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eure: 2883 nodes, 3358 edges
risle: 1642 nodes, 1873 edges
Combined graph: 4525 nodes, 5231 edges
Real discharge coverage: 8923 / 23136325
Standardized 'discharge': train-period mean=2809.26, std=3286.51 (fit on real training-period values only)
Standardized 'groundwater_level': train-period mean=102.62, std=39.37 (fit on real training-period values only)
Physics indices: 28 confluences, 696 braid pairs, 5231 routing edges
Training windows: X=(4903, 30, 4525, 4), Y=(4903, 4525, 10)
Train examples: 3257, val: 730, test: 916
Using device: cpu
Physics loss weights: {'confluence': 1.0, 'split_rejoin': 1.0, 'routing': 2.0}
epoch 1/100: train loss = 0.8412, val supervised loss = 1.1929 (best)
epoch 2/100: train loss = 0.7969, val supervised loss = 1.1486 (best)
epoch 3/100: train loss = 0.7908, val supervised loss = 1.1795
epoch 4/100: train loss = 0.7955, val supervised loss = 1.1162 (best)
epoch 5/100: train loss = 0.7808, val supervised loss = 1.1066 (best)
epoch 6/100: train loss = 0.7651, val supervised loss = 1.1549
epoch 7/100: train loss = 0.7411, val supervised loss = 1.0764 (best)
epoch 8/100: train loss = 0.7027, val supervised loss = 0.9924 (best)
epoch 9/100: train loss = 0.6924, val supervised loss = 1.3795
epoch 10/100: train loss = 0.6889, val supervised loss = 1.0943
epoch 11/100: train loss = 0.6836, val supervised loss = 1.0572
epoch 12/100: train loss = 0.6827, val supervised loss = 0.9846 (best)
epoch 13/100: train loss = 0.6763, val supervised loss = 0.9921
epoch 14/100: train loss = 0.6743, val supervised loss = 1.0505
epoch 15/100: train loss = 0.6750, val supervised loss = 1.0760
epoch 16/100: train loss = 0.6751, val supervised loss = 1.0425
epoch 17/100: train loss = 0.6696, val supervised loss = 0.9860
epoch 18/100: train loss = 0.6670, val supervised loss = 1.0494
epoch 19/100: train loss = 0.6643, val supervised loss = 1.0208
epoch 20/100: train loss = 0.6631, val supervised loss = 1.0441
epoch 21/100: train loss = 0.6619, val supervised loss = 1.0921
epoch 22/100: train loss = 0.6603, val supervised loss = 1.0351
stopped early at epoch 22
Best validation loss: 0.9846
Saved model to datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/model.pt
eure: 2883 real nodes, 3358 real edges (full reach graph)
eure: reduced to 50 node(s) (real gauges + confluences/braids only, no virtual infill nodes), 67 collapsed edge(s), real connectivity preserved
risle: 1642 real nodes, 1873 real edges (full reach graph)
risle: reduced to 50 node(s) (real gauges + confluences/braids only, no virtual infill nodes), 86 collapsed edge(s), real connectivity preserved
Combined graph: 100 nodes, 153 edges
Real discharge coverage: 8923 / 511300
Standardized 'discharge': train-period mean=2809.26, std=3286.51 (fit on real training-period values only)
Standardized 'groundwater_level': train-period mean=106.01, std=39.00 (fit on real training-period values only)
Physics indices: 11 confluences, 1 braid pairs, 153 routing edges
Training windows: X=(4903, 30, 100, 4), Y=(4903, 100, 10)
Train examples: 3257, val: 730, test: 916
Using device: cpu
Physics loss weights: {'confluence': 1.0, 'split_rejoin': 1.0, 'routing': 2.0}
epoch 1/100: train loss = 1.1519, val supervised loss = 1.4610 (best)
epoch 2/100: train loss = 0.7972, val supervised loss = 1.3024 (best)
epoch 3/100: train loss = 0.7899, val supervised loss = 1.2201 (best)
epoch 4/100: train loss = 0.7846, val supervised loss = 1.2223
epoch 5/100: train loss = 0.7906, val supervised loss = 1.2654
epoch 6/100: train loss = 0.8115, val supervised loss = 1.1744 (best)
epoch 7/100: train loss = 0.7939, val supervised loss = 1.2215
epoch 8/100: train loss = 0.7976, val supervised loss = 1.2869
epoch 9/100: train loss = 0.8045, val supervised loss = 1.2263
epoch 10/100: train loss = 0.7929, val supervised loss = 1.3447
epoch 11/100: train loss = 0.7906, val supervised loss = 1.2693
epoch 12/100: train loss = 0.7902, val supervised loss = 1.2461
epoch 13/100: train loss = 0.7915, val supervised loss = 1.1545 (best)
epoch 14/100: train loss = 0.7886, val supervised loss = 1.2151
epoch 15/100: train loss = 0.8031, val supervised loss = 1.1819
epoch 16/100: train loss = 0.7914, val supervised loss = 1.1730
epoch 17/100: train loss = 0.7864, val supervised loss = 1.1729
epoch 18/100: train loss = 0.7863, val supervised loss = 1.1727
epoch 19/100: train loss = 0.7858, val supervised loss = 1.3309
epoch 20/100: train loss = 0.7856, val supervised loss = 1.2335
epoch 21/100: train loss = 0.7862, val supervised loss = 1.1961
epoch 22/100: train loss = 0.7830, val supervised loss = 1.1632
epoch 23/100: train loss = 0.7835, val supervised loss = 1.2377
stopped early at epoch 23
Best validation loss: 1.1545
Saved model to datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/model.pt
Naive baseline (predict the training-period mean, i.e. 0 in standardized units): 2.5756
Model beats the naive baseline by 55.2% -- real, not just baseline-matching skill
(.venv) macbook@austen:~/Desktop/miradi/gnn/PoC_v1 python -m scripts.train_spatiotemporal_gnn --data-root datasets --train-end 2025-06-30 --val-end 2025-12-31
eure: joined real channel width for 2805/3358 edge(s) from datasets/edge_widths.csv
eure: 2883 real nodes, 3358 real edges (full reach graph)
eure: reduced to 50 node(s) (real gauges + confluences/braids only, no virtual infill nodes), 67 collapsed edge(s), real connectivity preserved
risle: joined real channel width for 1488/1873 edge(s) from datasets/edge_widths.csv
risle: 1642 real nodes, 1873 real edges (full reach graph)
risle: reduced to 50 node(s) (real gauges + confluences/braids only, no virtual infill nodes), 86 collapsed edge(s), real connectivity preserved
Combined graph: 100 nodes, 153 edges
Real discharge coverage: 8923 / 511300
Real water-level coverage: 21947 / 511300
Real catchment area available for 16/100 node(s)
Fitted specific-discharge coefficient k=0.0766876 on 2603 real (Q, precip, area) triple(s) from gauged stations, training period only
Real precipitation-based discharge estimate available for 16496 node-date value(s) (input feature, never a target)
Standardized 'discharge': train-period mean=4168.71, std=5311.31 (fit on real training-period values only)
Standardized 'groundwater_level': train-period mean=105.86, std=39.03 (fit on real training-period values only)
Standardized 'precipitation': train-period mean=1.78, std=4.00 (fit on real training-period values only)
Standardized 'estimated_discharge': train-period mean=3659.35, std=7011.12 (fit on real training-period values only)
Standardized 'waterlevel': train-period mean=402.00, std=590.37 (fit on real training-period values only)
Physics indices: 11 confluences, 1 braid pairs, 153 routing edges
Training windows: X=(4903, 30, 100, 8), Y=(4903, 100, 10)
Water-level targets at the same 4903 anchor dates: Y_H=(4903, 100, 10), 215936 real value(s)
Real forecast precipitation available for 61830 (example, node, horizon) value(s) -- real coverage is partial by design (only horizons [1, 2, 3, 5, 7], only from 2024-03-01 onward)
Train examples: 4534, val: 184, test: 185
Using device: cpu
Physics loss weights: {'confluence': 1.0, 'split_rejoin': 1.0, 'routing': 2.0, 'manning': 1.0, 'water_balance': 1.0}
Real precipitation available -- water balance physics enabled (channels 4/5)
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 24):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.06501, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 10/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 30/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1335, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0283629, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=10, max=25, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.449464, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.53244, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.179025, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 105.943, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 23):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.06501, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 26/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 50/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1334, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0283612, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=4, max=13, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.0549348, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.367937, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.193409, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 105.548, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 22):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.06501, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 5/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 51/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1334, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0283658, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=6.6, max=20.8, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.191883, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 1.01059, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.253062, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 105.685, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 21):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.06501, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 10/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 37/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1335, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.028364, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=8.6, max=19.7, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.204664, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.52279, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.156358, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 105.698, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 20):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.065, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 20/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 50/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1334, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0283685, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=-9.537e-07, max=6.2, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.360339, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.562039, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.346614, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 105.853, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 19):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.06501, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 10/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 30/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1334, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0283629, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=-9.537e-07, max=0.4, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.914814, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.589836, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.211875, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 106.408, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 18):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.065, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 20/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 50/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1337, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0283742, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=10.6, max=21, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.357288, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.548801, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.431054, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 105.851, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 17):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.06501, max=14.41
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.16, max=5.462
[debug] Y_i real value count: 10/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 22/1000
[debug] confluence term: 81.1335, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000716772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 24.3307, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0283632, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=4314, max=7186, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=9, max=16.5, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.206747, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.586394, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.193314, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 105.7, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 16):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1888, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 22/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 43/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.8818, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.935, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.032642, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3637, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=0.6, max=2, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.362139, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.540033, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.188887, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.2119, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 15):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.189, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 9/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 59/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.882, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.935, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0326606, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3637, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=5.4, max=21.4, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.464889, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.478132, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.300983, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.3149, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 14):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2166, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 30/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 40/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.8827, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.9346, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0341154, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3549, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=-9.537e-07, max=1, n_real=20
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.622464, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.525364, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.151529, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.4742, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 13):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1888, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 9/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 59/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.8818, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.935, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0326413, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3637, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=2, max=16.7, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.58037, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.521639, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.299622, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.4302, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 12):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1888, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 25/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 49/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.8818, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.935, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0326409, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3637, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=4.4, max=12.3, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.240601, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.300028, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.206646, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.0904, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 11):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.189, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 14/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 47/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.882, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.9349, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0326483, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3637, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=5.6, max=13.5, n_real=19
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.471311, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.766813, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.201794, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.3212, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 10):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2775, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 29/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 46/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.8864, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.935, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0402923, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3402, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=0.2, max=6.3, n_real=20
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.522789, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.438725, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.157988, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.3848, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 9):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1889, max=12.57
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1493, max=4.844
[debug] Y_i real value count: 20/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 50/1000
[debug] confluence term: 58.8818, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000370772, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 17.935, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.032641, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=3637, max=6725, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=0.4, max=4.6, n_real=13
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.431347, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.478395, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.352821, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 77.2811, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 8):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2806, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 13/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 45/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6323, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8064, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0413045, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2999, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=2.4, max=5.2, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.174067, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.376802, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.258603, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 53.6543, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 7):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2806, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 29/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 50/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6323, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8064, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0413093, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2999, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=-9.537e-07, max=0.6, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 1, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.350273, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.168079, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 54.4802, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 6):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2807, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 10/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 30/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6323, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8064, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0413074, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2999, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=19.7, max=92.5, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.810393, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.380917, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.157874, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 54.2906, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 5):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2806, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 29/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 41/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6323, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8063, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0413193, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2999, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=-9.537e-07, max=0.6, n_real=20
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.601746, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.353307, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.20659, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 54.0818, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 4):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2806, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 10/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 59/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6322, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8064, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0413075, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2999, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=0.6, max=24.7, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.546189, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.43953, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.320977, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 54.0264, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 3):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2806, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 27/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 49/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6323, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8064, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0413097, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2999, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=3.6, max=26.3, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.131423, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.359537, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.187993, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 53.6116, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 2):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.2806, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 20/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 50/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6323, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8064, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0413066, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2999, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=0.6, max=2.4, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.471807, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.415129, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.417917, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 53.952, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 1):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.3152, max=10.76
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1475, max=4.197
[debug] Y_i real value count: 30/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 40/1000
[debug] confluence term: 40.6364, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000253812, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 12.8064, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.044186, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2847, max=5719, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=-9.537e-07, max=0.4, n_real=20
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.972517, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.357991, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.150745, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 54.4598, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] example (epoch 1, remaining debug budget 0):
[debug] Q_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.3686, max=9.093
[debug] H_pred_quantiles: finite_all=True, min=-0.1423, max=4.156
[debug] Y_i real value count: 10/1000
[debug] Y_H_i real value count: 30/1000
[debug] confluence term: 26.4635, finite=True
[debug] split_rejoin term: 0.000407118, finite=True
[debug] manning term: 8.60421, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of confluence term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of split_rejoin term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of manning term: wrt Q_median finite=True, wrt H_median finite=True
[debug] routing term: 0.0488792, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of routing term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] Q_short_block_avg (real L/s): min=2472, max=5445, finite_all=True
[debug] recent_precip_sum_mm (real mm): min=0.2, max=1.2, n_real=14
[debug] catchment_area_km2: n_real=16, min=149, max=5935
[debug] water_balance term (pre-weight): 0.633285, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of water_balance term: wrt Q_median finite=True
[debug] supervised_Q: 0.290417, finite=True
[debug] supervised_H: 0.157283, finite=True
[debug] physics total: 35.7503, finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_Q: wrt Q_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] GRADIENT of supervised_H: wrt H_pred_quantiles finite=True
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=794.492, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 1/100: train loss = 1.4012, val Q loss = 0.1503, val H loss = 0.0783, val combined = 0.2286 (best)
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=420.515, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 2/100: train loss = 0.7416, val Q loss = 0.1521, val H loss = 0.0698, val combined = 0.2219 (best)
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=418.261, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 3/100: train loss = 0.7377, val Q loss = 0.1614, val H loss = 0.0744, val combined = 0.2358
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=416.014, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 4/100: train loss = 0.7337, val Q loss = 0.1463, val H loss = 0.0757, val combined = 0.2221
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=418.748, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 5/100: train loss = 0.7385, val Q loss = 0.1590, val H loss = 0.0767, val combined = 0.2357
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=414.083, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 6/100: train loss = 0.7303, val Q loss = 0.1702, val H loss = 0.0769, val combined = 0.2471
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=413.883, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 7/100: train loss = 0.7300, val Q loss = 0.1551, val H loss = 0.0756, val combined = 0.2307
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=412.084, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 8/100: train loss = 0.7268, val Q loss = 0.1655, val H loss = 0.0748, val combined = 0.2404
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=411.92, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 9/100: train loss = 0.7265, val Q loss = 0.1620, val H loss = 0.0783, val combined = 0.2403
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=411.669, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 10/100: train loss = 0.7260, val Q loss = 0.1568, val H loss = 0.0724, val combined = 0.2293
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=412.194, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 11/100: train loss = 0.7270, val Q loss = 0.1463, val H loss = 0.0748, val combined = 0.2211 (best)
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=405.851, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 12/100: train loss = 0.7158, val Q loss = 0.1439, val H loss = 0.0649, val combined = 0.2088 (best)
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=415.095, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 13/100: train loss = 0.7321, val Q loss = 0.1703, val H loss = 0.0836, val combined = 0.2540
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=416.673, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 14/100: train loss = 0.7349, val Q loss = 0.1684, val H loss = 0.0829, val combined = 0.2513
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=417.424, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 15/100: train loss = 0.7362, val Q loss = 0.1841, val H loss = 0.0858, val combined = 0.2699
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=414.205, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 16/100: train loss = 0.7305, val Q loss = 0.1647, val H loss = 0.0795, val combined = 0.2441
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=411.842, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 17/100: train loss = 0.7264, val Q loss = 0.1664, val H loss = 0.0793, val combined = 0.2457
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=411.079, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 18/100: train loss = 0.7250, val Q loss = 0.1611, val H loss = 0.0809, val combined = 0.2420
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=411.693, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 19/100: train loss = 0.7261, val Q loss = 0.1516, val H loss = 0.0746, val combined = 0.2261
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=411.414, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 20/100: train loss = 0.7256, val Q loss = 0.1677, val H loss = 0.0796, val combined = 0.2473
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=411.121, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 21/100: train loss = 0.7251, val Q loss = 0.1586, val H loss = 0.0812, val combined = 0.2398
[debug] raw accounting: n_batches=567, total_loss=410.599, len(train_loader)=567
epoch 22/100: train loss = 0.7242, val Q loss = 0.1534, val H loss = 0.0750, val combined = 0.2283
stopped early at epoch 22
Best validation loss: 0.2088
Learned Manning's roughness n = 0.9932 (0.03 was the initialization; real natural streams typically fall in ~0.025-0.1 -- a value drifting far outside that range is worth investigating, not just noting)
Learned bank height = 0.10m (2.5m was the initialization, an assumption with no real measured data behind it -- compare this against real rating-curve data for the gauges with one, if the model's learned value looks implausible for these specific rivers)
Saved model to datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/model.pt
Naive baseline, discharge (real training-period empirical quantiles [0.5, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99]): 0.1728
Naive baseline, water level (real training-period empirical quantiles [0.5, 0.9, 0.95, 0.99]): 0.1276
Discharge: model beats the naive baseline by 16.7% -- real, not just baseline-matching skill
Water level: model beats the naive baseline by 49.1% -- real, not just baseline-matching skill
(.venv) macbook@austen:~/Desktop/miradi/gnn/PoC_v1 python -m scripts.evaluation.evaluate_flood_detection --data-root datasets --train-end 2025-06-30 --val-end 2025-12-31
Loaded 125 real event(s) across 6 station(s)
eure: joined real channel width for 2805/3358 edge(s) from datasets/edge_widths.csv
risle: joined real channel width for 1488/1873 edge(s) from datasets/edge_widths.csv
Fitted specific-discharge coefficient k=0.0766876 on 2603 real (Q, precip, area) triple(s) from gauged stations, training period only
Evaluating on 185 real held-out test example(s)
Real forecast precipitation available for 13320 test (example, node, horizon) value(s)
Loaded trained model from datasets/spatiotemporal_gnn/model.pt
Flagging a real event when the model's predicted 0.95 quantile exceeds that station's real threshold -- not the median, since flood risk is a tail question: "is there a real 5% chance this exceeds the threshold", not "what's the single most likely value."
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Flood-detection confusion matrix by lead time (real held-out test data)
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horizon_days tp fp fn tn precision recall
1 15 351 23 721 0.040984 0.394737
2 17 381 21 691 0.042714 0.447368
3 24 472 14 600 0.048387 0.631579
4 0 0 38 1072 NaN 0.000000
5 21 457 17 615 0.043933 0.552632
10 0 0 38 1072 NaN 0.000000
30 0 0 38 1072 NaN 0.000000
60 0 0 0 1110 NaN NaN
90 0 0 0 1110 NaN NaN
180 0 0 0 1110 NaN NaN
Saved to datasets/flood_detection_evaluation.csv |