File size: 1,309 Bytes
7994c82 16d9b4f 7994c82 16d9b4f 7994c82 | 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 | # YarrowLab
Research and models for event forecasting.
## Models
- [`yarrow-forecast`](https://huggingface.co/YarrowLab/yarrow-forecast) —
forecasts U.S. party primary and nomination outcomes. Given a question,
its resolution criteria, and the evidence available as of a stated date,
one forward pass returns a calibrated probability in [0, 1].
Out of sample on 150 settled questions across 33 election nights, Brier
score is 0.175–0.185, against 0.239 for the historical base rate.
[CC BY-NC-4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/).
## Research
Post-training work on **bounded deviation from a statistical prior**.
Instead of asking a model to output a probability directly, we train it to
output `Δ` — a bounded deviation from a prior `p₀` computed upstream from
reference-class statistics — plus an attribution category for *why* the
prior might be wrong, and an evidence span supporting that attribution.
The final probability `p = σ(logit(p₀) + Δ)` is composed in code; the model
never sees or touches market prices.
- [`yarrow-delta-sft-v1-smoke`](https://huggingface.co/YarrowLab/yarrow-delta-sft-v1-smoke) —
a pipeline-validation checkpoint (LoRA over a randomly initialized tiny
model). Confirms the SFT loop runs end to end; not a trained model.
|