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12 days ago
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Add fig10: blockchain activity against the Fed, on one daily scale
Spike days (top 5% of weekday-adjusted daily jumps) in active addresses, transaction count and hash rate, against Fed and CPI release days. Each day's move is scaled by the prior 30 days and compared with the same weekday in other weeks. On-chain activity does not lead price. The day after a spike moves 0.97x to 0.99x a normal day, and lead-lag correlations before any move stay inside the 95% band for all three measures. Active-address spikes do coincide with 1.60x days, but that is the same day, before the figures are even complete: people transact because the price is moving. This also qualifies fig9. Over a whole UTC day, Fed decision days run at 0.98x and CPI days 1.16x, neither distinguishable from 1. The release hour doubles, but one hour is too small a share of a day to show at daily resolution, so the calendar is an intraday effect and belongs in the 1-6h model rather than a daily one. Market cap and MVRV are excluded: both are computed from the price. Co-Authored-By: Claud…f82fa6f