- whale_event_study.py: every >= 1,000 BTC transaction since Feb 2022
(BigQuery crypto_bitcoin, 268,446 rows) against 5-minute BTC bars, by
largest-recipient tier, with a vectorised event study and an hourly
lead-lag test that removes the hour-of-week pattern first.
- exchange_flow_study.py: the same tests on transactions touching 22
publicly labelled exchange wallets, split into inflow, outflow and
internal moves. Inflows follow volatility (t = 7.5) far more than they
lead it (t = 2.3, +0.02 pp R2).
- Colab cells that pull both datasets from BigQuery, and the checked
exchange address list.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
