 332 333 334 335 336 337 338 339 340 341 342 343 344 345 346 347 348 349 350 351 352 353 354 355 356 357 358 359 360 361 362 363 364 365 366 367 368 369 370 371 372 373 374 375 376 377 378 379 380 381 382 383 384 385 386 387 388 389 390 391 392 393 394 395 396 397 398 399 400 401 402 403 404 405 406 407 408 409 410 411 412 413 414 415 416 417 418 419 420 421 422 423 424 425 426 427 428 429 430 431 432 433 434 435 436 437 438 439 440 441 442 443 444 445 446 447 448 449 450 451 452 453 454 455 456 457 458 459 460 461 462 463 464 465 466 467 468 469 470 471 472 473 474 475 476 477 478 479 480 481 482 483 484 485 486 487 488 489 490 491 492 493 494 495 496 497 498 499 500 501 502 503 504 505 506 507 508 509 510 511 512 513 514 515 516 517 518 519 520 521 522 523 524 525 526 527 528 529 530 531 532 533 534 535 536 537 538 539 540 541 542 543 544 545 546 547 548 549 550 551 552 553 554 555 556 557 558 559 560 561 562 563 564 565 566 567 568 569 570 571 572 573 574 575 576 577 578 579 580 581 582 583 584 585 586 587 588 589 590 591 592 593 594 595 596 597 598 599 600 601 602 603 604 605 606 607 608 609 610 611 612 613 614 615 616 617 618 619 620 621 622 623 624 625 626 627 628 629 630 631 632 633 634 635 636 637 638 639 640 641 642 643 644 645 646 647 648 649 650 651 652 653 654 655 656 657 658 659 660 661 662 663 664 665 666 667 668 669 670 671 672 673 674 675 676 677 678 679 680 681 682 683 684 685 686 687 688 689 690 691 692 693 694 695 696 697 698 699 700 701 702 703 704 705 706 707 708 709 710 711 712 713 714 715 716 717 718 719 720 721 722 723 724 725 726 727 728 729 730 731 732 733 734 735 736 737 738 739 740 741 742 743 | """analysis/textdiff.py β verbatim text delta signals for the Analyst Edge layer.
Pure Python + sentence-transformers, zero LLM calls.
Compares the most recent filing period against the prior period for a ticker
and surfaces verbatim beforeβafter fragments for the most material changes:
1. risk_reworded / risk_added / risk_removed β risk-factor diffs
2. term_frequency β analyst-lexicon count deltas
3. guidance_language_shift β hedge/modal word shifts in MD&A
4. kpi_dropped β metric mentioned prior, absent now
5. compute_lexicon_trend β multi-quarter lexicon term trend (n-quarter monotone run)
Usage:
from analysis.textdiff import compute
signals = compute("NVDA")
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import re
from typing import Optional
import numpy as np
from analysis.signals import QuarterDelta
from storage.sections_db import get_section, get_periods_for_ticker
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Config
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_REWORD_THRESHOLD = 0.70 # cosine similarity: current & prior considered "same risk"
_NEW_RISK_THRESHOLD = 0.40 # below this β new risk (added)
_IDENTICAL_THRESHOLD = 0.93 # above this β unchanged, skip
_MIN_ITEM_WORDS = 25 # minimum words for a text chunk to be considered
# Analyst / macro lexicon to track frequency across periods
_LEXICON: list[tuple[str, str]] = [
# (term, display_label)
(r"\btariff\b", "tariff"),
(r"\bexport control\b", "export control"),
(r"\bheadwind\b", "headwind"),
(r"\buncertainty\b", "uncertainty"),
(r"\bsoftness\b", "softness"),
(r"\bslowing\b", "slowing"),
(r"\bdecelerat\w*", "deceleration"),
(r"\bcautious\b", "cautious"),
(r"\bpressure\b", "pressure"),
(r"\bai\b", "AI"),
(r"\bbuyback\b", "buyback"),
(r"\blayoff\b", "layoff"),
(r"\brestructur\w*", "restructuring"),
(r"\bimpairment\b", "impairment"),
(r"\blitigation\b", "litigation"),
(r"\bchinese? market\b", "China market"),
(r"\bsanction\b", "sanction"),
(r"\brecession\b", "recession"),
]
# Frequency swing that triggers a signal (Γ2 or more, and absolute diff β₯ 2)
_FREQ_RATIO_THRESHOLD = 2.0
_FREQ_ABS_THRESHOLD = 2
# KPI labels that, if absent from the current MD&A, signal a dropped KPI
_KPI_PATTERNS: list[tuple[str, str]] = [
(r"\b(?:gross\s+)?margins?\b", "gross margin"),
(r"\b(?:operating\s+)?margins?\b", "operating margin"),
(r"\bfree\s+cash\s+flow\b", "free cash flow"),
(r"\bdays?\s+sales?\s+outstanding\b|\bdso\b", "DSO"),
(r"\bdays?\s+inventory\s+outstanding\b|\bdio\b", "DIO"),
(r"\bdays?\s+payable\s+outstanding\b|\bdpo\b", "DPO"),
(r"\bshare\s+(?:repurchase|buyback)\b", "share repurchase"),
(r"\bdividend\b", "dividend"),
(r"\bguidance\b", "guidance"),
(r"\bbacklog\b", "backlog"),
(r"\bdeferred\s+revenue\b", "deferred revenue"),
(r"\bnet\s+retention\s+rate\b", "net retention rate"),
]
# Guidance hedge / modality words
_HEDGE_WORDS = [
"expect to grow", "expect growth", "expects to grow", "expects growth",
"anticipate", "plan to", "target", "forecast",
"moderate", "soften", "decline", "reduce", "headwind", "challenge",
"cautious", "uncertain", "volatile",
]
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Model (lazy singleton)
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
_encoder = None
def _get_encoder():
global _encoder
if _encoder is None:
from sentence_transformers import SentenceTransformer
_encoder = SentenceTransformer("all-MiniLM-L6-v2", device="cpu")
return _encoder
def _embed(texts: list[str]) -> np.ndarray:
enc = _get_encoder()
vecs = enc.encode(texts, convert_to_numpy=True, show_progress_bar=False)
# Normalise rows
norms = np.linalg.norm(vecs, axis=1, keepdims=True)
norms = np.where(norms < 1e-8, 1.0, norms)
return vecs / norms
def _cosine(a: np.ndarray, b: np.ndarray) -> float:
return float(np.dot(a, b))
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Text splitters
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _split_into_items(text: str, min_words: int = _MIN_ITEM_WORDS) -> list[str]:
"""Split a section text into logical chunks (risk items / paragraphs).
Uses double-newline paragraph boundaries. Merges short lines (headers)
with the following paragraph. Returns only chunks >= min_words.
"""
raw = re.split(r"\n{2,}", text.strip())
items: list[str] = []
buffer = ""
for para in raw:
para = para.strip()
if not para:
continue
word_count = len(para.split())
if word_count < 8:
# Likely a heading β prepend to next paragraph
buffer = para + " "
else:
combined = (buffer + para).strip()
buffer = ""
if len(combined.split()) >= min_words:
items.append(combined)
if buffer.strip() and len(buffer.split()) >= min_words:
items.append(buffer.strip())
return items
def _split_sentences(text: str) -> list[str]:
"""Simple sentence splitter (no NLTK dependency)."""
sentences = re.split(r"(?<=[.!?])\s+", text)
return [s.strip() for s in sentences if len(s.split()) >= 5]
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Greedy one-to-one item alignment
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _align_items(
current_items: list[str],
prior_items: list[str],
current_vecs: np.ndarray,
prior_vecs: np.ndarray,
) -> tuple[dict[int, int], dict[int, float]]:
"""Greedy one-to-one alignment: each current item β best prior item.
Returns:
matches: {current_idx: prior_idx}
scores: {current_idx: cosine_similarity}
"""
if len(current_items) == 0 or len(prior_items) == 0:
return {}, {}
# pairwise similarities: (n_current Γ n_prior)
sim_matrix = current_vecs @ prior_vecs.T # shape (n_cur, n_pri)
matches: dict[int, int] = {}
scores: dict[int, float] = {}
used_prior: set[int] = set()
# Process current items in order; assign best available prior match
for ci in range(len(current_items)):
row = sim_matrix[ci]
# mask already-used prior indices
masked = [(row[pi], pi) for pi in range(len(prior_items)) if pi not in used_prior]
if not masked:
break
best_score, best_pi = max(masked)
matches[ci] = best_pi
scores[ci] = best_score
if best_score >= _NEW_RISK_THRESHOLD:
used_prior.add(best_pi)
return matches, scores
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Risk factor diff
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_risk_deltas(
current_text: str,
prior_text: str,
period_from: str,
period_to: str,
form_type: str,
) -> list[QuarterDelta]:
"""Align risk-factor items across two periods and classify changes."""
if not current_text or not prior_text:
return []
current_items = _split_into_items(current_text)
prior_items = _split_into_items(prior_text)
if not current_items or not prior_items:
return []
current_vecs = _embed(current_items)
prior_vecs = _embed(prior_items)
matches, scores = _align_items(current_items, prior_items, current_vecs, prior_vecs)
matched_prior_indices: set[int] = set()
deltas: list[QuarterDelta] = []
source_lit = "10-K" if "10-K" in form_type.upper() else "10-Q"
for ci, item in enumerate(current_items):
pi = matches.get(ci)
score = scores.get(ci, 0.0)
if pi is not None and score >= _NEW_RISK_THRESHOLD:
matched_prior_indices.add(pi)
if score >= _IDENTICAL_THRESHOLD:
continue # unchanged β not interesting
# Reworded: significant textual change
before = _truncate(prior_items[pi], 120)
after = _truncate(item, 120)
sig = "HIGH" if score < 0.80 else "MEDIUM"
deltas.append(QuarterDelta(
kind="risk_reworded",
period_from=period_from,
period_to=period_to,
before_text=before,
after_text=after,
computed_metric=f"similarity {score:.2f}",
source=source_lit,
significance=sig,
term="",
))
else:
# New risk β not matched in prior
after = _truncate(item, 120)
deltas.append(QuarterDelta(
kind="risk_added",
period_from=period_from,
period_to=period_to,
before_text="",
after_text=after,
computed_metric="",
source=source_lit,
significance="HIGH",
term="",
))
# Removed: prior items not matched by any current item
for pi, item in enumerate(prior_items):
if pi not in matched_prior_indices:
before = _truncate(item, 120)
deltas.append(QuarterDelta(
kind="risk_removed",
period_from=period_from,
period_to=period_to,
before_text=before,
after_text="",
computed_metric="",
source=source_lit,
significance="MEDIUM",
term="",
))
# Keep at most 6 highest-significance deltas to avoid flooding the prompt
order = {"HIGH": 0, "MEDIUM": 1, "LOW": 2}
deltas.sort(key=lambda d: (order[d.significance], d.kind))
return deltas[:6]
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Analyst-lexicon frequency deltas
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_lexicon_deltas(
current_text: str,
prior_text: str,
period_from: str,
period_to: str,
form_type: str,
) -> list[QuarterDelta]:
"""Count analyst-lexicon term occurrences and flag large swings."""
if not current_text or not prior_text:
return []
source_lit = "10-K" if "10-K" in form_type.upper() else "10-Q"
cur_lower = current_text.lower()
pri_lower = prior_text.lower()
deltas: list[QuarterDelta] = []
for pattern, label in _LEXICON:
cur_count = len(re.findall(pattern, cur_lower, re.IGNORECASE))
pri_count = len(re.findall(pattern, pri_lower, re.IGNORECASE))
if cur_count == 0 and pri_count == 0:
continue
abs_diff = abs(cur_count - pri_count)
if abs_diff < _FREQ_ABS_THRESHOLD:
continue
# Require at least Γ2 change in either direction
max_count = max(cur_count, pri_count)
min_count = min(cur_count, pri_count) or 0.5 # avoid div-by-zero
ratio = max_count / min_count
if ratio < _FREQ_RATIO_THRESHOLD:
continue
direction = "up" if cur_count > pri_count else "down"
pct = (cur_count - pri_count) / (pri_count or 1) * 100
metric = f"{pri_count}β{cur_count} occurrences ({pct:+.0f}%)"
# Significance: HIGH if ratio β₯ 3 or abs_diff β₯ 5
sig = "HIGH" if (ratio >= 3.0 or abs_diff >= 5) else "MEDIUM"
# Extract a context sentence for the term (from current or prior)
after_ctx = _find_context_sentence(current_text, pattern) if cur_count > 0 else ""
before_ctx = _find_context_sentence(prior_text, pattern) if pri_count > 0 else ""
deltas.append(QuarterDelta(
kind="term_frequency",
period_from=period_from,
period_to=period_to,
before_text=before_ctx,
after_text=after_ctx,
computed_metric=metric,
source=source_lit,
significance=sig,
term=label,
))
deltas.sort(key=lambda d: {"HIGH": 0, "MEDIUM": 1}.get(d.significance, 2))
return deltas[:5]
def _find_context_sentence(text: str, pattern: str) -> str:
"""Return the first sentence containing a match for `pattern`."""
sentences = _split_sentences(text)
for sent in sentences:
if re.search(pattern, sent, re.IGNORECASE):
return _truncate(sent, 100)
return ""
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Multi-quarter lexicon trend detection
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _detect_trend(counts: list[int]) -> str | None:
"""Detect the longest strictly monotone run at the tail of a count series.
Args:
counts: term occurrence counts in **chronological order** (oldest first).
Returns:
``"rising N quarters"`` if the last Nβ₯3 values are strictly increasing,
``"falling N quarters"`` if the last Nβ₯3 values are strictly decreasing,
``None`` otherwise.
Examples:
>>> _detect_trend([1, 3, 5, 8])
'rising 4 quarters'
>>> _detect_trend([8, 5, 3, 1])
'falling 4 quarters'
>>> _detect_trend([1, 5, 2, 4, 6])
'rising 3 quarters'
>>> _detect_trend([1, 2, 2, 4]) # plateau breaks strict run
>>> _detect_trend([1, 3]) # only 2 values
"""
if len(counts) < 3:
return None
# Walk backwards from the end to find the longest tail run
# We track whether the tail is rising or falling from the last step
n = len(counts)
# Determine direction of the final step
if counts[-1] > counts[-2]:
direction = "rising"
elif counts[-1] < counts[-2]:
direction = "falling"
else:
return None # last step is flat β no strict run
# Extend the run backwards as far as the same strict direction holds
run_length = 2 # we already know the last pair qualifies
for i in range(n - 2, 0, -1):
if direction == "rising" and counts[i] > counts[i - 1]:
run_length += 1
elif direction == "falling" and counts[i] < counts[i - 1]:
run_length += 1
else:
break # run ends here
if run_length < 3:
return None
return f"{direction} {run_length} quarters"
def compute_lexicon_trend(ticker: str, n: int = 4) -> list[QuarterDelta]:
"""Detect multi-quarter monotone trends for each analyst-lexicon term.
Looks back up to *n* 10-Q periods and surfaces terms whose occurrence
count has been strictly rising or falling for 3+ consecutive quarters β
a more durable signal than a single quarter-over-quarter spike.
Args:
ticker: uppercase ticker symbol.
n: maximum number of recent 10-Q periods to examine (default 4).
Returns:
Up to 5 ``QuarterDelta`` objects (HIGH-significance first), one per
term that shows a multi-quarter trend. Returns ``[]`` if fewer than
3 periods are available or no trends are detected.
"""
ticker = ticker.upper()
periods = get_periods_for_ticker(ticker, form_type="10-Q")
if len(periods) < 3:
return []
n = min(n, len(periods))
# periods[:n] is newest-first; reverse for chronological order
selected = list(reversed(periods[:n])) # [oldest, ..., newest]
# Pre-load section text for each period
period_texts: list[str] = []
for period in selected:
mda = get_section(ticker, period, "mda") or ""
risk = get_section(ticker, period, "risk_factors") or ""
period_texts.append((mda + "\n\n" + risk).strip())
deltas: list[QuarterDelta] = []
for pattern, label in _LEXICON:
counts = [
len(re.findall(pattern, text, re.IGNORECASE))
for text in period_texts
]
trend = _detect_trend(counts)
if trend is None:
continue
# Build the QuarterDelta
oldest_period = selected[0] # oldest of the n selected (chronological)
newest_period = selected[-1] # newest of the n selected (chronological)
first_count = counts[0]
last_count = counts[-1]
metric = (
f"{first_count}β{last_count} occurrences over "
f"{oldest_period}β{newest_period} ({trend})"
)
oldest_text = period_texts[0]
newest_text = period_texts[-1]
before_ctx = _find_context_sentence(oldest_text, pattern) if first_count > 0 else ""
after_ctx = _find_context_sentence(newest_text, pattern) if last_count > 0 else ""
# Significance: HIGH for runs of 4+, MEDIUM for 3
run_quarters = int(trend.split()[1])
sig = "HIGH" if run_quarters >= 4 else "MEDIUM"
deltas.append(QuarterDelta(
kind="term_frequency",
period_from=oldest_period,
period_to=newest_period,
before_text=before_ctx,
after_text=after_ctx,
computed_metric=metric,
source="10-Q",
significance=sig,
term=label,
))
# HIGH first, then MEDIUM; cap at 5
deltas.sort(key=lambda d: {"HIGH": 0, "MEDIUM": 1}.get(d.significance, 2))
return deltas[:5]
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Guidance / MD&A language shift
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_guidance_shifts(
current_mda: str,
prior_mda: str,
period_from: str,
period_to: str,
form_type: str,
) -> list[QuarterDelta]:
"""Detect forward-looking language becoming more cautious or more bullish."""
if not current_mda or not prior_mda:
return []
source_lit = "10-K" if "10-K" in form_type.upper() else "10-Q"
# Extract sentences that contain guidance / forward-looking language
cur_fwd = _forward_looking_sentences(current_mda)
pri_fwd = _forward_looking_sentences(prior_mda)
if not cur_fwd or not pri_fwd:
return []
# Count hedge words in guidance sentences
cur_hedge = _count_hedge(cur_fwd)
pri_hedge = _count_hedge(pri_fwd)
abs_diff = abs(cur_hedge - pri_hedge)
if abs_diff < 2:
return []
direction = "more cautious" if cur_hedge > pri_hedge else "more confident"
pct = (cur_hedge - pri_hedge) / (pri_hedge or 1) * 100
metric = f"{pri_hedge}β{cur_hedge} hedge-word occurrences ({pct:+.0f}%) β {direction}"
# Pick most representative sentence from each period
before_sent = _pick_representative(pri_fwd, prior_mda)
after_sent = _pick_representative(cur_fwd, current_mda)
sig = "HIGH" if abs_diff >= 5 else "MEDIUM"
return [QuarterDelta(
kind="guidance_language_shift",
period_from=period_from,
period_to=period_to,
before_text=before_sent,
after_text=after_sent,
computed_metric=metric,
source=source_lit,
significance=sig,
term="guidance tone",
)]
_FWD_PATTERNS = re.compile(
r"\b(expect|anticipate|forecast|guidance|outlook|project|target|plan\s+to|"
r"will\s+(?:grow|increase|decrease|decline|moderate)|believe\s+(?:we|our))\b",
re.IGNORECASE,
)
def _forward_looking_sentences(text: str) -> list[str]:
sentences = _split_sentences(text)
return [s for s in sentences if _FWD_PATTERNS.search(s)]
def _count_hedge(sentences: list[str]) -> int:
joined = " ".join(sentences).lower()
return sum(1 for w in _HEDGE_WORDS if w in joined)
def _pick_representative(sentences: list[str], full_text: str) -> str:
"""Return the shortest guidance sentence (most quotable) that contains a hedge word."""
hedge_sents = [
s for s in sentences
if any(h in s.lower() for h in _HEDGE_WORDS)
]
pool = hedge_sents if hedge_sents else sentences
pool_sorted = sorted(pool, key=lambda s: len(s.split()))
if pool_sorted:
return _truncate(pool_sorted[0], 100)
return _truncate(sentences[0], 100) if sentences else ""
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Dropped KPI detection
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute_kpi_drops(
current_mda: str,
prior_mda: str,
period_from: str,
period_to: str,
form_type: str,
) -> list[QuarterDelta]:
"""Flag a KPI / metric label that appears in prior MD&A but not in current."""
if not current_mda or not prior_mda:
return []
source_lit = "10-K" if "10-K" in form_type.upper() else "10-Q"
cur_lower = current_mda.lower()
pri_lower = prior_mda.lower()
deltas: list[QuarterDelta] = []
for pattern, label in _KPI_PATTERNS:
in_current = bool(re.search(pattern, cur_lower, re.IGNORECASE))
in_prior = bool(re.search(pattern, pri_lower, re.IGNORECASE))
if in_prior and not in_current:
ctx = _find_context_sentence(prior_mda, pattern)
deltas.append(QuarterDelta(
kind="kpi_dropped",
period_from=period_from,
period_to=period_to,
before_text=ctx,
after_text="",
computed_metric=f"'{label}' mentioned in {period_from} MD&A, absent from {period_to}",
source=source_lit,
significance="MEDIUM",
term=label,
))
return deltas[:3]
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Helpers
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def _truncate(text: str, max_words: int) -> str:
words = text.split()
if len(words) <= max_words:
return text
return " ".join(words[:max_words]) + "β¦"
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
# Main entry point
# ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
def compute(ticker: str, current_period: Optional[str] = None) -> list[QuarterDelta]:
"""Compute all text delta signals for a ticker.
Compares the current period (latest ingested 10-Q) against the prior
period (previous 10-Q). Returns an empty list if sections are missing
or an error occurs β never raises.
Args:
ticker: uppercase ticker symbol.
current_period: override the current period (default: latest in DB).
"""
try:
return _compute_inner(ticker, current_period)
except Exception as exc:
import sys
print(f"[textdiff] Error computing deltas for {ticker}: {exc}", file=sys.stderr)
return []
def _compute_inner(ticker: str, current_period: Optional[str]) -> list[QuarterDelta]:
ticker = ticker.upper()
# Determine current and prior periods (10-Q only for QoQ comparison)
periods = get_periods_for_ticker(ticker, form_type="10-Q")
if len(periods) < 2:
return []
period_to = current_period if current_period else periods[0]
# Find the prior period (the one just before period_to in the list)
if period_to in periods:
idx = periods.index(period_to)
if idx + 1 >= len(periods):
return []
period_from = periods[idx + 1]
else:
period_from = periods[1]
# Determine form_type for the current period (need it for source label)
# Look for any section stored for this period to infer form_type
# Default to 10-Q since we filtered above
form_type = "10-Q"
# Load sections
cur_risk = get_section(ticker, period_to, "risk_factors") or ""
pri_risk = get_section(ticker, period_from, "risk_factors") or ""
cur_mda = get_section(ticker, period_to, "mda") or ""
pri_mda = get_section(ticker, period_from, "mda") or ""
if not cur_risk and not cur_mda:
return []
all_deltas: list[QuarterDelta] = []
# 1. Risk factors diff
if cur_risk and pri_risk:
all_deltas.extend(compute_risk_deltas(cur_risk, pri_risk, period_from, period_to, form_type))
# 2. Lexicon frequency deltas (combined mda + risk text for broader coverage)
cur_full = (cur_mda + "\n\n" + cur_risk).strip()
pri_full = (pri_mda + "\n\n" + pri_risk).strip()
if cur_full and pri_full:
all_deltas.extend(compute_lexicon_deltas(cur_full, pri_full, period_from, period_to, form_type))
# 3. Guidance language shift (MD&A only)
if cur_mda and pri_mda:
all_deltas.extend(compute_guidance_shifts(cur_mda, pri_mda, period_from, period_to, form_type))
# 4. Dropped KPIs
if cur_mda and pri_mda:
all_deltas.extend(compute_kpi_drops(cur_mda, pri_mda, period_from, period_to, form_type))
# 5. Multi-quarter lexicon trends (ticker-level, not period-pair)
trend_deltas = compute_lexicon_trend(ticker)
all_deltas.extend(trend_deltas)
# Prefer trend signals over QoQ signals for the same term:
# collect terms that have a multi-quarter trend signal and remove any
# plain QoQ term_frequency delta for the same term.
trend_terms: set[str] = {
d.term
for d in trend_deltas
if d.kind == "term_frequency" and "quarters" in (d.computed_metric or "")
}
if trend_terms:
all_deltas = [
d for d in all_deltas
if not (
d.kind == "term_frequency"
and d.term in trend_terms
and "quarters" not in (d.computed_metric or "")
)
]
# Deduplicate and sort: HIGH first, then MEDIUM, then LOW
seen: set[str] = set()
deduped: list[QuarterDelta] = []
for d in all_deltas:
key = f"{d.kind}:{d.term}:{d.before_text[:40]}"
if key not in seen:
seen.add(key)
deduped.append(d)
order = {"HIGH": 0, "MEDIUM": 1, "LOW": 2}
deduped.sort(key=lambda d: (order[d.significance], d.kind))
return deduped
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